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Shell Climate 1988
Shell Climate 1988
CONFIDENTIAL
This document is confidential. Neither the whole nor any part of this document may be disclosed to any third party without the prior written consent of
The copyright of this document is vested in Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands. All rights reserved. Neither the whole nor any
part of this document may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, reprographic, recording or
CONFIDENTIAL
This document is confidential. Neither the whole nor any part of this document may be disclosed to any third party without the prior written consent of
Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands.
The copyright of this document is vested in Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands. All rights reserved. Neither the whole nor any
part of this document may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, reprographic, recording or
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SUMMARY
The likely time scale of possible change does not necessitate immediate
remedial action. However, the potential impacts are sufficiently serious for
research to be directed more to the analysis of policy and energy options
than to studies of what we will be facing exactly. Anticipation of climatic
change is new, preventing undue change is a challenge which requires
international cooperation.
With fossil fuel combustion being the major source of C02 in the atmosphere,
a forward looking approach by the energy industry is clearly desirable,
seeking to play its part with governments and others in the development of
appropriate measures to tackle the problem.
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONTENTS
p age
S umm a ry 1
1 . Introduc t i on 6
2 . S c i enti f i c data 7
2.1. Introduc t i on 7
2.2. Data on emi s s i ons o f greenhous e gas e s 7
2 . 2 . 1 . C arbon diox i de 7
2 . 2 . 2 . O ther greenhous e gas e s 8
2.3. The global c arbon cycl e 10
2 . 3 . 1 . A tmo sphere - ocean interact ions 11
2 . 3 . 2 . Atmo sphere - t e rre s t r i a l b io sphere interac t i ons 13
2 . 3 . 3 . C arbon cyc l e mo de l l ing 15
4 . Imp l ications 23
4. 1. Po tent i al effe c t s of global warming induce d by greenhous e
gas e s 23
4 . 1 . 1 . Ab i o t i c effe c t s and b i o t i c cons e quence s 23
4 . 1 . 2 . S oc i o - e conomic imp l i c a t i ons 25
4 . 1 . 3 . Imp l i c a t i ons for the energy indus try 28
4 . 1 . 4 . Imp l ications for She l l Companie s 28
6 . Re ferenc e s 32
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FIGURES page
Fig . 2 . C02 emi s s ions der ived from long - range proj e c ti ons
and h i s tor ic produc t i on from fos s i l fue l s . 41
Fig . 8. Increas e in atmo sphe r ic C02 conc entrat ion over the next
1 5 0 ye ars . 47
Fig . 1 1 . C l imati c e ffe cts o f a doub l ing o f the pre s ent atmo spher i c
C 0 2 c oncentrat i on . 50
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TABLES p age
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APPENDICES p age
App endix 5 . Inte rnational o rganisat ions and info rmat ion c entre s . 75
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1 . I NTRODUCTI ON
The l i fe - support ing sys tems of the e arth ( such as l ight , energy , mo i s ture ,
and t emperature ) c an be affec te d by change s in global condi tions . Many o f
such change s a r e occurring at pres ent , s ome o f them sub t l e and many of them
c aus e d by man . Thes e effe c ts on the l i fe - support ing sys tems c an have a
sub s tant i al imp ac t on global hab itab i l i ty . The rate at whi ch many of the s e
change s are occurr ing , espec ially during the pas t few decade s , has b e en
c ons i derab l e . A obvious examp le of thi s i s the r i s ing l evel o f atmo spher i c
c arbon diox i de ( C02 ) . Thi s has b e en des c r ibed as a long - t e rm global
exper iment , the outcome of whi ch is very uncertain .
Many s c ient i s ts b e l i eve that the maj or e ffec t of increas ing the C02 c ontent
of the atmo sphere wi l l be a gradual warming of the e ar th ' s sur fac e . Should
ave r age global tempe ratures r i s e s igni ficantly becaus e o f the greenhous e
e ffe c t and should the earth ' s c l imate change , thi s could have maj or e c onomic
and s o c ial cons e quences . However , not eve ryone agr e e s w i th thi s v iew of
po s s ib l e di s as ter . They po int to the demons trab l e p o s i t ive e ffec t s o f
e l evated C 0 2 c onc entrations , and sugges t a bene f i t to the b i o sphe re w i thout
the generation of a c l imat i c c atas trophe . Agains t th is b acklog of
d i s agreement s c ient i s ts o f b o th p e rsuas ions have s e ar ched f o r the firs t
s igns o f any e ffe c ts on a global s cale .
Re ference s us e d in thi s s e c t i on : 2 , 14 , 2 1 , 2 5 , 5 1 , 5 9 .
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2 . S C I ENTI FI C DATA
2 . 1 . Introduc t i on
Dur ing the las t c entury the c oncentration of c arbon diox i de increased from
an e stimated 2 9 0 ppm in 1 8 6 0 to 340 ppm in 1 9 8 0 . Approximate ly 2 5 % o f thi s
inc r e a s e o ccurred during the 1 9 7 0 s . Al though the c oncentrat i on o f C02 in the
a tmo sphere i s relative ly smal l , i t i s important in de t e rmining the global
c l imate . It p e rmi t s vis ib l e and ul travio l e t radiat ion from the sun to
pene trate to the e ar th ' s surfac e , but abs o rb s s ome o f the infrare d energy
that i s radi ated back into s pace . The atmo spher i c C02 emi t s thi s energy to
b o th the troposphere and to the earth ' s sur face ( se e Fig . 1 ) , r e sul t ing in a
warming o f the sur face and the a tmosphere in the way the glas s in a·
gre enhous e doe s - hence the t e rm greenhous e e ffec t .
I t has b e en generally accepted that any modi ficat i on in the rad i a t i on energy
balance of the atmo sphere wi l l affe c t the global c irculat ion patterns . As a
c ons e quence regional c l imat i c change s w i l l then o c cur , which wi l l be greater
than the average global change s . The mo s t promi s ing approach to s tudy the
e ffe c t s of increas ing gas concentrations on the atmo sphe re , i s to de s c r ibe
and predic t the (future ) global c l imate by comp lex General C l imate Mode l s
(GCM ' s ) . The main fac tors and proce s s e s us e d to predict the e ar th ' s
t emp e rature prof i l e s and c l imatic change s are pre s ented in th i s s e c t ion . The
extent and rate o f the change s , bas e d on s c enar i o s for energy consump t ion
and emi s s i on of C02 and o ther trace gas e s , will b e d i s cus s e d in s e c t ion 3 .
2 . 2 . 1 . Carbon d i ox ide
Al though C02 is emi tted to the atmo sphere as a c ons e quence of s everal
p r o ce s s e s , e . g . oxidation of humic sub s tance s and de fore s ta t i on , the main
c aus e o f increas ing C02 c oncentrat i ons i s cons idered to b e fo s s i l fue l
burning . Only fos s i l fuel burning c an be fairly accurate ly quant i fi e d .
S ince the beginning o f the indus t r i al and agr i cul tural revo lut ions the
average annual inc r e a s e in C02 produc t i on has been 3 . 5 % , w i th t o tal
emi s s i ons from � i d - n ine teenth c entury to 1 9 8 1 be ing 160 G tC ( 1 G tC-1 gigaton
1
o f c arbon - 1 0 g C ) . In 1 8 6 0 the annual emis s i on was approximate ly 0 . 0 9 3
G t C and i n 1 9 8 1 5 . 3 G t C . R i s ing fue l p r i c e s i n the 1 9 7 0 ' s s lackened the C02
produc t ion to yearly increas e s o f 2 . 2 % per year over the period 1 9 7 3 - 1 9 8 0
( s e e the f i r s t part o f Fig . 2 ) .
The C02 emit te d into the a tmo sphere i s very qui ckly global ly d i s tr ibute d .
Thi s i s mainly due to the fac t that the emi s s i ons are more o r l e s s evenly
d i s tr ibut e d over the c ont inent s . Moreove r , the mixing t ime of the atmo sphere
wi thin a hemi sphere i s only a few weeks and the inte rchange b e tween the
hemisphere s t ake s 6 - 1 2 months . C02 has a res idenc e t ime in the a tmosphere o f
3 - 4 years , s o i s reas onably we l l mixe d global ly .
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World C02 emi s s ions based on ene rgy growth rat e s ( s e e Tab l e 1 ) show that
there has b e en a s lowing in the upwar ds growth o f emi s s ions s ince 1 9 7 3 . In
1 9 8 1 , o f the total emi s s ion o f 5 . 3 GtC 44 % came from o i l , 3 8 % from coal , and
1 7 % from gas .
The produc t i on o f C02 d i ffers c ons i derably from country to c ountry . The
l arge s t quanti t i e s (based on 1 9 7 5 f igure s ) are produce d in the deve loped
count r i e s w i th a world average o f 1 . 2 tonne s C p e r p e r s on ( se e Tab l e 3 ) .
The e ar th ' s atmo sphere current ly c ontains " trace gas e s " wi th a tmo sphe r i c
l i fe t ime s that vary from much l e s s than an hour to s everal hundred years
( s e e Tab l e 4 ) . From a viewpo int of global c l imate e ffec t s , spe c i e s w i th
extremely shor t l i fe t ime s are unl ike ly to p l ay an important d i r e c t role .
Mo re p e r s i s tent trace gas e s , howeve r , may c ontr ibute to modi ficat i ons o f the
energy balance o f the earth-atmo sphere sys tem and amp l i fy the e s t imat e d C02
warming . Increas ing c oncentrations o f the s e gas e s are d i r e c tly or indi r e c t ly
a c ons equence o f human ac t ivi t i e s . Mos t o f the man-made trace gas e s are
l i s te d in Tab l e 4 ; the mos t important one s are b r i e fly d i s cus s e d b e l ow .
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Me thane
CO + OH --7 C02 + H (3 )
c ontro l s the global de s truc t ion of OH , the dominant oxi d i s ing spec i e s in the
troposphere . Re ac t i on (2 ) is such a dominant l o s s mechanism for CH4 that
more than 9 0 % of the global de s truc t ion o f CH4 o ccurs in the troposphere .
S o , CH4 and CO are c l o s e ly c oupled pho tochemically through OH . The dominant
s ink of atmo spher i c CH4 , OH , is thus affe c te d by increas e d l eve l s o f
troposphe r i c CO or o f CH4 i t s e l f . The r e fore , increas ing c oncentr a t i ons o f C O
due to fos s i l fue l ( incomp l e te c ombus t i on ) us age and ox i dation of
anthropogenic hydrocarbons i n the atmo sphe re , w i l l reduce the r a t e at whi ch
CH4 i s de s troye d .
Chloro fluorocarbons (CFC ' s ) are ent i r e ly a produc t o f human ac t ivi ty , b e ing
p r e s ent in gas p ropel l e d spray c ans , r e fr i geration e quipment and insul ated
p ackaging mate r i al s . The s e chemicals c ame into maj o r use in the 1 9 6 0 ' s and
ini t ia l ly e xh ib i te d a rap i d growth (10 - 1 5 % p e r year ) . The glob a l emi s s ions
of the maj o r C FC's then dec l ined s omewhat from the mid - 1 9 7 0's through to
1 9 8 2 in part due to a ban on s ome none s s ential us age s (e . g . spray c ans ) of
C FC's and to adver s e e c onomic c ondi t i ons . Howeve r , the emi s s i ons increa s e d
s ign i f i c antly s ince 1 9 8 3 . Eas tern b l o ck c ount r i e s have apparently never
r e duc e d the ir produc t i on o f C FC ' s , s o world w i de us e i s now r i s ing , and i s
e xpected t o grow more becaus e o f the us e i n l e s s indus trial i s e d countr i e s .
When C FC's are r e l e a s e d to the atmo sphere , the i r inertne s s to mos t
bi o l o g ical p r o ce s s e s a l l ows them t o b e transported t o the s tr atosphe re ,
where they are b roken down by sunl i gh t . Liberated chl or ine c a talyt ical ly
des troys o zone .
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Ozone
The c arb on cyc l e ( Fig . 6 ) invo lves numerous b iological , geologi c a l , phys i cal
and chemical proce s s es and c an roughly be divided into two ma in cyc le s , a
b io logical and a geo logical one . The ge ological cyc l e i s a r e l a t ive ly
long - t e rm cyc l e charac te r i s e d by s low pro c e s s e s , i . e . the r e l e a s e of C02
through rock weathe r ing and ult imate pre c ip i tat ion as c al c ium c arbonate .
S ince man s tart e d to burn fo s s il fue l the s low p ro ce s s e s have been
unbalance d by affe c t ing the maj or r e s e rvo i r .
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Contrary to the near cons tancy o f the fluxe s in the b i ological cycl e , one o f
the mo s t important r e s e rvo irs there in ( the land b i o ta , i . e . the l iving
o rgani sms on land , o f which the p l ants repres ent the maj or b i omas s ) has b een
affe c ted s ince man s tarted releas ing c arbon diox i de by defore s ta t i on and
expans ion of arab l e land .
The maj o r i ty o f the c arbon in the ocean i s pre s ent as an inorganic frac t ion ,
i . e . 3 9 , 000 G t C as d i s s o lved inorganic carbon ( DI G or C ) . The DIG i s
pre s ent as di s s o lved components o f the c arbon diox i de e qui l ibrium sys tem :
C02 , b i carbonate and c arbonate .
The r ema ining c arbon i s pre s ent as an organic frac t i on , o f whi ch only 1 . 5 %
i s f ixed in l iving organi sms , and the re s t i s dead o rganic mate r i al pre s ent
a s di s s olved organic carbon (DOC , about 1000 G tC ) , and parti culate organic
c arbon (POC , about 3 0 GtC ( s ee Fig . 6 ) .
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organic t i s sue s by the pho to syn thetic act ivi ty o f phytop l ankton occur s only
in o c e an surface water ( the euphotic z one ) . Thi s i s the z one where l ight
energy for pho tosynthes i s and growth i s no t l im i te d , s o that the produc t i on
o f organic mate r ial i s greater than the breakdown . In the trop i c s thi s z one
is l im i t e d to the upper 100 m of the s ea , whi l e in temperate c l imates i t i s
b e twe en 2 0 and 5 0 m i n summ e r and z ero i n winte r . I n deeper water s , the
apho t i c z one , there is a ne t l o s s o f organic mat e r i a l , s ince b r e akdown
exce e ds produc tion .
I f the increas ing a tmospher i c C02 c ause s s igni f icant change s in the global
c l imate , indire c t e ffec ts on pr imary produc t i on c an be exp e c te d . If there
were to b e l o c al ly increas ing c l oudine s s then thi s reduc e s the s o lar e nergy
r eaching the ocean and cons e quently a l s o the pr imary produc ti on . Any warming
of the upper l ayer s would increase the formation of s table water mas s e s ,
thereby reduc ing ver t ical mixing . The s ub s e quent dep l e t i on o f nutr ients in
the eupho t i c z one will caus e a decreas e in p r imary produc t ion .
