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Londons future: a brief guide
Five scenarios for the city post-Brexit, from a renationalised British capital to a European enclave

Detail of Diorama Map London (2010) by the Japanese map maker Sohei Nishino, who uses thousands
of photographs to create large prints of urban landscapes. Image courtesy of Michael Hoppen Gallery
Courtesy of Michael Hoppen Gallery
JULY 22, 2016 2:52 PM
by: Charles Leadbeater

Citiescanimplode,especiallywhentheyfaceacatastrophicshiftintheenvironmenttowhichtheycannotrespond.

Petra,inJordan,wasonceoneoftherichestcitiesintheworldbecauseoftheNabateanstechnologicalprowessin
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buildingdamsandconduitstomakethemostofscarcewatersupplies.Yetwhentraderoutesshiftedtogothrough
competingcitieslikePalmyra,Petrawascutofffromtheflowsofpeople,goods,spicesandgoldthatmadeitwealthy.Its
classicallyinspiredbuildingscarvedoutoftherockbecamemonumentstoalostcivilisation.

Walk around the city: it has huge
momentum, propelled by its young,
exuberant population
PerhapsthatwillbethefateoftheWalkieTalkieandtheCheesegrater.Builtat
theheightofLondonsfinancialandpropertyboom,theymightonedaybeseen
asremindersofalostworld.Suchathoughtwouldhaveseemedfarfetcheda
monthago,whenLondonwasbaskinginitsownsuccess.ButsinceJune23,
whentherestofEnglandvotedtoturnitsbackontheEU,thecitysoutlookhas
takenaturnfortheworse.

Londonanditsleadersnowfacefivescenariosforthecitysfuture,eachinformedbyamodellooselydrawnfromother
citiesthathavefacedsimilarshocks.WhichroutewillLondonfollow?

The collapsed city

Themosttellingmodernexamplesofcollapsedcitiesareoneindustrytownsthatfailedtorespondtochange.Aclassical
exampleisYoungstown,Ohio,whichbecamethefastestshrinkingcityintheUSinthelate1970s,whenitssteelindustry
felltobitsanditspopulationplungedfrom170,000toonly65,000.Youngstownscivicleadershiporganisedaround
itsexclusiveGardenClubcompoundedtheoriginaleconomicshockbyturningoneachother.Notsurprisingly,it
failedtoattractinwardinvestmentandnewtalent.Bycontrast,cooperativeandoutwardlookingAllentown,asteel
townofsimilarsizeinPennsylvania,revivedandprospered.

Themostfamousexampleofacityimploding,however,isDetroit.Since1950ithaslostmorethan1mpeopleand
hundredsofthousandsofjobs.Muchoftherealestateinmidtownisstillempty,standinglikesilentwitnessestothe
citysimplosionandleadingeveryvisitorfromamoreprosperouscitytowonder:howcouldsomuchgosowrongso
fast?WhatkilledDetroitwasnotjusteconomicstheriseofJapanesecompetitionincarmanufacturingbut
corruptionincityhallandtheflightofthemiddleclasses,whiteandblack,tothesuburbs.OnaSaturdaymorningatthe
EasternMarket,thehubofmidtownDetroit,itisnotthecoloursandthesmellsthatstrikeonesomuchasthenoiseof
thepeople.ThatsbecauseMidtownsdesertedstreetsoftensoundmorelikethoseofaquiethamlet.Itdoesnotsound
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likeacity.

IfLondonsuffersaflightofEuropeantalent,drivenoutbyanuncertaintyoverwhethertheyarewelcome,andby
dimmingeconomicprospects,thenthecitycouldbeintrouble.TheoverpricedwarehousesofShoreditch,whichinthe
past10yearshasbecomeatechcluster,couldwithinanotherdecadeonceagainbepoorbutsexy.

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Ruins in the ancient trading city of Petra DeAgostini/Getty Images

Atfirstsight,thatkindofflightdoesnotseemlikely.AnanalysisbyDeloitteearlierthisyearfoundthatLondonhad
1.7mhighlyskilledworkers,anincreaseof235,000inthepastthreeyearsalonethankstothegrowthofthetechnology
sector.Londonhas550,000morehighlyskilledjobsthanNewYork.Manyofthepeoplefillingtheserolesarefrom

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outsidetheUK.OneinthreeLondonerswasbornoverseasandonein10comefromelsewhereintheEU.

