MATH4333 Solution to Homework 4

1. Construct an SEIR epidemic disease model, where E is an exposed state between susceptible and
infective, consisting of individuals that have contracted the disease but are not yet infectious.
Assume that exposed individuals become infective with rate α.

(a) Diagram this model, write down the governing equations, and nondimensionalize the equations
introducing the dimensionless groups
βN α
R0 = , ξ= .
γ γ

(b) For a population with S0 susceptible individuals, derive the condition for an epidemic to occur.
(c) How does the behavior of this model differ from the SIR model?

Solution

(a) The given system can be diagrammed as

βSI αE γI
S /E /I /R

The governing equations of the SEIR model are

dS
= −βSI
dt
dE
= βSI − αE
dt
dI
= αE − γI
dt
dR
= γI
dt
and by letting
S E I
, Ê = , Iˆ = ,
Ŝ = t̂ = γt
N N N
the system of equations can be nondimensionalized into

dŜ
= −R0 Ŝ Iˆ
dt̂
dÊ
= R0 Ŝ Iˆ − ξ Ê
dt̂
dIˆ
= ξ Ê − Iˆ
dt̂
dR̂
= Iˆ
dt̂
where
βN α
R0 = and ξ= .
γ γ
ˆ
(b) By setting ddŜt̂ = ddÊt̂ = ddIt̂ = ddR̂t̂ = 0, it could be seen that Iˆ = Ê = 0 for the fixed points of
the nondimensionalized equations, therefore the fixed points are of the form (Ŝ∗ , 0, 0, 1 − Ŝ∗ ).
The linear stability problem near Ŝ ≈ Ŝ0 and Iˆ ≪ 1 may be solved by considering the system
    
d Ê −ξ R0 Ŝ0 Ê
≈
dt̂ Iˆ ξ −1 Iˆ

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 with the underlying eigenvalues

ξ+1 1
q
λ± = − ± (ξ + 1)2 − 4ξ(1 − R0 Ŝ0 )
2 2
so that an epidemic occurs if
βS0
Re {λ+ } > 0 ⇐⇒ ξ>0 and R0 Ŝ0 = > 1.
γ

(c) The disease transmission rate will be slowed down by the existence of exposed state, yet as
we still have
dŜ
= −R0 Ŝ,
dR̂
the final size of SEIR epidemic will be the same as in SIR epidemic whenever ξ 6= 0.

2. Construct a SIR model for an epidemic disease where there are two types of individuals such that
the first type is easier than the second type to infect. Once infected, there is no difference between
the types.

(a) Diagram this model, write down the governing equations, and nondimensionalize the equations
introducing the dimensionless groups
β1 N β2
R0 = , ξ= .
γ β1

(b) For a population in which all individuals are susceptible, and that consists of αN individuals
of the first type and (1 − α)N individuals of the second type, determine the condition for an
epidemic to occur and an equation for the fraction of individuals that eventually get sick.

Solution

(a) The given system can be diagrammed as

S1 ?
?? β S I
?? 1 1
??
? γI
I /R
?


 β2 S2 I
S2

The governing equations of this model are

dS1
= −β1 S1 I
dt
dS2
= −β2 S2 I
dt
dI
= β1 S1 I + β2 S2 I − γI
dt
dR
= γI
dt
and by letting
S1 S2 I
Ŝ1 = , Ŝ2 = , Iˆ = , t̂ = γt
N N N

2
 the system of equations can be nondimensionalized into
dŜ1
= −R0 Ŝ1 Iˆ
dt̂
dŜ2
= −R0 ξ Ŝ2 Iˆ
dt̂
dIˆ
= R0 (Ŝ1 + ξ Ŝ2 )Iˆ − Iˆ
dt̂
dR̂
= Iˆ
dt̂
where
β1 N β2
R0 = and ξ= .
γ β1
dIˆ
(b) To analyze the stability of the given system, consider the equation of dt̂
with Ŝ1 ≈ α, Ŝ2 ≈
1 − α and Iˆ ≪ 1, we have
dIˆ
≈ R0 [α + ξ(1 − α)]Iˆ − Iˆ
dt̂
so that an epidemic occurs if R0 [α + ξ(1 − α)] > 1, i.e.
[αβ1 + (1 − α)β2 ]N
> 1.
γ
If an epidemic occurs, the system of (Ŝ1 , Ŝ2 , I,ˆ R̂) should approach from (α, 1 − α, 0, 0) to a
fixed point (Ŝ1,∞ , Ŝ2,∞ , 0, R̂∞ ) where Ŝ1,∞ + Ŝ2,∞ + R̂∞ = 1, asymptotically in time. Since
dŜ1
= −R0 Ŝ1
dR̂
dŜ2
= −R0 ξ Ŝ2
dR̂
are all separable, separating and integrating from the initial to final conditions gives
Ŝ1,∞ = αe−R0 R̂∞
Ŝ2,∞ = (1 − α)e−R0 ξR̂∞
So the transcendental equation for R̂∞ is
R̂∞ + αe−R0 R̂∞ + (1 − α)e−R0 ξR̂∞ − 1 = 0
3. Consider vaccination of infants within the SIR endemic disease model. Determine the fraction of
newborn infants that must be vaccinated to eradicate the disease.
Solution Let p be the fraction of newborn infants to be vaccinated, then the given system can be
diagrammed as
O
cI pbN
(1−p)bN βSI γI 
/S /I /R
dS dI dR
  
and the governing equations this model are
dS
= (1 − p)bN − βSI − dS
dt
dI
= βSI − (c + d + γ)I
dt
dR
= pbN + γI − dR
dt

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 dI
The disease will be eradicated if dt could be kept negative, i.e.

c+d+γ
S(t) <
β

and this requires S(t) to be non-increasing in time, i.e.

dS
= (1 − p)bN − βSI − dS ≤ 0.
dt
So the condition for eradicating the disease is
c+d+γ
(1 − p)bN ≤ (βI + d)S < (βI + d) ·
β
 
1 βI
=⇒ p>1− 1+
R0 d
βbN
where the basic reproductive ratio R0 = d(γ+c+d) .