Deregulation

Genco
Transco
Disco
Independent system operator (ISO)
Regional transmission operator (RTO)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
Some Numbers
1/6 barrel of oil = 1 million BTU
1 BTU = 0.293071 watt hours
1 kWh = 3413 BTU
Average heat content as measured by actual use in 2009: COAL 20.1 Mbtu/ton; OIL 6.1 Mbtu/bbl;
NATURAL GAS 1.03 Mbtu/1000 ft3
Example: If the total production in the US is 4064 terawatt-hours annually, what is the fuel cost
annually using coal at 41 $ per metric ton?
(4064 TWh/y) (1 kWh/103 Wh) (104 Btu of coal/ kWh) (1 kg coal /31900 Btu) (1 metric ton/103 kg)
(41 $/metric ton) = about 52.5 billion US dollars per year
Reserve margin for systems with wind generation
A reserve margin is available generators that are ready to generate on short notice (e.g., a few
seconds to a few minutes). A discussion of the reserve margin calculation for conventional systems,
and also for systems with wind energy will appear later in the semester.
Ramp rates must be specified. These are verified periodically by the Independent System Operator
(ISO).
Reserve generation sold to the independent system operator as an ancillary service
How do you set the reserve margin requirement for a system with wind generation? Traditionally, this
is not an issue since wind penetration is very low (e.g., < 1%), but what happens if wind energy is in
the 20% range or more?
Wind generation: Betz law
Betz law is an expression that gives the maximum power generated by a wind turbine Based on basic
physics: power = d(energy)/dt, and kinetic energy in the wind is (1/2)mv2

Where, S is the area of the turbine, is the air density, v1 is upstream velocity, v2 is downstream
velocity. The basis of this is Bernoullis laws of fluid dynamics.
Then take the derivative of P with respect to (v2/v1) and set the derivative to zero to find the maximum
P. When this is done, find v2/v1 = 1/3 and

Example Assuming that wind speed increases linearly with altitude above ground level (AGL) as v
= 15 +0.9a meters/s (a = AGL distance in m), compare the heights of a wind turbine to obtain a 10%
increase in maximum power output. Assume for this example that the original turbine is 20 m AGL.

Let a = 20 and solve for a = 1.181 m, therefore a + a = 21.181 m. In this case, a 1.181/20 =
5.9% increase in tower height gives an increase of 10% in max power of the wind turbine.
Example The maximum power generated by a wind farm is forecast utilizing wind forecasts. For
every one percent error in wind forecasts, what is the percent error in maximum power generated?
Solution

Gather the constant coefficients ahead of v3, and note that (v (1+0.01))3 v3 +3v3 (0.01)). Therefore,
expect 3% deviation in Pmax for every 1% deviation in forecast wind speed.
Two Essential Reliability Issues
1) To maintain the required supply demand balance at all times
Availability of a sufficient amount of generation
Improved with the pooling of resources inherent in RECI
Requires a suitable amount of reserve capacity (determined using more or less sophisticated
methods)
Sufficient capacity of interconnection links
For the needed transfers of power between interconnected systems
2) To maintain synchronous operation throughout the interconnected grid in the event of a sudden
disturbance
A critical reliability issue in a RECI context
Potentially deteriorated
 Far-reaching effects of a larger number of potential faults
Possible large power transfers over long distances
Efficient fast-acting automatic systems
To maintain continuity of service
To prevent catastrophic events
Total system collapse
Damage to equipment
Economic Dispatch Limits
Factors that affect and dictate grid constraints:
Generation and transmission facility conditions and availability
Examples: whether a unit or line is out of service for maintenance or must operate under reduced
limits
Line capacities under different power flows and loading
Thermal limitations transmission and distribution wires have limited capacity; heat can cause
damage and excess sag.
Angular Stability disturbances on the system (switching, contingencies, etc) may cause the
system to become unstable and lose synchronism
Voltage Stability high demand/loading on transmission can, with insufficient reactive power
compensation, cause voltages to become unstable and difficult to control
The availability and capabilities of other grid facilities to buffer and manage line loadings and
voltages
Examples: circuit breakers, series or shunt reactive devices, transformers, and other equipment and
protection schemes
The main steps in power system planning may be summarized as follows:
(a) Study of the electric load forecast 5 to 30 years into the future, based on the most reliable
information.
(b) Evaluation of the energy resources available in the future for electricity generation and the
foreseeable trends in technical and economic developments.
(c) Evaluation of the economic and technical characteristics of the existing system of generating units
and of the plants that are considered as potential units for system expansion. These characteristics
include capital investment cost, fuel cost, operation and maintenance costs, efficiencies,
construction times, etc.
(d) Determination of technical and cost characteristics of the plants available for expansion.
(e) Determination of the economic and technical parameters affecting decisions such as discount rate,
level or reliability required from the generating system, etc.
(f) Choice of a procedure to determine the optimal expansion strategy within the imposed constraints
(g) Qualitative review of the results to estimate the viability of the proposed solution.
Let us assume that our task is to decide on the subjects given above for 20152020. If the peak
loading conditions are to be investigated, the studies involve six loading conditions. One way is to,
study each year separately irrespective of the other years. This type of study is referred to as static
planning which focuses on planning for a single stage. The other is to focus on all six stages,
simultaneously, so that the solution is found for all six stages at the same time. This type of study is
named as dynamic planning.
Obviously, although the static planning for a specific year provides some useful information for that
year, the process as given above leads to impractical results for the period as the solutions for a year
cannot be independent from the solution from the preceding years. One way to solve the problem is to
include the results of each year in the studies for the following year. This may be referred to as semi-
static, semi-dynamic, quasi-static or quasi-dynamic planning. It is apparent that the dynamic planning
solution can be more optimal in comparison with the semi-static planning solution.
There is no golden rule in specifying short-term or long-term planning issues. Normally, <1 year falls
into the operational planning and operational issues in which the aim is typically to manage and
operate available resources in an efficient manner. More than that falls into the planning stages.

