BiogeoChemCycles SD PDF

Biogeochemical Cycles in Globalization and
Sustainable Development
Vladimir F. Krapivin and Costas A. Varotsos
Biogeochemical Cycles
in Globalization and
Sustainable
Development
Published in association with

Praxis Publishing
Chichester, UK
Professor Dr. Vladimir F. Krapivin Associate Professor Costas A. Varotsos
Institute of Radioengineering University of Athens
and Electronics Department of Applied Physics
Russian Academy of Sciences Laboratory of Upper Air
Moscow Athens
Russia Greece
SPRINGER±PRAXIS BOOKS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

SUBJECT ADVISORY EDITOR: John Mason B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D.
ISBN 978-3-540-75439-8 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York
Springer is part of Springer-Science + Business Media (springer.com)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2007941937
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism
or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this
publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any
means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of
reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the
Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms
should be sent to the publishers.
# Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK, 2008

Printed in Germany
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci®c statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free
for general use.
Cover design: Jim Wilkie

Project management: Originator Publishing Services Ltd, Gt Yarmouth, Norfolk, UK
Printed on acid-free paper

Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
List of ®gures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
List of tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
List of abbreviations and acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii
About the authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxxvii
1 Globalization and biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 Global changes of biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1 Key aspects of global biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.2 Biogeochemical cycles in land ecosystems. . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.1.3 The regular dependence of water ecosystems on biogeo-
chemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.2 Interaction between globalization processes and biogeochemical
cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.2.1 The interplay between nature and society. . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.2.2 Sustainable development and environmental disasters . . . 16
1.2.3 Greenhouse gases and climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.2.4 Aerosols and climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.2.5 Climate change, forests, and agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . 50
1.2.6 Observational data for global change . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
1.2.7 Globalization and human-induced factors of climate
change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
1.2.8 Contradiction between observational data and modeling
results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
1.3 Long-range transport of aerosols and trace gases . . . . . . . . . . . 70
vi Contents
1.4 Global dynamics and biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

1.5 Globalization, wealth, and human health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2 The role of biogeochemical cycles in global ecodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . 95

2.1 Sustainability indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
2.2 Impacts of population growth and development on biogeochem-
ical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
2.3 Anthropogenic scenarios and sustainable development . . . . . . . 108
2.3.1 Fishery scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
2.3.2 Scenario of the distribution of soil±plant formation areas 110
2.3.3 Investment scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
2.3.4 Development scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
2.3.5 Climate scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
2.4 Balance between economic growth and social development . . . . 119
2.5 Social responsibility and economic potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
2.6 Biogeochemical cycles and quality of life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
2.7 Biological, chemical, and physical indicators of the quality of
biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
2.8 The role of living processes in biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . 131
3 Numerical modeling of global carbon change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

3.1 Overview of the global carbon cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3.1.1 Status and perspectives of carbon cycle science . . . . . . . 135
3.1.2 Global Carbon Project and reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
3.1.3 A new approach to the study of the global carbon cycle 146
3.1.4 Greenhouse effect and natural disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
3.1.5 Catalog of biospheric sources and sinks of carbon dioxide 152
3.1.6 Biospheric resources and the carbon cycle . . . . . . . . . . 157
3.1.7 Eutrophication and greenhouse cycling . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
3.1.8 A new mechanism for carbon dioxide loss in the geo-
sphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
3.2 Conceptual scheme for a model of the global biogeochemical
carbon cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
3.3 Carbon exchange processes in the atmosphere±ocean system . . . 165
3.3.1 World Ocean and carbon cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
3.3.2 A zonal model for the carbon cycle in the atmosphere±
ocean system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
3.4 Carbon cycle in the World Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
3.4.1 The World Ocean as a complex hierarchic system . . . . . 176
3.4.2 Spatial model of the carbon cycle in the ocean . . . . . . . 179
3.4.3 The organic carbon cycle in the ocean ecosystem . . . . . 181
3.5 Carbon exchange processes at the atmosphere±land boundary . . 188
3.6 Global carbon cycle model and numerical results. . . . . . . . . . . 198
3.6.1 The role of vegetation in assimilation of carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
Contents vii
3.6.2 The role of the World Ocean in carbon dioxide assimila-

tion from the atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
3.6.3 Long-term memory effect in atmospheric CO2 concentra-
tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
4 Modeling the interactive cycles of greenhouse gases and other chemicals 213
4.1 Biogeochemical cycles and the greenhouse effect . . . . . . . . . . . 213
4.2 Globalization of the sulfur cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
4.3 Globalization of the phosphorus cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
4.4 Globalization of the nitrogen cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
4.4.1 The nitrogen cycle and sustainable development . . . . . . 228
4.4.2 Numerical models of the global nitrogen cycle . . . . . . . 229
4.4.3 Atmospheric components of the nitrogen cycle . . . . . . . 232
4.4.4 The land surface part of the biospheric nitrogen cycle . . 236
4.4.5 The hydrosphere and its role in the dynamics of the
nitrogen cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
4.4.6 Anthropogenic factors affecting the biospheric nitrogen
cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
4.5 Biospheric budget of oxygen and ozone in the context of global-
ization processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
4.5.1 Oxygen sources and sinks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
4.5.2 Indicators of the status of the ozone layer . . . . . . . . . . 247
4.5.3 Anthropogenic impacts on the oxygen and ozone cycles . 249
4.5.4 Numerical model of the global oxygen cycle. . . . . . . . . 259
4.6 The role of water in the global carbon cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
4.6.1 The role of precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
4.6.2 Water budget in the atmosphere±land system . . . . . . . . 261
4.6.3 Water exchange processes in the atmosphere-ocean system 266
4.6.4 Numerical model of global water balance . . . . . . . . . . 271
4.7 Carbon cycle and methane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
5 Monitoring the cycles of chemical substances in the environment. . . . . . 291

5.1 Observational systems for biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . 291
5.2 Data and knowledge bases on environmental biogeochemistry . . 300
5.3 Algorithms for observational data processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
5.3.1 A spatiotemporal interpolation algorithm based on the
differential approximation method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
5.3.2 Method of self-organizing models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
5.3.3 Harmonic function method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
5.3.4 Method of evolutionary modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
5.3.5 Approximate method for the inverse problem solution to
identify the parameters of a monitored object . . . . . . . 312
5.3.6 Randomization algorithm for linear fractional approxima-
tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
5.3.7 Statistical classi®cation of the thermal ®elds of land cover 316
viii Contents
5.3.8 Assessment of algorithm accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319

5.3.9 Consistency of remote-monitoring information . . . . . . . 319
5.4 Monitoring and prediction of natural disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
5.4.1 Ecodynamics and natural disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
5.4.2 Natural disaster as a dynamic category of environmental
phenomena . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
5.4.3 Search for and detection of natural catastrophes . . . . . . 330
6 Multi-dimensional analysis of interactivity between global ecodynamics

and the Arctic Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
6.1 Key problems facing Arctic Basin study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
6.2 The Arctic Basin and its role in global changes . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
6.3 Arctic Basin pollution problem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360
6.4 Application of modeling technology to the study of pollutant
dynamics in the Arctic seas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
6.4.1 Spatial simulation model of the Arctic ecosystem . . . . . 363
6.4.2 Marine biota block . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
6.4.3 Hydrological block . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372
6.4.4 Pollution block . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
6.4.5 Simulation results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
6.4.6 Summary and conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
6.5 Interactions in the Arctic system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
6.5.1 The Angara±Yenisey river system simulation model . . . . 388
6.5.2 In situ measurements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
6.5.3 Experiments using the Angara±Yenisey river system simu-
lation model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400
6.6 Biocomplexity in the Arctic system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404
6.6.1 Biocomplexity indicator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
6.6.2 The biosphere±society system biocomplexity model . . . . 407
6.6.3 Biocomplexity problem related to ®sheries in the Okhotsk
Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
6.7 Carbon cycle dynamics in the Arctic system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
7 Nature±society system and climate, its interactive component . . . . . . . . 419

7.1 Earth's heat balance, and problems facing society . . . . . . . . . . 419
7.2 Natural ecodynamics assessed by observational data. . . . . . . . . 426
7.2.1 Reality, suggestions, and ®ctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426
7.2.2 Natural ecodynamics and biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . 454
7.3 Global climate change studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
7.3.1 Regional climate and its prediction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
7.3.2 Global water balance and sustainable development . . . . 466
7.3.3 Globalization of land use strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470
7.3.4 Global carbon cycle as an indicator of climate change . . 472
7.3.5 Ecosystem dynamics and change of living conditions . . . 475
7.3.6 Socio-economic aspects of ecosystem dynamics . . . . . . . 477
Contents ix
7.4 Present state and prospects for world economic development . . . 479
7.4.1 Biogeochemical cycles and energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
7.4.2 Coal and its role in the future of global energy . . . . . . 482
7.4.3 Oil and its role in sustainable development . . . . . . . . . 483
7.4.4 Natural gas and economic growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
7.4.5 Nuclear energy: yes or no. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484
7.4.6 Prospects and possibility of using hydrogen energy . . . . 485
7.4.7 Economic development and renewable resources . . . . . . 486
7.5 Modern society and ecological restrictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490
7.5.1 Global instability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490
7.5.2 Correlation between production and consumption . . . . . 490
7.5.3 Systems that are vital for life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494
7.5.4 Future analysis of human life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498
7.6 Ecological crises and disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
7.6.1 Essence of the problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
7.6.2 How natural disasters affect human life. . . . . . . . . . . . 504
7.6.3 Natural disasters as an ecodynamics component . . . . . . 505
7.6.4 Outlook for the future of global ecodynamics. . . . . . . . 506
7.7 Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the nature±society system 509
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559
Preface
In recent decades globalization has become widespread and civilization's activities

have aggravated and brought about many problems in the interaction between nature
and society. To ®nd answers to these problems, we clearly need to develop new
concepts and approaches to the interpretation of global environmental change, which
would enable us to select the top-priority directions for future scienti®c studies and to
reliably assess the state of the nature±society system. Undoubtedly, predicting the
global ecodynamics trend is one of these priorities. The growing interest in global-
ization and sustainable development as a result of contradictory estimates of the
anthropogenic contribution to climate change necessitates the need for systematiza-
tion of knowledge about change in the observed nature±society system and the causes
of this change. Despite the many projects and programs dedicated to studying past
and present ecodynamics trends, the problem of reliable prediction of future eco-
dynamics change is far from being solved. Emissions to the atmosphere of greenhouse
gases, mainly carbon dioxide, are considered one of the main causes of expected
climate warming, resulting in a poor prognosis for humankind. At the same time,
many experts in the ®eld suggest that anthropogenic emissions of aerosols could
cancel out the greenhouse-warming eect. The problem lies in combining these factors
while keeping the numerous strategies adopted for human society development in
mind. Therefore, we attempt in this book to construct a formalized tool to assess the
level of the greenhouse eect due to anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide as well
as the eect of other gas components.
In an attempt to understand the factors that determine the feedbacks from the
global nature±society system of the cycles of carbon and other chemicals, we construct
a hierarchy of model units to parameterize all the known physical and biogeochemical
processes that are responsible for the transport of various substances. We substantiate
these units by means of partial models which estimate the balance between relation-
ships at the boundaries of dierent media. The correlations between biogeochemical
cycles and the many activities of human society are the basic objectives of this book.
xii Preface
The book consists of seven chapters. Chapter 1 discusses the interactive processes
between present-day globalization of humankind's environmental strategy and bio-
geochemical cycles. It further considers the greenhouse eect and relevant contra-
dictory results obtained from various climate studies. Globalization of many human
activities is also considered in the context of wealth and human health as indicators of
sustainable development. Chapter 2 considers the role of biogeochemical cycles in
global ecodynamics. Chapter 3 gives a new view on the global biogeochemical carbon
cycle by looking at the spatial structure of carbon sources and sinks. For example, a
new mechanism for carbon dioxide loss in the geosphere is introduced. The global
carbon cycle is parameterized through its correlation with biosphere resources and
climate change. The subject of Chapter 4 is the combined parameterization of global
biogeochemical cycles of the basic greenhouse gases and other chemicals that
control bioproductivity and environment quality. Chapter 5 focuses on the observa-
tional data of the biogeochemical processes and gives algorithms for data processing.
Chapter 6 describes the results of multi-dimensional analysis of the interaction
between global ecodynamics and the Arctic Basin's environment. Chapter 7 presents
the retrospective and present-day development of the nature±society system by
looking at the existing distribution of energy resources and analyzing current trends
in world energy.
The book further develops methods, algorithms, and principles that may help
toward solving problems regarding globalization and sustainable development. To
this end, simulation experiments have shown that
. existing climate models are simply not good enough at assessing the consequences
of given anthropogenic scenarios being realized;
. the level of uncertainty in climate forecasts can be reduced by giving broader
consideration in global models to interactive bonds in the nature±society system
and to the little known mechanism of biotic regulation of the environment, as well
as general improvement of the global monitoring system;
. the use of hydrocarbon energy sources in the 21st century will not lead to
catastrophic climate change as long as there is little further change to natural
land cover and the World Ocean is protected from pollution.
In addition to analyzing present trends in the way civilization is developing and

assessing global ecodynamics, the book considers global biogeochemical cycles, one of
the main indicators of sustainable development. Assessment of the role biogeochem-
ical cycles play in global ecodynamics is based on the GIMS technology developed
earlier by the authors.
The problems facing civilization and its development are so broad and multi-
faceted that the aspects considered here are but a small part of the wider ®eld of
scienti®c and methodical studies of the processes involved in the interation between
nature and society. The proposed adaptive evolutionary scheme of combining mon-
itoring data with the results of simulation modeling may turn out to be a mechanism to
facilitate the transition to sustainable development.
Preface xiii
The book is aimed at specialists dealing with the development of information

technologies to protect the natural world. Global modeling, climate change, the
problems inherent in relationships between society and nature, and geopolicy are
all studied in depth.
Figures
1.1 Zonal and temporal dynamics of NEP for land ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

1.2 The structure of global environments, sources, and sinks of chemical con-
taminants that take part in biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
1.3 Schematic illustration of the structure of the nitrogen cycle in various
environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
1.4 Regional distribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from developed
countries projected to 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
1.5 Schematic structure of world economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
1.6 Forecasts of rates of average annual increase in energy supply made by the IEA,
PEL, and PIRA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
1.7 Global spread of cholera, 1961±1991. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
1.8 Interactions between the environment, the economy, and society . . . . . . . . . 92
2.1 Conceptual scheme showing how the nature±society system functions . . . . . 127
3.1 Global carbon cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
3.2 Global carbon reservoirs, ¯uxes, and turnover times. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
3.3 Conceptual scheme for the Earth's climate system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
3.4 Carbon ¯uxes in the atmosphere±plant±soil system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
3.5 Radiation balance of the Earth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
3.6 A block diagram of the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon on Earth . . . 165
3.7 The scheme for carbon ¯uxes in the model of the atmosphere±vegetation±soil
system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
3.8 The spatial distribution of soil±plant formations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
3.9 The dynamics of CO2 concentration for dierent scenarios of changing forest
areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
3.10 Distribution of the depth of the upper quasi-homogeneous layer of the World
Ocean. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
3.11 The annual distribution of carbon ¯ux across the atmosphere±ocean border in
dierent latitudinal zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
3.12 Longitude-averaged rates of atmospheric CO2 assimilation by both land and
ocean ecosystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
xvi Figures
3.13 Time series of CO2 concentration observed at Mauna Loa Observatory, during
1958±2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
3.14 Log-log plot of the DFA function vs. the temporal interval for detrended and
deseasonalized CO2 concentrations during 1958±2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
3.15 Log-log plot of the DFA function vs. temporal interval for shued detrended
and deseasonalized CO2 concentrations, during 1958±2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
4.1 The scheme of phosphorus ¯uxes in the biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
4.2 A scheme for the circulation of sulfur and nitrogen with the formation of acid
precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
4.3 Reserves, ¯uxes, and cycling times of nitrogen in the atmosphere±biosphere±
geosphere system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
4.4 Block diagram of biogeochemical cycles of C and N in water-limited ecosystems 232
4.5 The scheme of nitrogen ¯uxes in the marine medium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
4.6 The scheme of nitrogen ¯uxes in nature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
4.7 Oxygen ¯uxes in the biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
4.8 Simpli®ed scheme of the biogeochemical oxygen cycle in the biosphere . . . . 251
4.9 Reserves, ¯uxes, and lifetimes of oxygen in its basic reservoirs . . . . . . . . . . 252
4.10 Variations of precipitation amount and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere 260
4.11 Water ¯uxes across the border of a small land territory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
4.12 Water ¯uxes across the border of a small territory with a water body . . . . . 266
4.13 Elements of the global water balance with the role of the ocean taken into
account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
4.14 The block scheme of the sample model of water balance in a small territory 275
4.15 Block diagram for formation and transport of methane in waterlogged country 284
4.16 Reserves and ¯uxes of methane in the atmosphere±ocean±land system . . . . . 285
5.1 TAO/TRITON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
5.2 Schematic diagram of the consecutive, simultaneous, exhaustive procedure for
statistical decision-making in a multi-channel microwave-monitoring system. 318
5.3 Schematic representation of the ocean biological pump. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
5.4 Block scheme of a monitoring system to detect anomalies in the environment 331
5.5 The concept behind adaptive adjustment of the GMNSS for geoinformation
monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
5.6 Possible dynamics of Aral Sea levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
6.1 Conceptual scheme of environment monitoring for northern latitudes . . . . . 359
6.2 Block diagram of the SSMAE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
6.3 Block diagram of energy ¯ows in the trophic pyramid of the Arctic Basin
ecosystem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368
6.4 Block diagram of energy ¯ows at the snow±ice±water interface . . . . . . . . . . 369
6.5 Dynamics of the radionuclide distribution in the Arctic Basin . . . . . . . . . . . 378
6.6 In¯uence of variations in river ¯ow on Arctic Basin pollution level . . . . . . . 378
6.7 In¯uence of the Barents Sea ecosystem on the dynamics of oil hydrocarbons in
seawater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380
6.8 Dependence of the concentrations of heavy metals and radionuclides. . . . . . 385
6.9 Structure of the AYRSSM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
6.10 Block diagram of the AYRS water regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
6.11 Annual ¯ow rate through the Irkutsk dam for the years 1991±1995 . . . . . . . 402
6.12 Maps of sample locations during the American±Russian ecological expedition
of 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
6.13 Distribution of heavy metal concentration in water and in sediments . . . . . . 415
Figures xvii
6.14 Forecasting the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere obtained under
dierent anthropogenic scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
7.1 Dynamics of the number of largest natural disasters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
7.2 Organization of the global model of NSS functioning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510
7.3 Key elements of the nature±society system and energy components that need to
be considered for global ecodynamics forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511
7.4 The principal scheme from GIMS technology to synthesize the global system of
control of the environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 512
Tables
1.1 Characteristics of the most important greenhouse gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

1.2 Greenhouse gases and global warming potentials (GWPs). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 Average dry air composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.4 Evaluation of some parameters of the global cycle of chemical elements. . . . 8
1.5 Character and origin of basic substances polluting the atmosphere . . . . . . . 9
1.6 Classi®cation of atmospheric pollutants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.7 Assessment of the annual volume of particles with radius less than 20 mm
emitted to the atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.8 Sources of atmospheric pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.9 Characteristics of some atmospheric components depending on their lifetime 12
1.10 Annual average values of the total content in the atmosphere of dierent types
of aerosol in the NH and SH and over the globe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
1.11 Greenhouse radiative forcing F since the industrial revolution. . . . . . . . . . . 59
1.12 Global mean RF for three types of anthropogenic aerosol . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
1.13 The distribution of CO2 emissions due to energy production by economic sector
and region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
1.14 List of basic stationary CO2 sources emitting annually more than 0.1 MtCO2 80
1.15 Distribution of CO2 emissions by economic sector and region with a prognosis
to 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
1.16 Characteristics of regions and countries by the relationship between CO2
emission and GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
1.17 Water distribution in the biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
1.18 Cholera cases and fatalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.1 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index building blocks, indicators, and
variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
2.2 Regional distribution of energy production in 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
2.3 Current indicators of the state of the global consumer society . . . . . . . . . . . 103
2.4 List of regions and countries in which primary energy consumption exceeds
0.5% of total energy generated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
2.5 Trends in the impact on natural resources and the environment . . . . . . . . . 105
xx Tables
2.6 Energy consumption and living standarda in dierent countries. . . . . . . . . . 106

2.7 Basic plotlines of scenarios of climate change in the 21st century. . . . . . . . . 118
2.8 Parameters of the heavy metal cycle in the birch forest of Kuznetsk Alatau . 133
3.1 Global carbon reservoirs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
3.2 Characteristics of the growth of economic eectiveness and population
dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
3.3 Reservoirs and ¯uxes of carbon as CO2 in the biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
3.4 Annual budget of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere for water bodies of the
Arctic Basin and northern seas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
3.5 Empirical dependence of pH on atmospheric pressure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
3.6 Changing content of nutrient elements in trees as a result of a 2-year impact of
changed CO2 concentrations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
3.7 Dependence of annual production on mean global temperature and total
precipitation amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
3.8 Dependence of humus content in a 1 m layer of soil on mean annual
temperature and total precipitation amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
3.9 Identi®ers of the types of soil±plant formations in Figure 3.8 . . . . . . . . . . . 199
3.10 The dynamics of CO2 assimilation by plants in Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
3.11 The dynamics of the ratio of integral rates of (H C 6 ) CO2 assimilation by
vegetation cover from the atmosphere with the natural distribution of soil±plant
formations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
3.12 Model estimates of the deviation in carbon content in the event of all coniferous
forests in the Northern Hemisphere (up to 42 N) being destroyed by ®re . . . 204
3.13 Model estimates of the deviation in carbon content in the event of all forests in
the Northern Hemisphere (up to 42 N) being destroyed by ®re . . . . . . . . . . 205
3.14 Model estimates of the deviation in carbon content in the event of all tropical
forests being destroyed by ®re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
3.15 The spatial distribution of DH32 H C 3 HC 2
2 (GtC/km /solar year) estimated
from averaged values of the assimilation and emission of CO2 at the
atmosphere±ocean border since the beginning of industrialization . . . . . . . . 207
4.1 Sulfur reservoirs and sulfur recovery factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
4.2 The characteristics of the land and hydrospheric ¯uxes of sulfur in the biosphere 219
4.3 Some estimates of the sulfur reservoirs that can be used as initial data. . . . . 220
4.4 The characteristics of ¯uxes and reservoirs of phosphorus in the biosphere. . 225
4.5 Characteristics of the reservoirs and ¯uxes of nitrogen in the biosphere . . . . 234
4.6 Estimates of some parameters of the global biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen in
the biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
4.7 Basic reactions of the global biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen and their energy
output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
4.8 Estimates of the reservoirs and ¯uxes of oxygen and ozone used to adjust the
GMNSS unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
4.9 The characteristics of SSCRO units. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
4.10 The coecient of water vapor diusion in the atmosphere at a pressure of
1,000 mb as a function of temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
4.11 Quantitative estimates of water ¯uxes in the scheme in Figure 4.7 . . . . . . . . 271
4.12 Water in the biosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
4.13 Sources of the input of CH4 into the terrestrial atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
4.14 Emissions of methane by the coal industry in various countries . . . . . . . . . . 283
4.15 Methane emissions from dierent sources recalculated for carbon equivalent 284
Tables xxi
5.1 Some systems for environmental observation and their equipment . . . . . . . . 293
5.2 Some programs to study the environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
5.3 Instrumental equipment carried by the space observatory Aqua. . . . . . . . . . 296
5.4 The GOOS subsystems of obtaining data on some parameters of the World
Ocean from spaceborne monitoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
5.5 Comparison of the accuracies of the GMDH and dierential approximation
algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
5.6 Comparison of various algorithms for spatiotemporal interpolation with
retrieved speeds of ¯ows in Nyok Ngot lagoon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
5.7 Example of retrieval of brightness temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
6.1 Areal and volumetric extent of major components of the cryosphere . . . . . . 343
6.2 Examples of socio-economic sectors aected by changes in the cryosphere . . 344
6.3 Estimates of some parameters of the Arctic Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356
6.4 Characteristics of Arctic Basin water bodies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357
6.5 Characteristics of the freshwater balance of Arctic Basin water bodies . . . . . 357
6.6 Description of the SSMAE blocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
6.7 Initial data for SSMAE on the distribution of pollutants over Arctic water
bodies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
6.8 The vertical structure of the Arctic Basin's water bodies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
6.9 The values of some parameters in simulation experiments using the SSMAE 376
6.10 Input ¯ows of radionuclides, heavy metals, and oil hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . 377
6.11 Distribution of radionuclear pollution in Arctic aquatories . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
6.12 Some simulation experiment results using the SSMAE to estimate the vertical
distribution of radionuclides in the Arctic Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
6.13 Results of the simulation experiment on estimates of the parameters involved in
pollution of Arctic waters by heavy metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381
6.14 Estimates of heavy metal ¯ows to and from the atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
6.15 List of blocks of the AYRSSM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390
6.16 Results of measurements of the content of radionuclides in river bottom
sediments made in July 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
6.17 Results of on-site radionuclide measurements in river sediment . . . . . . . . . . 396
6.18 Laboratory analysis of the concentrations of heavy metals in sediments and in
water measured in July 1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
6.19 Comparison of results (ppm) of the laboratory analysis of materials from the
1996 expedition on Angara water quality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398
6.20 Relative concentrations of 137 Cs in water and in bottom sediments . . . . . . . 401
6.21 Trophic pyramid of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem considered in calculations of
the biocomplexity indicator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410
6.22 Estimates of the biocomplexity indicator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
6.23 A model estimate of surplus CO2 absorption by vegetation in Russia . . . . . 414
7.1 Ecient RF for the period 1880±2003 which takes GHGs, atmospheric
aerosols, and other factors into account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
7.2 Observed values of global mean RF and equivalent changes in the Earth's
albedo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423
7.3 Comparison of the heat balance of the climate system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439
7.4 Global average RF estimates and ranges in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444
7.5 Observed and predicted anomalous changes of weather and climate. . . . . . . 449
7.6 Regional temperature change, 1901±1996. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 458
xxii Tables
7.7 Global consumption of fossil fuels (million tons of oil equivalent) 1950 through
2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481
7.8 Annual energy consumption and CO2 emissions in dierent countries . . . . . 481
7.9 Current coal consumption (million tons oil equivalent) and future trends . . . 482
7.10 Energy production and levels of generation from data for the U.S.A. for 2003 486
7.11 Pros and cons of using dierent energy carriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488
7.12 Share of global consumption and population in dierent regions . . . . . . . . . 491
7.13 Global distribution of consumers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492
7.14 Number of consumers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493
7.15 Family expenditure on food . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493
7.16 Continental distribution of natural disasters and the resulting damage . . . . . 500
7.17 Statistics on the most powerful natural disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500
7.18 Most powerful earthquakes in the history of humankind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501
Abbreviations and acronyms
a.s.l. above sea level

AAOE Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment
AAPCHO Association of Asian Paci®c Community Health
Organization
AAPI Asian Americans and Paci®c Islanders
AARS Asian Association on Remote Sensing
AATSR Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer
ABL Atmospheric Boundary Layer
ACC Anthropogenic Climate Change
ACE Aerosol Characterization Experiment
ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
ACRS Asian Conference on Remote Sensing
ACSYS Arctic Climate SYStem Study
ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Pro®ler
ADEOS ADvanced Earth Observing Satellite
AFB Air Force Base
AGCM Atmospheric Global Climate Model
AGU American Geophysical Union
AH Arctic Haze
AHLCB Atmosphere±Hydrosphere±Lithosphere±Cryosphere±
Biosphere
AIBS American Institute of Biological Sciences
AIDS Acquired Immune De®ciency Syndrome
AIRS Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder
AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program
AMIP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
AMSR-E Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS
AMSU Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
xxiv Abbreviations and acronyms
AO Arctic Oscillation
AOD Aerosol Optical Depth
AOT Aerosol Optical Thickness
APDA Arctic Precipitation Data Archive
APEC Asia±Paci®c Economic Cooperation
APM Air Pollution transport Model
ARCSS ARCtic System Science
ARCUS Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S.
ARDB Arctic Run-o Data Base
ARF Aerosol Radiative Forcing
ARISTI All-Russian Institute for Scienti®c and Technical
Information
ARM Atmosphere Radiation Measurement
ASAR Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar
ASHOE Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment
ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and re¯ection
Radiometer
ASTTP Advanced Sensor Technology Transfer Program
ATEX Atlantic Trade wind EXperiment
ATLAS Arctic Transitions in the Land±Atmosphere System
ATSR Along-Track Scanning Radiometer
AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
AVIM Atmosphere±Vegetation Interaction Model
AVNIR Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Radiometer
AYRS Angara±Yenisey River System
AYRSSM Angara±Yenisey River System Simulation Model
BATS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study
BC Black Carbon
BGC BioGeochemical Cycle
BIBEX BIomass Burning EXperiment
BOD Biochemical (biological) Oxygen Demand
BP British Petroleum
BSS Biosphere±Society System
BTU British Thermal Unit
BVOC Biogenic VOC
CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments
CABM Coupled Atmosphere±Biosphere Model
CAGL Central AeroGeophysical Laboratory
CALIPSO Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Path®nder Satellite
Observation
CART Cloud And Radiation Testbed
CASA Carnegie±Ames±Stanford Approach
CASES Canadian Arctic Shelf Ecosystem Study
CC Cloud/Column
CC-Vex CALIPSO-CloudSat Validation experiment
Abbreviations and acronyms xxv
CCGG Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas

CCM1-Oz NCAR Community Climate Model
CCN Cloud Concentration Nucleus
CCSM Community Climate System Model
CCSP U.S. Climate Change Science Program
CCSS Carbon±Climate±Society System
CDC Centers for Disease Control
CDNC Cloud Droplet Number Concentration
CEOP Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period
CEPEX Central Equatorial Paci®c EXperiment
CER Certi®ed Emission Reduction
CERES Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System
CETT Centro EspanÄol TeoÂ®lo Tabernera
CGCM Certi®ed Graphic Communications Manager
CGSDI Consultative Group on Sustainable Development Indicators
CIESIN Center for International Earth Science Information
Network
CliC Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project
CLIVAR CLImate VARiability and predictability
CLRTAP Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
CM Climate Model
CO Carbon monoxide
COADS Comprehensive Ocean±Atmosphere Data Set
COLA Center of the Ocean±Land±Atmosphere system study
COP Conference of the Parties
CORP Chinese Ozone Research Program
CPI Consumer Price Index
CPL Cloud Physics Lidar
CPR Continuous Plankton Recorder program
CRC Chemical Rubber Company
CRF Cloud Radiative Forcing
CRP Conservation Reserve Program
CRS Cloud Radar System
CSD Commission on Sustainable Development
CSIRO Commonwealth Scienti®c and Industrial Research
Organization
DA Dust Aerosol
DEAD Dust Entrainment And Deposition
DEBITS DEposition of Biochemically Important Trace Species
DFA Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
DJSGI Dow Jones Sustainability Group Index
DMUU Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
DNA DeoxyriboNucleic Acid
DO Dansgaard±Oeschger
DOC Dissolved Organic Carbon
xxvi Abbreviations and acronyms
DOE Department Of Energy

DOM Dead Organic Matter
DORIS Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by
Satellite system
DTR Diurnal Temperature Range
DUP Data Used Program
DVI Dierence Vegetation Index
ECHAM European Center/HAMburg
ECMWF European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast
ECOHAB ECOlogy of Harmful Algal Blooms
EDGAR Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
EEA European Environment Agency
EES European Economic Society
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone
EFMN European Foresight Monitoring Network
EIA Energy Information Administration
EME Europe and Middle East
ENSO El NinÄo±Southern Oscillation
ENVISAT ENVIronmental SATellite
EOLSS Encyclopedia Of Life Support Systems
EOS Earth Observing System
EOSAT Earth Observation SATellite
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
ERB Earth Radiation Balance
ERBS Earth Radiation Budget Satellite
EROS Earth Resources Observation System
ERS European Remote sensing Satellite
ESA European Space Agency
ESI Environmental Sustainability Index
ESSP Earth System Science Partnership
EU European Union
EVI Enhanced Vegetation Index
EXPRESSO EXPeriment for REgional Sources and Sinks of Oxidants
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FBI Family Biotic Index
FCCC Framework Climate Change Convention
FGGE First GARP Global Experiment
GAME GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment
GARP Global Atmospheric Research Program
GASG Gas Analysis and Sensing Group
GBS Geosphere±Biosphere System
GC Gas Chromatograph
GCC Global Carbon Cycle
GCM General Circulation Model; Global Climate Model
GCMA General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere
Abbreviations and acronyms xxvii
GCOS Global Climate Observing System

GCP Global Carbon Project
GCTE-SEN Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems-Soil Erosion
Network
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global Ecological Fund
GEM-E3 General Equilibrium Model for Energy±Economics±
Environment
GEMS Global Environmental Monitoring System
GENEMIS GENeration and evaluation of EMISsion data
GENESIS Global ENvironmental and Earth Science Information
System
GEO Group on Earth Observations
GEOS-CHEM Goddard Earth Observing System/CHEMistry
GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems
GEWEX Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GHG GreenHouse Gas
GIMMI Geographical Information and Mathematical Model Inter-
operability
GISP2 Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2
GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GLOBEC GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics program
GMNSS Global Model of the Nature±Society System
GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
GNP Gross National Product
GOCART GOddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport
GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
GOFS Global Ocean Flux Study
GOME Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment
GOME-CHEM Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-CHEMistry
GOMOS Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars
GOOS Global Ocean Observing System
GOCR Global Ocean Carbon Research program
GPM Global Precipitation Measurement
GPS Global Positioning System
GRACE Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment
GSA Geological Society of America
GSM Global Simulation Model
GST Global Surface Temperature
GTOS Global Terrestrial Observing System
GWP Global Warming Potential
HARC Human dimensions of the ARCtic system
HB Hydrological Block
HC HydroCarbon
xxviii Abbreviations and acronyms
HDI Human Development Index

HIRHAM-4 HIgh-Resolution High Atmosphere Model
HIV Human Immunode®ciency Virus
HLZ Holdridge Life Zone
HOE Health Organizations in Eurasia
HOT Hawaii Ocean Time series
HSB Humidity Sounder for Brazil
HSRL High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar
IA Integrated Assessment
IABP International Arctic Buoy Program
IAHS International Association of Hydrological Sciences
IAMAS International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric
Sciences
IAPP International Arctic Polynya Program
IASC International Arctic Science Committee
IASI Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer
IBP International Biological Program
ICAR International Conference on Aeolian Research
ICARTT International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on
Transport and Transformation
ICD Interface for Control of the Database
ICE Indice Biotico Esteso
ICESat Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite
ICI Interface for Control of Identi®ers
ICV Interface for Control of Visualization
IDAF Initiative DEBITS in AFrica
IEA International Energy Agency
IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
IEO International Energy Outlook
IFA International Franchise Association
IGAC International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
IGBP International Geosphere±Biosphere Program
IGBP PAGES International Geosphere±Biosphere Program Pilot Analysis
of Global Ecosystems
IGCC Integrated Gasi®cation Combined Cycles
IGES Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
IGOS Integrated Global Observing Strategy
IHDP/GEC International Human Dimensions Program/Global
Environmental Change
IHDP International Human Dimensions Program
IHP International Hydrology Program
IIASA International Institute for Applied System Analysis
IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development
IM Illumination Model
IMF International Monetary Fund
Abbreviations and acronyms xxix
INDOEX INDian Oceanic EXperiment

INI International Nitrogen Initiative
INTEX-NA INTercontinental Chemical Transport EXperiment-North
America
IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IR InfraRed
IREE Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics
ISAC International Study of Arctic Change
ISCCP International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
ISEW Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare
ISF In¯uence of Stochastic Forcing
ISO International Organization for Standardization
ISPM Independent Summary for Policy-Makers
ISY International Sea Year
ITCT Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation
ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
ITEX International Tundra EXperiment
ITOP International Transport of Ozone and Precursors
IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature and
natural resources
IWMI International Water Management Institute
JAXA Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency
JERS Japanese Earth Resources Satellite
JGOFS Joint Global Ocean Flux Study
JRC European Union's Joint Research Center
KAFEC Kansk-Achinsk's Fossil-Energy Complex
KBG Kara Bogaz Gol
KP Kyoto Protocol
LACE 98 Lindenberg Aerosol Characterization Experiment 1998
LAI Leaf Area Index
LAII Land±Atmosphere±Ice Interaction
lidar light detection and ranging
LIS Lightning Imaging Sensor
LRTP Long-Range Transport Potential
LSAT Land Surface Air Temperature
LSM Land Surface Model
LTER Long-Term Ecological Research
LW Long Wave
LWC Liquid Water Content
LWD LongWave De®cit
MABL Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer
MAPS Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites
MAPSS Mapped Atmosphere±Plant±Soil System
MAS MODIS Airborne Simulator
xxx Abbreviations and acronyms
MBB Marine Biota Block

MBRAI Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
MBWB Model of Biospheric Water Balance
MEA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MEAP Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Program
MEF Model for Energy Flow
MERIS MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer instrument
MET METeorology
METOP METeorological Operational Polar mission
METSAT METeorological SATellite
MFB Model of the Functioning of Biota
MGC Minor Gas Constituent
MGNC Model of Global Nitrogen Cycle
MGOC Model of Global Oxygen Cycle
MIPAS Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding
MIRAS Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis
MISR Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer
MISRC Management Information Systems Research Center
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MLS Microwave Limb Sounder
MM5 Mesoscale Model 5
MMF Multiple Multiplicative Factor
MMT Model for heavy Metal Transport through foodchains
MOBY Marine Optical BuoY
MODIS MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
MOPITT Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere
MOS Marine Observation Satellite
MOS/IRS Modular Optoelectronic Scanner/Indian Remote Sensing
MOSS Monterey Ocean Observing System
MOT Model for the process of Oil hydrocarbon Transport
MOZART Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers
MPI Max-Planck-Institute
MPR Model for the Process of Radionuclide transport
MPT Model for Pollution Transport
MRF Model of River Flow
MSD Macromolecular Structure Database
MSOM Method of Self-Organizing Models
MSSA Multi-channel Singular Spectrum Analysis
MTI Multispectral Thermal Imager
MWD Model for the Water Dynamics of the Arctic Basin
MWR MicroWave Radiometer
MWS Model of Water Salinity
MWT Model for calculating Water Temperature
NACP North American Carbon Program
NADP National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Abbreviations and acronyms xxxi
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement

NAM Northern Annual Mode
NAO North Atlantic Oscillation
NAPAP National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program
NARCM Northern Aerosol Regional Climate Model
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NASA-CASA NASA Carnegie±Ames±Stanford Approach
NASDA NAtional Space Development Agency of Japan
NAT Nocturnal Air Temperature
NBP Net Biome Productivity
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research
NCDC National Climatic Data Center
NCEP National Center for Environmental Prediction
NDVI Normalized Dierence Vegetation Index
NEAR North East Asia Region
NEE Net Ecosystem Exchange
NEON National Ecological Observatory Network
NEP Net Ecosystem Production
NEW North East Water polynya
NH North Hemisphere
NLCD National Land Cover Data
NM Nutrient Model
NMHC Non-Methane HydroCarbon
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOW NOrth Water polynya
NPOESS National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System
NPP Net Primary Production
NPS Nuclear Power Station
NSS Nature±Society System
OACES Ocean Atmosphere Carbon Exchange Program
OAII Ocean±Atmosphere±Ice Interaction
OASIS Observational Activities for the Study of the Indian Ocean
climate System
OCO Orbiting Carbon Observatory
OCTS Ocean Color Temperature Scanner
ODS Ozone Destroying Substance
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OFP Oceanic Flux Program
OM Organic Matter
ONR Oce of Naval Research
OOPC Ocean Observations Panel for Climate
OOS Ocean Observing System
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
OSPAR OSlo/PARis convention
xxxii Abbreviations and acronyms
pa Partial pressure in the atmosphere

PACE Permafrost And Climate in Europe
PAGES Pilot Analysis of Global EcoSystems
PAHO Pan American Health Organization
PALE Paleoclimates of Arctic Lakes and Estuaries
PAR Photosynthetic Active Radiation
PARCS Paleoenvironmental ARCtic Science
PBL Planetary Boundary Layer
PCM Parallel Climate Model
PDV Paci®c Decadal Variability
PhA Phytogenic Aerosol
PIK Potsdam-Institut fuÈr Klimafolgenforschung
PIRA Petroleum Industry Research Associates
PIRATA PIlot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic
POC Permanganate Oxidizable Carbon
POLDER POLarization and Directionality of the Earth's Re¯ectances
Princeton Ocean Model
POP Persistent Organic Pollutant
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
PR Precipitation Radar
PSM Pollution Simulation Model
RA Radar Altimeter
RADAM RADar na AMazoÃnia
RAISE Russian±American Initiative on Shelf-land Environments
RAL Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
RAMS Regional Atmospheric Modeling System
RANS Russian Academy of Natural Sciences
RCTM Regional Chemical Transport Model
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model-2
RF Radiative Forcing
RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
RH Radiative Humidity
RIDGE Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiment
rms root-mean-square
RPI Retail Price Index
RS Remote Sensing
RTDI Research and Technological Development and Innovation
SA Sulfate Aerosol
SAFARI Southern Africa Fire±Atmosphere Research Initiative
SAGE SOLAS Air±sea Gas Exchange
SAM Southern Annual Mode
SAMUM SAharan Mineral dUst experiMent
SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar
SAS Surface Active Substance
SAT Surface Air Temperature
Abbreviations and acronyms xxxiii
SAVI Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index

SB Service control Block
SBI Shelf±Basin Interactions project
SC Sun Constant
SCALDS Social Cost of Alternative Land Development Scenarios
SCE Snow Cover Extent
SCIAMACHY SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for
Atmospheric CartograpHY
SCOPE Scienti®c Committee on Problems of the Environment
SDS Scott Data System
SEARCH Study of Environmental ARctic CHange
SeaWiFS Sea Wide-Field-of-view Sensor
SEDAAR Strategic Environmental Distributed Active Archive
Resource
SEVERI Spinning Enhanced VisiblE and infra Red Imager
SGM Spatial Global Model
SGP Southern Great Plains
SH Southern Hemisphere
SHADE SaHAran Dust Experiment
SHEBA Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean project
SHF Super High Frequency
SIAM Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
SiB2 Simple Biosphere model-2
SIM-CYCLE SIMulation model of carbon CYCle in Land Ecosystems
SIMS Synthesis, Integration, and Modeling Study
SLIP St. Lawrence Island Polynya
SMOS Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity
SO Southern Oscillation
SOLAS Safety Of Life At Sea
SOOP Ship-of-Opportunity Program
SP Special Publications
SPARC Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate
SPIE International Society for Optical Engineering
SPM Summary for Policy-Makers
SRB Surface Radiation Budget
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
SS Simulator of Scenarios
SSCRO Simulation System to Control the Regional Ozonosphere
SSM/I Special Sensor Microwave/Imager
SSMAE Spatial Simulation Model of the Arctic Ecosystem
SST Sea Surface Temperature
STEP Solar±Terrestrial Energy Program
STIB Stratosphere Troposphere Interactions and the Biosphere
STOCHEM A global 3-D Lagrangian chemistry transport model
STT Scienti®c and Technical Translation
xxxiv Abbreviations and acronyms
SW ShortWave
TAO Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project
TAR Third Assessment Report
TBI Trent Biotic Index
TD Technical Document
TEM Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
TEMIS Tropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet Service
TEPA Taiwan Environment Protection Administration
THC ThermoHaline Circulation
TIR Third IPCC Report
TIROS-N Television InfraRed Observational Satellite-Next
TMI TRMM Microwave Imager
TO Tropospheric Ozone
TOA Top Of Atmosphere
TOGA Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere experiment
TOMS Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer
TOPEX TOPography EXperiment
TOVS TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder
TR Technical Report
TRACE-P TRansport And Chemical Evolution over the Paci®c
TREND Technology REsearch aNd Development
TRITON T TRIangle Trans-Ocean buoy Network
TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission
TSAVI Transformed SAVI
TSP Total Soluble Protein
UAE United Arab Emirates
UARS Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite
UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
UCSF University of California, San Francisco
UDS Uniform Data Systems
UHF Ultra High Frequency
U.N. United Nations
UNCED U.N. Conference on Environment and Development
UNDP U.N. Development Program
UNDP/GEF U.N. Development Program/Global Ecological Fund
UNEP U.N. Environment Program
UNESCO U.N. Educational, Scienti®c and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change
UQL Upper Quasi-homogeneous Layer
USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Program
UV UltraViolet
VHRR Very High Resolution Radiometer
VI Vegetation Index
VIRS Visible InfRared Scanner
VOC Volatile Organic Compound
Abbreviations and acronyms xxxv
WB World Bank
WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development
WCRP World Climate Research Program
WEO World Energy Outlook
WG-I Working Group I (IPCC)
WHO World Health Organization
WI Wuppertal Institute
WMI Weather Modi®cation Inc.
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment
WS Wind Scatterometer
WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development
WTF Wet Tropical Forest
WWW World Weather Watch
XRF X-Ray-Fluorescent spectrometer
About the authors
Vladimir F. Krapivin was educated at the Moscow State University as a mathema-

tician. He received his Ph.D. in geophysics from the Moscow Institute of Oceanology
in 1973. He became Professor of Radiophysics in 1987 and Head of the Applied
Mathematics Department at the Moscow Institute of Radioengineering and Electro-
nics in 1972. He was appointed Grand Professor in 2003 at the World University for
Development of Science, Education, and Society. He is a full member of the Russian
Academy of Natural Sciences and Balkan Academy of Sciences, New Culture, and
Sustainable Development. He has specialized in investigating global environmental
change by the application of modeling technology and has published 20 books in the
®elds of ecoinformatics, game theory, and global modeling.
Costas A. Varotsos received his B.Sc. in Physics at Athens University in 1980, and a
Ph.D. in Atmospheric Physics in 1984. He was appointed Assistant Professor in 1989
at the Laboratory of Meteorology of the Physics Department of the Athens Uni-
versity, where he also set up the Laboratory of the Middle and Upper Atmosphere. In
1999 he became Associate Professor of the Department of Applied Physics at Athens
University. He is Editor of the International Journal of Remote Sensing and Advisor to
the Environmental Science & Pollution Research journal. He has published more than
300 papers and 20 books in the ®elds of atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry,
and global change.
1
Globalization and biogeochemical cycles
1.1 GLOBAL CHANGES OF BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
1.1.1 Key aspects of global biogeochemical cycles

Interactions between the abiotic factors of the environment and the living organisms
of the biosphere are accompanied by a continuous matter cycle in nature. Dierent
species of living organisms assimilate substances needed for their growth and life
support emitting to the environment products of metabolism and other complex
mineral and organic compounds of chemical elements in the form of non-assimilated
food or dead biomasses. As a result of biospheric evolution, a stable chain of global
biogeochemical cycles has been formed whose violation in the second half of the 20th
century has made humankind face many principal problems such as an unpredicted
climate change due to the greenhouse eect, a decrease of biodiversity, progressing
deserti®cation, and many others. Indeed, questions about what's the matter with the
Earth's climate and what are the consequences of ozone layer depletion remain
unanswered despite huge economic expenditures on their study. It is now clear that
these and other nature protection questions cannot be answered without developing
an eective global monitoring system based on the Global Model of the Nature±
Society System (GMNSS), one of the basic units of which is the unit simulating
the biogeochemical cycles of basic chemical elements of the biosphere (Zhu and
Anderson, 2002; Kondratyev et al., 2002b). It is this approach, by implementing
ideas put forward in the Kyoto Protocol (KP), that will make it possible to assess the
anthropogenic ¯uxes of pollutants and to estimate permissible emissions of carbon,
chlorine, sulfur, ¯uorine, methane, and other chemical elements to the environment
as well as to regulate the problems of the GHG emissions market (Pan, 2005; Kalb,
Pamsters, and Siebers, 2004).
Fundamental connections between the characteristics of the biological state of
the environment, such as biodiversity in ecosystems, the state and dynamics of food
2 Globalization and biogeochemical cycles [Ch. 1
chains, and interactions of the biosystem with the cycle of biogenic elements, have
been poorly studied, both in land and in water ecosystems. Among the numerous
questions resulting from studies of the global biogeochemical processes the following
are of key importance:
(1) What physical, biological, chemical, and social processes are basic to regulation
of the cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, water, and other elements both in space
and in time?
e What mathematical relations are determinants in the parameterization of
biological processes in the computer models of biogeochemical cycles?
e What are the dependences between biodiversity, stricture of ecological
chains, and biogeochemical cycles in land and water ecosystems?
e What processes are determinants in the transport of biogenic salts and
pollutants in space, in general, and between various ecosystems, in
particular?
e What are mechanisms that relate one biogeochemical cycle to another,
and do the general principles of parameterization of these relations exist
or do they depend on the type of chemical elements and ecosystems under
consideration?
(2) What are the forms and ways of anthropogenic interference with global
biogeochemical cycles?
e How do humans in¯uence biogeochemical cycles and change the rates and
spatial distributions of chemical elements that form the inputs and outputs of
numerical models, and what are the consequences of this interference?
e How does a change in land use strategy aect the re-distribution of chemical
elements in space and in time?
e What anthropogenic pollutants are involved in the biogeochemical in¯uence
on ecosystems, and how to predict them?
(3) What mechanisms control the ability of ecosystems to rapidly restore themselves
and what are the indicators that re¯ect this ability of ecosystems?
e How does the introduction of new species to ecosystems and the appearance
of new, unstudied diseases aect the development of biogeochemical cycles
in land and water ecosystems?
e What feedbacks between ecosystems and climate are critical, and how are
these feedbacks parameterized in computer models?
e Can the data on the past biogeochemical cycles be used for their prediction in
the future?
e What basic parameters and characteristics of ecosystems aect their ability
to restore themselves after anthropogenic forcings?
The global CO2 biogeochemical cycle is in the center of attention of scientists.

Specialists from many countries are trying to answer the following questions:
(i) What concentrations of CO2 can be expected in future with present or predicted
rates of organic fuel burning?
Sec. 1.1] 1.1 Global changes of biogeochemical cycles 3
(ii) What climate changes can result from increased concentrations of CO2 ?
(iii) What are the consequences of climate change for the biosphere?
(iv) What can humankind do to either reduce the negative consequences of climate
change or prevent them?
Clearly, according to rough model estimates, the industrial world should now
search for new sources of energy that would decrease the rates of organic fuel burning
and, hence, reduce external forcings on natural biogeochemical cycles. The atmo-
sphere is one of the important reservoirs involved in formation of these cycles.
Overall, it is the chemistry and physics of atmospheric processes that suer changes,
without a study of which reliable assessment of the state of the atmosphere and the
dynamics and photochemical processes in it is impossible (Brasseur, 2005).
During the last decade the words ``greenhouse eect'' could be seen in numerous
publications on the problems of global climate change on Earth (Ichikawa, 2004).
This term implies all the descriptions of the eects appearing in the climate system
that are connected with the number of natural and anthropogenic processes. On the
whole, the notion of the greenhouse eect refers to an explanation of changes in the
atmospheric thermal regime, as a result of the impact of some gases on the process of
solar radiation absorption. Many gases are characterized by high stability and long
residence in the atmosphere (Table 1.1). Carbon dioxide is one of them. As for the
role of CO2 , more than a century ago Arrhenius (1896) was the ®rst to draw the
conclusion that its emission in fuel burning can lead to climate warming. In sub-
sequent decades this sagacious conclusion turned out to be an accurate though
gloomy forecast. After all, in the global historical long-range perspective, CO2
content in the atmosphere had been changing stably with variations of about 20 ppm,
for at least 11,000 years before the industrial epoch. In this long-term context the
anthropogenic increase of atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm for the last 200 years is a
dramatic change in the global carbon cycle. This increase is connected with emissions
Table 1.1. Characteristics of the most important greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse Lifetime Anthropogenic Average Distribution Increase Percent

gas in the emission concentration in the in of
atmosphere (MtC) (n) atmosphere speed total
(yr) (%) (%) (%)
CO2 3±5 1,585.7 (84) 362 ppmv 76 0.5 99.438
NOx 100±150 97.5 (5) 308 ppbv 6 0.25 0.471
CH4 11 175.8 (9) 1,815 ppbv 13 1.0 0.084
Fluorocarbons 75±111 31.4 (2) 0.34±0.54 5 7 0.007

(HCFC, HFC, ppbv
PFC)
ppmv parts per million by volume, ppbv parts per billion by volume.
to the atmosphere of 400 petagrams of C (PgC)1 during this period mainly due to
deforestation and fossil fuel burning.
Numerous long-term observations in various latitudinal belts show a high level of
correlation between temperature and CO2 content. The atmosphere±ocean interac-
tion contributes most to this dependence. Though the atmosphere and the ocean are
in equilibrium with respect to CO2 exchange, this equilibrium is still regularly
violated. The most serious causes of this violation are
(1) SST variations;

(2) changes in ocean volume; and
(3) changes in the regime of the vertical circulation of the ocean.
In general, the eciency of these causes can be characterized by the following

ratio of the forcing on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The ®rst cause
contributes about 65% to the change of CO2 partial pressure in the atmosphere
( pa ). The remaining 35% are contributed by the second and third causes. Quantita-
tively, this relationship is characterized by a 6% increase of atmospheric CO2 partial
pressure per 1 C increase of the temperature of the ocean's upper layer. Also, a 1%
decrease of the ocean volume raises pa by 3%. On the whole, as Perry (2001) notes,
understanding the role of the atmosphere±ocean system in global changes requires a
study of its dynamics with consideration of various kinds of information over a long
historical period. Of course, it is reasonable here to use the respective models and
data from the paleocenographic record. This is only possible by coordinating various
programs on the study of the atmosphere±ocean system.
An assessment of the greenhouse eect requires a complex consideration of the
interaction of all processes of energy transformation on Earth. However, in the
diversity of processes (from astronomical to biological) that aect the climate system
on various time scales, there exists a hierarchy in their signi®cance. But this hierarchy
cannot be constant, since the role of some processes can vary widely in their sig-
ni®cance for climatic variations. Consideration of one factor in isolation simpli®es
the analysis of its impact on climate. In fact, the impact of the greenhouse eect is
determined by surface temperature TL exceeding eective temperature Te . The
Earth's surface temperature TL is a function of surface emissivity . The eective
temperature Te is a function of emissivity of the atmosphere±land±ocean system. In
general, the parameters and depend on many factors, in particular on the CO2
concentration in the atmosphere. There are a lot of both simple and complicated
numerical models where attempts have been made to parameterize these depen-
dences. Unfortunately, there is not a single model that can meet the requirements
of adequacy and reliably describe the prehistory of the climatic trends on Earth.
Nevertheless, we can state that the greenhouse eect depends non-linearly on the
dierence TL Te (i.e., on atmospheric turbidity), especially in the long-wave region.
The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the stronger the atmospheric turbidity.
The strongest eect of CO2 on atmospheric turbidity is in the long-wave region
1
A petagram is equal to 10 15 grams.
12 mm±18 mm. This eect is weaker in the wavelength intervals 7 mm±8 mm, 9 mm±
10 mm, 2.0 mm, 2.7 mm, and 4.3 mm. It is clear that with the increasing partial pressure
of CO2 in the atmosphere the role of various bands of CO2 will grow, and this means
that, with intensi®ed CO2 absorption bands, the upward long-wave radiation ¯ux will
decrease. At the same time, the downward long-wave radiation ¯ux on the Earth
surface will increase. From the available estimates, a reduction of the upward
and increase of the downward ¯uxes are estimated at 2.5 W m 3 and 1.3 W m 2 ,
respectively.
Thus, to estimate the level of the greenhouse eect due to CO2 and other
GHGs (Table 1.2), it is necessary to know how to predict their concentration in
the atmosphere, with all feedbacks in their global biogeochemical cycle taken into
account (Watson et al., 2000). This problem touches on several spheres of
science: biogeochemistry, geochemistry, soil science, ecology, agrichemistry, geology,
Table 1.2. Greenhouse gases and global warming potentials (GWPs).
Gas 100-year DGWP

GWP (%)
Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) 1 55
Methane (CH4 ) 21 17
Nitrous oxide (N2 O) 310 5
HFC-23 (CHF3 ) 11,700 0.96
HFC-125 (C2 HF5 ) 2,800 0.75
HFC-134a (CH2 FCF3 ) 1,300 0.34
HFC-143a (CF3 CH3 ) 3,800 0.75
HFC-152a (CH3 CHF2 ) 140 0.28
HFC-227ea (C3 HF7 ) 2,900 0.69
HFC-236fa (C3 H2 F6 ) 6,300 0.75
HFC-43-10mee (C5 H2 F10 ) 1,300 0.75
Per¯uoromethane (CF4 ) 6,500 1.15
Per¯uoroethane (C2 F6 ) 9,200 0.75
Per¯uorobutane (C4 F10 ) 7,000 0.87
Per¯uorohexane (C6 F14 ) 7,400 0.75
Sulfur hexa¯uoride (SF6 ) 23,900 0.30

oceanology, physiology, and radiochemistry. The present methods of global ecoinfor-

matics enable the knowledge accumulated in these ®elds to be combined.
Of course, the global cycle of chemical elements should be studied not only to be
able to assess the climatic consequences of anthropogenic activity but also to under-
stand the consequences on environmental dynamics from the viewpoint of the quality
and possibility of life. Since the cycles of the chemical elements in nature are closely
connected with living substance activity, we can single out the geological, biogenic,
and biological cycles of this rotation. The biogenic cycle includes sub-cycles, such as
biogeochemical, biogeocenotic, and geochemical. Tables 1.3 through 1.9 give some
estimates and parameters of these cycles.
1.1.2 Biogeochemical cycles in land ecosystems

Land ecosystems play an important role in the dynamics of biogeochemical cycles on
Earth. Anthropogenic changes in vegetation cover aects biogeochemical cycles and,
thereby, other processes, climate included. The most well-known and important
biogeochemical cycles include the cycles of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus,
and water. Biogeochemical cycles always involve equilibrium states: a balance in
the cycling of the element between land surface compartments. Chemical elements
participate in the processes of photosynthesis and respiration of plants, as well as
their dying o, these processes form spatial transport of chemical elements between
compartments and elements of land ecosystems. The most characteristic features of
the biogeochemical cycles of individual chemical elements are as follows:
. The nitrogen cycle is a complicated biogeochemical cycle because it involves

living parts and non-living parts including water, land, and air. Nitrogen is a
very important element in that it is part of both proteins, present in the composi-
tion of the amino acids that make up proteins, and nucleic acids such as DNA
and RNA, present in nitrogenous bases. The largest reservoir of nitrogen is the
atmosphere, in which about 78% of nitrogen is contained as nitrogen gas (N2 ).
Nitrogen gas is ``®xed'' in a process called nitrogen ®xation. Nitrogen ®xation
combines nitrogen with oxygen to create nitrates (NO3 ).
. The oxygen cycle is the biogeochemical cycle that describes the movement of
oxygen within and between its three main reservoirs: the atmosphere, the bio-
sphere, and the lithosphere. The main driving factor of the oxygen cycle is
photosynthesis, which is responsible for the modern Earth's atmosphere and life.
. The carbon cycle is the biogeochemical cycle by which carbon is exchanged
between the biosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere of the Earth.
The cycle is usually thought of as four major reservoirs of carbon interconnected
by pathways of exchange. The reservoirs are the atmosphere, the terrestrial
biosphere (which usually includes freshwater systems and non-living organic
material, such as soil carbon), the oceans, and sediments.
. The phosphorus cycle is the biogeochemical cycle that describes the movement of
phosphorus through the lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. Unlike many
other biogeochemicals, the atmosphere does not play a signi®cant role in the
Table 1.3. Average dry air composition.
Gas Molecular Average concentration

weight (%)
By volume By weight
Nitrogen, N2 28.016 78.084 75.53
Oxygen, O2 32.000 20.946 23.14
Carbon dioxide, CO2 44.010 0.0325 0.046
5
Carbon oxide, CO (0.8±5) 10
5 5
Nitrogen protoxide, N2 O 44.01 (2±5) 10 7.6(10
6 4
Nitric oxide, NO 10 ±10
6 4
Nitrogen dioxide, NO2 10 ±10
Sulphur dioxide, SO2 7 10 7 ±10 4
Ozone, O3 48.000 (0±5) 10 6 ±5 10 5

(0-1) 10 5 ±10 4
4
Ammonia, NH3 10
5
Formaldehyde, HCHO 10
5
Xenon, Xe 131.3 (8.7-9.0) 10-6 (3.6-3.7) 10
5 6
Hydrogen, H2 2.016 5 10 3 10
4 4
Krypton, Kr 83.8 (1.14±1.2) 10 (2.9±3.3) 10
4 5
Methane, CH4 16.04 (1.2±2.0) 10 (7.75±9) 10
4 5
Helium, He 4.003 (5.24±5.3) 10 (7.2±7.4) 10
3 3
Neon, Ne 20.183 1.818 10 1.25 10
40
Argon, Ar 39.944 0.934 1.27
Water vapor, H2 O 4
16 18
Radon, Rn 222.0 (0.06±0.45) 10 6 10
movements of phosphorus, because phosphorus and phosphorus-based com-

pounds are usually solids at the typical ranges of temperature and pressure found
on Earth.
. The essential steps of the sulfur cycle are
(1) Mineralization of organic sulfur to the inorganic form, hydrogen sul®de
(H2 S).
(2) Oxidation of sul®de and elemental sulfur (S) and related compounds to
sulfate (SO 24 ).
Table 1.4. Evaluation of some parameters of the global cycle of chemical elements.
Parameter Parameter estimation
Coecient of molecular diusion in the air at temperature

Ta 0 C and pressure 1 atm.:
Hydrogen 0.634
Water vapors 0.250
Oxygen 0.178
Carbon dioxide 0.139
1 1
Absolute gas constant, cal mol K 1.9872
Atmospheric mass (t):

Total atmosphere (5.2±5.51) 10 15
Troposphere (up to 11 km) 4 10 15
Quantity of moles in the atmosphere 1.8 10 20
Organic mass in photosynthesis (billion tons per year) 100

Land vegetation (%) 66
Plankton and algae (%) 34
Balance of photosynthesis (billion tons per year)

Water consumption 130
Oxygen emission 155
Number of active volcanoes:

Lava 527
Mud 220
Number of molecules in the atmosphere per square km 2.1 10 35
World metal consumption (billion tons per year)

Iron 38
Aluminum, copper, zinc, lead 2
Other 0.3
(3) Reduction of sulfate to sul®de.

(4) Microbial immobilization of sulfur compounds and subsequent incorpora-
tion in the organic form of sulfur.
. The water cycle is the continuous circulation of water within the Earth's
hydrosphere. As water moves through the cycle, it changes state between liquid,
solid, and gas phases.
. Hydrogen is one of the constituents of water. It recycles as in other biogeochem-
ical cycles. It is actively involved with the other cycles like the carbon cycle,
nitrogen cycle, and sulfur cycle.
A detailed description of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen,

phosphorus, sulfur, and water in land ecosystems has been given in a work of
Table 1.5. Character and origin of basic substances polluting the atmosphere.
Pollutant character Pollutant origin
Gases
Carbon dioxide Natural and industrial potential carbon sources exist: volcanic
activity, living organism respiration, fossil fuel combustion,
cement production, changes in land use. Natural CO2 ¯uxes into
and out of the atmosphere exceed the human contribution by
more than an order of magnitude. The rise in atmospheric CO2
concentration closely parallels the emission history from fossil
fuels and land use changes.
Carbon monoxide Carbon monoxide is an odorless, colorless, and toxic gas.

Sources of carbon monoxide: volcanic activity, internal
combustion engines, unvented kerosene and gas space heaters,
generators and other gasoline-powered equipment, tobacco
smoke.
Hydrocarbons Hydrocarbons are the simplest organic compounds that consist

of only C and H atoms. Main sources of hydrocarbons are
plants, bacteria, and internal combustion engines. Almost all
usable supplies of hydrocarbons are obtained from combustion
of coal, petroleum, and natural gas.
Organic compounds An organic compound is any member of a large class of

chemical compounds whose molecules contain carbon:
carbonates, carbon oxides, and cyanides. Most organic
compounds today are arti®cially produced: chemical industry,
waste combustion, and dierent fuels.
Sulfuric gas and other Sulfuric gas is the chemical compound with the formula SO2 .
sulfur derivatives This important gas is the main byproduct of combustion of
sulfur compounds and is of signi®cant environmental concern.
SO2 is produced by volcanoes, sea breezes, fossil fuel
combustion, bacteria, and in various industrial processes.
Nitrogen derivatives Bacteria, anaerobic micro-organisms, and burning.
Radioactive substances The principal sources of radionuclides released into the

environment include nuclear weapon testing; fallout from
accidents such as the Chernobyl accident in 1986 or from
foundering of nuclear submarines; from the dumping of nuclear
waste into the deep ocean and from discharges from nuclear
power plants and nuclear reprocessing plants.
(continued)
Table 1.5 (cont.)
Pollutant character Pollutant origin
Particles
Heavy metals, mineral Volcanic activity, meteorites, wind erosion, mist spray, industry,
aggregates internal combustion engines.
Organic substances Forest ®res, chemical industry, various fuels, waste burning,
(natural and agriculture (pesticides).
manufactured)
Radioactive aerosols Aerosols containing radionuclides are called radioactive aerosols.

They have natural and arti®cial origin. Arti®cial radioactive
aerosols are formed during nuclear explosions, in accelerator
tunnels during operation, and during heating operation of
activated metals.
Table 1.6. Classi®cation of atmospheric pollutants. From Jacobson (2002a,b), Straub (1989).
Basic class Subclasses Typical elements Commentaries
Inorganic Oxides of nitrogen Nitrogen dioxide, nitric One of the principal

gases oxide pollutants is sulfur dioxide,
Oxides of sulfur Sulfuric acid, sulfur which is a corrosive
dioxide acid gas that combines
Other inorganics Carbon monoxide, with water vapor in the
chlorine, ozone, atmosphere to produce
hydrogen sul®de, acid rain.
hydrogen ¯uoride,
ammonia
Organic Hydrocarbons Benzene, butadiene, There are two main groups

gases butene, ethylene, of hydrocarbons of concern:
isooctane, methane volatile organic compounds
Aldehydes, Acetone, formaldehyde (VOCs) and polycyclic
ketones aromatic hydrocarbons
Other organics Acids, alcohols, (PAHs).
chlorinated
hydrocarbons,
peroxyacyl nitrates,
polynuclear aromatics
Aerosols Solid particulate Dust, smoke Airborne particulate matter

matter varies widely in its physical
Liquid Fumes, oil mists, and chemical composition,
particulates polymeric reaction source and particle size.
products.
Table 1.7. Assessment of the annual volume of particles with radius less than 20 mm emitted to
the atmosphere. From Jacobson (2002a, b).
Particle type Particle ¯ow

(10 6 t yr 1 )
Natural particles, soil and rock particles 100±500
Particles from forest ®res and combustion of timber industry waste 3±150
Marine droplets 300
Volcanic dust 25±150
Particles generated in gas production

Sulfates from H2 S 130±200
Ammonium salts from HN3 80±270
Nitrates from NOx 60±430
Hydrocarbons from vegetable aggregates 75±200
Particles as a result of manufacturing 10±90
Table 1.8. Sources of atmospheric pollution.
Pollution source Pollutant
Natural
Volcanoes, fumaroles, solfataras Gases, volcanic dust, mercury vapors
Natural surges of natural gas and oil Hydrocarbons
Mercury deposits Mercury vapors
Sul®de deposits Sulfuric gas
Radioactive ore deposits Radon
Wind blowing from surface of seas and oceans Chlorides, oil, sul®ds
Underground coal ®res CO2 , CO, SO2 , hydrocarbons
Natural forest and steppe ®res Smoke
Plant transpiration Water vapors, aromatic and other
¯ying materials
Anthropogenic
Incineration of hard and ¯uid organic material CO2 , CO, SO2 , lead, hydrocarbons,
mercury vapors, cadmium, nitric
oxides
Metallurgy of black, colored, and rare metals Dust, SO2 , mercury vapors, metals
Atomic industry Radioactive materials
Nuclear blasts Radioactive isotopes
Cement industry Dust
Building blasts Dust
Forest and steppe ®res arising due to humans Smoke
Oil and gas extraction Hydrocarbons
Motor transport CO, smog, nitric oxides
Table 1.9. Characteristics of some atmospheric components depending on their lifetime.
Component Length of time of life in the atmosphere
Carbon dioxide 3±5 years
Carbon monoxide 0.1±3 years
Water vapor 9±10 days
Sulfur dioxide 3 days
Ozone 10 days
Hydrogen chloride 3±5 days
Nitric oxide 5 days
Nitrogen dioxide 5 days
Nitrogen protoxide 100±120 years
Ammonia 2±5 days
Methane 3 years
Freons 50±70 years
Kondratyev et al. (2003b). The main reservoirs of these elements are biomass and soil,
between which matter exchange takes place through the respiration of plants, their
photosynthesis, and dying o. Modeling of this exchange requires knowledge of the
spatial structure of vegetation cover and its classi®cation.
. Population density
. Potential natural vegetation
. Cropland extent from 1700 to present
. Grazing land extent
. Built-up land extent
. Major crops extent
. Land suitability for cultivation.
Of course, an accurate assessment of the ¯uxes of chemical elements in the

atmosphere±vegetation±soil system is only possible with a detailed inventory of land
covers. For instance, Fang et al. (2001) have undertaken such an inventory for seven
time periods over the territory of China, including both planted and natural forests. It
was shown that a maximum rate (0.035 PgC yr 1 ) of carbon assimilation from the
atmosphere was observed between 1989 and 1993. Under this, dierent types of forest
had various time periods for a maximum rate of carbon assimilation. This con®rms
the fact that for accurate and reliable calculation of carbon ¯uxes in the atmosphere±
vegetation±soil system we need to understand the characteristics of vegetation covers
of dierent types distributed in space and time. And since there is no such concen-
trated data, all available estimates of CO2 sinks on land cannot be considered reliable.
This is con®rmed by data of the structural analysis of forest ecosystem biodiversity in
South-East Asia, the Far East, and Japan held by the Institute for Global Environ-
mental Strategies (IGES), in which estimates of the rates of forest degradation are
given (Inoue and Isozaki, 2003). As Austin et al. (2004) have shown, the sporadic
nature of water availability in arid and deserted territories is the cause of great shifts
in the C/N ratio and, hence, considerable heterogeneities in the biogeochemical cycles
of these territories.
From the estimates of Stoll-Kleemann and O'Riordan (2004), about 70% of the
land surface are anthropogenically aected causing changes in biodiversity thousands
of times faster than would take place naturally. Global biodiversity cannot be
maintained without changing the strategy of human behaviour in the sphere of
environmental protection. Therefore, we should expect a crisis in biodiversity, unless
international cooperation toward its protection becomes eective.
1.1.3 The regular dependence of water ecosystems on biogeochemical cycles

The global scales of variability of the biogeochemical cycles of many elements raises
the problem of how to control the state of water ecosystems not only taking local
sources of pollution into account, but also, and to a greater extent, distant transports
of chemical matter and biological pollution. The input of various substances into
water ecosystems leads to a degradation of ®sh populations and a change in sanitary
conditions for the population in adjacent regions. The ways undesired substances get
into water ecosystems are diverse, including river and shore runs-o as basic high-
ways of pollutant propagation. Therefore, the protection of water ecosystems under
the present-day conditions of globalization requires technologies and systems to
control additional ¯uxes of nitrogen and phosphorus which minimize oxygen balance
violation and preserve the natural trends of living element biomass. As Fourie et al.
(2004) noted, it is especially important for water ecosystems in many regions of
Africa, where the atmosphere is the sole external source of additional biogenic
elements.
Inland water ecosystems are divided into freshwater and saltwater ecosystems.
The simplest scheme of life organization in these ecosystems consists in interactions
of living elements with abiotic components (penetration of light, water currents,
dissolved nutrient concentrations, and suspended solids). The producers supply O2
to the aquatic systems through photosynthesis. This O2 is then used by the producers,
consumers, and decomposers through aerobic respiration. CO2 enters an aquatic
system from the atmosphere and through the aerobic respiration by producers,
consumers, and decomposers and is removed by photosynthesizing producers. The
concentration of oxygen in water depends on the amount of pollutant entering the
ecosystem. These pollutants, depending on their type, can aect aquatic organisms
directly, and through the process of eutrophication indirectly. As a result, the input of
pollutants to the water ecosystem leads to a change of its role in the gas exchange with
the atmosphere.
There are no fewer than 1,500 substances recognized as pollutants in freshwater
ecosystems. Among them are the following:
. Acids and alkalis. Most freshwater lakes, streams, and ponds have a natural pH
in the range of 6 to 8. Acid deposition has many harmful ecological eects when
the pH of most aquatic systems falls below 6 and especially below 5.
. Anions. The most toxic form of cyanide is free cyanide, which includes the
cyanide anion itself and hydrogen cyanide, HCN, either in a gaseous or aqueous
state. One teaspoon of a 2% cyanide solution can kill a person.
. Detergents. There are two kinds of detergents with dierent characteristics:
phosphate detergents and surfactant detergents. Detergents that contain phos-
phates are highly caustic, and surfactant detergents are very toxic.
. Gases. Some gases that can harm aquatic freshwater life include chlorine,
ammonia, and methane.
. Heat. Respiration and growth rates may be changed and these may alter the
feeding rates of organisms. The reproduction period may be brought forward
and development may be speeded up. Parasites and diseases may also be aected.
An increase of temperature also means a decrease in oxygen solubility.
. Heavy metals. The most common heavy-metal pollutants are arsenic, cadmium,
chromium, copper, nickel, lead, and mercury. Some metals, such as manganese,
iron, copper, and zinc, are essential micronutrients. Each type of heavy metal in
its own way aects water ecosystem biochemistry and can accumulate in bottom
deposits and in the biomass of living elements.
. Nutrients. Too many nutrients stimulate the rapid growth of plants and algae,
clogging waterways and sometimes creating blooms of toxic blue-green algae.
This process is called eutrophication.
. Organic pollution. Organic pollution occurs when large quantities of organic
compounds, which act as substrates for micro-organisms, are released into water-
courses. Organic pollutants consist of proteins, carbohydrates, fats, and nucleic
acids in a multiplicity of combinations. Organic pollution aects the organisms
living in a stream by lowering the oxygen available in the water.
. Pathogens. A pathogen is an organism that produces a disease.
The process of eutrophication is the most widespread phenomenon in the life of

water ecosystems. Too much nitrogen and phosphorus leads to a rapid growth of
phytoplankton or algae biomass, and as a result, the content of oxygen in the water
decreases sharply, and the mortality of living organisms grows substantially. Gas
exchange with the atmosphere is violated. From available estimates, the share of
eutrophicated lakes in dierent continents constitutes Asia (54%), Europe (53%),
North America (48%), South America (41%), and Africa (28%). In the present-day
world, it is dicult to dierentiate the anthropogenic process of eutrophication from
the natural one because of globalized biogeochemical cycles and dicult control of
the ¯uxes of chemical elements through the atmosphere and river run-o.
Sec. 1.2] 1.2 Interaction between globalization processes and biogeochemical cycles 15
1.2 INTERACTION BETWEEN GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES AND

BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
1.2.1 The interplay between nature and society

Globalization processes are so versatile and complicated that their study, parameter-
ization, and prediction require a trans-disciplinary approach. Van der Leeuw and
Aschan-Leygonie (2000) have stated that in both physical and life sciences (and
especially in social sciences) it is impossible to avoid a trans-disciplinary approach
to environment problems. Here the theory of complex systems saves the day because
it makes it possible to understand and interpret the dierences between ``cultural''
and ``natural'' processes, as well as to some extent to explain the dierence between
the notions of ``resilience'' and ``sustainability''. The resilience of socio-natural
systems in many situations depends on the capacity of the human communities
involved to process all the information necessary to deal eectively with the complex
dynamics of the system as a whole. Rosenberg (2001) develops an erudite and lively
critique of the contemporary globalization theory, which most experts connect with
the notion of sustainability. His arguments are that fashionable preoccupations with
spatiality have generated deep intellectual confusions that stand in the way of a clear
understanding of the modern world. It is shown how these confusions ultimately
condemn globalization theorists to a peculiar and quixotic stance. In general, the
advocates of globalization believe that all global and regional problems can be solved
automatically through free trade. An unusual examination of Chomsky's libertine
views on global economic hegemony has been given by Fox (2001). The notion of
``free trade'' as a universal means to solve the economic problems of Third World
countries is a direct deception and leads to their further enslavement by big
companies. Even in the case of former U.S.S.R. countries and Russia, as a large
and rich-in-natural-resources country, this ``solution'' has turned out to be counter-
productive (Nechaev, 1997; Kondratyev, 2005; Malinetskii, 2007).
The program put forward by the international organization ``Nature and Society
Forum'' is dedicated to the study of the nature±society interaction. The main goal of
this program is to promote the health and well-being of human beings and the
environment through
(1) a deeper understanding by the community of the processes of life, the place
occupied by humans in nature, as well as the health and environmental issues
facing us today;
(2) encouraging informed discussions and debates on the practical meaning of this
understanding, for individuals, families, organizations, and for society as a
whole; and
(3) communicating the outcome of the Forum's activities as widely as possible
through publications and the Internet.
These and similar general postulates direct, to some extent, public opinion toward
regulating human±environment relationships with the view of getting a reasonable
and well-balanced result. Unfortunately, it is impossible with this approach to divide

the world population into groups of in¯uence. Such a division into countries and
groups of countries with the same level of economic development cannot be con-
sidered optimal. A mechanism for calculation of the level of survivability of one
group suggested by Kondratyev et al. (2004a) enables us to develop a global model of
in¯uence and to ®nd a solution with it. This approach will be discussed in detail in
Section 6.6.2.
The problem of nature±society interaction in the context of global change in the
environment and climate has been discussed in detail at the All-World Conference on
Climate Change in Moscow (Izrael et al., 2004) and at the APEC Summit-2007
(September 2007, Sydney, Australia). The ``Sydney Declaration on Climate Change''
was signed on September 8th, 2007 by 21 APEC leaders. It indicates the wish of
signatories to work toward non-binding `ìnspirational'' goals on energy eciency per
unit of GDP. In this connection, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said that
21 leaders agreed on three very important and quite speci®c things: ``Firstly, the need
for a long-term inspirational, global emissions reduction goal . . . Secondly, the need
for all nations, no matter what their stage of development, to contribute, according to
their own capacities and their own circumstances, to reducing greenhouse gases.
Thirdly, we have agreed on speci®c APEC goals on energy intensity and forestry
and we've also agreed on the important role of clean coal technologies.''
In particular, Bolin (2004), while emphasizing the anthropogenic character of the
observed climate change, still recognizes the uncertainties in assessments of sensitivity
of the climate system to human impacts. This uncertainty leads to the fact that neither
models nor expert estimates can determine in detail the possible characteristics of
climate changes or how rapidly and where they will take place, and to what extent
they will aect the well-being of population. Here a limited knowledge of biogeo-
chemical cycles and the role played in them by the human factor contributes most to
this uncertainty. The impact of the growing concentration of CO2 and aerosols in the
atmosphere on greenhouse warming is directly proportional, and this takes place
both naturally and due to anthropogenic factors.
The greenhouse eect estimated by the equivalent concentration of CO2 and
aerosol in the atmosphere constitutes 2.7 W m 2 and 1.3 W m 2 , respectively. But
here we should point out the functional dierence between these impacts consisting in
that whereas the life time of aerosols in the atmosphere is a week to a month, GHGs
can reside in the atmosphere from decades to centuries. It is in this dierence that the
inertial uncertainty of climate changes lies.
1.2.2 Sustainable development and environmental disasters

Climate changes manifest themselves both on global and regional scales. Natural
catastrophes are one manifestation of these changes. Their intensity and number
increased year on year. A serious increase in the number of great natural catastrophes
was observed between 1960 and 2005. The frequency of these events more than
doubled during this period. Subsequent years were characterized by various
anomalous phenomena which con®rm the instability and poor predictability of the
occurrence of natural anomalies unfavorable for population. To con®rm this, it is
enough to mention some events that took place in 2007.
. The formation of subtropical storm Andrea on May 9, 2007 marked an earlier

beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. This was the second occasion in ®ve
years that a storm formed before the ocial season start date.
. Hurricane Dean (August 13±23, 2007) reaching speeds of 270 km hr 1 wreaked
havoc in the Caribbean and Mexico.
. Heatwaves aected vast territories of Europe. For instance, the air temperature
in Greece, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria reached 46 C in the shade, which
led to numerous forest ®res. The ones in Greece reached were pronounced a
national disaster.
. Unprecedented (at least for the last 60 years) ¯oods covered central and southern
territories of England, destroying a million houses and leaving tens of thousands
of people without electricity and drinking water.
As has been repeatedly mentioned, the interactive components of the present-day

climate system include a wide spectrum of natural and natural±anthropogenic sub-
systems and processes, without a complex study of which it is impossible to reliably
single out the prevailing trends in climate change. Here are some of the most
important (Kondratyev et al., 2006b; Levinson and Waple, 2004):
. Global water cycle. Impact of cloud feedbacks.

. Global carbon cycle. Water±carbon cycle interaction.
. Land use and land surface changes.
. Present-day trends in GHG content in the atmosphere and mechanisms to
control them.
. Interactions between the climate and productivity of land ecosystems. Land
ecosystem dynamics.
. Impact of climate regime shifts on marine ecosystems.
. Control of natural resources to neutralize the negative consequences of human
activities.
. Socio-economic aspects of ecodynamics and climate, and their analysis to
optimize land use strategy.
. Interactions between processes in the geosphere and biosphere, and their
dependence on space.
1.2.3 Greenhouse gases and climate

Infrared (IR) active gases, like water vapor (H2 O), carbon dioxide (CO2 ), ozone (O3 ),
methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxide (N2 O), chloro¯uorocarbons CFC-11 (CCl3 F) and
CFC-12 (CCl2 F2 ) naturally and anthropogenically present in the Earth's atmosphere,
absorb thermal IR radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and atmosphere. This
phenomenon is known as the `àtmospheric greenhouse eect'', and the IR active
gases responsible for the eect are referred to as ``greenhouse gases''. The rapid
increase in concentrations of GHGs since the industrial period began has given rise
to concern over the potential resultant climate changes. The total combination of
climatic eects is explained by the series of natural and anthropogenic processes
connected mainly with the biogeochemical cycle of CO2 . However, as has been
mentioned in publications (Kondratyev and Varotsos, 1995; Kondratyev, 1999b;
Kondratyev and Demirchian, 2000; Kelley, 1987), many scientists and even poli-
ticians draw conclusions on the problem of the ``greenhouse'' role of CO2 based
on one-sided estimates without consideration of many important feedbacks and
especially without consideration of the role of other GHGs. As follows from
numerous studies, this role is rather substantial.
. Although there is approximately 220 times more CO2 than methane in the
Earth's atmosphere (Keppler et al., 2006), each kilogram of CH4 averaged over
100 years, warms the Earth 23 times more strongly than the same mass of CO2 .
. Water vapor is the most important absorber (its share in the greenhouse eect
constitutes 36%±66%), and together with clouds it makes up 66%±85%. CO2
alone contributes 9%±26%, while O3 and other minor GHG absorbers contrib-
ute 7% and 8%, respectively.
As Monin and Shishkov (1990) noted, the diculty is assessing the change in
greenhouse eect with a change in the content of any gas in the atmosphere consists in
that the atmosphere±ocean±land system involves numerous positive and negative
feedbacks. Leaving out of account any of them can lead to rather distorted and
erroneous conclusions and estimates. So, for instance, with increasing CO2 content
and, hence, temperature, evaporation should intensify and, respectively, water vapor
content should increase, which, in its turn, absorbs additional energy and leads to a
new temperature increase. Moreover, when the temperature rises, CO2 solubility in
the ocean worsens. But at the same time, the albedo changes, and the regime of
aerosol removal from the atmosphere changes too. A 70% decrease (increase) of
the planetary albedo depending on clouds leads to an increase (decrease) of the
assimilated amount of solar energy, which leads to a warming (cooling) of climate.
Estimates of the present-day greenhouse eect vary round the value DT 33.2 K,
which is mainly formed due to water vapor (20.6 K, 62%), CO2 (2.4 K, 7.2%), nitrous
oxide (1.4 K, 4.2%), and CH4 (0.8 K, 2.4%).
1.2.4 Aerosols and climate

Aerosol particles in the atmosphere play a signi®cant role in climate change. They
in¯uence climate in two main ways, referred to as direct forcing and indirect forcing.
Many scienti®c groups study the aerosol eects on climate-forming processes by
developing various techniques to compute the ¯ow of solar radiation through an
atmosphere containing aerosols, clouds, and gases. Various conceptual aspects of the
climate problem are also discussed in numerous documents of international organ-
izations. In particular, the main conclusion of the summary of the IPCC 2001 report
(IPCC, 2001) which claims that an increasing body of observations gives a collective
picture of a warming world and most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is
likely to have been due to human activities.
It is to be regretted that the former Chairman of IPCC Working Group I (WG-I)
Professor J. Houghton in a recent article (Houghton, 2003) in the British newspaper
The Guardian, compared the threat of anthropogenic climate changes with weapons
of mass destruction and admonished the U.S.A. for their refusal to support the
concept of dangerous, anthropogenic global warming and thus the Kyoto Protocol.
No matter how paradoxical it may seem, such claims are in fact being made against
the background of an increasing understanding of the imperfections of current global
climate models and their still inadequate veri®cation. This makes predictions on the
basis of numerical modeling no more than conditional scenarios (Jaworowski, 1999;
Kondratyev, 1992, 1998b, 1999a, b, 2004a; Kondratyev and Galindo, 1997; Soon et
al., 2003). As for the U.S.A., we should welcome the huge eorts of this country to
support climate studies, manifested through both special attention to improvement of
observational systems and to developments in the ®eld of climate problems, in general
(Mahoney, 2003). The U.S. spends $2 billion a year on climate research. In 2004, the
U.S.A. spent $4.5 billion on these problems.
The statement of the Intergovernmental Group G-8 published on July 2, 2003
(WSSD, 2003) has justly emphasized that in the years to come eorts will be
concentrated on three directions.
. Strengthen international co-operation on global observation.

. Accelerate the research, development, and diusion of energy technologies.
. Agriculture and biodiversity.
The Earth's climate system has indeed changed markedly since the industrial
revolution, with some changes being of anthropogenic origin. The consequences of
climate change do present a serious challenge to the policy-makers responsible for
environmental policy, and this alone makes the acquisition of objective information
on climate change, of its impact and possible responses, most urgent. With this aim in
mind, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.N. Environmental
Program in 1988 set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and
divided it into three working groups (WGs) with spheres of responsibility for the
(1) scienti®c aspects of climate and its change (WG-I);

(2) eects on and adaptation to climate (WG-II);
(3) analysis of possibilities to limit (mitigate) climate changes (WG-III).
The IPCC has so far prepared ®ve detailed reports (Houghton, Jenkins, and
Ephraums, 1990; Watson, Zinyowera, and Moss, 1996; IPCC, 2001, 2005, 2007) as
well as several special reports and technical papers. Griggs and Noguer (2002) have
brie¯y reviewed the ®rst volume of the Third IPCC Report (TIR) prepared by WG-I
for the period June 1998±January 2001 with the participation of 122 leading authors
and 515 experts. Four hundred and twenty experts reviewed the ®rst volume and 23
experts edited it. Several hundred reviewers and representatives of many governments
made additional remarks. With the participation of delegates from 99 countries and
50 scientists recommended by the leading authors, the ®nal discussion of TIR was
held in Shanghai on January 17±20, 2001. A ``Summary for decision-makers'' was
approved after a detailed discussion by 59 specialists.
Analysis of the observational data as contained in TIR led to the conclusion that
global climate change is taking place. The IPCC Reports (IPCC, 2001, 2007) give a
detailed review of the observational data of the spatiotemporal variability of the
concentrations of various GHGs and aerosol in the atmosphere. The adequacy of
numerical models was discussed from the viewpoint of the climate-forming factors
and the usefulness of models to predict climate change in the future. The main
conclusion about anthropogenic impacts on climate was that ``there is new and
stronger evidence that most of the warming observed during the last 50 years has
been determined by human activity.'' According to all prognostic estimates consid-
ered in TIR, both SAT increase and sea level rise should take place during the 21st
century.
When characterizing the IPCC data for the empirical diagnostics of climate,
Folland et al. (2002) drew attention to the uncertainty of the de®nitions of some
basic concepts. According to IPCC terminology, climate changes are statistically
substantial variations of an average state or its variability, whose stability is preserved
for long time periods (decades and longer). Climate changes can be natural in origin
(connected both with internal processes and external impacts) and/or may be deter-
mined by anthropogenic factors, such as changes in atmospheric composition or land
use. This de®nition diers from that suggested in the Framework Climate Change
Convention (FCCC) where climate changes are only of anthropogenic origin in
contrast to natural climate change. In accordance with the IPCC terminology,
climatic variability means variations of the average state and other statistical char-
acteristics (MSD, repeatability of extreme events, etc.) of climate on every temporal
and spatial scale, beyond individual weather phenomena. Hence climate variability
can be both of natural (due to internal processes and external forcings) and anthro-
pogenic origin, and possess both internal and external variability. As Folland et al.
(2002) noted, seven key questions are most important for the diagnostics of observed
changes and climate variability.
(1) How signi®cant is climate warming?

(2) Is the currently observed warming signi®cant?
(3) How rapidly had the climate changed in the distant past?
(4) Have precipitation and atmospheric water content changed?
(5) Do changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean take place?
(6) Have climate variability and climate extremes changed?
(7) Are observed trends internally coordinated?
In order to answer the above questions, the reliability of observational data is

fundamental. Without such observational data adequate empirical diagnostics of
climate remains impossible. Yet the information concerning numerous meteoro-
logical parameters, so very important for documentation, detection, and attribution

of climate change, remains inadequate for the drawing of reliable conclusions. This is
especially true for the global trends of those parameters (e.g., precipitation), which
are characterized by great regional variability.
Folland et al. (2002) answered some of the questions above. A comparison of the
secular change of global average annual sea surface temperature (SST), land surface
air temperature (LSAT), and nocturnal air temperature (NAT) over the ocean for the
period 1861±2000 on the whole revealed some similarity, though the warming in the
1980s from LSAT data turned out to be stronger, and the NAT data showed a
moderate cooling at the end of the 19th century not demonstrated by SST data.
The global temperature trend can be interpreted cautiously as equivalent linear
warming over 140 years constituting 0.61 C at a 95% con®dence level with an
uncertainty range of 0.16 C. Later on, in 1901 a warming by 0.57 C took place
with an uncertainty range of 0.17 C. These estimates suggest that beginning with
the end of the 19th century, an average global warming by 0.6 C took place with the
interval of estimates corresponding to a 95% con®dence level equal to 0.4 C±0.8 C.
The spatial structure of the temperature ®eld in the 20th century was character-
ized by a comparatively uniform warming in the tropics and by a considerable
variability in extratropical latitudes. The warming between 1910 and 1945 was
initially concentrated in the northern Atlantic and adjacent regions. The Northern
Hemisphere was characterized by cooling between 1946 and 1975, while in the
Southern Hemisphere some warming was observed during this period. The tempera-
ture rise observed during the last decades (1970±2000) turns out, on the whole, to
have been globally synchronous and clearly manifested across Northern Hemisphere
continents in winter and spring. In some Southern Hemisphere regions and in the
Atlantic, however, a small all-year-round cooling was observed. A temperature
decrease in the northern Atlantic between 1960 and 1985 was later followed by an
opposite trend. On the whole, climate warming over the period of measurements was
more uniform in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. In
many continental regions between 1950 and 1993, the temperature increased more
rapidly at night than during daytime (this does not refer however to coastal regions).
The rate of temperature increase varied from 0.1 C to 0.2 C/10 years.
According to the data of aerological observations, the air temperature in the
lower and middle troposphere increased after 1958 at a rate of 0.1 C/10 years, but in
the upper troposphere (after 1960) it remained more or less constant. Combined
analysis of aerological and satellite information has shown that in the period
1979±2000 the temperature trend in the lower troposphere was weak, whereas near
the land surface it turned out to be statistically signi®cant and reached 0.16 0.06 C/
10 years. The statistically substantial trend of the dierence between the Earth's
surface and the lower troposphere constituted 0.13 0.06 C/10 years, which diers
from the data for the period 1958±1978, when the average global temperature in the
lower troposphere increased more rapidly (by 0.03 C/10 years) than near the surface.
The considerable dierences between the temperature trends in the lower troposphere
and near the surface are most likely to be real. So far, these dierences cannot be
convincingly explained. Climate warming in the Northern Hemisphere observed in
the 20th century was according to Folland et al. (2002) the most substantial over the
last 1,000 years.
Special attention has been paid in the IPCC Reports (IPCC, 2001, 2007) to the
possibility for predicting future climatic changes. The chaotic character of atmo-
spheric dynamics limits long-term weather forecasts to one or two weeks and prevents
the prediction of detailed climate change (e.g., it is impossible to predict precipitation
in the U.K. for the winter of 2050). However, it is possible to consider climate
projections; that is, to develop scenarios of probable climate changes due to the
continuing growth of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Such scenarios, if
credible, may be useful for decision-makers in the ®eld of ecological policy. The
basic method to make such scenarios tangible involves the use of numerical climate
models that simulate interactive processes in the atmosphere±ocean±land surface±
cryosphere±biosphere climatic system. As Collins and Senior (2002) noted, because
there are so many such models, the serious diculty arises as to which is the best one
to choose. As this problem of choice is insoluble, there remains the possibility of
comparing the climate scenarios obtained by using various models.
According to the IPCC recommendations, four levels of projection reliability are
considered.
(1) From reliable to very probable (in this case there is agreement between the results
for most models)
(2) Very probable (an agreement on new projections obtained with the latest models)
(3) Probable (new projections with an agreement for a small number of models)
(4) Restrictedly probable (model results are not certain but changes are physically
possible).
A principal diculty in giving substance to the projections is the impossibility of

determining agreed predictions on how GHG concentrations will evolve in future,
which makes it necessary to take into account all the various scenarios. The huge
thermal inertia of the World Ocean dictates the possibility of delayed climatic impacts
of GHG concentrations, which has already increased.
Calculations of annual average global SAT using the energy±balance climate
model with various scenarios of temporal variations of CO2 concentrations have led
to SAT intervals in 2020, 2050, and 2100 to be 0.3 C±0.9 C, 0.7 C±2.6 C, and 1.4 C±
5.8 C, respectively. Due to the thermal inertia of the ocean, delayed warming should
manifest itself within 0.1 C±0.2 C/10 years (such a delay can take place over several
decades).
The following conclusions can be attributed to the category of projections with
the highest reliability (Collins and Senior, 2002):
(1) surface air warming should be accompanied by tropospheric warming and

stratospheric cooling (the latter is due to a decrease of the upward long-
wave radiation ¯ux from the troposphere);
(2) faster warming on land compared with oceanic regions (as a result of the great
thermal inertia of the ocean), and faster warming in high-mountain regions
(due to albedo feedbacks);
(3) aerosol-induced atmospheric cooling restrains a SAT increase (new estimates
suggest a weaker manifestation of the aerosol impact);
(4) presence of warming minima in the North Atlantic and in the circumpolar
regions of the oceans in the Southern Hemisphere due to oceanic mixing;
(5) decrease of the snow and sea ice cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere;
(6) increase of the average global content of water vapor in the atmosphere,
enhancement of precipitation and evaporation, as well as intensi®cation of
the global water cycle;
(7) intensi®cation (on average) of precipitation in tropical and high latitudes, but
its attenuation in sub-tropical latitudes;
(8) increase of precipitation intensity (more substantial than expected as a result of
precipitation enhancement, on average);
(9) summertime decrease of soil moisture in the middle regions of the continents
due to intensi®ed evaporation;
(10) intensi®cation of the El NinÄo regime in the tropical Paci®c with a stronger
warming in eastern regions than in western ones, which is accompanied by an
eastward shift of precipitation zones;
(11) intensi®cation of the interannual variability of the summer monsoon in the
Northern Hemisphere;
(12) more frequent appearance of high-temperature extremes but infrequent occur-
rence of temperature minima (with an increasing amplitude of the diurnal
temperature course in many regions and with a greater enhancement of
nocturnal temperature minima compared with daytime maxima);
(13) higher reliability of conclusions about temperature changes compared with
those about precipitation;
(14) attenuation of thermohaline circulation (THC), which causes a decrease in
warming in the North Atlantic (the effect of THC dynamics cannot however
compensate for the warming in West Europe due to the growing concentration
of GHGs); and
(15) most intensive penetration of warming into the ocean depth in high latitudes
where vertical mixing is most intensive.
As for estimates characterized by a lower level of reliability, the conclusion (at

Level 4) about the lack of an agreed view on the changing frequency of storms in
middle latitudes, is of special interest here, as is a similar lack of agreement about the
changing frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones under global warming. An
important future task is to improve climate models aimed at reaching eventually a
level of reliability that would enable the prediction of climatic changes.
Allen (2002) discussed the basic conclusions contained in the ``Summary for
policy-makers'' (SPM) of the Third IPCC Report and especially of its main conclu-
sion that ``There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
during the last 50 years should be attributed to human activity.'' This conclusion
supplements the statement according to which ``. . . as follows from the present
climate models, it is very unlikely that the warming taking place during the last
100 years was determined only by the internal variability'' (``very unlikely'' means
that there is less than one chance in ten for an opposite statement to be well-founded).
McKitrick (2007) writes:
``The following concluding statement is not in the Fourth Assessment Report, but
was agreed on by the ISPM writers based on their review of the current evidence.
The Earth's climate is an extremely complex system and we must not understate
the diculties involved in analyzing it. Despite the many data limitations and
uncertainties, knowledge of the climate system continues to advance based on
improved and expanding data sets and improved understanding of meteoro-
logical and oceanographic mechanisms.
The climate in most places has undergone minor changes over the past 200
years, and the land-based surface temperature record of the past 100 years
exhibits warming trends in many places. Measurement problems, including
uneven sampling, missing data and local land-use changes, make interpretation
of these trends dicult. Other, more stable data sets, such as satellite, radiosonde
and ocean temperatures yield smaller warming trends. The actual climate change
in many locations has been relatively small and within the range of known natural
variability. There is no compelling evidence that dangerous or unprecedented
changes are underway.
The available data over the past century can be interpreted within the frame-
work of a variety of hypotheses as to cause and mechanisms for the measured
changes. The hypothesis that greenhouse gas emissions have produced or are
capable of producing a signi®cant warming of the Earth's climate since the start of
the industrial era is credible, and merits continued attention. However, the
hypothesis cannot be proven by formal theoretical arguments, and the available
data allow the hypothesis to be credibly disputed.
Arguments for the hypothesis rely on computer simulations, which can never
be decisive as supporting evidence. The computer models in use are not, by
necessity, direct calculations of all basic physics but rely upon empirical approx-
imations for many of the smaller scale processes of the oceans and atmosphere.
They are tuned to produce a credible simulation of current global climate
statistics, but this does not guarantee reliability in future climate regimes. And
there are enough degrees of freedom in tunable models that simulations cannot
serve as supporting evidence for any one tuning scheme, such as that associated
with a strong eect from greenhouse gases.
There is no evidence provided by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report
that the uncertainty can be formally resolved from ®rst principles, statistical
hypothesis testing or modeling exercises. Consequently, there will remain an
unavoidable element of uncertainty as to the extent that humans are contributing
to future climate change, and indeed whether or not such change is a good or bad
thing.''
Clearly, the reality of such a statement depends on adequate modeling of the

observed climatic variability. Analysis of the results of the relevant calculations using
six dierent models has shown that three of six models reproduce climate variability
on time scales from 10 to 50 years which agrees with observational data.
Another conclusion in SPM (Third Assessment Report) is that ``reconstruction
of data on climate for the last 1000 years shows that the present warming is unusual
and it is unlikely that it can be of only natural origin'' (`ùnlikely'' means that there is
less than one chance in three for an opposite conclusion).
This conclusion is supplemented with the following: ``Numerical modeling of the
response to only natural disturbing forces . . . does not explain the warming that took
place in the second half of the 20th century.'' This view is based on analysis of the
results from the numerical modeling of changes in the average global SAT during the
last 50 years. It follows from this that a consideration of natural forcings (solar
activity, volcanic eruptions) has demonstrated a climatic cooling (mainly due to
large-scale eruptions in 1982 and 1991) which has allowed the conclusion that the
impact of only natural climatic factors is unlikely. However, there is only one chance
in three that it was so: such a conclusion is based on indirect information concerning
natural forcings in the past.
The results of numerical modeling cannot explain the pre-1940 climate warming
by only taking anthropogenic factors into account, but are quite adequate when both
natural and anthropogenic impacts are considered (GHGs and sulfate aerosol). As
was mentioned in the SPM of the TAR, ``these results . . . do not exclude possibilities
of contributions of other forcings.'' It is possible therefore that good agreement
between the calculated and observed secular trends of SAT may in part be determined
by the forcings that were not taken into consideration. Another important illustration
of the inadequacy of the numerical modeling results is their dierence from
observations concerning temperature changes near the Earth's surface and in the
free troposphere. If, as according to models, the tropospheric temperature increases
more rapidly than near the surface, then the analysis of observational data between
1979 and 2000 reveals that the temperature increase in the free troposphere is slower
and probably is absent.
When assessing the content of the IPCC 2001 Report, Griggs and Noguer (2002)
argued that this report
(1) contains a most complete description of the current ideas about the known and
unknown aspects of the climate system and the associated factors;
(2) is based on the knowledge of an international group of experts;
(3) is prepared based on open and professional reviewing; and
(4) is based on scienti®c publications.
Sadly, none of these statements can be convincingly substantiated. The IPCC

2001 Report has therefore been strongly criticized in the scienti®c literature (Babu et
al., 2004; Borisenkov, 2003; McKitrick, 2002; Soon et al., 2003; Victor, 2001), the
most important items of which we shall now discuss. The problems of global warming
were discussed earlier (Loginov and Mikutski, 2000; Kondratyev and Demirchian,
2000; Boehmer-Christiansen, 2000; Adamenko and Kondratyev, 1999). In principle,

the positions of the anthropogenic global-warming supporters and ``climate skeptics''
have not changed since the IPCC (2007) publication.
1.2.4.1 Empirical diagnostics of the global climate

The main cause of contradictions in studies of the present climate and its changes is
the inadequacy of available observational databases. They remain incomplete and of
poor quality. In this connection, Mohr and Bridge (2003) carried out a thorough
analysis of how the global observing system has evolved. As is well known, climate is
characterized by many parameters, such as
. air temperature and humidity near the Earth surface and in the free atmosphere;
. precipitation (liquid or solid);
. amount of cloud cover and the height of its lower and upper boundaries, and the
microphysical and optical properties of clouds;
. radiation budget and its components, and the microphysical and optical
parameters of atmospheric aerosols;
. atmospheric chemical composition, and more.
However, the empirical analysis of climatic data is usually limited by the results
of SAT observations, with data series available for no more than 100±150 years. Even
these data series are heterogeneous, especially with regard to the global database,
which is the main source of information for proving evidence for the global-warming
idea. Also, it should be borne in mind that the globally averaged secular trend of SAT
values is based, to a large extent, on the use of imperfect observed data of SST.
The most important (and controversial) conclusion by Jacobson (2002a, b) con-
cerning the anthropogenic nature of present-day climate change is based on analysis
of the SAT and SST combined data (i.e., on the secular trend of mean average annual
global surface temperature, GST). In this connection, two questions arise:
. ®rst, about the information content of the notion of GST (this problem was
formulated by Essex and McKitrick (2002); and
. second, about the reliability of GST values determined, in particular, by
fragmentary data for the Southern Hemisphere, as well as the still unresolved
problem of urban ``heat islands'' (Loginov and Mikutski, 2000).
Studies on the reliability of the SAT observations are continuing from the
perspective of observational techniques. For more than 100 years SAT was measured
using glass thermometers, but now arrangements to protect the thermometers from
direct solar radiation and wind have been repeatedly changed. This dictates a neces-
sity for ®ltering out SAT data to provide homogeneous data series. In the period from
April to August 2000 at the Nebraska State University station (40 83 0 N; 96 67 0 W),
Hubbard and Lin (2002) carried out comparative SAT observations over smooth
grass cover using various means of protecting thermometers. At the same time, direct
solar radiation and wind speed were measured. Analysis of the observations has
shown that dierences from observed data can reach several tenths of a degree.
Therefore, a technique was proposed to increase the homogeneity of observation
series which substantially increases the homogeneity of the series. However, it does
not permit the exclusion of the eect of calibration errors and drift of the temperature
sensor's sensitivity.
For diagnostics of the observational data, emphasis should be put on the analysis
of climate variability in which consideration not of averagesÐbut momentsÐof
higher orders is important. Unfortunately, there have been no attempts to use this
approach. The same approach refers to estimates of the internal correlation of
observation series. McKitrick (2002), having analyzed the secular trend of SAT,
showed that with the ®ltered-out contribution to temperature variations during
the last several decades at the expense of internal correlations (i.e., determined by
the climatic system's inertia), it turns out that temperature has practically not
changed. There is a paradox: the increase in the global average SAT during the last
20±30 years is the principal basis for the conclusion concerning human contribution
to present-day climate changes.
1.2.4.2 Air temperature diagnostics

From satellite observations (beginning in 1979), the trend of global average tempera-
ture for the lower troposphere (0 km±8 km) was 0.07 C per 10 years (Christy and
Spencer, 2003). According to the data from aerological sensings there was an increase
in global average temperature of the lower troposphere by about 0.03 C per 10
years, which is much below the SAT increase (0.15 C per 10 years) (Waple and
Lawrimore, 2003). This dierence in warming manifests itself mainly in the oceanic
regions in the tropics and sub-tropics, and it is not clear why this is so (Christy and
Spencer, 2003). The results of numerical climate modeling show that global warming
should be stronger in the free troposphere than near the surface.
The dierence in temperature trends near the surface and in the troposphere has
caused heated discussion in the scienti®c literature (Christy and Spencer, 2003; Waple
and Lawrimore, 2003). Since the reliability of satellite remote-sensing data raises no
doubts, and their spatial representativeness (on global scales) is more reliable than
that of the data of surface measurements, this dierence should be interpreted as
necessitating further analysis of SAT and SST data adequacy.
Data on changes in the height of the tropopause have recently attracted rapt
attention (Hoskins, 2003; Randel et al., 2003; Santer et al., 2003; Varotsos, 2004). As
Santer et al. (2003) noted, since 1979 the height of the tropopause increased by several
hundred meters, agreeing with the results of numerical climate modeling and in line
with growing GHG concentrations, whose contribution prevails again in `ènigmatic''
agreement with observed and calculated data.
Studies of the dynamics of the tropical tropopause layer are of great interest for
quantitative estimates of climate change and an understanding of the mechanisms
behind troposphere±stratosphere interactions. These circumstances have stimulated

recent serious attention to studies of the climatic structure and variability of the
tropical tropopause as well as oof the mechanisms responsible for the formation
of this structure. Serious attention has also been paid to analysis of data on the
content of water vapor in the stratosphere and the mechanisms for the formation of
thin cirrus clouds in the tropics. Randel et al. (2003) undertook studies of the
structure and variability of the temperature ®eld in the upper troposphere and lower
stratosphere of the tropics (at altitudes about 10 km±30 km) from the data of radio-
occultation observations for the period from April 1995 to February 1997 using
the Global Positioning System (GPS). Comparison with a large number (several
hundreds) of synchronous aerological sensings has shown that retrieval of the vertical
temperature pro®les from GPS/MET data provides reliable enough information.
Analysis of the obtained results suggested that the spatial structure and
variability of the tropopause altitude determined by a ``cool point'' (minimum
temperature) of the vertical temperature pro®le are governed mainly by ¯uctuations
like Kelvin waves. A strong correlation was observed between temperature from
GPS/MET data and outgoing long-wave radiation, which can serve as an indirect
indicator of penetrating convection in the tropics. This correlation con®rms the
temperature ¯uctuation revealed from GPS/MET data and opens up possibilities
for quantitative assessments of the response of the large-scale temperature ®eld in
the tropics to time-varying conditions of convection revealing coherent wavelike
variations at altitudes between 12 km and 18 km.
1.2.4.3 Snow and ice cover

In the Northern Hemisphere, sea ice and snow cover reach their minimum and
maximum extents in September and February, respectively. This variation determines
the signi®cance of global snow and ice cover for climate change. Recent trends in
snow and ice conditions assessed by global monitoring systems show that variations
in snow and ice cover re¯ect a number of the eects cause by a shift in climate,
including changes in both air temperature and precipitation patterns. Seasonal varia-
tions in snow cover are the main source of run-o in the dry season in many mountain
regions determining both the water supply and possible natural disasters (¯oods,
avalanches, and landslides).
Numerical modeling using global climate models has shown (by considering the
growing concentration of GHGs and aerosols) that climate warming should increase
in the Arctic because of the feedback determined by the melting of the sea ice and
snow cover causing a decrease in surface albedo. On the other hand, from the
observed data, SAT has increased during the last decades over most of the Arctic.
One of the regions where warming has taken place is northern Alaska (especially in
winter and in spring). In this connection, Stone et al. (2002) have analyzed the data on
climatic changes in the North of Alaska to reveal their impact on the annual trend in
snow cover extent (SCE) and the impact of SCE changes on the surface radiation
budget (SRB) and SAT.
1.2.4.4 Sea surface level and ocean upper-layer heat content

Numerous satellite-derived data provide useful information on the thermal structure
of the upper ocean. Sea surface variations are given by measurements from TOPEX/
POSEIDON. Sea surface temperature is derived from NOAA/AVHRR. In this
context, Arruda et al. (2005) presented a semi-dynamic model that combines sea
surface height anomalies, infrared satellite-derived SST, and hydrographic data to
generate maps of the upper-ocean heat content anomaly, which are suitable for
climate variability studies. McPhaden and Hayes (1991) examined the surface layer
heat balance using wind, current, and temperature data from equatorial moorings
along 165 E focused primarily on daily to monthly time scale variations during the
1986±1987 El NinÄo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. They inferred that evapora-
tive cooling related to wind speed variations accounts for a signi®cant fraction of the
observed SST and upper-ocean heat content variability. This evaporative heat ¯ux
converges non-linearly in the surface layer, giving rise to larger temperature varia-
tions in the upper 10 m than below. Other processes, such as wind-forced vertical
advection and entrainment, and lateral advection, were negligible or of secondary
importance relative to evaporative cooling. A large fraction of the SST and surface
layer heat content variance could not be directly related to wind ¯uctuations; this
unexplained variance is probably related to short-wave radiative ¯uxes at the air±sea
interface.
Cai and Whetton (2002) drew attention to the fact that ocean dynamics can
considerably aect future global-scale precipitation. Developments in these dicult
problems are based on the use of both observed data and the results of numerical
modeling, and have led to quite dierent conclusions. The climatic warming of the
last decades was characterized by the spatial structure similar to that of the ENSO
event. But since there are no data on such a structure for the whole century, the
observed structure of warming is assumed to be a manifestation of the multi-decadal
natural variability of climate, not the result of greenhouse forcing.
Moritz et al. (2002) revealed the substantial inadequacy of climate models when
applied to Arctic conditions. In most cases the calculated AO (Arctic oscillation)
trends turned out to be weaker than those observed. Calculated climate warming is
greater in the fall over the Arctic Ocean, while observed warming is at a maximum in
winter and over the continents in spring.
1.2.4.5 Other climatic parameters

Data on GST are important for climate diagnostics. As Majorovicz et al. (2002) have
noted, analysis of the GST data obtained in dierent regions of Canada by measuring
the ground temperature in boreholes revealed considerable spatial dierentiation
both in the GST increase observed in the 20th century, and in the onset of warming.
For instance, from measurements in 21 boreholes covering the last 1,000 years,
warming was detected (within 1 C±3 C) during the last 200 years. Warming was
preceded by a long cooling trend in the region 80 W±96 W, 46 N±50 N, which
continued until the beginning of the 19th century. According to data for ten
boreholes in central Canada, the temperature reached a minimum in 1820 with
subsequent warming by about 1.5 C. In western Canada, during the last 100 years
warming reached 2 C.
Analysis was made by Majorovicz et al. (2002) of more adequate information on
GST from the data of measurements in 141 boreholes at a depth of several hundred
meters. The holes were drilled in 1970±1990. The results obtained revealed intensive
warming that started in the 18th±19th centuries, which followed a long period of
cooling (especially during the Little Ice Age) continuing during the rest of the
millennium. The time of the onset of the present warming diered between regions.
Analysis of the spatial distribution of GST changes in Canada revealed a substantial
delay in the onset of the present warming in the east-to-west direction, with a higher
level of GST increase in the 20th century in western Canada. This conclusion is
con®rmed by the data of SAT observations. It should be noted that the GST increase
in eastern Canada had begun about 100 years before the industrial era.
The characteristics of atmospheric general circulation are important components
of climate diagnostics. As Wallace and Thompson (2002) pointed out, the west to east
zonal wind component averaged over the 55 N latitudinal belt can be a representative
indicator of the primary mode of surface air pressure anomalies: the Northern
Annual Mode (NAM) (Krahmann and Visbeck, 2003). Both the NAM and a similar
index SAM for the Southern Hemisphere are typical signatures of the symbiotic
relationships between the meridional pro®les of the west to east transport in the
respective hemisphere and wave disturbances superimposed on this transport. Their
index determined (using a respective normalization) that a coecient for the ®rst term
of NAM expansion in empirical orthogonal functions can serve as the quantitative
characteristic of the modes. The presence of a positive NAM (or SAM) index denoted
the existence of a relatively strong west to east transport.
In recent years it has been recognized that dynamic factors contribute much to
observed temperature trends. For instance, in 1995 a marked similarity was observed
between the spatial distributions of the SAT ®eld and NAM ¯uctuations for the last
30 years, with a clear increase in the NAM index. The increasing trend of the index
was accompanied by mild winters, changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation
in Europe, and ozone layer depletion in the latitudinal belt >40 N. Similar data are
available for the Southern Hemisphere. The main conclusion is that along with the
ENSO event, both NAM and SAM are the leading factors in global atmospheric
variability. In this connection, attention should be focused on the problem of the 30-
year trend of NAM toward its increase, the more so that after 1995 the index lowered.
It is still not clear whether this trend is a part of long-term oscillations.
The observational data show that during the 20th century an increase of
precipitation constituted 0.5%±1% per 10 years over most land surfaces in the middle
and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but a decrease (by about 0.3% per 10
years) took place over most of the land surface in sub-tropical latitudes, which has
recently weakened, however. As for the World Ocean, the lack of adequate observa-
tional data has not permitted identi®cation of any reliable trends of precipitation. In
recent decades, intensive and extreme precipitation in the middle and high latitudes of
the Northern Hemisphere has probably become more frequent. Since the mid-1970s
the ENSO events have been frequent, stable, and intensive. Such ENSO dynamics
was re¯ected in speci®c regional variations of precipitation and SAT in most of

the zones of the tropics and sub-tropics, Data on the intensity and frequency of
occurrence of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones as well as local storms still remain
fragmentary and inadequate and do not permit conclusions on any trends to be
drawn.
Changes in the biosphere are also important indicators of climate. One is the
bleaching of corals. It is important to recognize that enhanced atmospheric forcings
on coral reefs lead not to their disappearance but to their transformation into more
resistant species (Hughes et al., 2003). Changes in seawater properties are another
indicator (Broecker, 2003).
1.2.4.6 Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosol in

the atmosphere
The transport, diusion, and chemical transformation of pollutants in the
atmosphere over many regions of the world are the main factors that regulate
the greenhouse gas role in climate change. In this context, Otero et al. (2004) analyzed
the physical and optical properties of biomass-burning aerosols in a continental dry
region of South America and Argentina to understand the atmospheric radiative
processes in the region. It is known that biomass burning generates small particles,
water vapor, and gases like CO, CO2 , nitrogen oxide, and VOCs. These emissions are
not evaluated on a global scale at suciently high precision to provide useful
additional information for climate models.
As for the properties of atmospheric aerosol and its climatic impact, respective
current information were reviewed in detail in Anderson et al. (2003), Kondratyev
(1999a, 2003), Melnikova and Vasilyev (2004), Vasilyev and Melnikova (2002),
Varotsos et al. (2001, 2005). In this connection, it is pointed out again that the
supposed anthropogenic nature of the present global climate warming was explained
by warming caused by the growth in GHG concentrations (primarily CO2 and CH4 )
as well as cooling due to anthropogenic aerosols. However, if the estimates of ``green-
house'' warming can be considered reliable enough, then the respective calculations
of radiative forcing (RF) due to aerosol are very uncertain. Of no less importance is
the fact that while the global distribution of ``greenhouse'' RF is comparatively
uniform, in the case of `àerosol'' RF it is characterized by a strong spatiotemporal
variability (including changes in the sign of radiative forcing).
1.2.4.7 Paleoclimatic information

Paleoclimatic information is an important source of data for comparative analysis of
the present and past climates. Analysis of the data of paleoclimatic observations
reveals large-scale abrupt climate changes in the past when the climate system had
exceeded certain threshold levels. Though some mechanisms for such changes have
been identi®ed and the existing methods of numerical climate modeling are being
gradually improved, the existing models still do not permit reliable reconstruction of
past climatic changes. As a result of the emphasis on the climatic implications of the
growth of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere, less eort has been made to study
possible sudden climate changes that may be of natural origin, though possibly
intensi®ed by anthropogenic forcings.
Since such changes lie beyond the problems addressed in the UNFCCC, Alley et
al. (2002) undertook a conceptual evaluation of the problem of large-scale abrupt
climate changes. Though the available long-term stabilizing feedbacks have
determined the existence on Earth of a stable global climate for about 4 billion years,
with characteristic time scales from one year to one million years, feedbacks
prevailing in the climate system favored an enhancement of forcings on climate.
So, for instance, changes in global average SAT within 5 C±6 C during the glaciation
cycles apparently resulted from very weak forcings due to variations of the orbital
parameters.
Still more surprising is that for several decades and in the absence of external
forcings, regional changes have taken place reaching 30%±50% of those that had
taken place in the epochs of glaciations. Data from the period of instrumental
observations have revealed abrupt climatic changes, quite often accompanied by
serious socio-economic consequences. For instance, the warming in many northern
regions in the 20th century took place in two rapid ``steps'', leading to the supposition
that in this case there was a superposition of the anthropogenic trend on inter-annual
natural variability. Special attention was paid to the role of the ENSO event. The
latter also refers to a sharp change in the climate system in the Paci®c region in 1976±
1977.
Considerable abrupt changes in regional climate in the Paleocene were detected
from paleoclimatic reconstructions. They had been manifested as changes in the
frequency of occurrence of hurricanes, ¯oods, and especially droughts. Regional
SAT changes reaching 8 C±16 C had happened over periods of 10 years and shorter.
Dansgaard±Oeschger (DO) oscillations can serve as an example of large-scale sudden
changes (Dansgaard et al., 1993).
The climatic system involves numerous factors that intensify climatic changes
with minimum forcings. The withering or death of plants, for example, may cause a
decrease in evapotranspiration and hence lead to precipitation attenuation, which
may further increase drought conditions. In cold-climate regions snow cover
formation is accompanied by a strong increase in albedo, which favors further
cooling (the so-called `àlbedo eect''). Substantial climatic feedbacks are associated
with the dynamics of thermohaline circulation.
While the factors of enhancement of either changes to or the stability of climate
are comparatively well known, understanding is very much weaker of the factors
involved in the spatial distribution of anomalies over large regions, including the
globe. In this connection, further studies of the various modes of the general circula-
tion of the atmosphere and the ocean (ENSO, DO oscillations, etc.) are important, as
they are necessary for the respective improvement of general circulation models.
Most important here are the potential eects of abrupt climatic changes on ecology
and economy as current estimates are generally based on the assumption of slow and
gradual change.
Abrupt climate changes are especially substantial in transitions from one climatic
state to another. Therefore, if anthropogenic forcings of climate do favor the drifting
of the climate system toward a threshold level, the possibility of raising the prob-
ability of abrupt climate changes also increases. Of great importance is not only the
amountÐbut also the rateÐof anthropogenic forcings on the climate system. So, for
instance, faster climate warming should favor stronger attenuation of the thermo-
haline circulation as this may accelerate the shift to the threshold of climatic changes
(it is important that under these conditions the dynamics of thermohaline circulation
becomes less predictable). To gain adequate solutions in the ®eld of ecological policy,
a deeper understanding of the whole spectrum of possible sudden climate changes is
extremely important. Diculties in the identi®cation and quantitative estimation of
all possible causes of sudden climate change and low predictability near threshold
levels testify to the fact that the problem of abrupt climate changes will always
be aggravated by more serious uncertainties than the problem of slow change.
Under these conditions the development of ways to provide the stability and high
adaptability of economics and ecosystems is of great importance.
1.2.4.8 Radiative forcing

Estimates of RF changes contained in the IPCC 2007 Report, which characterize an
enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse eect and are determined by the growth
of concentrations of MGCs well mixed in the atmosphere, gave the total value
3.44 W m 2 , with the following contributions of various MGCs: CO2 (1.49 W m 2
to 1.83 W m 2 ), CH4 (0.43 W m 2 to 0.53 W m 2 ), halocarbon compounds
(0.31 W m 2 to 0.37 W m 2 ), N2 O (0.14 W m 2 to 0.18 W m 2 ). The ozone depletion
observed during the last two decades could lead to a negative RF constituting
0.15 W m 2 , which can be reduced to zero in this century if successful measures
to protect the ozone layer are taken. The growth in tropospheric ozone content
beginning from 1750 (by about one-third) could produce a positive RF of about
0.33 W m 2 .
From the time of the IPCC 1996 Report, RF estimates have substantially
changed, being determined not only by the purely scattering sulfate aerosol consid-
ered above, but also by other types of aerosol, especially carbon (soot) characterized
by considerable absorption of solar radiation as well as organic, sea salt, and mineral
aerosol. The strong spatiotemporal variability of the aerosol content in the atmo-
sphere and its properties seriously complicates an assessment of the climatic impact of
aerosol (Kondratyev, 1999a; Melnikova and Vasilyev, 2004). New results from a
number of climate models have radically changed the understanding of the role of
various factors in RF formation. According to Kondratyev and Demirchian (2000),
there is an approximate mutual compensation of climate warming due to the growth
of CO2 concentration and cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Under
these conditions, anthropogenic emissions of methane (mainly due to rice ®elds) and
carbon (absorbing) aerosol should play a more important role.
Estimates of RF obtained with due regard to GHGs and aerosol are of
importance in giving substance to conclusions concerning the contribution of anthro-
pogenic factors to climate formation. The correctness of these conclusions is
restricted, however, by three factors. One is that the interactivity of these factors
seriously limits (if not excludes) the possibility of adequate estimates of contributions
of individual factors. The second, no less important, factor consists in that the above-
calculated estimates refer to average global values and therefore are the results of
smoothing the RF values characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability. Finally,
the most complicated problem is the impossibility of reliably assessing aerosol RF
because of its direct and indirect components. According to estimates by Podgorny
and Ramanathan (2001), the value of direct RF at the surface level can increase to
50 W m 2 , and Chou et al. (2002) obtained values exceeding 100 W m 2 during
forest ®res in Indonesia. Vogelmann et al. (2003) estimated the RF due to radiative
heat exchange from which it follows that during daytime near the surface the RF
value is usually equal to several W m 2 . From the data of Pavolonis and Key (2003),
the total RF at the surface level in the Antarctic varies within 0.4 W m 2 ±50 W m 2 .
Yabe et al. (2003) obtained the average value 85.4 W m 2 , and Lindsey and Simmon
(2003) found RF in the U.S.A. to be 7 W m 2 ±8 W m 2 .
Weaver (2003) analyzed the possible role of changes in cloud RF (CRF) at the
atmospheric top level, especially in extra-tropical latitudes, as a climate-forming
factor whose role consists in regulating poleward meridional heat transport. The
cloud dynamics in extra-tropical latitudes and related changes in CRF depend on
formation in the atmosphere of vortices responsible for the evolution of storm tracks.
It is vortices determining the formation of storm tracks that contribute most to
meridional heat transport.
It was shown by Weaver (2003) that the average annual radiative cooling of
clouds in high latitudes has the same order of magnitude as the convergence of
vortices-induced meridional heat ¯ux, but of an opposite sign. Since there is a close
correlation between CRF and storm track dynamics, we can suppose two ways for
the impact of storm tracks dynamics on poleward heat transport:
(1) Directly via vortices-induced heat transport in the atmosphere.

