Chapter 2

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND STUDIES

            For further understanding of the study, the researchers made use of different

reading materials related to the issues leading to the necessity of flood mitigating. These

materials such as books, magazines, newspapers, thesis and other web articles are

essential in broadening the knowledge of the researchers. These will also guide the

researchers to achieve their target objectives by getting ideas on other related studies

and make improvements as possible.

FLOOD AND FLOODING

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service

Administration (PAGASA) defines “flood” as an abnormal progressive rise in the water

level of a stream that may result in the overflowing of water on its normal confines of the

stream with the subsequent inundation of areas which are not normally submerge.

The number of flood events has increased significantly all around the world over

the last three decades. While the number of fatalities per flood event exhibited an almost

constant trend during the 1980s and 1990s, it has markedly decreased since the year

2000 despite the significant increase in the number of floods (Parker et al., 2007). A new

study published in Hydrological Sciences Journal examines the key reasons for

increasing frequency and severity of floods. But the main causes of changes in flood risk

are climatic changes in land use and other anthropogenic interventions.

 The most common anthropogenic effects are: urban growth, the partial or total

cover of torrent banks, watercourse alignment, improperly dimensioned bridges,

deforestation and the consequent erosion, the construction of roads or other structures

across the watercourse, subsidence observed in flat regions due to anthropogenic

interventions such as over pumping, and, finally, the change or deviation of the

watercourse (Green et al., 2000).

According to Taylor & Francis, authors of an article entitled Changing

Landscapes Not Global Warming To Blame for Increased Flood Risk (January 2014) on

ScienceDaily, studies have shown that there is a clear link between population density

and flooding. Currently 800 million humans are living in areas vulnerable to flooding.

This is predicted to rise by a further 140 million during 21st Century as we see continued

economic and population growth. At the same time reduction of woodland, changing

river flow and the urbanization of flood plains will increase flood risk in many regions.

Urban flooding is often caused by rainfall overwhelming the local drainage

capacity. The risk of flooding is defined as a function of both the probability of a flood

occurrence and its impacts. In urban areas, the impacts caused by floods can be very

high because the areas affected are densely populated and contain vital infrastructure.

Continuing development in flood-prone areas increases the risk, and urban flooding is

also expected to occur more often due to future climate change. Therefore, to define and

estimate the hazard degree for people and property in urban areas is an important

component of good flood risk management, and usually consists of modelling the

hydrodynamic characteristics of urban floods and estimating the flood risk to people and

property. (Xial et al., 2011)

FLOOD HAZARDS IN THE PHILIPPINES

The Philippines is a typhoon-prone area. From 1948 to 1991, 869 typhoons have

passed the Philippine area of responsibility (Weather Branch-PAGASA, 1992). The

country experiences an average of 19.6 typhoons a year in its area of responsibility.

These meteorological events may have a lower frequency during the El Nino and

Southern Oscillation Periods, as many parts of the country experience severe drought in

these intervals (Jose, 1993). The normal high incidence of typhoons brings in heavy

rains when it coincides with the southwest monsoon occurrence in the months of June to

September. Storm surges accompany tropical depressions and cause extreme flood

occurrences. They devastate many low-lying coastal areas. The flood plains of Agno,

Agusan, Bicol, Cagayan, Cotabato, Pampanga and Panay river systems are highly

susceptible to severe flooding (ADB, 1994). Low-lying agriculturally developed and

economically productive lands in Bicol, Central Luzon, Eastern Mindanao, Central

Samar and Northern Samar regions are also frequently devastated by extreme flooding

events (Benson, 1997).

One notable disaster was recorded last November 8, 2013. Super Typhoon

Yolanda (international codename Haiyan) brought strong winds and whipped up storm

surges that battered parts of Eastern Visayas. Yolanda affected 1,473,251 families, with

a casualty count of 6,300, thus considered as one of the most catastrophic cyclones of

the world. Flooding hit the city of Tacloban, Leyte as the world's strongest typhoon

surged through the city, damaging property and inundating homes with water.

FLOOD, A PROBLEM IN BULACAN

The Chairman of the Committee on Environment Protection and Committee on

Labor and Employment, Felix “Toti” Ople narrated that in 2011, as Typhoon Pedring

came, it was the major problem that the province of Bulacan faced. Because of the
heavy rains and strong winds that it brought, floods in different areas in the province

occurred.

