CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION:

EXECUTIVE CERTIFICATE COURSE

Tuesday 28 June, 14:00 – 17:00 AEST
3: Science and Policy

The Role of Science, Technology and Innovation

Thusitha Sugathapala
University of Moratuwa
SRI LANKA
 OUTLINE
 The Objectives
 The Background
 The Rationale
 Science, Technology and Innovation
 Scientific Research
 Technology and Innovation
 Implementation of Mitigation Actions

2
 THE OBJECTIVES

 Understand the Complexity of Climate Change and

Comprehensiveness of the Climate Action
 Respect Science, Technology and Innovation in the
Context of Complex Challenges
 Appreciate Climate Mitigation Actions in the
Sustainability Framework
 Realize the Need for Localization and Contextualization.

3
 THE BACKGROUND
 The Society, Economy & Environment
 Since the industrial revolution, the economies have delivered
enormous socio-economic benefits.
 But this progress is increasingly threatened by the very economic
models which made it possible.

Linear
Economy
RESOURCES MANUFACTURING CONSUMPTION WASTE

 Issues arisen from human activities, such as resource

overconsumption, environment degradation and climate change,
have resulted multiple challenges for sustainability.

4
 THE BACKGROUND
 The Society, Economy & Environment
 Impacts on the Environment

Living beyond ecological limits

 Planetary Boundaries:

 Climate Change is the greatest challenge

faced by countries and societies, with
major implications for both human and
natural systems
 In response, international, regional and
local initiatives are being developed and
implemented to limit global warming.
5
Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2022
 THE BACKGROUND
 Sustainable Development and Climate Change

 The 2030 Agenda for sustainable development (SD) and the Paris
Agreement for climate change (CC) are in effect.
 Represent the two most important international conventions.
 Put forth complementary frameworks for achieving ambitious sustainable
development goals (SDGs), while stabilizing the global climate by realizing
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

6
 THE BACKGROUND
 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
 Climate Action and other SDGs
 Although Climate Action
represent one SDG (among
17), Climate Change poses
the single biggest threat to
SD having implications on
most of the other SDGs.
 Thus the Paris Agreement is
an equally important
international convention as
the 2030 Agenda,
emphasizing Climate Action
as an essential instrument for
Sustainable Development.
7
 THE BACKGROUND
 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
 Linkages Mitigation actions by Links between SDGs
Sector mitigation actions
and SDGs

8
Source: The SCAN-tool, 2022
 THE BACKGROUND
 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
 The Progress
 Though a progress is being made in many places, in overall, action to meet
the SDGs is not yet advancing at the speed or scale required, particularly in
environmental SDGs .
 In Sept 2019, the UN Secretary-General called on all sectors of society to
mobilize for a decade of action (2020-2030) to deliver SDGs by 2030,
through three areas of actions at Global, Local and People levels.

9
 THE BACKGROUND
 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
 The Progress
 SDG Dashboard – Sri Lanka

Environmental
SDGs

Source: SDG Dashboard, Sri Lanka; https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles/sri-lanka 10

 THE BACKGROUND
 Nationally Determined Contributions
 Sectors covered in updated NDCs
Percentage of NDCs that cover respective sector

Source: UN, NDC Revised Synthesis Report, October 2021 11

 THE BACKGROUND
 Nationally Determined Contributions These demand for deployment of new
 Mitigation options in updated NDCs and efficient low-carbon technologies
Energy Renewable energy generation Industry Energy efficiency improvement
Supply Energy efficiency improvement LULUCF Afforestation, reforestation & revegetation
Shift to low- or zero-carbon fuels Sustainable forest management
Grid improvement Reduced deforestation/ forest degradation
Cross-cutting Forest conservation
Transport Energy efficiency improvement Land restoration
Shift to low- or zero-carbon fuels Cross-cutting
Shift to more efficient modes of transport Waste Waste recycling
Electrification Waste reduction
Cross-cutting Waste-to-energy
Buildings Energy efficiency improvement Composting
Shift to low- or zero-carbon fuels Cross-cutting
Agriculture Improved management of manure and herds Cross- Multisector energy efficiency improvement
Improved cropland management cutting/ Multisector carbon pricing
Improved agricultural productivity other Promotion of circular economy
Agroforestry Multisector fluorinated-gas substitution
Cross-cutting Source: UN, NDC Revised Synthesis Report, October 2021 12
 THE BACKGROUND
 Nationally Determined Contributions
 Prioritized sectors for mitigation identified in technology needs
assessment reports

