Truth, Errors, and Lies

Grzegorz W. Kolodko

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Arabic Language Translation Copyright O 2012 Kalimat Arabia.
Truth, Errors, and Lies: Politics and Economics in a Volatile World
This publication has been funded by the Book Institute, the O POLAND
Translation Program.
All rights reserved.
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 (1) See, for instance, Kazimierz Laski, "The Stabilization Plan for
Poland," Wirtschaftspolitische Blatter, 5 (1990), pp. 444-458. See also
Mario D. Nuti, Crisis, Reform, and Stabilization in Central Eastern Europe:
Prospects and Westem Response [in]La Grande Europa, la Nuova Europa:
Opportunita e Rischi (Siena: Monte dei Paschi di Siena, 1990). The author
of the present work has published extensively on this issue in scholarly
journals since 1989; see also a polernic with Jeffrey Sachs, who had
powerful influence on the Polish minister of finance and other high
government officials at the time: Grzegorz W. Kolodko, "Patient Is
Ready," The Warsaw Voice,Dec. 4, 1989.
(2) Carl Sagan, "The Fine Art of Baloney Detection," Parade, Feb. 1.
1987.
(3) Michael Shermer, W h y People Believe Weird Things:Pseudoscience,
Superstitions, and Other Confusionso f Our Time (NewYork: W.H. Freeman,
1997).
(4) Francis Wheen, How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World:A Short
History of Modem Delusions (London: Harper Perennial, 2004).
~
I
(5)Francis Fukuyarna, The End of History and the Last Man (New York:
Free Press, 1992).
(6) Isaac Getz and Alan G. Robinson, "Innovate or Die: Is That a Fact?"
Creativity and Innovation Management, 12, 3 (Sept. 2003), pp. 130-136.
www.blackwell- synergy.com.
(7)More on the great post-communist systemic changes see Grzegorz
W. Kolodko, From Shock to Therapy. The Political Economy o f Postsocialist
i

Transformation (Oxford-New York: Oxford University Press, 2000).

