Adaptation, Mitigation and Vulnerability

Reduction:
Approaches and Planning
Dr. Bhaskar Sinha
Chairperson
Centre for Climate Change
IIFM, Bhopal
Response to Climate Change Impact

IPCC NAPCC, SAPCC – promoting

UNFCCC development with
Kyoto Protocol adaptation as co-benefits
COP Meetings INDCs

National Action Plans

State Action Plans

Intended National Determined Contributions

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Approach??

Adaptation and Mitigation options help to address climate change but

no single option is sufficient by itself

Effective implementation depends on policies and cooperation at all

scales and can be enhanced through integrated responses that link
adaptation and mitigation with other societal objectives.

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 Adaptation & Mitigation

Adaptation: A response to
actual or expected
Mitigation: All human
climate stimuli or their interventions which
effects, which moderates reduce the sources of
harm or exploits greenhouse gases or
beneficial opportunities. which enhance the
Adaptation can be both
anticipatory and reactive
sinks of greenhouse
and can be implemented gases.
by public or private
actors.

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 Mitigation and Adaptation

MITIGATION
addressee the “front end” of the global
warming problem.
It includes actions that will prevent the
release of excess CO2 emissions.

ADAPTATION
Addressees the “back end” of the problem.
It includes actions that will safe-guard a
person, a community, a business, or a nation.

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Mitigation Strategies

Climate change involves complex interactions between

climatic, environmental and technological processes.

That it should take place

within a time-frame Food Production is not
sufficient to allow threatened and
ecosystems to adapt Economic Development
naturally to climate change. in sustainable manner

Source: UNFCCC
 This would require..

Multilateral actions involving policy incentives and

deployment on a global scale a portfolio of available low
and carbon technologies in a range of sectors
Energy Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste
Supply Mgmnt.

Context to sustainable development

Long-term goal of Short-term goal for Principle of common Opportunities for

GHGs stabilization developed countries but differentiated realising more cost-
responsibilities effective technology

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MITIGATION STRATEGIES (INDC)

Clean and Efficient Abatement of Pollution

Energy System

Intended Enhancing Energy Promotion of Clean

Nationally Efficiency Energy
Determined
Contributions
Promoting Waste to Planned Afforestation
Wealth Conversion

Safe, Smart and Sustainable Green

Transportation Network
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 Why Adaptation?

Climate Change cannot be avoided.

Anticipatory and Climate change may Immediate benefits

precautionary adaptation be more rapid and can be gained
is more effective and less more pronounced from better
costly than forced, last- than current adaptation to
minute, emergency estimates suggest. climate variability
adaptation or retrofitting Unexpected events and extreme
are possible. atmospheric
events.

Immediate benefits also can be gained by removing maladaptive policies and

practices.

Climate change brings opportunities as well as threats. Future benefits can result from
climate change.
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Types of Adaptation

Adaptation Autonomous/
Spontaneous
Reactive
Planned
Anticipatory

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Adaptation & Its components

Observation
of climatic &
non-climatic
variables

Assessment
Stakeholders of climate
Engagement impacts &
vulnerability

Adaptation
Components

Knowledge Planning &

sharing and Implementati
learning, on

Monitoring
and
evaluation

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 Adaptation Principles

Adaptation Adaptation
activities may activities must
further the have
achievement of development
MDGs and SDGs focused.

The starting point of developing national responses is strengthening

adaptive capacity

Stakeholder involvement and

public participation are key 12
 Adaptation Strategies in India

National Water Mission

NM on Sustainable Agriculture
National Action Plan
(NAPCC)

NM on Himalayan ecosystem

Adaptation Strategies
Capacity Building & Knowledge
Management

Preparation of State
State/UTs Action Plan
Action Plans
Click here for movie 13
Characteristics of Adaptation and Mitigation

(Source: Fussel and Klein)

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Adaptation and Development are hard to split

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Guiding Approach for Adapting Development

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Examples of Adaptation measures
Category Examples
Human Improved access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing & settlement
structures, & social support structures; Reduced gender inequality & marginalization in other
development
forms.

Poverty Improved access to & control of local resources; Land tenure; Disaster risk reduction; Social
safety nets & social protection; Insurance schemes.
alleviation
Livelihood Income, asset, & livelihood diversification; Improved infrastructure; Access to technology &
decision making fora; Increased decision-making power; Changed cropping, livestock, &
security
aquaculture practices; Reliance on social networks.

Disaster risk Early warning systems; Hazard & vulnerability mapping; Diversifying water resources;
Improved drainage; Flood & cyclone shelters; Building codes & practices; Storm & wastewater
management
management; Transport & road infrastructure improvements.

