Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122

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Ecological Modelling
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel

Qualitative modelling of fishermen’s behaviour in a pelagic fishery

Laura Wise a,∗ , Alberto G. Murta a , Joao P. Carvalho b,c , Marta Mesquita d
a
Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar, Av. Brasília, 1449-006 Lisboa, Portugal
b
INESC-ID, R. Alves Redol 29, 1000-029 Lisboa, Portugal
c
Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
d
Instituto Superior de Agronomia – UTL and CIO-FCUL, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: As managers and fishery scientists become increasingly aware of the need to understand fishermens’
Received 30 July 2011 behaviour when faced with new management strategies, there is a growing need to develop models
Received in revised form 9 December 2011 that describe their decision-making processes and tools that are able to simulate the possible outcomes
Accepted 14 December 2011
of alternative management scenarios. This paper shows how data collected on board fishing vessels, a
Available online 27 January 2012
source of data currently available for many fleets and fisheries around the world, can be combined with
Rule Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, a modelling technique that is able to deal with both quantitative and
Keywords:
qualitative data. Results show that the presented model is able to replicate with a reasonably precision
Fishermen behaviour
Qualitative modelling
the behaviour of a pelagic fishery. Results and the potential of Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to predict
Fishery management fisher’s behaviour are discussed.
Cognitive maps © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fuzzy logic

1. Introduction
Fishery management controls the human harvesting action on
marine ecosystems through more or less complex management
schemes that intend to maintain and promote the quality and the
long-term sustainable exploitation of fishing resources. More often,
the definition of a particular management scheme is based on pre-
dictions of the behaviour of a fishing fleet made by models that
try to describe and simulate in time the fishery in question. The
behaviour of a fishing fleet is determined by the decisions taken
by each individual fisher in each vessel. Fishers decision-making
process is based on their knowledge about the fishery (how, where
and when to fish) gained by experience and cultural transmission.
Therefore, one way of modelling the behaviour of a fishing fleet
would be to take into consideration the behaviour of fishers in
response to a wide range of situations.
A realistic model of the decision-making process of a fisher
would provide a valuable tool for predicting the decisions that
it would take in response to different factors, such as manage-
ment measures (catch or gear restrictions, protected marine areas,
etc.), fluctuations in fish prices and changes in fish abundance.
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +351 213 027 000; fax: +351 213 015 948.
E-mail addresses: lwise@ipimar.pt, wise.beatriz@gmail.com (L. Wise),
amurta@ipimar.pt (A.G. Murta), joao.carvalho@inesc-id.pt (J.P. Carvalho),
marta@math.isa.utl.pt (M. Mesquita).
Several attempts to develop such models have been made in the
past, using different mathematical methods such as analysis of
variance (Hilborn and Ledbetter, 1979), neural networks (Dreyfus-
León, 1999), Markov decision processes and Kalman filters (Dorn,
1998). In this paper we suggest that Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive
Maps (RB-FCM) (Carvalho and Tomé, 2007, 2009) present a good
modelling framework for the modelling and simulation of these
complex dynamic systems.
Our preference for RB-FCM is based on two main reasons: (i) an
important aspect of dynamic systems such as fisheries is the exis-
tence of feed-back loops, e.g. large catches decrease stock biomass,
which triggers management measures that will decrease future
catches. A modelling approach to fishing behaviour should there-
fore be able to simulate feed-back loops; (ii) the growing realisation
that fishers knowledge is an important source of information on
fishing activities and that their possible responses to new policies
should be considered prior to implementation. Since fishers knowl-
edge is often expressed in qualitative terms a desirable feature
of a fisheries modelling tool is its ability to incorporate qualita-
tive information. Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can account for
feed-back loops by performing computations using data in an iter-
ative way and because they are dynamic fuzzy knowledge-based
models they have the potential to model a system, simulate sce-
narios and make predictions using qualitative information.
Cognitive maps have previously been used to collect and anal-
yse how fishers view the ecosystem on which they depend on
and to help them formulate management plans (e.g. Prigent et al.,