(2) Indirectly via CRF changes. The eciency of heat transport by vortices is
reduced by radiative cloud cooling. Changes in eciency can be a substantial
climate-forming factor. Various levels of eciency can determine the possibility
of the existence of dierent climatic conditions.
In the context of the problem of CRF formation due to long-wave radiation,

Wang et al. (2003) considered speci®c features of the spatial distribution of cloud
cover during the unusually intensive El NinÄo event in 1997±1998 from the data of
observations from the SAGE-II satellite. Data on the cloud cover frequency of
occurrence in this period and CRF are unique information for the veri®cation and
speci®cation of schemes of interaction parameterization in the cloud±radiation±
climate system used in models of atmospheric general circulation. Based on using
the occultation technique of remote sensing (RS), the SAGE-II data provide vertical
resolution above 1 km and a quasi-global survey (70 N±70 S). Analysis of the results
under discussion revealed
(1) the occurrence of upper-level opaque clouds exceeding the normal level in the
eastern sector of the tropical Paci®c and an opposite situation in the ``warm
basin'' of the Paci®c; existing anomalies of an opaque cloudiness located at

altitudes above 3 km can be explained by the impact of the spatial structure of
anomalies of SST ®elds and precipitation observed in the tropics;
(2) the same laws are characteristic of cloudiness near the tropical tropopause
recorded at the detection threshold;
(3) the zonal mean distribution is characterized by a decrease in the amount of
opaque clouds in low latitudes (except the SH tropics at altitudes below
10 km) and an enhancement of clouds in high latitudes as well as by an increase
(decrease) in cloud amount (at the detection threshold) in the SH tropics (in the
upper troposphere of the NH sub-tropics); and
(4) the geographical distribution of calculated CRF anomalies which agrees well
with the data of satellite observations of the Earth radiation budget. New
estimates of direct and indirect RF have been obtained by Giorgi et al. (2003).
Markowicz et al. (2003) undertook a study to estimate the aerosol RF due to

long-wave radiation (radiative heat exchange). They studied aerosol radiative
forcing at infrared (IR) wavelengths using data from the Aerosol Characterization
Experiment, ACE-Asia (which took place on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration research vessel Ronald H. Brown). The mean IR aerosol optical
thickness at 10 m was 0.08 and the single-scattering albedo surface forcing reached
10 W m 2 during this cruise, which is a signi®cant contribution compared with the
total direct aerosol forcing. The surface IR aerosol radiative forcing was between
10% and 25% of the short-wave aerosol forcing. Over the Sea of Japan, the average
IR aerosol radiative forcing was 4.6 W m 2 at the surface, and 1.5 W m 2 at the TOA.
IR forcing eciency at the TOA was a strong function of aerosol temperature (which
is coupled to vertical structure) and changes between 10 W m 2 and 18 W m 2 (per IR
optical depth unit), while surface IR forcing eciency varied between 37 W m 2 and
55 W m 2 (per IR optical depth unit).
From these and other data it follows that accuracy in the estimate of radiation
balance as a function of space coordinates depends on cloud distribution, their state,
and atmospheric pollution, as well as on the chosen size of pixels for spatial aver-
aging. In this connection, Henderson and ChyÂlek (2005) used image data from the
Multispectral Thermal Imager to evaluate the eect of spatial resolution on aerosol
optical depth retrieval from satellite imagery. It was shown that aerosol optical depth
(AOD) depends weakly on pixel size in the range 40 80 m 2 to 2,040 4,080 m 2 in
the absence of clouds and changes monotonically with the growing size of pixels in
clouds.
The versatile and ambiguous role of aerosols in climate changes and their
in¯uence on human beings is demonstrated in the work of Otero et al. (2004), where
the temporal variability of aerosol optical properties was investigated during intense
biomass burning at the CoÂrdoba-CETT site (continental dry region in South America
and Argentina). Due to the high frequency of occurrences of biomass burning in the
dry season, it was important to characterize aerosol optical properties to understand
the atmospheric radiative processes in the region. Such a study is important in general
not only for evaluation and prediction of climate changes but also for total control of
environmental quality; for example, particles with diameters <2.5 mm can cause
respiratory desease.
Rossow (2003) justly warned that attempts to isolate and describe a greater
number of climatic feedbacks and to quantitatively estimate them using methods
proposed earlier have become confusing and disorienting, since application of a
simple linear theory consisting of many sub-systems is completely unacceptable.
Changes in extra-atmospheric solar radiation are a climate-forming factor that
should be taken into account. The contribution of these changes to RF starting from
1750 could have reached 20% compared with the contribution of CO2 , which is
mainly determined by an enhancement of extra-atmospheric insolation in the second
half of the 20th century (it is important to consider the 11-year cycle of insolation).
However, possible mechanisms of enhancement of the climatic impact of solar
activity are still far from being understood (Haigh, 2001; Kondratyev, 1998b).
Shamir and Veizer (2003) found, for instance, a high correlation between the
intensity of galactic cosmic rays and temperature for the last 500 million years. On
this basis, it was concluded that 75% of temperature variability in that period had
been determined by the contribution of this factor (this problem was also considered
earlier by Kondratyev, 1998b).
1.2.4.9 Some aspects of climatic data reliability

Conclusions about observed and, even more so, potential future climatic changes are
very uncertain, both with respect to the data of diagnostics of present climate
dynamics and to the results of numerical modeling. According to IPCC (2001),
developments in the following seven ®elds should receive top priority:
. stop any further degradation of the network of conventional meteorological

observations;
. continue studies in the ®eld of global climate diagnostics in order to obtain a
long-term series of observational data with a higher spatiotemporal resolution;
. seek a more adequate understanding of the interaction between the ocean±
climate system components (including its deep layers) and the atmosphere;
. more realistically understand the laws of long-term variability of climate;
. broaden the application of an ensemble approach to climate modeling in the
context of assessments of probabilities; and
. develop a totality (``hierarchy'') of global and regional models with emphasis on
the numerical modeling of regional impacts and extreme changes.
It should be added that in order to understand the physical laws governing

present and future climates, studies of paleoclimate are also important, especially
of sudden short-term changes. The intensive development of space-borne remote
sensing has not provided adequate global information about the diagnostics of the
climate system because the way the existing system of space-borne and conventional
observation works remains far from optimal.
The reliability of ARF estimates depends on many factors, one being the
reliability of information about aerosol optical thickness (AOT).
As ChyÂlek et al. (2003) noted, the maximum permissible error in outgoing
radiation ¯ux determination from satellite data DF 0.5 W m 2 determines the
necessity to retrieve the atmospheric optical thickness, , with an error not more
than D 0.015 on land and 0.010 over the oceans. However, this level of error has
still not been achieved. Using AVHRR data, the MSD of values varies within
0.06 0.15, whereas in the case of MODIS data over land, D 0.05±0.2, which
corresponds to the interval of D values from 0.07 to 0.21, with varying from 0.1 to
0.8. The use of the extra-nadir data of multi-spectral thermal video-radiometer MTI
for intermediate angles of scattering provides the level of error D 0.03.
According to numerical modeling results, the main obstacle to an increase in
retrieval accuracy is the unreliability of data on the scattering function (determined
by the absence of reliable information about aerosol size distribution, shape, and
the optical properties of particles). Such uncertainties have a greater eect on the
reliability of retrieval at large scattering angles (as a rule, close to nadir) than in the
case of extra-nadir angles (this corresponds to moderate values of the scattering
angle). From the experience of retrieval from MTI data, it was shown by ChyÂlek
et al. (2003) that to provide the needed accuracy of retrieval from the data of
satellite observations, we should use a single or dual direction of viewing at extra-
nadir scattering angles in the interval 50 ±100 .
Myhre et al. (2004, 2005) performed comparisons of retrieval algorithms for
AOT over the ocean using the data of satellite observations for 8 months (November
1996±June 1997) made with the AVHRR, OCTS, POLDER, and TOMS instrumen-
tation. Comparisons revealed the presence of considerable dierences (by a factor of
2 and more) between retrieved AOT values. Most substantial were dierences in the
Southern Hemisphere, and the cause of this was apparently insucient reliability of
cloud impact ®ltering.
According to the IPCC Report published in 1996, an indirect (connected with the
eect of aerosol on the optical properties of clouds) globally averaged impact of
aerosol on climate, characterized by the values of indirect RF, varies from 0 W m 2
to 1.5 W m 2 . Six years later (in IPCC 2001), the range of uncertainties was
broadened to 0 W m 2 ±4.8 W m 2 , and in IPCC 2007 it was evaluated as 1.2 W m 2
to 0.4 W m 2 .
As Brenguier (2003) noted, a contributing factor to the uncertainty is drizzle in
clouds that form in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In particular, this
circumstance illustrates the importance of the adequate retrieval of cloud cover
dynamics in the ABL. Another problem is connected with consideration (parameter-
ization) of small-scale processes in the ABL and their non-linearity. For instance,
aerosols acting as cloud concentration nuclei (CCN) can be determined from upward
motions at the cloud bottom which should be reproduced at a spatial resolution (in
the horizontal) of the order of 100 m. The present parameterization schemes still do
not meet these requirements.
The necessity to take into account the interaction between various processes
determining cloud cover dynamics and its eect on microphysical and optical
properties of clouds are fraught with serious diculties. In this connection, emphasis
was ®rst given to the aerosol-induced growth of cloud droplet number density
resulting in respective changes in cloud albedo and indirect radiative forcing. This
was called the ®rst indirect impact of clouds on climate. But, then it was necessary to
also take into account the second indirect impact manifesting itself through a change
in precipitation formation intensity. The retrieval of this impact needs a description
of the interaction between the microphysical characteristics of clouds and ABL
dynamics. Also, analysis was made of the signi®cance of the ``semi-direct'' eect
due to short-wave radiation absorption by aerosol, which reduces cloud cover devel-
opment (Johnson et al., 2004).
An important problem is to provide an interactive consideration of the three
types of aerosol impact on the ABL, clouds, and the indirect RF mentioned above.
Solution of this problem was one of the main objectives of the second ®eld observa-
tional experiment (ACE-2) on studies into aerosol characteristics in 1997 in the
Canary Islands. Part of the program of this experiment (called ``CloudColumn'')
was especially dedicated to a study of the indirect impact of anthropogenic aerosol
on climate. In 1999, the European Commission supported further studies in this
direction within the PACE project on the development of parameterization schemes
for the impact of aerosol on climate.
As Mitra (2004) pointed out, the Indian oceanic experiment (INDOEX) was the
®rst complex problem-oriented observational international program aimed mainly at
studies of the aerosol-induced radiative and climatic forcing of regional and global
climate that take respective feedbacks into account. The preliminary stage of the
accomplishment of INDOEX began in 1996±1997, and the basic part of complex
observations was accomplished in 1998±1999 with the participation of specialists
from dierent countries (India, U.S.A., Western Europe, Mauritius, and the
Maldives). The obtained results were based on the use of surface, ship, aircraft,
and satellite observational means.
The observational program included getting information about the content and
properties of atmospheric aerosol and most substantial optically active MGCs
(O3 , CO, NOx , SO2 , etc.), but concentrated on aerosol studies to retrieve data on
direct and indirect aerosol RF (ARF). The most interesting (and in many respects
unexpected) results were connected with detection of a thick aerosol layer in the
troposphere (an important feature of aerosol chemical composition consisted in the
presence of a considerable black carbon component) and distinct manifestations of
the long-range transport of both aerosol and MGCs.
The available information about aerosol, though complex, has opened up poss-
ibilities to analyze its impact on climate, human health, and agriculture, and available
information about MGCs the prospects for development in the ``Chemical weather''
problem. An important component of the INDOEX program was observations on
board the Indian ship Sagar Kanya in January±March 1999 (before the American
ship Ronald H. Brown) which plied the east to west voyage along the 20 S parallel in
regions of clear atmosphere south of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), as
well as in the Red Sea (along 15 N, toward India). Comparison of the ARF data in
regions of unpolluted atmosphere and in the presence of a thick aerosol layer showed
that in the second case the ARF was 6±10 times greater reaching 35 W m 2 (the
coastal zone) and 18.6 W m 2 (the dust-loaded atmosphere over the ocean).
From data of surface observations caried out at a rural location in the Great
Plains, Oklahoma within the atmospheric radiation measurements (ARM) program,
Feingold (2003) and Feingold et al. (2003) tested the hypothesis of the indirect impact
of atmospheric aerosol on climate proposed by Twomey (1974). According to this
hypothesis, aerosol particles (entering clouds and functioning as CCN) favor an
increase in ®ne droplet number density and thereby cause an increase in cloud albedo,
which causes climate cooling (an important aspect of the hypothesis is that cloud
water content is assumed to be constant).
Solution to the problem of understanding the aerosol±cloud interaction is
seriously complicated by the many feedbacks that appear in interacting micro-
physical, dynamic, and chemical processes. With the equivalent water content of
clouds assumed to be constant, an analysis was made (Feingold et al., 2003) of the
response of non-precipitating liquid water clouds to changes in aerosol content. This
response was characterized as the relative change in eective radius of cloud droplets
with the relative change in aerosol-induced extinction. The eective radius of droplets
was retrieved from radiation and microwave-sensing data (the spatiotemporal reso-
lution of the observational results constituted, respectively, 100 m and 20 s). Raman
lidar data served to retrieve aerosol-induced extinction in the sub-cloud layer
(Philbrick, 2002). An analysis of observational results demonstrated that aerosol
contained in marine air masses or in air masses from the north aects clouds more
strongly than aerosol coming with air masses from the northwest. There is a
suciently high correlation (0.67) between the response of cloudiness to aerosol
and the intensity of turbulent mixing in clouds.
The interaction processes in the aerosol±cloud±radiation system that determine
the indirect impact of aerosol on climate remain poorly studied, though they are an
important factor in RF formation (the respective estimates vary between 0 W m 2
and 4.8 W m 2 ). The contribution to indirect climatic impact by aerosol due to
lower-level stratus clouds is important since
. their albedo is more sensitive to changes in the microphysical characteristics of

clouds than those of upper-level high-albedo clouds (this is the ®rst indirect
impact of aerosol on clouds and climate); and
. the moderate geometrical thickness of clouds is often sucient for droplets to
reach the size of precipitating droplets, and therefore even a small increase in
cloud droplet number density, N, can prevent precipitation, which aects the
water content and albedo of clouds (this is the second indirect impact of aerosol
on climate).
To analyze the formation and variability of the indirect climatic impact of aerosol
within the second ®eld experiment on studies of aerosol (ACE-2) and the PACE
program to substantiate parameterization of this impact, Menon et al. (2003)
undertook a comparison of six 1-D numerical models of the processes in the
aerosol±cloud±radiation system that determine the climatic impact of aerosol under
conditions of clear and polluted ABL. They divided this into three stages. The ®rst
was aimed at analysis of the adequacy of numerical modeling of how aerosol acts as
condensation nuclei, radiation transfer, and precipitation formation at high vertical
resolution, as was the case of in situ observations at the time of the ACE-2 experi-
ment. At the second stage, similar tests of the adequacy were made but this time at a
rougher vertical resolution. The objective of the third stage was numerical modeling
for a 24±48-hour period to assess the possibilities of forecasting clouds in the ABL
taking into consideration the large-scale ®elds of meteorological parameters. To
forecast cloud droplet number density, N, several parameterization schemes were
used.
The results obtained by Menon et al. (2003) revealed substantial dierences in the
use of physically substantiated prognostic schemes of how aerosol acts taking into
account vertical velocity and empirical schemes based on diagnostic data on the
vertical velocity at cloud bottom level. Prognostic schemes are characterized by
the stronger variability of results compared with diagnostic ones because of dier-
ences in scheme of the interaction between the processes of aerosol activation and
precipitation of drizzle when calculating N.
When initializing 1-D models at a high vertical resolution taking into account
the observed vertical pro®les of cloud water content, a comparison was made of
the results of numerical modeling with observational data which revealed a satis-
factory agreement, which deteriorates, however, if we con®ne ourselves to considera-
tion at a low vertical resolution. Predicted precipitation turned out to be strongly
underestimated, but this dierence reduces if we take into account the sub-grid
variability of the water content. It follows from calculations for the 24±48-hour
period that, as a rule, estimates of cloud morphology turn out to be inadequate.
Eventually, numerical modeling leads to considerable errors in assessing the optical
properties of clouds. The forecasting of cloud morphology becomes more reliable
with the use of parameterization schemes of the process of formation of cloud
thickness as well as with consideration of the external large-scale RF of the processes
of cloud formation.
Accomplishment of the complex observational experiment LACE-98 made it
possible to obtain extensive information about atmospheric aerosol (aircraft meas-
urements of the size distribution and number density of ®ne aerosols, coecients of
aerosol absorption, backscattering and depolarization, chemical composition of
aerosol, as well as surface observations of the spectral optical thickness of the atmo-
sphere, coecients of extinction and backscattering). Fiebig et al. (2002) compared
the observational data on optical parameters obtained from the results of numerical
modeling for total H2 SO4 aerosol near the tropopause as well as for the ammonium
sulfate/soot mixture in the remainder of the air column (Osborne et al., 2004).
This comparison provided closure (according to calculation results and observa-
tional data) with an error not exceeding 25% in the case of aerosol optical thickness
(with due regard to aerosol formed in biomass burning in North America and long-
range transport with soot having a 35% share). Assuming a spherical shape of
particles (with an average non-sphericity ratio of 1 : 3), the calculated depolarization
of such aerosols agrees with the data of lidar sensings, whereas a comparison of
calculated and observed values of the backscattering coecient showed that soot
aerosol should be a component with non-absorbing particles. Using the two-stream
approximation of the theory of radiation transfer, the ARF at the level of the
tropopause in a cloud-free atmosphere was estimated at 5.8 W m 2 for AOT 0.09
(at 710 nm) and solar zenith angle 56 . The value of ARF due to aerosol formed
in biomass burning is equally sensitive to the state of particle mixture (external or
internal) and to surface albedo.
In an attempt to understand the indirect climatic impact of atmospheric aerosol
through aerosol-induced changes of microphysical and optical characteristics of
clouds, Peng and Lohmann (2003) discussed the results of ®eld studies into the impact
of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud droplet size distribution carried out in Canada.
Comparison of the calculated values of cloud albedo with observations showed that
the best agreement is observed when the calculated values are corrected by taking into
account the parameters of scaling (which depends on the relative MSD of the sizes
of droplets), and " (which characterizes the average radius of droplets and radius of
MSD). Here 1 2" 2 2=3 =1 " 2 1=3 . There is a positive correlation between the
parameter and droplet number density. This linear correlation was used in numerical
climate modeling by the ECHAM-4 AGCM model (Kemball-Cook et al., 2002;
Roeckner et al., 1996). Calculations have shown that the globally averaged value
of aerosol-induced indirect RF at the TOA decreased by 0.2 W m 2 after correction,
with the parameter taken into account.
The indirect climatic impact of aerosol at the ABL is determined by numerous
interactions between aerosol and the dynamics of the microphysical and optical
properties of clouds. The input to the atmosphere of anthropogenic aerosol particles
functioning as CCN favors an increase in cloud droplet number density. As men-
tioned above, the related increase in the optical thickness and albedo of clouds, with
their constant water content, was called the ``®rst indirect eect'', which characterizes
the climatic impact of aerosol.
On the other hand, also important is the change in cloud droplet size distribution,
which aects its dynamics (mainly via the process of precipitation formation leading
to changes of cloud lifetimes and their spatial extent, on which cloud albedo
depends). Such a microphysical feedback aecting the cloud cover dynamics was
called the ``second indirect eect'', which determines the climatic impact of aerosol.
Although cloud albedo increase is comparatively small, being connected with
manifestations of indirect eects, it can be substantial on global scales as a factor
of attenuation of warming due to the atmospheric greenhouse eect. Therefore,
studies of the indirect climatic impact of aerosol and its satellite monitoring are
extremely urgent.
Brenguier et al. (2003) discussed the ACE-2 CC project, one of the ®ve projects
accomplished within the ACE-2 program of the second ®eld experiment on studies of
aerosol characteristics with the aim of understanding the indirect climatic impact of
aerosol for marine stratocumulus clouds and to substantiate the strategy of ``closed''
aerosol±cloud±radiation experiments. Observations within the CC project were made
in June±July 1997 in the Canary Islands using instruments onboard three ¯ying
laboratories and installed at a surface network.
Brenguier et al. (2003) discussed the results of eight series of aircraft measure-
ments of the microphysical characteristics of marine stratocumulus clouds in a broad
range of observation conditions (dierent physico-chemical properties of aerosol,
number density values in the interval 50 cm 3 ±25 cm 3 , etc.). The unique complex of
synchronous observations of the microphysical and radiative characteristics of cloud
cover obtained can be used to assess the indirect impact of aerosol on clouds and
climate based on analysis of the ratio between the cloud optical thickness and
eective radius of cloud droplets. Correlation between these values is usually nega-
tive, but in a heavily polluted atmosphere it can be positive. From the observational
data obtained during ACE-2, the polluted systems of clouds turned out to be
somewhat drier and therefore thinner, resulting in the positive correlation between
the indirect impact of aerosol on climate and the eective radius of droplets.
The product of incomplete burning of various fuels (mainly fossil fuel and
biomass burning) is called ``black carbon'' (BC), made up of soot and smoke aerosol
that absorbs short-wave radiation. Estimates of direct RF due to BC and organic
matter (OM) have led to values in the interval from 0.16 W m 2 to 0.42 W m 2 ,
and total absorbed radiation within 0.56 W m 2 ±2 W m 2 (the parameter BC OM
is the soot component that appears as a result of fossil fuel burning). About 10% (by
mass) BC constitutes aerosol formed in biomass burning, for which RF values were
obtained from 0.16 W m 2 to 0.74 W m 2 , whereas the radiation absorbed by
aerosol varies within 0.75 W m 2 to 2 W m 2 .
Components of the products of biomass and fossil fuel burning responsible for
radiation scattering (along with water-soluble organic and inorganic components
emitted to the atmosphere as part of smoke and soot compounds) can also function
as CCN. This means that emissions of BC and OM participate in the formation of
indirect RF due to the impact of CCN on the formation of clouds and their proper-
ties. It follows from available estimates that such a contribution can exceed 80% with
respect to total indirect RF. The BC impact can also manifest itself by local warming
of the atmosphere and a decrease in cloud amount and their water content, which
leads to an albedo decrease.
In connection with the earlier estimates of related ``semi-direct'' RF, it was
concluded there exists a possibility of additional climate warming. In connection
with this, Penner et al. (2003) evaluated the eect of soot and smoke aerosols on
climate using a global climate model (GCM) that took into account the eect of BC
in cloud droplets on cloud albedo. Table 1.10 shows the annual average values of the
total content of various types of aerosol used in this model. The numerical modeling
of direct, semi-direct, and indirect RF, with due regard to RF as a result of both
short-wave and long-wave radiation, has led to the conclusion that the eect of the
latter determines a decrease or even a change in sign of semi-direct RFÐbut no
enhancement in warming.
Total RF substantially depends on the altitude of aerosol emissions since
emissions at high altitudes enhance negative long-wave RF. Moreover, emissions
of absorbing aerosols at higher altitudes can enhance clouds at lower altitudes, where,
as a rule, a temperature decrease takes place. According to estimates of the direct
global average short-wave RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), it constitutes
Table 1.10. Annual average values of the total content (mg m 2 ) in the atmosphere of different
types of aerosol in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and over the globe.
Type of aerosol NH SH Globe
Anthropogenic sulfates, SO 24 0.87 0.22 1.09
Natural sulfates, SO 24 0.45 0.42 0.86
OC due to fossil fuels 0.39 0.03 0.41
BC due to fossil fuels 0.08 0.01 0.09
OC due to biomass burning 1.28 1.24 2.52
BC due to biomass burning 0.13 0.13 0.26
OC emissions at surface level 0.49 0.52 1.02
BC emissions at surface level 0.05 0.06 0.11
Natural OC 0.13 0.10 0.23
Dust (radius <1 mm) 11.11 3.57 14.68
Sea salt aerosol (radius <1 mm) 1.82 2.85 4.68
OC organic carbon, BC black carbon, NH Northern Hemisphere, SH Southern Hemisphere.
0.17 W m 2 . The concept of ``quasi-RF'' makes it possible to partially take into

account the impact of climatic feedbacks, resulting in RF values of
0.28 0.32 W m 2 .
If, according to the earlier results, radiation absorption by aerosol leads to a
decrease in cloud amount and cancels out aerosol-induced cooling, it follows from
numerical modeling results (based on the concept of quasi-RF) that the total RF
(determined both by short-wave and long-wave radiation) turns out to be less (more
negative) than before. Thus, the impact of smoke and soot aerosol manifests itself as
a cooling taking into account the changes in cloudiness and temperature that occur in
the process of RF formation.
Calculations of short-wave RF considering all the anthropogenic aerosol in the
region, where the content of BC exceeds 2 mg m 2 , gave values of 3.0 W m 2 and
3.1 W m 2 for aerosol emissions due to biomass burning near the surface and in the
middle troposphere, respectively. If soot aerosol emissions take place near the surface
then they determine, on average, a tropospheric warming at all levels and a decrease
in cloud amount near the surface where emissions take place. The total ``quasi-RF''
with due regard to both short-wave and long-wave radiation in the case of soot
aerosol is close to zero.
Recent estimates testify to the very strong impact of the phase state of atmo-
spheric ammonium sulfate aerosol (with radiative humidity 80%) on the level of
aerosol-induced RF. Also, of great interest is the impact of the aerosol phase state on
the course of heterogeneous chemical reactions. Although the processes of deliques-
cence (water assimilation) and eorescence (water loss) of pure ammonium sulfate
have been well studied, the problem consists in the complexity of the chemical
composition of aerosol particles including up to 50% and more (by mass) of organic
compounds.
Analysis of aerosol samples obtained at several locations in Western Europe has
shown that about 60% of the content of organic carbon in tropospheric aerosol is the
share of water-soluble organic compounds. According to observational data, at a
rural location in Austria, mono- and dicarboxylic acids constitute about 11% (with
respect to the total content of organic carbon in cloud water). While insoluble organic
compounds hamper the assimilation of water by aerosol, soluble organic matter, as a
rule, favors water assimilation.
In view of insucient information about the role of the phase transformations of
aerosol, Brooks et al. (2003) carried out laboratory measurements in a running-water
vat using an IR Fourier spectrometer to distinguish between particles' phase states as
well as to study the processes of deliquescence and eorescence in the case of
ammonium sulfate, maleic acid, as well as the internally mixed aerosol particles of
the maleic acid/ammonium sulfate mixture. The results obtained indicate that in the
case of aerosol particles of maleic acid, the assimilation of water by them begins at a
low radiative humidity (RH) of about 20% and continues until a maximum RH level
(89%) is reached, at which the assimilation of water is still possible. For particles of
mixed composition (maleic acid/ammonium sulfate), the assimilation of water begins
at a lower RH than for particles consisting of one of the components. Studies into
eorescence have led to the conclusion that the crystallization of maleic acid particles
takes place at RH < 30%. On the whole, the results obtained re¯ect the fact that the
presence in aerosol of water-soluble organic matter mixed internally with ammonium
sulfate, broadens the range of conditions under which the aerosol is in a liquid state.
Zender et al. (2003) developed a numerical model which makes it possible to pre-
calculate the number density and size distribution of atmospheric dust aerosol, which
is to be used as a component of numerical models of climate and chemical processes
in the atmosphere. The discussed DEAD model was used to simulate the global
distribution of dust aerosol (DA) taking into account the processes of transformation
of aerosol properties determined by involvement, dry and wet deposition, and
chemical reactions with the participation of dust aerosol. Calculations have been
made on the assumption that the soil texture is globally homogeneous and contains a
sucient amount of components which favor the process of saltation. Soil erodibility
is parameterized using a new physically substantiated geomorphic index, which is
proportional to the river catchment's area located upstream from the region of each
DA source. The processes of dry deposition are described with due regard to sedi-
mentation and turbulent mixing. The processes of nucleation and size-dependent
washing out of DA particles in stratus and convective clouds are taken into account.
Comparison of the numerical modeling results with surface and satellite observa-
tional data revealed, on the whole, satisfactory agreement. With the contribution of
anthropogenic aerosol neglected, the DEAD model adequately simulates, for
instance, the annual change of migration of the trans-Atlantic dust plume formed due
to dust storms in Africa as well as a maximum of DA out¯ow from the Asian
continent to the region of the Paci®c Ocean. According to the results of numerical
modeling, the global characteristics of DA and its variability in 1990 (particles with
the diameter D < 10 mm were considered) are as follows: 1,490 160 Tg yr 1 (total
DA emissions); 17 2 Tg yr 1 (the amplitude of the interannual variability of emis-
sions); 0.030 0.004 (optical thickness at the wavelength 0.63 mm). The following
data characterize the contribution of various continents (Tg yr 1 )2: 980 (Africa), 415
(Asia), 37 (Australia), 35 (South America), 8 (North America). All these estimates
are substantially less than the values obtained earlier. The discussed results are
characterized by underestimated transport and deposition of DA from Eastern Asia
and Australia to some regions of the Paci®c Ocean, which is partially determined by
the underestimated contribution of the long-range transport of particles >3 mm. The
results under discussion re¯ect the existence of hot spots (positive anomalies of DA
emissions) in regions where easily saltating alluvial deposits accumulate.
Strong anthropogenic emissions of great amounts of MGCs and aerosols in large
cities attract rapt attention to this problem in the context of possible impacts both on
the environment and humans (in particular, on RF formation). One of the relevant
examples is Mexico City located at an altitude of 2,240 m a.s.l., and its air basin
(18 N±20 N, 98 W±100 W) surrounded with mountains which serve as a barrier to
atmospheric circulation. The processes of urban heat island formation are hindered
in Mexico City by the complicated relief. In the morning, when cold air masses ``¯ow
down'' from the mountains to the urban territory, a situation of air stagnation occurs
and, respectively, pollutant concentration. After sunrise, a warming of the south-
western slopes of mountains favors the input of wet air masses from the Gulf of
Mexico. The high altitude of Mexico City causes a reduction in oxygen concentration
and promotes an increase in surface ozone concentration.
Based on the use of the NARCM regional model of climate and formation of the
®eld of concentration and size distribution of aerosol, Munoz-Alpizar et al. (2003)
calculated the transport, diusion, and deposition of sulfate aerosol using an approx-
imate model of the processes of sulfur oxidation that does not take the chemical
processes in urban air into account. However, the 3-D evolution of microphysical and
optical characteristics of aerosol was discussed in detail. The results of numerical
modeling were compared with observational data near the surface and in the free
troposphere carried out on March 2, 4, and 14, 1997. Analysis of the time series of
observations at the airport in Mexico City revealed low values of visibility in the
morning due to the small thickness of the ABL, and the subsequent improvement of
visibility as ABL thickness increased. Estimates of visibility revealed its strong
dependence on wind direction and aerosol size distribution. Calculations have shown
that increased detail in size distribution presentation promotes a more reliable simu-
lation of the coagulation processes and a more realistic size distribution characterized
by the presence of the accumulation mode of aerosol with the size of particles
0.3 mm. In this case, the results of visibility calculations become more reliable, too.
2
1 teragram equals 10 12 grams.
In connection with the important role of sulfate aerosol (SA) in the formation of
the direct and indirect impact of anthropogenic SA on RF, which aects climate,
great attention has been recently paid to ARF numerical modeling. The calculated
values of the global average direct and indirect ARF change, respectively, from
0.2 W m 2 to 0.8 W m 2 and from 0 W m 2 to 1.5 W m 2 (i.e., they are compar-
able with positive RF due to the growth in GHG concentration). The wide range of
uncertainties in calculated ARF is mainly determined by approximate results of
numerical modeling of the global spatiotemporal variability of the aerosol content
in the atmosphere as well as by diculties in getting adequate consideration of the
aerosol±cloud interaction.
Gong and Barrie (2003) undertook a numerical modeling of the impact of aerosol
on climate with the use of an aerosol module developed in Canada, describing the
global variability of sea salt and sulfate (both natural and anthropogenic) aerosol
(considering its size distribution) and the latest (third-generation) model of global
climate. The size distribution of both types of aerosol is parameterized by dividing the
spectrum of particles size into 12 intervals. The aerosol is assumed to be internally
mixed. A comparison of calculated spatiotemporal variability of aerosol concentra-
tion with that observed revealed satisfactory agreement. This refers, in particular, to
the marine ABL (MABL). It has been shown by Gong and Barrie (2003) that sea salt
aerosol particles favor suppression of the process of nucleation, an increase in surface
area for condensation, and a change in the properties of clouds in the MABL, which
determines a re-distribution of mass concentration and number density of sulfate
aerosol. The results of separate numerical modeling of the dynamics of sea salt and
sulfate aerosol suggested the conclusion that the presence of sea salt aerosol almost
doubles the diameter of sulfate aerosol particles in the MABL at a high concentration
of sea salt aerosol but causes a decrease (on global scales) of the mass of sulfate
aerosol in the surface layer of the MABL within 5%±75% (depending on the dis-
tribution of sea salt aerosol particles).
Most substantial impacts of this kind take place in mid-latitudes of the Northern
and Southern Hemispheres, and minimum impacts near the equator. The anthro-
pogenic pollution of the atmosphere in the regions of the Paci®c and Atlantic Oceans
in the Northern Hemisphere results in decreasing concentrations of sulfate aerosol
within 10%±30% due to sea salt aerosol. The greatest decrease (down to 50%±75%)
takes place in the SH Roaring Forties in the spring and in the fall. The average global
estimates of the impact of sea salt aerosol on decreasing mass and number of sulfate
particles are, respectively, 9.13% and 0.76%.
The impact of sea salt aerosol determines the decrease in droplet number
concentration in marine clouds (CDNC) by 20%±60%, with a maximum decrease
in the NH Roaring Forties (40%±70%) and NH mid-latitudes (20%±40%), char-
acterized by the high concentration of sea salt aerosol. Some increase in CDNC due
to sea salt aerosol was also observed in the equatorial band. The impact of changes in
aerosol content and cloud cover on global climate will be estimated in future.
The ®rst indirect climatic eect of aerosol (the Twomey eect) is based on the
assumption that with a constant equivalent liquid water content (LWC) of clouds an
increase in atmospheric aerosol number density (and, hence, concentration of CCN)
should lead to an increase of cloud droplet concentration and cloud albedo (Twomey,
1974). In this connection, Feingold (2003) carried out a numerical modeling to
analyze the possibilities of using the extinction coecient, , retrieved from the data
of surface remote sensing, for the sub-cloud atmosphere as an indirect indicator of the
impact of aerosol on the size distribution of cloud droplets. An adiabatic model of
cloud droplets limited by consideration of a thin layer of non-precipitating strato-
cumulus clouds (it is in this case that the supposition with respect to adiabatic nature
can be considered acceptable) makes it possible to reproduce the hygroscopic growth
of CCN and to take into account water vapor condensation on droplets (neglecting
the growth of droplets due to coalescence). The model considered was used to
calculate cloud droplet size distribution at a given size distribution of ammonium
sulfate aerosol when the masses move upward at a velocity of 20 cm s 1 ±300 cm s 1 .
The one-modal size distribution of aerosol, N, is approximated by the log-normal size
distribution of particles at 20 cm 3 Na 3;000 cm 3 , median radius of particles
0.03 mm rg 0.1 mm, and distribution width 1.3 2.2. Dierent values of
the mass share of ammonium sulfate and cloud water content are prescribed.
Estimates of the sensitivity of the eective radius of droplets, re , to various input
parameters showe that re changes especially strongly depending on LWC (the impact
of variations in this parameter was earlier neglected when estimating the indirect
eect of aerosol on clouds and climate). The relative role of other parameters changes
depending on observation conditions, but the importance of Na remains unchanged.
The impact of vertical motions manifests itself most at a high concentration of
aerosol. Analysis of all the results obtained has led to the conclusion that the use
of the extinction coecient as an indirect indicator of the impact of aerosol on cloud
droplet size distribution can lead to underestimation of the importance of the ®rst
indirect impact. The levels of possible systematic errors of the extinction coecient
remain uncertain in view of their dependence on the varying characteristics of aerosol
(e.g., the aerosol number density, Na , cannot be retrieved from the data of remote
sensing), vertical motions, and LWC.
Fortmann (2004) discussed in detail the microphysical and optical characteristics
of atmospheric aerosol which determine the formation of aerosol radiative forcing
(ARF) (i.e., the climatic impact of aerosol in the Arctic). In particular, the following
problems were considered:
(1) the physical and optical parameters of tropospheric aerosol and its speci®c
impact on climate and on the formation of the Arctic haze;
(2) the general problems of measurements and numerical modeling of aerosol
properties;
(3) a regional climate model HIRHAM-4 with parametrization of the aerosol
dynamics for the Arctic (latitudes >65 N);
(4) a 1-D model of radiation transfer and consideration of the impact of aerosol and
clouds on radiation transfer;
(5) the use of the HIRHAM-4 climate model to assess the climatic impact of the
Arctic haze (AH); and
(6) an assessment of ARF from observational data.
Analysis of the numerical modeling results showed that consideration of AH

determines an additional positive ARF within 1 W m 2 ±8 W m 2 at the atmospheric
top level over the snow ice surface of the Arctic Ocean, but over the open water of the
Atlantic and Paci®c Oceans the ARF values become negative, constituting about
2 W m 2 . The impact of AH on ARF at surface level manifests itself as an additional
negative ARF reaching a maximum ( 7.5 W m 2 ) over the open water of the ocean.
An averaging of the shortwave ARF over the whole region of the Arctic gave a value
of about 2.4 W m 2 . Thus, the total ARF at the surface level is 1.7 W m 2 .
The estimates of aerosol-induced changes in SAT obtained using the climate
model showed that these changes vary from 1 K (over the East Siberian Sea and
Canada Archipelago) to 1 K (in the region of Spitzbergen, Barents Sea, Kara Sea,
and Taimyr Peninsula). There is the possibility of considerable interannual variations
of monthly mean SAT reaching 2 K. It was shown that both direct and indirect
(through aecting clouds) impacts of aerosol on climate are equally important.
Use of observational data of aerosol characteristics near Spitzbergen (within the
ASTER program on studies of tropospheric aerosol and radiation) demonstrated
a strong regional variability for the impact of aerosol on SAT,from a cooling of 2 K
in the Ban Gulf and in the Laptev Sea to a warming of about 3 K in the Beaufort
Sea.
FeczkoÂ et al. (2002) estimated the radiative forcing due to aerosol and GHGs for
Hungary of the early 1980s. The obtained results revealed considerable changes in RF
due to ammonium sulfate and CO2 for the last two decades. While the contribution to
climate warming of the greenhouse eect as a result of increasing CO2 concentration
increased by 60%, the anthropogenic contribution to climate cooling due to sulfate
aerosol decreased by 45% (i.e., the impact of both these atmospheric components on
climate manifested themselves as a warming).
Various kinds of vegetation emit to the atmosphere a great amount of non-
methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). The total level of emissions in the vegetation
growth period of such NMHCs as isoprene (C5 H8 ), monoterpenes (C10 H16 ), sesqui-
terpenes (C15 H28 ), and oxygen-containing compounds (Cn H2n 2 O) constitutes
825 TgC yr 1 ±1,150 TgC yr 1 , exceeding the level of respective anthropogenic
emissions (about 100 TgC yr 1 ).
As Barr et al. (2003) pointed out, the importance of such emissions is determined
mainly by their impact on the three processes taking place in the atmosphere. The ®rst
consists in that such NMHCs as isoprene form in the course of carboxylization in
plants and contribute much thereby to the formation of biospheric carbon cycle. The
second process is connected with NMHCs exhibiting high chemical activity with
respect to such main oxidants as hydroxyl radicals (OH), ozone (O3 ), and nitrate
radicals (NO3 ). Reactions with the participation of such components result in the
formation of radicals of alkylperoxides (RO2 ), which favor ecient transformation
of nitrogen monoxide (NO) into nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), which favors an increase of
ozone concentration in the ABL. Finally, NMHC oxidation leads to the formation of
such carbonyl compounds as formaldehyde (HCHO), which stimulates the processes
of O3 formation. Finally, the oxidation of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes results in
the intensive formation of ®ne carbon aerosol with a particle diameter of <0.4 mm
(the share of such aerosol production reaches 10%±30%), substantially aecting

various processes in the ABL.
Barr et al. (2003) performed an analysis of the impact of phytogenic aerosol
(PhA) which is de®ned as forming mainly due to monoterpene oxidation (primarily,
- and -pinenes), on the radiative regime of the ABL over the forest in the eastern
part of Canada. In the forest ecosystem the level of emissions to the atmosphere of
biogenic hydrocarbons is moderate, with the concentration of - and -pinenes
constituting about 1.6 ppb. NMHC oxidation resulted in the formation of PhA at
a number density of particles of about 5 10 8 cm 3 . For a given concentration and
size distribution of aerosol, its impact on the short-wave radiation transfer in the
ABL was assessed.
Under clear sky conditions in July and with aerosol number density within
(2 5) 10 3 cm 3 , the diurnal mean attenuation of global radiation constituted
0.04 W m 2 with the contribution of scattered radiation equal to 0.01 W m 2 .
A maximum level of global radiation attenuation due to PhA reached 0.2 W m 2 .
It follows from the obtained results that the PhA-induced reduction of the input of
shortwave radiation can markedly compensate (on a regional scale) for the contribu-
tion of warming due to an enhanced atmospheric greenhouse eect. The PhA is also
important as a factor of the impact on the optical properties of clouds functioning as
CCN.
The global contribution of vegetation cover to emissions of volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere constitutes about 90%. Biogenic VOC
emissions (BVOC) include isoprenes (C5 H8 ), monoterpenes (C10 H16 ), and other
chemically active carbon compounds. The total content of carbon in global emissions
of BVOC can exceed 1 Pg yr 1 . Many BVOCs react with surface ozone and other
oxidants in the atmosphere, substantially aecting chemical processes in the atmo-
sphere on local, regional, and global scales. The presence of BVOCs determines, for
instance, an increase of the lifetime of methane in the troposphere by about 15%. Due
to BVOC transformation, 13 Tg yr 1 ±24 Tg yr 1 of secondary organic aerosol are
formed in the global atmosphere, which is comparable with the level of carbon
aerosol formation due to fossil fuel and biomass burning. As Levis et al. (2003)
noted, biogenic aerosol seriously aects the formation of radiation budget and
CCN. This means that BVOC emissions strongly aect the global climate formation
through their eect on chemical processes, atmospheric aerosol concentration, and
the global carbon cycle. Therefore, the IPCC has recommended VOC emissions be
taken into account in scenarios for emissions used in numerical climate modeling.
According to respective estimates, the level of anthropogenic VOC emissions in 1999
averaged about 140 TgC yr 1 , and estimates for 2100 give possible limits from
<100 TgC yr 1 to >550 TgC yr 1 . BVOC emissions depend on the type of vegetation
and on environmental conditions (air temperature, solar radiation, water supply of
plants, O3 and CO2 concentrations).
Levis et al. (2003) described an algorithm based on the data of ®eld and
laboratory measurements that enables calculation of BVOC emissions being used
as a component of the interactive climate model CCSM (Version 2.0) for the
atmosphere±ocean±land±sea ice cover system developed by National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (U.S.A.) scientists. This development is a ®rst step

toward constructing a global climate model that takes into account the dynamics
of biogeochemical cycles. To analyze the functioning of the CCSM model, two
numerical experiments were carried out that took into account
(1) only land surface processes with a prescribed state of the atmosphere and satellite
data on vegetation cover; and
(2) completely interactive processes in the climate system (including the
pre-calculated dynamics of vegetation cover).
Calculation results have shown that in both cases an enhancement of BVOC

emissions takes place in warm and forested regions (compared with other regions),
agreeing with observed data. With the prescribed distribution of vegetation cover,
global emissions of isoprene on land constitute 507 TgC yr 1 , which closely corre-
sponds to the results of interactive numerical modeling. When using an interactive
model, BVOC emissions depend on climate change and vegetation cover, which vary
from year to year. The interannual variability of calculated anthropogenic emissions
can exceed 10% with respect to annual anthropogenic emissions corresponding
to IPCC scenarios. This necessitates a consideration of BVOC emissions in the
interactive global climate model.
The validity of this conclusion is con®rmed by results of studies of RF due to
organic aerosol obtained by Maria et al. (2004). A consideration of carbonaceous
components in dust aerosol and aerosol products of combustion detected in Africa,
Asia, and North America, showed that the rate of chemical reactions with participa-
tion of MGCs is three times lower than the characteristic values usually used in
numerical climate modeling. Slower rates of transformation of volatile or hydro-
phobic organic compounds into condensed and hygroscopic ones results in an
increasing amount of carbonaceous particles taken into account in climate models
up to 70%. As a result, the climatic RF due to secondary organic aerosol increases to
0.8 W m 2 (cooling due to scattering) and 0.3 W m 2 (warming due to absorp-
tion). As a result, an absolute RF dierence constitutes 1.1 W m 2 (i.e., it reaches
one-half of the ``greenhouse'' RF, 2.2 W m 2 ).
1.2.5 Climate change, forests, and agriculture

Forest and agricultural ecosystems are the environmental components most sensitive
to climate change. Forests determine many characteristics of GHG biogeochemical
cycles, and agricultural systems form human±environment relationships vital for
food production. An important indicator of the level of food demand is the size
of population whose increase, by FAO (2006) estimates, will require a 5% increase in
food production by the year 2015, compared with the present-day level. The problems
arising are thoroughly studied in many international programs on the environment
and climate. U.S. national programs pay special attention to them. In particular,
analysis of the consequences of using various scenarios of possible global climate
changes has led to the conclusion that in some scenarios of the impact on forestry and
agriculture in the U.S.A. they will be economically favorable. Partly this is connected
with the growth in forest productivity (with a CO2 concentration increase) and with
the capability of forests to adapt themselves to climate changes. Of particular concern
is the state of forests in the Amazon, with their greatest biodiversity in the world and,
at the same time, the highest rate of deforestation due to the expansion of cities and
farms (Barbieri and Carr, 2005).
During the last 100 years, about half the Earth's surface has been transformed
(i.e., aected anthropogenically), and this means that 50% of net primary produc-
tion (NPP) has changed and, hence, practically all trophic levels of the land have
changed their energy. Milesi et al. (2005), using satellite observations of NPP at 0.5
resolution and data on the global distribution of population, temperature, water, and
clouds, analyzed the global NPP trends and found that more than half the world
population live in regions where NPP 490 gC m 2 yr 1 . Before 1998, about 56% of
the population lived in regions where the availability of water determined the NPP
level. On average, 40% of NPP on the vegetation-covered surface correlates with
climate variations due to ENSO, which aects almost 2.8 billion people.
Yue et al. (2005) studied the impact of climate changes on the land ecosystems of
China. They give data on temperature and precipitation obtained since 1960 at 735
meteorological stations in China, and using the HLZ (Holdridge Life Zone) model,
they show that the spatial distribution of these characteristics has strongly changed
during the last several decades. In particular, in a snow-covered region and a sub-
tropical arid steppe average values of these characteristics have rapidly decreased and
they may disappear in 159 and 96 years, respectively, if these territories shrink at
the present-day rate. The alpine dry tundra and cool moderate undergrowth have
continuously expanded their areas during the last 40 years, on average, at a rate of
13.1% and 3.4% per decade, respectively. A warm moderate steppe, a subtropical
moist forest, and cool moderate moist forest have shifted their boundaries during this
period by 1,781.45 km, 1,208.14 km, and 977.43 km, respectively.
As for agriculture, according to prognostic estimates for the period to 2060, the
positive impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture will be less economically
favorable than follows from the estimates obtained earlier. Guerschman and Paruelo
(2005) analyzed a relationship between the agricultural use of land and CO2 assimila-
tion on the American continent, using satellite measurements of NDVI for the period
1989±1998 and showed that CO2 sinks in land ecosystems are functions of their state,
and their changes can reach considerable magnitudes as a result of human activity.
Lamptey et al. (2005), using the MM5 model, studied climatic sensitivity to changes
in land covers in agriculture and in cities, with the northeastern part of the U.S.A.
territory as an example. It was established that urbanization leads to a SAT increase
of more than 1 K with a 0.04 K decrease in daily oscillations. The transformation of
forested territories into agricultural lands leads to a SAT rise of more than 0.5 K in
winter and 1 K in summer.
Hays et al. (2005) showed that stubble burning can cause a global change in
atmospheric air. A study of the physical and chemical characteristics of substances
emitted when burning the straw of rice and wheat has shown that the atmosphere
receives particles 100 nm±1,000 nm in diameter, with the level of CO2 content and the
CO/CO2 ratio being important indicators of this process. The input of solid particles
to the atmosphere for wheat and rice is estimated at 4.7 0.04 g kg 1 and
13 0.3 g kg 1 of dry biomass ¯uxes, respectively. For wheat straw, its burning
delivers to the atmosphere K (31% weight/weight) and Cl (36% weight/weight),
and for rice straw the emitted substances are mostly carbonaceous (84% weight/
weight). Spectrometric analysis has shown that gases constitute 18% of emitted
matter in straw burning. A study carried out by Otero et al. (2004) showed that
biomass burning in South America in a dry season are of global-scale importance,
since they lead to a considerable change in the optical characteristics of the atmo-
sphere over vast territories as well as they change the elements of the hydrological
regime due to water vapor condensation on smoke particles.
Unfortunately, due to the global and poorly studied character of correlation
between climate change and vegetation cover behavior (forest ecosystems, in par-
ticular), at present there are no reliable estimates of the climate change consequences
for their productivity. The problems arising here are just beginning to be studied. This
especially refers to the boreal forests that cover 15% of the land area (75% of them
are in Eurasia, mainly in Russia). It is in these forests that the intensive gas and heat
exchange with the atmosphere takes place.
1.2.6 Observational data for global change

Numerous national and global environmental programs and observational systems
exist to provide data about the environment. One is the U.S. Global Change Research
Program (USGCRP), a general objective of which is to provide space-based global
observations which together with other observations and studies can generate new
scienti®c information to help understand the Earth system. Global climatological
information is supplied by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an
intergovernmental organization with a membership of 188 Member States and
Territories. Annual WMO reports survey a wide series of environmental problems.
The most important questions answered in these reports are as follows:
. Is climate warming taking place?

. Is water cycle intensity changing?
. Are the atmospheric and ocean general circulations changing?
. Are extreme climate changes (storms, droughts, ¯oods) intensifying?
. Is a reliable estimation of the anthropogenic contribution to climate change
possible?
There exist many observational and theoretical studies that are trying to answer
these questions. For example, Moron et al. (1998) undertook a detailed analysis of all
available data on the spatiotemporal variability of SST worldwide and for individual
regions, using Multi-channel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). The main goal of
the analysis was to reveal the laws of variability and inter-basin relationships between
SST ®elds on time scales from interannual to interdecadal. The length of the observa-
tions series was enough for a reliable analysis of SST variability on time scales of 2±15
years, though it is more dicult to guarantee the statistical reliability of results for
much longer periods.
In view of the great interest in SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean, emphasis
was concentrated on this region. The irregular long-term SST trend turned out to be
the strongest climate signal. Application of the MSSA method to data processing for
the 20th century revealed well-known regularities: a gradual increase in SST in both
hemispheres in the 1910s±1940s, with a subsequent increase in the Southern Hemi-
sphere; cooling of the NH ocean in the 1960s to the end of the 1940s, whereas in the
Southern Hemisphere the SST ®rst was stable and then it increased, which deter-
mined a change in sign of the SST inter-hemispherical contrast in the early 1970s;
®nally, a SST increase in both hemispheres in the 1980s with a slight decrease in this
trend in recent years. The results under discussion represent a stage of developments
aimed at comparing the results of numerical modeling with the use of 2-D and 3-D
models of the atmosphere±ocean system and the data of observations.
Analysis of the data on temperature measured in boreholes made an important
contribution ito ideas about SAT changes in the past. For instance, Bodri and
CÏermaÂk (1999) noted that if the amplitude of long-term SAT variations during
transitions from glaciations to interglacial periods had reached 10 K±15 K in the
Holocene (the last 10,000±14,000 years), changes of several K would have taken
place on time scales from decades to centuries. In this connection, analysis has been
made of the data on the vertical pro®les of temperature measured at dierent depths
in boreholes, and maps have been drawn of SAT changes over the Czech Republic,
which took place between 1100 bc to 1300 bc (small climatic optimum), between 1400
and 1500, and between 1600 and 1700 (main phases of the Little Ice Age).
Huang et al. (2000) discussed the results of processing measured temperature at
dierent depths in 616 boreholes, 453 in the Northern Hemisphere and 163 in the
Southern Hemisphere, from which global mean temperature for ®ve centuries was
retrieved. Data for 479 boreholes revealed a 1.0 K global warming during the last ®ve
centuries. It was only during the 20th century, which turned out to be the warmest,
that the increase in continental surface temperature reached 0.5 K (about 80% of
climate warming fell on the 19th and 20th centuries). The warming that took place
over these ®ve centuries was stronger in the Northern Hemisphere (1.1 K) than in the
Southern Hemisphere (0.8 K). On the whole, the results agree with conclusions drawn
from tree rings, though the latter revealed a somewhat weaker secular trend of SAT,
which can be explained by particular features of the dendroclimatic method.
Analysis of the paleoinformation on SAT obtained from the data on oxygen
isotopes in Greenland ice kerns from the Quaternary showed that long-term
temperature changes are superimposed by much faster changes on time scales from
a millennium down to 10 years (Bowen, 2000). Analysis of Antarctic ice kerns
revealed similar changes. In particular, in the Holocene substantial temperature
changes took place in both polar regions. Information about CO2 dynamics during
the last ice age can be evaluated based on studies of lake deposits in northern latitudes
(Rundgren et al., 2005).
Data on the planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma from the

northeastern region of the Atlantic Ocean (west of Ireland) enabled retrieval of
SST and the tracing of Heinrich events associated with iceberg kicks.
Information on the content of carbon dioxide and methane in air bubbles
contained in ice kerns re¯ects the important role of these minor gas constituents
(MGCs) in climate formation, but it is still unclear what took place ®rst: change in
temperature or in MGC content. For instance, it was recently shown that during four
interglacial periods, changes in temperature in the Antarctic took place about 4,000
years before the changes in CO2 concentration.
New results from numerical modeling of El NinÄo dynamics determined by
variations in orbital parameters reproduced quite satisfactorily the Milankovitch
Frequencies for the last 150,000 years, as well as variations on time scales of a
millennium. However, most surprising were climate variations with a period of
1,450 years detected from dierent data for dierent global regions. These changes
were regularly repeated (in particular, in Greenland) for the last 110,000 years,
including the last glaciation and the Holocene (at times of glaciation the amplitudes
of these changes were increasing).
These results re¯ect the radical reorganization of the climate system that took
place during comparatively short periods. The Holocene seemed (compared with
these changes) a period of a comparatively stable climate. There is no doubt that
without climatic feedbacks the growth in GHG concentration in the atmosphere
should cause climate warming. However, the actual situation is much more compli-
cated, and to understand it, it is necessary to reliably detect and estimate the role of
feedbacks. Otherwise, it is impossible to reliably predict future climate change. Since
peat bogs are one of the most important sources of such information, they should be
protected.
Having analyzed the data of SST satellite observations since 1982, Strong et al.
(2000) noted a warming over a large part of the tropics and in mid-latitudes of
the Northern Hemisphere (with the global mean trend of 0.005 C yr 1 ). Data
on SAT in the Southern Hemisphere are less representative and re¯ect the existence
of an opposite cooling trend (the problem of SST data variability needs a thorough
study).
According to the data obtained by Levitus et al. (2000) for the 50-year period
(1948±1998), the World Ocean has become substantially warmer. The upper 300 m
layer has warmed most (by 0.31 C, on average), whereas the temperature of the 3 km
layer rose by 0.06 C. This increase in ocean upper-layer temperature preceded a SAT
increase that began in the 1970s.
Satellite data on sea ice cover extent are important as an indicator of global
climate dynamics. Gloersen et al. (1999) detected a statistically substantial shrinking
of the global area of sea ice constituting ( 0.01 0.003) 10 6 km 2 per 10 years.
Researchers from NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and others using
satellite data detected a signi®cant loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years. On September
21, 2005, the sea ice extent dropped to 7.03 million km 2 , the lowest extent yet
recorded in the satellite record. Incorporating the 2005 minimum with a projection
for ice growth in the last few days of September 2007 brings the estimated decline in
Arctic sea ice to 8.5% per decade. Dierent explanations have been proposed for
Arctic sea ice decline, including the strong positive mode of the Arctic Oscillation
(AO). This oscillation is an alternating pattern of atmospheric pressure at polar
latitudes and mid-latitudes. Data collected by several countries bordering the Arctic
allow the construction of maps of the lateral sea ice extent since the beginning of the
20th century (Walsh and Chapman, 2001).
SHF remote-sensing data are special. Their analysis has not revealed any marked
changes in the average temperature of the lower troposphere in recent decades. This is
con®rmed by the results of aerological sensings. From the data of Woodcock
(1999a, b), the global mean SAT in October 1999 was 0.2 C below the average value
for the period 1979±1999.
Santer et al. (2000) discussed the causes of dierences between trends of SAT and
lower tropospheric temperature. Having analyzed the SAT data for 1925±1944 and
1978±1999, Delworth and Knutson (2000) came to the conclusion that the main
cause of SAT change was a combined impact of anthropogenically induced RF
and unusually substantial multi-decadal internal variability of the climate system.
Satellite data on changes in the balance of Greenland glacier mass are an
important indicator of climate dynamics. The results of laser altimetry for northern
Greenland for 1994±1999 show that at altitudes above 2 km the ice sheet was, on the
whole, in balance with local changes of dierent signs. A decrease in glacier thickness
prevailed at low altitudes exceeding 1 m yr 1 , which was enough to raise the World
Ocean level by 0.13 mm yr 1 (this is equivalent to 7% of the observed rise in ocean
level). Satellite observations indicate that Greenland's glaciers have been dumping ice
into the Atlantic Ocean at a rate that doubled between 2001 and 2006.
Observational data on water cycle parameters still remain fragmentary. An
exception are such publications as Russo et al. (2000), which analyzed a change in
the diurnal sum of precipitation at Genuine University Observatory for 1833±1985
and detected a decrease in the number of days with precipitation over the whole
period of observations and a considerable growth of precipitation rate since 1950.
During the last 50 years the number of days with intensive precipitation has sub-
stantially grown. Yu et al. (1999) analyzed both observed and calculated data. The
radiation balance of the atmosphere was found from data of satellite observations of
outgoing short- and long-wave radiation ¯uxes, as well as radiation ¯uxes at the
surface level retrieved from satellite data. The values of turbulent heat ¯ux at the
surface level were taken from observations within the framework of the COADS
program, and horizontal heat transport was calculated using the respective meteoro-
logical information. To minimize random errors, spatiotemporal averaging was
carried out: zone-averaged atmospheric heat balance components were considered
for the latitudinal belt 50 N±50 S, as well as values for this latitudinal belt.
Analysis of these data showed that the heat balance cannot be closed: an addi-
tional input of 20 W m 2 to the atmosphere is needed. Attempts to use dierent
versions of input data bases were unable to remove this imbalance. Since water vapor
balance could be closed using the same data, it seems that this imbalance is caused
by inadequate estimates of the atmospheric radiation balance as a result of under-
estimation of calculated values of solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere.
Having analyzed the adequacy and reliability of available observational data on

climate, Folland et al. (2000) came to the conclusion that the existing volume and
quality of data do not permit the questions enumerated above to be adequately
answered. In this connection, the degradation of the systems of routine meteoro-
logical observations during the last decade is alarming. These observations are
important for calibration of satellite remote-sensing results. Therefore, for some
regions of Africa and vast regions of the World Ocean it is dicult even to retrieve
the average values of climatic parameters.
Discussing the observed temporal regularities of global climate change and its
causes, Wallace (1998) noted a ®rst-priority necessity to consider the following
problems:
(1) Periodic climate changes due to variations in extra-atmospheric solar

radiation.
(2) Quasi-periodic variability of climate (its most vivid manifestations are quasi-
biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratosphere).
(3) El NinÄo/Southern Oscillation (in view of a wide range of frequencies this event
cannot be considered quasi-periodic).
(4) Interdecadal climatic variations which to a great extent are determined by
internal intra-seasonal and intra-annual variability of the climate system).
(5) Climatic variability on time scales from interdecadal to secular.
(6) Analysis of the statistical signi®cance of assessments of unprecedented events and
``shifts of regimes'' in light of the non-stationary character of the time series of
many climatic parameters.
(7) Detection of phase ratios between climate changes on time scales from
interannual to interdecadal.
The fact that most climate variability can be described by separately considering
its dependences on time and space coordinates is important. In view of the baing
complexity of the climate system with its numerous degrees of freedom and feed-
backs, the highly ordered structures and modes of climate evolution should be
considered the exceptionÐrather than the rule. ``Rough'' conceptualization schemes
that do not attempt to simulate in excess detail the structure and evolution of climatic
anomalies should be more stable. Really important climatic ``signals'' in solving the
problems of detection and prediction of global climate changes need to be seen with
the naked eye. A much more complicated problem than it is usually presumed to be is
an evaluation of the statistical signi®cance of any quantitative characteristics of
climate change, especially unprecedented events and ``shifts of regime'' from data
on short time series (because, as a rule, such series are unstable).
Apparently, a future direction for studies into climatic instability and related
catastrophic events, like Hurricane Katrina (13 years after the most powerful in the
history of Miami: Hurricane Andrew) in late August 2005 did huge economic
damage, completely ¯ooding New Orleans and destroying many buildings, is a search
for connections between temperature variations at dierent scales in dierent basins
of the World Ocean. For instance, Chang et al. (2000) and Yamagata et al. (2004)
showed that between SST variability in the Indian and Paci®c Oceans there exists a
suciently persistent correlation, which is especially manifested in the monsoon
season in the basin of the Indian Ocean. The ENSO event that promotes the
propagation of the subtropical anticyclone over the Western Paci®c plays a marked
role in stirring up the feedback mechanisms. Studies of the correlations that appear
here are being successfully carried out using the interactive CGCM developed at the
Center of the Ocean±Land±Atmosphere system study (COLA).
There are two key regions in the Paci®c Ocean that play an important role in
variations of upper-layer temperature: the western and central basins of the northern
Paci®c. The changes taking place here aect the climatic situation in many regions of
Asia and in more distant regions. Therefore, it is important to study the complicated
climatic composition in the Paci®c region to reveal latent dependences between
stimulators of future global climate change.
In studies of climate-forming processes, permafrost occupies a special place.
Osterkamp (2005) gives the results of experimental measurements since 1977 in
Alaska to determine the impact of climate on permafrost. It was established that
during the period of observations the atmosphere and permafrost surface tem-
peratures were gradually rising, with dierent spatial distributions in seasons, with
maximum gradients in October±May and minimum ones from June to September. In
the early 1980s, the permafrost temperature increased and then decreased as a result
of a slight cooling of the atmosphere and growth of the snow cover. The Arctic sites
once again started warming from 1986, and the inner continental regions from 1988.
The general level of permafrost warming by 2003 reached 3 C±4 C on the Arctic
coastline of Alaska, 1 C±2 C in northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 C±1 C
south of the Yukon river. The rate of permafrost melting in dierent years varied
within 4 cm yr 1 ±10 cm yr 1 .
1.2.7 Globalization and human-induced factors of climate change

Considering the prospects for developments within the CLIVAR program to study
climatic variability, Bolin (1999) emphasized that the IPCC was very cautious in its
evaluation in order not to go beyond the conclusions known from the scienti®c
literature, on which such evaluations were based. The key fact is that it is necessary
to distinguish between what can be considered reliable and what remains uncertain.
As far as the prediction of climate in the future is concerned, there are still a lot of
uncertainties. This approach gave the scienti®c community the con®dence to make
concrete decisions and should be preserved in the future.
Bolin (1999) emphasized that though IPCC 1995 contains a statement that global
climate changes in the 20th century were partly determined by human activity, this
conclusion was formulated rather cautiously. In this context, evaluation of the
probable contribution of random climatic variations independent of human in¯uence
is critical. Results of recent studies have substantially elucidated this problem,
showing that random variations in global mean SAT on time scales from decades
to centuries for the last 600 years were within 0.2 C or less. (This conclusion, as
mentioned above, disagrees with observational data, from which it follows that SAT
had changed in the past within much wider limits.) In this connection (as Bolin, 1999
believes), with regard to evaluation of the contribution of anthropogenic warming
during the last 50±75 years, the skeptics should be asked: How can we explain the
much stronger global warming observed during recent decades?
In the addresses of ocial representatives of several countries at conferences in
Kyoto and Buenos Aires as well as in the mass media, weather and climate anomalies,
such as tropical hurricanes and unusual El NinÄos, were ascribed to global warming.
Such opinions require, however, thorough scienti®c veri®cation, though the possi-
bility of more frequent anomalous phenomena under global warming conditions
cannot be excluded. Therefore, the development of methods of climate prediction
on a regional scale becomes urgent, and especially for the period 2008±2012.
In Bolin's (1999) opinion, to assess the socio-economic consequences of
implementing the measures for GHG emission reduction recommended by the Kyoto
Protocol, of great importance is the development of integral models representing a
combination of the models of climate, carbon cycle, energy development, and socio-
economic development, which will require much time and eort.
In this connection, a dicult problem is how to validate such models to analyze
their reliability. The absence of adequate validation means that the results of numer-
ical modeling using integral models can be considered only as possible scenariosÐbut
not forecasts.
Characterizing climatic forcings, Hansen et al. (1998, 1999) noted that they have
not been determined with sucient accuracy for reliable climate predictions. There is
suciently reliable information about the atmospheric content of GHGs that deter-
mine a positive RF, but serious diculties are connected with assessment of the
impacts determined by such factors as atmospheric aerosols, clouds, changes in land
use, which result in a negative RF that partly cancels out the ``greenhouse'' warming
of climate. One of the consequences of this compensation is the possibly more
important role of changes in extra-atmospheric insolation (i.e., the Sun Constant,
SC) as a climate-forming factor, than it was supposed earlier based on numerical
modeling that only took GHG contribution into account (calculations of ``green-
house'' RF due to the growth of CO2 concentration since the beginning of the
industrial revolution gave about 1.5 W m 2 ).
In connection with this, Hansen et al. (1998, 1999) obtained new estimates for
global mean RF. Table 1.11 shows the results of analytical approximations (with an
10% error) of various components of ``greenhouse'' RF (the recent detection of
CF5 CF3 as an important GHG testi®es to the fact that the problem of substantiation
of GHG priority cannot be considered solved). The total RF value is
2.3 0.25 W m 2 . It is interesting that in the period 1950±1970 RF grew from
0.01 W m 2 to 0.04 W m 2 yr 1 , and during the subsequent 20 years it decreased
down to 0.3 W m 2 yr 1 in connection with a slowdown in the growth of CO2 (despite
the continuing growth of CO2 emissions) for reasons unknown. A contribution was
also made by a slowdown in the increase of CH4 concentration, again for reasons
unknown.
Table 1.11. Greenhouse radiative forcing F since the industrial revolution.
Gas Radiative forcing
CO2 F f c f c0 where f c 5:04 lgc 0:0005c 2 , c is CO2 concentration
(ppm)
1=2
CH4 0:04m 1=2 m 0 gm; n0 gm0 ; n0 ; gm; n 0:5 lg1 0:00002mn 0:75
where m is CH4 concentration (ppb)
1=2
N2 O 0:04n 1=2 n0 gm0 ; n gm0 ; n0 where n is N2 O concentration (ppb)
CFC-11 0.25x x0 where x is CFC-11 concentration (ppb)
CFC-12 0.30y y0 where y is CFC-12 concentration (ppb)
Calculations of RF due to the growth in tropospheric ozone concentration gave a

value of 0.4 0.15 W m 2 . A decrease in total content of ozone in the stratosphere
could lead to RF equal to 0.2 0.1 W m 2 . Though these changes in sign mutually
cancel each other out to a great extent, this does not imply that they are insigni®cant,
since variations of the ozone content in the troposphere and stratosphere aect
substantiallyÐbut dierentlyÐthe formation of the temperature vertical pro®le.
As for RF due to aerosol, it is still determined unreliably in view of the absence of
adequate information about real atmospheric aerosols. Numerical modeling that
takes anthropogenic sulfate and organic and soil aerosols into account for given
global distributions of aerosol optical depth made it possible to evaluate the global
distributions of RF and equilibrium surface temperature and then to obtain respec-
tive global mean changes in RF (DF) and surface temperature (DTs ) for purely
scattering aerosols (single-scattering albedo ! 1) and more realistic aerosol
(Table 1.12).
Table 1.12. Global mean RF for three types of anthropogenic aerosol.
Type of aerosol $1 More realistic $
DF DTs DF DT
(W/m 2 ) ( C) (W/m 2 ) ( C)
Sulfate 0.28 0.19 0.20 0.11
Organic 0.41 0.25 0.22 0.08
Dust 0.53 0.28 0.12 0.09
Total 1.22 0.72 0.54 0.28

1
$ ka ka ks is the single-scattering albedo, ka is the absorption coef®cient, ks is the scattering
coef®cient.
Hansen et al. (1998) noted that the most reliable estimate of total RF due to
aerosol constitutes 0.4 0.3 W m 2 instead of the earlier estimate 0.54, though in
any case such an estimate is still very uncertain due to unreliable input data on
aerosol properties.
The anthropogenic changes to RF due to clouds are probably much more
substantial than those due to aerosols, but even more uncertain. Such changes
(including the impact of aircraft contrails) are mainly the result of an indirect impact
of anthropogenic aerosols which cause variations in the particle size distribution and
optical properties of clouds. Rough estimates give ``cloud'' RF from 1 W m 2 to
15 W m 2 , but this can change by an order of magnitude (depending on prescribed
input parameters). Conditionally, a value of 1 0:5 1 Wm
2
can be accepted. Appar-
ently, some increase in the cloud amount observed in the 20th century can be ascribed
to an indirect impact of aerosols. Speci®cation of such estimates means carrying out
complex observational programs in dierent parts of the world.
The contribution of land use changes to RF variations is connected with defor-
estation, deserti®cation, and biomass burning, aecting the albedo and roughness of
the surface, as well as evapotranspiration (Chuang et al. 2006). It is also important to
remember that a bare surface albedo changes more strongly with a settled snow cover
than with a vegetation-covered surface. Approximate estimates of the Earth radiation
balance due to land use evolution gave 0.2 0.2 W m 2 .
Nature-induced RF for the last century due to SC changes (including an indirect
impact on the ozone layer) can be assumed to be 0.4 0.2 W m 2 . Since total RF
constitutes only about 1 W m 2 , the contribution of variations in extra-atmospheric
insolation could play a substantial role.
Volcanic eruptions cause changes in RF from 0.2 W m 2 to 0.5 W m 2 (these
values, however, are very conditional). To analyze the possible anthropogenic
impacts on global climate, estimates of the sensitivity of the climate system to external
forcings are very important. Hansen et al. (1998) assumed that a change in global
mean SAT with a doubled CO2 concentration should constitute 3 1 C. The unreli-
able character of RF estimates makes it worthwhile to use dierent scenarios of RF
changes. Developments in this ®eld can be exempli®ed by the work of Tett et al.
(1999).
Crowley (2000) estimated the contributions of various factors to climate forma-
tion (SAT changes) for the last 1,000 years using an energy±balance model of climate.
According to the results obtained
(1) changes in global mean SAT during the last millennium can be explained as
a result of the combined impact of known RFs (in the pre-industrial epoch
41% 64% of SAT changes took place due to extra-atmospheric insolation
and volcanic activity);
(2) the global warming observed in the 20th century was mainly anthropogenic
(``greenhouse'') in nature, much exceeding the internally induced variability of
the climate system.
Unfortunately, the arguments put forward by Crowley (2000) are unconvincing

even from the viewpoint of explaining the secular change in global mean SAT. For
instance, the causes of climate cooling in the late 19th±early 20th century were not
explained. Of course, the model considered cannot reproduce changes in regional
climate. The role of northern Atlantic oscillations in climate formation was not
revealed. On the whole, there is little doubt that the capabilities of approximate
energy±balance models are con®ned to substantiating only very conditional scenarios
of climateÐbut they cannot describe the dynamics of the real climate system. This
conclusion also applies to results obtained using much more complicated global
interactive models of climate (Knutson et al., 1999).
Emphasizing that low-resolution (3 ±6 latitude) climate models cannot reli-
ably reconstruct (and, what is more, predict) climate change on a regional scale,
Mearns et al. (1999) showed that these problems can be solved with two approaches.
(1) Statistical (with observational data taken into account) scaling (reducing to
a higher spatial resolution) of numerical modeling results obtained using low-
resolution models.
(2) Supplementing these models with a higher resolution ``nest'' of regional models.
In this connection, Mearns et al. (1999) undertook a comparison of the scenarios

of anthropogenic climate change (with a CO2 doubling) calculated using the stand-
alone RegCM2 model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) and a semi-empirical method of scaling (SDS). In both cases large-scale
numerical modeling was carried out using the GCM model developed at the
Australian Commonwealth Scienti®c and Industrial Organization (CSIRO).
The results obtained show that the RegCM2 model reveals stronger spatial
variability in the ®elds of temperature and precipitation than the SDS model. How-
ever, the SDS model shows a much greater amplitude in temperature annual change
than the RegCM2 model or the GCM. The diurnal change in temperature turned out
to be weaker with the SDS and the GCM than the RegCM2 model, and the amplitude
of the diurnal change in precipitation varied between that corresponding to the SDS
and RegCM2. RegCM2 calculations reproduced both an increase and decrease in
precipitation probability with a doubled CO2 concentration, whereas with the SDS
only precipitation intensi®ed.
One of the reasons for these dierences could be the fact that the semi-empirical
model SDS was based on data only from the 700 gPa surface level, whereas the two
other models took into account the vertical structure of the atmosphere. However,
this comparison does not allow us to draw a conclusion about which of the obtained
results ``correctly'' re¯ect the eect of forcing. To answer this question and to
determine the reasons for the above-mentioned dierences, numerical modeling needs
to be further improved.
An important illustration of the high level of uncertainty of theoretical estimates
about the causes of climate change is the recent re-evaluation of the role of
``Milankovitch mechanisms'' as the main factor in climatic paleodynamics. The
Milankovitch mechanism links climatic change with changes in the orientation of
the Earth in its orbit around the Sun. According to Milankovitch theory (Crowley
and Kim, 1994), changes in paleoclimate are determined by re-distribution of the

extra-atmospheric insolation both in latitude and in annual change as a result of
variations in the Earth's orbital parameters (especially referring to glacial±interglacial
cycles in the Quaternary), which include
(1) Inclination of the rotation axis with respect to the orbital plane (¯uctuating
within 22 ±24.5 , with the present-day value 23.4 ; the average periodicity of
variation constitutes 41,000 years and mainly aects high-latitude insolation).
(2) Equinox precession aecting the time of onset of equinoxes and solstices, which
is displayed mainly on low-latitude insolations (precession is characterized by a
dual periodicity of 19,000 and 23,000 years).
(3) Eccentricity of the Earth's orbit, which varies from almost circular to strongly
elliptical with a periodicity of about 95,800 years (these changes modulate
precession).
Milankovitch (Rubincam, 2004) supposed, in particular, that the low level of

insolation in summer high latitudes caused glaciation and ice sheet formation.
The accompanying increase in surface albedo brought about a positive feedback,
enhancing the eect of insolation decrease. The low level of insolation in summer
took place at a minimum angle of orbital inclination, high eccentricity, and the NH
summer apogee. According to Milankovitch's calculations, such a con®guration took
place 185,000, 115,000, and 70,000 years ago.
Though the Milankovitch conception has recently obtained further (but not
general) recognition, its individual aspects have been subject to critical analysis.
There are two reasons for this.
(1) Many new geological data have appeared after analyses of the kerns of sea
bottom rocks and ice.
(2) Considerable progress has been achieved in the numerical modeling of climate.
Analysis of both these information sources has shown that an adequate explana-
tion of paleoclimate changes is only possible after taking into account not only
variations in the orbital parameters but also other climate-forming factors (in par-
ticular, variations in GHG content in the atmosphere, including CO2 , the most
important one). In this connection, Palutikof et al. (1999) analyzed new geological
data on paleoclimate changes with a high temporal resolution in the context of
present-day ideas about global climate dynamics. Data from the analysis of ice kerns
and pollen obtained in 1990 led to the following two important general conclusions:
(1) Some of the observed data do not con®rm the description of cycles of glaciation
by the Milankovitch mechanism (this refers, in particular, to the data on 18 O in
a vein of calcite at Devil's Hole in Nevada, which testify to the antiphase nature
of cycles of glaciation).
(2) It follows from other data that this mechanism can explain only slow quasi-
periodic variations, but not transient variability (on scales from decades to
millennia) which had occurred much more frequently than was supposed earlier.
Climate researchers Palutikof and Holt (2004) say that droughts appear to be
linked to the formation of blocking zones of intense high pressure over the Atlantic
Ocean that divert rain-bearing wind depressions away from the Mediterranean. This
blocking may be related to the cycles of El NinÄo, the periodic reversal of winds and
waves in the tropical Paci®c Ocean. Due to the eects of toxic gases, it is assumed that
year-round average temperature in southern Europe will reach 18 C by the year 2030
and rainfall will diminish by 19% to 20%.
This variability in global mean temperature could reach several degrees during
several decades. A sudden large-scale climate cooling occurred in the Emsian
interglacial (122,000 years ago), when climatic conditions were very close to those
of today. Typical examples of transient climatic variability are Heinrich events
(Heinrich, 1988) and Dansgaard±Oeschger phenomena (Dansgaard et al., 1993).
Such events can repeat in the future.
Many uncertainties also remain about the impact of present changes in extra-
atmospheric insolation on climate. Soon et al. (2000) detected, for instance, the
super- sensitivity of the climate system to changes in UV insolation whose impact
is enhanced by the feedback due to the statistical stability of clouds, in¯uence of
tropical cirrus clouds, and stratospheric ozone (the ozone±climate problem needs
special analysis) (Kondratyev and Varotsos, 2000).
Interactive consideration of the dynamics of the biosphere as a climatic system
component is particularly interesting. The importance of this problem can be exem-
pli®ed by estimates of the climatic impact of the clearing of tropical forests in the
Amazon basin obtained by Bunyard (1999). The Amazon River basin, consisting
mainly of wet tropical forest (WTF), performs several important and still inade-
quately considered functions, including the input of energy from tropical to higher
latitudes, which is under threat in view of the high rate of WTF destruction.
According to present-day estimates, up to 17 million ha of tropical forests are
being destroyed every year, 6 million ha of which are in the Amazon basin. By the end
of 1988, an area of 21 million ha was deforested, and 10 years later this area reached
27.5 million ha, which exceeds the size of the U.K.
The felling of WTF has an important impact on the global carbon cycle, since
there is a danger of transforming WTF zones from sinks to sources of carbon for the
atmosphere. The ecological aspects of WTF felling are also important in view of the
ecological uniqueness of the tropical forests in Central and South America. Accord-
ing to available estimates, deforestation only in the Amazon River basin (over an area
of 360 million ha) will bring about an annual sink of carbon up to 0.56 billion tons,
and globally the level of this source could reach 4 10 9 tC yr 1 . In 1998 forest ®res
resulted in tropical deforestation over an area of 9 million ha, and from this source
alone the atmosphere may well have received 1±2 billion tC.
Potter et al. (2005) analyzed the ¯uxes of carbon over the vegetation cover for a
17-year period (1982±1998) from ground and satellite measurements and, using the
NASA-CASA model based on MODIS/AVHRR measurements and the radiation
Figure 1.1. Zonal and temporal dynamics of NEP for land ecosystems. From Potter et al.
(2003).
transfer algorithm, showed that the surface sink of CO2 for Eurasia since 1988
constituted 0.3 PgC yr 1 ±0.6 PgC yr 1 , with a strong interannual variability in
NEP. On the whole, for the year 2001, NEP was estimated at 3.6 PgC yr 1 (Potter
et al., 2003). West Europe, the Balkan mountains, Scandinavia, northern and western
Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia, western China, and central India were character-
ized by peculiar variability. This variability correlated with anomalous changes in
precipitation and solar radiation over given territories. The general pattern of NEP
distribution by latitudinal belts and months is shown in Figure 1.1. It can be seen that
the latitudinal belt 30 N±30 S is characterized by oscillations in ecosystem pure
primary production from 0.5 PgC mo 1 to 0.5 PgC mo 1 . Total pure primary
production increased from 45 PgC yr 1 ±51 PgC yr 1 for the period 1982±1998 to
52.6 PgC yr 1 in 2001 (Potter et al., 2003).
Over virgin tropical forests, about 75% of incoming solar radiation is spent on
evapotranspiration. Therefore, WTF deforestation will result in radical changes in
energy exchange and global atmospheric circulation. Still more substantial will be
changes in local climate, especially from the viewpoint of the rain rate which could
decrease by as much as 65%. Another problem is that we still do not know the
threshold level for WTF destruction. This level determines an ecosystem's ability to
self-support. If, for instance, this level is 20%, then the threshold has already been
exceeded.
Bengtsson (1999) emphasized that since non-linear processes have the greatest
eect on climate system variability, it is impossible to establish any simple connection
between external forcings (e.g., the growth in GHG content or extra-atmospheric
insolation variability) and the response of the climate system to these forcings. By
taking the unpredictability of some factors of climate into account, the diculty of
distinguishing between anthropogenic and natural climatic variability becomes clear,
and it is further hindered by the fact that both internal and forced modes of climatic
variability are determined by the same mechanisms and feedbacks.
Despite considerable progress being recently made in numerical modeling of the
climate system, it refers mainly to the atmosphere, which is demonstrated by the good
agreement of the results of numerical modeling of atmospheric circulation with
observational data. The results of `ènsemble'' numerical experiments indicate that
the 3-D atmospheric circulation in the tropics is determined mainly by the impact of
boundary conditions, whereas at high latitudes the impact of atmospheric dynamics
prevails. A reconstruction of the water cycle in the atmosphere turned out to be
realistic, too.
Considerable progress in modeling the interactive atmosphere±ocean system has
made it possible to successfully predict seasonal and interannual variability and, in
particular, El NinÄo events. The suciently adequate consideration of land surface
processes ensured a substantial increase in hydrological prediction reliability (river
run-o included).
In this context, Bengtsson (1999) discussed three directions taken in progressing
numerical modeling of the climate. Successful accomplishment of the TOGA pro-
gram promoted operational predictions of seasonal and interannual variability with
prescribed SST changes in the tropics taken into account, which determined the
critical signi®cance of reliable SST data.
The second direction is connected with numerical modeling of climate change on
a scale of decades and longer (in particular, with an explanation of the secular change
in global annual mean SAT). Apparently, in the case of long-term climatic variability
the in¯uence of stochastic forcing (ISF) can be considered a zero hypothesis.
Consideration of the impact of low-frequency ¯uctuations of climate on Caspian
Sea level showed that the long-term variability of the level is connected mainly with
SST anomalies in the eastern part of the tropical Paci®c Ocean. It turns out that
positive SST anomalies correlate with the growing rain rate in the Volga River
watershed basin and vice versa. The main reason for variations in Caspian Sea
level is the long-term dynamics of El NinÄo events, which should be considered as
chaotic.
An important part of the problem under consideration is the study of anthro-
pogenic climate variability. Calculations showed that a doubling of CO2 concentra-
tion should result in a decrease in outgoing long-wave radiation of 3.1 W m 2 at the
tropopause, and an increase of 1.3 W m 2 in downward stratospheric long-wave
radiation ¯ux. Thus, the total radiative ISF at the top of the troposphere will be
4.4 W m 2 . Calculations of the resulting SAT change using climate models revealed a
warming within 2.1 C±4.8 C as well as an increase in global mean rain rate within
1%±10%.
According to Bengtsson (1999), the secular trend in global mean SAT was
characterized before 1980 by the prevailing contribution of natural variability with
subsequent enhancement of the anthropogenic contribution. An important problem
facing subsequent developments is an improvement in numerical modeling (mainly
from the viewpoint of a more adequate consideration of various feedback mechan-
isms) in order to provide suciently reliable predictions on regional and local scales.
An urgent problem facing global modeling consists in interactive consideration of
biogeochemical cycles.
One of the most important aspects of numerical climate modeling is an evalu-
ation of anthropogenic climate-forming factors. In this connection, Allen et al. (1999)
discussed the possibilities of recognition, estimation, and prediction of the con-
tribution of anthropogenic global climate changes characterized by SAT using the
available data of observations and numerical modeling. The latter was carried out
with consideration given to the internal variability of the climate system, the green-
house eect (and related climate warming), and sulfate aerosol (climate cooling
eect).
Application of four global 3-D models of the interactive atmosphere±ocean
system gave values for global mean SAT increase over the period 2036±2046 (com-
pared with the pre-industrial level) within 1.1 K±2.3 K. Calculations of climate system
sensitivity to CO2 concentration doubling gave values within 2.5 K±3.5 K. According
to the HadCM2-G5 climate model developed at the Hadley Centre (U.K.), the global
mean ``greenhouse'' warming in the period 1996±2046 should constitute 1.35 K, and
with sulfate cooling equal to 0.35 the resulting warming will reach 1 K.
With the anthropogenic increase of SAT in the 20th century assumed to be
(0.25- 0.5) K/100 years, calculations made by a simple climate model give the level
of uncertainty about a balanced SAT predicted by 2040 constituting (1±2) K. How-
ever, such estimates can be suciently reliable only by adequately considering the
characteristic time for ocean adaptation. The necessity to take into account possible
sudden non-linear climate changes, which seriously con®nes advance prediction, is a
critically important aspect of prognostic estimates.
The most promising prospect for estimation and prediction of anthropogenic
SAT changes has to do with an analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of SAT
®elds, which takes into account the impacts of the greenhouse eect and aerosols.
Realization of this approach is seriously complicated, however, by the impossibility
of reliably assigning the aerosol forcing on the SAT ®eld. Another serious problem is
the necessity to take into account the impact on climate of changes in the content of
stratospheric and tropospheric ozone.
1.2.8 Contradiction between observational data and modeling results

The problem of anthropogenic climate warming is now the center of attention of not
only specialistsÐbut also of the general public. As we better understand this problem,
so the sensation of inconsistency in the results obtained in this ®eld increases, es-
pecially for the last decade. In this connection, Mahlman (1998) carried out an
overview of such results to analyze the fundamental scienti®c aspects of the problem
under discussion, with emphasis on the role of numerical modeling and analysis of
observational data in understanding present climate change. The works of Weber
(1992) and Lau and Waliser (2005) were dedicated to this subject.
The main diculty in understanding the causes of climate change is connected
with the impossibility of considering climatic feedbacks suciently reliably. Primar-
ily, this refers to cloud±radiation feedback, direct and indirect (by the eect on
radiation properties of clouds) impacts of atmospheric aerosols on climate, and
the impact of the atmosphere±ocean interaction on climate formation.
The often ignored peculiarity of the way in which greenhouse climate warming
manifests itself consists in its great time constant determined by the inert nature of the
climate system (the thermal ``memory'' of deep layers of the ocean lasts for centuries
and even thousands of years). Schlesinger et al. (2000), for instance, found from
observational data for the period 1858±1992 global oscillations of SAT with a period
of about 65±70 years. It is important to take into account the principal dierences
between the numerical modeling (and prediction) of weather and climate. In the case
of climate, it is important to ``tune'' and adjust in view of the diculty of adequate
consideration of the complicated totality of interactive processes and spatiotemporal
scales. In this context, the use of paleoclimatic data plays a substantial role, though
they cannot serve as analogs to possible climate change in the future.
Another serious concern relates to the adequacy of global observing systems,
and especially the degradation of ground observations manifested in some cases.
Mahlman (1998) emphasized that the contradictory character of the problem of
anthropogenic climate change consists in the absence of reliable quantitative esti-
mates of relationships between the contributions of natural and anthropogenic
factors of change. It is this fact that creates serious diculties for practical realization
of Kyoto Protocol recommendations.
Such conclusions, discussed earlier in detail, are gaining growing recognition, as
illustrated by the recent overview of Grassl (2000). In this context, the widespread use
of the term ``climate change'' (implying it is caused only by anthropogenic factors) is
rather bewildering. Also illegitimate is substitution of the term ``global warming'' for
the notion of ``climate change'' (in its true meaning), since both observational data
and numerical modeling results testify to the high spatial heterogeneity of present-day
climate change.
This terminological misunderstanding is not accidental, however. In fact, it is
aimed at disinformation for the sake of establishing a false conception of anthro-
pogenic (greenhouse) global warming, which was convincingly explained by
Boehmer-Christiansen (2000) who analyzed the political motivation behind this
conception.
In August 1997, Secretary of the U.S. Geological Survey Bruce Babbitt, in his
address to about 3,000 participants at the Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of
America, said that they should ful®ll their civic duty; they should convince the
skeptical American people that global warming is real and dangerous. In this con-
nection, Morris (1997) carried out an overview of the available scienti®c information
to analyze the grounds for this statement, since many specialists do not support the
apocalyptic predictions of anthropogenic global warming. Emphasis in the overview
was placed on the problem of distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic

climatic changes. In addition to the evidence that global warming is not so far an
anthropogenically caused phenomenon, Kaiser (2000) gave values of the process of
land dehydration in the south of the U.S.A. since 1930, and showed that these
processes observed for the last 50 years took place during the last 2,000 years. In
the mid-1970s, forecasts of global cooling due to sulfate aerosol predicted, for
instance, that this impact would con®ne any increase in global mean temperature
due to enhanced atmospheric greenhouse eect to a value of <2 C even with an eight-
fold increase in CO2 concentration. The cooling trend that appeared in the 1980s
made the problem of climate warming the center of attention. At the height of the
sultry summer of 1988, Congressman John R. Hansen declared at the U.S. Congress
a 99% probability of anthropogenic climate warming and its destructive conse-
quences for ecosystems in the future as well as the presence of consensus on this
problem among specialists, though many meteorologists and climatologists did not
share these opinions: respective developments did not allow reliable cause-and-eect
relationships to be established between anthropogenic emissions of GHGs and
observed climate change.
The political motivation behind support of the global ``greenhouse'' warming
conception brought about a huge increase in governmental ®nancing of such devel-
opments in the U.S.A. for the period 1990±1995 from £600 million to $1.8 billion.
In the context of estimating the contribution of various factors to global climate
formation, Morris (1997) indicated the importance of combined consideration of the
contributions of the greenhouse eect and solar activity, which over the period of
measurements constituted 0.31 C and 0.41 C, respectively. According to these
estimates, a doubling of CO2 concentration will lead to global warming within
(1.26±1.33) C. With such changes in climate there are no grounds to expect often-
predicted catastrophic consequences, such as a rise in World Ocean level and an
increase of epidemiological diseases. There is little doubt, however, that we should
expect an increase in crop yield. On the whole, the consequences of climate warming
should be positive. Even though reliable forecasts of the ecological consequences of
GHG emissions are impossible, it is clear that their reduction will be harmful for the
economy. Therefore, the main conclusion is that we should not try to prevent still
unreliably predicted climate changes, but adapt oneself to them. However, the
grounds for such a conclusion were disputed in numerous publications (Hansen et
al., 1998; Houghton, 2001; Hulme et al., 1999; Wigley, 1999).
In view of the complexity of the climate problem, in scienti®c publications on this
subject the emphasis is usually placed on the serious uncertainty of existing estimates,
which, on the one hand, favors continuation of studies, but, on the other hand,
is fraught with important consequences in the context of ecological policy. As
Boehmer-Christiansen (1997) noted, the `ècological'' bureaucracy and experts as
well as well-organized representatives of the fuel and energy industry are strongly
interested in proof of the existence of anthropogenic warming and want to get the
needed support of science. These three groups, which share common interests,
support non-governmental ecological organizations and thoroughly strengthened
them after the Rio de Janeiro Conference.
The main targets of ``green'' pressure are governmental departments which, in

view of the wide range of their responsibilities, either do not want to or cannot
accomplish the required measures, such as ecological taxes, subsidizing renewable
energy sources, nuclear energy, public transport, energy eciency, etc. The World
Bank (WB) and Global Ecological Fund (GEF), which support numerous and costly
developments (pure technologies, etc.) controlled by a great number of the specially
employed experts and specialists in the sphere of ®nance, are also lobbied.
It is no mere chance that the IPCC was contemplated in 1985, planned in 1987,
and started functioning in 1988. Governments of dierent countries support the plans
for GHG emission reduction not for ecologicalÐbut for other reasons: intensi®ca-
tion of national nuclear energy (Germany), an increase in the export potential for
power energy produced by nuclear power stations (NPSs) and gas stations (France,
Norway), an increase in ®nancial support, etc. Naturally, those countries where
power energy depends on coal are the most skeptical about ``greenhouse'' warming.
Having analyzed the role of dierent international organizations and programs
in the problem of global climate changes, Boehmer-Christiansen (1997) emphasized
that climate-related policy cannot be understood without a deeper analysis of the role
of science and scienti®c understanding of the coalition of non-ecological interests
(both commercial and bureaucratic), which are the driving forces behind the devel-
opment of events on an international scale. It still remains unclear where the coalition
will take us.
Constructive prospects to solution of this problem are connected with the devel-
opment and application of complex models to evaluate possible changes in climate
and socio-economic development. Parson and Fisher-Vanden (1997, 1999) and Dess-
ler and Parson (2005) prepared a detailed overview of the methods and results of
numerical modeling of global climate changes with the dynamics of socio-economic
processes taken into account, in which basic aspects of so-called integrated assess-
ments (IAs) were discussed. The main goal of such developments is substantiation of
recommendations for decision-makers in the sphere of ecological policy.
Four concrete goals include the following:
(1) assessment of possible response to climate change;

(2) analysis of the structure of scienti®c principles of modeling and characteristics of
the uncertainties of the results obtained;
(3) comparative assessments of possible risks;
(4) analysis of scienti®c progress achieved.
During the last few decades, two approaches have dominated in the development
of IA models: (1) the use of values obtained by inter-disciplinary groups of experts;
(2) formal numerical modeling. The ®rst of these approaches is characteristic of IPCC
eorts and developments within the framework of the Montreal Protocol, whereas
the second approach is practiced by individual specialists. The use of IA in the
analysis of possible impacts of climate changes on the development of energy and
economy in the context of the problem of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere has
attracted special attention.
A general evaluation of the obtained results consists in that IA models cannot be

used to substantiate highly specialized measures, because they are not suciently
detailed. Application of such models, however, is of great importance for the assess-
ment of possible uncertainties and, hence, the expediency of making decisions. In this
connection, it is essential that most substantial uncertainties in the system on the
whole or in recommendations for the needed ecological policy can turn out to be not
the uncertainties that are most important for understanding the environmental
changes or are widely variable.
When considering data for concrete models uncertainties can be ranged by their
signi®cance, but this ranging depends on the speci®c character of the models. Though
the use of IA models has made it possible to substantiate some interconnections
between socio-economic development dynamics and environmental variability, the
obtained results should be considered only as preliminary. So far, the use of IA
models has only slightly contributed to the assessment of comparative risks and
helped to answer the fundamental question to what degree and in what respects
are possible climate changes most substantial.
In view of these circumstances, so far results from the use of IA models to
substantiate an adequate ecological policy have been rather limited, and this refers
even to purely didactic assessments on the basis of simple models. The main problems
of IA model improvement include insucient understanding of probable impacts and
possibilities of adaptation; poorly substantiated or totally absent description of social
and behavioral processes in developing countries; an extremely limited idea of
unlikely, non-radical climate changes. Despite these and other unsolved problems,
the urgent need of further eorts in developing IA models raises few doubts.
In recent years, neuron models have been successfully used; they are more stable
than traditional climate models. For instance, Pasini et al. (2006) considered an
application of the neural network for climate modeling. The study was carried out
into the temperature trend on regional and global scales for the last 140 years. It
showed that the model based on the neural network reproduces with high accuracy
the non-linear eects observed in temperature variations over the northern Atlantic.
Finally, again, we emphasize that the global observing system must be improved.
The urgency of this problem can be illustrated by the results of the work of
Demirchian et al. (2002) which demonstrates a complicated spatiotemporal vari-
ability of SAT in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere as well as the
unsubstantiated stereotype of the conception of ``greenhouse'' warming, according
to which under Arctic conditions the impact of the growing concentration of GHGs
in the atmosphere should be especially strong.
1.3 LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AEROSOLS AND TRACE GASES
Numerous observations of the content of chemical compounds in the atmosphere

over dierent territories showed that there is undoubted evidence for their move-
ments over large distances. Among the key moments of such studies the following
results should be mentioned (Matthies and Scheringer, 2001; Kravtsov, 2002):
Sec. 1.3] 1.3 Long-range transport of aerosols and trace gases 71
. ozone from North America prevails in the ozone distribution over the northern
Atlantic in summer;
. emissions of chemical elements in Asia aect chemical processes over the
northwestern basins of the Paci®c;
. sulfur oxidized over the western Paci®c comes from sources located in Asia;
. there is a stable mechanism for the transport of pollutants from North America
to northern Atlantic basins;
. transport of pollutants between continents is controlled by meteorological fronts
and by the impact of moving air masses;
. balance of ozone in the troposphere over the northern Atlantic depends on NOx
and VOC content in the atmosphere over North America;
. formation of the ozone layer in the free troposphere over the northern Atlantic
depends strongly on NOx emissions by aircraft;
. in the Northern Hemisphere, there is an intercontinental transport of CO due to
forest ®res and biomass burning;
. a summer-positive and winter-negative correlation between CO and O3 concen-
trations is found over the northern Atlantic;
. long-range transport of dust particles from Asia and Africa to other territories
was recorded in some international experiments;
. there is much evidence of the accumulation of chemical elements in organisms,
soils, and water basins that originate from distant regions; and
. exploitation of oil deposits in Siberia ensures an input to tundra and taiga of a
wide spectrum of heavy metals and organic compounds.
Observations of the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants, organized

within the framework of some international programs such as IGAC, facilitated the
discovery of a number of eects, among which the following should be mentioned:
. the summertime ozone ¯ux to the northern Atlantic from anthropogenic sources
in North America totals (1.0±1.6) g mole da 1 and is detected at distances
1,500 km±3,000 km; and
. the amount of NOx delivered to the lower troposphere of the northern Atlantic in
the summer period promotes an increase in ozone content by 1 ppbv da 1 ±
4 ppbv da 1 .
Thus, the long-range transport of substances and gases is one of the important
factors of the spatiotemporal variability of aerosol and gas concentration in the
atmosphere. Though most aerosols remain in the planetary boundary layer (PBL),
some desert dust and biomass-burning smoke can be lifted to the free troposphere
and transported over great distances, even between continents. For instance, the
long-range transport of pollutants to the western coast of North America from Asia
was con®rmed by numerous analyses of the content of chemical compounds in
deposits, snow, ®sh, and birds. Pesticides, nitrates, sulfates, heavy metals, polychloro-
biphenyl, among others were found to have been transported across the Paci®c
Ocean. In particular, such distant transport was con®rmed in April 1998 during a
powerful dust storm in the west of China, with resulting dust clouds recorded by
satellite survey. A detailed study of the intercontinental transport and transformation
of aerosols and gases was carried out in the summer of 2004 in the INTEX-NA
experiment within the international program ICARTT where measurements from
satellites Aqua, Terra, and Envisat were used together with observations from
NASA's DC-8 and J-31 aircraft. Emphasis was placed on assessment of the quality
of the regional atmosphere, eects of intercontinental transport of chemical
compounds, and calculations of atmospheric radiation balance.
Ginoux et al. (2002), from observations at Barbados and Miami, showed that
there is a dependence of interannual and seasonal oscillations of atmospheric aerosol
concentration over the northern Atlantic on climate conditions in North Africa. A
comparison of these observations for the period 1981±1995 along with the results of
modeling the processes of aerosol transport using the GOCART model, suggested the
conclusion that the input of dust from North Africa and its deposition over the
Mediterranean is determined by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The main
results of Ginoux et al. (2002) suggest that the interannual variability of dust over the
Atlantic is a combination of variable dust emission and transport, both forced by the
NAO.
In addition to these processes of long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants,
there is the problem of evaluating the role of high concentrations of MGC aerosol
particles recorded in the atmosphere of the Amazon River region and central Brazil
during the dry season, which is connected with intensive biomass burning and natural
forest ®res. Freitas et al. (2005) estimated, for these reasons, the atmosphere of South
America receives annually up to 30 Tg of aerosol particles, most of which reside in the
atmosphere for about a week, with an additional input to the atmosphere of CO,
VOC, NO, NO2 , and other gases. From the available data, even in the optical range
the space-derived images record smoke clouds covering an area of 4 million km 2 ±5
million km 2 . Such a smoke load can change the global radiation balance and strongly
aect the biospheric water cycle. The consequences of smoke-loading of large terri-
tories can be assessed only with the help of global models such as GOCART,
MOZART, or RAMS (Chin et al., 2002). As studies showed (Freitas et al., 2005),
what is important in these assessments is the classi®cation of the types of smoke
sources connected with processes such as controlled biomass burning or natural
forest ®res. As a result of biomass burning the atmosphere receives, on average,
1,700 gCO2 kg 1 and 60 gCO kg 1 , and as a result of natural forest ®res these
¯uxes constitute 1,524 gCO2 kg 1 ±1,670 gCO2 kg 1 and 70 gCO2 kg 1 ±140 gCO kg 1 ,
respectively. The burning of dry vegetation on meadows or in savannahs gives
65 20 gCO kg 1 .
Investigations carried out within the framework of the ITCT project under the
IGAC program were aimed at studying the tropospheric chemistry and the atmo-
spheric transport of ozone, small dust particles, and GHGs and their components.
The main goal of these investigations was to understand how one continent can aect
the air quality over another continent, and what chemical transformations take place
during the intercontinental transport of atmospheric pollutants (Singh and Jacob,
2000). In carrying out these studies, an important problem is the choice of method for
evaluation of air quality. In this connection, Riccio et al. (2006) noted that to
minimize the eect of unavoidable uncertainty in modeling air quality, the Bayesian
approach is a good option as it makes it possible to carry out, with a high degree of
accuracy, a spatiotemporal interpolation of experimental data.
During the long-range transport from a source region to a distant territory, the
microphysical, optical, and radiative properties of aerosols get modi®ed. Information
about the impacts of transformation of aerosols and the processes of mixing during
long-range transport is very important for
. quantitative estimates of RF due to aerosols;

. assessment of heterogeneous processes; and
. determination of synoptically and climatologically important characteristics such
as optical thickness.
As part of some international and national projects, many measurements of

atmospheric optical thickness were carried out. By using passive satellite sensors,
estimates can be averaged vertically over a surface pixel. Therefore, to get a deeper
understanding of the optical thickness of atmospheric layers, aircraft measurements
are made which give the vertical distributions both of tropospheric aerosols and other
characteristics of the atmosphere. Among successful airborne experiments we should
highlight the ITOP, SHADE, and SAMUM experiments. These experiments made it
possible to study the transformation of aerosols during the distant transport of smoke
and desert dust.
As part of ITOP, measurements were carried out onboard the ¯ying laboratory
Falcon-20 which was able to monitor aerosol concentration and gas traces north of
Paris in July±August 2004. Synchronous measurements were made with ground-
based aerosol lidar which made it possible to assess the vertical structure of the
atmosphere. During these measurements aerosols were detected from Canada and
Alaska having crossed the North Atlantic, where at this time there was biomass
burning. The Falcon-20's equipment enabled us to
. record particles from 4 nm to 100 mm in size;

. record particle size variability;
. determine the optical properties of non-spherical particles; and
. accumulate particles with a diameter <4 mm for further chemical analysis.
Atmospheric aerosols aect the Earth's radiation balance directly through inter-
action with solar and terrestrial radiation and indirectly through cloud condensation
and ice particles in the atmosphere. Since polar regions are characterized by a
suciently pure atmosphere, even an insigni®cant increase in aerosol concentration
due to distant transport can strongly disturb the radiation ¯uxes in these regions.
Studies within ACE-1 showed that even distant regions of the Arctic are not pro-
tected against the global scattering of Asian dust (Stone, 1998). Detection of chemical
compounds in the Arctic atmosphere which could have been emitted from Asia or
any other region, where the sources of the pollutants detected in the atmosphere are
unknown, is another global problem.
A further problem related to the distant transport of aerosols is evaluation of
the consequences of possible ingress into the environment of heterogeneous micro-
organisms capable of causing undesirable and uncontrolled changes in ecosystems. In
any event, transported micro-drops of water or particles along with solid substances
can contain micro-organisms (which penetrate them or reside on their surface) from
cultivated soils, sources of industrial activity, forest ®res, and dust storms in deserts,
or storm processes on the ocean surface. Winds carry billions of tons of dust across
the globe, and this amount grows simultaneously with developing deserti®cation,
more frequent occurrence of droughts, and large-scale change in hydrological
structures.
Water drops in the atmosphere can contain dissolved ions and organic com-
pounds, and solid dust can condense these drops on its surface. There are a lot of data
on the climatic impact of aerosols (Kondratyev et al., 2006a), but their role in the
impact on biological processes due to the long-range transport of micro-organisms
was studied inadequately. In connection with this, there are some unanswered
questions.
. Can micro-organisms transported through the atmosphere as outlined above

aect ecosystem evolution?
. How can micro-organisms survive under extreme conditions (e.g., radiation,
temperature, snow, and ice in high latitudes) in other territories?
. Are there conditions under which pathogenic infections could remain in dust
clouds for a long time and as a consequence be a threat to human health or
biological communities?
. Is there enough information and data to be concerned about the impact of long-
range atmospheric transport on possible environmental changes in regions far
from civilization?
. What uncertainties limit the possibility to reliably assess the signi®cance of long-
range atmospheric transport, and what is its real contribution to current
environmental changes in distant regions?
From a biological perspective, it is important to study the type and amplitude of

chemical compounds which can propagate through the atmosphere at long distances.
Several questions come to mind here too.
. How many chemical compounds of biogenic type can reach the atmosphere
without being transported in it?
. Can these compounds be detected in the atmosphere, rain, or snowfall?
. Which of these chemical compounds are able to cause trophic eects after distant
transport?
. Can chemical compounds of biogenic type transported at long distances cause
changes in water ecosystems and over territories that have a low level of biogenic
provision (e.g., high mountains)?
. What types of micro-organisms can be transported to distant regions through

the atmosphere and what immunity against them do ecosystems located there
have?
The transport of small-grain aerosol dust from the Mongolian Gobi desert to
North America is normal in spring. Dust contains silicon, iron, aluminum, and
calcium, and the sizes of particles are distributed between 2 mm and 4 mm. It is dicult
to dierentiate this dust from volcanic ash and aviation ejections. The creation of
instruments to recognize these types of dust particles is important in connection with
the dangerous long-range transport of micro-organisms. Asian dust transported for
thousands of kilometers can be dangerous to human health elsewhere. Therefore,
knowledge of the character and origin of dust residing in the atmosphere is of
principal importance for human health protection. Hence, Beyer and Matthies
(2001) studied the long-range transport potential (LRTP) of the exchange of chemical
compounds between dierent natural domains.
To assess the global transport of CO and CH4 in the lower troposphere, NASA
launched in 1998 the Terra (EOS AM-1)/MOPITT satellite at an orbit of 705 km, it
had a spatial resolution of 22 22 km and could scan a band 600 km wide. From
processing the data obtained, Choi and Chang (2006) found that high concentrations
of CO along the eastern coast of the Japan Sea were caused by the distant transport of
CO from regions of biomass burning in Siberia and from industrial regions in China.
The levels of CO over eastern China exceed 35 ppb due to biomass burning in
Myanmar and Indo-China. The dierence in CO concentrations over the eastern
coast of the Japan Sea between periods of forest ®res (217 18 ppb) and their absence
(186 15 ppb) averaged 31 ppb. Also, the obtained estimates con®rmed that the
average rate of CH4 concentration increase in the atmosphere is close to 1% per
year, but a unique conclusion about the sources of this increase cannot be drawn.
Inomata et al. (2006) made attempts to overcome the uncertainties in the biogeo-
chemical cycle of chemical compounds in the region of the Japan Sea. In 1995 and
1996, measurements were made of the concentration of sulfur dioxide, ozone, sulfur,
and volatile sulfurous compounds over the coast of the Japan Sea at altitudes
between 0.5 km and 5.5 km. These measurements showed that concentrations of
particles and short-lived sulfurous gases (CS2 , H2 S, SO2 ) strongly dier in seasons
due to a change in the direction of air mass movements and meteorological con-
ditions. For instance, the mineral dust particles detected on April 23, 1996 were of
desert origin and were driven by westerly winds from the Asian continent. On the
other hand, the measurements on December 28, 1995 revealed low concentrations of
particles and short-lived sulfurous gases.
Lin et al. (2005) assessed the impact of the long-range transport of pollutants on
air quality over Taiwan from observational data made using the monitoring network
TERA in 2000 and 2001 during winter monsoons. It was shown that distant transport
adds 30 mg of pollutants to each cubic meter of atmospheric air. The partial pressures
of CO and SO2 increase by 230 ppb and 0.5 ppb, respectively. Air masses coming
from Asian contain 71 34 mg m 3 of dust. On the whole, the impact of distant
transport shows up better in coastal zones than in inland cities.
Figure 1.2. The structure of global environments, sources, and sinks of chemical contaminants
that take part in biogeochemical cycles.
These and similar observations indicate that, to remove the uncertainties in

assessing biogeochemical processes, a global model is needed of the biogeochemical
cycle of chemical compounds which can combine the available knowledge and
suggest regimes that need to be observed (Kondratyev et al., 2005). Moreover, this
model would need to parameterize the interaction of biogeochemical cycles and their
impact on the climate system through the dynamics of GHG concentrations in the
atmosphere (Schulze, 2000). The biogeochemical cycles of chemical elements cannot
be considered separately from other manifestations of global ecodynamics, especially
from those processes taking place in ecological and social spheres. The energy ¯uxes
in these spheres, governed by nature and humans, aect directly the power of local
and regional ¯uxes of gases and aerosols which due to the atmosphere and hydro-
sphere reach a global scale (Dearden and Mitchel, 2005). Therefore, the structure of
the global domain shown in Figure 1.2 should be considered in the GMNSS along
with both the spatial and temporal heterogeneities inherent in physical, chemical,
biological, socio-economic, and even political processes.
The demonstration of human activity through impacts on natural biogeochem-
ical cycles is shown in Figure 1.3, which explains the processes of anthropogenic
interference in the nitrogen cycle. As follows from Figure 1.3, anthropogenic inter-
fernce into the natural cycle of nitrogen can lead to a supersaturation of ecosystems
with nitrates and to their further salination and eutrophication. This human inter-
ference in the nitrogen cycle stimulates a decrease in the C/N proportion in land
ecosystems (Matson et al., 2002; Cordova et al., 2004).
Sec. 1.4] 1.4 Global dynamics and biogeochemical cycles 77
Figure 1.3. Schematic illustration of the structure of the nitrogen cycle in various environ-
ments. From Matson et al. (2002), Krapivin and Varotsos (2007).
1.4 GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
The processes of globalization and their present trends pose a lot of problems
connected with the search for a strategy to control the waste products of dierent
economy sectors. Of special concern are regions where NSS development is unstable.
In particular, the uncertainties in the further development of oil and gas import from
the reservoirs of the Middle East and North Africa in connection with the broadening
participation of China and India have led to uncertain predictions for future anthro-
pogenic CO2 ¯uxes. Keeping the trend of economy development in these regions at
current levels, CO2 emissions can increase by 52% by the year 2030 compared with
the present level (WEO, 2002, 2004, 2005). In the Middle East and North Africa the
need for energy is regulated by the needs of the growing population and economic
development. The need for primary energy in this region by 2030 can more than
double. At the same time, oil extraction can increase by 2030 by 75% and that of
gas can triple. The share of the region in total oil output will grow from 35% today to
44% in 2030. All this will be possible by investments in the energy infrastructure by
the countries of the Middle East and North Africa of up to $50 billion every year
(Cozzi, 2003).
A special IPCC report (IPCC, 2003) summarizing the results of a multi-year

analysis of environmental changes, gives some estimates and draws some conclusions
about the trends and causes of these changes.
. Global energy consumption and related input of CO2 to the atmosphere in the
21st century continues to increase. Fossil fuels produce 86% of the world's
energy and are a source of 75% of the anthropogenic input of CO2 to the
atmosphere. On the whole, in 2002 the world economy consumed 341 exajoules
(EJ),3 including 149 EJ of oil, 91 EJ of natural gas, and 1.1 EJ of coal.
. Global consumption of primary energy was growing, on average, by 1.4%
annually during the period 1990±1995 and by 1.6% during 1995±2001. The rates
of energy consumption were distributed through the economy sectors as follows:
0.3%±0.9% industry; 2.1%±2.2% transport; 2.1%±2.7% building, and 0.8 to
2.4% agriculture.
. About 38% and 17.3% of electric power are generated due to coal and natural
gas burning, respectively; oil burning provides 9% of electric power; and nuclear
power stations produce about 16.8%; 17.5% and 1.6% of electrical energy are
generated at hydroelectric power stations and other renewable sources. Due to
electrical energy production in 2001 the atmosphere received 2,250 MtC. In 2020,
coal is expected to occupy 36% of the energy niche.
. The average global CO2 emission increased by 1% in the period 1990±1995 and
by 1.4% in 1995±2001, with the contributions of individual economy sectors
constituting 1.7%±2.0% transport, 2.0%±2.3% building, and 1.0% to
2.8% agriculture.
. The average global rate of CO2 emission in the periods 1990±1995 and 1995±2001
constituted 1% and 1.4%, respectively, which is below the rate of growth of
energy consumption. Electrical energy generation produces most CO2 emissions.
The rate of growth of anthropogenic CO2 ¯uxes by economy sector constituted
1.7%±2.0% industry, 2.0%±2.3% building, and 1.0% to 2.8% agriculture.
. From the estimates of numerous experts, a stabilization of CO2 at the level
550 ppm by 2100 can be reached by reducing its emission by 7%±70% by this
time. This uncertainty is connected with a dierence in the estimates of CO2 sinks
and sources, both natural and anthropogenic.
. Total CO2 emission due to fossil fuel burning in 2001 was estimated at 24 Gt CO2
(6.6 GtC) per year with 47% of this emission made by industrial countries, 13%
by countries with a transition economy, and 25% by the developing countries of
the Paci®c sector of Asia. The contribution of individual sources constituted: car
production 263 MtC yr 1 , factories and building 1,173 MtC yr 1 , road transport
1,150 MtC yr 1 , and housing 520 MtC yr 1 .
. Among GHGs contributing to a change in the ERB the share of CO2 is 20% and
that of nitrogen oxides is 6%.
Tables 1.13 and 1.14 characterize the distribution of CO2 emissions by economy
sector and regions. It can be seen that the general volume of CO2 emissions
3
1 exajoule equals 10 18 joules.
Table 1.13. The distribution of CO2 emissions due to energy production by economic sector
and region (MtC) in 2002±2006. From IEA (2002, 2005a±c, 2007a, b).
Region Indicator of economic sector
PEHP VP OES MAC T CPS R OS S
Countries 325.7 113.9 31.1 151.9 92.3 16.9 91.1 37.2 860.1
with a
transitional
economy
The west 307.7 37.1 62.9 203.3 292.4 49.8 139.1 27.3 1,119.6
sector of the
OECD
U.S.A. 637.3 37.9 76.4 184.8 481.0 63.6 104.5 11.9 1,597.4
Paci®c 141.9 23.9 17.9 83.5 95.3 26.7 21.9 9.9 421.0
sector of the
OECD
Central 264.3 29.4 39.7 153.7 127.4 14.9 52.7 11.9 694.0
regions of
South-East
Asia
Asian 368.0 10.7 37.9 269.3 67.2 20.8 61.5 34.4 869.8
countries
with planned
economics
Middle East 77.1 1.8 32.4 52.7 46.9 4.5 24.8 30.7 270.9
Africa 75.9 4.3 11.0 37.6 39.2 1.4 12.2 9.5 191.1
Latin 61.1 10.1 36.7 76.3 108.2 4.9 22.1 11.3 330.7
America
Total 2,259.0 269.1 346.0 1,213.1 1,349.9 203.5 529.9 184.1 6,354.6
PEHP production of electric power and heat for the population, VP vehicle production, OES other
energy sources, MAC manufactures and construction, T transport, CPS commerce and population
service, R residence, OS other sectors, S total energy.
constituting 24,409 Mt CO2 in 2002 is expected to reach 33,284 Mt CO2 in 2015,

and by 2025 it will be 38,790 Mt CO2 , exceeding the 1990 level by 81%. Despite
the fact that the Kyoto Protocol (after its rati®cation by Russia) came into force
for more than 55 countries from February 16, 2005, its recommendation to
reduce CO2 emissions did not help to obtain a real forecast of the energy development
for the next decades. Nevertheless, with all signatory powers supposed to follow KP
Table 1.14. List of basic stationary CO2 sources emitting annually more than 0.1 MtCO2 . From
WEO (2002).
Source Volumetric Volume of Share of all Average

concentration CO2 emissions of value of CO2
of CO2 in emitted CO2 emission per
emitted gas source
(%) (MtC) (%) (MtC/source)
Coal 12±15 2181.4 59.69 1.08
Natural gas 3±10 205.5±207.4 5.65 0.21±0.28
Petroleum 3±8 89.1±178.7 2.43±4.89 0.15±0.35
Other fossils Ð 16.7 0.45 0.21
Hydrogen Ð 0.8 0.02 0.35
Cement industry 3±20 218.0±254.6 5.97±6.97 0.22±0.34
recommendations, the rate of growth of CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel combustion
over the period 2002±2025 will average 2%. The information given in Table 1.15,
where all economy sectors and most characteristic regions are compared by their
development index, can help to forecast future energy development. Along with the
growth in population size and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) increase, the impact of
GDP eciency reduction on the increase of the Human Development Index (HDI)
should be taken into account. In any event, an ideal model of globalization should
foresee the equalization of HDI over all countries due to a re-distribution of excess
resources. However, such a model is far from reality, and therefore available predic-
tions of the growth of CO2 emissions dier strongly in their estimates of rates and
volumes. Table 1.16 emphasizes the apparent heterogeneity of distribution of
resources and, hence, the role of individual regions in improving the environment.
Rates of change in anthropogenic carbon ¯ux intensity will vary in future
according to technological progress, economic policy, and a change in priorities
for power production in line with sustaining environmental quality. Bearing this
prospect in mind, the expected increase in the eciency of scienti®c±technical pro-
gress should continuously reduce the ¯ux of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere,
and this means that a high level of HDI in countries with a transitional and devel-
oping economy can be reached without sudden human-induced climate change. As
can be seen in Table 1.16, a special place in this process is occupied by the U.S.A.
which did not join the KP, but proposed a Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI) of their own, according to which GHG emission reduction has to be in
the interests of the U.S.A. This initiative supposes the development of methods to
control GHG emissions by means of quota exchange between states.
An important aspect of globalization is the impossibility under present NSS
conditions to reliably assess the development of individual processes without
Table 1.15. Distribution of CO2 emissions by economic sector and region with a prognosis to
2025. From IEA (2005b).
Region/ CO2 emissions in 2002 from Prognosis of