Walkaroundthecity:ithashugemomentum,propelledbyitsyoung,exuberantpopulationonascalethatParis,
FrankfurtandAmsterdamcombinedcannotmatch.Yettherearenogroundsforcomplacency.Ifthereisachurnof
about30,000highlyskilledmigrantsayear,itwouldonlytakeadecadeofstrictimmigrationcontrolsforthehighly
skilledpopulationofLondontobesubstantiallydepletedbyBrexit.AndwhatwouldLondondoifitlostpeoplewho
wouldnotmakeitthroughapointsbasedimmigrationsystem:its88,000constructionworkersits78,000foodand
hospitalitystaffandthe57,000adminstaffwhocomefromelsewhereinthegreaterEuropeanEconomicArea?Inan
economydrivenbyinnovation,knowledgeandculture,moneyfollowstalent.London,atallcosts,hastohangontothe
talent.

An inward turn

AslightlylessscaryscenarioisthatLondoncouldgobacktowhereithascomefrom.Itcouldbecomeoncemorea
Britishcity,ratherthanacosmopolitanone.BrexitcouldleadtoLondonbeingrenationalised.

Thiswouldreturnthecitytotheroleitplayedinthe1950s,whenithostedtheFestivalofBritain,introducingtherestof
thecountrytothemodernworld,whentheFinsburyHealthCentreofferedavisionofBritainwithanNHSthatpeople
upanddownthecountrycouldidentifywith.LondonisafterallstillhometomostBritishinstitutions:theBritish
Museum,BritishLibrary,BritishBroadcastingCorporationandsoon.

TheLeavevotewasintendedtoreinLondonin,toclosetheyawninggapbetweenthecityandtherestofthecountry.
Perhapsthiscouldbethemomentwhentheprovincesandsuburbstakebacktheircapital,intheprocessforcingitto
sharemoreofitsprosperitywiththerestoftheUK.JobsmightnotjustgotomainlandEuropebutalsotoStokeand
Sunderland.Londonmightgoslowerbutperhapsthatwouldbenobadthing,asthearchitecturecriticRowanMoore
putsitinhisbookonLondon,SlowBurnCity:Theidealisthatcitiesburnslowly.Theirsocialecologiesandphysical
formsshouldrenewthroughchange,notbedevastatedbyit.

WoulditbesobadforLondontohaveafewfallowyears?Newlifewouldemergeinthecracksofacitythatwouldbe
moreaffordableandmoreBritishinitsorientation.
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OneofthemoststrikingandtragicexamplesofacosmopolitancitythatwasnationalisedisSalonica,the
extraordinarilydiverseOttomancitythatwasruledbyMuslimsbetween1430and1912,inwhichJewishindustrialists
livednexttoTurkisharmyofficers,Greekmerchants,Bulgariantraders,andmanymore.AshoeshineboyinSalonica
neededmasteryofeightorninelanguages.Salonicawasamultifaithcityuntiltheearly20thcentury,whena
combinationofwar,depression,nationalismandideologyledtoitsethniccleansing.By1950itwasThessaloniki,95per
centGreekandalmostentirelyChristian.

Londonwillnotsufferthatfatebutitisbeingbroughttoheelbyapoliticalinstructiontotakegreaterheedofnational
identity.Aslightlydifferentmodelforitsfuture,asTylerBrlpointedoutinthisnewspaper(http://next.ft.com/conten
t/ebd5c2263eb111e69f2c36b487ebd80a),isMontreal.ThelargestcityinFrenchspeakingQuebec,Montrealinthe
1980sturneditsbackontheEnglishspeaking,internationalbusinessworld,whichwasanywayalreadymigratingto
Toronto,inthenameofgreaterequalityforFrenchspeakers.Criticssaytheresultisamelancholycitywithlotsoflovely
oldstreetswithboardeduphousesandshops.DefenderswouldsayMontrealishappywithitslot,hometomuchcross
culturalcreativity,symbolisedbyCirqueduSoleil,andbusypromotinghomegrownsocialinnovation.

Thisrenationalisationassumes,ofcourse,thatthereisacoherentBritainforLondontorepresent.That,too,isfarfrom
certain.

European enclave

AnothermodelforLondonwouldbeforittoasserttheEuropeanidentityithasdevelopedinthepast20yearsby
becomingaEuropeanenclavewithinanotherwiseEuroscepticBritain.ThemodelforthatisWestBerlin,whichsurvived
asanenclaveinhostileEastGermanyaftertheBerlinWallwasbuilt.WestBerlinwasconnectedtoWestGermanybya
narrowstripofrailwaylinethatrolewouldbeassignedtothehighspeedlinetotheChanneltunnel.