0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.008
 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122
2008). However, this information has never been used in a simu-
lation model to predict the behaviour of fishers when faced with
different values for the variables which they take into account in
their decision-making. This paper describes an application of Rule-
Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with real-time information collected
onboard fishing vessels. Our aim is to show how to set out a model
of the behaviour of fishers, and to provide examples of how this tool
can be used to simulate and predict fishers’ responses to changes in
the system, using as an example observations from the purse seine
fleet operating off Portugal. Detailed information on Ruled-Based
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can be found in the papers (Carvalho and
Tomé, 2007, 2009).
This paper is structured as follows: We first describe the Por-
tuguese purse seine fishery, how data was collected and how the
RB-FCM model of this fishery was implemented. Then, for valida-
tion purposes the behaviour of this fleet is simulated over a period
of one year in a reference scenario. Also, the capacity of the fitted
model to predict fleet behaviour faced with an increase in the mar-
ket value of fish and a decrease in the overall abundance of fish
is tested. Finally, results and the usefulness of this framework for
management purposes are discussed.
1.1. Purse seine fishery
The Portuguese purse seine fishery was chosen as an example
of application because it is the country’s most important fishery
in terms of landings. The fleet consists of about 135 old medium
size vessels (mean age 36 years; mean total length 20 m) equipped
with 100–500 hp motors that operate with large nets (up to 1000 m
long and 120 m deep) (Parente, 2001; Stratoudakis and Marçalo,
2002). The average annual catch has been in the order of 80,000 t
composed mainly of sardine (Sardina pilchardus), which accounts
for 70% of total landings. Other pelagic fish landed include horse
mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), Spanish mackerel (Scomber col-
ias), Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) and anchovy (Engraulis
encrasicolus) (DGPA, 2009).
Purse seine fishing activity takes place within the coastal waters
of the continental shelf, mainly below the 100 m depth contour
(Parente, 2000; Stratoudakis and Marçalo, 2002). Fishing areas
rarely extend beyond one degree of latitude to the north or to the
south of the home port, although they can vary considerably from
one day to another. As fishing is usually close to the home port,
this involves short (daily) trips where the net is usually set once
or twice, at sunset or at sunrise. Purse seine fishing activity can
be divided into three main stages: steaming, searching and fish-
ing. The steaming stage corresponds to the time spent navigating
to and from the fishing area. Purse seining is mostly dependent on
the detection and location of fish schools by hydro-acoustic instru-
ments (echo-sounder and sonar), thus a large part of a fishing trip
is spent searching for fish aggregated in dense shoals. This cor-
responds to the searching stage. Once schools of pelagic fish are
detected, large nets are set rapidly, with the help of an auxiliary
boat, and hauled in a largely manual operation involving all mem-
bers of the crew. This stage is called the fishing stage. After this
stage, and depending on several factors, such as the species caught,
the quantity caught or the time of day, the skipper decides either
to continue searching for other fish readings (if he is not satisfied
with the catch and has time available) or to return immediately to
port to land and sell the fish caught.
Purse seine vessels perform a minimum of five trips per week
except if (i) prevented by the weather, (ii) repairs are needed, (iii)
there is a shortage of fishermen or (iv) the expected profit is not
attractive (i.e., the price of petrol is too high, the price of fish too low
or a combination of both). On some occasions, when fishing close to
port or when there is a high demand for sardine (e.g. during sum-
mer), some fishing vessels may perform two fishing trips per day.
113
Fishing activity is regulated by national (a maximum of 180 fishing
days per year, weekend stops, daily landing limits established by
the Producer Organizations) and European (minimum landing size)
legislation.
2. Method
2.1. Data collection
Both qualitative and quantitative data for this study was col-
lected during on board observer fieldwork. Fieldwork was carried
out over a four-year period on six different vessels covering a total
of 128 fishing trips. Qualitative data was collected through informal
conversations with the skipper – the chief authority on board who
makes the major decisions – and by observing fishing operations
and inter and intra-ship communication. In the informal conversa-
tions the observer asked several questions such as “Why did you
leave port at this hour? What would make you departure later?
And earlier?” or “In what do you base your decision to set the net?”.
Information was collected on the variables that skippers take into
account when making decisions, the relationships between them
and how these affect their decisions. Additional quantitative data
such as catch (species and quantity in weight) and fishing effort
(departure and arrival times, time spent navigating, searching and
fishing) were also collected.
2.2. Development of the Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map model
Development of the purse seine fishery Rule-Based Fuzzy Cog-
nitive Map model involved several steps: (i) drawing of cognitive
maps, (ii) definition of variables, knowledge base, submodels and
time step, (iii) model implementation in a software application, (iv)
and connection with a stock population dynamic model. After these
steps, calculations involving fuzzy set algebra (Buckley and Eslami,
2002; Carvalho and Tomé, 2009) were used to process fishermen’s
knowledge and to compute the output values corresponding to
the input values. The model was implemented in a user-friendly
interface of a software specially designed to implement RB-FCM
completely written in the Java programming language. The soft-
ware, including source code, and its manual, are freely available on
request.
2.2.1. Drawing cognitive maps
A cognitive map is a qualitative model of how a system works.
The map is based on defined variables and the relationships
between these variables. In this work, the cognitive map was
defined by the researcher’s interpretation of the informal conver-
sations with skippers and of the observations during fishing trips.
First, a list of variables was made. This was done systematically by
starting with one variable, and then listing all of the other variables
that affect that variable. After repeating this for each variable, a
final list of around 40 variables was generated. The variables and
the relationships between them were drawn in a paper. A struc-
tural cognitive map of the system, where one can easily observe
the important variables that affect the system and the relationships
between them, was obtained.
2.2.2. Coding cognitive maps
This next step departures from the structural cognitive map
and involved several stages: (i) definition of variables, (ii) def-
inition of the relationships between concepts, (iii) definition of
submodels and connection between them, (iv) and choice of time
step.
For each variable it was defined the type of concept, the number
of linguistic terms and their membership functions. For instance,
we were interested in modelling the relative change in time of the
114 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122
Fig. 1. Pelagic fishery meta-state system: transitions between meta-states occur when a given Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map reaches the conditions defined and described
by fuzzy or crisp rules. Meta-states are represented by circles and arrows indicate the direction of transitions.
variable “Departure Hour”. Therefore, this variable was defined as a
variation concept and the linguistic terms “high decrease” to “high
increase” were used to describe it. On the other hand, we defined
the variable “Profit” as a level concept because we were interested
in modelling its absolute value. Examples of this variable linguistic
terms are “high”, “moderate” and “low”.
For each relationship, linguistic fuzzy rules and the type of rela-
tion were defined. In other words, skippers provided the researcher
with verbal rules such as “A good catch in a fishing area makes me
go there the next day” or “Even very small catches of anchovy make
good revenue because the price of anchovy in the market is very
high”. The set of rules was then developed to be complete, i.e., all
the linguistic terms relating to the antecedents were referenced in
at least one rule. Hundreds of such rules were defined and after-
wards it was decided how they were going to be implemented,
i.e., as causal, inference or purely mathematical relations. Until a
final version of the system capable of reproducing the dynamics
of the system was obtained rearrangements to the model were
continuously made. All specifications of the final model (concepts,
rules, membership functions, etc.) are recorded in a XML formatted
text file that is read by the simulation software. This file is freely
available on request.
Five submodels were defined, each one representing a different
stage of a fishing trip. Basically, a submodel is a simpler and smaller
RB-FCM modelled as a meta-state (Carvalho and Tomé, 2006;
Carvalho, 2010). Connection between submodels represent transi-
tions from one meta-state to another. Transitions take place when
the RB-FCM reaches certain conditions defined by the modeller that
force the model to enter another meta-state. These conditions are
modelled with fuzzy or crisp rules. Each meta-state is only simu-
lated during the time it is active, being inactive for the rest of the
time. However, concepts from the active meta-state can access all
concepts from the other meta-states. When a meta-state is inactive,
all concepts in it maintain their last computed value. Meta-states
are represented using state-diagrams (Fig. 1).
2.3. The Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map model
A final structural cognitive map was obtained for the system in
question (Fig. 2). This map shows all concepts (Table 1) and rela-
tionships involved. A total of 43 concepts were defined: 18 Levels, 1
Variation, 12 Crisps and 12 External Inputs. It was defined 20 rela-
tionships (8 FIR, 4 FCR, 1 LV and 7 Crisp) made up of more than 700
hundred rules. The system starts in the meta-state At Port, where
skippers decide whether or not to start a fishing trip and, if so, what
is the best departure time. The decision to leave is based on the
concept “Predicted Profit” and on the concept “Restrictions”. Skip-
pers decide where to fish (fishing area) based mainly on the notion
of fish abundance in different grounds from knowledge acquired
on previous trips (“Last Profit”). Time of departure is then calcu-
lated, based on the distance from homeport to the selected fishing
area and the season to ensure a timely arrival at the fishing area
(the ideal time is consensually around sunset or dawn). As a result,
departure time can change during the year or during the week. For
instance, data collected over the years shows that vessels usually
leave port earlier on Monday.
This meta-state At Port consists of a single Fuzzy Subsystem
(FSS). Carvalho (2001) proposed FSS which are mechanisms used
to model the process of more or less immediate decision-making
by system entities: on a RB-FCM, each iterative step in a chain
decision process (involving several sequentially related concepts)
suffers a delay corresponding to a single iteration; on a FSS, a
 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122 115