Country energy production total volume
for CO2 emission
(MtC yr 1 ) (MtC yr 1 )
Due to Due to Due to Total 2010 2025

oil gas coal emission
com- com- com-
bustion bustion bustion
USA 671.3 328.7 565.6 1565.6 1853.3 2339.1 1.7
Canada 74.9 43.7 42.1 160.7 191.3 236.6 1.7
Mexico 69.9 22.7 6.3 98.9 120.8 173.5 2.5
West Europe 522.1 221.9 225.4 969.4 1055.2 1134.4 0.7
Japan 179.5 40.2 102.5 322.2 337.7 360.4 0.5
Australia/ 38.0 16.9 67.5 122.4 145.4 181.1 1.7
New Zealand
Russia 97.3 212.0 106.6 415.9 500.0 629.5 1.8
Other CIS 61.5 101.4 76.8 239.7 298.9 397.3 2.2
East Europe 52.5 37.2 108.5 198.2 237.2 305.7 1.9
China 182.8 19.4 705.5 907.7 1583.6 2524.0 4.5
India 76.2 13.1 190.7 280.0 389.1 603.6 3.4
South Korea 65.8 13.1 44.0 122.9 157.4 231.1 2.8
Other Asia 205.2 73.0 106.3 384.5 535.0 845.6 3.5
Middle East 219.7 124.9 27.3 371.9 504.4 730.6 3.0
Africa 103.0 38.0 92.3 233.3 317.8 464.8 3.0
Brazil 75.1 7.1 11.2 93.4 125.4 207.1 3.5
Other Central 119.4 48.4 8.7 176.5 248.6 350.8 3.0
and South
America
Developed 1556.0 674.0 1009.3 3239.3 3703.6 4425.4 1.4

economies
Transitional 211.2 350.5 291.8 853.5 1036.3 1332.2 2.0

economies
Developing 1047.5 336.6 1186.3 2570.4 3861.2 5957.9 3.7

economies
Total world 2814.8 1361.2 2487.7 6663.7 8601.1 11715.6 2.5
average annual percent of CO2 emission change for the period 2002±2025.
Table 1.16. Characteristics of regions and countries by the relationship between CO2 emission
and gross domestic product (GDP). From IEA (2005a).
Region/country Ratio between CO2 emission Average annual

(tons) rate of change
and GDP
(mln. $U.S., 2000) (%)
History Forecast
1990± 2002±
1970 1990 2002 2010 2025 2002 2025
U.S.A. 1,117 701 571 501 393 2.1 1.6
Canada 1,046 691 612 562 481 1.7 1.0
Mexico 351 452 377 340 255 0.2 1.7
West Europe 695 471 377 333 264 1.9 1/5
Japan 627 348 359 310 259 1.7 1.4
Australia/New Zealand 1,094 702 721 667 544 1.3 1.2
Russia 837 820 850 635 445 0.0 2.8
Other CIS 1,211 1,843 1,346 926 602 0.3 3.4
East Europe 1,454 1,198 679 549 372 2.3 2.6
Asia 890 637 470 434 300 2.0 1.9

China 2,560 1,252 605 570 375 4.4 2.1
India 286 346 324 272 185 0.4 2.4
South Korea 791 698 680 555 454 0.5 1.7
Middle East 506 894 951 833 621 2.0 1.8
Africa 522 609 595 549 431 0.4 1.4
Central and South America 481 408 414 407 314 0.5 1.2
Total world 853 649 517 461 344 1.6 1.8
analyzing all correlations that exist in the present world. Hence, many subject-
oriented international programs can only make sense as a means of accumulating
data and knowledgeÐnot as a means to study the global environment. There is a
special dependence between power engineering and biogeochemical cycles.
Power engineering in the near future will continue to be closely linked to the use
of natural gas, oil, and coal, the processing of which in industry and other economy
sectors will unavoidably lead to emissions to the atmosphere, in addition to carbon
Figure 1.4. Regional distribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from developed coun-
tries projected to 2010. From EPA (2001, 2005, 2006).
dioxide, of many other gases with a higher potential for atmospheric warming (Figure
1.4). Prediction of how power engineering will develop and the related input to the
atmosphere of GHGs depends on reliably parameterizing the socio-economic sector
in the GMNSS. According to EIA (2005a±c), the globe can be divided into several
clusters that dier in their economic development (Figure 1.5).
. Countries with a developed market economy are home to 15% of the world
population. These are North America, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, and
New Zealand.
. Countries with a transitional economy are home to 6% of the world population.
They include Eastern Europe and the former U.S.S.R. countries.
Figure 1.5. Schematic structure of world economies. From EIA (2005), WEO (2002, 2004,
2005). Percent annual growth in the need for energy resources is shown in the respective regions.
. Countries with a developing economy are home to 78% of the world population:
(1) Asia (53%);
(2) Africa (14%);
(3) the Middle East (4%); and
(4) South America (7%).
On the other hand, countries can be divided into groups organized by other
principles.
. Countries that have rati®ed, agreed, joined, or approved the KP on GHG

emission reduction.
. Countries of the European Economic Union (EU).
. G8 countries.
. The three member states of the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA).
. The 30 countries that participate in the Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD).
. The 11 oil-exporting countries that make up the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC).
. The eight countries of the developing Paci®c basin.
. The seven countries of the Persian Gulf.
Clearly, in each of these clusters there are agreed strategies about energy devel-
opment, but there are contradictions, too. The optimal version of such a global
structure can be found with the model of (V; W)-exchange described in the work
Figure 1.6. Forecasts of rates of average annual increase in energy supply made by the IEA,
PEL, and PIRA. From IEA (2005a±c).
of Kondratyev et al. (2006b). The methods of predicting how power engineering will
develop up to 2025 worked out in EIA (2005a±c) made it possible to obtain weighted
estimates of the growth rate for the need of energy sources, the realization of which
will lead in the late 21st century to a 550 ppm level of CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere (Figure 1.6). To some extent, this will be connected with a re-distribution
of priorities between economy sectors. It is expected that the role of transport loading
of the environment will substantially grow. If in 1990 the share of transport con-
stituted about 20% of the consumed energy, by 2095 it will be 40%. But at the same
time, the progress in industry will lead to a reduction in energy consumed from 38%
in 1990 to 17% in 2095. It is expected that the role of such economy sectors as energy
production and building will not change substantially. The predictions shown in
Figure 1.6 carried out by dierent scienti®c groups characterize the great uncertainty
in the initial data used as the basis for the GMNSS biogeochemical unit. Hence, in
modeling global biogeochemical cycles and assessing their role in the environment,
the development of a global model of economic development deserves special
attention.
1.5 GLOBALIZATION, WEALTH, AND HUMAN HEALTH
With the development of global infrastructures in trade, industry, agriculture,

science, politics, and other spheres of human activity in the early 21st century the
problem has appeared of not only NSS sustainable development but also, and to a
greater extent, a search for balanced relationships between the environmental state,
resources accumulated by individual countries, and human health (Kalb et al., 2004).
The last 50 years witnessed an important and rapid transition of humankind from
isolated social, political, and economic relationships to large-scale political and
growing connections between ever distant regions. This has already led to appreciable
changes in biodiversity, the structure of land and water ecosystems, and changes in
the global biogeochemical cycles of important biospheric elements, such as water,
nitrogen, carbon, and sulfur. The course of the biogeochemical cycles of these
elements directly aects the conditions for life practically everywhere on the globe
as well as human health (McMichael et al., 1999). Water plays a special role. The per
capita daily need for water exceeds 1.4 litres. At present, only 0.65% of the freshwater
on the planet is readily available (rivers, lakes, groundwater, soil moisture) (Table
1.17). Its biogeochemical cycle is a natural mechanism which guarantees the sustain-
ability of water supplies, making it a renewable source. The heterogeneity of the
spatial distribution of water supplies determines the maximum size of population
over a given territory.
Unfortunately, there is practically no scienti®cally grounded conception of
NSS development that foresees balanced development of all its vitally important
indicators. For the ®rst time, a note appeared in the IPCC Second Assessment Report
(Fankhauser and Tol, 1997) that warned, ``the sustained health of human popula-
tions requires the continued integrity of Earth's natural systems.'' This statement
should prompt studies of the relationships between the health of population at large
and that of an individual, the dependence of which is not apparent. As Kalb et al.
(2004) and Goodhand (1999) noted, globalization has brought forth a lot of purely
intellectual problems, the solution of which will need to take a multitude of notions
into account, such as livelihood, identity, governance, transnationalism, and
knowledge. The present is characterized by a lot of continued con¯icts whose eect
on global ecodynamics has not as yet been evaluated.
The ®rst time the problem of sustainable development was formulated construc-
tively was in the works of Gorshkov (1990), Gorshkov et al. (2000), and Kondratyev
et al. (2004b). The theory of biotic regulation is the basis for this constructive
Sec. 1.5] 1.5 Globalization, wealth, and human health 87
Table 1.17. Water distribution in the biosphere.
Component Quantitative characteristics
Occupied Volume Level Share of

square total volume
of water
(10 6 km 2 ) (10 6 km 3 ) (m) (%)
World amount of water 509 1454.193 2856.96 100
Water amount in oceans and seas 361.3 1370.323 3792.76 93.96
Land water 149 47.9871 322.06 3.3
Freshwater 148.8 28.2403 189.79 1.94
Saltwater 509 23.7468 46.65 1.63
Atmospheric water 509 0.0129 0.025 0.001
Water vapor in the atmosphere 509 0.011481 0.023 0.0008
Water droplets in the atmosphere 509 0.001129 0.0025 0.00009
Ice crystals in the atmosphere 509 0.000129 0.0005 0.000009
Water in the ice of Arctic 16.2275 24.0641 1482.92 1.65

countries and glaciers
Ground ices of perennial frozen 21 0.3 14.29 0.021

earth
Liquid water in the upper part of 149 23.62593 158.56 1.62

the terrestrial cortex
Reservoirs 0.4 0.005 12.5 0.0003
Lakes 2.1 0.1764 84 0.12
Groundwater 134.8 23.4 174 1.61
Renevable groundwater 134.8 0.01332 0.1 0.0009
Soil moisture 82 0.0165 0.2 1.13
Marsh water 2.682 0.01147 4.28 0.0008
Rivers 148.8 0.00212 0.01 0.00001
Biological water 148.8 0.00112 0.008 0.00008

formulation, since it creates a bond between the key elements of the NSS. This theory
states that the structural units of living space are cells of the mechanism that regulates
and sustains the environment and thereby determines the ecological stability of
humankind. As globalization widens this stability increasingly depends on decisions
made by humans. The division of human society into those living in developing and
developed countries uniquely determines the living standards of each individual.
Though the notion of globalization is rather vague, nevertheless it implies an
enhancement of the economical and political in¯uence of international corporations
on the life of the population at large. This in¯uence results in the intensi®cation
and broadening of global economic integration, when the ¯ows of ®nances, goods,
technologies, population, and service are independent of frontiers. Inevitably, an
economic elite dominates the scene and political conservatism originates with their
desire to create a new world order irrespective of the health and standard of living of
the population of many countries. In connection with this, Galeano (1997) noted that
the wealth of many developed countries is a result of exploiting colonies and their
natural and human resources, thereby growing richer and at the same time raising the
poverty level in poor countries. The rhetoric on globalization and its advantages
remains a shield for these processes.
Present-day globalization has the following special features:
. the growing scale and rate of transnational movement of goods, services,

and ®nances limit the possibilities for many countries to participate freely in
international trade;
. there is a certain asymmetry between the levels of legal protection in trade
relations (where many international agreements and regulations are in force;
for instance, within the WMO), and between social and environmental relation-
ships (where the authority of governments over international organizations is
limited);
. the GDP of some transnational corporations exceeds the GDP of many
countries, which enables the former to dictate price policies and govern the global
labor market practically independently of the governments of these countries;
. enhancement of the impact of market liberalization processes with participation
of WB and IMF forces many countries to participate in global economic integra-
tion without any prospect of improving the living standards of the population;
. social, economic, environmental, and health issues are becoming `ìnherently
global'', rather than purely national or domestic. The environmental impacts
of human activities are planetary in scale and scope; disease pandemics and
economic stagnation partly underpin state collapse and regional con¯ict.
Despite the apparent negative aspects of globalization, it does accelerate the

propagation of knowledge and technologies, medicine included. Of course, it brings
with it national health services, education, and, in particular, protection for the health
of women and children. In poor countries, globalization can reduce poverty and
human health can reach an acceptable level. On the other hand, the critics of global-
ization advocate that it can be a means of propagating infectious diseases and creates
Figure 1.7. Global spread of cholera, 1961±1991. From Lee et al. (2002).
conditions under which Western living values are imposed, which runs counter to
traditional local culture. It is not clear whether such integration in the global econ-
omy will always and under all conditions lead to economic growth and poverty
reduction. China, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam exemplify a
reserved attitude to globalization with national values preserved. Countries that
cannot protect themselves in such a way include those of Africa and South America,
are strongly in¯uenced by the WB and IMF, and where domestic economic activity is
suppressed, with deteriorating balances of payments and, as a result, with growing
poverty and deterioration of health.
Figure 1.7 and Table 1.18 characterize the propagation of one of the most
dangerous diseases, cholera. It can be seen that there is a distinct correlation between
the propagation of cholera and provision to the population of pure water and food.
In general, the long-range transport of aerosols whose intensity depends on the state
of land ecosystems, strongly promotes the propagation of dangerous diseases. Agents
of dangerous diseases that can directly get into the lungs can hitch a lift on dust
particles at long distances. From the estimates of Grin et al. (2001), in this way 10
species of bacteria, 5 species of fungi, and 5 viruses are known to travel long distances
and, as a result, anthrax, tuberculosis, diphtheria, bacterial meningitis, smallpox, etc.
can propagate. The dust sources themselves are usually characterized by an increased
susceptibility to asthma. Along with the direct impact on human health, the long-
range transport of aerosols can aect health through food prepared from crops
grown in ecosystems subject to fallout of pesticides and other pathogens. For
instance, the fungal spores from the Cameroon in Africa are known to cross the
Atlantic and reach the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean in 9 days. Sugar cane
Table 1.18. Cholera cases and fatalities. From Lee (2001), WHO (2000, 2006).
Year Number of cases Number of deaths Number of countries

aected
1991 596,419 15,286 54
1992 461,469 8,064 59
1993 376,767 6,779 62
1994 381,767 10,628 71
1995 210,049 5,034 78
1996 143,349 6,689 71
1997 147,425 6,274 65
1998 293,121 10,586 74
1999 254,310 9,175 71
2000 137,071 4,908 56
2001 184,311 2,728 58
2002 142,311 4,564 52
2003 111,575 1,894 45
2004 101,383 2,345 56
2005 131,943 2,272 52
rust (Puccinia melanocephala) is a classical example of ecosystem contamination in

South America due to the transport of diseases from Africa.
Noji (2001) argued that, in addition to the current indirect human impacts on the
process of propagation of dangerous diseases, there is a risk of direct human inter-
ference in this process. The notion of bioterrorism is one negative manifestation of
globalization. A human being can deliberately cause an epidemic of a dangerous
disease and panic among the population of a vast region, destroying its social
infrastructure and leading inevitably to man victims. Thus, the spectrum of danger-
ous risks for the population of individual regions is growing and is not constrained by
the direct economic mechanisms that regulate the living standards of the population.
Of particular danger for countries under the in¯uence of the WB and IMF is the
external funding of the import of cheep goods (a form of dumping). For instance, in
Zambia, the opening up of the domestic market to textile import led to the collapse of
the domestic textile sector with the closure of the majority of textile factories and the
ensuing unemployment, closure of schools, reduced ®nance for the health service and
agriculture. In contrast, such countries as Cuba, Costa Rica, China have not com-
pletely opened their frontiers for import and, as a result, despite low indicators of per
capita GDP, are characterized by a high level of human health. This testi®es to the
fact that the impact of globalization on the common wealth and health of a nation
can manifest itself both through their improvement and aggravation, depending on a
combination of many external and internal factors. It is clear that the uncontrolled
liberalization of many branches of industry and agriculture can be a stimulus in
aggravating national standards of living. Protectionist policies, including subsidies,
may well preserve rural life and livelihood (arguments frequently advanced by the EU
and Japan, see Labonte, 2001; Labonte and Sanger, 2006a, b). This bene®ts the health
and quality of life of rural people. But such policies can also support ecologically
unsustainable forms of production and increase oligopolistic corporate control over
global food production. Thus, the question arises ``Who gains and who loses?'' This
question can be answered by solving another problem which consists in evaluating
the impact of globalization on health in the context of political, social, and economic
traditions of the country as well as in its dependence on the level of economic
development, natural resource supply, and general state of the society.
Lee et al. (2002) analyzed the discussions on the merits and shortcomings of
globalization in the context of the health of population at large, noting that depend-
ing on ideological motives the opinions of experts are diametrically opposed. Their
conclusions range between support for globalization and its complete denunciation.
In this connection, two questions arise:
(1) What are the mechanisms and consequences of globalization that can lead to
an improvement in human health globally as a whole and in each region
individually?
(2) How can humankind control the consequences of globalization, and mold them
to improve living standards?
Answers to these questions can be found in Kondratyev et al. (2003a, 2004a),

where a constructive procedure was developed to evaluate the consequences of
realizing the development scenarios based on simulation experiments using the
GMNSS. The GMNSS parameterizes the fundamental links between population
health, the environment, and economic development. Without a clean and prosper-
ous Earth it is impossible to create the conditions necessary for life. Realization of
this dream in the present world faces a lot of contradictions between the desire to
raise living standards and preserve the environment. The GMNSS provides a coor-
dinated method of resolving these contradictions as a result of simulation experi-
ments that take into account data on global and regional geoinformation monitoring.
Among the many programs delivering information for such experiments we can
highlight SPARC under which data on stratospheric processes are obtained. These
data are important for ERB speci®cation.
The problem of health constantly appears as an unavoidable consequence of
globalization, when the developing processes of urbanization, local violence, and
regional con¯icts (Anderson et al., 2006) enhance the risks of morbidity and
Figure 1.8. Interactions between the environment, the economy, and society.
mortality. This trend has led to the development of emergency medicine as a global
discipline. In principle, the environmental state is the determining factor of the public
health of countries at all levels of socio-economic development. Therefore, the prob-
lem of looking for information indicators to allow integral evaluation of the state of
public health grows in importance. Many national and international organizations
are trying to resolve these problem.
. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Protecting human health is an

integral part of the EPA's mission. The EPA conducts numerous research pro-
grams throughout the world that study the eects of pollution on the human
body. Research eorts include studies on how pollution aects children and
people with asthma and other illnesses and how water contaminants may aect
swimmers and beachgoers. Monitoring environmental quality also plays an
important role in protecting human health. The EPA works with state and local
agencies, as well as volunteer and other citizens groups, to monitor air and water
quality and to reduce human exposure to contaminants in the air, land, and
water.
. Environmental Protection Agency Ireland. The EPA's Viewpoint papers examine
a variety of environmental topics, highlighting key environmental issues, the role
of the EPA, government departments, local authorities, and other state agencies,
as well as listing recommendations for future action including agriculture and the
environment, air quality, anaerobic digestion, bathing water quality, brown®eld
site redevelopment, climate change, drinking water quality, forestry and the
environment, renewable energy, waste management, and waste prevention and
minimization.
. Environment Protection Authority, Victoria, Australia. EPA Victoria's purpose is
to protect, care for, and improve the environment. The basic question is how can
people help protect the environment? Dierent approaches are considered as the
means to solve this question, including
(1) the use of environmentally friendly transport;
(2) recycling, which is good news for the environment as it helps conserve
natural resources and reduces pollution and littering;
(3) composting and reduction of waste;
(4) careful disposal of litter;
(5) energy saving, which reduces air pollution and greenhouse gases.
. World Health Organization. WHO projects, initiatives, activities, and informa-
tion products include numerous topics. Every year the World Health Report
takes a new and expert look at global health, focusing on a speci®c theme, while
assessing the current global situation. Using the latest data gathered and vali-
dated by WHO, each report paints a picture of the changing world of health and
shows how, if recent lessons are understood and heeded, unprecedented health
gains can be achieved.
. The Pan American Health Organization. PAHO topics include child health,
epidemiology, food and nutrition, gender and health, health promotion, injuries
and violence, lifestyles, maternal health, non-communicable diseases, etc.
. Health Organizations in Eurasia. The HOE controls many medical associations,
institutes, and centers in the countries of the former Soviet Union and Asia, and
organizes conferences and publications.
. Association of Asian Paci®c Community Health Organization. AAPCHO's
announcements include
(1) a new UDS Fact Sheet giving patient demographic trends at AAPCHO
member centers;
(2) a statement in response to the CDC report on hepatitis;
(3) in collaboration with the UCSF an updated AAPI HIV/AIDS Fact Sheet.
The words ``health'' and ``wealth'' are used by many socially oriented organiza-
tions both to introduce basic ideas about social justice in the world and to ®nd the
fundamental criteria for NSS development. To a great extent, these two notions are
used to discover the strategy of an individual's behavior (Andrews, 2004) and to a
lesser extent, at the social level. Clearly, the state of public health depends directly on
the state of the economy. In developed countries, 5%±10% of GDP is spent on
medical services and other measures to maintain public healthÐan impossibility
for many developing countries. Therefore, a globalization priority should be the
equalizing of economic potentials for use in sectors directly related to public health
maintenance. And this equalization should be realized at the level of the UN.
2
The role of biogeochemical cycles in
global ecodynamics
2.1 SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS
Assessment of the state of a complicated system like the NSS requires several
indicators to characterize its state by whatever criteria are chosen (e.g., at U.N. level).
Essentially, it is a question of introducing some rule or norm to estimate any
deviation of the NSS from its prescribed state. Formalization of this process is
reduced to the choice of some functional Rx1 ; . . . ; xn where fxi g is the vector of
the state of the NSS. The functional R determines the estimation rule of any deviation
of the NSS from its optimal state. The problem consists in choosing the kind of R.
The problem consists in determining this space and choosing the kind of R.
There are traditional indicators in some spheres of knowledge (Table 2.1) that are
used to measure the state of some section of the NSS (e.g., in economy, sociology, and
environmental protection, Munzi et al., 2007). GDP-type indicators, through the
®nancial state of the country, re¯ect the state of human health and environmental
quality. The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) broadens GDP func-
tions, providing an assessment of economic progress. In economics, the consumer
price index (CPI) or retail price index (RPI) is a statistical time series measure of the
weighted average of prices of a speci®ed set of goods and services purchased by
consumers. The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) re¯ects the ability of
society to protect the environment. The 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index
report (ESI, 2005) suggests 21 indicators of environmental sustainability, divided
into 5 categories. To some extent, the proposed approach makes it possible to rate all
countries and determine the shortcomings of their development strategies. The main
diculty in the formalized quantitative estimate of ESI is the choice of scale of such
an estimate for each ESI constituent. Nevertheless, practically all countries have a
96 The role of biogeochemical cycles in global ecodynamics [Ch. 2
Table 2.1. 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index building blocks, indicators, and variables.
From ESI (2005).
Components Indicators Variables
Environ- Air quality Urban population weighted NO2 concentration. Urban

mental population weighted SO2 concentration. Urban population
systems Biodiversity weighted TSP concentration. Indoor air pollution from
solid fuel use. Percentage of country's territory in
Land threatened ecoregions. Threatened bird species as
percentage of known breeding bird species in each
Water quality country. Threatened mammal species as percentage of
known mammal species in each country. Threatened
Water amphibian species as percentage of known amphibian
quantity species in each country. National Biodiversity Index.
Percentage of total land area (including inland waters)
having very low anthropogenic impact. Percentage of
total land area (including inland waters) having very high
anthropogenic impact. Dissolved oxygen concentration.
Electrical conductivity. Phosphorus concentration.
Suspended solids. Freshwater availability per capita.
Internal groundwater availability per capita.
Reducing Reducing Coal consumption per populated land area.

environmental ecosystem Anthropogenic NOx emissions per populated land area.
stress stress Anthropogenic SO2 emissions per populated land area.
Anthropogenic VOC emissions per populated land area.
Reducing Vehicles in use per populated land area. Annual average
population forest cover change rate from 1990 to 2000. Acidi®cation
pressure exceedance from anthropogenic sulfur deposition.
Percentage change in projected population 2004±2050.
Reducing Total Fertility Rate. Ecological Footprint per capita.
waste and Waste recycling rates. Generation of hazardous waste.
consumption Industrial organic water pollutant (BOD) emissions per
pressures available freshwater. Fertilizer consumption per hectare of
arable land. Pesticide consumption per hectare of arable
Reducing land. Percentage of country under severe water stress.
water stress Productivity over®shing. Percentage of total forest area
that is certi®ed for sustainable management. World
Natural Economic Forum Survey on subsidies. Salinized area due
resource to irrigation as percentage of total arable land.
management Agricultural subsidies.
Reducing Environmental Death rate from intestinal infectious diseases. Child death
human health rate from respiratory diseases. Children under ®ve
vulnerability mortality rate per 1,000 live births. Percentage of
Basic human undernourished in total population. Percentage of
sustenance population with access to improved drinking water source.
Sec. 2.1] 2.1 Sustainability indicators 97
Components Indicators Variables
Average number of deaths per million inhabitants from

Reducing ¯oods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. Environmental
environment- Hazard Exposure Index.
related natural
disaster
vulnerability
Social and Environmental Ratio of gasoline price to world average. Corruption

institutional governance measure. Government eectiveness. Percentage of total
capacity land area under protected status. World Economic Forum
Eco-eciency Survey on environmental governance. Rule of law. Local
Agenda 21 initiatives per million people. Civil and
Private Political Liberties. Percentage of variables missing from
sector the CGSDI ``Rio to Joburg Dashboard''. IUCN member
responsiveness organizations per million population. Knowledge creation
in environmental science, technology, and policy.
Science and Democracy measure. Energy eciency. Hydropower and
technology renewable energy production as a percentage of total
energy consumption. Dow Jones Sustainability Group
Index (DJSGI). Average Innovest EcoValue rating of
®rms headquartered in a country. Number of ISO 14001
certi®ed companies per billion dollars GDP (PPP). World
Economic Forum Survey on private sector. Environmental
innovation. Participation in the Responsible Care
Program of the Chemical Manufacturers' Association.
Innovation Index. Digital Access Index. Female primary
education completion rate. Gross tertiary enrollment rate.
Number of researchers per million inhabitants.
Global Participation in Number of memberships in environmental

stewardship international intergovernmental organizations. Contribution to
collaborative international and bilateral funding of environmental
eorts projects and development aid. Participation in
international environmental agreements. Carbon
Greenhouse emissions per million $U.S. GDP. Carbon emissions per
gas emissions capita. SO2 exports. Import of polluting goods and raw
materials as percentage of total imports of goods and
Reducing services.
transboundary
environmental
pressures
service that estimates a huge amount of parameters as part of ESI:
. population growth rate;

. Gross National Product (GNP) growth rate;
. Human Development Index (HDI);
. energy consumption index;
. carbon and GHG emissions;
. production of hazardous wastes;
. annual rate of deforestation;
. protected areas;
. soil erosion;
. water use.
In each case, to choose the development strategy or to determine the optimal

structure of the system to be studied, the problem of optimization is solved by
Rx 01 ; . . . ; x 0n min Rx1 u1 ; . . . ; um ; . . . ; xn u1 ; . . . ; um ;
fui g
where fx 0i g is the stable state of the system, and fui g are the governing parameters.
Indicators of sustainability dier from traditional indicators of the environment
state by their complex structure. Traditional indicators measure, for instance, the
quality of water resources, the state of education, provision of population with food,
etc. Sustainability indicators re¯ect more complicated connections between NSS
components. Figure 1.8 shows the relationship between just three NSS segments.
It can be seen that the three dierent segments are closely interrelated. At the same
time, optimization of the criterion R can be followed by superposition of additional
limitations inherent to a given nation, region, or group of population whose living
standards dier strongly from the standards established, for instance, by the United
Nations.
The problem of sustainable development of the NSS, initiated at the Rio de
Janeiro 1992 Summit, is being discussed and supervised by the U.N. Commission on
Sustainable Development (CSD). Its main mandate is to monitor the progress that
has been made on the path toward a sustainable future. The CSD in its third session
in 1995 adopted a ®ve-year Work Program on Indicators of Sustainable Develop-
ment. The elements of the Work Program on Indicators of Sustainable Development
are as follows:
. enhancement of information exchange among interested actors;

. development of meteorological bulletins for governments;
. training and capacity building at regional and national levels;
. monitoring the experience of a few selected countries;
. evaluation of the indicators and their adjustment, if necessary;
. identi®cation and assessment of linkages among the economic, social, institu-
tional, and environmental aspects of sustainable development;
. development of highly aggregated indicators;
. further development of the conceptual framework for ISD enlisting the services
of experts in economics, social sciences, physical sciences, as well as policy-
makers, including non-governmental organizations and taking on board the
views of local people.
Such a highly aggregated indicator was proposed by Kondratyev et al. (2004a).

The NSS can be presented as a combination of nature (N) and human society (H),
which constitutes a single planetary system. Therefore, separating them to derive
global and regional models has to be done conditionally. The systems N and H have
hierarchical structures jNj and jHj, goals N and H, and modes of behavior N and H,
respectively. From the mathematical point of view, any interaction between systems
N and H can be considered a random process t with an unknown law of distribu-
tion, representing the level of intensity of the relationships between these systems or
estimating the state of one of them. The goals and modes of behavior of systems are
functions of the index . The index can vary in such a way that the modes of
behavior of the systems can be antagonistic, indierent, and cooperative.
The main goal of system H is to achieve a high standard of living with guaranteed
prolonged survival. The goal of system N can be determined in terms of survival.
System N behaves according to the objective laws of co-evolution. In this sense the
selection of H and N is conditional and can be interpreted as a division of the many
natural processes into controlled and uncontrolled. Without dwelling on the philos-
ophy of this division, let us consider systems H and N to be open and symmetrical
in their description. System H includes technologies, science, economic potential,
industrial and agricultural production, sociological structure, size of population, etc.
The H±N interaction causes changes in , the level of which aects the structure of
vectors H and H. Of course, there exists a threshold of max beyond which human-
kind ceases to existÐbut nature survives. The asymmetric nature of systems H and N
causes changes in the goal and strategy of system H.
At present, the interaction between these systems ! max is occurring at a rapid
pace, and therefore individual components of vector H can be attributed to the class
of cooperative behavior. Since the present socio-economic structure of the world is
presented by all the states in the world, we shall consider a country as a functional
element of system H. The t function re¯ects the result of the interaction of
countries both with each other and with nature. Let us describe the sum of the results
of their interaction by the matrix B kbi j k, each element of which has a meaning of
its own:
8
< 1 for cooperative behavior;
bi j 1 for antagonistic relationships;
:
0 for indifferent situations.
A country Hi has mi possible ways to reach the goal H i ; in other words, it uses a series
1 mi j
of 0 strategies fH1i ; . . . ; H i g. The weight of each strategy H i is prescribed by the value
Xmi
pi j @ pi j 1A. The resulting value of the parameter is a function of the indicated
j 1
characteristics, and each time moment of the situation is described by a game-

theoretic model (Krapivin, 1978).
An objective estimate of the dynamics of the natural medium N N1 ; N2 is
possible with some assumptions using models of the biosphere N1 and climate N2 .
The accumulated experience of numerous scientists in deriving such models has
resulted in construction of point, regional, box, combined, and spatial models. This
experience enables synthesizing a new type of global model, covering the key bonds
between the hierarchical levels of natural and anthropogenic processes.
In general, the condition of systems H and N can be described by vectors
xH t fx 1H ; . . . ; x nH g and xN t fx 1N ; . . . ; x m
N g, respectively. The combined trajec-
tory of these systems in n m-dimensional space is described by the function
t FxH ; xN which is determined by solutions of the global model equations.
The form of F is determined by knowledge of the laws of co-evolution, and therefore
there is a possibility of investigations in dierent spheres of science. The available
estimates of F (Krapivin, 1996) reveal a correlation between the notions survivability
and sustainability. According to Ashby (1956), the dynamic system is `àlive'' within
the time interval ta ; tb , if its determining phase coordinates are within `àdmissible
limits'' x iH;min x iH x iH;max ; x jN;min x jN x jN;max . And since systems H and N
have a biological basis and limited resources, one of the indicated boundary con-
ditions turns out to be unnecessary (i.e., for the components of vector
X
nm
x fxH ; xN g fx1 ; . . . ; xnm g the condition xmin xi should be satis®ed).
i 1
This simple scheme requires that the total energy in the system be preserved and its
elements be diverse.
Of course, the notion of ``system survivability'' is more capacious and informa-
tive. By ``system ecology'' many authors mean the stability and integrity of the
system; in short, the system's ability to resist external forcings. In other words,
survivability is measured by the tendency of the system to suppress large oscillations
of its structure and elements, returning the system to its former equilibrium state.
Thus, system survivability should be understood as its ability to actively resist the
impact of external factors and preserve its characteristics inde®nitely.
The biosphere O, as a complicated unique system, functions according to the laws
of co-evolution of its sub-systems, human society H and nature N being the basic
ones. The impact of human activity on nature, being comparatively small scale, can
only (apparently) be assessed newly developed technology. Clearly, for this purpose a
system approach is needed to formalize the ecological, technological, economic, and
geopolitical interactions between sub-systems H and N. In general, system H has at
its disposal technologies, science, economic structure, size of population, etc. System
N has a set of mutually dependent processes; for example, climatic, biogeocenotic,
biogeochemical, geophysical, etc. processes.
From the viewpoint of the theory of systems, H and N are open systems. Their
division is a conditional procedure aimed at selecting controlled and non-controlled
components of the environment. Without going into the philosophical and
methodical aspects of this procedure, we assume that both systems are symmetrical
from the viewpoint of their simulation (i.e., we assume that each system has a goal,
structure, and behavior of its own). Then, the H±N interaction can be described by
the process of (V; W)-exchange consisting in that each of the systems, to reach its
goal, spends resources V and, in exchange, obtains a new resource of an amount W.
Each system is aimed at optimizing the (V; W)-exchange with another system (i.e., to
maximize W and minimize V). Now, let us write the equations for (V; W)-exchange:
9
WH H ; N max min WH; N min max WH; N > =
fHs ;jHjg fNs ;jNjg fNs ;jNjgfHs ;jHjg
; 2:1
WH H ; N min max WH; N max min WH; N > ;
fHs ;jHjg fNs ;jNjg fNs ;jNjgfHs ;jHjg
where H and N are the optimal systems. Here, in contrast to traditional game
theory models, there exists a power spectrum of the H±N interaction covering the
®nal intervals of changes in the pay-os WH and WN that depend on the aggressive-
ness of each. A concrete de®nition of the pay-o function requires a certain system-
atization of the mechanisms of the human and natural co-evolution. One of the
widely used models of the balanced development of the world community and nature
subjected to criterion (2.1) consists in identifying system H as all large cities with
adjacent industrial and recreation zones. There are many ways of considering and
formally describing such structures. In particular, there exist a well-known method of
logic information modeling of the processes of rational nature use and a simulation
method of controlling ecological±economic systems. According to these methods, to
solve a concrete problem it is necessary to conceptualize the information base of the
model and to select most of the general relationships between the elements of the
interacting systems. This procedure is completed by enumerating all the functional
elements of the systems and determining the capacity loads on their elements. The
whole procedure ends with a synthesis of the simulation model, which, within
assumed assumptions, becomes an instrument of investigation. In the case considered
we assume that the structure of system H includes population G, pollutants Z, and
natural resources M (i.e., jHj fG; Z; Mg). Similarly, the structure of system N
consists of such elements as the climate parameter: temperature T, environmental
quality Q, areas of forests L , and agricultural lands X (i.e., jNj fT; Q; L ; X g).
The behavioral strategy of system H is formed from the distribution of investments
to the retrieval of resources UMG , struggle with pollution UZ , and agricultural
investments UBG (i.e., HS fUMG ; UZG ; UBG g). The behavioral strategy of system
N is identi®ed with the rate of investments ageing TV , population mortality G ,
agricultural productivity HX , the cost of resource retrieval GMG , and the time
constant of biospheric self-cleaning of pollutants TB ; that is
NS fTV ; G ; HX ; GMG ; TB g:
Equations (2.1) are the basic equations for the survival model. In general, this
model is formulated in terms of the theory of the evolutionary technology of model-
ing. If all possible states of the biosphere with acceptable conditions for human life
constitute the multitude G fGi g, then as a result of the eect of Ck on the biosphere,
two outcomes are possible: Ck Gi ! Gi 2 G and Ck Gi ! Gi 2 = G. When the

sequence of biospheric states fCk Gi g 2 G, then we can speak about persistent co-
evolution of the system H [ N. No doubt, there is a problem of adequacy between
real processes and their simpli®ed presentation as a model. Nevertheless, despite the
philosophical doubt about the expediency of mathematical modeling for future
assessment of the kinetics of biospheric parameters, the model approach has proved
to be pro®table. Use of the biospheric model instead of the biosphere itself is con-
venient: ®rst, because there is more information about the model than about the
biosphere; second, because the model is easier to handle; and, third, because direct
experiments with the biosphere are dangerous. All these aspects are the subject of
studies for global ecoinformatics aimed at achieving sucient similarity between the
observed behavior of the system H [ N and the model. This is possible with
the constant renewal of data bases and broadening of knowledge in accordance with
the technology underlying information formation on the multitude of biospheric
parameters suggested by Krapivin and Kondratyev (2002).
2.2 IMPACTS OF POPULATION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT ON

Humans have always used the environment as a source of resources. However, for a
lengthy period of time their activity did not markedly aect the biosphere. Only in the
late 19th century did changes in the biosphere induced by human activity drop on
human civilization like a ton of bricks. Trying to improve living standards and pro®t
margins, humans continue to step up the rate of material production without little
regard for the consequences (Tables 2.2±2.6). With such an approach, most of the
resources taken from nature return to nature as waste, often poisonous or un®t for
utilization. This threatens the existence of both the biosphere and humankind
(Moiseev, 1990; Schwarzenbach, 2002).
The global processes of formation and movement of a living substance in the
biosphere are connected with cycles of huge masses of matter and energy. In contrast
to purely geological processes, biogeochemical cycles with the participation of living
substances are characterized by much higher intensity, rate, and amount of matter
involved in the cycle. With the appearance and development of humankind, the
process of evolution has markedly changed. At earlier stages of civilization, the
cutting down and burning of forests for agriculture, cattle grazing, craft, hunting
wild animals, and wars had devastated whole regions, led to destruction of vegetation
communities and extermination of some animal species. With civilization develop-
ment, especially intensive after the industrial revolution in the late Middle Ages,
humankind had become much more powerful, capable of exploiting huge masses
of matter (both organic, living and mineral, inert) to satisfy their growing needs. The
growth of population size and the extensive development of agriculture, industry,
building, and transport led to deforestation in Europe and North America. Large-
scale grazing led to the loss of forests and grass cover, as well as soil layer destruction.
Dozens of species of animals in Europe, America, and Africa were exterminated. The
Sec. 2.2] 2.2 Impacts of population growth and development on biogeochemical cycles 103
Table 2.2. Regional distribution of energy production in 2006. From BP (2007).
Region Oil Coal Natural Nuclear Primary Hydro-

gas energy energy electricity
(1,000 (Mt oil (billion (Mt oil (Mt oil (Mt oil
bbl daily) equivalent) m 3 ) equivalent) equivalent) equivalent)
North America 13,700 632.8 754.4 212.3 2,803.0 152.0
South and 6,881 51.4 144.5 4.9 528.6 147.9

Central
America
Europe and 17,563 445.7 1,072.9 287.8 3,027.2 184.6

Eurasia
Middle East 25,589 0.6 335.9 0 554.2 4.9
Africa 9,990 147.8 180.5 2.4 324.1 20.2
Asia Paci®c 7,941 1,801.5 377.1 128.2 3,691.5 178.6
European 2,306 171.7 190.0 219.5 1,722.8 71.4

Union 25
OECD 19,398 1,026.2 1,078.5 537.0 5,553.7 299.2
Former Soviet 12,299 236.7 1,007.5 58.4 4,278.7 56.4

Union
building and exploitation of industrial enterprises, extraction of economic minerals

led to serious violations of natural landscapes, and the contamination of soil, water,
and air with dierent wastes.
The dynamics of the growth of population size on Earth is characterized by a
certain stability which causes misgivings that the growing power of the present
Table 2.3. Current indicators of the state of the global consumer society.
Region/Country Population Resources Consumption of

resources
(%) (%) (%)
U.S.A. 5 6 40
OPEC 15 10 40
Russia 3 25 5
Third world 77 59 15
Table 2.4. List of regions and countries in which primary energy consumption exceeds 0.5% of
total energy generated in the world at the beginning of 21 century. From BP (2005).
Region/country Energy consumption (Mt oil equivalent) D1 D2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (%) (%)
North America 2,737.5 2,682.3 2,723.0 2,741.7 2,798.6 2,815.7 2,803.0 0.5 25.8
U.S.A. 2,311.9 2,257.1 2,291.0 2,298.5 2,343.5 2,350.4 2,326.4 1.0 21.4
Canada 289.8 289.9 296.7 302.3 311.4 317.1 322.3 1.7 3.0
Mexico 135.8 135.3 135.3 140.4 143.8 148.2 154.2 4.0 1.4
South and Central 456.2 457.0 454.4 461.0 485.1 507.9 528.6 4.1 4.9
America
Venezuela 61.9 65.2 66.1 58.5 65.2 69.0 70.4 2.0 0.6
Argentina 58.9 57.7 54.3 58.7 62.2 66.7 71.0 6.6 0.7
Brazil 182.8 179.5 183.9 186.1 193.5 199.2 206.5 3.7 1.9
Other South and 152.6 154.6 150.1 157.7 164.2 173.0 180.7 4.5 1.7
Central America
Europe and Eurasia 2,829.2 2,856.0 2,858.4 2,905.4 2,956.0 2,981.7 3,027.2 1.5 27.8
Belgium/Luxemburg 66.4 64.0 64.9 68.6 71.1 72.2 73.9 2.4 0.7
France 254.9 258.4 256.7 259.8 263.4 262.9 262.6 0.1 2.4
Germany 330.5 336.2 330.1 332.1 330.7 325.2 328.5 1.0 3.0
Italia 176.4 177.2 175.9 181.2 184.2 184.3 182.2 1.1 1.7
Kazakhstan 41.0 42.3 44.1 47.9 51.2 56.6 60.3 6.5 0.6
Netherlands 86.4 88.3 89.0 90.4 93.1 94.7 92.3 2.6 0.8
Russia 636.0 637.5 646.6 656.6 666.1 672.5 704.9 4.8 6.5
Spain 129.2 133.0 134.7 141.2 145.5 146.5 145.8 -0.5 1.3
Sweden 48.6 52.1 48.5 46.2 48.4 50.8 47.3 6.9 0.4
Turkey 76.6 71.5 75.1 79.9 85.3 89.2 94.7 6.1 0.9
Ukraine 136.7 135.9 134.1 134.2 139.9 139.7 137.8 1.4 1.3
U.K. 223.5 227.0 221.7 225.1 227.0 228.6 226.6 0.9 2.1
Uzbekistan 51.4 54.8 56.2 52.4 49.5 49.1 48.5 1.0 0.4
Other Europe/ 571.6 577.8 645.7 659.4 671.7 681.6 695.7 2.1 5.7
Eurasia
Middle East 402.9 420.1 445.1 464.0 501.0 532.9 554.2 4.0 5.1
Iran 122.0 128.6 142.2 149.7 162.4 172.7 178.8 3.5 1.6
Saudi Arabia 116.4 120.2 123.7 131.7 142.8 151.4 158.9 5.0 1.5
U.A.E. 41.1 43.7 48.6 50.4 53.5 55.4 57.2 3.3 0.5
Other Middle East 123.4 127.6 130.6 132.2 142.3 153.4 159.3 3.8 1.5
Africa 275.8 279.5 286.2 298.5 313.5 315.8 324.1 2.6 3.0
Egypt 47.5 49.4 49.5 51.9 54.2 56.8 58.8 3.5 0.5
South Africa 108.4 107.0 110.9 117.3 123.6 118.7 120.2 1.3 1.1
Other Africa 93.1 95.2 96.8 99.1 104.4 107.6 111.5 3.6 1.4
Asia Paci®c 2,607.0 2,673.6 2,775.1 2,983.5 3,269.2 3,470.1 3,641.5 4.9 33.5
Australia 111.2 113.4 116.7 116.6 119.0 119.6 120.8 1.1 1.1
China 966.7 1,000.0 1,057.8 1,228.7 1,423.5 1,566.7 1,697.8 8.4 15.6
India 320.4 324.2 338.7 348.2 380.1 401.6 423.2 5.4 3.9
Indonesia 95.2 101.4 104.4 103.9 110.6 114.7 114.3 0.3 1.1
Japan 514.8 513.0 510.2 510.9 519.8 522.5 520.3 0.4 4.8
Malaysia 45.8 47.8 51.3 56.3 60.4 65.1 67.0 3.0 0.6
Region/country Energy consumption (Mt oil equivalent) D1 D2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (%) (%)
Pakistan 41.9 42.9 43.8 45.8 50.0 55.4 58.0 4.7 0.5
South Korea 191.1 195.9 205.0 211.8 217.3 224.9 225.8 0.4 2.1
Taiwan 95.3 95.1 98.1 104.0 107.7 110.5 113.6 2.7 1.0
Thailand 61.2 63.3 68.8 74.7 80.6 83.5 86.1 3.1 0.8
Other Asia Paci®c 163.4 176.6 180.3 182.6 200.2 205.6 214.6 4.2 2.0
25 EU countries 1,654.9 1,681.9 1,666.8 1,697.5 1,719.1 1,719.6 1,722.8 0.2 15.8
OECD countries 5,359.6 5,327.7 5,366.4 5,421.9 5,522.9 5,559.9 5,553.7 0.1 51.1
World 9,308.7 9,368.6 9,458.9 9,856.5 10,323.4 10,624.0 10,878.5 2.4 100.0
Table 2.5. Trends in the impact on natural resources and the environment. From Starke (2004).
Indicators Trends
Fossil fuels and In 2002, the global level of the use of coal, oil, and natural gas was 4.7
the atmosphere times higher than in 1950. The level of CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere in 2002 was by 18% higher than in 1960, and, apparently,
by 31% higher than before the industrial revolution (1750).
Degradation of During the last decades, more than a half of the Earth's wetlands (from
ecosystems coastal marshes to intra-continental lowlands exposed to ¯oods) has
been lost due to various measures taken by humans, about half of virgin
forests have been liquidated, 30% of the remaining forests have
degraded. In 1999, the scale of the use of wood as a fuel and in industry
had more than doubled as against 1950.
Sea level In the 20th century the World Ocean level rose by 10 cm±20 cm (at an
average rate of increase 1 mm/yr±2 mm/year due to melting of
continental glaciers and thermal extension of water masses (under
conditions of climate warming).
Soils/Land About 10%±20% of agricultural lands have degraded in many respects

surface (loss of fertility), which has brought a decrease (during the last 50 years)
in yield by 18% on cultivated lands and by 4% on pastures.
Fishery In 1999, the catch increased 4.8 times as against 1950. Creation of the
modern ®shing ¯eet has led to 90% of tunny-®sh, cod,
marlin, sword-®sh, shark, halibut, ¯ounder, cramp-®sh being caught.
Water Over-exploitation of groundwater has led to a decrease in the level of

groundwater in many agricultural regions of Asia, North Africa, the
Middle East, and the U.S.A. The impact of sewage, fertilizers,
pesticides, oil product remains, heavy metals, stable phosphor-organic
compounds and radioactive substances has led to a substantial decrease
of groundwater quality.
Table 2.6. Energy consumption and living standards in different countries. From Prescott-
Allen (2001).
Country WI Per capita energy Share with respect to

consumption (rank) energy consumption
in Sweden
(%)
Sweden 1 10 100
Finland 2 6 112
Norway 3 8 104
Austria 5 26 61
Japan 24 19 70
U.S.A. 27 4 140
Russia 65 17 71
Kuwait 119 3 162
U.A.E. 173 2 190
civilization could create such loads on the biosphere that it will lead to its complete
reorganization (Moiseev et al., 1985). In reality, the global population increases at a
rate of 80 million people annually. This growth leads to a number of crises, among
which the following should be mentioned.
(1) Environmental threats

. Expansion of the sphere of human activity inevitably leads to habitat reduction
caused by the global-scale extermination of plants and animals.
. Loss of biodiversity leads to ecosystem instability, especially with respect to
climate changes and penetration in them of foreign elements (Leveque and
Mounolou, 2003).
. Mass migration of population to cities in developing countries leads to over-
exploitation of water resources and, as a result, to environmental conditions
unfavorable for human health.
. Deforestation leads to breaking the global carbon cycle, which causes climate
change.
. GHG emissions, increased rate of energy use, and consumption of non-
renewable resources intensify the negative processes in the environment (Stevens
and Verne, 2004; Manwell et al., 2002).
(2) Poverty.
The growth of population size in developing countries is accompanied by a reduction
in the means of subsistence. Only 20% of the global population has adequate living
conditions. The other 80% live under conditions of de®cit. This imbalance will
probably worsen, bearing in mind that in future 90% of the population increment
will be observed in less developed countries. Poverty and poor living conditions
will not help international nature protection organizations to provide sustainable
development and reduction of negative impacts on biogeochemical cycles.
(3) Scarcity of food and freshwater

During the ®nal years of the 20th century and especially in the early 21st century,
productive agricultural systems have led to marked economic progress in many
countries. But, at the same time, problems have appeared connected with the
changing quality of soils in vast regions. This change is connected with the use of
fertilizers, which substantially change the role of soil in the biogeochemical cycles of
important elements such as nitrogen, carbon, and phosphorus. But, in connection
with the lack of provisions, this process of soil quality transformation will grow in
scale. In reality, the global market of grain and equivalent foodstus provides only
200 million tons annually. At the same time, approximate estimates of the annual
need of foodstu import for China and India reach 240 million tons and 30 million
tons, respectively. Clearly, the question of weighted development of agriculture needs
to be the subject of a special study. As Smil (1997) and Williams (2005) justly noted,
only a model approach and reasonable policy will allow optimal solution of this
problem. In this connection, Norton (2003) provides a clear, systematic review of
important classes of policy issues in developing countries and discussed the emerging
international consensus on viable approaches to those issues providing guidance
for policy-makers and policy-analysts along with both real-world examples and
conceptual frameworks.
The growth of population size and trends in civilization development bring with
them many problems of global ecodynamics, especially the impact of society on
climatic trends. The broader issues of the ecological, economic, and human eects
of climate change were considered by Hardy (2003). The following aspects of the
climate change problem were explained:
(i) The causes and effects of climate change from a natural and human environment
perspective.
(ii) Mitigation options and policies that could reduce the impacts of climate change,
and global impacts with case studies taken from North America, Europe,
Australia, and elsewhere.
Climate change, population growth, improvement of technologies for natural

resource utilization, change in the social structure of population, globalization, and
an increase in living standards are all interactive components of the NSS. Therefore,
consideration of each component leaving out of account its interaction with other
components does not give objective estimates and strategies of nature use. In many
experts' opinions, the main cause of all the global problems of ecodynamics rests with
the growth of population size. To some extent this is true, considering the emerging
trends in the environmental pollution and expenditure of natural resources.
Among the biogeochemical cycles subject to powerful anthropogenic impact, the
water cycle is arguably the most important. Under present conditions, along with
growing water use in industry and agriculture, the need of humans for domestic water
supplies grows, too. The per capita volume of consumed water per day for these
purposes depends on region and living standard and ranges from 3 L to 700 L. For
instance, in Moscow the per capita water consumption is 650 L, which is one of the
highest indicators in the world. Canada consumes 1,600 m 3 of water per capita per
year. America uses about 10 9 m 3 of water per day. In most countries, the spheres of
freshwater consumption include domestic, public supply, industrial, irrigation,
thermoelectric, mining, livestock, and aquaculture. In future, these spheres will
broaden, which will inevitably lead to increased volumes of waste water. From the
most optimistic predictions, the dynamics of the use of water resources will constitute
22% of the growth compared with 1995, reaching the indicator of water use of
4,772 km 3 yr 1 (Rosengrant et al., 2002). On the environmental side, high consump-
tion places stress on rivers, lakes, and groundwater aquifers and may require the
construction of dams and hence ¯ooding with serious ecological impacts.
It follows from analysis of water use during the last 50 years that the annual
increase of irretrievable water consumption (i.e., when the water used is lost to nature
for ever) constitutes 4%±5%. Future calculations show that at this rate of consump-
tion, and considering the increase in population size and in the volume of production,
by 2100 humankind may drain all supplies of freshwater (Cech, 2004; Pentius, 2003).
The present freshwater de®cit is observed not only in the territories naturally
short of water resources, but also in many regions where until recently water has been
plentiful. At present, the need of freshwater is not satis®ed for 20% of the urban
population and 75% of the rural population of the planet.
The violation of the basic natural cycles of water by channeling it for anthro-
pogenic needs can lead to degradation of vegetation cover, shifts of vegetation zones,
and poorer crop harvests.
2.3 ANTHROPOGENIC SCENARIOS AND

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
The concept of sustainable development was de®ned in the U.N. Report by

Brundtland (1987) as development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. In this
context, Moody-Stuart (2006) writes:
``Given the proportion of people in the world who are not adequately fed, not
educated, have no modern medicine, and no means of adequate livelihood, we are
plainly not meeting the needs of the present generation. I do not take an
Sec. 2.3] 2.3 Anthropogenic scenarios and sustainable development 109
apocalyptic view of the environment, but in relation to climate change, we are

potentially compromising the ability of future generation to meet their needs. If
the needs of the developing part of the world are to be met, large amounts of
additional energy will be needed. And yet we know that the fossil fuels on which
our own economics are built are having an adverse impact on the global climate.''
Unfortunately, despite this widespread opinion on sustainable development no con-

structive mechanism for balanced development of the NSS has been proposed. The
main problem is that people ®nd it dicult to formulate a weighted criterion for
further development. In other words, people are reluctant to place limits on their
desires and needs by adjusting them to natural processes.
In this connection Moiseev (1988) wrote that the planet is entering a new stage in
its history, when only a collective Mind, a collective Will, and joint purposeful eorts
will make it possible to avoid disasters and open up prospects for the further
development of civilization. In reality, Homo sapiens has entered a new era in its
existence, when natural and anthropogenic processes have become comparable in
power, when the vulnerability of development has become apparent, and when
impacts on nature can cause irreversible processes. Essentially, people now face
the prospect of having to choose from a restricted number of alternatives for further
development of scienti®c±technical progress and how it ®ts with global ecodynamics.
Vernadsky (1944, 1977) testi®ed to the fact that humankind was approaching a
threshold stage of evolution when the biosphere get transformed into the noosphere.
And here, under the in¯uence of numerous factors a moment of bifurcation might
occur that is dicult to foresee, but after which a new but irreversible process begins.
Knowledge of the mechanisms involved in the rami®cation of evolutionary processes
helps us to foresee the consequences of realization of certain social development
scenarios. Only on this basis will it be possible to form scenarios that could be
realized.
Moiseev (1988) writes:
`Ànd now, when at the stage of the noosphere, which is a stage of the revolu-
tionary reorganization of the whole process of the planetary development, the
determining factor of evolution is human activity, we should realize that Mind
becomes a participant of the evolutionary process, exactly the participant which
with all its power follows the common laws. And under such conditions, con-
sidering all limits, barriers inherent to Nature, we have the right to speak about
the directed development of the biosphere.''
It is a question of limits established by natural laws, such as the law of conservation

of mass, energy, etc. As Moiseev (1988) says, limits form like banks along the
evolutionay canals, beyond which nature cannot go. Transition from one canal to
another is only possible in places where they intersect, which can be determined using
global modeling technology (Degermendzhy and Bartsev, 2003; Kondratyev et al.,
2005). Moiseev (1979) wrote:
``Very important and interesting processes occur in present life caused by inten-
sive development of science and engineering, owing to which the life structure of
people and their world view change during 2±3 decades instead of centuries
needed before.''
This important remark is key to constructively comprehending the problems facing

today's global society; most people are beginning to understand their role in environ-
mental change. We witness ®ery discussions of the causes of these changes and their
correlations with the problems of life on Earth. The fact becomes increasingly
apparent that continuing to experiment with the natural environment is dangerous
and has unpredictable consequences, and that the only alternative to these experi-
ments is to substitute them by modeling using accumulated knowledge.
As experience shows, development of a means to monitor global change with the
present development of science on global processes is impossible using any of the
models currently available to simulate the functioning of the nature±society system.
No doubt, methods developed to model evolutionary technology raise hopes of
creating a global model which, based on accumulated knowledge, will make it
possible to obtain reliable enough long-term predictions of global change and to
substantiate thereby conditions for the sustainable development of the environment.
Obviously, success in this direction depends on the complex use of modeling
technologies and environmental observations. So far, global models lack units to
parameterize some processes in the nature±society system to formulate realistic
scenarios. The construction of the latter is the result of expert knowledge and to a
degree the imagination of an investigator. This problem was discussed in detail in
Alcano et al. (2001), Gyalistras (2002), and in a special IPCC report (IPCC, 2001). To
some extent, the Kyoto Protocol can serve as a scenario. Some countries of the EEC,
who signed this protocol, agreed to reduce GHG emissions between 2008 and 2012 by
12.5%, and it is assumed that CO2 emissions will decrease by 2010 by 20% compared
with the year 1990. In each country diverse scenarios of this type bring with them a
high level of global uncertainty, the solution of which is impossible without certain
generalizations. Therefore, we shall now dwell for a while on some generalizing
scenarios.
2.3.1 Fishery scenario

The use of World Ocean products in the 20th century was characterized by an
increase in the trade of ®sh and other animals at higher trophic levels with trade
intensity doubling every 10±15 years. The maximum catch in 1970 reached a level of
61 Mt. The annual per capita consumption of sea products varied within 7.2 kg to
11.8 kg. Numerous forecasts of the possible per capita use of World Ocean products
give about 12 kg/yr. Therefore, let us assume a hypothetical dependence of the
intensive ®shing of nekton in each ith region:

G0i G0i G1i t t0 =tGi t0 ; t0 t tGi ,
Gti 2:2
G1i ; t > tGi ;
where G0i is ®shing intensity at a moment t0 (e.g., in 1970 G0i 0.0286; in 1999
G0i 0.0312); and G1i is the maximum possible trade intensity reached at moment
tGi t0 . The Gti coecient characterizes the ®shing trade in the ith region and is
considered in the demographic unit of the global model.
The contribution of ®shing to the diet of Homo sapiens is determined by the ratio
of the volume of products taken from the World Ocean to agricultural products.
Numerous estimates of this contribution and prediction for the future dier widely,
which is explained by the diculties in calculating marine ecosystem productivity.
In this connection we agree with Garcia and Grainger (2005) who state:
``Longer-term climate change will aect the ocean environment and its capacity to
sustain ®shery stocks and is likely to exacerbate the stresses on marine ®sh stocks,
from ®shing and other marine or land-based activities. The extent to which it will
aect ®sheries, in the dierent regions and species, is however not yet clear.
Productivity might increase or decrease signi®cantly. Ecosystem boundaries
may be displaced and species composition may change remarkably (e.g.,
Blanchard and Boucher, 2002). In polluted areas, oxygen depletion will be
aggravated, particularly if ¯ooding facilitates the ¯ow of pollutants to the sea.
Fisheries infrastructures may have to be displaced, at high cost. Fisheries lacking
mobility (e.g., small-scale ®sheries) might suer the most. Freshwater ¯ows will be
modi®ed. New diseases may be introduced. Assuming such changes will occur
more slowly than the already experienced natural variations, there should be little
additional impact on supply/demand and prices. However, the existence of
¯exible management systems and access agreements between neighbouring
countries would facilitate the adaptation to change (Everett et al., 1995). More
practically, the eventual impact cannot yet be accounted for but must be regarded
as a major source of `surprise'.''
By the year 2020, the price of ®sh is expected to increase by 6%±15%. This will be
caused by achieving (probably exceeding) the maximum acceptable and calculated
rates of withdrawal of marine products, allowing for variability of the productive
potential of marine ecosystems. On the whole, whereas in the 20th century there was
an increase of the volume of ®sh caught, in the 21st century a stabilization of the
global ®sh catch is beginning to show at the level (75±85) 10 6 t yr 1 (Pauly et al.,
2005; Gelchu and Pauly, 2007). Of course, to calculate an acceptable load on marine
ecosystems, it is necessary to use Formula (2.2) to carry out simulation experiments
with a global model of GMNSS type.
2.3.2 Scenario of the distribution of soil±plant formation areas

The intensity of food production on land depends on the area covered with crops and
on their productivity. Clearly, within a global model, when considering details of all
the processes and elements, it is impossible to predict every conceivable direction for
agricultural development. Therefore, all the processes involved in increasing produc-
tivity have been generalized to re¯ect general trends. Let us introduce for agricultural
formation the identi®er k and consider that in any region some of the territory can be
occupied by cultivated land:
(
k0i k i k0i t t0 =tki t0 ; t0 t tki ;
ki
k i ; t > tki ;
( 2:3
1 Hk i 1t t0 =tki t0 ; t0 t tki ;
Hki
Hk i ; t > tki ;
where ki i is the area of land cultivated in the ith region with area i ; Hki is the
indicator of changes in agricultural productivity Rki for latitude ' and longitude
with respect to the time moment t0 HkiS Rki '; ; t=Rki '; ; t0 ; and tki is the
season in the ith region when cultivated land is constant.
In much the same way as Scenario (2.3), it is necessary to write similar relation-
ships for all known types of plant formations and, using a global model, to evaluate
the consequences of substitution of one type of vegetation cover for another (see
Section 3.6.2 for details). But, of course, most important for studies is the process of
substitution of forests for agricultural lands. At the present time, of the
148,000,000 km 2 (57 million mi 2 ) of land approximately 31,000,000 km 2 (12 million
mi 2 ) are arable, and they expand at a rate of 100,000 km 2 (38,610 mi 2 ) per year. A
major element of arable land loss is deforestation which continues to the present day,
primarily in tropical countries through commercial over-exploitation of tropical
forest.
2.3.3 Investment scenario

Let us suppose that in the ith region the area ki under crops from moment t0 changes
following a linear law from k0i to k i in the time interval to tki . The time for reaching
the level k i depends on the amount of investment (coecient qVi ) in agriculture with
the inverse proportion coecient tk i and on other factors aecting the time constant
tki : tki t0 tki tk i =qVi Vi . Possible changes in agricultural productivity Hki are
also approximated by a linear law where the value Hk i shows how many times
productivity in the ith region can change from t0 to tki . The reserves for increasing
Hki are rather large. Even highly productive plants such as sugarcane, during photo-
synthesis, consume annually only about 2% of the solar energy reaching the Earth
surface, crops 1%, and other plants even less. Plant physiology and agro-technology
have broad possibilities for multiple increase of agricultural productivity and,
hence, the food available for Homo sapiens. Assume that to reach the level Hk i ,
the population of the ith region has the time tki t0 :
tki t0 tki t ki qVi Vi ;
where the constituent tki is independent of agricultural investments; t ki characterizes
the eciency of these investments; and Vi is the size of funds for the ith region.
According to the food spectrum for Homo sapiens a certain role is played here by
forest ecosystems, the general trend in changes of their areas being characterized by a
negative derivative. On a global scale, forest resources are constantly depleting, so

that on the border of the 20th and 21st centuries the total area of forests constitutes
L 4;184 Mha, with a 31% density (about 28.3% of land area).
Two principal processes are observed in forestry: deforestation and aorestation.
Let us describe the totality of these processes using the scenario of forest area change:

L0i L i L0i t t0 =tLi t0 ; t0 t tLi ;
Li
L i ; t > tLi
This dependence foresees that the area under forests in the ith region up to moment
tLi varies linearly from L0i to L i and then remains constant. The values of the input
parameters constitute the freedom of choice in simulation experiments.
To complete the formulation of the global scenario describing the level of food
provision for Homo sapiens, consider the law of changing stock-breeding product-
ivity. Suppose that with the constant constituent kFSi , it increases in proportion with
agricultural investments qVi with the coecient kF i and has the varying-in-time
constituent with an exponential law of change:
kFi kF3i kF i qVi kF1i kF3i 1 expf kF2i t t0 g:
The direction of human activity is determined by the intensity of pollution, time

the pollution lasted (waste utilization), cost of environmental cleaning, amount of
investment in the renewal of resources and in the prevention of environmental
pollution, investment in industry and agriculture, rate of natural resource expendi-
ture, and search for new sources, etc. The hypothetical trends of these processes
should be set in order to realize the predictions using the global model.
Let the intensity of pollution vary between kZ0i at time moment t0 and kZ1i at
moment tZ i . Similarly vary the time of waste utilization TZi and the cost of cleaning
pollution GZVi , respectively, between the values TZ0i TZi t0 , TZ1i TZi tZi , and
G2ZVi GZVi t0 , G1ZVi GZVi tZVi . Since the estimates of these indicators can vary
for many reasons and at dierent times, the simplest scenario for the experiment will
be the following functional presentations:
(
kZ0i kZ1i kZ0i t t0 =tZ i t0 ; t0 t tZ i ;
kZi
kZ1i ; t > tZ i ;
(
TZ0i TZ1i TZ0i t t0 =tZi t0 ; t0 t tZi ;
TZi
TZ1i ; t > tZi ;
(
G2ZVi G2ZVi G1ZVi t t0 =tZGi t0 ; t0 t tZGi ;
GZVi
G1ZVi ; t > tZGi .
Since it is dicult to specify the spheres of human activity, the spectrum of

investments is con®ned here to the functions UZG , qv , and UMG . The strategy of
investment distribution for each region is determined by two-step functions of time:

(
UMG1i ; t0 t tMGi ;
UMGi
UMG2i ; t > tGMi ;
(
UZG1i ; t0 t tZVi ;
UZGi
UZG2i ; t > tZVi ,
where tMGi and tZVi are the moments of economic policy change in the ith region in
the ®eld of investments in the renewal of natural resources and prevention of pollu-
tion, respectively. Here the term ``renewal of resources'' denotes processes favoring
an increase of M. In particular, this is a change of mineral resources for others, with
their signi®cance recalculated for the levels of signi®cance of the previous ones.
Agricultural investment is one of the most important components of investment.
To get high productivity from cultivated crops, it is necessary to completely satisfy
their needs for water and minerals. This means that high yields require great amounts
of energy. The same is true of protein food production, where the eciency of
transformation of vegetable food energy into the energy of meat and fat synthesized
in animals is about 10% or, in other words, 10 calories of energy are spent on the
production of 1 Calorie of protein. This energy production requires some share of the
investment and consumption of the fossil fuel products of photosynthesis. Hence, in
this case investment and energy expenditure are mutually dependent. The global
model unit that describes agricultural investment is constructed by setting the depen-
dences of agricultural productivity on energy expenditures. The investment param-
eter of the control UBGi is described by the two-step function:

UBG1i ; t0 t tBGi ;
UBGi
UBG2i ; t > tBGi ,
where tBGi is the moment of change of the investment policy in agriculture in the ith
region. The TBi parameter characterizing the time of assimilation of agricultural
investments in the ith region can also change at moment tBi :

TB1i ; t0 t tBi ;
TBi
TB2i ; t > tBi ;
At present the need of humankind for energy is 90% satis®ed due to the burning
of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) and only 10% satis®ed by hydro- and electric power
stations. In future these relationships should change drastically as a result of new
technologies of energy production and, in particular, increasing the eciency of solar
energy. The processes of accumulation and transformation of solar energy, and
improving the technology of using World Ocean energy (waves, tides, ebbs, currents,
etc.), will all play an important role. There will come a time when the human race will
use new energy sources. Of course, this moment will be dierent for various regions.
In the global model this is re¯ected by substitution of the initial value of the com-
ponent Mi for a new M0GMi value. The tGMi parameter is the function of the multiplier
mGi determined by the ratio of natural resource supplies to their annual expenditure
at a given moment. This can be regulated in each region by dierent means by taking
the many aspects of human activity into account. Without dwelling on the details,
take the following scenario of a possible change of multiplier mGi :

mG0i mG0i mG1i t t0 =tMi t0 ; t0 t tMi ;
mGi t
mG1i ; t > tMi .
Within the time interval t0 ; tMGi in each region the cost GMGi of natural resource
renewal can vary linearly from the value GMG0i to the value GMG1i :

GMG0i GMG0i GMG1i t t0 =tMGi t0 ; t0 t tMGi ;
GMGi t
GMG1i ; t > tMGi .
The basic capital Vi (i 1; . . . ; m) invested in the development of industry,
science, agriculture, construction, and other spheres of human activity eventually
runs out and its eciency decreases. To parameterize the processes that take place, let
us introduce the term `àging time'' TVG (40 years). Assessment of this parameter is
a characteristic of each region. As before, assume that TVG varies linearly from the
value TVG0i to the value TVG1i within the time interval t 2 t0 ; tVi and then remains
constant:

TVG0i TVG0i TVG1i t t0 =tVi t0 ; t0 t tVi ;
TVGi t
TVG1i ; t > tVi .
2.3.4 Development scenarios

Moiseev (1990) called the 20th century ``the age of warning'', an `àge of radical
changes'' in normal ideas about the environment. Indeed, the beginning of the 21st
century has brought an actual problem of an alternative choice of the strategy of
further NSS development. Moiseev (1990) wrote:
`Òur world society is at the parting of the ways. Of a multitude of ways open to us
one should choose only one way! And without a new understanding, without a
new comprehension of the whole process of development, its laws and trends we
won't be able to make a needed choice.''
This verdict is con®rmed by practically all experts, who dier only in that their
alternatives of global ecodynamics are sometimes controversial. Some problems
naturally crop up here regarding the rational organization of society and creation
of a technology that makes compromises between collective decisions about the
interaction with nature.
Scenarios of human development are the basic subject of discussions at both
global international and regional national levels (Yakovets, 1997; Troyan and
Dementiev, 2005). Constructing global scenarios is based on the theory of sustain-
able development, the elements of which are rather dicult to create, and it is
accompanied by ®ery discussions between experts (Kondratyev, 2000b, 2004b; Moi-

seev, 1993, 2001). The main components of development scenarios are economic and
social in character with the ®rst prevailing. In dierent regions their ratio depends on
the prevailing source of economic development. In rich countries social components
prevail. Developing countries, when working out development scenarios, have to
consider a broader spectrum of alternatives including poverty reduction, higher
education, increased agricultural productivity, development of industry, provision
of a stable demography, etc. Both developed and developing countries run into many
contradictory trends connected, for instance, with the direct dependence of people's
living standards of people on areas of cultivated lands, with the resultant loss of
natural habitats when developing tourism and agriculture. Overcoming these contra-
dictions requires solution of many problems in planning the use of land and water
resources, and development of urban infrastructure and the road network.
An important obstacle in working out an agreed future scenario for human
development is the many contradictions between governments, ethnic groups, re-
ligions, and moral codes, overcoming which in the near future will require much
eort by politicians, economists, sociologists, and religious ®gures to ®nd a compro-
mise not only between people but also with nature. Only by understanding the
fundamental laws of nature, in accordance with which every living being and nature
as a whole exist, will people be able to take their place in the environment and ®nd the
best way to make it possible to preserve life on Earth.
Many experts, despite the many pessimistic development scenarios, presume that
humankind will ®nd the way to sustainable development.
Among the most promising developments documented in numerous publications
are the following (Renner, 2002):
. the continued rapid expansion of wind and solar-generated electricity;

. the steady decline in the amount of oil spilled accidentally;
. the outgoing reduction in production of ozone-destroying chemicals;
. the decreasing metal intensity of the world economy;
. the growing reliance on transboundary parks as tools for biodiversity conserva-
tion and peace and con®dence-building;
. the expansion of commercial forest areas that have been certi®ed as well
managed; and
. reductions in the number of active armed con¯icts.
2.3.5 Climate scenarios

A contradictory direction in global ecodynamics is the prediction of climate change
depending on the strategy adopted for NSS development. Existing climate models do
not give a direct result, and so various scenarios have been suggested based on
analysis of the trends of climate change in the past and predictions of GHG
concentrations (SRES, 2000). One such attempt is the IPCC report (IPCC, 2007)
prepared by experts from more than 100 countries. Like previous similar reports
(IPCC, 2001, 2005), the basic changes aecting the absorption, scattering, and
emission of radiation in the atmosphere and on the Earth surface are changes in
atmospheric GHG and aerosol concentrations, solar radiation, and surface proper-
ties. These changes lead to changes in the radiation balance resulting in either
warming or cooling. It was emphasized that the analysis of ice cores reveals a
considerable increase in the present atmospheric concentration of the main green-
house gas, carbon dioxide, for the last 650,000 years. In 2005, CO2 concentration
reached 370 ppm (against 280 ppm in the pre-industrial period), with its increase
between 1995 and 2005 constituting 19 ppm per year. Present global concentrations
of CH4 and nitrous oxide have also exceeded the pre-industrial values for many tens
of thousands of years. An increase in concentration of all three basic GHGs from the
mid-18th century is mainly the result of human activity: carbon fuel burning and
development of agriculture (carbon dioxide) as well as changes in land use (methane
and nitrous oxide).
The IPCC report (IPCC, 2007) contains three basic gradations of anthropogenic
causes of future climate change: ``rigid'', ``moderate'', and ``mild'' scenarios of
anthropogenic emissions of GHGs and aerosols. As a result, the following
conclusions have been drawn:
. In the period 2008±2030 global warming will take place at a rate of 0.2 C per
decade. According to model calculations, even with ®xed concentrations at the
level of the year 2000, warming would go on at the expense of GHGs accumu-
lated in the atmosphere at a rate of 0.1 C per decade.
. Preservation of GHG emissions at the present level, to say nothing of increasing
emissions, will cause with a high probability further warming and numerous
accompanying changes in the global climate system during the 21st century,
which will exceed changes observed in the 20th century. With respect to the last
20 years of the 20th century, depending on scenario, by the end of the 21st
century global warming will constitute from 1.8 C (a ``very mild'' scenario of
anthropogenic impact B1 with probable limits from 1.1 C to 2.9 C) to 4.6 C (a
``very rigid'' scenario A1EI with probable limits from 2.4 C to 6.4 C), and sea
level rise will average 0.19 m±0.58 m.
. A decrease in CO2 assimilation by the ocean and land due to climate warming for
Scenario A2 will lead to an additional increase in global warming by 1 C by the
year 2100.
. Climate extremes will intensify (heat waves, heavy showers, etc.); the intensity of
tropical cyclones (typhoons) will increase due to further SST rise at low latitudes;
meridional circulation in the North Atlantic will decrease, on average, by 25%;
extra-tropical cyclones will shift toward the poles.
. World Ocean ice cover is expected to decrease. According to some scenarios, by
the end of the 21st century, the ice in the Arctic Ocean may well completely melt
in late summer.
The diversity of climatic scenarios depends on the many versions of NSS devel-
opment that take all manner of human activity into account. Table 2.7 lists the basic
elements of such scenarios.
Table 2.7. Basic plotlines of scenarios of climate change in the 21st century. From IPCC (2001,
2007).
Scenario Characteristic
category
A1 A very rapid economic growth with indicators reaching maximum values in

the mid-21st century with subsequent decrease and rapid introduction of new
and more ecient technologies. The fundamental themes are gradual
approach of dierent regions, reinforcement of the potential and energization
of cultural and social relations with a considerable decrease of regional
dierences in per capita income. A1 is divided into three groups giving a
description of alternative versions of the technological change in the energy
system. Three A1 groups dier in their central technological element. A
considerable share of the kinds of fossil fuel (A1F1), non-fossil sources of
energy (A1T), or an equilibrium between all sources (A1B) (where the
equilibrium is determined as slight dependence on one concrete source of
energy, proceeding from the fact that similar rates of an increase in
eciency are used with respect to all technologies of energy supply and ®nal
use).
A2 A very heterogeneous world: self-provision and preservation of local

originality. Indicators of birth rate in dierent regions approach each other
very slowly, and as a result, the population size is constantly growing.
Economic development has mainly a regional purpose, and per capita
economic growth and technological changes are more fragmentary and slow
compared with other plotlines.
B1 The plotline and scenario family B1 contain a description of the world

moving in one direction with the same population size, which reaches a
maximum in the mid-21st century and then decreases as in plotline A1;
however, with rapid changes in the economic structures of service and
information economy, with decreasing material intensity, and introduction of
pure and resource-saving technologies. The emphasis is placed on global
solution of the problem of economic, social, and ecological stability
including greater justice but without additionary initiatives connected with
climate.
B2 The plotline and scenario family B2 contain a description of the world in

which the emphasis is placed on local solutions to the problem of economic,
social, and ecological stability. It is a world with constantly increasing global
population size at rates below A2, intermediate levels of economic
development, and not so rapid and more diverse technological changes
compared with plotlines A1 and B1. Though this scenario is also aimed at
protection of the environment and social justice, the emphasis here is placed
on local and regional levels.
Sec. 2.4] 2.4 Balance between economic growth and social development 119
2.4 BALANCE BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
As repeatedly mentioned by many experts, reaching a stable balance between the

economic and social processes in any country and in the world as a whole is a
complicated problem, the solution of which will call for a complex approach to study
the dynamics of the NSS. The authors of the collection of papers edited by Spoor
(2004) tried to ®nd a solution to this problem. Analyzing the internal mechanisms of
the interaction between present global processes such as globalization, poverty, and
con¯ict, the authors posed and tried to answer the following questions:
(1) Is ``development'' passeÂ?

(2) Is it merely a byproduct or a ``trickle down'' eect of economic growth, spurred
by globalization?
(3) Will poverty simply diminish with increased global markets?
These and other questions inevitably come before governments when they are
determining how their countries should develop, at least for the foreseeable future. In
this connection, Spoor (2004) considered various aspects and mechanisms to solve the
problems caused by globalization, emphasizing three themes:
(i) globalization, inequality, and poverty;

(ii) governance, civil society, and poverty; and
(iii) resource degradation, institutions, and con¯ict.
One of the basic principles of economic growth is social capital. According to

Vanin (2002), social capital is ``the norms and social relations embedded in the social
structure of a group that enable people to coordinate actions to achieve desired
goals.'' Essentially, this is a hierarchy of socio-economic relationships, between
dierent groups of people. The stability of these relationships depends on many
factors, including social norms, the social structure, the level of development of civil
obligations, social homogeneity, social justice, etc. Formalization of these relation-
ships is reduced to construction of a game-theoretic model like that developed in
Kondratyev et al. (2002b).
Economic growth and social development cannot be considered separately from
the general global problem of the survival of humankind. In other words, it is
necessary to consider the problem of co-evolution of two systems: human society
(H) and nature (N). The systems H and N are determined by their structures (number
of elements and relations among them) and behavior (responses to impacts). The
internal behavior of such a system is aimed at maintaining its uninterrupted function-
ing. The external behavior of the system is aimed at achieving a certain outside goal.
The temporal stability of a complex system is a necessary property without which all
its other properties become meaningless. It is connected with the structural stability
of the material composition and energy balance of the complex system as well as with
the regularity of its responses to the same external stimuli.
A breach in stability of a system may result from internal causes (the aging of
its elements) or external causes associated with the unfavorable in¯uence of the
environment (an ill-intentioned enemy, in particular). The survivability of biological
systems is determined by environmental conditions where human interference with
nature is an important factor. In connection with this and the prospects of con-
structing arti®cial biological systems, optimization problems also arise; an increase of
productivity of a biological system being the main criterion of optimality.
At the global scale the problem of survivability of the interacting systems is
complicated by the hierarchy of interaction levels. For a complete explanation of
H and N systems their openness has to be taken into account. Let us consider the
interaction of two open complex systems H and N, de®ned by their goals HG and NG ,
structures HS and NS , and behavior HB and NB , respectively. It is suggested that the
functioning of such systems should be described by the equations of (V; W)-
exchange. Namely, the interaction of an open system with the environment (or other
system) is represented as a process whereby the system exchanges a certain quantity V
of resources spent in exchange for a certain quantity W of resources consumed. The
aim of the system is the most advantageous (V; W)-exchange (i.e., it tries to get
maximum W in exchange for minimum V). The V is a complex function of the
structure and behavior of both systems:
V VW; HS ; NS ; HG ; NG VW; H; N: 2:4
As a result of their interaction, systems H and N get the following (V; W)-
exchanges:
VH;max VH;max WH ; H ; N max min VH WH ; H; N

fHB ;HS g fNB ;NS g
2:5
VN;max VN;max WN ; H ; N max min VN WN ; H; N;
fNB ;NS g fHB ;HS g
where H and N are the optimal systems H and N, respectively.

From (2.4) and (2.5) we can see that the value of (V; W)-exchange depends on the
goal of the system and may vary within certain limits: V1;min VH V1;max ,
V2;min VN V2;max , where Vi;min (i 1:2) corresponds to the case when both
systems are most aggressive, and Vi;max (i 1; 2) to the case when they are most
cautious. In a word, there is some spectrum of the interactions between H and N.
For a formal description of these interactions we shall divide all the elements of
both systems into three classes: the working, protective (defensive) and active
elements, the latter designed to act on the environment. For short, we shall refer
to the working elements of systems H and N as a and b-elements, to the protective
elements as Ra and Rb -elements, and to the active elements as Ca and Cb -elements,
respectively.
Let us assume that, before any interaction, the systems H and N have
certain limited energy resources (i.e., vital ``substrates'') Va and Vb , in which
Sec. 2.4] 2.4 Balance between economic growth and social development 121
Va fVaj ; j 1; . . . ; ma g, Vb fVbi ; i 1; . . . ; mb g. These substrates generate

working elements in such a way that substrate Vaj (Vbi ) can generate Hj (Ni ) ab-
elements of the jith type of values aj bi .
The protective and active elements of each system are generated by the working
elements. First, the protective E aRm E bRm and active E aCm E bCm substrates are created
which, in their turn, generate R and C-elements of the mth type. These processes are
described by the following dependences:
X
ma
E aRm E aRm Va ; H1 ; . . . ; Hma w amj f ajR Vaj ; Hj ;
j1
X
mb
E bRm E bRm Vb ; N1 ; . . . ; Nmb w bmj f bjR Vbj ; Nj ;
j1
X
ma
E aCm E aCm Va ; H1 ; . . . ; Hma w 0a a
mj f jC Vaj ; Hj ;
j1
X
mb
E bCm E bCm Vb ; N1 ; . . . ; Nmb w bmj f bjC Vbj ; Nj ;
j1
ab 0ab
where w mj , w mj , and f ab are given present weights and functions, respectively.
We shall assume that, as a result of such hierarchical synthesis, the elements in
systems H and N have at the beginning of the interaction (t 0):
(1) mj and nj working elements of jth type with values aj and bj , respectively, where
X
ma X
mb
aj Hj Ma 0; bj Nj Mb 0; 2:6
j1 j1
(2) ra and rb types of protective elements, the mth type having m and m elements,
and:
X
ra X
rb
m MRa 0; m MRb 0; 2:7
m1 m1
(3) sa and sb types of active elements, the mth type having am and bm elements and:
X
sa X
sb
am Da 0; bm Db 0; 2:8
m1 m1
respectively.
In the discrete case, the change of the average number of system elements that
have survived until moment ti1 will be described by the following relations:
Hs ti1 maxf0; Hs ti nhs ti p nhs ti g; s 1; . . . ; mh ; 2:9
j ti1 maxf0; j ti nRj ti p nRj ti g; j 1; . . . ; rh ; 2:10
hm ti1 maxf0; hm ti nCm ti p nCm ti g; m 1; . . . ; sh ; 2:11
Nl ti1 maxf0; Nl ti hnl ti p hnl ti g; l 1; . . . ; mn ; 2:12
s ti1 maxf0; s ti hRs ti p hRs ti g; s 1; . . . ; rn ; 2:13
nm ti1 maxf0; nm ti hCm ti p hCm ti g; m 1; . . . ; sh ; 2:14

ab
where the !i t values characterize the external behavior of both these systems:
H i a a
e fk bl k; k Rs kg; N i b b
e fk as k; k Rj kg;
ab
and p !i t are the respective probabilities of death of the elements as a result of their
interaction. The following limiting conditions should be taken into account here:
( )
X T X
mb X
rb X
sb
b b a a
Cs ti p Cs ti bj ti Rj ti Cj ti hl 0;
a
2:15
i0 j1 j1 j1
( )
X
T X
ma X
ra X
sa
aCs ti p aCs ti baj ti bRj ti bCj ti nl 0: 2:16
i0 j1 j1 j1
The stochastic solution of Equations (2.4)±(2.16) is very dicult. There are many
real situations when the realization of an H or N system is impossible. Some tasks
and algorithms were described by Krapivin and Klimov (1995, 1997).
2.5 SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
Under the in¯uence of climate change, the dierences between poor and rich
countries will deepen, especially in the provision of elementary living conditions.
Unfortunately, all available data on the dynamics of these dierences con®rm this
trend. In many global regions temperature increase will inevitably lead to a decrease
in soil fertility and water de®cit. On the whole, we should expect that developing
countries, as a result of predicted climate change, will experience diculty in the
provision of the necessary systems for life, which even the most socially irresponsible
governments would not dare to resist. Pachauri (2004) outlined the pessimistic
prospect for developing countries as a result of climate change and the lack of
economic possibilities to reduce their vulnerability both in the sphere of foodstus
and protection of their people from natural disasters. This disproportion between
Sec. 2.5] 2.5 Social responsibility and economic potential 123
developed and developing nations is also con®rmed by the fact that during the last 50
years most damage in northern developed countries was fully insured and yet,
compared with the southern developing countries, there was a minimum of people
who suered as a result of weather phenomena.
A basic notion of social responsibility is corporative social responsibility.
. It is the achievement of commercial progress that values ethical principles and

respects people, communities, and the environment.
. It is understood as the promotion of practices by responsible businesses that are
useful both for business itself and society and promote social, economic, and
ecologically sustainable development through maximizing the positive impacts of
business on society and minimizing the negative ones.
. It consists in obliging businesses to contribute to sustainable development, labor
relations with workers, their families, the local community, and society as a
whole, in order to improve the quality of life.
. It is the voluntary contribution of business to the development of society in the
social, economic, and ecological spheres that are connected directly with the
basic activity of the company and exceed the minimum determined by law.
Social responsibility under the present conditions of globalization re¯ects the

whole complex of relations within the framework of a market economy. The most
important component of social responsibility is the essence of business and its
contribution to economy. But, business cannot exist isolated from society. It depends
on a multitude of factors, important among which are human, organizational, and
®nancial resources. Eventually, recognition of the economic potential of a country as
a main element of the NSS will be the norm.
The economic potential of a country is determined by its available resources,
which, used eciently, make it possible to produce the maximum gross domestic
product (GDP). The components of the economic potential of a country include the
following:
. Nature resource potential, which characterizes the natural resources of the

country either currently used in the economic cycle or yet to be mastered with
available technologies and socio-economic relations.
. The production potential formed by material resources and manpower. These are
the means of production (buildings, constructions, and equipment), technologies,
laborers, engineers, and technicians.
. Labor potential or labor resources of the country, the volume and quality of
which are determined by the size of the active able-bodied population, as well as
their educational and professional level.
. The scienti®c and technical potential of the country in the ®eld of scienti®c
research and design, which includes achievements in fundamental and applied
sciences, discoveries, and inventions, new technologies, as well as highly-quali®ed
scienti®c, technical, and design personnel. The scienti®c and technical potential
of a country can be considered the main lever of present economy development.
. Export potential, determined by the ability of the national economy to produce

goods competitively on the world market and to export them in sucient
volumes at world prices.
Among the constituents that make up the social responsibility of the country are
such important elements as the responsibility of the government, business, and
citizens themselves for social well-being, determined by the growth of prosperity,
level of education, and health of the nation. This means that, along with the economic
potential, we should consider human capital. Realization of the social policy and
development of the labor market in this context should be considered not as help for
the poor and weakly protected layers of the populationÐbut as actions to make up
and increase the quality of human capital. Capital invested in the development of the
social infrastructure should be considered as investment to the development of
human resources of the country. Therefore, we should assess the eciency of and
grounds for this investment in the same way as any other investment is assessed.
Government, business, and citizens are responsible for the realization of social policy.
Therefore, when the social responsibility of business is questioned, it is important to
understand that both the government and employees are responsible to business and
businessmen. A socially responsible business also requires a socially responsible
society and country.
2.6 BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES AND QUALITY OF LIFE
Biogeochemical cycles, or the matter and energy exchange between various com-
ponents of the biosphere, are cyclic in character and determined by the vital activity
of organisms. In contrast to micro-organisms, birds, and animals, people try, whether
realizing it or intuitively, to direct all processes taking place in nature toward
improving conditions for their own lives. Here problems appear which are at the
center of attention of practically all sciences.
The idea of biogeochemical cyclic recurrence was founded in the works of
Vernadsky (1944) and further developed in biosphere science and biochemistry
(Dunn, 2007; Schlesinger, 2005). The structure of the natural-science pattern of
the world in recent decades drastically changed as a result of studies by Kondratyev
(1986, 2004a, b) and Moiseev (1979, 1988, 1990). In these works emphasis was placed
on the principal signi®cance of the connections between living and inert substances
as a fundamental basis for understanding the dynamics of biogeochemical cycles.
Vernadsky (1977) wrote:
``Between inert and living substances there exist, however, a constant bond which
can be expressed as a continuous biogenic ¯ow of atoms from a living substance to
inert substance of the biosphere, and back. This biogenic ¯ow of atoms is caused
by a living substance. It is expressed through ceaseless respiration, nutrition,
reproduction, etc.''
Sec. 2.6] 2.6 Biogeochemical cycles and quality of life 125
It should be added that the main feature of biogeochemical cycles is that some of the
time they are open. Substances often leave the biospheric cycle for a given duration
and can return and close the cycle after a much longer time period.
Biospheric cycles are known to last from dozens and hundreds to several thou-
sands of years, and the geological cycle lasts for millions of years. During the history
of the biosphere (3.5±3.8 billion years), as a result of the openness (95%±98%) of
biogeochemical cycles, the oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere was formed as
were the deposits of coals, oil shale, limestone, phosphorites, bauxites, and other
minerals in the Earth's crust.
Solar energy and the activity of living substances are the driving force of
biogeochemical cycles. The energy accumulated in the process of photosynthesis is
globally re-distributed depending on the trend of biogeochemical cycles, which are
now governed by anthropogenic processes. As a result, regions of the biosphere
appear with characteristic features of biogeochemical cycles expressed either as a
shortage or an excess of certain chemical elements. John F. Kennedy, President of the
U.S.A., in his address to Congress on February 23, 1961 said that society entirely
depends on water, land, forests, and minerals, and the health, security, economy, and
well-being of people depend on how society uses these resources. Indeed, resources
that accumulate due to solar heat and light are governed by biogeochemical
processes, and therefore their renewal and availability for use depend on natural
and anthropogenic factors, the role and ratio of which in dierent regions are
dierent. In contrast to mineral resources whose renewal interval is millions of years,
resources of solar origin can be renewed in time intervals that are rapid enough for
the maintenance of life of humans and animals. However, a problem consists in
coordinating the rhythms of renewal and consumption of these resources. The
growing demand for food, for instance, requires increased harvests, and hence,
increased volumes of mineral resources are needed. The observed dynamics of food
consumption is characterized by values: 2,552 kcal per capita per day in 1979/1981,
2,803 kcal per capita per day in 1997/1999, and 2,928 kcal per capita per day in 2006/
2007. Continuation of this trend in future will require food production of 2,940 kcal
per capita per day. A number of questions arise, for instance:
(1) What is the possible maximum level of food production?

(2) What are the limits to increasing agricultural productivity?
(3) What is the limit to the land resources that can be used?
An obvious hindrance to development of a civilized attitude toward nature is

a shortage of any resource (e.g., water and food). As industry, agriculture, and
urbanization develop, interference with hydrological cycles grows due to the re-
distribution of water ¯ows. For instance, 8% of rains in the U.S.A., giving up to
0.42 10 15 L of water, are taken for industry, irrigation, and urban water supply.
Some water returns after a delay to the natural cycle, but most water in land
reclamation systems is spent on evaporation and transpiration and, hence, enters a
dierent cycle. Dam construction and the creation of water reservoirs also violate the
hydrological cycle by introducing once again the eect of delay. All these problems
become more complicated when the contamination of water systems is also taken into
account. Polluted water cannot be used repeatedly, which means that it is not usually
discharged into the same, initial reservoir. In this connection, Skinner (1979) justly
noted that people are mistaken when they regard any natural resource, renewable or
non-renewable, as if it can be used separately from all other resources. This means
that all biogeochemical cycles should be studied as a complex (i.e., within a single
system that analyzes natural and anthropogenic processes together).
The formation of the biomass of cultivated plants and humus in the soil layer has
to do with the biogeochemical cyclicity of carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, natrium,
phosphorus, sulfur, calcium, magnesium, potassium, nitrogen, and other biogenic
elements. Farmers, when harvesting, violate the biogeochemical cycle over their
farmland. To replace chemical elements removed during the harvest, it is necessary
to introduce fertilizers to the soil. At this stage of the interaction between nature and
humans there needs to be a means of optimizing the biogeochemical cycle. Violations
of the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus, and heavy metals (lead, zinc,
cadmium, mercury, etc.) can lead to catastrophic consequences for human health.
Therefore, renewal and maintenance of a balanced cyclicity of the most important
biogenic elements, both over a given territory and in the biosphere as a whole, is a
®rst-priority problem facing biosphere scientists.
The need to improve the quality of life in practically all global regions in the 20th
and early 21st centuries has forced humankind to deliberately increase the rate of
agricultural production of nitrogen-rich fertilizers. It is this cycle of nitrogen that
determines to a great extent the purpose of many social and demographic processes.
At the same time, the processes involved in soil mechanics and plant cultivation
strongly aect the nitrogen cycle in nature. Considering the U.N.-predicted increase
in global population size up to 9 billion by the year 2050, the problem of nitrogen
cycle control is becoming urgent, especially if on a global scale an international
mechanism for balanced application of fertilizers is not found. The productivity of
the global agricultural system is growing annually by 1.4%±2.3%, struggling to
keep up with the rate of growth in population size. Therefore, current studies of
biogeochemical cycles with the remit of raising the level of living standards should
prioritize the search for this balance (Figure 2.1). In this connection, Williams (2005)
believes that progress can be achieved as long as a complex approach is usedÐbut
not when individual biogeochemical cycles are considered in isolation. It is the
complex approach that will make it possible to reveal the anomalous responses of
biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenic interferences and to calculate vitally
important biospheric parameters. The cycles of phosphorus and carbon are closely
related to the cycle of nitrogen as C : N : P 106 : 16 : 1, due to evolution of the
geosphere± biosphere system (GBS). As Zavarzin (2003) noted, in the GBS, along
with determining direct bonds from the geosphere to biota, transforming feedbacks
play an important role. In this evolution, micro-organisms are of principal
importance. Apparently, they act as a buer for the GBS, which governs the
conditions that regulate biogeochemical cycles. At the same time, the biota itself
directly governs biogeochemical cycles by assimilating biogenic salts from soils,
respiration, and evapotranspiration. So, CO2 assimilation according to the reaction
Sec. 2.6] 2.6 Biogeochemical cycles and quality of life 127
Figure 2.1. Conceptual scheme showing how the nature±society system functions.
CO2 H2 O [CH2 O] O2 follows in molar ratio the rule CO2 : Corg : O2 1 : 1 : 1.

The rate of atmospheric CO2 sink under present biospheic conditions is 145 kgC
per 1kg of chlorophyll. This level of sink is eventually the parameter that regulates the
quality of life.
Let us return to the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen and consider the role of the
use of manure in agriculture. From the available estimates of experts, the introduc-
tion of 200 kg of manure per year per hectare to cultivated soil, with sucient
moisture content and moderate climate, can feed 15 people, on average. So, in China,
1 ha feeds 5±6 people, and in Japan this indicator is higher because of seafood. In a
given region, this ratio greatly depends on the type and the characteristics of the soil.
Unfortunately, no global model can achieve the level of soil parameterization that
takes account of the available data, at least on the average parameters of a typical soil
and its structure (Williams, 2004).
. The basic constituents of a typical soil include 5% organic matter, 25% water,
and 25% air.
. Soil horizons dier in structure, density, composition, porosity, acidity, and

color.
. There are three main soil horizons.
(1) A-horizon (surface soil). This includes the mulch layer and plow layer.
Living organisms are most abundant in this horizon, consisting of plant
roots, bacteria, fungi, and small animals.
(2) B-horizon (subsoil). This layer is an intermediate soil layer characterized by
properties of both the A and C-horizons.
(3) C-horizon (parent material). Soil parent materials are those from which the
soil was formed.
As Austin et al. (2004) demonstrated, the episodic nature of water availability in

arid and semiarid ecosystems substantially aects the cycles of carbon and biogenic
elements in these territories. Pulsed water supplies directly govern soil processes by
means of dry/moist soil cycles. The inevitable responses of micro-¯ora to this cyclicity
can cause a shift in the C/N ratio, which changes the mineralization processes. By
violating biogeochemical cycles, especially those of water and other GHGs, people
aect the processes of biotic regulation of the environment, preparing the irreversible
transition of climate to one that is un®t for life. This was illustrated by the work of
Karibaeva et al. (2004) where three phase states of the climate are described.
(1) Complete glaciation of the planet at a temperature preserved at 100 C.

(2) Complete evaporation of the oceans at a temperature preserved at 400 C.
(3) Equilibrium between various processes in the environment preserving a globally
averaged temperature 15 C, which provides conditions suitable for life at
many latitudes.
As noted in Kondratyev et al. (2005) and Krapivin and Varotsos (2007), people's
quality of life is directly connected with biogeochemical cycles through such processes
of consumption of food, energy, and other conditions and goods. Most of the global
population (>1.7 billion people) fall in the ``class of consumers'', with about half of
this population living in developing countries. Starke (2002) pointed out that more
than 1.2 billion people live on less than U.S.$1 a day. It is this indicator that points up
one of the main causes of instability in many countries: poverty, which creates ideal
conditions for the propagation of various diseases.
In recent decades, the scale of consumption in developed countries is often
termed a ``revolution in consumption'' and has been constantly growing. In 2000,
total per capita consumption of goods and services reached U.S.$20 trillion, exceed-
ing the level of 1960 by $4.8 trillion (in U.S.$ of 1995), with huge dierences
characterizing the situation in dierent countries. Sixty percent of per capita con-
sumption falls on 16% of the global population living in the U.S.A. and western
Europe, whereas the share of consumption for one-third of the global population in
South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa constitutes only 3.2%. Such an `ùnhealthy level
of consumption'' results in increased impacts on the environment and natural
resources. Table 2.5 summarizes this.
Sec. 2.7] Biological, chemical, and physical indicators of biogeochemical cycle quality 129
In addition to the Human Development Index (HDI) used to characterize living

standards, the Wellbeing Index (WI) was proposed to list the top 180 countries
regarding human well-being (health, standard of education, material security, and
civil rights) and the environment. According to WI data, Sweden tops the table, and
the United Arab Emirates closes the list, though the level of energy consumption in
this country is almost double that of Sweden (Table 2.6). Austria occupies a very
modest place according to energy consumption, but is characterized by a high level of
well-being.
2.7 BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL, AND PHYSICAL INDICATORS OF THE

QUALITY OF BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
Biogeochemical cycles are the complex processes of matter and energy transforma-
tion in the environment. Their analysis and study require the development of complex
models, the use of which to assess the state of the biological cycle needs creation of
simpli®ed indicators that re¯ect individual aspects of its development or describe
integral trends in changes of its characteristic (Cuney et al., 2000; Corstanje and
Reddy, 2004; Leonova, 2004). In other words, the main function of an indicator is to
re¯ect by means of a single parameter the behavior of the biological cycle, reveal its
critical states, or outline the boundaries of possible negative consequences of anthro-
pogenic interference with this cycle. The goal of the indicator is to give a reliable
answer to the main question: What will happen to the biogeochemical cycle on
realization of a given scenario of NSS development? Therefore, indicators are an
important means to project and assess the strategies of human impacts on the
environment enabling us, based on a simple indicator of its state, to make a decision
about the expedience of realization of any anthropogenic scenario. It is especially
important when assessing the role of the environment in the formation of life
conditions for a population in a given region.
Smeets and Weterings (1999) introduced four types of indicators.
. Descriptive indicators. They answer the question concerning changes in a certain

set of environmental characteristics and their impact on the biogeochemical
cycle.
. Performance indicators. They measure deviations of the biogeochemical cycle
from its prescribed state as a result of the impact of realization of a given
scenario.
. Eciency indicators. This type of indicator re¯ects the level of eciency of
an anthropogenic impact on the environment that can be seen by changes in
. Total welfare indicators. They point to the biogeochemical cycle's stability.
An important constituent of biogeochemical cycles is the water medium, by the

state of which we can assess the level of change in the biogeochemical cycle of a
certain element. The most widespread indicator of the quality of this constituent of
the biogeochemical cycle is the level of water eutrophication: as a rule this includes
the ®ve-day biological oxygen demand (BOD5 ), fecal indicator, bacteria, and viruses.
BOD5 represents the amount of oxygen consumed by bacteria and other micro-
organisms as they decompose organic matter under aerobic conditions at a speci®ed
temperature. But, there exist more complicated indicators, including that of the
degree of heterogeneity or diversity of the ecosystem (e.g., the Shannon±Weaver
Index, the formula of which is H 0 pi log pi , where pi is the fraction of individuals
of species i). Clearly, the relationship J H 0 =H 0max characterizes an ecosystem's
homogeneity, and when J ! 0 this level rises. Here H 0max is the value of H 0 computed
with the same number of species, but equal pi values.
Another indicator of the state of the ecosystem is the Simpson Index,
N2 NN 1=nn 1], where N is the total number of individuals of every
species and n is the number of individuals of one species. In this case the equitability
of abundance can then be derived by V N2 =N2max , where N2max is N2 calculated for
the same number of species and individuals, but equal abundances for each. Species
abundances are more evenly distributed as V approaches 1.0 (Cox, 1985).
Apart from the Shannon±Weaver and Simpson indicators, other indicators such
as Eveness, Margalef, the Family Biotic Index (FBI), Trent Biotic Index (TBI), and
Indice Biotico Esteso (IBE) are widely used. While the Shannon±Weaver, Simpson,
Eveness, and Margalef are ecological indices created to measure diversity in eco-
logical communities, the FBI is a synthetic index used in the ®eld assessment of
organic pollution. It can vary from 0 to 10, detecting seven classes of organic
contamination. The IBE is based on two evaluation parameters: taxonomic richness
and the presence of pollution-sensitive taxa (Fenoglio et al., 2002). It is used to assess
the ``health'' of river ecosystems. The TBI determines the pollution level of water
merely by the presence/absence of certain invertebrates.
An unbroken biogeochemical cycle is widely manifested in dierent media by
indicators of the stable dynamics of the content of chemical elements, or stable
ecodynamics. In other words, correlation between the biogeochemical cycle and
the ecological situation serves as a direct indicator of the state of the biogeochemical
cycle. This is demonstrated by comparing biogeochemical cycles in background and
anthropogenically violated media. For instance, by comparing the chemical com-
position of soils close to roadsides and territories far from anthropogenic sources of
pollution, an abrupt increase in heavy metal content is observed, which leads to a
change in the chemical composition of soils. The role of land vegetation manifests
itself by altering the temporal characteristics of biogeochemical cycles. An important
indicator of the state of the biogeochemical cycle in the atmosphere±plant±soil system
is the response of the soil solution to the migratory activity of pollutants and speci®c
features of vegetation cover, whose biosorption ability serves, to a certain extent, as a
stabilizing factor. Of course, one of the most powerful ecological factors for biogeo-
chemical cycle regulation here is soil moisture, which has a versatile in¯uence on soil
biota and leads to reorganization of soil microbial coenosis.
Vegetation plays the principal role in the biogeochemical cycles of many
elements, regulating their spatial heterogeneity. In order to clarify this role, various
vegetation indices are introduced which describe variations in the activity of vegeta-
Sec. 2.8] 2.8 The role of living processes in biogeochemical cycles 131
tion in time and space and thereby re¯ect this variability in biogeochemical cycles,
too. Among the well-known vegetation indices the MODIS Vegetation Index (VI),
Leaf Area Index (LAI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Transformed SAVI
(TSAVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Dierence Vegetation Index (DVI), and
Normalized Dierence Vegetation Index (NDVI) stand out. All these indices measure
vegetation cover brightness in the near-IR and visible red bands. We have, in
particular:
VI Xnir =Xred ; NDVI Xnir Xred =Xnir Xred ;
SAVI Xnir Xred =Xnir Xred L=1 L;
where L is the correction factor; Xnir and Xred are the radiances for the NIR and red
visible wavelengths, respectively. There are other formulas to calculate these indices.
For instance, LAI mv =, where mv is the water content of vegetation and is the
proportionality coecient.
2.8 THE ROLE OF LIVING PROCESSES IN

People, in the process of their daily lives, change the environment in an attempt to
improve their standards of living. As an NSS element, they follow certain laws and
conditions, and therefore individual strategies of behavior depend to a great extent on
public strategy and, of course, cannot be optimal. The integral impact of population
on the environment is a function of numerous factors that mainly depend on popu-
lation density. Anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems change the character of the
interaction between its biotic and abiotic parts, and hence, fragments of the global
biogeochemical cycle. The scale of this change is much greater in densely populated
territories. More than 60% of the world population live within 100 km of the sea
coast, and therefore the oceans are under growing anthropogenic in¯uence despite
many measures to reduce this by many countries. Marine biodiversity has reduced:
from 1900 up to the present the predatory ®sh supply along the eastern coast of the
U.S.A. and the western coast of Europe has decreased from more than 10 t km 2 to
3.75 t km 2 and continues to decrease. For the Atlantic region, during this period the
supply of predatory ®sh decreased, on average, from 2.9 t km 2 to 1.0 t km 2 (Pauly
and Maclean, 2003).
An alarming and pessimistic situation is currently occurring in Europe where
ecological resources have been largely exhausted, and, hence, foreign resources are
used. In some European countries hardly any virgin biosystems are left, except in
Norway, Finland, Sweden to some extent, and, of course, European Russia. In the
territory of Russia (17 10 6 km 2 ) there are 9 10 6 km 2 of virgin territory and, hence,
functioning ecological systems. A considerable part of this territory is covered by
tundra that is biologically low in producton. Russian wooded tundra, taiga, and
sphagnum (peat) bogs are ecosystems without which it is impossible to imagine the
normally functioning of biota over the globe. Russia, for instance, is the world's top
assimilator (due to its vast forests and marshes) of CO2 , about 40%. It should be
stated perhaps that there is nothing in the world more precious for the people of the
world and their future than the continued preservation and functioning of the natural
ecological system in Russia. In Russia, the ecological situation is aggravated by
prolonged general crises due to the absence of national ecological programs and
the economic shocks that have taken place (Makarov, 2000; Mironov, 2005)
. The level of industrial production in Russia in 1996 constituted 47% of the level
in 1980.
. In 2000 the percentage of the population living below the poverty level was
between 25 and 40.
. Life expectancy in 2007 averaged 65 years.
. Costs of measures to ensure ecological safety in 2007 constituted 0.1% of GDP.
. Costs of measure for the protection of nature in 2007 constituted 2% of GDP.
Therefore, it is rather dicult to undertake a global-scale assessment of the state

of biogeochemical cycles (e.g., of GHGs) without reliable data for Russia. Russia is
one of the main exporters of raw materials to the world market. Unfortunately,
during the post-Soviet period Russia was unable to deal eectively with the many
formidable environmental challenges.
Besides people, the globe is a habitat for the myriad organisms that form a
hierarchy of groups and sub-groups in accordance with the similarities and dier-
ences in their structure and behavior. This dierence and diversity of species is an
important basis for understanding the role of living processes in biogeochemical
cycles. After all, every species is connected directly or indirectly with a multitude
of others in an ecosystem. Predator/victim interactions provide the cyclicity of
biogeochemical cycles. But interactions between living organisms depend substan-
tially on many other factors such as radiance level, temperature, precipitation, topog-
raphy, biogenic elements, etc. Their life dynamics are regulated by the character of
the use of the habitat's life resources, including food, space, light, heat, water, air,
and shelter. One should emphasize here the dierence between the role of humans
and other living organisms in the control of biogeochemical cycles. In contrast to
purposeful and mainly deliberate human activity, other living organisms interact with
their environment following the laws of natural evolution. Unfortunately, current
knowledge and available data bases are not up to the job of evaluating the ratio of
the roles of humans and other living organisms (plants included) in regulating
Living organisms live in harmony with the environment through reactions
from the exchange of matter and energy, whose content and rate are determined
by dierent biophysical, biochemical, and geochemical parameters. It should be
mentioned here that, for instance, the chemical composition of plants in the historical
past was highly stable. In the pre-industrial epoch, processes of accumulation of
chemical elements took place both in plants and in living organisms. Plants and
Sec. 2.8] 2.8 The role of living processes in biogeochemical cycles 133
Table 2.8. Parameters of the heavy metal cycle in the birch forest of Kuznetsk Alatau. From
Shugalei et al. (2005).
Indicator of the Heavy metal

biogeochemical cycle
Barium Manganese Copper Nickel Zinc
Storage in forest 871±1,485 520±688 21±26 12±66 56±91

ecosystems (kg ha 1 )
Accumulation in NPP 32±40 4.8±6.1 56±77 7±10 195±238

(dry weight) (g ha 1 yr 1 )
Recovery speed for return to 25±32 3.8±5.1 14±27.7 4.3±8 156±199.9

the soil after leaf-fall
(g ha 1 yr 1 )
living organisms had enough time to assimilate the chemical elements reaching their
biomass, and therefore they were accumulated. For instance, the accumulation of
heavy metals in the litter of vegetation cover is determined not only by the biological
cycle but also by dierent intensity of abscission taken up by soil invertebrates and
micro-organisms. For instance, fallen birch leaves and grass take 2.5±3 years to
transform, and it takes decades to transform the trunk and branches. Such a dier-
ence in time of decomposition of litter components is a powerful regulator of the
biogeochemical cycle of many elements assimilated by plants. Table 2.8 contains
some estimates of heavy metal cyclicity parameters.
3
Numerical modeling of global carbon change
3.1 OVERVIEW OF THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE
3.1.1 Status and perspectives of carbon cycle science

In recent decades the problem of the global carbon cycle (GCC) has attracted special
attention in connection with the many, often speculative, explanations of the role of
CO2 in future climate change (Kondratyev, 2000a, 2002, 2004a). Unfortunately, so
far, there is no objective evaluation of this role. Recent works (Kondratyev, 2004b;
Kondratyev and Krapivin, 2003a, b; Kondratyev et al., 2002a, b, 2003a±c, 2004a, b;
Fasham, 2003) contained reviews of the ®rst results of creating a formalized technol-
ogy to assess the CO2 -induced greenhouse eect, with the role of land and ocean
ecosystems taken into account. An interactive connection was shown between the
GCC in the form of CO2 and climate change. Formalization of this connection is
based on synthesizing global models of how the NSS functions with the spatial
distribution of NSS elements taken into account, which makes it possible to reduce
it to an interrelated scheme of the cause-and-eect relationships of carbon ¯uxes
between their various reservoirs in the atmosphere, land biosphere, ocean, and
geosphere (Figures 3.1±3.5).
To understand the laws of the GCC, it is necessary to have reliable information
about the main sources and sinks of carbon and their inter-regional ¯uxes. Powerful
sources of CO2 (>0.1 Mt CO2 ) number 7,500. Their geographic distribution can be
described in four clusters:
(1) North America (middle, east, and eastern coast of the U.S.A.);
(2) northwestern Europe;
(3) South-East Asia (eastern coast); and
(4) south Asia (Indian sub-continent).
136 Numerical modeling of global carbon change [Ch. 3
Figure 3.1. Global carbon cycle after Bolin and Sukumar (2000). Carbon supplies are given in
GtC, and its ¯uxes in GtC/yr.
Figure 3.2. Global carbon reservoirs, ¯uxes, and turnover times.

Sec. 3.1] 3.1 Overview of the global carbon cycle 137
Figure 3.3. Conceptual scheme for the Earth's climate system.
Figure 3.4. Carbon ¯uxes in the atmosphere±plant±soil system.