LondoncouldonlybecomeaEuropeanenclavethankstoquitealotofcreativityaboutwhatitmeanstobeacitizen.As
proposedbyRohanSilva,founderofthetechcoworkspaceSecondHome,Londoncouldhaveitsownvisasystem,
whichwouldallowforfreedomofmovementbetweenLondonandtheEU,solongaspeoplelivedandworkedin
London.PresumablythiswouldhavetobematchedbycomplexarrangementsoverLondonsaccesstothesinglemarket
andcontributionstotheEUbudget.OneleadingLondonpoliticiandescribedthevisaplanthus:Itisanabsolutely
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bonkersidea.Weare100percentbehindit.

TheUKmighthavetoreimagineLondonasaspecialEuropeaneconomiczone,muchasShenzhenwasChinasportal
totherestoftheworld.AnalternativemightbethatLondon,likeUSimmigrationgatewaycitiessuchasCharlotte,
NorthCarolina,couldcreateitsownidentitycardtoentitlepeopletouselocalserviceseveniftheydonothavefull
citizenship.Peoplewhodidnotgetpastthenewpointsbasedimmigrationsystemwouldbelikethemeticsinancient
Athens:alienswhowerepermanentlyresidentinthecity.

Noneofthiswillbepossible,however,unlesstheUKbecomesevenmoreofapatchworkstateofdevolvedpowersto
nations,regionsandcities,somethingaTheresaMayledgovernmentisunwillingtocountenanceevenwithformer
LondonMayorBorisJohnsonasforeignsecretary.GeorgeOsbornewasthegreatdecentraliser.Toforcesuchashift,
Londonwouldhavetobecomemuchmoreorganisedpoliticallyandmobiliseamovementforindependence,perhapsin
alliancewithotherproEuropeancitieslikeCambridge,OxfordandBristol.

The hovercraft city

AfourthoptionwouldbetoimagineLondonhoveringjustabovetheterritoryoftheUK,aglobalcitystategovernedby
Britishlaw,likeSingapore.

Londonwillrespondtothiscurrentcrisisinthewayagreattradingcityalwaysdoes,byfollowingthemoney.Themoney
isallcomingfromAsia.ThepeoplewhoseeBrexitasanopportunityareChineseandotherAsianinvestorswhowantto
snapupLondonpropertycompanies,heritagebrandsandtechcompanies.CentralLondonattimesalreadyresembles
DubaionThames.ItcouldbecomeShangdon.

Seeninthislight,BrexitmightbeablessingindisguiseforLondon.AnageingEuropeisgrippedbyslowgrowthand
Germanledausterity.Employmentinbankshasalreadypasseditshighpointasartificialintelligencestartstolaywaste
totradingfloors.

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The Singapore skyline Dreamstime

ThiscouldbeachanceforLondontojumpontoadifferenttrajectory.Itsstrengthisthatitisapragmatic,commercial
tradingcitythatgivesshapetowhateverforcesarerunningthroughtheworld.JustasMiamiisalargelyLatinAmerican
cityonthesoutherntipoftheUS,soLondoncouldbecomeanAsianoutpostinEurope.

ThisshiftwouldrequireLondontofollowitsownforeignpolicy.ItwouldhavetobepreparedtoembraceAsian
companies,valuesandcultureinawayithasonlyplayedwithsofar.ShanghaiwasonceawesternenclaveinChina
LondonmightbecomeaChineseenclaveinEurope.WearejustgettingusedtotheideaofChinesetouristswewillhave
togetusedtotheideaofChineselandlords,ownersandemployers.Suckitup.

Muddling through

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Themostlikelyandperhapsthemostoptimisticscenarioisthateveryonemuddlesthrough,inEurope,intheUKandin
London,perhapswithaspectsofallfourofthepreviousscenariosinplayatthesametime.ThisLondonwouldbepartof
aUKthatwouldstillbeanassociatememberoftheEUalbeitonstrainedterms.AmodelforthisisGreeceandamodel
forLondonmightbewhathashappenedtoAthens.

TheConservativepartynowfacesachallengenotunliketheSyrizaledgovernmentinGreece,whichthreatenedtopull
outoftheeurozoneoverthepunitivetermsofthebailout.Syriza,ledbyAlexisTsipras,campaignedstronglyagainstthe
plan,winningelectionsonthatticketin2015.However,theexitdealofferedbytheEUwassounappealingthat
eventuallymostofSyrizaswalloweditsprideanddecidedtostayinthefold.Thepartysplitasaresult.SurelytheEU
willplaytheUKthesameway:offeringitadealsobadthatchoosingtoremainseemsthebetteroption.