(8) The author of the present work joins with other authors in con-
sidering the lessons to be learned from the Polish transformation-what
worked and what didn't-and its applicability for other countries in the
process of complex systemic change in The Polish Miracle: Lessons for the
Emerging Markets (Burlington VT: Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005).
.. (9) Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York and
London: W.W. Norton, 2002).
(10)Robert Gwiazdowski, "Stiglitz: falszywy prorok" [Stiglitz-a false
prophet], Forbes [Polish edition], Dec. 2006, p. 144.
(11) Andrew Reynolds, introduction to Victor Erofeyev, Life with an
Idiot, trans. Andrew Reynolds (London: Penguin, 2004), pp. xx.
(12) Wislawa Szymborska, "List," translated by Stanislaw Barariczak
and Clare Cavanagh, Monologue o f a Dog (Orlando: Harcourt, 2006), pp.
83-87.
(13)JefpeyD. Sachs, The End of Poverty: How We Can Make It Happen
in Our Lifetime (New York: Penguin, 2005).
(14) Montaigne, I, 9.
(15) See, for instance, Paul Ekman, Telling Lies: Clues to Deceit in the
Marketplace, Marriage, and Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 1985), and
Chris Thurman, The Lies We Believe (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 1989).
(16) David Harvey, A Brief History of Neoliberalism (Oxford and New
York: Oxford University Press, 2005).
 (17) John R. Lott and Kevin A. Hassett, "Is Newspaper Coverage of
Economic Events Politically Biased?" Social Science Research Network,
2004, www.ssrn.com.
(18) Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin state that the KGB
managed to place no fewer than 1,980 articles in the Indian press in
1976, and 440 in the Pakistani press in 1977. These are only examples of
a form of information manipulation that was practiced universally and,
of course, by both sides during the Cold War. The World Was Going Our
Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World (New York: Basic Books,
2005).
(19) Janos Kornai, By Force o f Thought: Irregular Memoirs o f an
Intellectual Journey (Cambridge M A and London: MIT Press, 2006).
(20) World Bank, The State in a Changing World (Washington:
Oxford University Press, 1977); Janos Kornai, The Role o f the State in
a Post-Socialist Economy: Distinguished Lecture Series (Warsaw: Leon
Kozrninslu Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, 2001),
www.tiger.edu.pl; Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making Globalization Work (New
York-London: W. W. Norton & Co., 2007); Fukuyama, State-Building:
Governance and World Order in the 21st Century (Ithaca: Cornell
University Press, 2004).
(21) Wei-Bin Zhang, Economic Growth Theory: Capital, Knowledge,
and Economic Structures (Burlington VT: Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005);
Elhanan Helpman, The Mystery o f Economic Growth (Cambridge M A and
London: Harvard University Press, 2004). Mathematical formulas take
precedence over words and dominate the discourse in the former book;
the latter book, containing no formulas at all, represents one of the best
studies of the issues of economic growth.
(22) Albrecht Folsing, Albert Einstein: A Biography (New York: Pen-
guin, 1998),p. 457.
 (1)Jim Crace, The Pesthouse (London: Picador, 2007).
(2) Cormac McCarthy, The Road (New York: Vintage International,
2007).
(3) Tobias Buck reports in an FT article dated March 5, 2007 that
"The European Union's economic development is only now reaching the
level achieved by the US more than two decades ago. ...The US reached the
EU's current level of gross domestic product per capita in 1985, accordmg
to [a] report by Eurocharnbres, the pan-European business lobby." "EU
Economy Is 20 Years Behmd US, Says Study." http://www.ft.com/cms/
-
s/0/9ebc7f02-cb3e-1ldb-b436-000b5df1062l.ht1nl(accessed July 31,
2009).
"'
(4) The Fespaco (Festival Panafricain du Cinema et de la Television
de Ouagadougou) has been organized in Burkina Faso every two years
since 1969, and has become a cultural event of sigmficance for the whole
continent and an engine for the emergence of the young African cinema
onto the world scene. At the 20th anniversary festival in February-March
2007, the Nigerian film Ezra by Newton Aduaka won the grand prize, the
Yemeng Golden Mustang. The film recounts the fate of a boy soldier in
the Sierra Leone civil war, which has left the country one of the poorest
in the world, with a per capita GDP of about $900 by purchasing power
parity, which equated to a mere $200 at the exchange rate in 2007, enough
to pay for one night's stay at the best hotel in the war-ravaged country's
capital, Freetown.
(5) Louis Armstrong, Black and Blue in The Louis Armstrong Collec-
tion, vol. 2 (St. Laurent, Quebec: Excelsior-St. Clair Entertainment Group,
1995).
(6)Purchasing power parity, or PPP, is frequently used in international
comparisons. It takes account of the wide differentials in price structure
and level as a way of indicating the amount of goods and services that can
be purchased in the local currency. For instance, if the same representa-
tive "shopping basket" of consumer goods could be purchased in China
for 2 yuan as could be bought with $1.00 in the U.S., then one dollar would
be worth 2 yuan by PPP, rather than 8 yuan by the official exchange rate.
This example is close to reality, since the GDP of China calculated by PPP
is about four times higher than when it is calculated by the official ex-
change rate. The Chinese GDP is in fact equal to 78 percent of that of the
E.U., instead of 18 percent by the official exchange rate. In the case of
Poland, the ratio is about 1.5 to 1.
(7) "Fit at SO? A Special Report on the European Union," The
Economist, March 17,2007.
(8) William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun (Westminster, MA: Vintage
Books, 195I), Act I, Scene III.