Ecosystem Maintaining wetlands & urban green spaces; Coastal afforestation; Watershed & reservoir
management; Reduction of other stressors on ecosystems & of habitat fragmentation;
management
Maintenance of genetic diversity; Manipulation of disturbance regimes; Community-based
natural resource management.
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 Category Examples

Spatial or land-use Provisioning of adequate housing, infrastructure, & services; Managing development in flood prone & other
high risk areas; Urban planning & upgrading programs; Land zoning laws; Easements; Protected areas.
planning
Structural/Physica Engineered & built-environment options: Sea walls & coastal protection structures; Flood levees; Water storage;
Improved drainage; Flood & cyclone shelters; Building codes & practices; Storm & wastewater management;
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Transport & road infrastructure improvements; Floating houses; Power plant & electricity grid adjustments.

Technological options: New crop & animal varieties; Indigenous, traditional, & local knowledge, technologies, &
methods; Efficient irrigation; Water-saving technologies; Desalinization; Conservation agriculture; Food storage
& preservation facilities; Hazard & vulnerability mapping & monitoring; Early warning systems; Building
insulation; Mechanical & passive cooling; Technology development, transfer, & diffusion.

Ecosystem-based options: Ecological restoration; Soil conservation; Afforestation & reforestation; Mangrove
conservation & replanting; Green infrastructure (e.g., shade trees, green roofs); Controlling overfishing;
Fisheries co-management; Assisted species migration & dispersal; Ecological corridors; Seed banks, gene banks,
& other ex situ conservation; Community-based natural resource management.

Institutional Laws & regulations: Land zoning laws; Building standards & practices; Easements; Water regulations &
agreements; Laws to support disaster risk reduction; Laws to encourage insurance purchasing; Defined property
rights & land tenure security; Protected areas; Fishing quotas; Patent pools & technology transfer.

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 Category Examples

Social Educational options: Awareness raising & integrating into education; Gender equity in education;
Extension services; Sharing indigenous, traditional, & local knowledge; Participatory action research &
social learning; Knowledge-sharing & learning platforms.
Informational options: Hazard & vulnerability mapping; Early warning & response systems;
Systematic monitoring & remote sensing; Climate services; Use of indigenous climate observations;
Participatory scenario development; Integrated assessments.
Behavioral options: Household preparation & evacuation planning; Migration; Soil & water
conservation; Storm drain clearance; Livelihood diversified cation; Changed cropping, livestock, &
aquaculture practices; Reliance on social networks.

Spheres of change Practical: Social & technical innovations, behavioural shifts, or institutional & managerial changes that
produce substantial shifts in outcomes.
Political: Political, social, cultural, & ecological decisions & actions consistent with reducing
vulnerability & risk & supporting adaptation, mitigation, & sustainable development.

Personal: Individual & collective assumptions, beliefs, values, & worldviews influencing climate-change
responses.

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 Vulnerability
• Vulnerability is defined as the extent to which environmental and economic changes
influence the capacity of human and ecological systems to respond to natural and
socio-economic shocks. The most vulnerable systems would be the ones that are
most exposed to perturbations, have limited capacity of adaptation and are least
resilient (Liechenko and O’Brien, 2002).

• The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse
effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. (IPCC, 2010).

• The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses

a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and
lack of capacity to cope and adapt (IPCC, 2014).

• Climate change and vulnerability need to be evaluated against a dynamic

interactions of socio-economic and bio-physical factors.
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Vulnerability: IPCC, 2014

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Rural Ecological
Infrastructure in India
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Vulnerability Assessment

Dr. Bhaskar Sinha

Chairperson
Centre for climate change studies
Iifm, Bhopal -462003
Goals of NREGA
Strong social safety net for the vulnerable groups
Growth engine for sustainable development of an
agricultural economy
Address drought, deforestation, soil erosion and creation of
durable assets
Empowerment based on rights-based law
Model governance on the principles of transparency
and grass root democracy

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25
Linkages between NREGS and Climate Change

Hardest and earliest to the poor of developing countries

Adaptation

Vulnerable
Groups

NREGS Activities

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Broad Objectives
 To evaluate the impact of NREGA activities related to impact on
agricultural productivity and regeneration of natural resources

 To identify the opportunities under NREGA towards adaptation and

mitigation of the effects of climate change

 To identify different ecosystem services associated with NREGA

programme

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Study Site
 Rich Natural Resource
◦ Panna
◦ Chhindwada

 Poor Natural Resource

◦ Dhar
◦ Ujjain

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Forest Cover and Rainfall Pattern of Sampled Districts

Forest Cover (in %) Avg. Rainfall

45 160
40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
140
35
120
30

Avg. Rainfall (mm.)

