DEMAND QUANTIFICATION AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY FOR

NORTHERN AND EASTERN SAMAR

Rainier Gemuel R. Tom1

1
Deparment of Mechanical Engineering,
University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101
Email : rrtom@up.edu.ph

Abstract: The researcher has quantified the power demand needed by the two provinces— Northern and Eastern Samar. With multi-
sectoral analysis, it has been found that these two provinces lack at the industrial sector thus emphasizing energy demands into other
sectors. Given the geographic characteristics and the quantification of these two provinces, a power plant can be placed to meet their
power demands.

INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY
2.1 General Information

Located in the eastern part of Visayas, the middle

island group in the Philippines, Northern Samar covers a
total area of 3,692.93 sq. kms while bordering the
province to the southeast is Eastern Sarmar which covers
a total area of 4,660.47 sq. kms. Northern Samar boasts of
its wealth in minerals such as copper, aluminum and
bauxite. Main source of livelihood and income in the
province is agriculture which involves production of
crops and raising of livestock with palay production as a
major crop produced in the province. Moreover, fishery is
also one of its source of livelihood as Northern Samar has
already established fishery activities that would assist in
providing income for the Northehanons. Similarly, Fig. 1 Northern and Eastern Samar location (Villar, 2003)
Eastern Samar’s economic activity revolves around Provinces Nothern and Eastern Samar are located at
metric toning which includes production of coconut, Eastern Visayas also known as Region VIII.
copra, corn, and rice. It is also well-known for its
untapped tourism potential consisting of beaches,
Climate
caves/springs, and waterfalls in Guiuan,Borongan, San
Julian and other municipalities. The Department of Environment and Natural
Resources has classified Eastern Samar and the majority of
Northern Samar to exhibit a type II climate as classified by the
Corona system. Type II climate is described to have no dry
season and maximum rainfall is to be expected from November

1
to January. Minor parts of Northern Samar exhibit type IV Table 3 Power plant justification
climate where rainfall is distributed throughout the year and a
minute period of dry season from February to May. Parameter Power Fertilizer Large Scale
Plant Plant Resort
Useful Life 30 9 20
(years)
Table 1 General statistics of Northern and Eastern Samar for Competitors 0 0 Almost 20
2015 B/C Ratio 3.98 1.65 2.56
Payback 6 9 7
Parameters Northern Samar Eastern Samar Period
Population 632,000 467,000 Net Present 51 million 10 million 15 million
Land Area (sq. km.) 3498 4640.7 Value php php php
Density (sq. km.-1) 180 100
Municipalities 24 22
Barangays 569 597 2.2 Quantification of Data
Spoken Languages Waray, Cebuano, Waray
Abaknon, The researcher quantified the yearly power
Bisaya, Tagalog, consumption in kilowatt hour (kWh) of Northern and Eastern
Muslim Samar using five sectors; (1) Residential Sector, (2)
Commercial Sector, (3) Transportation Sector, (4) Industrial
Sector and (5) Agricultural Sector. Sub-sectors from these are
Note: Data for Northern and Eastern Samar from then analyzed to model the demand. Several assumptions and
Philippine Information Agency (2015) reasonable adjustments are made for sufficient analysis. Most
of the data used for the study comes from the Philippine
Statistic Authority (PSA).
Table 2 Parametric province justification for Northern and Quantification for electricity consumption is to not to
Eastern Samar compared to geographically near provinces be affected by climate differences therefore quantities by both
Parameter North- East- West- Ley- South- provinces can be added for the same analysis. (Villalon, 2018)
ern ern ern te ern This is acceptable since the dry season for a minute part of
Samar Samar Samar Leyte Northern Samar is only for four (4) months — a third of a year.
Good 138.43 113.3 96.33 90.3 108.9 However, quantification of the residential sector and the school
Governance 2 7 sectors are affected.
Index
Forest Land 206 389 274 278 131 The quantification of a sub-sector’s electricity
Area (in consumption comes from the summation of the collective time
hectares) spent (in hours) on different appliances with varied power
Population 1.64 1.33 1.35 1.04 1.03 ratings (in Watts). Equations below are used for quantifying the
Growth Rate data.
Elementary 90.6 89.1 81.6 74.5 74.4
Participation
Rate
Administra- 4.00 4.38 2.61 3.83 3.92 𝐷𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 = 𝐷𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑘𝑊ℎ)
tive 𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔(𝑊) 𝑥 𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑥 𝑛𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑥 𝑛ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 (1)
=
Governance 1000