If installing new equipment and predicting system behavior are possible in a shorter time (for instance,
for distribution systems, 13 years), the term of short-term planning may be used. More than that (3
10 years and even higher) is called long-term planning (typically transmission planning) in which
predicting the system behavior is possible for these longer periods.
The focus of LTLF is to forecast the annual peak demand for capacity as well as network planning,
since peak load most strongly impacts capacity requirements.
The most common means of measuring the accuracy of LF is by measuring the either the mean
absolute deviation or the standard deviation of the forecast error.
The first crucial step for any planning study is to predict the consumption for the study period (say
20172030), as all subsequent studies will be based on that, referred to as load forecasting. It is
understood that a short-term load forecasting, used for operational studies, is significantly different
from the long-term one used in planning studies.

After predicting the load, the next step is to determine the generation requirements to satisfy the load.
An obvious simple solution is to assume a generation increase equal to load increase. If, for instance,
in year 2015, the peak load would be 40,000 MW and at that time, the available generation is 35,000
MW, an extra generation of 5,000 MW would be required. Unfortunately, the solution is not so simple
at all. Some obvious reasons are
What types of power plants do we have to install (thermal, gas turbine, nuclear, etc.)?
Where do we have to install the power plants (distributed among 5 specific buses, 10 specific
buses, etc.)?
What capacities do we have to install (5 9 1000 MW, or 2 9 1000 MW and 6 9 500 MW, or )?
As there may be an outage on a power plant (either existing or new), should we install extra
generations to account for these situations? If yes, what, where and how?

Once the load is predicted and the generation requirements are known, the next step is to
determine the substation requirements, both, in terms of
Expanding the existing ones,
Installing some new ones.
This is referred to as Substation Expansion Planning (SEP). SEP is a difficult task as many
factors are involved such as
 Those constraints due to the upward grid, feeding the substations,
Those constraints due to the downward grid, through which the substation supplies the
loads,
Those constraints due to the factors to be observed for the substation itself
In running NEP, the voltages are assumed to be flat (i.e. 1 p.u.) and reactive power flows are
ignored. The main reason is the fact that constructing a line is not considered as a main tool
for voltage improvement. Moreover, the running time of NEP can be exceptionally high or
even the solution may not be possible if AC Load Flow (ACLF) is employed. That is why in
practice, NEP is normally based on using Direct Current Load Flow (DCLF). Upon running
GEP, SEP and NEP, the network topology is determined. However, it may perform
unsatisfactorily, if a detailed AC Load Flow (ACLF) is performed, based on existing
algorithms. To solve such a difficulty, static reactive power compensators, such as capacitors
and reactors may be used. Moreover, some more flexible reactive power resources such as
SVCs may also be required. The problem is, however
Where to install these devices?
What capacities do we have to employ?
What types do we have to use?
These types of studies are commonly referred to as Reactive Power Planning (RPP)
The electric power industry has drastically changed over the last two decades. It has moved
from regulated structure towards a market oriented environment in which the electric power
is transacted in the form of a commodity. Now the generation, transmission and distribution
are unbundled and may belong to separate entities. The planner cannot, for instance, dictate
where the generation resources have to be allocated. In this way, NEP problem is confronted
by an uncertain GEP input. So, how NEP can be solved, once the input data is uncertain?
Single-bus Generation Expansion Planning
The single bus GEP deals with capacity planning in which transmission system effects will
be ignored.
GEP is an optimization problem in which the aim is to determine the new generation plants
in terms of when to be available, what type and capacity they should be and where to
allocate so that an objective function is optimized and various constraints are met. It may be
of static type in which the solution is found only for a specified stage (typically, year) or a
dynamic type, in which, the solution is found for several stages in a specified period. The
objective function consists, generally, of