Fig. 2. Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the purse seine fishery off Portugal. Rectangles represent Level concepts and ellipses represent Variation concepts. Rectangles
with rounded corners represent Crisp concepts and hexagons represent External Input concepts. Stares represent a fishing operation. Solid rectangles surrounding several
concepts represent a meta-state while dashed rectangles surrounding several concepts represent fuzzy subsystems. Arrowed lines represent Relations between Concepts
(FCR – Fuzzy Causal Relation; FIR – Fuzzy Inference Relation; LV – Level → Variation Relation).

regular sequential fuzzy inference system is used, where such
delays do not exist and all the steps of the decision-making process
are resolved in a single iteration (Carvalho, 2010). Fuzzy Causal
Relations (FCR) were used to calculate the variation in the depar-
ture time since the previous trip. A Level–Variation relationship
(LV) was then used to translate the change in the time of departure
to a specific hour of the day. Other relations used in this meta-state
were simple Fuzzy Inference Relations (FIR).
When a decision to initiate a fishing trip is made, the system
changes to the meta-state Searching: after leaving port, the skip-
per heads in a given direction and begins looking for fish using
the echo sounder (meta-state Searching). Echo-traces are merely
indicative of species and abundance, and can at best be described
qualitatively. The skipper usually qualifies the echo-traces using
linguistic terms such as “Good”, “Moderate” or “Bad” (the sys-
tem also includes a membership function “Null” to represent the
absence of echo-traces) and tries to determine the fish species.
Based on these data and on the fish price, the skipper is able to
make a evaluation of the potential catch (“E-Sounder Info”). The
above reasoning is implemented in the model by a FSS that uses
FIRs. When combined with the current hour and last trip catch, the
FSS result is used to determine whether the search should continue,
the trip should end, or a fishing operation should begin. A FIR is used
to model this decision. The system also takes into account how far
the ship is from homeport in order to use this information on the
return trip.
The model does not explicitly include the spatial location of the
fish schools. While demersal fish assemblages are generally asso-
ciated with certain types of substrate (e.g. Gomes et al., 2001),
typically pelagic fish are more often grouped into single species
shoals, scattered along the water column, given their lower depen-
dency on the substrate for feeding and shelter. Hence, fishing
grounds of the purse-seine activity are not spatially delimited as
are those for bottom-trawl fisheries. Therefore, the distance to port
was modelled in a simplistic way: when the vessel leaves port it
starts heading away from it, and if there is no decision to fish or to
return in the first 5 h of the trip, then the skipper starts the return
trip, although still searching for fish while heading towards port.
The distance to port is the time needed to return at any given time.
The 5 h limit was defined based on observations made onboard.
116 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122

Table 1
List of model variables.

