Good Show Despite Inventory Losses: Oil Marketing Companies

Oil Marketing Companies
India Equity Research | Oil & Gas

August 14, 2017
Sector Update Emkay
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Good show despite inventory losses
BPCL ACCUMULATE
 Despite inventory losses, OMCs (except BPCL) have reported robust numbers, driven by
strong core GRMs and improvement in marketing margins. Core earnings (adjusted for CMP Target Price
inventory gains/losses and FX gains/losses) came in at Rs9.3/14.7/6.5 per share for 479 529
BPCL/HPCL/IOCL versus reported EPS of Rs5.7/9.1/5.5 per share. Relative price chart
 Marketing margin of BPCL/HPCL improved by 1%/18% qoq to Rs4,234/4,935/mt. 550 Rs % 30
However, IOCL’s margin contracted by 1.8% qoq to Rs3,756/mt. Total debt of OMCs 510 22
increased by 34% qoq, as Q4FY17 higher borrowing was mainly for dividend payout and 470 14
excise duty payment (which was paid in Q1FY18 - partially through internal accruals and 430 6
cash compensation received from the government). Interest cost also declined by 32%
390 -2
qoq to Rs10.4bn.
350 -10
 Adjusting for refining inventory gains/losses, GRM for BPCL/HPCL/IOCL came in at Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17
BPCL (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)

US$6.95/8.8/6.4/bbl. Gross UR on kerosene stood at Rs12.8bn, which was entirely
compensated by govt. and thus there was nil burden on OMCs.
HPCL BUY
 Earlier, our preferred pick was IOCL, but due to OFS announcement and concern on
CMP Target Price
ONGC stake sale for HPCL acquisition, the stock will remain range bound in Rs370-420
zone unless any further clarity. We believe that the benefit of higher GRMs from the 438 505
Paradip refinery are yet to materialize and maintain BUY on IOCL, HPCL and Relative price chart
ACCUMULATE on BPCL. 475 Rs % 50
  HPCL outperformed on core GRM: Adjusting for refining inventory gains/losses, GRM for 430 38
BPCL/HPCL/IOCL stood at US$6.95/8.8/6.4/bbl, which was higher than expectations. 385 26
HPCL’s reported GRM was better than peers at US$5.88/bbl against GRM of 340 14
US$4.32/4.88/bbl for IOCL/BPCL.

295 2
 Blended marketing margins expand qoq: Despite inventory loss and implementation of 250 -10
daily pricing, OMCs (except IOC) have shown improvement in marketing margins, which Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17
HPCL (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)

we believe is the key positive in Q1FY18 results. Marketing margin of BPCL/HPCL
improved by 1%/18% qoq to Rs4,234/4,935/mt. However, IOCL’s margin contracted qoq
by 1.8% to Rs3,756/mt. Gross marketing margin in Petrol averaged Rs1.89/ltr during FY17 Indian Oil BUY
while diesel’s averaged Rs2.28/ltr. CMP Target Price
 Market share improved: BPCL/HPCL/IOCL improved market share by 10/10/110 bps to 419 496
20.6%/18.1%/44.1% while the private players lost market share by 140bps to 17.2%.
Relative price chart
 Borrowings and interest cost declined qoq: In Q1FY18 total debt of OMCs declined by 450 Rs % 60
34% qoq, as in Q4FY17 higher borrowing was mainly for dividend payout and excise duty
410 46
payment (which was paid in Q1FY18 partially through internal accruals and cash
compensation received from govt). Thus, interest cost declined by 32% qoq to Rs10.4bn. 370 32
 Outlook and valuation: Nothing much has changed operationally and fundamentally, and 330 18
weak Q1FY18 numbers are also discounted. Coming quarters are likely to be strong 290 4
looking at the robust GRMs currently. Moreover, interaction with OMCs’ management 250 -10
Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17
reveals GST impact of Rs45bn, which would be passed on to the consumers through State
Indian Oil (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)
Specific Charges (expected hike of 34p/ltr). Also, daily price revision shows stable margins
so far and this would help in reducing inventory losses to a large extent at the refining level.
OMCs have recently stated that losses on Digital Discounts and MDR would be recovered
This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The
through dynamic pricing. Also, in Q1FY18, private players lost market share by 140bps. following person(s) are responsible for the
OMCs current valuations stand at 10-11x on FY18E EPS, which is still lower than production of the recommendation:
international peers (trade at 13-14x PE). Within OMCs, we prefer BPCL, as commissioning
Dhaval Joshi
of Kochi expansion will add volume and incremental GRM from H2FY18 onwards, which dhaval.joshi@emkayglobal.com
would be a key catalyst going forward. +91 22 66121282
 Earlier, our preferred pick was IOCL, but due to OFS announcement and concern on ONGC
stake sale for HPCL acquisition, the stock will remain range bound in Rs370-420 zone
unless any further clarity. We believe that the benefit of higher GRMs from the Paradip
refinery are yet to materialize and maintain BUY on IOCL, HPCL and ACCUMULATE on
BPCL.
Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES.
ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA

Oil Marketing Companies India Equity Research | Sector Update
Exhibit 1: Over-view of OMC’s Reported GRM
GRM declined on inventory Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18

losses though core GRM was BPCL Avg. GRM (USD/bbl) 6.1 3.08 5.90 6.01 4.88
better than benchmark GRM HPCL Avg. GRM (USD/bbl) 6.8 3.20 6.38 7.99 5.86
IOCL Avg. GRM (USD/bbl) 9.98 4.30 7.67 8.95 4.32
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Exhibit 2: Marketing Margin

Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
BPCL Marketing margin (Rs/mt) 4,210 4047 4136 4192 4234
Despite implementation of daily Marketing margin (USD/bbl) 8.59 8.24 8.37 8.53 9.00
pricing, marketing margin HPCL Marketing margin - (Rs/Mt) 4,410 4668 4058 4168 4935
improved by 6.1% qoq to Marketing margin (USD/bbl) 9.00 9.5 8.2 8.5 10.5
Rs4,308/mt (avg of OMCs) IOCL Marketing margin (Rs/mt) 3,695 3776 3848 3825 3756
Marketing margin (USD/bbl) 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0
Exhibit 3: Debt & Interest

BPCL Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Total loan 1,59,640 1,60,560 1,62,740 2,31,592 1,79,170
Interest 1,111 1,024 1,349 1,475 1,789
Interest rate (%) 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.5 4.0
HPCL
Total loan fund 1,77,320 1,78,000 1,54,000 2,12,500 1,22,080
Interest 1,395 1,164 530 2,268 1,430
Borrowings of all the 3 OMCs Interest rate 3.1 2.6 1.4 4.3 4.7
declined qoq to Rs650bn from
Rs992bn in Q4FY17. Hence,
IOCL
interest cost also declined by
Total loan fund 3,94,970 4,18,850 3,78,110 5,48,200 3,49,220
32% qoq to Rs10.3bn
Interest 6,800 6,147 9,967 11,541 7,180
Interest rate 6.9 5.9 10.5 8.4 8.2
Total OMC Loan 7,31,930 7,57,410 6,94,850 9,92,292 6,50,470

Total OMC Interest 9,306 8,335 11,845 15,284 10,399
Interest Cost (%) 5.1 4.4 6.8 6.2 6.4
YoY Chg in Loan (%) -15.9% -10.0% -17.0% 36.0% -10.9%
QoQ Chg in Interest (%) -38.1% -10.4% 42.1% 29.0% -32.0%
ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 2

Exhibit 4: Under-Recovery
BPCL
Gross UR/(over) recovery 3,073 3,389.0 2,397.2 2,869.3 1,967.5
Upstream discount - - - - -
Govt compensation 3,073 3,389.0 2,397.2 2,869.3 1,967.5
Net under/(over) recovery
For Q1FY18, there was nil HPCL
underrecovery burden on OMCs Gross UR/(over) recovery 3,280 3,630.0 2,638.8 3,176.9 2,065.3
Upstream discount - - - - -
Govt compensation 3,280 3,630 2,639.0 2,639.0 2,639.0
IOCL
Gross UR/(over) recovery 13,320 14,526.4 10,950.0 12,695.7 8,760.0
Upstream discount - -
Govt compensation 13,320.0 14,526.4 10,950.0 12,695.7 8,760.0
Total
Total Gross UR 19,673 21,545 15,986 18,742 12,793
Total Upstream Discount - - - - -
Govt compensation 19,673 21,545 15,986 18,204 13,367
Total Net under-recovery - - - - -
Exhibit 5: Throughput & Market Sales

BPCL Crude Throughput (mmt) 6.2 6.4 6.8 6.0 6.4
Total market sales (mmt) 9.7 8.9 10.5 10.1 10.5
BPCL/HPCL/IOCL improved
market share by 10/10/110 bps to HPCL Crude Throughput (mmt) 4.5 4.0 4.7 4.6 4.5
20.6%/18.1%/44.1% resp. Total market sales (mmt) 8.9 8.2 9.3 8.9 9.3
IOCL Crude Throughput (mmt) 16.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.5

Total market sales (mmt) 21.4 19.7 21.3 21.1 22.5
Exhibit 6: OMC’s Inventory Gain /(Loss) and Forex Gain /(loss)

Rs Mn Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
BPCL Inventory Gain / (Loss) 12,830 (3,630) 6,650 4,022 (7,314)
BPCL Forex Gain / (Loss) (1,660) 141 (1,490) 3,318 292
HPCL Inventory Gain / (Loss) 11,000 (4,000) 7,000 7,000 (9,600)
HPCL Forex Gain / (Loss) (750) 200 (1,303) 3,330 1,120
IOCL Inventory Gain / (Loss) 23,790 (7,310) 9,570 9,160 (12,390)
IOCL Forex Gain / (Loss) (3,320) 2,540 (2,708) 15,010 6,120

Exhibit 7: Normalized profit trend

BPCL (Rs Mn) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18E
Reported PBT 37,415 18,489 32,491 22,033 11,136
Add/Less: Inventory loss/gain 12,830 (3,630) 6,650 4,022 (7,314)
Add/Less: Forex loss/gain -1,660 141 (1,490) 3,318 292
Add/Less: Exceptional loss/gain
Add: Prov for emp pay revision - - - - -
Add: Net under-recoveries - - - - -
Adjusted PBT 26,245 21,978 27,331 14,694 18,158
Tax 8,661 7,253 9,019 4,849 5,992
Adjusted PAT 17,584 14,725 18,312 9,845 12,166
Reported PAT 26,205 13,052 22,719 18,417 7,446
Adj. EPS 13.4 11.2 14.0 7.5 9.3
Reported EPS 20.0 10.0 17.3 14.0 5.7
HPCL (Rs Mn)

Reported PBT 31,518 10,755 24,046 28,385 13,883
Add/Less: Forex loss/gain -750 200 (1303) 3330 1120
Add/Less: Exceptional loss/gain
Add: Prov for emp pay revision 0 0 0 0
Add: Net under-recoveries - 0 0 0 0
Adjusted PBT 21,268 14,555 18,349 18,055 22,363
Tax 7,018 4,803 6,055 5,958 7,380
Adjusted PAT 14,249 9,752 12,294 12,097 14,983
Reported PAT 20,984 7,013 15,903 22,682 9,247.5
Adj. EPS 14 9.6 12.1 11.9 14.7
Reported EPS 21 6.9 15.7 17.9 9.1
IOC (Rs Mn)

