After 9 years: War lessons for GOSL in 2018

Friday, 1 June 2018

We saw the agitation by certain quarters once again on 18 May wanting to

commemorate war heroes from one side and from another the people who had
died in the war victory. The controversial comments from the Cabinet
Spokesperson added fuel to the fire with the country erupting to give their own
opinions, which resulted in the President ultimately stepping in to set the record
straight.

Given that I was part of the larger team during the 2007-2009 ‘Eelam war 4’ I
thought of capturing the lessons from the war for the current Government
(GOSL), even though it’s almost nine years of the war coming to a close.

Dr. Palitha Kohona

I yet remember the year 2007, when I was selected to serve the country in the
fight against terrorism by UN official Dr. Palith Kohona. I was initially in two minds
but thereafter I decided that in my 17-year career of working in multinationals
Unilever, ReckittBenckiser and Hindustan Lever winning awards, twice the
‘Marketer Achiever award’ and a ‘ Business Achiever’ award, it maybe good for
my career to serve the country for two years.

The position I took was Director Economic Affairs of the Government Peace
Secretariat (under the President’s Office) reporting directly Dr. Kohona. The salary
for a month was 63,000 (all inclusive). I agreed, provided that I could have time to
study for my doctoral studies too.

Working under

threat to life

If I track back in my life after almost nine years, it was one of the
most interesting jobs I have done. Travelling on military aircraft became a way of
life. Chartering vessels to carry essential goods to Jaffna after the closure of the
A9 due to LTTE attacks, staging business exhibitions to connect the business
entities of Colombo with Jaffna and defying the LTTE threats was always a way of
life of living on the edge.

I remember once, when I was enjoying an ice cream in the popular restaurant in
Jaffna, Rio, a Chamber of Commerce member in Jaffna pointed to a senior LTTE
cadre who had just walked in. The next thing I knew was that I was whisked away
by the Army. There were days I had to travel from the Palaly camp to Jaffna town
in an armoured car or the unicorn, as the security forces did not want to take a
risk, as we were seen as a catalyst in driving the Jaffna economy in the eyes of the
LTTE.

$ 200 billion lost

The adrenaline flow was so strong, that I used to take time to pen articles on anti-
terrorism that got me quoted in pro-LTTE websites and subsequently a blanket
death threat surfaced. Even this did not deter any of us in our efforts as we
believed in the motto ‘country before self’. The fact of the matter was that that
LTTE was a banned terrorist organisation in over 35 countries and branded as the
most ruthless and brutal force that invented the world’s first human suicide
bomb.

On 17 May 2009 when the terror outfit LTTE was overrun by the Sri Lankan
security forces on their own turf, it was a historic occasion for the country as we
as a nation had lost over 70,000 people in the three decades of war and my
estimates revealed that almost 200 billion dollars was the opportunity cost for the
country. Incidentally, this figure was almost 10 times the average GDP of the
country at that time.

Whilst we can be proud of the victory, after nine years what see is that the nation
is yet struggling to give a better life to an average Sri Lankan. I am sometimes
wondering if the two years I dedicated to be serving on the larger team fighting
the LTTE was a waste. Let me pick up the essence and link it to the political
economy of 2018.

Lesson 1 – Ground reality

Whilst the tide has turned on the relationship between the former Defence
Secretary and the former Army Commander post 2009, the fact remains that they
were proven battle-hardy soldiers. Both had survived a suicide attack by the LTTE.
The Army Commander has been wounded twice in the field, which explains the
experience and credibility he has to command troops whilst the former Defence
Secretary also survived an assassination attempt at Piththala junction.

At the outset of ‘Eelam War 4’ there was a situation where the security forces
were up against earth bunds at the war zones that the LTTE had erected. The
former Army Commander given his hands-on experience on the ground
personally instructed the ground forces on where to breach it and how to hold
territory thereafter. This earned him the respect to lead not only at the strategic
end but operationally too.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

A lesson for the GOSL was when Sri Lanka went out of the stock of fuel in 2017
and the blanket ban of glyphosate that created many issues for the country. In
fact it virtually shut the country and the tea industry. These were two clear
situations that the policymakers had no sense of the ground reality. It also
revealed that there was a gap in the strategy makers and the public sector
bureaucrats, which did not augur well for the government in power. In my view
this is the main issue the current Government has is the inability to mobilise and
energise the public sector.

Lesson 2 – Attack

the strengths

The great Sun Tzu advocates ‘attack the vulnerable points’. However Sri Lanka’s
strategy was to attack the most difficult points. For example, it took the Army
eight months to take Thambapanni which was just four km from the frontlines
and many were wondering at that time if the Army could actually win the
unconventional war that the LTTE was waging. The Army leadership did not
change course but kept its focus on the bigger plan. The troops finally broke
through the lines and created a psychological advantage. The enemy on the other
hand became weaker due to this strategic loss.
The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The biggest strength for Sri Lanka post 2009 has been the tourism industry.
Investment giant George Sorros and Harvard Professor Matt Andrews mentioned
publicly that tourism was the major strength for Sri Lanka but sadly we are yet to
launch the global marketing campaign. There was a professional attempt to
launch this campaign in 2015, but three days before the proposals were to be
submitted, it was cancelled and the Chairman and Board devolved.