Meta-state and type Variable (number) Description

At Port
External Input
Restrictions (2) 0 if there is a restriction that excludes the possibility of going out to sea, 1 if otherwise
Sunset (5) 0 if very early, 1 if early, 2 if normal, 3 if late, 4 if very late
Monday (2) 0 if it is not Monday, 1 if otherwise
Level
Last Profit (3) 0 if the profit obtained in the last fishing trip was low, 1 if moderate, 2 if high
Latest E-Sounder Info (3) 0 if the qualitative information of the echo-sounder image from the last fishing set was bad, 1 if
moderate, 2 if good
Predicted Profit (3) 0 if the expected profit is low, 1 if moderate, 2 if high
Leave? (2) 0 if no, 1 if otherwise
LHourLeave (4) 0 if it leaves in the afternoon, 1 if at night, 2 if at dawn, 3 if in the morning
Variation
VHourLeave (5) 0 if when compared to the last fishing trip the vessel will leave much earlier, 1 if earlier, 2 if at the
same time, 3 if later, 4 if much later
Searching
Crisp
Distance Number of hours necessary to travel in order to arrive at port
Hour Hour of the day
External Input
Last Trip Price (5) 0 if very low, 1 if low, 2 if moderate, 3 if high, 4 if very high
E-Sounder Mark (4) 0 if the e-sounder mark is null, 1 if low, 2 if moderate, 3 if intense
Species Observed (4) 0 if sardine, 1 if horse mackerel, 2 if Spanish mackerel, 3 if anchovy
Level
Expected Catch (5) 0 if the qualitative information of the expected catch is very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if moderate, 3 if good,
4 if very good
E-Sounder Info (3) 0 if the qualitative information of the echo-sounder image is bad, 1 if moderate, 2 if good
Activity (3) 0 if skipper decides to continue searching, 1 if he decides to set the net, 2 if he decides to return to
port
Last Trip Catch (5) 0 if the catch from the last trip was very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if moderate, 3 if good, 4 if very good

Fishing
Crisp
HEndFishing Hour when fishing activity ended
Slipping Quantity (kg) of fish slipped
CatchQ Anchovy Quantity (kg) of anchovy caught
CatchQ CMackerel Quantity (kg) of Spanish mackerel caught
CatchQ HMackerel Quantity (kg) of horse mackerel caught
CatchQ Sardine Quantity (kg) of sardine caught
Cargo overflow Maximum capacity (kg) of the fishing vessel
External Input
Landing Limit (2) 0 if landing limit (kg) established for a fishing trip is reached, 1 if not
Level
Anchovy Landing (5) 0 if qualitative appreciation of the total landing of anchovy is very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if moderate, 3 if
good, 4 if very good
CMackerel Landing (5) 0 if qualitative appreciation of the total landing of club mackerel is very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if
moderate, 3 if good, 4 if very good
HMackerel Landing (5) 0 if qualitative appreciation of the total landing of horse mackerel is very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if
moderate, 3 if good, 4 if very good
Sardine Landing (5) 0 if qualitative appreciation of the total landing of sardine is very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if moderate, 3 if
good, 4 if very good
Landings (5) 0 if qualitative appreciation of the total of fish landed is very bad, 1 if bad, 2 if moderate, 3 if good,
4 if very good
Satisfaction (3) 0 if the satisfaction level of the skipper is low, 1 if medium, 2 if high

Landing
Crisp
HArrival Hour of arrival at port
HDeparture Hour of departure from port
Duration Duration of a fishing trip
External Input
Gas (5) 0 if price of gas if very low, 1 if low, 2 if moderate, 3 if high, 4 if very high
Price HOM (5) Market value of horse mackerel (euros)
Price PIL (5) Market value of sardine (euros)
Price MAS (5) Market value of Spanish mackerel (euros)
Price ANE (5) Market value of anchovy (euros)
Level
Cost (5) 0 if cost of a fishing trip (only gas) is null, 1 if low, 2 if moderate, 3 if high, 4 if very high
Revenue (5) 0 if revenue obtained in a fishing trip is null, 1 if low, 2 if moderate, 3 if high, 4 if very high
Profit (3) 0 if the profit of the fishing trip is low, 1 if moderate, 2 if high

The meta-state Fishing begins when the skipper decides to set based on echo-traces that give them some information about the
the net. To model a fishing operation, different data types were species and the amount of fish present at sea. Therefore, in the
combined: crisp (non-fuzzy), fuzzy and probabilistic random data. model the skipper decides to set the net based mainly on the exter-
This resulted in the following FSS: skippers decide to set the net nal inputs “Predicted Species” and “E-Sounder Mark”. After the
 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122 117

Table 2
Default values for the parameters of the operational model.

Horse Mackerel Sardine Spanish Mackerel Anchovy

Population size (number) 4.540E+08 5.664E+09 1.408E+09 1.137E+09

Age range (years) 0–11 0–6 0–10 0–2
Length range (cm) 5–39 1–32 1–53 6–18
Maturity ogive
Parameter a 1.109 0.178 3.070 0.693
Parameter b 0.609 0.007 1.120 0.067
Length (cm)–weight (kg) relationship
Parameter a 8.400E−06 9.200E−06 2.710E−06 6.990E+06
Parameter b 2.986 2.980 3.330 2.950
Stock (kg)–recruitment (number) relationship
Parameter a 1.000E+01 2.500E+03 1.050E+01 1.550
Parameter b 2.682E−09 4.700E−10 1.900E−08 3.660E−09
Parameter c 0.700 0.350 0.100 0.070
Nat. mortality 0.150 0.330 0.150 1.200
Min. land. size (cm) 15 11 11 12
TAC (kg) 3.114E+07 – 1.000E+08 4.174E+06
Purse-seiner
Selectivity
Parameter a −7.500 −11.500 −11.500 −7.164
Parameter b 1.500 1.500 1.500 0.928
Catchability 4.000E−03 1.800E−05 7.000E−04 1.000E−03
Fleet capacity (kg) 2.000E+06
Landing limit (kg) 9.730E+05
Market
Prices (euros) 1.29 0.69 0.19 4.87

