Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Urban Climate
journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/uclim

Nature, the built environment and perennial

flooding in Lagos, Nigeria: The 2012 flood as a case
study
Augustine O. Israel ⁎
Department of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Flooding as a problem often associated with the built urban environ-
Received 19 July 2016 ment is well established. Large scale impervious surfaces reduce the
Received in revised form 29 April 2017 land area available for water to seep into the ground to augment ground
Accepted 29 June 2017
water. But often, flooding is induced or exacerbated by man's interfer-
ence in nature's way of draining its catchments or basins, thereby upset-
ting the balance. This paper examines the recurrent flooding in Lagos
Keywords: with the June 27, 2012 episode as a case study in order to project similar
Flooding
occurrences into the future and determine how interfering with the
Impervious surface
landscape has contributed to this and other flood events. It was noted
Built urban environment
Rainfall that developments along major natural water pathways create bottle-
Landscape necks which may be transmitted upstream along tributaries, especially
Outgoing longwave radiation if those also have been interfered with via development, or waste dump-
ing. Among others, this paper suggests that fixing the city to restore its
ecological balance, and adopting modern technology for surfacing by
utilizing absorbent concrete will restore some sanity to the flooding sit-
uation even in the face of single, high-volume rainfall events.
© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Flooding is a physical problem in many urban cities of the world particularly when rain falls at such a rate that
the rate of accumulation of water at the ground surface is faster than the rate of percolation into underground soil
layers, thereby leaving a huge deficit as run-off at the ground surface. Weather phenomena known to produce

⁎ Department of Environmental Science and Policy, School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Ave., Tampa, FL
33620, USA.
E-mail address: augustine1@mail.usf.edu.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2017.06.009
2212-0955/© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231 219

such high rates of rainfall that inundate the environment include hurricanes (or typhoons), torrential rainfall from
deep tropical thunderstorms, and several days of monsoonal rainfall. But flooding in developing countries appears
to be more problematic because of the disorder and lack of coordination in the development of the urban centers.
According to Pincetl (2012), cities are creations of human free-will. For cities to be realized, it requires the
complete transformation of the environment and ecological processes – the earth is moved and reconfigured,
plants and animals are removed and replaced with buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. So, forests,
grasslands, savannah are replaced with gardens, roads, buildings and parks (Whitford et al., 2001). This
means that the entire landscape is altered by humans in order to erect the cities, or as noted by McGarigal
(2015) “humans are the dominant force of landscape change”. In order to cohabit harmoniously with nature,
cities ought to be built in such a fashion that will cause as little alteration as possible to the landscape – the
age-long mode through which the environment has maintained a balance with itself. If this attitude is main-
tained in the development of new cities or of fixing older ones like Lagos, we will thereby ensure ecological
balance, and reduce the chances of environmental backlash as witnessed through persistent floods.
Across many countries floods account for a significant number of the total of disasters experienced, and
pose grave danger to humans and their property. Nine out of every ten presidential disaster declarations in
the U.S. are associated with flooding (Haeuber and Michener, 1998). In their study of the 1998 flood disaster
on the Yangtze River, China, Zong and Chen (2000) observed that extensive reclamation of the fluvial islands
within the middle basin considerably decreased the natural landscape of the Yangtze basin. This invariably
amounts to encroachment of man on nature's territory and the prize is usually huge.
Persistent flooding in parts of Lagos, a megacity, and Nigeria's largest economic and industrial center has
been attributed to a number of reasons which include, persistent rainfall, frequent release of water from the
dam in the neighboring state of Ogun as a result of heavy or persistent rains, blockage of drainage channels
with municipal waste, construction in floodplains, narrowing of river channels, and intrusion of water from
the Atlantic Ocean during high tides into low-lying areas (Olajuyigbe et al., 2012). However, within the
existing body of literature regarding the persistent flooding in Lagos, the ways and means of harnessing the
fast depleting wetlands, greenways and the natural landscape which form the natural attributes within the
Lagos conurbation for flood control has not been given its rightful place in the dialectics of what works and
what doesn't since flood control measures (especially structures) over the long term are known to fail
(Haeuber and Michener, 1998). This paper is therefore designed to fill this knowledge gap.