(1) Zygmunt Bauman, Wasted Lives. Modernity and Its Outcasts, Polity
Press, London 2004.
(2)Although this book devotes very little space to alternative history,
it is worth consulting a collection of essays by leading western historians,
Robert Cowley (ed.), WhatIf? Eminent Historians Imagine WhatMight Have
Been (New York: Pumam, 2001).
(3) See Jacques Attali, 1492 (Paris: Fayard, 1991).
(4) Tango nu glos i orkiesrra [Tango for vocal and orchestra], words
and music by Grzegorz Tomczak, vocal by Maryla Rodowicz, Antologia 3
(Polygrarn Polska, 1996).
(5) The Queen's award of a knighthood to Salman Rushdie led to in-
ternational tensions, even between such allies as Pakistan and the U.S.
Rushdie is the author of the controversial The Satanic Verses (London:
Viking, 1988),which led to the subsequent fatwah by orthodox Islamists
calling for his death. The Iranian authorities lifted the fatwah in 1998,but
the affair flared up again when Rushdie reappeared on the international
scene, now as Sir Salman, in June 2007.
(6) See the survey of leading futurologists in Joseph F. Coates and
Jennifer Jarratt, What Futurists Believe (Bethesda: World Future Society,
1989).
(7) Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennia1 Perspective
(Paris: OECD, 2001). This is the most frequently cited study of estimated
output changes over the last 2,000 years. Maddison estimates per capita
GDP in Western Europe in 1,000 C.E. at about $400, which was $50 less
than a thousand years earlier. The estimate uses 1990 prices. If the inter-
vening inflation is taken into account, these values would be almost $710
and $800, respectively, at 2007 prices.
(8) Some people think that the inhabitants of India are "Indians,"who
are also sometimes erroneously referred to as "Hindus." Hindus, regard-
less of where they live, profess the world's oldest religion, Hinduism;there
are at least a billion of them.
(9) There were about 300 million people in the world in 1 C.E. and
about 310 million in 1000 C.E., according to estimates by John D. Durand,
Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation (Philadelphia:
University of Pennsylvania Population Studies Center, 1974), http://
www.indianngos.com/issue/population/statistics/statistics9.h~.
Maddison, World Economy, p. 28, estimates population growth in the
first millennium as about 16 percent (with an almost imperceptible
annual rate of 0.02 percent), from about 231 to 268 million. See also
Massirno Livi Bacci, A Concise History of World Population (Oxford U.K. -
Cambridge MA: Blackwell, 2006). Palmer C. Putnam, Energy in the Future
(London: Macrnillan, 1954) estimates world population at 275 million in
1 C.E., 295 million in 1000 C.E., and 300 million only in 1200 C.E.
(10) Our great-great-great-great-grandfather is our grandfather's
grandfather's grandfather, and our great-great-great-great-grandson is
our grandson's grandson's grandson.
(11) Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash o f Civilizations and the
Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998).
(12) The indicator for economic growth, in conformity with the
methodology and nomenclature used in International Monetary Fund
statistics includes 15 European countries: Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech
Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Malta,
Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey. Malta and Turkey are
usually not considered to be part of "East-Central Europe." On the other
hand, it does not include the European members of the post-Soviet
CIS-Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine-despite the fact that these countries
are clearly part of East-Central Europe.
(13) In these estimates, "Western Europe" means the 12 of the 15
highly developed old members of the E.U. that belong to the eurozone.
This excludes E.U. members Britain, Sweden, and Denmark, as well as
Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the statistically insignificant Andorra,
Liechtenstein, Monaco, and San Marino. This does not affect the statistical
picture, since these countries have GDP rates similar to those of the E.U.
members. From 1998 to 2007, the rate of GDP growth in Britain, at 2.4
percent, was 0.6 higher than in the eurozone according at the exchange
rate. This means that the GDP growth in Western Europe as a whole was
about 0.1 percent higher.
(14) See Michael Shermer, "The Chaos of History: On a Chaotic Model
that Represents the Role of Contingency and Necessity in Historical Se-
quences," Nonlinear Science, 4, 1993, pp. 1-13.
 (15) On the meanderings of economic development in Eastern Eu-
rope as compared to Western Europe, see Ivan Berend, History Derailed:
Central and Eastern Europe in the '2ong" 19th Century (Berkeley-Los
Angeles: University of California Press, 1997), and An Economic History
of Twentieth-Century Europe: Economic Regimes from Laissez-faire to
Globalization (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
(16) These data are expressed in purchasing power parity at 2007
prices, assuming that they are about 75 percent higher than the 1990
prices used by Maddison. Data for the quartile groups based on Maddison,
The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris: OECD, 2003). See also the
estimates in 1990 prices made by the International Monetary Fund, World
Economic Outlook (Washington, 2000).
(17) This is the title of the lovely book by Lapierre, which served as
the basis for the later, less-than-lovely film adaptation. A major char-
acter in the book is a Catholic priest from Poland, Stephan Kovalski, but
his place is taken in the film by an American nurse, and not because of
some possible association with Mother Teresa, but rather for commercial
reasons. Dominique Lapierre, The City o f Joy (New York: Warner Books,
1985);the 1995 film is directed by Roland Joffe.
(18) So it has been at least since the publication in 1776 of Adam
Smith's An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
(19) See David S. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty o f Nations: Why
Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor (New York: W. W. Norton, 1998).