net is set, the model returns a quantitative amount of fish (“Land-
ing”). Landings are accumulated by species. After each net set, total
landing is evaluated qualitatively (ranging from “Very Bad” to “Very
Good”). This qualitative result (“Landings”) is obtained using a FIR
that combines the qualitative values of each species. Due to restric-
tions on daily landings (“Landing Limit”) a percentage of the catch
may be discarded onboard (“Slipping”). The model uses the qualita-
tive evaluation of landings (“Satisfaction” degree) and the current
time, using a FIR, to simulate the skipper’s decision on whether
to return to port or to continue searching. Each fishing operation
described by the meta-state Fishing lasts roughly 2 h.
When a decision to return to homeport is made, the system
changes to the meta-state Navigation that is used to simulate the
duration of the return trip. This consists of a given number of iter-
ations where only the current hour is changed. The arrival time is
computed based on the time necessary to return to port. Each fish-
ing trip ends in the Landing meta-state: the ship arrives at port,
catches are landed and sold at the auction market, and a balance of
the fishing trip is made. In this meta-state, a simple qualitative eco-
nomic model is used to compute the trip profit or loss. The model
only takes into account variable costs: trip duration and cost of fuel
per hour are used to calculate expenses using a FIR; the qualitative
sale price and the qualitative catch are used to calculate revenue
using a FIR; and finally, a qualitative profit indication is calculated
using a FIR. The model uses the indicative qualitative profit value
as a factor to be taken into account in the next trip.
2.4. The population dynamics model
To simulate feed-back between stock abundances and catches,
the developed cognitive map was connected with a model that rep-
resents the different target species population dynamics. The latter
model mimics the main features of the (i) population dynamics of
four stocks (Trachurus trachurus, Sardina pilchardus, Scomber colias
and Engraulis encrasicolus) exploited by the Portuguese purse seine
fleet, (ii) fishing fleet (e.g., selectivity, catchability, effort, etc.), and
(iii) dynamics of the price of fish. The model is based on three classes
of objects: a first one represents the population of a given fish stock;
another represents the fishing fleet that explores a number of
populations; and a third class that corresponds to the market,
which is used to represent the fluctuation of fish prices (Table 2).
The model includes components for recruitment, growth, natural
mortality, price fluctuation and exploitation by the Portuguese
purse seine fleet whose fishing pattern is in turn modeled by the RB-
FCM model described in the previous section. The next subsections
describe the main features, structure and underlying assumptions
of the population dynamics model. As mentioned before the model
does not include explicitly the spatial location of the fish schools.
2.4.1. Population
A population is characterized by a set of attributes such as stock
name, number of individuals by age-class at the start of the sim-
ulation, range of the age-classes (in years) of the fish population,
range of length-classes (cm) of the fish population, minimum land-
ing size (cm), total allowed catch per year (tonnes), accumulated
landings (kg), number (thousands) of individuals in the popula-
tion by age-class and length-class and parameters for the following
aspects:
Maturity ogive: Maturity ogive of fish is represented by a logistic
function:
1
Mt =
1 + ea−t/b
where Mt is the proportion of mature fish at age t, t is the age in
years, and a and b are parameters.
Inverse age-length key: This is represented by a matrix where
the length-classes are the 1st dimension and age-classes are the
2nd dimension. Each cell gives the proportion of individuals from
a given age-class that are in each length-class.
Length-at-weight: The relation between total length and total
weight conforms to a power function:
W = a × Lb
where W is the total weight in kilograms, L is the total length in cm,
and a and b are parameters.
Recruitment: A Schnute’s stock recruitment curve (Haddon,
2011) was used:
Recruits = a × SSB(1 − b × c × SSB)1 /c
118 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122
where Recruits are the number of recruits that enter the population,
SSB is the spawing stock biomass in kilograms, and a, b and c are
parameters. Recruitment is assumed to occur once a year.
Growth: It was assumed that all individuals in the population
have the same growth rate. Growth is defined by moving individ-
uals, with one year and older, one age ahead. The number of age-0
individuals is calculated using the stock–recruit relation previously
described. Given its age, the new length of each individual is calcu-
lated using the inverse age-length key previously defined. Growth
occurs once a year, in the middle of the year, when recruitment
occurs.
Natural mortality: The natural mortality is assumed constant
over time and adjusted to the frequency that the operation is
applied (e.g. if it is used once a week, natural mortality must be per
week). Natural mortality rate was set to be applied on a monthly
basis.
2.4.2. Fleet
The model assumes there is a single fishing fleet exploiting the
different stocks. The fishing fleet is characterized by the species
exploited by the fleet, total capacity in weight (kg) and landing
limit in weight (kg) and the following attributes:
Catchability: Parameter that determines the availability of the
fish to the fishing fleet.
Gear selectivity: Gear selectivity is described by the following
double logistic function with four parameters:
1
 1
 For validation purposes several indicators related to the skippers’
S= × 1−
1 + ea−t/b 1 + ec−t/d
where S is the vessel’s selectivity-at-age, t is the age in years and a,
b, c, and d are parameters. Selectivity values are then scaled so that
their sum equals one.
Information of the sounder: Two methods were used to mimic the
echo-sounder information of a vessel from the purse seine fleet: one
method simulates the observed species, and the other the observed
shoal density. The observed species is dependent of the relative
abundance of each stock, i.e., the higher the relative abundance
of a specific species the bigger is the probability of observing that
species in the sounder. The perceived shoal density of a particular
species is independent of the overall abundance of species: there
can be big and small shoals at all levels of overall abundance.
Fishing mortality: Or Catch, for the purse seine fleet on a stock by
age and length class is assumed as:
Catch = N × W × r × C × S
where N is the number of fish at age and length, W is the fish weight-
at-age and length, r is a random number, C is the catchability, and S
is the gear selectivity. The random number r comes from a Gamma
distribution with shape parameter ˛ = 1, scale parameter  = 0.5.
2.4.3. Market
The Market is characterized by two attributes: price (euros) and
weight (kg) of each species at the start of the simulation. Whenever
the model is in the meta-state Landing, it uses the following function
to calculate the price at which fish is sold:
Price = a × (a + b) × e−W ×a/c
where W is the total weight of fish landed and a, b and c are param-
eters. This function was used because prices are dependent on
landings (kg), with higher prices being achieved for smaller land-
ings. Parameters were estimated from price and total landings data
for this pelagic fishery from DGPA (2010).
Number of net sets per week
6
4
2
0
Observed Model
Fig. 3. Boxplots comparing the observed number of net sets per week and the results
of the simulation of our reference situation (scenario MOD).
2.5. Model validation and scenario simulations
To validate and better understand the behaviour of our model
under different conditions, three scenarios were simulated. Many
different fishery management relevant scenarios could have been
simulated but first it is necessary to validate the model for man-
agement purposes.
Validation of cognitive maps is made by analyzing how well
they describe reality. For example, if a cognitive map predicts that
fishermen will decrease their fishing effort when there are high
abundances of fish but fisherman are reported to do the oppo-
site, then something is wrong with the development of the model.
simulated decision process were analyzed, namely the simulated
distribution of the number of fishing operations per week, land-
ings per net set and auction price of fish, as well as the relative
frequency of net sets and total landings per year for each species.
The three scenarios were defined as follows:
Scenario MOD The goal of this scenario run is to evaluate the
model fit to observed data, focusing on the behaviour of the purse
seine skippers.
Scenario PRC Since fishermen have recurrent complaints on how
the selling price is obtained – a fish auction that arguably keeps
price lower than it should –, this scenario simulates an increase
in the value of all fish species by multiplying the concept ”Price”
by a factor of two. This is equivalent to a change in the market
regulation implying an overall increase in fish first sale price. All
other parameters are equal to the reference scenario.
Scenario LSS This scenario simulates a likely to occur what-if sit-
uation: an overall decrease in the abundance of all fish species (e.g.
due to overfishing and habitat destruction). This was accomplished
by modifying the initial number-at-age of each species. All other
parameters are equal to the reference scenario.
The effects of fishing policies on the behaviour of fishermen
and/or fleets can take several months or years to be recognized.
On the other hand, skipper decisions are taken on an hourly (or
shorter) basis and fishing trips are short (7–15 h). If an option was
made to model the system on a daily basis, it would not be possi-
ble to model skipper behaviour during fishing trips. Therefore, our
model considered each time step to be 1 h. Although this is a rather
short time step, the model is intended to be used for medium- to
long-term simulations (from a few months to several years). Model
runs were conducted over a simulation period of one-year, which
gives a total of 8640 iterations.
3. Results
The predicted number of net sets per week in the reference sce-
nario (scenario MOD) was in a close agreement with the observed
number of net sets per week (Fig. 3). Although the range of val-
ues is smaller in the reference scenario, both had a median of
 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122 119

