Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PEST Analysis of Ukraine PEST Analysis o PDF
PEST Analysis of Ukraine PEST Analysis o PDF
August, 2008
Historical preview
Ukraine declared itself independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, which was followed by the election
of President Leonid Kravchuk, a former Communist leader. His term was characterized by severe
economic decline and runaway inflation, while the privatization processes of the economy hardly
progressed. Furthermore, Leonid Kuchma, a Soviet-era industrial manager and Ukraines President
from 1994 to 2004, advocated close ties with Russia.
The 2004 Presidential election was characterized by widespread violations of democratic norms,
including government intimidation of the opposition and of independent media, abuse of state
administrative resources, highly skewed media coverage, and numerous provocations. The runoff
between Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko included illegal expulsion of opposition
representatives from election commissions, multiple voting by busloads of people, abuse of absentee
ballots, reports of coercion of votes in schools and prisons, and an abnormally high number of mobile
ballot box votes. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Kyiv and other cities to
protest electoral fraud and express support for Yushchenko, and conducted ongoing peaceful
demonstrations during what came to be known as the "Orange Revolution." In the following three
years no stable President/Prime Minister cooperation was formed; the elections were held in line with
1
international standards for democratic elections.
Ruling Party
The current President, Viktor Yushchenko, was elected in late 2004, which marked the end of the
Orange Revolution. The head of government, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, began her official
duties in December 2007. Her First Deputy Prime Minister is Oleksandr Turchynov, and the vice-
Prime Ministers are Ivan Vasyunyk and Hryhoriy Nemyrya. The current political structure of the
Parliament is the following: Party of Regions has 175 seats; Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc 156; Our
Ukraine Peoples Self Defense Bloc 72; Communist Party (CPU) 27; Lytvyn Bloc 20. The
President and the Prime Minister cooperate constructively and undertake reforms towards the Euro-
Atlantic integration. 2 However, in a recent report, Emerging Europe Monitor defined the relations
between the President and the Prime Minister as volatile due to some disagreements regarding the
governments policies.3
1
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3211.htm
2
http://ukraine.suite101.com/article.cfm/ukraine_government_profile
3
http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/65962/political-risk---fractious-relations.html
Ukraine maintains peaceful and constructive relations with all its neighbors; the country has
especially close ties with Poland and Russia. Relations with Russia are complicated as a result of
conflicting foreign policy priorities in the region concerning energy dependence, payment arrears, etc.
The government has declared Euro-Atlantic integration as its primary foreign policy objective. Ukraine
has signed The European Union's Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) and is included in
the European Neighborhood Policy. The EU and Ukraine are negotiating a "new enhanced
agreement," which could also incorporate a free trade agreement. Ukraine is part of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in EuropeOSCE and of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In
January 2008 Ukraine requested a NATO Membership Action Plan. Ukraine is a founding member of
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and of GUAM (Georgia-Ukraine-Azerbaijan-
Moldova).
Ukraine is a member of the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development),
International Monetary Fund, World Bank and since 2008 of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Currently, it does not receive IMF financing. The World Bank and EBRD provide loans and grants to
support the development of the country and the implementation of reforms for improvement of the
investment climate, public administration, financial management, and social inclusion.
VISAs
Ukraine has a visa-free regime with the countries from the CIS, including Russia and Belarus.
Furthermore, visa facilitation agreement with most EU countries was successfully completed. Its
completion has eased the procedures for issuing short stay visas for Ukrainian citizens. Such visa -
free regime has been established for citizens of the following countries: United States of America,
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal,
Principality of Andorra, Principality of Liechtenstein, Principality of Monaco, Republic of Iceland,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, The Holy See (State of the Vatican City), The Netherlands, The
Swiss Confederation, United Kingdom. Citizens of the above-mentioned countries do not need visas
to enter Ukraine or transit through its territory for the period of time of up to 90 days with a valid travel
passport. However, visas are required for citizens who enter Ukraine with the purpose of
employment, permanent residency, study and work at the diplomatic missions in Ukraine or with any
4
other purpose if they are going to stay in Ukraine for more than 90 days.
4
http://www.mfa.gov.ua/mfa/en/509.htm
Economics Factors
Ukraine is granted a market economy status by the EU and USA. The sharp economic decline in the
90s resulted in deteriorating living standards for most citizens and widespread poverty. During the
st
21 century, some positive economic growth has been realized. The macroeconomic characteristics
of the country are stable, with the hyperinflation of the early post-Soviet period gone. Ukraine's
currency, the hryvnia, was introduced in September 1996 and has remained relatively stable.
The country has a well-developed scientific and productive basis with good industrial potential. It
produces heavy machinery and special vehicles such as light and cargo vehicles, agrarian
techniques, diesel locomotives, lathes, equipment for Electric Power Plants, turbines, aviation and oil
refinery equipment. Ukraine is a powerful energy producer.
