Professional Documents
Culture Documents
January, 2008
EXIT
Contents
1. Overview of the Port Sector
a) Global trends in the sector
b) Expected Requirement of Funds
2. Traffic Forecasts
a) Current cargo distribution
b) Capacity forecast
c) Demand –Supply gap
3. Port Connectivity
a) Dedicated freight corridor
b) Project for improving rail connectivity of ports
c) Golden Quadrilateral
4. Residual issues
a) Model Concession agreement vis-à-vis project parameters
b) Implication on shareholding pattern
c) States own framework
d) Safeguarding PPP interests
2.
Overview of the Port Sector
India is following international trends in the Port Sector
•Ports are serving as intermodal links as critical •Getting there: More ICD/CFS being set up near ports with value
Intermodal
Intermodal nodes in international supply chain networks. added services. Road and rail connectivity improvement projects
Links
Links launched
•Increasing privatisation: Shift from service port •Same: Major Ports are gradually increasing participation from
Privatisation
Privatisation to landlord port model private sector. 13 terminals with capacity of 38.8 mtpa operational
•Increasing containerisation: Top 20 container •Same: Container traffic at Major Ports grew at CAGR of 15.9% from
ports witnessed double digit growth in the last 1999-00 to 2006-07 and during last year the growth was
Containerisation few years overwhelming 21.73%. Even during first half of FY08 container traffic
Containerisation
at JNP grew at 25%. Other cargo grew at less than 6%.
•Traffic concentration on large intermodal •Same: One port JNPT handles 60% of all container traffic among
Traffic
Traffic platforms: first 10 containers ports handled 31% major ports.
concentration
concentration of the world traffic in 1980, and more than 40% •Dry Bulk traffic is concentrated on three ports in the east – Vizag,
today. Paradip and Kolkata
Industry
Industry
concentration
concentration •Emergence of few global players •No such trend is there in India, but global payers are bullish at
Indian ports and taking over operations where ever possible.
Vessel
Vessel trends
trends •Increasing speed and size of vessels •Indian ports do not have capacity to handle such vessels. However,
4. plans have been made to improve capacity and channel depth
Source: World Bank, UNCTAD, WTO, CRISIL Analysis
….Still a long way to go
• Installed port capacity in India and China are ~0.75 btpa (0.504 + 0.25 ~ major and minor port
capacity) and 5.6 btpa respectively.
• Container terminal capacity in China is ~60 m teu vis-à-vis India’s capacity of 8.6 million teu in
2006-07.
• The largest container vessel making a call at JNP India’s premier container terminal is 6,000 teu,
whereas Emma Maersk (more than 13,000 teu capacity) makes call at a number of Chinese ports
namely Yantian, Hong Kong, Ningbo, Xiamen etc.
• Chinese ports the average turnaround time is 0.8-0.9 days whereas at JNP and Visakhapatnam
(main ports for Container and Bulk) is 1.67 days and 3.65.
• As per Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) rail freight in Australia, Brazil and other
developing nations like China is around Rs. 0.43 per tonne per Kilometer whereas in India it is
nearly four times higher at Rs. 1.81 per tonne per km (and is increasing).
For a Vessel of 2500 teu and 26,000 GRT the vessels charges at Indian and other regional ports
Vessel related charges at various ports in India, Asia and Far-East Asia region (USD)
* Consolidated charges are given at Salalah Web-sites. *Berth-hire and tug charges are for a shift of 8 hours.
5.
Source: Various Port-websites and TAMP.
….Still a long way to go
• The berth length at Singapore and Dubai are 13,800 and 4,426 m whereas total berth length at
JNP is 3200 m (including 2 shallow berths of 600 m each) only.
• Bulk cargo handling cost at most of the Indian ports are in range of Rs. 35 per ton to Rs. 200 per
tonne depending upon the type of commodity, which is slightly on higher side when compared to
other international ports in dollar terms however, time spend in handling is much more.
Container handling charges at Indian port in Rs/teu Container handling charges at Dubai and Salalah
Service Pipavav JNPCT NSICT MICT Mumbai Container type Dubai (USD) Salalah (USD)
Gateway boxes (INR) Upto 20'
Ship-yard – loaded 3,000 2,210 2,210 2,720
Full 129 75
Ship-yard – empty 1,785 1,785 2,560
Full T'ship 143 140
Yard to rail (ICD) – loaded 3640 1,105 1,105 1,080 3,770
Empty 66 30
Yard to rail (ICD) – empty 1,105 1,105 1,040 3,270
Yard to truck – loaded 340 340 680 2,470
Empty T'ship 96 100
Yard to truck – empty 340 340 640 1,970
Total box cost Over 20'
Ship-road – loaded 3,000 2,550 2,550 3,400 2,470 Full 191 115
Full T'ship 199 200
Ship-rail – loaded (INR) 3640 3,315 3,315 4,375 3,770 Empty 90 40
Ship-rail – loaded (US$) 91 83 83 109 94 Empty T'ship 136 140
6.
Expected Requirement of Funds
7.