Fig. 1. A flood scene after the June 27, 2012 rains in Lagos.
(source: junglejournalist.wordpress.com).
220 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231

The long term (30-year) mean rainfall amount for Ikeja Meteorological synoptic (24-h) station for the en-
tire month of June is 277.6 mm. But on June 27th 2012 the atmosphere discharged a rainfall amount of
216.3 mm within 24 h. Thus 78% of the expected monthly rainfall was delivered in one day. The rate of this
rainfall and the sheer size of water to contend with created the situation in Fig. 1. This kind of situation
takes human suffering to a whole new level since no segment of the population is spared. Those who com-
mute in their own vehicles experience travel times sometimes 10 times higher than normal, while others
who depend on public transportation may walk many miles as transport vehicles become unavailable, or
fares skyrocket for the few that may be available.
This scenario often plays out when high rainfall amounts are received within relatively short time inter-
vals. A situation occurred on July 10, 2011 that received a mention in the literature (Aderogba, 2012a). In
that event 233 mm (158% of the long term monthly rainfall for July of 147.5 mm) fell within 24 h. A little
over a decade earlier, on June 23, 1998, 237.3 mm of rain, representing approximately 86% of the expected
monthly value was discharged in one day. Therefore, we can see a cycle of astronomically high rains that
keeps recurring. This is often an added burden to the normal urban-induced flooding that appears to be a nat-
ural part of the environment.
This paper x-rays the problem of persistent flooding in Lagos metropolis within the context of proper nat-
ural landscape management, using the flooding events accompanying the June 2012 heavy rains in Lagos as a
case study, and then proffers measures that are more long-lasting, enduring and nature-friendly. It hopes that
given the return period of such rain events, retrofitting certain segments of the city will assuage the situation
somewhat, and yield other benefits far beyond mere flood control. This is Part 1 of a two-part paper consid-
ering the role of proper landscape, and wetland management in the control of urban floods. Part 2 will
focus on remote sensing analyses of the wetlands of Lagos – how they have changed over three decades,
and the implications for flood control.

2. The study area

Lagos State is bounded by Latitudes 6° 22′ 7″ & 6° 42′ 36″N; and longitudes 2° 42′ 22″ & 4° 18′ 0″E. Expect-
edly, being a coastal city, many locations of mangrove swamp, and hydromorphic soils can be found; and as
you move away from the coastline red ferralitic soils become visible. It has an equatorial (humid and hot) cli-
mate in which rainfall is observed in varying amounts in all twelve months of the year. Using the climatolog-
ical mean of 1981–2010, the expected yearly cumulative rainfall at the representative station is 1462.9 mm.
There are two dominant wind regimes – the southwest monsoon winds that usher in the rainy season be-
tween March/April to September/October; and the dry, dusty, and hazy northeasterly winds from the Sahara

Fig. 2. Mean monthly rainfall for Lagos using 1981–2010 data.

(Data source: Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NIMET).
 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231
Fig. 3. Outgoing longwave radiation over the West and Central Africa showing the location of Lagos.
(source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/).

221
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A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231
Fig. 4. Google map of Lagos showing the built area and the location of Lagos State in SW Nigeria (Source: Maphill.com). The red dot (Ikeja) is the location of the representative meteorological (rainfall)
station.
 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231
Fig. 5. Google maps of development along natural channels or greenways: a broad greenway delineated in red (a); roads (b); a river, swamps and built area (c); and flooded temporary homes (d), that are
typically found in the area marked in yellow.

223
224 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231

Fig. 6. Unwholesome waste disposal in parts of Lagos.

(Source: www.junglejournalist.wordpress.com & www.naij.com).