Figure 3.5. Radiation balance of the Earth.
The fourth cluster is characterized by the maximum rate of development; by 2050

a sudden increase in the number of CO2 sources over this territory should be
expected, and at the same time, their number in Europe should decrease. Of course,
there is a certain dependence here between the geographical distribution of CO2
sources and the geological supplies of fossil fuels.
In this connection, Baker et al. (2006) studied monthly CO2 ¯uxes for the period
1988±2003 for its regional emissions in 22 countries based on measurements at 78
locations using 13 dierent models of the atmospheric transport, which re¯ect the
role of winds and other environmental parameters. An objective formalization of
biospheric sources and sinks of CO2 as functions of environmental parameters as well
as consideration of the real role of anthropogenic processes have become possible due
to the global network created to measure surface CO2 concentration and recent
developments by many authors in constructing models that describe to dierent
degrees the spatial distribution of carbon ¯uxes and their interaction with NSS
components (Kondratyev et al., 2004a). For instance, land sinks are determined
by three basic factors (Kondratyev and Isidorov, 2001):
. functional dependence of ecosystem sensitivity to CO2 concentration in the

atmosphere and temperature;
. time shifts in the interactive atmosphere±ocean system; and
. the slow carbon cycle in the biospheric reservoir.
The assimilation of CO2 by land ecosystems is determined by the dierence

between carbon assimilation due to photosynthesis and loss of carbon due to respira-
tion. However, the subsequent climatic impact shows itself only in several decades in
view of the great thermal inertia of the ocean. The carbon cycle on land is also
heterogeneous in its temporal characteristics. Carbon supplies in the land biosphere
exist in two forms: about one-third in the form of biomass (mainly forests) and two-
thirds as soil carbon. Both these forms include sub-reservoirs with dierent time
constants of the cycle, which determines the variability in carbon sink on land. So,
for instance, an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration intensi®es the growth of
forest and thereby increases the land sink of carbon, but because of the long lifetime
of forest (100±200 years), accumulated carbon will returning to the atmosphere with a
great time lag which is governed by many factors. Therefore, special attention must
be paid to the study of the role of forests in the GCC (Medlyn et al., 2005). Also of
importance are studies of the carbon cycle in cultivated lands. For instance, from
estimates of Verma et al. (2005), the sink of atmospheric CO2 on an irrigated maize
®eld can constitute from 381 gC m 2 yr 1 to 517 and on a soybean ®eld from
18 gC m 2 yr 1 to 48 gC m 2 yr 1 .
The CO2 ¯ux at the atmosphere±vegetation cover boundary is determined in
many respects by the soil processes involved in organic matter transformation. To
better understand the biotic and abiotic mechanisms that control CO2 emission from
the soil, Jassal et al. (2005) compared measured CO2 ¯uxes in a forest with their
distribution pro®le in the soil of a 54-year-old coniferous forest on the eastern coast
of Vancouver. It was established that CO2 concentration grows at all depths of the
soil layer with rising temperature and humidity. This is explained by soil diusion
reduction and changes in soil ecosystem functioning. It was noted that more than
75% of CO2 emitted from the soil was generated at a depth of 20 cm, and almost total
CO2 ¯ux forms from the 0 cm±50 cm layer.
Though it is usually supposed that the growth in atmospheric CO2 concentration
is anthropogenic and connected with the increasing scale of economic activity
(mainly, energy production and consumption), it was shown that since 1980 natural
factors have contributed more than the increasing level of fuel burning. Recent
studies showed that the possible changes in ecosystem physiology connected, in
particular, with the eect of fertilization (intensi®cation of photosynthesis under
conditions of increased CO2 concentration) strongly aect carbon ¯uxes.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agreement was signed
by 189 countries, and it establishes a general agreement to stabilize GHG concentra-
tion to limit the anthropogenic impact on climate, though concrete levels have not
been speci®ed, and the KP levels of CO2 are being disputed by many countries as
scienti®cally ungrounded. A reduction in CO2 emissions to the atmosphere includes:
. reduction of energy consumption (e.g., due to the growing eciency in the

development of industrial enterprises that consume less power;
. transition to new kinds of fuel or fuels with a lesser content of carbon (e.g.,
natural gas instead of coal);
. growing share of renewable sources of energy and nuclear energy;
. removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through biological assimilation by land
ecosystems; and
. removal of CO2 from the atmosphere using chemical and physical mechanisms.
In connection with the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol aimed at
preventing climate warming due to the greenhouse eect of anthropogenic emissions
of CO2 , an urgent need has arisen to specify models of carbon circulation in the
environment in order to obtain more objective estimates of the degree and character
of this impact. This came about because of the fact that existing ideas of the role of
atmospheric CO2 in observed changes of climate are based on the rather inaccurate
and inadequate schemes describing the carbon ¯uxes between its main reservoirs on
the planet. One of them is development of a balanced scheme of global carbon ¯uxes.
About 27% of the carbon sink from the atmosphere in available schemes remains
unexplained.
Studies by Kondratyev et al. (2004a, b) showed that consideration of the spatial
heterogeneity of sinks and sources of atmospheric carbon and speci®cation of the
parameters of its ¯uxes at the atmosphere±land and atmosphere±ocean boundaries
raised the accuracy of estimates, but did little to remove either imbalances or dier-
ences between carbon ¯uxes and the dynamics of the change in CO2 partial pressure
in the terrestrial atmosphere.
Unfortunately, the program of carbon ¯ux control within the Global Carbon
Project (GCP) ignored this contradiction. This reduces considerably the con®dence in
existing scenarios of possible natural cataclysms caused by the melting of Arctic and
Antarctic ice and distorts the pattern of anthropogenic impact on climatic processes.
A most serious shortcoming of the GCP program is that it disregards the geological
component of the present carbon cycle.
From available, though approximate, estimates, about 10 23 g of carbon-
containing gases are concentrated in the rocks of the Earth's crust and mantle
(lithosphere) (Korstenshtein, 1984; Sokolov, 1971). This mass of carbon exceeds
by approximately 10 4 times the amount present today in the biosphere (over the
Earth surface). Between the biosphere and lithosphere there is a constant, very
intensive exchange of carbon that is self-regulatory. From the data of Barenbaum
(2000, 2002), due to the Le Chatelier principle (Krapivin et al., 1982), the content of
mobile carbon in the system tries to attain a stable relationship:
ni =i C const; 3:1
where ni and i are, respectively, total amount and average time of residence of mobile
carbon (in every form) in the ith reservoir of the system; C is the constant characteriz-
ing the cycle of the rate of carbon in the system. For the present state of the carbon
cycle in the biosphere, C 2:7 0:05 10 17 gCO2 yr 1 .
If Condition (3.1) is valid, removal of carbon from any reservoir of the system
due to the cycle is replenished by its input from other reservoirs. If it is not valid,
uncompensated ¯ows of matter appear in the system, which return it to equilibrium.
In the process of the global cycle, mobile carbon repeatedly crosses the Earth's
surface. Over the surface, playing the role of the ``geochemical barrier'', it circulates
mainly in the oxidized form (CO2 ), and under the surface mainly in the restored form
(CH4 ). This fact requires a study of the global cycles of CO2 and CH4 .
Between all the factors governing a re-distribution of carbon above (and below)
the planetary surface, two processes of mainly regional character play the most
important role: notably, (1) carbon transport by meteogenic water and (2) human
economic activity. Due to the ®rst factor, excess carbon in continents mixes with
meteogenic water under the Earth surface, where reduced as hydrocarbons (HCs)
they take part in the processes of present-day oil±gas formation (Barenbaum, 2004).
As a result, industrial deposits of oil and gas are located: ®rst, within large deposit
basins that drain vast territories, and second, they gravitate toward zones where there
are crust fractures. The presence of fractures, on the one hand, makes easier the
penetration of meteogenic water under the surface and, on the other hand, promotes
a release from such water of the carbon transported by them (Barenbaum, 2002).
Actual data show that oil and gas deposits are remarkably replenished during a
period of 10±50 years. Such a short time period for deposit formation is determined
by the rapid transport of carbon by water above the Earth's surface. From measure-
ments that are likely underestimated, this rate on a global scale constitutes
5 10 15 gC yr 1 (Voitov, 1999). This process is rather non-uniform (Syvorotkin,
2002). The basic mass of carbon descends onto the continents and their outskirts
and moves upward around mid-oceanic ridges, along the continental fractures, and
during numerous volcanic eruptions at the ocean bottom. Unfortunately, quantita-
tively these upward and downward carbon ¯uxes in the continents and especially in
the ocean have been studied inadequately. What all this means is that the GCC
cannot be studied separately from the global cycle of water.
The anthropogenic factor of carbon re-distribution between surface and under-
ground reservoirs shows itself in the extraction and consumption of oil (4 10 9 t yr 1 )
and natural gas (350 10 12 m 3 yr 1 ). Hence, the total mass of the consumed fossil
carbon constitutes 7 10 15 gC yr 1 , which is comparable with the amount received
by the surface due to natural circulation. Therefore, human activity closely connected
with these volumes of HC utilization, along with the impact on climate, can also
aect strongly the regional processes of oil and gas generation in the bowels of the
Earth.
In the GCP project this fact should be taken into account, too. The present-day
practice of oil and gas transportation over many thousands of kilometers from
the places of extraction can lead to substantial re-distribution of the world resources
of hydrocarbons in the nearest decades. Those industrial countries intensively
consuming oil and gas will accumulate HCs in their territories, while those
countries specializing in extraction and export of oil and gas, will rapidly drain their
resources.
Bearing this in mind, a general scheme for the carbon cycle, supplemented by a
geological unit that facilitates removal of the uncertainty present in the studies of the
GCC connected with the so-called ``missing sink'', can serve as the basis for more
accurate study of the greenhouse eect. This scheme, along with a description of
the main CO2 ¯uxes in the biosphere, considers the possibility of mobile carbon
accumulating under the surface, thereby becoming closed and balanced.
Nadelhoer et al. (1999) showed that the missing sink can be explained neither
by the contribution of the ocean nor carbon assimilation by boreal forests of the
Northern Hemisphere. It was shown that the existing uncertainty about the volume
of carbon sink in forests cannot be reduced by more than 0.25 10 15 gC yr 1 . In
general, four basic versions for removal of this uncertainty are possible at the expense
of the speci®ed role of the biosphere:
. underestimation of carbon input to the ocean cannot not be excluded;
. the role of wetlands in CO2 assimilation is underestimated (Mitsch, 2005);
. a warming-induced increase in the carbon sink in boreal forests is possible; and
. the role of nitrogen in boreal forests is underestimated.
The temporal scale of carbon circulation between its reservoirs diers by orders
of magnitude:
. the surface biosphere stores and emits CO2 on a temporal scale of tens and
hundreds of years;
. oceans contain huge supplies of mobile CO2 , and the time period of its cycle in
ocean ecosystems can vary from days to thousands of years; and
. the mineral deposits of carbonates and geological supplies of carbon bury CO2
for thousands and even millions of years.
The IPCC (2005) report gives a general characteristic of various aspects of the
GCC emphasizing the special features of individual regions and highlighting
unsolved problems. The report notes that at the present state of humankind devel-
opment the basic anthropogenic CO2 sources are:
. fossil fuel burning for energy production and its use in the chemical production
of various goods;
. oil-re®ning plants;
. large-scale industrial enterprises, cement production; and
. biomass fermentation.
Our goal is to analyze future achievements in studies of the GCC and to discuss
the problems of raising the accuracy of assessment of the greenhouse eect due to
anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, we do not discuss the problem of biotic
regulation of the environment closely connected with the GCC problem (Kondratyev
et al., 2003b).
3.1.2 Global Carbon Project and reality

The ®rst report on the GCP (Canadel et al., 2003) contained a formulated strategy for
international cooperation within the framework of the many environmental problems
considered in the context of the interaction of the global nature±human system with
emphasis on the need to develop methods and information technologies for analysis
of the carbon±climate±society system (CCSS). The basic goal was to consider the
following ®ve aspects of the general GCC problem, including
. study of the GCC by integrating natural and anthropogenic components by
analyzing the interactions between energy systems based on fossil fuel, the
biogeochemical carbon cycle, and the physics of climate;
. development of new methods of analysis and numerical modeling of the

integrated carbon cycle;
. global studies of the carbon cycle by taking the results of national and regional
programs on the study of carbon ¯uxes between its reservoirs into account;
. one strategic objective of the international project should be to ®nd ways of
sustainable regional development to achieve stable CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere;
. the division according to advances in technology of all countries into developed
and developing by the GCP foresaw a respective division into industrial, eco-
nomic, and energy sectors of the NSS by their power as sources of anthropogenic
CO2 emissions.
The carbon cycle is closely connected with climate, the cycles of water and
biogenic substances, and the products of photosynthesis on land and in the oceans.
Therefore, all studies of the GCC that disregard the totality of such connections are
unavoidably ¯awed and, naturally, cannot give even approximately reliable estimates
of the consequences of anthropogenic carbon emissions to the environment. For this
reason, many international projects studying the greenhouse eect and its impact on
climate, as well as the Kyoto Protocol regulating CO2 emissions, are equally ¯awed.
Therefore, the GCP instills hope of achieving some progress as a result of planning
interdisciplinary studies of the GCC. The subject matter of these studies can be
divided into
(1) formation of a strategy for GCC study and assessment of its variability;
(2) analysis of cause-and-eect relations in when studying the mechanisms of
interactions between natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks of CO2 and
the environment;
(3) identi®cation and quantitative estimation of the evolutionary processes in the
CCSS.
The ®rst report of the GCP put forward the goal in the next decade of GCC
study to conceptually unite the previously isolated programs IGBP, IHDP, and
WCRP (Steen et al., 2005). Perhaps, for the ®rst time, at least internationally,
the authors of this report substantiated the need for an expanded scheme of
cause-and-eect relations between climate±biosphere system components and
emphasized the necessity for them to be considered together in order to raise the
level of reliability of estimates and predictions of the climatic impact of CO2 . All these
problems have been widely discussed (Kondratyev, 2004a, b; Kondratyev et al.,
2003a±c). Unfortunately, the ®rst GCP report continues to underestimate the role
of anthropogenic GHGs whose contribution in the near future may well exceed the
role of CO2 . The list of GHGs, such as nitrous oxide, sulfur hexa¯uoride, methane,
hydro¯uorocarbons, and chloro¯uorocarbons, is growing with time. The total
emissions recalculated for CO2 in 1990 constituted 3.6 GtCO2 ; by 2010 this is
expected to be 4.0 GtCO2 . By 2010, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are estimated to
be 6.0 GtC yr 1 ±6.7 GtC yr 1 , while their level in 1950 was 1.6 GtC yr 1 . According
to EPA (2001), the levels of human emissions of some GHGs to enhancement of the
greenhouse eect from the beginning of the industrial revolution constituted: CO2
55%, CH4 17%, O3 14%, N2 O 5%, and others 9%.
This means that the continued (rather primitive in most cases) description of the
GCC and the practical absence of parameterization for other GHGs cannot lead to
reliable estimates of possible future climate change due to anthropogenic activity in
the NSS. The means of identifying situations and the capacities of CO2 sources and
sinks on land and in the World Ocean declared by the ®rst GCP report was not
supported by serious and substantiated motivation of the development of new
information technologies for complex analysis of the Earth's radiation balance.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that the main postulate of the GCP substantially
improves our understanding of the GCC, directing the conceptual base of its studies
at combining the natural and anthropogenic components using developed methods,
algorithms, and models. The basic structure of the carbon cycle is determined by
¯uxes between its main reservoirs, including carbon in the atmosphere (mainly in the
form of CO2 ), in the oceans (divided up as surface, intermediate and deep layers, and
bottom deposits), in land ecosystems (vegetation, litter, and soil), in rivers and
estuaries, and in fossil fuels. These reservoirs should be studied by considering
their spatial non-uniformity and dynamics under the in¯uence of natural and
anthropogenic factors on the basis of accumulated knowledge, according to which
(Canadel et al., 2003)
. Anthropogenic carbon emissions have grown constantly ever since industrial

development, reaching 5.2 GtC in 1980 and 6.3 GtC in 2002.
. The content in the atmosphere of basic GHGs (CO2 , CH4 , and N2 O) has
increased from 1750 by 31%, 150%, and 16%, respectively. About 50% of
the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere due to fuel burning has been assimilated
by vegetation and oceans.
. The observed distribution of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen/nitrogen ratios
show that the land sink of carbon prevails in northern and middle latitudes over
the ocean sink. In tropical latitudes, considerable emissions of CO2 to the
atmosphere as a result of the Earth's resources being exploited can be observed.
. Interannual oscillations in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere correspond to
changes in the use of fossil fuels. The intra-annual variability of atmospheric CO2
correlates to a greater extern with the dynamics of land ecosystems and to a lesser
extent with the dynamics of ocean ecosystems.
. Regional transfer of carbon in 2000 due to production of and trade in crops,
wood, and paper constituted 0.72 GtC yr 1 . The pure global carbon ¯ux at the
atmosphere±ocean boundary in 1995 was estimated at 2.2 GtC ( 19% 22%)
with an interannual variability of about 0.5 GtC. The greatest extent of CO2 ¯ux
oscillations in the system can be observed in the equatorial Paci®c.
. The approximate distribution pattern of ocean sources and sinks of atmospheric
CO2 is known: the tropical basins of the oceans are mostly sources of CO2 , and
high-latitude basins are sinks of CO2 . The role of rivers is reduced mainly to the
transport of carbon to the coastal zone of the World Ocean (1 GtC yr 1 ).
The most important aspect of the GCP is the global environmental monitoring
and accumulation of detailed information about biome production, CO2 ¯uxes at the
atmosphere±ocean boundary, and the volumes of anthropogenic carbon emissions.
A special role is played by remote satellite measurements of CO2 using AIRS at the
satellite observatory EOS-Aqua (launched by NASA on March 4, 2002 at an altitude
of 750 km), and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer) carried
onboard the satellite METOP (METeorological Operational Polar) (Nishida et al.,
2003). Other functioning or planned-to-be-launched space vehicles will be used to
evaluate CO2 ¯uxes from the data of indirect measurements of environmental
characteristics. In particular, these are the satellite TIROS-N (Television Infrared
Observational Satellite-Next) and the apparatus SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging
Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography). The latter spectrometer
launched in 2002 ensures the high spectral resolution of absorption bands of green-
house gases such as CO2 , CH4 , H2 O (1% accuracy), and N2 O, CO (10% accuracy)
with the surface resolution from 30 km to 240 km depending on latitude.
Traditionally, ground observations will be continued with the main goal, as
before, to substantiate national strategies of the use of the Earth resources including
the development of forestry and agriculture, including stock-breeding and ®eld crop
cultivation.
The GCP program foresees the extended study of the physical, biological,
biogeochemical, and ecophysiological mechanisms behind carbon ¯ux formation
in the environment. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms and their para-
meterization will make it possible to specify GCC models and related climate change.
Accumulation of such a database of knowledge will enable the following available
information about these mechanisms to be speci®ed (Canadel et al., 2003):
. Atmosphere±ocean carbon exchange is much controlled by physical processes,

including mixing of the surface and deep layers of the ocean across the thermo-
cline. Biological processes favor the movement of carbon from the surface layer
to deep layers and down to bottom sediments. The biological ``pump'' functions
as a result of phytoplankton photosynthesis.
. The complex of feedbacks controls interactive exchange with energy, water, and
carbon between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface causing a response of
these ¯uxes to disturbances such as transformation of land cover or pollution
of the World Ocean with oil. Substantial feedbacks are physiological responses
of vegetation communities to changes in temperature and humidity of the
atmosphere and soil.
. The NH carbon sink depends on the growth of forest, climate change, soil
erosion, fertilization, and carbon accumulation in freshwater systems. Unfor-
tunately, the processes taking place at the same time have been poorly
studied, and experimental information is all but absent. The power of the land
sink of carbon can grow if climate change follows a given path. As soon as
550 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration is exceeded, many processes in land
ecosystems will experiencing a de®cit of biogenes and water, and therefore the
photosynthetic accumulation of carbon by land vegetation will become physio-

logically saturated.
. The number of key factors determining directions and amplitudes of CO2 ¯uxes
between the atmosphere and land ecosystems are limited by several factors:
(1) Extreme climatic phenomena such as droughts, large shifts of seasonal
temperatures, change of solar radiation due to the large-scale input of
aerosols to the atmosphere (e.g., by volcanic eruptions or by the large-scale
®res that took place in Iraq in connection with recent military operations).
(2) Forest and other ®res which contribute large-scale and long-term changes to
characteristics of the carbon cycle (of th eglobal pure primary production of
57 GtC yr 1 , approximately 5%±10% is emitted to the atmosphere due to
wood burning).
(3) Use of soils that changes biome boundaries and their types (substitution of
coniferous forests for evergreen, pastures for forests, forested territories for
meadows, etc.).
. Phenomena such as El NinÄos or thermocline circulation in the North Atlantic
lead to global instability in the processes of energy and matter exchange, which
should be re¯ected by parameterizing non-linear feedbacks.
The future dynamics of carbon exchange in the surface±atmosphere system

will be determined by the strategy adopted for the interaction of natural and anthro-
pogenic factors which, on the one hand, is apparent, but, on the other hand, is still to
be discussed, since the problem of the greenhouse eect cannot be resolved within
the framework of the GCP because this program is treated separately from other
thematic sections of global ecodynamics. A broader approach to this problem
was developed in the works of Kondratyev et al. (2002a, b, 2003a, 2004a) which,
unfortunately, have so far been ignored by GCP elaborators.
3.1.3 A new approach to the study of the global carbon cycle

In some recent works (Bartsev et al., 2003; Degermendzhy and Bartsev, 2003;
Krapivin and Kondratyev, 2002; Kondratyev et al., 2002a, b, 2003b, 2004a; Tarko,
2003, 2005) it was suggested that the GCC be considered in the context of its
connections with other processes in the NSS. As these works point out, the carbon
cycle correlates with a multitude of natural and anthropogenic factors whose inter-
action forms the dynamics of key processes in the NSS. For CO2 , these are the
exchanges at the boundaries of the atmosphere with land cover and sea and ocean
basins. Clearly, the analysis of CO2 dynamics in the biosphere is possible with the
available data on the spatial distribution of its sinks and sources. The present level of
knowledge enables us to estimate the climatic impact of the greenhouse eect and
to narrow down, thereby, the uncertainty in estimates of future climate change.
However, the GCC model used here should re¯ect not only the spatial mosaics of
its reservoirs, sinks, and sourcesÐbut also provide a dynamic calculation of their
capacities. Earlier calculations using GCC models inadequately considered informa-
tion about the state and classi®cation of land cover, and even more so about World
Ocean basin variability. Therefore, formation of the scheme of spatial distribution of

soil±vegetation formations and quasi-homogeneous World Ocean basins will make it
possible to overcome such shortcomings in other models. A system of balance
equations for this scheme is as follows:
@ iS '; ; z; t @ i '; ; z; t @ i '; ; z; t @ i '; ; z; t

V' S V S Vz S
@t @' @ @z
X X
HjS HSm i 1; . . . ; N;
j 2 OS m 2 OS
where S is the carbon reservoir in the ith cell (pixel) of spatial structure; ' is latitude;
is longitude; z is depth; t is time; HjS is carbon ¯ux from the jth reservoir to reservoir
S; HSm is the carbon sink from the reservoir S to the mth reservoir; OS is the
multitude of carbon reservoirs bordering reservoir S; N is the number of carbon
reservoirs; VV' ; V ; Vz is the rate of exchange between reservoirs. Here rate V and
¯uxes H are the non-linear functions of environmental parameters. The form of these
functions was described in detail, for instance, in the work of Krapivin and Kon-
dratyev (2002). Here they will only be speci®ed. First of all, the elements of the
biocenotic unit of the global model must be speci®ed. To do this, the global land
surface
P should be covered by a homogeneous grid of geographic pixels
i j f'; : 'i 1 ' < 'i ; j 1 < j g with boundaries in latitude ('i 1 ; 'i )
and longitude (j 1 ; j ), and area . The number of pixels is determined by the
available database; that is, by the choice of grid sizes D'; D: i 1; . . . ; n;
n 180=D'; j 1; . . . ; k; k 180=D. As a rule, the choice of pixels for computer
calculations is oriented according to the structure of the land surface, and in the case
of the atmosphere at one of three scales of atmospheric processes. To parameterize
synoptic-scale processes, a pixel 1,000 km 2 in size is chosen. For other situations,
meso-scales and micro-scales are used with characteristic spatial scales of 1 km 2 ±
1,000 km 2 and <1 km 2 , respectively. Each pixel can cover N types of surface, includ-
ing types of soil±vegetation formations, water system basins, and anthropogenic
objects. The dynamics of vegetation cover of the s-type follows the law:
dBs
Rs Ms Ts ;
dt
where Rs is photosynthesis; Ms and Ts are losses of biomass Bs due to its dying o and
evapotranspiration, respectively.
The right-hand components of this equation are functions of the environmental
characteristics: light, temperature, atmosphere and soil humidity, and CO2 con-
centration in the air. There are various ways and forms of parameterizing these
functions. One of them is the model of Collatz et al. (1990, 1992, 2000) which serves
as the basis for the global biospheric model SiB2 (Sellers et al., 1996). Temperature,
humidity, and rate of moisture evaporation in the vegetation layer and soil are
interconnected with biometric parameters and energy ¯uxes in the atmosphere±
vegetation±soil system. By analogy with electrostatics, the notion of ``resistance''
is introduced, and ¯uxes are calculated with a simple formula: ¯ux potential
dierence/resistance. The SiB2 model considers the ¯uxes of sensible and latent heat
through water vapor evaporation for vegetation and soil, and CO2 ¯uxes are divided
into classes C3 and C4 , which substantially raises the accuracy of parameterizing
functions in the right-hand part of the above equation for the biomass dynamics
of vegetation cover. According to Collatz et al. (1992), three factors regulate the
function Rs : eciency of the photosynthetic fermentation system, the amount of
photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) assimilated by cellulose chlorophyll, and
the ability of a plant species to assimilate and deliver to the environment photosynth-
esis products. Application of the Libich principle and consideration of data on the
distribution of the types of vegetation covers by pixels fSi j g, partial pressures of CO2
and O2 , air temperature and density, and illumination level enables us to calculate
¯uxes H in the equation of carbon balance for all land pixels.
The model of the carbon cycle in the atmosphere±ocean system was described in
detail in the work of Kondratyev et al. (2003b). It was based on the same grid of
geographic pixels but combined with a zonal principle according to the classi®cation
of Tarko (2001, 2003). Ocean thickness is considered to be a unique biogeocenosis in
which the basic combining factor is the ¯ux of organic matter produced in surface
layers, which then penetrates down to maximum depths in the ocean. The regulator
of carbon ¯uxes in this medium is the carbonate system, a parametric description
of which was given in the work of Kondratyev et al. (2004a). As Follows et al. (2006)
showed, the accuracy of CO2 ¯ux assessment depends on how the ocean carbonate
system is parameterized. Follows et al. (2006) proposed a simpli®ed method to
describe the local carbonate system using 3-D biogeochemical models of the ocean
based on parameterization of acidity with a minimum of interacting elements. Based
on this approach, it was shown that failing to take regional changes in concentrations
of dissolved inorganic phosphorus and silic acid in the surface layer of the ocean into
account can lead to substantial systematic errors in the estimates of CO2 ¯uxes at the
atmosphere±ocean boundary. To some extent, this approach had something in
common with the ideas of Bartsev et al. (2003) about the necessity to use simpli®ed
models to describe global biospheric processes.
Many parameters of the GCC model can be measured by satellite monitoring,
which makes it possible to apply an adaptive scheme for calculation of greenhouse
eect characteristics (Kondratyev et al., 2004a). Such a scheme enables us to gain
experience of the model as corrections to its structure and parameters proceed.
Satellite measurements in the visible and near-IR regions provide operative estimates
of PAR and such vegetation characteristics as vegetation canopy greenness, area of
living photosynthetically active elements, soil humidity and water content in vegeta-
tion cover elements, CO2 concentration on the surface of leaves, etc. Dierent ways of
predicting vegetation cover biomass in each pixel Si j and comparison with satellite
measurements make it possible to correct some parts of the model (e.g., by doubling
its units or their parametric adjustment in order to minimize a discrepancy between
predictions and measurements). In particular, to calculate primary production there
are a number of semi-empirical models which can be used by separate units in
dierent pixels. There is a certain freedom of choice in estimating evaporation given
o by vegetation cover (Wange and Archer, 2003).
Thus, theoretical analysis of the dynamics involved in the GCC shows that it is
determined by a complicated totality of feedback mechanisms of timescales from
decades to centuries and longer. Here are some of them:
. A change of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere aects through feedbacks

the carbon ¯uxes at the boundaries of natural media. The eciency of carbon
assimilation from the atmosphere by the ocean decreases with growing atmo-
spheric CO2 concentration due to the decreasing buer capacity of its carbonate
system.
. An increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere does not determine sub-
stantial fertilization of marine bioproductivityÐbut does lead to pH decrease. As
temperature grows, CO2 assimilation by the ocean decreases, but CO2 emissions
due to upwellings are reduced and the transport of excess carbon to deep layers of
the ocean diminishes. The anthropogenically induced input of nutrients to the
oceans through river run-o and deposition of atmospheric aerosols (especially
nitrate and iron as elements of atmospheric aerosols) can aect bioproductivity.
. Due to bioproductivity processes, carbon is transported from the surface to
deep layers of the ocean, where it is re-mineralized. This process maintains the
inorganic carbon concentration gradient and preservation of CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere at a level which is (100±200) 10 6 lower than it would be
without bioproductivity.
. The assimilation of CO2 on land is determined by net biome productivity (NBP),
which is the balance between net primary productivity (NPP 56.4 10 9 tC yr 1 )
and carbon losses due to heterotrophic respiration and burning processes.
According to observational data for many ecosystems, with increasing CO2
concentration the NPP should grow with a gradual transition toward saturation
at reaching a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 800 ppm±1,000 ppm.
. The eciency of the carbon sink on land depends on the transformation of
carbon compounds into forms characterized by having a long lifetime (wood,
soil). An enhancement of carbon sink due to increasing NPP can manifest itself
only as a result of the inertia of these slow reservoirs of carbon in the process of
land cultivation. At present, global pure production in agriculture is estimated at
8 10 9 tC yr 1 .
. In the case of short timescales of atmospheric warming the rate of heterotrophic
respiration on land will grow, but the degree of the impact of this process on
long-term processes of CO2 exchange remains unclear. Warming and regional
changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation and clouds can cause changes
in the structures of land ecosystems, their geographic distribution, and primary
production. The total impact of such forcings should depend on special features
of the regional structures of climate changes.
. The carbon cycle in land ecosystems is strongly aected by how land is used (e.g.,
agriculture, deforestation, and aorestation).
. Biotic regulation in atmosphere±land CO2 exchange in tropical rainforests that
demonstrate a vast biodiversity of species is still poorly studied (Bampfylde et al.,
2005).
3.1.4 Greenhouse effect and natural disasters

Problems as a result of the greenhouse eect have been discussed in detail in many
publications (Boehmer-Christiansen, 2000; Demirchian and Kondratyev, 1999;
Kondratyev, 1996, 2003, 2004a; Kondratyev and Demirchian, 2001; Krapivin,
2000a; Sorochtin, 2001; Chen et al., 2000; Pervaniuk and Tarko, 2001; Parchomenko
and Tarko 2002; Tarko, 2005). However, other than a few publications, the inter-
action between the GCC state and natural disasters remains unstudied. Predicted
climate warming in the range 2.5 C±5.0 C due to an increase of CO2 concentration in
the atmosphere can lead to large-scale catastrophic phenomena such as a rise in
World Ocean level by 0.6 m±1.0 m, which would create serious problems for the
densely populated regions of continental coasts and for gas and oil enterprises in
lowland zones of most of the coasts of northern Russia. Moreover, a considerable
breakdown of regional water balances could take place with a possible extension of
deserts and disappearance of permafrost zones. Clearly, such predictions are based
on incorrect climate models; nevertheless, humankind must ®nd information tech-
nologies that study global processes in the NSS accurately and eciently. At present,
such technologies are being created by modifying climate models through including
additional parameters, which should raise their adequacy, but might make them less
stable, or through synthesizing simple model units, which parameterize direct con-
nections and feedbacks in the climate system by using a small set of well-determined
characteristics (Bartsev et al., 2003; Degermendzhy and Bartsev, 2003).
The problem of possible global climate warming due to anthropogenic sources of
GHGs is important primarily for understanding real trends in global ecodynamics.
Is there a direct dependence between a change of GHG concentrations in the atmo-
sphere and natural disasters? This is one of the most important aspects of the present
science of the environment, whose study will make it possible to more reliably predict
many destructive natural phenomena that inevitably lead to the loss of life and
economic damage. World statistics on natural disasters reveals a four-fold increase
of large-scale catastrophes during the last 50 years, with a nine-fold increase of
economic losses. These disasters mainly relat to climate characteristics. Basic natural
disasters can be divided into four groups: hurricanes, ¯oods, earthquakes, and
storms. The relationship between them in dierent global regions is characterized
by strongly diering indicators. On the whole, earthquakes constitute about 15% of
natural disasters, and large-scale storms constitute 35%. However, the levels of
damage are disproportionate to those indicators. A detailed analysis of natural
disasters was carried out in the works of Grigoryev and Kondratyev (2001a, b). Here
we shall only mention the (practically ignored) eect of carbon removal from forests
by hurricanes, a characteristic process in the U.S.A. (McNulty, 2002). On average,
93% of powerful hurricanes occurring in the U.S.A. fall on the southern coast, 55%
of which is covered with forests. In addition to economic damage, these hurricanes
strongly damage forests, transforming the living biomass either into detritus or into
fuel. In other words, hurricanes remove carbon from the cycle in the area of damaged
forest transforming it into other ¯uxes. For instance, in September 1989 Hurricane
Hugo (the most powerful hurricane for the last 100 years) reached a speed of 250 km
hr 1 and removed 20 TgC from forests near the U.S. coast, 1% of which from torn-
o leaves and 5% from fallen pine needles. Along with removed carbon 0.36 Gt of
nitrogen were returned to the soil.
The consequences of natural disasters, their evaluation, and how they can be
overcome are complicated functions of many socio-economic parameters. It is known
that about 30% of the population in developing countries face economic diculties,
and 18% live in poverty. Therefore, developing countries ®nd it dicult to eciently
resist natural disasters. But poverty can be liquidated by developing industry and
agriculture, which judging by KP recommendations is impossible. Hence, it is vitally
important to reliably assess the future dynamics of the atmospheric CO2 concentra-
tion. Of course, to solve the theoretical and practical problems inherent in this, all
available means should be used and even the most fantastic hypotheses should be
taken into account (Walker, 2003).
Licki et al. (2003) showed that consideration of more accurate data on moderate
and boreal forests makes it possible to raise the accuracy of assessment of their role as
sinks of atmospheric carbon. Recent data were used about forests in 55 countries.
Moderate and boreal forests cover about half the global wooded area. Estimates
showed that the transition of atmospheric carbon to wood constitutes 0.71 GtC yr 1 ±
1.1 GtC yr 1 , disregarding the role of soil ecosystems. Saleska et al. (2003) measured
CO2 ¯uxes in the forests of the Amazon and found that the carbon balance in them is
characterized by considerable intra-annual variations the extent of which depends
much on the age of the forest, CO2 concentration in the surface air, and moisture
supply in soil. In particular, in El NinÄo years the carbon ¯ux from an old forest to the
atmosphere enhances considerably. On the whole, characteristic quantities of carbon
¯uxes in the forests of the Amazon are 0.10.5 tC ha 1 yr 1 for assimilated CO2 and
0.1 tC ha 1 yr 1 ±0.4 tC ha 1 yr 1 for emitted CO2 . In some areas of the forest, CO2
sinks of 1.0 tC ha 1 yr 1 ±5.9 tC ha 1 yr 1 were recorded. About 25%±30% of the
Amazon is characterized by a binary climatic regime with a 7-month rainy season
(rains >100 mm mo 1 ) and an annual mean rain rate of 1,920 mm yr 1 . In such
territories, CO2 sinks are characterized by quantities ranging between
150 kgC ha 1 mo 1 and 700 kgC ha 1 mo 1 , and carbon losses due to forest biomass
dying o constitute 2.0 1.6 tC ha 1 yr 1 . This means that sinks and sources of
CO2 in forest territories should be thoroughly estimated, by keeping a detailed
consideration of the spatiotemporal characteristics of forest ecosystems in mind.
Unfortunately, there are no such estimates, and obtaining them was not foreseen
in the GCP.
Climate change and related unfavorable variations of the environment are deter-
mined, to a great extent, by GHG content, among which N2 O plays an important
role. From the viewpoint of the biospheric balance between carbon and nitrogen,
there is a certain regularity in the C/N ratio that should be re¯ected in the GCP model
to improve its accuracy. Average C/N quantities are 200 for trees and 15 for soils.
Therefore, for reliable estimation of natural sinks and sources of CO2 , it is necessary
to model C/N dynamics by taking into account the nitrogen supplies in biospheric
reservoirs. In other words, the prediction of natural disasters requires details of the
factors involved in phytocenosis evolution with consideration of the natural and
anthropogenic disturbances introduced and subsequent eects on nearby areas. The

doubtless complexity of this problem implies that any existing GCC models that
disregard at the very least the basic forms of vegetation dynamics cannot makeÐlet
alone claimÐreliable conclusions about future climate change. The growing com-
plexity of global models observed earlier and their resulting instability also require
development of new non-traditional methods of modeling. A possible way of simul-
taneous simpli®cation and speci®cation of global models is a reasonable spatial
representation of NSS elements. It can be realized by using the traditional landscape
structure of the land.
The increasing number of natural disasters observed in recent decades is directly
connected with energy production globally as the main reason for enhanced emis-
sions of GHGs to the atmosphere. In this regard, detection of anthropogenic climate
change requires introduction of special climatic indicators capable of sensing the
approach of extreme SAT changes (Grigoryev and Kondratyev, 2001a, b). As for
the anthropogenic enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse eect, at present it
constitutes 2 W m 2 , whereas other energy ¯uxes that determine climate formation
are about 1.5±2 orders of magnitude greater, which, of course, seriously complicates
recognition of the ``greenhouse signal'' in climate change, bearing in mind that
the numerical modeling of global climate is at an early stage of its development.
Even if we assume the greenhouse-warming hypothesis, it turns out that in many
global regions the warming will positively aect agricultural productivity. Therefore,
the correlation between possible increase in average planetary temperature and
natural disasters is ambiguous and needs to consider the special features of the
region.
3.1.5 Catalog of biospheric sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide circulates in the environment between its reservoirs, which are listed
in Table 3.1. In general, the diverse compounds of carbon continuously form, change,
decompose, and from all this diversity, natural and anthropogenic CO2 ¯uxes are
formed in the processes of respiration and decomposition of vegetation and humus,
the burning of carbon-containing substances, rock weathering, etc. Some of the CO2
dissolves in the World Ocean releasing carbonic acid and the products of its dis-
sociation. The content of carbon in its reservoirs and estimates of its ¯uxes between
them are the most important problems facing global CO2 cycle analysis. Numerous
schemes of this cycle, drawn from analysis of global interactions of living organisms
and their physical and chemical media, as well as estimates of carbon supplies
accumulated during the historical period serve as the basis for predictions of the
dynamics of CO2 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, which has been the subject
of vehement disputes in connection with assessments of the role of CO2 in climate
warming.
An important stage in understanding the processes of CO2 exchange between
biospheric reservoirs is study of the laws of the development of various ecosystems in
pre-industrial epochs, when there was little human involvement. Natural carbon
¯uxes between the atmosphere, oceans, land ecosystems, and inland water bodies
Table 3.1. Global carbon reservoirs.
Reservoir Amount of carbon

(GtC)
Atmosphere 720
World Ocean 38,400

Total inorganic carbon 37,400
Surface layer 670
Deep layers 36,730
Total organic carbon 1,000
Lithosphere
Carbonate sedimentary rocks >60,000,000
Kerogens 15,000,000
Land biosphere 2,000

Living biomass 600±1,000
Dead biomass 1,200
Biosphere of inland waters 1±2
Burnt fuel 4,130

Coal 3,510
Oil 230
Natural gas 140
Others (peat, etc.) 250
are strongly variable both in space and in time (from year to year and seasonally).
Analyses of ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic have reliably shown
variations of atmospheric CO2 in the past. Eight thousand years ago the CO2
concentration in the atmosphere constituted 200 ppmv. By the beginning of the
pre-industrial epoch this quantity varied between 275 ppmv and 285 ppmv
(10 ppmv). By 1985 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reached
345 ppmv. But, in 1998 it was already 366 ppmv±367 ppmv (Bolin and Sukumar,
2000). The total amount of carbon in atmospheric CO2 is estimated today at about
700 billion tC. The natural CO2 budget is estimated at 150 billion tC emitted
annually in the processes of respiration and decomposition and assimilated in photo-
synthesis both on land and in the ocean, as well as by CO2 dissolving in the World
Ocean.
To analyze the dynamics of CO2 in the biosphere, it is important to take into
account the maximum possible number of its reservoirs and ¯uxes as well as their
spatial distribution. It is in this that numerous global models of the carbon cycle
dier. The present level of these studies does not allow us to answer the principal
question as to how extensive is information in the database about the supplies and
¯uxes of carbon. Therefore, many authors analyzing the dynamic characteristics
of the global CO2 cycle rather arbitrarily utilize fragmentary information from
databases on the distribution of the carbon sinks and sources.
A key component of the global CO2 cycle is its anthropogenic emissions to
the environment. The principal problem studied by most investigators consists in
assessing the biospheric ability to neutralize excess amounts of CO2 . It is here that all
predictions of the consequences of the greenhouse eect are wide open to criticism.
All models of the global CO2 cycle are based on scenarios that describe the dynamics
of extraction and burning of fossil fuels. Hence, models of the energy±economy
system require detailed parameterization of the geopolitical structure of the world.
So far, among the most widely used models of this type is one developed by IIASA, in
which the globe is divided into nine regions diering in the level of per capita energy
consumption and other parameters. The regional structure is shown in Table 3.2.
With this scenario of socio-economic structure we can attribute to it the development
strategies of each region and assume possible consequences of future behavior of
individual regions for the environment. Most similar scenarios use such an indicator
as the rate of acceleration of energy consumption. This parameter varies from 0.2%
to 1.5% per year. Various combinations are considered when choosing a source of
energy among oil, gas, nuclear and solar energy, hydroelectric power stations, and
solid waste burning. Naturally, we have to take into account the demographic,
technical, political, and macro-economic factors. The size of population in most
scenarios is assumed to grow at a rate that would reach by 2025 and 2075 the levels
Table 3.2. Characteristics of the growth of economic effectiveness and population dynamics in
different regions of the world according to the IIASA scenario. From Oostenrijk et al. (2006).
Region P Population
(millions)
2025 2050 2075
Australia and Japan 2.3 160 150 150
Africa 1.6 1,600 2,200 2,700
Canada and Europe 1.6 520 540 540
China 1.9 1,600 1,700 1,700
Latin America 1.9 720 850 900
Russia and C.I.S. countries 1.3 470 500 510
Middle Asia 1.9 280 360 410
U.S.A. 1.2 290 290 290
South-East Asia 1.8 2,600 3,100 3,400
P annual increase in labor productivity (%).

of 7.9 and 10.5 billion people, respectively. If all these assumptions in the scenario are
assumed to be true, we can calculate the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other
GHGs. Then, it would be necessary to determine the total temperature impact DTS of
these gases (Mintzer, 1987).
The anthropogenic constituent in the global CO2 cycle causes changes in the
reservoirs of the CO2 sink. Maximum changes are connected with urbanization,
deformed structures of soil±plant communities, and hydrospheric pollution. The
rates of change in forest masses for pasture and cultivated lands are estimated at
0.05 10 6 km 2 yr 1 . Dense tropical forests are transformed into plantations at a rate
of 10 5 km 2 yr 1 . This process increases the rate of deserti®cation (5 10 4 km 2 yr 1 ),
which increases the amount of emitted carbon (0.1 GtC yr 1 ).
The general pattern of the present level of atmospheric CO2 ¯uxes has been well
studied. Due to the burning of solid and liquid fuels, about 20 10 6 tCO2 are emitted
every year (1 : 1 ratio). Burning of gas fuel contributes about 4.5 10 6 tCO2 to the
atmosphere. The contribution of the cement industry is estimated at 750 10 6 tCO2 .
Individual regions and countries contribute to these ¯uxes rather non-uniformly.
Biomass burning in the tropics is one of the main sources of the input of minor
gas components and aerosol particles to the troposphere. The share of the tropics is
about 40% of the global land area and about 60% of global primary productivity.
The types of vegetation in the tropics are much more diverse than other regions.
However, at present, tropical forests and savannahs are being transformed into
agricultural land and pasture at a rate of about 1% per year. This transformation
is mainly caused by biomass burning which strongly aects the chemical composition
of the atmosphere and, hence, climate.
As shown from analysis of satellite data, the share of the tropics constitutes about
70% of the biomass burnt, about half being concentrated in Africa, with most
biomass burning in the annual course (in the dry season) observed north of the
equator. Savannahs and forests in the tropics also emit to the atmosphere a large
number of biogenic compounds. In connection with widely spread ®res in savannahs
and their strong impact on the environment, Nielsen (1999) analyzed special features
of the spatiotemporal distribution of ®res in the region (central Africa) during the ®eld
experiment EXPRESSO (Experiment for Regional Sources and Sinks of Oxidants),
using data from AVHRR carried onboard NOAA meteorological satellites in the dry
seasons from November 1994 to December 1997. Fire variability can be described as:
(1) Fire probability at a given point.

(2) Probability of repeated ®res at a given point during a certain time period.
(3) The spatial extent and the temperature reached by savannah ®res.
The processing of satellite imagery has shown that ®res are not accidental.
Fire probability increases, for instance, with ®res in the neighborhood of the point
considered. Combined analysis of the characteristics of the spatiotemporal variability
of ®res has made it possible to substantiate 12 typical regimes for ®res as well as the
dependence of special features of ®res on those of the vegetation cover. Though there
is no doubt that, as a rule, savannah ®res are caused by humans and not by other
factors, speci®c causes of ®res as a function of human activity remain unclear. From
the viewpoint of temporal variability, it is expedient to classify ®res relative to the
beginning of the ®re season, their development rate, and the duration of the ®re
season. In this context, the following types of ®res can be identi®ed: fast, late, or long.
The contribution of savannah ®res exceeds 40% of the global level of biomass
burning as a result of which the atmosphere receives minor gas components, such as
non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, methane, etc., as well as aerosols.
According to available estimates for the period 1975±1980, 40%±70% of savannahs
were burnt every year, about 6% of such ®res took place in Africa. In 1990 about
2 10 9 t of vegetable biomass were burnt, and as a result 145 TgCO got into the
atmosphere, which constituted about 30% of anthropogenic CO emissions.
Forest ®res have serious impacts on the global carbon cycle. Though forest ®res
can occur naturally (e.g., lightning strikes), nevertheless, human contribution to their
occurrence is constantly growing. A forest ®re due to a lightning strike is only
possible if it strikes standing wood or, in the case of open woodland, if it strikes
soil covered with moss or litter. The electrical resistance of standing wood is known to
be almost 100 times greater than that of growing trees; therefore, when lightning
strikes a living tree, there is little evidence of the tree being charred. Therefore,
monitoring of the ®re danger in forests gives reliable estimates of the probability
lightning-caused forest ®res. A more complicated problem is predicting anthropo-
genic causes for forest ®res. More than 90% of forest ®res known to occur in a 10 km
zone around populated areas are caused by humans. Hence, the ®re load on forests
has a strong correlation with the spatial distribution of population density. Of course,
the intensity and frequency of occurrence of ®res depend on climatic dryness in a
given territory, on forest thickness, and their health. Therefore, to evaluate the role of
a forest in the biogeochemical cycle of chemical compounds, of great importance are
aorestation design, and control of soil erosion and its water balance, which can be
realized by using models of the spatial structure of forests (Baskent and Keles, 2005).
A forest ®re is dangerous not only because it is a source of pollutants for the
atmosphere but also because its consequences are dangerous. Fires change the forest
microclimate; in particular, illumination and heating of the soil increase, and the
hydrological regime of the forest area changes. Moreover, over the scorched territory
of forest ®res the bioproductive ability of biocenoses deteriorates and, hence, the role
of this territory in biogeochemical cycles changes. It is well known that in a region
with a dry climate, ®re-destroyed forests take time to restore naturally, and the area
has to be re-forested. Therefore, it is important to understand the laws of interaction
of forest ®res and the biocenosis of its territory. For instance, ®res in boreal forests
contribute no more than 2% to carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but they
seriously aect chemical processes in the high-latitude troposphere and atmospheric
radiative properties. This can lead to global climatic consequences.
In general, for dierent reasons, biomass burning is a complex anthropogenic
source of the atmospheric pollution and of the global impact on the biosphere as a
whole. Estimates obtained by many authors show that the radiative forcing on
climate determined by aerosols from biomass burning constitute about 1.0 W m 2
(in the case of the pure scattering of aerosols uncertainty in the estimates ranges
between 0.3 W m 2 and 2.2 W m 2 ).
3.1.6 Biospheric resources and the carbon cycle

The dynamics of global carbon dioxide ¯ux is determined by natural and anthro-
pogenic factors. The natural factors form in the process of biospheric evolution, and
their dynamics depends on the interaction between natural ecosystems. The level of
anthropogenic forcing on the global CO2 cycle is determined by the relationship
of natural forces with numerous aspects of humankind development: political,
demographic, cultural, religious, economic, etc. All this diversity of anthropogenic
origin in the present world is limited by the amount of biospheric resources, which
eventually determine these aspects. Estimates of some biospheric resources given by
Kondratyev et al. (2004b) suggest that despite the omnipotence of the human mind,
which seems to believe nature can be destroyed with impunity, resources are limited
by many circumstances. Humankind contaminates the environment by using mineral
resources or by changing one ecosystem for another. In both cases humankind sooner
or later enters a con¯ict with nature, and reaches the limiting factors in the global
dynamics of destruction: depletion of resources, worsening of living conditions, etc.
A human ( just like other elements in nature), when forming his or her environ-
ment, is mainly interested in the sources of material production: mineral resources.
With growing scienti®c±technical progress the rate of mineral resource consumption
is constantly increasing, and will approach sooner or later a critical level. Though the
late 20th and early 21st centuries have been characterized by a broad spectrum of
mineral deposits for industrial purposes, nevertheless, no serious alternative to oil,
coal, and gas has yet been found. The increase in energy resource consumption is
con®ned by the fact that almost half of known fuel resources used by humankind
(90 billion t) was consumed during the last 25±30 years.
By the end of the 20th century about 200 billion t of mineral deposits had been
extracted. There are no reliable estimates of the global supplies of mineral resources.
Therefore, the scenarios of carbon emissions to the atmosphere used by many authors
should be considered conditional and disputable (Watson et al., 2000; Houghton et
al., 2001). Nevertheless, there are undisputable relationships between the volumes of
emitted CO2 and national production. This relationship diers by a factor of 30
between developing and developed countries, which means considerable constraint
should be used when working out an optimal strategy for formation of the pro®le of
the global curve of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere.
The World Ocean is a poorly mustered source of mineral resources. Along with
maximizing access to seafood products, humankind is gradually mastering ways of
mining the mineral fuel supplies lying beneath the sea¯oor and, especially those on
marginal shelves. Oil, gas, and coal are already being extracted in large volumes from
marine deposits, but of course there exist economic and technical limitations. On the
whole, from preliminary estimates of the 180 oil and gas-bearing basins discovered by
geologists in the World Ocean, the potential supplies of oil and gas can be estimated,
respectively, at 300 10 9 m 3 and 150 10 12 m 3 .
Human activity in changing the land cover is one of the many factors of the
anthropogenic forcing on global carbon cycle dynamics that is dicult to assess.
During the 20th century, humankind strongly aected the global distribution of
vegetation, an important sink for atmospheric CO2 . This was caused by human
engineering, construction, and mining activity, creation of new types of land forma-
tions, biological re-cultivation, etc. Especially dangerous for the environment are the
processes of deforestation and deserti®cation. For instance, Watson et al. (2000)
stated that realization of the IPCC scenario for aorestation and re-forestation by
the year 2050 will mean an additional 60 GtC±87 GtC (70% tropical forests, 25%
temperate-zone forests, 5% boreal forests) will be removed from the atmosphere. An
important parameter of this scenario is the rate of tree growth. For instance, if a
forest grows at a rate of 3 tC ha 1 yr 1 , then 1 tC can be attributed to the eect of
atmospheric CO2 assimilation. In general, the control of land biocenoses can mark-
edly aect the biogeochemical carbon cycle. It is important to discover whether this
control was planned or spontaneous. In any event, humans create anthropogenic
landscapes on the Earth surface to improve their habitat. The appearance of arti®cial
seas, recreation zones, cities, and other anthropogenic landscapes reduces the ability
of land cover to evolve naturally. In other words, the human activity by changing
landscapes can strongly aect the dynamics of atmospheric CO2 .
The main source of changing land cover is agricultural activity. The impact of
agricultural activity on anthropogenic landscape formation propagates to other
zones of the biosphere where the processes of transformation of inorganic masses
intensify food production. The ability of humankind to aect the global carbon cycle
has its limits here as well. But, nobody knows the limit to the consequences of these
transformations. To understand the level of such trends, note that, according to
chronicles of the late 16th±early 17th centuries, the population density in Europe
was 1±2 people per square kilometer, 4 years later the population density increased by
more than a factor of 50. During this time period forested areas decreased by a factor
of 3, being substituted mainly by agriculture. This trend continues into the 21st
century because, on the whole, agricultural activity improves the lot of human
beings, though there is a negative side to it. To improve the conditions for
agriculture, changes are introduced in geological, geochemical, and hydrogeological
processes, and this eventually leads to irreversible changes in the global biogeochem-
ical cycles of chemical elements. These changes include such processes as wind and
water erosion of soils, leaching of the fertile soil layer and its transport to the World
Ocean.
3.1.7 Eutrophication and greenhouse cycling

Eutrophication is caused by the growth in the ecosystem of chemical nutrients, with
nitrogen and phosphorus being typical representatives. In general, eutrophication
is followed by intensive growth of algae and intensive decomposition, which leads
to prevalence of weeds and deterioration of the quality of water. In principle,
eutrophication can take place for both natural and anthropogenic reasons. Human-
kind, as a result of the development of agriculture, has managed to increase the rate
of cycling, for instance, of phosphorus in the biosphere by four-fold.
Anthropogenic activity increases the ¯ux of nitrogen to rivers, lakes, and
estuaries provoking eutrophication. The processes of nitri®cation and denitri®cation
in natural waters and bottom sediments transform dissolved inorganic nitrogen into
nitrogen gas and nitrous oxide resulting in their entering the atmosphere, where they
participate in global biogeochemical cycles. In this process estuaries play an impor-
tant role where, along with river run-o and shore spillway, go large amounts of
nitrogen and organic carbon, natural sources of CH4 . On the whole, the process
of eutrophication is but one element of the complicated system of the processes of
transformation of energy and matter in the biosphere (Galbraith et al., 2006).
Eutrophication reduces the O2 content and increases the presence of NH 4 in
freshwater. These changes can aect the processes of transformation of carbon and
nitrogen giving CH4 and N2 O, which are emitted to the atmosphere. Liikanen and
Martikainen (2003) studied these processes in Finland and showed that in the case of
a eutrophicated lake the bottom sediment can emit up to 7.9 mmol m 2 da 1 of CH4
and 7.6 mmol m 2 da 1 of N2 O, with oxygen being a key factor in the regulation of
these ¯uxes through NO 3 formation.
By the character of their ecological state, water systems can be divided into ®ve
basic categories, the consideration of which in the GMNSS makes it possible to raise
the accuracy of evaluation of the greenhouse eect, which was not even discussed in
IPCC (2007):
. Oligotrophic water. This is a relatively pure water basin with a small amount of
organic matter or bottom sediment and low biological productivity because of
limited biogenic elements.
. Mesotrophic water. A water basin with a moderate amount of nutrients
(0.3 mgN L 1 ±0.65 mgN L 1 ; 0.01 mgP L 1 ±0.03 mgP L 1 ) and middling
biological productivity.
. Eutrophic water. A water basin with a very high content of nutrients and
increased biological productivity (75 gC m 2 yr 1 ±750 gC m 2 yr 1 ). Some
elements of the trophic pyramid are suppressed for lack of oxygen.
. Hypereutrophic water. Heavily polluted and highly productive water close to
the state of wetland water. Many living elements of the ecosystem are at the
point of extinction. The rate of CH4 emission reaches 10 mmol m 2 da 1 ±
46 mmol m 2 da 1 .
. Dystrophic water. As a rule, these are shallow-water basins with a small content
of nutrients and oxygen, with the characteristic large content of dissolved organic
matter and increased acidity.
3.1.8 A new mechanism for carbon dioxide loss in the geosphere

The complexity of the global cycle of carbon, one of the important elements of
the biogeochemical processes on planet Earth, is determined by the variety of its
reservoirs and ¯uxes, many of which are often disregarded when evaluating the
greenhouse eect of CO2 . Barenbaum (2002) was perhaps the ®rst to describe the
complete scheme of the carbon cycle in nature. This scheme re¯ects the carbon ¯ux
reaching the Earth extraterrestrially and selects three main cycles for carbon circula-
tion: one biospheric and two lithospheric (i.e., fast and slow). The biospheric (the
most thoroughly studied) carbon cycle includes the atmosphere, living substances, the
World Ocean, and soils. The lithospheric carbon cycle covers the rocks of the Earth's
crust and upper mantle. Detailing the carbon cycle in this way enables us to take into
account the dierence in timescales between the various sub-cycles of carbon. If the
characteristic time of the biospheric cycle of carbon is 600 10 3 years, the time spent
by the carbon cycle in the Earth's crust and mantle constitutes (1.0±1.1) 10 6 and 10 9
years, respectively.
Mobile carbon in the lithosphere circulates at a rate of 7 10 16 g yr 1 . Apart from
mobile carbon, the lithosphere contains slow-moving carbon combined in carbonates
or in sedimentary rock, from which it moves to the Earth's bowels and, as far as
current timescales are concerned, is eectively removed from the cycle. Barenbaum
(2004) connected these movements of carbon with the process of formation of oil and
gas deposits, substantiating the mechanism of multiple transport of mobile carbon
through the Earth surface in the process of the meteogenic water cycle. Another
important point is that if carbon circulates mainly in its oxidized form of CO2 , under
the surface it will be in its restored form (CH4 ). Consideration of this fact in the
global model of the carbon cycle by introducing the processes of Earth degassing
makes the scheme in Figure 3.3 more correct.
3.2 CONCEPTUAL SCHEME FOR A MODEL OF THE GLOBAL

BIOGEOCHEMICAL CARBON CYCLE
The reliability of assessment of the role of CO2 in the greenhouse eect depends on
detailed consideration in the models of the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon and
on the accuracy of estimates about its characteristics. Diagrams showing the global
cycle of carbon in the form of CO2 are few and far between. We shall consider some
of them in order to analyze them and understand the limits to such a detailed
description of carbon cycle elements, beyond which it is impossible to get further
knowledge of this cycle and, hence, of the CO2 -induced greenhouse eect. Note that
all studied diagrams of the global cycle of CO2 are divided into two classes: point
(globally averaged) and spatial (locally averaged). All these diagrams divide the
biosphere into the atmosphere, oceans, and land ecosystems. Many diagrams divide
carbon into organic and inorganic forms. As a rule, the time step used to average all
processes and carbon reservoirs is assumed to be equal to one year, and therefore
the atmospheric reservoir is considered uniformly mixed (point). The World Ocean
and land ecosystems are thoroughly detailed. This detailing, though, is limited by
available databases about the reservoirs of carbon. As a rule, the ®nal results of
studies of the diagrams are either methodical in character or the CO2 concentration in
the atmosphere is predicted within a certain scenario of anthropogenic activity.
Sec. 3.2] 3.2 Conceptual scheme for a model of the global biogeochemical carbon cycle 161
An idea of the size of carbon supplies in reservoirs is schematically shown in

Figure 3.1, as proposed in the work of Bolin and Sukumar (2000). The quantities in
this scheme dier widely from the data of other authors (Fierer et al., 2003;
Siegenthaler and Sarmiento, 1993). Figure 3.1 summarizes some of the published
estimates. Nevertheless, their ratio and order of magnitude coincide in most cases. As
can be seen, the maximum supply of carbon is concentrated in the World Ocean. The
minimum is in the atmosphere.
The natural processes determining the dynamics of the GCC are characterized by
various timescales. Some, such as burying dead organic matter at the bottom of the
oceans, have characteristic timescales of the order of hundreds and thousands of
years. Other processes (e.g., the biological carbon cycle on land) have a period of
several tens of years. Therefore, consideration of the ratio of timescales in the bio-
spheric carbon cycle is an important stage of studies of the dynamics of CO2 content
in the atmosphere. Here it is also important to take into account the fact that the
characteristic time of complete mixing of the atmosphere is from several months to
2 years. During a year, according to results from routine measurements of CO2
concentration at dierent monitoring stations, it varies widely. The dierence
between maximum and minimum values of atmospheric CO2 concentration changes
from 1 ppm at the South Pole to 15 ppm at high latitudes of the Northern Hemi-
sphere. This spatial heterogeneity is determined by the large seasonally photosynthe-
sizing vegetation communities present in the Northern Hemisphere. Boden et al.
(1994) give some estimates of the latitudinal distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The increased content of CO2 in the NH atmosphere is mainly connected with the
impact of human activity through direct CO2 emissions and due to the impact on
vegetation cover. Almost 90% of all carbon emissions in organic fuel burning fall in
the zone between 30 N and 60 N. From the data of Boden et al. (1994) it follows that
conceptual schemes of the global biogeochemical CO2 cycle should take into account
the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric processes, too.
An important constituent of most conceptual schemes of the GCC is the
structure of carbon ¯uxes in the World Ocean. As follows from Table 3.1, there is
a certain informational possibility in the oceans to select several vertical layers and to
distinguish the spatial heterogeneities in the structure of the ocean surface. Most
authors consider the vertical structure of the oceans as two or three layers covering
the photic layer and deep ocean. In the photic layer, the layers above and below the
thermocline can be distinguished. The spatial heterogeneity of the oceans is expressed
by upwellings and latitudinal zones with dierent rates and directions of CO2
exchange between the oceans and the atmosphere. More detailed GCC schemes take
into account heterogeneities in the carbonate system of the oceans, which makes it
possible to considerably improve the accuracy of the respective models. Two widely
used schemes of this type are given in the work of Kondratyev et al. (2003b).
The role of the World Ocean in the global cycle of CO2 is mainly manifested
through the process of its exchange at the atmosphere±ocean boundary. The intensity
of ocean±atmosphere gas exchange is determined by the dynamic and diusive behav-
ior of the turbulent layers of water and air near the interface. Here numerous physical
schemes appear which re¯ect the situations of wave formation, their collapse, and the
formation of foam and various ®lms. As a result, carbon dioxide either dissolves in
the ocean providing the input of CO2 needed for photosynthesis or is emitted from
the ocean to the atmosphere. This binary situation at the air±water boundary is
explained by the dierent partial pressures of CO2 in the atmosphere and CO2
dissolved in water. In fact, this directed transport of CO2 at the atmosphere±ocean
boundary is more complicated. Its study requires expensive ®eld experiments and a
detailed classi®cation both of synoptic and physico-geographic situations on the
ocean surface. In programs of GCC study the emphasis is placed on the role of land
ecosystems in GCC utilization (Houghton et al., 2001). In the process of photosynth-
esis plants assimilate carbon dioxide and, in contrast, the decomposition of dead
plants gives o carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Thus, in the land biosphere
continuous CO2 exchange takes place between living and dead organic matter and
the atmosphere. There are a multitude of conceptual diagrams which formalize this
exchange and serve as the basis for global models of the carbon cycle. Clearly, the
accuracy of estimates of carbon ¯uxes in the land biosphere is a function of detailed
discretization of the types of soil±plant formations and the accuracy of biocenotic
process parameterization. In this connection, global maps of vegetation and soils
have been charted, their areas have been evaluated, many parameters of the bio-
logical production of land ecosystems have been determined, data on the vital activity
of soil micro-organisms have been accumulated, and technologies for monitoring
terrestrial landscapes have been worked out. Unfortunately, there are no balanced
estimates of the limits to detailing soil±plant formations which would provide the
required accuracy for estimating carbon ¯uxes. To solve this problem, a global model
of carbon ¯ux re¯ecting the hierarchy of signi®cant (according to expert estimates)
biospheric elements and processes of carbon transportation needs to be found. The
list of carbon ¯uxes in this model is given and characterized in Table 3.3. Simulation
experiments using this model facilitate carrying out comparative assessments of the
consequences of complication of its various elements and in this way gradually
approach the level of optimal spatial discretization.
GCC models have been developed by many authors (Chen et al., 2000; Nitu et
al., 2004; Krapivin, 2000c; Tarko, 2005). Most models used data for the pre-industrial
period and predicted CO2 concentration for the next decade. For instance,
Demirchian et al. (2002) discovered the linear dependence of the anthropogenic part
of CO2 concentration Ka Pa 270 (ppm) on the size of population G (billion)
by reducing the formula to its simplest form, Ka 15G. The G can be calculated
using one of the many demographic models (Logofet, 1993, 2002; McVean, 2003).
Demirchian et al. (2002) proposed an approach that reduced the formula to its
simplest form, G a1 a2 arctgt t0 =a3 , where ai and t0 are functions of the
prognostic estimate of global population size in 2100.
In these models the increase in the number of factors considered is clearly
observed, as is the respective increasing adequacy that accompanies them. One of
the ®rst and suciently complete models of the global CO2 cycle is the model
proposed by Bjorkstrom (1979) which takes into account the dynamic interaction
between carbon reservoirs in the biosphere and ¯uxes between them. For the ®rst
time, a unit for the World Ocean was realistically represented. In this unit the ocean is
Sec. 3.2] 3.2 Conceptual scheme for a model of the global biogeochemical carbon cycle 163
Table 3.3. Reservoirs and ¯uxes of carbon as CO2 in the biosphere in a simulation model of the
global biogeochemical cycle of carbon dioxide as shown in Figure 3.6.
CO2 reservoirs and ¯uxes Identi®er Average estimate of the

in the reservoir (10 9 t) and
model ¯ux (10 9 t/yr)
Carbon
Atmosphere CA 650±750
Photic layer of the ocean CU 580±1,020
Deep layers of the ocean CL 34,500±37,890
Soil humus CS 1,500±3,000
Emission due to burning

Vegetation HC
8 6.9
Fossil fuel HC
1 3.6
Desorption HC
2 97.08
Sorption HC
3 100
Rock weathering HC
4 0.04
Volcanic emanations HC
5 2.7
Assimilation by land vegetation HC

6 224.4
Respiration
Plants HC
7 50±59.3
People HC
10 0.7
Animals HC
11 4.1
Emission
Decomposed soil humus HC
9 139.5
Plant roots HC
15 56.1
Vital functions
Population HC
12 0.3
Animals HC
13 3.1
Vegetation decay HC
14 31.5±50
Sedimentation to bottom deposits HC

16 0.1±0.2
Solution of marine sediments HC

17 0.1
Decomposition of detritus
Photic layer HC
22 35
Deep layers of the ocean HC
18 5
Uplifting with deep waters HC

19 45
(continued)
Table 3.3 (cont.)
CO2 reservoirs and ¯uxes Identi®er Average estimate of the

in the reservoir (10 9 t) and
model ¯ux (10 9 t/yr)
Lowering with surface waters and due to HC

20 40
gravitational sedimentation
Photosynthesis HC
21 69
Underground sink HC
23 0.5
Surface sink HC
24 0.5-0.6
Breathing of living organisms in the ocean HC

25 25
Geospheric sink of carbon HBG 70
Geospheric source of carbon HGB 17
considered as a multi-layer composition of uniformly mixed reservoirs, the CO2

exchange between them being described by linear laws. Models of the type of unit
have been analyzed by many authors, which has provided the stimulus for successful
division of the Earth's biogeosystem into homogeneous compartments and the crea-
tion of respective box models. Using the property of carbon to reside long in the
atmosphere, which allows the atmosphere to be presented in the form of a point
model, Bacastow (1981) developed a global four-reservoir model which made it
possible to accurately approximate the dynamics of CO2 exchange between Northern
and Southern Hemispheres.
Each GCC model diers in the set of assumptions made and therefore concen-
trates on dierent eects. For instance, a simple numerical model of the gas exchange
at the ocean±atmosphere boundary in the case of wind-driven roughness of the sea at
wind speeds of 7 m s 1 makes it possible to formulate, in the global model, a unit to
calculate the persistent CO2 ¯ux between the water surface and the atmosphere. This
can be exempli®ed by models of the ocean carbonate system described by many
authors. Also, there are other models of the CO2 cycle in natural systems (Riedo
et al., 2000; Zonneveld, 1998).
All models of the CO2 cycle need improvement in the way they detail the
spatial distribution of soil±plant formations and in the way they specify exchange
processes in the ocean and at the atmosphere±ocean boundary. Accurate
parameterizations of all studied elements of the biogeochemical carbon cycle should
be synthesized into a single system. Such an attempt was made in the block scheme of
the model shown in Figure 3.6. The main sources of CO2 are the day-to-day activity
of land and marine animals, photochemical reactions, decomposition of dead organic
Sec. 3.3] 3.3 Carbon exchange processes in the atmosphere±ocean system 165
Figure 3.6. A block diagram of the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon on Earth. Carbon
reservoirs and ¯uxes are described in Table 3.3.
matter, and anthropogenic activity. The time it takes CO2 to migrate to the upper
layers of the atmosphere is considered to be substantially less than the model's time
step.
3.3 CARBON EXCHANGE PROCESSES IN THE ATMOSPHERE±

OCEAN SYSTEM
3.3.1 World Ocean and carbon cycle

Knowledge of the exchange processes between the atmosphere and the ocean is very
important in assessing the greenhouse property of CO2 . The intensive gas exchange
between the ocean and the atmosphere (90 GtC yr 1 ) rapidly equalizes CO2 con-
centrations in the atmosphere and the surface layers of seawater (Cosca et al., 2003).
The concentration of total dissolved inorganic carbon increases at depths below

300 m, exceeding substantially the equilibrium concentration at the ocean surface.
Two processes determine the increased concentration of inorganic carbon within the
ocean: the solubility pump and the biological pump (Grebmeier et al., 2003). The
ecient functioning of the solubility pump depends on the special features involved
in thermohaline circulation as well as on spatiotemporal variations in ocean ventila-
tion. Biological pump functioning is controlled by phytoplankton photosynthesis and
decreases CO2 concentration down to 150 ppm±200 ppm.
There are four ways in which the biological ®xation of carbon can aect
atmosphere±ocean CO2 exchange:
. change of the biogenic composition of the ocean connected with removal or input
of elements that can limit primary production;
. use of excess biogenic elements in areas with a low content of chlorophyll;
. participation of speci®c organisms in changing the ratio between organic and
inorganic carbon; and
. change in the species composition of organisms which brings about the transport
of carbon to deep layers of the ocean.
In most models of the global CO2 cycle the relationship between the partial
pressure of CO2 dissolved in water ( pc ) and the general concentration CU of
inorganic carbon in surface waters is calculated based on the buer coecient:
1
pc pc;0 CU;0 CU CU;0 =pc;0 ;
where the ``0'' index refers to the pre-industrial period. However, numerous
observations show that using this coecient when calculating ¯uxes H C 2 and H 3
C
will only give rough estimates if the eect of many other factors is not taken into
account.
One of the ®rst attempts to consider the spatial heterogeneity of the World Ocean
and to simulate the impact of temperature gradients on CO2 exchange between the
upper layer of the ocean and the atmosphere was made by Bjorkstrom (1979). The
idea to divide the World Ocean basins into two parts corresponding to warm and cold
waters was later developed by numerous authors (e.g., Nefedova and Tarko, 1993).
The most complete study of the physical mechanisms of CO2 transport under
dierent conditions of the water±air interface was carried out by Alekseev et al.
(1992). Here for the ®rst time CO2 ¯uxes were measured in detail and their depen-
dence on parameters of the state of the interface in the atmosphere±ocean system
were analyzed, taking into account wind±wave mixing, foam formation on the water
surface, wave collapse, and pollution. Parametric descriptions of the process involved
in ocean±atmosphere gas exchange were proposed at each stage of the changing
conditions in the water±air interface. For instance, it was shown that as roughness
and foam formation increase, the rate of gas exchange grows considerably. For
example, with a 5 cm thick foam layer the rate of gas exchange exceeds the gas
exchange through a free surface (i.e., one without foam) by 2.4 times. This fact is
important for understanding the characteristics of gas exchange in inshore zones
and in areas of heavy storms where foam bands are several centimeters thick. The
presence of surface active substances (SASs) in the upper layer of the ocean is also of
interest. When SASs reach about 7.8 10 4 % (volume), other conditions being equal,
the rate of gas exchange reduces to 60%. However, where there is foam formation
this eect decreases substantially.
On the whole, in the World Ocean the estimates of CO2 ¯ux between the
atmosphere and the upper layer of the ocean vary between 16 mol m 2 yr 1 and
1,250 mol m 2 yr 1 . Such a vast variability means that any global model of the CO2
biogeochemical cycle needs to consider each individual feature in detail.
Under normal conditions the hydrosphere and atmosphere are in equilibrium
with respect to CO2 exchange, which is broken by ¯uctuations intemperature, ocean
surface level, vertical circulation regime, etc. The amount of CO2 assimilated and
emitted in the process of exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere constitutes
55.6 10 9 tC yr 1 . Algae assimilate 16.7 10 9 tC yr 1 from the atmosphere. These
values are non-uniformly distributed over the water surface and vary strongly in
time. For example, during the period 1980±1989 the ¯ux of carbon between the ocean
and the atmosphere varied from 1.9 PgG yr 1 to 2.9 PgG yr 1 . CO2 exchange is
characterized well by the Arctic Ocean, where low temperatures determine the high
absolute content of CO2 dissolved in the surface layer in any season. On average,
in summer, Arctic waters assimilate CO2 and emit O2 to the atmosphere, and in
winter, in contrast, they emit CO2 and assimilate O2 . This clearly expressed seasonal
change reduces in the basins of North Atlantic seas where the decrease in ice cover,
increase in the period of photosynthetic activity, and the existing fall±winter vertical
convection lead to gas exchange with the atmosphere intensifying toward prevalence
of the H C 3 ¯ux. Of the amount of CO2 assimilated from the atmosphere, carbon
constitutes 0.18 10 9 tC yr 1 . Compared with total assimilation of CO2 by the World
Ocean estimated at 5.2 10 9 tC yr 1 ±6.6 10 9 tC yr 1 , the contribution of Arctic water
basins to the removal of excess carbonic acid from the atmosphere is small (Table
3.4). However, this assessment is underestimated, when considering the results
obtained by Kelley (1987). Average estimates show that the partial pressure of
CO2 in the atmosphere exceeds that in Arctic seas by 110 ppm. The CO2 de®cit in
the marine medium happens mainly in the period of the springtime algal bloom and is
estimated at 450 gC m 2 . This means that the CO2 ¯ux from the atmosphere to the
marine medium can vary from 1.5 gC m 2 da 1 to 4.0 gC m 2 da 1 . This assessment
changes considerably as a function of longitude. For instance, the Norwegian Sea has
a de®cit in CO2 partial pressure between 20 ppm and 50 ppm. For the Bering Sea,
DpCO2 70 ppm. Between the CO2 content in seawater and its temperature a clear
linear correlation is observed with the proportion coecient of 10 ppm CO2 / C.
All of this suggests the conclusion that Arctic waters remove carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere. Therefore, once again a detailed study of this process is needed
before a global model of carbon cycle can be speci®ed, thereby improving the
accuracy of estimation of the greenhouse eect due to emissions of anthropogenic
CO2 .
Table 3.4. Annual budget of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere for water bodies of the Arctic
Basin and northern seas (10 6 tC/yr).
Region of the Summer Winter Year

ocean
Assimila- Emission Balance Assimila- Emission Balance
tion tion
Arctic basin 4.4 0.0 4.4 Ð Ð Ð 4.4
Arctic seas
East Siberian 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.8
Kara 11.4 2.4 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.8
Laptev 2.4 3.6 1.2 0.0 2.9 2.9 4.1
Chukchi 11.2 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 10.6
Total 26.0 8.1 17.9 0.0 4.4 4.4 13.5
North Atlantic
seas
Barents 71.9 0.0 71.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.9
Greenland 19.1 0.0 19.1 8.7 0.0 +8.7 27.8
Norwegian 64.8 0.0 64.8 0.0 6.0 +6.0 5.8
Total 155.8 0.0 155.8 8.7 6.0 +2.7 158.5
Arctic Ocean 186.2 8.1 178.1 8.7 10.4 1.7 176.4

on the whole
On the whole, when synthesizing a global model of the CO2 biogeochemical

cycle, the unit to simulate that part of the cycle spent in the ocean must describe
how the ocean carbonate system works. Alekseev et al. (1992), analyzing the system
CO2 ±HCO3 ±CO 23 and the distribution of pH values in ocean waters, discovered that
more than 80% of dissolved carbon dioxide is in the form of hydrocarbonate ion of
HCO3 . This means that when synthesizing a model of the ocean carbonate system
only the ®rst stage of the dissociation of carbonic acid can be reliably considered. As a
result, the H C
3 ¯ux of CO2 dissolved in the upper layer of the ocean can be calculated
by the formula
p
HC3 TL pa =1 0:5CS ;
where TL is a function of the eect of temperature on CO2 solubility; and CS is

water salinity. Expression of the function has been studied inadequately. There are
just a few experimental estimates (Alekseev et al., 1992). Nevertheless, there have
been many approaches to determination of the direction of CO2 ¯uxes at the atmo-
sphere±ocean border. In the simplest case, ¯uxes H C C
2 and H 3 can be considered
mutually exclusive. That is, a ``valve'' is supposed to exist on the atmosphere±ocean
border, which switches on and o according to the pH parameter. A critical level of
pH is about 8.11. At pH 8.11 the ocean assimilates CO2 , and at pH > 8.11 the ocean
emits CO2 .
On global scales, ¯ux H C 3 prevails in World Ocean regions with cold waters
(northern latitudes, upwelling zones) and ¯ux H C 2 does so in warm waters. The
dynamics of this regime is maintained by reactions in the hydrosphere between CO2
and water resulting in the formation of carbonic acid:
HCO3 H2 O , H2 CO3 OH ;
CO 23 2H2 O , H2 CO3 2OH :
Saltwater contains dissolved carbon dioxide, non-dissociated molecules of H2 CO3 ,

anions of HCO3 , and CO 23 . They all are in equilibrium:
CO2 H2 O , H2 CO3 , HCO 3 H , CO 23 2H :

The equilibrium state between carbonic acid bicarbonate and carbonate ions is
established rapidly. The solution of CO2 and formation of H2 CO3 take place over
a longer period. However, since many authors dispute the availability of H2 CO3 , a
summarized concentration of CO2 and H2 CO3 should be considered by denoting it as
[CO2 ]. Let us introduce some notations to characterize the total concentration of
intermediate components:
X
C CO2 H2 CO3 HCO 3 CO 23 : 3:2
Another characteristic of the hydrosphere that needs to be parameterized is

alkalinity:
A HCO 3 2CO 23 H2 CO3 OH H ; 3:3
where [Ca 2 ] and [H ] are concentrations of ions of calcium and hydrogen, and
[HCO 3 ] and [CO 23 ] are concentrations of bicarbonate and carbonate ions.
Using these notations, let us formulate the equilibrium conditions:
K0 pc CO2 ; HCO 3 K1 CO2 =H ; 3:4
CO 23 K2 HCO 3 =H ; 3:5
Ca 2 Lp H 2 =K1 K2 CO2 ; 3:6
where K0 is the indicator of CO2 solubility ( 250 mmol/L atm at 30 C and
640 mmol/L atm at C); Lp is the solubility indicator for CaCO3 ; K1 and K2 are
the ®rst and second apparent coecients of dissociation of carbonic acid (they
depend on temperature and pressure).
From (3.2)±(3.6) we obtain:
X
C CO2 1 K1 =H K1 K2 =H 2 ;
A CO 23 K1 =H 2K1 K2 =H 2 :
Eriksson (1963), using a dierentiation operator , calculated relative changes in

[CO2 ], [Ca 2 ], pc , and A. Let us denote any of these components as U and taking
DU U=U, we obtain:
Dpc DCO2 DK0 ; 3:7
DCa 2 DLp 2DH DK1 DK2 DCO2 ; 3:8
DSC DCO2 F1 DK1 =F0 a2 DK2 =F0 F2 DH =F0 ; 3:9
DA DCO2 DK1 2a2 DK2 =F2 F3 DH =F2 ; 3:10
where
F 0 1 a1 a2 ; F1 a1 a2 ; F2 a1 2a2 ; F3 a1 4a2 ;
a1 K1 =H ; a2 K1 K2 =H 2 :
Based on relationships (3.7) through (3.10) and taking experimental data into
account, Eriksson (1963) showed that with a 1 C increase in temperature of the upper
layer of the marine medium the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere can grow
by 4.2%±5.8%, and with a 1% decrease in the water volume the partial pressure of
CO2 in the atmosphere grows by 3%, with 1% of carbon dioxide in the water medium
precipitating as CaCO3 . With variations of the equilibrium state in deep layers of the
hydrosphere a 1% output of CO2 in the form of gas is followed by a 1% sediment of
CO2 in the form of CaCO3 . Moreover, variations in the CO2 partial pressure
correlate with changes in the concentration of phosphorus P, so that a decrease of
P in deep layers by 1% leads to an increase of pc by 5.6%.
Eriksson (1963) found that a 1% increase in alkalinity causes a 2.26% decrease in
CO2 partial pressure in the atmosphere and a 98% reduction of total CO2 supply in
the hydrosphere. Under conditions where there is no external input of Ca into the
hydrosphere, a 1% increase in alkalinity causes an increase in the rate of CaCO3
deposition (i.e., total alkalinity decreases by 0.92%). Thus, a 1% increase in water
alkalinity is equivalent to a 0.5 increase in pH.
Equilibrium between various components of the hydrospheric carbonate system
depends on temperature and pressure, a combination of which correlates with pH so
that, at a given temperature and pressure, equilibrium is only a function of
pH lg[H ]. The eect of temperature on pH in the ®rst approximation can be
described by the equation (Ivanov, 1978), DpH 0.0111DT, valid when pH 2 [7.5,
8.4], T 2 1±30 C, and salinity from 10% to 40%. The dependence of pH on pressure
pc follows the dependence, pH dDpc , where, on average, d 0.0254. A more
accurate presentation of this law is given in Table 3.5.
The connection between the equilibrium condition of CO2 exchange and pH on
the atmosphere±ocean border is such that when the CO2 pressure in the atmosphere
Table 3.5. Empirical dependence of pH on atmospheric pressure. From Ivanov (1978).
pH at atmospheric pressure 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3
DpH with pressure increasing by 0.035 0.028 0.023 0.021 0.02

1,000 dbar
reaches 330 10 6 atm, equilibrium occurs at 20 C for pH 8.16 and at 0 C for
pH 8.11. At a lower pH value the ocean will assimilate CO2 , and at a higher pH
it will emit CO2 . Hence, to describe the functions of ¯uxes H C C
2 and H 3 at the
atmosphere±ocean border, the structure of the ocean carbonate system needs to be
thoroughly studied. A simpli®ed description of these ¯uxes is usually based on
comparison of the partial pressures of CO2 in the atmosphere and in the ocean.
According to the data in Alekseev et al. (1992), ¯uxes H C C
2 and H 3 are approximated
C 1=2
well by the function H i ki pa pc , where pa and pc are the partial pressures of
CO2 in the atmosphere and in the ocean, respectively. The partial pressure of CO2 in
the atmosphere at sea level can be calculated with the formula:
18
pa 0:421542 10 MC 273:15 T;
where MC is CO2 mass in tons; and T is the air temperature in C.

According to Bjorkstrom (1979), the functional dependence of pc on parameters
of the ocean carbonate system can be presented in the form pc CO2 =K0 . From the
condition of chemical equilibrium, according to (3.4) and (3.5), it follows that
X
CO2 H C=a;
P
where a H 2 H K1 K1 K2 ; C CU =WU ; and WU is the volume of an
elementary reservoir. Let us denote
KW H OH ; KB H BOH 4 =BOH3 ;

BT BOH3 BOH 4 :
Then we obtain from (3.3):
A KW H 1
KB BT KB H 1
CU H K1 2K1 K2 =aWU H
or

K1 2K1 K2 BT K
A CO2 W H : 3:11
H H 2 1 H =KB H
The solution of this equation relative to [H ] enables us to determine pc as a function

of CU . From the estimates by Bjorkstrom (1979), KB 2 10 9 and KW 10 14 .
The right-hand sides of Equations (3.3) and (3.11) imply consideration has been
given of all the weak acids in saltwater. The ions of other compounds are taken into
account through the dependence of equilibrium constants on salinity or chlorine
content. The characteristic parameter of equilibrium in the carbonate system is a
variable:
" #
K1 K2 1=2 CO 23 1=2
X :
H CO2
In the terms of this parameter we have:

X
C 1 KX X 2 CO2 ; 3:12
A KX 2X 2 CO2 WX; 3:13

p
where K K1 =K2 ,
WX BT =f1 K1 K2 1=2 X 1

g=KB KW XK1 K2 1=2
K1 K2 1=2 X 1
:
Let us exclude [CO2 ] from (3.12) and (3.13):
2C A 0 X 2 KA 0 CX A 0 0; 3:14

where A 0 A WX.
Since WX A, to solve Equation (3.14) the following iterative procedure can
be used, beginning with an estimation of X X1 1:
A 0i A WXi ; Xi 0:5 b b 2 4ac 1=2 =a i 2;

where a 2C A 0i 1 , b KA 0i 1 C.
The exchange processes taking place at the atmosphere±ocean border were
experimentally studied by Kiseleva (1990) and Zaitsev (1988), among others. They
showed that at high wind speeds the rate of gas exchange sharply increases. This is
connected with the mechanism of foam formation on wave crests as well as the
intense activity of air bubbles being trapped and held beneath the water surface.
The dependence of the amount of spray Q on height over the water surface can be
approximated well by a linear function. For instance, at a wind speed of V 11.1 m/s
this approximation is (Kiseleva, 1990):
0
Q expf 14:5z 0:684g without wave breaking
Q
Q 0 expf 7:48z 0:842g with wave breaking,
where Q 0 1=cm 2 s is the dimensional multiplier.
Experimental estimates of the net gas transport due to the droplet mechanism
showed that the CO2 ¯ux between water and air can vary from 1.44 mgCO2 m 2 hr 1
in the absence of wave breaking to 26.6 mgCO2 m 2 hr 1 . The rate of gas exchange at
the atmosphere±ocean border is markedly aected by foam formation on the ocean
surface. In this case the rate of gas exchange can increase up to 28%. All this suggests
the conclusion that detailed modeling of the mechanisms involved in atmosphere±
water CO2 transport is needed. Satellite World Ocean monitoring allows us to
identify the zones of foam formation and, hence, along with the modeling of the
processes of foam formation, to perform direct measurements of the areas of the
foam-covered basins.
The mechanism underlying air bubble behavior in the upper layer of the ocean
has been poorly studied. The available theoretical results are based, as a rule, on a
number of suppositions, which in many cases can drastically distort ideas about the
real processes of gas exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. Among these
suppositions the following have been used most often:
. air bubbles in the upper layer of the ocean practically instantly acquire the
temperature of the environment, since the molecular coecient of heat conduc-
tivity exceeds that of gases by 2±3 orders of magnitude;
. air bubbles in water do not aect its dynamics;
. air bubbles do not merge in water.
The size of air bubbles in water varies constantly because they gradually dis-
sipate. Gas ¯ux through the bubbles is described by the relationship:
Q 4RDjDpjS Nu;
where jDpj is the dierence in the partial pressures of gas in the water and in the
atmosphere; and R is the bubble radius,
8
0:5Pe 0:5Pe 2 ln2Pe for R 20 mm,
< 1p
>
Nu 2=3Pe 1=3 for 20 mm < R 200 mm,
>
: 1=3 1=3
0:45Pe Re for 200 mm < R 400 mm,
where Re is the Reynolds number (Re 2vR=D); Pe is the Pekle number
(Pe vR=); is water viscosity; v is the velocity of bubble motion; and D is the
coecient of gas molecular diusion.
Of course, ocean surface condition substantially aects its gas exchange with the
atmosphere. The size of basins covered in foam or white caps depends directly on a
combination of parameters, such as wind speed, water temperature, and sea currents.
Analysis of the statistical characteristics of the patchy pattern of the ocean surface
made by many experts makes it possible to describe the percentage distribution of
areas covered in foam (Sf ) and white caps (Sl ) with the following binary functions of
wind speed V (at a height of 10 m):
(
0 for V < 5 m/s,
Sf 2 2
0:65f1 4:76 10 V 5 g for V 5 m/s,
(
0 for V < 5 m/s,
Sl
0:015f1 2:2 10 2 V 5 3 g for V 5 m/s.
According to Kiseleva (1990), the relationship between Sf and Sl at V 5 m/s
obeys the following rule:
Sf =Sl 50 3:4V 5:
It is clear that the structure of the atmosphere±ocean border can aect the gas
exchange within widely varying values of ¯uxes H C C
2 and H 3 (see Figure 3.6).
Unfortunately, the current level of knowledge of the laws behind changes in the
structure of the atmosphere±ocean border as a function of synoptic situations does
not facilitate clear estimation of the limits to detailing the processes taking place at
this border, to obtain values of the ¯uxes H C C
2 and H 3 that are close to real ones. This
means that at this stage of synthesizing a global model of the CO2 cycle some
uncertainty still exists.
Observations in the equatorial band of the Paci®c Ocean revealed in the period
1980±1990 a strong change in CO2 partial pressure (pCO2 ) in surface waters and in
atmosphere-to-ocean CO2 ¯ux. During the 1980s there was a much slower increase in
pCO2 with time than during the 1990s. The trend intensi®ed near 1990 and coincided
with the supposition that the main factor of the impact of atmosphere±ocean CO2
exchange was natural long-term climatic variability (Bratcher and Giese, 2002).
3.3.2 A zonal model for the carbon cycle in the atmosphere±ocean system
Let us consider one of the versions of parameterizing the dynamics of global carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere±ocean system proposed and studied by Nefedova (1994).
The spatial heterogeneity of the World Ocean can be approximated in a zonal scheme
in accordance with the latitudinal dependence of climatic processes and the processes
of mixing in the atmosphere and in the oceans. There are 14 latitudinal zones 10 in
size. In the vertical, there are three layers in the World Ocean: the upper quasi-
homogeneous layer (UQL) has a time-dependent thickness, thermocline, and deep
ocean. As a result, the World Ocean can be divided into 42 volume parts. An
upwelling is assumed to exist between 40 N and 40 S along with a downwelling at
higher latitudes. In the UQL the water ¯ows poleward from the equator, and in deep
layers the water ¯ows in the opposite direction (Kondratyev et al., 2003a, b). Over
each water basin, the atmosphere can be simulated by a point model. The carbon
exchange between dierent zones of the atmosphere takes place due to advection H ai
and turbulent diusion H di :
Hi H ai H di i 1; 14;
H ai 2R0 ha V i C ai C ai1 cos i ;
H di 2R0 Ah ha =Di C ai C ai1 cos i ;
where C ai M ai =V ai is the concentration of carbon in the ith zone of the atmosphere;
M ai is the carbon mass in the ith zone of the atmosphere; V ai is the volume of the ith
zone of the atmosphere; R0 is the Earth's radius; i is the latitude of the southern
boundary of the ith zone; ha is the altitude of the atmosphere (10 km); V i is the
average velocity of the meridian transport of air masses in the atmosphere (0.2 m/s±
1.0 m/s); and Ah is the coecient (10 5 m 2 /s).
CO2 exchange at the atmosphere±ocean border is described by the traditional
law:
H a0i kui P i
0
P 0i ;
where
P ai ka M ai RT ai S i 1 1 ;
where kui is the proportion coecient depending on wind speed; P 0i and P 0i are the
partial pressures of CO2 in the ith zone of the atmosphere and the ocean, respectively;
ka is the share of the 100 m air column mass in the mass of a 10 km column
(0.01602); R is the universal gas constant (8.31451 J/(mol K); T ai is the air tem-
perature at the level of the ocean in the ith zone (T ai T as a as
i DT i ); T i is the seasonal
temperature component; and DT ai is the average annual change of air temperature

caused by increased CO2 content in the atmosphere.
An SST change is assumed to take place in phase with a change in air tempera-
ture by the same value:
T 0i T 0s a
i DT i :
The partial pressure of CO2 dissolved in surface waters is proportional to its

concentration in the water and inversely proportional to its solubility. This depen-
dence is established by solving the system of Equations (3.12) and (3.13), which
describe the functioning of the ocean carbonate system. For the quantitative solution
of this system we can use, for instance, the secant method. As a result, we obtain
[CO2 ] and P 0i . Based on data on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium
constants for the respective chemical reactions, we ®nd:
P 0i P 0i C 1i ; T 0i i 1; 14:
The turbulent ¯uxes of carbon at the lower boundary of the UQL (HUPL ) and the
upper boundary of the thermocline (HT ) are described by the functions:
(
C 1i C 2i Vi dhi =dt for dhi =dt Vi > 0,
HUPL
0 for dhi =dt Vi 0,
(
C 1i C 2i Vi dhi =dt for dhi =dt Vi 0,
HT
0 for dhi =dt Vi > 0,
where C 1i and C 2i are the concentrations of inorganic carbon in the UQL and
thermocline, respectively; hi is the UQL depth of the ith zone of the ocean (depends
on the season); and Vi is the speed of water lifting (upwelling) or lowering (down-
welling) (0.001 cm/s±0.1 cm/s).
The turbulent ¯uxes of carbon on the thermocline±deep ocean border is
considered to be proportional to the coecient kT of the dierence in carbon
concentrations in the bordering layers:
HTF kT C 3i C 2i i 1; 14;
where C 3i is the concentration of inorganic carbon in the deep ocean of the ith zone.
Production and circulation of organic carbon in the ocean have been studied in
detail and parameterized by many authors (Nitu et al., 2000a, b, 2004; Krapivin and
Kondratyev, 2002; Kondratyev et al., 2004a). In the model by Nefedova and Tarko
(1993) the following approximations were assumed:
B pi B 0i f1 i 1=i 1 sinwt =2g
for ' 2 60 N; 90 N [ 60 S; 90 S i 1; 14;

B pi B 0i f1 i 1=i 1 sin2wt =2g

for ' 2 10 N; 60 N [ 10 S; 60 S i 2 6; 9 13;

B pi B 0i ; for ' 2 0 N; 10 N [ 0 S; 10 S i 7; 8;

where B 0i is the average annual production of phytoplankton (150-550 10 9 t/yr); and

i is the ratio of maximum and minimum values of the rate of organic matter
production.
Organic matter produced in the UQL decomposes and descends to deeper layers.
Let B 1d 2d 3d
i , B i , and B i be the rates of organic matter decomposition in the UQL,
thermocline, and deep ocean, respectively; the ratio of the average annual amount
of organic matter decomposing in the UQL to the average annual production of
phytoplankton; the lag time in organic matter decomposition; D the average depth
of the ocean (3,653 m±3,795 m); and H the depth of the thermocline bottom (30 m±
200 m). Then
p
B 1d
i B i t i 1; 14;
B 2d
i 1 H hi =D hi hB 1p
i i;
B 3d
i 1 D H=D hi hB 1p
i i:
Here the angle brackets ``hi'' denote calculation of the average value for the annual
cycle.
So, the seasonal model of the global carbon cycle developed in the works by
Nefedova and Tarko (1993) and Nefedova (1994) can be simulated by a system of 56
ordinary dierential equations with periodic coecients (i 1; . . . ; 14):

d 1 dhi
C h Vi C 1i H a0 HUPL L 1i B pi B 1di ;
dt i i dt i

d 2 dhi
C H hi Vi C 2i HT HTF B 2di ;
dt i dt
d 3
C D H Vi C 3i L 3i HTF B 3d
i ;
dt i
dM ai
ai V ai Hi Hi 1 0:012Si H a0
i ;
dt
where ai are the anthropogenic carbon emissions in the ith zone of the atmosphere.
3.4 CARBON CYCLE IN THE WORLD OCEAN
3.4.1 The World Ocean as a complex hierarchic system

To increase the reliability of assessing the role of the World Ocean in the global
carbon cycle, a more detailed description is needed of the production processes in
ocean ecosystems. Along with the physical and chemical processes of transformation
and motion of carbon in the ocean medium, the biological processes play an impor-
tant role. In particular, phytoplankton, just like the nutrient elements, assimilates
dissolved CO2 from saltwater. As a result, an organic substance is formed that
partially goes to the nutrient chains of the trophic pyramid of a given basin of the
World Ocean and partially descends to bottom sediments. The totality of all the
Sec. 3.4] 3.4 Carbon cycle in the World Ocean 177
processes involved in carbon motion in the ocean medium creates a gradient of CO2
concentration between the surface and deep waters. Therefore, a study of the struc-
ture and functioning of ocean ecosystems has become one of the most important and
rapidly developing directions for marine biology. Its various aspects are being
developed in many countries within the framework of the International Biological
Program. In particular, the international program JGOFS (Joint Global Ocean Flux
Study) is dedicated to the study of biochemical processes in the ocean to obtain a
deeper knowledge of how the ocean responds to external forcings. One of the goals of
studies is to predict the system's behavior as a result of changes to some of its
parameters. However, due to the unique nature and broad spatial extent of the World
Ocean, it is dicult to quantitatively estimate all the elements of the system at
dierent moments of its development and in dierent regions of the World Ocean
and, moreover, to assess the eect of their change on how the system functions overall.
The ocean covers 71% of the planet's surface and is the source of a substantial
amount of foodstus consumed by humans (around 1% of total food consumption),
the remaining 99% of food is obtained from cultivated land. At the same time, the
total amount of organic matter produced in the ocean is approximately equal to that
produced by land vegetation. By rough estimates, the total biomass of nekton
constitutes 5.3 10 9 t. The catch of ®sh and other species from the World Ocean is
estimated at 70 10 6 t/yr, which constitutes 20% of the protein consumed by humans.
The catch of traditional species is close to the limit for their sustainability
(90 10 6 t/yr±100 10 6 t/yr). However, it is not a limit to the industrial ability of
ocean ecosystems in general, since the supplies of krill and other biological objects are
still used little.
This disproportion between the role of land and ocean ecosystems in food
production is explained, primarily, by the fact that agriculture has been intensively
developed, whereas in the seas and oceans development has been poor by compar-
ison. Possible ways of increasing ocean bioproductivity have not been considered
beyond catching animals at the end of the trophic chains of natural communities of
the World Ocean (i.e., ®sh and whales). Each successive trophic level gains about
0.1% of the share of energy accumulated at a previous level. On land, two levels of
organisms (vegetation and herbivores) are used, but in the ocean and in the seas there
are up to ®ve levels. The direct use of non-®sh species will make it possible to sharply
increase the amount of protein obtained from the ocean.
Second, the question arises about the transition from free ®shing to cultivated
methods of economy in the World Ocean (i.e., the question of arti®cially increasing
the productivity of the biological communities of the ocean). To do this, it is neces-
sary, ®rst of all, to study the methods of controlling the output of the ®nal product in
the biological systems of the World Ocean. To determine rational ways of aecting
ocean communities, it is necessary to study their structure and the way they function,
to understand the production processes, transformations of matter, and energy ¯ux
at dierent trophic levels of ocean ecosystems. It is necessary to develop a theory of
control in the biological systems of coastal waters and the open ocean, which dier
both in natural hydrophysical and biogeochemical parameters as well as in the extent
of anthropogenic impacts.
Marine communities are complicated biological systems of populations of

individual species. As a result of their interaction, communities are in dynamic
development. Their spatial structure is mostly determined by the composition of
numerous biotic and abiotic factors, which depend on the totality of oceanic
parameters. The latter are determined by the laws of general circulation of ocean
waters, including tides and ebbs, zones of convergence and divergence, wind, and
thermohaline currents.
In the late 20th century the urgent problem arose of predicting the dynamics of
ocean systems in conditions of increasing anthropogenic impacts (chemical poison-
ing, elimination of living organisms, environmental changes) as well as assessing their
role in the dynamics of the whole biosphere. In recent studies of the climatic impact of
greenhouse gases it was shown that the role of the World Ocean in this process has
been underestimated. In particular, Kondratyev and Johannessen (1993) provided
data on the role of the Arctic basins in the formation of the global CO2 cycle, from
which it followed that previous assessments of this role were incorrect. This was
connected with the fact that an account of biological and gravitational processes
playing the combined role of a pump that sucked in carbon dioxide from the atmo-
sphere to deep layers of the ocean was inadequate in earlier models of the global
biogeochemical carbon cycle. Therefore, speci®c models of the working regime for
this pump with climatic zones taken into account may be important in predicting
estimates of the greenhouse eect.
The impact of ocean ecosystems on biogeochemical cycles is manifested through
the atmosphere±water border and is usually parameterized based on observational
data. However, what is important in this impact is the vertical structure of the
processes taking place in the ocean medium. The nature of these processes depends
much on external factors. For instance, according to Legendre and Legendre (1998),
in the Arctic zones of the World Ocean the patchy structure of the springtime bloom
of phytoplankton is determined by the winter conditions of ice formation and
subsequent ice melting. In other zones these external factors are pollutions of the
atmosphere and ocean surface, changes in phytoplankton living conditions, and
functioning of the carbonate system.
Phytoplankton is at one of the initial levels of the trophic hierarchy of the ocean
system. As ®eld observations have shown, the World Ocean has a patchy structure
formed by a combination of non-uniform spatial distributions of insolation, tem-
perature, salinity, concentration of nutrient elements, hydrodynamic characteristics,
etc. The vertical structure of phytoplankton distribution is less diverse and possesses
rather universal properties. These properties are manifested by the existence of one to
four vertical maxima of phytoplankton biomass.
Variability of the patchy topology and vertical structure is connected with
seasonal cycles and has been well studied experimentally in many climatic zones of
the World Ocean. The typical qualitative and quantitative indicators of this vari-
ability have been found. The combined distributions of abiotic, hydrological, and
biotic components of the ocean ecosystems have been studied. Vetrov and Roman-
kevich (2004) analyzed conditions for the carbon cycle formation in the Barents,
White, Kara, East-Siberian, and Chukchi Seas, considering the relationships between
the sources of organic carbon and taking into account the role of phytoplankton,
zooplankton, bacterioplankton, and zoobenthos.
The complexity and mutual dependence of all the processes in the ocean sub-
stantially hinder discovery of the laws of formation of phytoplankton spots and
establishing correlations between the various factors that regulate trophic relation-
ship intensity in ocean ecosystems. For instance, many studies revealed a close
relationship between primary production and phytoplankton amount. At the
same time, this relationship breaks down depending on the combination of synoptic
situation and insolation. It turns out that the extent of this breakdown depends much
on the combination of groups of phytoplankton (Legendre and Legendre, 1998).
Analysis of the accumulated observation data on assessments of the produce of
seas and oceans and the attempts of many authors to discover the laws of produce
formation characteristic of various water basins have revealed various laws in local
relationships between productivity and environmental parameters.
An ecient way of studying the vertical structure of ocean ecosystems is to
numerically model them based on measurements of their characteristics (Kuck et
al., 2000). To derive the model, it is necessary to know the structure of the trophic
relationships in ecosystems, speci®c features of hydrological conditions, and informa-
tion about other characteristics of the environment. Experience in such modeling has
pointed up a possibility for ecient prediction of the dynamics of World Ocean
communities. Examples of such models include a 3-D model of the ecosystem of
the Peruvian current (Krapivin, 1996), of the Okhotsk Sea (Aota et al., 1993), and
others. In all these models the main task was parameterizing a unit for the vertical
structure of the ecosystem.
3.4.2 Spatial model of the carbon cycle in the ocean

Along with the physico-chemical processes of transformation of carbon compounds
in the hydrosphere mentioned above, the general circulation in the World Ocean
plays an important role in their long-range transport. According to the available
estimates, about 80% (1.7 Gt) of organic matter formed in the process of photo-
synthesis descends to deeper layers and oxidizes giving CO2 . This process is balanced
by a slow upwelling of water, and thereby a situation for stable CO2 exchange arises.
However, in local situations there are strong deviations from stable conditions, which
can be described only by a scheme of the spatiotemporal structure of ocean water
motion. The block scheme of this structure identi®es the surface, intermediate,
deep, and bottom waters as well as the current topography on every horizon. In
the scienti®c literature, models simulating World Ocean circulation vary widely;
therefore, the development of this part of the global model unit is not dicult.
Following Nitu et al. (2000b), ocean depth z can be divided into four basic
layers: photic to well-heated (OU Uzi ; zi1 , z0 0; i 0; 1; . . . ; m 1); inter-
mediate (OP Uzi ; zi1 , i m; . . . ; m n 1); deep (OL Uzi ; zi1 ,
i m n; . . . ; m n l 1), and bottom OF . According to their hydrophysico-
ecological characteristics, layer OU as a function of latitude ', longitude , and
season t can be attributed to warm or cold waters; layer OP is photic but always
with low water temperatures; in layer OL phytoplankton are not produced; and,
®nally, layer OF plays the role of a boundary layer.
On average, layer OU has an area 360 10 12 m 2 and a depth zm 75 m, its warm
waters covering an area of 240 10 12 m 2 . Layer OP is located at depths from zm to
zmn 200 m. In the model realizations given in Krapivin and Kondratyev (2002) the
following assumptions were made: m 10, n 2, l 8.
Vertical CO2 transport in the ocean is determined by advective ¯uxes H C 19;i j and
gravitational sedimentation of dead organic matter (¯ux H C 20;i j ). Advective transport
from the ith to the jth reservoir of the ocean is considered proportional to the
concentration of carbon in the respective reservoirs: H C 19;i j 2;i j Ca;i a U; P; L,
where 2;i j Vi j =Vi , Vi j is the water volume transported per unit time from the ith
reservoir to the jth reservoir; and Vi is the volume of the ith reservoir.
The following algorithm is widely used to parameterize the process of carbon
sedimentation. The ¯ux under a unit area of the ocean is supposed to decrease
exponentially with depth. If we denote the in¯ow of organic matter in the ith
reservoir as gi and the net out¯ow of organic matter from the water surface as
H20;T , we obtain:
HC
20;1 H20;T ; HC
20;i gi 1 i =i 1 exp zi zj 1 =Ds i 2; . . . ; m n l;
where i is the area of the ith reservoir; and Ds is the characteristic time of organic
matter particle sedimentation before their decomposition. The rate of decomposition
in each reservoir is equal to:
RD;i H C
20; j HC
20;i1 i 1; . . . ; m n l; RD;F H C
20;mnl HC
16 :
However, if the transition time of organic matter particles from one layer to
another is short compared with Ds , then it is better to take H C 20;i 1 Ca;i ,
HC16;i C
4 F;i . In addition to these ¯uxes we should take into account the ¯uxes
of detritus decomposition, solution of bottom sediments, and carbon consumption in
the process of photosynthesis:
HC
17;i const; HC
18;i 3 DL;i ; HC
22;i 3 DU;i ; HC
21;i C31 RF;i :
Estimates of modeled parameters of particular oceanic processes of the carbon

cycle range widely. For instance, from the data of various authors the estimates of
assimilation of carbon from the hydrosphere in the process of photosynthesis range
from 10 GtC/yr to 155 GtC/yr. The value 127.8 GtC/yr is most widely used. However,
because of large variations in these estimates, calculation of the C31 coecient is
fraught with great uncertainty; therefore, specifying it requires numerical experiments
using other, more accurate data.
Finally, let us suppose that the surface layers of the ocean are ®lled with carbon
due to its run-o from the land H C C
24;i C7 Wsi0 , H 23;i C8 WHi0 , where Wsi0 and
WHi0 are river and underground run-os into the World Ocean, respectively.
Considering the notations in Figure 3.6, the balance equations to describe the
global carbon cycle are written as:
@CA @CA @CA
HC5 V' V
@t @' @
8 C C
>
> H2 H3 ; '; 2 O0 ;
<
X
11
>
> C C C
HC
: H1 H4 H6 i ; '; 2 O n O0 ;
i7
@CS1
HC
6 HC
7 HC
8 HC
14 HC
15 ;
@t
@CS2 X 4
HC
i11 HC
4 HC
9 HC
23 HC
24 ;
@t i1
@CU @CU @CU

vU
' vU
QU H C C
22 H 25 HC
21;U HC C C
3 H 2 H 19;U HC
20;U ;
@t @' @
@CP @CP @CP
v P' v P HC
19;P HC C
19;U H 20;U HC
20;P HC C C
21;P H 22 H 25 ;
@t @' @
@CL @CL @CL
v L' v L HC C
18;L H 19;L HC C
19;P H 20;P HC
20;L ;
@t @' @
@CF @CF @CF
v F' v F HC
17 HC C
16 H 18;F HC C
19;L H 20;L :
@t @' @
Flux QU is formed from H C C
23 and H 24 . Let QU 0 for the pelagic regions OOP of
the World Ocean. Let us describe the formation of QU on marginal shelves by a
simple algorithm with the supposed uniform distribution of the sink from the Kth
region to the Mth water basin:

0; '; 2 OOP ,
QU
H C
23 H C

24 OP = L ; '; 2 OO n OOP ,
where OP and L are the areas of the water basins OOP and OL , respectively.
3.4.3 The organic carbon cycle in the ocean ecosystem

Each element of ocean ecosystem A can be described by a number of parameters, and
the connection between elements can be presented as that between the respective
parameters. Then, on the whole, ecosystem A can be described by N time-dependent
parameters x t fxj t; j 1; . . . ; Ng. The structure jAtj and behavior At of
ecosystem A, which can be observed in more or less detail, are functions of these
parameters. Therefore, the ecosystem itself At fjAtj; Atg, as a combination of
structure and behavior, is a function of these parameters:
At Fx t: 3:15
Hence, according to (3.15), with a change in time t, ecosystem A will be

characterized by a trajectory in N 1-dimensional Euclidian space. Let us consider
the following abstract formation as a model of ecosystem At:
AM t FM x ;M ; 3:16
;M
which depends on M N components of the vector x t fx tg 2 fx tg and
considers all the connections existing between them.
The nearer M is to N and the more completely the connections between the
components of vector x ;M t are taken into account, the less is the disagreement
between the trajectories of ecosystem At and its model AM t. The latter can be
measured by any natural measure (e.g., by the maximum absolute dierence of all the
respective coordinates of trajectories or by the integral of absolute dierence of all
respective coordinates for a ®nal time period). In other words, let us introduce a goal
functional
V Qfxi tg 3:17
on the trajectory of ecosystem At. The form of Q function is determined by the

requirements made by system A on the environment. The natural evolutionary
process is considered to lead to an optimal system, and therefore system Aopt;M t,
which ensures an extremum of the functional (3.17), can be considered an optimal
model of ecosystem A.
The extent of disagreement between the trajectories of ecosystem A and an
optimal model Aopt;M t is aected by the degree of correspondence of the goal
functional V chosen by the relationship (3.17) to the real goal A of ecosystem A.
The set G fA1 ; . . . ; Ar ; . . . ; Am g of possible reliable goals fAr g of the ecosystem
can be derived on the basis of experience accumulated by oceanologists. Then,
determining:
Aopt;M;r gr Ar ; Ar 2 G;
we obtain a limited assembly of possible optimal systems Aopt;M;r (r 1; . . . m), whose

trajectories together with the trajectory of ecosystem A are within the space of
possible trajectories. If we ®nd Aopt;M;r0 , whose trajectory has a minimum disagree-
ment with At, then, based on this, we can ®nd the most reliable goal of the
ecosystem
Ar0 gr 1 Aopt;M;r0 t:
According to the principles mentioned above, the derivation of a numerical model of

ocean ecosystem A requires either a detailed description of its states or derivation of
an adequate complex of numerical models of energy exchange between the trophic
levels taking place in A, as well as the interactions of biotic, abiotic, and hydro-
physical factors. Of course, in this case an availability of a certain set of hypotheses is
assumed concerning the character of the balanced relationship in ecosystem A.
The basic hypothesis is that in ecosystem A the only original source of energy and
matter for all forms of life is solar radiation energy (E). According to numerous
theoretical and experimental studies, sunlight penetration into deep layers of the
ocean follows an exponential law:

z
E uE0 exp fp'; ; x; t d'; ; x; t Z'; ; x; tg dx z
0
1 uE0 exp z; 3:18
where E0 E'; ; 0; t is light reaching the ocean surface; is the coecient of

light absorption as it ®lters through seawater; , , and are the coecients of
light attenuation due to phytoplankton p, detritus d, and zooplankton Z,
respectively; u and are the parameters chosen in a given situation to bring
E'; ; z; t closer to the real pattern of illumination changing with depth. Note that
here the impact of the biomass of other trophic levels on water transparency is
considered to be negligibly small.
Illumination aects the rate of photosynthesis Rp . The Rp parameter as a
function of E has a maximum at some optimal value of Emax , which drifts from this
critical value when illumination increases or decreases. The maximum Rp at various
latitudes ' is located at depths that vary as a function of season (i.e., sun elevation).
Thus, in tropical zones this variability with depth is most pronounced. On average,
the photosynthesis maximum is located at depths of 10 m±30 m, and in open water
bodies it can be observed at depths below 30 m. Here Emax 65 cal cm 2 da 1 ±
85 cal cm 2 da 1 . At depths where E 20 cal cm 2 da 1 ±25 cal cm 2 da 1 , photo-
synthesis decreases in proportion to E. An apparent suppression of phytoplankton
by light is observed at E > 100 cal cm 2 da 1 . These estimates are quite dierent in
northern latitudes, where the photosynthesis maximum is located, as a rule, at the
surface.
The rate of photosynthesis at depth z depends on water temperature TW , con-
centration of nutrient salts n, and phytoplankton biomass p, as well as on other
factors, which are not considered here. To express this dependence, various equations
are used, which re¯ect the limiting role of elements E, n, and p. Considering that
@p=p @z ! 0 at n ! 0 as @p=p @z ! const with increasing n, let us take the following
function as the basic one to describe photosynthesis intensity at depth z:
Rp '; ; z; t k0 TW KT f2 p f3 n; 3:19
where
KT Af1 E; A kAmax =Emax ; f1 E E expm1 E=Emax ;
f2 p 1 expf 1 pg; f3 n 1 expf 2 ng ; 3:20
where k is the proportion coecient; k0 TW is the function characterizing the
dependence of photosynthesis rate on water temperature TW ; Amax is an assimilation
number in the region of maximum photosynthesis (increment per unit weight of
phytoplankton organisms); 1 , 2 , , and m are constants, the choice of which
can determine the species characteristics of phytoplankton elements. For Amax the
following estimates are valid: Amax 5:94Emax in the region of the photosynthesis
minimum and 2.69Emax for other regions. According to these estimates, assimilation
by the number of tropical phytoplankton in the region of maximum
photosynthesis averages 11 mgC hr 1 ±12 mgC hr 1 . Thus, for the Peru upwelling
Amax 6.25 mgC hr 1 . The light saturation of photosynthesis in equatorial regions
is reached at 9 cal cm 2 da 1 .
As for the dependence of k0 TW , the speci®c intensity of phytoplankton photo-
synthesis ®rst increases as temperature change increases, reaching at some point an
optimal value for p, and then, as temperature further increases it begins to decrease.
Near the maximum the following approximation is often used:
k0 TW expfTW TW;opt ln0 g; 0 < 0 2:
The dependence of the rate of photosynthesis on the concentration of nutrient
elements n'; ; z; t (phosphorus, silicon, nitrogen, and others), expressed in
Formula (3.19) by the exponential term, is, of course, more complicated. Nutrient
elements are among the most important parts of the ecosystem, since they regulate the
energy ¯ux in the ecosystem. Nutrient element supplies are spent in the process of
photosynthesis at a rate Rn , usually approximated by the expression Rn Rp , where
is the proportion coecient. Nutrient element supplies are replenished due to their
uplift from deep waters, where they build up as a result of the chemical processes of
dead organic matter decomposition. This process is controlled by several abiotic
conditions characteristic of various climatic zones of the World Ocean. The vertical
¯ux of nutrient elements is determined by conditions of water mixing. In tropical
zones, where the vertical structure of the water has a clear three-layer con®guration in
one of which the temperature leaps suddenly (the thermocline), the vertical motion of
nutrient elements is con®ned to this layer. In water bodies where the thermocline is
located at depths of 40 m±100 m, the upper layer is usually poor in nutrient elements,
and their input to this layer takes place only in upwelling zones. In this case the
average rate of uplift of vertical water beneath the thermocline varies from 10 3 cm/s
to 10 2 cm/s, and in upwelling zones (where it breaks through the thermocline) it can
reach 0.1 cm s 1 .
The whole volume of oceanic water is considered as a single biocenosis in which
the ¯ux of organic matter produced in surface layers then descending to the bottom of
the ocean is the main connecting factor. All model parameters are assumed to be able
to change as functions of place and time, and their parametric description is made by
average characteristics (i.e., deterministic models).
Let us suppose the food bonds between trophic levels are adequately described by
the Ivlev model (i.e., the consumption of various kinds of food by the ith trophic level
is proportional to the eciency of their biomasses). Taking into account the diagram
of food bonds developed by Kondratyev et al. (2003b) and the structure of the trophic
pyramid of a typical ocean ecosystem, we can consider each trophic level in detail.
Bacterioplankton b play an important role in the trophic chains of the ocean.
According to available estimates, no fewer than 30% of bacterioplankton are in
natural masses exceeding 3 m±5 m in size, therefore acting as good for ®ltrates. This
fact must be taken into account when deriving a model of the ecosystem, since in
many regions of the World Ocean bacteria production is comparable with the
production of phytoplankton. Bacteria, occupying a special place in the trophic
pyramid, dier by variable exchange, strongly decreasing with the shortage of food,
which is followed by respective decrease in the rate of their growth. The food for
bacteria consists mainly of detritus d and the dissolved organic matter g emitted by
phytoplankton. As a result, food for bacteria can be described by the Ivlev formula:
Rb kb b1 exp k1;d d k1;g g; 3:21
where kb , k1;d , and k1;g are coecients determined experimentally.
The equation describing the dynamics of the bacterioplankton biomass is written
in the form:
@b=@t V' @b=@' V @b=@ Vz @b=@z
X
R b T b Mb Cbs Rs k2;' @ 2 b=@' 2 k2; @ 2 b=@ 2 k2;z @ 2 b=@z 2 ;
s 2 Gb
3:22
where Tb and Mb are losses in bacterioplankton biomass due to energy exchange with
the environment and dying-o; Gb is the trophic level subordinate to bacterioplank-
ton (in a typical case Gb is an element of Z); and Cb;s is the share of bacterioplankton
in the food ration of the sth element of the ecosystem. The parameters Tb and Mb are
described by the following relationships:
Tb tb b; 3:23
Mb maxf0; b b Bb g; 3:24
where tb is the speci®c expenditure as a result of exchange with the environment; b is
the rate of bacteria dying o; Bb and are constants that determine the dependence of
the intensity of bacteria dying o on their concentration. The coecient
k2 k2;' ; k2; ; k2;z determines the process of the turbulent mixing of ocean waters.
The dynamic equation for the phytoplankton biomass is:
@p=@t V' @p=@' V @p=@ Vz @p=@z
X
R p T p Mp Cps Rs k2;' @ 2 p=@' 2 k2; @ 2 p=@ 2 k2;z @ 2 p=@z 2 ;
s 2 Gp
3:25
where Gp is the trophic level subordinate to phytoplankton; Cps is the share of the
phytoplankton biomass in the food ration of the elements of the sth trophic level of
the ecosystem; Tp is expenditure as a result of energy exchange with the environment;
Mp is the dying-o of phytoplankton cells. The latter parameters are determined by
the following relationships:
Mp maxf0; p p p g; 3:26
Tp tp p; 3:27
where tp is the speci®c expenditure on respiration of the phytoplankton cells; p is
the coecient of phytoplankton dying o; p and are coecients characterizing
the dependence of the rate of the phytoplankton cell dying o on their concentration.
Zooplankton are an important trophic element in the ocean ecosystem presented

at an integral level Z which implies the presence of a large number of sub-levels
with untersecting trophic bonds. Zooplankton feed on phytoplankton and bacterio-
plankton, and are themselves food for nekton r and detritophages D.
Let us describe the zooplankton ration by the Ivlev formula:
Rz kZ 1 exp B; 3:28
where B is the biomass of accessible food (B maxf0; B Bmin g); kZ is the maximum
ration with plenty of food; is the coecient characterizing the level of starvation.
Maximum ration is assumed to be equal to the need for food, which, in turn, is
determined by exchange intensity T1 and maximum possible increment P1 at a given
intensity of exchange. The latter two parameters are related to the coecient
q2 P1 =P1 T1 , so that we obtain:
kZ T1 u1 q2;max ;
where 1=u is food assimilation; and q2;max max q2 .
Formula (3.28) implies that with a small amount of food the zooplankton ration
grows in proportion to the amount of food, then, as the ration approaches its
maximum of kZ , its dependence on B diminishes. Since one trophic level never totally
consumes another, there is a limitation in (3.28) that establishes RZ 0 at B Bmin ,
where Bmin is the minimum unconsumed food biomass. In (3.26) the p parameter
plays the same role but this time in the process of the dying-o of phytoplankton
cells.
Thus, a change in zooplankton biomass follows the law described by the
following dierential equation:
@Z=@t V' @Z=@' V @Z=@ Vz @Z=@z
X
RZ TZ MZ HZ CZs Rs k2;' @ 2 Z=@' 2 k2; @ 2 Z=@ 2 k2;z @ 2 Z=@z 2 ;
s 2 GZ
3:29
where GZ is the trophic level subordinatte to zooplankton; CZs is the share of the
zooplankton biomass in the food ration of the sth trophic level; HZ , TZ , and MZ
are the losses in zooplankton biomass due to unconsumed food, expenditures on
respiration, and dying-o, respectively. Let us describe the latter three parameters by
the relationships:
H Z hZ R Z ; TZ tZ Z; MZ Z Z;1 ZZ; 3:30
where the coecients hZ , tZ , Z , and Z;1 are determined empirically for a given
species of zooplankton.
As seen from (3.29), zooplankton are considered passive elements of the eco-
system subject to physical processes of transference in space as a result of water
movement. However, zooplankton are known to migrate mainly in the vertical direc-
tion. In the given model we can use a simple mechanism to simulate the process of
vertical migration of zooplankton. For this purpose, we divide the whole water
thickness into two layers: 0 z z0 and z0 < z H. Let us suppose that zooplank-
ton migration between these layers depends on food availability; that is, some of the
zooplankton from the layer z0 ; H can satisfy their need of food in the layer 0; z0 .
This means that by taking Bmin into account the whole vertical pro®le B'; ; z; t is
considered.
Let us determine the coecients Cas (a p; Z) in Formulas (3.25) and (3.29) by
supposing that the consumption of various kinds of food in the sth trophic level is
proportional to the eciency of their biomasses:
" #
X 1
Cas ksa Ba ksa Ba ; 3:31
a 2 Sz
where Ba is the eciency of the biomass at consuming ath food; Ss is the trophic level
subordinate to the sth component; and ksa is the proportion coecient that deter-
mines the signi®cance of the sth constituent in the food ration of the ath element.
The equations to describe the dynamics of the biomass of nekton, detritovores,
detritus, dissolved organic matter, and nutrient salts will be
X
@r=@t Rr Hr Tr Mr Crs Rs ; 3:32
s 2 Gr
X
@D=@t RD HD TD MD CDs Rs ; 3:33
s 2 GD
@d=@t V' @d=@' V @d=@ Vz @d=@z Mb MD Mr Mp MZ