The first term is, mainly due to

Investment costs (Cinv)
Salvation value of investment costs (Csalv)
Fuel inventory costs (Cfinv)
while, the second term, consists, mainly, of
Fuel costs (Cfuel)
Non-fuel operation and maintenance costs (CO&M)
Cost of energy not served (CENS)
Besides the objective function, some constraints should also be met. A simple constraint is
the one which describes the available generating capacity to be greater than the load.
Obviously, if a reserve margin is required, the difference should also take the reserve into
account.

Generally various number of basic reliability indices such as Loss of Load

Probability (LOLP), Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Loss of Energy
Probability (LOEP), and Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE) are used to
assess generating capacity adequacy.

Network Expansion Planning, a Basic Approach

Network Expansion Planning (NEP) process tries to find the optimum routes between the
generation buses (determined in GEP phase) and the load centers (determined from load
forecasting) via substations (determined in SEP phase), in such a way that
Loads are completely supplied during both
Normal conditions
Once some types of contingencies occur on some system elements
Least costs are incurred
NEP is an optimization process in which the allocation (the sending and the receiving ends)
and class (voltage level, number of conductors, conductor type) of new transmission
elements, together with their required availability times are specified.
Problem Definition
In NEP, the problem is to determine the transmission paths between substations (both
existing and new) as well as their characteristics (voltage level, number of circuits,
conductor type, and so on).
In doing so
The investment cost should be minimized
The operational cost should be minimized
Various constraints should be met during
Normal conditions
Contingency conditions
The contingency is, in fact, an outage occurring on a single element (such as a line, a
transformer, a power generation unit) or some elements. The single element case is
commonly referred to N 1 conditions. Simultaneous contingencies on two elements (for
instance one line and one transformer, two lines, etc.) are referred to N - 2 conditions and so
on. By contingency conditions (say N - 1), we mean that the network should be so planned
that with every single element, out, the load is completely satisfied and no violation happens.
Problem Description
To understand some basic concepts, a simple test case (Garver test system) as depicted in
Figure below is used. A normal load flow solution procedure may be used to determine the
power transfer of each line. However, a simplified type of load flow, the so called DCLF
(Direct Current Load Flow), is normally used in power system planning problems, by which
the power transfers may be calculated very fast.

Figure: Garver test system

DC Load Flow Solution
Direct Current Load Flow (DCLF) gives estimations of lines power flows on AC power
systems. DCLF looks only at active power flows and neglects reactive power flows. This
method is non-iterative and absolutely convergent but less accurate than AC Load Flow
(ACLF) solutions. DCLF is used wherever repetitive and fast load flow estimations are
required.
In DCLF, nonlinear model of the AC system is simplified to a linear form through these
assumptions
Line resistances (active power losses) are negligible i.e. R << X.
Voltage angle differences are assumed to be small i.e. sin() = and cos() = 1.
Magnitudes of bus voltages are set to 1.0 per unit (flat voltage profile).
Tap settings are ignored.
Based on the above assumptions, voltage angles and active power injections are the variables
of DCLF. Therefore, for each bus i in the system, the ACLF equation for active power
injection at bus i is converted to
N
Pi= Bij ( i j )
j=1

Where,
Bij is the reciprocal of the reactance between bus i and bus j (Bij is the imaginary part of Yij).
i and j is the voltage angles at buses i and j respectively.
Pi is active power injection at bus i.
As a result, active power flow through transmission line i, between buses s and r, can be
calculated as:
1
PLi = ( )=B sr ( s r )
X Li s r

where XLi is the reactance of line i.

DC power flow equations in the matrix form and the corresponding matrix relation for flows
through branches are represented as:
Each diagonal element of B (i.e. B ii) is the sum of the reciprocal of the lines reactances
connected to bus i. The off-diagonal element (i.e. B ij) is the negative sum of the reciprocal of
the lines reactances between bus i and bus j.
A is a connection matrix in which aij is 1, if a line exists from bus i to bus j; otherwise zero.
Moreover, for the starting and the ending buses, the elements are 1 and -1, respectively.

B = [9.166667 -2.5 0 -1.666667 -5; -2.5 10 -5 -2.5 0; 0 -5 10 0 -5; -1.666667 -2.5 0 4.166667
0; -5 0 -5 0 10];
P = [0.89; -0.22; 0.53; -0.48; -0.72]
B = [10 -5 -2.5 0; -5 10 0 -5; -2.5 0 4.166667 0; 0 -5 0 10];