Source: UN, Fourth synthesis of technology needs, 2020

13
 THE BACKGROUND
 Nationally Determined Contributions
 Prioritized technologies for the energy industries subsector
identified in technology needs assessment reports

Source: UN, Fourth synthesis of technology needs, 2020

14
 THE BACKGROUND
 Nationally Determined Contributions
65
 The Progress INDCs as at 4 April 2016
61.9

 NDCs. 60
Progression 58.4

55 55.1

GHG Emissions
(Gt CO2-eq)
NDCs as at 30 July 2021 51.7
50

45

40

35

30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: UN, NDC Revised Synthesis Report, October 2021 15
 THE BACKGROUND
 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
 The Progress
 NDCs.

The lack of progression towards climate targets signifies the complexity of the
problem as well as challenges for the implementation of mitigation actions
Source: IRENA (2022), NDCs and renewable energy targets in 2021: 16
 THE RATIONALE
 The Complexity
 The human and natural elements in
the earth systems are interacting
and interdepending through a
complex physical, social,
institutional, environmental, and
economic linkages, while breaking
the cyclic and enduring characters
of natural environment.
 The numerous sector interactions,
multiple stressors and complex
systems are thus among the key
results of the human dominance in
the biosphere. Source: Adopted from USGCRP (2018), 4th NCA, Volume II. 17
 THE RATIONALE
 The Complexity
 Evidently the underpinning concepts of Climate Action are:
 Business not as usual
 Transformational in nature
 Fundamentally dynamic
Thus, Essentially Complex
 Many faceted
 Multi-sectoral
 Interlinkages & interdependencies
 Added complications arise from other economic, social and
environmental dependencies driven by particular circumstances
and local priorities.

18
 THE RATIONALE
 The Solution Pathway
 Though the complex and interconnected nature makes more
difficult state of affairs, it provides multiple entry points to tackle
multidimensional & crosscutting issues, thus creating numerous co-
benefits. Science
 The complexity of the problem
demands for a holistic approach
in understanding and managing
the challenges, emphasizing the
fundamental role of science, Climate Actions
technology and innovations in towards
Technology Sustainable
Climate Change Mitigation. & Innovation Development
19
 THE RATIONALE
 The Solution Pathway
 Competencies for Sustainable Development.
In 2015 In 2018
1. Analytical thinking and
innovation
2. Complex problem-solving
3. Critical thinking and
analysis
4. Active learning and
learning strategies
5. Creativity, originality and
initiative
6. Attention to detail,
trustworthiness
7. Emotional intelligence
8. Reasoning, problem-
solving and ideation
9. Leadership and social
influence
10. Coordination and time
management
In 2022
1. Analytical thinking and
innovation
2. Active learning and
learning strategies
3. Creativity, originality and
initiative
4. Technology design and
programming
5. Critical thinking and
analysis
6. Complex problem-solving
7. Leadership and social
influence
8. Emotional intelligence
9. Reasoning, problem-
solving and ideation
10. Systems analysis and
evaluation
20
 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION
 The Model
 The basic science to practical application.

Scientific Research
Innovation
Development Process

Demonstration

Market Formation
Innovation
Feedback
Ecosystem Diffusion

Source: WRI, Two Degrees of Innovation, 2011 21

 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION
 The Functions
Creating and sharing new knowledge
Building competence
Creating collaborative networks
Developing infrastructure
Providing finance
Establishing governance and the regulatory environment
Creating markets.

Source: WRI, Two Degrees of Innovation, 2011 22

 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION
 The Outcome
 The Scope
Data Information Evidence-based decision making & actions

Science, Technology & Innovation

 Knowledge Management
Knowledge Cycle
 Knowledge development
 Knowledge sharing
 Knowledge application
Core Competencies Knowledge Assets
 Learning to Know  Knowledgeable People
 Learning to Do  Learning Organizations
 Learning to Be  Informed Society

23
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 The Climate Research
 There have been a great deal of knowledge creation during past
few decades on climate change.
 Yet, there is much still to be done to mainstream the concepts under
particular (local) settings.
 Further, evolving circumstances give off new challenges.
 Evidence-informed decision making is central to effective Climate Action.
 Scientific research is the key to generate continuous flow of
required information; thus effectuating knowledge cycle.
 Such information provide sound foundation for technology development &
deployment.