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I f C02 i s added to the o c e an surface , the pH decre as e s and the tendency for
d i s s o lut ion of carbonate mine rals ( e . g . c alc i t e and aragoni te ) , e i ther in
b o ttom s ediment s or suspended in the wate r c o lumn , inc reas e s , the r eby
increas ing b o th the alkal in i ty and the to tal D I C ( s e e a l s o App endix 1 ) .
Howeve r , CaC03 i s a l s o a maj or cons t i tuent o f she l l s o f calcareous o rgani sms
and c o ral s . Part icularly in near - shore areas the s e organi sms wi l l be exp o s e d
to wate rs r i ch in C 0 2 and w i th a low pH . D i s s o luti on o f shel l s and corals
and s ub s e quently local but mas s ive deaths o f organi sms on a local s c ale i s
the r e fore not unreal i s t ic . I f d i s s o lution o f c arbonate s o c cur s , the
alkal ini ty and C02 content increas e and the ne t e ffec t o f the alkal ini ty
increase gene rates an increas ing cap ac i ty of the o c e an for C02 up take . Thi s
feedback mechani sm might have reduc ing e ffe c t s on a r i s ing a tmospher i c C02
l eve l , al though probab ly not in the shor t - t e rm , a s there are kine t i c l im i ts
and contro l s on c arbonate di s s olution .
Referenc e s us e d in thi s s e c t i on : 3 , 6 , 7 , 1 1 , 2 2 , 3 6 , 42 , 5 6 , 6 0 .
NPP - G P - R (5)
A
where GP i s the gros s produc t i on , the t otal pho tosynthes is o f the sys tem and
R i s the resp i rat ion of autotrophs , the green p l ant s . Four , ve rtically
A
arrange d , c omponents o f the b i o sphere c ontr ibute to the NPP , i . e . leave s ,
branche s , s tems and roo ts . E s t imates o f NPP for the d i fferent e c o sys tems are
g iven in Tab l e 5 .
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The ne t flux o f carbon b e tween the atmo sphere and any e co sys tem i s
det e rmined by the balance b e tween gro s s produc t i on and resp irat i on o f a l l
l iv ing organisms :
NEP - GP - (R +
A
�) (6)
where NEP i s the net eco sys tem produc ti on , the ne t flux o f carbon into or
from an e c o sys tem and � is the r e sp irat ion o f the heterotrophs , . inc luding
a l l animals and dec omposers . Thus , R + Ru repres ent the natural flux o f C02
from the terre s tr ial e co sys t ems to �e a£mo sphere . The p r imary evidence of
the importance of the terre s tr ial b io t a for the C02 content o f the
atmo sphe re is shown by the short - t e rm o s c i l l a t i ons o f a tmospher i c C02 , _
The NEP tends to b e z ero in a s table e c o sys tem , but i s p ermanently pos i t ive
when human dis turbance is pre s ent . Es t imates of the to tal NPP for al l
t e r re s trial e co sys tems vary b e tween 5 0 - 6 0 G t C per year ; the mean t o tal plant
r e sp iration of all e cosys tems ( R ) is about e qual to NPP; so , about 5 0 % of
A
GP is needed by the p l ants for resp i ration ( R ) . The he t ero trophic
A
resp irat ion (Ru) i s 3 5 - 50 G t C p e r year . Thes e fluxe s charac ter i s e the
natural and we f l-balanc ed exchange rate o f about 1 0 0 G t C per year b e tween
t e rr e s t r i al b io ta and atmo sphere .
Human inte r ference ( cutting , burning , sh i f t ing o f cult ivat ion and changing
of e co sys tems ) has no t only large e ffec ts on the amount of carbon s tored in
the eco sys tems ( the r e s e rvo i r ) , but al s o affe c t s the fluxe s . There has been
a ne t r e l e a s e o f carbon s ince at least 1 8 6 0 . Unt i l about 1 9 6 0 , the annual
r e l e a s e was gre ater than the release o f carbon from fos s i l fue l s . The to tal
ne t re l eas e from terre s t r i a l e cosys tems s ince 1 8 6 0 is e s t imated to have been
1 8 0 GtC ( w i th a r ange o f e s t imate s o f 1 3 5 - 2 2 8 G t C ) . The e s t imated ne t
r e l e a s e o f c arbon in 1 9 8 0 was 1 . 8 - 4 . 7 G t C , from 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 8 0 the r e l e a s e o f C
was 3 8 - 7 6 G tC . The range s re flec t the differenc e s among vari ous e s t imat e s
for fore s t b iomas s , s o i l carbon , and agr icul tural clear ing .
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comp l e te p l ant .
Effe c t s on ecosys tems are de termine d by the s tab i l i ty of the sys tem . In
s tab l e ( c l imax ) e c o sys tems (e . g. undi s turbed fore s ts ) in whi ch gro s s
pho to synthe s i s i s e quated by to tal r e s p i ra t i on ( NEP � 0 ) , the NEP m i ght
b e c ome pos i t ive depending on to what extent o ther fac tors are l im i t ing ( e . g .
nutr i ents ) . In deve lop ing ecosys tems , the NEP i s p ermanently p o s i t ive and
w i l l increase unt i l a new ( s tab l e ) e qui l ib r ium i s r eached . Incre as e of NEP
w i l l b e greater whe re the supply o f nutrients is greate r , e . g . in h i ghly
p r o duct ive agr icul tural sys tems . Howeve r , here the s torage o f carbon i s only
a sma l l frac t ion of the annual product i on .
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In the l as t few year s CCM ' s have become mor e s oph i s t i cated . Ther e are now
s everal dynamic , proces s - or i ented mode l s whi ch repre s ent for examp le
accumul ation and decay of dead vege tat ion , proce s s ing o f c arbon in soils and
humus , and chem i s try , phys i c s and b iology of the o c e an . Pub l i shed mode l s
have b e en cal ibrated to agr e e w e l l w i th the change in atmo spher i c C02
c oncentrat i on ob s erved unti l now . However , no mode l has b e en properly
val i dated agains t all trends and al l data on emi s s ion rates . The mo s t
important unc e rtaint i e s are :
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Unde r s tandab ly , many pre - 1 9 7 5 s tudi e s as sumed that future ener gy growth
rates would be e quival ent to the his tor ical average of 4 . 5 % per year .
However , i t i s now acknowle dged that the " C02 commun i ty " shoul d make b e t t e r
us e o f the mo s t recent s cenar ios in which world energy consump ti on i s
chi e fly de t e rmine d b y economic and s ocio - pol it i cal force s . Mo s t recent
e s t imat e s from such s ource s as the US Environmental Pro tect ion Agency ( EPA ) ,
the I nternat i onal Ins t i tute for App l i e d Sys tems Analys i s ( I IASA) , the
Interna t i onal Energy Agency (lEA) and the US Nat ional Academy o f Science s
show that , b a s e d o n calculated future C 0 2 emi s s ions , pre - indus trial
atmo sphe ric concentrations could doub l e ( i . e . p a s s 6 0 0 ppm) s ome t ime
be tween 2 040 and 2 0 8 0 ( s ee F i g . 8 ) , the range re flect ing the uncertaint i e s
w i th r e gard to future growth and energy deve lopments .
By comb ining e s t imates o f energy demand and fuel mix , C02 emis s i ons can b e
e s t imate d . In F i g . 2 a number of long r ange C 0 2 proj ect ions a r e pre s ented .
E s t imated ave rage annual rate s o f incre a s e of C02 emi s s i ons unti l 2 0 3 0
generally range from 1 to 3 . 5 % . Es t imated annual emi s s i ons r ange from
7 to 1 3 G tC in the year 2 000 and , w i th few excep t i ons , from 10 and 3 0 G t C in
2 0 3 0 . The US Nat i onal Re s earch Council ( NRC ) forecas t in 1 9 8 3 that the
annual increas e woul d be about 1 . 6 % to 2 0 2 5 and about 1% thereafter compared
with an average growth over the pas t 120 years o f 3 . 5 % . The maj o r reasons
for the lower rate are , acco rding to the NRC , an e s t imated s lower growth o f
the glob al economy , further cons ervat ion and a t endency t o s ub s t i tute
non - fos s i l fue l s for fo s s i l fue l s . ( s ee App endix 2 for a discus s ion o f the
NRC Report ) .
The energy s cenar i o s deve loped by Group P lanning g ive e s t imat e s for C02
emi s s i ons in the l ower p art of the r ange for a numb e r of reas ons . In the
f i r s t ins tance , global energy intens i ty has b e en fall ing for many years .
F i gure 9 shows that in the USA the fall has been continuous s ince the
1 9 2 0's . S ince 1 9 7 3 , two change s have occurred : o i l intens i ty , which had been
r i s ing , b egan to fal l , and the decl ine in energy intens i ty acce l er a te d .
Four factors l i e b ehind the fal l in intens i ty : firs tly a shift in deve loped
country econom i e s from heavy indus t ry to· le s s energy - consuming l i ght
indus t ri e s and s e rvice s ; s econdly , the introduct i on of new techno l o g i e s and
proce s s e s which b o th directly and indirectly , consume l e s s energy ; thirdly ,
the deve lopment o f product s ( cars and r e f r i gerators , for example ) whi ch are
more e nergy - e fficient , and f inally , consumers have changed the i r b ehavi our
p a t t e rns to reduc e ene rgy consump t ion as they have become more aware of the
co s t o f energy . Wh i l e the l as t of the s e i s in s ome s ens e revers ib l e as co s ts
decl ine , the f i r s t three are s tructural and are unl ike ly to be reve r s e d .
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In the future , as portrayed in the Group scenar i o s , the intens i ty cont inue s
i t s downward cour s e . Indexed to 1 9 7 3 - 100 , the energy intens i ty in the OEGD
c ountr i e s is e s t imate d as 47 ( Next Wave ) or 5 7 ( D iv i ded World) w i th a
p robab l e range o f 4 5 - 7 5 . The Next Wave scenar i o s e e s a rap id take - up of
technology promo t ing a more rap i d fall in intens i ty . Howeve r , thi s is
outwe i ghed by s trong economic growth and hence a r e l a t ive ly large increase
in energy demand . In D ivide d Worl d , on the o ther hand , e nergy intens i ty
decl ine s more s l owly but economic growth i s al so lower s o tha t , overal l ,
energy demand i s le s s than in the Next Wave .
The world energy demands in the year 2 0 0 5 in the two scenar i o s are ,
r e spect ive ly . New Wave - 2 0 9 Mbdoe (mill ion bar r e l s p e r day o i l e quipment )
and D ivided Wor l d . 1 9 3 Mbdoe . At the s ame t ime , the probab l e ranges are
1 7 8 - 2 2 0 Mbdoe and the pos s ib l e range s are 1 5 8 - 240 Mbdoe .
Whi l e ove rall energy intens i ty i s an important var iab l e in e s t imat ing the
future product i on o f carbon dioxide , a s econd factor i s the compe t i tion
be tween d i fferent fue l s i n the maj or marke ts , i n part icul ar , the r e l a t ive
importance o f the non - fo s s i l fue l s such as hydro and nuclear . The marginal
energy s ource s , w ind , waves , hydrogen , e tc . , are unl ike ly to make s uffici ent
contr ibuti ons to have any s e rious e ffect on C02 l eve l s , nor i s any l arge
move away from hydrocarbon fue ls in the transport marke t expected and
cons e quently change s will r e late to underb o i l e r fue l s and e lectr ici ty
generat ion . Coal i s expecte d to dominate the large indus t r i al under - bo i ler
marke t w i th gas and electr ici ty becoming the maj or e ne r gy s ource s a t the
comme rcial and dome s t ic leve l s . Coal and nucle ar w i l l be the chi e f fue ls
for e lectr i c i ty gene rat ion . Only in the l ong term is a shi ft to o ther ene rgy
s ource s l ike ly to occur . Howeve r , as the amount o f C02 emi tted p e r uni t of
ene rgy d i ffer s cons i derably ( s ee Table 2 ) for the d i f fe rent fos s i l fue l s ,
future emi s s i ons no t only depend on the glob al energy consump t ion but also
on the re lat ive p roportions o f the fos s il energy s ource s ( s ee F i g . 3 ) .
On the b as i s o f the demand e s t imate s from the indivi dual fue l s in e ach
s cenari o the C02 emi s s ions c an be c alculate d . The s e are g iven in Tab l e 6.
In the next century , the world energy p a t t e rn can only be gue s s e d . A key
feature , howeve r , is that b ecaus e of techno log ical change there w i l l be a
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w i der var i e ty o f energy s ource s for exp l o i tat i on than at present . Howeve r ,
no s ingle new e nergy s ource w i l l be ab le to mee t more than 1 0 % o f the
wor l d ' s energy supply and coal wil l p robably be the lar ge s t s ingl e s ource o f
hydrocarbon b a s e d energy . In addi t i on to the main s cenar i o s wh ich extend
only to the year 2 0 0 5 , s ome s tudie s have b e en made w i thin Group P lanning on
the p o s s ib l e us e of energy in the year 2 0 5 0 . Bas ed on s ome hero ic
as s ump t ions no t only o f economic factors but als o s o fter i s sues such as
indivi dual l ife s tyle s and the role o f government , three pro to - sce nari o s have
b e en devel op e d and from the s e pos s ib l e C02 emi s s ions can be calculated .
The s e are at the very bo t tom o f the span o f e s t imat e s made by o ther
ins t i tutions and range from 10 to 11 . 5 GtC p e r annum .
The p rob lem i s that no obvious global s o lut ion i s p r e s ently conce ivab l e
which would r e s ul t in a maj or reduct ion in the r a t e o f increa s e o f
atmo spheric C02 . A r eport i s sued b y the US Environmental Pro tect i on Agency
( EPA) in l ate 1 9 8 3 ( s e e Appendix 2 ) conclude d that only draconian measures
such as a global ban on coal combus t ion could have any s ign i ficant e ffect .
S ince such act i ons are ne i ther economical ly or p o l i t ical ly feas ible ,
individual countr i e s should b e urged to s tudy ways o f adap t ing to the
inev i tab l e r i s e in temperature . The NRC report r e fe rre d to above , which was
pub l i shed at the s ame t ime , i s l e s s p e s s imi s t ic in that i t b e l i eve s that
s trate g i e s such as s ubs tant ial taxation o f fos s i l fue l s m i ght be e ffect ive .
Change s in atmo sph e r ic concentrat ions o f s everal infrared ab s orb ing gas e s ,
b e s i de s C02 , r e s ul t from human act ivi t i e s . Proj ect ions o f future emi s s ions
o f the s e trace gas e s are mos tly at a more p r im i t ive s tage than are the C02
p roj ect i ons , as they are usual ly based on as sump t ions of l ine ar increase o r
exponent ial growth r e l a t ive t o deve lopment in recent years .