Reported PBT 1,20,388 45,069 61,907 1,02,080 39,798
Add/Less: Forex loss/gain -3,320 2,540 (2,708) 15,010 6,120
Add/Less: Exceptional loss/gain - - - - -
Add: Prov for emp pay revision
Add: Net under-recoveries - - - - -
Adjusted PBT 99,918 49,839 55,045 77,910 46,068
Tax 32,973 16,447 18,165 25,710 14,511
Adjusted PAT 66,945 33,392 36,880 52,200 31,556
Reported PAT 82,690 31,219 39,949 68,393 26,665
Adj. EPS 13.8 6.9 7.6 10.7 6.5
Reported EPS 17.0 6.4 8.2 14.1 5.5

BPCL
Exhibit 8: Actuals vs Estimates
Consensus % variation
Actual Estimates estimates Comment
(bloomberg) Emkay Consensus
Sales 5,71,258 494238 544450 15.6 4.9
EBITDA 12,250 19574 21960 -37.4 -44.2
EBITDA margins 2.1 4.0 4.0 -181.6 -188.9
PAT 7,446 10840 14680 -31.3 -49.3 Below estimates on inventory losses
Exhibit 9: Quarterly Highlights

Rs. Mn. Q1FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY17 FY16 YoY (%)
Revenue 4,69,387 5,70,365 5,71,258 21.7 0.2 20,22,106 18,91,407 6.9
Expenditure 4,30,195 5,48,242 5,59,008 29.9 2.0 19,13,813 17,80,084 7.5
as % of sales 91.7 96.1 97.9 94.6 94.1
Consumption of RM 3,94,128 5,04,765 5,17,643 31.3 2.6 17,63,532 16,25,420 8.5
as % of sales 84.0 88.5 90.6 87.2 85.9
Employee Cost 6,493 14,368 8,087 24.5 -43.7 34,295 28,039 22.3
as % of sales 1.4 2.5 1.4 1.7 1.5
Other expenditure 29,574 29,109 33,278 12.5 14.3 1,15,986 1,26,626 -8.4
as % of sales 6.3 5.1 5.8 5.7 6.7
EBITDA 39,192 22,123 12,250 -68.7 -44.6 1,08,293 1,11,322 -2.7
Depreciation 4,315 5,238 5,892 36.6 12.5 18,913 18,514 2.2
EBIT 34,877 16,884 6,358 -81.8 -62.3 89,380 92,809 -3.7
Other Income 3,649 6,624 6,566 79.9 -0.9 26,007 20,199 28.8
Interest 1,111 1,475 1,789 61.0 21.3 4,959 5,645 -12.2
PBT 37,415 22,033 11,136 -70.2 -49.5 1,10,428 1,07,363 2.9
Total Tax 11,210 3,616 3,690 -67.1 2.0 30,035 32,479
Adjusted PAT 26,205 18,417 7,446 -71.6 -59.6 80,393 74,884 7.4
(Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI
APAT after MI 26,205 18,417 7,446 -71.6 -59.6 80,393 74,884 7.4
Extra ordinary items
Reported PAT 26,205 18,417 7,446 -71.6 -59.6 80,393 74,884 7.4
Reported EPS 20.0 14.0 5.7 -71.6 -59.6 61.3 57.1 7.4
Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps)

EBIDTA 8.3 3.9 2.1 -620.5 -173.4 5.4 5.9 -53.0
EBIT 7.4 3.0 1.1 -631.7 -184.7 4.4 4.9 -48.7
EBT 8.0 3.9 1.9 -602.2 -191.4 5.5 5.7 -21.5
PAT 5.6 3.2 1.3 -427.9 -192.6 4.0 4.0 1.7
Effective Tax rate 30.0 16.4 33.1 317.6 1672.4 27.2 30.3 -305.3
Exhibit 10: Valuation Table

BPCL (Rs./share) FY18E Multiple Value per share
Standalone EPS 36 12 437
Investment Value 59
E&P Value 33
Fair Value 529

Key Takeaways from BPCL concall

 GRM breakup - Core GRM at $6.95/ bbl. While Refining Inventory loss at
$2.07/bbl. Mumbai Refinery GRM at - $6.08/bbl excluding inventory loss of $1.55/bbl
(6.08+1.55 = $7.63/bbl). While Kochi Refinery GRM at $3.74/bbl excluding $2.4/bbl
($3.74+2.4=$6.15/bbl).
 Other details - Other operating expenses have increased due to 1) increase in repairs and
maintenance including of Kochi refinery related and 2) increase in consumption of LNG for
Kochi expansion (to the tune of Rs120cr). However, Mgmt. has indicated Kochi Opex at
$1.8/bbl and Mumbai refinery opex at $1.9/bbl for ensuing quarters.
 Employee expenses - EE has gone up due to change in pay structure and will be at similar
run rate for ensuing quarters.
 Lower throughput in Q1 is largely attributable to maintenance shut down in MR and in Q2
Kochi refinery will be shut down for maintenance.
 Mozambique - FDI in the final stages of approval.
 Bina Refinery - GRM after inventory losses at $8.9/bbl, and PAT at Rs1.46bn. NRL- GRM
$7.5/bbl and PAT at Rs3.71bn.
 Market Share within PSU - in Petrol – 28.81% (28.51% in Q1FY17) and Diesel at 28.56%
(28.84% in Q1FY17)
 In Q1FY18 petrol volume grew by 9.8% highest amongst the peers while in Diesel it grew
marginally by 1.9% against HP/IO of 3%.
 Kochi Refinery expansion - All the major units are commissioned except FCCU which
will commence from September. Mgmt. indicated Utilization level at 70-80% in Q2, 90% in
Q3 and 100% in Q4. Expect robust GRM from Q3 onwards from Kochi (~1.5-2/bbl
incremental)
 Capex - for FY18 Rs78bn out of which Rs13-14bn for refinery, Rs12bn for E&P and balance
for marketing. In FY19 company has guided Rs85bn out of which Rs26bn for petchem,
Rs15bn for E&P, Rs12bn for BSVI petrol, and balance for marketing.
 On Daily pricing - There has been no change in marketing margin on Non retail fuel. While
retail fuels are impacted marginally on daily pricing
 US crude cargo – Expect 1st shipment in OCT. and will be mainly use for Kochi refinery.
 GST – Total Rs10bn impact due to GST in FY18.
 Debt – At Rs179bn