1.0 (a) 5e+07 (b)

Data Set
Observed
Model

0.8 4e+07

Total landings (tonnes)

Relative frequency (%)
0.6 3e+07

0.4 2e+07

0.2 1e+07

0.0 0e+00
PIL MAS HOM ANE PIL MAS HOM ANE
Species

Fig. 4. Relative frequency (%) of (a) net sets and (b) total landings (tonnes) per species (PIL – Sardine, MAS – Spanish Mackerel, HOM – Horse mackerel, ANE – Anchovy). Grey
barplots represent the trips observed and white barplots represent the reference situation (scenario MOD).

five fishing operations per week. Relative frequency of net sets
and total landings per species in the reference scenario were
also in agreement with the observed ones (Fig. 4). Despite the
slightly smaller number of net sets for sardine and horse mack-
erel simulated in the reference scenario, total landings for both
these species are very similar with total landings reported for
the purse seine fishery (DGPA, 2010). Relative frequency of nets
sets and total landings for Spanish mackerel are higher in the
reference scenario. Simulated landings per net set in the refer-
ence scenario show higher medians and smaller range of values
than in the observed trips (Fig. 5). The same behaviour occurred
for auction price, except for sardine which exhibited a larger
range of values in the reference scenario. Results for anchovy
are not shown since only one net set occurred in the reference
scenario.
Skippers made a similar number of fishing trips per year across
scenarios (Table 3). When the market value of fish increased in sce-
nario PRC, the evaluation of the echo-traces changed, resulting in
a higher percentage of the linguistic term “Good” for the concept
“E-Sounder Info” (Table 3) when compared with scenario MOD. In
the former scenario profits increased (Table 3), while mean fishing
effort, number and relative frequency of net sets were very similar
with scenario MOD (Table 3 and Fig. 6). In this scenario, sardine
total landings per year decreased while total landings of the other
species increased.
In scenario LSS, in which an overall lower abundance of fish
was simulated, total number of net sets and mean fishing effort
(time spent searching and fishing) increased (Table 3). In this sce-
nario, landings decreased for most species and a higher proportion
of net sets was directed to sardine and horse mackerel (Fig. 6). The