Recently , calculat ions have b e en app l i e d to proj ect the concentrat ion of
e ach g a s speci e s . The fo l lowing data have b een us ed :
- 1 9 8 0 atmospheric concentrations and recent trend data ,
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The r e sulting e s t imates for the year 2 0 3 0 are pres ented in Tab le 4 . It
appears that by 2 0 3 0 atmospher ic CFC ' s may increase by a factor o f 10 , the
chlorocarbons by a factor of 3 and the ni trogen compounds and hydrocarbons
by 2 0 % and 6 0 % , re spect ively . Thes e e s t imate s were o f cour s e made wi thout
tak ing into account the e ffects of pos s ib l e counte rmeasures to r educe
emi s s i ons .
The typ ical approach to under s tanding the re lat ionship b e tween a tmo sphe ric
C02 and temperature has been the deve lopment of increas ingly comp l ex mode ls
o f the geophys ical condi t ions that produce global cl imate . S everal typ e s of
mathemat ical mode l s have been deve loped d iffer ing in comprehens ivenes s w i th
re gard to tre atment of the cl imate sys tem components . Individual mode l s can
be b roadly clas s i f i e d as e i ther thermodynamic ( EBM ' s , e nergy balance , and
RCM ' s , radiat ive - convect ive mode l s , b o th accentuat ing the predict i on of
temperature ) or hydrodynamic (predicting b o th the t emperature and the mo t ion
fie l ds , and the i r mutual interact ions ) models . The l as t catego ry include s
the now w i de ly favoured " three d imens ional " Gene ral C i rcula t i on Mode l s
( GCM ' s ) . A n e w mode l hierarchy i s formed b y coup l ing a tmo spher ic GCM ' s w i th
di fferent ocean and s e a ice mode l s .
The s tandard r e ference value for compar ing alternative mode l s i s �T ( the
globally ave rage d temperature incre a s e due to doubled C02 ) . The ra� ge of
sur face warming s imulated by the group s EBM ' s and RCM ' s for doub l e d C02 i s
in remarkab l e agreement , i . e . 1 . 3 - 3 . 3°C . In compar ing r e sul ts ob tained by
EBM ' s the h i gh and low value s are usual ly excluded as the devi at ion i s
ascr ibe d t o the us e o f mode l s that r e quire an energy balance for the e ar th ' s
surface , rather than for the ent ire earth - atmosphere cl imate sys tem . The
main proponent o f the surface energy balance mode l i s S . I ds o o f the US
Water Cons ervati on laboratory . On the bas i s o f emp ir ical obs e rvat ions of
cl imatic change in Arizona and me asurements o f s o lar radiat ion , he concluded
that �T is 0 . 2 5°C , i . e . an order of magni tude le s s than that p r edicted by
the o th � r mode l s . Thi s controversy wi thin the mode l l ing commun i ty i s
fundamental and wil l cont inue .
The r ange o f s urface warming s imulated by the GCM ' s i s s omewhat l arger than
that o f the purely thermodynamic mode l s , name ly 1 . 3 - 3 . 9°C . For thi s
comp ar i s on calcul ations base d on s e a surface temperature/sea i ce s imulat ions
were excluded from cons i de rat ion , as the s e show a calculated p re s ent
temperature l ower than the p r e sently obs e rved temperature .
None of the above ment ione d computa t i ons take the trace gas e ffects into
account . The only , very recent , RCM s imulat ion emp l oy ing the proj ected
increas e s of all gre enhous e gas es r e fers to the p e r iod up to the ye ar 2 0 3 0 ,
the year character i s e d by a e s t imated C02 concentration o f about 4 5 0 ppm . In
that s tudy the r e l a t ive importance of about 3 0 gas e s , i ncluding C02 is taken
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Howeve r , the warming i s not the ent ire s tory ; all GCM ' s show an inc rease in
the intens i ty o f the global hydrological cycle . If the p lane t i s warmer more
mo i s ture w i l l evaporate from the oceans , resul ting in a increa s e of the
atmospher ic water concentrati on . The water vapour w i l l a l s o act as a
greenhous e gas . In add i t i on , cloud cover might change , as we l l a s s e a i c e
and snow cover , al l produc ing e i ther an ampl i ficat ion o r a reduct i on o f the
o r i ginal e ffec t s ( p o s i t ive or negative " fe e dbacks " ) . Al though the proce s s o f
C02 - induce d warming i s reas onably we l l unders tood and s ome o f th� gro s s
fea ture s o f the l ikely cl imatic change are reas onab ly we l l e s tab l ished
qual i ta t ive ly , the l ikely regional e ffects canno t be mode l l e d w i th great
confi dence at the p r e s ent t ime . The impac t o f the exp e c t e d cl ima t i c change
predicted by the s e mode l s would be l arge at a doub l e d atmospher i c C02
conc entration , even large r than any s ince the end of the last ice age about
12 , 0 0 0 years ago ( s e e also Appendix 8 ) :
- p re c ip i tab l e water content o f the atmosphere would increase by 5 - 1 5 % ,
the pre c ip i tat i on rate be ing increas ed part icularly at h i ghe r l a t i tude s o f
b o th hemi sphere s ,
- s e a - i c e cover o f the Arc t i c would be r e duced to a s e asonal i ce cove r ,
snow cover would change dependent on l a t i tude , though extent i s d i fficul t
t o predic t ,
- ice - cap mas s balance change : a warming o f 3°C would induc e a 6 0 - 7 0 em r i s e
o f the global s e a leve l , about hal f o f whi ch would b e due to ab lat ion o f
the Greenl and and Antar c t i c land ice , the re s t to the rmal expans i on of the
o c e an ; a po s s ib l e sub s e quent dis integration of the We s t Antarc t i c I c e
She e t would re sul t i n a worldw ide r i s e i n s e a leve l o f S - 6 m ,
- r i s ing s e a surface temperature would be highly r e g i onal , and
- r e duc e d evapo - trans p i rat ion o f plants would make more water avai l ab le as
runo ff and would tend to o ffs e t the e ffects o f any C02 - induced r e duc tions
in pre c ip i tat ion o r enhance the e ffec t s of precip i tat ion increas e s .
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The increase in greenhous e gas concentrat ions from pre - indus t r i al to the
p r e s ent values m i ght have caus ed a s ignificant p e r turb a t i on o f the radia t ive
heat ing of the cl imate sys tem , r e sul t ing in a warming of the global sur face
and l owe r atmosphe re . The induced warming due to the incr e as e o f the C02
concentration has b e en comput e d to be 0 . 8°C in recent RCM ' s and to be twice
as l ar ge in a recent GCM taking into account the incr e as e o f the
concentration o f al l ( known ) greenhouse gase s .
O ther scient i s ts argue that the mode l s overe s t imate the t emperature increase
due to the incre as e o f the greenhous e gas e s . In the i r view mode l l e r s have s o
far conce rned thems e lve s ma inly w i th two cl imat ic feedback p roce s s e s , which
are cla imed to amp l i fy any C02 warm ing : the s o - ca l l e d i ce - albedo fee dback
and the water vapour fe edback . The cr i t ics argue that thes e two fe edback
proce s s e s are currently ove re s t imated whi l e o thers are comp l e te ly negl e c ted ,
unde re s t imated or overe s t imated ( for examp l e , the carbon diox i de - ocean
circulation - upwe l l ing feedback , the C02 - ocean s tab i l i ty - winte r down we l l ing
fee dback , the C02 - Arctic s e a ice -Ar t i e b i omas s feedb ack , the C02 - r a infall
di s tr ibution - trop ical b i omas s fee dback , the permafros t - me thane release
fee dback , and the C02 - we ather ing o f s il icate mine rals feedback ) .
Ove re s t imat ion o f the ice - alb e do fee dback i s particula r ly r e l evant .
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4 . IMPLI CATIONS
Al though the greenhous e e ffec t has been unde tec tab l e up t i l l now , the
atmospher i c c oncentrat ions of the greenhous e gas e s are s teadi ly increas ing .
Whe the r o r no t thi s wil l r esul t in a s i gnificant global warming and i f s o ,
when i t w i l l o ccur , i s s ti l l a mat te r o f debate . Howeve r , w i thout the dire c t
need o f a c l e ar s ignal i t i s use ful t o g ive c ons i de rati on t o measures to
c ounte rac t the l ikely e ffec t s . Potent ial e ffec t s are i dent i fied b e l ow
as suming a future greenhous e e ffec t irrespect ive o f unce r t a int i e s
as s o c i ated w i th t iming and s ever i ty o f the impac t .
I . Oceans
4 . Temp e rate de crease and h i gh Poleward spe c i e s shifts due to shi fts in
l a t i tude increase in ne t s a l i n i ty patte rns .
p r e c ip i ta t i on and runo ff
- 24 -
I I . Agr i culture
Of the 2 0 foo d crop s , that fee d the world , 16 have a C 3 pho tosynthe t i c
p athway . The only excep t i ons are corn , s o r ghum , m i l l e t and sugarcane ,
whi ch have a C4 p athway ( se e al s o chap ter 2 . 3 . 2 . ) . O f the world ' s 1 8 mo s t
noxi ous weeds , 1 4 have the C 4 pathway .
1 . Inc r e as ing atmo spher i c Increas ing produc t iv i ty , p rovid ing o ther
C02 fac tors affe c t ing p l ant growth ( l i ght ,
water , temperature , nut r i ent s ) are no t
adve r s e ly affe c ted ; i ncreas e in y i e l d and
harve s t index , improved qual i ty and
accelerated matur i ty .
Increase in water use e f f i c i ency and a
dec r e as e in water requirement s , i.e. a
greater s tab i l i ty o f p roduc tion and l e s s
crop failure s .
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The change s in c l imate , be ing cons idered here , are at an unaccus tomed
d i s tance in t ime for future p lanning , even beyond the l i fe t ime of mo s t o f
the pre s ent dec i s ion make rs but no t beyond int imate ( fam i l y ) a s s o c i at i on .
The changes may be the greate s t in rec orded h i s tory . They c ould alter the
environment in such a way that hab i tab i l i ty would be come mo re sui tab l e in
the one area and l e s s sui tab l e in the o ther area . Adap tat i on , migrat i on and
replacement c ould be called for . All o f thes e ac t ions w i l l be c o s tly and
unc e r t a in , but c ould be made acceptable . Of cours e , a l l changes w i l l be s l ow
and gradual and , therefore , adap tation and rep lacement , even m i gration , ne e d
no t t o be no t i ce ab l e agains t the normal trends . Rec o gn i t i on o f any impac ts
may b e e arly enough for man to be ab le to ant ic ipate and to adap t in t ime .
The adap tat ion o f the e c o sys tems on e ar th to change s in c l imate , howeve r ,
w i l l b e s l ow . I t woul d be unreal i s t i c to exp e c t adaptat i on to o ccur within a
few dec ade s . The r e fore , change s in e c o sys tem s tab i l i ty , di s turbance o f
e c o sys tem s truc ture and func t i on and even local d i s appearance o f spec i f i c
e c o sys tems o r hab i tat de s truc t i on coul d o c cur . Thi s w i l l be fo l l owe d by an
almo s t unpredic tab le , c omp l ex pro c e s s of adaptat ion o f the e c o sys tems to the
changed c ondi t i ons to reach a new s tab le s i tuat ion , the s o - c a l l e d c l imax
e co sys t em . Qui te c le arly , th i s proc e s s of adap tation woul d b e c ome even more
c omp l ex when it is inte rrupted more frequently or even cont inuous ly , s uch as
through p e rmanently changing c l imati c c ondi t ions . A new s tab le s i tua t i on c an
only b e exp e c t e d to occur after a global s e t t l ing o f the change in c l ima te .
The t ime i t then wi l l take to reach a new s tab le s i tuat i on depends largely
on the s e r i ousne s s o f the d i s turbance o f the e c o sys tems and , thus , on the
e ffec t ivene s s o f the programme s to prote c t the e arth ' s c l imate agains t
change .
Changing temperature and pre c ip i tation are the key e lements in c l imat i c
change . The main e ffects w i l l be o n the s e a leve l and natural e c o sys tems .
S oc i o - e conomic impl ications w i l l be re lated to agr iculture , f i she r ie s ,
p e s ts , wate r supply , e tc . Whi l e the greenhous e e ffec t i s a global
phenomenon , the c ons equenc e s and many o f the s o c i o - e c onomic imp l i cations
w i l l be regional and local wi th large temporal and spatial var i a t i ons . The
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1 . R i s e in s e a leve l
- More than 3 0 % o f the world ' s populat i on l ive w i thin a 5 0 - k i l ome tre are a
adj o ining o c e ans and s eas , s ome even b e l ow s e a l eve l . Large l ow - lying
areas c ould be inundated ( e . g . Banglade sh ) and migh t have to be
abandoned or protected e ffec t ive ly .
- Shall ow s eas , l agoons , bays and e s tuar i e s charac ter i s e d by extens ive
t i dal flats c ould b e c ome p ermanently inundated . Lo s s of the s e hab i tats
would mean a l o s s of extremely h i ghly product ive and dive r s e areas ,
whi ch s e rve as a nurs ery for j uven i l e s o f al l k inds o f animal spe c i e s
and wh ich a r e r i ch in food for f i sh . Effe c t s on natural r e s ource s -
dependent on the s e sys tems , m i ght there fore be dramatic ( e . g . she l l fi sh
cul ture and f i shing , s eawee d harve s t ing , s ome c ommerc i al ly important
f i sh ) .
There might be a shift in di s tr ibut ion o f ameni t i e s , and as a
c ons e quence l ocal l o s s o f income , though at o ther p l ac e s new s ourc e s o f
revenue might emerge .
2 . R i s e in s e a t emperature
Survival and growth o f mar ine spe c ie s may increas e in general , though
no t in s trat i fied s ub trop i cal water s . Howeve r , shifts in r ange s and
migrat ion patterns could resul t in local l o s s e s of food s ourc e s and
revenue s , and c ould r e quire operat ion in o ther ( more d i s tant ) f i shing
grounds .
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working arrangements .
5 . Area of fore s t
W i th a growth rate o f the world p opulation o f 1 . 5 % per year the human
are a inc reas e s s lowly , p r e s ent ly ma inly at the expense o f gras s l and and
agr icul tural l and . Howeve r , decreas ing y i e l ds in c omb inat ion w i th an
inc re as ing human popula t i on may require an extens ion o f arab l e l and .
Thi s would c e r tainly have impl i c a t i ons for the trop ical ( and temperate )
fore s ts .
Bas e d on the mo s t pes s imis t ic predi c t i ons a d i s appearance o f fore s t s i s
exp e c t e d dur ing the f i r s t hal f o f the 2 1 s t century , shoul d human
populat ion growth c ont inue inde fini t e ly . S uch a decrease in area o f
fore s t me ans a s i gn i f i c ant decrease o f c arbon f ixed in the te rres tr i al
b i o sphere res ervo ir and , consequently , an increas e of a tmo sphe re C02
- The natural trans i t ion l ine b e tween dec iduous and needle - leafed t r e e s
and the upper tree - l ine w i l l s h i f t to h i gher l a t i tude s and h i gher
e l evat ions . Thus the to tal area sui tab l e for growth of dec i duous t re e s
(ma inly temperate and boreal fore s ts ) wi ll inc r e ase .