Key Financials (Standalone) - BPCL

Income Statement
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Revenue 23,80,869 18,93,033 13,99,292 15,77,974 16,09,533
Expenditure 22,97,722 17,82,471 12,66,578 14,33,366 14,54,873
EBITDA 83,147 1,10,563 1,32,713 1,44,608 1,54,661
Depreciation 25,160 18,543 22,123 28,640 31,140
EBIT 57,986 92,020 1,10,590 1,15,968 1,23,520
Other Income 22,000 20,122 20,109 20,369 23,158
Interest expenses 5,831 5,629 9,605 17,608 17,448
PBT 74,155 1,06,512 1,21,094 1,18,729 1,29,231
Tax 23,310 32,193 40,567 39,774 43,292
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0
Minority Int./Income from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 0
Reported Net Income 50,845 74,319 80,528 78,955 85,938
Adjusted PAT 50,845 74,319 80,528 78,955 85,938
Balance Sheet
Equity share capital 7,231 7,231 14,462 21,693 21,693
Reserves & surplus 2,17,444 2,64,356 2,98,939 3,17,723 3,50,721
Net worth 2,24,675 2,71,587 3,13,401 3,39,415 3,72,414
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Loan Funds 1,17,773 1,37,096 1,92,096 2,20,096 2,18,096
Net deferred tax liability 17,083 22,289 22,289 22,289 22,289
Total Liabilities 3,59,530 4,30,972 5,27,786 5,81,801 6,12,799
Net block 2,03,151 2,34,678 2,87,555 3,23,914 3,27,774
Investment 1,23,911 1,29,737 1,29,737 1,29,737 1,29,737
Current Assets 2,93,570 2,69,300 1,98,987 2,28,244 2,33,583
Cash & bank balance 13,602 20,674 15,207 20,997 22,191
Other Current Assets 61,057 41,057 30,348 34,224 34,908
Current liabilities & Provision 3,37,759 3,28,922 2,44,671 2,78,274 2,86,474
Net current assets (44,189) (59,622) (45,684) (50,029) (52,891)
Misc. exp (7) (7) (7) (7) (7)
Total Assets 3,59,530 4,30,972 5,27,786 5,81,801 6,12,799
Cash Flow
PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 73,718 1,06,452 1,21,094 1,18,729 1,29,231
Other Non-Cash items (8,934) (11,317) (8,839) 6,473 5,296
Chg in working cap 1,17,160 7,204 -19,403 10,135 4,055
Operating Cashflow 1,81,944 1,02,339 92,852 1,35,337 1,38,582
Capital expenditure (80,349) (93,745) (1,05,000) (87,000) (65,000)
Free Cash Flow 1,01,595 8,594 (12,148) 48,337 73,582
Investments 3,882 15,503 0 0 0
Other Investing Cash Flow (2,623) (315) 0 0 0
Investing Cashflow (79,091) (78,557) (1,05,000) (87,000) (65,000)
Equity Capital Raised 0 0 0 0 0
Loans Taken / (Repaid) (70,296) 20,527 55,000 28,000 -2,000
Dividend paid (incl tax) (14,258) -32,784 -38,714 -52,940 -52,940
Other Financing Cash Flow (6,769) (7,867) (9,605) (17,608) (17,448)
Financing Cashflow (91,323) (20,124) 6,681 (42,548) (72,388)
Net chg in cash 11,565 3,659 (5,466) 5,790 1,194
Opening cash position 2,038 13,602 20,674 15,207 20,997
Closing cash position 13,602 20,674 15,207 20,997 22,191

Key Ratios
Profitability (%) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
EBITDA Margin 3.5 5.8 9.5 9.2 9.6
EBIT Margin 2.4 4.9 7.9 7.3 7.7
Effective Tax Rate 31.4 30.2 33.5 33.5 33.5
Net Margin 2.1 3.9 5.8 5.0 5.3
ROCE 20.8 28.4 27.3 24.6 24.6
ROE 24.3 30.0 27.5 24.2 24.1
RoIC 28.8 61.4 58.0 48.4 48.9
Per Share Data (Rs) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

EPS 35.2 51.4 55.7 36.4 39.6
CEPS 52.6 64.2 71.0 49.6 54.0
BVPS 155.4 187.8 216.7 156.5 171.7
DPS 11.2 15.5 22.7 20.7 20.7
Valuations (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

PER 13.6 9.3 8.6 13.2 12.1
P/CEPS 9.2 7.5 6.8 9.8 9.0
P/BV 3.1 2.5 2.2 3.1 2.8
EV / Sales 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7
EV / EBITDA 8.1 6.1 5.6 7.7 7.1
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 3.2 4.7 4.3 4.3
Gearing Ratio (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Net Debt/ Equity (0.1) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Net Debt/EBIDTA (0.2) (0.1) 0.4 0.5 0.4
Working Cap Cycle (days) (8.9) (15.5) (15.9) (16.4) (17.0)
Growth (%) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Revenue (8.4) (20.5) (26.1) 12.8 2.0
EBITDA 2.8 33.0 20.0 9.0 7.0
EBIT (0.7) 58.7 20.2 4.9 6.5
PAT 25.2 46.2 8.4 (2.0) 8.8
Quarterly (Rs mn) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18