(1) As pointed out by Vincent Cable, Globalization and Global

Governance (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1999).
(2) David W. Pearce, ed., The MTT Dictionary of Modem Economics
(Cambridge,MA: ha Press, 1992).
 (3) V. I. Lenin, Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism, www.
marxists.org.
(4) Kwame Nkrumah, Neo-Colonialism: The Last Stage o f Imperialism
(London: Thomas Nelson & Sons, 1965).
(5)It should be "goods and services,"not "merchandiseand services."
Merchandise is the product of human labor intended for exchange (sale),
and can be either a good (material)or a service. Therefore, "merchandise
and services" is a tautology, since it literally means "goods and services
and services."
(6) Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Manifest der Kommunistischen
Partei (London, 1848),the "Communist Manifesto," was first published in
German. www.marxists.org
(7) See Federico Mayor et al., The World Ahead: Our Future in the
Making (London: Zed, 2001), p. 136.
(8) Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the
Twenty-First Century (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).
(9) For the functioning of the global financial market, its impact on
the real economy, and the benefits and risks of the globalization of fi-
nance, see Financial Globalization: The Impact on Trade, Policy, Labor,
and Capital Flows (Washington:International Monetary Fund, 2007).
(10) See Andrews and Mitrokhin, op. cit.
(11) Globalization, Growth and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World
Economy (Washington:World Bank, 2002).
(12) On the relationship between globalization and the post-socialist
transformation, see Grzegorz W. Kolodko, The World Economy and Great
Post-Communist Change (New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2006); and
Saul Estrin, Grzegorz W. Kolodko, and Milica Uvalic (eds.), Transition and
Beyond (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
 (13) Lester C-Thurow, The Future of Capitalism: How Today's
Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World (New York: William Morrow,
1996),p. 115.
(14) World Economic Outlook: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global
Economy (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2007), and
especially chapter 5, "The Globalization of Labor," pp. 161-192.
(15) Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making Globalization Work (New York-London:
W. W. Norton & Co., 2007).
(16) Jeffrey Frieden, Will Global Capitalism Fall Again? [in:]Bruegel
Essay and Lecture Series, June 2006.
(17) John Man, Genghis Khan: Life, Death, and Resurrection (London:
Bantam Books, 2004).
(18) Jung Chang and John Halliday, Mao: The Unknown Story (London:
Jonathan Cape, 2005), especially chapter 5, "Maoism Goes Global," pp.
478-489.
(19)The CFA franc is used in 14 countries, including 12 former French
colonies, as well as Guinea Bissau (formerly Portuguese) and Equitorial
Guinea (formerly Spanish). The total population of the zone is about 120
million. The CFA was pegged first to the franc and, since 1999, to the euro
at 1 to 655.957. In fact, there are two separate legal tenders at this peg,
the West African franc (XAF) in Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Mali,
Niger, Senegal,Togo, and Cote d91voire,and the Central African franc (XOF)
in Chad, Gabon, Equitorial Guinea, Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, and the
Central African Republic.
(20) The East Caribbean dollar (XCI) has been used since 1965 in the
eight OECS countries with their population of 600 thousand, plus Angdla
and Montserrat. The British Virgin Islands, an OECS country, uses the U.S.
dollar. The XCI is pegged at $1US to 2.7 EC$.
 (21)Of the 27 E.U. member states, 16 belong to the Eurozone: Austria,
Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Lux-
embourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
Slovakia and Slovenia are the only two post-socialist countries in the
group. The 16 countries have a total of some 330 million residents. All
the other E.U. members states are under an obligation to join the Euro-
zone upon meeting the strict fiscal and monetary convergence criteria
set by the Treaty of Maastricht. The only exceptions are Denmark and the
U.K., which negotiated opt-out agreements. Aside from the CFA, the ex-
change rates of at least six currencies,including the Pacific franc (XPF),are
pegged directly to the euro, and eight others have pegged floats (meaning
that their values can fluctuate w i t h fixed bands in relation to that of the
euro) www.ecb.int.
(22) Robert A. Mundell. International Economics, (New York: Macmil-
lan, 1968), and especially chapter 12, "A Theory of Optimum Currency
Areas," pp. 117-186; www.columbia.edu.
(23) Robert A. Mundell, The International Financial Architecture.
The Euro Zone and Its Enlargement In Eastern Europe, [in] Distinguished
Lectures Series, (Warsaw: Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship
and Management (WSPiZ), 2000), www.tiger.edu.pl; One World Economy,
One Global Currency? [in] Distinguished Lectures Series, (Warsaw: Leon
Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management (WSPiZ),
2003), www.tiger.edu.pl.
(24) There is no shortage of either apologists or critics. The apolo-
gists include Johan Norberg, In Defenseof Global Capitalism (Washing-
ton: Cato Institute, 2003); Martin Wolf, Why Globalization Works (New
Haven-London: Yale University Press, 2004);Jagdish Bhagwati, In Defense
o f Globalization (NewYork: Oxford University Press, 2004). As for the crit-
ics, see Will Hutton and Anthony Giddens (eds.), Global Capitalism (New
York: The New Press, 2000); Naomi Klein, No Logo. Taking Aim at the
Brand Bullies (London:Harper Collins, 2001);Manfred B. Steger, Globalism.
The New Market Ideology (Lanham, Boulder, New York, and Oxford: Row-
man Littlefield, 2002); and Joseph E. Stiglitz, op. cit. The controversy has
also elicited contributions by Polish economists, sociologists, political
scientists, and philosophers. The author of the present work has joined
this debate on numerous occasions, both in works published in Polish
and in those that have appeared in English, including Emerging Market
Economies. Globalization and Development (Aldershot UK and Burlington
VT: Ashgate, 2003), which focuses on the positive implications for devel-
opment, and Grzegorz W. Kolodko (ed.), Globalization and Social Stress
(Nova Science Publishers, New York 2005), which examines the downside.