Desert that dominate mainly from November to March. However, because of the coastal nature of the area, the
south westerlies often make a quick pushback against the north easterlies to ensure occasional rainfall during
the supposedly dry months, if, and when atmospheric conditions are suitable for such. Some special coastal,
and atmospheric conditions create significant drop in rainfall values during the month of August from that
of June and July as can be seen in Fig. 2. The month is usually marked by elevated wind levels that are relatively
colder both during the day and nighttime hours. It is also much cloudier than the other months, with occasion-
al drizzles especially during daytime.
Fig. 2 was constructed from 30-year long term (1981–2010) monthly means of rainfall. As can be seen,
June presents the first maximum of rains (291.4 mm) while the second occurs in September (193.5 mm).
Even though greater rainfall amounts tend to occur in May (194.2 mm) than July (184.7 mm) (Fig. 2),
greater flood occurrences tend to be observed in July rather than in May. Although this is mainly due to sin-
gle-episode, high-volume rainfall that sometimes occurs in July as witnessed on July 10, 2011, the fact that the
ground is more saturated with rains in July than in May is also a contributory factor. Rains in September are
more evenly spread out over the entire month and do not pose the danger of unprecedented flooding inci-
dents like in June and July.
Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), a measure of cloudiness, is indicative of large-scale convection over
the global tropics (Gruber and Krueger, 1984). In the tropical regions of the earth, low OLR are usually
found in areas covered with high clouds which have low cloud-top temperatures. These clouds are often con-
vective in nature and produce high rainfall amounts (Bayo Omotosho, 1985), although they may also be asso-
ciated with non-convective clouds. So, lower values of OLR in Fig. 3 show areas with a high chance of
convective activities and consequently higher rainfall. Lower values of OLR means that longwave radiation
from the earth are hindered from easy escape into the upper atmosphere by heavier and thicker cloud cover-
age. Fig. 3 shows the map of the OLR over West and Central Africa with the location of Lagos. The map on the
left was generated from long-term data of 33 years (1979–2012), and gives the long-term value of the OLR
over Lagos as approximately 240 W m−2 for the month of June. The map on the right, however, shows that
Lagos had a value lower than 220 W m−2 for the month of June 2012 for which total rainfall volume was
well above the long-term mean. This indicates that more than average cloud coverage was observed in June
2012 and is in agreement with the observed rainfall for that month.
The Lagos urban center of interest is enclosed in the red circle in Fig. 4, with a population of 9,013,534 by
the 2006 census. The whitish part shows the built area while the gray shows the Lagos lagoon, rivers and other
water channels. The greenish areas are either forests or wetlands (swamps and marshy land) which serve as
natural greenways to conduct water and flood down to the lagoon (the right half within the red circle) or di-
rectly into the Atlantic Ocean (the left half).
 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231 225

From the Google satellite maps in Fig. 5, a broad area within the state is visible. Features become even more
visible as we zoom-in into this area (b, c and d). From this vantage point we can see that the area delineated in
red is a natural greenway, or channel to conduct water from the hinterland down to the Lagos lagoon and sub-
sequently into the ocean. But the yellow box shows a built area getting in the way, and acting as obstructions
in conducting heavy surface water quickly and swiftly away into the lagoon. We can also see another catch-
ment to the left of the built area that appears to also be natural greenways that have been interfered with
to various degrees. At every point that these natural passages are obstructed and flood waters build up, the
signals are transmitted upstream elsewhere along the contributing paths within the catchment, thereby cre-
ating nodes of interruptions to free surface water flow. These are particularly witnessed in situations of above
normal rainfall conditions. Such “nodes of interruptions” are often facilitated by unwholesome environmental
practices similar to that depicted in Fig. 6 where the refuse disposal culture of the neighborhood inhabitants
plays a leading role in the flood outcome.
This practice was alluded to in Aderogba (2012a). A quick, and perhaps permanent fix to situations similar
to this will be to dredge the entire passage way and fence off access to such natural channels with high fencing
wires throughout the entire length of the channel.