Revenue 4,69,387 4,46,927 5,35,427 5,70,365 5,71,258
EBITDA 39,192 13,814 33,165 22,123 1,2250
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.3 3.1 6.2 3.9 2.1
PAT 26,205 13,052 22,719 18,417 7,446
EPS (Rs) 18.1 9 15.7 12.7 5.7
Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

Promoters 54.9 54.9 54.9 54.9 54.9
FIIs 21.9 22.1 22.7 22.5 22.2
DIIs 7.8 7.1 6.7 6.8 7.1
Public and Others 15.4 15.9 15.7 15.8 15.9
Source: Capitaline

HPCL
Sales 5,34,685 494197 479965 8.2 11.4
EBITDA 16,280 15378 21609 5.9 -24.7
EBITDA margins 3.0 3.1 4.5 -6.7 -145.7
PAT 9,247 7012 11097 31.9 -16.7 Above estimates on better than expected GRM

Rs mn Q1FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY17 FY16 YoY (%)
Revenue 4,48,408 5,15,247 5,34,685 19.2 3.8 18,70,236 17,95,712 4.2
Expenditure 4,12,139 4,81,893 5,18,405 25.8 7.6 13,47,832 12,29,240 9.6
as % of sales 91.9 93.5 97.0 72.1 68.5
Consumption of RM 3,80,827 4,50,847 4,83,893 27.1 7.3 12,53,326 11,16,149 12.3
as % of sales 84.9 87.5 90.5 67.0 62.2
Employee Cost 6,145 6,666 6,984 13.7 4.8 18,821 16,805 12.0
as % of sales 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9
Other expenditure 25,167 24,380 27,528 9.4 12.9 75,685 96,286 -21.4
as % of sales 5.6 4.7 5.1 4.0 5.4
EBITDA 36,268 33,355 16,280 -55.1 -51.2 73,997 48,439 52.8
Depreciation 6,108 6,749 6,671 9.2 -1.2 19,244 19,160 0.4
EBIT 30,160 26,605 9,609 -68.1 -63.9 54,752 29,279 87.0
Other Income 2,753 4,047 5,703 107.2 40.9 12,395 9,071 36.6
Interest 1,395 2,268 1,430 2.5 -37.0 3,962 5,174 -23.4
PBT 31,518 28,385 13,883 -56.0 -51.1 63,185 33,177 90.5
Total Tax 10,534 5,702 4,636 -56.0 -18.7 17,587 10,430 68.6
Adjusted PAT 20,984 22,682 9,247 -55.9 -59.2 45,599 22,747 100.5
(Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI - - - - -
APAT after MI 20,984 22,682 9,247 -55.9 -59.2 45,599 22,747 100.5
Extra ordinary items - - - - -
Reported PAT 20,984 22,682 9,247 -55.9 -59.2 45,599 22,747 100.5
Reported EPS 20.7 17.9 9.1 -55.9 -49.2 40.5 42.9

EBIDTA 8.1 6.5 3.0 -504.3 -342.9 4.0 2.7 126
EBIT 6.7 5.2 1.8 -492.9 -336.6 2.9 1.6 130
EBT 7.0 5.5 2.6 -443.2 -291.2 3.4 1.8 153
PAT 4.7 4.4 1.7 -295.0 -267.3 2.4 1.3 117
Effective Tax rate 33.4 20.1 33.4 -3.2 1330.1 27.8 31.4 -360

HPCL (INR/share) FY18E Multiple Value per share
Standalone EPS 38 10.5 395
Bhatinda EPS 8 10.5 82
Investment Value 28
Fair Value 505

Key Financials (Consolidated) - HPCL

Income Statement
Revenue 20,66,262 17,95,712 13,38,696 16,30,412 21,73,883
Expenditure 20,09,627 17,16,643 12,31,476 15,15,756 20,59,602
EBITDA 56,635 79,069 1,07,221 1,14,656 1,14,281
Depreciation 19,712 26,668 27,659 29,445 31,231
EBIT 36,923 52,402 79,562 85,211 83,050
Other Income 11,684 11,381 9,668 9,724 9,565
PBT 41,541 57,381 81,020 85,913 83,463
Tax 14,209 18,753 26,818 28,437 27,626
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0 0
Reported Net Income 27,333 38,627 54,202 57,476 55,837
Adjusted PAT 27,333 38,627 54,202 57,476 55,837
Balance Sheet
Net worth 1,60,222 1,83,561 1,96,696 2,13,002 2,27,770
Loan Funds 1,70,555 1,45,220 1,83,220 2,03,220 2,23,220
Net block 2,90,628 3,34,458 3,44,799 3,53,354 3,60,123
Investment 1,12,415 1,09,947 1,09,947 1,09,947 1,09,947
Current Assets 2,37,719 2,41,535 1,72,151 2,28,126 3,48,260
Cash & bank balance 171 197 2,624 21,657 72,968
Net current assets (65,974) (86,288) (78,996) (84,644) (73,645)
Misc. exp 0 0 1 1 1
Total Assets 3,71,814 3,76,886 4,28,021 4,64,428 4,99,196
Cash Flow
PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 41,541 57,381 81,020 85,913 83,463
Other Non-Cash items 12,384 25,282 9,051 10,030 12,757
Chg in working cap 1,24,486 (14,576) (4,865) 24,681 40,312
Operating Cashflow 1,78,411 68,087 85,206 1,20,624 1,36,532
Capital expenditure (41,762) (47,046) (71,500) (71,500) (55,000)
Free Cash Flow 1,36,649 21,041 13,706 49,124 81,532
Investments (148) (2,965) 0 0 0
Other Investing Cash Flow 0 (791) 0 0 0
Investing Cashflow (32,913) (43,652) (71,500) (71,500) (55,000)
Loans Taken / (Repaid) (1,23,807) (339) 38,000 20,000 20,000
Dividend paid (incl tax) (6,136) (17,492) (41,069) (41,069) (41,069)
Other Financing Cash Flow (7,647) (6,615) (8,210) (9,022) (9,152)
Financing Cashflow (1,37,590) (24,446) (11,279) (30,091) (30,221)
Net chg in cash 7,908 (11) 2,427 19,033 51,311
Opening cash position (7,737) 208 197 2,624 21,657
Closing cash position 171 197 2,624 21,657 72,968