HZ Hr HD d d CdD RD
k2;' @ 2 d=@' 2 k2; @ 2 d=@ 2
k2;z @ 2 d=@z 2 ; 3:34
@n=@t V' @n=@' V @n=@ Vz @n=@z d d Rp k2;' @ 2 n=@' 2 g g
k2; @ 2 n=@ 2 k2;z @ 2 n=@z 2 ; 3:35
@g=@t V' @g=@' V @g=@ Vz @g=@z Tp Tb Tr TD TZ Cgb Rb
k2;' @ g=@' k2; @ g=@ 2
2 2 2
k2;z @ 2 g=@z 2 ; 3:36

where Ha 1 ha Ra is the unassimilated food of the ath element (a r; D);
Ta ta a is the expenditure on energy exchange; Ma a a;1 aa is dying-o;
g is the indicator of the rate of replenishing the supplies of nutrient elements as a
result of decomposition of dissolved organic matter; and is the coecient of
consumption of nutrient elements in the process of photosynthesis.
As follows from (3.32) and (3.33), a supposition is made in the model that nekton
and detritophages do not move in space with the motion of water masses. These
elements are assumed to migrate independently of the hydrophysical conditions of
their environment. Consider two possible versions of modeling the processes of
migration. The ®rst version is connected with addition to the right-hand sides of
Equations (3.32) and (3.33) of terms describing turbulent mixing by coecients
k 2 > k2 . In other words, the process of migration is identi®ed with the process of
intensi®ed turbulent mixing (i.e., it is accidental). However, the process of ®sh
migration manifests some expediency in the choice of direction of movement.
According to the biological principle of adaptation, the migration of ®sh is subject
to the principle of complex maximization of the food ration, with environmental
parameters keeping within the conditions of their habitat. Hence, the motion of ®sh
in space at characteristic velocities ensures their locations in regions where at that
moment in time food and other abiotic conditions (temperature, salinity, dissolved
oxygen, chemical concentration) are most favorable. This means that ®sh migrate in
the direction of a maximum gradient of accessible food with the preserved limitations
of environmental parameters.
3.5 CARBON EXCHANGE PROCESSES AT THE ATMOSPHERE±LAND

BOUNDARY
The interaction between two carbon reservoirs, the atmosphere and land, is expressed
by carbon ¯uxes formed as a result of ecological, geophysical, and geochemical
processes, including photosynthesis, respiration of plants and animals, decomposi-
tion of dead organic matter, vegetation, and fuel burning, volcanic emanations, rock
weathering, etc. Which of these processes prevails depends on many factors, such as
wind direction and strength (Wang et al., 2005). Therefore, in the scheme of Figure
3.7 and in Table 3.3 they are all taken into account.
Figure 3.7. The scheme for carbon ¯uxes in the model of the atmosphere±vegetation±soil
system.
Sec. 3.5] 3.5 Carbon exchange processes at the atmosphere±land boundary 189
The most important aspect in studying the global carbon cycle is the contribution
of the interaction between surface vegetation and the atmosphere to CO2 exchange.
This dependence is based on the fact that all plants create their biomass by assimilat-
ing atmospheric constituents C, O2 , H, N, S, P, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, among which the most
important are carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, and sulfur. Clearly, in a detailed analysis of
the process of photosynthesis we should take into account the kinetics of CO2 , CH4 ,
H2 O, H2 S, NH3 , and NO2 . A minimum requirement for ensured CO2 assimilation is
the availability of CO2 , H2 O, light, chlorophyll, and proper environmental conditions
(temperature and humidity). Therefore, the complex assimilation formula can be
written as follows:
CO2 H2 O 675 kcal ! C6 H12 O6 O2 H2 O
moles 6 moles 12 Sun energy moles 11 moles 6 moles 6
246 g 216 g 180 g 192 g 108 g
This formula can be used to calculate the balance between plants and the atmo-
sphere for CO2 exchange, but cannot be used for water, since water is a limiting factor
for photosynthesis. The plants use much more water because of transpiration. In
global models the process of carbon assimilation should be detailed carefully to avoid
violating a balanced description of other processes. Usually this is brought about by
introducing the needed corrections (Krapivin and Kondratyev, 2002). For instance,
possible losses in the balanced relationship for photosynthesis are taken into account.
These losses are assumed to be 20%±30%; that is, on average, 6 mol CO2 give
0.75 mol of glucose.
It is also necessary to consider the spatial heterogeneity of the Earth land covers,
which dier in biomass density and the intensity of organic matter formation. On
average, 90% of the total biomass (830 GtC) are forests (50 10 6 m 2 ), 50% of this
value constituting tropical forests (24.5 10 6 m 2 ), and only 10% (84 GtC) refer to
scrub, savannahs, meadows, deserts, semi-deserts, marshes, and cultivated lands. The
process of organic matter formation is highly inhomogeneous: forests produce
33 GtC/yr, the remaining vegetation 20 GtC/yr. These heterogeneities lead to mosaic
patterns in bioproductivity and therefore should be taken into account when synthe-
sizing a model. For instance, from estimates of Saito et al. (2005), in a rice ®eld in the
period of maximum development of leaves, CO2 assimilation from the atmosphere
can reach 39 gCO2 m 2 da 1 , with high variability during the vegetation period. On
the whole, the vegetation period in a rice ®eld in central Japan lasts for about 100
days, from late May to late August. And during the remaining 70% of the year the
rice ®elds serve as a CO2 sink. The ratio of net primary production to losses from
respiration in the rice ®elds constitutes 1.53 in the vegetation period and 0.43 in the
post-harvest period. Knowledge of such details for other ecosystems is a necessary
condition for accurate assessment of their role in the global biogeochemical carbon
cycle.
The relationship between the global CO2 cycle and land vegetation is manifested
by the dependence of primary production and the rate of dead biomass decom-
position on temperature and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Temperature
dependence is most apparent in northern latitudes where global mean temperature
variations can range up to 85 C, and the vegetative period of plants changes from 2 to
7 months. On the whole, the frequency of high air temperatures has increased in
recent decades, and this should bring about changes in pure production in temperate
and boreal forests, which aects the atmosphere±land exchange of CO2 and solar
energy (Granta et al., 2005).
Nalder and Wein (2006) proposed a model of the carbon dynamics in a boreal
forest in the west of Canada. The model was based on the algorithm of forest litter
decomposition used in the model ``Century'', which parameterizes the dynamics of
soil organic matter and at the same time taking its strati®ed structure into account. In
the case considered, the forest litter and reservoirs of carbon in mineral-rich soil were
discretized in accordance with the age structure of trees. It was shown that to
improve the model description of the carbon cycle in a forest ecosystem, speci®ed
data are needed on the dynamics of dying-o of the root system and trees themselves,
as well as the nitrogen balance of this system. Again, this conclusion con®rms that
available estimates of the CO2 sink and sources on land are far from ideal, and their
speci®cation is only possible within the framework of the GMNSS (Kondratyev et al.,
2003b).
Ito et al. (2005) developed a model to simulate diurnal ¯uxes of CO2 in a cool-
temperate deciduous forest at one of the 25 sites of the AsiaFlux network in Japan
(near Takayama). The proposed model was based on modifying the Sim-Cycle model
of the carbon cycle to specify the seasonal and interannual variations of physiological
processes. Also, the modi®cation predicted selection of 12 reservoirs of carbon at a
chosen site, including the canopy of fallen trees, evergreen undergrowth, litter, and
mineral-rich soil. The model took into account the dependence of primary production
on temperature, soil moisture, and CO2 concentration. Calculations showed that at
one forest site there were considerable seasonal oscillations in CO2 ¯uxes. In par-
ticular, in late autumn, the forest ecosystem became a source of CO2 delivering to the
atmosphere 1 gC m 2 da 1 . On average, during the period of studies 1999±2002, the
forest test site was a sink of atmospheric CO2 (206 gC m 2 da 1 ). This study showed
that in modeling the biogeochemical cycle of carbon in deciduous forests, it is neces-
sary to describe in more detail the seasonal dynamics of forest ecosystems. Kitao et al.
(2007) emphasized the importance of considering the vertical pro®les of a forest
ecosystem's base elements.
Lee et al. (2005) estimated CO2 ¯uxes in a forest near Takayama on the basis of
root system respiration using the polynomial constituent of the regression model,
which took into account the temperature and moisture of the soil and re¯ected the
hourly regime of soil respiration. It was shown that the contribution of the forest root
system to soil CO2 ¯ux (1.06 kgC km 2 yr 1 ) constitutes 45% (0.48 kgC km 2 yr 1 ).
This highlights the importance of re¯ecting the role of the root system in models of
forest ecosystems as an independent element of the ecosystem.
Within the framework of the AsiaFlux program, Saigusa et al. (2005) measured
the CO2 ¯uxes since 1993 in the forest ecosystem of Takayama using an aerodynamic
method to estimate the vertical gradient of CO2 concentration and a vortex diver-
gence method to calculate the coecient of diusion over the forest canopy. Also,
measurements were made of vortex ¯uxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and CO2 .
Pure production in the forest ecosystem in 1999, 2000, and 2001 constituted 198±
251 gC m 2 yr 1 , 309±376 gC m 2 yr 1 , and 290±342 gC m 2 yr 1 , respectively. The
uncertainty in these estimates was probably caused by nighttime periods either being
considered or ignored when calculating plant production. Pure production averaged
over the period 1994±2002 constituted 237 92 gC m 2 yr 1 . The highest level of
productivity of the forest was recorded in 1998 (329 gC m 2 yr 1 ) and in 2002
(346 gC m 2 yr 1 ) mainly due to the high rate of CO2 assimilation in the ®rst half
of each year, when springs were warm due to El NinÄo.
The impact of atmospheric CO2 on the growth of plants depends on many
factors. There are two basic types of plants classi®ed by the form of their reaction
to changes in the partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 . The ®rst, most widespread
type of plants (type C3 ) is characterized by photorespiration brought about by
fermentation, which can simultaneously assimilate and emit CO2 and O2 . This
process has a so-called compensation point G, when the balance of all functions of
the plant with respect to CO2 concentration (Ca ) is optimal. This point is character-
ized by the value G 50 mmol mol 1 at 25 C, grows with growing temperature, is
proportional to the value (Ca G) up to the level 1,000 mmol mol 1 , and has an
eciency in the initial use of light that increases with increasing CO2 in proportion to
Ca G=Ca G (Goudrian et al., 1990).
Plants of the other type (C4 ), such as tall tropical grass (maize, sugar cane, millet,
sorgo), assimilate CO2 from the atmosphere independently of O2 concentration, so
that G remains practically constant and at a low level 5 mmol mol 1 . These plants
react weakly to changes in the concentrations of carbon dioxide.
Numerous laboratory studies of the response of plants of both types to a change
in the quantity CA (Bazzaz, 1986) testify to the wide range of quantitative estimates of
photosynthesis variations for the C3 type. On average, plants respond to a change in
CO2 concentration after a 1-month delay. Doubled CO2 concentration causes a
doubling of the rate of photosynthesis. Further increase of CA up to 400% leads
to the eect of photosynthesis saturation for some plants (i.e., there can be a 20%
addition to the rate of photosynthesis), and in some cases (e.g., Setaria lutescens)
photosynthesis is suppressed. In fact, plants of the C4 type even with the present
quantity of CA are in a state of photosynthesis saturation.
Hattas et al. (2005) studied the impact of changes in atmospheric CO2 concen-
tration on subtropical grass ecosystems, considering plants of both types (C3 and C4 )
and showed that the content of various elements in plants change non-uniformly with
the growing content of atmospheric CO2 . The C/N and C/P ratios in both types of
plants grow as CO2 increases. From estimates obtained in Jones et al. (2005), the role
of grass ecosystems in regulating the greenhouse eect was strongly underestimated,
especially in the case of controlled meadows/pastures. It was shown that ¯uxes of
CO2 , N2 O, and CH4 depend strongly on the type of fertilizers applied. In the case of
inorganic fertilizers, a meadow emits N2 O (388 gN2 O±N ha 1 da 1 ), and organic
fertilizers increase the N2 O ¯ux up to 3,488 gN2 O±N ha 1 da 1 .
There are many eects of CO2 on plants that manifest themselves by changes in
the nutrient regime of photosynthesis. Table 3.6 exempli®es this eect. Of course, the
elemental composition of a plant's body varies. It includes C, O, H, N, S, P, K, Ca,
Table 3.6. Changing content of nutrient elements in trees as a result of a 2-year impact of
changed CO2 concentrations for Acer pseudoplatanus (A) and Fugus sylvatica (F). From Bazzaz
(1986).
Chemical CO2 concentration (mmol/mol)

element
370 520 670
A F A F A F
N 1 1 1.09 1.11 1.17 1.21
P 1 1 1.10 1.33 1.20 1.50
K 1 1 1.15 1.21 1.27 1.33
Ca 1 1 1.17 1.13 1.25 1.23
Mg 1 1 1.14 1.22 1.29 1.22
Mn 1 1 1.00 1.08 1.07 1.25
Fe 1 1 1.43 1.17 1.54 1.50
Mg, Fe, and the exchange processes in the plant±atmosphere system include
chemical compounds, such as CO2 , CH4 , H2 O, H2 S, NH3 , and NO2 . A living
plant consists of 50%±95% of water, and the remaining part, the so-called dry
substance, includes 70%±98% of organic substances that can burn. In other words,
each plant on Earth plays a role of its own in the global biogeochemical cycle of CO2
and other chemical elements. Therefore, all the existing models of the CO2 cycle
based on rough classi®cations of soil±plant formations are incorrect, and their reli-
ability can hardly be assessed from the available data bases on vegetation cover and
its parameters.
DufreÃne et al. (2005) developed a model called ``Castanea'' of a forest ecosystem
consisting of Castanea savita and took into account the presence in the forest of the
multi-layer physiological processes connected with carbon ¯uxes. The model
describes the photosynthesis and transpiration of the forest canopy as well as the
division of assimilators between leaves, branches, trunks, and roots as a function of
evapotranspiration, heterotrophic respiration of soil, and soil balance of water and
carbon. Net primary production (NPP) was calculated as the dierence between
general photosynthesis and plant respiration. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE)
between the plant±soil system and the atmosphere was calculated as the dierence
between general photosynthesis and summed respiration (soil plant). Input
parameters for the model were global radiation, precipitation, wind speed, air
temperature, and humidity. The ``Castanea'' model needs 150 input parameters.
Uncertainty in the modeling results constituted 30% by NEE. This means that the
model of the forest ecosystem ``Castanea'' is able to describe ¯uxes of CO2 and N2 O
in the atmosphere±plant±soil system to a rather high accuracy. The problem remains
to reproduce to the same accuracy the spatial distribution of vegetation and calculate
the input parameters for the model (Davia et al., 2005).
Dan et al. (2005) developed the AVIM model which combines the physical and
biological components of the gas and energy exchange between the atmosphere and
vegetation cover. The model has a spatial resolution of 1.5 1.5 over the surface
and selects in the atmosphere pixels 7.5 by longitude and 4.5 by latitude. The model
gives stable results and can be used as a GMNSS unit.
Tundra and forest tundra biocenoses, which occupy about 4% of the global land
surface, are quite special. Their role in the assimilation or emission of CO2 is seasonal
in character. Tundra with its marshes, water basins, and lakes is a source of CO2 for
the Arctic atmosphere. The soils of the Arctic tundra play a special role in this
process. When snow melts they emit carbon monoxide (CO), and above the soil
surface the CO partial pressure can reach 100 ppm with a mean annual value of
0.05 ppm (Kelley, 1987). The CO concentration in air bubbles produced in water
bodies and lakes with a decaying biomass is estimated at 5 ppm±20 ppm. In spring, at
the level of tundra plants the CO partial pressure in the air reaches 40 ppm, markedly
decreasing by the end of summer. As a result, in spring, the CO2 partial pressure in
the near-surface atmosphere of the Arctic tundra can reach 2,100 ppm. What happens
in winter to the CO2 exchange at the atmosphere±tundra border is practically
unknown. But there are data on photosynthesis and the respiratory activity of tundra
vegetation, from which it follows that this activity continues even with illumination at
5 W m 2 da 1 ±7 W m 2 da 1 and a temperature below zero. This means that the
tundra vegetation in late summer and early winter can serve as a sink for atmospheric
CO2 . The sink of CO2 from the atmosphere due to assimilation by tundra vegetation
is estimated at 146 g m 2 da 1 .
Large carbon supplies (about 400 GtC±500 GtC) are concentrated in northern
soils and permafrosts which will escape in response to global warming. This necessi-
tates an analysis of the carbon balance dynamics in these territories. In particular, the
process of carbon storage by ecosystems in Alaska's tundra, which functioned as a
sink of carbon (due to low temperature and suciently high soil moisture content,
which favors a reduction in the rate of organic matter decomposition), changed
direction as a result of global warming and climate dehydration in the early 1980s,
and led to considerable losses of carbon. But, surprisingly, there are no reliable
estimates of changes in the elements of the regional balance of carbon taking place
in northern territories (Oechel et al., 2000).
The role of tropical ecosystems in the global carbon cycle is rather uncertain,
which is largely connected with the inadequately studied climatic impacts on carbon
¯uxes in these latitudes. Ichii et al. (2005) undertook an attempt to narrow these
uncertainties by analyzing carbon ¯uxes for the period 1982±1999 in the Amazon,
Africa, and Asia, using the Biome-BGC model developed at NCEP in the U.S.A.
It was established that the observed interannual change in tropical ecosystem produc-
tivity is mainly caused by changes in solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation.
It was shown that an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to an increase
in NPP, with solar radiation playing the dominating role in increasing the CO2 sink of
tropical forests.
Forest ecosystems in the Mediterranean basin play an important role in GCC

regulation (Chiesi et al., 2005). Therefore, many international programs on remote
studies of land covers in these latitudes pay special attention to the formation of
databases on the parameters and structures of vegetation in countries bordering the
Mediterranean.
To assess the role of soil±plant formations in the global cycle of CO2 ,
models should have their spatial classi®cation more detailed than is given, for ex-
ample, in Figure 3.8. Unfortunately, current databases lack such information in a
form acceptable for inclusion in the GMNSS. Therefore, published estimates of the
role of soil±plant formations in the global model of the CO2 cycle cannot be con-
sidered suciently accurate. However, the estimates of the role of land vegetation in
Russia in assimilating excess CO2 given in the work of Krapivin (1993) on the basis of
this classi®cation seem realistic.
Let R '; ; t be the photosynthesis production for vegetation of type at
latitude ' and longitude at time moment t. Then, the CO2 ¯ux from the atmosphere
to the living biomass can be described as
HC
6 '; ; t C23 R '; ; t;
where the coecient C23 re¯ects the eciency of the mechanism of the photosynthesis
response, which, on average, is estimated at C23 0.549. Bjorkstrom (1979)
estimated the assimilation of CO2 by vegetation with the formula:
HC
6 kb 1 lnCA =C A C ;
where the parameter 2 0; 1 is the measurement of the ability of the vegetation
system to react to an increase in atmospheric CO2 partial pressure; Ck is the
carbon content in the biomass of the kth type of vegetation; kb is the coecient of
the amount of CO2 that depends on temperature and the type of vegetation; and
C A is the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the pre-industrial
period.
Various authors estimate ¯ux H C 6 '; ; t between 16.7 GtC/yr and 35 GtC/yr.
This scatter of estimates is small enough to enable reliable estimation of the
coecients for approximating H C C
6 . A more detailed description of H 6 requires
construction of an additional model unit, one that takes into account the relationship
between CO2 concentration and the functioning of surface biomes in a given terri-
tory. Such speci®cations were made in publications by Krapivin and Vilkova (1990),
Nefedova and Tarko (1993), and Krapivin et al. (1996a, b). Empirical dependences
have been used to specify function R , as exempli®ed in Tables 3.7 and 3.8. The
database of the modeling system contains similar information as well as data on
the parameters for soil±plant formation. Of course, global data on the CO2 balance
in the biosphere are contradictory and incomplete. In Krapivin and Kondratyev
(2002) regression formulas are given that enable calculation of productivity
FTa ; W, humus supply HTa ; W, and phytomass supply BTa ; W as a function
2
Table 3.7. Dependence of annual production (kg m yr 1 ) on mean global temperature and
total precipitation amount, FTa ; W.
Precipitation, Atmospheric temperature, Ta ( C)

W (mm/yr)
14 10 6 2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30
3,125 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
2,875 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8
2,625 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
2,375 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
2,125 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,875 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
1,625 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
1,375 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0
1,125 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
875 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
625 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
375 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
125 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
of atmospheric temperature Ta ( C) and precipitation W (mm/yr):
FTa ; W 4:25 10 4 T 3a 8:76W 3 1:99T 2a W 4:29Ta W 2 2:29T 2a 19:05W 2

8:79Ta W 4:56Ta 14:16W 4:18;
HTa ; W 5:16T 3a 161:4W 3 9:41T 2a W 6:79Ta W 2 9:47T 2a 199:51W 2
4:37Ta W 7:47Ta 44:17W 4:93;
BTa ; W 9:02T 3a 225:79W 3 1:11T 2a W 29:39Ta W 2 5:87T 2a 511:72W 2
41:29Ta W 11:37Ta 356:97W 62:94:
The interaction of vegetation and the atmosphere is characterized by the CO2

¯ux H C
7 that results from the process of respiration. Therefore, if T denotes the loss
of gross production by vegetation of type k in the process of respiration, then
HC7 C26 T . As a ®rst approximation we can take T B , where B is the
Table 3.8. Dependence of humus content (kg/m 2 ) in a 1 m layer of soil on mean annual
temperature and total precipitation amount HTa ; W.
Precipitation, Temperature, Ta ( C)
W (mm/yr)
14 10 6 2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26
3,000 21.9 21.8 21.2 21.1 19.8
2,750 22.4 22.4 22.4 21.2 20.3
2,500 22.5 22.5 22.4 21.3 20.6
2,250 22.6 22.6 22.5 21.5 20.7
2,000 22.7 22.7 22.7 21.5 20.9
1,750 22.8 22.7 22.7 21.6 21.1
1,500 15.6 22.8 22.8 22.7 21.6 21.3
1,250 6.0 6.1 16.2 23.2 23.0 22.9 21.7 21.4
1,000 5.0 5.0 6.5 6.1 16.9 25.8 24.1 23.1 22.5 22.2
750 1.0 5.5 6.0 11.0 21.5 35.1 25.1 24.0 23.1 23.1 22.3
500 1.0 6.1 7.4 9.1 19.1 58.3 45.1 23.3 19.2 14.3 18.2
250 1.1 6.1 7.5 11.0 13.5 14.3 10.1 5.2 3.4 1.1 1.0
vegetation biomass, and the product C26 re¯ects the share of organic carbon emitted
per unit time at the surface of the vegetation cover to the atmosphere.
The functioning of the atmosphere±land border in the process of CO2 exchange
includes other ¯uxes H C C C
9 , H 14 , and H 15 , which play an important role in the carbon
balance of the biosphere. Bjorkstrom (1979) used the following relationships to
describe these ¯uxes in his model of the biospheric balance of CO2 :
HC
9 B =9 ; HC C
14 H 15 B =14;15 ;
where 9 characterizes the carbon cycle in thesoil; and 14;15 is the characteristic time
for carbon in a living biomass to transit to the soil (about 1,000 years). If RQ denotes
the rate of humus decomposition and M is the rate of vegetation decay, then
HC C C
9 C30 RQ , H 14 C18 M , H 15 C15 B .
With the carbon supply in forest litter equal to 421.1 t/km 2 , from which
12.95 t/km 2 are annually leached into the soil, with 82.5% of this amount remaining
in the upper soil layer (which can be up to 8 cm thick), we get C18 0.31.
Flux H C
9 has a more complicated dependence on environmental parameters such
as soil temperature and humidity. In the global model H C 9 is assumed to be a linear
increasing function. The non-linear eects are considered to be due to heterogeneity

of the types of soils manifested through the process of oxidation of organic matter.
The most inert system is peat which covers about 4.3 10 6 km 2 and contains 860 Gt of
organic carbon. Under stable conditions the organic substance of the soil in the
process of oxidation emits CO2 and accumulates the same amount of carbon in
the process of plant decay:
H C C C C C
9 H 14 H 15 H 12 H 13 :
For peat bogs and tropical forests this balance is not observed. The soil in
tropical forests emits CO2 at a rate almost twice as high as the rate of CO2 input
to the soil from dead plant matter.
To complete a model of the atmosphere±soil CO2 exchange, it is necessary to take
into account the geophysical and demographic aspects of the formation of additional
carbon ¯uxes. They include volcanic emanations (H C C
5 ), rock weathering (H 4 ), day-
C C C C
to-day living activity of animals (H 11 ; H 13 ), and humans (H 10 ; H 12 ), as well as
vegetation burning (H C 8 ). Though some of these nowadays do not play a substantial
role in the total balance of CO2 , an account of them is necessary to improve model
response under conditions of stress simulation. In models, ¯ux H C 5 is usually assumed
to be a function of time, and have spatial coordinates ' and . Fluxes H C i
(i 10; . . . ; 13) are considered to be proportional to the size of population G and
animals F: H C C C C
10 C3 G, H 11 C2 F, H 12 C22 G, H 13 C21 F.
C
With respect to ¯ux H 4 , in the process of weathering of silicate rocks the rate of
CO2 extraction from the atmosphere is negligible compared with the similar process
for carbonate rocks. Therefore, let us consider the contribution of such rocks to ¯ux
HC 2
4 . Under equilibrium conditions the relationship [Ca ][HCO3 ] /pa const
2
2
is valid. Usually, 2[Ca ] [HCO3 ], and therefore we have ([HCO3 ]/[HCO3 ]
Dpa =pa 1 1=3 1.
Flux H C 8 re¯ects anthropogenic interference with the global cycle of carbon
dioxide. The formation of industrial CO2 can be described rather precisely as follows:
HC C 6
1 H 8 0 exprt ;
where r 0.029 yr 1 .
The land carbon cycle is, of course, more complicated. Hence, the many carbon
¯uxes in Table 3.3 should be considered as characterizing the more detailed structure
of carbon exchange in the atmosphere±plant±soil system. Detailing the land carbon
cycle can be done by dividing the body of plants and soil into constituents. This
process requires extensive knowledge of biogeochemical parameters, which, on a
global scale, is only possible in the form of average estimates of phytomass, biomass
of stems and roots, and supplies of organic matter in leaf litter and humus. Of course,
information on the extent of soil erosion is important. For instance, in Afghanistan
about 80% of the soil is eroded. And though this process is natural, the anthro-
pogenic impact on soils accelerates it. The FAO estimates the global loss of produc-
tive land through erosion at (5±7) 10 6 ha yr 1 . Therefore, consideration in the
GMNSS of such data over all regions will make it possible to raise the accuracy
of estimates of the CO2 sink on land.
3.6 GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE MODEL AND NUMERICAL RESULTS
3.6.1 The role of vegetation in assimilation of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Land biota is a sink of atmospheric CO2 . Change in the structure of land cover is a
critically important and dangerous anthropogenic process. In fact, the NPP ratio
between various vegetation communities can change by as much as 45 times. For
instance, swapping tropical rainforest for savannah or deciduous temperate forest for
temperate grassland can decrease the sink of atmospheric CO2 in these territories by a
factor of 3 and 1.7, respectively. In the case of swapping tropical rainforest for desert,
the sink of CO2 is reduced by a factor of 4.5. Such changes are currently taking place
in many regions of the globe and their consequences have already been estimated
(Maddox, 1999; Terborgh. 1992; Wilson, 2002). For example, in Brazil, during the
period 2000±2006 the size of forest reduced by more than 150,000 km 2 . Unfortu-
nately, available data and knowledge of the processes of plant respiration make it
possible to obtain only rough integrated quantities of CO2 ¯uxes in the vegetation
cover. In fact, the role of plants in the daily assimilation of atmospheric CO2 varies
abruptly and is a complex function of such environmental factors as temperature,
illumination, and air humidity. Nevertheless, parameterizations of the functions of
vegetation carried out in Kondratyev and Krapivin (2004a) help assessment of the
role of all types of soil±plant formations in CO2 assimilation, as given in Table 3.9.
Figure 3.9 shows the role of forest vegetation in CO2 dynamics. In addition to
these results, note that experiments with global models make it possible to trace the
dependence of the composition of atmospheric gas on the structure of planetary
forest cover. From the available estimates, the total area of forests for t0 1970
can be estimated at L0 L t0 40.3±41.84 10 6 km 2 (Watson et al., 2000), 1%
constituting national parks and forest reserves. With the formulated scenario, let us
assume tL 2050, X0 X t0 19.5 10 6 km 2 . As can be seen from Figure 3.6, the
increasing rate of deforestation raises considerably the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere. Even with a 10% reduction of forest areas by 2050 compared with 1970
(i.e., L1 =L0 0.9), atmospheric CO2 can increase by 44% by the end of the 21st
century. In contrast, a 10% increase in forested areas decreases the concentration of
atmospheric CO2 by 15%. With a 50% increase in forested areas by 2050, the
decrease of atmospheric CO2 by 2100 will constitute 60% relative to its possible
value, with the scale of impacts on the forest ecosystems observed at the end of the
20th century preserved. Hence, variations in the size the forested areas in the
biosphere even within 10% can substantially change the dynamics of numerous
components of the global ecosystem.
Table 3.10 exempli®es the calculation of CO2 sinks into the vegetation cover of
Russia. Such calculations using the GMNSS demonstrate the dynamics of the CO2
¯ux mosaic in the atmosphere±plant±soil system. Knowledge of this mosaic makes it
possible to assess the role of speci®c types of soil±plant formations in the regional
balance of carbon, and on this basis to calculate the global ¯uxes of carbon dioxide
across the atmosphere±land border. Similar calculations are also possible for the
atmosphere±ocean system.
Sec. 3.6] 3.6 Global carbon cycle model and numerical results 199
Table 3.9. Identi®ers of the types of soil±plant formations in Figure 3.8. From Bazilevich and
Rodin (1967).
Type of soil±plant formation Identi®er
Arctic desert and tundra A
Alpine desert B
Tundra C
Mid-taiga forest D
Pampas and grass savannah E
North taiga forest F
South taiga forest F
Sub-tropical desert G
Sub-tropical and tropical grass±tree scrub of tugai type I
Tropical savannah J
Saline land K
Forest tundra L
Mountain tundra M
Tropical xerophytic open woodland N
Aspen±birch sub-taiga forest O
Sub-tropical broadleaved and coniferous forest P
Alpine and sub-alpine meadow Q
Broadleaved coniferous forest R
Sub-boreal and saltwort desert S
Tropical desert T
Xerophytic open woodland and shrub U
Dry steppe V
Moderately arid and arid (mountain included) steppe W
Forest steppe (meadow steppe) X
Variably humid deciduous tropical forest Y
Humid evergreen tropical forest Z
Broadleaved forest sub-tropical semi-desert &
Sub-boreal and wormwood desert @
Mangrove forest #
Lack of vegetation *
Figure 3.8. The spatial distribution of soil±plant formations over the 4 5 geographical grid
and their representation by pixels in the GMNSS spatial structure. Identi®ers of the types of
soil±plant formations are explained in Table 3.9.
Table 3.11 demonstrates the consequences of changing the global structure of

soil±plant formations for the dynamics of CO2 assimilation by vegetation. As can be
seen, anthropogenic change in the vegetation cover substantially changes the balance
of components in the global carbon cycle. Clearly, such experiments require thorough
analysis of the data on the consequences of transforming vegetation cover by taking
climatic zones and biocenological consistency into account. Nevertheless, such
hypothetical experiments are useful for general assessment of the possible range of
Figure 3.9. The dynamics of CO2 concentration for dierent scenarios of changing forest areas:
1, rates of changes in forest areas remain at the 1970 level; 2, by 2050 all forests will have gone; 3,
by 2050 the area of forest is reduced by 50%; 4, by 10%; 5, by 2050 the area of forest increases by
50%; 6, by 10%. From Demirchian et al. (2002).
anthropogenic impacts on the global carbon cycle. For instance, natural and anthro-
pogenic cataclysms as a consequence of forest ®res introduce annually considerable
changes to this cycle, especially in the numerous ¯uxes and supplies of carbon over
large territories. Tables 3.12±3.14 give estimates of deviations in the content of
carbon in the basic biospheric reservoirs as a result of forest ®res in dierent zones.
Large-scale impacts on land biota are damped during 60±100 years. The biosphere
turns out to be more resistant to impacts on forests in southern latitudes and
more sensitive to violations of forest areas in temperate latitudes. Hence, Northern
Hemisphere forests up to 42 N play an important role in stabilizing the carbon cycle
in the biosphere.
The scenario of forest destruction, as typi®ed in the works of many authors,
evokes great interest in studies of the global carbon cycle and associated climate
change. The range of possible real situations in the transformation of land cover is so
large that it is impossible to assess all the consequences. Nevertheless, note that
destruction of all northern taiga and mid-taiga forests (types F, D) in the next 50
years would lead to a 53% increase in atmospheric CO2 with subsequent negative
consequences for ¯ux H C 6 . Similar consequences follow after the loss of all wet
evergreen and deciduous tropical forests (types Z, Y). But in this case the indicated
increase of atmospheric CO2 would be reached 20 years later.
Structural changes to the land cover are not exclusively due to human activity.
In some regions of the globe, hurricanes introduce considerable changes in the carbon
balance of forest ecosystems. For example, in the U.S.A. two hurricanes happen on
average every three years, which accelerates the transition of the living biomass of
Table 3.10. The dynamics of CO2 assimilation by plants in Russia. The emission of carbon to
plants in this territory in 1990 is assumed to be 1.6 GtC/yr with the annual change following
Keeling's scenario. From Krapivin and Vilkova (1990).
Vegetation formation Rate of CO2 assimilation (10 6 tC/yr)

(see Table 3.9)
1990 2000 2050 2100 2150
A 2.6 2.8 6.7 7.1 6.9
C 3.7 4.6 10.9 12.0 12.1
M 4.0 5.1 12.4 14.5 13.8
L 3.2 3.9 9.2 10.3 10.4
F 11.2 14.8 43.6 47.2 44.2
D 31.6 39.9 110.6 121.9 109.3
G 23.3 29.2 72.2 73.4 70.5
R 5.2 6.2 13.1 13.8 10.7
W 4.7 5.1 8.2 8.8 7.9
V 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8
@ 2.4 2.6 3.7 3.9 2.9
S 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.0
Q 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.8
Total 94.7 206.1 294.9 317.7 292.3
trees into dead organic matter. If 20 TgC are removed from U.S. forests every
year, then 10%±15% of this is the result of a single hurricane (McNulty, 2002).
Hence, hurricanes accelerate the return of carbon to the atmosphere, and their global
inventory is needed to more accurately estimate the many components of the global
carbon cycle.
3.6.2 The role of the World Ocean in carbon dioxide assimilation from
the atmosphere
Estimation of the extent to which the World Ocean assimilates CO2 from the atmo-
sphere, as in the case of land, is only possible by spatially integrating the dierence
between ¯uxes H C C
3 and H 2 . Table 3.15 gives average estimates of this dierence. Even
with these rough estimates, we can see the mosaic character of the role of various
Table 3.11. The dynamics of the ratio of integral rates of (H C

6 ) CO2 assimilation by vegetation
cover from the atmosphere with the natural distribution of soil±plant formations (Figure 3.8)
and with its transformation according to the scenario in the second column.
Scenario HC C
6 (changed Figure 3.8)/H 6 (Figure 3.8)
Figure 3.8 Changed Figure 3.8 2003 2020 2050
A L 2.79 2.40 1.97
C L 0.96 0.94 0.95
M L 1.67 1.15 1.01
F D 1.68 1.57 1.11
G D 2.11 1.67 1.45
R D 3.98 3.70 2.87
P Z 3.17 2.68 2.43
U Z 22.52 20.73 17.95
W Z 23.12 19.44 16.32
E Z 100.14 77.75 68.54
H Z 194.56 155.50 138.39
Q Z 799.14 777.50 751.26
Y Z 1.43 1.39 1.23
N Z 69.98 62.20 56.59
J Z 5.89 5.09 4.67
T Z 26.54 25.92 23.58
I Z 17.88 16.37 14.91
# Z 0.91 1.12 0.97
basins of the World Ocean for atmospheric CO2 assimilation. The water basins in
northern latitudes and in the zone of upwellings are of key importance. Coldwater
basins in southern latitudes remain little known, despite (as in the Arctic Ocean) large
territories being covered with ice. From available estimates, DH32 0.006 GtC/yr for
ice-covered water basins and 0.022 GtC/yr for ice-free water bodies.
Some ideas about the role the World Ocean plays in CO2 assimilation from the
atmosphere can be obtained from the data in Figures 3.10 and 3.11. Figure 3.12 gives
Table 3.12. Model estimates of the deviation in carbon content in the event of all coniferous
forests in the Northern Hemisphere (up to 42 N) being destroyed by ®re.
Years after impact Deviations in carbon content (Gt)
Atmosphere Soil Upper ocean Deep ocean
0 140.9 5.4 15.5 0.1
10 104.8 33.1 29.8 3.1
20 83.1 44.1 21.5 7.4
30 63.4 43.5 19.0 8.5
40 47.2 39.7 14.6 10.4
50 34.2 34.6 11.6 11.7
60 24.1 29.4 8.3 12.7
70 16.3 24.7 6.2 13.5
80 10.2 20.5 4.5 14.0
90 5.6 17.1 3.3 14.3
100 2.1 14.2 2.3 14.5
200 9.0 3.4 0.8 13.5
Figure 3.10. Distribution of the depth of the upper quasi-homogeneous layer of the World
Ocean at latitudinal zones 0 ±10 N (solid curve) and 60 N±70 N (dashed curve).
Table 3.13. Model estimates of the deviation in carbon content in the event of all forests in the
Northern Hemisphere (up to 42 N) being destroyed by ®re.
0 230.8 7.9 24.9 0.1
10 173.2 30.9 47.9 4.9
20 138.9 67.6 39.2 10.0
30 107.9 89.3 31.1 13.8
40 82.0 64.3 24.1 16.8
50 60.9 56.9 18.4 19.1
60 44.2 49.0 13.9 20.7
70 31.1 41.6 10.3 21.9
80 20.9 35.0 7.5 22.8
90 12.9 29.4 5.4 23.3
100 6.9 24.7 3.7 23.6
200 12.7 5.9 1.7 21.7
Figure 3.11. The annual distribution of carbon ¯ux across the atmosphere±ocean border in
dierent latitudinal zones.
Table 3.14. Model estimates of the deviation in carbon content in the event of all tropical
forests being destroyed by ®re.
0 396.0 20.0 42.2 0.2
10 261.6 93.7 73.9 8.0
20 162.2 84.8 48.0 14.9
30 90.6 38.6 28.2 19.1
40 45.3 36.5 15.0 21.3
50 18.3 21.6 7.5 22.4
60 2.9 12.4 3.0 22.8
70 5.8 7.0 0.5 22.8
80 10.6 4.2 0.9 22.6
90 13.2 2.6 1.7 22.5
100 14.5 1.9 2.1 21.8
200 13.2 2.3 1.9 17.7
Figure 3.12. Longitude-averaged rates of atmospheric CO2 assimilation by both land and
ocean ecosystems with two scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of carbon: 6.26 GtC/yr
(dashed curve, 2000) and 10.6 GtC/yr (solid curve, predicted for 2020). Notation:
HA DH32 H C 6 H4
C
HC8 HC7 HC 1
9 (GtC yr ).
Table 3.15. The spatial distribution of DH32 H C 3 HC2

2
(GtC/km /solar year) estimated from averaged values of the
assimilation and emission of CO2 at the atmosphere±ocean
border since the beginning of industrialization ( is the area
of the World Ocean basin, 10 6 km 2 ).
Water basin DH32

South Atlantic Ocean 28.80 0.00138
Equatorial Atlantic Ocean 32.38 0.00285
North Atlantic Ocean 26.01 0.01025
South Paci®c Ocean 49.85 0.00531
Equatorial Paci®c Ocean 88.81 0.00323
North Paci®c Ocean 32.45 0.00846
South Indian Ocean 49.63 0.00538
Equatorial Indian Ocean 32.85 0.00592
Arctic Ocean 7.47 0.00131
The World Ocean 348.23 0.00154
the spatial distribution of CO2 assimilated from the atmosphere which accounts for
the combined role of land and ocean ecosystems. We can see that the general role of
the environment in stabilizing the CO2 content in the atmosphere only slightly varies
while the amount of carbon increases considerably. This means that the natural
medium preserves persistent feedbacks and the level of variability in the way land
and ocean systems react to a marked increase in anthropogenic loads on the atmo-
sphere remains stable. Detailed analysis of such reactions shows that a 60% increase
in anthropogenic carbon ¯ux during the next 20 years will result in a 4.8% increase of
CO2 ¯ux from the tropical water basins of the World Ocean to the atmosphere, but
the absorptivity of the ecosystems in northern latitudes will increase by 12.3%. The
role of land ecosystems in assimilating excess carbon from the atmosphere will
increase by 11.4%, and the role of Arctic waters by 13.2%. As a result, in 2020
the following amounts of carbon will be assimilated from the atmosphere:
25.7 10 6 tC by the south taiga forests; 35.1 10 6 tC by the mid-taiga forests, and
10.7 10 6 tC by tundra ecosystems.
3.6.3 Long-term memory eect in atmospheric CO2 concentration

3.6.3.1 Introduction
A very important aspect of the climate problem consists in recognizing anthropo-
genically induced changes caused by increased CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. In
this connection, highly uncertain quantitative estimates of anthropogenic impacts on

global climate deserve special attention (Berger and Dameris, 1993; Hein et al., 2001;
Dameris et al., 2005).
Recent years have been marked by the undoubtedly growing interest (among the
media, politicians, and the general public) in the complex study of atmospheric CO2
and the need to obtain reliable estimates of the CO2 (both natural and anthropogenic)
impact on global climate. The global climate numerical simulation performed
recently which considered not only anthropogenically induced growth of greenhouse
gas (GHG) concentrations, but also the increasing content in the atmosphere of
anthropogenic sulfate aerosol revealed a much more complicated pattern of climate
formation than was previously thought: aerosol-induced climate cooling compen-
sates greenhouse warming to a certain extent (Kondratyev and Varotsos, 1995;
Varotsos, 2002).
One of the main uncertainties and diculties in assessing the role of atmospheric
CO2 in climate change has to do with the absence of adequate information about its
temporal variability, and, in particular, whether CO2 observations remain residually
correlated with one another even after many years (long-range dependence).
In an attempt to address these questions, a modern method of statistical physics
was recently applied by Varotsos et al. (2007) to CO2 observations made at Mauna
Loa, Hawaii. The necessity to employ a modern method of CO2 data analysis stems
from the fact that most atmospheric quantities obey non-linear laws, which usually
generate non-stationarities. These non-stationarities often conceal existing correla-
tions between the examined time series and therefore, instead of applying the con-
ventional Fourier spectral analysis to atmospheric time series, new analytical
techniques capable of eliminating non-stationarities in the data should be utilized
(Hu et al., 2001; Chen et al., 2002; Grytsai et al., 2005).
Wavelet techniques (Koscielny-Bunde et al., 1998) and detrended ¯uctuation
analysis (DFA) (Peng et al., 1994) are among the most recently used tools along
these lines. Recently, much attention has been paid to DFA, because it has already
proved its usefulness in a wide variety of complex systems (e.g., Stanley, 1999;
Talkner and Weber, 2000; Varotsos et al., 2003a, b, 2005; Chen et al., 2005; Varotsos
and Kirk-Davido, 2006). More information about the DFA method is given in
Section 3.6.3.2.
3.6.3.2 Methodology and data analysis

The data employed by Varotsos et al. (2007) have been continuouslly collected at
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (19 32 0 N, 155 35 0 W) since 1958. Four air samples
are collected each hour and are analyzed by infrared spectroscopy for CO2 concen-
trations. The Mauna Loa site is considered one of the most favorable locations for
measuring undisturbed air because any possible local in¯uences as a result of vegeta-
tion or human activities on atmospheric CO2 concentrations are minimal and any
in¯uences from volcanic vents may be excluded from the records. The methods and
equipment used to obtain these measurements have remained essentially unchanged
during the 47-year monitoring program (Keeling and Whorf, 2005). The averaged
mean monthly values of CO2 concentrations are now analyzed by employing the
DFA method, which is brie¯y described below.
According to the DFA method, the time series yt is ®rst integrated and then
divided into boxes of equal length, Dt. In each box, a least squares line (or polynomial
curve of order l, DFA-l) is then ®tted, in order to detrend the integrated time series
by subtracting the locally ®tted trend in each box. The root-mean-square (rms)
¯uctuation Fd Dt of this integrated and detrended time series is calculated over
all timescales (box sizes).
More speci®cally, the detrended ¯uctuation function F is calculated as
follows:

1 X
k1
N
F 2 yt zt 2 ; k 0; 1; 2; . . . ; 1 ;

tk1
where zt at b is the linear least squares ®t to the data points contained in a
class.
For scaling dynamics, the averaged F 2 over N= intervals with length is
expected to obey a power law, notably
hF 2 i 2a
and the power spectrum function scales with 1=f , with 2a 1 (Kantelhardt et
al., 2002).
The slope a of the line on a log-log plot relating the average ¯uctuation and the
box size indicates the plausible presence of power law scaling. A slope a 6 12 implies
the existence of long-range correlations, while a 12 corresponds to the classical
random walk. If 0 < a < 0:5, power law anticorrelations are present (antipersistence).
If 0:5 < a 1:0, long-range power law correlations prevail; the case a 1 corre-
sponds to so-called 1=f noise. In addition, when 1 < a < 1:5, long-range correlations
are again present (but are stronger than in the previous case) (e.g., Talkner and
Weber, 2000).
It is worth recalling that a time series is said to exhibit long-range correlations
when some of its properties at dierent times are correlated and its correlation
function decays much slower than exponential decay (e.g., power law decay). It
would be of interest to mention that wavelet-based estimators of self-similarity or
of a long-range dependence scaling exponent lead to larger (smaller) mean squared
errors for short (long) time series compared with DFA that is not wavelet-based
(Chen et al., 2005).
3.6.3.3 Application of DFA to the CO2 time series

According to Varotsos et al. (2007) we begin the analysis of the time series (shown in
Figure 3.13) by investigating whether the CO2 concentration at dierent times is
actually correlated. The motivation for this investigation stems from the observation
that many environmental quantities have values which remain residually correlated
with one another even after many years (long-range dependence).
Figure 3.13. Time series of CO2 concentration observed at Mauna Loa Observatory, during
1958±2004.
It is a truism that the standard tool to address this question is to derive the
correlation function and the corresponding power spectrum (or frequency spectrum
spectral density) of the time series, which is simply the Fourier transform of the
autocorrelation function. Usually, short-range correlations are described by the
autocorrelation function, which declines exponentially with a certain decay time.
In contrast, long-range correlations (long-range dependence) imply that the auto-
correlation function declines as a power law in time rather than exponentially. The
latter has the following meaning: a correctly rescaled subset of the original time series
resembles the original time series. However, direct calculation of the autocorrelation
function is usually not appropriate due to noise superimposed on the collected data
and due to underlying trends of unknown origin. Furthermore, in practice, we do not
know the appropriate scaling transformation factors, in advance, or whether they
exist. To this end, we analyze the data following the steps of DFA (described in
Section 3.6.3.2).
The application of DFA-1 to the deseasonalized and detrended CO2 concentra-
tion time series reveals a 1:05 0:04 (Figure 3.14) for timescales between 4 months
to 11 years. The same results are also found by using a polynomial ®t of order l
(DFA-l) to the same time series of CO2 concentrations. More speci®cally, going from
DFA-1 to DFA-5, the a-value was found to range from 0.98 to 1.08. Therefore, the
¯uctuations in CO2 concentrations exhibit 1=f -type long-range persistence. The
strong persistence found signi®es that the ¯uctuations in CO2 concentration, from
small time intervals to larger ones (up to 11 years) are positively correlated in a power
law fashion. In other words, persistence refers to the memory or internal correlation
within the CO2 concentration time series. For example, there is a tendency for an
increase in CO2 concentration to be followed by another increase in CO2 concentra-
tion at a dierent time in a power law fashion. The latter conclusion illustrates that
the correlations between the ¯uctuations in CO2 concentration do not obey classical
Markov-type stochastic behavior (decrease exponentially with time), but exhibit
more slowly decaying correlations.
Figure 3.14. Log-log plot of the DFA function vs. the temporal interval Dt (in months) for
detrended and deseasonalized CO2 concentrations, during 1958±2004.
It is worthwhile clarifying at this point that the persistence found above

provides, in principle, a forecast for CO2 concentration, which assumes that the
value of the CO2 concentration in the following time interval (up to 11 years) will
be the same as in the corresponding current time interval. This obviously has a
dierent meaning from the conventional forecast in climatology, which assumes that
the value of CO2 concentration in the following, say, 11 years will be the same as the
overall climatological CO2 concentration mean.
Finally, Varotsos et al. (2007) investigated whether the persistence found in CO2
concentration time series stems from their own values of CO2 concentrations and not
from their time evolution. Therefore, they shued the deseasonalized and detrended
CO2 concentrations. If the shued CO2 values follow the random walk, then the
persistence found above comes not from data, but from their time evolution. Indeed,
application of the DFA-1 to the shued CO2 data gives a 0:49 0:02, which
reveals that shued deseasonalized and detrended CO2 data are practically uncorre-
lated (Figure 3.15). Therefore, the power-law relationship derived from the real
measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations eventually stems from their time
evolution. The latter could also be used to test the scaling performance of climate
prediction models under dierent scenarios of carbon dioxide levels (Ebel, 2001;
Govindan et al., 2002).
3.6.3.4 Conclusions
Long-range correlations of the ¯uctuations of CO2 concentrations measured at
Mauna Loa, Hawaii during 1958±2004 were investigated by applying the DFA
method. The main ®nding is that ¯uctuations in CO2 concentrations exhibit 1=f -
type long-range persistence, which means that the ¯uctuations in CO2 concentrations,
from small time intervals to larger ones (up to 11 years), are positively correlated in a
power law fashion. In other words, persistence refers to the memory or internal
correlation within the CO2 concentration time series up to the timescale of the
Figure 3.15. Log-log plot of the DFA function vs. temporal interval Dt (in months) for
detrended and deseasonalized CO2 concentrations, during 1958±2004.
11- year solar cycle. This scaling comes from time evolution and not from the values
of carbon dioxide data. Scale invariance and 1=f noise are considered to be the
signatures of complex systems. The scaling property detected in real observations
of CO2 concentrations could be used to test the scaling performance of the leading
global climate models under dierent scenarios of CO2 levels and to improve the
performance of atmospheric chemistry transport models.
4
Modeling the interactive cycles of greenhouse
gases and other chemicals
4.1 BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The stability of the biosphere as a global ecosystem and its self-regulating ability are
determined by the cyclic character of the processes of exchange between matter,
energy, and information that take place within it and are brought about as a result
of incoming solar energy and the activity of living substances. These processes
manifest themselves through the following three basic forms:
(1) The biological cycle covers all biophyllic elements and vitally important micro-
elements and is characterized by selection of the lightweight isotopes of carbon,
hydrogen, nitrogen, and sulfur from heavier forms.
(2) The water cycle in the biosphere determines the planetary transitions of various
components such as aerosols, micro-organisms, and dissolved and suspended
substances.
(3) The processes of erosion, chemical denudation, transition, sedimentation, and
accumulation of mechanical and chemical deposits on land and in the ocean
provide the global circulation of matter and energy.
Therefore, any discussion of the greenhouse eect cannot be constructive without

complex consideration of the feedbacks of the CO2 cycle and the biogeochemical
processes in the presence of other elements such as nitrogen, sulfur, phosphorus,
methane, ozone, water, and others (Fasham, 2003; Stevenson and Cole, 1999; Melillo
et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2005a, b). The processes of CO2 assimilation from the
atmosphere are aected by numerous natural and anthropogenic factors manifested
through a long chain of cause-and-eect bonds. For instance, acid rain aects the
state of the vegetation cover and the latter aects CO2 exchange at the atmosphere±
land boundary. The use of nitrogen ( 90 10 6 tN yr 1 ) and phosphorus fertilizers in
agriculture means cultivated plants assimilate atmospheric CO2 dierently, and
214 Modeling the interactive cycles of greenhouse gases and other chemicals [Ch. 4
aects the rates of decomposition of soil organic matter. Moreover, manure used in
agriculture is an important source of greenhouse gases such as CH4 and N2 O. Park et
al. (2006) studied the ¯uxes of CH4 and N2 O from supplies of liquid pig manure
under cold-climate conditions at an annual mean temperature below 10 C at farms in
Ontario (Canada) for the period 2000±2002. At an annual mean air temperature of
8.4 C the manure temperature was, on average, higher by 4 C, and the average
content of dry matter in the manure and decomposition potential ranged between
0.6%±3% and 232 mV±333 mV. Average ¯uxes of N2 O changed depending on the
farm from 0 mg m 2 s 1 to 337.6 mg m 2 s 1 in summer and to 101.8 mg m 2 s 1 in
winter. Monthly mean ¯uxes of CH4 ranged between 4.6 10 3 ±1.05 mg m 2 s 1 . If
we had such data for the globe we would be able to specify the structure of the
biogeochemical cycle of GHGs.
However, the complexity of the biogeochemical cycles of GHGs and estimates of
how well they are understood indicate the necessity of caution when predicting global
changes and the development of new information technologies to study these cycles in
correlation with other global processes. Developed countries are spending vast
amounts on creating information bases capable of providing reliable predictions
of climate change. But, practically all international programs targeting this are
investigating parts of the overall scheme. For instance, the scienti®c priorities of
the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) program include
. determining how changes in basin-scale forcing aect the dynamics of the North
Paci®c Drift Current and how these dynamics aect the nutrient and carbon-
trapping capacity of the California Current System;
. understanding the imbalance between nitrogen ®xation and denitri®cation (the
marine nitrogen cycle) and its relationship to the ability of the oceanic biological
pump to sequester anthropogenic carbon dioxide;
. quantifying how regime shifts interact with seasonal and stochastic variability to
produce extreme events such as the recent coccolithophorid bloom in the Bering
Sea and basin-scale hypoxia (Murata and Takizawa, 2002; Weeks et al., 2004).
Unfortunately, even a complex program such as the GCP cannot resolve the
problem of accessing enough information for reliable prediction of global change.
However, one technology capable of constructively resolving this problem is the
GIMS (Kondratyev et al., 2000, 2002b, 2004a; Nitu et al., 2004; Krapivin et al.,
2006).
On the whole, many chemical elements, especially GHGs, getting into the
environment from anthropogenic sources, become the object not only of biogeo-
chemical analysis but also of economic consideration. Such a multi-purpose analysis
in connection with CH4 was carried out at the Second International Conference in
Novosibirsk in 2000 (Bazhin, 2000; Byakola, 2000). Similar analyses to that of CH4
need to be done with other GHGs, and then all should be thoroughly systematized
and parameterized. Otherwise, it is impossible to speak about any reliable assessment
of the role of the biosphere in assimilating excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Complex
studies in this direction are being carried out, for instance, in several laboratories in
Sec. 4.1] 4.1 Biogeochemical cycles and the greenhouse eect 215
the U.S.A. and Europe (Friedrich, 2001). Measurements of the spatiotemporal dis-
tributions of gases related to the global CO2 cycle are being taken onboard ¯ying
laboratories and on specialized stationary platforms. The accumulation of such data
will make it possible to reveal the dependences needed for the global model. However,
the U.S.A. has taken an irreconcilable stand with respect to the Kyoto Protocol
despite the fact that CO2 emissions from their territory are responsible for almost
25% (541 10 7 tCO2 yr 1 ) of all global anthropogenic sources. In March 2001,
President Bush said he wouldn't be ratifying the Kyoto Protocol because it could
signi®cantly damage the country ®nancially. He was also concerned about the press-
ure on `ìndustrialized'' countries to cut back on carbon dioxide, while developing
countries weren't expected to cut theirs back too. Emissions in America have con-
tinued to rise and are now 11% higher than in 1990, even though when they did
temporarily sign up to Kyoto, they promised a 6% reduction.
All this con®rms the fact that fragmentary studies of the global carbon cycle (i.e.,
not based on a complex global model such as that described in Krapivin and
Kondratyev, 2002) will always raise doubts. For global conclusions, like those made
in the Kyoto Protocol recommendations, we need to be sure that the predicted global
consequences are accurate. Nevertheless, such conclusions and assessments are neces-
sary. Unfortunately, most international programs on the subject are not aimed at the
development of global modeling technology and do not encourage specialists to
formulate numerical NSS models.
Existing global models are simple and inadequately supported by databases.
Three directions for global modeling to follow were described in the works of
Kondratyev et al. (2002b) and Boysen (2000). In each of them one or several com-
ponents are absent, but on the whole, conceptually they are mutually additive. This
makes it possible to combine them and, hence, to derive a global model that takes
into account the most important processes in the nature±society system. One of them
is the gas exchange between the atmosphere and vegetation cover (described in global
models at a very high level). Nevertheless, models of the land ecosystem have recently
appeared, such as Biome-GCP, Forest-GCP, or TsuBiMo (Wang et al., 2005;
Alexandrov et al., 2005) which simulate the supplies and ¯uxes of energy, water,
hydrogen, and nitrogen in the vegetation cover, leaf litter, and soil, which enables us
to specify the role of land in regulating the radiation balance of the atmosphere±
plant±soil system. In particular, Wang et al. (2005a, b) studied the ¯uxes of H2 O,
CO2 , and nitrogen in the plains of north China from data on vegetation and soils for
2002 and showed that the Biome-GCP model reliably assesses the response of land
ecosystems to anthropogenic interference with the natural balance of water, carbon,
and nitrogen. Without any interference these ecosystems are in a balanced state with
regard to these elements, but interference intensi®es the ¯uxes of CO2 and H2 O, and
excess nitrogen gets into the soil and neighboring water basins, contaminating them.
Clearly, systematization of the models of land ecosystems and their introduction
to the GMNSS as alternative units, regulated by available databases, will make it
possible to markedly reduce the level of uncertainty in the estimates of CO2 sinks and
sources. Such a study was carried out by Alexandrov et al. (2005) in which calibration
of TsuBiMo by the database of the OsnabruÈck Center for Environment and
Technology (Germany) is demonstrated. The proposed calibration scheme consists of

four stages:
(1) Reduction of the number of unspeci®ed parameters of the model by introducing

a generalized parameter.
(2) Evaluation of generalized parameters from the available database.
(3) Formation of an empirical model relating generalized parameters to climate.
(4) Establishing a relationship between the global multitude of generalized param-
eters and global ®elds of climatic variables.
Applying this scheme of calculation to the TsuBiMo model, Alexandrov et al.

(2005), from measurements of CO2 ¯uxes in the neighborhood of Takayama (Japan),
constructed an empirical model to calculate monthly mean temperatures and showed
that the accuracy of calculations of the inter-annual and intra-annual variability of
biome productivity can be substantially increased at the local level.
The photochemical system of the atmosphere has been poorly studied and is not
considered in global models. Knowledge of the laws of how incoming radiation
intensity changes the eects of its assimilation by gases and aerosols will make it
possible to raise the accuracy of greenhouse eect estimates. Most important here is
the role of molecular nitrogen, ozone, water vapor, nitric oxide, sulfur dioxide,
nitrogen dioxide, CH4 , CO2 , and other gases. Greenhouse gases, other than CO2 ,
may play an unpredictable role in formation of the Earth radiation balance. There-
fore, some models are proposed here which will enable us to parameterize some of
these elements.
4.2 GLOBALIZATION OF THE SULFUR CYCLE
An increase in the intensity and spatial distribution of anthropogenic processes

during recent decades can be seen by the increased propagation of sulfur compounds
into the biosphere. This eect is con®rmed by comparing it with the pre-industrial
period, which shows that sedimentation of sulfur over the continents and oceans has
increased by 162.5% and 24.6%, respectively. Emissions of sulfur to the atmosphere
have now reached 93 10 6 tS yr 1 . The anthropogenic ¯ux of sulfur in the form of SO2
is easily estimated, assuming 3.1 10 12 kg of coal is globally burnt every year, with the
average content of sulfur in it being 2.5% (by weight).
Any improvement of the global model of the biosphere can only be achieved by
extending our knowledge of the biogeochemical cycles involved in it. The need to
parameterize a unit describing sulfur ¯uxes in natural systems is dictated by the
dependence of biotic processes on the content of sulfur in biospheric compartments.
The available data on the supplies and ¯uxes of sulfur compounds in the atmosphere,
soils, vegetation cover, and hydrosphere, enable formulation of mathematical
relationships to describe the global sulfur cycle.
Sulfur compounds strongly aect the health of the environment and its role in
regulating the greenhouse eect. For instance, in December 1952 a fog consisting of a
Sec. 4.2] 4.2 Globalization of the sulfur cycle 217
mixture of smoke and coal dust covered London. As a result, during one week more
than 2,000 people died from illnesses connected with air pollution. These events had
happened before, but had not been recorded. Measurements carried out at St.
Bartholomew's Hospital showed that the concentration of particles of smoke and
SO2 exceeded several milligrams per cubic meter. In general, London at that time
depended on the use of coal for heating and energy production, and since that event
attempts were made to remove sulfur from coal before its burning. Nevertheless, in
1962 the tragedy recurred with 800 victims succumbing to smog.
Since 1970, in OECD countries the problem of air quality has become the subject
of studies at many scienti®c centers. Oil from the Middle East became the main
source of energy. The content of sulfur in oil constitutes 2.5%±3%. In 1985 some
European countries signed the CLRTAP protocol on a 30% reduction of sulfur
emissions. As a result, present day levels of SO2 emissions have decreased by more
than 50% compared with 1980. Of course, this was possibly largely due to Europe
going over to the use of Russian gas.
It should be mentioned that, along with the formation of acid rain, sulfur
compounds directly bring about decreases in the greenhouse eect. For instance, a
sulfate ion has the opposite eect to a change of air temperature than CO2 and, hence,
reduces the eect of climate warming.
The global sulfur cycle consists of a mosaic structure of local ¯uxes of its
compounds with other elements formed due to water migration and atmospheric
processes. Conceptual schemes of the global and regional cycles of sulfur have been
described in detail by many authors (Nitu et al., 2000b; Xu and Carmichael, 1999;
Stein and Lamb, 2000; Howarth et al., 1992). However, existing models were
developed for restricted usage, which makes it dicult to include them in a global
model without substantial changes to their parameters. The model of the global
sulfur cycle proposed here was derived as a unit with inputs and outputs, which
enables it to be matched with other units of the global model via their inputs and
outputs.
In contrast to hydrogen, sulfur compounds cannot be attributed to long-lived
elements of the biosphere. For example, the lifetime of sulfur oxide in the atmosphere
does not exceed 15 days. Therefore, when calculating a unit for sulfur the spatial
digitization of its natural and anthropogenic reservoirs should be planned to re¯ect
the local distributions of sulfur in the vicinity of its sources and to facilitate
estimation of the intensities of inter-regional ¯uxes of sulfur compounds. The version
of the sulfur unit proposed here, in contrast to the known hydrodynamic models of
long-distance transport, takes into account the ¯uxes of sulfur compounds between
the hydrosphere, atmosphere, soil, and biota. The model does not consider the
vertical strati®cation of the atmosphere. The characteristics of sulfur ¯uxes averaged
vertically are calculated for both the land and ocean (Fasham, 2003; Sanets and
Chuduk, 2005; Stevenson and Cole, 1999). The spatial digitization of the biosphere
and the World Ocean corresponds to the scheme of Figure 3.8. The elements in the
block scheme of the model of the sulfur biogeochemical cycle are described in
Tables 4.1 and 4.2. This scheme is realized in every cell Oi j of the Earth's surface
and in every compartment Oi jk of the World Ocean. Interaction between the cells and
Table 4.1. Sulfur reservoirs and sulfur recovery factor.
Sulfur reservoir Sulfur storage Lifetime of sulfur in the reservoir
Atmosphere 4.8 MtS 8±25 days
Lithosphere 20 PtS 10 8 years
World Ocean 3 PtS Million years
Marine biota 30 MtS 1 year
Lakes 300 MtS 3 years
Soils 0.3 TtS 1,000 years
Sediments 300 TtS Million years
compartments is organized through the climate unit of the global model. Therefore,
equations for the sulfur unit lack terms re¯ecting the dynamic pattern of the spatial
transformation of sulfur reservoirs. According to the notation in Tables 4.2 and 4.3,
the equations describing the balance relationships between the reservoirs of sulfur
compounds can be written in the form:
dAH2SL
C1 C2 C3 C4 C21 ; 4:1
dt
dASO2L
C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 ; 4:2
dt
dASO4L
C9 C3 C20 C11 C12 ; 4:3
dt
dS
C17 C16 C19 ; 4:4
dt
dSO4L
C10 C11 C12 C16 C3 C13 C14 ; 4:5
dt
dFIX
C7 C15 C17 C22 ; 4:6
dt
dH2SOL
C8 C18 C21 C22 ; 4:7
dt
dAH2SO
H1 H3 H4 H26 H2 ; 4:8
dt
dASO2O
H2 H5 H6 H7 H8 H24 ; 4:9
dt
dASO4O
H8 H9 H12 H10 H11 ; 4:10
dt
Table 4.2. The characteristics of the land and hydrospheric ¯uxes of sulfur in the biosphere.
Numerical estimates of the ¯uxes (mg m 3 day 1 ) are obtained by averaging over respective
territories.
Sulfur ¯ux Land Hydrosphere
Identi®er Estimate Identi®er Estimate
Volcanic invasions
H2 S C1 0.018 H3 0.0068
SO2 C5 0.036 H5 0.0073
SO 24 C20 0.035 H9 0.0074
Anthropogenic emissions
H2 S C2 0.072 H1 0.00076
SO2 C6 0.92 H6 0.038
SO 24 C10 0.47
Oxidation of H2 S to SO2 C4 1.13 H2 0.3
Oxidation of SO2 to SO 24 C9 1.35 H8 0.16
Dry sedimentation of SO 24 C12 0.37 H11 0.11
Fallout of SO 24 with rain C11 1.26 H10 0.38
Biological decomposition and emission C3 1.03 H4 0.31
of H2 S into the atmosphere
Assimilation of SO 24 by biota C15 0.41 H13 1.09
Biological decomposition and formation C16 1.13 H17 0.43
of SO 24 H23 0.12
Sedimentation and deposits C18 0.22 H15 0.98

C19 0.11 H16 0.55
H19 0.0076
H25 0.036
Wind-driven return to the atmosphere C13 0.25 H12 0.33
Replenishing sulfur supplies due to C17 0.86 H14 1.1

dead biomass
Assimilation of atmospheric SO2 C7 0.46 H7 0.18
Leaching of SO2 from the atmosphere C8 0.27 H24 0.061
River run-o of SO 24 to the ocean C14 1.17
Transition of gas-phase H2 SO4 to H2 S C21 0.018 H26 0.0076
Assimilation of the leached part of
atmospheric SO2 by biota C22 0.036 H27 0.015
Oxidation of H2 S to SO2 in water H18 0.045

medium H22 0.19
Advection of SO2 H20 0.38
Advection of H2 S H21 0.37
Table 4.3. Some estimates of the sulfur reservoirs that can be used as initial data.
Reservoir Identi®er in Equations Quantitative estimate of

(4.1)±(4.18) the sulfur reservoir
(mg/m 2 )
The atmosphere over the oceans

H2 S AH2SO 10
SO2 ASO2O 5.3
SO 24 ASO40 2
The atmosphere over land

H2 S AH2SL 36.9
SO2 ASO2L 17.9
SO 24 ASO4L 12.9
Land
SO 24 SO4L 11.2
Biomass FIX 600
Soil S 5,000
Photic layer of the World Ocean

H2 S H2SOU 1.9
SO 24 SO4OU 19 10 7
Biomass FI 66.5
MOB DU 730
Deep layers of the World Ocean

H2 S H2SOD 2 10 6
SO 24 SO4OD 3.4 10 9
MOB DD 13,120
@SO4OU @SO4OU @ 2 SO4OU

vz kz H7 H10 H11 H20 H22 H27
@t @z @z 2
C14 H12 H13 ; 4:11
2
@H2SOU @H2SOU @ H2SOU
vz kz H21 H23 H4 H22 ; 4:12
@t @z @z 2
@H2SOD @H2SOD @ 2 H2SOD
vz kz H17 H18 H21 ; 4:13
@t @z @z 2
@SO4OD @SO4OD @ 2 SO4OD
vz kz H18 H19 H20 ; 4:14
@t @z @z 2
@DU @DU @ 2 DU
vz kz H14 H15 H23 ; 4:15
@t @z @z 2
@DD @DD @ 2 DD
vz kz H15 H16 H17 ; 4:16
@t @z @z 2
@FI @FI @ 2 FI
vz kz H13 H14 ; 4:17
@t @z @z 2
@BOT
H16 H19 ; 4:18
@t
where vz is the velocity of vertical water motion in the ocean, m da 1 ; and kz is the
coecient of turbulent mixing, m 2 da 1 .
Equations (4.1) through (4.18) are supplemented in each cell of the spatial
division of the ocean surface with initial conditions (Table 4.3). The boundary con-
ditions for Equations (4.11) through (4.18) are zero. The calculation procedure to
estimate sulfur concentration consists of two stages. First, at each time moment ti , for
all cells Oi j , Equations (4.1)±(4.18) are solved by the quasi-linearization method, and
all reservoirs of sulfur are estimated for ti1 ti Dt, where time step Dt is chosen
from the convergence state of the calculation procedure. Then, at moment ti1 using
the climate unit of the global model these estimates are speci®ed with account of the
atmospheric transport and ocean currents over time Dt.
Sulfur supplies in reservoirs are measured in mgS m 3 (sulfur ¯uxes are measured
in mgS m 3 da 1 ). The sulfur supplies in water are calculated by taking the volumes in
compartments Oi jk into account. To estimate sulfur supplies in the atmosphere, it is
assumed that an eective thickness of the atmosphere h is an input parameter either
introduced into the model by the user or prescribed as constants from Table 4.3, or
received from the climate unit of the global model. Quantitative estimates of the
¯uxes in the right-hand sides of Equations (4.1) through (4.18) are obtained in
dierent units of the global model. The anthropogenic ¯uxes of sulfur H1 , H6 , C2 ,
C6 , and C10 are simulated in the unit of scenarios. The ¯uxes H3 , H5 , H9 , C1 , C5 , and
C20 are prescribed either by the climate unit or formed in the unit of scenarios. The
accuracy of dierent functional presentations of the ¯uxes in Equations (4.1) through
(4.18) corresponds to the accuracy of similar ¯uxes of the biogeochemical cycles of
hydrogen, phosphorus, and nitrogen. The rate of emission of H2 S into the atmo-
sphere as a result of humus decomposition is described by the linear function
C3 1 pH SO4L TL , where 1 is the proportion coecient depending on soil
acidity, da 1 K 1 , and TL is the soil temperature, K . The initial value of SO4L in
Equation (4.5) is estimated from the humus supply by considering the content of
sulfur in humus prescribed by the parameter ag , %. According to the available
observations of the input of H2 S into the atmosphere from the ocean, the ¯ux H4
varies widely from low values to high values on transition from stagnant water to
zones of upwellings. Flux H4 is assumed to be a function of the ratio of the rates of
H2 S oxidation in the photic layer to the rate of vertical uplifting of water. Therefore,
to describe the H4 ¯ux, let us use the parameter tH2SU , which re¯ects the lifetime of
H2 S in water: H4 H2SU=tH2SU . Let us determine the value of tH2SU as a function
of the rate of vertical advection vz and concentration of oxygen O2 in the upper layer
ZH2S thick: tH2SU H2SOU vz 2 O2 =O2 1 vz , where constants 1 and 2
are determined empirically, and the value of O2 is either calculated by the oxygen unit
of the global model or prescribed from the global database.
The reaction of oxidation of H2 S to SO2 in the atmosphere, on land, and over the
water surface is characterized by the rapid process of the reaction of hydrogen sul®de
with atomic and molecular oxygen. At the same time, the reaction of H2 S with O3 in
the gas phase is slow. It is impossible to describe within the global model the diversity
of the situations appearing here; however, inclusion of ¯uxes H2 and C4 into the unit
of sulfur enabled us to take into account the correlation between the cycles of sulfur
and oxygen. These ¯uxes are parameterized using the indicator tH2SA of the lifetime of
H2 S in the atmosphere: C4 AH2SL=tH2SA , H2 AH2SO=tH2SA . The mechanism to
remove SO2 from the atmosphere is described by the ¯uxes H7 , H8 , H27 , C7 , C8 , and
C9 . Schematically, this mechanism consists of a set of interconnected reactions of SO2
with atomic oxygen under the in¯uence of various catalysts. A study of the succession
of reaction enables us to estimate the lifetime of SO2 for oxidation over land tSO2L
and water surface tSO2A1 , making it possible to assume the following parameteriza-
tions of the ¯uxes H8 and C9 : H8 ASO2O=tSO2A1 , C9 ASO2L=tSO2L .
Sulfur dioxide is assimilated from the atmosphere by rocks, vegetation, and other
Earth covers. Over the water surface this assimilation is connected with the intensity
of turbulent gas ¯uxes and surface roughness. We describe a dry deposition of SO2
over the vegetation by the model C7 q2 RX, where q2 q 02 ASO2L=rtl rs , rtl is
the atmospheric resistance to SO2 transport over the vegetation of l type, da m 1 , rs is
the surface resistance of s type to SO2 transport, da m 1 , RX is the production of
vegetation of X type, mg m 2 da 1 (calculated by the biogeocenotic unit of the global
model), and q 02 is the proportion coecient. The parameters rtl and rs are functions of
the types of soil±vegetation formations and estimated, respectively, at 0.05 and 4.5 for
forests, 0.9 and 3 for grass cover, 0.5 and 2 for bushes, 0.8 and 1 for bare soils, 1.9 and
0 for water surfaces, and 2 and 10 for snow cover.
The leaching of SO2 from the atmosphere with changing phase to H2 SO4 and a
subsequent neutralization on the surface of the l type is described by the function:
C8 q1l W ASO2L with the Langmuir coecient (Mon et al., 2006) q1l and
precipitation intensity W'; ; t. The interaction of acid rain with Earth surface
elements is re¯ected in Table 4.2 by ¯uxes C18 , C21 , and C22 for land and H25 , H26 ,
and H27 for water surface. To parameterize these ¯uxes, assume the hypothesis that
the reservoirs of H2SO4L and H2SO4O are spent in proportion to the out¯uxes, and
the coecients of this proportion are the controlling parameters of the numerical
experiments: C18 h1 H2SO4L, C22 h2 RX H2SO4L, C21 h3 Ta H2SO4L,
H25 h6 H2SO4O, H26 h4 Ta H2SO4O, H27 h5 RFI H2SO4O,
h1 h2 RX h3 Ta 1, h4 Ta h5 RFI h6 1, where Ta '; ; t is the air surface
temperature. Let us parameterize the ¯uxes H7 and H24 by the relationships
H7 ASO2O=tSO2A2 and H24 q1l W ASO2O, where tSO2A2 is the lifetime of SO2
over the water surface.
Sulfates interacting with the ecosystems and establishing the interaction of the
sulfur cycle with other biogeochemical processes are one of the most important
elements in the global cycle of sulfur. Numerous complicated transformations of
sulfates in the environment are described by the set of ¯uxes H7 , H8 , H10 , H11 ,
H12 , C9 , C11 , C12 , C13 for the atmospheric reservoir and ¯uxes H13 , H18 , H19 , H20 ,
H22 , C3 , C14 , C15 , C16 for land and the World Ocean.
The physical mechanisms for the transport of sulfates from the atmosphere to
the soil and water medium are connected with dry and wet sedimentation. An
ecient model of the wet removal of particles and gases from the atmosphere was
proposed by Langmann (2000): substituting the mechanism of the aerosols and
gases by a simpli®ed binary model enables us to match it with other units of the
global model: H10 W ASO4O, H11 vO ASO4O, C11 b3 W ASO4L, and
C12 d1 va ASO4L, where vO and va are the rates of aerosol dry deposition over the
water surface and land, respectively, , b3 , , and d1 are constants.
The return of sulfates from the soil and water medium to the atmosphere is
connected with rock weathering and spray above a rough water surface:
C13 d2 RATE SO4 L, H12 RATE SO4U, where RATE'; ; t is the wind
speed over the surface, m/s, and d2 and are empirical coecients.
Flux C14 relates to the surface and water reservoirs of sulfur. Let be the share of
the river system area on land and d3 the proportion coecient, then
C14 d3 W SO4L C11 C12 .
The surface part of the sulfur cycle is connected with the functioning of the
atmosphere±vegetation±soil system. Plants adsorb sulfur from the atmosphere in
the form of SO2 (¯uxes C7 and C22 ) and assimilate sulfur from the soil in the form
of SO 24 (¯ux C15 ). In the hierarchy of soil processes, two levels can be selected
de®ning the sulfur reservoirs as ``dead organics'' and ``SO 24 in soil''. The transitions
between them are described by ¯ux C16 b2 STL , where the coecient b2 b2;1 b2;2
re¯ects the rate b2;1 of transition of sulfur contained in dead organics into the form
assimilated by vegetation The coecient b2;2 indicates the content of sulfur in dead
plants.
The ¯uxes of sulfur in the water medium according to studies by Bodenbender et
al. (1999) depend on the biological processes in water bodies and constitute an
isolated part of the global cycle of sulfur that contains only the ¯uxes that connect
it with atmospheric and surface cycles. Rough estimates show that the rates of the
sulfur cycle in the water of seas and oceans do not play a substantial role for the
remaining parts of its global cycle. Despite this fact, for the purity of the numerical
experiment, in the proposed model the internal hydrospheric ¯uxes of sulfur com-
pounds are separated in space and parameterized with the same details as other ¯uxes
of sulfur in the atmosphere and on land. This excessiveness is important for other
units of the global model as well. In particular, it is important for the parameteriza-
tion of photosynthesis whose rate RFI aects the closure of other biogeochemical
cycles. Finally, let us assume H13 RFI, H14 b MFI, H15 f DU, H16pDD ,
H17 q DD, H18 H2SOD=tH2SOD , H19 u SO4D, H20 a1 vD SO4D,
H21 b1 vD H2SOD, H22 H2SOU=tH2SOU , and H23 g DU, where MFI is
the mass of dead phytoplankton, tH2SOU and tH2SOD are the time of complete
oxidation of H2 S in seawater at the photic and deep layers, respectively, and , b,
f , p, q, u, a1 , b1 , and g are constants.
Anthropogenic input to the sulfur unit comes about through ¯uxes C2 , C6 , C10 ,
H1 , and H6 as functions of spatiotemporal coordinates.
4.3 GLOBALIZATION OF THE PHOSPHORUS CYCLE
In contrast to nitrogen, the main reservoir of phosphorus in the biosphere is not the
atmosphere but the rocks and other deposits formed in the past geological epochs,
which, being subject to erosion, emit phosphates. Moreover, there are other
mechanisms for the return of phosphorus to the biospheric cycle, but, as a rule, they
are not that ecient. One of these mechanisms is ®shing, returning to land from
the hydrosphere about 60 10 3 tP yr 1 ; another is the extraction of phosphorus-
containing rocks estimated at (1±2) 10 6 tP yr 1 . The present cycle of phosphorus
is closed by its ¯uxes to the bottom deposits in the World Ocean where it mixes with
sewage, as well as with coast and river run-o. Estimates of the amount of phos-
phorus and its ¯uxes given by dierent authors are contradictory. In Table 4.4 we
attempt to bring these estimates together. In addition, it should be noted that, when
modeling biogeochemical cycles, information about the residence time of chemical
elements in respective media is needed. For phosphorus the complete cycle takes
53 hours in the atmosphere, 47.2 years in land biota, 2,000 years in the soil, 48 days
in ocean biota, and 26 and 1,500 years in surface and deep layers of the ocean,
respectively. Such indicators in a model are important for model veri®cation
purposes.
The elements involved in ¯ux in a model of the global phosphorus cycle are
presented in Figure 4.1 and Table 4.4, according to which the balance system of
equations will be:
(
@PA @PA @PA P P H P16 ; '; 2 O0 ;
V' V H 1 H 19
@t @' @ H P7 H P8 ; '; 2 O n O0 ;
@PU @P @P @P
v' U v U vz U H P11 H P15 H P16 H P9 H P10 ;
@t @' @ @z
@PL @PL @PL @PL
v' v vz H P12 H P14 H P13 H P15 ;
@t @' @ @z
@PS
H P2 H P8 H P9 H P10 H P6 H P7 H P11 ;
@t
where PU PU1 PU2 PU3 , PS PS1 PS2 . By detailing this in such a way we get:
@PU1 @PU1 @PU1 @PU1
v' v vz H P17 H P9 H P10 H P20 ;
@t @' @ @z
@PU2 @PU2 @PU2 @PU2
v' v vz H P20 H P18 ;
@t @' ' @z
@PU3 @PU3 @PU3 @PU3
v v vz H P11 H P18 H P17 ;
@t @' @ @z
@PS1
H P3 H P4 H P5 ;
@t
@PS2
H P2 H P4 H P5 H P8 H P3 H P6 H P7 :
@t
Sec. 4.3] 4.3 Globalization of the phosphorus cycle 225
Table 4.4. The characteristics of ¯uxes (10 6 t/yr) and reservoirs (10 6 t) of phosphorus in the
biosphere.
Reservoirs and ¯uxes of phosphorus Identi®er Estimate
Phosphorus supplies
In the atmosphere PA 3
On land PS 1,546
In the photic layer of the World Ocean PU 2 10 4
In deep layers of the World Ocean PL 12 10 4
Volcanic emissions H P1 0-2
Fertilizer H P2 19
Assimilation by plants H P3 45.34
Input with dead plants H P4 39.34
Input of the day-to-day lives of organisms

On land H P5 5
In the World Ocean H P20 81.5
Transition to a form that cannot assimilate H P6 2.9
Weathering H P7 5
Falling out with precipitation

On land H P8 1.8
On the oceans H P16 2
Removal with ®sh catch H P9 0.06
Removal by birds H P10 0.04
Leaching and sink into the World Ocean H P11 4±14
Input due to detritus lysis in the oceans

Photic layer H P18 550
Deep layers H P12 159
Exchange between photic and deep layers of the ocean

Lifting H P15 96.1
Descending H P14 22
Precipitation H P13 13±83.9
Rock weathering H P19 1
Photosynthesis H P17 630±1,300

Figure 4.1. The scheme of phosphorus ¯uxes in the biosphere. Notations are given in Table 4.4.
Let us now determine the functional and dynamic characteristics of the ¯uxes of
phosphorus (Table 4.4) based on analysis of existing ideas about their nature. The
atmospheric cycle is governed by rock weathering, volcanic eruptions, and by the
leaching of phosphorus by precipitation. From available estimates, the content of
phosphorus in the lithosphere constitutes 0.093%, and the processes of weathering
deliver annually to the atmosphere from 0.67 mgP cm 3 yr 1 to 5.06 mgP cm 3 yr 1 .
Every year, volcanic eruptions contribute to the atmosphere about 0.2 10 6 tP. Since
these processes are complicated and stochastic in nature and their models are absent,
as a ®rst approximation ¯uxes H P1 and H P19 can be considered constant.
The continental cycle of phosphorus is determined by ten ¯uxes (Figure 4.1)
closed by a single component PS indicating the phosphorus supplies on land in soil±
vegetation formations and in animals. The supplies of phosphorus in soils are
replenished due to ¯uxes H Pl (l 2; 4; 5; 8; 9; 10). The loss of phosphorus from the
soil is determined by ¯uxes H Pj ( j 3; 6; 7; 11). As the detailing of surface reservoirs
of phosphorus and consideration of more ingenious eects in the interaction between
these reservoirs gets more complicated, so the classi®cation of the surface ¯uxes of
Sec. 4.4] 4.4 Globalization of the nitrogen cycle 227
phosphorus becomes more complicated as well. In detailing the surface reservoirs of

phosphorus the following functional presentations of ¯uxes fH Pi g can be considered:
H P2 p1 GMG 0 1 M 0 1 ; H P3 pV RV ; H P4 p4 ML ; H P5 p5 HF ;
H P6 p6 PS2 =PS2;0 ; H P9 p3 I; H P7 p7 DT PS2 =PS2;0 ;
H P11 p2 PS2 1 exp ksu Wso =PS2;0 ;
where pV is the content of phosphorus in the living biomass of plants; p4 and p5 is the
content of phosphorus in organic matter of vegetable and animal origin, respectively;
I is the production of seafood from the ocean; G is the population; M is mineral
resources; RV is food production from crops; HF is the biomass of unassimilated food
of animals; ML V L; V is the rate at which vegetation dies o; L is the vegetation
biomass; is the temperature coecient of the rate at which dead organic matter
decomposes on land; DT is SAT variation with respect to a control value; Wso is the
volume of river run-o into the oceans; and pi (i 1; . . . ; 7) are constants. The index
``0'' in G0 , M0 , and PS2;0 attributes these parameters to some control time moment t0 ,
when all parameters in the model are known.
Let us describe the hydrochemical cycle of phosphorus by the totality of its
¯uxes H Pk (k 9±18, 20): H P12 p14 RDL , H P13 p8 PL =PL;0 , H P14 p9 PU =PU;0 ,
H P15 p10 PL =PL;0 , H P16 p12 RWO PA =PA;0 , H P17 p13 RF , H P18 p15 RDU ,
P
H 20 p16 MF , where RD is the rate at which dead organic matter decomposes;
RWO is precipitation over the ocean; RF is the production of phytoplankton and
other living organisms in the ocean; MF is the rate at which living biomasses die o;
and pi (i 8±16) are proportion constants.
4.4 GLOBALIZATION OF THE NITROGEN CYCLE
A model of the global nitrogen cycle (MGNC) needs a unit simulating the ¯uxes of
nitrogen in the environment for several indisputable reasons: nitrogen compounds
can aect environmental conditions, change the quality of food, aect the climate,
and transform hydrospheric parameters. The abundant use of nitrates leads to water
pollution and deteriorates the quality of food products. It is well known that intensive
exploitation of soils that disregards the consequences of the misuse of nitrogen
fertilizers breaks the stability of agri-ecosystems and and has concomitant eects
for human health. Moreover, nitrogen protoxide (N2 O), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), and
nitrogen oxide (NO), being minor gas components of the atmosphere, substantially
aect the formation of absorption processes of optical radiation in the atmosphere.
Small deviations in their concentrations can cause signi®cant climatic variations near
the Earth surface (Kondratyev, 1999a; Stockwell et al., 1999).
The nitrogen cycle is closely connected with the ¯uxes of hydrogen, sulfur, and
other chemicals (Smith et al., 1998; Dimitroulopoulou and Marsh, 1997; Chapin et
al., 2002; Rhee et al., 2005; Stevenson and Cole, 1999). Nitrogen and hydrogen react
under great pressure and temperature in the presence of a catalyst to make ammonia.
The study of correlations between the cycles of these elements is necessary to improve
estimates of the greenhouse eect and helps in our understanding of the mechanisms
involved in dynamic process formation as a result of the participation of reactive
nitrogen (NOy , NHx ) and sulfate (SOx ) in the environment.
4.4.1 The nitrogen cycle and sustainable development

Nitrogen is key to the production of food for people, fodder for animals, and ®ber.
The global production of nitrogen fertilizers constitutes about 90 10 6 tN yr 1 , and
the volume of nitrogen ®xed in natural ecosystems is estimated at approximately
150 10 6 tN yr 1 . In recent decades an increase in the availability of nitrogen for
plants as a result of using fertilizers was stimulated by the growth in population size
and the need for improved living standards. As a result, the anthropogenic impact on
the natural nitrogen cycle is now global in scale. As Bhatti et al. (2006) noted, the
problem of nitrogen cycle control has become a ®rst-priority task for the Scienti®c
Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) and International Geosphere-
Biosphere Program (IGBP), which in 2002 within the framework of the World
Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg started the International
Nitrogen Initiative (INI).
Being a vitally important element, nitrogen plays a substantial role in all proteins
and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). There are two nitrogen pools on Earth: the
atmosphere and that held within various compounds. In the atmosphere there resides
the gas fraction of nitrogen (N2 ). The chemical compounds of nitrogen along with
other elements such as carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen are collectively called ``reactive
nitrogen''. This includes inorganic reduced forms (e.g., ammonia and ammonium),
inorganic oxidized forms (e.g., NOx , HNO3 , N2 O, NO 3 , and NO 2 ), and organic
compounds (e.g., urea, amines, proteins, and nucleic acids). The nitrogen found in
humus is of interest as it can only be attributed to the category of ``reactive''
conditionally, as a result of its long lifetime in soil processes. In all these forms,
nitrogen circulates across the boundaries between the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
biosphere, and pedosphere (the Earth's soil layer). Among these reservoirs of
nitrogen, agricultural ecosystems play a growing role and, perhaps, are the decisive
factor in achieving NSS sustainable development.
The growing need for food and other agricultural products, as pointed out by
Wood et al. (2004), stimulates an increase in the rate of production and application of
nitrogen fertilizers. For example, the average 2.4% annual growth in food production
in the period 1961±2001 was followed by the growing use of nitrogen fertilizers
reaching 4.5% per year. Of course, there is a large reservoir of nitrogen that can
be used to raise the eciency of agricultural production, fortunately with reduced
loads on the nitrogen cycle due to the use of closed technologies in the application
of fertilizers as well as through improvement of the structures of agricultural eco-
systems. The need for nitrogen in the near future is likely to increase by 18%, from
90.0 MtN in 2005/2006 to 99.4 MtN in 2010/2011 (Heer and Prud'homme, 2006;
Mosier et al., 2004).
An important indicator of the level of need for food is the size of population.
According to FAO (2006) estimates, the observed dynamics of food consumption can
be quanti®ed as 2,552 kcal per capita per day in 1979±1981 and 2,803 kcal per capita
per day in 1997±1999. If this trend persists until 2030 it will lead to levels of food
consumption reaching 2,940 kcal per capita per day in 2015 and 3,050 kcal per capita
per day in 2030. Of course, these quantities are possible with a growth in GDP in
developed countries of not less than 4% per year.
There is an adverse side to correlations between the process of sustainable
development and the global cycle of nitrogen that relates to the burning of fossil
fuels. Solution of problems related to NOx emissions is the objective of many inter-
national agreements both at the intergovernmental level and within the framework of
the U.N. The related results demonstrate the presence of linear correlations between
the burning of carbon-containing fuels and ¯uxes of emitted nitric oxides. Therefore,
achievement of a balance in the impacts on the nitrogen cycle may well be possible
using a global model that takes into account all sources and sinks of nitrogen in its
dierent forms.
4.4.2 Numerical models of the global nitrogen cycle

4.4.2.1 Conceptual schemes of the nitrogen cycle in nature
The global cycle of nitrogen (nitrogen being a nutrient element) takes on a mosaic
structure with the local processes of its compounds the results of water migration and
atmospheric processes. The present-day nitrogen cycle is strongly subject to anthro-
pogenic forcings manifested through interference with the nitrogen cycle both directly
and via the in¯uence on related processes. Therefore, construction of an adequate
model of the nitrogen cycle in nature should be based on description of the whole
complex of natural processes and those initiated by humans. A general description of
supplies and ¯uxes of nitrogen is schematically given in Figures 4.2±4.6.
The natural sources of nitrogen oxides are connected with the vital functions of
bacteria, volcanic eruptions, and several atmospheric phenomena (e.g., lightning
discharges). The biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen includes such processes as ®xation,
mineralization, nitri®cation, assimilation, and dissimilation. The structural schemes
of these processes have been described in detail by many authors. Their complexity
level is determined by the goal of the study in question, availability of data on the
rates of transformation of nitrogen-containing compounds and their supplies, by the
level of detail required, etc.
Nitrogen moves in the biosphere by the complicated meandering structure of its
¯uxes consisting of the hierarchy of cycles at various levels of life on Earth. From the
atmosphere, nitrogen enters the cells of micro-organisms, through which it enters the
soil, eventually reaching higher plants, animals, and humans. As living organisms die
nitrogen returns to the soil, from which it either goes to plants and living organisms
once again or is emitted to the atmosphere. There is a similar scheme for the cycling of
nitrogen oxide that is inherent to the hydrosphere. The characteristic feature of these
cycles is the ease with which nitrogen is taken up from the biosphere by rocks, from
which it returns at a much slower rate. Taking into account the nature of the nitrogen
Figure 4.2. A scheme for the circulation of sulfur and nitrogen with the formation of acid
precipitation.
cycle in the biosphere and its reservoir structure means we can formulate a global
scheme of nitrogen ¯uxes.
4.4.2.2 A block diagram of the model of the global nitrogen cycle in the biosphere
Analysis of the model schemes of the ¯ux diagrams of nitrogen compounds in nature
proposed by various experts means we can construct a block diagram like that in
Figure 4.6. Here the atmosphere, soil, lithosphere, and hydrosphere are considered as
nitrogen reservoirs. The ®rst three reservoirs are described by 2-D models, and the
hydrosphere is described by a 3-D multi-layer model. The characteristics of nitrogen
¯uxes between these reservoirs are given in Table 4.5. The equations of the model are
written as
@NA @NA @NA
V' V HN1
@t @' @
8
< HN N
20 H 16 ; '; 2 O0 ;

: H N H N H N H N H N H N H N ; '; 2 OnO ;
7 19 8 9 22 2 10 0
4:19
Figure 4.3. Reserves, ¯uxes, and cycling times of nitrogen in the atmosphere±biosphere±
geosphere system. From Harrison et al. (2005) and Vitousek (2004). Notation: Pt 10 15 tons,
Tg 10 12 grams, Gt 10 9 tons.
@NS1
HN N
8 H6 HN
3 ; 4:20
@t
@NS2
HN N N N
2 H3 H5 H9 HN
6 HN
7
@t
HN11 HN21 4:21
@NU @NU @NU
v' v HN N N N
16 H 4;U H 18;U H 11 HN
17;U HN
20
@t @' @
HN
14;UP HN
15;UP 4:22
@NP @NP @NP
v' v HN N N N
18;P H 4;P H 14;UP H 15;PL HN
17;P
@t @' @
HN
14;PL HN
15;UP 4:23
@NL
QL H N N N
12;L H 14;PL H 15;LF HN
14;LF
@t
HN15;PL 4:24
@NF
QF H N N N
12;F H 23 H 14;LF HN
13 HN
15;LF 4:25
@t
Figure 4.4. Block diagram of biogeochemical cycles of C and N in water-limited ecosystems.

From Austin et al. (2004). (a) Dry season. (b) Wet season.
where VV' ; V is the wind speed; vv' ; v is current velocity in the ocean; and QL
and QF are functions describing the mixing of deep water in the ocean.
To simplify the calculation scheme presented in Figure 4.6, the advective pro-
cesses in Equations (4.19) through (4.25) can be described by superposition of ¯uxes
HN N
14 and H 15 . Computer realization of the equations of the MGNC unit introduces
some corrections to Equations (4.19)±(4.25) to get an agreement between the dimen-
sions of variables and the spatial digitization of O. Therefore, the estimates of ¯uxes
HN i given below, when considering them for inclusion in the MGNC, should be
corrected following this criterion.
4.4.3 Atmospheric components of the nitrogen cycle

The atmospheric part of the nitrogen cycle is a good example of the complicated
mechanism of transformation of gas substances that are characterized by an intricate
set of ¯uxes at the borders between the basic reservoirs of nitrogen. Nevertheless, the
Figure 4.5. The scheme of nitrogen ¯uxes in the marine medium.
Figure 4.6. The scheme of nitrogen ¯uxes in nature (see Table 4.5).
Table 4.5. Characteristics of the reservoirs and ¯uxes of nitrogen in the biosphere (Figure 4.6).
Reservoirs (Gt) and ¯uxes (10 6 t/yr) Identi®er Estimate
Nitrogen supplies
Atmosphere NA (3.9±4) 10 5
Soil NS 280±950
Photic and intermediate layer of the ocean NU NP 2,800
Deep and bottom layer of the ocean NL NF 36,400
Natural sources of the hydrosphere HN
1 0.392
Technogenic accumulation
In fuel burning HN
2 22.8
In fertilizer production HN
9 41.8
Input from dead organisms

On land HN
3 42.2
In the upper layers of the World Ocean HN
18 5
In deep layers of the World Ocean HN
12 7.8
Input from the day-to-day life of organisms

On land HN
5 0.1
In the World Ocean HN
4 0.3
Biological ®xation
On land HN
6 20.3
17 10
In the atmosphere HN
10 40
Denitri®cation
On land HN
7 52
20 49.8
Atmospheric ®xation
Over land HN
8 4
Over the World Ocean HN
16 3.6
Run-o from land into the World Ocean HN
11 38.6
Precipitation HN
13 0.5
Vertical exchange processes in the oceans

Descending HN
14 0.2
Lifting HN
15 7.5
Anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere HN
19 15
Removal of nitrogen from the cycle due to sedimentation HN
21 0.2
Input of nitrogen to the atmosphere in the process of HN

22 0.217
weathering of rocks
Input of nitrogen to water by sediments dissolving HN
23 0.091
results obtained by many experts mean we can formulate clear ideas about the ¯ux
diagram of nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere. In particular, many international
programs, such as GOME, EDGAR, TRACE-P, and CORP, are dedicated to studies
of tropospheric NO2 in connection with ozone (Ma et al., 2006).
Nitrogen resides in the atmosphere both in a free state (N2 ) and as various
compounds, such as ammonia (NH3 ), nitrogen protoxide, nitrogen oxide, nitrogen
dioxide, and other nitrogen oxides (NO3 , N2 O3 , N2 O4 , N2 O5 ), which play an inter-
mediate role in chemical reactions. From available estimates, the active part of
atmospheric nitrogen constitutes 3.92 10 12 t (i.e., NA 0.77 10 4 t km 2 ). Detailing
the atmospheric reactions of nitrogen is still incomplete because the sources and
behavior of various forms of ammonia have not been studied adequately. The most
important reactions in the atmosphere are the following:
NO2 ! NO O; 'Ka 0 25 h 1 ;
1 1
O3 NO ! NO2 O2 ; K1 1,320 ppm h :
Photochemical equilibrium is described by the relationship:
NOO3 =NO2 'Ka =K1 :
The time of relaxation in this case constitutes 16 s, and therefore the equilibrium
between NO, NO2 , and O3 in the atmosphere can be considered stable. However,
the equilibrium N2 O2 $ 2NO under anthropogenic conditions relates to NO
transforming into NO2 over several hours. Therefore, from the viewpoint of global
modeling, the separate consideration of the components NO and NO2 is unnecessary
here as well. In other words, we shall consider atmospheric nitrogen as a generalized
component of the global model.
4.4.3.1 Atmospheric ®xation

Nitrogen ®xation is the process by which the relatively inert molecular form (N2 ) in
the atmosphere is converted into ammonia, nitrate, and nitrogen dioxide, which take
part in other chemical processes. As a result of the various physico-chemical pro-
cesses taking place in the atmosphere, free nitrogen can move from the atmosphere to
soil and water bodies. Fixation of atmospheric nitrogen due to electrical charges and
photochemical processes constitutes annually no more than 0.035 t km 2 (arguably
more accurate estimates show it to be 0.027 t km 2 for land and 0.01 t km 2 for the
oceans). Since nitrogen ¯uxes due to atmospheric ®xation are mainly determined by
meteorological conditions, it is quite natural to consider them independently for each
region of land and each water body of the World Ocean as functions of temperature
and precipitation.
Flux H N
16 of nitrogen ®xed in the atmosphere over any ocean basin is described by
the relationship:
HN
16 1 1
DT
2 RW NA ;
where DT is atmospheric temperature variation; 1 is the indicator of temperature

dependence of the rate of atmospheric ®xation of nitrogen; RW is precipitation; and
1 and 2 are coecients.
The equation of atmospheric ®xation over a land site Oi j is written by analogy to
HN16 :
HN
8;i j 3 1
DT
4 RW;i j NA ;
where 3 and 4 are coecients.

To estimate coecients i (i 1; . . . ; 4), as a ®rst approximation we can
use average data on nitrogen ¯uxes and precipitation. If we assume
HN16 9.96 10
3
t km 2 yr 1 , H N
8 0.027 t km
2
yr 1 , and estimate local pre-
cipitation over the ocean and land at 1.01 m yr and 0.24 m yr 1 , respectively, and
1
convective precipitation over the ocean and land at 0.19 m yr 1 and 0.116 m yr 1 ,
respectively, we obtain 1 0.00498, 2 0.00458, 3 0.0135, and 4 0.0285.
These estimates are easily speci®ed by taking onboard local data at a ®xed time
moment for smaller regions and water bodies.
4.4.3.2 Geospheric sources of nitrogen

The ¯ux of nitrogen H N 1 is determined by the geothermal activity of the Earth.
Estimates of H N1 testify to the necessity for this constituent to be considered in the
global model. For instance, in the nitrogen fumaroles of Vesuvius the content of
nitrogen by weight constitutes 98%, in gases of the lavas of Hawaiian volcanoes
nitrogen constitutes only 5.7%, and over the globe the input of juvenile nitrogen
averages 0.4 10 6 t yr 1 . Let H N1 be a function of time approximating a statistical
series of observations. A more strict account of this ¯ux of nitrogen in the model
can be realized by using algorithms to parameterize random processes (e.g., by
using evolutionary modeling). However, within the global model, oriented toward
describing processes in time steps of decades, it is enough to use average annual
data.
Flux H N
1 can be, to some extent, interpreted as compensating for ¯uxes H 13 and
N
N
H 21 .
4.4.4 The land surface part of the biospheric nitrogen cycle

The nitrogen supplies on land consist of the assimilable nitrogen in the soil
NS2 0.19 10 4 t km 2 , in plants (12 10 9 t), and living organisms (0.2 10 9 t). A
diversity of nitrogen ¯uxes is formed here of the processes of nitri®cation, denitri®ca-
tion, ammoni®cation, ®xation, and river run-o. The intensities of these ¯uxes
depend on climatic conditions, temperature regime, moisture, as well as the chemical
and physical properties of soil. Many qualitative and quantitative characteristics of
these dependences have been described in the literature (Hellebrandt et al., 2003). Let
us consider some of them.
4.4.4.1 Nitri®cation
Nitri®cation is the biological oxidation of ammonia (by oxygen) producing nitrites
followed by the oxidation of these nitrites into nitrates. Nitri®cation is an important
step in the nitrogen cycle in the soil. Nitri®cation involves the oxidation of nitrogen
by specialized bacteria (Nitrosomonas, Nitrobacter, etc.).The return of nitrogen to the
cycle due to the day-to-day life of micro-organisms is a stabilizing natural process.
To simplify the whole process of the ammonia salt transformation into nitrates, let
us present the activity of heterotrophic micro-organisms and saprophages as a
generalized process for organic matter decomposition. The rate of organic matter
decomposition and nitri®cation increases with increasing temperature, reaching its
optimal value at Ta 34.5 C. Therefore, for ¯ux H N 3 an approximation
HN 3 N M can be assumed, where M is the rate at which component dies
o, and N is the content of nitrogen in component .
4.4.4.2 Denitri®cation
Denitri®cation takes place in anoxic environments where nitrate and nitrite act
as electron acceptors (oxidizers) and nitri®cation reactions then reverse:
NO 3 ) NO 2 ) NO. The processes of denitri®cation (H N 7 ) on land are important
channels for nitrogen to get into the atmosphere. The intensity of these processes
depends on temperature, humidity, pollution of soils with poisonous chemicals, and
pH. The quantitative and functional characteristics of these dependences have
been well studied. The global model need only take into account temperature and
humidity:
NS
HN DT
7 6 2 W S ;
k1 NS
where WS is soil moisture; 2 is the temperature coecient; and 6 and 1 are

empirical parameters. If we assume H N 2
7 0.318 t/km /yr, then 6 0.496 and
k1 0.556.
4.4.4.3 Biological ®xation

In the biological cycle of nitrogen of importance are the processes of its ®xation by
micro-organisms and plants whose intensity is estimated at 148 10 6 t yr 1 . The rate
of ®xation, depending on the character of the medium, can vary reaching 3 10 9 t yr 1
in highly productive regions. Nitrogen ¯ux H N 10 depends on the distribution of
vegetation cover and can be described by the equation H N 10 R =i j , where
is the parcel of land under vegetation of type in territory Oi j of area i j , R
is the productivity of plants of type, and is the coecient.
The ®xation of nitrogen by plants directly from the soil via the root systems (¯ux
HN 6 ) occupies a principle place in the nitrogen cycle, especially in areas that are
cultivated. For instance, an increase in the yield of legumes in agriculture can raise
HN 6 up to 35 t km
2
yr 1 . Therefore, consideration of this ¯ux in the model is
necessary and can be realized in the following form:

HN
6 R =i j ; 4:26
where is the constant.
The rate of assimilation of nitrogen by the roots of plants is known to depend
much on the soil temperature regime, decreasing a little as temperature lowers to
8 C±10 C and dropping dramatically at temperatures below 5 C±6 C. The move-
ment of nitrogen from the roots to the upper parts of the plants slows down, too.
Formula (4.26) re¯ects this regularity through the respective reactions of plant
productivity (time lag is disregarded).
On land, plants assimilate annually about 30 10 6 tN from the atmosphere and
more than 5.3 10 6 tN directly from the soil. Approximate estimates of the produc-
tivity of various types of vegetation average R 710 t km 2 yr 1 ±3,243 t km 2 yr 1 .
Hence, from (4.26) we have 0.134 10 5 ±0.506 10 4 .
4.4.4.4 The loss of nitrogen through leaching from soils

On global scales, one means of nitrogen migration includes the transport of its
compounds between land and oceans due to water run-o. The annual input of
nitrogen from land into the World Ocean is estimated at 38.6 10 6 t. Let the total
sink to the ocean from land be described by the function WSO , then the nitrogen ¯ux
HN 11 can be approximated by the expression
HN
11 N NS2 1 exp kN WSO ;
where N and kN are coecients. The functional form foresees nitrogen ¯ux from the
land to the ocean as equal to zero in the absence of run-o and its stabilization at level
N , with the run-o volume considerably increasing. To estimate the parameters N
and kN , it is necessary to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of the types of
soil±vegetation formations, relief, and other geophysical parameters. In particular,
the content of nitrogen compounds in water diers as a function of run-o territory.
River water in forest regions with a temperate climate contain 0.4 mg L 1 of nitrates;
for arid areas this value is 1.45 mg L 1 . The concentration of nitrates increases
sharply in the drainage water of irrigation systems (5.5 mg L 1 ), in the river water
of thickly populated regions (25 mg L 1 ), and reaches a maximum in the soil solutions
of salty irrigated soils (200 mg L 1 ). Ground water contains from 10 mg L 1 to
100 mg L 1 of nitrates. The total run-o of water into the World Ocean reaches
50 10 3 km 3 , 30% of which is underground run-o; hence, the total ¯ux of nitrogen
per unit area of the ocean is 0.107 t yr 1 . Assuming WSO 0.337 m and that a 95%
level of sink saturation is reached at a ®ve-fold increase of WSO , we obtain kN 0.367
and N 0.708.
The land surface part of the nitrogen cycle involves the constant process of
nitrogen removal from the biosphere into deposits (in particular, as a result of
accumulation of saltpeter on the Earth surface through erosion and alkali®cation).
From the available estimates, H N 21 3.9 10
4
t/km 2 /yr, with H N N
21 < H 22 , but
N N N N N
H 21 H 13 H 1 H 22 H 23 . This relationship follows from the fact that during
the Holocene the loss of nitrogen was balanced by its input. Of course, in the present
biosphere, with the changing intensity of most of the ¯uxes enumerated in Table 4.5,
this balance is breaking down as a result of increasing ¯uxes H N N
9 and H 19 .
Finally, we must mention the fact that in connection with the persistent C/N ratio
for dierent types of soils and climatic zones for nitrogen ¯uxes it is important to ®nd
correlations between factors that regulate biogeochemical cycles at a regional level.
Arid regions where soils are poor in micro-organisms and the moisture cycle is
determined by division into dry and wet seasons are important here. In this connec-
tion, Austin et al. (2004) showed that the episodic nature of water availability in arid
and semi-arid ecosystems has signi®cant consequences on below-ground carbon and
nutrient cycling. Pulsed water events directly control the C/N of microbially available
substrate. The level of this control depends on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of
vegetation cover, topographic position, and soil texture. The seasonal distribution of
water pulses eventually leads to a change in biogeochemical cycling in water-limited
ecosystems. A schematic outline of the biogeochemical cycles of C and N in arid and
semi-arid ecosystems in dry seasons, and after rainfall is given in Figure 4.4.
4.4.5 The hydrosphere and its role in the dynamics of the nitrogen cycle
In seawater, nitrogen is present as dissolved gas, ions of ammonium NH 4,
nitrite NO 2 , nitrate NO 3 , and as various organic compounds. Inorganic nitrogen
compounds are assimilated by algae and phytoplankton and thus transfer into
organic forms that serve as food for living organisms. The expenditure of inorganic
nitrogen supplies is compensated by atmospheric precipitation, river run-o, and
mineralization of organic remains in the process of the day-to-day lives of organisms
and their dying-o. According to Ivanov (1978), nitrogen ¯uxes in seawater can be
schematically shown (see Figure 4.5). Of course, not all nitrogen ¯uxes available in
nature have been taken into account. The diversity of ways in which nitrogen
transforms in water have been studied inadequately, though the available informa-
tion may well be sucient for the global model. Processes, such as the replenishing of
nitrogen supplies in water due to the lysis of detritus and the functioning of living
organisms, the nitrogen exchange between photic and deep layers of the ocean, and
nitrogen ®xation at photosynthesis and denitri®cation, have been thoroughly
studied and described in the literature. Also, there are rough estimates of nitrogen
supplies in the ocean, according to which we can assume, on average, that
NU NP 0.77 10 4 t km 2 and NL NF 10 5 t km 2 . More detailed spatial dis-
tributions of nitrogen supplies in the hydrosphere can be calculated from data on
biomass, dissolved organic matter, and concentration of dissolved oxygen. The
volume relationships of dissolved nitrogen are related to the volume of oxygen as
mLN2 /L 1.06 1.63 mLO2 /L.
Nitrogen supplies in water bodies are replenished due to the bacterial decom-
position of organic sediments and dissolved organic matter. Let us consider
component D as the content of dead organic matter in water. On such a basis, we
can write H N
18 D D'; ; z; t, where D is the indicator of the nitrogen content and
the rate of detritus lysis. The free nitrogen supplies in water are also replenished as
organisms live their lives. By accounting for phytoplankton F and nekton r, we have:
HN N N
4 Hr HF; HN
r r T r ; HN
F F TF ;
where Tr and TF are characteristics of the metabolic processes, respectively, in nekton

and phytoplankton; and r and F are coecients. To determine average values for
these coecients, let us assume Tr 0.194 t km 2 yr 1 , TF 0.125 t km 2 yr 1 , and
HN N
r H F 0.83 10
3
t km 2 yr 1 . Then r 0.00428 and F 0.00664.
The process of denitri®cation in water delivers considerable amounts of nitrogen
to the atmosphere: H N 20 5 2
DT
NU '; ; z; t, where 5 and 2 are constants.
The biological ®xation of nitrogen in water is about 10 10 6 t yr 1 , reaching
20.7 10 6 t yr 1 in the photic layer of the ocean, and (36±1,800) 10 4 t km 3 yr 1 in
small lakes. For the World Ocean, H N 17 0.0277 t km
1
yr 1 , on average. Assuming
N
H 17 R RF , where RF is the production by phytoplankton averaging
168.8 t km 2 yr 1 , we obtain R 0.164 10 3 .
The characteristic feature of the nitrogen cycle in water is its transport due to
gravitational sedimentation, vertical convection, turbulent diusion, and conver-
gence. The processes of nitrogen transport by migrating animals are almost negligible
and can be neglected in the global model. The simplest way of describing the vertical
¯uxes of nitrogen can be reduced to the model H N N
14 DN , H 15 DN , where
U; P; L and P; L; F.
4.4.6 Anthropogenic factors aecting the biospheric nitrogen cycle

The present contribution of human activity to the general biospheric cycle of nitrogen
has reached a level when the consequences of changes have become unpredictable and
probably catastrophic. Epidemiological studies testify to the growth of respiration
diseases in areas with high concentrations of nitrogen and sulfur oxides as well as
photochemical oxidizers. The harmful eect of nitrogen oxides on living organisms
starts to manifest itself when the 940 mkg m 3 level is exceeded. In general, the
consequences of nitrogen pollution of the biosphere are more complicated. For
instance, on the one hand, technogenic accumulation of nitrogen from the
atmosphere for fertilizer production plays a positive role by raising the productivity
of land and water ecosystems, and, on the other hand, it causes the undesirable
eutrophication of water basins. Removal of nitrogen from the atmosphere for indus-
trial and agricultural needs is compensated for by technogenic input of nitrogen into
the atmosphere through the burning of solid and liquid fuel. A considerable share is
contributed by the transport sector, which emits nitrogen oxides reaching, for
instance, in the U.S.A., 11.7 10 6 t per year. However, even this physical equilibrium
cannot restore the chemico-biological balance. Therefore, in this multi-functional
hierarchical set of global ¯uxes of nitrogen, the most vulnerable breaks and linkages
should be highlighted, which is only possible within a well-planned numerical
experiment.
Quantitative estimate of the main stages of the nitrogen cycle that takes into
account the human factor enables us to see the overall eect of breaking the global
balance of nitrogen. Tables 4.5 and 4.6 demonstrate the size of this imbalance.
However, from available data on the global distribution of violations of the nitrogen
cycle it is impossible to reliably estimate the contribution of the industrial synthesis of
nitrogen compounds and their scattering over the globe into its biogeochemical cycle.
In the ®nal years of the 20th century, industry increased the total amount of nitrogen
circulating in the biosphere by 50%. As a result, the natural equilibrium between the
processes of nitri®cation and denitri®cation turned out to be out of balance to the
tune of 9 10 6 t.
Preliminary estimates of increasing anthropogenic pressure on the nitrogen ¯uxes
between biospheric elements suggest the hypothesis of the existence of a strong
correlation between fertilizer production H N 9 and population density G, technogenic
accumulation of nitrogen from the burning of fuel H N 2 and mineral resource expen-
diture RMG , anthropogenic input of nitrogen into the atmosphere H N 19 , and the
intensity of emissions of general pollution ZVG . The quantitative characteristics of
these dependences can be obtained from known trends. From some estimates, the
amount of nitrogen oxide emitted to the atmosphere is proportional to the weight of
the fuel used with a 4% annual increasing trend. The scales of industrial ®xation of
nitrogen for the last 40 years increased by a factor of 5, reaching a value that could
have been ®xed by every ecosystem on Earth before the advent of current agricultural
technology. In 1968, global industry was responsible for about 30 10 6 t of ®xed
nitrogen and in 2000 this value reached 1 billion.
Let us formalize these correlations as the following models:
)
HN
9 minfUKGK; t; NA K =g;
4:27
HN
2 AG RMG ; HN
19 GA ZVG
where K is the number allocated to an economic region; G is the average population

density of region K; and K is the area of region K. The coecients U, AG , and
GA are determined from analysis of available information about the processes in
(4.27). If we assume that H N 2 0.154 t km
2
yr 1 , H N
19 0.102 t km
2
yr 1 , and
N 2 1 2
H 9 0.283 t km yr , then at G 24.4 people km , RMG 30.5 oil units
km 2 yr 1 , and ZVG 3.39 t km 2 yr 1 , we obtain U 0.283, AG 0.504 10 2 ,
and GA 0.03.
Anthropogenic interference with the nitrogen cycle can also have medico-
biological consequences expressed, for instance, through increasing mortality with
growing amounts of NO2 at 190 mg m 3 ±320 mg m 3 , if living organisms experience
this level for one hour more than once a month. From the data of the World Health
Organization the natural background concentration of NO2 over continents consti-
tutes 0.4 mg m 3 ±9.4 mg m 3 .
Finally, human impact on the nitrogen cycle can aect the structure and intensity
of biospheric energy exchange. As can be seen in Table 4.7, there are possibilities of
considerable shifts in such an exchange depending on intensi®cation of one or
another reaction.
Table 4.6. Estimates of some parameters of the global biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen in the
biosphere.
Parameter Estimate
Nitrogen content in the atmosphere (%)

By volume 78.084
By weight 75
Nitrogen content in some biospheric components (%)

Soil humus 6
3
River water 1.5 10
Sewage 2.5
Vegetation decomposition 1
Marine organisms 5
Content of dissolved nitrogen in seawater (mL/L)

Near the equator 14.1
High latitudes 8.2
Average content of nitrogen in seawater (g/m 3 ) 0.3
Content of nitrates in river water (t/km 3 )

Arid regions 1.45
Densely populated regions 25
Temperate climate forests 0.4
Concentration of nitrates (t/km 3 )

Drainage water of irrigation systems 5.5
Soil solutions of salty irrigated soils 200
Ground water 10±100
Fallout of ®xed nitrogen onto the land (10 6 t/yr)

Through precipitation 25
Aerosols 15
Assimilation of nitrogen by land plants (10 6 t/yr)

From the atmosphere 30
From the soil 5.3
Input of nitrogen to the ocean due to detritus lysis (10 6 t/yr) 5
Intensity of nitrogen movement from the photic layers of the oceans to 0.2
deep layers with descending water, sedimentary algae, and animal carcasses
(10 6 t/yr)
Global production of nitrogen fertilizers (10 6 t/yr) 31.6±90.1
Removal of nitrogen from the soil by growth of crops (10 6 t/yr) 90±200
Sec. 4.5] Biospheric budget of oxygen and ozone regarding globalization processes 243
Parameter Estimate
Emissions of nitrogen oxides in some countries (10 6 t/yr)

U.S.A. 22.8
Japan 2.4
U.K. 2.43
The Netherlands 0.32
Concentration of NO2 in the stratosphere at altitudes (ppb)

10 km 0.2±0.5
30 km 4±12
Background value of N2 O concentration in the atmospheric layer up to 325

16 km (ppm)
Observed variations in background N2 O concentration in the 0.08±0.35

atmospheric layer up to 16 km (ppm)
NO concentration near the Earth surface (ppb)

Over oceans 0.004
Over industrial regions 1
Background content of NO in the atmosphere (ppb)

In the layer up to 7 km 0.03±0.06
At altitudes 35 km±45 km 5±20
NO2 concentration in the surface air layer (ppb)

Over oceans 0.1±2.6
Over continents 0.8±16
4.5 BIOSPHERIC BUDGET OF OXYGEN AND OZONE IN THE

CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION PROCESSES
The oxygen cycle in nature is composed of characteristic biogeochemical transitions

between the reservoirs of basic constituents circulating in the biosphere (Lane, 2003).
Therefore, a block scheme of oxygen exchange resembles those of sulfur, nitrogen,
carbon, and phosphorus (Figure 4.7 and Table 4.8). However, oxygen has the widest
spread of constituents across the globe, which makes it one of the substantial com-
ponents of the biogeochemical cycles. Its amount in the Earth's crust, including the
hydrosphere, reaches 49% by mass. The lithosphere (without the ocean and the
atmosphere) contains 47.2% of oxygen and 88.89% of water. In ocean water, oxygen
constitutes 85.82% and living organisms contain 65% by mass. These estimates
testify to the signi®cance of oxygen for the biosphere, the appearance and existence
Table 4.7. Basic reactions of the global biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen and their energy
output. From Delvich (1972).
Reaction Reaction formula Energy

output
(kcal)
Ammoni®cation CH2 NH2 COOH 32 O2 ! 2CO2 H2 O NH3 176
Nitri®cation NH3 12 O2 ! HNO2 H2 O 66

KNO2 12 O2 ! KNO3 17.5
Fixation N2 ! 2N -160
2N 3H2 ! 2NH3 12.8
Respiration C6 H12 O6 6O2 ! 6CO2 6H2 O 686
Denitri®cation C6 H12 O6 6KNO3 ! 6CO2 3H2 O 6KOH 3N2 O 545

5C6 H12 O6 24KNO3 3OCO2 18H2 24KOH 12N2 570
5S 6KNO3 2CaCO3 ! 3K2 SO4 2CaSO4 2CO2 3N2 132
Figure 4.7. Oxygen ¯uxes in the biosphere.