24
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 The Climate Research Landscape
 Integrative Research Themes
1. Climate change challenges ,
Research to Improve feedbacks, responses, and
3. Vulnerability and Understanding of thresholds in the earth system
Adaptation analyses of Human-Environment (planetary boundaries).
Systems
coupled human- Research 2. Climate change related
environment systems. to human behaviors
4. Research to support Support and institutions.
strategies for limiting Effective
Responses
climate change issues.
to Research
5. Effective information Climate change Tools and 6. Integrated climate
and decision-support Challenges Approaches to observing systems.
systems. Improve Both
7. Improved projections,
Understanding
and Responses
analyses, and
assessments.

25
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 Prioritization of Research
 As there would be many research needs identified for each
climate change mitigation action (e.g. NDC), implementation of all
would be not possible at once due to limitation in resources.
 Further, the level of efforts/resources required to conduct a
particular research activity and its impacts of implementation
would be different from another activity.
 Thus, prioritization of research activities become a necessity.
 Such prioritization could be done by analyzing the efforts required
to implement and benefits/impacts of implementation of each
research activity.
 The impacts of implementation should look into social, environmental and
economic areas, for which a suitable set of criteria and indicators is
required.
26
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 Prioritization of Research
 Methodology
Situational
 Review and identify issues/problems related to each climate action.
Analysis
 Identify R&D programmes / activities needed to address the issues
Strategic Level  Identify appropriate sets of (i) Criteria for Screening - yielding only an
Assessment objective Yes/No type answer, (ii) Criteria for Scoping (Ranking) - under
the categories of Technical, Financial, Social and Environmental

 Recommend and prioritize R&D Actions (Activities/Interventions),

through the three stages of (i) Screening, (ii) Scoping and Detailed
Operational Level Assessment
Assessment  Identify KPIs
 Identify the lead Institute/collaborative institutes
 Recommend a list of experts/stakeholders to have a wider consultation.

27
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 Prioritization of Research
 Case Example: R&D Investment Plan in Sri Lanka Energy Sector
R&D Sub-Areas and Interventions
Sub-Areas Interventions
Stage Renewable Energy Renewable Energy
Energy Management Energy Management
Identification Situational Analysis 66 29 408 173
Screening 17 14 96 85
Prioritization
Scoping 06 06 36 35

Prioritized R&D Sub-Areas of Energy Conservation & Management

1. Energy efficient building envelopes
2. Energy efficiency labelling of household appliances
3. Fuel economy standards for road vehicles
4. Public /Mass transport systems
5. Transport supply/demand management
6. Non-motorized transport system
28
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 Prioritization of Research
 Case Example: R&D Investment Plan in Sri Lanka Energy Sector
R&D Activities in Energy Efficiency Improvements, Conservation & Management
Area/Sector Sub-Area/Sub-sector Research Programme/Activity
Development of efficient lighting products / fixtures
Energy Efficient Appliances Energy labelling of appliances (Lamps, A/Cs, Iron, Cookers,
Refrigerators, Pumps, Washing M/C,..)
Domestic Sector
Energy Conservation & Management ICT interventions (demand control / smart appliances)
In situ energy generation & utilization Solar net-metering, Solar water heaters
Low Energy Intensity Products / Energy efficient machines / plants; Energy labelling of
Commercial & Processes equipment
Industrial Sectors Energy efficient building design
Energy Efficient Building Envelopes
Building Energy Management Systems
Energy Efficient Transmission and Reduction of technical losses
Power Sector
Distribution Systems Reduction of non-technical losses
Energy Efficient Vehicles Fuel Economy Standards for vehicles
Non-motorized transportation systems (NMT)
Transport Sector Less energy intensive transport Supply/demand management (Traffic) and use of ICT
system Public transport systems; BRT, MRT
Inter-modal transport systems
29
 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
 Prioritization of Research
 Case Example: R&D Investment Plan in Sri Lanka Energy Sector
Financial Resource Requirement
300 Popularization
Investment Reqirement (M LKR)
250 Capacity Building

Testing, standardization &

200 Accreditation
Indigenous knowledge &
150 Intellectual Property Rights
Information and Communication
Technologies
100
Innovation

50
Pure and Applied Research

0 Policy Studies
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

30
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 The wide scope of mitigation actions identified in NDCs signifies
that the need of technology deployment across many sectors of
the economy.
 Further, as the current level of ambition set out in NDCs is, in
aggregate, still far too low for the international community to meet
the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. and innovative
climate technologies is key to raising climate ambition.
 Accordingly, appraisal of research, development and deployment
of technologies become important for the countries to plan the
implementation of NDCs and other climate targets such as carbon
neutrality.
31
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps.