100
25
80
20
60
15
40
10

5 20

0 0
Panna Chhindwara Dhar Ujjain Panna Chhindwara Dhar Ujjain
Resource Rich Resource Poor
Source: FSI, 2009 Source: IMD

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Sample Layout Design

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Criteria for selection of Blocks & GPs

• Highest & lowest allocation of funds

• Involvement of other line Departments

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Role of NREGS in Climate Change
Adaptation & Mitigation

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 Food
Security

Water &
Health NREGS Ecosystem

Extreme
weather
events

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Water Scarcity
Kapil • Irrigation
Dhara • Potable water

• For cattle
Ponds • Nistar
• Agriculture

• Potable water
Nirmal • Reduce water
contaminant
Neer diseases
• Improve sanitation

Plantation
&
Watershed •Improve water
treatment
regime

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Food Security
• Improved Irrigation
• Increased cropped
Kapil area
Dhara • Increased Yield
• Crop diversity

• Increase in soil
moisture
Ponds • Ground water
recharge

Farm • Soil & moisture

Bunding conservation

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Ecosystem
• Increase green
Afforesta cover
tion • Carbon
sequestration

Rehabilitation
• Improve ecological
(degraded land) security
Protection
(forest land)
• Biodiversity
conservation

Watershed • Soil & water

Treatment conservation

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Extreme weather events
Watershed • Drought proofing
treatment • Flood proofing

• Reduce the impact

of heat waves
Plantation
• Improve micro-
climate

Water • Drought
harvesting
and
proofing
rejuvenation • Food security

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 Vulnerability – The IPCC View
•“The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable
to cope with, adverse effects of climate change (variability
and extremes)”.
•Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and
rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed
(exposure), its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity”
(McCarthy et al. 2001).
•The three components of vulnerability
•1. Exposure
•2. Sensitivity
•3. Adaptive Capacity
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 Components of Vulnerability
• Exposure - the projected change of climate, affecting the
system or the potential impact of climate change.

• Sensitivity - the degree to which a system is affected, either

adversely or beneficially.

• Adaptive capacity - capacity or capability of system to

withstand against climate change.

• Impacts are the consequences of climate change that are

likely to affect the function and activities of system (influence
productivity), and a function of exposure and sensitivity.
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 Components Relationship

•Vulnerability is a positive function of the system’s

exposure and sensitivity and a negative function of the
system’s adaptive capacity (Ford and Smit, 2004).

•Complex relationship due to interactive in nature (not

linear or straight)

Vulnerability = ƒ (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive

capacity)

Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacity (Internal

and External)

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 Normalization of Values

• The indicators in different units and scales

need to bring on comparable levels and
hence they are normalized to make them
dimensionless. Two types of functional
Sv  Smin
Index sv 
relationship are possible; Smax  Smin
• vulnerability increases with increase in the
Smax  S v
value of the indicator 
Index sv i.e. positive
Smax  Smin
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 Environmental Benefits of MGNREGA

Majority of works under MGNREGA are directed

towards strengthening/managing the Key natural
resource: Soil & Water

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 Methods for Assessing the Indicators

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 Approach for Assessment of Environmental Benefits

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 Approach for Vulnerability
Assessment

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 Pre-MGNREGA Post- Pre- Post-
Indicators MGNREGA MGNREGA MGNREGA

% Area Irrigated (ha) 0.78 0.37

Area under rabi crop/ household 0.67 0.42
Irrigation availability (days/yr) 0.88 0.54
AVI Number of irrigations/crop 0.82 0.48 0.77 0.41

Number of hours of irrigation/crop/day 0.85 0.41

Cropping intensity 0.64 0.33
Yield/ha (rabi crop) 0.77 0.37

Sources of drinking water 0.59 0.43

Distance travelled for water collection 0.41 0.27
Quantity of water utilized 0.52 0.47
WVI 0.52 0.39
Time required for water collection 0.39 0.26
Frequency of water collection 0.60 0.54
Drinking water availability for livestock 0.66 0.39

Agricultural income (ravi crop) /beneficiaries 0.62 0.38

Number of working days / household 0.53 0.42
LVI 0.57 0.39
Number of migrated member/household 0.49 0.38
Change in wage rate due to MGNREGA 0.67 0.40
Link to Excel Composite Vulnerability Index 0.64 0.40

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 Agricultural vulnerability index (AVI)

A reduction in the range of 14 to 58% in the agricultural vulnerability can be observed

for Dhar district, Madhya Pradesh. AVI reduction in Dhar was more than 30% in 6 out
of the 10 study villages. This reduction was mainly due to increased crop yields and
cropping intensity in all the 10 study villages, due to implementation of Kapil Dhara.
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 Livelihood vulnerability index

•A reduction in the range of 18.5 to 57.1% in LVI. This reduction could be attributed to
increased crop yields, number of days of employment and wage rates.
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