M.

Zakir Hossain Khan

Coordinator-CFGP, TIB

October 10, 2012

Extreme
 …iscaused by…
 …global
Impacts warming
include….
Weather events
Drought
Sea Flooding
Level Rises
 “the state parties should protect the climate system on the basis of
equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated
responsibilities” - Article 3, UNFCCC; Clause 1, Copenhagen Accord
 In 1997, Kyoto Protocol signed but will expire in December 2012, then
???
 Increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius-
COP15
 The 13 conf of UNFCCC held in Bali in December 2007, launched the
Bali Action Plan - Bangladesh emphasized the importance of specific
interventions to ensure that the people have secure access to food,
water, energy and livelihoods.
 Britain to cut of 80% emissions by 2050
10/7/2012 3
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global
temperatures will rise between 1.8 C and 4.0 C by the last decade of the 21st century
 Japan, 5th-largest emitter, to cut 25% emissions by 2020 compared to1990 level
(thru emissions trading, introduce low-energy technologies in cars)
 Joint commit. of Developed countries USD 100 bln/year by 2020 – Sec.8, COP15
Accord
 The Government of Bangladesh's Vision is to eradicate poverty and achieve
economic and social well-being for its entire people.

10/7/2012 4
  Bangladesh emits only less than 1/5th of 1 % of world total, but the most
vulnerable to tropical cyclones, 6th most vulnerable to flood in the world
 During 1984 to 2007, the physical damage from 6 floods worth around US$
15.178 billion including thousands of deaths
 By 2050, rice production could decline by 8% and wheat by 32% (1990)

Immediate impact Results

More erratic rainfall in the GBM basin
in the monsoon
Lower rainfall at other
times of the year
Melting of Himalayan glaciers
Sea level rise
Warmer and more humid weather
Higher river flows; Drainage congestion, flooding
in rural /urban areas
Droughts and scarcity of drinking water
Higher river flows in short to medium term
Coastal embankments overtopped, saline
intrusion into rivers and groundwater
Increased water-borne and air-borne diseases

10/7/2012 5
 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy & Action Plan 2009 –
- Thrust on the poorest and most affected/vulnerable

- Top level political priority

- for the years 2009-2018 -Total cost of programs commencing in the first 5
years could be of $5 billion

Objective of BCCSAAP 2009

 To formulate a strategy to for pro-poor, climate resilient and low carbon
development, based on four building blocks of Bali Action plan
(adaptation, mitigation, tech transfer and adequate as well as timely
flow of new and additional funds) within a framework of food, energy,
water, livelihoods and health security

 BCCSAAP is a part of the overall development strategy of the country

 Key pillars
 Food security, social protection & health
 Comprehensive disaster management
 Infrastructure, especially in vulnerable regions
 Research & knowledge management
 Mitigation & low carbon development
 Adaptation capacity building and institutional strengthening
There are 44 programmes..\..\Articles_Doc\Bangladesh Climate
Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009.pdf
10/7/2012 8
 IRREVERSIBLE
2015
2-40 Celsius
2nd Commitment period ???
2013-2020

SLR will be more than the forecast

In BD, Increase salinity and loss of lands will

be more than the expected level
 Climate Vulnerability Index 2011
 Bangladesh, the highest vulnerable country in the world over next 30 years
 It lies in ‘extreme risk’ category among 170 countries 10
Increase of vulnerability (risks of LD in terms of both
areas and amounts/size) in Bangladesh
 Recent Findings - Impacts of CC in Bangladesh
Bangladesh, Myanmar and Honduras have been identified to be the
most affected in 20-year period - Global Climate Risk Index 2012,
Germanwatch

12
Uneven Allocation of Funding to different sectors-
Almost 1/3 of funds spent for mitigations

10/7/2012 13
 Program Wise Fund Allocation (In Percentage)

Water & Sanitation Program 2.58

Livelihood protection 11.68
Institutional Capacity for Research towards climate Resilient … 0.47
T1

Climate Resilient Cropping System 2.62

Adaptation in Livestock Sector 0.09
Adaptation in Health Sectro 1.38
T2

Improvement of Cyclone Storm Surge Warning 6.28

Repair & Maintanance of Polders 0.30
Planning & Design Of River Training Work 2.14
Improvement of Urban Drainage 4.75
T3

Dredging and Resuscitation of Rivers & Khals 11.87

Construction, Repair & Maintanance of Embankments 24.91
Afforestation & Reforestation 1.58
Estublishment of Centre for Knowledge Management 1.90
T4

Climate Change Modelling 3.13

Renewable Energy Development 6.63
T5

Management of Urban Waste 3.10

Afforestation & Reforestation 12.80
T6

Strengthening Institutional Capacity In CC Management 1.79

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

T1=Food Security, Social Protection and Health T2=Comprehensive Disaster Management