Global CO2
emissions abatement
under IRENA’s 1.5°C
Scenario
and required energy
transition solutions

Source: IRENA (2021), World Energy Transitions Outlook 32

 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps.

The role of
renewable energy in
the energy transition

Source: IRENA (2021), World Energy Transitions Outlook 33

 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps.

Solar PV module
cost trends

Source: IEA (2019) 34

 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps.

Solar Panel Cost and

Area Changes

Source: WRI, Two Degrees of Innovation, 2011 35

 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps.

Wind Turbine Cost

and Scale Changes

Source: WRI, Two Degrees of Innovation, 2011 36

 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
70% Renewables in Grid Electricity
 Technology Roadmaps. Generation by 2030 in Sri Lanka
Installed
Resource 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Capacity
Biomass 54 54 64 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Major Hydro 1,383 1,538 1,538 1,568 1,568 1,568 1,568 1,568 1,568 1,568
Mini Hydro 429 464 610 669 678 692 720 720 720 720
Solar (Rooftop) 422 613 788 913 1,013 1,113 1,213 1,313 1,413 1,513
Solar (Ground) 104 382 837 1,238 1,643 1,823 1,998 2,278 2,528 2,713
Floating Solar 200 400 500 600 700 800 900
Wind 249 249 269 524 789 919 1,169 1,299 1,474 1,649
Wind Offshore 500 1,000 1,500 1,500 2,000
Geothermal 10 30
Wave 5 5 10
Total Capacity
2,641 3,299 4,106 5,182 6,165 7,195 8,353 9,473 10,113 11,203
(MW)
Total Generation
7,877 9,250 10,754 12,917 14,828 17,617 20,770 23,683 24,989 28,018
(GWh)

Source: SLSEA (2022), 37

 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps. Trends in Low Carbon Vehicles in Sri Lanka
60,000
Number of First Registration (Cars)

50,000

40,000
Diesel
30,000
Petrol

20,000 Hybrid

Electric
10,000

Year
Source: DMT (2021) 38
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 The Role in Climate Change Mitigation
 Technology Roadmaps. Trends in Low Carbon Vehicles in Sri Lanka
10 10
Annual Average Fuel Economy

Annual Average Fuel Economy

Diesel
8
8 Gasoline
(l/100km)

All - Without Hybrid

(l/100km)

6
All - With Hybrid
Diesel
6 Gasoline
4 All2030 Diesel
- Without Hybrid
All - With Hybrid Gasoline

4 2 All - Without Hyb

2050 All - With Hybrid
0
2011 20122 2011 20132012 2014
2013 2014 20152015 2016
2016

Year
Year
0
Source: Sugathapala, A.G.T. (2018) 39
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Technology Development
 Technology innovation and research has for a very long time
been stimulated and funded by different kinds of public
organizations.
 These technologies are then expected to be moved into the
market places by the industry.
 What is seen instead is that the larger part of these technologies
never makes the leap over the private sector.
 Somewhere between research and new product development lies
a gap phenomenon where projects get large problems connected
to everything from finance, legal, production and supply chain
management.
 This gap is often referred to as “The Valley of Death”. 40
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Technology Development
 The Valley of Death

41
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Technology Development
 Viable Technology:
 Commercially relevant, economically significant
 Significant advantage over alternatives
 Protectable with effective property right mechanisms
 Be on lookout for technologies with local/regional impact.

