26/10/2017 A different ball game

Game theory

Analysing football styles

A different ball game
Just how distinctive is Barcelona's "tiki taka" playing style?

Game theory Sep 22nd 2014 | by B.R.

Football passing style

Source: Qatar Computing Research Institute

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26/10/2017 A different ball game

THERE are many broad footballing styles. “Long-ball”—in which the midfield is
bypassed as defenders shunt the ball towards a muscular striker—is particularly
associated with some English sides. “Catenaccio”, whereby a team relies on a strong
defence to absorb pressure before launching a counter-attack, is a label often
applied to Italians. The “pressing game”, which requires teams to harry opponents
high up the field, now seems to be the tactic de jour throughout much of Europe.

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But few individual teams can boast a style of play so distinct that a term must be
coined to describe it and it only. The Tottenham Hotspur side which won the
English league in 1950-51 is alone in being described as the team of “push and run”.
Talk about “total football” and everyone will know you are referring to the Ajax side
that dominated Europe in the early 1970s (or, perhaps, the Dutch national side of
that era which included many players brought through the Ajax team). And, in the
modern game, there is Barcelona and “tiki taka”.

Defining a unique football style can be like

Latest updates
defining obscenity—you know it when you
The first data from a repository of living human
brain cells see it. But it is difficult to quantify exactly
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
how different a team such as Barcelona is
Why is the Dutch football team struggling? compared with its peers. Goals are the
THE ECONOMIST EXPLAINS
currency of football, but they tell us little
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than Britain thinks about teams’ modi operandi. People might
BRITAIN
come up with a broad shorthand—that, in
See all updates the case of tiki taka for example,
maintaining possession of the ball is the
defining characteristic. This is certainly true: Barcelona went an incredible 317
consecutive games (http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/3277/la-
liga/2013/09/21/4279535/barcelona-lose-possession-battle-for-first-time-in-317-
games) in which they had more than 50% possession. However, they aren't unique
in trying to accomplish this, they are merely better at it.

So is it possible to define tiki taka through statistics? Laszlo Gyarmati of the Qatar
Computing Research Institute and two colleagues have made a promising start. The
group conducted an analysis of the passing patterns of every team in Europe’s five
biggest leagues—England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy—during the 2012-13
season. One of their tools was principal component analysis
(http://georgemdallas.wordpress.com/2013/10/30/principal-component-analysis-4-
dummies-eigenvectors-eigenvalues-and-dimension-reduction/) , a technique
which measures the relative influence of factors within a set of data, rather than
just plotting those data on standard axes. The resulting paper
(http://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0308v1.pdf) was presented at the KDD Workshop on
Large-Scale Sports Analytics
(MOST%20armchair%20fans%20can%20broadly%20categorise%20football%20teams%20by%20the%20differe

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26/10/2017 A different ball game

ball”—
in%20which%20the%20midfield%20is%20bypassed%20as%20defenders%20shunt%20the%20ball%20toward
—
is%20particularly%20associated%20with%20some%20English%20sides.%20“Catenaccio”,%20whereby%20a%
attack,%20is%20a%20label%20often%20applied%20to%20Italians.%20The%20“pressing%20game”,%20which
51%20is%20alone%20in%20being%20described%20as%20the%20team%20of%20“push%20and%20run”.%20
—
you%20know%20it%20when%20you%20see%20it.%20But%20it%20is%20difficult%20to%20quantify%20exa
—
that%20,in%20the%20case%20of%20tiki%20taka,%20for%20exmample,%20maintaining%20possession%20o
%20It%20turns%20out%20that%20it%20is.%20Laszlo%20Gyarmati%20of%20the%20Qatar%20Computing%2
—England,%20Spain,%20Germany,%20France%20and%20Italy—
passed%20the%20ball%20during%20the%202012-
13%20season.%20One%20of%20the%20tools%20they%20used%20was%20principal%20component%20analy
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pass%20sequence%20there%20are%20five%20possible%20combinations.%20When%20he%20receives%20a%
pass%20sequences%20were%20analysed%20(in%20a%20four-
pass%20move,%20for%20example,%20there%20are%20two%20separate%20strings%20of%20three%20passe
—
not%20least%20because%20they%20poached%20the%20Barcelona%20manager%20most%20associated%20w
.

In a three-pass sequence there are five possible combinations. When he receives a

pass, a player can either return the ball whence it came or move it to a different
member of his side. That player can then pass it back to either of the two people
who have already been involved in the move or to someone new. These strings of
passes can be represented as: ABAB, ABAC, ABCA, ABCB and ABCD. For longer
periods of possession, component three-pass sequences were analysed (in a four-
pass move, for example, there are two separate strings of three passes).

As the chart above shows, when viewed in this way, all teams across Europe's five
big leagues cluster around a remarkably similar style; differences between them
can be plotted, but there are no outliers. Except one. Of the 98 sides (and over 1m
passes) that were studied, Barcelona, the researchers found, really do have a style
all of their own. They are characterised by a much greater propensity to play ABAC
and ABCB passing sequences, as well as ABAB (a trait they share with more teams).
In other words, having passed the ball, a player is very likely to receive it back
straight away.

Man on!

This puts the onus on the player passing the ball, who is likely to have an opponent
challenging him, then to move quickly so as to take the return. Logic also strongly
suggests it means prioritising possession over a quick, forward progression, as the
action occurs across a smaller area (although this is not explicitly proved by the
study).

Dr Gyarmati foresees powerful practical applications for this method. The most
promising area is probably player recruitment. Armed with a quantitative measure
of playing style, teams could break down how well potential acqusitions are likely
to fit in. That would enable them to identify players who would be particularly
well-suited to join their existing roster, and thus likely to make a contribution in
excess of their pay cheques.

It also suggests, at least in this instance, that being an outlier works. The Barcelona
side of tiki taka was the most successful of its age, winning three Champions
League titles since 2006 and Spain's La Liga four times in five seasons. But in the
past couple of years, the pack has begun to catch up. Indeed, Bayern Munich, the
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26/10/2017 A different ball game

side that many now consider the most likely to take Barcelona's mantle, play in a
way clearly influenced by tiki taka—not least because they poached the Barcelona
manager most associated with the style, Pep Guardiola. Just as in business, the only
thing harder than coming up with a breakthrough innovation is keeping it out of
the hands of the competition.

(Photo credit: JOSE JORDAN / AFP)

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