Ukraine's long-term economic development depends on the implementation of market reforms. The
government undertakes measures against corruption and towards the acceleration of the privatization
process. Still, much remains to be done to restructure and privatize key sectors such as energy and
telecommunications, to allow the free sale of farmland, and to improve the law enforcement.
Economic Growth
The unstable political situation in Ukraine hardly influences its economic development. GDP has been
growing steadily since 2005 at an average growth rate of 7% and industrial production has been
expanding by 12%.10 The per capita GDP, at Purchasing Power Parity, in 2007 amounted EUR 5800
which is an 11% increase compared to 2006.11 Ukraine`s GDP growth continued in 2008 - 6.4% until
May. The GDP is divided in the following composition by sectors Industry 32.3%, Agriculture 9.1%,
5
http://www.heritage.org/Index/country.cfm?id=Ukraine
6
http://info.worldbank.org/etools/wti2008/docs/brief197.pdf
7
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/issues/bilateral/countries/ukraine/pr160108_en.htm
8
http://ierpc.org/ierpc/memu/memu_93_jul_08_en.pdf
9
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/08/249&format=HTML&aged=1&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
10
http://www.investukraine.net/about/
11
http://www.wiiw.ac.at/e/ukraine.html
14
12.1
12
10
9.2 9.6 7.3
8
7.6
6
5.9 5.2
4
2.7
2
0
-0.2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
Inflation
Inflation is a major threat for the development of the Ukrainian economy. In May, consumer price
inflation reached 31%. Although it is somewhat driven by foods, the major blame should be put on
loose fiscal and monetary policies over the last few years.
12
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html
13
http://ierpc.org/ierpc/memu/memu_93_jul_08_en.pdf
14
http://ierpc.org/ierpc/memu/memu_93_jul_08_en.pdf
Interest Rates
In the face of rising inflation and credit growth, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its discount rate
by 200 basis points from 10% to 12% at the end of April. Since the end of 2007, the National Bank of
Ukraine has been making efforts to contain rapid money supply and credit growth. It tightened
reserve requirements and performed sizable sterilization operations. However, rising interest rates
while keeping the exchange rate pegged will likely encourage higher inflows of foreign capital
(especially on the back of widening international interest rate differentials due to the accommodative
monetary policy of the major world central banks).17
FDI
Foreign direct investments in Ukraine have made a rapid increase from 2006 to 2007 coming to 9.2
bn USD. The largest share of FDI to Ukraine came from Germany, Cyprus, Austria, Netherlands, UK,
USA and Russia and went mostly to the banking and construction sectors. In 2007 the leading
sectors in attraction of the FDI were production 27.6%, financial sector 16% and commerce 10%.
18
According to the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting the inflow of foreign direct
investment is expected to remain high in the following years, with the financial sector remaining the
key attractor of foreign capital.
15
http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/63739/ca-deficit-to-peak-in-2009.html
16
http://ierpc.org/ierpc/memu/memu_93_jul_08_en.pdf
17
http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-257999.html
18
http://www.in.gov.ua/index.php?lang=en&get=news&id=983
Figure 4. Ukraine Net Foreign Direct Investments in USD bn Trend (1999 2007 )19
25.00%
20.10%
20.00%
16.10% 16.00%
12.80%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 (Jan-May)
Economic Ratings
On 12 June 2008, S&P downgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency rating from "BB" to "B+".
According to the agency "The downgrade reflects the failure of authorities to put into place adequate
policy measures to counter rising inflation in Ukraine's overheating economy," The analysts state that
the current situation makes the banking and financial systems vulnerable which brings concerns
about a deteriorating economic environment.21
19
http://ierpc.org/ierpc/memu/memu_93_jul_08_en.pdf
20
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/gdn/ndn/ndn_e/arh_ndn2007_e.htm
21
http://uninews.unicredit.it/en/articles/page.php?id=9489
The number of banks licensed by the National Bank of Ukraine for effecting banking transactions as
of year end 2007 was 175. Ukraine is one of the fastest growing countries in Eastern Europe by
assets, loans, deposits and profitability of the banking sector. The bank deposits in the Ukrainian
banking sector are projected to grow at about 45.8% (in terms of national currency) during 2008-2012
and the bank loans - at 66%. Economic entities account for the majority of bank loans in Ukraine. It is
forecasted that total number of payment cards will reach over 95 Million by the end of 2010 at a
24
CAGR of 31%.
Growth in CIS countries, the main destination of Ukraine`s machine-building exports, drove a 44.4%
increase in machinery and transport exports. High world food prices stimulated export of food
products, edible oil, mill products, milk and dairy products (including eggs). Despite favorable export
performance, much faster growth in imports resulted in rapid deterioration of the foreign trade deficit.