Fig. 5. Boxplots showing landings per net set (tonnes) and (b) auction price (euros) per species. Boxplots on the left represent the trips observed while boxplots on the right
show the simulation results for scenario MOD.
120 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122

1.0 5e+07 (b)

(a) Scenario
MOD
PRC
LSS
0.8 4e+07
Relative frequency (%)

Total landings (tonnes)

0.6 3e+07

0.4 2e+07

0.2 1e+07

0.0 0e+00
PIL MAS HOM ANE PIL MAS HOM ANE
Species

Fig. 6. (a) Relative frequency (%) of net sets and (b) total landings (tonnes) per species (PIL – Sardine, MAS – Spanish Mackerel, HOM – Horse mackerel, ANE – Anchovy) and
scenario. Scenario MOD represents a reference situation, scenario PRC a situation where the prices of fish are higher, and scenario LSS a situation where less abundance of
the four species all year round was simulated.

increase of net sets for horse mackerel led to an increase in landings However, results show that skippers increase their fishing effort
of this species, as opposed to the other species. when overall abundance of fish decreases. First, it becomes harder
to find shoals of fish good enough to set the net to. Second,
skippers have to make more net sets in order to be satisfied as
4. Discussion
catches per net set are smaller, a consequence of the assumptions
of the model. Thus, time spent searching for fish and setting the
Faced with an overall increase in fish market prices, fishers can
net increases considerably. In these circumstances however, horse
decide to reduce fishing effort and have the same profit or maintain
mackerel landings increased relatively to the reference scenario.
the same fishing effort to obtain higher profits. In our model, results
These results are in accordance with the theory of optimal for-
show that skippers maintain fishing effort and make more profit.
aging that states that the diet of a predator is more diverse in a
However, skippers changed their evaluation of the echo sounder
less productive environment (Begon et al., 1990). This suggests that
information: for the same set of the concepts “Predicted Species”
skippers may have a predatory action similar to other top preda-
and “E-Sounder Mark” more combinations of these concepts were
tors, previously described by Begossi (1992), Bertrand et al. (2007)
evaluated as “Good”. These results are similar to those of other
and Mangel and Clark (1988).
fisheries (e.g. Dorn, 1998; Holland and Sutinen, 1999; Salas et al.,
Only three scenarios were simulated. The first, corresponding
2004)
to the observed conditions, was used for validation and parame-
terization purposes. The two others, representing simple situations
likely to occur in the Portuguese purse seine fishery, were intended
Table 3 to analyze how the model behaves to different conditions and to
Total number of trips, net sets, fishing e ort per trip and relative frequency (%) of further validate it. According to data collected in onboard obser-
variables “E-Sounder Info” and “Obtained Profit” for each simulated scenario. Fish- vations, it is possible to say that the presented model is able to
ing effort represents the number of hours spent searching and fishing (mean values
replicate with a reasonably precision the observed behaviour of the
± and standard deviation are presented). Scenario MOD represents a reference sit-
uation, scenario PRC a situation where the prices of fish are higher, and scenario LSS
Portuguese purse seine fleet skippers. The fact that the observed
a situation where less abundance of the four species all year round was simulated. behaviours are the behaviours we would normally expect in these
situations shows the potential of Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Variable Scenario MOD Scenario PRC Scenario LSS
to predict fishers’ behaviour.
Trips 193 193 192 Faced with changes in the management of fisheries and other
Net Sets 179 176 235
fishing conditions (e.g. the limitation of fishing time due to bad
Effort (h) 06.26 ± 04.12 06.23 ± 04.14 10.47 ± 01.67
weather conditions), fishermen develop strategies to maintain
E-Sounder Info (%) their livelihood. These strategies involve each fisherman in an indi-
Bad 0.00 0.00 0.23
Moderate 52.83 03.89 53.64
vidual daily decision-making process that is governed by their
Good 47.17 96.11 46.12 goals and constraints. Several works in which models were devel-
oped to analyze and predict the behaviour of fishermen fail to take
Obtained Profit (%)
Low 49.74 36.41 89.74 into account this individual decision-making process, examining,
Moderate 44.62 46.67 10.26 instead, the behaviour of the fleet as a whole and relying on data
High 01.03 18.97 0.00 only indirectly related to the behaviour of fishermen, such as the
level and placement of fishing effort (Valcic, 2009).
 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122 121