The private sector has continuously harped on this lapse but even after three
years it looks like we will not see this happening in this Government’s life. What
the policymarkes are forgetting is that if this hits the global media it will give life
to brand Sri Lanka with a rub off effect on exports and FDIs. I guess the next 18
months will be crucial for the tourism industry where a new room stock is also
coming into play and the industry under pressure financially. Let see how things
evolve

Lesson 3 – Different actors

While the war on the LTTE was in progress, the President personally managed key
stakeholders such as India, China and Japan so that global support was garnered.
To my mind, this was pivotal to the overall victory. In contrast, between 1987 and
1990, the Sri Lankan Army was just closing its net on the LTTE head when there
was foreign intervention and the LTTE got away.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The lesson for GOSL is that whilst putting the fundamentals rights the key
stakeholders like lobby groups, internal public, foreign governments and the
media has to be managed. But sadly, we once again see how poor the current
Government is on managing issues like the Kandy riots that hit the global media.
It not only dented the image of the country but affected the tourism numbers
that visit Kandy and the holiday season in Nuwara Eliya. The blanket blockage of
FB and WhatsApp added fuel to fire. This also showed the weakness of the
Government in handling global PR. Let’s see how the alleged cricket scam
reported by Aljazeera TV channel gets handled in the next few months.

Lesson 4 – Pick your men, though unpopular

When the former Army Commander was asked by a reporter what the key to the
success on ground was, he answered, “I selected the task force and Brigade
Commanders not on seniority but on past capabilities on the battle field because
when I was at the battlefront, I had the opportunity to observe the performances
of the officers. I also selected those officers who had confidence in me.”

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The capability of the current Government can be evaluated with research findings
of the Pathfinder Report 2018. It highlighted how in 2017 only 8% of the Budget
proposals has been fully implemented, 22% substantial fulfilled and another 22%
at partial fulfillment. This can be one of the reasons for the overall GDP growth of
Sri Lanka to be at a 16-year low of 3.1%.

Given that the new Cabinet reshuffle was based on a ‘scientific study’ let’s see if
at least in 2018 the budgeted proposals happen. The indications on media is that
people have not been selected on merit and yet the delivery is poor. Let’s see
what happens in the next six months for the financial year 2018.

Lesson 5 – Single command

The Army leadership practiced a clear single command leadership of all divisions
and task forces that were created so that there was synergy. Separately it was
mentioned by the leadership that no brigade, battalion or a division can win a war
in isolation and the backup facilities were carefully planned under one leadership.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The implication to Sri Lanka is that we must be sensitive to the reality. As per the
AC Nielsen tracking report, consumer end household consumption has contracted
for the fifth quarter in succession with Q1-2018, on food, personal care. The
current spike on fuel prices will sure drive the Q2-2018 inflation due to the spiral
effects on transport, which means further pressure on the household
consumption. What Sri Lanka now needs is a single command leadership.

Post 10 February elections, which was a whitewash by the Opposition, there were
moves for the economy to be handled by the President, but yet Sri Lanka is not
sure who runs the economy. The speech the President made at the 76th
commemoration of the late Ven. Sobitha Thera held at the Foundation Institute
citing the making of the ‘100 day plan’ without his knowledge and the bond scam
intimates the ‘single command’ leadership not in the system. Let’s see what
happens in the next six months of 2018.

Lesson 6 – Firepower

In 1983, Prabhakaran apparently had only 12 cadres with 20 shotguns but by 2006
the LTTE had aircrafts, tanks, submarines, missiles and a brigade of more than
20,000. In 2006 after the Mavil Aru anicut issue that the LTTE created, the Army
first sharpened its human capital, bolstered the necessary machine power and
developed an efficient supply chain efficiency that helped outsmart the enemy on
all fronts.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The best parallel is the bond scam. Even after Interpol has been alerted, the
summons on the former Governor of the Central Bank has not netted the
individual. Though the current Government was voted in for good governance,
the bond scam backed by the removal of the Finance Minister has really dented
the global reputation of Sri Lanka. Sadly we lack the firepower in the Government
to correct this issue. Even the impeachment of the Prime Minister was a non-
starter for correction for the country to take a new direction. Sri Lanka will watch
the developments in the balance part of 2018.

Lesson 7 – Media

When the war became intense, we saw the strategic moves where all media
rallied around the security forces and got the nation’s support. It is called building
a visionary community that came from the President downwards.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The implication to the Government is that the recent statement by the Media
Spokesperson in the war casualties went viral to all quartets of the country,
including the UN. The clergy came out on this which just shows how away the
current Government is with the media and general public. Some say that Sri
Lankans do not have to watch movies for entertainment as the ‘news’ by the
politicians does this service. Let’s see how the balance part of 2018 unfolds.

