Decline Curves

Decline Curves that plot flow rate vs. time are the most common tools for
forecasting production and monitoring well performance in the field. These curves
quickly show by graphic means which wells or fields are producing as expected or
under producing. Mainly used because they are easy to set up and to use in the
field. They are not based on any of the physics of the flow of oil and gas through
the rock formations, empirical in nature. The most common forms are daily flow
rates vs. the month. Water and gas rates are commonly plotted along with the oil
rate, or GOR and WOR. Cumulative production vs. the months is also very
common, both oil and water can be plotted.
These plots are plotted both on linear plots and semi-log plots with the q on the log
scale.

 Exponential decline (constant fractional decline)

 Harmonic decline, and
 Hyperbolic decline.

1 dq
 bq d
q dt

b & d empirical constants based on production data

d= 0 exponential decline d=1 harmonic decline
0<d<1 hyperbolic decline

Exponential Decline
The relative decline rate and production rate decline equations for the exponential
decline model can be derived from volumetric reservoir model. Cumulative
production expression is obtained by integrating the production rate decline
equation.
Relative Decline Rate
Consider an oil well drilled in a volumetric oil reservoir. Suppose the well’s
production rate starts to decline when a critical (lowest permissible) bottom hole
pressure is reached. Under the pseudo-steady state flow condition, the production
rate at a given decline time t can be expressed as:
 kh( pt  p cwf )
q (2)
  0.472re  
141.2 B0  ln    s 
  rw  

where pt = average reservoir pressure at decline time t,

c
p wf = the critical bottom hole pressure maintained during the production
decline.

The cumulative oil production of the well after the production decline time t can be
expressed as:

t kh( pt  p cwf )
Np   dt (3)
  0.472re  
141.2 Bo  ln    s 
0

  rw  

The cumulative oil production after the production decline upon decline time t can
also be evaluated based on the total reservoir compressibility:

ct N i
Np   p 0  pt  (4)
Bo

where c t = total reservoir compressibility,

N i = initial oil in place in the well drainage area,
p 0 = average reservoir pressure at decline time zero.

Substituting Eq (3) into Eq (4) yields:

t kh( pt  p cwf )
 dt 
ct N i
 p 0  pt  (5)
  0.472re   Bo
141.2 Bo  ln    s 
0

  rw  

Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with respect to time t gives the
differential equation for reservoir pressure:
 kh( pt  p cwf ) dpt
 ct N i (6)
  0.472re   dt
141.2 ln    s 
  rw  

Since the left-hand-side of this equation is q and Eq (2) gives

dq kh dpt
 (7)
dt   0.472re   dt
141.2 B0  ln    s 
  rw  
Eq (6) becomes
  0.472re  
 141.2ct N i  ln    s 
q   rw   dq
(8)
kh dt
or the relative decline rate equation of
1 dq
 b (9)
q dt

where
kh
b . (10)
  0.472re  
141.2ct N i ln    s 
  rw  
Production Rate Decline
Equation (6) can be expressed as:
dpt
 b( pt  p cwf )  (11)
dt
By separation of variables, Eq (8.11) can be integrated
t pt
dpt
  bdt   (p (12)
t  p wf )
c
0 p0

to yield an equation for reservoir pressure decline:


pt  p cwf  p0  p cwf e bt
(13)
Substituting Eq (13) into Eq (2) gives well production rate decline equation:
 kh( p0  p cwf )
q e bt (14)
  0.472re  
141.2 Bo  ln    s 
  rw  
or
bct N i
q ( p0  p cwf ) e bt (15)
Bo

which is the exponential decline model commonly used for production decline
analysis of solution-gas-drive reservoirs. In practice, the following form of Eq (15)
is used:
q  qi e bt (16)
where qi is the production rate at t = 0.
q2 q3 q
It can be shown that   ......  n  e b . That is, the fractional decline is
q1 q2 qn1
constant for exponential decline.
Cumulative Production
Integration of Eq (16) over time gives an expression for the cumulative oil
production since decline of
t t
N p   qdt   qi e bt dt (17)
0 0

i.e.,

Np 
qi
b

1  e bt . (18)