Key Ratios
EBITDA Margin 2.7 4.4 8.0 7.0 5.3
EBIT Margin 1.8 2.9 5.9 5.2 3.8
Net Margin 1.3 2.2 4.0 3.5 2.6
ROCE 11.0 17.0 22.2 21.3 19.2
ROE 17.6 22.5 28.5 28.1 25.3
RoIC 12.8 22.2 31.1 33.4 36.1

EPS 26.9 38.0 53.3 37.7 36.6
CEPS 46.2 64.2 80.5 57.0 57.0
BVPS 157.5 180.4 193.3 139.6 149.2
DPS 36.8 51.8 34.5 23.0 23.0

PER 16.3 11.6 8.2 11.6 12.0
P/CEPS 8.6 6.2 5.0 7.0 7.0
P/BV 2.8 2.4 2.3 3.1 2.9
EV / Sales 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3
EV / EBITDA 8.9 6.1 4.8 6.5 6.2
Dividend Yield (%) 8.4 11.8 7.9 5.2 5.2

Net Debt/ Equity 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Net Debt/EBIDTA 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4

Revenue (7.5) (13.1) (25.5) 21.8 33.3
EBITDA 8.1 39.6 35.6 6.9 (0.3)
EBIT 21.6 41.9 51.8 7.1 (2.5)
PAT 57.6 41.3 40.3 6.0 (2.9)

Revenue 4,48,408 4,21,025 4,85,556 5,15,247 5,34,685
EBITDA 36,268 12,609 28,033 33,355 16,280
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.1 3.0 5.8 6.5 3.0
PAT 20,984 7,013 15,903 22,682 9,247
EPS (Rs) 13.7 4.6 10.4 14.9 6.1

Promoters 51.1 51.1 51.1 51.1 51.1
FIIs 19.4 17.3 17.7 16.9 16.9
DIIs 14.5 12.3 10.0 9.6 10.1
Source: Capitaline

Indian Oil
Sales 10,26,262 904377 964020 13.5 6.5
EBITDA 51,915 59543 62257 -12.8 -16.6
EBITDA margins 5.1 6.6 6.5 -152.5 -139.9
PAT 26,665 28260 31115 61.0 46.2 Marginally below estimates on higher inventory losses

Rs Mn. Q1FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY17 FY16 YoY (%)
Revenue 8,60,807 10,03,375 10,26,262 19.2 2.3 35,99,051 35,06,031 2.7
Expenditure 7,23,972 8,93,058 9,74,347 34.6 9.1 32,14,690 33,05,213 -2.7
as % of sales 84.1% 89.0% 94.9% 89.3% 94.3%
Consumption of RM 6,37,009 7,96,730 8,78,246 37.9 10.2 28,35,759 28,95,011 -2.0
as % of sales 74.0% 79.4% 85.6% 78.8% 82.6%
Employee Cost 17,716 25,812 24,141 36.3 -6.5 80,371 76,371 5.2
as % of sales 2.1% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2%
Other expenditure 69,247 70,516 71,960 3.9 2.0 2,98,559 3,33,831 -10.6
as % of sales 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.3% 9.5%
EBITDA 1,36,835 1,10,317 51,915 -62.1 -52.9 3,84,361 2,00,818 91.4
Depreciation 14,350 17,290 17,213 20.0 -0.4 62,230 48,528 28.2
EBIT 1,22,485 93,027 34,702 -71.7 -62.7 3,22,131 1,52,290 111.5
Other Income 4,703 20,593 12,276 161.0 -40.4 41,767 22,463 85.9
Interest 6,800 11,541 7,180 5.6 -37.8 34,454 30,001 14.8
PBT 1,20,388 1,02,080 39,798 -66.9 -61.0 3,29,444 1,44,753 127.6
Total Tax 37,698 33,686 13,133 -65.2 -61.0 1,07,192 54,405 97.0
Adjusted PAT 82,690 68,393 26,665 -67.8 -61.0 2,22,251 90,348 146.0
(Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI - -
APAT after MI 82,690 68,393 26,665 -67.8 -61.0 2,22,251 90,348 146.0
Extra ordinary items - - (13,643) -100.0
Reported PAT 82,690 68,393 45,485 -45.0 -33.5 2,22,251 1,03,990 113.7
Reported EPS 17.5 7.9 9.6 -45.0 22.3 40 12 243.2

EBITDA 15.9 11.0 5.1 -1083.7 -1094.4 10.7 5.7 495.2
EBIT 14.2 9.3 3.4 -1084.8 -923.8 9.0 4.3 460.7
EBT 14.0 10.2 3.9 -1010.8 -1013.5 9.2 4.1 502.5
PAT 9.6 6.8 4.4 -517.4 -677.2 6.2 3.0 320.9
Effective Tax rate 31.3 33.0 33.0 168.6 -3267.0 32.5 37.6 -504.7