Sec. 4.5] 4.5 Biospheric budget of oxygen and ozone in the context of globalization 245
Table 4.8. Estimates of the reservoirs and ¯uxes of oxygen and ozone used to adjust the
GMNSS unit. From Kondratyev and Varotsos (2000).
Reservoirs (t/km 2 ), ¯uxes (t km 2

yr 1 ) Identi®er Estimate
Oxygen in the upper photic layer of the World Ocean OU 0.8 10 8
Oxygen in the transition layer of the ocean OP 0.7 10 9
Oxygen in deep ocean O (?) 3 10 4
Oxygen in the bottom layer of the ocean OF 9 10 3
Oxygen in the atmosphere OA 0.24 10 7
Oxygen in the surface part of the hydrosphere OS 0.6 10 8
Ozone O3 0.23
Photosynthesis in the ocean HO
1 108±388
Photosynthesis on land HO
2 70-100
Photodecomposition of water in the atmosphere HO
3 0.008
Oxidation processes in the atmosphere HO
4 0.009
Respiration of plants HO
5 0.07±0.1
Respiration of animals HO
5 50±60
Respiration of humans HO
7 70±80
Oxidation±restoration processes in soil HO
8 1
Oxidation processes in the World Ocean HO
9 164
Descent in oxygen-saturated waters HO
10 190
Decomposition and destruction of O2 in the atmosphere HO
11
Formation of O3 from NO2 HO

12 0.23±22.2
Lifting of dissolved oxygen in upwelling zones HO
13 36
Decomposition and destruction of ozone in the atmosphere HO
14 1.48±1.66
Exchange at the atmosphere±ocean border HO
15 18±140
Exchange at the atmosphere±inland water body border HO
16 18±140
Transport of oxygen to the ocean by river run-o HO
17 50
Anthropogenic consumption of oxygen HO
18 60±90
Expenditures of O2 on metabolism by aquatic animals HO
19 0.2
Oxidation processes in continental water bodies HO
20 90±200
Photosynthesis in continental water bodies HO
21 100±400
of which are determined by the presence of oxygen (Lane, 2003). Today about
39 10 14 tO2 circulate in the biosphere, 37 10 18 molO2 reside in the atmosphere;
the oceans and long-lived biota contain 219 10 15 molO2 and 180 10 15 molO2 ,
respectively. The timescale of the complete cycle of oxygen varies from 3 10 6 years
for the atmosphere to 22 days for the surface waters of the World Ocean. On the
whole, for oceans and long-lived biota, oxygen completes its cycle in 500 and 50 years,
respectively.
Oxygen is present in the biosphere in the form of molecular oxygen (O2 ), ozone
(O3 ), atomic oxygen (O), and as a constituent of various oxides. On the one hand,
oxygen maintains life on the Earth due to the process of respiration and formation of
the ozone layer, and, on the other hand, is itself the product of the day-to-day living
of organisms. This fact hinders a description of its cycle, since it requires synthezing
various processes. An attempt was made to describe the cycle and derive a model of
the global oxygen cycle (MGOC) as a unit of the GMNSS (Kondratyev et al., 2004b).
Many authors believe that in the short term nothing threatens the stability of the
global biogeochemical cycle of oxygen. This statement is not valid for ozone, whose
concentration and spatial distribution suered serious changes in recent decades.
According to Kondratyev and Varotsos (2000), available observations of the vertical
pro®le of atmospheric ozone show a very complicated spatiotemporal variability that
depends on many characteristics of the nature±society system. The MGOC unit that
parameterizes ozone ¯uxes follows the numerical model by Aloyan (2004) and
Arutiunian et al. (2004), with the needed correction taken into account. This correc-
tion consists in substituting some functional dependences for scenarios re¯ecting the
dynamics of the changes in concentrations of the chemicals which are not described in
the global model of the carbon cycle.
4.5.1 Oxygen sources and sinks

4.5.1.1 Oxygen sources
Nowadays and in the geological past there have been two sources of oxygen: endo-
genic and photosynthetic. Without dwelling on the respective scienti®c discussions
and all existing concepts, we shall try to describe the sources of oxygen in the present
biosphere, following numerous studies in this ®eld.
The basic source of atomic oxygen is the photosynthesis of plants, whose
equation has the form:
" light # #
2H2 O CO2 ) COH H2 O O2
chlorophyll
# "
9
Photosynthesis annually produces above 50 10 t of oxygen (i.e., an order of
3.3 10 14 % of its supply in the atmosphere). Hence, we can see that only by means of
photosynthesis can the oxygen supplies in the atmosphere be totally renewed during
a time period of 300,000 years. About 80% of the total amount of oxygen produced
by photosynthesis results from the day-to-day activity of phytoplankton, and land

vegetation communities produce only 20%. If we denote by RF '; ; t and
R '; ; t the production by phytoplankton F and the land surface of type at
an Earth surface point '; at a time moment t, then oxygen ¯uxes to the hydro-
sphere and from land to the atmosphere can be described by the relationships:
HO
1 aF RF ; HO
2 a R ; HO
21 as RF ;
where the coecients aF , a , and aS depend on phytoplankton species and the type of
vegetation. To average them out we use data on ¯uxes: H O 1 =140 tO2 km
2
yr 1 ,
O 2 1 O 2 1 2 1
H 2 70 tO2 k yr , H 21 600 tO2 km yr , RF 401.3 t km yr , and
R 102.4 t km 2 yr 1 . Then aF 0.35, a 0.68, and aS 1.49. Of course, these
estimates have a considerable spatiotemporal scatter. In particular, using data on the
productivity of some oceans, we obtain values for the coecient aF : the Atlantic
Ocean 0.53; the Indian Ocean 0.25; the Arctic Ocean 11.1; and the Paci®c Ocean 0.64.
Apart from photosynthesis, photolysis can be a source of oxygen in the atmo-
sphere (i.e., the decomposition of water vapor under the in¯uence of UV radiation in
the upper layers of the atmosphere). However, the intensity of this source under
present conditions is negligible. Nevertheless, let us denote this ¯ux by H O
3 aH W A ,
where WA is water vapor content in the atmosphere; and aH is an empirical coe-
cient. If we assume that in the upper layers of the atmosphere a constant share of WA
can reside, then at H O 3 0.0039 tO2 km
2
yr 1 and WA 0.025 m, we have
7
aH 1.56 10 per year.
Vernadsky (1944) considered rock metamorphism, basaltic volcanism, and
underground radioactive waters as possible sources of oxygen. However, there are
no suciently reliable estimates of these ¯uxes and therefore it is impossible to
parameterize them.
4.5.1.2 Processes of oxygen assimilation

The oxidation process both on land and in water is the basic consumer of oxygen on
Earth. The ability of oxygen to react with many elements of the Earth crust forms the
¯uxes of oxygen leaving biospheric reservoirs. The balance between the income and
expenditure ¯uxes of oxygen was reached in the course of the biospheric evolution.
Oxygen is spent on respiration by plants, animals, humans, and on dead organic
matter decomposition both in the hydrosphere and on land. To parameterize the
income parts of oxygen balance, we use the following models: H O 5 a1 T ,
HO6 a T
2 F , H O
7 a T
3 G , H O
19 a T
6 R , H O
8 a R
Q D , and H O
20 a R
5 S , where Tm is
the energy expenditure on respiration (t ; F; G; R); and R is the rate of dead
organic matter decomposition ( Q; D; S).
4.5.2 Indicators of the status of the ozone layer

Atmospheric ozone constitutes 0.64 10 6 of the atmospheric mass and belongs to the
class of optically active gases. It absorbs UV solar radiation in the range 200 nm±
300 nm, strongly aecting thereby the thermal regime of the stratosphere. Moreover,
ozone has a number of vibration±rotation bands of absorption in the IR spectral

region (9.57 mm) and partially absorbs visible radiation in the Chappuis band
(0.6 mm) (Angione et al., 1976). The formation and destruction of ozone have been
described in detail (Kondratyev and Varotsos, 2000; Kondratyev, 1999a).
Ozone forms in the upper stratosphere from molecular oxygen under the in¯u-
ence of UV solar radiation. In the lower stratosphere and troposphere, the source of
ozone is the decomposition of nitrogen dioxide under the in¯uence of UV and visible
radiation. The formation of the vertical pro®le of ozone concentration is connected
with its meridional and vertical transport. The general characteristic of this pro®le is
the total amount of ozone measured by the thickness of its layer given in Dobson
units (1 DU 0.001 cm).
Ozone was ®rst measured in the mid-19th century. For instance, at that time
over Europe and in the region of the Great Lakes ozone maximums varied within
17 ppbv±23 ppbv. At present, the ozone layer over western regions of North America
in April±October is characterized by quantities of 30 5 ppbv. Due to the rapid
economic growth of many Asiatic regions followed by increased volumes of con-
sumed fossil fuels and respective increases in NOx and SO2 emissions (5% per year,
on average), there is an increasing trend in monthly mean ozone concentration of
2 ppbv±6 ppbv per year which is likely to continue until at least 2010. This is despite
the attempts undertaken in Europe and North America to reduce emissions to the
atmosphere of chemical compounds by 8%±10%. Therefore, local measures for
ozone layer stabilization on the global scale have no prospects of success.
Ozone destruction involves a complex set of photochemical reactions and parti-
cipation of compounds of hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine. From the available
estimates, 50%±70% of ozone is destroyed by nitrogen compounds, 20%±30% by
oxygen (O), 10%±20% by water-containing particles of HOx , and less than 1% by
chlorine compounds. The predominant role of nitrogen compounds in ozone destruc-
tion has been con®rmed (Wauben et al., 1997) for all latitudes. The equation of
photochemical equilibrium between concentrations of ozone and nitrogen oxides is
[NO] [O3 ]/[NO2 ] , where the equilibrium constant depends on solar radiation
intensity and can range from 0 to 0.02.
There are various approaches to parameterizing the process of formation and
destruction of the ozone layer. The diculty of deriving dynamic models of the ozone
cycle in the atmosphere has to do with the participation in the cycle of more than 75
chemical reactions, a qualitative and quantitative description of which is impossible
without deriving detailed models of the many minor gas components of the atmo-
sphere. Nevertheless, there are empirical models of the ozone layer, which make it
possible, under the present climatic situation, to obtain adequate spatial distributions
of ozone. For instance, Bekoryukov and Fedorov (1987) derived a simple empirical
model of total ozone content con®rmed by observational data for the Southern
Hemisphere:
XX m
O3 '; P n 'an;m cosm an; m sinm; 4:28
n nm
where P m
n are non-normalized spherical functions of degree n and order m; and an;m
and an; m are empirical coecients whose values are given in Bekoryukov and
Fedorov (1987) and in Krapivin and Kondratyev (2002).
There are also static models to describe the vertical pro®le of ozone density
distribution. One such model is the KruÈger formula:
O3 h 51:4 exp h 40=4:2 mg/m 3 :
By combining static and prognostic models it is possible to predict the levels of
O3 concentration in real time. However, in this case it is necessary to describe
photochemical reactions with other components of the atmosphere and, to a greater
extent, by taking NO2 into account (Agirre-Basurko et al., 2006). Some other ozone
models were reviewed by Kondratyev and Varotsos (2000).
The simplest dynamic model of the ozone layer can be written in the form of a
balance equation that re¯ects its income±expenditure components. Ozone supplies
are replenished by reactions between UV radiation on oxygen (H O 11 e3 OA ) and
nitrogen dioxide (H O12 e2 NA ). The ozone layer is curently being destroyed at a rate
HO14 O3 =T3 , where T3 is the lifetime of ozone molecules depending on atmospheric
pollution: T3 T O3 e1 B. The lifetime T O
3 of ozone molecules in a perfect atmo-
sphere averages 50±60 days. Participating nitrogen oxides, in contrast to the H O 12
cycle of ozone destruction, contribute much to the magnitude of B.
4.5.3 Anthropogenic impacts on the oxygen and ozone cycles

4.5.3.1 Oxygen cycle and anthropogenic processes
Studies of the history of biospheric evolution reveal a close correlation between
oxygen production intensity and the development of life on Earth. And although
the expected relative oscillations of the oxygen concentration in the near future do
not exceed 10%, the considered impacts on the biosphere do not cover all potential
anthropogenic trends, and therefore cannot be considered reliable. Therefore, let us
analyze the constituents of possible mechanisms for violation of the natural balance
of oxygen. Naturally, our concern is not only for an increase but also a decrease of the
oxygen content in the atmosphere.
The oxygen cycle is complicated by its ability to take part in a lot of chemical
reactions giving a multitude of epicycles. This fact makes the oxygen cycle suciently
stable but hinders assessment of its stability.
Anthropogenic forcing on numerous epicycles of oxygen manifests itself both
directly through its involvement in other cycles of substances at fuel burning and
production of various materials, and indirectly through environmental pollution and
biospheric destruction. Therefore, parameterization of the anthropogenic impact on
the oxygen balance is realized within other units of the global model. Flux H O18 , taken
into account in Figure 4.7, completely covers the direct consumption of oxygen both
in industry and in agriculture. Let us assume H O 18 y1 RMG , where RMG is the rate of
natural resource expenditure; and y1 is a coecient (0.084).
Fluxes H O O
15 and H 16 are strongly aected by anthropogenic forcings. Their
variations are caused by the discharge of high-temperature industrial sewage
containing considerable numbers of oxidizers, as well as by oil-polluted water bodies.

The quantitative characteristics of the change in oxygen dissolved in water as a
function of temperature have been studied comprehensively. The empirical formula
to calculate the concentration of seawater-dissolved oxygen has the form (Ramad,
1981): [O2 dissolved] 80/(0.2TO 7.1), where [O2 ] is expressed in mg/L and TO in

C. The estimates of oxygen solubility in water are well known (Krapivin and
Kondratyev, 2002).
Fluxes H O O
9 and H 19 , which balance the oxygen ¯uxes into water under natural
conditions, as a result of anthropogenic forcing increase, as a rule, due to more active
aerobic bacteria and the increasing metabolic needs of animals. For instance, a 10 C
increase in water temperature increases the oxygen expenditure on respiration of
marine animals by a factor of 2.2.
One of the negative manifestations of anthropogenic impact on the oxygen cycle
is depletion of the ozone layer, especially marked in polar regions. There are various
hypotheses on the causes of sharply changing concentrations of ozone, as well as
discussions on the so-called `òzone hole'' over the Antarctic. The main cause of all
violations is connected with progressive human activity accompanied by the growing
volumes of long-lived components emitted to the atmosphere (e.g., freons). The
consequences of these violations are very serious, and the real scale of danger threat-
ening life on Earth can only be estimated using a global model of the nature±society
system.
The diversity of anthropogenic impacts on the global biogeochemical cycle of
oxygen is determined by direct and indirect causes of breaking the natural balance of
oxygen. According to the equation of photosynthesis, the gram-molecular amounts
of assimilated CO2 and emitted O2 are equal. Also equal are the gram-molecular
amounts of assimilated O2 and emitted CO2 for dead organic matter decomposition
and fuel burning. Hence, for time periods of tens and hundreds of years, the change in
CO2 amount in the atmosphere is accompanied by the same change in O2 , but in the
opposite direction. For instance, a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere leads to a
decrease in the amount of O2 . But, since the volume concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere is now estimated at 0.031% and that of O2 at 20.946%, in this case a
decrease of O2 will constitute only 0.15% of the total O2 content in the atmosphere.
Imagine the following situation. Let the total biomass of the biosphere
(9.6 10 11 tC), all the organic matter of soil (14 10 11 tC), and all the fossil chem-
ical fuel, the known deposits of which constitute 128 10 11 t of conditional fuel
(64 10 11 t C), be burnt. Then, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would increase
by a factor of 12.5, and that of O2 , respectively, would decreaseÐbut only by 1.75%.
Hence, the amount of oxygen over hundreds of years has to be practically constant.
However, it should be borne in mind that the region of excess anthropogenic
emissions of CO2 and, hence, O2 assimilation is concentrated over a relatively small
area, comprising cities and forest ®res. Since concentrations in the atmosphere do not
equalize instantly, the gradient of O2 concentrations can be given for these sites, early
warning of insucient oxygen provision for animals and humans. Therefore, the
model of the global oxygen cycle (MGOC unit) re¯ecting spatial heterogeneities in the
distributions of O2 concentrations, enables us to identify such dangerous territories.
Figure 4.8. Simpli®ed scheme of the biogeochemical oxygen cycle in the biosphere.
The interaction between the cycles of oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur, phosphorus, and
carbon manifests itself through the processes of oxidation and decomposition. The
level at which global model units are detailed does not permit re¯ection of all the
diversity of these processes. Therefore, in the simplest case, when only averaged
characteristics of the oxygen cycle elements are taken into account, the scheme in
Figure 4.7 of global O2 ¯uxes can be presented as the schemes in Figures 4.8 and 4.9.
The indicated stability of O2 concentration in the atmosphere makes it possible to
simplify the description of the MGOC unit, using a single balance equation:
@O @O @O
V' V k0 RF kL RL L T L bG G F TF G TG Q RQ ;
@t @' @
where k0 and kL are indicators of the rate of O2 emission due to photosynthesis in the
ocean and on land, respectively; s is the indicator of the role of respiration of land
vegetation (s L), animals (s F), and humans (s G) in the removal of oxygen
from the atmosphere; and Q is the rate of O2 consumption at the decomposition of
the dead organic matter in the soil.
4.5.3.2 Assessment of the role of aviation in ozonosphere change

The problem of monitoring and predicting the dynamics of the ozone layer is just
as important as the problem of the atmospheric greenhouse eect (Varotsos and
Figure 4.9. Reserves, ¯uxes, and lifetimes of oxygen in its basic reservoirs.
Kondratyev, 1998a, b; Popovicheva et al., 2000). In both cases there are contra-
dictory estimates of the causes of ecological danger at the observed levels of ozone
concentration, ozone destruction, or greenhouse gases. Despite such contradictory
estimates, often displaying a political awareness (Zuev, 2000), these problems attract
the attention of experts from the various ®elds of natural sciences, who are trying to
create information technologies to ensure a high level of objectivity and reliability of
estimates of the consequences of anthropogenic interference with the global biochem-
ical cycles of ozone, carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and other minor gas
components (MGCs). Let us now consider the narrowÐbut importantÐproblem of
ozone layer changes over small areas caused by aviation ¯ightpaths over this terri-
tory. This problem has recently attracted growing attention. The impact of ¯ights of
subsonic (altitudes 9 km±13 km) and supersonic (16 km±20 km) aircraft on the ozono-
sphere has become substantial, at least, on a regional scale. The more so because the
volumes of global air transportation are increasing by almost 5% annually, and the
amount of emitted nitrogen oxides, sulfur compounds, and other MGCs is increasing
by about 4% annually. According to average global estimates, NOx emissions
(NO NO2 ) now constitute about 500 ktN yr 1 , with their predicted increase up
to 1,100 ktN yr 1 by 2015.
The substances ejected by aircraft to the atmosphere include H2 SO4 , HNO3 ,

HNO2 , HNO, Cl, NO3 , ClO2 , CO, CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, H2 O, SO2 , SO3 , N2 O5 , CH3 Cl,
Cl2 , CH3 NO2 , CH3 NO3 , BrONO2 , HNO4 , ClONO2 . Many of these are responsible
for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, aect markedly the aerosol
composition of the atmosphere, and intensify the greenhouse eect.
Analysis of the distribution of these components in the atmosphere requires an
understanding of photochemistry and atmospheric dynamics. Unfortunately, current
ideas about the rates of reactions in which these substances participate, about the
coecients of micro/macro-turbidity, and about local synoptic characteristics are
limited by data averaged in time and space. As a result many authors have found
ways of simplifying matters to overcome these information uncertainties.
Atmospheric ozone chemistry has been well studied (Kondratyev and Varotsos,
2000). Nevertheless, this knowledge is insucient to derive a model of the biogeo-
chemical cycle of ozone that would satisfy everyone. The main problem relates to the
time-dependent nature of environmental processes. Unfortunately, neither simple nor
complicated climate models (which take into detailed account the compounds
involved in the atmospheric chemistry of ozone) give acceptable results. Therefore,
an approach needs to be found that will raise the reliability of estimates of the state of
the ozone layer over a given territory. Application of technology that combines
measurements and modeling and takes into account expert estimates would con-
stitute such an approach. In this case, to assess the vertical pro®le of ozone, all
available information (scienti®c and empirical) can be used on ozone formation
and destruction, and the additional background information about anthropogenic
and natural processes can be obtained from established correlations or scenarios.
One of the diculties in synthesizing a model of ozone dynamics and observa-
tional data is the necessity to adequately describe the location of the tropopause.
There is uncertainty in the ¯ightpaths of subsonic aircraft regarding accurate
determination of the height of the tropopause. This is very important since, depend-
ing on whether the ¯ight path is below the tropopause or in the stratosphere,
photochemical reactions with ozone dier. With supersonic aviation, there is no
problem as all ¯ightpaths lie in the stratosphere. Therefore, to exclude instability
from the model, we assume the hypothesis of seasonal change in tropopause altitude
following a binary law: in spring and summer Z1 , and in autumn and winter Z2 .
This approach excludes the instability of using estimates. Nevertheless, there
have been many successful attempts at modeling ozone photochemistry. A number
of Lagrange-type models are ecient and some take into account up to 75 chemical
elements and compounds. The 3-D model MOZART (Model for OZone And
Related chemical Tracers) is also ecient (Kondratyev and Varotsos, 2000).
In this section the diculty of estimating the vertical pro®le of the ozone con-
centration in the atmosphere over small areas is considered by taking into account
only one of many anthropogenic sources that have an eect on the ozonosphere,
aviation. Since the range of substances ejected by aircraft is large, the consequences of
aircraft ¯ight over these areas include numerous changes in both the gas and aerosol
composition of the atmosphere. Of course, the scale of these changes is determined by
the intensity of aircraft ¯ights and the density of ¯ight corridors. We now propose a
method of integrating these causes and develop an information system, which can be
used for regional and national monitoring. Moreover, the presentation of the input
information and the spectrum of chemical reactions have been limited so that aircraft
operators can substitute their own lists of substances contained in exhaust gases.
Units of the Simulation System to Control the Regional Ozonosphere (SSCRO)
are enumerated in Table 4.9. The territory in question O is covered by a geographical
grid with steps D' and D representing latitude and longitude, respectively. Over
each cell Oi j f'; : 'i ' 'i1 ; j j1 ; i 1; . . . ; N; j 1; . . . ; Mg the
possible location (altitude and time) of the ¯ight corridor is determined. For this
purpose, in the database for SSCRO an indicator is formed of the ¯ight load on O
(type of engine, fuel, velocity, and ¯ight altitude). The background concentration of
ozone and the meteorological situation are assumed to be taken from the data of
regional, national, and global systems of environmental monitoring.
Ozone concentration as a function of spatial coordinates and time is calculated
by the formula:
@O3 '; ; z; t
QSU P R; 4:29
@t
where z is the altitude, and the functionals in the right-hand side of Equation (4.29)
describe the following processes of ozone formation: Q is the change in ozone
concentration due to atmospheric motion and gravitational sedimentation; P and
U are the photochemical destruction and formation of ozone outside the passageway,
respectively; and R and S are the photochemical destruction and formation of ozone
within the ¯ight corridor.
Equation (4.29), with initial data for time moment t t0 , is solved by taking
account of the mosaic of ¯ight corridors. Functionals R and S are calculated for
Oi;j;k f'; ; z: '; 2 Oi j ; zk z zk1 g at time moment t only in the presence
of aircraft. Three zones are considered in the interaction of the products of fuel
combustion in the contrails of an aircraft engine: (1) immediately behind all engines
(time duration Dt1 ); (2) when exhaust gases mix with the atmosphere (Dt2 ); and (3) on
the mixture's ways of penetrating large-scale reservoirs (Dt3 ). Hence, after the aircraft
transits there exists a passageway for a time period Dt Dt1 Dt2 Dt3 , after
which R'i ; j ; z; k; t S'i ; j ; z; k; t 0 and according to Equation (4.29) the
functionals Q, U, and P start working.
During time period Dt there are many transformation processes of substances
ejected by aircraft engines within the ¯ight corridor. The term `ìndex of transforma-
tions in a jet'' is an integral estimate of the concentrations of these substances as a
function of time. Let us suppose that exhaust took place at moment t0 (the moment of
aircraft transit over a given point of the Earth surface). Then, the index of transfor-
mation of chemicals in the contrail after the ¯ight can be presented by a three-step
function:
8
< JN1 ; for t0 t < t0 Dt1 ;
>
JN t JN2 ; for t0 Dt1 t < t0 Dt1 Dt2 ; 4:30
>
:J
N3 for t0 Dt1 Dt2 t < t0 Dt1 Dt2 Dt3 :
Table 4.9. The characteristics of SSCRO units.
Unit Functions of the unit
AADB Algorithmic adaptation of the database to the structure of the controlled

territory. A matrix structure is developed with elements reliably attaching
environmental elements to geographical coordinates, con®guration of the
territory of the region, location on it of objects such as airports, and division
of the territory into land and water.
IRDB Information renewal of the database. A possibility is provided to operationally

change the con®guration and appearance of the territory described in AADB.
MIF Management of information ¯uxes between SSCRO units. The dimensions of

model parameters are coordinated; the dimensions of input data are
coordinated with the scales assumed in SSCRO. For instance, the formula
1 ppmv 10 3 M=Mi mg m 3 , where Mi is the molecular weight of the ith
chemical element. Formulas of the type 1 mgO3 /m 2 ) 0.467 10 7 atm-cm are
also re-calculated.
CFSU Control of the functions of system units. Depending on the availability of

needed information in the database about correlations between various
processes, a version is selected from alternative versions that does not
contradict the database.
PADB Parametric agreement of the models and database. Signals of the user's
interface are analyzed for an ecient removal from the database of the
coecients of models, or in case of disagreements the model is substituted for
the scenario.
MPR Modeling the photochemical reactions in the ¯ight corridor with selection of
three stages: (1) in the nearest zone after an ejection of fuel from the aircraft;
(2) scattering the jet of fuel; (3) complete mixing with the surrounding
atmosphere.
MPTO Modeling the processing of propagation and transformation of ozone in the

interaction between the contrail and the surrounding atmosphere.
MFDO Modeling the formation and destruction of ozone by taking account of all
¯ight corridors over the territory in question.
CCAB Calculation of corrections for the atmospheric balance of ozone by considering

the eects of land cover and sea surface.
FBLO Formation of the background level of ozone either from data provided by a
regional and global monitoring system or using a model.
FS Formation of scenarios for the location of ¯ight corridors and of their load.
MUII Management of the user's information interface. Provision of computer

experiments.
The values JNi (i 1; 2; 3) depend on the time of day, season, and on many other
parameters (temperature, altitude, geographical coordinates). Empirical estimates of
JNi are introduced to the system's database and used to calculate JN t. With further
improvement of SSCRO it will be expedient to include a unit to give theoretical
estimates of JNi .
Since an aircraft ¯ies at velocity Va along the route x'; ; z, at time moment t0
it is at some point x0 , and all its engines eject VM t0 of the substance of M type.
Taking (4.30) into account we obtain:
8
< L1 ; for t0 t < t0 Dt1 ;
VM t L2 ; for t0 Dt1 t < t0 Dt1 Dt2 ;
:
L3 ; for t0 Dt1 Dt2 t < t0 Dt;
where
t t0
L1 VM t0 VM t0 JN1 VM t0 ;
Dt1
t0 Dt1 Dt2 t
L2 J2 VM t0 VM t0 JN1 JN2 ;
Dt2
t0 Dt1 Dt2 t
L3 J3 VM t0 VM t0 JN2 JN3 :
Dt3
After time Dt the eects of the aircraft ¯ight are considered to cease and all
processes involved in the transformation and destruction of ozone within the ¯ight
corridor after the ¯ight return to normal. The zone of the contrail behind the ¯ying
aircraft has a circular section of diameter r, and during the time period Dt1 Dt2
its interaction with the surrounding atmosphere can be considered negligibly small.
At the third stage, this interaction begins with slight contact between the two media.
At any rate, the interaction between the ¯ight corridor and the surrounding
atmosphere needs to be speci®ed and developed by forming a set of scenarios.
NOx is the most important component of exhaust gases. During the lifetime of an
aircraft contrail NOx gets oxidized by hydroxyl, present in the contrail, giving o
HNO3 and HO2 NO2 . As laboratory studies have shown, the processes of formation
and destruction of ozone are also aected markedly by the heterogenic mechanisms
of the impact on atmospheric chemistry. This impact manifests itself both within
the ¯ight corridor and in a free atmosphere. In particular, the reaction
N2 O5 H2 O2 HNO3 with sulfate aerosols, mainly resulting from aircraft ¯ight,
reduces the rate of ozone destruction due to the NOx cycle, but raises the negative
role of Clx and HOx in O3 destruction.
The second important component of exhaust gases is SO2 , the ejection of which
by engines doubles the area occupied by sulfate particles in the atmosphere of the
¯ight corridor, which leads to an increase of O3 losses. In a number of ®eld experi-
ments (Kraabol and Stordal, 2000) onboard an F-16 and in laboratory experiments
of the F-100 engine using several types of aviation fuel with high (1,150 ppmS),
moderate (170 ppmS±300 ppmS), and low (10 ppmS) content of sulfur, the SO2
emission changed from 2.49 gSO2 kg 1 for fuel with a high sulfur content to
0.01 gSO2 kg 1 for fuel with a low sulfur content. For these experiments the following
relationship was derived:
SO3
0:02 0:14:
SO2 SO3
The results of studies carried out by Weisenstein et al. (1998) show that the ways
in which the composition of engine exhaust gases evolve as they interact with the
atmosphere have been poorly studied; hence, the importance of further development
of kinetic models describing the role of aircraft ¯ights in changing the atmosphere.
The functional Q in (4.29) is written following the traditional scheme

@O3 @O3 @O3 @ @O3 @ @O3 @ @O3
Q v' v vz D' D Dz ;
@' @ @z @' @' @ @ @z @z
where VV' ; V ; Vz is the wind speed; and DD' ; D ; Dz is the coecient of eddy
diusion.
The units CCAB, MFDO, and MPTO divide the functional Q by taking the
output information from the unit AADB into consideration (see Table 4.9). As a
result, air mass mixing is realized at two stages:
(1) mixing of the atmospheric zone of aircraft ¯ight with the environment; and
(2) mixing of the cells fOi; j;k g selected by the AADB unit. As a ®rst stage the volumes
and location of the zone of eect of aircraft are calculated:
! f'; ; z : '0 ' '1 ; 0 1 ; z0 z z1 g;
where '1 '0 Va' Dt=k' ; 1 0 Va Dt=k ; Dz z1 z0 is the diameter of
the zone of the impact of aircraft (Dz r); '0 and 0 are the latitude and
longitude of the aircraft location at time moment t0 ; ' and are the number
of kilometers within 1 of latitude and longitude, respectively; and z1 and z0 are
the lower and upper boundaries of the ¯ight corridor.
If the obtained space ! agrees with the adjacent multitude of atmospheric units
fOi jk g, then the ozone content is averaged over ! and the adjacent compartments
fOi jk g with their volumes taken into account.
The second stage realizes a two-step procedure that re-calculates the ozone
concentration over the whole space X f'; ; z : '; 2 O; 0 z zH g, where
zH is the altitude of the atmospheric boundary layer (zH 70 km), whose considera-
tion is important in estimating the state of the regional ozonosphere. These two steps
correspond to the vertical and horizontal constituents of atmospheric motion. This
division is made for convenience, so that the user of the expert system can choose a
synoptic scenario. According to the available estimates (Karol 0 , 2000; Kraabol et al.,
2000; Meijer and Velthoven, 1997), the processes involved in vertical mixing prevail in
the dynamics of ozone concentration. It is here that, due to uncertain estimates of Dz ,
there are serious errors in model calculations. Therefore the units CCAB, MFDO,
and MPTO (see Table 4.9) provide the user with the principal possibility to choose
various approximations of the vertical pro®le of the eddy diusion coecient (Dz ).
The database of SSCRO contains versions of estimates of Dz (m 2 /s) already used by

many authors in the models of ozone dynamics 3m 2 /s 1 ; 0.5(V' V ):
8 2 1
>
< 10 m s for 0 z 10 km;
Dz 10 2:5710 z for 10 < z 13 km;
>
:
70 1:2270 z for 13 < z 70 km.
Since model retrieval of the background situation over a given territory has
numerous versions that require information on regional and global processes, the
SSCRO foresees the possibility of applying dierent models of the dynamics of
ozone. But the scenario is deliberately intended to be basic, and under the control
of an aircraft operator using data from the regional or global ozonometric network.
The operator can prescribe a discrete function O3;i; j;k;s Q3 'i ; j ; zk ; ts , a priori
considering the value of O3;i; j;k;s an average estimate of the function
Q3 'i ; j ; zk ; ts in space Oi jk for time period ts 1 t ts .
Possibilities are foreseen to choose various versions of approximation of the O3
function over the whole territory by a number of latitudinal and meridional
distributions.
In this case only the ozone±air mixing ratio can be prescribed. From this ratio the
O3 function can be reconstructed, provided the SSCRO database contains informa-
tion on the vertical pro®le of air density at any point '; 2 O. The respective
computer dialog procedure makes this choice automatic.
One of the important elements of how the SSCRO functions is the way in which
the database is updated as it adapts to the conditions of a given region: the
database includes information about the ¯ight timetable over the region and other
characteristics of the engines, cruising altitude, airspeed, location of airports, air
route, etc.
All background information is concentrated in the form of matrix structures,
such as F k fi j k, D kdi j k, C kci j k, B kbi j k, where fi j is a vector whose com-
ponents contain all the needed information for the ith arrival ¯ight ( fi1 time of
landing, fi2 arrival direction, fi3 type of engine, fi4 airspeed, fi5 cruising altitude,
fi6 and fi7 latitude and longitude of the airport of entry), and other possible
characteristics; the di j vector contains similar information about departing aircraft,
the ci j vector describes information about air routes and transit aircraft, and, ®nally,
the bi j vector decodes the fi3 component, giving the volume of fuel burnt, its type, and
the composition of exhaust gases. Transit ¯ights, with intermediate ¯ight breaks at
airports in the region, are taken into account by identi®ers F and D separately, before
landing and after take-o.
Model estimates of the impact of aircraft on the atmosphere and climate, which
can be obtained using the SSCRO, will make it possible with available synoptic
information to solve the problem of optimizing ¯ight corridors and ¯ight timetables.
Considering various scenarios of the aircraft load on the regional ozonosphere using
the SSCRO, it is possible to determine the location of ¯ight corridors that, in other
similar conditions, will reduce the consequences of this load. There is also the
possibility of specifying the compounds of other biogeochemical processes that

participate in greenhouse gases.
4.5.4 Numerical model of the global oxygen cycle

Assuming the scheme of oxygen ¯uxes in nature (shown in Figure 4.7) to be balanced,
let us write the equations of the model in the following traditional form of balanced
relationships (Table 4.8):
@OA @OA @OA X
8
V' V HO O O O O
2 H 3 H 14 H 15 H 16 HO
i HO
11 HO
18 ;
@t @' @ i4
@O3 @O3 @O3

V' V HO O
11 H 12 HO
14 ;
@t @' @
@OS
HO
21 HO16 HO17 HO19;S HO
20 ;
@t
@OU @OU @OU
V' V HO O O
1;U H 13;PU H 17 HO 9;U HO 10;PU HO
15 HO
19;U ;
@t @' @
@OP @OP @OP
V' V HO O O
1;P H 10;PU H 13;PL HO
9;P HO
10;PL
@t @' @
HO
13;PU HO
19;P ;
@OL
QL H O O
10;PL H 13;LF HO9;L HO
10;LF HO
13;PL ;
@t
@OF
QF H O
10;LF HO9;F HO
13;LF :
@t
Here QL and QF denote the oxygen ¯uxes resulting from mixing of the deep and
bottom layers of the ocean. The oxygen exchange between the hydrosphere and the
atmosphere (¯uxes H O O
15 and H 16 ) depend on its partial pressures at the water±air
border. The directions of ¯uxes H O O
15 and H 16 depends on the relationship between
temperatures Ta , TU , and TS . Due to high concentrations of oxygen in the
atmosphere, the partial pressure varies negligibly, and therefore the ¯uxes H O 15 and
HO 16 can be considered to depend only on oscillations in the concentrations of O U and
OS : H O15 k OU T U T a O U ; H O
16 kOS T S T a O S . If we assume OU 5.5 mL/L
and OS 2.1 mL/L, then at TU Ta TS Ta 2 C, H O 15 18 t km
2
yr 1 , and
H 16 140 t km yr we obtain kOU 0.5 10 km/ C/yr and kOS 0.1 10 2 km/
O 2 1 4

C/yr.
The ocean layers exchange oxygen by circulation processes, and as a result,
depending on latitude, longitude, and season, the intensity of ¯uxes H O 10 and H 13
O
can sharply change. In any case, this intensity mainly depends on the velocities vA of
vertical water uplifting and vH of its lowering. In the zones of upwellings the ¯ux H O 13
prevails and, in contrast, the ¯ux H O 10 prevails in convergence zones. The velocities vA
and vH range from 0 m/s to 0.1 m/s. The most characteristic values of these velocities
range from 10 2 m/s to 10 4 m/s. For instance, near California vA 0.77 10 5 m/s,
and in Bangladesh uplifting vA 0.25 m/s. Thus, for ¯uxes H O O

10 and H 13 we use the
O O
following approximations H 10 O O and H 13 O O , where
and are the coecients of local mixing ( U; P; L; P; L; F).
In the marginal shelves of the ocean, oxygen balance formation is much aected
by the run-o from continents. Despite the complexity of this process, the following
simple parameterization can be accepted for this case:
HO
17 nSU OS OU :
4.6 THE ROLE OF WATER IN THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE
4.6.1 The role of precipitation

The transport and transformation of CO2 in land ecosystems are closely connected
with the heat and water regime of the atmosphere±plant±soil system. These processes
are functions of the hydrometeorological and actinometric characteristics of the
vegetation ecosystem. An important element in the speci®cation of the global model
of CO2 cycle in the biosphere is consideration of the role of the process of its leaching
from the atmosphere with precipitation. Although this process is unilateral, it has
been inadequately studied. Nevertheless, there is direct experimental evidence of CO2
assimilation by rain drops (Egan et al., 1991). In particular, one con®rmation of the
fact that precipitation leaches CO2 from the atmosphere is the presence in rain of
a considerable amount (up to 15 mg L 1 ) of the hydrocarbonate ion HCO 3 .
A combined analysis of precipitation amount and variations in atmospheric CO2
concentration over the same territory, using the data of the global observational
network, made it possible to reveal the persistent correlation between these processes.
Figure 4.10 shows curves of change in average monthly precipitation and concentra-
Figure 4.10. Variations of precipitation amount (solid curve) and CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere (dashed curve). Estimates from integrated data of the observatory observations
within the framework of the Global Carbon Project (GCP).
Sec. 4.6] 4.6 The role of water in the global carbon cycle 261
tion of atmospheric CO2 . We see that the dependence between changes in atmo-
spheric CO2 and precipitation is suciently stable. Detailed analysis of this depen-
dence for various latitudinal belts or for other con®gurations of smaller territories
reveals similar patterns independent of geophysical coordinates. We should point out
here the high sensitivity of the correlation between the duration and type of pre-
cipitation. For instance, during a shower the HCO 3 concentration in precipitation
can either double or halve depending on the presence or lack of thunderstorms.
Moreover, this ratio depends strongly on the duration of the precipitation period.
Observations showed that with the increasing duration of rain the concentration of
HCO 3 ions decreases. In other words, the interaction between CO2 concentration
and moisture content in the atmosphere is an important component of the global
carbon cycle.
Formalization of the role of rain in the global CO2 cycle requires a model of CO2
absorption by water droplets falling at velocity u. The most widely used version of
such a model is an equation of gas balance on the surface of rain droplets:
dC 3D pp
2 1 0:3 Re 3 ScCA C ;
dz ur
where D is the coecient of CO2 diusion in the air; r is the droplet radius; C is the
balanced concentration of CO2 in a droplet; CA is the CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere; z is altitude; Sc =D is the Schmidt number; is the kinematic
viscosity; and Re 2ru= is the Reynolds number.
The diversity of forms of precipitation over the globe complicates consideration
of their role in the global CO2 cycle. This problem can be solved in two ways. The ®rst
is formal numerical description of the totality of the processes of precipitation
formation. The second is connected with the use of the present means of global
observation of precipitation. In both cases the forms of rain should be clearly
classi®ed as functions of meteorological situations. The rain rate can range widely
from 1 mm hr 1 to 8 mm hr 1 and, in exceptional cases, even more. What is more,
there is a certain correlation between precipitation rate and size of rain droplet. With
low-intensity rain r 2 0:1; 0:5. A shower can be characterized by the formation of
droplets up to r 6 mm.
Thus, the problem of assessing the role of precipitation in leaching CO2 from the
atmosphere is urgent, and to solve it the global model should separately take into
account the change in hydrological cycles over the World Ocean and over land, since
these regions of the planet dier in their interaction with the atmosphere.
4.6.2 Water budget in the atmosphere±land system

Land±atmosphere exchange processes include the evaporation of soil moisture, from
the leaf surface, stems, and trunks of plants, as well as transpiration, precipitation,
and evaporation o the surface of unstable water accumulations low in the
ground (Figure 4.11). The water ¯ow from the soil through the plant is the least
studied link in this chain. The importance of the process of transpiration in the global
water cycle cam be judged from available estimates, according to which the process of
Figure 4.11. Water ¯uxes across the border of a small land territory.
transpiration takes more water than photosynthesis. For instance, from average
estimates, to grow a 20 t yield (wet mass), plants extract from the soil about
2,000 t of water, with only 3 t of the used water being atomic hydrogen bound to
atomic carbon in photosynthesis.
A model description of the process of transportation requires an understanding
of the role played by the physical and physiological factors in this process. A
simpli®ed idea about this role can be reduced to the following. If the plant roots
are in suciently wet soil, then the rate of transpiration is a function of temperature,
humidity, wind speed, and insolation. Beyond some threshold of soil moisture, when
the water supply in soil dries up, the role of these physical factors sharply diminishes,
being inferior to the physiological factors: the type of plants, the construction of
roots, phase of development, type of soil, and soil layer thickness. This threshold can
vary from 5 cm to 50 cm of the precipitable water. At any rate, if, for a given type of
plant, water is not a limiting factor (i.e., water is not limited), then, as a ®rst
approximation, the total growth of plants can be considered proportional to total
potential transpiration for the whole period of growth. The latter is proportional to
the amount of incoming solar radiation.
At present about 12% of total evaporation from the Earth's surface is used by
plants in the process of photosynthesis. In this process about 2,250 km 3 of water
participate annually with a return coecient of 0.75. Therefore, the simplest descrip-
tion of transpiration is wST t; i; j i j WS t; i; j, where i j depends on vegetation
productivity. The values of i j are 0.67 for forests, 0.44 for grassland, and 0.25 for
agricultural crops. However, in real situations WS is a limiting factor in the more
complicated dependence of the impact on transpiration rate by the rate of photo-

synthesis Rp . In other words, wST kp Rp , where kp is the transpiration coecient
for the plants of p type. As a ®rst approximation, we can use Rp "p rp , where "p is
the share of solar energy, assimilated by the pth type of plants in the process of
photosynthesis. The value "p depends on the presence of water accessible for
plants:
"p "p;0 1 exp "p;1 WS t; i; j;
where "p;0 is the value of "p when there is sucient water; and "p;1 is the coecient
re¯ecting the reduction of solar energy assimilated by plants when the amount of
accessible water is decreasing. On average, "p;0 is reached at WS 10 mm. Assuming
"p ="p;0 0.9, we have "p;1 0.23. In this case rp 9.6 kg km 2 da 1 of dry substance
(or 37 kg of wet phytomass). Coecient kp is estimated for each type of plants.
Coecient kp is equal to 368 for maize, 397 for sugarbeet, 435 for wheat, 636 for
potatoes, 462 for cotton (kgH2 O/kg of pure substance).
One of the models in the process of transpiration can be written as
wST YS 24a b, where YS is the return of water; a is the rate at which ground
water rises (cm/hr); and b is the average daily change in ground water level (cm).
Within the GMNSS, to describe the process of the atmosphere±land interaction,
¯uxes wSA , wST , and wAS are used, the parametric descriptions of which serve as
the basis for this unit. Information on precipitation wAS is usually included in the
information bulletins (weather forecasts) of hydrometeorological services. The
history of the distribution of precipitation in the form of a set of matrices
WAS kwAS ; i; jk, where i; j 2 C, are given time moments of precipitation
recorded by hydrometeorological services, is used to derive the functional
wAS t; i; j FWAS 1 ; . . . ; WAS N ; t. This is carried out by means of extrapola-
tion and evolutionary modeling. Such an approach requires data on precipitation
over a given geographical grid D' D. However, this database can also be modeled
by simulating the global cloud ®eld, thus ensuring precipitation. The simplest para-
meterization of clouds consists in prescribing threshold WA;max , beyond which excess
atmospheric moisture transforms into water and precipitates. To reduce the inevit-
able errors (mainly caused by overestimation of precipitation), it is expedient to
introduce a threshold matrix Wmax kWA;max i; jk, i; j 2 C. Then,

0; for WA t; i; j WA;max ;
wAS t; i; j
WA;max WA t; i; j; for WA t; i; j > WA;max :
If value WA;max i; j corresponds to the real critical value of the moisture content
in the atmosphere over Oi j , then wAS has been overestimated. It is assumed here that
at WA t; i; j > WA;max cloud ®lls the whole cell Oi j , which does not always corre-
spond with reality. Moreover, the fact that a considerable amount of moisture, even
exceeding the critical level, can remain in the cloud and evaporate is disregarded.
Therefore, to take these special features into account, the adaptive coecient W < 1
should be introduced.
Let us divide precipitation into two basic types: solid and liquid. This division
can be made by means of the thermal principle or by seasons. The thermal principle is
preferable due its ¯exibility in the event of sudden climate change and possible
shifting of seasonality. Synoptic division of the seasons that experience dierent
precipitation is justi®ed in various regions of the globe. The average daily tempera-
ture at the onset of solid precipitation (snow) is below zero, ranging from 4 C to
7 C. On the border of this division the precipitation of a dierent type is observed.
The relationship between the types of precipitation is described by the formula
xT a bT, where xT is the share of solid precipitation; T is temperature; and a
and b are empirical coecients. For the Atlantic climatic zone a 50 and b 5.
To parameterize the process of evaporation from land, numerous formulas are
used. Here a simple dependence is assumed:
wSA t; i; j i j 1 exp i j =i j =i j ;
where i j is a maximum possible rate of evaporation in the region; and i j is the total
amount of moisture getting into the soil per unit time.
The choice of model to simulate the evaporation process is determined by the
character of the database used. Evaporation from the soil surface substantially
depends on the type of vegetation cover. Evaporation in forests and in ®elds diers
by 30%±40%. This is connected with the heterogeneous impacts on the water regime
within various vegetation covers of such factors as the freezing of soil, the melting
intensity of soil, soil structure, radiation budget, among others. To calculate the
dependence of the rate of evaporation from land on temperature Ti j , the character
of vegetation cover, and the properties of soil, the following formula is used:
wSA t; i; j Ti j =T i j 1 exp 1 Ai j =Ai j 1 2 exp 3 Xi j =X i j ;
where T i j is the surface air temperature in region Oi j , averaged over the period
considered; Ai j and X i j are the average depth of the soil layer and the density of
vegetation cover, respectively; and ; ; 1 ; 2 are empirical coecients.
Detailed analyses of possible models of evaporation from the land surface that
consider the dierent types of vegetation cover and changes of climatic parameters is
given in the works by Bras (1990), Chock and Winkler (2000), and Karley et al.
(1993). In particular, there are formulas to calculate evaporation as a function of the
height and density of vegetation cover, wind speed, and temperature. For instance,
the following dependence is proposed for the rate of complete evaporation:
(
DQN m Lj =D 1 n I1 C; for T < 0 C;
ET
DQN Lj =D ; for T 0 C;
where D is the rate of change in the pressure of saturated vapor as a function of

temperature; QN is the amount of energy reaching the evaporating surface; is the
psychometric coecient ( 0.66 mb K 1 ); I is the share of complete evaporation due
to precipitation retained by foliage; and C is the compensation coecient due to
transpiration. Coecients m, n, and C are functions of height h and type rs of
vegetation:
m 53 ln 2 20=h 2:5; C D =D 1 n ;

n rs m1 U=100=250:
The indicator of the type of vegetation rs (m/s) for some types is estimated at
40 (sun¯ower and alfalfa), 70 (barley and potatoes), 250 (citrus plants), 130 (cotton),
80 (maize and rice), 50 (sugarbeet), 60 (wheat), 400 (tundra), 200 (subtropical
meadows), 100 (temperate-zone meadows), 100±300 (tropical forests), 200±300 (con-
iferous forests), and 100±150 (deciduous forests in mid-latitudes). Typical values of
the parameters n, m, and I are: for grass ecosystems n 2.5, m 3.5 , I 0.2r; for
woodland n 30, m 5, I 0.3r (temperate latitudes), and I 0.15r (tropics),
where r is precipitation.
Albedo is an important parameter when calculating the amount of solar radia-
tion energy participating in the process of evaporation. The relationship between the
height of plants and albedo, as a ®rst approximation, can be described by their linear
dependence. With the height of plants reaching 20 m, albedo decreases from 0.25 to
0.1.The albedo values for some types of land cover are known: heather 0.14; ferns
0.24; natural pastures 0.25; shrubland 0.21; savannah 0.17; deciduous forests in mid-
latitudes 0.1; coniferous forests and orange groves 0.16; eucalyptus forests 0.19; wet
tropical forests 0.13; and waterlogged forests 0.12. The albedo of agricultural ®elds
varies from 0.15 (sugarcane and fruit trees) and 0.26 (sugarbeet, barley, cucumbers).
The surface's role in land±atmosphere water exchange deals with the subdivision
of the phase space into at least two levels: soil and ground water. The soil level plays
the role of a buer zone between precipitation and ground water. The simplest
parameterization of ¯uxes between these levels is reduced to their linear dependences:
wSH t; i; j i j WS t; i; j and wHS t; i; j i j WH t; i; j. However, a more strict
description of the soil level is dictated by the natural heterogeneity of the structure
of Oi j , where small water bodies and land sites of a given relief can be located.
According to the landscape hydrological principle, to simulate Oi j it is necessary
to choose the facies and sites of water surface, which can be done by identifying the
background ¯ora, the concrete condition of which is determined by micro-relief,
types and properties of soil, surface moisture, depth of ground water, and other
factors. It is possible to choose the mi j of facies and the ni j of water bodies. In this
case, soil moisture forms not only as a result of the ¯uxes shown in Figure 4.11, but
also due to leakage and ®ltration of water from the water bodies and aqueducts
located in Oi j .
An important factor of the surface's role in the water balance is in®ltration of
precipitation into the soil both during rainfall and in run-o. The rate of water
take- up by soil wSH is described by the formula wSH kS l, where kS is the coecient
of ®ltration, and l is the hydraulic slope. Let us denote the volume mass of the soil as
, which, on average, varies from 1.4 g/cm 3 to 1.5 g/cm 3 , then for kS it is convenient
to use the Azizov formula: kS 256.32 7:28 ±1.27 1:14 (cm/da). The parameter l
can be calculated using formula l z0 z1 z2 =z0 , where z0 is the depth of the
column that leaches out, z1 is the capillary pressure, and z2 is the height of the
water layer on top of the soil surface. At z0 =z1 2 an approximation

wSH kS t 1=2 0:5kS z1 D 1=2 is valid, where D is the soil moisture de®cit, and t
is time. Other approximations of the function wSH are known, such as the Horton
empirical formula wSH wSH t0 ; i; j kS exp t kS , the Popov formula
wSH r exp rt=D kS , and the Kostiakov formula wSH kS t n , where ,
n, and are calibration parameters, and r is rain intensity.
The interaction between regions of the grid of the biosphere surface fOi j g can be
simulated by ¯uxes wOAA , wAOO , wSS , wSO , wOH , and wHO . Functional presentations
of the land±atmosphere water ¯uxes are usually chosen on the basis of available data
and knowledge. In particular, the available estimates of water renewal time facilitate
and simplify getting such approximations. The renewal times for the atmosphere,
soil moisture, and rivers as basic water reservoirs are known to constitute 7±10 days,
270±290 days, and 12±20 days, respectively. Of course, in each concrete region and
even in a spatial pixel of a given land surface in the GMNSS it is necessary to have
more accurate estimates of this parameter.
4.6.3 Water exchange processes in the atmosphere-ocean system

The processes of transport at the atmosphere±water surface border have been well
studied. The transport of moisture from the surface of a water body into the atmo-
sphere is one of the complicated physical processes of mass and energy exchange
across the water±air interface (Figure 4.12). These processes are functions of many
climatic parameters and, to a large extent, are regulated by eddy motions in the
surface layer of the atmosphere determined by the wind ®eld.
The possibility of estimating water transport from the water surface into the
atmosphere consists in assessing the water content of the lower part of the surface
layer of the atmosphere, which forms spray and water vapor. The eddy ¯ux of water
Figure 4.12. Water ¯uxes across the border of a small territory with a water body.
Table 4.10. The coecient KW (cm 2 /s) of water vapor diusion in the atmosphere at a pressure
of 1,000 mb as a function of temperature T. From Roll (1968).
T ( C) 20 10 0 10 20 30 40
KW 0.197 0.211 0.226 0.241 0.257 0.273 0.289
per unit surface can be described by the relationship:

@q
WV KW w 0 q 0 hw 0 q 0 i;
@z
where WV is the vertical eddy ¯ux of water vapor (g cm 2 s 1 ); KW is the coecient
of the eddy transport of water vapor (cm 2 s) (Table 4.10); q is the speci®c air humidity
(g g 1 ); is air density (g cm 3 ); z is the vertical coordinate; w is the vertical con-
stituent of wind speed (cm s 1 ); and w 0 and q are ¯uctuations in w and q values,
respectively. If we let p be atmospheric pressure, then we can express q through
average water vapor elasticity e: q 0:621e=p.
Evaporation from a water body surface depends on air temperature and can be
described by the function wSA w T ! , where w and w are empirical parameters. If
measurements are made of wind speed (m/s), saturated water vapor pressure at the
temperature of the evaporating surface E1 , and atmospheric pressure p (mmHg), then
we can use the Dalton law to estimate the rate of evaporation, wSA AE1 e=p, as
well as the Shuleikin formula wSA CE1 e, where A and C are parameters
related as A C=p (C 0:45 10 6 g cm 3 mb 1 ). The models by Horton (1937)
and Kohler (1954) are also ecient.
4.6.3.1 Simulation of water ¯uxes in the atmosphere

The atmospheric processes of moisture transport that are directly connected with the
temporal variations of meteorological elements, play an important role in the global
water cycle. Global atmospheric circulation can be described by the Monin model
(Monin and Krasnitsky, 1985):
@v @v @v @v
Vz V R 1
V R 1
sin 1

@t @z @ @
@p
R 1 V 2 ctg 2OV cos R 1
f ;
@
@v @v @v @v
Vz V R 1
V R 1
sin 1

@t @z @ @
1 1 @p
R V V ctg 2OV cos R sin f ;
@
where O is the angular rate of Earth's rotation; =2 ' is an addition to latitude;
is longitude; Vz , V , and V are components of the velocity of atmospheric motion;
R is the Earth's radius; and f and f are the components of acceleration due to
friction expressed by the friction stress tensor usl :

@u @u @u
f z R sin 1
R 1 u ctg ;
@z @ @

@u @u @u
f z R sin 1 R 1 u ctg ;
@z @ @
Velocity ®eld equations are closed by prescribing zero boundary conditions for
the Earth's surface, that is parametrized by the function z h; and by adding the
equation of the state of humid air p Trd qrV rd , where rd 0.287 Joule/g K
and rV 0.46 Joule/g K are the gas constant of dry and water vapor, and q 3%±
4% is the speci®c humidity. The distribution of temperature T; and function
q; can be described by the respective equations of evolution, and global archive
data can substitute them for tabulated values.
The models of general atmospheric circulation were thoroughly described by
Nicolis and Nicolis (1995). The description of the atmospheric part of the hydro-
logical cycle can be simpli®ed by the equation @WA =@t rQ E P, where WA is
the vertically integrated speci®c air humidity in this column, and E and P are
evapotranspiration and precipitation at the soil level, respectively.
Further simpli®cation of models of the hydrological cycle can be done by
selecting one of the three prevailing wind directions: western, eastern, and meridional.
For such an approximation, data are used on the amplitude of wind speed oscillations
and the number of days related with these directions. If the mass of water vapor in the
air column over area i j is a WA i j , then, for instance, for the eastern orientation of
the atmospheric circulation the water ¯ux between the adjacent cells of the Earth's
surface grid will be wAO 2a=di j , where is the wind speed, and di j is the diameter of
Oi j . Following this scheme, it is easy to re-calculate the moisture supplies at each
point in time, since it is unnecessary to solve the problems of numerical integration of
partial dierential equations. Background information about WA , i j , , and di j is
accumulated in the database from dierent sources. Function WA is calculated by the
balance equation or can be prescribed based on other data. In particular, as tem-
perature T and the partial pressure of water vapor e change, so WA can be estimated
from the relationship WA meh1 T 1 , where h is the height of the eective
atmospheric layer, and m and are the proportion coecients (m 0.8 and 1/
273 when measuring WA in g m 2 and T in C).
4.6.3.2 Simulation of water ¯ows in the World Ocean

The World Ocean clearly occupies ®rst place among all the water reservoirs on Earth.
Its present volume exceeds 50-fold the volume of water in glaciers, which occupies
second place. This comparison is important for understanding the correlation
between the hierarchical steps of water basins and determining their structure in
the model. Within a priori scenarios of anthropogenic activity and possible changes
in the biosphere, the correlation between these steps is important. For instance, 1.6%
of the global supplies of water are accumulated in the Antarctic. By comparing these
supplies with the volume of the Arctic Ocean where the water content is 20% less than
in the Antarctic glacier cover, the inadequacy of any global model of the hydrological
cycle that fails to take the role of the Antarctic into account is obvious (Keeling and
Visbeck, 2001).
The hydrology and sea currents of the Southern Ocean along with the eects of
glacier cover have been described in numerous monographs, and circulation models
of dierent complexity and degree of detailing have been derived to simulate them.
Such models for the World Ocean, on the whole, are based on con®gurations of the
non-penetrating boundaries and topology of straits. Numerous numerical experi-
ments using such models have made it possible to reveal the principal structure of
global oceanic circulation as consisting of a hierarchy of closed ring circulations with
the centers of lifting and descending waters. To describe water circulation in the
Southern Ocean basin, it is necessary to take the Drake Passage into account.
A scheme of the hydrological circulation in the World Ocean, acceptable for simu-
lation, was proposed by Seidov (1987) and Chahine (1992). The model is a system of
equations and boundary conditions that take into account the outline of shores, the
bottom relief, as well as ice formation and melting. However, on a global scale, to
simulate oceanic circulation, a simpli®ed scheme is necessary, one that mainly re¯ects
the role of straits. Such a scheme is shown in Figure 4.13. The quantitative
characteristics of the constituents of this scheme are given in Table 4.11. The ®nal
unit responsible for modeling World Ocean circulation has the following form:
dWOF
OF HOF RF ILF SLF SFL HFO AFI MIF
dt
DPF wAOF EFA OF AF ;
dWOI
OI AFI CPI NPI KI RI wAOI EIA OI AIP MIF ;
dt
dWOP
OP AIP RP wAOP EPA OP IP BPL DPF CPI NPI ;
dt
dWOL
OL RL BPL wAOL ELA OL SFL ILF SLF ;
dt
dWA
EPA wAOP OP EFA wAOF OF EIA wAOI OI
dt
ELA wAOL OL :
Within this large-scale approach to the formation of the MBWB ocean unit, the
dependences of the ¯uxes of water in its dierent phases on environmental param-
eters remain uncertain. Apparently, the mass exchange between reservoirs s and l can
be described by the simplest linear scheme wsl jWOS OS WOL OL j=Tsl , where Tsl
is the time it takes to equalize levels WOS and WOL , and OS and OL are the areas of
Figure 4.13. Elements of the global water balance with the role of the ocean taken into account.
Notations: wAOL , wAOF , wAOI , wAOP precipitation; HFO , HOF Straits of Gibraltar; RF , RI , RL
rivers; EFA , EIA , EPA , ELA evaporation; AFI , AIP the Antarctic Current; MFI the Cape Igolny
Current; CPI the East-Australian Current; PL Bering Strait; ILF Arctic ice; DPF Drake Passage;
IP Antarctic ice; NPI Indonesian seas; SLF , SFL straits.
water basins s and l. For the scheme in Figure 4.13 we have:

AFI maxfVOF VOI =TFI ; 0g; MFI maxfVOI VOF =TIF ; 0g;
AIP maxfVOI VOP =TIP ; 0g; NPI maxfVOP VOI =TPI ; 0g;
CPI maxfVOP VOI =T PI ; 0g; DPF maxfVOP VOF =TPF ; 0g;
SLF maxf0; VOL VOF =TLF g; SFL maxf0; VOF VOL =TFL g;
PL maxf0; VOP VOL =TPL g;
where VOS WOS OS (S F; I; P; L.
To estimate ¯ux KI , we take into account information on the moisture balance in
the region of the Red Sea. According to available estimates, the input of water to the
3
Table 4.11. Quantitative estimates of water ¯uxes in the scheme in Figure 4.7 (10 km 3 yr 1 ).
Flux Estimate Flux Estimate
wAOL 3.6 ILF 0.57
SLF 436 SFL 400
RL 5.14 AF 0.3
HOF 23.97 RF 19.33
wAOF 72.5 EFA 96.6
AFI 6,780.24 MIF 952
DPF 5,771.09 CPI 437
NPI 66.86 IOI 0.765
AIP 6,338.74 EIA 115.4
wAOI 84 RI 5.386
KI 0.005 RP 13.12
EPA 200.4 wAOP 206.7
IP 0.975 ELA 1.7
80.5
Red Sea via the Suez Canal and by precipitation can be disregarded. Not a single river
¯ows into the Red Sea. The main component of ¯ux KI through Bab el Mandeb is
persistent. Hence, we can assume KI maxf0; wAK KMP EKMA KM g, where wAK
and KMP are the level and the area of mainland run-o to the Red Sea, respectively,
and EKMA is evaporation from area KM of the Red Sea. The water expenditure
through the Straits of Gibraltar HFO HOF is determined by the relationship between
the levels of WOF and the Mediterranean Sea. In order not to complicate the structure
of the model, the level of water in the Mediterranean Sea is determined by its
watershed and the dierence between precipitation and evaporation. Since the
intra-annual distribution of water in¯ow into the Atlantic Ocean varies within
20%, we can reliably assume WFO WOF const.
4.6.4 Numerical model of global water balance

4.6.4.1 Modeling the global water cycle
Water is one of the substances most widely spread in nature (Table 4.12). It is present
in various forms in practically all areas of the planet and plays an important role in
Table 4.12. Water in the biosphere.
Reservoir Volume Part of total volume Regeneration time

(10 3 km 3 ) (%)
World Ocean 137,000 97.61 3,100 years
Glaciers 29,000 2.08 16,000 years
Ground water 4,000 0.29 300 years
Fresh lakes 125 0.009 1±100 years
Saline lakes 104 0.008 10±1,000 years
Soil moisture 67 0.005 280 days
Rivers 1.2 0.00009 12±20 days
Atmosphere 14 0.0009 9 days
the energy and mass exchange between continents, oceans, atmosphere, and other,
smaller land territories and water basins. This role in recent years is increasingly
manifesting itself in the complex system of human±society±environment interactions
necessitating creation of scienti®c principles for rational control of water resources.
Human-induced changes in the global water cycle are now globally signi®cant and are
being modi®ed without adequate understanding of how this cycle works. Therefore,
the problem of evaluating the role of water in the global carbon cycle is but a small
part of the general global problem of the interaction between nature and society.
Oceans, polar ice caps, glaciers, lakes, rivers, soils, and the atmosphere contain
between them 1.4±1.5 10 9 km 3 of water. This mass is in constant dynamic inter-
actions with other biospheric components and determines thereby the factors of
environmental variability. The methods of numerical experiments that have been
developed should be used to assess the role of these factors under current conditions
and to show the signi®cance of the water balance in stabilizing the many climatic and
biogeocenotic processes. We have attempted here, by systematizing information
about the water balance of the planet, to create a version of the model of biospheric
water balance (MBWB) capable, within the general approach to modeling the carbon
balance, to take into account the role of water ¯uxes.
An important block of the MBWB is the methods of determination of various
parameters of the water cycle. Such methods are based on the use of surface, satellite,
and airborne measurements. The MBWB used as a global model makes it easier to
understand the role of the oceans and land in the hydrological cycle, to identify the
main factors that control it, as well as to trace the dynamics of its interaction with
plants, soil, and topographic characteristics of the Earth surface. It is based on the
interaction between the elements of the water cycle, and takes natural and anthro-
pogenic factors into account by means of information interfaces with other units of
the global model (Krapivin and Kondratyev, 2002).
Let us consider a block scheme of global water exchange and write respective
equations for it. The basic regularity of global water exchange is the invariability of
water supplies on Earth over time periods of hundreds of years (i.e., we can reliably
write the balance equation WE WS WO , where WE , WS , and WO are water
supplies on Earth, on land and in the oceans, respectively). A compartment of the
atmosphere is related to the respective region of water basin. Such a relationship is
valid
dWE dWS dWO
0
dt dt dt
or dWS =dt dWO =dt. Hence, the trend in changes of water supplies on land is in
direct contrast to the similar trend in the oceans.
With water supply in the atmosphere WA WAO WAS , we obtain
WE WA WS1 WO1 , where WAO and WAS are water supplies in the atmosphere
over the oceans and land, respectively; WS1 WS WAS and WO1 WO WAO .
The balance equation will be:
dWE dWA dWS1 dWO1
0:
dt dt dt dt
As can be seen, the structure of trends in the ratios of water supplies is com-
plicated and to analyze it additional considerations are needed. This complication
becomes considerable as we further subdivide the biosphere.
Within the MBWB, small corrections for the water exchange between the Earth
and space are not taken into account. A model of the global water cycle can be based
on describing the hydrology of comparatively large territories. In this case the basic
unit of such a territory is compartment Oi j of the Earth surface of size D'i by latitude
and Dj by longitude.
The state of the water component of compartment Oi j and its coordinates 'i ; j
can be characterized by the magnitude of an equivalent liquid water column per unit
area. Possible water ¯uxes across the border of Oi j are shown in Figures 4.11 and
4.12. The intensities of these ¯uxes depend on the phase state of water, temperature,
wind speed, and other geophysical and ecological factors. It is dicult to take into
account the ®ne detail of these ¯uxes within the global model because their interac-
tions have been studied inadequately. Therefore, the degree of detailing chosen here is
oriented toward account of the most important components of their states. Water is
considered in liquid, solid, and gas phases. Within compartment Oi j there is only one
state; though in future, once the needed information becomes available, a vector
parameter can be introduced to determine the share of precipitation over Oi j in the
form of snow, granulated snow, pellets of ice, ice rain, rain, drizzle, wet snow, and
others.
The global water balance consists of the mosaic structure of local balances at the
level of Oi j . The proposed description of water ¯uxes enables us to trace their balance
at any level of spatial digitization: region, water basin, continent, ocean, hemisphere,
or biosphere. Clearly, the general balance of evaporation and precipitation at the
level of the biosphere is maintained. In other cases, as the spatial size of the
selected unit of the biosphere decreases, we should expect to observe dierences

between the precipitation amount and evaporation. In such cases water transport
through the atmosphere, river run-o, and sea currents will serve as an equalizer.
Though the quantitative estimates of all these parameters are well known, the
dynamics of the water cycle can only be described using a model. As a ®rst approx-
imation, to assess the role of precipitation in the global CO2 cycle we use only
components WAU and WAS . However, to account for the spatially heterogeneous
distribution of CO2 , the entire biosphere needs to be digitized.
Using the notation in Figures 4.11 and 4.12, the balance equations of the water
cycle at the level of Oi j are written as follows:
dWS t; i; j
wAS wGS wSS wHS wSO wSG wST wSA wSH ;
dt
dWH t; i; j
wSH wOH wHO wHG wHS ;
dt
dWO t; i; j X
wIO t; k; nwHO t; k; nwAO wO wOA wOG wOR wT ;
dt k;n2Ikn
(
dWA t; i; j wV ; for water surface;
wOAA wAOO wSA
dt wST ; for land.
Detailing the right-hand sides of these equations with changing parameters of

the environment will determine the qualitative and quantitative reliability of the
model. In particular, the model can be simpli®ed by approximating the average value
of WO :
( p
2,500 350 t; for 0 t 70,
WO
6,400 3,200 exp t=62:8; for t > 70,
where the average depth of the World Ocean is measured in meters, and the age of
the ocean t is calculated in millions of years. Variations in the ocean volume can
also be approximated by the formula DV DWO AO 59:5DWO 2 , where
AO 361.06 10 6 km 2 .
Let us consider the scheme in Figure 4.14 as the basis for modeling the hydro-
logical regime of a small territory OL , home to the water ecosystem under study. The
territory has a river network, water bodies, and land. According to the hydrological
principle of landscapes, to derive a model to simulate how a hydrological system
functions, it is necessary to select the facies that typi®es the background ¯ora, the
concrete appearance of which is determined by the micro-relief, type and properties
of the soil, surface moistening, depth of ground waters, and other factors. In general,
territory OL is characterized by the presence of m facies, and the water network has n
heterogeneous sites. Bearing this in mind, according to Figure 4.14, the closed system
of balance equations has the form:
Figure 4.14. The block scheme of the sample model of water balance in a small territory.
dWA;i j X
n X
m
i j Ei j Ri j Vk Bk Sk Di j Ll Tl Wl l ;
dt k1 l1
dGk X
m
Sk Yk Vk Bk Sk H k Jk Klk Fkl Vkl Mkl
dt l1
Gk Sk Ck 1 Vk 1 =Dk 1 Ck Vk =Dk ;
dFl X
n Xm
k
l Fkl Vkl Mkl l l Ll Tl Pl l Nl Wl l ;
dt k1 k1
dGi j X
n X
m
i j Ii j Zi j Di j Hk Jk Pl Nl :
dt k1 l1
In these formulas the following notations are assumed: i j , l , and Sk are the
areas of the territory Oi j of the lth facies and the kth compartment of the river
network, km 2 , respectively; Dk is the linear size of the kth compartment of the river
network, km; WA;i;j , Gk , and Fl are, respectively, the levels of water in the atmo-
sphere, in the kth compartment of the river network, and the lth facies on the territory
Oi j ; i j is the level of ground water, m; kl is the share of the run-o of the kth facies
that reaches the territory of the lth facies; the remaining notations are given in the
scheme in Figure 4.14.
Application of the model to other regions is realized via variables E, R, Yi , Gi , I,
Z. Moreover, when analyzing the concrete situation, the con®guration of the water-
way and the level of the water table are taken into account. The needed equations are
written like those above, proceeding from the condition of the water volume balance.
Functionally, all ¯uxes in the scheme in Figure 4.14 can be described according to
the laws of hydrodynamics and with account of available observational information.
The in¯ow Ei j and out¯ow Ri j of moisture can be determined by data from remote
sensing. Between measurements, the information used about wind speed Vi j and
the functions Ei j and Ri j are calculated p by the formulas Ei j EH;i j and
Ri j WA;i j l =l k1 V, where l 2 =H, EH is atmospheric moisture at the
windward border of the region, and k1 is a constant coecient re¯ecting the
contribution of wind to the circulation of precipitation.
Such information on precipitation and run-o is inserted into the data catalogs
of hydrometeorological services. Based on these data, respective model units can be
derived. Assuming that the distribution of precipitation is proportional to relevant
areas, we obtain:
Bk WA;i j k =i j ; Wl WA;i j l =i j :
A model of river run-o should take into account the watershed topography and
the spatial distribution of characteristics of its soil as well as special features of
vegetation covers. Let l gl Kl exp al Xl Cl Al l , where Xl and Al are,
respectively, the vegetation density (m/km 2 ) and the soil layer thickness (m) over
the area l ; gl is the coecient of the relief run-o in the lth facies; kl is the coecient
of water penetration through vegetation and soil covers over area l ; al and Cl are the
coecients of precipitation retained by plants or soil in the lth facies, respectively.
Parameters for this dependence can be determined from ®eld measurements that
establish, for a given type of soil and plants, the connection between precipitation
intensity, the rate of water take-up by the soil, and the water resistance of its
structure. For instance, run-o is equal to precipitation in takyrs.1 Such a rough
approximation can be speci®ed, since radiometric methods make it possible to
classify soil moisture in at least three types: ®rmly bound, loosely bound, and free
water. Bound water is the ®lm of moisture adsorbed by the surface of ground par-
ticles and has a thickness of 6±8 molecular layers. The content of bound water is
estimated at 2%±3% in sands, and 30%±40% in clay and loess. Bound water cannot
be assimilated by plants and does not dissolve salts. In the models considered these
1
A takyr is a ¯at hollow in the desert.
speci®c features are taken into account when determining the respective coecients of
evaporation and transpiration.
Run-o l is distributed between facies, and in the form of return water Klk ¯ows
into the river. In a general form this is re¯ected through the coecients of run-o
!
X
m2
l l l
distribution s s 1 , where m1 is the share of run-o from the lth facies
s1
l
that leaves the region, m2 is the share of run-o from the lth facies that enters the
!
X
n
river. The coecients !lk !lk 1 characterize the run-o distribution from the
k1
lth facies to river compartments and are determined by the landscape relief and the
spatial location of the facies and waterway compartments. Thus, Klk !lk lm2 l .
Evaporation from the soil surface can be described by the formulas of Hitchcock,
Horton, Weissman, and others (Bras, 1990). For instance, the formula by Priestley
and Taylor (1972) for the latent heat of evaporation qE is qE Sq qi =S ,
where qi is soil heat ¯ux, W/m 2 ; q is net radiation ¯ux, W/m 2 ; 0.066 10 3 Pa/K is
a psychometric constant; and S is the slope of the curve of temperature dependence of
saturated moisture pressure (Pa/K),
8
< 1:06; for wet soil;
1:04; for dry soil;
:
> 1:26; at warm air advection over a wet surface.
The Horton formula gives

V 0:362 expf 0:44glV la (mm/da);
where is the wind speed (m/s); lV is the vapor pressure near the water surface; and la
is water vapor elasticity.
The Rower formula is written as
V 0:7711:465 0:0070:44 0:26lV la (mm/da),
where is atmospheric pressure (mmHg).

The diversity of forms to parameterize the dependence of the rate of evaporation
from the soil surface on environmental parameters facilitates adapting the model of
water balance to the information base.
Flux T in Figure 4.14 re¯ects the impact of vegetation cover on the hydrological
regime of a territory. A simple model of transpiration is the following dependence:
T y24 (cm/da);
where y is the speci®c water return of the soil; is the rate at which ground water
rises (cm/hr); and is the daily change in the level of ground waters (cm).
Let us determine the constituents of the block scheme in Figure 4.14 characteriz-
ing the processes of leakage and ®ltration of water from the river. Both leakage and
®ltration depend on the quality of the riverbed and water level. Let

i Ci Si ; for 0 Ci Ci;min ;
Hi
i Ci;min ; for Ci > Ci;min ;
where i is the coecient of water penetration through the riverbed. Filtration Fi
increases as Ci increases between two critical values: Ci;min when there is no ®ltration,
and Ci;max when it is at a maximum; hence
8
< 0;
> for 0 Ci Ci;min ;
Fi;max i Ci Ci;min Si ; for Ci;min < Ci < Ci;max ;
>
:
i Ci;max Ci;min Si ; for Ci Ci;max :
The distribution of water ®ltering from the river between facies depends on the
distance ri j between the ith compartment and the jth facies, as well as on the structure
of the soil and landscape relief. In particular, this dependence can be described by
the function Fi j Fi;max ri j , where ri j is the decreasing function satisfying the
condition
Xm
ri j 1:
j1
Evaporation from the river surface depends on the environmental temperature

and can be described by the formula Vi V i T ! or by the relationship
Vi V 2 , where is a function re¯ecting the impact of the wind; V
is the water vapor pressure at the temperature of the evaporating surface, mb; and 2
is absolute air humidity at a height of 2 m, hPa .
The volume of over¯ow is determined by the binary regime within a maximum
possible water level Ci;max , so that

0; for 0 Ci Ci;max ;
Vi
Ci Ci;max ; for Ci > Ci;max :
The distribution of U i between facies depends on the landscape relief,
characterized by the matrix of relief run-o C kCi j k, and is written as
X
m
Ci j 1; Ci j 0:
j1
As a result, Ui j Ci j U i .
Taking water for agriculture from the ith compartment of waterway is an
X
m
anthropogenic factor, and should be considered as a free parameter M i Mi j .
j1
To take into account any possible heterogeneity in the distribution of M i between
facies, it is necessary to introduce the matrix of the coecients of the distribution of
X m
watering kvi j k (i j 0, i j 1, i 1; . . . ; n; j 1; . . . ; m) such that
Mi j i j M i . j1
The relationship between surface water ¯uxes and ground water strongly depends
on the ¯ux of water in®ltrating downward through the soil layer. This ¯ux, called
in®ltration, accounting only for the vertical heterogeneity of the soil can be described
in a general form by the equation:

@P @ @P
pP Kz P : 4:31
@t @z @z
Bras (1990) gave various versions of solutions to this equation. For practical use the
following solution can be recommended:
f fc f0 fc exp Pl 2 t;
where f Pi P0 P=t 1 ; fc is the asymptotic value of the rate of ®ltration; and f0
is the initial value of the rate of ®ltration.
The processes of in®ltration and evaporation of ground water depend strongly on
the vertical pro®le of the soil layer. The following soil layers can be selected: saturated
and unsaturated. The saturated layer usually covers depths >1 m. The upper
unsaturated layer includes soil moisture around plants' roots, the intermediate level,
and the level of capillary water. Water motion through these layers can be described
by the Darcy (1856) law, and the gravitation term Kz P in Equation (4.31) can be
calculated by the equation:
Kz P 256:32 s 7:28 1:27 1:14
s (cm/da),
3
where s is the volume mass of soil (g cm ).
Thus, any system of equations for the regional water budget that has these
functional descriptions of water ¯uxes in the region under study, at initial values
of Wt0 , Gt0 , Ci t0 , Fj t0 prescribed for time moment t0 , facilitates calculation of
the characteristics of the water regime of the whole region for t t0 . Initial values are
provided by the monitoring system. The regularity of surveys depends on the required
accuracy of prognosis and can be realized by planning the monitoring regime. Based
on how the model is synthesized and the remote-sensing system, the monitoring of
any irrigated agri-ecosystem can in practice be carried out. However, problems do
appear in tallying airborne measurements with the values of geophysical, ecological,
and hydrological parameters. An example of successful solution of such problems
(Vinogradov, 1983) was determination of the dependence between the coecient of
spectral brightness J z 0 z exp W c dW n , where 0 is the coecient
of dry soil brightness, z is the coecient of brightness of soil that has a moisture
content close to the minimum ®eld moisture capacity (when there is no free water in
the soil); , c, d, and n determine the type of soil (; d; n < 1; c > 1; for achromatic
loamy soils we have z 0:09, 0 0.28, 0.01, c 2.3, n 0.9, d 0.0001).
Getting estimates of these is an important problem facing remote sensing of the
environment.
Finally, note that the deterministic approach to modeling the water cycle in zone
OL described here cannot be considered the only one possible. Such an approach gives
only average trends in changes of the water cycle components. Their distribution and
probabilistic prognosis can be obtained only on the basis of dynamic-stochastic
models of the water balance. In modeling the global carbon cycle this approach
facilitates taking into account the sink of atmospheric CO2 over the region due to
leaching.
4.7 CARBON CYCLE AND METHANE
Methane like carbon dioxide is another greenhouse gas. The spectrum of its natural
and anthropogenic sources is wide, and its greenhouse eect exceeds 20 times that of
CO2 though its concentration (1.6 ppm) in the atmosphere is about 200 times less
than that of CO2 (Dementyeva, 2000; Panikov and Dedysh, 2000; Arneth et al., 2002;
EPA, 2001). It occupies second place to carbon dioxide in the greenhouse eect.
Methane also aects ozone content in the stratosphere and plays a key role in
transforming chemically active Cl into less active HCl. Before human interference,
the natural cycle of methane was balanced with respect to climate. By extracting
natural combustible gases consisting of 90%±95% of methane, humankind has
contributed instability and uncertainty to this cycle. On the whole, during the last
200 years anthropogenic contribution to the input of CH4 to the atmosphere has
doubled. The situation has now arisen when the dierence between methane con-
centrations at the poles has reached 150 ppb. Most authors estimate the level of the
global emission of methane into the atmosphere at 535 10 6 tCH4 yr 1 , of which
375 10 6 tCH4 yr 1 is of anthropogenic origin (50 10 6 tCH4 yr 1 from rice paddies).
The anthropogenic input of methane is expected to grow within the next 20±30 years,
though in some developed regions, measures are being taken to reduce anthropogenic
emissions of methane into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the concentration of
methane in the present atmosphere is increasing seven times faster than the growth
of CO2 concentration, so that its amount is increasing annually by 2%; that is, by
2020 the amount of methane in the atmosphere can double compared with 2000,
which, from numerous estimates, will lead to a global warming of 0.2 C±0.4 C. As in
the case of CO2 , these estimates will remain rather doubtful and contradictory until a
global model like the one mentioned above is synthesized. However, at the level of
current knowledge, only the initial steps can be taken to model the features of the
global cycle of CH4 .
The sources of methane include oil, sedimentary and ejected (volcanic) rocks,
bottom sediments of lakes, seas, oceans, and other objects of the hydrosphere, as well
as soil, peatbogs, rice paddies, and many more. Principal among which are
. natural gas and oil extracting and re®ning systems;

. vital functions of animals;
. land®lls of solid waste;
. coal mining;
. processing of stockbreeding waste;
. sewage processing;
. anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in rice paddies;
. fossil fuel burning;
Sec. 4.7] 4.7 Carbon cycle and methane 281
. burning of agricultural waste, biomass, rubbish, and savannah ®res; and

. various industrial processes.
The basic reaction of methane formation due to anaerobic fermentation or

mineralization of organic matter is as follows:
C6 H12 O6 ! 3CO2 3CH4 :
Sinks for tropospheric methane are:
. reaction with hydroxyl radical (90%);

. transport to the stratosphere (5%); and
. oxidation in dry soil (5%).
Ways of methane transformation, as shown in Table 4.13, include numerous

processes that are 70%±80% of biogenic origin mostly aected by humans (Girnis et
al., 2003). Of course, the signi®cance of these processes varies depending on many
natural and anthropogenic parameters. Relationships between the individual
Table 4.13. Sources of the input of CH4 into the terrestrial atmosphere.
Source of CH4 Area of the source Rate of CH4 Average rate of CH4
formation formation
(10 6 km 2 ) (g m 2 yr 1 ) (10 6 t/yr)
Rice paddies 1.35 206 280
Marshes 2.6 50±100 130±260
Freshwater lakes 2.5 50±100 1.25±25
Arid soils 30 0.44 10
Woodland 44 0.01±0.09 0.4
Tundra 8 10 0.8±8
Oceans 361 0.012 4±6.7
Marginal shelves 1.4 5-10 0.07±1.4
Animals 101±220
Termites 150
Fossil fuels 100
Slag heaps 20±40
Sewage 30±40
elements correlation the cycles of CO2 , CH4 , and other chemicals vary, too. At any
rate, it is clear that depending on the strategy adopted for the nature±society system,
in due course the composition of the terrestrial atmosphere will change substantially.
Suce it to say that the burning of just 1 m 3 of methane extracts from the atmosphere
2 m 3 O2 . From open slag heaps and municipal and industrial sewage, the atmosphere
receives annually about 2% of anthropogenic methane (270±460 10 6 tC). These
integral estimates do not permit calculation of the actual distribution of CH4 ¯ux in
the atmosphere. A certain contribution detailing the spatial distribution of the
sources of methane was made at the Second International Conference on the Problems
of Methane held in Novosibirsk in 2000. The proceedings of this conference contain
concrete data on the sources of methane in many regions of the globe. For instance,
according to Byakola (2000), within the framework of the international UNEP/GDP
project, an inventory of the sources and sinks of CO2 and CH4 was made for Uganda
(236 10 3 km 2 ). In Uganda, the basic anthropogenic sources of methane are agricul-
ture, municipal sewage, and biomass burning. In 1990, stockbreeding and rice pad-
dies in Uganda contributed to the atmosphere 205.45 10 3 t and 23.45 10 3 tCH4 ,
respectively. Agricultural waste burning added 3.55 10 3 tCH4 .
Naturally, Uganda needs to reduce GHG emissions, but the threshold at which
such emissions must not be exceeded is unknown. Of course, stockbreeding and rice
production in Uganda will develop in future, increasing thereby the volumes of CH4
emitted to the atmosphere. Hence, a balanced correlation should be sought between
the economy of the country and the state of the environment. This problem can be
solved with the new technologies of nature use (Krapivin and Kondratyev, 2002).
In particular, one of the ways to reduce CH4 emissions is secondary utilization of
organic waste (e.g., in paper production). In Uganda, up to 16% of urban waste is
used in paper production.
Gas transport systems are one of the powerful anthropogenic sources of CH4 .
The work of Coconea (2000) contains information about methane emissions from
pipelines in Romania, the country that signed the Lisbon Protocol in 1994 and now
supports the Kyoto Protocol. Romania was the ®rst country in Europe to install a
pipeline to transport natural gas; this took place in 1917 and the pipeline was 50 km
long. At present, natural gas constitutes 36% of the energy resources of the country,
the share of oil and coal constituting 32.6% and 15.2%, respectively. Therefore, the
problem of anthropogenic input of CH4 from the territory of Romania to the atmo-
sphere is urgent. Here, like Uganda, saving technologies play an important role,
reducing by 38.9% the leakage of methane from pipelines during the last 20 years,
constituting 55.35% in 1994 with respect to the leakage in 1987. On the whole, both
extraction and distribution of coal, oil, and gas in Romania are responsible for 56%
of the total amount of CH4 emitted from this territory. Agriculture takes second
place with 29%.
One of the signi®cant sources of CH4 is Russia, which contributes to the atmo-
sphere about 47 10 6 tCH4 yr 1 , and this ¯ux is expected to reach 78 10 6 tCH4 yr 1
by 2025. This increase will be caused by the developing infrastructure of the gas, oil,
and coal industry. On global scales, these trends will be practically observed in all
countries. In Table 4.14 the contribution of the coal industry to CH4 production is
Table 4.14. Emissions of methane by the coal industry in various countries. From Gale and
Freund (2000), IEA (2007a, b).
Country Coal reserves Coal production CH4 emissions Speci®c rate of

CH4 emision
(Gt) (Gt of oil (10 6 t/yr) (kgCH4 /t coal)
equivalent/yr)
Australia 78,500 203.1 0.8 3.5
U.K. 220 11.3 0.5 7.4
Germany 6,739 50.3 1.0 3.6
India 93,445 209.7 0.4 1.5
China 114,500 1212.3 7.7 6.7
Poland 14,000 67.0 0.6 3.0
Russia 157,010 144.5 4.5 8.3
U.S.A. 246,643 595.1 4.3 5.0
Czechoslovakia 5,552 23.7 0.3 3.4
South Africa 48,750 144.8 1.0 0.5
Total world 909,064 3079.7 21.7 4.9
estimated for various global regions. These estimates are determined by technologies
used in the coal industry. On average, the contributions of various sources to the coal
industry itself constitute 70% underground ventilation in coalmines, 20% under-
ground drainage, 5% surface loading and unloading operations, 4% opencast mining
of deposits, and 1% derelict mines.
The global cycle of methane, just like the other cycles, has not been studied
suciently well, and therefore its modeling faces a lot of unsolved problems. CH4
¯uxes from waterlogged territories have been studied best. These ¯uxes constitute
about 20% of the total input of methane to the atmosphere from all sources (Tables
4.14 and 4.15). Note that almost 80% of the sources of methane are biological in
nature, but anthropogenic interference with its natural cycle is also possible through
violation of various biospheric processes. In particular, in waterlogged territories,
methane forms only due to biological processes. The hydrospheric sources of
methane can be presented as a multi-layer model (Figures 4.15 and 4.16). This scheme
describes the vertical structures of most water bodies. Methane forms in bottom
deposits as a byproduct of bacteria, and in the zone with oxygen, methane is partially
oxidized giving o carbon dioxide CH4 2O2 ! CO2 2H2 O E. The bacteria that
take part in methane oxidation use released energy E for organic matter synthesis.
The remaining methane gets into the atmosphere and, in contrast to CO2 , practically
Table 4.15. Methane emissions from dierent sources recalculated for carbon equivalent.
From EPA (2001). Estimates of methane ¯uxes are given in 10 6 tC per year.
Anthropogenic source of methane 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Output of natural gas and oil 181.1 177.0 185.2 186.9 190.2
Animal vital functions 157.4 143.4 144.0 149.5 150.8
Land®ll sites 136.9 131.4 133.9 134.4 135.5
Coal mining 82.8 62.6 59.0 59.3 59.0
Processing of stockbreeding waste 27.9 26.8 28.1 29.2 29.8
Sewage processing 10.1 9.8 9.8 10.4 10.4
Other sources connected with agriculture 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.2
Industrial and municipal sectors 15.0 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.8
Figure 4.15. Block diagram for formation and transport of methane in waterlogged country.
Notation: F 1CH4 is the methane ¯ux across the atmosphere/water body interface; F 2CH4 is the
oxidation of methane in aerobic zones; FCH4 is the intensity of the methane source; M is methane
concentration.
Figure 4.16. Reserves and ¯uxes of methane in the atmosphere±ocean±land system. From Fung
et al. (1991). Notation: Tg 10 12 g.
never returns to the water medium. This is somehow connected with the fact that CH4
solubility in water is almost 40 times lower than that of CO2 . The lifetime H of
methane in the atmosphere is estimated at about 5 years. Its extraction from the
atmosphere takes place due to the participation of methane in photochemical
reactions, resulting in methane oxidation ®rst to CO, and then to CO2 . The cycle
CO±OH±CP4 plays an important role in the methane cycle:
OH CH4 ! CH3 H2 O;
OH CO ! CO2 H:
Participating OH radicals form in the atmosphere during water vapor photolysis. As a

result, the simplest diagram of methane oxidation in the atmosphere is the following:
OH
CH4 ! CO ! CO2
Human interference with the processes described by this diagram breaks the
natural stability of the balance CH4 /CO/CO2 . In particular, the reclaiming of
marshes is one such destabilizing factor. For instance, the drainage of 20% of
marshes leads to a natural reduction of CH4 emissions from the marshes by 20%,
and on the whole, the amount of methane is reduced by 4%, which practically does
not in¯uence climate, but causes changes in the biogeochemical cycles of ozone and
carbon dioxide with unpredicted consequences. These estimates are important to
reach a ®nal conclusion about the level of the overall greenhouse eect. However,
solution of this problem is connected with many factors, disregarding which will lead
to serious errors. For instance, the CH4 ¯ux at the atmosphere±marsh border
depends on the vertical pro®le of the temperature in the marsh body. In the simplest
case, if we denote as TW z; t the temperature at time moment t at depth z and write
the equation of heat conductivity as
@TW z; t @ 2 TW z; t

a2 ; 4:32
@t @z 2
where a 2 Kc 1 1 , K is the coecient of heat conductivity, c is speci®c heat

capacity, and is the medium density, then estimation of ¯ux F 1CH4 as a time function
becomes dependent on the multitude of poorly assessed characteristics of the
environment.
Let the marsh surface temperature vary cyclically with frequency ! and
amplitude A, decreasing with depth TW 0; t Az cos!t, where
r
!
Az A0 exp z :
2a
The solution to Equation (4.32) enables us to trace temperature variations

TW z; t and suggests the conclusion that in this case these variations weakly depend
on TW 0; t. Even if TW 0; t increases by 2 C, then according to (4.32), the amplitude
of temperature changes with depth will rapidly decrease to 0.97 C, 0.33 C, and
0.01 C at depths 40 cm, 2 m, and 3 m, respectively. Hence, with a 2 C increase in
the average global atmospheric temperature, ¯ux F 1CH4 will increase by no more than
1.4%.
Comparing the global signi®cance of the CO2 and CH4 cycles in the atmosphere±
marsh system, note that the CO2 cycle promotes climatic stabilization, whereas the
CH4 cycle intensi®es climate change. With climate warming, marshes assimilate
some CO2 from the atmosphere and reduce thereby the greenhouse eect. In
contrast, when the climate warms due to increasing F 1CH4 , the greenhouse eect
intensi®es.
The western Siberian region of Russia is characterized by numerous intensive
natural and anthropogenic sources of methane formation. These are marshes, tundra,
permafrost, oil and gas deposits. In this region, ¯ux F 1CH4 varies widely both during
the year and shorter time periods. From measurements carried out by Jagovkina et al.
(2000) on the Yamal coastline in June 1996, the CH4 concentration in the atmosphere
at a height of 2 m varied from 1.83 ppmv on June 18 to 1.98 ppmv on June 23, with an
average daily variance of 0.032 ppmv.
The peatbogs of Siberia are quite special in the global cycle of methane.
They play a unique role in the biogeochemical cycles of methane and carbon dioxide.
On the one hand, they are a non-anthropogenic source of CH4 and CO2 , but on the
other hand, they are intensive assimilators of carbon from the atmosphere and extract
it from the natural cycle for a long time. The marshes of west Siberia, for instance,
contain 20%±30% of global carbon supplies. The intensity of CH4 emissions from
the marshes is, on average, almost 2,000 times weaker than that of CO2 . Between
35% and 50% of all methane emitted from Russia falls on marshes. West Siberian
marshes emit to the atmosphere no more than 1.7 10 6 tCH4 yr 1 , which does not
exceed 1% of the global CH4 ¯ux. The spatial heterogeneity of ¯ux F 1CH4 is high,
which is determined by dierent characteristics of the marsh ecosystems. In
particular, the upper oligotrophic coniferous±shrubby sphagnum swamps emit
0.9 mgC m 2 hr 1 ±10 mgC m 2 hr 1 (Dementjeva, 2000). This estimate is rather
approximate, since the scattering of such estimates by many authors constitutes
hundreds of percent. For instance, a traditional drained sphagnum swamp can emit
142 gC m 2 hr 1 ±204 gC m 2 hr 1 , and rush±sphagnum bogs 83.5 mgC m 2 hr 1 ±
309 mgC m 2 hr 1 .
The main mechanism for the formation of methane in a marsh is connected with
the functioning of special groups of micro-organisms. Some methane due to diusion
is emitted to the atmosphere, but most remains in the peat layer and is gradually
emitted to the atmosphere.
By remaking nature, humankind interferes with the natural biogeochemical
balance of greenhouse gases practically everywhere in the world. One of the aspects
of this remaking is the reduction in the areas of marshland and their transformation
into agricultural ®elds. Diverse human agricultural activities add to the atmosphere
20% of all the anthropogenic ¯ux of greenhouse gases. For instance, in the U.S.A.
this is 30%. Stockbreeding contributes considerably to this ¯ux. In California and
Wisconsin each hectare of pasture emits annually 502 kgCH4 (or 10,511 kgCO2 ) and
134 kgCH4 (or 2,814 kgCO2 ), respectively. In New Zealand such emissions of CH4
are estimated at 291 kgCH4 (or 6,110 kgCO2 ) (Johnson and Ulyatt, 2000).
Among the Kyoto Protocol signatories, the U.K. occupies ninth place by the
volume of reduced emissions of greenhouse gases. The decreasing trend of methane
emissions is part of the general reduction of emissions of six greenhouse gases (CO2 ,
CH4 , N2 O, hydro¯uorocarbons, per¯uorocarbons, sulfur hexa¯uoride) from 1990. In
2000 greenhouse emissions decreased by 15% compared with 1990. By 2010, CH4
emissions will constitute 20,134 t yr 1 . This reduction will be reached mainly due to
new technologies in the processing of waste and in the coal industry. On the whole, in
the U.K., according to the developed scenario, emissions of methane by 2010 will
decrease by 14% in agriculture, by 82% in the coal industry, by 29% in the oil and gas
industry, and by 73% in waste processing. The possibility of realization of this
scenario is con®rmed by the CH4 decreasing trend in 1998 compared with 1990.
For instance, during this period, emissions of methane in the coal industry decreased
by 64%, and in waste processing by 29%. In 1990, the share of waste processing in the
U.K. constituted 32% of all CH4 emissions, only 3% of which were connected with
sewage processing.
In agriculture, emissions of CH4 in the U.K. constituted 1,037 10 3 t in 1990 and
998 10 3 t in 1998. The scenario of reduction of ¯ux F 1CH4 from the U.K. due to
improved technologies in agriculture foresees emissions of 902±983 10 3 tCH4 in
2010. CH4 emissions from the burning the agricultural wastes are expected to be
zero and, in stockbreeding, emissions of methane are expected to reduce by 8%
compared with 1990.
The coal industry in the U.K. was responsible for emissions of methane in 1990
of 819 10 3 t with the main contribution to this ¯ux made by underground opera-
tions. This constituted 24% of the whole ¯ux of methane from the U.K. In 1998,
¯ux F 1CH4 decreased to 264 10 3 t and by 2010 it should decrease to 218 10 3 t.
A similar decreasing trend in methane emissions from the U.K. is expected in the
oil and gas industry, too. According to the scenario, the contribution of these sectors
as a result of energy production to ¯ux F 1CH4 will decrease from 540 10 3 t in 1990 to
349±464 10 3 t in 2010 (Meadows, 2000).
According to Bazhin (2000), ¯ux F 1CH4 in every water basin that has a vertical
stratiform structure forms in an active layer beneath the water surface. Practically all
water geosystems have such a structure. The layer where methane forms has two
areas. In the bottom area located at depth h, methane takes the form of bubbles.
Above this layer, due to diusion, the concentration of methane decreases, and
bubbles disappear. Let us denote as DCH4 z the coecient of methane diusion
at depth z, then the stationary behavior of the whole system shown in Figure 4.15 is
described by the equation:

d d
D z Mz FCH4 z F 1CH4 F 2CH4 0:
dz CH4 dz
Model calculations and ®eld measurements carried out by Bazhin (2000) show,
for instance, that in rice paddies hb 1.3 m, FCH4 1.3±1.7 10 12 mol cm 3 s 1 .
According to Khalil et al. (2000), rice paddies play a signi®cant role in the gas balance
of the atmosphere due to emissions of CH4 , CO, N2 O, H2 , and CHCl3 . For instance,
Chinese rice paddies deliver these gases to the atmosphere at the following rates (mg/
m 2 hr): CH4 900±50,000; CO 80±100; H2 5±30; N2 O 50±1,000; CHCl 1±8. The wide
scatter of these estimates is explained by the highly unstable ¯uxes of these gases due
advances in rice-growing technology. For instance, the use of sulfates on rice paddies
increases emissions of methane by 12.0%±58.9% subject to other characteristics of
these paddies (Liping et al., 2000).
Thus, estimation of ¯ux F 1CH4 as a function of a given territory with account of
the natural and anthropogenic processes taking place there requires ®rst of all a
detailed inventory of methane sources as well as natural and technogenic systems
functioning on this territory. Examples of such an inventory as the one given above
serve as the basis for development of studies in this direction.
The dynamics of the CH4 content HA in the atmosphere can be parameterized by

a simple balance relationship:
@HA @HA @HA HA t; ';
V' V F 1CH4 t; '; ; X ;
@t @' @ H
where X is the identi®er of the type of natural or technogenic system.
On the whole, the ¯uxes of methane in the environment are rather diverse. The
scheme in Figure 4.15 and data in Figure 4.16 re¯ect, to some extent, this diversity.
5
Monitoring the cycles of chemical substances
in the environment
5.1 OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS FOR BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
Organization of the monitoring of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere has been

aimed at recording the rate of their increase and evaluating the power of their sources
and sinks, which will make it possible to determine more accurately a strategy of
controlling possible climate change due to the impact of GHGs on the Earth's
radiation balance. To achieve this goal, the CCGG group was organized at NOAA
in 1992. The task of this group was to carry out ground and aircraft measurements
of the GHG content in the atmosphere. In September 2005, in Boulder (Colorado)
the 13th Meeting of Experts was held on CO2 concentration and related methods
of measurement, at which results of the CCGG group's work were summarized.
A multi-branched information network created in the U.S.A. assesses the content
in the atmosphere of CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, CO, H2 , and SF6 (CheÂdin et al., 2002;
Krapivin and Potapov, 2006). Measurements gathered by this network are used to
identify long-range transport, estimate seasonal changes, and calculate the spatial
distribution of gases that regulate the carbon cycle. To accomplish the program of
measurements, a network of specialized towers (>400 m) was equipped with instru-
ments to measure the speed and direction of wind, temperature, and relative air
humidity. Since October 1994, these towers carried a four-channel gas chromato-
graph (GC) capable of measuring the products of burning CO, CH4 , H2 , and other
gases of anthropogenic origin (CFCs, methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride,
chloroform, sulfur hexa¯uoride, perchloroethylene).
Reliable assessment of the constituent elements of the global GHG cycle,
especially CO2 , is impossible without organizing observations of vegetation cover.
In this connection, the Working Meeting held in March 1995, in Italy, and dedicated
to developing a strategy for long-term study of CO2 and water balance in land
ecosystems, recommended carrying out the European project EuroFlux and
getting American experts to participate who had experience in the parallel project
292 Monitoring the cycles of chemical substances in the environment [Ch. 5
AmeriFlux. As a matter of fact, over North and South America 25 ecosystems have
been recorded, including forests, meadows, tundra, cropland, and pastures. By con-
sidering their distribution, it should be possible to assess the gas, energy, and water
exchanges in the atmosphere±land biosphere system. Satellite measurements using
AVHRR data should give information about changes in land cover. Information
about the global productivity of ocean ecosystems can be obtained from measure-
ments using MODIS.
Most satellites provide daily images of vegetation cover except of course on
cloudy days. Despite the seemingly high accuracy, daily averaged data cannot re¯ect
the actual variability of CO2 ¯uxes at the atmosphere±vegetation boundary, since this
can happen in just a matter of hours. Therefore, Sims et al. (2005) proposed an
algorithm to get the data of satellite monitoring of CO2 ¯uxes to agree with various
periods of averaging. This algorithm is based on calculating CO2 ¯uxes using ratios
between photosynthesis and photosynthetically active radiation in the form of a
model of the eciency of light assimilation by plants.
In the U.S.A., the USGCRP agency was set up to collect data on the long-term
trends of environmental systems and to record them for subsequent studies in an
attempt to evaluate global changes. As a result, the spaceborne system NPOESS was
created and the strategic plan IGOS was developed which, together with subject-
oriented systems GCOS, GTOS, and GOOS, can monitor practically all ecosystems
over the globe, and deliver data not only for estimation of the components of the
global carbon cycle but also for broader investigations using a GMNSS. The general-
ized characteristics of some systems and programs of environmental monitoring are
given in Tables 5.1 through 5.4.
Among ecient means of observing the components of biogeochemical cycles
components we should point out the GOME and SCIAMACHY spectrometers
which cover a broad spectral band, and therefore can measure the characteristics
of O3 , BrO, OClO, ClO, SO2 , H2 CO, NO, NO2 , NO3 , CO, CO2 , CH4 , H2 O, N2 O,
aerosols, radiation, and the height of clouds and their upper layer. SCIAMACHY
was created to broaden global knowledge, get a deeper understanding of the chem-
istry and physics of the atmosphere (troposphere, stratosphere, and hemisphere),
and forecast potential changes in natural phenomena caused by anthropogenic
interference. It is primarily directed at collecting data on such natural phenomena
and processes as
. stratospheric ozone (behavior of ozone holes and ozone in mid-latitudes);

. pollution of the troposphere as a result of industrial activity and biomass
burning;
. exchange processes at the troposphere±stratosphere boundary;
. volcanic eruptions, and regional and global phenomena connected with solar
activity.
The spectral interval of SCIAMACHY ranges from the UV to near-IR (240 nm±
2,380 nm). This spectrometer provides information about the composition, dynamics,
and radiation balance of the atmosphere, making it possible to measure MGCs in the
Sec. 5.1] 5.1 Observational systems for biogeochemical cycles 293
Table 5.1. Some systems for environmental observation and their equipment.
System Characteristic of the system
GEOSS Global system incorporating all Earth-observing systems. It

combines basic spaceborne systems of observations of the
atmosphere, hydrosphere, and land.
ADEOS An improved, satellite Earth-observing system equipped with

modernized radiometer of the visible and near-IR intervals
(AVNIR), ocean color and temperature scanner (OCTS), and
radiometer POLDER to carry out global systematic measurements
of polarization and spectral characteristics of solar radiation
re¯ected by the Earth±atmosphere system. The satellite ADEOS-2/
Midori-2 was launched on December 14, 2002 by the Japan Space
Agency and is an ideal means of global monitoring.
ESA ERS-1, 2 European satellites for remote sounding of the environment used
under the ESA program, equipped with spectrometers to measure
the characteristics of aerosols, ozone, NO2 , SO2 , and other GHGs.
GOME-type instruments record re¯ected solar light in the UV,
visible, and near-IR intervals (Chance, 2005).
EOS The Earth-observing system including Terra, Aqua, Aura, AM-1,

and other satellites. It is equipped with sensors to record data on
clouds and ERB, altimeter, acoustic atmospheric lidar, laser wind
gauge, and gives information about volcanic eruptions.
UARS Satellite launched by NASA in 1991 to study the upper atmosphere.
MOS Satellites of the Japan National Space Agency to observe the seas,
equipped with radiometers of visible and IR intervals and scanning
microwave radiometer.
ENVISAT Orbital polar ESA satellite to study the atmosphere, oceans, land,
and ice, launched on March 1, 2002 and equipped with the
spectrometer SCIAMACHY. It has ten measuring systems to
monitor global warming, ozone holes, and to detect zones of
deserti®cation.
ERBS NASA satellite to observe the ERB.
GMS Geostationary meteorological satellite.
GOES Geostationary satellite to monitor the environment.
LandSat Series of NASA satellites. The ®rst was launched in April 1972.
The most improved satellite LandSat-7 was launched in April 1999
in a 750 km orbit. It has eight spectral intervals with spatial
resolutions 15 km, 30 km, and 60 km with a 185 km swathwidth.
(continued)
Table 5.1 (cont.)
System Characteristic of the system
JERS Satellite of Japan Space Agency to study the Earth's natural

resources.
GMS-1 Meteorological satellite launched on August 28, 2002, designed for

cloud cover mapping and ERB estimation.
METSAT-1 Meteorological satellite launched on September 12, 2002, equipped

with a scanning radiometer that has a resolution of 2 2 km to
measure clouds, temperature, and water content in the atmosphere.
TAO/TRITON Buoys anchored in the tropical Paci®c with instruments to measure

the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean.
Aqua (NASA-EOS) Spaceborne observatory launched on May 4, 2002 by NASA to

study components of the global hydrological process, equipped
with the six sensors characterized in Table 5.3.
troposphere and stratosphere, as well as aerosols. The GOME spectrometer has four
channels: 240 nm±295 nm, 290 nm±405 nm, 405 nm±605 nm, and 590 nm±790 nm. The
modi®ed GOME-2 consists of two spectrometers, one recording the components of
light re¯ected from the Earth's atmosphere toward the satellite within the band
240 nm±790 nm with a resolution of 0.24 nm±0.53 nm, the other providing polariza-
tion measurements with a resolution of 2.8 nm at 312 nm and 40 nm at 790 nm.
Many national programs on environmental studies are aimed at studying and
understanding the causes of the regional changes observed in land cover, water basins
and ground water quality, and in the atmosphere. After all, many changes take place
at a regional level without any anthropogenic interference. This is of special concern
in regions with increasing deserti®cation. For instance, the U.S. National Council for
Science and the Environment (NCSE) specializes in programs that foster collabora-
tion between diverse institutions, communities, and individuals. NCSE organizes an
annual National Conference on Science, Policy, and the Environment. NCSE pro-
vides information on the causes, consequences, and location of deserti®cation. The
Asian Conference on Remote Sensing (ACRS) proposed eorts be made to consolidate
the national programs of Asian countries on studies of the environment. Japan plays
an important role in this. In America and Europe, these problems are being looked at
at a higher organizational level. For instance, in Europe, a consortium has set up
GEMS which includes
. more than a dozen regional centers for atmospheric monitoring;

. ten leading research laboratories dealing with the study and modeling of
atmospheric chemistry;
. two leading European laboratories ECMWF and EU JRC to provide weather
forecasts and to study global processes.
Table 5.2. Some programs to study the environment.

Program Characteristic of the program
AAOE Airborne experiment to study the ozone layer in the Antarctic.
ACC Program to study anthropogenic climate change.
ASHOE Airborne experiment to study the ozone layer in the Southern Hemisphere.
BIBEX Experiment to study the process of biomass burning.
CEPEX Experiment to study the central equatorial sectors of the Paci®c Ocean.
CLIVAR Program of studies of the variability and predictability of climate with

anthropogenic factors and interactions in the ocean±atmosphere±land system
taken into account.
WOCE Experimental studies of World Ocean circulation.

WCRP Study of the global climate system.
UNEP U.N. program to study the environment.
STIB Study of interactions in the stratosphere±troposphere±biosphere system.
STEP International program to study solar energy ¯uxes in land ecosystems.
GOFS Program to study global ¯uxes in the World Ocean.
GORC Study of the global carbon cycle in the World Ocean.
IHP UNESCO program to study hydrological processes.
TOGA Experimental program to study the global atmosphere and tropical zones of
the World Ocean.
TEMIS Part of the general ESA DUP program aimed at delivery of information
about the long-range transport of aerosols, O3 , NO2 , and SO2 .
The European project GEMS foresees creating a system for global satellite
monitoring of atmospheric chemistry aimed at monitoring European territory.
The major executors of the project are two leading European laboratories ECMWF
and EU JRC, with their rich experience in environmental diagnostics. The main goal
of the project is to monitor greenhouse gases and other chemically active gases and
aerosols covering the troposphere and stratosphere, considerating processes at both
the regional and global scale. The main goals of the project are
. Global retrospective analysis of the dynamics and composition of the

atmosphere, which also takes speci®c compositions of the troposphere and
stratosphere into account.
. Short-range (1±3 day) and medium-range (3±7 day) forecasts of atmospheric air
quality to indicate zones potentially dangerous for human health.
Table 5.3. Instrumental equipment carried by the space observatory Aqua. From Parkinson
(2003).
Measuring system Characteristics of the measuring system
Atmospheric Infrared It has 2,382 high-resolution channels, 2,378 channels

Sounder (AIRS) measuring IR radiation in the range 3.7 mm to 15.4 mm, other
channels cover visible and near-IR regions (0.4 mm±0.94 mm).
Advanced Microwave It is a 15-channel gauge to measure upper atmosphere

Sounding Unit (AMSU) temperature, radiation in the range 50 GHz to 60 GHz and at
frequencies 23.8 GHz, 34.4 GHz, and 89 GHz, water vapor,
and precipitation. Spatial resolution of 40 km±45 km.
Humidity Sounder HSB is a four-channel microwave device measuring humidity

for Brazil (HSB) (183.31 GHz) and radiation (150 GHz). Horizontal resolution
of 13.5 km.
Clouds and the CERES is a broadband three-channel scanning radiometer.

Earth's Radiant Energy One channel measures re¯ected solar radiation in the range
System (CERES) 0.3 mm±5.0 mm. Two other channels (0.3 mm±100 mm and
8 mm±12 mm) measure re¯ected and emitted radiant energy at
the top of the atmosphere.
Moderate Resolution MODIS is a 36-channel scanning radiometer in the visible

Imaging Spectro- and IR ranges (0.4 mm±14.5 mm), aimed at obtaining
radiometer (MODIS) biological and physical information about the
atmosphere±land system.
Advanced Microwave AMSR-E is a 12-channel scanning passive radiometer to

Scanning Radiometer for record land cover radiation at frequencies 6.9 GHz, 10.7 GHz,
EOS (AMSR-E) 18.7 GHz, 23.8 GHz, 36.5 GHz, and 89.0 GHz with regard to
the horizontal and vertical polarization of the signal. The
antenna's diameter is 1.6 m, scanning period is 1.5 s.
. Development of models and algorithms from the combined use of satellite and in
situ measurements to prepare basic information to make forecasts.
. Creation of an automated system to assess and predict the composition and
dynamics of the atmosphere at global and regional (50 km) scales, and giving
3-D distributions of its characteristics at 60 levels in the troposphere and
stratosphere (up to 65 km), including estimates of the key elements:
(1) greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, SF6 , radon);
(2) chemically active gases (O3 , NO2 , SO2 , CO, formaldehyde, and a gradually
widening set of other elements); and
(3) aerosols (up to 30 parameters).
. Development of methods to forecast ``chemical weather'' and to assess the air
quality over Europe, which also takes the impact of global climate change into
account.
Table 5.4. The GOOS subsystems of obtaining data on some parameters of the World Ocean
from spaceborne monitoring. From IGOS (2001, 2004).
Parameter to be measured Satellite systems measuring the parameter
Ocean surface level TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS-2, ENVISAT. ENVISAT is

equipped with synthetic aperture radar ASAR, altimeter
RA- 2, microwave radiometer MWR, interferometer MIPAS,
system of positioning DORIS, and system to record ozone
layer characteristics GOMOS.
Ocean surface temperature AVHRR, ATSR-2/ERS-2, AATSR/ENVISAT, MODIS/

EOS-Terra/Aqua, AMSR-E/EOS-Aqua, OCTS/ADEOS.
Spaceborne system EOS/Terra is equipped with radiometer
ASTER to measure thermal radiation and its re¯ection from
the ocean surface, spectrometers MODIS and MISRC, as
well as MOPITT and CERES instruments to record
pollutant and energy ¯uxes, respectively.
Wind ®eld characteristics Seawinds/QuickSCAT, ERS-2, Seawinds/ADEOS-2, SSM/I.