25
22
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/05/14/afx5007255.html
23
http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Europe/Ukraine-OVERVIEW-OF-ECONOMY.html
24
http://researchreport.wordpress.com/2008/07/23/ukraine-banking-the-thriving-banking-industry-in-south-eastern-europe/
25
http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-257999.html
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 Rural
25000 Urban
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2
0
6
3
8
200
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
100%
90%
80%
70% 65 and more
60% 45-64
50% 25-44
40% 15-24
30% 0-14
20%
10%
0%
*
90
92
94
96
98
00
04
06
08
02
19
19
19
20
19
19
20
20
20
20
26
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/ds/nas_rik/nas_e/nas_rik_e.html
27
http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/67421/demographic-timebomb-the-calm-before-the-storm.html
28
http://www.indexmundi.com/ukraine/net_migration_rate.html
Households
According to information by the statistical institute of Ukraine, as of 2007, on average 81.1% of the
population income was spent on goods and services, 8.4% went into savings, and the rest - to other
expenses.30 In 2007, 29.3% of the population had an average per capita total income under the
subsistence minimum.31
The average size of a household is 2.6 people. The following table shows the exact distribution by
number of people.
Single
23.90% 24%
Tw o mem be rs
Three m embers
25% 27.10%
Four and more
mem bers
32
Figure 8. Ukraine Households by number of persons 2007
According to a study by UniCredit Bank, the home ownership rate is high and 63% of the Ukrainian
33
population lives in flats.
Environmental Issues
Ukraine has significant environmental problems, resulting from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant
disaster in 1986 as well as the industrial pollution. Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant was permanently
closed in 2000 and the necessary measures for radiation safety have been taken. The disaster has
29
http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/67421/demographic-timebomb-the-calm-before-the-storm.html
30
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2008/so_ek_r_u/soekru_u_e/2007_e/page_14.htm
31
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/gdvdg_rik/dvdg_e/duf2006_e.htm
32
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/gdvdg_rik/dvdg_e/Har2006_e.htm
33
http://en.unicredit.com.ua/view.releases/mode.view/id.265/
Technological Factors
IT Sector
The Internet usage in the country has increased dramatically during the last years. As reported in a
document of the communication branch, "Reorganisation of a telecommunication network,
introduction of new technologies, increase of level of solvency of the population promoted growth of
34
number of the Internet audience in Ukraine which as of 01.07.2008 totals about 10 million persons".
25.0%
21.6%
20.0%
15.0%
11.5%
10.0%
5.0%
0.4%
0.0%
2000 2006 2008
35
Figure 9. Ukraine Percent of Population Using Internet (2000-2008)
Past achievements of Ukraine in space and military production have left solid traditions of working
through complicated projects that are IT dependent. Higher education remains strong in the areas of
mathematics and theoretical physics, which rely heavily on IT-technologies. Recently the international
IT-majors have begun to realize the opportunity posed by opening full affiliates in Ukraine and
engaging them in their global and complicated projects.
According to a local software development company Infopulse, the Ukrainian offshore software
outsourcing industry has great potential for integration in the worldwide IT industry. The local IT-
industry serving domestic clients has dominant positions in systems integration, accounting software
and Web development. These local providers are also beginning to expand into the international
36
market. The majority of software development companies today are located in the capital city of
Kyiv.
34
http://fin-forex.com/in-ukraine-the-internet-use-10-million-persons/
35
http://www.internetworldstats.com/euro/ua.htm
36
http://www.infopulse.com.ua/About+the+company/About+Ukraine/default.aspx
R&D
Ukrainian companies have a strong advantage in R&D. It develops not only in the area of scientific
research, but also in the area of software development that requires creativity and strong skills in
adjacent domains. According to the Ukrainian Statistical Institute, 14.2% of all enterprises were
engaged in innovative activity and 11.5% introduced innovations during 2007.38
Ukrainian scientists have achieved world-class results in such fields as mathematics, physics,
computer sciences, engineering, biology, electric welding, new materials and space sciences. The
basis of the country's scientific and technological development is in the following branches of
Ukrainian economy: aircraft industry, shipbuilding, missile and tank engineering, bio-technologies,
radio-electronics, low temperatures physics, nuclear physics, communication and telecommunication.
The most acknowledged Universities in Ukraine are: National Polytechnic University of Ukraine (Kyiv
Polytechnic Institute), National Taras Shevchenko University, National Aviation University. 39
Government Participation
The Government is strongly encouraging innovations and technological development. The State
Agency of Ukraine for Investments and Innovation is the regulatory body responsible for the
implementation of the State innovation program. Technological Parks have been created on the
territory of the country, in which special treatment for investment and innovation activity is granted. It
includes introduction of tax benefits, and state support on implementation of investment and
innovation projects.40
37
http://www.gemius.com/pl/archives/2007-05-28/01
38
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/ni/iapp/iapp_e/iapp2007_e.htm
39
http://www.infopulse.com.ua/About+the+company/About+Ukraine/default.aspx
40
http://zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/anot.cgi?nreg=991-14