(1) On the staggering scale of Diirer's contribution to art, see Paul

Johnson, Creators (New York: Harper Collins, 2006).
(2)For additional remarks on the methodology and calculation of data
related to disparities in income distribution around the world, see Bob
Sutcliffe, "Postscript to the Article World Inequality and Globalization,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Spring 2004, siteresources.wor1dbank.
org.
(3) On the methodology used to construct the Human Development
Index, as well as the full figures and the components of them for in-
dividual countries, see World Development Indicators 07 (Washington:
The World Bank, 2007) and Development and the Next Generation: World
Development Report (Washington: The World Bank, 2007).
(4) See World Health Organization, The World Health Report 2007. A
Safer Future: Global Public Health Security in the 21st Century (Geneva:
WHO Press, 2007), http:/ /www.who.int/whr/ 2007/en/inde~.html.
 (5) Armartya Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A.
Knopf, 2000).
(6) Freedom House provides methodological explanations and de-
tailed data at its website, www.freedomhouse.org.
(7) Similarly, the Heritage Foundation features detailed information
at www.heritage.org.
(8)Bj~lrnLomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real
State of the World (Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2001).
(9) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Current State and Trends
(Chicago: Island Press, ZOOS), www.rnillenniumassessment.org.
(10) www.cia.gov.
(11) Official reserve assets at the end of January 2008 were 46.2
billion, equal to $68.6 or 167.8 billion Polish zloty.
(12)Parikshit K. Basu, "Financial Globalisation and National Economic
Sustainability," Global Economic Quarterly, 3 (2002),2, pp. 145- 162; Di-
pak Dasgupta, Marc Uzan, and Dominic Wilson, eds., Capital Flows Without
Crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability (London and
New York: Routledge, 2001).

