Impact of Climate Change

Global Warming Potential

Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given
mass of greenhouse gas is estimated to contribute to global warming.
It is a relative scale which compares the gas in question to that of the
same mass of carbon dioxide (whose GWP is by definition 1). A GWP is
calculated over a specific time interval and the value of this must be
stated whenever a GWP is quoted or else the value is meaningless.

GWP values and GWP time horizon

lifetimes from 2007
IPCC AR4 Lifetime (years)
(2001 IPCC TAR in 20 years 100 years 500 years
parentheses)
Methane 12 (12) 72 (62) 25 (23) 7.6 (7)
Nitrous oxide 114 (114) 289 (275) 298 (296) 153 (156)
HFC-23
(Hydrofluorocarbon)
270 (260) 12,000 (9400) 14,800 (12000) 12,200 (10000)

HFC-134a
(Hydrofluorocarbon)
14 (13.8) 3830 (3300) 1430 (1300) 435 (400)

Sulfur Hexafluoride 3200 (3200) 16,300 (15100) 22,800 (22200) 32,600 (32400) 2
Gas's effect on climate change depends:

• How much of these gases are in the atmosphere?

• How long do they stay in the atmosphere?

• How strongly do they impact the atmosphere?

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GLOBAL WARMING EFFECT OF METHANE
VERSUS CARBON DIOXIDE

4
Impacts of climate change
Chennai Flood, 2015

Mumbai Flood, 30 Aug. 2017

Video
Attribution to climate change
 Issue related to CC
• There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of CC, if we take strong action
now
• CC could have very serious impacts on growth and development
• The cost of stabilizing the climate are significant but manageable, delay
would be dangerous and much more costly
• Action on climate change is required across all countries, and it need not
cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries

Source: stern review

 Food
• In tropical regions, even small amounts of warming will lead to decline in yield. In
higher latitudes, crop yields may increase initially for moderate increase in temperature
but then fall. Higher temperature will lead to substantial decline in cereal production
around the world.
• 75% poorest people rely on agriculture for their livelihoods
• Ocean acidification, a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels, will have major effects
on marine ecosystems, with possible adverse impacts on fish production
Sensitivity of cereal yield to climate change for maize
Sensitivity of cereal yield to climate change for wheat
Climate Change
Impact on
Agriculture
Water
• People will feel the impact of climate change most strongly through changes in the
distribution of water around the world and its seasonal and annual variability

• Melting glaciers and loss of mountain snow will increase flood risk during the wet
season and threaten dry season water supplies to one-sixth of the world’s
population
• Indian subcontinent
• 70% of the ganges flow in summer are from glaciers
Future climate change impacts on freshwater
Extreme weather events
• Severe floods,
• Droughts
• Storms
• Asian Monsoon will affect the lives of two billions of people
• In India, summer monsoon provides 75-90% of the annual rainfall
• Warmer and wetter monsoon--Increased surface runoff—flood risk---1000
people died in Mumbai in august 2005
• In 2002-deficit of 20% led to severe hardship
• 200 million people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea level,
floods, droughts by 2050
Climate Change
Disaster
skewed towards
developing
countries
Health
• Climate change will increase worldwide deaths from malnutrition and heat
stress. Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever could
become more widespread if effective control measures are not in place. In
higher latitudes, cold related death will decrease
• CC will amplify health disparities between rich and poor parts of the world.
• One million die each yr in Africa due to malaria
 Direction and Magnitude of Change of
selected health impacts of climate change
Land

• Sea level rise will increase coastal flooding, raise cost of

coastal protection, lead to the loss of wetlands and coastal
erosion, and increase saltwater intrusion into surface and
groundwater
• People in south and East Asia will be most vulnerable, along with those
living on the coast of Africa and on small islands
• 150-200 million people are likely to become permanently displaced by the
middle of the century due to rising sea levels, more frequent floods, and
more intense droughts (India to be affected by these climate refugees)
 Infrastructure
• Damage to infrastructure from storms will increase substantially from only
small increase in event intensity. Changes in soil conditions (from droughts or
permafrost melting will influence the stability of the buildings.
 Environment
• Climate change is likely to occur too rapidly for many species to adapt. One
study estimates that around 15-45 % of species face extinction with 20 C of
warming. Strong drying over the Amazon as predicted by some models,
would result in dieback of forest with the highest biodiversity on the
planet.
• Arctic and mountain region to have more impacts (polar bears and seals)
Non-linear Changes and threshold effects
• Warming will increase the chance of triggering abrupt and large scale
changes
• Melting /collapse of polar ice sheets would accelerate sea level rise and
eventually lead to substantial loss of land, affecting around 5% of the
global population
• Warming my induce sudden shifts in regional weather patterns that have
severe consequences for water availability in tropical regions. (El Nino,
Asian and African Monsoons) Mumbai floods of 2005
• -----poorest will be hit earliest and most severely
 Degree of Impacts varies…

• The impacts of climate change are not evenly

distributed-the poorest countries and people will
suffer earliest and most