3. A review of Lagos flooding in the literature

Although flooding in Lagos mega-city, Nigeria, has become a disturbing phenomenon in recent years, there
is however, not a matching deluge of relevant articles in the mainstream and readily accessible peer-reviewed
journals as there are in the local and national tabloids when flooding episodes occur. For instance, only a hand-
ful of articles in such journals viz.; Ezinyi (2011), Ajibade et al. (2013), Braimoh and Onishi (2007), and Oloke
et al. (2013) have addressed peripheral aspects of the flooding issue in Lagos. The focus of these writers was
rather disparate. These range from disaster vulnerability (Ezinyi, 2011) to patterns of vulnerability (Ajibade et
al., 2013); and from flood risk perception (Oloke et al., 2013) to land use changes that may induce environ-
mental problems including flooding (Braimoh and Onishi, 2007).
The focus of Ezinyi (2011) was on reduction of disaster vulnerability in broad terms, including transport-
related, fire, floods, building collapse, oil pipeline explosion, and conflicts in the city of Lagos. The paper sought
to identify why authorities in rapidly growing cities in the developing world do not integrate reduction of the
vulnerability to disaster risk in their development plans. It found out among other things that weak infrastruc-
tural base, faltering institutions and governance, and low level of disaster awareness were the bane. Ajibade

Table 1
The rainfall analysis table for June in Lagos during the study period.

Lagos June cumulative rainfall for 20 years (1995–2014)

Year June rainfall (mm) Year June rainfall (cm) Rank Probability of occurrence, Fa (%) Return period (years)

1995 306.2 1998 61.87 1 2.5 40.0

1996 247.4 2012 47.76 2 7.5 13.3
1997 177.3 2009 42.06 3 12.5 8.0
1998 618.7 2005 39.36 4 17.5 5.7
1999 148.6 2010 39.25 5 22.5 4.4
2000 78.2 2007 36.48 6 27.5 3.6
2001 268.1 2003 32.95 7 32.5 3.1
2002 218 1995 30.62 8 37.5 2.7
2003 329.5 2014 29.17 9 42.5 2.4
2004 211.5 2008 28.7 10 47.5 2.1
2005 393.6 2001 26.81 11 52.5 1.9
2006 264 2006 26.4 12 57.5 1.7
2007 364.8 2011 26.29 13 62.5 1.6
2008 287 1996 24.74 14 67.5 1.5
2009 420.6 2002 21.8 15 72.5 1.4
2010 392.5 2004 21.15 16 77.5 1.3
2011 262.9 1997 17.73 17 82.5 1.2
2012 477.6 1999 14.86 18 87.5 1.1
2013 108 2013 10.8 19 92.5 1.1
2014 291.7 2000 7.82 20 97.5 1.0
226 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231

Table 2
The rainfall analysis table for July in Lagos during the study period.

Lagos July cumulative rainfall for 20 years (1995–2014)

Year July rainfall Year July rainfall July rainfall Rank Probability of occurrence, Fa Return period
(mm) (mm) (cm) (%) (years)

1995 73.8 2011 476.5 47.65 1 2.5 40.0

1996 223.1 2008 454.4 45.44 2 7.5 13.3
1997 266.5 2003 346 34.6 3 12.5 8.0
1998 85.3 2014 325.2 32.52 4 17.5 5.7
1999 52.2 1997 266.5 26.65 5 22.5 4.4
2000 220.7 2007 231.1 23.11 6 27.5 3.6
2001 79.4 2005 225.3 22.53 7 32.5 3.1
2002 106.5 1996 223.1 22.31 8 37.5 2.7
2003 346 2000 220.7 22.07 9 42.5 2.4
2004 94.5 2013 190.8 19.08 10 47.5 2.1
2005 225.3 2012 147.5 14.75 11 52.5 1.9
2006 52.8 2010 137.6 13.76 12 57.5 1.7
2007 231.1 2009 119 11.9 13 62.5 1.6
2008 454.4 2002 106.5 10.65 14 67.5 1.5
2009 119 2004 94.5 9.45 15 72.5 1.4
2010 137.6 1998 85.3 8.53 16 77.5 1.3
2011 476.5 2001 79.4 7.94 17 82.5 1.2
2012 147.5 1995 73.8 7.38 18 87.5 1.1
2013 190.8 2006 52.8 5.28 19 92.5 1.1
2014 325.2 1999 52.2 5.22 20 97.5 1.0