(1)Among those proclaiming this view is the 2004 Nobel Prize winner
Edward C. Prescott, in his "Nobel Lecture: The transformation of Macroe-
conomic Policy and Research," Journal of Political Economy, 114 (2006),2,
pp. 203-235.
(2) U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Ian MacLeod (Conservative)
introduced the concept into the political and economic idiom as early as
1965, but it rose to prominence later, in the 1970s,, when the analysis
of the stagflation process served as the basis for Gottfried Haberler's
economic theory. See Economic Growth and Stability: An Analysis of
Economic Change and Policies (Los Angeles: Nash Publishing, 1974),
and The Problem of Stagflation: Reflection on the Microfoundation of
Macroeconomic Theory and Policy (Washington: American Enterprise
Institute for Public Policy Research, 1985).
(3)J h o s Kornai, Economics of Shortage (Amsterdam: North-Holland,
1980).
(4) Grzegorz W. Kolodko and Walter McMahon, "Stagflation and
Shortageflation: A Comparative Approach," Kylos, 40 (1987), 2, pp.
176-197.
(5) One of the most famous curves in the history of economic thought,
the Phillips curve, illustrating the inflation/unemployment relation, was
sprung upon the world by the New Zealand-born economist Alban W.
Phillips in an article published in a British journal in 1958: "The Relation-
ship Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in
the United Kingdom in 1861-1957," Economics, 2 5 (1001, pp. 282-299.
(6)Edmund S. Phelps, InflationPolicy and Unemployment Theory (New
York: W.W. Norton, 1972). The announcement of the award of the Nobel
Prize emphasized the fact that Phelps's work had led to a deeper un-
derstanding of the relationship between short- and long-term economic
policy; Phelps also wrote about optimizing the distribution of national in-
come (global output) and capital accumulation (the so-called golden rule
of accumulation).
(7) David Harvey, A Brief History of Neoliberalism (New York: Oxford
University Press, 20051, pp. 62-63.
(8) Views in favor of or opposed to the "Washington Consensus"
are surveyed in Grzegorz W. Kolodko, Post-Communist Transition and
Post-Washington Consensus: The Lessons for Policy Reforms, [in] Mario I
Blejer and Marko Skteb, eds., Transition: The First Decade (Cambridge MA
and London: MIT Press, 2001), pp. 45-83. Joseph E. Stiglitz subjects the
Consensus to a thoroughgoing critique in Making Globalization Work (New
York and London: W.W. Norton, 2007).
(9) John Williamson coined the term "Washmgton Consensus" in
the late 1980s. For the theoretical underpinnings and the interpreta-
tion of this concept in economic policy, as well as an interpretation of
these interpretations by the man who invented the term, see his Differing
Interpretations of the Washington Consensus [in]Distinguished Lectures
Series No. 17, (Warsaw: Leon KozminskiAcademy of Entrepreneurshipand
Management [WSPiZ], 2005), www.tiger.edu.pl.
(10)On the basis of his own experience, John Perkins writes about the
deliberate forcing of poor countries into the debt trap and the methods
used along the way in Confessionsof an Economic Hit Man (San Francisco:
Berrett-Koehler, 2004).
(11) There is already an extensive literature on the issue, including
Olivier Blanchard, The Economics of Post-Communist Transition (New
York: Oxford University Press, 1997); Marie Lavigne, The Economics
of Transition: From Socialist Economy to Market Economy (Chatham,
Kent: Macmillan Press, 1995);Kazimierz Poznhski, Poland's Protracted
Transition: Institutional Change and Economic Growth (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 1995); and Vladirnir Popov, Shock Therapy
versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies
after 15 Years of Reforms, nGER Working Paper Series 82 (Warsaw:
Leon Kozminski Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, 2006),
www.tiger.edu.pl.
(12) Professor Kazimierz Laski of the Vienna Institute for In-
ternational Economic Research ( W I N ) issued a particularly chilling
critique of "shock therapy" in "The Stabilization Plan for Poland,"
Wirtschaftspolitische Blatter, 5 (1990, pp. 444-458), where he warned
that industrial production would fall by 25 percent in the first year,
1990, causing mass unemployment. Unfortunately, he was right.
(13) Then, after the successful implementation of the program known
as "Strategy for Poland", the author of this book for the first time had
stepped down from the Polish government. He was deputy prime minister
and minister of finance in four governments in 1994-97 and 2002-03.
(14) The Dutch researcher Donald Kalff, who also has real-world
business experience, dispels the idea that the American model of cap-
italism and management offers any sort of qualitative advantages and
considers the implications of this fact for competitiveness and the growth
of production in An OnAmerican Business: The Rise of the New European
Enterprise Model (London: Kogan Page, 2005).
(15) For the negative impact of excessively unequal income distribu-
tion on the rate of economic growth, see Vito Tanzi, Ke-Young Chu, and
Sanjeev Gupta, eds., Economic Policy and Inequality (Washington: Inter-
national Monetary Fund, 1999).
(16) Bernt Bratsberg et. al., Non-lineanties in Inter-generational
Earnings Mobility (London: Royal Economics Society, 2006); American
Exceptionalism in a New Light (Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor,
2006).
(17) For the results of this Gallup poll, see "Testing Muslim Views: If
You Want My Opinion," The Economist, March 10, 2007, p. 63.
(18)I reflected on tensions in relations between the U.S. and Iran in a
two-part article, "Triggering the Next Iranian Revolution," The Globalist,
March 14 (part one) and March 15 (part two), 2007. www.theglobalist.com.
(19) Results of a representative survey conducted by the BBC. See
"Latin America and the United States: Spring Break," The Economist, March
3, 2007, p. 49.
(20) Francis Fukuyama expresses some impassioned views on
this subject in America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the
Neoconservative Legacy (New Haven and London: Yale University Press,
2006). See also the comparative analysis of the presidencies of George H.
W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush in Zbigniew Brzezinski, Second
Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower (New
York: Basic Books, 2007).
(21) At the end of 2007, the World Bank shocked and astonished
a good many people by revising its previous estimates downward and
announcing that the Chinese GDP, by purchasing power parity, was
no less than 40 percent lower than previously estimated. This would
mean that it hovered in the region of 6 trillion dollars, rather than
10 trillion. The GDP of India was "marked down" on an even greater
scale, which meant that it was not slightly larger than that of Japan,
but rather about half as large. This radical rewriting of the estimates
did not cast the authors in the best light. How could they have been so
wrong? And how could we know that they hadn't gotten it wrong again?
Understandably, GDP according to PPP will always be an approldmation,
at best. Taking into account all the methodological reservations, I have
decided to stick to the original estimates, which seem to reflect reality
more accwately.
(22)With fertility rates so high in these extremely poor countries (GDP
per capita in Niger and Mali amounted to $1,000 and $1,200, respectively,
by PPP in 2007),infant mortality below the age of five is 249 per thousand
in Niger and 219 per thousand in Mali. By comparison,it is 3 1in China and
4 in the most highly developed countries-Finland, Japan, and Sweden. In
Poland, it is 8. See Development and the Next Generation (Washington:
World Bank, 2006), pp. 292-293.
(23) Brzezinski, op. cit., p. 64.
(24) David Sater, "The Rise of the Russian Criminal State," Prism,
Sept. 4, 1998; Janine R. Wedel, Collision and Collusion: The Strange Case