Going forward the XIth Plan, will see a doubling of port capacity
95% of total volume of international trade is handled The government is planning to more than double the
by Ports yet they face capacity bottlenecks capacity at Major and Minor Ports in the XI Plan
Traffic & Capacity at Major Ports in the past Capacity addition envisaged in XI Plan (MT)
120% 500 Total =1,575
456 450 114%
Capacity Utlisation (%)
100% 424
Traffic/Capacity (MT)
390 398
384
400
363 350
80% 344 345
314
291 288 300 97%
272
258
281 1002
60% 250 Major Ports
200 Total =737
40% 150
Minor Ports
20% 100
50 509 151%
0% 0
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005-
574
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 228
Capacity Utilisation Traffic Capacity
Present Capacity (Mar 07) Capacity by Mar 2012
Source: Indian Ports Association, CRISIL Analysis Source: Working Committee report on 11th FYP, CRISIL Analysis
The National Maritime Development Programme will be For Minor Ports states like Maharashtra, Andhra
major driver for investments in the Major Ports Pradesh and Gujarat are taking the lead
Expected
• Investment of Rs.55,804 crores in the major ports to Present Additional Capacity
State
boost the existing infrastructure at these ports. 276 Capacity Capacity by March
(Mar 2007) during 11th FYP 2012
projects identified.
Andhra Pradesh 18.5 84.3 102.8
• Will be implemented in two phases.
Gujarat 182.0 56.0 238.0
•Phase-I covers all investment till 2009 (from 2005- Karnataka Ports 4.0 26.0 30.0
06) Kerala 0.1 27.7 27.9
•Phase-II covers all the projects upto 2012. Maharashtra 11.1 85.2 96.3
• Around 64% of the proposed investment in major ports Tamil Nadu 0.9 28.8 29.7
are envisaged from private players. Others 11.8 37.1 48.9
8. Total 228.3 345.2 573.5
And most of this will be driven by the NMDP
The NMDP will add 402 MT of capacity by 2011-12 in Major Ports by investments of over Rs. 55,000 Cr.
Project Head No. of Budgetary Internal Private Others** Total Total 58% of total
Projects Support Resources Investment (USD Billion)
investment will be for
Deepening of channels/ berths 25 2,731 3,340 185 48 6,304 1.54
Construction/reconstruction of berths 76 563 3,867 28,083 50 32,564 7.94 construction of berths
Procurement of Equipments 52 0 1,428 1,075 130 2,633 0.64 and most of it is
Rail and Road connectivity works 45 90 2,232 0 3,634 5,956 1.45
envisaged to come
Others*** 78 225 2,904 5,162 56 8,347 2.04
Total 276 3,609 13,772 34,505 3,918 55,804* 13.61 from Private players
Ports 11th Plan Outlay Private Sector Total Investments in 11th FYP Rs. Cr. (USD Billion)
Total for Major Ports 18,533 36,868 55,401 (13.51)
Non-Major Ports 12,020 23,912 35,932 (8.76)
10. Total for All Ports 30,554 60,780 91,334 (22.27)
Traffic and Capacity Forecasts
Traffic
12.
Gujarat has had the maximum traffic but Karnataka and Goa have shown the highest
growth
Evolution of India Ports Traffic *
CAGR %
(In MT)
9.32
574
521
150
465 Gujarat 6.83
139
418
384 131
Total =368 93 Maharashtra 12.51
125
80
108 120 14.16
72 43 Goa
39 15.63
62 38 Karnataka
52 54 36 37 14 Kerala 1.1
29 28 14
22 26 22 14 74 Tamil Nadu
19 18 13 70 6.65
13 12 60
56
54 53 74 Andhra Pradesh
65 8.40
51 58
50 48 33 10.56
25 30 Orissa
20 21 24
54 West Bengal 11.92
31 31 36 42 47
378
Gujarat 13%
332
303 Maharashtra 7%
275 184 Goa 2%
Total =248 159
144 Karnataka 5%
128
114 Kerala 17%
47
43 1 Tamil Nadu 15%
40
38 1 30
35 1 1 29
1 29 18 Andhra Pradesh 12%
25 27 15 24
13 15 20
10 16 17 Orissa 15%
14 38 45
29 31 34
9 11 13 15 16 West Bengal 4%
11 11 12 13 13
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
460
414 72 Gujarat 4%
376
352 68 Maharashtra 4%
37
Total =331 66
36 50 Goa 3%
67
62 33 22
48 Karnataka 6%
34 7
31 46 18
4
46 85 Kerala 45%
45 17
2
18 72
18 2 60 Tamil Nadu 14%
2
51 54 76
74 Andhra Pradesh 7%
70
58 61
Orissa 19%
65 77
39 42 52
West Bengal 8%
26 27 29 31 34
Gujarat 10%
Maharashtra 16%
Goa 4%
170 Karnataka 3%
Kerala 49%
146
16
119 Tamil Nadu 16%
14
98 15 79
Total =86 67 Andhra Pradesh 53%
11 12
58 0
44 51 0
15 18 Orissa 41%
0 0
9 36
0
4 4 24 32
20 22 4 6
0 7
0 West Bengal 19%
1
0
6 2
0
7 0
8 11 13
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
1009
18.