et al. (2013) is also considered peripheral to the deeper subject of flooding since it only looked at patterns of
vulnerability and resilience among women to flood disasters, including that of July 10–11, 2011. Although re-
sults showed that impacts were higher on women in low-income neighborhoods with slower recovery time,
certain predisposing factors were at play, namely the interplay of gender relations and gender roles with
place, employment status, class, and healthcare availability. Braimoh and Onishi (2007) is concerned with
spatial determinants of urban land use change in the city of Lagos between 1984 and 2000 with the result
that different influences were responsible for residential development and industrial/commercial land use.
The research also found that there is need to enforce planning regulations in order to ameliorate the environ-
mental impacts of the urban expansion. From this point, it may then be argued that adhering to planning (and
land use) regulations will produce a modulating effect on the environmental impacts of floods. Discussing
along similar peripheral trajectory on the subject of flooding, Oloke et al. (2013) examined the flood risk per-
ception on residential property in Lagos with findings differing significantly among the study groups.
The subject of flooding on the national scale in Nigeria on the other hand has attracted a preponderance of
peer-reviewed articles on diverse aspects of the problem, and for diverse localities; and studied using diverse
tools like GIS and remote sensing. However, only a few relevant studies will be considered in this work.
Aderogba (2012b) studied flood events in some towns and cities in Nigeria and observed among other factors
that “none conformance to the natural physiographic characteristics of the landscape” are responsible for
flooding. In other words, a flagrant neglect of the natural forms of the land surface in the planning or
retrofitting of our cities can lead to undesirable flooding scenarios. This work is therefore couched within
this theoretical framework. Of all relevant articles accessible to this writer, only Aderogba (2012a) and
Olajuyigbe et al. (2012) have attempted to discuss Lagos flood in great detail. While the study area for
Aderogba (2012a) is the entire conurbation, citing some incidences of flooding particularly the June10–11,
2011, Olajuyigbe et al. (2012) chose a critical segment of the city known for frequent flood disasters (captured
in Fig. 5) in his study. Both writers attempted to offer some insightful solutions. Suggestions by both writers
virtually add up to the same thing though – dredge and re-dredge flood passageways while keeping
obstructing structures out of the way. While these measures are laudable, water passageways that have
been cleared in the past get blocked again and again while temporary shelters often get re-erected as quickly
as they are taken down.
In parts of the Lagos conurbation, portions of swampy land, and waterbodies are often filled with earth in
order to erect buildings (Agboola and Ayanlade, 2016). These are human modifications of the natural flow
 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231 227