0-9
 I of WesternAid to Eastern Europe 1989-1998 (New York: St. Martin's Press,
1998), and "The Harvard Boys Do Russia," The Nation, June 1, 1998, pp.
11-16.
(25) I published extensively on the subject at the time, even in the
1
New York Times ("Russia Should Put Its People First," July 7, 1998), The
I
Economist ("Don't Abandon Russia," Feb. 27, 1999),and the World Bank's
I
, new research series ("Ten Years of Post-socialist Transition: The Lessons
for Policy Reforms," Policy Research Working Paper 2095, April 1999).See
also my long ??CAHNGE for: major?? book From Shock to Therapyr The
Political Economy o f Postsocialist Transformation (Oxford and New York:
I
i Oxford University Press, 2000). Earmath's plea nevertheless remains rel-
I evant, since the n t h has not yet come out decisively on top-if it ever
II will.
(26) See "The Challenger," The Economist, Dec. 11, 2004.
(27) Peter Mandelson quoted in a story on the BBC News website:
I
"EU-Russia Relations 'At Low Ebb,"' April 20, 2007, news.bbc.co.uk.
(28) Cf. the 2007 CIA World Factbook (Washington: Central Intelli-
gence Agency), www.cia.gov.
(29) Justin Yifu Lin,appointed Chief Economist and Senior Vice Pres-
ident of the World Bank in 2008, is also a member of the Academic Board
of the TIGER Reserarch Center, where he has visited and lectured. See
Lessons of China's Transition from a Planned to a Market Economy [in]
Distinguished Lectures Series No. 16, (Warsaw: Leon Kozrninski Academy
of Entrepreneurship and Management [WSPiZ]),available at www-tiger.
edu.pl.
(30) See Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, "The Growth of Govern-
ment and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries," lMF Working
Papers 951130 (1995).
 (1)See Nic Marks, Saamah Abdallah, Andrew Simrns, and Sam Thomp-
son, The Happy Planet Index (London: New Economics Foundation, 2006).
Richard Layard also writes about the category of happiness as perceived
from the economic perspective in Happiness: Lessons from a New Science
(London: Penguin, 2006).

(2) Press release: "University of Leicester Produces the First Ever

World Map of Happiness: Happiness Is Being Healthy, Wealthy and Wise,"
www2.le.ac.uk; Adrian White, "World Map of Happiness," Psych Talk,
March 2007.
(3) A mathematical formula for calculating the degree of the hu-
man poverty gap can be found in the study Indicators for Monitoring
the Millennium Development Goals: Definitions, Rationale, Concepts, and
Sources (New York: United Nations, 2003), p. 9; mdgs.un.org.
(4) Development Goals Report 2007: Statistical Annex (New
York: United Nations, 2007). The relevant information is available at
mdgs.un.org.
(5) Questioning the assumption about diminishing returns from cap-
ital, Paul Romer, in particular, contributed to creating and developing
an endogenous model of economic growth. See his "Increasing Returns
and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, 94 (1986), 5, pp.
1002-1037.
(6) See Robert E. Lucas, "On the Mechanics of Economic Develop-
ment," Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1988). 1,pp. 3-42.

(7) See George Mavrotas and Anthony Shorrocks, eds., Advancing

Development: Core Themes in Global Economics (New York: Palgrave
MacmiUan, 20071, a daunting tome (803 pages) rich in a variety of themes
relevant to contemporary development economics, and containing as its
Chapter 28 my text, Institutions, Policies, and Economic Development, pp.
531-554.