6 . Changing a ir temperature
- Loc al t emp erature change may nece s s itate l ocal adap tat ion of the
bui l d ings in whi ch p e op l e l ive and work , techno l o g i e s for heat ing or
c o o l ing , energy s ourc e s for heat ing and c o o l ing , new food prep ara t ion
te chno l o g i e s , new cul t ivat i on technique s , e tc . A l l s uch adap tat i ons are
c o s tly and s ome would dras t ically change the way peop l e l ive and wo rk .
7 . Water supp ly
- The p r o sp e c t s for water supply ( s ource s , us e s , transpor t , s torage and
c ons e rvation) are evi dently o f importance . Rainfal l , s nowfal l , and
evaporat ion are among the key e l ements in c l imate change . Level o f
groundwater o r ne ed o f i rr igat i on or drainage would be main
de term inants of whe ther increased r a in and s now would b e wel c ome and
how c o s tly r e duce d prec ip i tation would be .
- Local deve lopment of new s ource s of freshwater would be require d . Water
s torage and transpor t , and inh ib i t i on o f evaporat ion shoul d rece ive
c ont inued attention .
C o al and the c omb ined fuels o f o il and gas c ontr ibute roughly equal amounts
o f C02 ( s e e Tab l e 7 ) . B e c aus e natural gas produce s l e s s C02 per uni t of
energy , a swing from coal t owards gas would reduce the C02 emi s s i on . Th i s
argument h a s been us e d i n individual cho i c e s o f fue l s f o r new p ower
s ta t i ons , but s ince almo s t 90% o f the world ' s recoverab l e coal is l ocated in
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An overall r e duc t ion in fos s i l fuel use would o f c our s e r e duce C02
produc t i on and could be achieved by c ons traint on en�rgy c onsump t i on , by
imp roved the rmal e ffic iency and by replac ing fos s il fuel s w i th e . g . nuc l e ar
p owe r . But such a cour s e o f ac t i on would imply a maj or shift in worl d energy
supp ly and us e .
The energy indus try wi l l c le arly need to work out the part i t should p lay in
the deve lopment of p o l i c i e s and programme s to t ackle the who l e p rob lem . It
w i l l no t b e appropr iate t o take the main burden , for the i s sue s are one s that
ul t imat e ly only governments can t ackle , and use r s have an important role .
But i t has very s trong intere s t s at s take and much exp e r t i s e to c ontr ibute ,
par t i cularly on ene rgy supp ly and usage . I t a l s o has i ts own r eputat ion to
c ons i de r , there be ing much po tential for pub l i c anxi e ty and p r e s sure group
a c t iv i ty .
I ,
For the purp o s e s o f thi s d i s cus s ion , i t i s as sumed that the cons e quence o f
increas ing l eve l s of carbon dioxide a r e as already s e t out , name ly , an
increase in a i r t emperature , change s in weather p a t t e rns , a r i s e in s e a
l eve l o f l e s s than 1 me tre and s ome small increas e s in agr icul tural y i e lds .
- 29 -
Fo s s i l fue l s whi ch are marke ted and us e d by the Group account for the
p r o duct ion o f 4 % o f the C02 emi tted wor l dwide from c ombus t ion . Of the s e
emi s s ions , 8 0 % c ome s from Group o i l , 1 2 % from G roup gas and 8 % from Group
c oal ( se e Tab l e s 7 and 8 ) .
The s e s ame change s , by alter ing the patte rns o f agr i cul ture c ould alter up
o r down the demand for our agr i cul tural produc ts b o th chemical s and s e e ds ,
though i t i s d i ff i cul t to fore cas t the e ffec t o f the b i o t e chno l o gical
revo lut ion on thi s are a - i t might swamp any e ffec t o f increas ing c arbon
d i o x i de .
CONFIDENTIAL
- 30 -
From the s e group s c ame a number o f actions and s trate gi e s whi ch are b e l i eved
mo s t appropr iate . Current ( 1 9 8 6 ) o f f i c ial , government a t t i tude mainly f i t
the f i r s t appro ach , though there i s a tendency to c ar ry out analy s e s that
would eventually lead to d i s cus s ion of r emedial measure s ( see also
App endix 3 ) .
First group
- Bas i c r e s e arch and monitoring :
o mon i tor ing o f caus al fac tor s :
emi s s ion o f greenhouse gas e s
a tmospher i c c oncentration o f the s e gas e s
s o lar var iations
vo l c anic aero s o l
change s in a r e a o f fore s t
o c l imat i c e ffects :
temperature
r ad i a t i on fluxe s
pre c ip i tab l e water c ontent
c l oud c over
s e a l eve l
s e a temp e rature
s now and s e a - ice c over ( remo te s ens ing )
- App l i e d r e s e arch and devel opment :
o agr i cul ture :
r espons e s o f e c o sys tems
c rop y i e lds
phys io logy and growth
o water r e s ourc e s
S e c ond group
Analys i s o f e conomic and s o c i al c o s ts as s o c i ated w i th c l imate change
- Reduct ion of r e le as e s of greenhous e gas e s o ther than C02
- Management o f b i o ta :
o free z ing rate o f de fore s ta t i on
o free z ing land rec l amation
o fre e z ing r angeland burning
o p romo t i on o f re - jaffores tat ion
C ONFIDENTIAL
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Thi r d group
- Adap tation to c l imat i c change s through :
o change s in environmental contro l
o migra t i on
Adap tat ion to s e a leve l r i s e through :
o m i gra t i on
o c ons truc t ion of (highe r ) dikes
Adap tation to e ffec t s on agricul ture through :
o m i gration
o change o f crop s
o mod i f i c a t i on o f var i e t i e s
o al terat i on o f husbandry
I f the e nvironmental prob l em deve lops as s ome predic t , then the impact would
be suffic i ently l arge as to require a pol i cy re spons e . Re - d i re c t i on o f
r e s e arch emphas i s towards analys i s o f energy and p o l i cy op t i ons w i l l then
require p a r t i cular a t tent i on .
R e fe r ence s us e d in thi s s e c ti on : 8 , 10 , 14 , 1 9 , 3 0 , 3 8 , 5 1 , 6 6 , 6 9 .
I'
,,
I'
CONFIDENTIAL
i :1
- 32 -
6 . REFERENCES
1. Ausub e l , J . H . ; Nordhaus , W . D .
A review o f e s t imates o f future c arbon dioxide emis s i ons .
In : Nat ional Re s e arch Counc i l , Changing C l imate , Report o f the Carbon
ii dioxide As s e s sment C omm i t tee . Nat ional Academy Pres s , Washington , D . C .
pp 1 5 3 - 1 8 5 , 1 9 8 3 .
2. Baxende l l , P .
The changing energy balance in As i a Pac i fi c .
Addr e s s to the P etroPac i fi c ' 84 C ongr e s s , Me lbourne , Aus tral i a , 8 pp . ,
1 9 84 .
3. Brewe r , P . G .
Carbon dioxide and the o c e ans .
In : Nat ional Re s e arch Counc i l , Changing C l imate , Rep o r t o f the C arbon
D i oxi de As s e s sment Comm i t te e . Nat ional Academy Pre s s , Washington , D . C .
pp 1 8 8 - 2 1 5 , 1 9 8 2 .
5. Brown , S . ; Lugo , A . E .
B i omas s o f t rop ical fore s ts : a new e s t imate based on fores t vo lume s .
S c i enc e 1 2 3 : 1 2 9 0 - 1 2 9 3 , 1 9 84 .
6. Bryan , K .
The role o f the o c e an in the trans i ent c l imate respons e to increas ing
atmosphe r i c C02 .
I n : Proc . J o int Oceanographic As s emb ly 1 9 8 2 , Gen . Symp . Hal i fax ,
pp 4 3 - 46 , 1 9 8 3 .
8. Comp ton , W . D .
Alternate fue l s - a technology that i s ready .
UP Front/Agr i cul tural Engineering 6 6 : 12 - 13 , 1 9 8 5 .
9. C r ane , A . J .
Pos s ib l e e ffec t s o f r 1 s 1ng C02 on c l imate .
P l ant C e l l Environ . 8 : 3 7 1 - 3 7 9 , 1 9 8 5 .
1 0 . Dahlman , R . C . ; S tr a in , B . R . ; Rogers , H . H .
Res e arch on the respons e o f vegetat i on t o e l evated a tmo spher i c c arbon
dioxide .
J . Env iron . Qual . 14 : 1 - 8 , 1 9 8 5 .
- 33 -
1 2 . E l 1 s ae s s e r , H . W .
The c l imat i c e ffec t o f C02 : a d i fferent view .
Atmo spher i c Environment 1 8 : 4 3 1 - 434 , 1 9 84 .
1 3 . Fr i t t s , H . C . ; Lough , J . M .
An e s t imate o f average annual temperature var i a t i ons for Nor th Ame r ica ,
1 6 0 2 to 1 9 6 1 .
C l imat i c Change 7 : 2 0 3 - 2 24 , 1 9 8 5 .
14 . G o l anty , E .
The global exp e r iment . Carbon d i oxide and ocean temp erature .
O c e ans 1 7 : 6 6 - 6 9 , 1 9 84 .
1 6 . Hame e d , S . ; Ce s s , R . D . Ho gan , J . S .
Re spons e o f the global c l imate to change s in atmo spheric chemical
c omp o s i t i on due to fo s s i l fuel burning .
J . Ge ophys . Re s . 8 5 : 7 5 3 7 - 7 545 , 1 9 8 0 .
2 0 . H i l eman , B .
The greenhous e effe c t .
Environ . S c i . Techno l . 1 6 : 9 0A - 9 3A , 1 9 8 2 .
2 1 . H i l eman , B .
Rec ent reports on the greenhous e e ffec t - what are s ome d i fferenc e s
b e tween the EPA and NRC s tudi e s ?
Envi ron . S c i . Techno l . 1 8 : 45A - 46A , 1 9 8 4 .
2 3 . Hoffe r t , M . I . ; Callegar i , A . J . ; Hs i ek , C . T .
The r o l e o f deep s e a heat s to rage in the s e cular r e spons e to c l imat i c
forc ing .
J . Geophys . Res . 8 5 : 6 6 6 7 - 6 6 7 9 , 1 9 8 0 .
CONFIDENTIAL
- 34 -
2 5 . Hugi l l , J . A .
The c arbon d i oxide greenhouse e ffect .
KSLA , report AMGR . 8 0 . 10 5 , 9 pp , 1 9 8 0 .
2 6 . I chimur a , S .
The impacts o f c l imati c change on human s o c i e ty .
In : C arbon di oxide Effe c t s Res e arch and As s e s sment Pro gram . Workshop on
Environmental and S o c i e tal Cons e quence s of a Pos s ib l e C02 I nduce d
C l imat e Change . U . S . - DOE , Conf - 7 9 04143 , p p 442 - 46 2 , 1 9 8 0 .
2 7 . I ds o , S . B .
Temp e r a ture l im i tation by evaporat ion in hot c l imat e s and the gre enhous e
e ffec t s o f water vapour and carbon dioxide .
Agr i c . Me tero l . 2 7 : 1 0 5 - 10 9 , 1 9 8 2 .
2 8 . I ds o , S . B .
The s earch for global C02 e c t . " Greenhous e E ffe c ts " .
Env iron . C ons e rvat i on 1 2 : 2 9 - 3 5 , 1 9 8 5 .
2 9 . I ds o , S . B . ; Braz e l , A . J .
R i s ing atmo spher ic c arbon dioxide c oncentrat ions may increas e
s treamflow .
Nature 3 1 2 : 5 1 - 5 3 , 1 9 84 .
3 0 . J aske , R . T .
Carbon dioxide - the p r emier environmental chal l enge o f our t ime .
Environ . Progre s s 2 : 14 5 - 148 , 1 9 8 3 .
3 1 . Ke l logg , W . W .
Feedback mechani sms in the c l imate sys tem affe c t ing future l eve l s o f
c arbon dioxide .
J . G eophys . Re s . 8 8 : 1 2 6 3 - 1 2 6 9 , 1 9 8 3 .
3 3 . Ker r , R . A .
Doub l ing o f a tmospher i c me thane supp o r te d .
S c ienc e 2 2 6 : 9 5 4 - 9 5 5 , 1 9 84 .
3 4 . King , D . A .
E s t imating the direct effe c t o f C02 on soyb e an y i e l d .
J . Environ . Mngt 2 0 : 5 1 - 6 2 , 1 9 8 5 .
CONFIDENTIAL
- 35 -
3 5 . Kondratyev , K . Ya . ; Bunakova , A . M .
Fac tors o f the greenhous e e ffe c t o f the atmosphere and the i r influence
on c l imate .
In : W i l l iams , J . ( e d . ) , Carbon Diox i de , C l imate and S o c i e ty . P e rgamon
Pre s s , Oxford , pp 2 0 1 - 2 0 7 , 1 9 7 8 .
3 6 . Kratz , G .
Mode l l ing the global c arbon cycle .
In : Hutz inge r , 0 . ( ed . ) , The Handbook o f Environmental Chemis try ,
Vo l . 1 , Part D . Spr inger Ver l ag , Ber l in , pp 2 9 - 8 1 , 1 9 8 5 .
3 8 . Laurmann , J . A .
The global greenhous e warming p rob l em : s e t t ing the p r i o r i t ie s .
C l imat ic Change 7 : 2 6 1 - 2 6 5 , 1 9 8 5 .
40 . Manabe , S . ; S touffe r , R . J .
S ens i t ivi ty o f a global c l imate mo de l to an increas e o f C02
concentration in the atmo sphere .
J . Geophys . Re s . 8 5 : 5 5 2 9 - 5 5 5 4 , 1 9 8 0 .
4 1 . Maugh , T . H .
What i s the r isk from chloro fluo rocarbons ?
S c ience 2 2 3 : 1 0 5 1 - 1 0 5 2 , 19 8 4 .
4 3 . N i c o l i , M . P . V i s cont i , G .
Impac t o f c oup l e d p e r turbations o f a tmosphe r i c trace gase s on e ar th ' s
c l imate and o z one .
Pageoph . 1 2 0 : 6 2 6 - 641 , 1 9 8 2 .
44 . P ap aud , A . ; Po i s s on , A .
Le cyc le du c arbone e t s a p e r turbation p ar l e s ac t ivi te s humaine s : un
ape r cu du prob l eme .
O c e anologica Acta 8 : 1 3 3 - 14 5 , 1 9 8 5 .
4 5 . P earman , G . I . ; Hys on , P .
Ac t ivi t i e s o f the global b i o sphere as r e flected in atmo spher i c C02
r e c o r ds .
J . G e ophys . Res . 8 5 : 44 6 8 - 44 7 4 , 1 9 8 0 .