regime (Allan et al., 1997; Dunne and Leopold, 1978). In the wake of considerable flooding in the summer of
1993 in the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri River basins, the then President, Bill Clinton instituted a
committee to ascertain how human actions might have aggravated the situation while proffering a solution
(Haeuber and Michener, 1998). Indeed, humans do aggravate, if not totally initiate some of these disasters.
Haeuber and Michener (1998) recommend “a new, more informed kind of flood management” which in-
volves working with the forces of nature instead of trying to exclude them. So, this research leans heavily
on this theoretical framework as a way to manage the persistent flooding in Lagos – a viewpoint that has nei-
ther been aggressively canvassed nor tested.
Other reasons often advanced in the literature for frequent flood disasters in Nigeria include rapid popu-
lation growth, and a high degree of impervious built area (Obeta, 2014), or increased population growth with-
out concomitant economic growth or adequate disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation by relevant
authorities (Ezinyi, 2011). To begin with, population increase in the urban centers is a global trend. According
to Soubbotina (2004, p. 69), urban centers often develop as a natural consequence for the stimulation of eco-
nomic growth, and the world seems to be drifting along this path and not likely to stop. Taylor (1988) sug-
gested that in the face of increasing population, urban and regional planners in Nigeria should develop
policies to control and manage urban development. Perhaps, “manage” is a more appropriate term as several
common factors are often responsible for driving urbanization worldwide. As noted by Paul and Meyer
(2008), the UN Population Division in their 1997 prognosis expects 60% of the world population to be living
in urban areas by the year 2030. Therefore, if rising population and infrastructural development are necessary
to stimulate economic growth then attempting to stymie growth in infrastructure as a control measure for
flood will be counterproductive.
This paper argues that what we need as a first step in the combat against flooding is to understand the dy-
namics of the built environment; that the urban center is a human construct (Pincetl, 2012) arising from the
alteration of the physical landscape; so, the solution lies in understanding the roles we have played in affecting
the existing landscape pattern in the first place, and then retrace our steps in order to redress the situation.
One recurring feature in an urban or built environment is a reduction in the perviousness of the land area
available for infiltration. This leads to a decrease in infiltration and an increase in surface runoff (Paul and
Meyer, 2008; Whitford et al., 2001; Braimoh and Onishi, 2007). In the opinion of Arnold and Gibbons
(1996), impervious surfaces are not only indicators of urbanization but are also contributors to the environ-
mental impacts that urbanization creates. They went further to develop empirical relationships between in-
creases in run-off as functions of percentage increases in impervious surface. From their result, as the
percentage catchment impervious surface cover (ISC) increases to 10–20%, run-off increases two-fold; As
ISC increases to 35–50%, run-off increases three-fold; and as ISC increases 75–100%, surface run-off increased
more than five-fold over forested catchments. It is therefore expected that as impervious surfaces and infra-
structure increase in Lagos, more and more runoff will be generated in the channels and the unbuilt areas, and
we must seek a way of creating a balance with nature since the problem was created by our upsetting the
prior existing balance.
Perhaps there is a lesson that Lagos can learn from the experience of the Everglades, an extensive subtrop-
ical wetland in southern Florida in the United States of America (Dovell, 1947). In the early 1900s a vast por-
tion of this wetland was drained for agriculture and urban development (Ingebritsen et al., 1999) or what may
more appropriately be termed “urban encroachment”. This is because for a long time, wetland ecosystems had
been viewed as systems that have to be drained in order to make way for urban development and ultimately
human progress (Mitsch et al., 2015). Other activities within the region that have altered the natural hydrol-
ogy of the region include the construction of levees and channels (Chimney and Goforth, 2001). Having real-
ized the damage done to the Everglades over the years both the Federal and Florida state governments
embarked on a major ecosystem restoration of the Everglades, which is about half of the original
(Ingebritsen et al., 1999). The lesson from this is that any major interference in the natural function of a sys-
tem has dire consequences – a backlash. So, to restore the natural hydrology of Lagos there has to be a 100%
halt to further development in and around areas identifiable as natural waterways or greenways.

4. Data and methodology

Twenty-year rainfall data (1995–2014), obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency was used for
computations of flood return period. The highest single-day rains with apparently extraordinary flooding
228 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231

problems within this dataset of 1995–2014 (Tables 1 & 2) occurred during the months of June and July (June
23, 1998; July 10, 2011; and June 27, 2012).
Precipitation or rainfall is the single strongest variable that drives the hydrological processes (Ward and
Trimble, 2003). In planning against flood risk, it becomes necessary to determine the probability of recurrence
of previously observed rainfall episodes in any particular year, or the expected return period of rainfall that
will reach or exceed the stated amount. The Hazen method of rainfall frequency analysis was used in this
study (see Hazen, 1930). It is a popular method in the study of flood risk assessments. For instance, Urías et
al. (2007) used it to determine the relationship between precipitation and return periods in assessing flood
risk in Juarez, Mexico. Microsoft excel was used to compute Tables 1 and 2. The first two columns of Table
1 show the years and the corresponding total rainfall amount (mm) for June. Columns 4 and 5 show the rain-
fall amounts (cm), and the rank of the rainfall values respectively, having been sorted in a descending order of
magnitude from the largest to the lowest. To compute the probability of occurrence, Fa (%), the relationship is
given as:

Fa ð%Þ ¼ 100ð2n−1Þ=2y

where n = the rank of each event and y = the total number of events (20).
The Return Period, T (years) is then computed using the relationship:

T ¼ 100=Fa:

This means that once in every T years, Lagos will have the corresponding rainfall amount (see Tables 1 & 2)
in Section 5.