Since q  qi e bt , Eq (18) becomes

Np 
1
qi  q  . (19)
b
8 Determination of Decline Rate
The constant b is called the continuous decline rate. Its value can be determined
from production history data. If production rate and time data are available, the b-
value can be obtained based on the slope of the straight line on a semi-log plot. In
fact, taking logarithm of Eq (8.16) gives:
ln q   ln qi   bt (20)
which implies that the data should form a straight line with a slope of -b on the
log(q) versus t plot, if exponential decline is the right model. Picking up any two
points, (t1, q1) and (t2, q2), on the straight line will allow analytical determination of
b-value because
ln q1   ln qi   bt1 (21)
and
ln q2   ln qi   bt2 (22)
give
1 q 
b ln  1  . (23)
t2  t1   q2 

If production rate and cumulative production data are available, the b-value can be
obtained based on the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot. In fact,
rearranging Eq (19) yields:

q  qi  bN p (24)
Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on the straight line will allow
analytical determination of b-value because
q1  qi  bN p1 (25)
and
q2  qi  bN p 2 (26)
give
q1  q2
b . (27)
N p 2  N p1
Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have different units such as month-1 and
year-1. The following relation can be derived:
ba  12bm  365bd . (28)
where ba, bm, and bd are annual, monthly, and daily decline rates.
Effective Decline Rate
Because the exponential function is not easy to use in hand calculations,
traditionally the effective decline rate has been used. Since e x  1  x for small x-
values based on Taylor’s expansion, e b  1  b holds true for small values of b.
The b is substituted by b' , the effective decline rate, in field applications. Thus Eq
(16) becomes
q  qi 1 b'
t
(29)
q 2 q3 q
Again, it can be shown that   ......  n  1  b' .
q1 q2 qn1

Depending on the unit of time t, the b' can have different units such as month-1 and
year-1. The following relation can be derived:
1  b'a   1  b'm 12  1  b'd 365 . (30)
where b' a, b' m, and b' d are annual, monthly, and daily effective decline rates.

Example Problem
Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day during a one-month
period, use the exponential decline model to perform the following tasts:

a) Predict the production rate after 11 more months

b) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year
c) Project the yearly production for the well for the next 5 years.

Solution:

a) Production rate after 11 more months:

1 q 
bm  ln  0 m 
t1m  t 0 m   q1m 

 1   100 
   ln    0.04082 /month
 1   96 
 Rate at end of one year

q1m  q0m e bmt  100e 0.0408212  61.27 stb/day

If the effective decline rate b’ is used,

q0 m  q1m 100  96
b' m    0.04/month .
q0 m 100

From

1  b' y  1  b'm   1  0.04

12 12

one gets

b' y  0.3875/year

Rate at end of one year

q1  q0 1  b' y   1001  0.3875  61.27 stb/day

b) The amount of oil produced during the first year:

by  0.0408212  0.48986/year

q0  q1  100  61.27 
N p ,1   365  28,858 stb
by  0.48986 

or

  100  1  1
bd  ln     0.001342
  96  30.42  day

N p ,1 
100
0.001342
 
1  e 0.001342365  28,858 stb
c) Yearly production for the next 5 years:

N p,2 
61.27
0.001342
 
1  e 0.001342365  17,681 stb

q2  qi e bt  100e 0.0408212( 2)  37.54 stb/day

N p ,3 
37.54
0.001342
 
1  e 0.001342365  10,834 stb

q3  qi e bt  100e 0.0408212(3)  23.00 stb/day

N p,4 
23.00
0.001342
 
1  e 0.001342365  6,639 stb

q4  qi e bt  100e 0.0408212( 4)  14.09 stb/day

N p ,5 
14.09
0.001342
 
1  e 0.001342365  4,061 stb
 In summary,

Rate at End of Yearly

Year
Year (stb/day) Production (stb)
0 100.00 -
1 61.27 28,858
2 37.54 17,681
3 23.00 10,834
4 14.09 6,639
5 8.64 4,061
68,073
Go do,

Celtic #3
Acme Southeast San Andres, Ponderosa Petroleum