CONFIDENTIAL
- 36 -
46 . Ramanathan , V .
Greenhous e e ffec t due to chloro fluorocarbons : c l imati c imp l i cat ions .
S c i ence , 1 9 0 , 50 - 5 2 , 1 9 7 5 .
4 8 . Reve ll e , R .
Carbon d ioxi de and wor l d c l imate
S c i . Amer . 247 : 3 3 - 41 , 1 9 8 2 .
SO . S che l l ing , T . C .
C l imat i c change : imp l icat ions for we l fare and p o l icy .
I n : Natural Re s earch Counc i l , Changing C l imate , Rep o r t o f the Carb on
Dioxide As s e s sment Comm i t te e . Nat i onal Academy Pre s s , Washington , D . C .
pp 449 - 48 2 , 1 9 8 3 .
5 1 . S chell ing , T . C .
C l imat i c change : imp l ications for we l fare and p o l i cy .
Amb io 1 3 : 2 00 - 2 0 1 , 1 9 8 4 .
5 2 . I chles inge r , M . E .
C l imate mode l s imulations of C02 - induce d c l imat i c change .
Adv . Geophys i c s 2 6 : 141 - 2 3 5 , 1 9 8 4 .
5 3 . S emtne r , A . J .
On mode l l ing the s e asonal thermo dynamic cycl e o f s e a i c e in s tudi e s of
c l imatic change .
C l imat i c Change 6 : 2 7 - 3 7 , 1 9 8 4 .
5 5 . Shugart , H . H . ; Emanue l , W . R .
C arbon dioxide increas e : the imp l ications at the e c o sys tem l eve l .
P l ant C e l l Environ . 8 : 3 8 1 - 3 8 6 , 1 9 8 5 .
5 6 . S m i th , S . V .
Phys ical , chem i c al and b io logical character i s t i c s o f C02 gas flux acr o s s
the a i r - water interface .
P l ant , C e l l Environ . 8 : 3 8 7 - 39 8 , 1 9 8 5 .
- 37 -
5 8 . S tewar t , T . R . ; Glantz , M . H .
Exp e r t j udgment and c l imate forecas t ing : a me thodo l o gical c r i t i que o f
" c l imate change to the y e a r 2 0 00 " .
C l imat ic Change 7 : 1 5 9 - 1 8 3 , 1 9 8 5 .
5 9 . Tyndal l , J .
On the ab s o rp t i on and radiat ion of heat by gase s and vapours , and on the
phys i c al c onnec ti on of radiat ion , abs o rp t ion , and c onduc ti on .
Phi l o s oph . Mag . S e r . 4 : 1 6 9 - 1 9 4 and 2 7 3 - 2 8 5 , 18 6 1 .
6 2 . Washington , W . M . ; Meehl , G . A .
S e as onal cyc l e exper iment on the c l imate s ens i t iv i ty due to a doubl ing
of C02 with an atmo spher i c general c i r cul ation mode l c oup l e d to a s imp le
m ixe d - l aye r o c e an mode l .
J . Geophys . Re s . 8 9 : 947 5 - 9 5 0 3 , 1 9 8 4 .
64 . Wi gley , T . M . L .
Carb on dioxide , trace gas e s and global warming .
C l imate Monitor 1 3 : 1 3 3 - 146 , 1 9 8 4 .
6 5 . Wigley , T . M . L . ; Jones , P . D .
I nfluenc e s o f p re c ip i tation changes and direct C02 e ffe c ts on
s tr e amflow .
Nature 3 14 : 14 9 - 1 5 2 , 1 9 8 5 .
6 6 . W i l l i ams , R . H .
Po tent i al r o l e s for b ioenergy in an energy - e ffi c i ent wor l d .
Amb i o 14 : 2 0 1 - 2 0 9 , 1 9 8 5 .
6 7 . W i t twe r , A . J .
C arbon dioxide leve l s in the b iosphere : e ffects on p l ant produc t ivity .
CRC G r i t . Rev . Pl . S c i . 2 : 1 7 1 - 1 9 8 , 1 9 8 5 .
6 8 . Woodwe ll , G . M .
B i o t ic e ffec t s on the conc entration o f a tmospher i c c arbon diox i de : a .
r eview and proj e c t ion .
In : Natural Re s e arch Counc i l , Chang ing Cl imate , Report o f the C arbon
D ioxide As s e s sment Comm i t tee . National Academy Pre s s , Washington , D . C .
pp . 2 1 6 - 24 1 , 1 9 8 3 .
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- 39 -
CONFIDENTIAL
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(1 -Yl l
�YI
'I I Atmosphere
� YI
I
Ear t h
F igure 1
The s un ' s energy p a s s e s thr ough the a tmosphere , warms the ear t h ' s sur face ,
and is t hen r e r a d i a t e d int o space a t longer , infrared wavelengt hs .
The ba lance of incoming and out going r a d i a t i on d e t e rmines the p l anet ' s
t empera t ure . S ome a tmospheric gases abs or b some of t he out go ing inf rared
( e . g . C02 in a band of 1 4 - 1 6 fJm ) , t rapp ing heat in a "greenhou s e e f f e c t " .
ob
1 900
I I I I
1 920
I I t I
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COz emi s s i ons derived from l ong-range proj e c t ions and h i s t or ic produc t ion from foss i l f ue l s . H
0
Da t a un t i l 1 980 are ac t ua l measureme n t s ; a f t e r 1 9 80 mode l - c a l c u l a te d proj e c t ions �
( source : Carbon D iox ide As s e s smen t Comm i t t e e , Chang ing C l ima t e . Nat ional Academy P r e s s , 1-i
H
Washin g t on , DC , 1 983 ) . �
CONFIDENTIAL
- 42 -
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- 43 -
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- 44 -
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N . B . The two l ines repre sent the mod e l s imulat ions a t the a l t it udes
c or r e spon ding with 7 00 and 900 mba r .
ii
Fi g u r e 6
ATM O S P H E R E 700
!l o i l c a rbon 2000
LI T H O S P H E R E C01'7'1hU:!r/10n 5 . 3 OCEAN
I n o rg a n i c C 4.8 x 1 OE7 biota 1 7
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CONFIDENTIAL
- 46 -
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F i gure 7
- 47 -
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F igure 8
Inc rease in a tmospher ic C02 c oncentrat ion over the next 1 5 0 years
assuming growth rate in emi s s ions of 4 , 2 and 0% per y e ar ( r ) f or
airborne frac t i ons (aU of 0 . 38 , 0 . 55 and 0 . 6 7 ( s ource : L i s s , P . S . ;
Crane , A . J . , Han-made Carbon Diox ide and C l imat ic Change : a Review
of S c ient i f ic P r ob l ems . Geobooks , Norwich , 1 9 83 ) .
:3 1
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Fa l l in g energy in tens ity in the USA ( s ourc e : Gr oup P l ann ing Scenar ios ) .
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CONFIDENTIAL
- 49 -
¥ 2.5 . ...,.
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CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE 1 0EGREES CELS I U S ! CHANGE I N PRECIPITATION 1PEACENi1
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- 51 -
Northern
latitudes
(90° N ·23 .ft N )
-0.2
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Fi gure 1 2
Re c ons t ruc t i on of surfa ce-a i r - t empera ture anoma l i e s f or var ious l a t i t ude
ba nds ( s our c e : Hansen , J . e t a l . , C l ima t e imp a c t o f increas ing a tmosphe r ic
carbon d iox ide . S c ience 2 1 3 : 9 5 7 - 9 6 6 , 1 98 1 ) .
CONFIDENTIA
- 52 -
6
Tab l e 1 . C02 emi s s i ons per year by fue l type ( 10 tonne s C/year )
( s ourc e : J aske , R . T . , Carbon dioxide - the p remie r environmental
chal lenge o f our t ime . Environ . Progr e s s 2 : 14 5 - 14 8 , 1 9 8 3 )
% i ncrease
1 9 50 1975 1980
1950 - 75 1975 - 80
- 53 -
Curbon diolidu co, N.A 0 z JJ9 x a u• " so x t o • bad o�t a 2.4% int:reaso ower the neal 50 yc11r1
Nii iOIJCU N 10 N,A . S(liV) 120 100 J7S JSO 4 SO Combuslion und fulilizcr sources
t:OIUflOUUdll Ni l , N.A ·r 001 <I <I Gun:enlraliun nriublc and poo•·ly daar��etcri�
(NO ·I NU1) N,A 'f(OI I) 0 00 1 o os o os o os 0. 1 Com:enln1tiun variable and poorly char��t:lerizcd
SuUur CS( ) N,A 110.01 .,., 1(1, O S2 O. S2 Source• amd Minh lar1cly unknown
t:ompoemd» cs, N.A 1' 1('1) < O OOS < O OOS Sourca uudaarKierizcd
so, A( 't) 'f(OI I) 0.001 0 1 0. 1 0 1 0.1 Give•• I he lhorl lilceimc &he Jlobal presence of SO 1 i11 uucarlaaincd
I I ,S N 1'(01 1) 0.001 < O OS < 0 0S
fully Cf4 (F I 4) A I > SUO 0 07 0.14 0.1 0.1 1 Alwninu ... ind11111ry • major 10urt:e
ltudrieuatcd C,F• ( f l l6) A I > 500 0 004 0 02 0 01 ·· 0 04 A lu nainum industry a 11111jor 10urcc:
Sll\:dC!I sF. A I > SOO 0.001 0 00} 0.002 oos
( :1al01 unuoro CUI:,� ct,. l l) A S4UV).I 4UO 0001 0 06 0 04-0. 1 All t:bluroftuurO&:arbon• are uf eaclusiwc maa-nuade urilin. A nunabcr
t:at bomi cn , F, c•·u, S(UV) 1 10 0 28 I I 09-lS ul reiJulalory actions are pcnt.lina. The RaUurc ol rcaul lt l ion• and
{�t l (1a:' 1 U:12) A 11011) 20 0 06 0.9 0.4 - 1 .9 llu:ir dfct:livencllll would arcally llllct:l lhe arowlh or lhcse
('U ,f WI I) A S(UV) 6S 0 Ill 1.1 O. S - 2.0 dacmit:uls over l hc neal 50 years.
CI-' ,CI-' 1( 1 (1:- I I S) A S(lJV) )80 o oo.s 0 04 0.0 2 · O. l
f'l1f ,CCIF 1 (f l l 4t A S( U V) 1 110 OOIS 0. 1 4 0.06 0. 1
C(11 fCCII-"1 U: I I J) A S( U V) 90 O Ol S 0 17 0 011 0 )
Chloe ocarbotlll cu .o N(O) 1101 1) I.S 06 06 0.6 ·0.7 IN�ttintml n•&uraal t:hlori11c carrier uf ua:anic oriain \II
cu ,o, A T(OI I) 0.6 0 01 02 0 1 · 0. ) A f)()rular rc11clive bul t10IIIoaic solwcnl �
( 'I ICI, A '1"(01 1) 0.7 0 01 O OJ 0.02 · 0. 1 U»cd for manufu�;t urc ur Fl2 ; nuany ICQ)ndllrJ 110urc:cs alw eaisl
en. A S(UV) lS · � O il 0} 0.1 · 0.4 U��ed i11 11u.mufilt:lure of lluoroarbons; U11111J olhcr •a,rliulions •• well
CI I ,UCI I ,< l A l'(Oitt 0.4 0 01 0. 1 0 06 · 0. 1 A mujor t:hc:micul inlennaliule (IJiobul prodoct ion • 10 IH/yr); a)Ossibly l o • ic
c u .en, A 1'(01 1) 10 0 14 I.S () l 1.7 No111oaic, tarac:ly uea.:oa�lrollcd deare11sina wlwen1
c,un, A T(OII) 0.02 o oos 0 01 o oos 0 02 .,OIIIIibly loaic, dcdinina na•rlcll lact:IIUSC or aubslilulion IO Cl l ,CCI J
C,ll .. A '1"(01 1) O. S O.th 0 07 0 01 -0 2 l•o"ibly tolN;. enoderiiiC arowlh due IO lobslilulion IO ( :1 1 JCCI J
Drominulcd CI I , Or N '1"(01 1) 1.7 001 001 O.Ol 0 02 Mujor n alura l bromine carrier
unci ioclatcd Clh f , (l:no � ) A S(UV) 1 10 0 00 1 O.OOS 0 001 · 0 0 1 t'irc .:alin1Juid.cr
!�pedes Cl l , DrCI I 1 Br A T(O I I ) 0.4 0 002 0 002 0.00 1 -0 0l t.t.ajor au ,ol in c addilive for lead tcaa vcaaina ; alsiO u rumiallnl
Cl l , l N l"( IIV) 0.01 0 002 0 002 Eaclusivcly ur OU:IIIIic oriain
I I ydrocurbons, Cl l .. N 'flO I I) S ·· I O 1 6.SO 2140 I IISO-JJOO A &rend •howina incrcaK over lhc •••• 2 year• hus been idenlilic:t.l
CO, I I , C , 1 1. N '1'(01 1) 0. 1 0 11 01 O.ll l.l Pn:tlom i nan l l y of aulu eah11u�1 oriain
C,ll, A T(OI I) 0. 1 0 06 0. 1 0 06 0. 1 6 No trend haas been idt:lllitied lo dale
t·,u, N, '1(0 1 1) 0.0) o os o os O t)S 0. 1 No lrend has been idcnlilict.l lu d111c
co N.A '1 (0 1 1) O.J IJ() liS 90 - 160 No tn:nd hus been idcrui ticd to dale
II, N.A 1"(Sl.,OI I) 2 S60 760 S60 1 1 40
( ),wnc o. N 'I (UV, 0. 1 - 0. 1 •..(l)l l l. S % A 1m11ll l rend ar�..:ur• lo cai111 Lui dala •re insulrtt:icnl
fl'roposphcrM:) SI.,O)
Aklchydc11 I IC I I O N 'I '(O I I , U V) 0 001 0.2 02 Scamt.laarr prudtM.1s ol hydr.-:urbon uaidulion n
CI I 1CI IO N 'f(OI I,IJV) 0.001 0 02 0 02 1980 wncc:nt r a ui on estimuled f.-om theory
0
z
"2j
H
• N. tauhual ; A, anllu upua�cuic; 0, oceaanit:; S, llrulo:it•l.crc; IJ V, uluu viulcl Jthululy�is ; T. uopolittlu:rc ; 01 1, bydruayl radit:al n:muwu l ; I, iu nos1•hcr ic and ealremc UV and clct:lrun t:a t thuc t cmo¥:�1 ; t::'
s a .. soil sink .
.
fl hcsc t:UUt:enl l aliUIIII an: iniCifUIN IIVCIIIICII; fur t:hclllicUI»
lifet imes (0 00 1 0 ) rcan) vct l it:al lnulicnhl may ulsu he c.:nt:uuulerc:d.