Lesson 8 – Intelligence

It is a fact that one of the key points to the success of the war was accurate
intelligence that key decision-makers received. The Navy was able to sink almost
10 LTTE arms ships due to the information provided by the Directorate of Military
Intelligence (DMI).

The implication

to GOSL – 2018
The aerial attack by the Sri Lankan air force that killed S.P. Thamilselvan is another
classic example of the importance of intelligence, but the current GOSL is very
thin on information gathering. For instance, even after three years none of those
involved in the alleged scandals of the former regime has been brought to book.
Leave alone a conviction, there is zero progress. A case in point is the Ruggerite
Thajudeen death or the journalist Lasantha Wickrematunge. It just indicates the
weakness of intelligence gathering and fulfilling an election promise made in
2015. The President at the 76th commemoration of late Ven. Sobitha Thero gave
a new twist to the workings during the last three years. Let’s see if there will be
progress in the next 18 months.

Lesson 9 – Finish

to the kill

The final battle started in Villamulvaikkal at 2:57 a.m. when 250 LTTE cadres had
formed a ring around Prabhakaran and top LTTE leaders. The Sri Lankan troops
completed its task during that day and completed an initiative that started two
years and 10 months earlier.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The lesson for the current Government is the ongoing issue of SAITM and the
piecemeal solution given to solve the issue. Every three months we see
demonstrations and water cannon attacks that given fuel for the media to show
how weak the Government is. Let›s see if at least this time around post KDA
solutions will hold the country together.

Lesson 10 – Simple life

At a recent interview General Sarath Fonseka said that post the 2009 war coming
to an end, he has been living in the same house and the only satisfaction he
attempts to get is from his job. He was not into eating in five-star hotels or living
in large houses and he wants to continue that same simple life focused on
achievement.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

Even with such talented and task-driven personalities in the current Government,
the leadership fails to give such individuals responsibility or empower them with a
task that can change the Government›s performance. It just shows that the
current Government lacks the guts to go against the grain and focus on an
achievement culture.

Lesson 11 – Young blood

At the saluting parade the Army Commander commented that the war was won
by the soldiers on the ground and if not for the youngsters that joined the Army,
this victory would have not been possible. Youngsters tend to have no inhibitions
and past experience that may impede an’ impossible task’.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

The current Government has many youngsters who are very talented and
absolute implementers with a private sector attitude. But the reality is that they
are not given a chance to show their talent. Some are coming forward and voicing
their displeasure but yet the leaders sadly do not heed their call.

Lesson 12 – Top with you

In my view, one of the key points in defeating the LTTE was that the security force
commanders had the backing of the Head of State and the Defence Secretary with
a strong common understanding. This was the edge that tilted the coin as well
and the whole nation coming together. It was one voice from the top.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

As at now there is a power struggle at the top post the defeated impeachment. In
fact, media reports that most politicians are having an indirect link to the
Opposition so that in the event there is a sudden change, one’s positions can be
secured. This is against the grain of an achievement-driven leadership model.
Let›s see how the cold war sees Sri Lanka through in the balance part of 2018 as
we are stacked against a debt service bill of $ 4.2 billion and 3.8 billion in the next
two years.

Lesson 13 – Political strength

Another key point that helped the country achieve freedom from terrorism is the
management of political strength when there was so much external pressure. This
was very cleverly managed by the President so as to not impact the security
forces. The implication to business is that in reality, all organisations, be it small or
big, have politicking and this has to be managed.

The implication

to GOSL – 2018

Whilst the Prime Minister must be congratulated for managing difficult situations
in his own party, the fact of the matter is that it has not done any good to the
common man post the 10 February elections which was a disaster to the Coalition
Government. Many are yet hopeful that there will be change in 2018 but I guess
we will have to wait.

As at now Q1-2018 has been a negative performance on profit for most listed
companies with profits declining, whilst at the household end, the cost of living
being a drag. Cheque returns in Q4-2017 had increased to 4.2% from 3.5% which
are indications of the challenge to living. Let›s see how the next three quarters
perform as most companies have put their shutters up on new investments.

Conclusion – 2018

Hence, we see that even after the war coming to a close in 2009, the lessons from
the war are yet valid in 2018 in administering Sri Lanka. Some say that the GOSL
did what was right when the enemy was real – Prabhakaran was alive, but in the
absence of a true opposition has led to a breakdown of cutting-edge strategy.

(The writer has a double degree in marketing, MBA and has a doctorate in
business. He is an alumnus of Harvard Kennedy School. He has served 23 years in
British and American multinationals including the UN. He is currently the Country
Director for Sri Lanka and Maldives for a top global organisation.)
Posted by Thavam