This past August 2012, the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) did the same

thing. Through its continues rains, a wide area in the province had been affected by the

flood. The city of Malolos which was not regularly distressed by flood shockingly became

one of the severely destructed areas in Bulacan at that time.

According to Ople, the flood caused by Pedring last year was totally different to

the flood caused by the monsoon. But during the surge of the monsoon, it was totally

spread-out in different towns and cities in the province of Bulacan.

But then, Gov. Willy Alvarado, Vice Gov. Daniel Fernando and other board

members went to the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council

(PDRRMC) of Bulacan to monitor the release of water dams, ordering not to discharge

water spontaneously. With that, the local government was able to control the dam

releases but then flood has not been prevented because of incessant heavy rainfall.

According to PDRRMC, about 37 barangays were critically affected, experiencing

a 1-2 ft high level of flood. In which, 7,050 families had been affected, particularly a total

of 35,106 people. (Sta. Ana, 2012)

BENEFIT AND DRAWBACK

In contrast, Walker stated that floods may somehow bring many benefits. They

maintain river channels, replenish nutrient-rich sediments on floodplains and support the

diversity of plants and animals in our river ecosystems.

 He also added that floods are essential for maintaining some of our most

cherished wildlife areas. They become a threat only when we are vulnerable to their

effects, and our vulnerability is increasing as we build on floodplains and our urban

areas continue to grow. Modern life can also increase the likelihood of flooding - for

example, when we strip vegetation or concrete over front gardens, we change the rate at

which rain reaches our rivers. Meanwhile our wetlands and other landscapes that act as

natural flood defenses are becoming more managed and developed.

However, Liang obversely stated in that, world-wide, floods are likely to become

increasingly severe and more frequent. Therefore, flood disasters should attract more

attention, and more work is needed on flood risk assessment and mitigation.

FLOOD MITIGATION STRATEGIES

According to Talchabhadel and Shakya, structural solutions are mainly

preventative and focusing on curtailing the magnitude of floods using different methods

such as dams, embankment, compound channels, widening of river beds, etc. However,

these solutions have adverse environmental, hydrologic, ecologic or economic

consequences. The non-structural mitigating measure places people away from flood.

This method is designed to reduce the impact of flooding to society and

economy. Rainfall runoff modelling for the flood forecasting and warning schemes is a

non-structural hydrologic method for mitigating flood damages.

FLOOD HAZARDS AND HAZARD MAPS

Hazards are forever a threat but can be managed if we learn the lessons from

past disasters.

Over the years, it has become clear that effective disaster prevention and

mitigation entails two important aspects.  The first is the delivery of accurate, readily

accessible, understandable and timely warnings.  It is the responsibility of government

and should be executed using the best science and advanced tools. The second entails

the appropriate response of people when they are given a warning. This is the more

difficult part because it requires the long-term involvement of everyone and not when it’s

too late -people must educate themselves on the different hazards, know the dangers in

their neighborhood and practice evacuation drills. These long-term preparations need to

be accompanied by reliable hazard maps that depict scenarios of hazards in a

community. It is imperative that the maps be accurate because all plans, even if well

executed, will fail if they are wrong.

Inaccurate maps may have cost the lives of thousands of Filipinos in the past. 

Take for example the 2012 Barangay Andap disaster in New Bataan, Compostela Valley

where 566 people heeded warnings by seeking refuge in an evacuation center.  Instead

of being relocated to a safe shelter, the evacuation center became their grave when

debris flows overwhelmed the site. Another example is the Yolanda disaster.

Notwithstanding the shortcomings of the storm surge warnings, there were people who

dutifully trooped to evacuation centers in Tacloban where they met their untimely death.

Seventy percent of evacuation centers in Tacloban were inundated by storm surges

which only tell us that the storm surge hazard maps were erroneous if they were used in

the city’s disaster mitigation plan.  Otherwise, the evacuation centers would not have

been located in those places.

 In September 2015, researchers at the University of Bristol created a global flood

hazard model that, until now, helps developing countries to reduce the risks posed by

flooding. Lead author of the paper Chris Sampson from Bristol's School of Geographical

Sciences said: "Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to

date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by

wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the

developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for

information about flood hazard in their territories. Because many such territories do not

have the data, budget or expertise to create their own bespoke flood models, a global

solution such as our flood model is required." But the models can't show exactly where

the rain will accumulate and cause problems.