�ilh lif.:liiiH:ll of 10 yean U1 k:J», si111ilit:i1Ul lulitutJiulll lllltlic:nlll Cllll be CIIMXIctJ itt tilt: lrupollflhc:rc ; fat( t·lacmit:als wilh CIII'CIUc ly shol"l �
H
I Va1 ic� h um 25 l 't t b v ul l in: �ur rut:c lo uhuul 70 tta•bv ut 9 Lm. l'lu: t:UIIt:enll uliun wull in..:rca!iiCtl unifonuly by l hc !lURie IM:H:cnl a sc from I he IIOt faat:c lo 9 l m. �
•
-
CONFI DENTIAL
- 55 -
-2 . -1 12 2 -1
gC . m yr 10 m G tC yr GtC
- 56 -
NEXT WAVE
1983 2 . 52 2 . 36 0 . 77 5 . 65 6 . 28
1985 2 . 61 2 . 56 0 . 83 6 . 00
1990 2 . 61 2 . 83 0 . 89 6 . 33
1995 2 . 61 3 . 14 0 . 97 6 . 72
2 0 00 2 . 70 3 . 62 1 . 07 7 . 39
2005 2 . 84 4 23
. 1 . 16 8 . 23 9 . 39
D IVIDED WORLD
1983 2 . 52 2 . 36 0 . 77 5 . 65 6 . 28
1985 2 . 59 2 . 50 0 . 81 5 . 90
1990 2 . 70 2 . 66 0 87
. 6 . 23
1995 2 . 81 2 . 95 0 92
. 6 . 68
2000 2 . 88 3 . 28 0 . 98 7 . 14
2 00 5 3 . 03 3 . 66 1 . 01 7 . 70 8 . 87
CONFIDENT IAL
- 57 -
oil
( m i l l ion bb l/d ) 58 . 2 4.5 7.7
gas
3
( m i l l iard m jyr ) 1565 56 3.6
coal
(mi l l ion t/yr ) 4147 32 0.8
Tab l e 8 . Contr ibution to global C02 emi s s ions from fue l s s o l d by the
She l l Group in 1 9 8 4 ( s ource : She l l Coal )
oil 2 . 5 6 ( 40% ) 0 . 20 ( 3 . 1% )
gas 0 . 80 ( 12 % ) 0 . 03 (0 . 5% )
c oal 2 . 46 ( 3 8 % ) 0 . 02 ( 0 . 4% )
NCE* 0 . 63 ( 10% ) 0 ( 0 . 0% )
total 6 . 45 ( 10 0 % ) 0 . 25 ( 4% )
- 58 -
APPEND IX 1
co
2
( atmo sphere ) � co2 ( di s s o lved) (1)
+ H 0 � H co ;,=:=.' HC0
- +
co ( di s s o lved) + H (2)
2 2 2 3 3
- -- +
HC0
3
� co 3 + H (3)
H 3 Bo 3 � H 2 Bo 3 - + H
+
(4)
+
H 0 � 0H - + H (5)
2 �
H p C0 I [ C0 ] (6)
2 2
- +
[ HC0 3 ] [H ] I [ C0 2 ] (7)
+
[H ] I [ HCO 3 (8)
whe r e
[ c onc entrat i ons in water
H Henry ' s l aw c ons tant
p co e qui l ib r ium p art ial pres sure in the gas e ous phas e
2
The c ons tant H i s dependent on the t empera ture and K depends on t emper ature
and s al ini ty .
(9 )
A ( 10 )
- 59 -
(11)
( 12 )
� [ H2 C03 ] � [ co;- 1
=
( 13 )
[ H 2 C03 ] [ co;- 1
6 [ H2 C03 ] A�C �c ,6 l: C
= = x -- ( 14 )
[ H2 C03 ] [ co;- 1 [ co;- 1 l:. C
S
L:. pC02 = .o r:: c
( 15 )
pC02 I: C
- 60 -
If C02 i s added t o the sur f a c e ocean , the pH decreases and the tendency
for CaC03 d i s s o lut ion increas e s . If t h i s occur s , both the alka linity ( 1 0 )
and t he t o t a l C02 ( 9 ) increa se . Al though t h i s p r oc e s s generates an increa s e
i n t o t a l C02 , t he ne t e f f e c t o f t h e a lka l in i t y inc r e a s e woul d be t o
enhance t h e ocean ' s c apac i t y f o r C 0 2 up t ake b y keep ing t h e buf fer f a c t or
c ons t an t and p r ovid ing co;-- ions ( 1 6 ) .
C ON F I D EN T I AL
- 61 -
Ap p e n d ix 2
Recent reports on
the greenhouse effect
What are sorne of the dzfferences between the EPA and NRC studies?
00 1 �936X/S./09 1 6--004 5 A$0 1 .50/0 @ 1 9S. American Chemical Soctety E.rNiron . Sci. Tec:Mol., V ol . 18, No. 2, 19� .SA
C ON F I D ENT IAL
to 202 5 . then slow their growth to i ncome elasticities of demand. These t h e m a x i m u m esti mated tempera t u re
s l i g h t ly u n der 1 % a n n u a l l y a fter are set at grea ter than or equal to one red u ct ion is onl y 0 . 7 ° ( .
2025 ." N R C states that i ts esti m a tes over the entire world to the year 2 1 00.
a re lower t han t hose in m a n y earl ier This means that as i ncomes go u p . en Other projKtions
stud ies for two major reasons: "" First. ergy u se goes u p proportionat e l y or In the EPA report, a number of
the expected grow t h of t he globa l greater than proportionately, except as other energy scenarios are investi
economy is now thou g h t to be slower it is a ffected by prices and enhanced gated, but a l l of t h e m are v a r i a n t s of
t h a n had earl ier bee n ge n era l l y as energy e fficiency . the mid-ra nge scenario and non e of
sumed." Second, N RC incl udes i n the The analysis is set up in such a way them are u sed as baseli nes from wh ich
a na lysis i n centives to s u bs t i t u te other that no new technology such as solar or to assess the effects of d i fferent pol i
energy sou rces for fossil fu e l s as the fusion becomes compet i tive with either cies . The other scenarios are ca l led
prices for fossi l fu els rise . M ost other coal or nuclea r as a source of electric high renewa ble, high nuclear, h i g h
stud ies have downpla yed the potential power to the yea r 2 1 00. Solar and electric, low deman d , a n d h igh fossi l .
i m porta nce of t h i s e ffect . biomass bot h remain m i nor energy These all u se t he same growth forecast
Bot h of N R C 's a pproaches pro sources . Therefore, except for n uclear for G N P as is employed in the m i d
duced not a single value bu t a range of power, no economical substitute for range scenario. The low-d e m a n d
values for future C02 emissions. with fossil fuel emerges over the next 1 20 scenario i s t h e onl y one t h a t projects a
h i gher probabi l i t ies assigned to some years. I n contrast, the EPRI Journal sig n i ficant cha nge in energy de
values tha n to others . In neither ap concl uded recent l y that for just one mand -24% less i n 2050-and com
proach was an e ffort m a de to resolve emergi ng energ y technology, photo parable red uctions in C02 em issions .
u ncerta inties; rather, both approaches vol taics, .. t hree approaches now have The EPA stud y i ncl udes one sce
recognize that projections of the future a better-than-even cha nce of meeting nario in which the growth rate in G N P
become more a nd more uncerta i n as the cost and efficiency thresholds i s lowered somewhat, bu t i t i s de
the time horizon expa nds. needed for bulk power genera tion." creased only a fter 2050 and onl y for
Further, the EPA report assumes the less developed regions, w h ere it is
lnetitable results fixed price elasticities for fossi l fuel reduced from 3.8% to 2.8% per yea r .
The EPA report a lso considers demand t h a t are independent of fuel The scenario projects a temperature
u ncert a i nt ies in som e sections, but i n cost. Thus, the economic attractiveness rise in 2 1 00 that is only 0. 2 °C lower
t h e core of t h e report, t h e a na lysis o f of i ncreasing t h e effi c iency of energy than it is in the mid-range scenario.
future C02 emissions, it ignores them. use or substituting other energy forms From this a n a l ysis, EPA concludes in
The st udy adopts a set of econom ic is assumed to be i ndependent of fossil the executive summary that reduced
a ss umptions to w h i c h no ra nges of fuel prices . This assumption becomes economic growth ca uses only "minor
u ncerta inty are a t ta c h ed , a n d from particularly i m porta nt as the rapidly [i.e., five years or less] changes in the
these and t he use of a globa l energy increasing use of fuels exha usts the date of a 2 °C warming."
model derives what i s ca l led a refer conve n t ional oil a nd natural gas The energy model used by EPA is
ence m id-ra nge basel ine projection or suppl i es and greater relia nce on syn not intrinsica l l y inaccurate or unrea l
scenario. Various policies i ntended to thetic fuels from coa l and on uncon istic. But, the fact that only one run of
slow or limit the ra te of C02 rise are ventional gas and oil is required. Many the model is used to assess the impl i
then tested aga i nst this proj ection . energy analysts believe that these cations o f d i fferent policies a n d that
Because the policies are tested a ga i nst costly forms of fossil fuel may not be this run involves assumptions to w hich
no other projections, the a ssu mptions economically competitive w i th other no range of u n certa i nty is assigned
embedded in this mid-ra nge projection energy options i n a number of situa introduces a certain inevitabi li ty to the
arc critical in determi n i ng the results tions. conclusions. The N RC report de
of t he policy ana l ysis. A final assumption of the EPA scribes this model as ••the only care
I f the main elements of E PA 's en study is that other greenhouse gases fully documented, long-ru n global
ergy ana l ysis are exa m i ned , i t can be such as nitrous oxide, methane, and energy model operating in t he United
seen that EPA's conc l usions follow c h l orofl uorocar bo ns w i l l have a States," but says that i ts size and
almost inevitably from its assumptions. warm ing effect approximately equal to complexity make "identi fication of
First, the agency assu mes a rate of that of C02. A large uncertainty is critical parameters or assumptions a
economic growth that would be con associated with this assumption, but it formidable task." Unfortunately, the
sidered h i gh by a n u m be r of ana l ysts . is used neverthel ess in evaluating t he EPA report does not even expl a i n the
G ross world product is projected to effectiveness of various policies such as possible importance of these criti ca l
increase from 6.06 tril lion U .S dollars taxes or bans on various foss i l fuels.. I t assumptions to t h e concl usi ons i t
in 1 97 5 to 1 84 .8 7 trillion doll a rs in assumes that t h e warming from other draws, nor d oes i t analytically t es t the
2 1 00, in constant 1 97 5 dollars (a factor greenhouse gases w i l l m i tigate the ef sensitivity of these conclusions to other
of 30 increase) . The average annual fect of lowering C02 emissions. For sets of assu mptions made by credible
rates of increase over the 1 25-year example, a 30% decrease in emissions energy analysts and economi s ts .
period range from a bout 2.8% per year prod uces only a 1 5% decrease in the T h e E P A study i s interesting be
for the developed regions to over 3% expected warm i n g . ca use it shows that policies w h i c h at
( 3 .8% after 20 50) for the less devel Beca use none o f these assumptions first glance appea r u sefu l may not be
oped nations. D u ri n g this same time is changed i n testing the various poli quick and easy a nswers to the green
period, per capita gross na tiona l cies, none but the most stringent and house proble m . It is mislead ing i f it
prod uct (G N P) in A frican cou ntries, therefore highly infeasible-such as a gives the impression that its projections
for example, grows from a n average of total ba n on coal by the year 2000 - are the only possible or probable ones
S3 7 5 per yea r to S 1 4 ,000 per year in s u bsta ntially reduces C02 emissions or that all policies that m ight be i n s t i
constant 1 975 dol la rs . and the resulting warming. Worldwide tuted to mitigate the greenhouse effect
The total energy dema nd is tied d i taxes of up to I 00% on fossi l fuels re are doomed to fai l u re .
rectly to the G N P by w h a t a re called duce em issions 1 0-42% i n 2 1 00, but - Bette H i leman
- 63 -
APPENDIX 3
G ene ral
I t i s not surp r i s ing that many count r i e s invo lved in trans - b oundary a i r
p o l lution prob l ems , al s o s er ious ly f e a r s oc i o - e conomic and c l imat i c
c onsequenc e s o f inc re as ing C0 2 concentrat ions . Al though currently no
l e g i s l a t i on ex i s t s w i th re gard to the C02 prob l em , s ome of the s e count r i e s
a r e deve l op ing envi ronmental po l i c i e s at a nat i onal l eve l . The USA and The
Ne the rlands are here taken as examp l e s be caus e o f the i r ac t iv i t i e s and
ini t i a t ive s in thi s fie l d .
The i s sue o f c arb on dioxide and c l imat i c change h a s been on the UNEP agenda
fo r many years . From a r e l a t ive ly unimportant s ubj e c t i t deve l oped into a
re current i s sue and recently cl ear l inks were shown to exi s t w i th i s sues
s uch as de fore s ta t i on and hazards to the o z one laye r p o s e d by
chlorofluo roc arbons ( CFC ' s ) .
Dur ing the t enth annive rsary o f the UN conference on the Human Environment
in May 1 9 8 2 the Gove rning Counc i l de fined the trends , prob l ems and
p r i o r i t i e s for ac t ion wh i ch should rece ive attent i on by the UN sys tem . W i th
r e s p e c t to the atmo sphe re the fo llow ing i tems we r e i dent i f i ed . The s e inc lude
the c ont inuing increase of C02 , o the r trace gas e s and par t i cul a t e s
CONFIDENT IAL
- 64 -
in the atmo sphe re and pos s ible e ffec ts o f human ac t ivi t i e s on weathe r and
c l imate .
The fo l l ow ing ac t i ons were given pr ior i ty :
- inte grated mon i t o r ing o f a tmo spher i c pollutant s and the i r e ffe c t s
- deve l opment and p romo t i on o f approp r i ate global , r egi onal and nat ional
pro gramme s
- unde r s tanding o f fac tors affe c t ing c l imate , inc luding o c ean - atmo sphere
interac t i on
The Counc i l reque s te d the Execut ive Director to c ons i de r the appropr iate
t im ing for an as s e s sment of the p o tenti al s o c io - e c onomi c impac t s . of
increased C02 c oncentrations in the atmo spher e and for the e s tab l ishment of
a c omm i t te e to c o ordinate related r es earch and informat ion exchange . Th i s in
the l i ght of the progre s s made by WHO and I C SU , in coop e r a t i on w i th the Food
and Agr i cul ture Organ i sat i on ( FAO ) of the Uni ted Nati ons and the Uni te d
Nat i ons Educat i onal , S c ient i fi c and Cul tural Organ i s at i on (UNES CO ) .
C02 r e lated excerp ts from the reports p re s ented at the twe l fth s e s s i on of
the G ove rning Counc i l i n May 1 9 8 4 ar e g iven in Appendix 4 .