 Technology Development:
 Technology assessment & characterization
 Market applications and potential competitive advantages
 Effective patentability (other IP)
 The key decision: file or not to file?
 Preliminary valuation as basis for negotiating position.
42
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Technology Triage
 A process of selecting those inventions that have at least a
reasonable chance to be commercialized from those that don’t.
 Triage is an essential step in technology licensing:
 Managing IP/technology commercialization takes a lot of professional time
and money,
 Investing time & money on a technology which has little or no chance of
signing a licensee is an unacceptable waste,
 Is the thoughtful analysis and evaluation of all inventions to sort
them into these three categories of “licensability”:
 High potential (the 20%)
 Very low (or zero) potential (the 30%)
 Medium potential (the 50%).

43
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Technology
Readiness
Level (TRL)
Valley of Death

44
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Invention to Product

45
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION 1. Opportunity

 Global Performance
14. Risk Capital
Indices2. Startup SkillsPerception
11

 Inventions
13.
and Entrepreneurship 0.8
0.8

3. Risk Acceptance
Internationalization 0.6
0.6
1. Opportunity
Global Entrepreneurship Index Perception Sri Lanka (Rank 97)
0.4
0.4 1
14. Risk Capital 2. Startup Skills
12. High Growth 0.2
0.2 0.8
4. Networking Global
World Average
Average
1. Opportunity
13. Internationalization Perception
00 0.6 3. Risk Acceptance
1 Asia-Pacific Average
Asia-Pacific
14. Risk Capital
11. Process 2. Startup Skills
0.4
0.8 5. Cultural Support
Innovation US(Rank
US (Rank
1) 1)
13. Growth
12. High 0.2 4. Networking
3. Risk Acceptance
Internationalization 0.6
10. Product 0 6. Opportunity SriLanka
Sri
JapanLanka (Rank
30) 97)101)
(Rank
(Rank
0.4
Innovation Startup
11. Process Innovation 5. Cultural Support
Challenging Areas
12. High Growth 0.2 7. Technology4. Networking World Average
9. Competition
Absorption  Human Capital
0
8. Human Capital  Technology Absorption
Asia-Pacific
10.
11.Product
ProcessInnovation 6. Opportunity Startup  Process Innovation
5. Cultural Support
Innovation  Networking
US (Rank 1)
7. Technology
9. Competition
Absorption  Startup Skills
10. Product 8. Human Capital 6. Opportunity  Japan (Rank 30)
Opportunity Perception
Innovation Startup
Role of Education
7. Technology 46
9. Competition
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Index 2019, GEDI Absorption
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Global Performance Indices
 Energy sector performance  Energy Transition Index 2020
100%
Transition Readiness
80% Sweden: Rank 1 (Score = 74.2%)

60% USA: Rank 32 (Score = 60.7%)

Sri Lanka: Rank 55 (Score = 55.8%)

40%
China: Rank 78 (Score = 50.9%)
20%
India: Rank 74 (Score = 51.5%)

0%
0% 50% 100%
System Performance

Source: Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2020 edition, World Economic Forum 47
 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
 Global Performance Indices
 Energy sector performance  Energy Trilemma Index 2020
Energy
Security

USA
Rank 15
Score = 77.5:
Switzerland 68,97,66
Rank 1 (AAB) Sri Lanka
Score = 85.8: Rank 85
70,98,89 Score = 60.1:
(AAA) 59,55,68
(BCB)

Environment Energy
Sustainability Equity

Source: World Energy Trilemma Index 2019, World Energy Council 48

 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 National Approach to Climate Actions in Sri Lanka
 Sri Lanka has pledged its contribution to the global Climate Action:
 Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) in 2015
 NDCs in 2016 for the implementation period of 2020-2030, based on the
Readiness Plan 2017-2019 for the Implementation of INDCs.
 Updated NDCs in September 2021.
 Sri Lanka’s NDCs comprise of following four areas:
o Mitigation (Six sectors).
o Adaptation (Nine sectors).
o Loss and Damage.
o Integrating SDGs and Gender to the NDCs
o Means of Implementation.