T3=Infrastructure T4=Research and Knowledge Management
T5=Mitigation-Adaptation and low carbon development T6=Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening
10/7/2012 14
Theme 4 and 5 are cross-cutting – Internalize rather than to keep as
external matters
Theme-4: Research and Knowledge Management
 Inadequate funding to build national climate change study center and
extensive research on impacts of climate change
 Inadequate knowledge and expertise among policy makers and officials
 Lack of funding for alternative energy uses, fuel efficient technologies
Theme-6: Capacity Building & Institutional Strengthening
 No fund allocated yet to build a number of quality scientists and
policymakers
 Absence of plan main-streaming climate change in the media

10/7/2012 15
 Relief,
Others Rehabilitatio
28% n
11%

Bangladesh
Water
Forest Development
25% Board
36%
 Not having any sector specific needs considering vulnerability
 Absence of consultation/communication among agencies
 Gaps in pledge and received funds from Fast Start Fund
 Absence of legal obligation of consultation with affected communities in BCCSAAP
 Inadequacy-
 Needs assessment – funds and actions (both sectors and geographical location)
 Participatory project development
 Low institutional and systemic strength
 Limited civil society capacity, polarization, credibility
 Nontransparent procurement process
 Political economy and undue influence
Theme-1: Food Security, Social Protection and Health
 Faster than predicted migration of vulnerable coastal people
 Risk of low production caused by salinity and loss of habitats
 Inadequate support to develop climate resilient corps varieties, for patents or
preservation of local varieties
 Selection bias for safety net/relief programs – both targeted people and areas
 Low health expenses for vulnerable people – low allocation for health sect.

Theme-2: Comprehensive Disaster Management

 Insignificant allocation to promote indigenous knowledge to adaptation
 Missing link – between CCU and DMB and RRD
 Not considering unilateral withdrawal of water by India in BCCSAP
 Less attention in funding to address the salinity and crises of drinking water
 Inadequate focus and funds for capacity building of local 10/7/2012
adaptation 18
 Limited access and unavailability of information -
Projects documents, MRV and Audit reports, Modalities among fund
providing agencies; Guideline for scrutinize the performance of the NGO’s

 Risks in enforcement mechanism

Lack of expertise & experience; Mobilizing climate fund through same
route of the Govt. agencies which are vulnerable to corruption; Wrong
selection of project site without prior EIA
 Selection of faulty design – supply driven; graft of fund; and
 Approved to build cross-dam in reserved forest without EIA
Theme-3 : Infrastructure
 Not having any step to internalize BCCSAP into Water policy, Water
Resource Management (BWDB), development plan of LGED, RHD, PDB
and Energy conservation policy
 Not having specific law or policy on groundwater conservation –unplanned
withdrawal of ground water at northern drought-prone areas by public and
private individuals

10/7/2012 20
Missing link–
Following BCCSAP,
Construction of cross-
dam with the BCCTF
fund Without EIA and
approval of Forest
Department
Photo: The Daily Prothom Alo, 18 January 2012
Consequences are -
 May divert route of 4 rivers and 10 canals
 Livelihoods of 30 thousand fishermen will be jeopardize due to dam
 May permanent water logging and riverside erosion – risk of huge
economic costs
Theme-5: Mitigation & Low Carbon Dev., Energy efficiency
 Unchallenged logging and abrupt degradation of forest trees and areas
 Contradictory policy - plan to build coal-based power plant and setting up
high-tech security check post in the buffer zone of the Sundarban
 Contradiction to forest conservation policy – commercialization

10/7/2012 22
 Governance challenges:
• The beach level has gone
down by at least 3-4 feet
because of
indiscriminate dredging
for collection of sand for
an “industrial complex”
• More than 500 trees have
died

Whereas:
The Govt has undertaken a project of $22.5 million
under the public funded BCCTF for environment
management of the beach
Source: Prothom Alo, 27 September 2011
 CC and Corruption:Sundarban in peril
Sundarbans act as bio-shield against cyclones and high tidal
surges
- Decision to set up coal-fired power plant near Sundarban without
EIA -Environment and Forest Department objected

Major findings from case study on the Sundarbans

CC and SLR at 45 cm would inundate 75% & increase of 1 meter
would inundate completely
Illegal logging particularly the Sundary tree - worth $0.7
ml/year
Illegal practice and wrong-headed policies- degradation of
Sundarban- also threat to protect climate change induced cyclone
Source: Iftekharuzzaman & Khuda M.E., GCR 2011
 Analysis and review of policies
and data
 Expert interviews
 Consultations
 Online survey, if necessary

10/7/2012 25
 Existing Existing Projectio Resource Resource Revised
Project Policy n of Needs Availability Action
Vulnerab
ility

Expertise

Expertise
Financial

Financial
Capacity

Capacity
+ Loss

Or g.
and

Org.
Damage
Source BCCSAP Perspec Studies 6th Five Year

Gap
s tive by Ahsan Plan, World
Plan, U. Bank Country
Vision Ahmed Investment
2021 (Upazilla Report, ADB
-wise BD Country
future Strategy
vulnerabi Paper,
lity)
Project T1P1A1 T1P1A1
action A11…
….
A12---
10/7/2012 --- 26
Thank
You

10/7/2012 27