5. Results and discussions

Tables 1 and 2 show the results of the return period for the various rainfall amounts observed.
From Table 1, the rainfall for June 2012 of which the 216.3 mm on the 27th was a huge contributor, has a
return period of 13.3 years and a corresponding probability of 2.5%. This means that the total rain amount of
47.76 cm has a very high chance (or certain) of occurring again in 13.3 years while the probability that the
event will be equaled or exceeded in any one year is 2.5%. This does not mean, though, that the event may
not occur before 13.3 years.
In Table 2, the highest rain amount in July (47.65 cm) has a return period of 40 years with a probability of
occurring in any particular year of 2.5%. Again, this does not preclude rainfall of this amount from falling before
the 40-year expected return; and lower rainfall totals may equally generate flooding of varying degrees. Given
the flooding scenario witnessed in 2012, the city planners must be armed with the knowledge about these re-
peated cycles of rain in the city, the peculiar nature of its urban environment, and determine to follow through
with measures to forestall a recurrence in the short term and long term.
It is to be noted that recurrent flooding appears to be a permanent feature within the urban settlement
where poor planning has been virtually woven into the fabric of the cities. This is because heavy rains natu-
rally produce heavy run-offs; and buildings, roads, and other paved surfaces and infrastructure reduce the
available land area, and even prevent flood water from percolating into the ground. In such cases the available
drainage system becomes overwhelmed and cannot handle the sheer volume of water on the ground surface
(Satterthwaite, 2008). Again, when open grounds, or parks that should serve as temporary resting places for
storm water is assigned for the wrong land use; for instance, as dump sites, or as large open plots of land used
by artisans for fixing, or tearing up unserviceable vehicles, it becomes a problem for the urban environment.
Good governance requires that proper drainage be a part of a city's planning, and its very structure or frame-
work. Proper land use management incorporates incremental adjustment to cater for increased flood water
control in the future years. In other words, the anticipated growth in the conurbation should be accounted
for in flood planning. In the face of climate change, the threat of sea level rise, heavier and more frequent
and prolonged rains which also impact river flows are ever present, with the attendant increased flood
risks. In most urban cities of the world, including Lagos, the urban poor live in the most environmentally vul-
nerable parts of the city – floodplains, or other low-lying areas at higher risk of flooding.
 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231 229

Lagos has a rich wetland ecosystem that has been underutilized. Erasing vast portions of its wetlands in
order to further expand the megacity is gross underutilization. According to Mitsch et al. (2015) “wetlands
are among the most valuable ecosystem on the planet”, and have continued to be cited as the most valuable
parts of our landscape in assessing ecosystem services. The benefits that humans derive from ecosystems have
been termed “ecosystem services” (Jenkins et al., 2010). These include, but not limited to their mitigation of
flood and drought, remarkable ability to cleanse polluted waters, the protection of shorelines, recharging
ground water aquifers, support of an extensive food chain and a rich biodiversity, etc. (Daily, 1997; Boyd
and Banzhaf, 2007; Evans et al., 1993). It is also noted as an extraordinary ecosystem with great potentials
for carbon sequestration as a tool against climate change. These natural urban ecosystems also contribute
to the quality of life by improving the urban air quality (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). In fact, the Millen-
nium Ecosystem Assessment (Board, 2005) focuses on how ecosystem services have affected humans in the
past, and how changes in ecosystems may affect humans in future years. Ecosystem services have been
deemed so valuable that some researchers have quantified their value in monetary (dollar) terms
(Costanza et al., 1997; Mitsch et al., 2015; Jenkins et al., 2010). Ecosystem services have not been given enough
weight in policy decisions because they are not captured in markets or quantified adequately in terms that can
be compared with economic services (Costanza et al., 1997; Evans et al., 1993). By the same token the Lagos
wetland ecosystem has not received commensurate attention in the eyes of the state policy makers.
Results obtained from the data suggest that at least once in a little over a decade, single-value rainfall
amounts well over 50% of the monthly values occur in June or July. This is enough time for long term plan
against a recurrence of the event. This does not however nullify the recurrence after a shorter time frame as
we witnessed in 2011 (July 10), and 2012 (June 27). Planning ahead, and taking immediate action has become
necessary in the face of unfavorable climate change prognostic scenarios. According to a very recent research
(Kopp et al., 2016), irrespective of the amount of carbon dioxide emitted, the rise in sea level in the 21st cen-
tury will greatly outstrip that seen in the 1900s. The implication of this for Lagos, a coastal city, is that there
will be intrusion of the salty ocean water into the built area with the increased risk of contaminating ground
water that many depend on. Another consequence of this is that water within the catchment cannot easily
drain into the ocean and flooding will be exacerbated.
According to IPCC report on Sea Level Change (see https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/
WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf), regional sea level changes may differ from the global average. Ekanade et al.
(2011) conclude that under a sea level rise scenario, a large part of the state will be submerged while areas not
submerged will experience increased flooding. This is also echoed somewhat by Agboola and Ayanlade (2016)
in their assessment of land use/land cover change of a coastal suburb of the State under sea level rise situation.

