Activity ES LS Float (ES-LS)

A 0 9.33 9.33
B 0 0 0
C 0 8.66 8.66
D 2 9.35 7.35
E 2 15.44 13.44
F 5 5 0
G 3 11.66 8.66
H 13.5 22.66 9.16
I 20.83 22.32 1.49
J 20.83 20.83 0
K 26.16 26.16 0

Therefore, the critical path is as follows:

B-F-J-K = Time taken= 5+15.83+5.33+2 =28.16

Stander deviation (S.D) = (1+6.25+1.78+0) ^1/2

= (9.03) ^1/2
=3

t
Hence, expected time ( exp) = 35 weeks
Estimated time (test) =28.16weeks.

Then, Z= texp - test

S.D

= 35-28.16
3
= 2.28

Now, referring z- table, we get

P(x<z) = p ( x<0.9887)

Z= 0.9887 i.e 98.87%

Therefore, the probability that the mill will be fined $300,000 is 0.9887 i.e. 98.87%

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