𝐷𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑙𝑦 = 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑙𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑘𝑊ℎ)

Note: Data for Good Governance Index from Philippine = (5 𝑥 𝐷𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦,𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑑𝑎𝑦 )
Statistics Authority (2008), for Forest Land Area from + (2 𝑥𝐷𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦,𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑒𝑛𝑑 ) (2)
Department of Agriculture (2012-2017), for Population Growth
Rate from Philippines Statistics Authority (2010), for 𝐷𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 = 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑘𝑊ℎ)
Elementary Participation Rate, Administrative Governance = (4 𝑥 𝐷𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑙𝑦 ) (3)
from Regional Development Council (2009-2010)

2
 𝐷𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 = 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑘𝑊ℎ) 𝐷𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 , 𝑟
= (12 𝑥 𝐷𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 ) (4) [(20 𝑥 𝐷𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦,𝑤𝑒𝑡 ) + (4 𝑥 𝐷𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦,𝑑𝑟𝑦 )] (8)
=
2
𝑄𝑠,𝑓 = 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ′ 𝑠 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑓 = 𝐷𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑥 𝑃𝑠,𝑓 (5)
Small House Model
Where: These house models occupy up to 50 square meters
nunist =number of units per category of appliance (sq. m.) of land which is almost 83% of the whole population
nusage =the usage factor of an appliance where it of Northern and Eastern Samar. 1673717 out of 201603
depicts the variance on how much time the appliance households fall into this category. (PSA, 2015)
is used. 1 for no variation of time of usage. Going less
means the more varied the time of use is
nhours =number of hours the appliance is used Medium House Model
Ps,f =Population of a Sector ‘s’ by year ‘f’ (f =
These house models occupy from 50 to 120 sq. m. of
year 2048)
land which is 14% of Northern and Eastern Samar. 28419 out
2.3 Residential Sector of 201603 households fall into this category.

Majority of the country’s electricity production is

consumed by this sector where it took 28% of the generated
electricity for the year 2016 (Department of Energy, 2016). This
sector deals with how a family and its members expend
electricity. The basis for calculations are categorized by the size
of the household. Particularly, three categories; (1) small, (2)
medium, and (3) large households are used. The classification
is measured by the land area the houses occupy.
Quantifying the population of households stem from
present households with newlyweds. The equation for finding
the population for a particular year is given below.
Large House Model
The house models occupy above 120 sq. m. of land
which is just 3% of the whole household population of Northern
and Eastern Samar. 5867 out of 201603 households fall into this
category.
The load demand tables of each house model per
season is shown below.
Table 4 Load Demand per Small House Model in Wet Season

𝑃𝑠,𝑓 = 𝑃𝑠,𝑓−1 (1 + 𝑟) (6)

𝑃𝑟,𝑛 = 𝑃𝑟,𝑛−1 (1 + 𝑟𝑟 ) (6.1)

Where:
Pr,n =population of residential at year n
rr =population growth rate (r = 1.52%)(PSA,
2015-2016) Table 5 Load Demand per Small House Model in Dry Season

The weekly quantification of the demand is reduced

due to a brownout once a week on a weekday, where they have
no electricity for 12 hours. This assumption will persist until
later. Since, some months of Northern have dry season, the
researcher has considered whatever the effect may be of this
minute addition. Thus, computing for the weekly consumption
load leads to an approximate deduction of a half-day in
calculating the demand. The weekly and yearly consumption
load for this becomes then:

𝐷𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑙𝑦,𝑟 = (4.5 𝑥 𝐷𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑑𝑎𝑦 ) + (2 𝑥 𝐷𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑒𝑛𝑑 ) (7)

3
 Table 6 Load Demand per Medium House Model in Wet
Season

Table 7 Load Demand per Medium House Model in Dry

Season

Fig. 2 Yearly Demand vs Year graph of the residential

subsectors

Table 10 Yearly Demand of the Residential sector

Table 8 Load Demand per Large House Model in Wet Season

Table 9 Load Demand per Large House Model in Dry Season

The figure relating the households per year and the

table for the yearly residential load (Qr) (kWh•unit) basing from
the available household population data (PSA, 2015) is now
then shown below.

