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SML Isuzu
BUY
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Volume Assumptions
(in units) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Buses 7,759 6,789 7,962 8,545 9,618
Expect 15% CAGR volume
% YoY 23.9% -12.5% 17.3% 7.3% 12.6%
growth for SML in FY16-19E
Trucks 3,692 5,408 6,380 7,793 9,402
as the company regains
% YoY 18.0% 46.5% 18.0% 22.2% 20.6%
market share in the school
bus segment and expanding Domestic volumes 11,451 12,197 14,342 16,338 19,020
its presence in the cargo % YoY 22.0% 6.5% 17.6% 13.9% 16.4%
segment Exports 370 503 490 489 522
% YoY -0.3% 35.9% -2.6% -0.2% 6.7%
Total sales 11,821 12,700 14,832 16,827 19,542
The companys existing range % YoY 21.1% 7.4% 16.8% 13.4% 16.1%
Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research
spans 5.5-12 tonners in cargo
and upto 16 tonnes in buses.
The long-term game plan is to
become a player in the 5.5-49
tonne range, with Isuzu will
provide technical inputs for
the above 12-tonne category
Peer Valuations
Mcap CMP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
Reco TP
(Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Maruti Suzuki 1,846 6,112 BUY 6,428 188.8 242.3 312.2 32.4 25.2 19.6 17.5 14.6 10.9 24.2 22.7 24.8
Tata Motors 1,730 510 BUY 573 37.7 54.8 55.5 13.5 9.3 9.2 6.8 5.4 3.3 14.8 18.4 15.9
Bajaj Auto 810 2,801 BUY 3,400 135.2 159.8 176.2 20.7 17.5 15.9 14.9 11.9 10.4 30.0 31.5 30.0
M&M 755 1,278 BUY 1,450 62.0 75.8 86.4 20.6 16.9 14.8 12.3 10.5 8.2 15.7 17.3 17.5
Hero Motocorp 653 3,269 BUY 3,704 162.2 187.4 213.2 20.2 17.4 15.3 14.2 11.1 9.8 34.9 38.8 37.8
Eicher Motors 651 24,013 BUY 28,603 624.3 804.9 1,010.0 38.5 29.8 23.8 28.4 22.3 17.8 36.4 34.2 33.9
Ashok Leyland 265 93 BUY 100 3.9 5.3 6.9 23.9 17.5 13.6 13.0 10.2 8.4 19.1 23.4 26.5
Force Motors 56 4,212 BUY 4,952 136.5 193.3 256.6 30.8 21.8 16.4 19.5 12.9 9.6 10.7 14.4 16.6
SML Isuzu 18 1,272 BUY 1,536 45.6 61.2 82.0 27.9 20.8 15.5 16.5 12.8 9.7 19.1 21.1 23.9
Atul Auto 9 428 BUY 507 19.2 26.2 31.1 22.3 16.3 13.8 13.6 9.5 7.9 23.1 28.5 27.7
Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Bus segment has risen by 25%
YoY and truck segment by
13% YoY
Product Mix Improved YoY Tonnage Mix Was Adverse On YoY Comparison
Total buses Total trucks HCV LCV
100% 100%
32 27 32
80% 37 80% 43 55
44 43 34 44 39 39 47
52 55 43 45 54
67 64
60% 60%
40% 40%
68 73 68
63 57 57
56 66 56 61 61 53
48 45 20% 57 55 46
20% 36
33 45
0% 0%
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: SIAM, HDFC se Inst Research
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
SML Isuzu TP
1,800 8-Feb-16 920 NEU 1,014
11-May-16 1,035 NEU 1,086
1,600
2-Sep-16 1,353 BUY 1,588
1,400 9-Nov-16 1,285 BUY 1,652
1,200 5-Dec-16 1,090 BUY 1,432
10-Feb-17 1,272 BUY 1,536
1,000
800
600 Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Feb-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Nov-16
Jun-16
May-16
Dec-16
Mar-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Apr-16
Jan-17
Jul-16
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
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SML ISUZU : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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