Europe an Commun i ty ( EC )
I n Dec emb e r 1 9 7 9 the Counc i l adop ted the prop o s al for a f ive - year
( 19 80 - 1984) indire c t - ac t ion programme on c l imatology (1) . The ma in
obj e c t ive s wer e to c ontr ibute to a b e t ter under s tanding of c l imatic
proce s s e s and var i a t i ons , and to a s s e s s the p o tent ial impac t o f c l imat i c
var i a t i ons on bas i c r e s ource s and the e ffe c t o f human ac t iv i t i e s on c l ima t ic
var i a t i ons .
Th i s programme f i t te d in w i th the Wo rld Me teorological Organ i s at i on ' s Wo rld
Cl imate Programme and included the fo l lowing r es earch areas :
CONFIDENTIAL
- 65 -
The pub l ic and s enior gove rnmental sc i ent i s t s grew more and more conc e rned
about the imp l i c at i ons o f the r i s ing C02 c ontent o f the a tmo sphere with
r e gard to agr i cul tural and human s e ttlement p a t t e rns in the long - te rm . In
the b e ginning o f 1 9 8 5 th i s conc e rn was cons i de red suff i c ient ly real to
j us t i fy the introduc t i on of s tudi e s into p os s ib le al t e rnat ive ene rgy
s trategie s .
Organ i s at ion for Economi c Coope rat i on and Deve lopment ( OECD )
Dur ing i ts work on envi ronmental pol i cy , the OECD has e s t ab l i shed and
adopted a s e r i e s o f p r inc iples w i th a view to the i r inc o rporat ion in
nat i onal l e gi s lation and regul ati ons conc e rn ing the p r o te c t ion o f the
environment and also i� inte rnat i onal agreement s ( e . g . 1 , 2 , 3 ) .
Apar t from rec ommendat i ons wi th re gard to long - range trans - boundary air
p o l lut i on and reduc t ion of environmental impac t s from ene rgy p roduc t i on and
us e , no spe c i al a ttent i on was paid to the C02 prob lem .
CONFIDENTIAL
- 66 -
USA
The Netherlands
- The government w i l l t ake the nec e s s ary measures to p romo te the awarene s s
and knowledge o f the C02 p r ob l em and o f trace gas e s wh i ch migh t influence
the global c l imate . At the nat i onal l evel th i s wi l l b e e l aborated by
p roviding and pub l i sh ing re levant info rmat ion . However , i t i s recogn i s e d
tha t the only e ffe c t ive way to tackle the problem i s through interna t ional
c o operat ion and exchange of informa t i on . As the C02 p r ob l em rec e ive s
a t tent ion in only a few countr i e s and s c i ent i f i c organ i s at ions , the Dutch
gove rnment w i l l enc ourage internat i onal organisat ions such as UNEP ,
EOS D/ I EA and EC , t o expand the i r ac t iv i t i e s in th i s f i e l d .
- In o rde r to narrow the unc e r ta int i e s about future c l imat i c change s and t o
de f ine po s s ib l e measures t o reduce the impac t , oppo r tun i t i e s fo r
s c ient i fi c r e s e arch w i l l b e provided in c lo s e cooperat ion w i th the EC
CONFI D ENT I AL
- 67 -
2 . D e e l adv i e s inz ake C02 - p rob l e ma t i e k , G e z ondhe i ds raad , Feb ruary 1983
3. Onde r z o ek i n N e de r l and naar de gevo l gen van d e t o e name van C02 . en ande re
spo rengas s en in de atmo s fe e r door mens e l ij ke ac t ivi t e i ten , RMNO , May 1 9 84
CONF I D ENTIAL
- 68 -
UNITED �ATIO NS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME
OF ltEP
I NG COK I l
TO THE "11£LfTR SESS 1 00 OF ITS GCNERN
I RPTC - GENE:YA
16.
:B a ckground
Carbon di oxide (C02) i s a n a t u r a l tr a ce cons t i tuent of the ear th ' s a tmo s p here .
The pr e s en t mean conc entrati on of C 0 is around 340 ppm by vo lume . co ha s a cr i t i ca l
2 2
r o l e i n th e g l ob a l h e a t ba l anc e in t nat it is e s s en t i a l ly tr anspar ent to the incoming
s o l ar r ad i a ti on but abs o rb s the infra-red rad iat ion emd t t ed by the earth . This r ad i a t i o n
t r ap cau s e s a '-"arming of the l ower atmo s pher e vhich is knowu as the "&r eenhous e e f f e ct " .
The g l ob al na ture o f the CO prob l em r es u l t s largely from the combus t ion o f fos s il
fue l s(o i l , coal and natural g a s ) �
o s e consump t ion has been increasing s t ea d i ly s inc e the
beg inning o f the l as t c entury . The corr e sponding rel ea s e of co has re sul t ed in a s i gni f i
2
cant bui ld-up in the a tmo spher e , frac � tr. t �t ed conc entration of l e s s th an 300 ppm in
th e mid d l e of th e nineteenth c entury to a pr e s ent-day value o f about 340 ppm . Redu c e d
energy d e=and s ince the mid-1 9 70 s b a s c au s ed a s l i ght r eduction i n the annua l incr ea s e i n
f o s s il fuel us e and consequent co emi s s i on s .
2
Glob al impact
S everal un c e r t a i n t i e s surround the co i s sue and these pla ce cons traint s on the
2
a s s es smen t of co • s g l ob a l impac t . There ar e al s o def i c i encies in our knowl edge of the
2
natural c arb on cyc l e and i t s react ion to p e rturb a ti on by human ac t i vi t i e s . For exampl e ,
only about hal f o f the co d i s charged from fo s s il fuels over the l a s t two decades c an b e
2
found i n the a tmo sphere . It i s commonly sugg es t ed that the oc eans act as the ma in s ink
for thi s "mi s s i n g " f os s il fuel C0 2 al though it i s unc ertain whether net trans fer to the
oceans can ac count f or al l the defi c i t . There is a l s o uncertainty over the magn i t u d e o f
co r el ease ari s ing from man ' s wi d e s c:a l e a nd increas ing f or e s t clear ance activ i t i e s , vi t h
2
e s t ima t e s rang ing from ins i gn i f icant to an amount comp ar able vi th fos s il fuel co ,
·
2
al th ou gh mo s t proj e c t i ons ind i cate tha t , in the long term, f o s s i l fuel emi s s ions vi l l b e
an order o f magni tude l arger than b io spheric: emi s s ions . If the latter is true , the
fract ion of man-made co which remains airborne is lower than pre s ent e s t ima t e s indi cat e ,
2
sugge s t ing that co inc r ea s es wi l l oc cur mor e s l owly than currently predicted .
2
Uncertaint ies al s o surround the earth ' s future demand for fo s s i l fuel s and eon- ·
s e quent co 2 rel ea s e . Some recent predict ions e s t imate that atmo spheric: co conc entrat ions
_ ppm in the tnir d quart er of the next century ; 2
may pas s 600 this value repr esents a
doub l ing of the pr e-indus tr ial concentration . It has al so been forecas t that the great e s t
inc re a s e in co release from f o s s il fu el s wi l l ari s e in the developing countr i e s .
2
It is g eneral ly accep t ed that future increas e s in the atmospher ic: co2 l evel vi l l
caus e a ri s e i n the average glob al tEmperatur e . However , there is still debate over the
maplitud e of thi s vanrlng . Calculations wi th three-dimens ional , t ime-dep endent models o f
t he alobal atmo spheric c irculat i on indicate that a doublina o f tbe co level vi l l cause
° ° 2
an av erage z l obal warming o f l . S C - 4 . 5 C vith rreat e s t increases predi c t ed for the
h i gher latitudes of the northern hemisphere .
� �
C urrent ly t here i s no e�idenc e t ha t there ba b een a o � induced incre a s e in the
2
g l ob a l t �pe ratur e . The d e t e c t 1 on of such an e f f e c t 1 1 made d 1 f r 1 cu l t by t he inherent
var i ab i l i ty in c l imat e . In addi t ion , pred i c t ions of the time when a g lob a l va�ing wi l l
b e d e t ec t ab l e ar e h i ghly d ep endent o n the a s sume d r a t e of beat exch ange b e �•een d i f f e r en t
p ar t s o f the o c e ans .
S everal ap pro ache s to contr o l the c o prob l em have b e en propo s e d . The " t ec hn i c a l
2
f ix e s " Vh i ch invo lve the c o l lec t i on and d i s po s al of co are not cons i dered to be prac t i ca l
2
o r economi c a l . Al t ernat ive energy sy s t ems wh i ch d o no t emit co might b e d evel o p e d to
2
r educe the rel i anc e on fo s s il fuel s a l t hough such a c t i ons ar e current ly cons id ered t o be
o f l imi t ed e f fe c t ivenes s and prohic i tive ly expens ive . En ergy cons e rvat ion i s con s i d e r ed
to be an �po r t ant me ans o f r educ ing co emi s s i on s fram f o s s i l fuel s .
2
R E COMMENDA TIONS
(a ) B � c au s s r e p l a c em � n t o f fo s s l t fu e l s b y a t t� rna ti u e
e n e r gy s o u r c e s i • p r o b a b l y s � i t 1 n o t f� a s i b t • • co nomica t t y
a n d p o t i t i ca t t y � p r i o r i t y s h o u l d b• g iu e n to wo r k g e ared to
t h e de u e t o p m s n t of t o ng - t e rm e ne r g y o p t i c n s no t bas e d o n
combu s t i o n o f fo s s i l fu • t s ;
(• ) Upda t e d a s s e s sm e n t s o f t h e C0 2 c l i ma t e issu • sh ld ou
b • unde r ta ke n i o i nt t y by a v.H O /I CS � �
/U EP . CO z s tudy g ro � p
wi t h an a p p r o p r i a t e l y broad i n t e r d 1. s �
c1.p 1. n m• mb e rs�1.P :
ar�
A • • cond a s s • s s m s n t o f t h • r o t • o f CO z 1. n c t 1.ma t • V ar 1. a t 1. o n s
and t h � i r impa c t s hou l d b � m
ade i n _ t S S S .
CONF I D ENT I AL l!.\E P RE ?OKT NO . 2 ( 1 9 s t. )
UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROG RAM ME
OF
SC J ENT J FJ C �HS
...
J RPTC - GENEVA
23 .
C ON F I D ENT I AL
CARBON D I OX I D E
Back.g roun d
C arbon d i oxide (C0 2 ) is a natural c ons � i t u en t of the Earth ' s a rmo s phere . I t ma k e s
up only about three-hundr e d ths o f one per cent of the a tmo s phere , yet p l ay s a crucial r o l e
in th e p l ane t ' s he a t b a l anc e . Th i s i s be cau se C0 2 ab sorb s infra-red: r a d i a t i on emi t t ed
from the Earth ' s surface , produc ing a varming o f t he l ower atmo sphe re . Thi s rad i a t i o n
trap is know as the "gre enhous e e f f ect " .
Regular moni toring me as ur em e nt s from around the wcrld reveal tha t by 1 9 5 8 th e co 2 conceD
tration had incr ea s e d to about 3 15 ppm , wh il e in 1 9 80 the value had r i s en fur ther to
about 338 p pm (Bacas t ow and Ke e l ing , quo t ed in Smi th , 19 8 2 ) .
The s ignif i cance of a tmo s phe r i c C0 2 ac cumu l a t i on should b e exzmined in the con
text o f the g lo b a l carbon cycl e . Unf ortun a t e ly , al tho u gh the princ ipa l s ources , s inks
and tr ans f e r kine t i c s are we l l e s t ab l i s hed ( Bo l in et a l . 1 9 7 9 ) , there are s t i l l uncertain
ties in regard to s eve r a l important de ta i l s o f the-cycle . For examp l e , a quan t i ty , some
what larg er than ha l f of the C0 2 re l e a s ed from f o s s i l fue l s over the l a s t two decade s , i s
found in the a tmo sphere , i nd i c a t ing the pre s ence of a C0 2 s ink as ye t un a c co un t e d for .
It i s commonly s u g g e s t ed that the oceans act as the ma in s ink for this "mi s s in g " f o s s i l
fue l C0 2 , a l t ho u gh i t i s f ar f rom cl ear wh e ther net trans fer t o the oceans c an ac count
for a l l th e def i c i t . Unce r t a inty a l s o exi s ts in the magnitude of C0 2 r e l e a s e from chan g e s
in l and u s e , pa rt i c ul a r ly d e f o re s ta t i on . E s tima t e s o f th e C0 2 re l e a s e d f r om thi s s ource
range from ins i gni f icaut to an amount. comp arab l e vi th f o s s i l fue l co 2 (Ro tty 1 9 8 0 ;
�o odwe l l , C .M . !! !! · 1 9 8 3 ) . If the lat t er is true , the fraction of man-m3de co 2 wh i ch
remains airborne , is l ower than present e s t imat e s indi cate , sugg e s t ing that co2
increase s wi l l o ccur s lower than current ly predicted .
Sup e r imp o s ed upon th e s e deficienci e s in our under s tanding of the carbon cycle i s
the uncertainty surrounding future an ergy d em.and s md c ons e qu en t C0 2 releas e . tJntil
recen t ly , mos t f orecas t s of fu ture fossil use were based on the high srovth rat e s o f
energy demand in the e arly 1970s (e . s " 1otty 1978) . Bovever 1 mo s t s tudy sroup s have nOY
revi sed the ir predict ions of energy d e=and downvards (Bif el e � !!·
1981 ; Rot ty 19 80) .
The s e later e s t imat e s of future co 2 release can be used in conj unction wi th current ly
accep ted mode l s of the carbon eycle to produce foreca s t s of future atmo s pher i c co 2 • The
value s ob tained are depend ent on the a s � tion empl oyed , but several e s t imat e s ind i ca t e
that by the year 2 0 2 5 a tmo s ph e r i c co l eve l s c o u l d have r i s en t o 450 o r even 600 ppm
2
(RD t ty 1980 ; Smi th 1 9 8 2 ) . A mor e recent s tudy has predicted that a tm o s ph e r i c co
2 c on
cen t r a t i ons may pa s s 600 ppm by the third quarter o f the next century . For the year 2000 ,
the mos t l ikely c oncentration is 370 ppm (NAS 1 9 8 3 ) .
2. � .
It i s con c e iv ab l e that the con s ensus oo ta ined between re c en t GCM s tud i e s may be
s p uri o u s and could r e s u l t from the c ommon method o l o gy emp lo ye d by such inve s ti g at i ons .
In th i s re s p e c t , i t is of i n t e r e s t to no t e tha t an independent approach , us ing r a d i a t ion
ba l an c e meas urement s , oo tained a value of �0 . 2 6°C for the increas e in t�perature due to
a d oub li n g o f the C0 2 level (Id s o 1 9 80 ) . Thi s s tudy has , however , b e e n wide l y c ri t i c i z e d
f o r s ev e r a l reas ons , part i cu l arly f o r ignoring the fee db a c k mechanism whe reby g r ea t er
ev ap o r a t i on from the oceans would caus e au increas e iu the mo i s ture content of the atmo s
phere , whi ch in turn re s ul t s i n an enhanc e d "greenhous e effect" ( S chne i der , Ke l lo g g and
Ramana than 1 980) .