4
2.4 Commercial Sector Table 13 Load Demand per private school during wet season
(6 months)
Also a sector that is a major consumer, the commercial
sector boasts a share of 24% of consuming electricity. This
sector involves trade and finance that affects the economy of its
country — the reason a large share of the generation of
electricity goes here. Five (5) subsectors will be selected for this
sector; (1) Schools (Public, Private, Tertiary), (2) Restaurants,
(3) Offices, (4) Banks, (5) Pawnshops.

Schools Table 14 Load Demand per private school during dry season
Categorized as public, private or tertiary, this sub- (3 months)
sector has the most demand in all of the other commercial
sectors. The demand was analyzed through the usage of
facilities.

The researcher has assumed that the same load goes to

both the public and private schools for both provinces. The
quantification period for the public and private schools—which
are elementary and high schools—is for 9 months a year since
holidays and semester breaks affect the attendance of school.
However, the tertiary level’s period is for the whole year (12 Table 15 Load Demand per tertiary school during wet season
months). The once a week half day brownout still applies to this (8 months)
sub-sector.

The same equations persist in computing for the

demand in this sub-sector. Using equations (1), (2) and (3),
tables for load demand for schools are seen below.

Table 11 Load Demand per public school during wet season

(6 months)

Table 16 Load Demand per tertiary school during dry season

(4 months)

Table 12 Load Demand per public school during dry season

(3 months)

Because the database shown by the Basic Education

Information System (BEIS) does not classify the schools as
either private or public, the researcher has chosen to model the
population distribution behind the ratio of the private to public

5
schools of Region VIII where there is 1 private school to 9
public schools.

Population growth is used as the rate of increase for

schools. Presently, there are 688 schools in Northern Samar
which 69 are private, 1 is tertiary and 618 are public. Eastern
Samar has 525 schools, which 52 are private, 7 are tertiary and
466 are public. (BEIS, 2018)

Using equation (4) and (6) for computing the yearly

demand of the schools and adjusting the number of months for
private and public school for a year is to be 9, the demand for
schools for 30 years is then shown below.

Fig. 3 Yearly Demand vs Year of the school subsectors

Table 17 Yearly Demand of the School subsector

Restaurants

A commercial subsector where it is not affected by dry

or wet season. The assumption is made to be because of minute
contributions of the dry season of Northern Samar which only
compromises little of it. Currently, there are 60 and 79
restaurants in Eastern and Northern Samar respectively.
(Google Maps, 2018)

Using equations (1), (2), and (3), shown below are the
load consumption tables per restaurant. The yearly demand for
the restaurant will be shown later along with the other
commercial subsectors.

Table 18 Load Demand per Restaurant

Offices

The researcher has made an assumption that for the

office, the electricity consumption only happens during
weekdays because employees don’t have work on the
weekends. Currently, there are 127 and 129 offices in Eastern
and Northern Samar respectively. (Google Maps, 2018)

6
 Repeating the steps and using equations (1), (2) and Table 21 Load Demand per Pawnshop
(3), below is the load consumption table per office.

Table 19 Load Demand per Office

Table 22 Yearly Demand of the Commercial Sector

Banks

From the PSA, there are currently 19 and 15 banks in

Eastern and Northern Samar respectively. (PSA, 2015) Demand
quantifications are assumed to have only effect on weekdays as
the researcher has assumed that there will be no load demand
on weekends as the banks are closed on those days.

Shown below using equations (1), (2), and (3) is the

load consumption per bank table.

Table 20 Load Demand per Bank

Pawnshops

From the PSA, there are a total of 90 pawnshops where

44 come from Eastern Samar and 46 come from Northern
Samar. (PSA, 2012). No additional assumptions were made and
the table for load demand per pawnshop is shown below.

Fig. 4 Yearly Demand vs Year graph of the commercial

subsectors

7
2.5 Transportation Sector

Bus Terminals Table 25 Load Demand per Airport

There are 5 and 4 bus terminals in Eastern and

Northern Samar respectively. (Google Maps, 2018). There is no
exponential growth but it is assumed that a new bus terminal
opens every 5 years.

The operation on the bus terminals are different

compared to regular and holiday seasons. Specifically, holiday
seasons are grouped into 2 months to lessen the difficulty of
quantifying. The table below shows the load demand per bus
terminal.