6. Concluding remarks

This paper has analyzed the Lagos megacity environment in the context of its constant flooding incidents.
The paper observes that the flood situation is aggravated by developments within fairly large natural green-
ways and channels designed by nature to drain the entire catchment into the sea. Policy decisions, and land
use permitting that allows the development in wetlands, whether for business or residential purposes is
flawed. Housing in informal developments should never be encouraged. The families that have lived in
these settlements for generations may view any policy aimed at ejecting them as wicked. However, this ap-
pears to be the best thing to do in such situations for the greater good of the greater number of people.
Land use planning and management is one way to reduce vulnerability to disasters (Burby, 1998). Part of
that planning may include the retrofitting of greenways and natural channels to a semblance of the original
landscape. This way we will be reconciling the human society with nature (Naveh, 1995). With regards to
Lagos, this paper does not recommend that all built areas near wetlands within the megacity be pulled
down; however, identified pathways must be visibly marked out using dikes, levees or where necessary
fenced off with wires to eliminate waste dumping into flood channels. Existing structures within the flood
passageways should either be taken down (in the case of makeshift houses) or retrofitted (in the case of
more solid high-rise buildings) so that there are no ground floors. This ensures that they are kept above
flood heights. More expansive places within flood plains that are urban slums (Like Makoko in the Yaba
area) should be converted to open spaces or urban forests. Urban forests and trees are known to reduce sur-
face run-off (Tyrväinen et al., 2005); and research results have shown that as green space provision increases,
rainwater runoff decreases (Whitford et al., 2001).
230 A.O. Israel / Urban Climate 21 (2017) 218–231

Having discussed the immense benefits of wetlands which include carbon sequestration (thereby mitigat-
ing greenhouse gas, GHG) all privately-owned wetlands should be acquired (complete buyout, or with paid
royalties) by the government and maximally utilized to provide ecosystem benefits. This approach has
been adopted in other places to deal with environmental issues. For instance, the New Jersey (USA) “Blue
Acres Buyout Program” in which the State of New Jersey, through the Department of Environmental Protec-
tion (DEP), offered to buy up homes damaged by Superstorm Sandy, and other properties in flood-prone
areas, demolish them, and then turn them into open spaces for conservation purposes, and accessible to the
public for recreation (please see http://www.nj.gov/dep/greenacres/pdf/faqs-blueacres.pdf).
The role of impervious surfaces as chief contributors to high volume surface water has featured promi-
nently in most of the articles presented in this work. This means that if, and when such technology can be de-
veloped that allows rain water to percolate as quickly as possible, thereby reducing its residence time on the
ground surface, then this will go a long way in tempering the menace of flooding in some places. Fortunately,
the technology is already available that can create highly permeable concrete surfaces that are permeable to
even 100-year storm water (see http://www.tarmac.com/solutions/readymix/topmix-permeable/). Such
technology gives hope for controlling flood, especially in the newly built areas, and possibly in fixing parts
of the old areas. It is then hoped that over time this will return much of the state to a balance with nature,
and give it a pride of place among modern megacities.

Acknowledgements

Sincere thanks are due to Professor Ambe Njoh, whose vibrant graduate classroom discussions in Urban
Planning inspired this work.

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