As managers and fishery scientists become increasingly aware of Finally, we consider that this framework can be useful for Man-
the need to understand the behaviour of fishermen when faced with agement Strategies Evaluation (MSE). The model presented here is
new management systems and regulatory schemes, the ability to equivalent to what is usually designated as the operating model
develop models that describe their decision-making processes has (OM). It provides a way of investigating by simulation how fishers
steadily gained importance. Thus, a flexible model that realistically (and consequently fish stocks) will respond to a particular man-
represents the decisions taken by the skippers of fishing vessels in agement strategy before it is applied in practice. As discussed in
response to different variables, can be a useful tool for the study Schnute et al. (2007), this framework possesses a friendly inter-
and testing of different fishery management strategies. This paper face that allows users to draw cognitive maps selecting the type
shows how a key source of data, currently available for many fleets of Concepts and Relationships to use, as well as to change the fish
and fisheries around the world, can be combined with a recently population dynamic model according to their specific fishery and
developed modelling technique for dealing with both quantitative particular context. Therefore, this model can be used by any stake-
and qualitative data. holder, whether it be expert on the subject or not. Moreover, the
Our model uses only on board information to model fishers’ software was written with an object-oriented programming (OOP)
decision-making process. The observer based himself on precise language which gives the code a modular characteristic and facili-
knowledge provided by fishers to decide which variables were to tates possible future upgrades or changes to the model. This means
be included and which were left out of the model. The selected that it is easy to add cognitive maps from other fisheries, different
variables where then defined as fuzzy concepts and knowledge populations dynamics model, or even a management procedure
about the system was translated into fuzzy rule bases. Therefore, module if found necessary or useful. Besides, OOP programming
this modelling approach deals with qualitative information in a “provides rigorous definitions of data structures and associated
more straightforward way than in a purely statistical approach. methods” (Schnute et al., 2007).
Additionally, fishers’ decision making processes may be non-linear An interesting future development of this work is to ask skippers
and difficult to represent by mathematical functions. Also, the to give feed-back on the conceptualization of their decision-making
incorporation of different sources of uncertainty in the simulation process or even ask them to draw their own cognitive map. Com-
in a qualitative way (fuzzy concepts, linguistic terms, etc.) is in bining efforts to build and analyze a RB-FCM model of a fishery can
line with recent views on how to evaluate management strate- promote valuable communication among diverse experts, along
gies (Rochet and Rice, 2009). Nevertheless, RB-FCM also enables with understanding of the system and the limits and possibili-
the uses of quantitative information when needed: e.g. the daily ties of managements. An RB-FCM model can use expert judgment
landing limit, which is used by skippers as a quantitative vari- to bridge gaps allowing available scientific knowledge to be more
able. effectively used in management.
A novelty of this approach is the use of cognitive maps in a
dynamic way. Cognitive maps are used to describe a system but
they usually provide us with a static image of the system in ques- Acknowledgements
tion. Since, RB-FCM include mechanisms to implicitly represent
time (Carvalho and Tomé, 2007, 2009) they have the ability to We thank all skippers that participated voluntarily in this work.
model the evolution of cognitive maps through time. Therefore, This work was undertaken within project FLEETMOD – Mod-
this framework can be used as a simulation model to support the elling and simulation of the behaviour of fishing fleets, funded by
evaluation of management scenarios before management plans Fundação de Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT; PTDC/MAR/66231/2006).
are implemented. On the other hand, by integrating a cognitive The on board observations were made within the EU Data Collec-
map with a population dynamics model, this framework allows tion Regulation discard sampling programme. J.P.C. was partially
us to simulate feed-back loops between fish populations and fish- supported by FCT (INESC-ID multi-annual funding) through the
ery dynamics. This gives the modelling framework the ability to PIDDAC Program funds.
make predictions and, consequently, makes it a potentially use-
ful tool for fishery researchers and managers. RB-FCM can be Appendix A.
useful to address small scale temporal changes in fisheries that
are usually not addressed in other typical models used in fish- Table A1
eries management. Overall, this framework can be a potentially
useful approach to understand and predict fishing behaviour.
This approach can be applied to other areas or fisheries and Table A1
may be extended and linked with other fisheries or fish popula- Fuzzy Inference Relation: fuzzy rules between the antecedents E-Sounder Mark and
tion dynamic models to study the effects and feed-back between Predicted Species with consequent Expected Catch.
changes in fisheries management, stock dynamics and fishing activ- If E-Sounder Mark and Predicted Species then Expected Catch
ities.
Null (0) Sardine (1) Very Bad (0)
Other available approaches for the modelling of human Low (1) Sardine (1) Moderate (2)
behaviour, such as Bayesian Belief Networks, do not allow the exis- Moderate (2) Sardine (1) Good (3)
tence of feed-back loops, which are a very important component of Intense (3) Sardine (1) Very Good (4)
these systems. Therefore they are not suitable for the modelling of Null (0) Horse Mackerel (1) Very Bad (0)
Low (1) Horse Mackerel (1) Moderate (2)
a dynamic system. Also, creating a system of differential equations
Moderate (2) Horse Mackerel (1) Good (3)
to represent a system that is best described by uncertain linguistic Intense (3) Horse Mackerel (1) Very Good (4)
sentences, that includes dozens of variables, several feed-back links Null (0) Spanish Mackerel (2) Very Bad (0)
and maybe non-linear is obviously mathematically not impossible, Low (1) Spanish Mackerel (2) Bad (1)
but would be quite a difficult challenge. Moderate (2) Spanish Mackerel (2) Moderate (2)
Intense (3) Spanish Mackerel (2) Good (3)
More complex scenarios could easily be simulated to better Null (0) Anchovy (3) Very Bad (0)
account for the management issues in the Portuguese purse seine Low (1) Anchovy (3) Good (3)
fishery. However, this would be outside the scope of this paper Moderate (2) Anchovy (3) Very Good (4)
which was intended to validate the presented model and under- Intense (3) Anchovy (3) Very Good (4)
stand how it behaves to different conditions.
122 L. Wise et al. / Ecological Modelling 228 (2012) 112–122
Appendix B. Supplementary Data
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.008.
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