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(QRA)
QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is a method used to systematically calculate
the risks from hazardous events. It involves predicting the size of consequences
associated with a hazard, and the frequency at which a release of the hazard may
be expected to occur. These aspects are combined to obtain numerical values for
risk – usually risk of fatality. In order to quantify the overall risk levels,
The traditional QRA approach shall be followed, which comprises the following
steps:
• Hazard Identification;
• Consequence Analysis;
• Frequency Analysis;
• Risk Mitigation.
The Quantitative Risk Assessment methodology is summarized as following
Hazard Identification is the primary step in Risk Analysis. Many techniques are
available for hazard identification depending upon the objective of the study.
The most relevant technique of risk assessment is the review of release sources
of hazardous materials.
The isolatable sections are identified for the process under study. For each
for injury to people from the identified failure scenarios. The hazard outcomes
are analysed using release rate, dispersion, and fire and explosion models.
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Frequency Analysis
generic leak frequencies from historical databases which include the TNO Purple
Once the failure frequency of the failure scenario has been estimated, event
trees are developed to represent the sequence of events from the onset of the
initial failure. Using probabilities for each event branch, the event tree eventually
Risk Summation
Risk Summation combines the consequences and likelihood of all incident
the consequence and likelihood of each outcome and the associated fatality
fatality is determined within the software and the overall risks are generated. The
Risk Mitigation
The following activities shall be undergone once risk estimation is completed.
• Perform sensitivity studies to help understand uncertainties associated
• Update the risk analysis to estimate the risk benefits associated with
• Prepare bow-ties.
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