FLOOD MODELS

Because of increasing level of today’s technology, flood models can also be done

now. The term ‘flood model’ means a digital model in raster form where cell values

correspond to river levels during the flood. From the SMTFCMMS-Project 3 of the

Research Laboratory for Applied Geodesy and Space Technology (AGST Lab) of the

Training Center for Applied Geodesy and Photogrammetry, University of the Philippines

Diliman it was stated that the flood model can also be used to reconstruct past flood

events. Reconstructing flood events caused by heavy/torrential rains can assist in

understanding how flooding occurs, and in mapping areas that were flooded. If an area

has been flooded before, it more likely that it will be flooded again in the near future. If

this is known through flood reconstruction, then it is easy to pinpoint which areas are to

be avoided should heavy/torrential rains will pour over the area.

 Researchers also added another application of the flood model, it is to generate

flood hazard maps – maps that categorizes flood hazard based on depth of water (low:

less than 0.5 m; medium: greater than or equal to 0.5 m but less than 1.5 m.; high:

greater than or equal to 1.5 m). This can be done by simulating the effects of

hypothetical, extreme rainfall events (e.g., rainfall events with different return periods) to

the generation of runoff in upstream watersheds, and then determining the behavior of

water coming from the upstream watershed as it enters the main river, including its

overflow from the banks towards the flood plain.

For near-real time applications, the flood model can also be used to generate the

latest flood inundation extent by using actual (recorded) water level from monitoring

stations instead of discharge data simulated by the watershed hydrologic model.

Flood wave propagation along rivers is significantly influenced by the storage

capacity of floodplain and bottom valley. In order to correctly reproduce the reduction of

the peak discharge along the water course, the inundation of floodplains must be

carefully simulated. In order to map the flood prone areas, it is common practice to apply

1D mathematical models to simulate the propagation of flood waves. This simplification

results acceptable if the width of the floodplain is comparable with the main channel

width, but if the bottom valley is very wide, a simulation by means of a 2D mathematical

model could be more appropriate. However, the application along the water course (30-

40-100km long) of a fully 2D model could result too demanding from viewpoints of both

data collection, since rarely digital elevation models (DEM) are available with sufficient

detail to reproduce river bathymetry, and computational effort. In this case a coupled

simulation of both 1D and 2D models seems useful. (Burguete et al, 2009)

This increased awareness to floods has led to the UK government examining the

issues and instigating renewed attention to planning and research. Base on the study of

Bates and the others (A Framework for Modelling Flood Inundation, 2004), this has led
to questioning of the planning process that has allowed development on the flood plain

and the setting up of a Foresight project on Flood and Coastal Defense (DTI 2004) to

examine scenarios or changing flood risk over the next 30-100 years The range of

research priority areas (RPAs) within this consortium reflects the diversity of research

required to address flooding problems (Land Use Management, Real-Time Flood

Forecasting, Infrastructure, Whole Systems Modelling, Urban Flood Management, etc.).

The Whole Systems Modelling RPA is intended as a unifying theme that other RPAs

feed into. Bates also added that, in turn the WSM RPA should take into account other

RPAs particularly that on Risk and Uncertainty as it is now widely recognized that all

modelling has an uncertainty inherent in it due to uncertainties in parameter estimation,

lack of process representation and model structural error. These uncertainties must be

reflected in modelling outputs so that we no longer assume that a predicted flood outline

is a definitive statement of which properties will or will not flood.

Project Team of Caraga State Univeristy’s Flood Hazard Mapping developed the

flood model into two components. The first component deals with the upstream

watershed hydrology, wherein a hydrological model is developed to estimate how much

runoff is produced during a rainfall event. For this component, HEC HMS was used. The

second component deals with the river and flood plain hydraulics which aims to

determine the behavior of water coming from the upstream watershed as it enters the

main river and travels downstream towards the sea. With these two components

combined, a flood model is developed and can be used in a variety of applications: as a

flood forecasting tool, to reconstruct past flood events, to generate flood hazard maps,

and to generate flood inundation information in near real-time. For this component, HEC

RAS was used.

