Preventing Armageddon

The detection of Asteroids and preventing them from reaching Earth

30th November 2017

Bailey Shahinian, Theo Balestra, Jacob Anabi, Alex Rigl, Brandon Jafari
Grand Challenges Initiative
Chapman University
Orange
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Personnel

I. Theo Balestra - Web Designer

Computer Science Major (Looking to major in Finance too)
French born American citizen
Design website and transfer information and schematics
Make trailer video to simulate potential doomsday experience

II. Alex Rigl - Plan Designer

Computer Science Major
German born American citizen
Create plan and model based on Jacobs calculations
Assist in the creation of the video for doomsday simulation

III. Bailey Shahinian - Financial Analyst

Economics major
Political Science Major
Analyze cost effectiveness of plan of calculate the approximate cost of the kinetic
impactor
Aid Brandon in the formulation of the business plan by gathering all info from
everyone and creating paragraphs from it

IV: Brandon Jafari - Financial Analyst and Salesman

Biology Major
Communicate our goals for the project
Establish, organize, and create a cohesive business plan

V: Jacob Anabi - Physicist

Physics and Computer Science major
Jordanian lineage
Loves science
Researching about the physics of the kinetic impactor and sources discussing it
and working on calculations
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Overview
Throughout history asteroids have hit earth, sometimes causing critical extinction events.
Them most notable time an asteroid caused mass extinction on our tiny blue marble was
when the dinosaurs roamed the earth. Now, mankind has the technology available to
prevent such an event from happening to us. The goal of the paper is to elaborate on the
best way to prevent such an asteroid from striking the Earth. For our project, we will be
formulating an idea and design for a kinetic impactor, that is designed to come in contact
with the asteroid, detonate, setting of course from Earths path. The steps to achieve this
include an understanding of the physics of movement of space, an understanding of the
design and compartments needed for the kinetic impactor to function, formulating a plan
what to do based on the size of incoming asteroids.

Goals
1. To create a comprehensive plan that details a kinetic impactor to prevent said asteroid from
colliding with Earth
a. Formulate a design and take into consideration modern technology in the process
b. Show calculations and different approaches depending on the size of the asteroid
2. Create a three dimensional model that simulates and describes our kinetic impactor
a. Show the different parts of the model, with labels and a small summary on its function
b. Show different angles to have a complete picture with the outside and basic renders of
the inside of the spacecraft
3. Formulate a website to describe our mission to provide an interactive medium for other people to
engage in our project
a. Utilize videos and graphics to show our plans for a kinetic impactor
b. A three dimensional view of our kinetic impactor if possible

Grand Challenge Summary

The Grand Challenge of preventing an asteroid from striking earth was determined a Grand
Challenge by NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (NASA, 2013). Although
there has been many proposed ways as to how to prevent an asteroid from striking earth many of them
would be futile in practice due to the amount of warning we would need. One of the key problems
concerning the grand challenge deflecting an asteroid away from Earth.

Solution
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1. Create asteroid deflection system

a. Kinetic impactor
i. Used to deflect asteroid that is on a trajectory towards Earth away from
earth. The farther out we do it, the better because the impulse required,
thus the energy required, is inversely proportional to distance to impact.
ii. A Two module design
1. Impactor Spacecraft
2. Reconnaissance Spacecraft
iii. Utilize a three dimensional model and website to show how a kinetic
impactor would deflect an asteroid
1. Look to design specifications for further information

Team Needs
1. A team of aerospace and rocket engineers and physicists
a. Hire within NASA as they are the most qualified and outsourcing for specific
jobs.
b. Hire from private companies such as Neoshield who have devised plans specific
to Kinetic impactors and solutions to deflecting asteroids
2. Funding
a. Materials needed to build the kinetic impactor system
b. Labor costs of the workers, and their families
c. Costs needed to send these materials to space, if we were to enact a satellite
system in space, not on Earth
3. A 3D designing application to help better visualize the design of our kinetic impactor
a. As well as a rough drawing or schematic to visualize the design before
implementation into a 3D designing application
4. Calculations to determine how much energy our kinetic impactor actually needs to
deliver the required impulse.
a. Utilizing peer reviewed sources and mathematical equations, will be utilized by
the arrangement of communication devices on the aircraft to detect Near Earth
Objects.