49
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 National Approach to Climate Actions in Sri Lanka
 Mitigation Targets:

Power Industry Waste

sector sector sector

Transport Agriculture Forestry

sector sector sector

Source: GoSL (2021), Updated NDCs 50

 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 The Challenge
 The climate actions in NDCs cover both adaptation and mitigation aspects in
all sectors in the economy, with specific and time bound targets (2020-2030).
 The inherent dissimilarities among the climate actions pose challenges for the
selection of the most effective options for implementation.
 Usually, climate actions are selected by financial considerations in achieving
set targets.
 For example, in case of mitigation actions the basic criterion is the cost effectiveness in
carbon reduction in US$/tCO2e referred to as marginal abatement cost – MAC.
 Such approaches fail to value the climate actions in the broader aspects of SD
and the ability for implementation, for examples by neglecting:
 Other socio-economic and environmental (local) benefits/adverse impacts,
 Barriers/risks for implementation; as well as enablers, such as government priorities.
 The challenge is to strike a balance between emissions reductions, adaptation
and development priorities, and find policies/strategies that co-deliver.
51
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 The Basis
 Respect the core principles underpinning the 2030 Agenda
 Aligning climate actions with SDGs.
 Take into account the national and sub-national interests, priorities and
particular circumstances
 Locally-focused.
 Emphasis on specific, measurable, relevant, attainable & time-bound features
 SMART climate actions.
 Inputs from both strategic level and operational level
 Stakeholder-driven.
 Appraisal based on the criteria and indicators in the relevant economic, social
and environmental dimensions
 Sustainability assessment framework.
 Make decisions based on all related criteria
 Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). 52
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Sustainability Assessment Methodology
 The framework:
Climate Actions
Monitoring & performance Situation analysis NDCs
evaluation
Define targets
Implementation Pre-screening
Strategic level - the technology maturity;
Stakeholder assessment
Detailed planning, design - the information availability.
and costing Consultation /
Information Operational level
assessment Sustainability Assessment
Anticipating - Climate benefits & Financial
future scenarios
Screening Implications
- Barriers & national priorities
Preferred Climate Actions Scoping - Sustainability criteria and
indicators considering other
Detailed
assessment related impacts (co-benefits)

Multi-Criteria decision analysis (MCDA) 53

 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Prioritization of Mitigation Actions in Energy Sector NDCs
 Sri Lanka has shown its commitment for global climate action by publishing
NDCs.
 Includes mitigations in five sectors:
 Energy, 20% (4% unconditionally and 16% conditionally) During the
 Transport, implementation
period of 2020
 Industry,
10% (3% unconditionally and 7% conditionally) to 2030
 Forestry, and
 Waste
 Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in Energy Sector
 Reduction target in NDCs during 10-year period  40 Mt CO2e (4 Mt CO2e/year)
 NAMAs: 07 key intervention areas, 52 NAMAs, total potential of 75 Mt CO2e.
 Evaluated based on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) value (in US$/t-CO2e) and annual
GHG abatement potential (in t CO2e/year), and
 Presented graphically in MAC Curve (MACC), arranged in most cost effective option to
54
least cost effective option.
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 MAC Curve for Energy Sector in Sri Lanka (2020 - 2030)
150

100
MAC value (US$/t-CO2e)

50

0
20 40 60 80
-50

-100

-150

-200

Cumulative Mitigation potential (Mt CO2e)

55
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Prioritization of Mitigation Actions in Energy Sector
 Pre-Screening:
 Criterion: Ability or capacity to implement
 Two indicators: (i) Technology maturity, (ii) Information availability/accessibility
 Evaluation: Graded as High, Medium, Low, and NAMAs receiving no Low grading for both
indicators are selected for the next step (Screening).
 Screening:
 Criterion: Effectiveness of GHG abatement
 Two indicators: (i) Abatement cost (US$/t CO2e), (ii) Abatement potential (t CO2e)
 Abatement cost and potential are normalized into 0 - 5 Likert Scale of scoring, and
combined to derive a single abatement score. Options receiving score > 1 selected for the
next step (Scoping)
 Scoping:
 Criteria: Barriers, Enablers and Co-benefits
 Nine indicators: (i) Six barrier categories, (ii) National priority as enabler, (iii) local
environment benefits and socio-economic benefits as co-benefits.
 Each three criteria are given 0 to 5 Likert Scale of scoring, and combined to derive a single
multi-criteria score. Prioritization is done based on abatement score and multi-criteria
scores, as three appealing groups namely highly (H), moderately (M) and least (L). 56
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Prioritization of Mitigation Actions in Energy Sector
Situational Analysis 
(52 Options, 75 Mt CO2e)

Pre-Screening 
(38 Options, 63 Mt CO2e)

Stakeholder groups consulted:

Screening 
1. Policy Makers; (31 Options, 62 Mt CO2e) MCDA tools used:
2. Regulators;
1. Analytic hierarchy process
3. Utility personnel;
Scoping  (AHP)
4. Researchers; H = 07; M = 14 2. Weighted Sum Model
5. Technology Managers; L = 10
(WSM)
6. Donors; and Preferred
7. Energy experts. Options
H+M
(21)

Implementation
Detailed planning, resource allocation, implementation,
Monitoring & Performance evaluation 57
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Prioritization of Mitigation Actions in Energy Sector
4.0

Moderately appealing (M) Highly appealing (H)

3.5 The H and M categories
Multi-Criteria Score

collectively (21 NAMAs)

could contribute to GHG
3.0 mitigation of 49.5 Mt
CO2e, which is greater
than the target of 40 Mt
CO2e set in NDCs.
2.5
Least appealing (L) Moderately appealing (M)

2.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Abatement Score
58
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Prioritization of Mitigation Actions in Energy Sector
Highly appealing NAMAs Moderately appealing NAMAs
(03 EE + 04 RE) (06 EE + 07 RE + 01 LNG)
GHG mitigation GHG mitigation
# NAMA potential # NAMA potential
(Mt CO2e) (Mt CO2e)
1 LED replacing CFL 0.53 1 VFDs for tea factories - 5-8 kW 0.14
2 LED replacing incandescent lights 0.11 2 Efficient chillers: commercial sector-New 0.10
3 Efficient chillers - Commercial sector - 0.16 3 Biomass chillers 0.17
Retrofit 4 Efficient chillers - hotel sector - new 0.09
4 Wind farm -100 MW 5.76 5 Biomass replacing diesel/oil - industry 5.50
5 Solar PV farm -100 MW 3.97 6 Efficient fans 1.73
6 Wind farms:10-30 MW 4.12 7 Efficient air conditioning - domestic 0.64
7 Roof solar PV - 5-10 kW 2.45 8 Efficient ballasts (T8 to T5) 2.83
7 Mitigation Options in H category 17.10 9 Roof solar PV - 50-300 kW 0.54
10 Hydro: 1 -10 MW 2.14
The H and M categories collectively (21 NAMAs) 11 Solar PV farm - 1 MW 0.81
could contribute to GHG mitigation of 49.5 Mt 12 Roof solar PV - 3-4 kW 0.83
CO2e, which is greater than the target of 40 Mt 13 Biomass power plant 1 -10 MW 3.53
CO2e set in NDCs. 14 LNG plant - 300-600 MW 13.33
14 Mitigation Options in M category 32.39 59
 IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
 Revised MACC based on MCA for Energy Sector Mitigation Actions
200

150 1 LED replacing CFL

2 LED replacing incandescent lights
2e)

3 Efficient chillers - Commercial sector -

(US$/t-CO

100 Retrofit
4 Wind farm -100 MW
CO2e

50 5 Solar PV farm -100 MW

6 Wind farms:10-30 MW
7 Roof solar PV - 5-10 kW
(US$/t

0
8 VFDs for tea factories - 5-8 kW
value

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
9 Efficient chillers: commercial sector-New
MAC MAC

-50 10 Biomass chillers

11 Efficient chillers - hotel sector - new
-100 12 Biomass replacing diesel/oil - industry
13 Efficient fans
14 Efficient air conditioning - domestic
-150
15 Efficient ballasts (T8 to T5)
16 Roof solar PV - 50-300 kW
-200 17 Hydro: 1 -10 MW
18 Solar PV farm - 1 MW
-250 19 Roof solar PV - 3-4 kW
20 Biomass power plant 1 -10 MW
21 LNG plant - 300-600 MW
-300

Cumulative GHG mitigation

Cumulative GHG Abatementspotential (103 t CO2e/yr)
(Gg CO2e/year)

60
 CONCLUSIONS
 The science, technology and innovation are key to the
effective implementation of climate change mitigation
actions (NDCs), as they demand transformational
changes across all the sectors of economy.
 The technology development and deployment is a long
process requiring enabling environment and systems,
thus NDC implementation is a challenging task.
 The climate actions and associated technologies need to
be appraised with the use of sustainability criteria and
indicators, with due consideration on local
circumstances (Harmonization of SDGs and NDCs). 61