IfBrexitnegotiationsaredrawnoutiftheLeaversgrowremorsefulanddistractedifthetermsofferedaredeeply
unattractive,thenthequestionofleavingtheEUmightonceagainbecomeadisputeconfinedtotheranksoftheTory
partyanditssplintergroups.

Athens,undertheleadershipofMayorGiorgosKaminis,hasbeenamodelofcivicresilienceduringthesecrises.Not
onlyhasithadtocopewithexistentialeconomicandpoliticalcrises,butwithaninfluxofrefugeesaswell.Athenshas
comethrough,albeitwithitsportofPiraeusmajorityownedbytheChinesegovernment,thanksinnosmallparttoa
massofcollaborativeselfhelpamongcitizenstotakeovertherunningofparks,publicspacesandculturalinstitutions,
inspiredbyAmaliaZepou,adocumentaryfilmmakerturnedpolitician.LondonwillhavetobelikeAthens,resilient
enoughtocope,makedoandgetthroughthenextfewyearsbeforesomethingakintonormalityandcommonsense
returns.

The our of Cities all

Whicheverofthesescenarioscomestopass,giventheshockthatLondonhasexperiencedoverthepastfewweeks,afew
thingshavebecomeclear.

First,Londonwillneednewlevelsofambitious,sharedleadershipandnotjustfromthemayor.Londonsuniversities
shouldbepoolingtheirexpertisetochartabetterfutureforthecity.Culturalinstitutionsshouldstartprogrammesto
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promoteEuropeancultureandvalues.Londonneedstoshowtheworldthroughthousandsofeverydayactsthatthecity
remainsopen,aplacewhereminoritiesarenotjustsuccouredbutcelebrated.Thisisanextraordinaryopportunityfor
Londonsleadershiptogalvaniseacitythatwasclosetoselfsatisfiedcomplacency.Thechallengeandsotheopportunity
isfargreaterthantheeasywicketMayorJohnsonenjoyedwiththe2012Olympics.

Second,otherEuropeancitiestemptedtogloatatLondonstravailsshouldrecognisethatthefaultlinebetweenmore
cosmopolitan,innovationdrivencitiesandtheirmorenationalistic,cautioushinterlandsnowrunsaroundtheglobe.
Majorcitiesindifferentcountriesshareasmuchwithoneanotherastheydowiththenationsthathostthem.Theresa
strongcasefortherecreationofthemedievalHanseaticLeagueoffreetradingnorthernEuropecities,ofwhichLondon
wasone.Europeancitieshaveastrongsharedinterestinacivic,open,cosmopolitanEurope.Ifcitiesareheldhostageby
theforcesofprovincialconservatismandnationalismthenEuropehasnofuture.

Third,Londonhasaprodigiouscapacityforreinvention,preciselybecauseitismessy,slightlychaoticandnotoverly
planned.Aboveallitmustremainapolyglotcity,whatthe16thcenturypoetWilliamDunbardescribedastheflourof
Citiesall.

Londonisnotaplaceforpeopletofeelsorryforthemselves.Nooneowesthecityaliving.Londonmustbeacityfor
peopleexcitedbymixingwithpeoplewhoaredifferent.ThosewhofindthatalarmingshouldlivequietlyinArcadian
suburbsandprovincialtowns.Goodonthem.TheyshouldleaveLondontopursueitsownroletogiveformtotheideas
andforcesthatareremakingtheworld.

CharlesLeadbeaterisanAssociateoftheCentreforLondonandauthorofTheLondonRecipe

Photographs:CourtesyofMichaelHoppenGalleryDeAgostini/GettyImagesDreamstime

*ThisarticlehasbeenamendedsinceoriginalpublicationtocorrectthefactthatMontrealisnotthecapitalcityof
Quebecprovince

Letters in response to this article:

TherebirthofYoungstown,acityleftfordead/FromEricPlaney(http://next.ft.com/content/2bd4a374535211e6bef
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LondonwasnotamemberoftheHanseaticLeague/FromJensTholstrup(http://next.ft.com/content/573fb5325283
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Printasinglecopyofthisarticleforpersonaluse.Contactusifyouwishtoprintmoretodistributetoothers.The
FinancialTimesLtd.

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