Business Description
a. More Complete Description of Challenge and Your Approach
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- The challenge presented to our group is how to prevent an extinction level asteroid from
colliding earth and destroying all life
- Impact of the asteroid would induce magnitude >11 earthquakes, tsunamis (Peter
et al.)
- Alongside this it would cover the Earth with debris (Peter et al.)
- Our group challenge in particular is making a feasible plan as to how to prevent said
extinction event from occurring via using a kinetic impactor
- A kinetic Impactor is a vehicle/object which is guided towards an object to collide
in a specific way in order to cause aid object trajectory to change/alter (Cheng,
A.f., et al)
- Requirements that we need to meet in order to construct a kinetic impactor are
- To successfully prove that a kinetic impactor would work by successfully
deflecting an asteroid that is larger than 100 meters in diameter (Cheng,
A.f., et al)
- Understand the hypervelocity collision effect on the asteroid, A.K.A how
the speed of impact affects the impact (Cheng, A.f., et al)
- To measure the significance of the collision on the asteroids stability and
trajectory (Cheng, A.f., et al)
b. More Complete Description of Other Historical and Current Approaches
- 65 million years ago an asteroid killed off dinosaurs (Peter et al.)
- Current ways we are trying to prevent asteroids from trying to hit the earth are
- Kinetic impactor, as explained above (Cheng, A.f., et al)
- Gravity tractor which used the gravity from a super large spacecraft to slow down
the velocity of an incoming asteroid (Wei Bong).
- Solar sail via landing a pod on said asteroid and then deploying a large parachute
like sail in order to slow down the asteroid's velocity (Wei Bong)
c. Market Analysis: How will your approach gain traction?
- Focus on how our project is the only way to save humanity in case of a catastrophic
asteroid coming towards Earth
- Also show how this approach is both economically smart and highly feasible
- Building a kinetic Impactor will create short term jobs that will boost the
economy overall (Zobel, Christopher W.)
- This short boost in the economy will allow new businesses to pop up (Zobel,
Christopher W.)
- Which will in hand create long term Jobs allowing for long term growth of our
economy. (Zobel, Christopher W.)
d. Promotions: How will you communicate your team's activities?
- Detailed report about the design of the kinetic impactor
- Report will detail the design, science, logic behind the Kinetic impactor
- Utilize advanced marketing techniques
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- Web banners
- Commonly seen on websites such as Amazon.com
- Social media
- Instagram, facebook, snapchat, myspace
- Main Stream Media
- Fox, MSNBC, CNN

Competitive Analysis:
Pros/Cons of Alternate Solutions (Table Format)

Project Cost Feasibility (in Chance of

comparison) Success

Kinetic Medium Medium High

1
Impactor
2 High Medium Low
Solar Sail
3 High Low Medium
Gravity Tractor

Satellite High High High

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System

(1) A device gets launched and travels to the asteroid and upon contact will explode
to knock the asteroid of its current path, which is heading for Earth.
(a) Medium cost comes from bomb inside, launch, and building the
spacecraft,.
(b) Medium feasibility due to it being somewhat difficult to actually build the
base with a bomb inside and calculating how big of a bomb is needed.
(c) High success rate as any explosion, with the right calculations done, will
push the asteroid of its current path.
(2) A large flat device that uses the solar radiation to move. This works by blocking
the sunlight on one side of the asteroid, causing one side to warm more and emit
more thermal radiation, creating thrust.
(a) High cost due to the expensive technology needed and the sheer size it is
needed to be to cover enough of the asteroid
(b) Medium feasibility as their path can be hard to control and the
technologys cost makes it hard.
(c) Low success rate as the thrust created by the thermal radiation can barely
be enough to make a difference and a lot of solar sails would be needed.
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(3) A very large object that would approach the asteroid and then orbit around it to
use its gravitational field to pull the asteroid out of the way.
(a) High cost due to the massive size it needs to be to emit a strong enough
gravitational pull.
(b) Low feasibility as it is difficult to create such a massive object and put it
somewhere
(c) Medium success rate as if it is possible to launch, it needs a long time
frame to be able to pull it off its orbit enough.
(4) Similar to Gravity Tractor, expects it uses many many satellites instead of just
one large object to pull the object away.
(a) High cost due to the amount of satellites needed and the expense of each
satellite.
(b) High feasibility as it is possible to build all of the satellites since we already
have made them.
(c) High chance of success due to the fact that enough satellites will create a
strong enough gravitational pull to pull it off the orbit.

What Are We Doing:

KINETIC IMPACTOR
As shown by the above chart, the kinetic impactor is the most feasible
option and plan that can be used. Although a mid range price point and
feasibility, it has a high chance of succeeding, and compared to the only other
option that has a high chance of success, the satellite system, it is more cost
effective and although not as feasible, can be done with enough of a time frame.

Design of Kinetic Impactor:

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The basic design of the kinetic impactor would be that of a

spacecraft, with a cylindrical base, rockets at the bottom, and a
spear-headed tip. Additionally, solar panels will act as wings and for
power in case adjustments to the trajectory are needed to be made.
The idea behind it is that it will collide into the asteroid from an angle
and explode the nuclear bomb within it on impact, pushing the
asteroid off to the side off of earths path. The farther away from earth
we can do this, the higher chance we have of success. This is due to
the to angle of the path taken, which the farther out it is, the smaller
the angle of the path. Thus, even a small change can knock it off
earths path.