Bulk of the liquid capacity will be added by Orissa and Maharashtra
Major Ports Capacity Addition Forecasts - Liquid
(In MT)
SBM at Cochin
Berth for chemical and POL product at Ennore
Total =33
0 •IOC is setting up SBM at Paradip
6
0 •HPCL is planning to set up an
•Construction of two berths at Mumbai
18 SBM at Vishakhapatnam
0
14.3
0
1 14.1
0
27 0
15 6
5 14
0
2 5
0
3 0
3 1
0 0 0 1
0 0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
West Bengal Orissal Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala
Karnataka Goa Maharashtra Gujarat
0
•Krishnapatnam •Dhamra (Orissa)
(AP)
•Karaikall (Pondicherry)
34
•Kirtania (Orissa)
30
0
3
0
3 26.5
0
7 •Gopalpur (Orissa)
10 0
0
Total =18
25 0
10
18 20
4 14
6
0 0 0 0 0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
West Bengal Orissal Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala
Karnataka Goa Maharashtra Gujarat
•Vizhinjham (Cochin)
•Dighi
(Maharashtra) •Kulpi (West Bengal)
40.7
0
17 •Rewas (Maharashtra)
30
0
0
15 30
Total =0
7 0
0
7 9
0 0 0
0 0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
West Bengal Orissal Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala
Karnataka Goa Maharashtra Gujarat
Goa 2 46 1 48.97
Karnataka 27 38 0 65.33
Kerala 22 16 30 68.73
Goa 34
Karnataka 25
Kerala 14
Ennore projects of LNG and UMPP Coal berth
Tamil Nadu 79 estimated to come up after 2012
Andhra Pradesh 48 Nizampatnam concession cancelled. Kakinada anchorage
estimated to come up after 2012
Orissa -53
Planning Commission has not considered Kirtania
West Bengal 20
Eastern Corridor
Gandhidham-Palanpur railway line for port connectivity. Arsikeri-Hasan-Mangalore. To connect Mangalore port to
Length is 313 km and project require lenders. the hinterland
31.
Rail project to increase connectivity of west coast ports
Rewari-Ajmer-Phulera_ringus Gauge change to increase port connectivity
62 km of new railway track for connecting Dahej
32.
Rail project to increase connectivity of east coast ports
Thanjavur –Villupuram via cuddalore
Salem-Cuddalore via Vriddhachalam 191 km for port connectivity
Banspani-Daitari, new line and electrification Talcher-Cuttack-Paradeep (2nd Bridges on Mahandi & Birupa)_Doubling
for Paradip port connectivity
33.
Rail project to increase connectivity of east coast ports
Obulavaripalli - Krishnapatnam 129 km New Line
Attipattu-Korukkupettai 3rd Line of 18 km
34.
Golden Quadrilateral
All lengths in Kms.
Length
Corridor (NH) BAF AAF Diff. 4-Laned U-I BOT
MCA Impact
• Traffic risk is with the developer • Since tariff are set such that return of
• But concession period can be increased by 16% is guaranteed and minor ports have
seven years if traffic is lower than forecast. Eg. no restriction on tariffs so revenue risk is
minimal
Traffic
Traffic – a shortfall of 10% in the target traffic after 20
Risk
Risk years will lead to extension of the concession • Change in concession period gives
period by 5 years. greater comfort that investments will get
– an increase of 6% in the target traffic will recovered but imparts greater uncertainty
reduce the concession period by 18 months
in business planning
• Technical parameters will focus on the level of • Technical parameters will leave room for
service for the users innovation
Project
Project • Construction period is part of concession
• Concession period fixed at 30 years
Scope
Scope period incentivising concessionaire to
&& CP
CP reduce construction period
37.
… and the MCA now outlines the role of public and private players
MCA Impact
• Due to capacity constraints there is • TAMP sets tariff at base year and it
lack of competition. increases indexed to inflation
• Hence, TAMP will continue to set • This impart greater certainty to the tariff
tariffs but it will capped at levels of setting method thus giving greater comfort
Tariff
Tariff setting
setting competing ports in the region. to the investor
• Tariff increase will be indexed @ 40%
to WPI
38.
… while States, are putting in place the appropriate framework….
State policy
• Concession fee: 2.5 % of gross income per annum for Greenfield Ports
• Tax Incentives: Exemptions on Sales tax, seigniorage charges, Stamp duty etc if project is unviable
Maharashtra
Maharashtra
• Concession period: 50 years
• Tax Incentives: Exemption from payment of registration fee and stamp duty, MMB to charge concessional wharfage
• Road connectivity upto the nearest national highway to be part funded by MMB/ state government
Issues
Issues Interventions
Interventions
• Time taken Process Time Taken (months) • Time taken for different
Slow
Slow bidding
bidding Detailed Project Report 6
to procure a approvals should be reduced
process
process Approvals 6
typical port • Procedure should be
RFQ 3
project is streamlined. Eg.
RFP 3
very long
Financial Closure 6 Environmental clearance
Total 24 before bidding
40.
… but, to ensure PPP interest following interventions are required
Issues
Issues Interventions
Interventions
41.
www.crisil.com
www.standardandpoors.com
42.
EXIT