Spaceborne system ERS-2 is equipped with scatterometer
WS, synthetic aperture radar SAR, microwave radiometer
MWR, altimeter RA, scanning radiometer ATSR, and the
system GOME to measure ozone.
Ocean surface layer salinity SMOS (planned for launch in the future), an ESA satellite to
observe soil moisture and ocean salinity, equipped with
microwave radiometer MIRAS.
Sea ice SSM/I, ERS-2, ASARE/ENVISAT, MODIS/EOS-Terra/

Aqua. Data of SSM/I can be used to study wind speed
trends at a height of 10 m, water vapor, cloud water
content, and rain rate, and to assess the state and
movement of ice.
Ocean coloration SeaWIFS, MODIS/EOA-Aqua, MERIS/ENVISAT,

OCTS/ADEOS.
Precipitation TRMM, SSM/I. The TRMM system is equipped with radar

PR to measure precipitation at a frequency 13.8 GHz with
horizontal resolution 5 km and vertical resolution 250 m,
scanner VIRS (0.63 mm, 1.61 mm, 3.75 mm, 10.8 mm, and
12 mm with spatial resolution of 2.5 km, microwave image
recorder TMI (10.7 GHz, 19.3 GHz, 21.3 GHz, 37 GHz,
85.5 GHz), and solar light recorder LIS.
Cloud cover Meteosat, the ESA geostationary satellite.
Aerosols ENVISAT, POLDER-2/ADEOS-2. ENVISAT is the

European satellite equipped with ten optical and radiometric
sensors including radiometer MERIS for continuous
monitoring of land, oceans, and the atmosphere.
. Development of algorithms to assess the sources and sinks of MGCs and aerosols
by considering their intra-continental transport.
. Preparing key information for analysis of the ful®llment of the Kyoto and
Montreal Protocols and the U.N. Convention on Long-Range Transboundary
Air Pollution.
. Coordination of such a system for atmospheric monitoring over Europe with the
existing infrastructure of meteorological services in Europe.
The accomplishment of many stages of such plans depends in many respects on

the development of an information-measuring means of remote sounding and, in
particular, spaceborne means. For example, El-Askary et al. (2003) analyzed several
remote-sounding instrument capabilities in monitoring dust storms including
MODIS, TRMM, and TMI. It was shown that in the optical part of the spectrum,
dust storms have a very high albedo and hence appear quite bright. Therefore, we can
look for high re¯ectance and anomalous water vapor to serve as indicators of dust
storms. In the longer wavelength microwave region, dust storms respond strongly to
scattering and this leads to reduced brightness temperatures. Combined optical and
microwave sounding has brought about a high probability of detecting dust storms.
Of particular concern is the recently observed uncertainty in assessments of the
atmosphere±ocean gas exchange. The main reason for this uncertainty is that dis-
tributions of inorganic and organic carbon in oceans are governed by a wide range of
processes whose spatiotemporal variability is studied on the basis of spatially frag-
mentary and temporally episodic measurements from research ships. To narrow this
uncertainty, the 16th Session of the IOC Assembly decided that in March 1991 work
should start on creating the global ocean observing system (GOOS) on the basis of
numerous projects and programs such as PIRATA, CPR, SOOP, and others, within
the framework of which autonomous anchored platforms with measuring systems
are being created such as TAO/TRITON. Though these systems are subject-oriented
at measuring the characteristics of the atmosphere±ocean system being used to
assess climate change, they can of course be used to study global biogeochemical
cycles.
A system of anchored ocean buoys is the basis for TAO/TRITON (Figure 5.1).
Buoys are mainly located in the band 8 N±8 S between 137 E and 95 W. Among the
many characteristics of the atmosphere±ocean system measured by this system, of
importance for studies of the carbon biogeochemical cycle are the temperature of
the atmosphere and ocean, wind direction and speed, precipitation rate, incoming
shortwave and longwave radiation, salinity and conductivity of water, relative air
humidity, pH, content of dissolved inorganic carbon, acidity of the medium, partial
pressure of CO2 , oxygen content, and many characteristics of the ocean±carbonate
system (Buesseler et al., 2000; Ando et al., 2005; Jiang et al., 2005). Together with
other measuring systems, developed within the framework of projects such as TOGA,
JGOFS, GOOS, CLIVAR, ECOHAB, RIDGE, OASIS, OOS, and others, TAO/
TRITON provides routine measurements of important parameters and helps to
obtain data about the dynamics of those elements of the World Ocean whose role
in the CO2 global biogeochemical cycle has been evaluated inadequately. The TAO/
Figure 5.1. TAO/TRITON (http://www.clivar.ucar.edu/organization/other/images/tao_new.jpg).
TRITON system is being enhanced by allocation of new buoys (e.g., along the
equator in the Indian Ocean). Together with data obtained using BATS, HOT,
OFP, and other components of the autonomous anchored stations to monitor
dierent basins of the World Ocean, an information database is being accumulated
for more reliable estimation of GMNSS input parameters.
GOOS is a comprehensive, full-scale, environmental monitoring system aimed
at solving a wide spectrum of problems (Holland and Nowlin, 2001; GOOS, 2002).
The history and prospects for GOOS development are re¯ected in the dynamics of
its structure and functions. For example, in 2000 deployment of its equipment
constituted only 30% of the level planned for the following decade, but by 2009
all its planned levels look likely to be allocated and equipped with the necessary
instruments to measure a wide range of characteristics of the World Ocean and the
atmosphere.
The main principles of GOOS consist in the following (Holland and Nowlin,
2001):
. Maximum involvement of all countries in creating the GOOS system with

subsequent development of an information service to help the climate change
studies of individual scientists or groups of experts on a global scale.
. Emphasis on development of local expertise to inform decision-makers about the
sustainable development of marine resources and preservation of the marine
domain.
. Achievement of goals set by regions or countries.
. Active involvement of the scienti®c community of the participating countries in
®nding the best way of developing the system.
. Provision of regional cooperation to maximize the use of the system's resources

by creating ecient regional sub-systems.
. Creation of a mechanism to interact with local, regional, and global systems,
without which the successful functioning of GOOS cannot be realized.
. Stability through a partnership between organizations and countries.
. Provision of thorough support to GOOS by governments, international
organizations, and other structures interested in preserving the environment
and maintenance of NSS sustainable development.
. Making the necessity to support GOOS at both national and international levels
clear to the population and politicians.
. Preservation of an ongoing strategy and long-term goals for the system.
. Information support and public demonstration of the eciency of GOOS goals.
The basic operational modules of GOOS are
. A network of remote-sounding means including both ground and spaceborne

oceanographic systems.
. Integration of all oceanographic models which provide parameterization of the
processes and their prediction for the coastal and open basins of the World
Ocean.
. A network of information sub-systems to collect and accumulate measurement
data with the subsequent formation of oceanographic databases.
However, despite the availability of such powerful information systems, the

problem remains of the statistical reliability of observational data, especially in the
summer in the tropics, when the instability of environmental characteristics remains
high (Barnett, 2003).
5.2 DATA AND KNOWLEDGE BASES ON

ENVIRONMENTAL BIOGEOCHEMISTRY
To obtain more reliable information on the global ®eld of CO2 concentration in a free
(unpolluted) atmosphere above a region of the South Paci®c basin, in August±
October 1996 Vay et al. (1999) carried out aircraft (NASA ¯ying laboratories
DC- 8 and P3-B) measurements of CO2 concentration within the framework of the
PEM-Tropics program (data obtained cover the atmospheric layer 0.1 km±12 km).
Analysis of the data showed that CO2 concentration in the Southern Hemisphere is
determined by the prevailing impact of inter-hemispherical transport coupled with
the marked in¯uence of regional processes. Comparison of data on the measured
concentration of CO2 and other MGCs has led to the conclusion that the level of CO2
concentration is mainly determined by contributions from continental sources.
Within the lower and middle troposphere above distant regions of the Paci®c Ocean
large-scale plumes of highly concentrated CO2 due to biomass burning have been
observed. Vay et al. (1999) discovered a source of CO2 in the band 15 N±15 S from
Sec. 5.2] 5.2 Data and knowledge bases on environmental biogeochemistry 301
the data of ground observations and from aircraft data for the lower troposphere in
the band 8 N±8.5 S and a further zone of increased CO2 concentration in the band
6.5 N±1 S. The observational data suggest the presence in the region of the SH ocean
of a CO2 sink located south of 15 S, with two distinct zones with opposite phases in
the annual change of concentration.
Of particular interest among MGCs is carbon monoxide, CO, the annual cycle of
which is estimated at 2.3 10 15 g. In distant regions of the Southern Hemisphere CO
concentrations vary within 40 mmol mol 1 and 65 mmol mol 1 , and in the Northern
Hemisphere in the presence of powerful CO2 sources, its concentration varies from
90 mmol mol 1 to 200 mmol mol 1 . Since November 1981, systematic studies of this
concentration have been carried out as part of the Shuttle program. The MAPS
experiment on remote sounding of global atmospheric pollution was undertaken.
The success of this experiment determined its continuation during two 10-day periods
in April and October 1994 using improved MAPS equipment, the nadir-directed
radiometer with a gas ®lter functioning at 4.67 mm within the basic CO2 absorption
band. This radiometer is based on the principle of selective modulation. The meas-
ured signal is the dierence between signals after passing through two gas cuvettes,
one of which is ®lled with the studied gas, the other is either empty or contains a gas
that does not absorb radiation. Analysis of the results obtained has shown that the
error of retrieval of CO2 content in the atmosphere does not exceed 10%.
During the ¯ights of the Space Shuttle orbiter Endeavour on April 2±19 and
October 30±November 11, 2004, measurements were made of CO content simul-
taneously with those from aircraft. Latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of
CO drawn from these measurements revealed a considerable change in CO content
in the atmosphere, which re¯ects the geographical location and changes in the inten-
sity of CO sources and sinks. For instance, in April, maximum CO concentrations
averaged over the atmospheric thickness constituting about 120 ppbv were observed
in the Northern Hemisphere with a gradual decrease of concentration (down to
40 ppb±60 ppb) toward middle and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. A
radical change in CO distribution took place in October, when there was a change in
sign of the meridional gradient of concentration compared with April. In October,
maximum values of CO concentration (>135 ppb) were located in the tropical band
covering the central part of South America, southern Africa, Indonesia, and northern
Australia. In these regions there were intensive ®res as a result of biomass burning.
The sphere of science that assesses the atmospheric composition of aerosols of
dierent scales and characters has advanced greatly. Henderson and ChyÂlek (2005),
based on data from satellite measurements using MTI, AVHRR, MODIS, MISR,
AATSR, and POLDER considered the problem of estimating aerosol optical depth
(AOD) as a function of the spatial resolution of the sensors applied and established
that in the range of pixels of the Earth's surface from 40 80 m 2 to 2,040 4,080 m 2 ,
NDVI is a great way of estimating AOD. Along with the optical depth of aerosols in
the atmosphere, the radius of cloud drops, character of heterogeneity, and pro®le of
clouds are important characteristics too. Knowledge of these characteristics makes it
possible to parameterize the radiation properties of clouds. BreÂon and Doutriaux-
Boucher (2005) analyzed in situ observations of clouds from ¯ying laboratories and
satellites and showed that the average radius of cloud drops over the continents is less
than that over NH oceans, and that maximum sizes of cloud drops are observed over
the open ocean. The data-processing algorithm used was based on the supposition
that cloud drop size has a gamma distribution. It was shown that in measurements of
the optical depth and ecient radius of cloud drops over land, ocean, and snow
cover, the most informative channels are 0.65 mm, 0.86 mm, and 1.2 mm, respectively.
Especially ecient was the polarization method based on calculation of Stokes vector
components.
Another important factor in the global biogeochemical cycle of substances is the
long-range transport of dust particles from Asia and Africa. ``Seas'' of Saharan dust
are the most dynamic part of the global ¯ux of dust through the atmosphere. As
numerous studies have shown, ecient assessment of their motion is possible, in the
case of polarization observations, by two sensors SSM/I and TMI at frequencies
19 GHz and 37 GHz. The dust storms that often occur in the Nile delta and move
toward the Mediterranean Sea have been known to reach North America, India, and
Arctic latitudes (Franzen et al., 1994). Facts on long-range dust transport from Africa
were ®rst recorded in 1970 by the Nimbus satellite. El-Askary et al. (2003) showed
that ecient monitoring of ¯uxes of dust and sand in the atmosphere is possible with
the combined use of satellite measurements in the visible (MODIS), infrared
(TOMS), and microwave (TMI) intervals. Apart from wind erosion there are other,
no less important mechanisms of dust input to the atmosphere, many of which are
connected with soil cultivation. Nevertheless, the structure of dust ¯ux monitoring
should cover other objects of the NSS and processes in the environment.
Detection and quantitative estimation of clouds of volcanic ashes or smoke
from biomass burning should be considered in the many national and international
geoinformation-monitoring programs. Ash can represent a serious danger for avia-
tion, and therefore mapping of clouds of volcanic ash should be made in real time.
This is only possible using spaceborne means coordinated with ground weather
radars. Marzano et al. (2006) analyzed the possibilities for this and suggested an
algorithm to estimate the size of particles and their concentration based on the
microphysical model of volcanic ash re¯ectivity. Detection of smoke from the sources
of biomass burning is possible from satellite measurements using the GOME-type
sensors carried by the ESA ERS-2 satellite and makes it possible to measure the
concentrations of ozone, NO2 , H2 CO, BrO, OClO, and SO2 .
Global estimation of the sources and sinks of greenhouse and other gases as well
as the chemical elements actively participating in biogeochemical cycles is possible
only by combining ground and satellite measurements with numerical models. Good
examples of such studies are Choi et al. (2005), JaegleÂ et al. (2004, 2005), and Liu et al.
(2006). Choi et al. (2005) analyzed the distributions of NO2 using a GOME spec-
trometer and CO using a MOPITT sensor of observations made over North America
and adjacent basins of the World Ocean in 2000 and showed that use of the RCTM
model enables reliable estimation of the contribution of lightning to sources of NO2
in the lower atmosphere, and to calculate the output of CO from the lower tropo-
sphere due to downward air ¯uxes. The MOPITT sensor provides a spatial resolution
of 22 22 km and has eight channels to record radiation in the IR.
Sec. 5.2] 5.2 Data and knowledge bases on environmental biogeochemistry 303
JaegleÂ et al. (2004, 2005) studied the eciency of combining satellite and ground
observations of NOx both on a global scale and over the territory of Africa using the
GOME-CHEM model. This study aimed at narrowing the uncertainty in the esti-
mates of ¯uxes of nitrogen oxides from sources in forest ®re and biomass-burning
zones. Indeed, available estimates of anthropogenic NOx emissions are characterized
by the following values. The contribution from fossil fuel burning is estimated at
20 TgN yr 1 ±24 TgN yr 1 , biomass burning gives 3 TgN yr 1 ±13 TgN yr 1 , and
exchange in the atmosphere±soil system constitutes 4 TgN yr 1 ±21 TgN yr 1 . This
high uncertainty in the estimates of anthropogenic NOx input hinders reliable assess-
ment of the ozone layer, acid rain, and eventually, climate change. The existing
methods of calculating NOx ¯uxes are mainly based on statistics that characterize
the trade in energy resources, on information about ®res in forests and savannahs,
and on data on the amount of burnt biomass in agriculture. Another source of
uncertainty in the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen is the microbiological process
in soils, which can only be estimated from individual local measurements of nitrogen
¯uxes at the atmosphere±soil boundary. Studies carried out under the GOME pro-
gram using the ERS-2 satellite made it possible to obtain the global pattern of NOx
source distribution and to assess the vertical distribution of NOx in the troposphere.
JaegleÂ et al. (2005) showed that the space-derived inventory of biomass-burning areas
has made it possible to narrow uncertainty in the estimate of NOx ¯uxes to the
atmosphere. Data on the distribution of NOx sources were put in the 3-D model
of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) with a horizontal resolution of 2
lat. 2.5 long. and 30 levels in the vertical, which made it possible to halve uncer-
tainty in the estimate of the global ¯ux of anthropogenic nitrogen to the atmosphere
(from 80% to 40%).
JaegleÂ et al. (2004), based on satellite measurements in 2000, charted maps of the
sources of NOx over the territory of Africa, marked in the dry season by ®res and
biomass burning when the atmosphere±soil gas exchange varies widely. Ground
observations within the information network IGAC/DEBITS/IDAF in western
Africa provided data on the microbiological processes in soils, which combined with
satellite observations enabled, for 40% of Africa, assessment of the NOx ¯uxes to the
atmosphere due to processes in soils (3.3 1.8 GtN yr 1 ) and biomass burning
(3.8 2.1 GtN yr 1 ). Model extrapolation enabled estimation of the contribution
of biogenic processes in the soils of Africa to the input of nitrogen to the atmosphere
at 7.3 GtN yr 1 .
Liu et al. (2006) studied the global mapping of the ozone layer to reveal details of
its spatiotemporal evolution and found that the layer of tropospheric ozone grows in
the latitudinal band 20 N±30 S in the southern spring, and over latitudes 25 N±45 S
during the boreal spring and summer. It was shown that the 3-D model of tropo-
spheric chemistry GEOS-CHEM eciently parameterizes the seasonal variability of
the ozone layer over most regions, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. By numer-
ous comparisons between real satellite measurements and model calculations it was
shown that, by combining the results of both, the global estimate of the state of the
ozone layer can be given to within 5 DU. A study carried out by Choi et al. (2005)
con®rmed these conclusions and showed that using a spaceborne spectrometer to
study the laws of solar spectrum absorption in the terrestrial atmosphere facilitates
the use of atmospheric chemistry models to retrieve the distributions of concen-
trations of various gases, especially SO2 and NO2 , and to estimate the albedo of
the atmosphere±land system. In particular, at solving the problem of the pro®le
retrieval of ozone, NO2 , OClO, temperature, and water vapor content of the
atmosphere, spaceborne instruments such as GOME, GOMOS, and SCIAMACHY
are ecient.
As Haszpra et al. (2005) demonstrated, assessment of the carbon balance over a
small territory can be done by measurements from stationary systems. A measuring
system was mounted on an 82 m radio/TV tower in an area with mixed vegetation
cover (agricultural ®elds and small areas of forest). Observations were made between
1997 and 2004, and it was found that in the daytime 1.4 mgCO2 m 2 s 1 ±
1.5 mgCO2 m 2 s 1 was assimilated from the atmosphere, and at night the atmo-
sphere received 0.1 mgCO2 m 2 s 1 ±0.3 mgCO2 m 2 s 1 . On the whole, the CO2 sink
constituted 107 48 mgC m 2 s 1 . Such measurements make it possible to substan-
tially increase the accuracy of estimating CO2 sources and sinks and to calculate
thereby the global role of a given territory in climate change.
The methods of remote sounding of CO2 ¯uxes are mainly based on NDVI
measurements (Burgheimer et al., 2006; Myeong et al., 2006) using various satellite
technologies as well as in situ measurements with SCIAMACHY carried by satellites
of the ESA series. The surface resolution of SCIAMACHY constitutes 320 km, and
the frequency of measurements is 36 hours.
5.3 ALGORITHMS FOR OBSERVATIONAL DATA PROCESSING
Geoinformation-monitoring data are characterized by their spatiotemporal in-

adequacy. The measurements of environmental parameters from the ground or by
¯ying laboratories give only fragmentary information about the elements involved in
the biogeochemical system. The use of GIS technology to process this information
gives a possibility to have its cartographic presentation. However, many fragments in
this pattern remain unidenti®ed. To reconstruct them, algorithms for spatiotemporal
interpolation have been proposed that are characterized by their varying claims to
accuracy (Krapivin and Potapov, 2002; Kondratyev et al., 2002a, b; Denzer et al.,
2005). In particular, Denzer et al. (2005) described the goals and problems of the
GIMM12 project (a satellite was launched in April 2002) which aimed at creating, on
the basis of open systems, an information network using GIMS technology (Krapivin
et al., 2006; Chukhlantsev, 2006). GIMS technology realizes the formula
GIMS GIS model (Krapivin et al., 2006; Wainwright and Mulligan, 2003).
5.3.1 A spatiotemporal interpolation algorithm based on the differential

approximation method
The database of an environmental monitoring system does not always meet the
requirement of parametric saturation demanded by GIMS technology. Therefore,
an algorithm to parameterize the functions of the system of a selected territory, which
Sec. 5.3] 5.3 Algorithms for observational data processing 305
avoids the need to make demands on a database would be of great interest. Suppose
that in the monitoring regime measurements are made of N characteristics of the
system xi (i 1; . . . ; N) at time moments ts (s 1; . . . ; M). The formal dependence
between xi t will be presented as a system of dierential equations with coecients
fai jk bi j g known:
dxi X N
ai jk xj txk t bi j xj t: 5:1
dt k; j1
Under initial conditions:

xi 0; i 1; . . . ; N: 5:2
The problem of retrieving the xi t values at any time moment in the interval of
observations 0; T is reduced to a simple Cauchy problem for the system of standard
equations. The only obstacle to its solution is the uncertainty of coecients ai jk and
bi j . In this case we follow a traditional course; that is, we measure the deviation
between calculated xi ts and measured xî ts values:
( )
X
M X
N
2
E xi ts xî ts =N M; 5:3
s1 i1
where 0 t1 tM T.
Then a set of coecients fai jk ; bi j g can be determined by solving the following
optimization problem:
E0 min E: 5:4
fai jk ;bi j g
The search for the minimum function E in (5.4), according to methods described
in Bellman and Roth (1966), can be reduced to a problem of dynamic programming.
Suppose that coecients fai jk ; bi j g are functions of time.
Let us denote:

x1 t

..
.

xN t

a111 t

..
Yt . : 5:5

aNNN t

b t
11
..

.

b t
NN
Without violating generality, it can be assumed that ai jk aikj . Then the Cauchy
problem can be written in the following form:
dY
GY; 5:6
dt
where the function G has the following components:
9
Gi Y 0 for i N 1; . . . ; Nc ; >
>
=
X
N 5:7
Gi Y ai jk xj txk t bi j xj t for i 1; . . . ; N; >
>
;
k; j1
with ai jk 0 ai jk , bi j 0 bi j , and Nc N N 2 N 2 N 1=2.

Note that, by using the quasi-linearization method, the solution of a non-linear
problem can be reduced to solution of a succession of linear problems. The method is
a further development of the Newton±Raphson method (Dulnev and Ushakovskaya,
1988) and its generalized version.
Let us introduce a succession of functions Y 1 t; . . . ; Y n t so that Y 1 t is a
®rst approximation to solution of system (5.6). Then the nth approximation is found
by solving the following linear system:
( )
n
dY i t n 1
XNc
dGi Y n 1 t n n 1
Gi Y t Y j Yj : 5:8
dt j1
dY
As shown in Bellman and Dreifus (1962), the iterative process (7.8) converges
following the square law. Solution of (5.8) in a general form is written as
X
Nc
Y n t Pt Ck H k t; 5:9
k1
where Pt is a partial solution to system (7.8); and H k t is the vector solution of
a homogeneous system. To determine Pt, we solve (7.8) under initial conditions
Yi 0 0 (i 1; . . . ; Nc ). Functions H k t are found by solving the Cauchy
problem:
( )
dY i t X
n Nc
dGi Y n 1 t n n 1
Y j Yj i 1; . . . ; Nc ; 5:10
dt j1
dY

1 0 0

0 1 0

.. 2
.. .
H 1 0 . ; H 0
. ; . . . ; H Nc
0 .. :
5:11

0 0 0

0 0 1
It follows from (5.8)±(5.11) that constants Ck are unknown initial conditions of

the system of equations (5.7). Therefore, at each iteration in the process of ®nding
either a partial solution or full solutions to homogeneous equations, constants Ck are

found in order to obtain the solution of x n that best agrees with observational
results in the sense of the least squares method:
" #
XM X N X
Nc
k
2
E min Pi tk Ck H i ts xî ts : 5:12
fCk g
s1 i1 k1
Let
@E
0 for k 1; . . . ; Nc : 5:13
@Ck
It follows from (5.12) and (5.13) that
X
Nc
Akm Ck Bm 0; m 1; . . . ; Nc ; 5:14
k1
where
M X
X N
k m
Akm H t ts H t ts ;
s1 t1
M X
X N
B P1 ts x^1 ts H m
t ts :
s1 t1
Thus, at each iteration of (5.8), system (5.14) should be solved. The rate of
convergence of this procedure depends on the correct choice of initial conditions.
The method of dierential approximation refers to universal approaches in the
function approximation theory to the analysis of dynamic systems. Under remote
monitoring conditions, the use of this method can be justi®ed by allowing aircraft
and satellite measurements to be spaced in time with respect to the objects to be
monitored and, hence, in processing the readings from measuring instruments it is
necessary to take into account possible changes in the object between moments of
measurement.
5.3.2 Method of self-organizing models

The problem of spatiotemporal recovery of monitoring data can be solved using the
inductive method of model self-organization developed in Ivachnenko et al. (1984).
The idea behind this approach is the traditional function approximation theory.
Let an object or process be described by model C f a1 ; . . . ; n, where
parameters fai g re¯ect the quantitative, functional, and structural sections of the
phenomenon under study. The multitude of possible types of function f can be
determined on the basis of expert estimation with consideration of a priori informa-
tion and a heuristic set of partial descriptions of the phenomenon. The training
sequence f fi g is constructed which serves the basis for multi-row selection of the
model of optimal complexity and acceptable accuracy. The ®rst level of selection
consists in calculating row fys g, where ys gai 1 ; ai (s 1; . . . ; L C 2n ;
i 1; . . . ; n). The second level of selection gives row fzp g, where zp gyj 1 ; yj
(p 1; . . . ; C 2L ; j 1; . . . ; L). The process of selection is continued until the most

regular mathematical description of the phenomenon under study is obtained.
Estimation of the accuracy of the model obtained and the choice of moment for
the process of selection to end depend on the chosen criterion of discrepancy between
the theoretical and empirical image of the phenomenon. The rms deviation criterion
is most often used, and a polynomial serves as function f . The procedure for model
selection consists in a gradual complication of the polynomial approximation.
The method of self-organizing models was described in detail in the work of
Ivachnenko et al. (1980, 1984), in which various modi®cations of the method are
given accompanied by examples of how best to use them in solving applied problems.
5.3.3 Harmonic function method

The process of heat propagation in a ¯at homogeneous medium G with constant
thermal-physical properties ( is density, c is speci®c heat capacity, and K is the
coecient of heat conductivity; ; C; K const > 0) is described by
!
2
@T 2 @ T @ 2T
a ; 5:15
@t @' 2 @ 2
where T T'; ; t is the temperature at point '; 2 G at time moment t; and

a 2 K=c is the coecient of heat conductivity for G. If the process of heat transfer
is stationary, then (5.15) becomes the standard Laplace equation:
@ 2T @ 2T
div grad T 0: 5:16
@' 2 @ 2
In this case T is a harmonic function of spatial coordinates ' and . Together
with the temperature ®eld T'; ; t let us consider the ®eld of self-radiation of G in
the microwave range, whose intensity in accordance with the Rayleigh±Jeans approx-
imation (Chinlon, 1989) at a local thermodynamic equilibrium is characterized by
brightness temperature TJ '; ; ; ; t, where is the wavelength of the electromag-
netic interval, and is the observation angle. Assume that for a suciently small area
VM of any point M 2 G the following condition is satis®ed:
TJ '; ; ; ; t AM BM T'; ; t; '; 2 VM ; AM ; BM const: 5:17
The form of (5.17) follows from theoretical and experimental estimates of TJ .
Thus, for a medium that is homogeneous in depth and limited by a ¯at surface, the
following equation is valid TJ T0 , where ; ; " is the emissivity coecient
of the medium, " is the dielectric permeability of the medium, and T0 is the
thermodynamic temperature. According to experimental estimates (Shutko, 1987),
at wavelengths 5 cm±8 cm and Tj for freshwater practically linearly dependent on
T0 , the steepness of this dependence constitutes 0.35 K/ C±0.5 K/ C. An increase in
salinity S from 0% to 13%±16% is followed by a decrease in sensitivity of the
radiation ®eld to temperature variations in a wide range of decimeter waves from
10 cm to 5 cm. In cases of relationships S 700, 0 T0 30 C, 0 S 180%,
and 0 25 radiation ®eld sensitivity to variations in T0 is at a minimum.

It follows from (5.17) that TJ at each point M 2 G follows the relationship:
2n
TJ '; ; ; ; t 2 1 AM BM T' r cos a; r sin a; t da
0
2
1
2 TJ ' r cos a; r sin a; ; ; t da
0
for any r 2 0; rM , from which it follows that TJ is harmonic in G and, hence, satis®es
(5.16). A typical boundary value problem for (5.16) is the Dirichlet problem. At
boundary G of medium G a continuous function T~J T~J u is prescribed, where
u ' i is the complex coordinate of point '; 2 G. Function TJ should be
found to be harmonic within G, assuming given values of T~J on G. This function,
according to the complex derivative function theory is a real part of some analytical
function Fz, which is found as the Cauchy integral:

1
Fz d 5:18
2i G z
with the real density , where 2 G; z ' i is a random point in G. Directing z
to some point u of contour G and taking into account relationships Re 'u T~J u
and Imd= u cosr; n d=r, where r is the distance from to u (the direc-
tion is chosen from to u), d is the length element on G, and n is the external normal
to G. From (5.18) we obtain for u the Fredholm integral equation:

1 cosr; n
u d 2T~J u
G r
with the continuous core cosr; n=r, which can be solved from any right-hand side.
Having solved this equation, we ®nd 'z and, hence,
TJ '; ; ; ; t Re 'z:
When G is a circle jz z0 j < R, the solution
TJ '; ; ; ; t TJ r; ; ; ; t ' i z0 re i ; r < R; 0 2
of the Dirichlet problem can be obtained in the form of a Poisson integral:

1 2 ~ R2 r2
TJ '; ; ; ; t TJ a 2 2
da;
2 0 R r 2Rr cos a
where T~J a T~J z0 Re ia 0 a 2.
Without breaking integrity, we apply this method together with the method of
dierential approximation to the procedure of data retrieval from the route measure-
ment and mapping of territory G at time moment t . Let remote measurements be
made in the time interval t0 ; tL at a discrete number of points Ai (i 1; . . . ; N) at
boundary G. Assume that during the time of measurements Dt the level of time
dependence of observational data is negligibly small; that is, the whole series of
measurements can be divided into M jtL t0 =Dtj statistically reliable sites tj ; tj1
( j 1; . . . ; M), and all measurements can be presented in the form of matrix
kTJ i; jk. The method of dierential approximation makes it possible to reduce
all lines in this matrix to moment t and then, following the method described above
to retrieve TJ in territory G.
5.3.4 Method of evolutionary modeling

Remote measurements of environmental parameters are often characterized by sets
of rows that have highly unstable properties. In this case using methods like that
above or other methods of traditional statistics becomes impossible. The method of
evolutionary modeling makes it possible under conditions of unavoidable instability
to retrieve true estimates of environmental characteristics. This method consists in
successive selection of models according to indicators of the re¯ective quality of these
models of the process under study. The model resulting from this selection is assumed
to accurately represent the object of monitoring and is used to calculate the necessary
characteristics. Various problem-oriented realizations of this method and the neces-
sary computer procedures are described in Bukatova et al. (1991).
The method of evolutionary modeling is based on a principally new approach to
intellectual technologies, one that ensures transformation of knowledge about a
strategic resource. Particular important here are intellectual information technologies
based on knowledge oriented at solving intellectual problems. Their function consists
in support by means of human±machine systems of the use of knowledge considered
in an abstract way as being scattered, dissolved in the individual experience of other
people, models of the world, and knowledge accumulated in the course of the
evolutionary development of individual sciences (natural, public, and technical).
Intellectual technologies are constructed according to the following principle: some
part of knowledge is in a way abstracted from the general information pattern of the
world, and then, because of its ability to provide new knowledge, returns to the user,
transforming into a meta-technology for certain kinds of human activity. When
selecting the necessary level of knowledge for decision-making. Thus, prerequisites
appear for penetration of information technologies into new spheres: global ecology,
synthesis of complicated technical systems, medicine, geology, etc., in which rational
solutions cannot be adequately formalized.
The complexity of problems to be solved here brings forth the unique problem of
creating computerized tools of intellectual technologies. The latter are determined not
by initial computer propertiesÐbut by providing a computer with the characteristics
needed to adjust problematic conditions and requirements for their solution. These
requirements cannot be simpli®ed in the way that traditional calculation technologies
are (i.e., based on the triad: mathematical model, discrete model oriented at
numerical solution of the problem, and software corresponding to the structure of
algorithmic provision). The kinds of characteristics can be determined from general
features of the problems of intellectual technologies such as problem orientability,
system character, peculiar input, conditionality in decision-making because of the
complexity of systems, their multi-factor character, and internal dynamism. In this

connection, the computer should be able:
. to operate with unreliable data or incomplete data;

. to accumulate unreliable knowledge (i.e., knowledge that is fragmentary,
controversial, subjective, and poorly structured);
. to synthesize, based on non-formal principles, dissimilar scienti®c knowledge;
and
. to search in the hypothetic space for alternatives bound to a given problem.
These properties could not result from the evolutionary development of com-
puter techniques, because they are based on the functioning of successive principles,
which re¯ect the Cartesian ideal of Mind, when formal judgements are subjected to
traditional cognitive science (Valera, Thompson, and Rosch, 1991). That's why, for a
qualitative leap, ideas are needed from `òutside the box'', outside the global direction
of development of computer techniques including an improvement of architecture,
hardware logic, methods of programming, and database control. To solve the prob-
lems of global ecodynamics connected with a search of strategies for NSS sustainable
development, a certain understanding is needed of the necessity to take into account
the human factor because of the presence of informal stages in problem solution and
the possibility to meet the formalization requirements by using heuristics-intuitive
knowledge.
Knowledge engineering is the means of constructing expert systems as a kind
of intellectual technology. Here the gap between the problems of intellectual tech-
nologies and the proper content of arti®cial intelligence as a scienti®c and technical
discipline has been removed:
. heuristic search methods have been improved for solving complex optimization
problems (Rayward-Smith et al., 1996);
. methods of presenting knowledge have been developed (with consideration of
their functions) to describe concrete fragments of specialized subject knowledge
of experts;
. methods of working with experts have been developed to ®ll the base of
knowledge with non-controversial fragments; and
. expert systems themselves have been provided with the ability to iterate and
evolve (i.e., to correct the content of bases of knowledge in the process of work
with the user).
This brief description testi®es to the fact that scientists have managed in an
abstract way to extrapolate of capabilities of arti®cial intelligence. However, embed-
ding concrete expert systems into a weakly structured human medium has revealed
so-called ``narrow places''. These are the prescribed bases of knowledge, problem of
extracting knowledge from the expert, and the antithesis to specialized and universal
strategies of problem solution. This does not deny the signi®cance of the attempts of
specialists to develop these principles of arti®cial intelligence, since for a certain set of
problems such means are sucient. For instance, various architectures of expert
systems have appeared designed to solve problems about the structure of a problem,
types of data, etc. (Jackson, 1999). In particular, in the problems of global eco-
dynamics, the fact±conclusion bond is always postulated, which is manifested
through the use of sets of partial models, such as balance, statistical, optimization,
neuronet models, etc. Here the problem arises of the choice of model (Bartsev et al.,
2003). Kondratyev et al. (2002a, b) proposed a technology to synthesize such a model
on the basis of numerous partial models of dierent types, whose structure is adjusted
by pre-history and adapted to data of real-mode monitoring. Thus, a procedure is
being developed of renewable adaptation of the model and the monitoring regime to
NSS dynamics, due to which situations of irremovable uncertainty can be overcome.
5.3.5 Approximate method for the inverse problem solution to identify the
parameters of a monitored object
In the process of monitoring, a multitude of data series is formed, the use of which
needs the establishment of correlations between the parameters of the object under
study. Consider a situation that occurs under conditions of radio-physical monitor-
ing. Let, at time moment ti at the output of each measuring device (radiometer), the
values Zi j (i 1; . . . ; M; j 1; . . . ; ) be ®xed so that Zi j Tj i j . Here Tj is the real
value of the jth parameter (radio brightness temperature at wavelength j ), and i j is
the noise constituent. Search for the correlation is reduced to determination of the
dependence
Tj fj X; 5:19
where X x1 ; . . . ; xm are geophysical parameters.
There are many approaches to ®nding function f . As a rule, mean square
deviation is used as the criterion for agreement (Borodin and Krapivin, 1998).
However, this criterion cannot re¯ect the dispersive characteristics of the noise
constituent in measurements. Therefore, let us consider the problem from this point
of view. Let function (5.19) be linear, and then we obtain the system n m of
equations:
kAi j kX T X: 5:20
A solution for (5.20) should be found so that its dispersion is at a minimum. It is
assumed that X f1 ; . . . ; n g has a zero average and dispersion f 21 ; . . . ; 2n g. Such a
solution for fx 1 ; . . . ; x m g is called a -solution.
Multiply the ith equation of system (5.19) successively by magnitudes c1i ; . . . ; cmi
(i 1; . . . ; m) and let
X
n
cji Ail jl ; 5:21
i1
(
1; j l;
jl l; j 1; . . . ; m: 5:22
0; j 6 l;
With conditions (5.21) and (5.22) satis®ed we obtain

X
n
x 01 c1i Ti : 5:23
i1
Similar relationships are written for x 0j ( j 2; . . . ; m). Substituting T for Z in (5.23)

(i.e., proceeding to system (5.20)), we have
X
n
x~1 c1i Ti i : 5:24
i1
From (5.24) we calculate the dispersion

X
n
x1
D~ c 21i 2i : 5:25
i1
Since the x~1 and x 01 averages coincide by de®nition, to solve the posed problem it
is necessary to ®nd a minimum of dispersion (5.25) with conditions (5.22) satis®ed.
Let us use the method of uncertain Lagrangian multipliers and form an auxiliary
expression:
!
X
n
2 2
X
n Xm Xn
'c11 ; . . . ; c1k c 1i i 1 c1i Ai1 1 j c1i Ai j : 5:26
i1 i1 j2 i1
Equalizing the ®rst derivatives of function (5.26) to zero, we obtain:

X
m
2c1k 2k j Akj 0 k 1; . . . ; n: 5:27
j1
Relationships (5.27) and conditions (5.22) constitute a system m n of equa-

tions whose solution makes it possible to determine the optimal values of c i j we are
looking for. Analysis shows that Dxj j =2. The values of j can be found from
the system of equations:
X
m X
n
Ai j Ai1 X
m X
n
Ai j Ail
j 2; j 0; l 2; . . . ; m:
j1 i1
2i j1 i1
2j
Quantitative estimates show that the -solution is preferable to that obtained by

the criterion of mean square deviation. Let us consider the case m 2 and n 3,
where x1 is the thermodynamic temperature, and x2 is the mineralization degree.
From (5.27) we have
!
1 Xn
A 2
i2
Xn
Ai1 A i2
c 1k Ak1 Ak2 ; k 1; . . . ; n; 5:28
D 2k i1
2i i1
2i
!
1 Xn
A 2i1 Xn
Ai1 Ai2
c 2k Ak2 Ak1 ; k 1; . . . ; n; 5:29
D 2k i1
2i i1
2i
where
!
X
n
A 2i1 X
n
A 2i2 X
n
Ai1 Ai2 2
D :
i1
2i i1
2i i1
2i
Optimal estimate of x j can be determined from the relationship

X
n
x j c ji Zi j 1; 2:
i1
The dispersion of the x j estimate is as follows:

X
n
A 2i2 X
n
A 2i1
Dx 1 D 1
; Dx 2 D 1
: 5:30
i1
2i i1
2i
Compare this estimate with that by the method of least squares. Let

1 1

kAi j k 1 2 :

1 3
Then, from formulas (5.30) we obtain
c 11 6 22 3
2 2 =D1 ; c 12 3 21 23 =D1 ; c 13 2 21 22 =D1 ;
c 21 2 22 23 =D1 ; c 22 21 23 =D1 ; c 23 21 2 22 =D1 ;
where D1 21 4 22 23 .
Then, we have
Dx 1 9 21 22 4 21 23 22 23 =D1 ;
Dx 2 21 22 21 23 22 22 =D1 :
Let x^1 and x^2 be estimates of the parameters x1 and x2 , obtained by the method
of least squares (i.e., be solutions of the minimization problem):
! !
X n 1=2 X n 1=2
min Ti i Ai1 x1 Ai2 x2 2 Ti i Ai1 x^1 Ai2 x^2 2 :
x1 ;x2
i1 i1
We have
X
N
4T1 1 =3 T2 2 =3 2T3 3 ;
k; j1
x^2 T1 1 =2 T3 3 =2;
x1 16 21 22 4 23 =9;
D^ x2 21 23 =4:
D^
It can be seen that D^x1 Dx 1 and D^
x2 Dx 2 . Hence, the -solution is
preferable to estimates obtained by the method of least squares.
5.3.6 Randomization algorithm for linear fractional approximation

Measurements of the environmental parameters in the monitoring regime provide
sets of series of quantitative characteristics for the system of data processing, which
cannot be analyzed because of their stationarity. There are many ways to overcome
time dependence and thereby remove the contradiction between the applicability of
statistical methods and the level of observational data stationarity. One such way
consists in partitioning a series of noise-loaded measurements into quasi-stationary
parts (Borodin et al., 1996; Krapivin et al., 2004).
Let the results of measurements be presented by a succession of magnitudes Zi j ,
where i 1; . . . ; N is the number of time intervals, j 1; . . . ; M is the number of the
measuring device (i.e., the information channel). It is assumed that
Zi j Ti j i j ; 5:31
where Ti j and i j are the determinate and stochastic constituents, respectively, with i j
having a zero average and dispersion 2j .
The problem of sampling the piecewise constant of a random succession (5.31) is
reduced to classi®cation of distribution functions with identical averages. To approx-
imate sample fZi j g by a linear, broken, randomized function, we perform the follow-
ing operations. First, we ®nd the dierence
1X k
1X k
DZkj Zk1; j Zlj DTkj D :
k l1 k l1 lj
If magnitudes Zkj and Zk1; j belong to samples with similar averages, then DTkj 0.
Otherwise, DTkj 6 0. Let us ssume that Zkj and Zk1;j belong to a sample from
distributions with similar averages if
jDZkj j akj ; 5:32
where akj dj , d is an adaptation coecient (usually d 3 1 1=k 1=2 ).

Beginning with k 1 and continuing to successively calculate DZkj and check the
condition (5.32), we ®nd the quasi-stationary section of succession fZi j g. If condition
(5.32) is not satis®ed simultaneously for Zk1; j and Zk2; j , then the element Zkj is
considered the last in the sub-multitude whose elements satisfy the condition of quasi-
stationarity. The subsequent sub-multitude of the series fZi j g begins from Zk1; j as
a ®rst element. The sub-multitude where the average is not a constant value (i.e., the
condition (5.32) is never satis®ed) is formed as a sub-multitude of random values,
whose average changes, following the linear law. In this case, at all stages of the
procedure can the values DZkm; j Zkm1; j Zkm; j (m 1 s) be calculated.
The linear approximation of the section of series fZi j g is constructed between the
values Zk1; j and Zsj . The equation for the straight line we are looking for can be
written as:
Z Ztsj DZ sj t tsj ; 5:33
where t is the time identi®ed at the very moment the measurements were recorded:
1 X1
N
1X N
tsj 0:5s k 2; DZ sj DZk1; j ; N 2tsj ; Zsj Z :
N 1 i1
N i1 ki; j
Checking the stability of the angle of the straight line slope (5.33) as it is formed
can be carried out by analyzing the value
1X l
DZ~lj DZlj DZk1; j ;
l i1
calculated at each step l. Single violations of this stability (i.e., when

jDZ~lj j 6j 1 l 1 1=2 ) are considered accidental releases and either are excluded
from consideration or substituted with average values.
5.3.7 Statistical classi®cation of the thermal ®elds of land cover

The developed remote-sounding technology, based on the radiofrequency region of
electromagnetic waves, intensively introduced in the systems of nature monitoring
requires the development of algorithms for the data processing of measurements
based on the retrieval of qualitative characteristics. Non-stationarity is one of the
characteristic indicators of Tj t data rows recorded at the end of measurements
t1 ; t2 for each radiometer in the wavelength region j . Tj values during single time
intervals t j1l ; t j2l 2 t1 ; t2 are determined by the spatial features of characteristics of
the proper radiation of natural and anthropogenic ®elds of brightness Uj located at
respective sectors of the measurement line (e.g., from ¯ying laboratories).
The process representing the time function Tj t of the spatial distribution of
dielectric, thermodynamic, and relief features of land covers is essentially the same
process of linear averaging of the brightness ®eld within the main antenna lobe, with
the addition of the proper noise of the radiometer to the obtained result T~j t.
t
TJ t 1=J T~j z exp t z=J dz t; 5:34
0
where J is the time constant of integration of the RC chain,

t
t 1=j j z j z exp t z=j dz:
0
Here j is the time function resulting from averaging the brightness ®eld over the side
lobes of the radiometer antenna of range j .
These assumptions facilitate use of the theory of linear transformation of
determinate, ¯uctuating, and pulse processes both to ascertain function Tj t in
(5.34) with U and given, and to identify ®eld Uj from the results of radiometric
measurements.
The type of Uj ®eld corresponds to the type of cover:
. smooth backgrounds give (as radiometer output) Tj t values with single-type
(in a statistical sense) properties like the measurements over an isotropic ®eld
with a given function of correlation (quiet water bodies, landing strips, etc.);
. quasi-homogeneous covers give single-type realizations of Tj , like those obtained
in measurements over the Uj ®eld with a given function of correlation (rough sea
surface, barkhan1 sands, etc.);
. anisotropic surfaces with bifurcations are characterized by rare but considerable
changes in apparent temperature observed in measurements which determine Tj
realizations with one or several extremes (forest and peatbog ®res, conduit
network, takyrs, etc.); and
. parti-colored (patchy) covers that show variations in their radiant characteristics
take the form of pulses of dierent amplitude and duration (waterlogged forest,
burned-out part of a forest ®re, forest±marsh complexes, etc.).
To solve the problem of identi®cation, classi®cation, and determination of the

radiophysical and geometrical characteristics of dierent objects of the environment
by the output signal of the jth radiometer is reduced to the following chain of
operations:
. selection of a given fTj g realization of time intervals t~j1l ; t~j2l within which fTj1 g
can be considered a quasi-stationary (locally homogeneous) process by the
criterion of Borodin et al. (1978) with all readings in a given interval attributed
to the distribution of similar averages and dispersions (single-range UHF phase);
. calculation of ®rst moments fMj1 g from the data of each fTj1 g sample and cross-
correlation functions from the data of dierent samples presented as brightness
temperatures;
. determination of the left t j1l and right t j2l boundaries for each interval of quasi-
stationarity by considering the transition processes caused by speci®c features of
the directional diagram of radiometer antennas;
. approximation of Tj t in the form of consecutive adjacent pulses qj1 whose
leading and falling edges coincide in time with t j1l and t j2l , and the amplitude
is equal to the average value of function Tjl t in the time interval;
. revealing the parametric and non-parametric statistical features of Tj t realiza-
tions as a sequence of random quantities fqjl g with averages Tjl and correlation
matrix K jlm ; and
. calculation of the point, interval, and non-parametric estimates of the reliability
of distinguishing between objects qjl and the characteristics of ®eld U at respec-
tive sectors of the measurement line in terms of the assumed classi®cation of the
covers.
1
Barkhan sands are the mobile sand dunes shaped like a crescent that are the typical image of
desert landscapes.
Calculation of the spectral and polarization characteristics of ®eld fUj g by the

entire m-range and n-channel radiometric complex assumes
. speci®cation and spatiotemporal combination of the boundaries of a single-range

UHF phase;
. determination of the boundaries n1k and n2k of the existence of an m-range UHF
phase Q njk (i.e., of natural origin), where the set of averages, dispersions, and
other moments does not vary (for each channel and range) within the interval
n1k ; n2k ;
. revealing the parametric and non-parametric statistical features of all realizations
of fTj g ( j 1; . . . ; n) as a sequence of n-dimensional random quantities fQ nk g,
according to their moments and correlation matrices;
. calculation of the point, interval, and non-parametric estimates of the reliability
of distinguishing in the n-range UHF phase between respective estimates of the
geophysical and geometrical characteristics of an object Q nk .
The whole procedure of identifying an environmental object ends with the

component-by-component veri®cation of its parameters according to the scheme
in Figure 5.2.
Figure 5.2. Schematic diagram of the consecutive, simultaneous, exhaustive procedure for
statistical decision-making in a multi-channel microwave-monitoring system. Designations:
mj is the memory capacity for the jth channel, j is the time delay interval in the jth channel,
and Ti is the radiobrightness temperature.
5.3.8 Assessment of algorithm accuracy

The algorithms of spatiotemporal interpolation considered here are, of course, less
accurate than model restorations of spatial patterns since the latter, in contrast to the
former, take into account more detailed correlations between the elements and
processes over the territory under study. But the former do have their advantages:
they are universal and independent of the orientation of the monitored object. There-
fore, when equipping monitoring systems, the complex use of these methods is
expedient, making it possible for the user to choose between them on the basis of
expert estimation or other algorithms. The results given in Tables 5.5 through 5.7
characterize to some extent the accuracy of these algorithms in the case of two natural
objects.
The calculations given in Krapivin and Phillips (2001) to enable comparison
of empirical and retrieved estimates of brightness contrasts showed that under
stationary climatic conditions, the method of harmonic functions is more accurate.
The method of group consideration of arguments is always less accurate than the
method of dierential approximation. However, without theoretical comparisons of
these algorithms it is impossible to pick out the most accurate or to clearly classify
them depending on the quality of experimental data rows. Further studies of these
logarithms are needed. Clearly, they can supplement each other in attempts at
realizing the adaptation process when choosing one of them.
5.3.9 Consistency of remote-monitoring information

Remote monitoring of the environment is an ecient and non-invasive method of
obtaining information about the state of natural objects. This information is used
to develop the methods and forms of interaction of humans with natural systems, to
realize preventive measures for their protection from undesirable impacts, and to
predict the consequences of accomplishment of anthropogenic projects. The results
from application of remotely obtained information depend on how such data are
accumulated, processed, and used. In other words, the real mechanism behind the use
of information is based on construction of an empirical model that looks for depen-
dences between numerous variables in a given sample of measurements. The expert
component, which includes formation of the feature space and the use of a priori
information, constitutes a large part of this process. It is here that distortions of
mechanisms of interpretation and presentation of the knowledge obtained about the
studied natural system occur. The main reasons for such distortion are connected
with the noise loading of observational data, non-representativeness of data samples,
total or partial lack of relevant arguments, the fragmentary character both in space
and in time of the measurements themselves, and with the presence of irremovable
information uncertainties.
The mathematical model is the basic instrument for learning and making
decisions in environmental monitoring. Here, along with these reasons of
information distortion, additional facts appear connected with a poor choice of
model and inadequately studied mechanisms of the functioning of natural systems.
Table 5.5. Comparison of the accuracies of the Method of Self-Organizing Models (MSOM)
and dierential approximation algorithms from results of retrieval of water level oscillations at
the boundary of the Nyok Ngot lagoon (South Vietnam) with the South China Sea. From Bui
(2001). Notation: Dt is the time step, and " is the error (%).
Measured values Calculated values
MSOM Dierential approximation
Dt Dt Dt " Dt " Dt " Dt "

1 day 1 hour 1 day 1 hour 1 day 1 hour
12 1 13.44 12 1.06 6 10.92 9 1.17 7
17 23 14.11 17 18.86 18 15.64 8 24.38 6
22 41 21.78 1 34.85 15 20.90 5 37.72 8
22 42 20.02 9 40.74 3 22.66 3 37.80 10
12 28 9.36 22 29.96 7 13.32 11 30.52 9
1 11 0.96 4 12.21 11 0.87 13 11.55 5
15 4 16.05 13 -4.16 4 13.65 9 -4.12 3
23 12 24.61 7 11.16 7 25.53 11 11.46 2
34 13 27.54 19 11.83 9 30.60 10 14.43 11
36 2 33.12 8 2.04 2 33.58 7 1.92 4
28 20 33.04 18 21.20 6 24.64 12 18.80 6
15 26 16.50 10 22.62 13 16.65 11 23.92 8
4 1 4.12 3 0.91 9 -4.36 9 1.05 5
1 11 1.10 10 10.45 5 1.10 10 10.56 4
Minimum error (%) 1 2 3 2
Average error (%) 10.5 7.8 8.5 5.9
Maximum error (%) 22 18 13 11
Therefore, in the sphere of information provision for monitoring, the principal

problem is choice of an adequate model. There are various approaches to solution
of this problem. The simplest class of models, based on approximation of in situ
observations, are the polynomial models that are constructed using the method of
regressive analysis, the method of group consideration of arguments, the method of
Table 5.6. Comparison of various algorithms for spatiotemporal interpolation with retrieved
speeds of ¯ows in Nyok Ngot lagoon.
Measured Calculated value

value
GMDH Error, Method of Error, Evolu- Error,
" dierential " tionary "
approxi- method
mation
(cm/s) (%) (%) (%)
12 12.4 0.030 12.29 0.024 12.61 5.1
16 15.9 0.006 16.37 0.023 16.74 4.9
31 30.1 0.003 30.41 0.019 27.90 10.0
39 38.7 0.008 38.30 0.018 38.49 9.3
41 40.9 0.002 40.02 0.024 37.43 8.7
39 40.7 0.044 41.07 0.053 43.84 12.4
52 50.2 0.035 50.28 0.033 45.92 11.7
49 47.3 0.035 46.89 0.043 43.46 11.3
44 43.0 0.023 42.64 0.031 48.79 10.9
42 42.1 0.002 41.08 0.022 41.92 4.8
35 35.2 0.006 35.63 0.018 36.19 3.4
15 12.6 0.160 16.37 0.091 16.08 7.2
10 8.0 0.2 10.08 0.008 9.97 0.3
1 1.2 0.2 1.12 0.119 9.88 1.2
14 14.3 0.021 14.03 0.002 12.95 7.5
29 30.8 0.041 28.45 0.009 26.42 8.9
31 33.3 0.074 30.63 0.012 34.47 11.2
31 32.9 0.061 30.57 0.014 33.82 9.1
24 23.1 0.038 24.53 0.022 24.86 3.6
19 17.2 0.095 19.34 0.018 18.16 14.4
27 26.6 0.015 26.54 0.017 24.44 9.5
(continued)
Table 5.6 (cont.)
Measured Calculated value

value
GMDH Error, Method of Error, Evolu- Error,
" dierential " tionary "
approxi- method
mation
(cm/s) (%) (%) (%)
18 17.6 0.022 18.20 0.011 16.61 7.7
9 8.8 0.022 9.10 0.011 9.66 7.3
5 6.3 0.26 5.12 0.023 5.19 3.8
10 9.9 0.01 10.19 0.019 8.96 10.4
2 1.7 0.15 2.04 0.017 2.18 9.1
Minimum error 0.002 0.002 0.3
Average error 0.061 0.027 8.28
Maximum error 0.26 0.119 14.4
minimization of the middle class, the method of splain-approximation, etc. Each of

these methods has a certain degree of information reliability.
The remote sounding of land covers is based on recording the properties of
re¯ected and scattered electromagnetic radiation. Such a possibility to obtain infor-
mation about land cover properties is connected here with the facts that the character
of proper (thermal) radiation, and the mechanisms of scattering and re¯ection
are closely connected with the physical and geometrical properties of the surface,
inadequate knowledge of which can also lead to erroneous conclusions and, hence, is
a source of controversy in the information space.
To parameterize the reasons for information instability that appear in problems
of the remote sounding of the environment, we consider two types of models. The ®rst
refers to the class of expert structures, which re¯ects expert opinion. Expert models
are ranged according to their eciency. Each of these models, M, is characterized by
structure jMj and complexity C: M fjMj; Cg. The quality of the model M is
assessed either by expert criterion or by objective criterion . Let A be the
multitude of arguments present in the model's structure, the best by criterion ,
and A; the multitude of arguments included in the model's structure, the best
by both criteria and . Then, the simplest empirical component of knowledge is the
parameter:
2jAj \ A; j=jAj jA; j;
where 2 0; 1.
Table 5.7. Example of retrieval of brightness temperature measured over the Sarakamysh
hollow (central Asia) from a ¯ying laboratory using a microwave radiometer at the 1.35 cm
wavelength.
Brightness temperature Retrieved brightness temperature and introduced error

measured at 1.35 cm
wavelength Method of Error Method of Error
dierential harmonic
approximation functions
(%) (%)
247.72 324.29 31 210.67 15
249.35 316.58 27 212.06 15
150.00 172.50 15 174.01 16
229.00 190.07 17 256.48 12
243.92 217.19 11 209.92 14
139.25 164.27 18 157.76 9
234.14 203.72 13 229.46 2
248.28 196.20 21 230.92 7
152.50 181.38 19 172.26 13
223.59 268.19 20 245.89 10
234.64 194.86 8 260.38 11
223.59 279.34 25 234.74 5
235.80 188.86 20 274.65 9
244.82 198.46 19 257.02 5
258.69 181.29 30 240.63 7
141.88 164.44 16 157.39 11
252.00 264.69 5 221.76 12
262.08 288.28 10 222.78 15
252.63 272.79 8 229.95 9
146.60 175.82 19 162.66 11
249.27 199.47 20 256.74 3
257.34 226.50 12 236.78 8
258.00 221.88 14 283.81 10
Minimum error 8 2
Average error 17 10
Maximum error 31 16
Hence, function jMj; C uniquely characterizes the level of consistency of

expert and empirical information. If ! 1, then we can speak about the similarity
between expert and experimental knowledge. With ! 0 these two levels of
knowledge become controversial. Actually, some optimal level of consistency opt
can be reached, if jMj 2 X and C 2 Y:
opt max jMj; C;

jMj;C
where X and Y are the multitudes of possible structures and complexities.

In practice, the construction of function is connected with considerable limita-
tions in the sphere of knowledge to which the subject of investigation refers. In the
sphere of remote monitoring these limitations are explained by the presence of
unsolved problems when optimizing the choice of the most informative wavelengths
as well as by the absence of ecient methods to study non-stationary processes.
Therefore, in the ®eld of remote monitoring, both expert and empirical knowledge
is combined at the level needed to study partial models for transition to a comparative
analysis by criterion .
Study of the environment by radiophysical methods is a well-known ®eld in
remote monitoring. Here diculties appear in estimating the accuracy of solutions
to problems of identi®cation, data recovery, and calculation of statistical character-
istics. One of the important problems is to increase the accuracy of calculations of the
spectral density of a random process, information about which is needed to reveal
homogeneous patterns along the route of satellite or aircraft monitoring. First, the
sectors of stationarity are revealed in the broad sense (i.e., in which average,
dispersion, and correlation coecients behave following the law of unbiasedness
and independence). For example, in the work of Borodin and Gordina (1983) an
algorithm was proposed to partition the successions of measurements made by
radiophysical methods into sections of quasi-stationarity, which provides an auto-
mated regime when estimating dierences between empirical and model levels of
knowledge. As shown in Bukatova et al. (1991), there is a mechanism for collection
and analysis of data without the procedure of partition of measurements into quasi-
stationary sections. This mechanism is connected with the use of evolutionary model
synthesis by selecting structures whose subject orientation cannot be determined
beforehand. Finally, a future approach to development of statistical interpolation
methods can be proposed in the form of construction of an empirical model for a
stochastic variable
zx m "x;
where m is the constituent determined; " is a random component; and x is a route

variable. The essence of the method consists in presenting the zx value at point
x x0 as a linear combination
X
N
z~x0 j zxj ;
j1
where j are coecients independent of the measurement procedure satisfying the

X
N
condition j 1 and determined by minimization of the respective discrepancy.
j1
In the microwave monitoring of the environment, when identifying objects,

average values of brightness temperature often turn out to be important. The use
of the Behrens±Fisher criteria to compare averages in two quasi-stationary zones
of the variable x enablesus to identify natural objects according to standards
(Pagurova, 1968; Dong, 2004). Let fT1; j g and fT2; j g be mutually independent
random quantities following the normal distribution with unknown parameters
(a1 ; 1 ) and (a2 ; 2 ), respectively. Such a criterion to check the hypothesis
a1 a2 is based on estimation of the quantity
d
v q ;
b1 s 21 b2 s 22
where
1X X
n ni
i
1 1
d T1 T2 ; Ti T ; bi ; s 2i Ti;k Ti;k 2 :
ni k1 i;k ni ni 1 k1
The diversity of models fMk g used in microwave monitoring is determined by the

body of knowledge that has built up about microwave propagation in the environ-
ment and by various approaches to the choice of expert, empirical, and theoretical
models. In particular, in the way they interpret microwave measurements of soil
moisture, these models vary in accordance with the scenario of changes in the
dielectric constant of soil with depth (Shutko, 1987; Mkrtchyan, 1982). Measurement
of water surface temperature can eciently be made using the method of module
regulation (Kazansky and Filatov, 1987). The theoretical basis for modeling land
vegetation re¯ectivity consists of two specially introduced indices SR aN =aV and
ND aN aV =aN aV , where aN ; aV are surface re¯ectivity in the near-IR and
visible wavelengths, respectively.
To verify the agreement between expert and empirical information, let us take a
data sample Y fyi ; xi j ; i 1; . . . ; r; j 1; . . . ; ng, where y is a function, and fxj g
are arguments. Let us determine by 'm the in¯uence of argument xm on y and range
the arguments so that 'm1 > 'm2 > > 'mn . Let us further suppose two
models y1 and y2 are "-close, as long as according to quality criterion inequality
jy1 y2 j < " is valid. The in¯uence of arguments m1 and m2 is assumed to be
- equivalent if j'm1 'm2 j < .
Let us consider the class of polynomial models:
X
m X
m X
m
y a0 ai x i bi j xi xj ci1 ;...;is xi1 ;...;is
i1 i; j1 i1 ;...;is
Let us introduce a symmetric binary ratio R 2 O, following the rule y1 ; y2 2 R only
when structures y1 and y2 dier in one argument, to set of pairs of every possible
polynomial model O . During microwave experiments a search of R is carried out by

establishing correlations between the parameters of the object under study. Shifting
by pairs in space R simpli®es the search for an optimal model, though there is a
chance of missing the best model.
5.4 MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF NATURAL DISASTERS
5.4.1 Ecodynamics and natural disasters

As civilization continues to develop, the problems of forecasting future environment
changes and relevant changes in people's living conditions have become most impor-
tant. The main problem of interest is the origin and propagation of dangerous natural
phenomena which lead to the loss of life and cause serious economic damage. Natural
anomalies of dierent spatiotemporal scales are known to have played an important
role in the evolution of nature as mechanisms for natural system regulation.
Natural disasters can be classi®ed in dierent categories. Large-scale disasters
include environmental phenomena that are responsible for the death of thousands of
people, the destruction of their homes, and the accompanying economic damage to a
given region. Hence, the scale of natural disasters depends on the level of economic
development of the region in question, which determines the degree of protection
from natural disasters. Therefore, studies of phenomena connected with natural
catastrophes should be followed by analysis of the poverty level of the given region.
The results of studies accumulated during the last 25 years show that in developing
countries the scale of losses from natural catastrophes is much larger than in econom-
ically developed regions. Bearing in mind that during the last decade the number and
scale of natural disasters has substantially increased, we should expect more of the
same in the near future. Therefore, the forecast of and warning about potential crises
on a global scale should be a subject of concern for all countries, independent of their
economic development.
At present theories about environmental catastrophes and the analysis of risks
are well developed (Potapov et al., 2006). Using them to describe events and processes
in the actual environment requires a study of the methods of system analysis to
synthesize a global model of the NSS by means of spaceborne monitoring. Solution
of the relevant problems is the subject matter of ecoinformatics, which entails
combination of analytically simple semi-empirical and complex non-linear models
of ecosystems in the latest global databases. Many international and national pro-
grams on environmental problems and space-oriented studies have recently raised the
level of thematic coordination in order to reach the necessary degree of eciency.
For instance, this is true of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) and Earth Observing
System (EOS) programs, within which the most ecient information and technical
means of assessment and prediction of the dynamics of the NSS have been
concentrated.
The development of constructive methods to predict natural catastrophes
requires solution of some problems.
Sec. 5.4] 5.4 Monitoring and prediction of natural disasters 327
. Adaptation of ecoinformatics methods to the problem of diagnostics and

prediction of natural catastrophes in all their variety and at all scales.
. Determination of the statistical characteristics of natural catastrophes in their
historical aspect, selecting categories and determining spatiotemporal scales of
catastrophic changes in habitats. Analysis of the history of disasters is important
for understanding the present dependences of crises both in nature and in society.
The statistical characteristics of the dynamics of natural disasters enable
formulation of the basis for the mathematical theory of catastrophes and to
determine top-priority directions of studies.
. Development of the concept and synthesis of the model of survival to assess the
eect of natural disasters on human habitat.
. Study of the laws of interaction between various elements and processes in the
global NSS in correlation with such notions as the biological complexity of
ecosystems (biocomplexity), considering it as a function of biological, physical,
chemical, social, and behavioral interactions between environmental subsystems
including living organisms and their communities. The notion of biocomplexity is
connected with the laws of biospheric functioning and consists of all ecosystems
and natural-economic systems at dierent scales, from local to global. In this
connection, it is necessary to give a combined formalized description of
biological, geochemical, geophysical, and anthropogenic factors and processes
taking place at a given level of the spatiotemporal hierarchy of units and scales.
It is also important to assess the possibilities of using various indicators of an
approaching natural catastrophe (e.g., biocomplexity).
. Study of relationships between vital activity, biocomplexity, and evolution of the
NSS using global modeling technology. Development of units of the global
model to describe the laws and trends in the environment that lead to the
appearance of stress situations brought on by human economic or political
activity.
. Consideration of demographic premises for the origin of natural disasters,
and determination of mechanisms that govern the environment and hinder
realization of these premises.
. Assessment of the information content from the current technical means of
collecting data on the state of NSS subsystems and available global databases
for their successful allocation in solving the problems of assessing conditions
conducive to stress situations in the environment.
The role of natural disasters in the formation of global trends in the environment
has been studied inadequately to make realistic predictions of possible consequences
(e.g., for the regulation of biogeochemical cycles). As can be seen from the scheme in
Figure 5.3, for an accurate estimation of CO2 ¯uxes at the atmosphere±ocean
boundary, it is necessary to have a great deal of data on the whole World Ocean
basin. In the zones of tropical hurricanes, the characteristics of ocean ecosystems
change drastically. It is also known that tropical hurricanes strongly aect hydro-
logical cycle parameters over large territories, causing ¯oods and facilitating the
transport of chemical compounds over large distances. Avery et al. (2004) studied
Figure 5.3. Schematic representation of the ocean biological pump. From Usbeck (1999).
the impact of hurricanes on the hydrological cycle in North Carolina and evaluated
the respective changes in the river run-o of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the
World Ocean. In particular, it was shown that an increase in biologically acceptable
DOC by 3%±9% on average over 1±2 days after the hurricane leads to a short-term
leap in productivity of the water basin's ecosystem as a direct result of the hurricane.
Hanshaw et al. (2006) speci®ed these estimates having analyzed the biological
response of the ocean ecosystem to the impact of a hurricane and showed that the
surface concentration of chlorophyll grows after the hurricane in proportion to its
intensity, but this increase does not markedly aect the integral productivity of the
ecosystem. This conclusion is explained by the fact that along the path of its move-
ment the hurricane either intensi®es existing upwellings or initiates new transient
upwellings, which leads to enriching the ocean domain with biogenic salts. However,
this deviation vanishes rapidly because of the return of the ocean domain to a stable
state with pre-hurricane characteristics. Nevertheless, as Smitha et al. (2006) showed,
using the Bay of Bengal as an example, primary productivity increases up to
3,800 mgC m 2 da 1 .
On the whole, the problem of assessing the role of hurricanes in the formation of
gas exchange at the atmosphere±ocean boundary remains to be studied. Clearly, in
the tropical low-productive zone of the World Ocean, where atmospheric CO2
assimilation is negligibly small, getting reliable estimates of the increase in ecosystem
productivity during the passage of tropical hurricanes will make it possible to specify
the role of the World Ocean in regulating climate.
5.4.2 Natural disaster as a dynamic category of environmental phenomena

Walker (2003) justly noted that the notion of natural catastrophe is rather vague, and
its de®nition depends on many factors. Grigoryev and Kondratyev (2001a, b) de®ne a
natural catastrophe as an `èxtreme and calamitous situation in the vital activity of
population caused by substantial unfavorable changes in the environment'' or as
`àbrupt changes in the system as its sudden response to smooth changes of external
conditions.'' The number of such critical situations in the environment grows.
At present, natural catastrophes consist of ¯oods, droughts, hurricanes, storms,
tornadoes, tsunami, volcanic eruptions, landslides, mud¯ows, snow avalanches,
earthquakes, forest ®res, dust storms, severe frosts, heat waves, locust invasions,
and many other natural phenomena (Kondratyev et al., 2002b). In future, this list
is likely to widen with the advent of new types of natural catastrophes, such as
collisions with cosmic bodies and those caused by man (i.e., bio-terrorism, nuclear
catastrophes), abrupt change in the Earth's magnetic ®eld, plague, and others. There-
fore, it is important to develop ecient quantitative technologies and criteria to give
early warning with high reliability of a dangerous catastrophic natural phenomenon.
The notion of natural catastrophe is associated by many authors with the notion
of ecological safety, a term coined for the necessity of assessing the danger for the
population of a given territory of injury to health, buildings, or property as a result of
changes in environmental parameters. These changes can be caused by ¯uctuations in
natural processes connected with the changing ecological situation, epidemics, or
natural disaster. In the latter case, danger appears to be a response of nature to
human activity. For instance, such factors as reforestation and change in the vegeta-
tion cover amplify the instability in the region of these impacts. These factors have
caused land resource degradation and increased the destruction of the natural en-
vironment at the expense of water ¯ows. Field and Raupach (2004) and Abrahamson
(1989) explain changes in the laws of natural catastrophe occurrence as a consequence
of the growth of instability in the carbon±climate±human system. According to Field
et al. (2002), this instability is likely to increase substantially in the next two decades
due to changes in many characteristics of World Ocean ecosystems. Analyzing the
history of various large-scale catastrophes, Milne (2004) gives a pessimistic prognosis
for the fate of humankind, using emotive words like ``doomsday''.
In general, the threat of ecological danger in any territory stems from deviation
from environmental parameters beyond limits where in the course of time living
organisms mutate (i.e., change in a way that does not correspond to the natural
process of evolution). As a matter a fact, the notion of `ècological danger'' or
`ècological safety'' is connected with the notion of stability, vital activity, and
integrity of the biosphere and its elements. Moreover, the NSS, being a self-
organizing and self-structuring system that does so according to the laws of
evolution, creates within itself ecological niches, the acceptability of which for the
population of a given territory is determined, as a rule, by national criteria (ambient
air standard, religious dogmas, national traditions, etc.).
When considering the prospects for life on Earth, we can only proceed from
human assessment of the level of environmental degradation. In due course local and
regional environmental change will develop into global ones. The amplitude of these
changes is determined by mechanisms of NSS functioning. Humankind is increas-
ingly deviating from this optimality in the way it interacts with surrounding inert,
abiotic, and biotic components of the environment. But, at the same time, humankind
as an NSS element is attempting to understand the character of large-scale relation-
ships with nature, directing the eorts of many sciences at this, and studying the
cause-and-eect relations in this system.
5.4.3 Search for and detection of natural catastrophes

Let the approach of the moment of a natural disaster be characterized by vector fxi g
that gets into some cluster of multi-dimensional phase space Xi j . In other words,
converting our verbal portrait to quantitative estimation of this process, we introduce
a generalized characteristic It of a natural disaster and identify it by calibrated scale
X, for which we postulate the presence of relationships of type X1 < X2 , X1 > X2 , or
X1 X2 . This means that there always exists a value of It which determines
when a natural catastrophe of a given type can be expected: X ! f X, where f is
conversion of the notion of ``natural disaster'' into a number. As a result, magnitude
jIt j determines the expected time interval before the catastrophe occurs.
Let us search for a satisfactory model to transform our verbal portrait of a
natural catastrophe into notions and indicators subject to formalized description
and transformation. With this aim in view, we select m elements of subsystems at
the lowest level in the N [ H system, the interaction between which we determine
using the matrix function A kai j k, where ai j is an indicator of the level of depen-
dence of the relationships between subsystems i and j. Then, the It parameter can be
estimated as the sum:
Xm X m
It ai j :
i1 j>i
In general, we have I I 0; a; t. For a small territory SZ with area a indicator
I is de®ned as an average value:

IO t 1= I'; ; t d' d:
';2O
The introduction of characteristic IO makes it possible to propose the following

scheme of monitoring and predicting natural disasters. Figure 5.4 demonstrates a
possible structure for a monitoring system with functions that search, predict, and
monitor a natural catastrophe. There are three levels in the system, recorder,
decision-maker, and searcher, whose units have the following functions:
(1) regular monitoring of environmental elements to accumulate data about their

state in the regime;
(2) recording of suspicious elements in the environment for which the value of
indicator IO t corresponds to the frequency of occurrence of a natural anomaly
of a given type;
Figure 5.4. Block scheme of a monitoring system to detect anomalies in the environment.
(3) formation of a dynamic series fIO tg for a suspicious element to make a statis-
tical decision about its noise or signal, and in the latter case examination of the
suspicious element by criteria of the next level of accuracy (getting vector fxi g
into the cluster, etc.);
(4) making the ®nal decision about the imminence of a natural catastrophe and
transmitting such information to the respective environmental control services;
and
(5) iterative procedure to locate an anomaly.
The eciency of such a monitoring system depends on the measuring methods

used and algorithms for observational data processing. Most important here is the
model of the environment used in parallel with the formation and statistical analysis
of series fIO tg which is then adapted to the monitoring regime according to the
scheme in Figure 5.5.
As can be seen from the criterion of an imminent natural catastrophe, the
form and behavior of IO t are special for each type of process in the environment.
One complicated problem consists in determining these forms and their respective
classi®cation. For instance, such frequent dangerous natural events as landslips and
mud¯ows have characteristic features, such as preliminarily changing relief and land-
scape, which can be successfully recorded from satellites in the optical range. This,
together with data of aerial photography and surface measurements of relief slopes,
exposure of slopes, and the state of the hydro-system, makes it possible to predict
dangerous natural events several days beforehand. However, the restricted capabil-
ities of the optical range under conditions of clouds or vegetation cover should be
broadened by introducing systems of remote sounding in the microwave region of
the electromagnetic spectrum. Then, in addition to the indicators of landslips and
mud¯ows, we can add such information parameters as soil moisture and biomass,
because an increase in soil moisture leads to landslips, while one in biomass testi®es to
the increased capability of the roots of vegetation cover to hold soil and rocks
together to prevent rockfalls. This is especially important when assessing the like-
lihood of snow/stone or snow avalanches. Compiling a catalog of these indicators for
Figure 5.5. The concept behind adaptive adjustment of the GMNSS for geoinformation
monitoring.
all possible natural disasters and making it an integral part of the information base of
the monitoring system is a necessary stage to raising its eciency.
Knowledge of the set of information indicators fx ji g for a natural catastrophe of
jth type and a priori determination of its cluster X j in the space of these indicators
makes it possible from spaceborne monitoring to calculate the rate v2 at which point
fx ji g approaches the center of X j and thus to calculate the time of catastrophe
occurrence. Other algorithms for predicting natural disasters are also possible. For
instance, a forest ®re can be predicted using the dependence of a forest's microwave
emission at dierent wavelengths on the moisture content of in¯ammable material in
the forest. Knowledge of this dependence gives a real possibility to assess the ®re risk
in the forest by taking the moisture content the of vegetation cover and upper soil
layer into account (Grankov et al., 2006; Soldatov, 2007).
Many studies have shown that the possibility exists of assessing the ®re risks of
waterlogged and boggy forests by considering the water content of vegetation cover
and the upper soil layer, using microwave sounding in the range 0.8 cm±30 cm. Multi-
channel sounding makes it possible using cluster analysis algorithms to solve the
problem of forest classi®cation according to ®re risk category. The eciency of these
methods depends on detailed simulation of the forest structure re¯ecting the state of
the canopy and tree density. Undergrowth ®res are the most dangerous and dicult
to detect. In such a case the three-layer model of the soil±trunk±canopy system used
with the ®re risk indicator I1 ; 2 Tb 1 Tb 2 =Tb 1 Tb 2 is known
to be ecient. For instance, at 1 0.8 cm and 2 3.2 cm indicator I changes
approximately from 0.25 in zones where the risk of forest ®re is absent to 0.54
in ®re zones. In zones where ®rst indicators appear of the litter catching ®re, I 0.23.
The I value depends weakly on distribution in the layers of the forest of such
in¯ammable materials as lichen, moss, grass thatch, dead pine-needles, and fallen
leaves.
Realization of this three-layer regime for decision-making about an approaching
natural disaster depends on the agreement between the spatiotemporal scales of the
monitoring system and the respective characteristics of the natural phenomenon.
Most dicult for decision-making are delayed action natural catastrophes which
Figure 5.6. Possible dynamics of Aral Sea levels (in meters with respect to the World Ocean
level) as a result of the impact of forced evaporators on the hydrological regime of the territory
of the Aral±Caspian aquageosystem beginning from 2008.
may well take place decades later. Such disasters include ozone holes, global
warming, deserti®cation, reduced biodiversity, overpopulation of lands, and others.
Solution of the basic problem of reliable prediction of the occurrence of such disasters
or undesirable regional-scale natural phenomena initiated by them using the GMNSS
has been proposed, the input data for which comprises information from constantly
updated global databases and from ongoing satellite and surface measurements.
The use of the GMNSS in a number of studies has shown that this technology
enables us not only to forecast delayed action disasters but also to propose scenarios
for their prevention. An example is the scenario for reconstruction of the water
regime of the Aral±Caspian system considered in Krapivin and Phillips (2001a).
Figure 5.6 shows the ®nal result of using the GMNSS to solve this problem. It
can be seen that by realizing the suggested irrigation of some lowlands on the eastern
coast of the Caspian Sea without subsequent anthropogenic interference can sharply
change the hydrology of the territory between the Aral and Caspian Seas. Of course,
this result is merely a demonstration of the GMNSS capability to evaluate the
consequences of realizing scenarios of the impacts on the environment. Many prob-
lems crop up here in the organization of studies, but they can be solved within the
complex scienti®c±technical program set up to monitor the zone of impact of the Aral
and Caspian Seas.
6
Multi-dimensional analysis of interactivity
between global ecodynamics and
the Arctic Basin
6.1 KEY PROBLEMS FACING ARCTIC BASIN STUDY
Recent growing attention to the Arctic's environmental problems is motivated by a

number of circumstances including
(i) the stronger sensitivity of high-latitude environments to various external

forcings;
(ii) increasing understanding of the importance of numerous interactions and
feedbacks between components of the Earth's system; and
(iii) growing need to use natural resources located at high latitudes (especially the
Arctic Shelf ).
It is fair to say that ``the Arctic system constitutes a unique and important
environment with a central role in the dynamics and evolution of the earth system''
(VoÈroÈsmarty et al., 2001).
Some important scienti®c results were pointed out in the ACIA Implementation
Plan (ACIA, 2000):
. ``There has been increased coastal erosion in the Bering Sea from storm surges
resulting from reduced sea ice.''
. ``Sea ice extent in the Arctic has decreased Arctic-wide by 0.35% per year since
1979. During summer of 1998, record reduction of sea ice coverage was observed
in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.''
. ``Sea ice thickness has also been reduced by between 1 m and 2 m in most parts of
the Arctic Ocean and the sub-Arctic seas.''
. ``Stream¯ow discharge of major Siberian rivers into the Arctic Ocean has
increased in recent years and is associated with a warmer climate and enhanced
precipitation in the river basins.''
336 Interactivity between global ecodynamics and the Arctic Basin [Ch. 6
. ``Since 1970, the Arctic Oscillation, which is a measure of the strength of the
circumpolar vortex, has strengthened. This has been found to be consistent with
temperature change in the Arctic.''
. ``There has been an increased warming of the Arctic Ocean's Atlantic layer and
an approximate 20% greater coverage of Atlantic water types.''
. ``Record low levels of ozone were measured in 2000 in the Arctic with increasing
evidence that these levels are likely to continue for at least the next 20 years.''
. `Òngoing studies indicate that the current UV levels can have a signi®cant eect
on ®sh larvae survival rates.''
. ``General warming of soils in regions with permafrost, derived primarily from
Alaskan data, has been observed over recent years.''
It was emphasized in ACIA (2000) that past assessments indicated the Arctic to
be important to global-scale processes in at least four ways.
. ``The thermohaline circulation dominated by the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas
is responsible for a considerable part of the Earth's poleward heat transport and
may also serve as a sink for CO2 . Alterations of this circulation, as have been
observed during climatic changes of the past, can aect global climate and in
particular the climate of Europe and North America.''
. ``The melting of the Arctic land ice sheets can cause sea level rise around the
world. A compilation of studies suggests that a global warming of 1 C will lead to
1 mm per year of sea-level rise from small ice caps and glaciers. The Arctic will
supply over half of this total, with an additional 0.3±0.4 mm per year contributed
from Greenland although uncertainties remain about the mass balance of the
Greenland ice sheet.''
. `Àrctic soils can act as either sinks or sources of greenhouse gases depending on
temperature and moisture changes within the Arctic. Moisture has opposing
eects on the concentrations of the two major trace gases: CH4 ¯ux declines
with soil drying while CO2 ¯ux initially increases. These changes can in¯uence
greenhouse gas warming globally.''
. `Òur current understanding of the Arctic climate system suggests that positive
feedbacks in high-latitude systems, including the snow and ice albedo eect,
amplify anthropogenically-induced atmospheric changes and that disturbances
in the circumpolar Arctic climate may substantially in¯uence global climate.''
In the context of the health of the Arctic marine environment and the normal
functioning of economically important ecosystems, Orheim (2000) asked a number of
key questions:
. ``How was the polar basin formed, where are the plate boundaries?''
. ``What has been the detailed paleo-climatic history of the high Arctic Ocean
during the last 1 million years?''
. ``Do decreases in ice extent and upper strati®cation of the ocean signal a dierent
sea ice regime?''
Sec. 6.1] 6.1 Key problems facing Arctic Basin study 337
. ``What is the stability of the sea ice cover, what are the eects of radiative
feedback in the Arctic and how do they modulate global ocean circulation?''
. ``What is the role of continental shelves in the cycling of C, N, Si and other
chemicals?''
. ``What is the productivity of the Arctic Ocean, and what is the structure and
diversity of higher trophic levels?''
. ``What are the eects of environmental change, both of climate and of pollutants
and contaminants such as the introduction of persistent organic pollutants
(POPs) into the food chain?''
Of particular interest is the dynamics of high-latitude climate. According to

Weller and Lange (1999),
``While considerable uncertainty still exists about the exact nature of the future
impacts of global climate change, there can no longer be any doubt that major
changes in the climate have occurred in recent decades in the Arctic, with visible
and measurable impacts following the climatic changes. Greater impacts are likely
in the future and while some of them will be positive, others will be detrimental to
human activities.''
Analysis of ice cores from the Arctic (Everett and Fitzharris, 2001) revealed
large-scale and rapid paleo-climate changes. Rapid warming took place 11,500
years ago, at the end of the last glacial period. The coldest parts of ice cores had
been as much as 21 C colder than the present temperature in central Greenland; and
temperatures increased by more than 10 C in a few decades. There is evidence of even
more rapid change in the precipitation pattern, rapid reorganizations of atmospheric
circulation, and periods of rapid warming during the past 20,000 years. Rapid
warming of 10 C in a few decades during the last glacial period in central Greenland
was followed by periods of slower cooling over a few centuries and then a generally
rapid return to glacial conditions. About 20 such intervals, each lasting between 500
and 2,000 years, occurred during the last glacial period.
Everett and Fitzharris (2001) emphasized that the polar systems are extremely
sensitive to variability in temperature, and several aspects of these systems will be
aected by any further climate change. The primary impacts will be on the physical
environment, including ice, permafrost, and hydrology; on biota and ecosystems,
including ®sheries and terrestrial systems; and on human activities, including social
and economic impacts on settlements, on resource extraction and transportation, and
on existing infrastructure. Scenario predictions of potential future global warming
indicate a necessity to particularly take into account various phenomena such as
thermocarst erosion in lowland areas, thawing of permafrost accompanied by hydro-
logical and climatic changes. Climate change will aect terrestrial ecological systems
through changes in permafrost as well as direct climatic changes, including changes in
precipitation, snow cover, and temperature. Terrestrial ecosystems are likely to
change from tundra to boreal forests, although vegetative changes are likely to lag
behind climatic change. Major shifts in biomass will be associated with changes in
microbiological (bacteria, algae, etc.) and insect communities (some may diminish
while others may prosper).
Everett and Fitzharris (2001) pointed out that in the recent geologic past, the
tundra was a carbon sink, but recent climatic warming in the Arctic, coupled with the
concomitant drying of the active layer and the lowering of the water table, has shifted
areas of the Arctic from sinks to sources of CO2 (the existence of such a problem is,
however, far from being proved). An important potential consequence of permafrost
thawing is the emission of methane, a greenhouse gas. The levels of another green-
house gas, tropospheric ozone, might increase due to warming of the troposphere
(Kondratyev and Varotsos, 2000).
An interesting illustration of potential future surprises due to interactions and
feedbacks was discussed by Stevenson et al. (2000) who obtained future estimates of
tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover in the context of the
impact on climate change. (It should be pointed out that studies of the contribution
of tropospheric ozone, O3T , as a greenhouse gas as well as assessments of the
potential impact of global warming on permafrost melting and methane emissions
are still at the preliminary stage of development.) Interactive simulations of climate
dynamics and O3T changes during the time period 1990±2100 for scenarios of ``high''
(A2) or ``middle'' (B2) cases of CO2 emissions resulted in tropospheric ozone radia-
tive forcing (RF) equal to 0.27(A2) W m 2 or 0.09(B2) W m 2 . However, if
climate±ozone coupling was disregarded, then relevant RF values would be equal
to 0.43 (0.22) W m 2 . With climate change included, CH4 lifetime fell by 0%±5%.
Hence, climate warming exerts a negative feedback on itself by increased destruction
of O3T and CH4 .
Three principal achievements have stimulated progress in studying the Arctic
environment in recent years (Dickson, 1999):
(i) further development of observation programs using various observation means

(including satellites and submarines);
(ii) declassi®cation of the military Soviet±American archive of ocean ``climatology''
data;
(iii) discovery of the fact that the climatic forcing in the Arctic and northern seas
in the 1990s has increased compared with that observed during the previous
century. A similar situation also took place with respect to climate dynamics
indicators such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO).
Overland and Adams (2001) pointed out that
``decadal dierences between the 1990s and 1980s in winter sea-level pressure and
300 hPa zonal winds have an Arctic-centered character with nearly equal con-
tributions from the Atlantic and Paci®c sectors. In contrast, the dierences
between positive and negative AO composites de®ned from monthly values of
Principal Components from the same period have similar magnitudes in the
Paci®c and Arctic, but have additional large NAO signature in the Atlantic
sector. Thus Arctic changes of decadal scales are more symmetric with the pole
than suggested by the standard AO index de®nition. Change point analysis of the
AO shows that a shift in value near 1989 is an alternative hypothesis to a linear
trend. Analysis of zonal and meridional winds by longitudinal sectors shows
the importance of the standing wave pattern in interpreting the AO, which
supplements the view of the AO as a simple zonal average (annular) mode.''
Thus. the Arctic Oscillation should be considered as a physical phenomenon

connected with the enhancement of circumpolar vortex and relevant mass and
temperature changes in the stratosphere.
By the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s the very strong NAO increase
resulted in powerful transport of warmer and fresher Norwegian Atlantic water to the
north of the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea. Entering the Arctic, the sub-layer of
Atlantic water was becoming thinner, warmer (by about 2 C), and increased its
horizontal extent (20%). At smaller depths, the cold haloclyne (which thermally
isolates the sea ice cover from the warm Atlantic layer located below) shifted toward
the Euro-Asiatic Basin, which resulted in substantial changes in the mass and energy
balances of the ice cover surface. This and other phenomena have been studied within
a number of recent programs (Aagard, 1998; Allison et al., 2001; Orheim, 2000). Of
particular interest is the climatic impact of polynyas1 (Holland, 2001; Lemke, 2001).
Alekseev (1998) emphasized that the Arctic is in many respects key to the global
climatic system, where the strongest natural ¯uctuations in climatic characteristics
develop. The global impact of the Arctic is primarily accomplished through the Arctic
Ocean, which is capable of changing the structure of its circulation regime under the
in¯uence of changes in freshwater and salt and heat exchange with the non-polar
parts of the global system. The desalinated upper layer and sea ice located above it
turn out to be most active components, with freshwater, heat, and salt transport
being the major processes responsible for coupling between the high-latitude environ-
ment and its lower latitude parts.
Speci®c features of the Arctic atmosphere, such as Arctic Haze and extended
cloudiness and radiation, were studied during the the First GARP (Global Atmo-
spheric Research Program) Global Experiment, FGGE (Kondratyev, 1999a, b).
Important progress has been achieved in the ®eld of Arctic climate diagnostics
(Adamenko and Kondratyev, 1999; Gillett et al., 2002; Lloyd and Fastie, 2002;
Moritz et al., 2002; Nagurny and Maistrova, 2002). The basic features of Arctic
climate dynamics have also been demonstrated, such as the strong spatiotemporal
variability of various scales. Nagurny and Maistrova (2002) showed, for instance,
that as far as interannual lower troposphere variations are concerned, before the
1980s negative anomalies prevailed, while later on, for the whole troposphere, pos-
itive temperature anomalies were typical. Total polar atmosphere energy (potential
plus internal) during the previous 40 years had not changed, however.
1
A polynya is any non-linear area of open water surrounded by sea ice. It is used as a
geographic term for areas of sea in Arctic or Antarctic regions which remain unfrozen for much
of the year.
A much more dicult situation exists in the ®eld of numerical modeling of high-
latitude climate change. It was mentioned in IPCC (2001) that current estimates of
future changes in the Arctic vary signi®cantly. Model results disagree as to both the
magnitude of changes and the regional aspects of these changes.
An important step forward in studying the Arctic environment is the Climate and
Cryosphere (CliC) Project (Allison et al., 2001). The term ``cryosphere'' describes
those portions of the Earth's surface where water is in solid form. This includes all
kinds of ice and snow and frozen ground such as permafrost. The cryosphere is an
important part of the global climate system. It is strongly in¯uenced by temperature,
solar radiation, and precipitation, and, in turn, in¯uences each of these properties.
It also has an eect on the exchange of heat and moisture between the Earth's surface
(land or sea) and the atmosphere, on clouds, on river ¯ow (hydrology), and on
atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Parts of the cryosphere are strongly in¯uenced
by changes in climate. The cryosphere may therefore act as an early indicator of both
natural and human-induced climate change.
As a core project of the World Climate Research Program, the ``Climate and
Cryosphere'' (CliC) Project encourages and promotes research into the cryosphere
and its interactions as part of the global climate system. It seeks to focus attention on
the most important issues, encourage communication between researchers with com-
mon interests in cryospheric and climate science, promote international co-operation,
and highlight the importance of this ®eld of science to policy-makers, funding
agencies, and the general public. CliC also publicizes signi®cant ®ndings regarding
the role of the cryosphere in climate, and recommends directions for future study.
CliC aims to improve understanding of the cryosphere and its interactions with
the global climate system, and to enhance the ability to use parts of the cryosphere for
detection of climate change. The scienti®c goals of CliC are to
. improve understanding of the physical processes through which the cryosphere

interacts within the climate system;
. improve the representation of cryospheric processes in climate models;
. assess and quantify the impacts and consequences of past and future climatic
variability on components of the cryosphere; and
. enhance the observation and monitoring of the cryosphere.
To attain these goals, CliC seeks to develop and coordinate national and inter-
national activities aimed at increasing the understanding of four main scienti®c
themes:
. Interactions between the atmosphere and snow and ice on the land surface.
. Interactions between glaciers and ice sheets and sea level.
. Interactions between sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere.
. Interactions of the cryosphere with the atmosphere and oceans on a global scale.
CliC encourages the use of observations, process studies, and numerical model-
ing within each of the above topic areas. In addition, CliC promotes the establish-
ment of new cryospheric monitoring programs.
The cryosphere is also considered an indicator of climate variability and change.

Allison et al. (2001) pointed out:
`Àtmosphere±snow/ice±land interactions are concerned with the role of the

terrestrial cryosphere within the climate system and with improved understanding
of the processes, and of observational and predictive capabilities applicable over a
range of time and space scales. Better understanding of the interactions and
feedback of the land/cryosphere system and their adequate parameterization
within climate and hydrological models are still needed. Speci®c issues include
the interactions and feedback of terrestrial snow and ice in the current climate and
their variability; in land surface processes; and in the hydrological cycle.
Improved knowledge is required of the amount, distribution, and variability
of solid precipitation on a regional and global scale, and its response to a changing
climate. Seasonally-frozen ground and permafrost modulate water and energy
¯uxes, and the exchange of carbon, between the land and the atmosphere. How do
changes of the seasonal thaw depth alter the land±atmosphere interaction, and
what will be the response and feedback of permafrost to changes in the climate
system? These issues require improved understanding of the processes and
improved observational and modeling capabilities that describe the terrestrial
cryosphere in the entire coupled atmosphere±land±ice±ocean climate system.
Over a considerable fraction of the high-latitude global ocean, sea ice forms a
boundary between the atmosphere and the ocean, and considerably in¯uences
their interaction. The details and consequences of the role of sea ice in the global
climate system are still poorly known. Improved knowledge is needed of the
broad-scale time-varying distributions of the physical characteristics of sea ice,
particularly ice thickness and the overlying snow-cover thickness, in both
hemispheres, and the dominant processes of ice formation, modi®cation, decay
and transport which in¯uence and determine ice thickness, composition and
distribution. We do not know how accurate present model predictions of the
sea ice responses to climate change are, since the representation of much of the
physics is incomplete in many models, and it will be necessary to improve coupled
models considerably to provide this predictive capability.
Key issues on the global scale are: understanding the direct interactions
between the cryosphere and atmosphere, correctly parametrizing the processes
involved in models, and providing improved data sets to support these activities.
In particular, improved interactive modeling of the atmosphere±cryosphere
surface energy budget and surface hydrology, including fresh-water runo, is
required.
The scienti®c strategy for a CliC project is similar in each of the areas of
interaction: a combination of measurement, observation, monitoring and anal-
ysis, ®eld process studies and modeling at a range of time and space scales. A CliC
modelling strategy must address improved parametrization in models of the direct
interactions between all components of the cryosphere, the atmosphere, and the
ocean. It will need to do this at a variety of scales from the regional to global; and
with a hierarchy of models ranging from those of individual processes to fully
coupled climate models. It will also be essential to provide the improved data sets
needed for validation of models and parametrization schemes.''
Table 6.1 characterizes the major components of the cryosphere (Allison et al.,
2001). Allison et al. (2001) said that the processes operating in the coupled
cryosphere±climate system involve three timescales: intraseasonal±interannual,
decadal±centennial, and millennial or longer. The longest timescale is addressed
through the IGBP PAGES program, although abrupt climate shifts evidenced in
ice core and ocean sediment records (Heinrich events, involving extensive deposition
of ice-rafted detritus in the North Atlantic) are also highly relevant to CliC. The other
two timescales are commensurate with WCRP interests, as manifested in ACSYS,
GEWEX, and CLIVAR. In the space domain, cryospheric processes and phenomena
need to be investigated over a wide range of scales from meters to thousands of
kilometers.
The study of cryosphere dynamics is important for many applications. Table 6.2
illustrates some applications (Allison et al., 2001).
Four overarching goals that address major concerns for the WCRP can be
identi®ed (Allison et al., 2001).
(1) To improve understanding of the physical processes and feedbacks through

which the cryosphere interacts within the climate system.
(2) To improve the representation of cryospheric processes in models to reduce
uncertainties in simulations of climate and predictions of climate change.
(3) To assess and quantify the impacts of past and future climatic variability and
change on components of the cryosphere and their consequences, particularly for
global energy and water budgets, frozen ground conditions, sea level change, and
the maintenance of polar sea ice covers.
(4) To enhance the observation and monitoring of the cryosphere in support of
process studies, model evaluation, and change detection.
Speci®c questions that help de®ne the primary tasks of CliC are:
(i) How stable is the global cryosphere?

e How well do we understand and model the key processes involved in each
cryospheric component of the climate system?
e How do we best determine the rates of change in cryospheric components?
(ii) What is the contribution of glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets to changes in global
sea level on decadal to century timescales? And how can we reduce current
uncertainties in these estimates?
(iii) What changes in frozen ground regimes can be anticipated on decadal to
century timescales that would have major socio-economic consequences,
either directly or through feedback on the climate system?
(iv) What will be the annual magnitudes, rates of change, and patterns of seasonal
redistribution in water supplies from snow-fed and ice-fed rivers under climate
changes?
Table 6.1. Areal and volumetric extent of major components of the cryosphere.
Component Area Ice volume Sea level

equivalent a
(10 6 km 2 ) (10 6 km 2 ) (m)
Land snow cover b

Northern Hemisphere
Late January 46.5 0.002
Late August 3.9
Southern Hemisphere
Late July 0.85
Early May 0.07
Sea ice
Northern Hemisphere
Late March 14.0 c 0.05
Early September 6.0 c 0.02
Southern Hemisphere
Late September 15.0 d 0.02
Late February 2.0 d 0.002
Permafrost (underlying the exposed

land surface, excluding Antarctica
and Southern Hemisphere high
mountains)
Continuous e 10.69 0.0097±0.0250 0.024±0.063
Discontinuous and sporadic 12.10 0.0017±0.0115 0.004±0.028
Continental ice and ice shelves

East Antarctica f 10.1 22.7 56.8
West Antarctica and Antarctic 2.3 3.0 7.5
Peninsula f
Greenland 1.8 2.6 6.6
Small ice caps and mountain 0.68 0.18 0.5
glaciers
Ice shelves f 1.5 0.66 Ð
a
Sea level equivalent does not equate directly with potential sea level rise, as a correction is required for
the volume of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets that are presently below sea level. The melting of
400,000 km 3 of ice is equivalent to a rise in global sea level of 1 m.
b
Snow cover includes that on land ice, but excludes snow-covered sea ice.
c
Actual ice areas, excluding open water. Ice extent ranges between approximately 7.0 and
15.4 10 6 km 2 .
d
Actual ice area excluding open water. Ice extent ranges between approximately 3.8 and 18.8 10 6 km 2 .
Southern Hemisphere sea ice is mostly seasonal and generally much thinner than Arctic sea ice.
e
Data calculated using the Digital Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions and
the GLOBE 1 km Elevation Data Set.
f
Ice sheet data include only grounded ice. Floating ice shelves, which do not affect sea level, are
considered separately.
Table 6.2. Examples of socio-economic sectors aected by changes in the cryosphere.
Socio-economic component Cryosphere factor
A. Direct eects
Loss of coastal land and population

displacement
Transportation Land ice melt contribution to sea level
Shipping Iceberg hazard; sea ice extent, thickness
Barge trac Freshwater ice season
Tundra roads Freshwater ice roads; frozen ground thaw
Road/Rail trac Freeze events; snowfall
Water resources
Consumption Snow/Glacier melt runo
Irrigation Snow/Glacier melt runo
Hydropower Snow/Glacier melt runo
Agriculture Moisture recharge extremes
Hydrocarbon and mineral resource Icebergs and sea ice; frozen ground
development duration and thickness
Wildlife population Snow cover; frozen ground and sea ice
Recreation/safety Snow cover; avalanches
B. Indirect eects
Enhanced greenhouse Thaw of clathrates
Traditional lifestyles (Arctic, sub-Arctic and Changes in sea ice and freshwater ice, snow
high mountain) cover, and frozen ground
Tourism/Local economies Loss of glaciers; shorter snow season
Insurance sector Changes in risk factor
(v) What will be the nature of changes in sea ice mass balance in both polar regions
in response to climate change?
(vi) What is the likelihood of abrupt climate changes resulting from regime
changes in ice shelf±ocean and sea ice±ocean interactions that impact oceanic
thermohaline circulation?
(vii) How do we monitor cryospheric components as indicators of change in the
climate system?
Monitoring cryosphere dynamics is a key aspect of high-latitude environmental

studies (Kondratyev et al., 1996; Kondratyev and Cracknell, 1998), especially because
of the controversial information concerning ice cover dynamics. This is particularly
true, for instance, for ice thickness observations. Holloway and Sou (2001) pointed
out that ``while the range of numerical experiments indicate modest reduction in ice
area, similarly to satellite-derived area reduction over 1979±1999, some experiments
exhibit only moderate thinning. This contradicts the rapid thinning reported from
submarine observations. Either the model results are systematically ¯awed or infer-
ences previously drawn from submarine data are misleading. Exploring a wide range
of model cases has not revealed systematic errors in model formulation. We turn to
the question of whether we have been misled by the submarine data.''
The exploration strategy for the Arctic region in a broad context of biospheric
studies was discussed in detail by Matishov (1998, 2000) and Matishov and Matishov
(2001), where the need for an ecosystem approach to studying land and marine biota
was particularly emphasized and to studying conditions of socio-economic develop-
ment in high-latitude regions. Aibulatov (2000) and Matishov and Matishov (2001)
discussed general problems of high-latitude environmental dynamics with special
emphasis on radioactive pollution as a left-over of the Cold War. Aibulatov
(2000) analyzed the principal sources of arti®cial radioisotopes in the Russian Arctic
seas such as atomic explosions at Novaya Zemlya, the global radionuclide back-
ground as a result of worldwide nuclear tests, Russian chemical and mining plants,
the Chernobyl accident, West European radiochemical plants, solid and liquid radio-
active waste dumping in the Barents and Kara Seas, the Northern Military Marine
and its bases, atomic submarine construction and maintenance facilities, and Atom-
¯ot (the atomic ¯eet) of the Murmansk Shipping Company.
Studying the distribution of 137 Cs, 90 Sr, and 239;240 Pu in the water masses of
the North, Norwegian, Barents, Kara, White and Laptev Seas has resulted in the
following conclusions (Aibulatov, 2000).
(1) The general level of radioactive contamination of the waters of Arctic seas,
except for several local areas, is characterized at the present time by little
dierence in comparison with the background level (6 Bq/kg).
(2) Radioactive pollution of the water in the North and Norwegian Seas is entirely
due to emissions from radiochemical plants located in Western Europe.
(3) The contamination of water in the Barents, White, Kara, and Laptev Seas is due
to both local (Russian) sources and West European plants.
(4) Field observations in the Kara Sea in 1992±1995 have resulted in the conclusion
that there have been no substantial emissions from radioactive burial sites in the
area.
(5) The contribution of Ob 0 and Yenisey River runo to overall radioactive trans-
port is not signi®cant at the present time, except during extremely heavy ¯oods,
which happen very rarely.
(6) Compared with the open water of the Arctic Ocean, the shelf seas of the Russian
Arctic are more heavily contaminated.
Aibulatov (2000) pointed out that, judging from the 137 Cs distribution patterns in
the Kara Sea, it becomes evident that the Yenisey and Ob Rivers (less evident,
however, in the latter case) should be considered as transport channels for inputs
of technogenic radionuclides to Arctic Ocean water. There are radioactive sources in

the ocean as well. The 137 Cs activity level reached its maximum in 1984 and was equal
to 245 Bq/kg (in the open sea); during the 1990s (1993) this level was found to be
equal to 100 Bq/kg (in the Yenisey estuary).
Arctic fjords have been classi®ed into categories of comparatively clean, con-
taminated, heavily contaminated, and potentially contaminated. Contaminated areas
include, for instance, Kola Gulf and, probably, all the fjords of the northern Kola
Peninsula west of Murmansk. The content of radionuclides in phytobenthos, in the
coastal zone east of Murmansk, is low. Evidently, there has not recently been any
serious radionuclide penetration into this area. The low gamma-nuclide level
(1 Bq/kg±3 Bq/kg) is typical for the zoobenthos of the Barents Sea. This is also true
for the Kara Sea.
The impact of all the sources of radioactivity in the zone of the Arctic coast on
the local population has not been assessed reliably enough. It was particularly
dicult to separate the natural and anthropogenic components of such an impact.
Aibulatov (2000) discussed future research into Russian Arctic radioactive pollution,
including
. Development of a coordinated Russian Arctic Sea radioactivity ecological

monitoring program.
. Assessments of the impacts of dierent radioactive sources on contamination of
the Arctic marine environment including water basins, land, and atmosphere.
. Studies of the detailed spatiotemporal variability of various long-lived techno-
genic radionuclides in bottom sediments.
. A detailed examination of all Novaya Zemlya fjords in connection with the
dumping of radioactive waste.
. Research of the impact of radioactive pollution on the dynamics of the Arctic
marine ecosystem.
. Studying the medical aspects of environmental pollution in the Arctic.
The fundamental study of radioactivity in Arctic and sub-Arctic marine

ecosystems was undertaken by Matishov and Matishov (2001), which resulted in
substantiation of a new branch of science: radiational ecological oceanology.
Investigations were conducted into the level of arti®cial radionuclide concentration
in both the environment and biota of bays and inlets (the Kola, the Chernaya, the
West Litsa), where radioactively dangerous objects are located. In this context, a
classi®cation was suggested for coastal areas (bays, gulfs, fjords) in accordance with
contamination levels for bottom sediments. The discovery of a bio®lter in both the
pelagic zone and the coastal zone during the processes of self-cleaning of water
reservoirs and transport of radionuclides from water to bottom sediments is of major
importance. For the ®rst time the levels of 137 Cs, 90 Sr, and 239;240 Pu concentrations
for dierent types and populations of sea organisms have been measured. In addition,
migrations of radioisotopes along the trophic chains (from macrophytes and plank-
ton to zoobenthos, ®sh, birds, seals, and whales) were studied. The assessments of
comparative contributions of global, regional, and local sources of radioactive
environmental contamination since the time of nuclear tests up to the present day
were analyzed and used as a source of information for environmental prediction.
An important optimistic conclusion concerning the consequences of potential
accidents is that for all prescribed scenarios of radioactive emissions, it is highly
improbable that large-scale contamination of the Arctic Ocean will take place with
ruinous impacts on marine bioresources. High biological assimilation capacity in
combination with speci®c features of hydrodynamic and other processes is expected
to serve as a barrier against dangerous pollution of the Arctic Ocean.
Kalabin (2000) accomplished a study of the environmental dynamics and
industrial potential of the Murmansk region, the most urbanized and industrially
developed trans-polar region on the planet. Under these conditions, certain features
of environmental dynamics are aected by increased anthropogenic impacts. In this
context, Kalabin (2000) analyzed critical environmental loads for some of the north-
ern ecosystems and emphasized the need to investigate their assimilation (buer)
capacity as a principal aspect for the sustainable functioning of natural systems.
The solution to regional problems of sustainable development requires a careful
analysis of the interaction between ecodynamics and socio-economic development.
The progress achieved in studying Arctic environment variability is due to the
accomplishment of a number of international research programs. Of particular
importance is the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) project set up in 1991 by
the WCRP as a practicable program for the next decade to assess the role of the
Arctic in the global climate. Five areas were emphasized:
(1) ocean circulation;
(2) sea ice climatology;
(3) the Arctic atmosphere;
(4) the hydrological cycle; and
(5) modeling.
The scienti®c goals of ACSYS, which started its main observational phase in
January 1994 and will continue for a 10-year period, includes three main objectives
(ACSYS, 1994):
(1) understanding the interaction between Arctic Ocean circulation, ice cover, and
the hydrological cycle;
(2) initiating long-term climate research and monitoring programs for the Arctic;
and
(3) providing a scienti®c basis for accurate representation of Arctic processes in
global climate models.
The Arctic Ocean Circulation Program of ACSYS consists of four components:
(1) the Arctic Ocean Hydrographic Survey, to build up a high-quality hydrographic
database that is representative of the Arctic Ocean;
(2) Arctic Ocean Shelf Studies, which are aimed at understanding how shelf
processes partition saltwater and freshwater components and at de®ning the
dynamics and thermodynamics of shelf waters as well as other processes;
(3) the Arctic Ocean Variability Project, designed to assess variability in the circula-
tion and density structure of the Arctic Ocean; and
(4) the Historical Arctic Ocean Climate Database Project, aimed at establishing a
universally available digital hydrographic database for the Arctic Ocean for
analysis of climate-related processes and variability, and to provide a data set
suitable for initialization and veri®cation of Arctic climate and circulation
models.
The ACSYS sea ice program includes three main components:
(1) establishing an Arctic Basin-wide sea ice climatology database;

(2) monitoring the export of sea ice through the Fram Strait; and
(3) Arctic sea ice process studies.
One of the main tasks of the ACSYS Arctic sea ice program is to establish the
climatology of ice thickness and ice velocity. Data about this will be supplied by the
WCRP Arctic Ice Thickness Project, the International Arctic Buoy Program, sonar
pro®ling from naval submarines and unmanned vehicles, airborne oceanographic
lidar, and polar satellites carrying appropriate instruments.
The Arctic atmosphere provides the dynamic and thermodynamic forcing
underlying the circulation of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice. Key directions of research
include such problems as cloud±radiation interaction, air±sea interaction in the
presence of ice cover (impacts of polynyas and leads are of special interest), Arctic
haze, etc.
The primary ACSYS eorts within the Hydrological Cycles project in the Arctic
region are aimed at
(1) the documentation and intercomparison of solid precipitation measurement

procedures used in high latitudes; and
(2) the development of methodologies for determining areal (regional) distributions
of precipitation from station data.
There are two relevant data-archiving eorts: the Arctic Precipitation Data
Archive (APDA) and Arctic Run-o Data Base (ARDB).
The principal purpose of the ACSYS Modeling Program is the simulation of
climate variation in polar regions which arise from the interaction between
atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean.
Apart from these ACSYS projects, a number of new research programs have
been developed, such as the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH),
which is an interdisciplinary, multi-scale program dedicated to understanding the
complex of interrelated changes that have been observed in the Arctic environment in
the past few decades (Morison, 2001; Morison and Calder, 2001). SEARCH is
envisioned as a long-term eort of observations, modeling, process studies, and
applications with emphasis on ®ve major thematic areas:
. human society;
. marine/terrestrial biosphere;
. atmosphere and cryosphere;
. ocean, and
. integrated projects/models/assessment.
The Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program (ARCUS, 1998a, b) is an inter-
disciplinary program with the principal goals of (1) understanding the physical,
geological, chemical, biological, and sociocultural processes of the Arctic system that
interact with the global system and thus contribute to or are in¯uenced by global
change, in order to (2) advance the scienti®c basis for predicting environmental
change on a seasonal to centennial timescale, and for formulating policy options
in response to the anticipated impacts of global change on humans and societal
support systems. The following four scienti®c thrusts are considered the central aims
of ARCSS:
. to understand the global and regional impacts of the Arctic climate system and its
variability;
. to determine the role of the Arctic in global biogeochemical cycling;
. to identify global change impacts on the structure and stability of Arctic
ecosystems; and
. to establish the links between environmental change and human activity.
ARCSS has four linked ongoing components: Ocean/Atmosphere/Ice Inter-
actions (OAII); Land/Atmosphere/Ice Interaction (LAII); Paleoenvironmental
Studies, which include the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) and Paleoclimates
of Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE); Synthesis, Integration, and Modeling Studies
(SIMS), and Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC). Aagard (1998)
discussed basic problems by taking a multidisciplinary look at the Arctic Ocean,
including physical and chemical studies, biological studies, contaminant studies,
measurement of the properties and variability of the ice cover and of the surface
radiation budget, studies of atmospheric chemistry, and geological observations.
LAII research has three main goals:
(1) to estimate important ¯uxes in the region, including the amount of carbon
dioxide and methane reaching the atmosphere, the amount of river water
reaching the Arctic Ocean, and the radiative ¯ux back to the atmosphere;
(2) to predict how possible changes in the Arctic energy balance, temperature, and
precipitation will lead to feedback aecting large areas; this incorporates changes
in water budget, duration of snow cover, extent of permafrost, and soil warming,
wetting, and drying; and
(3) to predict how the land and freshwater biotic communities of the Arctic will
change, and how this change will aect future ecosystem structure and function.
A major LAII research project is the Flux Study, whose principal purpose is a
regional estimate of the present and future movement of material between the land,
atmosphere, and ocean in the Kuparuk River basin in northern Alaska.
Of the 19 LAII projects 3 are part of the International Tundra Experiment

(ITEX), which looks at the response of plant communities to climate change. Three
others are concerned with atmosphere processes, including weather patterns aecting
snowmelt, Arctic-wide temperature trends, and water vapor over the Arctic and its
relationship with atmospheric circulation and surface conditions. Another project
deals with the response of birds to climate and sea level change at river deltas, and yet
another studies the balance and recent volume changes of McCall Glacier in the
Brooks Range.
Synthesis, integration, and modeling studies are intended to foster linkages
and system-level understanding. Research on both the past and contemporary
relationship between humans and global climate change is thought to be critical to
understanding the consequences of global change in the Arctic.
There are a number of ARCSS data projects that provide CDs. They include the
LAII Flux Study Alaska North Slope (data sampler CD); OAII Northeast Water
(NEW) Polynya project CD; Arctic solar and terrestrial radiation CD, etc.
A list of major OAII components includes the joint U.S./Japan Cruise, the
Western Arctic Mooring project, and the Northeast Water Polynya project (men-
tioned above). Among other OAII projects the most notable are the U.S./Canada
Arctic Ocean Section and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA)
project.
An outstanding feat was accomplished in 1994 within the Canada/U.S. 1994
Arctic Ocean Section when two icebreakers entered the ice in the northern Chukchi
Sea on July 26, 1994, reached the North Pole on August 22, and left the ice northwest
of Spitsbergen on August 30, thereby completing the ®rst crossing of the Arctic
Ocean by surface vessels. This voyage greatly altered our understanding of biological
productivity, the food web, ocean circulation and thermal structure, and the role of
clouds in the summer radiation balance, as well as the extent of contamination and
spreading pathways of radionuclides and chlorinated organics, and the extent and
eects of sediment transport by sea ice.
In connection with the SHEBA project, the U.S. Department of Energy's
Atmosphere Radiation Measurement (ARM) program indicated its intention to
develop a Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) facility on the North Slope of
Alaska. The principal focus of this program will be on atmospheric radiative trans-
port, especially as modi®ed by clouds (such transport impacts the growth and decay
of sea ice), as well as testing, validation, and comparison of radiation transfer models
in both the ice pack and Arctic coastal environment.
Another important project is the Russian±American Initiative on Shelf±Land
Environments in the Arctic (RAISE) with the principal goal of facilitating ship-based
research in the Russian Arctic (Cooper and Romanovsky, 2001). Earlier relevant
land-based research projects under the RAISE umbrella included studies of
. organic material and nutrient ¯uxes from Russian rivers;

. seasonal ¯ooding dynamics along rivers; and
. reconstruction of the late Pleistocene glacial and sea level history of Wrangel
Island.
New scienti®c topics in the near-shore waters of the Russian continental shelf will
include a broad range of studies: from the biogeochemical fate of organic material
contributed to the Arctic Ocean by shoreline erosion and river run-o to the social
and biological impacts of changes in sea ice distribution.
The Western Arctic Shelf±Basin Interactions (SBI) project, sponsored by the
ARCSS Program and the U.S. Oce of Naval Research, is investigating the Arctic
marine ecosystem to improve our capacity to predict environmental change. The SBI
Phase II Field Implementation Plan (2002±2006) (Grebmeier et al., 2001) focuses on
three research topics in the core study area:
. northward ¯uxes of water and bioactive elements through the Bering Strait input
region;
. seasonal and spatial variability in the prediction and recycling of biogenic matter
on the shelf slope area; and
. temporal and spatial variability of exchanges across the shelf slope region into
the Canada Basin.
A meeting of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) identi®ed the

following four science priorities:
(1) Arctic processes relevant to global systems;

(2) eects of global change on the Arctic and its peoples;
(3) natural processes within the Arctic; and
(4) sustainable development in the Arctic.
The following areas in Arctic global change research were considered the most
signi®cant:
(1) terrestrial ecosystem;

(2) mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets;
(3) regional cumulative impacts; and
(4) human dimensions.
An important aspect of studying high-latitude environmental dynamics is

assessment of the impact of potential anthropogenic climate warming. In this context
Frederick (1994) formulated the key issues to be considered when integrating
assessments of the impact of climate change on natural resources. Speci®c project
objectives include
(1) characterizing the current state of natural science and socio-economic modeling
of the impacts of climate change and current climate variability on forests,
grassland, and water;
(2) identifying how current impact assessments can be used and how to undertake
such assessments;
(3) identifying impediments to linking biophysical and socio-economic models as

integrated assessments for policy purposes; and
(4) recommending research activities that will improve the state of the art and
remove impediments to model integration.
The following questions need to be answered:
. How will the overall system (physical±biological±economic) respond to various

imposed stresses?
. What eect(s) do uncertainties in the component models give to overall system
response uncertainty?
. Is society made more vulnerable to extreme natural events either by changing
those events or by reducing the human ability to respond with corrective action?
. How likely is it that the consequences of climate change will be severe or
catastrophic?
. What is at risk and when is it at risk?
. What are the likely impacts on the landscape and the hydrological system?
. How might the boundary conditions and the overall productivity of forests,
grassland, and other rangeland be aected?
. How might increasing carbon dioxide levels aect crops and food supplies for
humans, livestock, and wildlife?
. What are the socio-economic consequences of these physical and biological
changes?
. What are the likely consequences for ecosystems of mitigation actions?
. Can the costs associated with climate change be reduced through natural
adaptation of ecosystems or policy-initiated adaptation?
Frederick (1994) emphasized that the accumulated results of many regional and
local climate impact assessments may help provide informed answers to these ques-
tions. Nevertheless, the uncertainties surrounding both the nature and the impacts of
any future climate change are likely to remain very large, precluding precise estimates
of the net bene®ts associated with alternative policy responses. Even if the range of
uncertainty were diminished, it might still be dicult to justify speci®c measures on
narrow economic grounds because (as noted above) the impacts on natural resource
systems are apt to be poorly re¯ected in standard bene®t±cost analysis.
Mendelsohn and Rosenberg (1994) asked the following questions regarding
global-warming eects on ecological and water resources:
. Do changes in ecosystems provide important feedbacks to the natural carbon,

nitrogen, and methane cycles? For example, will the natural sinks or emitters be
aected by changing precipitation, temperature, and CO2 levels?
. What are the appropriate output measures of ecosystem component models?
What are the ecological eects of climate change that policy analysts use to
determine the importance of ecosystem change?
. What climate change±driven shifts in ecosystem boundaries can be predicted?
. Will these eects be subtle and small or large and dramatic and over what time
frame and spatial dimensions?
. Will climate change cause a change in the productivity of valuable market or
non-market species? For example, to what extent will some forests grow more
quickly or more slowly. Will non-market species, such as bear, elk, and bald
eagles, be more or less plentiful?
. What species could be lost with rapid climate change? How do vulnerable species
break down by type and geographic distribution? How should conservation
policies adapt to a world requiring change?
. How are ecosystems likely to change as the climate evolves over time? Will there
be a large increase in early succession species and where?
. How will average ¯ows in rivers change with greenhouse warming? How will
these ¯ows change over seasons? Will the probabilities of catastrophic events
change?
. What values do people assign to changes in ecosystems by climate change? Which
changes are important and which are minor? Can a value be assigned to non-use?
. How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability of losing
speci®c species? If dierent scenarios favor dierent species, how should society
trade between these outcomes?
. What impact does ecosystem change have on the economy? For example, how
will climate change aect grazing, commercial ®shing, timber, or commercial
tourism?
Goldman (1999) suggested the following priority program areas and relevant
projects:
(a) Impacts of global change on the Arctic region and its peoples:
± regional cumulative impacts
± eects of increased UV radiation.
(b) Arctic processes of relevance to global systems:
± mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets
± terrestrial ecosystems and feedback on climate change.
(c) Natural processes within the Arctic:
± Arctic marine/coastal/riverine systems
± disturbance and recovery of terrestrial ecosystems.
(d) Sustainable development in the Arctic:
± sustainable use of living resources
± dynamics of Arctic populations and ecosystems
± environmental and social impacts of industrial development.
Future priorities of the ARCSS include the following research questions

(ARCUS, 1998a, b): How will the Arctic climate change over the next 50 to 100
years? How will human activities interact with future global change to aect the
sustainability of natural ecosystems and human societies? How will changes in Arctic
biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks aect Arctic and global systems? How will
changes in Arctic hydrological cycles and feedbacks aect Arctic and global systems?
Are predicted changes in the Arctic detectable?
Important perspectives are connected with the paleo-environmental studies by
the Paleoenvironmental Arctic Science (PARCS) community (MacDonald et al.,
2001) which have the principal aim of answering the question: To what extent do
recent observations of climate change in the Arctic re¯ect natural climate cycles?
Relevant major topics include:
. the Medieval Warm Period (approximately ad 1000±1400) and Little Ice Age
(approximately ad 1400±1850);
. high-amplitude Holocene climate cycles; and
. the possible connection between the onset of neoglacial (a mid-Holocene cooling,
particularly evident at high northern latitudes) and shifts in the frequency and
amplitude of such climate cycles.
According to the PARCS community, there are very warm past scenarios that
can serve as analogs for future climate warming:
. the early Holocene, when the Arctic experienced high summer insolation
anomalies; and
. the last interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5), which appears as a very
strong warming in the paleorecord approximately 125,000 years ago.
Key topics to investigate in relation to these periods are
. feedbacks and non-linear changes (surprises) as consequences of strong warming,

particularly the role of sea ice, ice sheets, and land surface cover; and
. implications of strong warming for Arctic and global carbon budgets.
To summarize, despite the many recent Arctic environmental programs, it must

be emphasized that relevant information cannot be considered exhaustive (IASC,
2001). An obvious conclusion is that the number of programs is too great. There is a
clear need for better co-ordination of all ongoing eorts and their ``regularization''.
VoÈroÈsmarty et al. (2001) are right in their conclusion that
`ùnderstanding the full dimension of arctic change is a fundamental challenge to

the scienti®c community over the coming decades and will require a major new
eort at interdisciplinary synthesis. It also requires an unprecedented degree of
international cooperation.''
Undoubtedly, there is an urgent need for a Second International Polar Year.