Table 23 Load Demand per Bus Terminal

Seaports

There are currently 5 seaports in Northern Samar and

2 in Eastern Samar. It is assumed that there will be an additional
seaport every 15 years given the population is growing.

The table below shows the load demand per seaport.

Jeepney Terminals
Table 26 Load Demand per Seaport
Both Northern and Eastern Samar have each 3 jeepney
terminals. It is assumed that the duration of operation is the
same for both weekdays and weekends. Also, a new jeepney
terminal opens every 5 years.

Holidays do not affect the operation period. The table

below shows the load demand per jeepney terminal.

Table 24 Load Demand per Jeepney Terminal

Streetlights

The load demand for streetlights were based from the

Department of Energy’s lighting guidelines, where roads are
used as a basis for approximating load demand on streetlights
Airport given any type, width and length.

Northern Samar has 1 airport terminal while Eastern 2 It is computed that for every 50 meters of paved road,
airport terminals. No further addition of terminals are assumed. there are opposing lamp posts on each side of the road.
If dramatic numbers flock to tour both provinces, additional Assumed for every road type. It is said that the streetlights
airport/s would be possible. would operate for 12 hours.

The table below shows the load depand per airport. The equation used for solving the wattage on
streetlights is:

8
 𝐿𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑,𝑘 𝑥 𝑃𝑙𝑎𝑚𝑝
𝑄𝑡,𝑠.𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 = 𝑥365 (9)
50

Where:

Qt,s.light = Yearly Demand for Streetlight

Lroad,k = Length of road for type ‘k’ road (in km)
Plamp = Wattage of lamp depending on type ‘k’

Table 27 Load Demand of Streetlight (Daily, Yearly)

Fig. 5 Yearly Demand vs Year graph of the transportation

subsectors

2.6 Industrial Sector

Unfortunately for Northern and Eastern Samar, little is

there to analyze for the Industrial sector. There has been only 2
mining areas and 3 coconut pressers.

Figures will still be shown for other industrial plants

however. Tables for the following plants are shown below.

Table 28 Yearly Demand of the Transportation Sector Food Manufacturing

Table 29 Load Demand per Food Manufacturing

Iron and Steel

9
 Table 30 Load Demand per Iron and Steel Plant Mining

There are only two: which are the Cambayas Mining

Corp. and the Mt. Sinai Mining. It is assumed that the Mining
Area will be increased by 1 every 10 years.

Table 33 Load Demand per Mining Area

Table 34 Number of Plants per subsector

Pulp Paper

Table 31 Load Demand per Pulp Paper plant

Coconut Pressing

There are only 3 coconut pressing plants present.

Hernani Integrated, Agri-business livelihood center alternative
coco enterprise of Mercedes.

It is assumed that the coconut pressing plant will

increase by 1 every 10 years.

Table 32 Load Demand per Coconut Pressing plant

Fig. 7 Yearly Demand vs Year graph of the Industrial Sectors

10
 Table 35 Yearly Demand of the Industrial Sector
2.7 Agricultural Sector
Poultry (Chicken)
There are 213516 metric ton in Northern Samar and
81163 in Eastern Samar for a total of 294679. The Growth rate
of chicken is 24.30% (PSA, 2016). Its population is computed
to be at 565930 for 2018. Below is the load demand per chicken
metric ton. For 1 megaton, it is equal to one farm.
Table 36 Load Demand per Chicken Metric ton
Livestock (Carabao)
There are 42124 and 19527 metric tons in Northern
and Eastern Samar respectively for a total of 61651 of metric
tons. The growth rate of 0.38% (PSA, 2016). Its population is
computed to be at 62356 for 2018. Below is the load demand
per carabao metric ton (metric ton).
Table 37 Load Demand per Livestock Metric ton
Plant Production (Coconut)
There are 269928 metric tons and 156959 metric tons
in Northern and Eastern Samar respectively for a total of
426887 of metric tons. The growth rate of 8% (PSA, 2015). Its
population is computed to be at 537754 for 2018. Below is the
load demand per coconut metric ton.
Table 38 Load Demand per Coconut Metric ton
Rice Production
There are 111086 metric tons and 61902 metric tons in
Northern and Eastern Samar respectively for a total of 172988
of metric tons. The growth rate of 0.1% (PSA, 2015). Its
population is computed to be at 173507 for 2018. Below is the
load demand per rice metric ton (metric ton).
Table 39 Load Demand per Rice Metric ton
11
Fish Culture

There are 20295 metric tons and 53204 metric tons in

Northern and Eastern Samar respectively for a total of 73499 of
metric tons. The growth rate of 4.48% (PSA, 2012). Its
population is computed to be at 95606 for 2018. Below is the
load demand per fish metric ton (metric ton).

