Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes

Objective Calculate a first-order estimate of the volume of oil that could be

contained in the Alpha and Beta prospects using a simple reservoir
volume formula and typical rock and fluid properties.

Part 1: Gross Rock Volume

A present-day structure map for the top of the target reservoir is shown in Figure 1. Both Alpha
and Beta are fault-bounded anticlines. Based on geophysical evidence, the HC-water contact in
Alpha is at a depth of 2600 m; in Beta it is at 1800 m. With this map, a reservoir thickness
(isopach) map, and the dip of the fault plane, we can get a fairly accurate value for the gross
rock volume of the reservoir (rock + fluid volumes).

For our exercise, we will assume that Alpha and Beta are simple half-cones. We will also
assume a constant reservoir thickness of 100 m. We can get the gross rock volume of the
reservoir by calculating the volume of half-cone formed by the top of the reservoir down to the
fluid contact and subtracting the volume of the half-cone formed by the base of the reservoir
down to the fluid contact.

Continued  on  next  page  

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes, Continued

For gross rock volume, we can use the formula:

Vgrv = ½ [ ⅓ π (rtop)2 htop - ⅓ π (rbase)2 hbase ] or

Vgrv = 1/6 π [ (rtop)2 htop - (rbase)2 hbase ]

Step   Action  

1 Estimate the gross rock volume at Alpha using these values:

rtop = 4.5 km htop = 800 m = 0.8 km

rbase = 3.9 km hbase = 700 m = 0.7 km

Record your result on Table 1 – last page. Use units of km3

2 Estimate the gross rock volume at Beta using these values:

rtop = 4 km htop = 800 m

rbase = 3.5 km hbase = 700 m

Record your result on Table 1 – last page. Use units of km3

Part 2: Reservoir Volume

The gross rock volume contains both reservoir and non-reservoir layers. We use a parameter
called Net-to-Gross (N/G) to express the percentage of the target interval that is truly reservoir
quality (layers from which HCs can be can produced). The formula for reservoir volume is:

Vres = Vgrv * (N/G)

Step   Action  

3 Estimate the reservoir volume at Alpha using a N/G of 35%.

Record your result on Table 1 – last page.

4 Estimate the reservoir volume at Beta using a N/G of 30%.

Record your result on Table 1 – last page.

Continued  on  next  page  

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes, Continued

Part 3: Pore Volume

Reservoir volume can be partitioned into the volume of the solid grains and the volume of the
space between the grains – the pore volume. Porosity (φ) is the parameter that tells us what
fraction of the reservoir volume is pore space – where the fluids are located. The formula we
use is:

    Vpore    =    Vres * φ  

Step   Action  

5 Estimate the pore volume at Alpha using a porosity of 25%.

Record your result on Table 1 – last page.

6 Estimate the pore volume at Beta using a porosity of 22%. Record

your result on Table 1 – last page.

Part 4: In-Place HCs

If the target reservoir interval has been charged with HC, most but not all, of the pore space will
contain oil or gas. Some of the pore space will contain residual water. Hydrocarbon saturation
(SHC) is a measure of how much of the available pore space is filled with HCs. The formula we
use is:

    Vin-­‐place    =    Vpore * SHC  

Step   Action  

7 Estimate the in-plase volume at Alpha using a hydrocarbon

saturation of 80%. Record your result on Table 1.

Continued  on  next  page  

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes, Continued

Step   Action  

8 Estimate the in-plase volume at Beta using a hydrocarbon

saturation of 80%. Record your result on Table 1.

LET'S ME OPTIMISTIC! We will assume that the reservoir is filled with oil down to the fluid
contact - i.e., no free gas cap.

Part 5: Converting to Barrels

The unit of volume typically used for oil is millions of barrels (MBO). We can use a simple
conversion factor to go from volumes in km3 to MBO. (We could have done this conversion at
any point after step 1).

    VMBO    =    Vkm3 * 6290  

Step   Action  

9 Convert your estimate of oil in-place at Alpha to MBO. Record

your result on Table 1 – last page.

10 Convert your estimate of oil in-place at Beta to MBO. Record your

result on Table 1 – last page.

Continued  on  next  page  

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes, Continued

Part 6: Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)

Modern production techniques can only move a small portion of the in-place oil. The oil that is
moved to the surface will change volume as it is brought up. This is due to the differences in
temperature and pressure conditions in the reservoir compared to at the surface.

We estimate the ultimate recovery (EUR) using values for the recovery efficiency (RE) and the
formation volume factor (FVF) – the correction for volume change. The volume change
between the subsurface and the surface is sometimes called oil shrinkage.

We use the formula:

    EUR    =    Vin-­‐place    *  RE    *    FVF  

Step   Action  

11 Calculate an EUR for Alpha assuming RE= 25% and FVF = .90.
Record your result on Table 1 – last page.

12 Calculate an EUR for Beta assuming RE= 20% and FVF = .90.
Record your result on Table 1 – last page.

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes, Continued

Part 7: Risked Volumes

The EUR you calculated in part 6 is an UNRISKED number – it assumes that everything in the
hydrocarbon system works favorably. However, the chance that everything works is not 100%.

Typically experts will estimate the chance that each component of the hydrocarbon system
(source, migration, reservoir, etc.) has worked. To keep things simple, we will assume that
everything will work except possibly the fault seal. We believe that there is a 62% chance that
the faults will seal so that oil will be trapped in Alpha and Beta.

Step   Action  

13 To get a risked EUR, multiply your results from Part 6 by 0.62 –

the COS. Record your result on Table 1 – last page.

When performing the economic analysis, we use the risked EUR. Think about it, if 6 times out
of 10 the system works, you have to base your economics on this factor.

If the economic minimum for this area is 100 MOEB, what would you recommend to
management about drilling these two prospects?

Alpha: ___________________________________________

Beta: ____________________________________________

Continued  on  next  page  

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes, Continued

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Exercise 14: Estimating HC Volumes,  Continued  

   

ESTIMATES Alpha Beta

1. Gross Rock Volume

km3 km3

2. Reservoir Volume
km3 km3

3. Pore Volume
km3 km3

4. In-Place Volume
km3 km3

5. In-Place – Barrels
MBO MBO

6. EUR – Unrisked
MBO MBO

7. EUR – Risked
MBO MBO
 

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