(1)John Seabrook, "Sowing for Democracy," The New Yorker, Aug. 27,
2007.
(2) Statistical data cited in "Caught in the Middle, As Usual," The
Economist, Nov. 12, 2005, p. 49.
(3) See Andres Aslund, How Russia Became a Market Economy (Wash-
ington: The Brookings Institution, 1995).
(4) See Max Weber, The Protestant Ethic and the "Spirit" of Capitalism,
translated and with an introduction and additional selections by Peter
Baehr and Gordon C. Wells (New York: Pengiun, 2002).
(5) The 1996 film explains more about the essence of economic pop-
ulism, and not only in its Peronist variant, than some scholarly studies of
the subject.
(6) Elhanan Helpman writes about the meanderings of economic
growth and the complexities of its interpretation in a work that is both
interesting and accessible to an exceptional degree, the aptly titled The
Mystery of Economic Growth (Oxford and New York: Harvard University
Press, 2004).

(1) Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology

Revolution (New York Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2002), p. 66
(2) Dani Rodrik, Let a Thousand Growth Models Bloom, www.project-
syndicate.org; Rethinking Growth Strategies [in] W D E R Perspectives on
Global Development [Houndmills, Hampshire, and New York: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2005), pp. 201-223.

(1) See National Intelligence Council, Mapping the Global Future:

Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project. Based
on Consultations with Nongovernmental Experts around the World
(Washington, Nov. 2004), www.foia.cia.gov.net.
(2) William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists'
Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (Cambridge M A and London:
MlT Press, 2002); The White Man's Burden: Why the 'West'sEfforts to Aid
the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (New York: Penguin
Press, 2006).
(3) Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are
Failing and What Can Be Done About It (Oxford and New York: Oxford
University Press, 2007).
(4) Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, "How Much Is a Seat on the
Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations,"
Journal of Political Economy, 114 (2006),3, pp. 413-451.
(5) The members of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Na-
tions, are Burma (Myanmar),Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
(6) All but one of the former Soviet Republics are in the loosely-
affiliated CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States),with the exception
of the three Baltic States-Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania-that have joined
the E.U. Georgia has left the grouping after recent military conflict with
Russia. The members of the CIS are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kaza-
khstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine,
and Uzbekistan.
 (7) The member states of Mercosur are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay,
Uruguay, and Venezuela. The affiliated members of the associated free-
trade zone are Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.
(8) The members of NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agree-
ment, are Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
(9) The Southern African Development Community has 15 members:
Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Mada-
gascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, The Seychelles, South
Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
(10) The members of ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West
African States, are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana,
Guinee, Guinee Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,
Sierra Leone, and Togo.
(11) In 2007, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pak-
istan, and Sri Lanka were joined as members of SAARC (The South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation)by Afghanistan.
(12) The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
(CCASG), usually referred to as the Gulf Cooperation Council, groups
together Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United
Arab Emirates.
(13) The member states of the E.U. are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, the
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Swe-
den, and the United Kingdom. Croatia and Turkey, negotiating their ac-
cession, have associated status.
(14) See Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios (Chicago: Is-
land Press, 2005), www.rnillenniumassessment.org.
(15) Thirty years after the first, best-known work on the resource-
related limits to growth, we have a new work by the redoubtable authorial
team of Donelli H. Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jorgen Andrews, The
Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update(London and Sterling VA: Earthscan,
2004).
(16) See General Accountability Office, U.S. Congress, Uncertainty
about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for
Addressing a Peak and Decline in oil Production (GAO-07-283), Feb. 2007.
(17) The cynicism and moral turpitude of the donors of "economic
aid" to the poorest countries form the subject of a provocative and highly
concrete book by Graham Hancock, Lords o f Poverty (Nairobi: Camerapix
Publishers International, 2004).
(18) Orhan Pamuk, Snow (New York: Knopf, 2004) pp 240.
(19) David Edgerton, The Shock o f the Old: Technology and Global
History since 1900 (London: Profile Books, 2006).
(20) Fukuyama, op. cit., p. 9- 10.
(21)See "A World of Connections:A Special Report on Telecoms," The
Economist, April 28, 2007.
(22) Jack Hirshleifer writes about ways of overcoming the economic
consequences of thermonuclear war in Economic Behavior in Adversity
(Brighton:Wheatsheaf Books, 1987).
(23) In 2001, John E. Bortle, the retired fire chief of Westchester, New
York, proposed a system for measuring the darkness of the night sky
on a scale of one to nine, which has gained acceptance among amateur
astronomers. Bortle is a columnist for Sky & Telescope magazine, www.
shopatsky.com.
(24) See Mark Abley, Spoken Here: Travels among Threatened
Languages (Montreal: Vintage Canada, 2004).