Indian Oil (Rs./share) FY18E Multiple Value per share
EPS 42 10.5 439
Investment Value 56
Fair Value 496
Source: Emkay Research, Company

Key takeaways from IOCL concall

 On Paradip refinery - Paradip refinery capacity utilisation in MAY and June at 100% and
from July it has been at 105% utilisation. All the secondary units are stabilised and mgmt.
expect double digit GRM from Q3 onwards. Evacuation pipeline of ~1069km has been
commissioned. Opex for the quarter at $1.4/bbl and depreciation for the quarter at $2.45/bbl
 GRM - Core GRM for the Q1FY18 at $6.44/barrel. Paradip GRM at $4.05/bbl
 Capex - FY18 Capex guidance is at Rs20k cr. This includes a capex of Rs.4500cr for
refineries, Rs.1900cr. for pipeline, Rs.6000cr. for marketing, Rs.3000cr. for E&P, Rs.1200
cr. for petrochemicals and balance Rs3400cr for others. Over a period capex will increase
in ensuing year for refining expansion mainly in Mathura, Haldia, Baroni.
 On Mundra LNG - still on discussion and needs to be fanned out.
 West coast Refinery - Land acquisition of west coast is in process. Expect completion
within 7-10yrs.
 Debt reduction qoq – QoQ decline in debt was account of partial payment of Rs5000cr
(out of Rs7000cr cash compensation) received from govt. and rest was excise, VAT and
some accruals of Rs2000cr.
 Russian acquisition – Expect 1st dividend from Q2. As of now has been accounted in
Singapore subsidiary and it will reflect in consol earnings.
 On LPG price hike - LPG U/R are at Rs102/cyl. Price hike of Rs4/cyl every month till under
recovery becomes zero. As of now OMCs are not affected by underrecovery.
 GST impact - Prices will not be increased immediately considering GST. Total GST impact
is around Rs4000-5000cr.
 Marketing EBITDA - Marketing EBITDA has gone up due to growth in volume, sales
however there is no improvement in margin.

Key Financials (Standalone) – Indian Oil

Income Statement
Net Sales 43,75,261 35,06,031 33,50,299 38,86,724 58,79,740
Expenditure 42,73,791 33,05,213 29,86,284 34,87,541 54,63,798
EBITDA 1,01,471 2,00,818 3,64,014 3,99,184 4,15,942
Depreciation 45,287 48,528 69,535 81,252 88,002
EBIT 56,184 1,52,290 2,94,480 3,17,932 3,27,941
Other Income 41,441 22,463 31,308 32,264 32,367
PBT 63,272 1,44,753 2,88,190 3,13,299 3,24,110
Tax 27,223 54,405 95,103 1,03,389 1,06,956
Extraordinary Items 16,681 13,643 0 0 0
Reported Net Income 52,730 1,03,990 1,93,087 2,09,910 2,17,154
Adjusted PAT 36,049 90,348 1,93,087 2,09,910 2,17,154
Balance Sheet
Net worth 6,79,700 7,39,487 8,87,511 10,55,175 12,30,083
Loan Funds 4,97,106 4,24,859 5,37,106 5,27,106 5,17,106
Net block 6,62,513 9,08,950 9,89,415 10,58,163 11,20,162
Investment 2,38,995 2,39,753 2,39,753 2,39,753 2,39,753
Current Assets 9,33,750 9,07,142 10,20,926 11,74,290 17,68,936
Cash & bank balance 1,119 5,129 1,58,980 1,74,336 2,56,229
Net current assets (20,737) (99,901) 1,09,905 98,821 1,01,730
Misc. exp 2 1 1 2 1
Total Assets 12,44,008 12,59,024 15,19,296 16,76,960 18,41,867
Cash Flow
PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 79,952 1,58,395 2,88,190 3,13,299 3,24,110
Other Non-Cash items 26,795 49,894 12,029 14,760 17,243
Chg in working cap 3,38,126 24,588 (55,956) 26,441 78,984
Operating Cashflow 4,44,873 2,32,877 2,44,263 3,54,500 4,20,337
Capital expenditure (1,11,820) (1,27,900) (1,20,000) (2,50,000) (2,50,000)
Free Cash Flow 3,33,053 1,04,977 1,24,263 1,04,500 1,70,337
Investments 5,531 7,144 0 0 0
Other Investing Cash Flow 20,188 486 0 0 0
Investing Cashflow (86,100) (1,20,271) (1,20,000) (2,50,000) (2,50,000)
Loans Taken / (Repaid) (3,14,304) 40,818 1,12,247 (10,000) (10,000)
Dividend paid (incl tax) (24,709) (35,202) (45,063) (42,246) (42,246)
Other Financing Cash Flow (44,727) (1,14,249) (37,597) (36,898) (36,198)
Financing Cashflow (3,83,740) (1,08,633) 29,587 (89,144) (88,444)
Net chg in cash (24,967) 3,973 1,53,850 15,356 81,893
Opening cash position 26,088 1,156 5,129 1,58,980 1,74,336
Closing cash position 1,120 5,129 1,58,980 1,74,336 2,56,229

Key Ratios
EBITDA Margin 2.3 5.7 10.9 10.3 7.1
EBIT Margin 1.3 4.3 8.8 8.2 5.6
Net Margin 0.8 2.6 5.8 5.4 3.7
ROCE 7.1 14.0 23.5 21.9 20.5
ROE 5.4 12.7 23.7 21.6 19.0
RoIC 7.2 21.1 33.8 33.1 33.7

