Refugees cards

Huge amount of unfilled homes creates a cycle of Economic Growth and fall
The Economist 15 ., 3-11-2015, "Why China's economy is slowing," Economist,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-8

Most worrying, much of the credit flowed to property developers. Chinas inventory of unsold
homes sits at a record high. The real-estate sector, which previously accounted for some 15% of
economic growth, could face outright contraction. New property starts fell by nearly a fifth in
the first two months of 2015, compared with the same period a year earlier. From this vantage
point, the abruptness of Chinas current slowdown looks more cyclical than structural. A period
of overheated economic growth tends to be followed by a correction. Not all cycles are created
equal, however. Working off a credit overhang can take years. Given that Chinas financial
system is mostly closed, it has little risk of an acute crisis, but the other side of the coin is that it
might need even longer to clean up its bad debts.

Chinas suffering a severe Labor Shortage Problem

Kathy Chu and Bob Davis 15, 04-21-15, "As Chinas Workforce Dwindles, the World
Scrambles for Alternatives," WSJ, http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-chinas-workforce-dwindles-
the-world-scrambles-for-alternatives-1448293942

While Chinas economic downturn is providing some respite from the labor crunch, Crystals
blue-jeans factory here still pays 20% above the market rate. It organizes cooking classes and
singing contests to keep workers happy. Last month, China announced it was abolishing its
decades-old policy restricting most couples to one child. But that wont likely put much of a dent
in the countrys looming demographic problem because relatively few Chinese prefer to have
more than one child, economists noteand it will be at least 16 years before any additional
babies make it to the job market. Fearing that China will see an exodus of manufacturers,
Chinese Communist Party Chief Xi Jinping last year called for an industrial robot revolution in
China, which has become the worlds largest market for automation. Looking ahead to 2050, the
future appears mixed for consumers around the globe. Low-cost production in China has helped
suppress inflation in the U.S., Europe and at home. It is an open question whether automation
can hold down costs as effectively as Chinese peasant labor did. But consumers should look
forward to more choice, faster delivery and, perhaps, less harm to the environment. RELATED
Robots Take On More-Elaborate Tasks Some technologists even think that inventions such as 3-
D printingessentially printers that replicate solid objects like copiers reproduce printed
pageswill have a big impact by 2050. In such a world, printers could spew out clothing, food,
electronics and other goods ordered online from a nearly limitless selection, with far fewer
workers involved in production. In 2050, you could potentially have a 3-D printer at home that
could produce all the fabrics you want, said Roger Lee, the chief executive of Hong Kongs TAL
Group, which makes 1 of every 6 dress shirts sold in the U.S. for brands from Banana Republic to
Brooks Brothers. That would make us obsolete. The end of very cheap labor in China is giving a
push to these advances in technology, which will make China less central to global
manufacturing. But changing consumer tastesenabled by the same technological changeare
diminishing Chinas role too.
 Neg Damner
The Aff plan is highly unrealistic and misunderstands the state of Chinas ghost
cities
Wade Shepard 15, 9-18-2015, "Do Chinas ghost cities offer a solution to Europes migrant
crisis?," Reuters, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/09/18/why-millions-of-refugees-
and-chinas-ghost-cities-arent-a-match-made-in-heaven/

Realistically speaking, this suggestion isnt worth analyzing with much depth. The political
quagmire of relocating masses of people across the planet not to mention the fact that
refugees need more than just housing means that this is a far greater ordeal than simply
assuaging demand with supply. It does shed light, though, on the gulf that exists between the
predominant international opinion on Chinas so-called ghost cities and their present reality.
Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which
account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space enough to
completely cover Madrid these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to
be. While many of Chinas new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not
deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly
purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of
dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees,
those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of
money for them. So why would anyone spend incredible amounts of cash on houses they do not
intent to use? All over the world, the value of property extends beyond the utilitarian function
of being a place to live. Real estate is also a vital economic entity that presents an avenue for
investment as well as a way of storing wealth a use of property that is taken to the extreme in
China. Many Chinese investors are buying property based on expectations of appreciation, and
that it is a solid, safe investment that they can easily understand, said Mark Tanner, the
founding director of China Skinny, a Shanghai based marketing research firm. A full 39 percent
of individual wealth in China is kept in housing, and, according to Nomura, 21 percent of Chinas
urban households possess more than one home. The reasons for this desire to invest in housing
often results from a lack of better options. Chinas banks pay negative interest and are
becoming even more unattractive with the recent wave of currency devaluation. Wealth
management products are not fully developed and are highly regulated by the government, and
the stock market is viewed to be about as secure as a casino. A huge portion of the homes that
are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an
incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any
interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem,
they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer
them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of
value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesnt need to
mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an
economic function, an apartment in China doesnt need to have people living in it for it to be
economically viable. Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to
cash in quickly, said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a
Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused
apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do
anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties
are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from
renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle especially because it costs
tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for
tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have
multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of
homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big
investors with multiple properties, generally dont have any mortgages to pay off or any other
leans, so there isnt as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short
term. Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some
point. A huge number of Chinas new apartments are located in new development areas, which
are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early,
you can get a better price. So its common for people to purchase homes in places that are not
yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they wont be able to
inhabit them for many years. As these new urban developments grow and evolve, more and
more people eventually move into their homes. According to a report by Standard Chartered,
between 2012 and 2014 the occupancy rate of Zhengzhous Zhengdong New District
prominently featured in a 60 Minutes segment on ghost cities doubled, while the population
in Zhenjiangs Dantu district quadrupled, and occupancy in Changzhous new Wujin district
increased more than twofold. As new areas develop, the facilities, institutions, infrastructure
and businesses they need to be attractive to residents, vacant homes begin filling up as ghost
cities come alive. So, while China may have tens of millions of empty apartments, it doesnt
mean that they dont serve an economic function, it doesnt mean that they are unwanted, and
it definitely doesnt mean that they are just laying out in some urban no-mans-lands ripe for the
taking.