Resul ts f r om sever al GCM inve s ti g ations iud i cate that a C02-induced incre a s e in
g lob a l temperatur e shou l d a lready be de tec t ab le ( e . g . Madden and lamanathan 1980) .
C u rr e n t l y , however , there is no genera l ly accepted evidence that such an increase bas
taken p l a c e . The de te c t i on of such an e f f e c t or "s ignal" is made dif f icu l t by t he "no i s e "
ar i s ing f r om the inherent variab i l ity o f c l �te . Th i s prob l � is ,exacerbated b e cause
attempts to detect such an effect have r e l ied on ob s ervations o f a s ing le var i ab l e such
as me an summe r temperatures at a part i cu l ar l at i tud e . It has , theref ore , been prop o s e d
tha t phys i cal a s we l l as s tat i s tical ev i d enc e should b e sought , such as t he r e l at i o ns h ip
b e tween tropo spher ic and strato s pheric t £mperature s (Madden and l aman a t han 1980) . In
addi t ion , a crit i cal ex ami n a t ion of GCM s tud i e s ( S c h l e s i ng er 1983) reveal e d tha t the
predicted time vhen a col - induc e d wa � i ng vi l l be de tectable i s h ig h ly de pendent on the
as s umed rate at which heat i s exchanged b etween the oceanic mixed layer and th e d e eper
oce an . This uncertainty need s to �e reduced to allow be tter predictions of the t ime of
fi r s t detecti on .
AD imp o rt an t f inding from GCM s tudi es is that regard le s s of the reason for an
increa se in g l ob al temp erature , there are ceneral s �i l ar itie s in the pat tern of c l �a t i c
change . Th e re g i onal imp l ication s of a g l obal warm in g ma y there fore b e as s e s s e d by
ref erence t o the pas t as a guide f or future pat terns of c l �at ic chang e . P o l len r e c ord s
from one of the four warm ep o c hs durin& the l as t 2 . 5 mi l l ion years have been u s e d to
re cons truct rainf a l l pat t erns f or different par t s ·of the wor ld (Eellogg 1 9 7 8 ) . The f ind
inss obtaiued have beeu cri t i c iz ed as the r ecord s are often poorly dated . the recent
pas t , for which instrumental record s - are availab l e , is cons idered to be a more u s e ful
guide f or e s t abli sning po ss ibl e patterns o f c l imat i c change . One suCh s tudy (Wi g l ey ,
Jon e s aud �el ly 1 9 80) compared cond it ion� iu the f ive varmes t year s �etween 1 9 2 5 and 1 9 7 4
· with th e f ive coldest in th e p er iod , using d a t a f r om the high northern latitudes , the
reg ion wh e re C0 2 -induc ed chang e s are pr edi cted to be zreates t . Temperature incr e a s es wer e
ob t a ined for mos t reg i on s , wi th maximal warming in the c on t ine n tal inter iors a t h i gh
25 .
C ON FI DENT IAL
la�i �ud es . E s t ima � i on of �he human and env i r onmen t a l c ons e qu en c e s o f such c l imat i c ch an g e s
can o n l y be s p e c u l a t i v e and unc ert a i n . Adv e r s e e f f e c � s i n one part o f �he vo r l d ma y b e
c omp en s a t e d b y a b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t i n ano ther reg ion (�P 1 9 8 1 ) .
Control s tr a t eg i e s
It � t be s tre s s ed tha t any effort to minimize the impact of a tmo sph e r ic co2 accumu l a � i on
should involve the �provement of world agriculture . In thi s vay , it wi l l be pos s ib le to
reduc e the vu lnerab ility of ag ri cu l tura l .,st�s t o cl�t i c chang e . This i s a dual
b enef i t approach , as the c l imate wil l f luctuate whether ther e is co2 a c cumu l at i on or no t .
An increase in agr i cu l tural re s i lience would resu l t from _ tbe p ro te c t ion o f s o i l s by
improved land manag ement practices and tha development of cult ivars vhich are adap ted t o
a vide range of c l imat ic condi t ions ( Sc!me ider and Jach 1 980) .
CONF I D ENTIAL
- 75 -
APPENDIX 5
The mandat e o f S COPE i s t o as s emb l e , review , and as s e s s the inf o rmat ion
avai l ab l e on man - made environmenta l change s and the e ffec t s of the s e
changes on man ; to as s e s s and evaluate the me thodo l o g i e s o f measurement o f
env ir onmental parame ters ; to prov i de an inte l l i genc e s e rvi c e o n current
r e s e arch ; and by the recrui tment of the b e s t ava i l ab l e s c i ent ific
info rmat ion and c ons truc t ive th inking to e s tab l i sh i t s e l f as a corpus of
informed advice for the bene f i t o f c entr e s o f fundamental r e s e arch and o f
o rgan i s a t i ons and agenc ie s ope rat ional ly engaged i n s tudi e s o f the
environment .
S COPE S e c re t ariat
5 1 Boulevard de Montmo rency
7 5 0 1 6 Par i s
France
- 76 -
�0
P . O . Box 5
Geneva 20
Swi t z e r l and
P ro f . Dr . Egon T . Degens
Geologi s ch - PalAonto logi s che s Ins t i tut
Univers i tA t Hamburg
Bunder s tras s e 5 5
200 Hamburg 1 3
�G
- 77 -
addre s s ing global atmo spher i c C02 prob lems . CDIC i s spons ored by the
Depar tment o f Ene rgy ' s ( DO E ) C arbon D ioxi de Re s e arch D ivi s ion and is
admin i s tered by the Information D ivi s ion at Oak Ridge Nat i onal Laboratory .
- CDI C maintains a B ib l iograph i c Information Sys tem c ontaining ove r 7 0 0 0
keyworded refe renc e s .
- i t maintains an Internat ional Direc tory o f approximate ly 1 7 0 0 C02
r e s e arche r s .
- i t pub l i shes CDI C Communi cat i ons , a b iannual news l e t t e r tha t rep o r t s on
many aspec ts o f C02 - related r e s e arch proj e c t s , event s , mee t ings , and
pub l i c a ti ons .
cor e
Oak Ridge National Labo ratory
P . O . Box x
Oak Ri dge , Tenne s s e e , U . S .
Canada
- 78 -
APPENDIX 6
Br i t i sh Me teorological Office
Brackne l l , U . K .
( B . J . Mas on ; J . G il chr i s t )
Department o f Me teorology
Univers i ty o f S to ckholm , S tockho lm , Sweden
( B . Bo l in )
- 79 -
Department o f Me teorology
M . I . T . , Cambridge , Mas s achus e t t s , U . S .
( R . Newe l l )
Department o f Me teorology
Univers i ty of S tockholm , S tockho lm , Sweden
( S - A . Odh ; J . He intz enberg)
Brown Unive rs i ty
Providenc e , Rhode I s land , U . S .
( J . Imb r i e )
- 80 -
Duke Unive r s i ty
( K . R . Krame r )
NOAA Re s e ar ch Lab s
Boulde r , Colorado , U . S .
( B . Bean)
- 81 -
Temp l e , Texas
( G . Arkin)
Unive r s i ty o f Flo r i da
(K . Boote )
USDA
Temp l e , Texas , U . S .
( J . T . R i tchi e )
- 82 -
APPENDIX 7
Bach , W .
Our Threatened C l imate : Ways of Aver t ing the C02 P roblem through Rat ional
Ener gy Use
Kluwer Acad . Publ . , H ingham , MA, 1 9 84
Bach , W . ( ed . )
Carbon D i oxide : Current Views and Deve lopments in Energy/Cl imate Re s e arch
Kluwer Acad . Pub l . , H ingham , MA , 1 9 8 3
Bo l in , B .
C arbon Cyc le Mode l l ing
S c op e Repo r t 1 6 , W i l ey , NY , 1 9 8 1
*
Bol in , B . ; De gens , E . T . ; Kempe , S . ; Ketne r , P . ( eds )
The G l obal Carbon Cyc le
S c op e Rep o r t 1 3 , Wiley , NY , 1 9 7 9
C l ark , W . C . ( ed . )
C arbon D ioxide Review : 1 9 8 2
Oxford Univ . Pre s s , NY , 1 9 8 2
Cush ing , D . H .
C l imate and F i she r i e s
Academi c Pre s s , NY , 1 9 8 3
CONFIDENTIAL
- 83 -
Hill , A . E .
Atmosphe re - Ocean Dynamics
Academic Pres s , NY , 1 9 8 2
Houghton , J . T . ( ed . )
The G l obal C l imate
C ambr i dge Univ . Pre s s . , NY, 1 9 84
*
I ds o , S . B .
C arbon D i oxide : Fr iend or Foe ?
IBR Pre s s , Tempe , Ari zona , 19 8 2
JAger , J .
C l imate and Energy Sys tems : a Revi ew of the i r Interac t ions
W i l ey , NY , 1 9 8 3
Lemon , E . R .
C02 and p l ants : The Re spons e o f Plants to R i s ing Leve l s o f Atmo sphe ric
C arbon D i oxide
We s t V iew Pre s s , Boulde r , CO , 1 9 8 3
*
Li s s , P . S . ; Crane , A . J .
Man - Made C arbon D ioxide and C l imate Change : A Revi ew o f the S c i en t i fic
Prob l ems
G EO Books , Norwich , England , 1 9 8 3
MacDonald , G . J . ( ed . )
The Long - Te rm Impac ts o f Increas ing Atmosphe r i c Carbon Dioxide Leve l s
Ball inger , Cambridge , Mas s , 1 9 8 2
- 84 -
Organ i s at ion for Economic Cooperat ion and Devel opment I Internat ional
Energy Aency Workshop on Carbon D ioxi de Res e arch and As s e s sment
Par i s , OECD/ I EA , 1 9 8 1
S e i de l , S . ; Keyes , D .
C an we Delay a Gre enhous e Warming?
U . S . EPA , Washington DC , 1 9 8 3
Smi th , I . M .
C arbon Diox i de from Coal Ut i l iz at ion
Technical Information Service , Internat i onal Energy Agency , Par i s , 1 9 8 2
Smith , I . M .
Carbon Diox i de - Emis s ion and Effe c ts
Rep o r t No . I CT I S/TR1 8 , l EA Coal Re se arch , London , 1 9 8 2
Tucke r , G . B .
The C02 - Cl imate Connec t ion
Aus tral i an Academy o f S c i ence , Canberra , 1 9 8 1
UNEP
Mee t ing of the S c i enti fi c Advisory Comm i t t e e of the Wor l d C l imate Imp act
S tudie s Programme
Nairob i , 2 3 - 2 7 February , 1 9 8 1
US - DOE
Carbon D i ox ide Effe c t s Re s e arch and As s e s sment Program
S e r ie s o f Pub l ications by the US Department o f Energy , CONF - 7 9 04143 , 1 9 8 0
CONFIDENTIAL
- 85 -
Van Loon , H . ( ed . )
C l imates o f the Oceans . Vo l . 1 5 , World Survey o f C l imato l o gy
E l s evi e r , Ams terdam , The Ne therlands , 1 9 84
WMO/I C SUjUNEP
On the a s s e s sment of the role of co2 on c l imate var iation and the i r impact
(based on me e t ing o f experts , V i l lach , Aus tr i a , Novemb e r 1 9 8 0 )
World Me teorological Organizat ion , Geneva , J anuary , 1 9 8 1
- 86 -
APPENDIX 8
The CRU made a s tudy o f the greenhouse e ffec t for She l l in about 1 9 8 1 on the
bas i s o f a grant for £ 10000 . Thi s was sub s e quently extended for the US DOE
and was pub l i shed by them in Augus t 1 9 84 ( I was g iven a c opy of the report ) .
I found Wigley very much had h i s fee t on the ground and was at great pains
to emphas i s e the unc e r taint i e s that s t i l l exi s t in thi s are a and the t ime
nee de d b e fore which it wi l l be po s s ib l e to reach any very de finite
conc lus ions about the greenhous e e ffe c t . Having s a i d that , he was prepared
to s t i ck h i s neck out and say that the re has been a global warming over the
l a s t 100 years , that the 0 . 5 degr e e s ( range 0 . 3 - 0 . 7 ) increase is a re sul t of
C02 bui l d - up , that we w i l l s e e a fur the r 1 - 2 degree warming over the next 40
years and that the warming will be greater in higher l at i tude s and more in
winter than in summe r . Such a r i s e would be greater than any change in the
l a s t 1000 years - at the p e ak of the las t ice age ( 1 8 000 years ago ) the
global me an temperature was 4 degrees lowe r than at pre s ent .
The global me an s e a l eve l has r i s en by s ome 1 5 cm over the las t 100 years ,
one th ird due to expans ion o f s ea water and one third due to the me l t ing o f
land i c e ( the me l t ing of s e a ice h a s n o e ffe c t on s e a l evel ) . A 4 degree
warming might resul t in the d i s appe aranc e of all Atlant i c s ea ice in the
summ e r months . By 2 0 5 0 , the range of uncer tainty of the r i s e in global mean
s e a l eve l i s 2 0 - 12 0cm .
By the turn o f the c entury we w i l l have a much be tter idea o f what c aus e d
pas t changes - our moni toring of the uppe r atmo sphere , the oceans and s o l ar
output wi l l have imp roved immeasurab ly . For examp l e , only s ince the l ate
f i f t i e s have we had data that will allow the mode l ing of the atmo sphe r ic
behaviour in three dimens ions the data sugge s t s that whi l e the lowe r
atmo sphere i s warming , the uppe r is c o o l ing .
CONFIDENTIAL
- 87 -
Wi gley i s very inte r e s ted in the e ffec ts o f trace gas e s . He b e l i eve s that i t
i s not real i s t i c t o make pol i cy dec is ions a i med a t reduc ing the e ffec t of
C02 but that we might reasonab ly do s o for the trace gas e s . On a
one - dimens i onal ( global averaging) bas i s , the overall e ffe c t s of
chloro fluorocarbons , ni trous oxide , me thane and o zone are roughly the s ame
as C02 . In a two d imens ional mode l the e ffe c t s might be s l i ghtly l e s s but
there i s no t enough data to be c e r tain . This i s ano ther area where wi l l be
much be t t e r informed in the next 10 - 15 years .
Water vapour alone has a pos i t ive feedback but there i s great unc e r tainty
about the e ffec t of c louds . The s e c an be b o th pos i t ive and ne gat ive ,
trapp ing heat and reflec t ing incoming radiat ion . Further , the e ffe c t s o f the
s ame typ e s o f c louds c an be di fferent at di ffe rent lat i tude s . Next to the
ocean , thi s i s the b i gge s t uncertainty . For example , we are only now
begi nning to mode l the phys i c s of the pas s age of radiat ion through c louds .
M . H . Gr i ff i ths
2 8 th November 1 9 8 5 .