EPS 10.9 21.4 39.8 43.2 44.7
CEPS 16.7 28.6 54.1 60.0 62.8
BVPS 140.0 152.3 182.8 217.3 253.3
DPS 3.3 14.0 8.0 7.5 7.5

PER 38.6 19.6 10.5 9.7 9.4
P/CEPS 24.7 14.4 7.6 6.9 6.6
P/BV 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.7
EV / Sales 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4
EV / EBITDA 22.6 11.0 6.0 5.4 4.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 3.3 1.9 1.8 1.8

Net Debt/ Equity 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Net Debt/EBIDTA 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1

Revenue (7.5) (19.9) (4.4) 16.0 51.3
EBITDA (35.4) 97.9 81.3 9.7 4.2
EBIT (43.5) 171.1 93.4 8.0 3.1
PAT (24.9) 97.2 85.7 8.7 3.5

Revenue 8,60,807 8,03,701 9,31,167 10,03,375 10,26,262
EBITDA 1,36,835 57,722 79,486 1,10,317 51,915
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.9 7.2 8.5 11.0 5.1
PAT 82,690 31,219 39,949 68,393 26,665
EPS (Rs) 17.0 6.4 8.2 14.1 5.5

Promoters 58.3 58.3 58.3 57.3 57.3
FIIs 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.5
DIIs 12.3 11.1 11.1 11.7 10.8
Source: Capitaline

BPCL
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY TABLE RECOMMENDATION HISTORY CHART

Closing Period
Date TP Rating Analyst BUY Hold Sell
Price (months) Accumulate Reduce Price
Target Price
31-May-17 495 772 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi 775
15-Feb-17 450 772 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi
660
31-Jan-17 454 772 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi
545
16-Nov-16 423 587 12m Hold Dhaval Joshi
430
29-Sep-16 407 587 12m Hold Dhaval Joshi
06-Sep-16 399 587 12m Hold Dhaval Joshi 315
16-Aug-14
13-Aug-15
09-Aug-16
06-Aug-17
13-Feb-15
10-Feb-16
06-Feb-17
08-Aug-16 405 587 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
02-Jun-16 334 587 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
30-May-16 333 587 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
12-Feb-16 258 488 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
26-Nov-15 302 488 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
03-Sep-15 279 489 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
06-Jan-15 213 427 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
20-Oct-14 232 380 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
HPCL

Closing Period
Target Price
20-Jun-17 357 419 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi 475
31-May-17 369 419 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
398
321
244

16-Aug-14
13-Aug-15
09-Aug-16
06-Aug-17
13-Feb-15
10-Feb-16
06-Feb-17

30-May-16 203 263 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
29-May-15 150 154 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
20-Oct-14 117 122 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi

Indian Oil

Closing Period
Target Price
31-May-17 429 496 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi 500
430
360
290
16-Aug-14
13-Aug-15
09-Aug-16
06-Aug-17
13-Feb-15
10-Feb-16
06-Feb-17
02-Jun-16 210 285 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
30-May-16 202 285 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
15-Feb-16 194 267 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
26-Nov-15 211 267 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
10-Nov-15 200 237 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
03-Sep-15 200 237 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
18-Aug-15 200 237 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
01-Jun-15 177 216 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
18-Feb-15 166 216 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
06-Jan-15 167 216 12m BUY Dhaval Joshi
18-Nov-14 177 221 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi
20-Oct-14 190 221 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi
22-Sep-14 187 221 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi
18-Aug-14 176 207 12m Accumulate Dhaval Joshi

Emkay Rating Distribution

BUY Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 25% within the next 12-18 months.
ACCUMULATE Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of over 10% within the next 12-18 months.
HOLD Expected total return (%) (Stock price appreciation and dividend yield) of upto 10% within the next 12-18 months.
REDUCE Expected total return (%) (Stock price depreciation) of upto (-) 10% within the next 12-18 months.
SELL The stock is believed to underperform the broad market indices or its related universe within the next 12-18 months.
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

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Oil Marketing Companies

India Equity Research | Oil & Gas

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Good show despite inventory losses

BPCL (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)

BPCL/HPCL/IOCL stood at US$6.95/8.8/6.4/bbl, which was higher than expectations. 385 26

US$4.32/4.88/bbl for IOCL/BPCL.

HPCL (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS)

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA

Exhibit 1: Over-view of OMC’s Reported GRM

GRM declined on inventory Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18

Exhibit 2: Marketing Margin

Exhibit 3: Debt & Interest

Total OMC Loan 7,31,930 7,57,410 6,94,850 9,92,292 6,50,470

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 2

Exhibit 5: Throughput & Market Sales

IOCL Crude Throughput (mmt) 16.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.5

Exhibit 6: OMC’s Inventory Gain /(Loss) and Forex Gain /(loss)

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 3

Exhibit 7: Normalized profit trend

HPCL (Rs Mn)

IOC (Rs Mn)

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 4

Exhibit 9: Quarterly Highlights

Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps)

Exhibit 10: Valuation Table

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 5

Key Takeaways from BPCL concall

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 6

Key Financials (Standalone) - BPCL

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 7

Per Share Data (Rs) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Valuations (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Gearing Ratio (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Growth (%) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Quarterly (Rs mn) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18

Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 8

Exhibit 12: Quarterly Highlights

Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps)

Exhibit 13: Valuation Table

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 9

Key Financials (Consolidated) - HPCL

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 10

Per Share Data (Rs) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Valuations (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Gearing Ratio (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Growth (%) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Quarterly (Rs mn) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18

Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 11

Exhibit 15: Quarterly Highlights

Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps)

Exhibit 16: Valuation Table

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 12

Key takeaways from IOCL concall

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 13

Key Financials (Standalone) – Indian Oil

ED: HEMANT MARADIA SA: D. SINHA August 14, 2017 14

Per Share Data (Rs) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Valuations (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Gearing Ratio (x) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Growth (%) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E