FLOOD INUNDATION PROGRAM

Bates and de Roo developed a new two-dimensional flood inundation program

which they have improved over the years, creating a blueprint that has saved industry

years of developer time. Before they developed this program, it would have been far too

expensive and taken too many computer resources to predict where flooding would

occur.

The flood inundation program is being developed further for the Environment

Agency's National Flood Risk Analysis, to help them decide where to invest in flood

management and defense measures to get the most benefit. It is also being used by

reinsurers, who insure the insurance companies against major risk and losses.

Santillan and the rest of the research team presented on the 33rd Asian

Conference on Remote Sensing a research “Near-Real Time Flood Extent Monitoring in

Marikina River”. In this study, researchers concluded that the simulated water level by

the HEC RAS model has satisfactory performance, with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency

of 0.88. They also added that the system is useful especially if one wanted to know the

current extent of flooding along the river and the areas that are presently flooded.

Pati et. al (December 2014) studied the vulnerability to flooding of the towns of

Mabitac and Santa Maria, Laguna with the use of flood simulation. The flood simulation

using HEC-RAS model was used to predict the spatial extent and depth of flood events.

Based on the interviews with the residents, the flood depths during the past flood events

in many areas of the two towns coincided with the simulated flood depths.

DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL

Flood related scientific and community-based data are rarely systematically

collected and analysed in the Philippines. Over the last decades the Pagsangaan River

Basin, Leyte, has experienced several flood events. However, documentation describing
flood characteristics such as extent, duration or height of these floods are close to non-

existing. To address this issue, computerized flood modelling was used to reproduce

past events where there was data available for at least partial calibration and validation.

The model was also used to provide scenario-based predictions based on A1Bclimate

change assumptions for the area.

The most important input for flood modelling is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

of the river basin. No accurate topographic maps or Light Detection And Ranging

(LIDAR)-generated data are available for the Pagsangaan River. Therefore, the

Advanced Space borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global

Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), Version 1, was chosen as the DEM. Although the

horizontal spatial resolution of 30mis rather desirable, it contains substantial vertical

errors. These were identified, different correction methods were tested and the resulting

DEM was used for flood modelling.

The above-mentioned data were combined with cross-sections at various

strategic locations of the river network, meteorological records, river water level, and

current velocity to develop the 1D-2D flood model. SOBEK was used as modelling

software to create different rainfall scenarios, including historic flooding events. Due to

the lack of scientific data for the verification of the model quality, interviews with local

stakeholders served as the gauge to judge the quality of the generated flood maps.

According to interviewees, the model reflects reality more accurately than previously

available flood maps.

The resulting flood maps are now used by the operations centre of a local flood

early warning system for warnings and evacuation alerts. Furthermore, these maps can

serve as a basis to identify flood hazard areas for spatial land use planning purposes.
HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS

In the Philippines, the Department of Public Works and Highway-Japan

International Cooperation Assistance used the Hydrologic Engineering Center

Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) software for hydrograph simulation. The

hydrograph served as input in modelling the effects of flood control facilities to reduce

the discharge at the downstream reaches. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River

Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was also used to simulate flooding due to two tropical

storms in the Lower Tar Sub-basins in North Carolina (Abshire 2012). The HECRAS and

HEC-HMS models with ArcView were used for hydrologic risk management for

Romagna River Basins (Pistocchi and Mazzoli 2002).

A study that helps understand how the flood events interact with the socio-

economic conditions such as flood vulnerability analysis is an indispensable method in

planning and managing future activities as well as in developing contingency plans in

times of an emergency (Bizimana and Schilling 2010). Hence, the study entitled

Vulnerability to Flooding of the Towns of Mabitac and Santa Maria, Laguna, Philippines

was conducted to assess the impact of extreme flood events using Geographic

Information System (GIS)-hazard mapping and vulnerability-resilience indicators.

FLOOD MANAGEMENT

Kourgialas et al, (2011) noted that total flood prevention is not feasible, while the

evaluation and management of future floods can be carried out. Their case study entitled

Flood Management and A GIS Modelling Method to Assess Flood-Hazard Areas,

presents a plan for a viable flood preparedness which consists of two main interlinked

components: (a) a proper flood management strategy; and (b) the determination of the

hazardous areas in the region of interest.