Table 40 Load Demand per Fish Metric ton Fig. 7 Yearly Demand vs Year graph of the Agricultural
Sectors

3 RESULTS
Using Appendix B, it is possible to install a power
plant that meets that demand. Even at a low power demand this
Table 41 Yearly Demand of the Agricultural Sector year of 22 MW, a lot is in store for Northern and Eastern Samar.

4 DISCUSSION
Samar has been eyed before by the H&WB Asia-
Pacific Corp and French partner Sabella Sas as they are
currently are building a tidal power plant to power up
Capul, Northern Samar. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 2017).
This place has little energy demands for a large province.
It has a lot of potential in using its shores and seaside
characteristic to utilize power plants to power their
homes.
5 CONCLUSION
With the provinces’ low energy demand and with
declining marriage rate, it is not impossible that the energy
demanded is as high as the end of 2048. With the potential of
the two provinces’ location, they can harness enough power
from the shores, tides and waves to power their homes.

12
References: Profile: Eastern Visayas. CountryStat. Retrieved from
http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph/
Philippines, Philippine Statistics Authority. (2016).
Poverty Situation in Eastern Visayas. (annual per capita) Philippines, Philippine Statistics Authority. (2012).
The Countryside in Figures. Retrieved from
Philippines, Philippine Statistics Authority. (2010). http://nap.psa.gov.ph/countryside/showperregion.asp
2010 Census of Population and Housing. (data for household)
Philippines, Department of Energy. (2016). 2016
Philippines, Philippine Information Agency. (n.d.). PHILIPPINE POWER SITUATION REPORT. Retrieved from
EASTERN SAMAR. Retrieved from https://www.doe.gov.ph/electric-power/2016-philippine-
http://pia.gov.ph/provinces/eastern-samar power-situation-report.
Philippines, Philippine Information Agency. (n.d.). $25-M tidal power plant in Samar eyed. (2017, June
NORTHERN SAMAR. Retrieved from 16). The Business Inquirer. Retrieved from
http://pia.gov.ph/provinces/northern-samar http://business.inquirer.net/231414/25-m-tidal-power-plant-
Philippines, Philippine Statistics Authority. (2008). samar-eyed
Provincial Good Governance Index for 2005 and 2008 by
Region.

Philippines, Department of Agriculture. (n.d.).

Agriculture and Fishery Modernization Plan (2012-2017)
Eastern Visayas.

Philippines, Department of Agriculture. (n.d.).

Agriculture and Fishery Modernization Plan (2012-2017)
Eastern Visayas. Retrieved from
http://da08.da.gov.ph/index.php/da-nfrs/profile
Philippines, National Economic and Development Authority.
(n.d.). Eastern Visayas Regional Development Plan (2011-
2016).

Expat 2 Phils. (n.d.). Samar Weather & Climate [Web

log post]. Retrieved from
https://expat2phils.wordpress.com/samar/weather/

Philippines, Department of Environment and Natural

Resources. (n.d.). Region 8 - Tacloban City. Retrieved from
http://r8.denr.gov.ph/index.php/about-us/regional-profile
Villalon, J. A. (2018, February 28). Samar Inquiries [Online
interview].

Philippines, Philippine Statistics Authority. (2018).

Quickstat Northern Samar. Philippines, Philippine Statistics
Authority. (2018). Quickstat Eastern Samar.

Philippines, Department of Public Works and

Highways. (2016). 2016 DPWH Atlas: Region VIII. Retrieved
from
http://www.dpwh.gov.ph/dpwh/2016%20DPWH%20ATLAS/
Road%20Data%202016/index.htm

Philippines, Department of Energy. (2017). Roadway

Lighting Guidelines.
Philippines, Philippine Statistics Authority. (2016). Regional

13
Appendix A. Yearly Demand Quantity of Residential Commercial and Transportation

14
Appendix B. Yearly Demand Quantity and Power Conversion Per Year

15