The size, velocity, and distance from earth of the asteroid will
determine the
a. Size of the kinetic impactor
b. Energy stored in the bomb
c. The years in advance to launch
d. The amount of kinetic impactors needed to launch

We will be basing our model on previous iterations down by Neoshield (pictured above)
and NASA, to create the penultimate design for the project. The kinetic impactor will
include:
- A solar array on the top of the spacecraft to provide energy in flight that will
always face the direction of the sun for energy (Neoshield)
- A combination of antennas that will allow for communication between the
impactor and Earth

Although we will be providing a different alternative, we will be using the same

concept provided by Neoshield of utilizing a two part system, one half acting as the
kinetic impactor (Figure 1) and one half acting as a reconnaissance spacecraft that will
allow for more precise measuring when detecting NEOs (Near Earth Objects)(Figure2).
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Figure 1: Neoshield Impactor Spacecraft

Figure 2: Neoshield reconnaissance spacecraft

In order to propel the spacecraft, we will utilize a combination of chemical and

electrical propulsion system in order to maintain equilibrium within the spacecraft
(Neoshield). Depending on the United States governments technology to produce a
nuclear bomb, we will decide how to impact the asteroid. If the nuclear power is not
great enough to knock the asteroid of its course, we will simply ram the kinetic impactor
into the asteroid at a far enough distance from Earth to knock it of course; however, the
best solution remains that we utilize nuclear weapons within the center of the aircraft to
detonate next to or inside of the asteroid, depending on how far away the asteroid is
from Earth. (Sickle 2015) These designs do not take into an account space for a nuclear
object, so we will utilize a chassis within the impactor spacecraft compartment to
stabilize the nuclear weapon so detonation does not occur until it comes in contact with
the asteroid or it is remotely denoted through signals within the satellite system on the
reconnaissance spacecraft compartment.

Website:
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To complement the three dimensional model, we will be building a website to

display the model, give insights into it, as well as background information including
technical specifics and team members. There will be an introductory video to
supplement our information, so look forward to that.

Future Outlook: What's Next?

End of the Semester
- Create Website
- Create 3D Model
- An estimated cost of the project and its specific components
- Cost of saturn V was 565 million USD
- Cost of ISS was 150 billion USD
- Cost of Apollo program was 20 billion USD

Future Projects (For Next Semester)

- Exploring how to work the mechanics
- Verified peer reviewed documents that shine light into what our project needs to
uncover
- Print out the three dimensional model
- Formulate simulations to test our model on what would happen in space

Risks:: What are the obstacles to your team's success?

- Calculations to deflect asteroids are currently untested/unreliable
- Would need further testing, but at the point it might be too late
- Preventing the kinetic impactor design from being weaponised against mankind
- Science gives us the key to the gates of heaven, but the same key can be
used to open the gates of hell
- Possible debris from destroyed asteroid dealing damage to Earth
- Asteroid fragments that are too big to be destroyed by Earths atmosphere

Relationship between cost and distance

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Exponential

USD($)
Decay

kilometers(km
Asteroid Distance From )
Earth

Sources
(1) Cheng, A.f., et al. Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment Mission: Kinetic Impactor.
Planetary and Space Science, vol. 121, 2016, pp. 2735.,
doi:10.1016/j.pss.2015.12.004.
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(2) Zhang, Fei, et al. Rotational and Translational Considerations in Kinetic Impact
Deflection of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids. Advances in Space Research, vol. 59,
no. 7, 2017, pp. 19211935., doi:10.1016/j.asr.2017.01.003.
(3) Syal, Megan Bruck, et al. Deflection by Kinetic Impact: Sensitivity to Asteroid
Properties. Icarus, vol. 269, 2016, pp. 5061., doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2016.01.010.
(4) Hernandez, Sonia, et al. Mission Opportunities for the Flight Validation of the Kinetic
Impactor Concept for Asteroid Deflection. Acta Astronautica, vol. 103, 2014, pp. 309
321., doi:10.1016/j.acta gastro.2014.04.013.
(5) Bhaskaran, Shyam, and Brian Kennedy. Closed Loop Terminal Guidance Navigation for
a Kinetic Impactor Spacecraft. Acta Astronautica, vol. 103, 2014, pp. 322332.,
doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2014.02.024.
(6) Stickle, A.m., et al. Modeling Momentum Transfer from Kinetic Impacts: Implications for
Redirecting Asteroids. Procedia Engineering, vol. 103, 2015, pp. 577584.,
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.04.075.
(7) Peter, et al. Briefing: Carl Gray's Article on Time Management
Http://Www.bmj.com/Cgi/Content/Full/316/7137/S2-7137 Seemed to Go ... Bmj, vol. 316,
no. 7149, 1998, doi:10.1136/bmj.316.7149.3a.
(8) Wie, Bong. Dynamics and Control of Gravity Tractor Spacecraft for Asteroid
Deflection.Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 5 Nov. 2008,
arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/1.32735?journalCode=jgcd.
(9) Kinetic Impactor for Asteroid Deflection by Spacecraft. NEOShield,
www.neoshield.eu/mitigation-measures-kinetic-impactor-gravity/kinetic-impactor-asteroid-
deflection-spacecraft/.
(10) Zobel, Christopher W. Quantitatively Representing Nonlinear Disaster Recovery.
Decision Sciences, vol. 45, no. 6, 2014, pp. 10531082., doi:10.1111/deci.12103.