Sec. 6.2] 6.2 The Arctic Basin and its role in global changes 355
6.2 THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ITS ROLE IN GLOBAL CHANGES
The Arctic Basin plays a special role in the formation of global processes in the
environment, determining numerous feedbacks in the Earth's climate system.
Decreased temperatures, the high level of atmospheric circulation, and the presence
of large ice-covered water bodies, all this distinguishes high latitudes from other
latitudes of the globe.
The intensive development of the northern territories of Russia, Canada, the
U.S.A., and the Scandinavian countries has led to a considerable change in the
natural conditions of these regions. Development of the oil and gas industry in
the Yamal Peninsula, Taymyr Island, and in northwestern Siberia, and coal mining
and gold mining in Yakutia and Chukotka, as well as mining on the Kola Peninsula,
make the northern territory of Russia one of the most dangerous territories for the
Arctic environment.
Over some territories of the Arctic, vegetation cover has been violated; the areas
and productivity of reindeer pasture have been reduced. The hydrological regime of
Arctic rivers has markedly changed, too. Pollutants are taken with river run-o to the
coastal zones of the northern Russia, which in¯uences the functioning of Arctic Basin
ecosystems.
Any further in¯uence on vulnerable Arctic ecosystems will likely lead to negative
consequences, possibly global in scale. Therefore, the problem of human develop-
ment of the northern territories, especially in Russia, requires a thorough analysis of
the dynamics of all types of ecosystems, formation of a database on their current
state, and development of ecient ways of co-ordinating the development of both
natural and anthropogenic processes. The following directions to be taken by any
further development of the northern territories are now clearly seen:
(1) Intensive development and dierentiation by territorial indicators of known and

future deposits for mining and energy.
(2) Formation of reserves, national parks, and other forms of ecosystem protection
in the northern territories.
Realizaton of these directions needs the development of a means of monitoring

the system (e.g., a renewable database). The monitoring system should be able to
trace violations of the ecosystem's balanced state and anthropogenically violated
landscapes as well as assess the state of the habitat of animals and humans in the
northern territories. In this connection, the following studies should be carried out
®rst:
. the complex monitoring of land territories and sea basins to create a cadastre2
of land resources and a database of the parameters of biocenoses and
ecosystems;
2
A registry of real estate.
. study of the social problems faced by nomadic people in the northern latitudes,
and evaluation of the damage to their habitat;
. regioning the northern territories on the basis of the landscape±basin±adminis-
trative principle of settling nomadic people, but taking the migration of reindeer
and reindeer farmers into account;
. revealing and ranging the functional problems facing the systems of nature
protection.
First of all, all violations of land cover, land®ll sites, polluted territories, routes
taken by oil and gas pipelines, sources (known and hypothetical) of pollutants of soil,
water, and atmosphere, zones of ¯ooding as a result of anthropogenic activity should
be brought to light and included in databases. Estimates of some parameters of the
systems of the Arctic Basin are given in Tables 6.3 through 6.5.
These problems are considered from dierent aspects in the many international
and national programs that are studying the environment. For example, in 1991 the
U.S.A. launched the ARCSS program (Arctic Science System: Land/Atmosphere/Ice
Interaction) as part of the Global Change international program initiated at the U.S.
National Science Foundation (McCauley and Meier, 1991). The main goal of this
program is to develop methods, technologies, algorithms, and software, to facilitate
evaluation of the sensitivity of global oscillations in the NSS to changes in its Arctic
Table 6.3. Estimates of some parameters of the Arctic Basin.
Parameter Available estimate of the parameter
Area of the Arctic basin (10 6 km 2 ) 16.23
Flows of water masses through straits (10 3 m 3 yr 1 )

Faroe±Shetland 135; 45
Denmark 30; 130
Bering 1.8
Faroe±Iceland 40
Ice salinity (%)

one-year (150 cm) 5
multi-year (3 m) 1
River run-o (km 3 /yr)

Yenisey 603
Ob 0 530
Lena 520
Mackenzie 340
Pechora 130
Kolyma 132
Northern Dvina 110
Out¯ow from freshwater basins with ice (km 3 /yr) 1,500

Table 6.4. Characteristics of Arctic Basin water bodies.
Water body Area Volume Depth
(10 3 km 2 ) (10 3 km 2 ) Average Maximum
Central Basin 4,977 12,442 2,500 4,000
Barents Sea 1,424 316 222 600
Greenland Sea 1,195 1,961 1,641 5,527
Norwegian Sea 1,340 2,325 1,735 3,970
White Sea 90 6 67 350
Ban Bay 200 700
Kara Sea 893.4 101 113 600
Chukchi Sea 582 23 40 60
East Siberian Sea 944.6 18 20 30
sector. Essentially, the ARCSS program should provide understanding of the role of
physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social processes taking place in the
Arctic region, in global changes to the environment, and to create thereby the
scienti®c basis for solution of the major problem of predicting such changes on
dierent timescales, from annual to centennial. The U.S. Biocomplexity national
program launched in 2000 supplements the goals above, extending them to the global
scale. Within this program, plans are being made to study and understand correla-
tions between the complexity of biological, physical, and social systems and trends in
changes of the present environment. The complexity of the system, no matter how it
interacts with the environment, is a phenomenon that occurs as a result of contact
between living systems and their environment under global conditions.
Table 6.5. Characteristics of the freshwater balance of Arctic Basin water bodies.
Water body Area Supply of Volume of melted

freshwater in ice freshwater
(10 3 km 2 ) (km 3 ) (km3 /yr)
Central Basin 4,977 13,000 1,990
North European Basin 4,065 2,470 1,170
Seas of the Siberian Shelf 3,025 5,330 2,260
Canadian Basin 2,632 4,700 1,800

Biocomplexity is a derivative of the biological, physical, chemical, social, and

behavioral interactions of environmental sub-systems, including living organisms
and the global population. As a matter of fact, the notion of biocomplexity in the
environment is closely connected with the rules of biosphere functioning which unites
ecosystems and natural±economic systems at dierent scales, from local to global
(Kondratyev, 1999a, b). Therefore, to determine biocomplexity and to assess it, a
combined formalized description is needed of the biological, geochemical, geophys-
ical, and anthropogenic factors and processes taking place at a given level of the
spatiotemporal hierarchy of units and scales.
Biocomplexity is a characteristic feature of all systems of the environment
connected with life. The ways in which this is manifested are studied within the
framework of the theory of stability and vitality of ecosystems. Note that biocom-
plexity includes indicators of the extent to which interacting systems modify each
other, and this means that biocomplexity should be studied by considering both the
spatial and biological levels of its organization. The diculty of this problem is
explained by the complicated behavior of the object under study, especially when
the human factor is considered, due to which the number of stress situations in the
environment is constantly growing. Within this study the Arctic systems are
considered as NSS sub-systems.
The problem of routine monitoring of the northern territories and water bodies
of the Arctic Basin is far from being solved. Understanding this, in 1992 the Institute
of Marine Science (University of Alaska Fairbanks), the Environment and Natural
Resources Institute (University of Alaska Anchorage), the Institute of Ecoinfor-
matics (Russian Academy of Natural Sciences), the Institute of Radioengineering
and Electronics (Russian Academy of Sciences), the Russian Institute for the
Monitoring of Lands and Ecosystems, and the Insitute of Oceanology (Russian
Academy of Sciences) developed a program to synthesize a system for geoinforma-
tion monitoring of the Arctic (Krapivin, 1999a, b; Kelley et al., 1992, 1999). In recent
years, attempts have been made to consolidate the eorts of scientists from both
countries to solve these problems. The results of these eorts have been re¯ected
in joint publications, three international symposia, and two Russian±American
ecological expeditions in Siberia (Krapivin et al., 1997; Phillips et al., 1997).
Understanding and prediction of correlations between the processes taking place
in the Arctic environment and in other global regions is only possible within the
complex scienti®c±technical approach to a study and analysis of these processes, by
means of the balanced use of observational and theoretical studies and using satellite,
aircraft, mobile and stationary measurements from the ground, such as GIS and
GIMS technologies.
Interactions between the atmosphere, land, and marine ecosystems in the Arctic
climate are characterized by a range of spatiotemporal scales; understanding the
internal bonds at each level is the key objective of monitoring. Each scale is
characterized by a certain type of Earth landscape: vegetation cover, topography,
character of hydrological and synoptic structures, and the animal kingdom. Revela-
tion of internal and external cause-and-eect bonds between these elements and other
components of the global NSS will make it possible to form a database for any future
Figure 6.1. Conceptual scheme of environment monitoring for northern latitudes. It re¯ects the
correlations between spatial scales and the problems facing studies attempting to understand the
functioning of the Arctic.
geoinformation system aimed at monitoring the Arctic. Figure 6.1 explains the
methodology behind the study of these bonds.
The methodology, which combines the means of remote and ground monitoring
with numerical modeling of processes shown in the right-hand part of Figure 6.1, was
proposed in the works of Russian and American scientists (Krapivin et al., 1996a, b;
Krapivin and Phillips, 2001a, b). Its application will make it possible to obtain more
accurate assessments of the role of Arctic latitudes in global processes taking place in
the NSS. The current practice of considering land and marine processes separately
should not impede complex studies. Present-day numerical models of NSS function-
ing are capable of overcoming this separation. Such models will make it possible to
synthesize the migration of chemical elements in Arctic latitudes and to assess the
consequences of large-scale anthropogenic processes in the northern territories.
Revelation of critical situations and processes is another problem that faces the
complex system of monitoring the Arctic region.
Essentially, this concerns formation of a software package. the input to which
will be data on the spatial distribution of land and marine ecosystems, as well as sets
of scenarios of anthropogenic processes and climatic trends. Such a database will be
continuously updated and provide sequences of models to provide reliable forecasts
of the dynamics of these ecosystems and will facilitate realization of hypothetic
scenarios for Arctic environmental control.
The successful solution of some of these problems can be exempli®ed by the 3-D
model that calculates the dynamics of radionuclide pollution of the Arctic Basin
(Preller and Cheng, 1999) and the 2-D model of the ice condition of Arctic Ocean
basins (Riedlinger and Preller, 1991).
6.3 ARCTIC BASIN POLLUTION PROBLEM
The purpose of this section is to develop and investigate a model to simulate the
pollution dynamics in the Arctic Basin. There are many experimental and theoretical
results giving estimates of the growing dependencies between the pollution dynamics
in the World Ocean and that of the continental environment. The problem of Arctic
Basin pollution is problematic for investigators (Krapivin and Phillips, 2001a, b). The
ecosystems of the Arctic seas are known to be more vulnerable than the ecosystems of
other seas. The processes that clean the Arctic Ocean are slower, and marine organ-
isms of the Arctic ecosystem live under polar climate conditions where the vegetation
period is restricted. Some feedback mechanisms operate with signi®cant time delays
and their capacity to neutralize the eects of human activity is feeble. In addition to
these reasons the Arctic ecosystem has speci®c boundary conditions connected with
the sea ice ergocline which reduce the survivability level of pollution.
In connection with this, the Arctic Basin is the object of investigation in many
national and international environmental programs, such as the International
Geosphere±Biosphere Program, U.S. Global Change Research, the international
Arctic System Science program (ARCSS), the U.S. Arctic Nuclear Waste Assessment
Program (ANWAP), and the International Arctic Monitoring and Assessment
Program (AMAP). The research strategies of these programs include the theoretical
and experimental study of tundra ecosystems, Siberian rivers, and near-shore and
open Arctic waters. The main problems consist in identifying the most important
priorities for immediate study, including
(1) Transport modeling of pollutants in Arctic ecosystems. From the experimental

database, it is necessary to prepare a complete set of models and corresponding
computer realizations to describe the processes of transfer and transformation of
pollutants in the Arctic's natural ecosystems. This set includes the following
models:
e a model of the transformation of organic pollution in the ecosystems of
freshwater basins and streams;
Sec. 6.3] 6.3 Arctic Basin pollution problem 361
e models of the self-cleaning processes for oil, radionuclides, heavy metals, and
other pollutants;
e a model of radionuclide and heavy metal accumulation in the river
ecosystems of the Far North;
e a model of the transport of radionuclide, heavy metal, and organic pollution
from river ¯ows into the coastal zones of Arctic waters;
e a model of pollution leaching out during the spring season in tundra and
forest±tundra zones;
e a model of the kinetics and transformation mechanisms for biospheric
elements in water systems;
e a kinetics model of radionuclides and heavy metals in the foodchains of the
land ecosystems for boreal zones;
e a model of the surface ¯ow of chemical elements and compounds from
territories in zones with open-cast mines under the climatic conditions of
the Far North; and
e a model of the seasonal in¯uence of pollution on phytoplankton and primary
production in northern seas.
(2) Modeling the exchange processes of carbon dioxide and methane between tundra
ecosystems and the atmosphere. The global interaction of Arctic ecosystems with
the biosphere and with the Earth's climatic system is carried out in particular
through the in¯uence on the biogeochemical cycles of carbon dioxide and
methane. Existing models of the global circulation of these greenhouse gases
are incomplete in that they do not take into account this interaction. Present
estimations of the gas exchange between Arctic ecosystems and the atmosphere
con®rm, however, the necessity of making such an account. To create a model
set related to the gas exchange in the Arctic reservoirs it is necessary to compile
a catalog of soil±plant formations, ice ®elds, and land-based and oceanic
reservoirs. It is necessary also to put in the database estimations of evapo-
transpiration, dead vegetation decomposition rate, and the productivity of
vegetation communities. With the aid of this model set it will be possible to
evaluate the role of tundra ecosystems in forming the greenhouse eect.
(3) Modeling the hydrological regime and estimation of the pollutant ¯ows in the Arctic
Basin. It is necessary to prepare a set of models to describe the dynamics of
separate aquatories3 and of the whole hydrosystem of the Arctic Ocean,
including:
e a complex model of the water circulation in the Arctic Basin;
e regional models of the water circulation in Arctic seas;
e a model of the kinetics of radionuclides, heavy metals, and organic
pollutants in the trophic structures of Arctic marine ecosystems;
e a model of the spread of pollutant concentration from a point-like source in
the near-coastal zone of the Arctic Basin;
e a model of the transfer of radionuclides, heavy metals, and organic
pollutants due to vertical mixing of Arctic waters; and
3
By `àquatory'' we mean the restricted ocean (or sea) area that is the subject for study.
e a model of the conservation and release processes due to freezing and

thawing of the ice cover.
(4) Modeling Arctic ecosystems as a result of anthropogenic impacts. Anthropogenic
in¯uence in the Arctic Basin and on adjacent territories is connected with local,
regional, and global activities. Therefore, it is necessary to construct models/
scenarios that simulate:
e the in¯uence of radionuclides, heavy metals, and oil hydrocarbons on the
dynamics of marine ecosystems under Arctic climate conditions;
e the limit of vegetation cover due to the dierent types of pollution that are
brought to land ecosystems by precipitation and surface ¯ows;
e the dynamics of vegetation covers subjected to physical in¯uence;
e town and settlement structures under development; and
e the changes in area of traditional seasonal regions of the activity of nomadic
peoples;
e the social development of the scattered peoples in the Far North.2
(5) Modeling the biogeochemical carbon cycle in the atmosphere±Arctic Ocean
system. As was shown by from experience of modeling the carbon dioxide global
cycle, estimations of the role of the World Ocean in redundant carbon absorption
are rather rough. For models to be more precise they need to be reinforced by
more reliable parameterizations of the physical processes related to the interac-
tion between the bordering layers of the atmosphere and Arctic aquatories.
According to numerous laboratory and natural observations, the directivity of
these processes depends considerably on many factors. The most signi®cant of
these are the speed of the driving wind, the presence of ice cover, and the vertical
distribution pro®le of the water temperature. The complex composition of these
factors determines the variety of possible models and their details. One signi®cant
problem is explanation of the powerful growth of seaweed during the spring
season and hence to construct a parameterization system for the dynamics of
photosynthetic processes under conditions of snow and ice cover and when they
thaw in spring.
(6) Development of a complex model to simulate the functioning of the hydrologic and
biogeochemical systems in the Arctic. In addition to the set of models intended
for local and fragmentary processes in Arctic ecosystems, as well as for under-
standing their global role, it is necessary to synthesize a single model for the
whole complex of biogeochemical, biogeocenotic, and hydrologic processes that
occur in boreal systems. Creation of such a model will make it possible to obtain
a means of estimating the consequences of anthropogenic projects. Using this
model we can estimate the consequences of forest cutting and ®res, of the broad-
ening of zones with disturbed land cover, of land and basin pollution by oil, of
hydrogeological changes in adjacent territories due to deliberate ¯ooding of land,
of territorial pollution by waste material from mining, etc.
(7) Estimation of the stability of Arctic systems under variable global climate
conditions. Human activities in the delicate ecosystems of the Far North
need to be conducted with great care. In this regard, two questions spring to
mind:
Sec. 6.4] 6.4 Application of modeling technology to the study of pollutant dynamics 363
e How can the natural balance be safeguarded from the rising in¯uence of
human civilization with all its industrial might?
e How can the survival of these ecosystems be evaluated in dierent situations?
These and other questions need to be answered as part of the program outlined
above.
An understanding of the environmental processes in Arctic regions, a pre-

requisite to ®nding scienti®c solutions to the problems arising there, can be found
only by combining many disciplines, including ecology, oceanography, mathematical
modeling, and system analysis. This section synthesizes many data sources and
knowledge from various scienti®c ®elds and take the form of blocks in the Spatial
Simulation Model of the Arctic Ecosystem (SSMAE). Separate blocks of the SSMAE
were created earlier by many authors (Riedlinger and Preller 1991; Muller and Peter
1992; Legendre and Krapivin 1992). The sequence of these blocks in the SSMAE
structure and the adaptation of it to the Spatial Global Model (SGM) can act as the
technology for computer experiments (Krapivin, 1993, 1995; Kondratyev et al.,
2000).
This investigation solves one of the problems of the ARCSS Program. The
present chapter describes a simulation system based on sets of computer algorithms
for processing data from the monitoring of Arctic regions and for applying mathe-
matical models of natural and anthropogenic processes.
The basic blocks of the SSMAE are aimed at describing the dynamics of any
given pollutant. For consideration of a speci®c pollutant it is necessary to include in
the SSMAE an additional block describing its physical and chemical characteristics.
This procedure can be demonstrated by examples of blocks that simulate the char-
acteristics of radionuclides, heavy metals, and oil hydrocarbons. The consideration of
these pollutants is restricted to elements with averaged properties.
The boundaries of the Arctic Basin water area O studied in this chapter include
the peripheral Arctic seas as well as the coastline and southern boundaries of the
Norwegian and Bering Seas.
6.4 APPLICATION OF MODELING TECHNOLOGY TO THE STUDY

OF POLLUTANT DYNAMICS IN THE ARCTIC SEAS
6.4.1 Spatial simulation model of the Arctic ecosystem

A conceptual diagram and the block contents of the SSMAE are shown in Figure 6.2
and Table 6.6. The functioning of the SSMAE is supported by the SGM and by the
Climate Model (CM) (Sellers et al. 1996). The inputs to the SSMAE comprise data
about the pollutant sources of the near-shore Arctic Basin, ice areas, and current
maps. The SSMAE contains three types of blocks: mathematical models of the
natural ecological and hydrophysical processes, service software and a scenario
generator. The marine biota block (MBB) describes the dynamics of energy ¯ows
in the trophic chains of the Arctic Basin ecosystem. The hydrological block (HB)
Figure 6.2. Block diagram of the SSMAE. Descriptions of the blocks are given in Table 6.6.
CM is the climate model or the climate scenario.
describes the spatial discretization of O on water circulation in the Arctic. The

pollution simulation model (PSM) contains anthropogenic scenarios and the service
control block (SB).
Let us designate the Arctic Basin aquatory as O f'; g where ' and are
latitude and longitude, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity of the Arctic Basin model is
provided for by a set of cells DTCO2 with latitude and longitude steps D' and D,
respectively. These cells are the basic spatial structure of O for the realization of
computer algorithms. The cells Oi j are heterogeneous as to their parameters and
functioning. There are a set of cells that are adjacent to river mouths (OR ) and to
ports (OP ), bordering on land (OG ), in the Bering Strait (OB ) and on the south
boundary of the Norwegian Sea (ON ). The water area O is divided in depth z by
steps Dz. The distribution of depths is given as the matrix H khi j k where
hi j H'i ; j , 'i ; j 2 Oi j . As a result, the full water volume of O is divided into
volumetric compartments
Xi jk f'; ; z j 'i ' 'i1 ; j j1 ; zk z zk1 g;
with volumes i jk D'i Dj Dzk . Within Xi jk the water body is considered
homogeneous in structure. The water temperature, salinity, density, and biomass
of compartments Xi jk are described by box models. The anthropogenic processes
acting on water area O are described for the four seasons: w winter, s spring, u
summer, and a autumn.
The procedure of spatial discretization is provided for via the ICI block of the
SSMAE database, which includes a set of identi®ers Ak ka kij k, where a kij is the
speci®c symbol that identi®es a real element of Oi j in the computer memory. Identi®er
A1 re¯ects the spatial structure of the Arctic Basin and adjoining territories (a 1i j 0
= O; a 1i j 1 for 'i ; j 2 O when 'i ; j belongs to the land (islands), and
for 'i ; j 2
Table 6.6. Description of the SSMAE blocks (Figure 6.2).
Block Description of the block
MBB Marine Biota Block, containing the set of models of energy ¯ows in the trophic
chains of the Arctic Basin ecosystem (Krapivin, 1995; Legendre and Legendre,
1998; Legendre and Krapivin, 1992).
HB Hydrological Block, describing the water circulation in the Arctic seas and the
movement of ecological elements (Krapivin, 1995, 1996).
PSM Pollution Simulation Model of the Arctic Basin, including a set of anthropogenic
scenarios (Krapivin, 1993, 1995).
SB Service Block, to control the simulation experiment
APM Air Pollution transport Model (Kondratyev and Varotsos, 2000; Krapivin, 1995;
Muller and Peter, 1992).
MFB Model of the Functioning of Biota under the conditions of energy exchange in
the trophic chain of the Arctic Basin ecosystem (Legendre and Legendre, 1998;
Legendre and Krapivin, 1992).
SS Simulator of Scenarios, describing the ice ®elds, synoptic situations, and changes
in hydrological regimes.
MWD Model for the Water Dynamics of the Arctic Basin (Riedlinger and Preller,
1991).
MMT Model for heavy Metal Transport through foodchains (Krapivin et al., 1998).
IM The Illumination Model (Nitu et al., 2000b).
NM The Nutrients Model (Legendre and Krapivin, 1992; Legendre and Legendre,
1998; Krapivin, 1996)
MPT Model for Pollution Transport through water exchange between the Arctic Basin
and the Atlantic and Paci®c Oceans.
MOT Model for the process of Oil hydrocarbon Transport to foodchains (Payne et al.,
1991).
MPR Model for the Process of Radionuclide transport to foodchains (Krapivin, 1995).
MRF Model of River Flow to the Arctic Basin (Krapivin et al., 1998).
MWS Model of Water Salinity dynamics (Nitu et al., 2000b).
MEF Model for Energy Flow transport in the Arctic basin ecosystem.
MWT Model for calculating Water Temperature (Nitu et al., 2000b).
ICI Interface for Control of Identi®ers.
ICD Interface for Control of the Database.
ICV Interface for Control of Visualization.
Table 6.7. Initial data for SSMAE on the distribution of pollutants over Arctic water bodies at
moment t0 .
Water body Symbol Concentration
Radionuclides Heavy Oil

(Bq/L) metals hydrocarbons
137 60
Cs Co (mg/L) (mg/L)
Greenland Sea G 0.05 0.05 0.5 0.2
Norwegian Sea N 0.05 0.05 0.7 0.4
Barents Sea B 0.07 0.07 0.8 0.6
Kara Sea K 0.10 0.10 1.0 0.4
White Sea r 0.10 0.10 1.1 0.4
Laptev Sea L 0.05 0.05 0.9 0.5
East Siberian Sea E 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.5
Bering Sea S 0.02 0.02 0.8 0.7
Chukchi Sea X 0.01 0.01 0.8 0.6
Beaufort Sea F 0.05 0.05 0.7 0.2
Central Basin U 0.00 0.00 0.1 0.1
a 1i j equals the water area identi®er symbol from the second column of Table 6.7 when
'i ; j belongs to a given sea).
Identi®er A2 shows the position of cells OR , OP , ON , OS , OG and describes the
spatial distribution of pollutant sources. Other identi®ers Ak are used to describe ice
®elds (k 3), the spatial distribution of solar radiation (k 4), and the dislocation of
upwelling zones (k 5).
The user of the SSMAE in free-running mode may choose dierent ways to
describe the many input parameters. Blocks ICI and ICD activate online entry
to Ak and to the database. For example, if the user has data about the spatial
distribution of ice ®elds in O, he can form identi®er A3 with a 3i j 0 for an ice-free
water surface, a 3i j 1 for new ice, and a 3i j 2 for old ice. In this case block SS enables
the input of data from the climate model concerning ice ®elds.
The block structure of the SSMAE is provided for using a C program. Each
of the blocks from Table 6.6 is a C function. The main function provides for
interactions between the SSMAE, SGM, and CM. This functional speci®cation
supports overlapping of output and input streams of SSMAE blocks. In
conversational mode the user can toggle the datastreams between the slave blocks.
The calculating procedure is based on sub-division of the Arctic Basin into grids
fXi jk g. This is realized by means of a quasi-linearization method (Nitu et al., 2000a).
All dierential equations of the SSMAE are substituted in each box Xi jk by easily
integrable ordinary dierential equations with constant coecients. Water motion
and turbulent mixing are realized in conformity with current velocity ®elds which are
de®ned on the same coordinate grid as the fXi jk g (Krapivin et al., 1998).
6.4.2 Marine biota block

The ice±water ergocline plays an important role in the biological productivity of
northern seas. According to the hypothesis of Legendre and Legendre (1998), energy
ergoclines are the preferential sites for biological production in the Arctic Ocean.
Primary production in foodchains of Arctic Basin ecosystems is determined by
phytoplankton productivity. This is connected with complex variations in the
meteorological, hydrodynamic, geochemical, and energy parameters of the sea
environment. The problem of parameterizing phytoplankton production in northern
seas was studied by Legendre and Legendre (1998). Table 6.8 shows the seasonal
composition of conditions aecting primary production in O. This scheme is applied
to each Xi jk .
Block MWT calculates the water temperature Tw by averaging the temperatures
of mixed water volumes. In addition, the following correlations are applied:

0:024b 0:76T0 8:38; when b 50 cm;
Tg Tr Tf 6:1
0:042b 0:391T0 0:549; when b < 50 cm.
where b g r f ; T0 is the surface temperature; g is the snow depth; r is the

thickness of ¯oating ice; and f is the depth of submerged ice below the water surface.
If we designate by g , r , and the density of snow, ice, and seawater, respectively, we
Table 6.8. The vertical structure of the Arctic Basin's water bodies.
Layer (A) Dz Parameters of the layer
TA EA kA A A
Surface T0 E0
Snow g Tg Eg g g
Floating ice r Tr Er r r
Drowned ice f Tf Ef f f
Water z f TW EW kW W W
Dz layer thickness, TA temperature, EA illumination, kA turbulence coef®cient, A coef®cient of

illumination attenuation, and A coef®cient of light re¯ection.
Figure 6.3. Block diagram of energy ¯ows (cal m 3 da 1 ) in the trophic pyramid of the Arctic
Basin ecosystem. This is realized as block MEF. The boxes with elements denote the generalized
trophic levels of the Arctic ecosystem. All of the elements are described by means of averaged
parameters for the biological community of the northern seas. It is supposed that this trophic
pyramid takes place in each of the Arctic Basin seas. The trophic relations between the elements
of the model are described on the basis of the energy principle (Nitu et al., 2000b). Biomasses,
rates of production and exchange (respiration), and food rations are expressed in energy units.
Total nitrogen serves as a ``nutrient salts'' prototype in the model.
obtain for the depth of ice beneath the surface:

f gg rr = r :
Figures 6.3 and 6.4 show a conceptual ¯owchart of the energy in an ecological system.
The energy input during time interval t is provided by solar radiation EA t; '; ; z, as
is the upward transport of nutrients from deep-sea layers. The concentration of
nutrients B6;A t; '; ; z at depth z is determined by photosynthesis RpA , advection,
and destruction of suspended dead organic matter B7 . The role played by hydro-
dynamic conditions relates to maintenance of the concentration of nutrients required
for photosynthesis which occurs via transport from other layers or aquatories of the
sea where the concentration is suciently high. Taking into account the designations
of Table 6.7 we have
8
>
> E0 t; '; ; when z g r;
>
>
>
< Eg t; '; ; z 1 g E0 expg z;
> when z 2 gr; r;
Et; '; ; z Er t; '; ; z 1 r Eg t; '; ; r expr z; when z 2 r; 0;
>
>
>
> Ef t; '; ; z 1 f Er t; '; ; 0 exp f z; when z 2 0; f ;
>
>
:
Ew t; '; ; z 1 w Et; '; ; f exp w z; when z > f .
3
Figure 6.4. Block diagram of energy ¯ows (cal m da 1 ) at the snow±ice±water interface.
where the values of A (A g; r; f ; w) depend on the optical properties of the Ath

medium. Irradiance E0 arrives at surface O. The estimate of E0 is obtained from
monitoring or is calculated from the climatic model. The ¯ow of E0 is attenuated
by snow, ice, and water according to Table 6.7. In each cell Oi j the structure of
these layers is changed corresponding to the time of year. Within each layer, the
attenuation of irradiance with depth is described by an exponential model (Legendre
and Krapivin, 1992). Parameters A and A are functions of salinity, turbidity,
temperature, and biomass. The form of this dependence is given as a scenario,
otherwise standard functions are used (block IL).
As a basic scheme for the ¯ow of nutrients in water, the scheme proposed by
Krapivin (1996) is accepted, as adjusted to conditions in the Arctic Basin by Legendre
and Legendre (1998). It is supposed that the spatial distribution of upwelling zones is
given with seasonal variations. Block NUM realizes this scheme regarding the current
structure of upwelling regions.
The dynamic equation for nutrients B6;A in the environment, where
A fS snow; I ice; W waterg, is given by
@B6;A @B6;A @B6;A @B6;A
vA
' vA
vA
z
@t @' @ @z
@ 2 B6;A @B6;A X5
QA k W
2 V 1 Ti 1 RpA " A "
1 H 1; 6:2
@ 2z @z i1
where v A A A
' ; v ; v z are velocity projections of motion in the environment; QA is the
input of biogenic elements to A resulting from the decomposition of detritus
(QA n R A A
D ) with R D A B7 ; n is the content of nutrients in dead organic matter;
A is the rate of decomposition of detritus in environment A; k W 2 is the kinematical

coecient of vertical diusion; 1 is the velocity of nutrient assimilation by the
photosynthetic process per unit of phytoplankton production; " A 1 is the proportional
part of the "th radionuclide that is chemically analogous to B6;A on substrate A; H "1 is
the rate of input ¯ow of the "th radionuclide; Ti is the rate of exchange with the
environment; 1 is that part of biomass losses due to exchange that transforms into
nutrients (Legendre and Legendre, 1998); and V is upwelling velocity. Equation (6.1)
is the basic element of block NM.
Phytoplankton production RpA in environment A is a function of solar radiation
EA , concentration of nutrients nA , temperature TA , phytoplankton biomass pA ,
and concentration of pollutants A . There are many models that describe the
photosynthesis process (Legendre and Legendre, 1998; Legendre and Krapivin,
1992). For the description of this function in the present study, an equation of
Michaelis±Menten type is used (block MFB):
RpA aA k A A
I pA;max =EA k I ; 6:3
where k AI is the irradiance level at which RpA 0:5 RpA;max ; and pA;max is the
maximum quantum yield (Legendre and Legendre, 1998). The coecient aA re¯ects
the dependence of phytoplankton production on environment temperature T and
concentration of nutrients B6;A . The block MFB realizes the following equation for
calculation of aA :
aA a1 K0 T; t=1 B2;A =a2 B6;A ; 6:4
where a1 is the maximal rate of nutrient absorption by phytoplankton (da 1 ); and a2

is the index of the rate of saturation of photosynthesis, and

Tc T Tc T
K0 T; t a3 max 0; exp 1 ; 6:5
Tc Topt Tc Topt
where a3 is a weight coecient; and Tc and Topt are the critical and optimal
temperatures for photosynthesis, respectively ( C).
Equation (6.3) adequately ®ts laboratory data. Relationships (6.4) and (6.5)
make the description of phytoplankton production more accurate for critical
environmental conditions when the concentration of nutrients and the temperature
¯uctuate widely. The coecients of these relationships are de®ned on the basis of
estimates given by Legendre and Legendre (1998).
The dynamic equation for phytoplankton biomass in environment A takes the
following form:
@B2;A @B2;A @B2;A @B2;A
vA
' vA
vA
z
@t @' @ @z
@ 2 B2;A
RpA A
p MA A
p k2 k A A A A
Zp RZA = Z k Fp RFA = F B2;A ; 6:6
@z 2
where RZA A A
Z and RFA F are the production (the food spectrum) of zooplankton
B3 and nekton B5 , respectively; M A A
p is mortality; and p is the rate of exchange. The
balance equations for the other ecological elements of Figure 6.3 are given by
Krapivin (1995, 1996).
The energy source for the entire system is solar radiation EA t; '; ; z, the
intensity of which depends on time t, latitude ', longitude , and depth z. The
equation that describes the biomass dynamics of living elements is

@Bi @Bi @Bi @Bi
i V' V Vz
@t @' @ @z
X
@ @B @ @B
R i T i Mi H i Ci j Rj i D' i D i
j2Gi
@' @' @ @

@ @B @Bi
Dz i V i 1; 3; 4; 5; 6:7
@z @z @z
where VV' ; V ; Vz are components of the water current velocity (V' v W ' ,
V v W
, V z v W
z ); Ri is production; M i is mortality; H i is non-assimilated food;
X
and Gi is the set of trophic dependences of the ith component Cji kji Fi kjm Fm ;
m2Si
Si is the food spectrum of the jth component; kjm is the index of satisfaction of the
nutritive requirements of the jth component at the expense of the mth component
biomass; Fi maxf0; Bi Bi;min g; Bi;min is the minimal biomass of the ith component
consumed at other trophic levels; DD' ; D ; Dz are components of the turbulent
mixing coecient (on the assumption of isotrophism of vertical mixing in the hori-
zontal plane D' D vH ); and V is upwelling velocity. Functions Ri , Mi , Hi and
Ti are parameterized according to the models by Krapivin (1996) and Legendre and
Krapivin (1992). The equations describing the dynamics of the abiotic elements are
represented in conformity with Kondratyev and Krapivin (2001a, b). Functions M4
and M5 include biomass losses from ®shing. Parameter i characterizes the subjection
of the ith component relative to the current. It is supposed that i 1 for i 1; 2; 3
and i 0 for i 4; 5.
The inert components are described by the following equation (Krapivin, 1996):
@B7 @B @B @B
V' 7 V 7 Vz 7
@t @' @ @z
X
5
@B7
Mi Hi W B7 v V k1;7 R1 =P1 k3;7 R3 =P3 k4;7 R4 =P4
i1
@z

@ @B @ @B @ @B
k5;7 R5 =P5 B7;min D' 7 D 7 Dz 7 ; 6:8
@' @' @ @ @z @z
X
where Pi ki; j Bj;min ; W is the velocity of decomposition of detritus per unit
j2Si
biomass; v is the speed of settling due to gravity; and ki j is a coecient of the relation
between the ith element and the jth element of the ecosystem.
Equations (6.2)±(6.8) can only be used for the complete volume when
'; ; z 2 W. In other cases (in the layers of ice or snow) these equations are
automatically reduced in accordance with the scheme represented in Figure 6.4.
6.4.3 Hydrological block

The circulation of water in the Arctic Basin is a complex system of cycles and currents
with dierent scales. Block HB simulates the dynamics of Arctic Basin water by the
system of sub-blocks presented in Figure 6.2. The water dynamics in O is presented by
¯ows between compartments Xi jk . The directions of water exchanges are represented
on every level zk z0 k 1Dzk according to Aota et al. (1992) in conformity
with the current maps assigned as SSMAE input. The external boundary of O is
determined by the coastline, the sea bottom, the Bering Strait, the southern boundary
of the Norwegian Sea, and the water±atmosphere interface.
The hydrological data are synthesized via a four-level structure according to
the seasons (block MWD). The velocity of current in the Bering Strait is estimated
by the following binary function:

V1 ; for t 2 u [ a ;
Vt
V2 ; for t 2 w [ s .
Water exchange through the southern boundary of the Norwegian Sea is V3 .
The water temperature T W i jk in Xi jk (block MWT) is a function of evaporation,
precipitation, river ¯ows, and in¯ows of water from the Atlantic and Paci®c Oceans.
Its change with time in Xi jk is described by the equation of heat balance:
@T W
i jk
X
Ci jk W islm
jk
f islm
jk
Wi jk ; 6:9
@t s;l;m
where is seawater density (g cm 3 ); C is water thermal capacity, (cal g 1 grad 1 );

i jk is the volume of Xi jk ; W islm
jk
is heat in¯ow to Xi jk from Xslm ; f islm
jk
is heat exchange
between Xslm and Xi jk caused by turbulent mixing; and Wi jk is total heat out¯ow
from Xi jk to bordering cells. Heat exchange with the atmosphere is calculated in
accordance with empirical equation (6.1).
The dissipation of moving kinetic energy, geothermic ¯ow on the ocean bed, heat
eects of chemical processes in the ocean ecosystem, and freezing and melting of
the ice are not considered to be global determinants of water temperature ®elds.
Therefore, the SSMAE does not consider these eects.
The dynamics of water salinity St; '; ; z during time interval t are described by
the balance equation as block MWS. Ice salinity is de®ned by a two-step scale: s1 old,
s2 new. It is supposed that St; '; ; z s0 for z > 100 m, s2 ks St; '; ; f for
r f > Hmax , and s1 kr s2 Hmax =r f for r f < Hmax , where coecients ks
and kr are determined empirically and Hmax is the maximal thickness of new ice.
In accordance with estimations by Krapivin (1995), simulation experiments are
realized for Hmax 50 cm, ks kr 1. River ¯ows, ice ®elds, and synoptic situations
are described by scenarios given in the MRF and SS blocks and formed by the user of
the SSMAE.
Snow layer thickness gt; '; may be described via statistical data with given
dispersion characteristics g g g0 , where the value g is de®ned as the mean
characteristic for the chosen time interval, and function g0 t; '; gives the variation
of g for the given time interval.
An alternative way of parameterizing the process of snow layer dynamics in the
framework of the atmospheric process simulation algorithm (block APM) relates to
the thickness of the growth and melting of the snow layer according to temperature
and precipitation:
gt Dt; '; gt; '; SF SM ;
where SF is snow precipitated at temperatures close to freezing (265 K T0 275 K);
and SM is snow ablation (i.e., evaporation melting).
Block SS gives the user the possibility of choosing between these algorithms.
When statistical data on snow layer thickness exist, function gt; '; can be recon-
structed for '; 2 O by means of the approximation algorithm at the time of
polynomial interpolation in space (Krapivin, 2000a, b; Nitu et al., 2000b).
6.4.4 Pollution block

The block PSM simulates the pollution processes over territory O as a result of
atmospheric transport, river and surface coastal out¯ow, navigation, and other
human activity (Mohler and Arnold, 1992; Muller and Peter, 1992). The variety of
pollutants is described by three components: oil hydrocarbons O, heavy metals
(e solid particles, dissolved fraction), and radionuclides ". It is supposed that
pollutants only enter living organisms through the foodchain.
Rivers make a considerable contribution to the level of pollution of Arctic water.
The concentration of pollutant in river is . Pollutant enters compartment
Oi jk 2 OR with velocity c re¯ecting the mass ¯ow per unit time. Subsequently, the
spreading of pollutant in O is described by other sub-blocks.
The in¯uence of water exchanges between the Arctic Basin and the Paci®c and
Atlantic Oceans on the pollution level in O is described by block MPT. It is supposed
that the watersheds of the Norwegian Sea ON and the Bering Strait OB are
characterized by currents with varying directions given as a scenario.
The atmospheric transport of heavy metals, oil hydrocarbons, and radionuclides
is described by many models (Phillips et al., 1997; Payne et al., 1991; Sportisse, 2000).
Application of these models to the reconstruction of the pollution distribution over O
makes it possible to estimate optimal values of D'; D and time steps Dt. The present
level of the database for the Arctic Basin provides for use of a single-level Euler model
with Dt 10 days, D' D 1 (block APM). It is supposed that pollution sources
can be located at the Arctic Basin boundary. Detailed distributions of these pollution
sources are given as SSMAE input. The transport of pollutants to the Arctic Basin
and the formation of their spatial distribution are realized in conformity with the
wind velocity ®eld, which is considered as given (Krapivin and Phillips, 2001a, b).
It is postulated that oil hydrocarbons Ot; '; ; z are transformed by the follow-
ing processes (Payne et al., 1991): dissolution H 1O , evaporation H 2O , sedimentation
H 3O , oxidation H 4O , biological adsorption H 5O , bio-sedimentation H 6O , and bacterial
decomposition H 7O . The kinetics equation that describes the dynamics of oil
hydrocarbons in the Arctic Basin is given by
@O @O @O @O @ 2O X
7
v w' v w v wz QO k w2 H iO ; 6:10
@t @' @ @z @z 2 i1
where QO is the anthropogenic source of oil hydrocarbons.

The process of diusion of heavy metals in seawater depends on their state. The
dissolved fraction of heavy metals ( ) takes part in the biogeochemical processes
more intensively than suspended particles (e). But unlike suspended particles, the
heavy metals fall out more rapidly to the sediment. A description of the entire
spectrum of these processes in the framework of this study is impossible. Therefore,
block MMT describes processes that can be estimated. The transport of heavy metals
in seawater includes absorption of the dissolved fraction by plankton (H Z ) and by
nekton (H F ), sedimentation of the solid fraction (H e1 ), deposition with detritus (H D ),
adsorption by detritophages from bottom sediments (H eL ), and release from bottom
sediments owing to diusion (H ea ). As a result, the dynamic equations for heavy
metals become:
@eW @eW @eW @eW X 3

vW
' vW
vW
z i2 Q ieC H e1 1 H eC
a ; 6:11
@t @' @ @z i1
@ W @ W @ W @ W @2 W
vW
' vW
vW
z 1 1 H ea k W
2
@t @' @ @z @z 2
HZ HF HD Ha; 6:12
@e
H e1 1 H eL H ea ; 6:13
@t
@
HD 1 1 H eL H ea ; 6:14
@t
where ew ; w and e ; are the concentrations of heavy metals in the water and in the
bottom sediments as solid and dissolved phases, respectively; H a is the output of
heavy metals from the sea to the atmosphere by evaporation and spray; Q ie is the
input of heavy metals to the sea with river water (i 1), atmospheric deposition
(i 2), and ships' waste (i 3); i2 is the part of suspended particles in the ith ¯ow of
heavy metals; and 1 is the part of the solid fraction of heavy metals in bottom
sediments.
Each radionuclide of "th type is characterized by its half-life " , the rate H "1 of
input ¯ow to water area O, the accumulation rate H " in living organisms
pA ; BA ; Z; F; L, and the removal rate H "D with dead elements of the ecosystem.
As a result, the concentration Q " of radionuclide " in Oi jk is described by the
following system of equations:
@Q " @Q " W @Q
"
W @Q
"
i jk " 2 "
W @ Q
vW
' v v z H 1 k 2
@t @' @ @z @z 2
ln 2 "
H " H "D Q H " ; 6:15
"
@Q " ln 2 "
H "D H " Q ; 6:16
@t "
where Q " is the concentration of "th radionuclide in bottom sediments; and H " is the
rate of output ¯ow of the "th radionuclide from bottom sediments via desorption.
The exchange of radionuclides between the water layers as a result of migration by
living organisms is ignored as it has a small value in comparison with ¯ow H "D .
6.4.5 Simulation results

6.4.5.1 The assumptions
The SSMAE facilitates estimation of the pollution dynamics of the Arctic Basin
under various a priori suppositions about the intensities of the ¯ows of pollutants
and under other anthropogenic impacts on the ecosystems of this region. In this
section we consider some possible situations. The thermal regime of the Arctic Basin
is given by a normal distribution with average temperatures and with dispersions on
the aquatories as given by the SEDAAR (Strategic Environmental Distributed Active
Archive Resource). The scheme of transport of pollutants in the atmosphere is
adopted from Christensen (1997). The estimates of parameters for the blocks of
Table 6.6 are given by literature sources or personal recommendations (Table 6.9).
The vertical distribution of pollutants at initial moment t0 is taken as homogeneous.
The average diameters of solid particles are estimated to be in the range from 0.12 mm
to 1,000 mm and the vertical velocity of sedimentation is 0.003 m/s. The concentration
of nutrients in the ice and snow equals 0. Also it is supposed that the deep water
temperature Yt; '; 0 C and the surface ice temperature f1 t; '; 3 C for
'; 2 O. It is further supposed that " A 1 0 and that phytoplankton productivity
in the ice layer is 2.5% of the primary production in the water column
Rp;r Rp;f =Rp;w 0:025.
Let the ratio between solid and dissolved phases of heavy metals at moment
t t0 equal 1 : 2 (i.e., et0 ; '; ; z= t0 ; '; ; z 0:5). The ¯ows of heavy metals,
H Z , H F , H D , and H L , are described by linear models, H e1 0:01ew , H ea 0.
The boundaries of the Norwegian and Bering Seas are approximated by lines at
'N 62 N and 'B 51 N, respectively. The values of the other parameters are
de®ned by Wielgolaski (1997), Wania et al. (1998), Valette-Silver et al. (1999), Preller
and Cheng (1999), Bard (1999), and Rudels et al. (1991). The initial data are de®ned
in Tables 6.7 and 6.10.
Table 6.9. The values of some parameters in simulation experiments using the SSMAE.
Parameter Estimate of the parameter
Step of space digitized by

Latitude, D' 1
Longitude, D 1
Depth, Dz
z 100 m 1m
z > 100 m h 100 m
Coecient of ice heat conductivity, 1 2.21 W/m/
Coecient of water heat conductivity, 2 0.551 W/m/
Coecient of turbulent mixing, k W

2
For open water 0.5 10 4 m 2 /s
For ice-covered water bodies 5 10 6 m 2 /s
Characteristic heat of ice melting, q 334 kJ/kg
Content of biogenic elements in dead organic matter, n 0.1
Intensity of detritus decomposition, A

A g; r; f 0
AW 0.01
Velocity of current in the Bering Strait, Vi

i1 0.2 m/s
i2 0.05 m/s
Water heat capacity, C 4.18 kJ/kg/K
Ice salinity, si
i1 5%
i2 1%
Water salinity at z > 100 m, s0 34.95%
Area of the Arctic Basin, 16,795,000 km 2
Half-life period of radionuclides, "

" 60 Co 5.271 yr
" 137 Cs 30.17 yr
Critical temperature for photosynthesis, Tc 0.5 C
6.4.5.2 The dynamics of Arctic Basin radionuclear pollution

The intensity of external ¯ows through the boundaries of the Arctic Basin and the
internal ¯ows due to dead organisms H "D , sediment H " , and living organisms H " can
be described by linear models in accordance with Krapivin and Phillips (2001a, b).
Table 6.10. Input ¯ows of radionuclides, heavy metals (suspended particles e and dissolved
fraction ), and oil hydrocarbons O to O by water ¯ows taken into account in the SSMAE.
Source Flow into Concentration of pollutant

the basin
137 60
Cs Co e O
3
(km /yr) (Bq/L) (Bq/L) (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L)
Rivers:
Yenisey 600 0.5 0.5 0.3 5.1 2.3
Ob 0 400 0.1 0.1 0.4 6.9 4.7
Lena 500 0.0 0.0 1.1 8.8 6.9
Pechora 130 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.0
Northern Dvina 100 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0
Other Siberian rivers 200 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.3
North America rivers 600 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.0
Evaporation 3,500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Precipitation 5,300 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern boundary of 12,000 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.4

the Norwegian Sea
Bering Strait 10,560 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.9
Some results of the simulation experiment are given in Figures 6.5 and 6.6. Figure 6.5
shows the tendency vs. time of the average content of radionuclear pollution on the
whole Arctic water area. The distribution with depth is represented by a three-layer
model, upper waters (z < 1 km), deep water (z > 1 km), and sediments. Bottom depth
is taken as 1.5 km. More realistic depth representations of both shallow seas and the
deeper Arctic Basin will be considered in a future re®nement of the model. The curves
describe the vertical distribution with time of the radionuclide content in two water
layers and in sediments. The transfer of radionuclides from upper water to deep water
occurs at a speed which results in the reduction of radionuclear pollution in upper
water by 43.3% over 20 years. Such distributions for each Arctic sea are given in
Table 6.11.
Local variations in the vertical distribution of radionuclides are determined by
both hydrological and ecological conditions. The correlation between these con-
ditions is a function of the season. Table 6.12 gives estimates of the role of ecological
processes in the formation of the vertical distribution of the radionuclear pollution of
Arctic seas. These estimates show that the biological community plays a minor role in
radionuclide transport from upper layers to the deep ocean.
The aquatories of the White, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas are subject
to visible variations in radionuclear pollution. The accumulation of radionuclides is
observed in the Central aquatory of the Arctic Basin. The aquageosystems of the
Greenland and Kara Seas have currently unknown factors that allow radionuclear
Figure 6.5. Dynamics of the radionuclide distribution in the Arctic Basin. It is assumed that at
moment t0 0 radionuclear pollutants ( 137 Cs, 60 Co; see Tables 6.7 and 6.10) can only be found
in the upper water layer z 1 km. The curves show the radionuclear pollutant distribution with
time in the two water layers and in the sediments obtained by averaging the simulation results
for all of the northern seas.
Figure 6.6. In¯uence of variations in river ¯ow on Arctic Basin pollution level. Here D1 is the
percentage variation in river ¯ow to O with respect to the value averaged on OR in the last three
years and D2 is the content of pollutant averaged on all rivers in OR and normalized to the initial
data (such that D2 1 for D1 0).
Table 6.11. Distribution of radionuclear pollution in Arctic aquatories 30 years and 50 years
later (%).
Aquatory G N B K r L E S X F U
(see Table 6.7)
30 years after t0
z 1 km 50 60 69 46 73 44 43 57 58 61 68
z > 1 km 49 39 29 52 26 54 54 39 39 34 29
Bottom 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 4 3 3 3
50 years after t0
z 1 km 65 57 70 66 70 50 49 62 59 58 70
z > 1 km 30 38 24 27 21 47 46 32 37 34 26
Bottom 5 5 6 7 9 3 5 6 4 8 4
Table 6.12. Some simulation experiment results using the SSMAE to estimate the vertical
distribution of radionuclides in the Arctic Basin. The contribution of ecological processes to
formation of the vertical distribution in the radionuclide content of the water is represented by
the parameter (%). The average content of phytoplankton is represented by the parameter pw
(g/m 2 ).
Aquatory Seasons
Winter Spring Summer Fall
w s u a
pw pw pw pw
Greenland Sea 3.2 2 8.4 10 5.7 5 6.3 5
Norwegian Sea 2.9 2 7.8 9 5.9 5 6.7 6
Barents Sea 2.1 1 8.9 11 6.8 6 7.1 6
Kara Sea 2.4 1 9.2 12 5.3 5 6.0 5
White Sea 2.2 1 7.6 9 6.3 6 6.4 5
Laptev Sea 0.9 1 2.4 4 1.3 2 1.4 2
E. Siberian Sea 1.3 1 2.7 4 1.9 3 2.1 3
Bering Sea 2.5 2 7.1 9 3.9 4 5.3 4
Chukchi Sea 2.3 2 6.9 8 4.1 4 5.1 4
Beaufort Sea 1.9 2 5.7 7 4.8 4 4.9 4
Central Basin 1.0 1 1.7 2 1.5 2 1.6 2
Average value 2.1 1.5 6.2 7.7 4.3 4.2 4.8 4.0
Figure 6.7. In¯uence of the Barents Sea ecosystem on the dynamics of oil hydrocarbons in
seawater. Curves 1 and 2 show the simulation results for phytoplankton (solid curve) and oil
hydrocarbons (dashed curve), respectively. Curves 3 and 4 show the yearly distribution of
phytoplankton in the southwestern, northern and, northeastern aquatories of the Barents Sea,
respectively. From Terziev (1992).
pollution to build up, while in the Norwegian Sea the pollution level actually
decreases.
A degree of stability can be observed in the vertical distribution of radionuclides.
This is generally achieved between 5 and 7 years following initial moment t0 with the
exception of the East Siberian, Laptev and Kara Seas where the stabilization
processes of vertical distribution are delayed by 10±12 years.
The results of simulation experiments show that variations of the initial data by
100% change the stabilization time by no more than 30%, so that the distributions
take shape in 4±8 years. One unstable parameter is river ¯ow into the Arctic Basin.
Figure 6.7 shows variations in simulation results under a change in river ¯ow to the
Arctic Basin. Radionuclear pollution is reduced by 80% when river ¯ow decreases by
50%. While river ¯ow increases by 50% the radionuclear pollution of the Arctic basin
increases by only 58%. Hence, a 50% error in river ¯ow estimate can cause a
<100% deviation of the simulation results for radionuclear pollutants. As follows
from the other curves of Figure 6.6, such deviations are less for heavy metals and oil
hydrocarbons.
The SSMAE allows estimation of a wide spectrum of radionuclear pollution
parameters. Thus, this study shows the dependence of the biological transformation
mechanism on initial prerequisites. The biological transport of radionuclides down-
ward from the mixed layer varies in a wide interval from months to scores of years.
Vertical transport by biological elements is divided between 11% by the movement of
living organisms and 89% for transport by dead organisms. Again, there is a degree
of stability here in that the lower trophic levels of the Arctic ecosystem have a greater
concentration of radionuclides than higher trophic levels. But, it is evident that for a
higher precision of block MPR the model of biological processes must consider
separately each radioactive element and its interaction with plankton.
6.4.5.3 The dynamics of Arctic Basin pollution by heavy metals

The results of the simulation experiment are given in Table 6.13. We can see that
the average content of heavy metals across the full water area of the Arctic Basin
stabilizes after 3±5 years. Under this stable regime, the concentration of heavy metals
in compartments OR [ OP (river mouths and ports) is six times higher than in the
Central aquatory and twice as high in OG [ OB [ ON (near-shore waters, the Bering
Strait, and the southern boundary of the Norwegian Sea). The concentration of
heavy metals in phytoplankton is 18% lower than in zooplankton and 29% lower
Table 6.13. Results of the simulation experiment on estimates of the parameters involved in
pollution of Arctic waters by heavy metals. From Kondratyev et al. (2002a, b).
Parameter Estimate of the parameter after Dt years
Dt 1 Dt 3 Dt 5 Dt 10 Dt 15 Dt 20
Average concentration of
heavy metals in the
biomass (ppm)
Phytoplankton 0.011 0.012 0.016 0.024 0.036 0.037
Zooplankton 0.013 0.014 0.019 0.028 0.041 0.043
Nekton 0.015 0.017 0.022 0.04 0.07 0.07
Detritophages 0.033 0.037 0.048 0.088 0.15 0.16
Average content of heavy 0.022 0.027 0.036 0.037 0.038 0.038

metals in Arctic waters
(ppm)
Flow of heavy metals

from the upper layer to
deep layers
(mg m 2 da 1 )
Norwegian Sea 0.71 1.07 1.14 1.17 1.19 1.22
Barents Sea 0.72 1.08 1.25 1.19 1.24 1.16
Greenland Sea 0.26 0.62 0.71 0.82 0.76 0.89
White Sea 0.11 0.23 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.2
Kara Sea 0.34 0.47 0.57 0.61 0.63 0.64
Laptev Sea 0.55 0.78 0.81 0.89 0.74 0.77
East Siberian Sea 0.59 0.79 0.95 0.97 1.02 1.07
Chukchi Sea 0.88 0.83 1.54 1.49 1.31 1.44
Beaufort Sea 0.34 0.67 0.66 0.81 0.74 0.69
than in nekton. The process of accumulation of heavy metals in the upper trophic
levels can be seen; moreover, the ratio of the concentration of heavy metals in
phytoplankton to that of other trophic levels varies from 0.3 in OR [ OP to 0.5 in
the open part of the Arctic Basin.
The distribution of heavy metals in seawater is characterized by more rapid
accumulation in water areas adjoining the western coastline of Novaya Zemlya
and situated at the boundary between the Jan±Mayen and East Iceland currents.
The central water area of the Arctic Basin has a quasi-uniform distribution of heavy
metal concentration. The vertical gradients of heavy metals vary in the interval from
0.11 m 2 da 1 to 1.54 mg m 2 da 1 . The vertical distributions of the dissolved
fraction ( W ) and suspended particles (eW ) of heavy metals are not obviously
expressed. The average ratio of the concentration of heavy metals in sediment and
in water ( e = W eW ) varies over the area of the Arctic Basin from 1.9 to
5.7. For example, this ratio for the Bering Sea is 3.3. The contribution of the
biosedimentation process to the vertical distribution of heavy metals varies from
0.23 mg m 2 da 1 to 1.24 mg m 2 da 1 . The SSMAE provides the possibility of
estimating the characteristics for separate types of heavy metals. An example of such
calculations is given in Table 6.14.
Table 6.14. Estimates of heavy metal ¯ows to and from the atmosphere. From Kondratyev et
al. (2002b).
Parameter
Heavy metal Atmospheric deposition, Q 2e Evaporation and spray, H

(mg/m 2 /h) (t/yr)
Ag 0.7 7
Cd 1.1 58
Co 0.3 5
Cr 1.8 188
Cu 15 169
Fe 599 894
Hg 0.6 3
Mn 4.2 283
Ni 5.5 60
Pb 48 5
Sb 0.05 123
Zn 109 4,471
6.4.5.4 The dynamics of Arctic Basin pollution by oil hydrocarbons

Spatial distributions forecast for oil hydrocarbons in Arctic water areas for 5 years
after t0 were obtained under the following restrictions: Ot0 ; '; ; z,
H 1O 0.1 mg m 3 da 1 , H 2O 0 for gt > 0 and H 2O 0.01 mg m 3 da 1 for
gt 0 and z Dz1 , H 3O 0.01 mg m 3 da 1 , H 4O 0.01 mg m 3 da 1 ,
1=3
H 5O kD D A (the adsorption coecient kD 0 for A g; r; f and kD 0.005 da 1
when A W), H 6O kZ Z 1=4 (the biosedimentation coecient kZ 0 when
A g; r; f and kZ 0.004 da 1 for A W), H 7O kB BA (the bacterial destruction
coecient kB 0.01 da 1 for A g; r; f and kB 0.05 when A W). Simulation
experiments show that the anthropogenic sources of oil hydrocarbons (QO ) estimated
by Mcintyre (1999) are transformed to other forms by 56% in surface snow, ¯oating
ice, and submerged ice and by 72% in water. Stabilization of the distribution of oil
hydrocarbons is realized 3 years after t0 . The average level of oil pollution in the
Arctic Basin reaches 0.005 mg/L. This is lower than the natural level of World Ocean
pollution. In the zone of in¯uence of the Gulf Stream and in Paci®c waters an
insigni®cant increase in this level is observed. The Barents and Kara Seas are the
most polluted. Here the concentration of oil hydrocarbons reaches the value
0.03 mg/L. The average summary content of oil hydrocarbons in the Arctic
Basin is 65,331 t (metric tons) with a dispersion of 32%. The hierarchy of
¯ows H iO (i 1; . . . ; 7) (see Equation (6.10)) is estimated by the set
H 2O > H 4O > H 1O > H 5O > H 6O > H 7O . This set changes for each of the Arctic seas.
The order of preponderance of destruction processes H iO of oil hydrocarbons is
de®ned by seasonal conditions. Oxidation at the expense of evaporation of oil
hydrocarbons (H 2O ) prevails over the other processes in summer.
In reality, oil hydrocarbons evaporated from the surface of Arctic seas return to
the Arctic Basin from precipitation. These processes are simulated in blocks APM
and PSM. The maximal destruction of oil hydrocarbons is 0.0028 g m 2 da 1 . The
¯ow H 7O due to bacterial decomposition averages 27 t yr 1 . It has unequal values for
dierent seas (t yr 1 ): Bering 3.7, Greenland 11, Norwegian 2.2, Barents 3.4, Kara
2.3, White 2.3, Laptev 2.8, East Siberian 2.8, Chukchi 3.4, Beaufort 2.5, and Central
Basin 0.5.
The total estimate of the role of the Arctic Basin ecosystem in the dynamics of oil
hydrocarbons can be traced for each Arctic sea. As an example, Figure 6.7 gives such
results for the Barents Sea. The discrepancy between simulation results (solid curve 1)
and the data of curves 2 and 3 (Terziev, 1992) is explained by the assumption that the
trophic structures of dierent Arctic seas are described by means of the general
scheme represented in Figure 6.3 and discrimination between the ecological elements
in each Arctic sea is not taken into consideration in the SSMAE.
Figure 6.7 indicates that the vegetative period for phytoplankton in the Barents
Sea lasts 4.9 months as shown by the ecosystem's contribution to the self-cleaning of
oil hydrocarbons (dashed curve). In the case considered, the Barents Sea ecosystem
neutralizes about 25% of oil hydrocarbons during the vegetative period. The rest of
the time this value oscillates near 3%. Dispersion of these estimates with latitude
reaches 53%. For example, in the northern part of the Barents Sea the vegetative
period lasts from 2.6 to 3.1 months, while in southern latitudes the variation is 5.3±5.8
months. Consequently the ecosystem's role in the self-cleaning of oil hydrocarbons is
8% and 36% for northern and southern water areas, respectively. Such estimates can
be calculated for each cell D' D Dz of the Arctic Basin.
6.4.5.5 The dynamics of pollutants in the Arctic Basin

Determining and understanding the role of the various pollutant sources in
forming the pollution levels for dierent Arctic Basin areas are important issues
(McCauley and Meier, 1991). A major function of the SSMAE is to estimate the
pollution dynamics in each of cells Oi j O as a function of time. The in¯uence of
pollutant sources on the Arctic ecosystem occurs through the boundary area
OR [ OP [ OB [ ON [ OG and through the atmosphere. A full picture of the spatial
distribution of pollutants can be formed from local dynamic processes. The incom-
pleteness of the Arctic database forces some scenarios to be considered and some
assumptions to be made in an attempt to make inde®nite Arctic system parameters
concrete. Krapivin et al. (1998) estimated the ¯ow of pollutants to the Kara Sea based
on experimental measurements of radionuclear pollution and heavy metals in the
Angara±Yenisey river system. Therefore, the SSMAE is used to estimate the ¯ow of
pollutants from the Kara Sea to the other water areas of the Arctic Basin.
The Ob 0 and Yenisey Rivers are considered to be the main sources of radio-
nuclear pollution, heavy metals, and oil hydrocarbons for the Kara Sea (Table 6.10).
Figure 6.8 shows the in¯uence of river ¯ow on the volume of pollutants transported
by the Kara Sea aquageosystem to the Central Basin. As shown by curves 1 and 2, the
transfer of heavy metals and radionuclides from the Ob 0 and Yenisey Rivers through
the Kara Sea aquageosystem to the Central water areas of the Arctic Basin amounts
to 2.1% when the river ¯ow varies from 500 km 3 /yr to 1,000 km 3 /yr and after that it
begins to grow linearly up to 7.6% for 2,000 km 3 /yr. Hence, there is a critical level of
pollution for the Kara Sea ecosystem beyond which it does not have time to dilute the
¯ow of heavy metals and radionuclear pollutants. Similar estimations can be
obtained for the other elements of set OR using the rivers referred to in Table 6.10.
The SSMAE allows for estimation of the ¯ow of pollutants between the dierent
water areas of the Arctic Basin. For example, the transport of heavy metals and oil
hydrocarbons from the Barents Sea to the Kara Sea is 631 kg yr 1 and 473 kg yr 1 ,
respectively. The total ¯ow of pollutants from the Russian coastline to Alaska varies
in Table 6.10 between 0.3% and 0.9% of the initial ¯ow. As is evident from curves 3
and 4 of Figure 6.8, the ¯ow of the Ob 0 and Yenisey Rivers has practically no
in¯uence on the pollution level of Arctic waters near Alaska. This eect does not
change over time.
6.4.6 Summary and conclusions

We will discuss here three aspects of the SSMAE which are very important. The
®rst concerns the incorporation of ecological, hydrophysical, climatic, and biogeo-
chemical relationships in a model simulating the dynamics of Arctic Basin pollution.
Figure 6.8. Dependence of the concentrations of heavy metals ( e) and radionuclides

(" 137 Cs 60 Co) at dierent geographical points as a function of the ¯ow (F) of the Ob 0
and Yenisey Rivers to the Kara Sea. The interval F1 ; F2 between the dashed lines corresponds
to the range of variations of F in the real world. Curves 1 and 2 show concentrations of the
heavy metals and radionuclides, respectively, at the point '; 75 N, 65 E in the northwestern
part of the Kara Sea. Curves 3 and 4 show the concentrations of heavy metals and radionuclides,
respectively, at the point !; 72 N, 150 W above the Alaskan north coast.
The main problem here is how to parameterize these relationships to achieve the
requisite precision. The second concerns the key problem of database conformity to
the model. In this case, the task lies in adapting the spatiotemporal scale to the
database. The third concerns the user's ability to run the SSMAE in the scenario
space.
This investigation shows that simulation experiments provide the possibility of
studying both the common and spatial distributions of pollutant dynamics in the
Arctic Basin. The precision of the results is a function both of the scenarios and the
ways in which elements in Equations (6.1)±(6.16) are parameterized. It is obvious that
the SSMAE is not eective when climate conditions reach a critical state or when the
anthropogenic impacts are increased to a critical value. But, in the SSMAE the Arctic
Basin acts as a stabilizing sub-system of the biosphere. When the atmospheric
temperature reaches 1 C, there occurs an inverse connection in the water balance
of the atmosphere±land±sea system, which acts to stabilize the estimates. Parameter-
ization of such variations in the framework of the SSMAE is not convenient.
Nevertheless, by connecting the SSMAE to a global database having estimates of
such parameters as ice area, temperature, and albedo distributions, will allow the use
of the SSMAE in the present form. The eectiveness of the SSMAE will increase
using such models as the coupled ice±ocean model described in Riedlinger and Preller
(1991). In general, many dierent modi®cations of the SSMAE are possible. But, it is
obvious that movement to the optimal SSMAE structure demands greater accuracy
in pollutant types, ecosystem structure, water cycle, ice movement, and climate
model. The main diculty is optimal modi®cation at the same time for each of
the blocks of the SSMAE.
The pollution level of the Arctic Basin is formed mainly by river ¯ows. Because
of this, block MRF plays a very important role in the SSMAE. Regular monitoring
of water ¯ows and pollutant inputs by rivers to the SSMAE is impossible.
Consequently, the study and measurement of these ¯ows during scienti®c expeditions
and the modeling of the results are necessary steps in the investigation of Arctic Basin
pollution.
A good example of such a step is the U.S./Russian expedition of 1995 which
obtained on-site measurements of pollution levels in the Yenisey and its tributary
the Angara, in its attempt to investigate the likely origins of land-based sources
contributing to pollution levels in the Yenisey estuary.
SSMAE veri®cation is important. It will be possible to realize this after essential
modi®cations to the SSMAE, using models of greater precision to account for
hydrological, biogeochemical, ecological, and climatic processes. The present
SSMAE structure is part of the new technology of Arctic Basin pollution monitoring.
Greater accuracy in the SSMAE may be realized by means of simulation experiments
in which model parameters are varied over wide intervals. However, that is beyond
the scope of this chapter.
Let us now look at several results of this investigation. In the nuclear war
scenario, for example, the SSMAE shows that Arctic environmental stability would
be disturbed 3 months after the impact. From other scenarios, it follows that
variations in the velocity of vertical advection from 0.004 cm/s to 0.05 cm/s does
not aect the Arctic environmental state. An error of 32% in ice area estimate leads
to a variation in simulation results of 36%. When this error is more than 32%,
simulation results become less stable and can vary by several times. The problem
exists of ®nding the proper criterion to estimate SSMAE sensitivity to variations in
model parameters. As Krapivin (1996) showed, a survivability function Jt re¯ecting
the dynamics of the total biomass of living elements would enable this sensitivity to
be estimated. In this instance
5
X H';
Bi t; '; ; z d' d dz
i1 ';2O 0
Jt H'; :
X5
Bi t0 ; '; ; z d' d dz
i1 ';2O 0
Index Jt provides an estimate of the uncertainty associated with SSMAE

parameters. Although a complete investigation of the in¯uence of SSMAE parameter
variations on model results should be done independently, various estimates are given
here. Preliminary simulation results show that the SSMAE permits variations in the
initial data between 70% to 150%. A great degree of uncertainty (50%) is
permitted in the value of such parameters as A , n , Vi , Tc , Topt , 1 , and ki j . The
Sec. 6.5] 6.5 Interactions in the Arctic system 387
correlation between variations in these parameters and model results is linear. How-
ever, high model sensitivity is observed under variations of A , A , E0 , and T0 . In
general terms, the acceptable variation of these parameters is 20%. Moreover, the
deviation in model results due to variations in these parameters is non-linear. For
example, ¯uctuations of surface temperature T0 within 5 K are not hazardous to the
system, causing small variations in Jt by 10%, but ¯uctuations of T0 by 7 K
cause much larger variations (30%) in the value of Jt. Under such a scenario the
time dependence of system dynamics to variations in parameters is diverse.
The SSMAE does not completely describe the processes taking place in the Arctic
Basin. The optimal extension of SSMAE functions is possible using environmental
monitoring to control parametric and functional model inputs. In this framework,
prognosis of the Arctic aquageosystem state can be realized on the basis of the
SSMAE and by processing observational data.
6.5 INTERACTIONS IN THE ARCTIC SYSTEM
The Arctic region is a mosaic of freshwater, terrestrial, and marine ecosystems

intimately interactive with factors of the nature±society system. Interactions include
many components such as ocean/atmosphere/ice, land/atmosphere/ice, and land/
ocean/freshwater. An interpretation and prediction of correlations between the
processes occurring in the Arctic environment is possible only in the framework of
the complex approach to the study of these processes. This approach is based on
GIMS technology (Kelley et al., 1992, 1999; Kondratyev et al., 2002a, b). The
interaction between the atmosphere, land, and sea ecosystems under the Arctic
climate is characterized by a series of spatiotemporal scales. An understanding of
the interior correlations at every level is key to environmental monitoring. Each scale
has a speci®c landscape, vegetation cover, topography, character of both hydrophy-
sical and weather structures, and living elements. Discovery of the internal and
external correlations between these elements and other elements of the NSS makes
it possible to form a database for an Arctic Basin monitoring system.
Interactions between the Arctic components of the global NSS have been studied
by many authors (McCauley and Meier, 1991; Trites et al., 1999; Kondratyev and
Johannessen, 1993; Riedlinger and Preller, 1991; Preller and Cheng, 1999; Kelley and
Gosink, 1992). A good example of these interactions is the Angara/Yenisey river
system in Siberia. The intensive industrial development of northern Russian
territories has led to signi®cant environmental changes in these regions (Morgan
and Codispoti, 1995). Major quantities of pollutants are brought to the northern
coast of Russia by rivers, thus threatening the balance of ecosystems of the northern
seas. The Angara±Yenisey river system (AYRS) is no exception.
The Yenisey River ¯ows northward to the Kara Sea along the boundary between
the western Siberian ¯oodplain and the central uplands, draining an area of about
2.6 million km 2 over its 4,100 km length. The ¯ow rate of the Yenisey into the
Kara Sea has large seasonal variations, averaging 19,800 m 3 /s, reaching as much
as 130,000 m 3 /s during the spring. The Angara, a major tributary, accounts for about
one-fourth of the total ¯ow. It ¯ows swiftly northward from Lake Baikal for about
one-third of its 1,850 km length, before turning westward toward its con¯uence with
the Yenisey. Recognizing that major sources of the radionuclides found in the Kara
Sea, as well as other environmental pollutants, might lie in the Siberian watersheds of
the Yenisey and the Angara, a joint Russian±American expedition was undertaken in
July and August of 1995. The region under study included the ®ve hydroelectric dams
at Krasnoyarsk and Sayano-Shushenskoye on the Yenisey and at Irkutsk, Bratsk,
and Ust-Ilimsk on the Angara. The power output from these facilities fostered rapid
industrial growth in this region. Krasnoyarsk is the major industrial city located on
the upper reaches of the Yenisey. Nearby is the nuclear production and processing
facility, Krasnoyarsk-26, which is situated approximately 270 km upstream of the
Angara±Yenisey junction. Along the Angara River, there are ®ve cities with major
industrial activities: Irkutsk, Angarsk, Usolye-Sibirskoye, Svirsk, and Bratsk. These
cities have facilities producing both radionuclides and chemical pollutants, possible
pollutant sources in the two rivers.
Samples of Angara River water and sediment were taken near its source at Lake
Baikal and at selected sites of interest downstream of its junction with the Yenisey
River near the lumber-processing village of Strelka. Along the Yenisey sampling was
conducted on both sides of the junction just upstream of the village of Kazachinskoye
and continuing downstream to the town of Lesosibirsk.
As Krapivin (1995) showed, complex evaluation of the pollution level in the
Arctic Basin as a whole is possible by synthesizing a mathematical model of pollutant
transport by rivers from adjacent territories.
6.5.1 The Angara±Yenisey river system simulation model

Following Krapivin (1995), a block diagram of the AYRSSM (AYRS simulation
model) is given in Figure 6.9. The AYRSSM has three levels of blocks (AYRSSM
blocks are described in Table 6.15). The two blocks of the ®rst level take control of
the models of dierent processes and various regimes of the computer experiments.
Block HYD simulates river ¯ow and considers the correlation between the water
regime and ecological, topographical, and synoptical parameters of the territory
studied. Block CON brings together functions of the informational interface between
the user and other AYRSSM blocks. The main function of CON is forming the
database and identi®cation of AYRS elements. The four blocks of the second level
analyze input information and synthesize the AYRSSM structure. The 26 blocks of
the third level bring about concrete models and processes during the computer
experiment.
Let us suppose that the AYRS watershed has area O. The spatial structure of O is
determined by the spatial discretization of the AYRS surface with a uniform geo-
graphic grid with latitude ' and longitude divided into steps of D' and D,
respectively. In this study, we suppose D' D 0:1 . As a result, the area
!
[
N X N
O Ok , where Ok is part of O of area k D' D, k . The cells Ok
i1 k1
Figure 6.9. Structure of the AYRSSM.
are situated along the AYRS beginning with O1 at the Angara River source up to ON
in the Yenisey River mouth. The procedure of spatial discretization is provided for by
the IAS block by including in the AYRSSM database the set of identi®ers Ak ka kij k,
k 1; . . . ; 5. The hydrology regime of the AYRS is described by the schematic
diagram of Figure 6.10. Equations for this scheme can now be written in the form
of balance correlations for each of the Ok (k 1; . . . ; N):

@W @W @W
k ' V Bk D T L; 6:17
@t @' @

@C @C
k k k k B J K V U F M R; 6:18
@t @x
dF
1 k k U F M N 1 k k B
dt
T L K P; 6:19

@G @G @G
k v' v R P J N D; 6:20
@t @' @
Table 6.15. List of blocks of the AYRSSM, whose scheme is presented in Figure 6.9.
Identi®er of Description of the unit

the block
CHD Takes control of parameterizing hydrophysical and hydrological processes

in the AYRS.
CON Interface control of the computer experiment..
FLOW Model of river run-o.
STRM Simulation procedure that re¯ects water mass motion in the AYRS.
EVAP The choice of model to parameterize the process of evaporation.
QUAL The choice of criterion to assess water quality.
WRR Model of the water regime in a water body.
EFM An empirical model of river run-o.
RWS Model to simulate how river run-o spreads beyond the riverbed.
INP Model of in®ltration.
SPR Model of the sink taking into account the eect of vegetation and soil
covers.
VMG Model of the vertical uplifting of ground water in evaporation, feeding, and
ex®ltration.
FTM Model of ®ltration.
EPM An empirical model of precipitation.
THP A speci®ed model of transpiration.
RUM The Kuzmin model (Kuzmin, 1957).
TRM A simple model of transpiration.
SES Model of snowmelt and evaporation from snow surface.
EBM Parameterization of evaporation using the method of energy balance.
PEM The Penman model (Penman, 1948).
PRI The Penman model as speci®ed by Priestley (Bras, 1990).
KRP The Penman model as speci®ed by Kohler and Richards (1962).
SIM A simpli®ed version of the Penman model.

Identi®er of Description of the unit

the block
EEE Empirical models of evaporation.
KOH The Kohler model (Bras, 1990).
HOM The Horton model (Bras, 1990).
BIO A simulation model of sedimentation and biological assimilation of

pollutants.
POL A simulation model of the formation of anthropogenic ¯uxes of pollutants.
TWT Model of the process of water temperature formation.
RAK Model of kinetics of the radionuclide pollution of water.
CPK Model of kinetics of the chemical pollution of water.
COD Database correction.
SCE The choice and formation of scenario for the simulation experiment.
VIP Visualization of simulation experiment results.
AAS Adaptation of the AYRSSM to the scenario of the simulation experiment.
IAS Referencing the AYRSSM to spatiotemporal scales.
where ' and are projections for the wind speed; k is the part of area Ok occupied
by the river; is the speed at which the river ¯ows; v' and v are speed projections for
ground water motion; x is the direction of river ¯ow; and t is time.
The functions on the right-hand side of Equations (6.17)±(6.20) are described by
mathematical expressions in accordance with Krapivin et al. (1996a, b) and Bras
(1990). Appropriate models are given in Table 6.15. There are various realizations
of these functions. This provides the user of the AYRSSM with the possibility of
forming scenarios for computer experiments. The values of , , and v were estimated
using the Irkutsk Scienti®c Center database. It is possible for the user to vary these
parameters during the calculation process. In this study, average values of these
parameters are estimated by 3.3 m/s, 1.7 m/s, and v 0. Variations in
parameter are realized by adapting the left part of Equation (6.18) to the empirical
data illustrated in Figure 6.10. Boundary conditions for Equations (6.17)±(6.20)
are formed by the global model (Krapivin, 1993). Soil moisture transport between
cells Ok is disregarded. Synoptic situations are described by a discrete scheme
with temporal parameters ti (i 1; . . . ; 4), where t1 is the beginning of summer, t2
is the start of winter, t3 is the end of winter, and t4 is the time of the spring thaw
when snow and ice are melting. Between these times the synoptic situation does not
change.
Figure 6.10. Block diagram of the AYRS water regime on area Ok (k 1; . . . ; N). The func-
tions W, B, C, G, and F are given in meters. All the other functions are in cubic meters per day.
In the common case, the vertical structure of the river water area in Ok
(k 1; . . . ; N) is described by block SES (Krapivin, 1995). A snow layer of thickness
gk is formed at the expense of ¯ow Bk according to:

dgk 0; when t 2
= t2 ; t3 ;
6:21
dt Bk ; when t 2 t2 ; t3 .
For t 2 t3 ; t4 the value of gk t; '; decreases linearly from gk t3 ; '; to
gk t4 ; '; 0. The functional representation of the other blocks from Table 6.15
is realized at times ti (i 1; . . . ; 4) by values which are given by the user for scenario
realization. The dynamics of pollutants in the AYRS is determined by the structure of
its hydrological regime, which takes into account the transport of pollutants by water
motion and their accumulation in sediments, ice, snow, and the living biomass.
Pollutant types are divided into radionuclear elements and heavy metals. The set
of radionuclear pollutants is described by index . The set of heavy metals is divided
into particles (index e) and the dissolved fraction (index ).
The th radionuclide is characterized by its half-life t , by the rates Hk of input
to and output from area Ok (k 1; . . . ; N), and by the concentrations of Q , E , X ,
and S in the water, soil, sediment, and ground water, respectively. As a result the
main balance equations of the RAK block can be written in the form:

@Qk; @Qk;
Dk k H1; H2; H3; H4; H5; H6; H7;
@t @x
ln 2
k H12; D Q ; 6:22
t k k;
@Ek;
k H8; H4; H9; H10; 1 k H12;
@t
ln 2
k Ek; ; 6:23
t
@Xk; ln 2
k H5; H6; k Xk; ; 6:24
@t t

@Sk; @Sk; @Sk;
yk v' v H7; H10; H2; H9; H11;
@t @' @
ln 2
yk Sk; ; 6:25
t
where H1; is the rate of radionuclide leaching from the soil with ¯ow K; H2; is the
radionuclide input to the river from ground water with ¯ow J; H3; is the transport of
radionuclides to area Ok through the boundary of O by AYRS tributaries; H4; is the
radionuclides carried out with ¯ows U, F, and M; H5; is radionuclide sedimentation
at the river bottom by gravitation and with the dead biomass of the river ecosystem;
H6; is the leaching of radionuclides from sediments; H7; is the radionuclide leakage
to ground water with ¯ow R; H8; is the anthropogenic source of radionuclides; H9;
is radionuclide input to the soil from ground water by ¯ow N; H10; is radionuclide
leaching from the soil to the ground water by P ¯ow; H11; is the radionuclide loss by
sedimentation in ground water; and H12; is radionuclide input by rain. The quantities
Dk k k Ck , yk k Gk , k lk 1 k k , and k rk k k , where lk is the thickness
of the ecient soil layer on area Ok , and rk is the thickness of the sediment layer.
Flows Hi; (i 1; . . . ; 12) can be parameterized by linear models according to
Krapivin (1995) and Nitu et al. (2000a). The BIO and CPK blocks are described by
similar balance models in analogy with the models described by Somes (1999) and
Kram (1999). AYRS biology is given in the form of a scenario or is described by
the model of Legendre and Krapivin (1992). The ¯ows of heavy metals include the
assimilation of dissolved fractions by plankton (H Z ) and by nekton (H F ), the
sedimentation of solid fractions (H 1e ), the absorption from sediments by living
elements (H Le; ), sedimentation with dead organic matter (H D ), and the discharge
from sediments (H ae; ) by erosion, diagenesis, turbulence, and anthropogenic impacts.
The balance equations taking these ¯ows into account have the same form as
Equations (6.22)±(6.25):
X 3
@ew @e
Dk k w i2 Q ie; H 1e 1 H ae; ; 6:26
@t @x i1

@ w @
Dk k k 1 1 H ae; H Z H D; 6:27
@t @x
@e
k H 1e 1 H Le; H ae; ; 6:28
@t
@
k HD 1 1 H Le; H ae; ; 6:29
@t
where ew ; e and w ; are heavy metal concentrations in water, sediments as
solid and dissolved phases, respectively; Q ie; is the heavy metal input from AYRS
tributaries (i 1), from atmospheric precipitation (i 2), and from industrial waste
(i 3); 1 is the solid fraction part in bottom sediments and i2 is the solid particle
part in the ith ¯ow of heavy metals. The removal of heavy metals from water by
evaporation and sprays is disregarded.
Approximate solutions to the initial value problem for Equations (6.17)±(6.29)
are realized by means of the quasi-linearization method (Nitu et al., 2000b).
6.5.2 In situ measurements

To get data for the AYRSSM database, the joint U.S./Russian expedition to Siberia's
Angara and Yenisey Rivers was conducted in the summer of 1995 (Phillips et al.,
1997; Krapivin et al., 1998). Sampling began at the town of Bolshaya Rechka on the
Angara near Lake Baikal and continued past the cities of Irkutsk, Angarsk, and
Bratsk, with a side trip on the Kitoy River, near Angarsk. The expedition then
proceeded to the Yenisey±Angara junction. Sampling began near the village of
Kulakovo upstream on the Angara and continued downstream to the junction with
the Yenisey at the logging town of Strelka. On the Yenisey, sampling began near the
village of Kazachinskoye above the junction and continued downstream past the
industrial complex at Lesosibirsk below the junction. Figure 6.11 shows points of
measurements during this expedition. The water balance of the AYRS was calculated
with the data given in Figure 6.12. Some results from this expedition are given in
Tables 6.16±6.19. A mobile radionuclide analysis system consisting of a mechanically
cooled germanium gamma-ray spectrometer in a lead shield was set up on-site in
Irkutsk. The results of this analysis are given in Table 6.16. An X-ray-¯uorescent
spectrometer (XRF) was also set up on-site and used to screen samples for heavy
Table 6.16. Results of measurements of the content of radionuclides in river bottom sediments
made in July 1996 (averaged data of isotopic activity, Bq/kg of dry weight). Places of sampling
are marked in the map in Figure 6.12 and are listed in Table 6.17.
60 137 152 235 238
Place of sampling Co Cs Eu U U
Angara
Upstream of the Irkutsk dam <2.0 2.2 1.0 <3.1 <1.9 <280
Downstream of the Irkutsk dam <3.5 <3.6 <5.3 27.2 4.6 720 300
Angarsk (technical canal) <2.0 <1.8 <3.1 <1.7 <320
Upstream of Angarsk <4.1 25.2 3.1 <6.0 <4.2 <630
Upstream of the Bratsk dam <2.3 <2.3 <3.9 <2.2 <420
Downstream of the Bratsk dam <2.6 3.4 1.2 <4.0 <2.5 <440
Before the con¯uence of the <1.9 2.2 1.0 <2.8 <1.7 <290
Angara with the Yenisey
Yenisey
Upstream of Kazachinskoye 8.6 1.9 22.9 2.3 6.7 3.0 <2.7 <500
Kazachinskoye 241 11 392 12 151 27 <8.2 <1,340
Downstream of Kazachinskoye 30.1 3.0 203 5 42.3 9.5 <3.8 <680
Con¯uence of the Angara <4.5 <840

with the Yenisey
(the settlement Strelka)
Downstream of Lesosibirsk 96.95.1 2116 55.713.5 <6.4 <860

<5.7 27.1 3.8 <8.2
metals. After the expedition, samples were sent to a commercial laboratory for
element analysis. The results of this analysis are given in Tables 6.18 and 6.19. Results
for each of these two categories of pollutants are discussed below.
6.5.2.1 Radionuclides in river sediment

The synthetic radioisotope 137 Cs (which has a 30-year half-life) was detected in all
samples analyzed above the Irkutsk dam, with concentrations ranging from 2 Bq kg 1
to 12 Bq kg 1 (dry weight). These values are consistent with background levels
expected due to global fall-out as a residual from atmospheric nuclear testing. Below
the Irkutsk dam in the vicinity of the cities of Irkutsk and Angarsk, measured 137 Cs
concentrations ranged from <4 Bq kg 1 to 30 Bq kg 1 , indicating that some of the
Table 6.17. Results of on-site radionuclide measurements in river sediment.
Sample ID Weighted average isotopic activity (Bq/kg of dry weight)*

60 137 152 235 238
Co Cs Eu U U
Angara River
I1 <2.0 2.2 1.0 <3.1 <1.9 <280
I2 <3.5 < 3.6 <5.3 27.2 4.6 720 300
I3 <3.7 30.6 2.6 <5.1 <3.7 <580
A1 <2.0 < 1.8 <3.1 <1.7 <320
A2 <4.1 25.2 3.1 <6.0 <4.2 <630
B1 <2.3 < 2.3 <3.9 <2.2 <420
B2 <2.6 3.4 1.2 <4.0 <2.5 <440
J1 <1.9 2.2 1.0 <2.8 <1.7 <290
Yenisey River
J2 8.6 1.9 22.9 2.3 6.7 3.0 <2.7 <500
J3 241 11 392 12 151 27 <8.2 <1340
J4 96.9 5.1 211 6 55.7 13.5 <4.5 <840
J6 <5.7 27.1 3.8 <8.2 <6.4 <860
J7 30.1 3.0 203 5 42.3 9.5 <3.8 <680*
* Errors given are 2 standard deviations. The sign ``<'' indicates less than the minimum detectable
concentration, which is given at the 90% con®dence level. Sample J7 was taken in the ¯oodplain of the
Yenisey River above the junction. The locations of the other samples are given in Table 6.17.
samples contained 137 Cs concentrations signi®cantly higher than the average global
background. For samples taken near Bratsk, only background levels of 137 Cs activity
were detected.
137
Cs concentrations in samples taken on undeveloped reaches of the Angara
River upstream of the AYRS junction at Strelka were determined to have lower than
background levels, about 2 Bq kg 1 , of dry river sediment. Downstream of the
junction with the Yenisey, the 137 Cs concentration in samples ranged from 3 Bq kg 1
to 27 Bq kg 1 . The latter value is signi®cantly above activity levels detected on the
Angara River upstream of the junction.
In samples drawn from the Yenisey River at and upstream of the junction, levels
of the neutron activation product 60 Co (5.27-year half-life) and of the ®ssion products
137
Cs and 152 Eu (13.3-year half-life) were much higher than background: ranging
Table 6.18. Laboratory analysis of the concentrations of heavy metals in sediments and in
water measured in July 1996 during the American±Russian hydrophysical expedition (Krapivin
et al., 1998). Places of sampling are marked in the map in Figure 6.12. Measurement error did
not exceed one sigma.
Place of sampling As Cd Cr Cu Ni Pb Zn
Samples of river bottom sediments (ppm)
Grand River 7.2 <0.52 26 19 25 15 64
Upstream of the Irkursk dam 5.0 <0.51 41 22 44 11 55
Downstream of the Irkutsk dam 4.5 <0.51 20 11 21 9 17
Angarsk (technical canal) 0.9 <0.50 7.0 11 9.3 7.9 31
Upstream of Angarsk 4.3 <0.51 48 38 40 14 86
Kitoy River 2.4 <0.50 27 20 37 7.8 40
Upstream of the Bratsk dam <0.5 <0.50 6.4 9 12 2.3 22
Downstream of the Bratsk dam 3.4 <0.50 31 210 39 6.1 50
Angara (upstream of the 3.2 <0.50 14 13 18 4.5 31

con¯uence with the Yenisey)
Con¯uence of the Angara 5.1 <0.51 47 35 37 14 100

with the Yenisey
(the settlement Strelka)
Downstream of Lesosibirsk 6.9 <0.51 34 31 36 17 100
Kazachinskoye 5.8 <0.51 54 43 390 18 150
Upstream of Kazachinskoye 2.2 <0.50 18 8.2 20 3.9 47
Water samples (ppm)
Downstream of the Irkutsk dam 12 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7
Upstream of the Irkutsk dam 10 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7
Angarsk 12 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7
Upstream of the Bratsk dam 16 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7
Angara ( just before the 12 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7
con¯uence with the Yenisey)
Downstream of Lesosibirsk 13 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7
Kazachinskoye 8.6 <0.50 <10 <20 <20 <5.7 <5.7

Table 6.19. Comparison of results (ppm) of the laboratory analysis of materials from the 1996
expedition on Angara water quality (Analytical Services Center of Ecology and Environment,
Inc., New York).
Type of Data of the Irkutsk Ecological Service on Angara Results of water

data water quality control samples analysis
Year 1978 1979 1980 1996
Season T1 T2 T1 T2 T1 T2 August
The Ershov water collector (upstream of the Irkutsk dam) Map ID Map ID
#I15 #I11
Mg 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.5 4.9
Fe na na 0.01 nm na na <0.05 <0.05
As na na na na na na 0.0063 0.012
Zn na na na na na na 0.15 0.12
Cu 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.003 <0.02 <0.02
Mn 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.005 0.003 0.006 <0.01 <0.01
Al 0.005 0.005 0.018 0.008 0.004 0.007 <0.1 <0.1
Co nm na nm na na na <0.02 <0.02
Ni na na nm 0.003 0.001 0.002 <0.02 <0.02
V na na na na na na <0.02 <0.02
Pb na na na na na na <0.0057 <0.057
The water collector near the Sukhov station upstream of Angarsk Map ID #A14
Mg 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2

Fe 0.02 0.3 0.07 0.001 na na <0.05
As na na na na na na 0.012
Zn na na 0.0053 na na na 0.24
Cu 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.007 0.004 0.008 <0.02
Mn 0.011 nm 0.018 0.007 0.012 0.011 0.028
Al na 0.015 0.02 0.028 0.013 0.012 <0.01
Co nm na 0.004 0.002 na na <0.02
Ni nm 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.0005 <0.02
V na na na na 0.001 na <0.02
Pb na na na na na na <0.0057
Type of Data of the Irkutsk Ecological Service on Angara Results of water

data water quality control samples analysis
Year 1978 1979 1980 1996
Season T1 T2 T1 T2 T1 T2 August
The water collector 0.5 km downstream of the Bratsk dam Map ID #B2
Mn 4.4 3.8 4.4 3.9 4.8 5.2 4.9

Fe na na 0.02 0.13 na na <0.05
As na na na na na na 0.016
Zn na na na na na na 0.087
Cu na na na na na na <0.02
Mn na na 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.001 <0.01
Al nm 0.002 na 0.002 0.003 nm <0.1
Co na na na na na na <0.02
Ni nm na na na na na <0.02
V na na na 0.001 0.001 0.15 <0.02
Pb na na na na na na <0.0057
from 9 Bq kg 1 to 240 Bq kg 1 for 60 Co, from 14 Bq kg 1 to 400 Bq kg 1 for 137 Cs,

and from 7 Bq kg 1 to 150 Bq kg 1 for 152 Eu. These are unmistakable indications of
reactor products and are consistent with releases from the plutonium production
reactors at Krasnoyarsk-26, which is approximately 270 km upstream on the Yenisey
River. The large variations in measured activities were due to sampling location: the
higher values came from a dead-end backwater channel with thick sediment (J3) and
from a ¯oodplain area with thick mud deposits (J7) while the lower values came from
sandy sediment (J2) where the current was swift and deposits were more likely to be
washed away.
Above background levels of 235 U and 238 U were observed in several samples
taken just below the dam at Irkutsk. However, the measured concentrations of
238
U had large uncertainties due to the relatively weak gamma-ray emission from
this radionuclide. The ratios observed for 235 U/ 238 U were larger than the natural
abundance of 0.7% and were outside statistical uncertainties. However, these were no
more than counting errors and did not include uncertainties in the interference
between the overlying 186 keV gamma rays of 235 U and 226 Ra and possible errors
from self-attenuation due to non-uniformity in the samples. These samples were

taken in an area undergoing active land®ll. As a result, uranium-containing ®lls could
have been brought in from elsewhere.
6.5.2.2 Heavy metals in river sediments

Using the XRF unit as a screening instrument, a number of heavy metals were
identi®ed in all riverbank and river sediment samples collected during the expedition.
After the expedition, 21 river sediment and 8 river water samples were sent for trace
element analysis to an EPA-certi®ed commercial laboratory. Some of the analytical
results are shown in Tables 6.18 and 6.19. Five heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb)
were identi®ed in all the samples at concentrations which were within the usual ranges
of worldwide background levels. Two heavy metals, As and Zn, were identi®ed in the
river water samples at concentrations much higher than the median for natural
freshwater (Lal and Stewart, 1994). In fact, the Zn concentration in four of the
samples exceeded the normal range for natural freshwater. These water samples were
collected near to or downstream from industrial complexes on both the Angara and
Yenisey Rivers. Table 6.19 compares the 1995 U.S./Russian expedition results with
archived 1978±1980 water quality data taken from the Angara at Irkutsk, Angarsk,
and Bratsk, carried out by the Irkutsk Medical Inspection Service (private
communication with G.M. Svender and A.A. Krechetov, Chemical Department,
Irkutsk State University, Russia). The measurements indicate a signi®cantly higher
Zn concentration in water collected above Angarsk than was measured previously.
6.5.3 Experiments using the Angara±Yenisey river system simulation model

The AYRSSM database includes estimates of model coecients, initial information
for climatic and anthropogenic scenarios, and a set of identi®ers fAi g describing the
boundaries of area O, thus giving the structure of the land±water surface. The CON
block provides an interface with the database and allows the user to modify its
elements.
Let us assume that the vertical distribution of pollutants in river water is
homogeneous, the pollution in the soil and plants is negligible, and the cleaning
process of the atmosphere has an exponential character with half-life a (a 10
days when t 2 t1 ; t2 , a 20 days when t 2 t2 ; t4 ). Let us further assume that the
pollution sources located in O support a constant level of distribution of pollutants.
The distribution function is uniform in the intervals shown in Table 6.19. The values
of , , and were determined by average estimates for the last three years on the base
of published data (Rovinsky et al., 1995) and data of the Irkutsk Scienti®c Center.
The AYRS slope is taken equal to 0.21 m/km. Ecological elements of the AYRS are
considered as having unique levels, with biomass t a constant value at each of the
intervals ti ; ti1 (i 1; 2; 3). The equation for H5 is written in the form
H5 g1 m1 m2 Qk D, where g1 is the gravitation coecient (0.05 da 1 ), m1 is
the mortality coecient (0.01 da 1 ), and m2 is the pollutant capture coecient
(0.03 kg 1 ).
137
Table 6.20. Relative concentrations of Cs in water ( w ) and in bottom sediments ( d )
normalized for values at x 0.
Distance from Time from the beginning of the simulation experiment (days)
Lake Baikal
(km) 30 60 90 120
x w d w d w d w d
0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
250 8.2 20.4 6.7 18.7 7.4 17.8 8.3 17.1
500 9.5 14.4 9.4 12.3 9.3 15.3 8.4 14.9
1,000 10.3 4.1 8.8 9.8 7.8 11.6 7.9 10.3
1,500 9.7 3.0 10.2 5.2 6.3 8.5 4.8 7.6
2,000 8.9 2.9 6.9 2.9 4.9 4.1 4.5 2.8
2,500 6.5 2.3 5.9 2.2 3.1 2.4 3.1 1.8
3,000 3.2 1.9 2.7 1.7 2.9 1.9 3.0 1.4
3,500 2.5 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.8 1.2 2.4 1.1
4,000 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.1
Table 6.20 uses the AYRSSM to estimate 137 Cs distribution in O where cells Oi j
are situated along the AYRS at discretization steps of Dx 10 km. The 137 Cs
distribution along the river system has a single maximum which changes in value
and coordinate over time. A similar picture can be observed for other radionuclides in
Table 6.16. Such a result cannot only be explained by the location of sources of
radionuclear pollutants. It is possible that variations in the value and position of
maximal 137 Cs concentration are caused by high turbulence in the river system and by
the existence of reservoirs and eddies. The AYRSSM gives only averaged results.
Fourth-level blocks in the AYRSSM structure are necessary to describe hydrological
processes with Dx < 100 m.
Computer experiments show that the input of radionuclear pollution to the Kara
Sea from the Yenisey River is stable with a dispersion equal to 32%. The role of the
AYRS ecosystem in transforming radionuclear pollution is disregarded because it is
negligible (<3%). Vertical transport by organisms varies from 0.1% to 0.7%. Such
calculations can be carried out for dierent scenarios.
Figure 6.13 shows the distribution of heavy metal concentrations along the
AYRS constructed by means of a computer experiment. We see that there are three
maxima of heavy metal concentrations located at distances from Lake Baikal of
200 km, 1,200 km, and 2,000 km. This is the result of the distribution of pollution
sources along the river system. The AYRS neutralizes pollutants over a distance of
Figure 6.11. Maps of sample locations (marked by stars) during the American±Russian ecological
expedition of 1996. From Krapivin et al. (1998).
Figure 6.12. Annual ¯ow rate through the Irkutsk dam for the years 1991±1995.
600 km±1,000 km from the source. The locations of maxima vary as a function of
river ¯ow rate. For the ¯ow data of Figure 6.12 this variation is 150 km. The river
system transforms the pollutant ¯ow in such a way that input into the Kara Sea is
estimated at a pollution level which is less than 2% of the maximal concentration of
pollutant in the AYRS.
The AYRSSM allows us to estimate the dependence of pollution level in the
AYRS estuary as a function of anthropogenic activity. Suppose that the intensity of
sources of heavy metals is such that their concentration in the water near Angarsk,
Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk, Bratsk, and Ust-Ilimsk can be described by a stationary
function, supporting heavy metal concentrations at level h at each of these cities.
Computer experiments show that there is a stable correlation between h, the heavy
metal concentration in the AYRS estuary, and the water ¯ow rate . An increase in h
of 10% leads to a rise of pollution input to the Kara Sea by 2.5%. An increase in h of
1% leads to a rise of pollution input to the Kara Sea by 0.7%. These results are
correct only when variances in values and h are close to their average estimates.
Near their critical values the estimates are unstable and more detailed models are
required.
In conclusion it is necessary to note that this study demonstrates the possibility of
using modeling technology to solve complex environmental problems that demand
combined knowledge from dierent scienti®c ®elds. The AYRSSM is a good example
of such a combination. It provides the typical elements necesssary to synthesize a
simulation model to look into Arctic Basin pollution.
The results given in this section illustrate the functional features of a simulation
experiment. Clearly, the strategy of any modeling technology depends on a balance
between model calculations and on-site experiments. In the case considered, such a
strategy has an economical bene®t as it reconstructs the distribution of pollutants
along the AYRS and provides estimates of environmental consequences should the
chosen scenarios be realized.
The joint U.S./Russian expedition to Siberia's Angara and Yenisey Rivers

detected synthetic contaminants in water and sediment samples from industrial
regions and wilderness areas. On-site analysis using sensitive instrumentation
revealed radionuclides, heavy metals, and volatile organic compounds. The results
indicate that the nuclear production facility near Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisey River
has introduced radioactive contamination far downstream and is a probable source
of previously detected radioactivity in the Yenisey estuary at its outlet into the Kara
Sea.
The AYRSSM is a complex system which treats natural and anthropogenic
elements hierarchically. This study of the AYRS was the ®rst time that simulation
results were based on large-scale on-site measurements. The method proposed in this
chapter can be used to investigate other Siberian river systems. However, to expand
the experimental base, remote-sensing technology must be used (Sellers et al., 1995).
Remote monitoring can give more precise data on the structure of identi®ers A2 and
A3 , which describe the spatial distribution in the Arctic of pollutants and ice ®elds,
respectively. The authors hope for continuation of this study. Based on the database
created, it is planned to prepare a complete set of models and corresponding software
to describe the process of transfer and transformation of pollution substances in
Arctic natural ecosystems. This will demand the synthesis of models for the kinetics
of radionuclides and chemical compounds in the foodchains of the water and land
ecosystems for boreal zones, modeling the hydrological regime, and estimating
pollutant ¯ows in the Arctic Basin.
The ultimate aim of these investigations is the development of an environmental
technology as a result of co-operative scienti®c work directed toward evaluating the
state of the Arctic ecosystem. The modeling system should be provided with a
comprehensive database and have at its disposal a rami®ed informational measuring
network and a complete set of computer models for the main biogeochemical,
climatic, and biogeocenotic processes.
6.6 BIOCOMPLEXITY IN THE ARCTIC SYSTEM
Biocomplexity can be described as the result of dynamic interactions between the

physical, biological, and social components of the biosphere±society system (BSS).
Investigations of the processes involved in this interaction are, as a rule, targeted at
understanding and estimating the consequences of such interactions. The reliability
and precision of such estimates depend on criteria founded on conclusions, expertise,
and recommendations. At present, there is no uni®ed methodology for selecting a
criterion due to the absence of a common science-based approach to the ecological
standardization of anthropogenic impacts on the natural environment. Moreover,
the precision of ecological expertise for the functioning and planning of anthropo-
genic systems, as well as the representativeness of the global geoinformation
monitoring data, depend on these criteria.
Sec. 6.6] 6.6 Biocomplexity in the Arctic system 405
6.6.1 Biocomplexity indicator

Processes that have their origin in the environment can be presented as a combination
of interactions between its sub-systems. The human sub-system is a part of the
environment, and therefore it is illogical to divide the environment into separate
sub-systems such as biosphere and society. What is needed is a methodology to
describe existing correlations between nature and humanity that reliably re¯ects
dynamic tendencies in the BSS system. Unfortunately, the part of the BSS system
that is responsible for the quality of modeling climatic processes introduces instability
in the modeling results. This is the reason we suggest below that the BSS climatic
component be replaced by a scenario describing stable climatic trends during the time
of investigation. Then, what is actually studied is the biosphere±society system.
Let us introduce a scale X of biocomplexity ranging from the state when all
interactions between environmental sub-systems cease to the state when they corre-
spond to natural evolution. This gives us an integrated indicator of the environmental
state including bioavailability, biodiversity, and survivability. It re¯ects the level of all
types of interactions between environmental sub-systems. In reality, speci®c con-
ditions exist when these interactions change and transform. For example, under
the biological interaction of type ``consumer±producer'' or type ``competition for
energy resources'' there exists a minimal level of food concentration when contacts
between interacting components cease. In the common case, physical, chemical, and
other types of interactions in the environment depend on speci®c critical parameters.
Environmental dynamics is regulated by these parameters and the main task is to
parameterize them. Biocomplexity re¯ects this dynamics.
All of this corroborates the fact that biocomplexity is related to categories that
are dicult to measure empirically and express quantitatively. However, we will try
to transfer truly verbal tautological reasoning to formalized quantitative de®nitions.
For transition to gradations of scale X that has quantitative positions it is necessary
to postulate that relationships between two values of X are of type X1 < X2 , X1 > X2
or X1 X2 . In other words, there always exists a value of scale that de®nes a
biocomplexity level X ! f X, where f is a certain transformation of the
biocomplexity concept to a number. Let us attempt to search for a satisfactory model
to re¯ect the verbal biocomplexity image onto the ®eld of conceptions and signs,
subordinating it to formal description and transformation. With this purpose in mind
m sub-systems of the BSS are selected. The correlations between these sub-systems
are de®ned by the binary matrix function X kxi j k, where xi j 0 if subsystems Bi
and Bj do not interact and xi j 1 if they do. Then, any one point 2 X is de®ned as
Xm X m
the sum xi j . Certainly, there arises the need to overcome uncertainty, for
i1 j>i
which it is necessary to complicate scale X (e.g., to introduce weight coecients for all
BSS sub-systems). The origin of these coecients depends on the type of sub-system.
This is the reason three basic sub-system types are selected: living sub-systems,
non- living sub-systems, and vegetation. Living sub-systems are characterized by their
density, estimating by numbers of elements or by biomass value per unit area or
volume. Vegetation is characterized by the type and portion of occupied territory.

Non-living sub-systems are measured by their concentration per unit square or
volume of the environment. In the common case, certain characteristics fki g,
corresponding to the signi®cance of sub-systems fBi g, are assigned to every sub-
system Bi (i 1; . . . ; m). As a result we get nearer to de®nition of the formula to move
from the biocomplexity concept to the scale X of its indicator:
m X
X m
kj xi j :
i1 j>i
It is clear that '; ; t, where ' and are geographical latitude and
longitude, respectively, and t is the current time. For territory O the biocomplexity
indicator is de®ned as a mean value:

O t 1= '; ; t d' d;
';2O
where is the area of O.

Thus, indicator O t is the generalized characteristic of BSS complexity re¯ecting
the individuality of its structure and behavior at each time t in space O. According to
natural evolution laws a decrease (increase) in O will correspond to an increase
(decrease) of biocomplexity and the survivability of nature±anthropogenic systems.
Since a decrease in biocomplexity disturbs the exclusiveness of biogeochemical cycles
and leads to a decrease in stress on the non-renewal of resources, then the binary
structure of matrix X changes in direction to intensify resource impoverishment
technologies. The vector of energy exchange between BSS sub-systems is moved to
the position where the survivability level of the BSS is reduced.
The global simulation model is oriented to spatial discretization of the Earth's
surface with D' in latitude and D in longitude. In other words, the BSS space O is
divided into a set of cells
[
Oi j O Oi j ; Oi j f'; ; 'i ' < 'i1 ; j < j1 ;
i; j

i 1; . . . ; N; j 1; . . . ; M; N 180=D'; M 360=Dg :
Each cell Oi j has its own biocomplexity indicator value:

O i; j; t 1=i j '; ; t d' d: 6:30
';2Oi j
The value O i; j; t calculated by Formula (6.30) re¯ects the topological structure
of matrix Xi; j; t. Consequently, there exist n N M matrices and biocomplexity
indicators to characterize BSS biocomplexity. Within the computer experiment a set
of numerical characteristics of the BSS biocomplexity arises, distributed in space and
time. Integrated BSS biocomplexity indicators can be calculated for any arbitrary
area ! 2 O:
X
! t 1=! O i; j; t: 6:31
'i ;j 2!
This can be the average BSS biocomplexity by zone of longitude or latitude, by

ocean or sea aquatory, by country or state territory, etc.
6.6.2 The biosphere±society system biocomplexity model

The BSS consists of sub-systems Bi (i 1; . . . ; m) the interactions of which are
formed over time as functions of many factors. BSS biocomplexity re¯ects the
structural and dynamic complexity of its components. In other words, BSS
biocomplexiry is formed under the interaction of its sub-systems fBi g. In due course,
sub-systems Bi can change their state and, consequently, change the topology of
relations between them. The evolutionary mechanism that adapts sub-system Bi
to the environment supports the hypothesis that each sub-system Bi , independently
of its type, has structure Bi;S , behavior Bi;B , and goal Bi;G such that
Bi fBi;S ; Bi;B ; Bi;G g. The strivings of sub-system Bi to achieve certain preferable
conditions are represented by its goal Aî;G . The expedience of structure Bi;S and the
purposefulness of behavior Bi;B for sub-system Bi are estimated by the eectiveness
with which goal Bi;G is achieved.
As an example, we consider the process of ®sh migration. The investigations of
many authors revealed that this process is accompanied by the external appearance of
purposeful behavior. From these investigations it follows that ®sh migrations are
subordinated to the principle of complex maximization of eective nutritive rations,
given the preservation of favorable environmental conditions (temperature, salinity,
dissolved oxygen, pollution level, depth). In other words, the travel of migrating
species takes place at characteristic velocities in the direction of the maximum
gradient of eective food, subject to adherence to ecological restrictions. This is
the reason we can formulate goal Bi;G of the ®sh sub-system as directed toward
increasing their food rations, and behavior Bi;B consists in de®ning the trajectory
needed to secure its goal Bi;G .
Since interactions between sub-systems Bi (i 1; . . . ; m) are connected with
chemical and energy cycles, it is natural to suppose that each sub-system Bi can
bring about the geochemical and geophysical transformation of matter and energy
to remain in a stable state. The formalism of approach to this process consists in
supposing that interactions between BSS sub-systems are represented as a process in
which systems exchange a certain quantity V of resources spent for a certain quantity
W of resources consumed. This process is called ``(V; W)-exchange''.
The goal of the sub-system is to ®nd the most advantageous (V; W)-exchange
(i.e., it tries to get maximum W in exchange for minimum V). Quantity W is a
complex function of the structure and behavior of interacting sub-systems,
W WV; Bi ; fBk ; k 2 Kg, where K is the space of sub-system numbers interacting
with sub-system Bi .
Let us designate BK fBk ; k 2 Kg. Then, the following (V; W)-exchange is the
result of interactions between sub-system Bi and its environment BK :
Wi;0 max min Wi Vi ; Bi ; BK Wi Vi ; Bi;opt ; BK;opt ;
Bi BK
WK;0 max min Wi VK ; Bi ; BK WK VK ; Bi;opt ; BK;opt :

BK Bi
Hence, it follows that some range of the goal of sub-system Bi exists which de®nes the
levels of Vi and VK . Since limiting factors are in force in nature then in this case it is
natural to suppose that some level Vi;min exists when sub-system Bi ceases to spend its
energy resource to get the external resource (i.e., if Vi Vi;min , then sub-system Bi
transfers to regeneration of its internal resource). In other words, when Vi Vi;min a
decrease in biocomplexity indicator O t is realized at the expense of breaking o
interactions of sub-system Bi with other sub-systems. Commonly, the structure of
Vi;min is a checkered function (i.e., the change-over of xi j from state xi j 1 to state
xi j 0 is not realized for all j at the same time). Actually, in any trophic pyramid of
living sub-systems the relationships of producer±consumer type cease when consumer
biomass concentrations fall below some critical level. In other cases, interactions
between sub-systems fBi g can be stopped at the expense of various combinations
of its parameters. Parametric description of possible situations of interactions of
sub- systems fBi g can be realized in the BSS simulation model.
6.6.3 Biocomplexity problem related to ®sheries in the Okhotsk Sea

The Okhotsk Sea has high ecosystem productivity which functions under a rigorous
climate. The structure of the spatiotemporal ®elds of basic hydrological and eco-
logical characteristics of the Okhotsk Sea is heterogeneous. The chemical, physical,
and biological processes occurring in seawater have been studied by many authors to
assess its bioproductivity. According to Terziev et al. (1993), the following structural
discretization of the Okhotsk Sea can be realized. Five ecological layers exist. Layer 1,
of maximal photosynthesis, is situated above the thermocline and has a depth of
about 20 m±30 m. In fact, it corresponds to the wind-mixed layer. Layer 2 occupies
the water space from 30 m to 150 m in depth. It has low temperatures and oxygen
saturation of about 80%±90%. Layer 3, characterized by low oxygen saturation
(15%±20%), lies between the depth of 150 m to 750 m. Layer 4 extends from
750 m down to a depth of 1,500 m. This layer has minimal oxygen saturation
(10%±15%). Lastly, layer 5 is situated deeper than 1,500 m. It is characterized by
oxygen saturation of 25%±30%.
The Okhotsk Sea aquatory is divided into zones having speci®c ecological
features (Suzuki, 1992). The spatial distribution of the ®sh biomass depends on
seasonal conditions and to a great extent correlates with the layers outlined above.
The use of sea biological resources is a function of this distribution. Fishing intensity
essentially depends on knowledge of the biomass distribution in zones with speci®c
environmental conditions. Many authors (Plotnikov, 1996; Aota et al., 1992) have
tried to solve this task by means of models simulating ecosystem dynamics. However,
modeling results do not always turn out to be suciently representative or re¯ect the
classi®cation of sea zones by their productivity scale. The biocomplexity indicator is
one such simple form to identify these zones. In fact, many investigators have
indicated that Okhotsk Sea zones with high productivity are characterized by
complex multi-level trophic charts (Terziev et al., 1993). This eect is not seen in
other seas. For instance, the Peruvian current ecosystem has high productivity in
zones where the trophic chain is short (Krapivin, 1996). These situations are
distinguished by migration processes. This is the reason the biocomplexity of these
ecosystems forms in various ways.
Let us consider the following components of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem
mentioned in Table 6.21. The trophic pyramid X kxi j k, where xi j is a binary value
equal to 1 or 0 under the existence or absence of a nutritive correlation between the
ith and jth components, respectively. Let us de®ne the biocomplexity as a function:
20 X
X 19
'; ; z; t xi j Ci j ;
i1 j1
where ' and are geographical latitude and longitude; t is the current time; z is the
depth; and Ci j kji Bi; =Sj is the nutritive pressure of the jth component on the ith
component:
X
Si kim Bm;
m2Si
is the actual food available to the ith component; kim kim t; TW ; SW (i 1; . . . ; 17)
is the index of satisfaction of nutritive requirements of the ith component at the
expense of the mth component biomass; kim (i 18; 19) is the transformation
coecient from the mth coponent to the ith component; ki20 is the characteristic
anthropogenic in¯uence on the ith component; Si fi : xi j 1; j 1; . . . ; 19g is the
food spectrum of the ith component; TW is water temperature; SW is water salinity;
and Bm; maxf0; Bm Bm;min g.

1; if Bm Bm;min ;
xi; j
0; if Bm < Bm;min .
where Bm;min is the minimal biomass of the mth component consumed by other
trophic levels.
Let us designate the water area of the Okhotsk Sea by O f'; g. The value of
the biocomplexity indicator for any area ! 2 O is determined by ! z1 ; z2 ; t, where
z1 ; z2 is the water layer located between depths z1 and z2 . The maximal value of
max 20 is reached during the spring±summer period when nutritive relations
in the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem are extended, the intensity of energy exchanges is
increased, and horizontal and vertical migration processes are stimulated. In the
wintertime the value of is reduced to near min 8. The spatial distribution of
re¯ects the local variability in components of the food spectrum. Table 6.22 shows an
example of such a distribution. Comparison of this distribution with the distribution
Table 6.21. Trophic pyramid of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem considered in calculations of the biocomplexity indicator.
410
Consumers of energy and Sources of energy and matter

matter
B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12 B13 B14 B15 B16 B17 B18 B19
Phytoplankton, B1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Bacterioplankton, B2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Microzoa, B3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Microzoa, B4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Carnivores, B5 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Zoobenthic animals, B6 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Flat®sh, B7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
Codae, B8 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
Ammodytes hexapterus, B9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Mallotus, B10 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Theragra chalcogramma, B11 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Salmonidae, B12 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Coryphaenoides, B13 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
Interactivity between global ecodynamics and the Arctic Basin
B14 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
B15 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Crabs, B16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Laemonema longipes, B17 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Biogenic salts, B18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Detritus, B19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
People, B20 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
[Ch. 6
B14 Reinhardti ushippoglossoi des matsuura; B15 Clupeapallasi pallasi Val.

Sec. 6.7] 6.7 Carbon cycle dynamics in the Arctic system 411
Table 6.22. Estimates of the biocomplexity indicator for dierent layers in the spring±
summer season and in winter.
Season Layers
1 2 3 4 5
Spring±Summer 0.89 0.93 0.62 0.34 0.21
Winter 0.31 0.49 0.71 0.39 0.22
of zones with industrial ®sh accumulations (Terziev et al., 1993) shows that there is a
correlation between these distributions.
In the common case, indicator re¯ects the level of complexity of the Okhotsk
Sea ecosystem. A change in is realized as a consequence of migration processes and
of variability in nutritive interactions. Sub-system B20 plays the role in these processes
of an external source of change in other components. These changes are interpreted in
terms of ®shing and other impacts causing variations in component biomasses.
Calculations show that basic variability in =max is caused by migration
processes, under which quick redistribution of the interior structure of matrices X
and kCi j k occurs. For instance, according to Terziev et al. (1993) many ®sh species
during springtime migrate to the shelf zone, and during wintertime they move to the
central aquatories of the sea. Therefore, we get the value ! 1 during spring and
! 0.6 during winter for the shelf zone. This means that the biocomplexity of the
Okhotsk sea ecosystem in the shelf decreases by 40% in winter in comparison with
spring. For the central aquatories the value changes little during the year. Such
stability in the biocomplexity indicator is explained by the balance between nutritive
correlations and productivity during the spring, summer, and winter seasons.
It can be established that the variability in re¯ects the changes of ®sh con-
centrations which are controlled by environmental conditions. Speci®cally, during
the springtime Clupeapallasi escapes occupy the area with TW < 5 C. Other ®shes
have a preferred depth for their feeding and spawning (Terziev et al., 1993). All these
processes exert an in¯uence on the variability of . A more detailed investigation of
the correlations between the value of and the structural and behavioral dynamics
of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystem requires additional studies.
This section introduced a methodology to move from a verbal description of
biocomplexity to its numerical representation. In future studies it will be necessary to
take into consideration bottom relief, climate trends, ice ®eld dynamics, detailed
components of the trophic pyramid, bottom sediments, and the structure of currents.
Also, it will be necessary to add to Formula (6.31) elements describing anthropogenic
impacts on the ecosystem considered in a socio-economic sense.
6.7 CARBON CYCLE DYNAMICS IN THE ARCTIC SYSTEM
Studies of the climate-forming processes in the Arctic, characterized by isolation of

the ocean from the atmosphere by the ice cover, have long been of particular concern.
The most important impacts of sea ice on climate, as revealed through numerical
modeling, are the following:
(1) maximum climate warming (with increasing CO2 concentration in the winter)
due to increased heat input from the ocean through the thinner ice as a result of
warming;
(2) the eect of albedo on the atmospheric temperature of the more extended sea ice
18,000 years ago, which is compatible with the impact of continental glaciers; and
(3) possible reversal of the conventional relationship between the amplitude of the
annual change of temperature and the depth of the oceanic mixed layer when
sea ice dynamics are taken into account. A thinner mixed layer favors the
strengthening of wintertime sea ice, which causes a delay in springtime melting
and produces a colder summer. The latest data of numerical modeling have
con®rmed, on the whole, these conclusions (Kondratyev and Johannessen, 1993).
When discussing the role of the polar regions in the formation of global changes,
we need to keep in mind the two aspects of global ecology that are of paramount
importance:
(1) anthropogenically induced redistribution of the components of the heat balance

of the Earth as a planet (with emphasis on the atmospheric greenhouse eect and
its climatic impact); and
(2) anthropogenically induced breaking of global biogeochemical cycles (primarily,
this refers to carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur).
This is the reason polar regions are given special consideration as components of
the global ecosystem. These aspects are not taken into account completely by existing
global models of the nature±society system. A new approach to the synthesis of
geoinformation monitoring systems, proposed by Kondratyev et al. (2000) over-
comes this shortfall. In this approach the interchange of CO2 between high-latitude
vegetation, the northern seas, and the atmosphere is considered part of the global
biogeochemical cycle described by the Global Simulation Model (GSM) (Krapivin,
1993). The GSM comprises blocks that parameterize the following:
(1) the global hydrological balance;

(2) productivity of soil±plant formations, with 30 types de®ned;
(3) photosynthesis the ocean ecosystems taking into account depth and surface
inhomogeneity;
(4) demographic processes; and
(5) anthropogenic changes.
The GSM makes it possible to compute the dynamics of industrial CO2

distribution between the oceans, terrestrial biota, and the atmosphere. The GSM
describes the World Ocean as a spatial four-layer model with due regard for water
chemistry. Spatial heterogeneity of the World Ocean is represented by the structural
distribution of surface temperature applied to upwelling and convergence zones. Sea

ice in polar regions is considered using CIESIN data (Yohe et al., 2006). The
biogeochemical cycle of CO2 is described by balance equations in accordance with
Figures 3.3 and 3.4. The GSM carbon dioxide block takes into consideration the
dependence of ¯ows H2 and H3 from water surface processes (wind±wave mixing,
rough seas, foam as a result of wave action). Simulation experiments have shown that
these ¯ows vary from 16 mol m 2 yr 1 to 1,250 mol m 2 yr 1 . In the Arctic Ocean
during the June±September period the partial pressure pa of CO2 in the atmosphere
exceeds the partial pressure of CO2 in seawater by 20 ppm±110 ppm. These variations
in the partial pressure of CO2 have speci®c distributions for Arctic seas. For instance,
the Norwegian Sea and Bering Sea have CO2 de®cits of 18 ppm±54 ppm and 33 ppm±
69 ppm, respectively. The average CO2 de®cit reaches 450 gC m 2 . Flow H3 changes
between 1.5 gC m 2 da 1 and 4.1 gC m 2 da 1 . In addition, linear correlations
between the partial pressure of CO2 and water temperature T are observed, with a
proportionality coecient equal to 9.8 ppm/ C.
Flow H3 is calculated by the formula H3 Tp a 1=2 1 0:5S, where S (%)
is the water salinity, and the Weis function describes the in¯uence of water
temperature T ( K) on carbon dioxide solubility in seawater (Weis et al., 1982).
The greenhouse eect is discussed by many authors within the framework of
dierent anthropogenic scenarios (Kondratyev, 1998b; Gorshkov et al., 2000). The
main conclusion is that global climate change brought about through CO2 dynamics
will be insigni®cant during the next century as long as
(1) World Ocean pollution, especially by oil products, does not exceed the level of
1990 by any more than 10%;
(2) agricultural land areas do not expand at the expense of forests;
(3) the rate of fossil fuel consumption does not exceed the level of 1990 by any more
than 15%; and
(4) alternative energy sources (atomic, wind, etc.) are developed at a rate which does
not hinder food production.
The role of soil±plant formation for the absorption of excess atmospheric

carbon dioxide under the above scenario can be estimated by showing the data in
a geographic grid of 4 5 lat./long. (Table 6.23). The role of the World Ocean is
considered by taking water temperature in the surface layer into account. It has been
shown that atmospheric CO2 concentration could reach a mixing level of 556.7 ppm
during the 21st century. The dynamics of industrial CO2 distribution between the
atmosphere, oceans, and vegetation will ¯uctuate with an amplitude less than 25%.
As industrial CO2 emission between 1990 to 2090 increases, so the atmosphere's share
will rise and the contribution of the oceans to its absorption will increase; whereas
that of biota will stabilize after going through a small maximum. At the end of the
21st century and beginning of the 22nd century, when human economic activity has
likely reached heights never seen before, the contribution of the oceans (especially the
Arctic Basin) to industrial CO2 absorption will be considerably higher than that of
vegetation. This is due to the fact that, with an increase in CO2 concentration in the
Table 6.23. A model estimate of surplus CO2 absorption by vegetation in Russia. The
anthropogenic emission of carbon is assumed to be 6.5 GtC/yr.
Soil±plant formation Carbon ¯ow absorbed by

vegetation
(10 6 tC/yr)
Arctic deserts and tundra, sub-Arctic grassland and marshes 3.2
Tundra, mountain-tundra, and forest-tundra 10.7
North taiga forests 11.8
Mid-taiga forests 33.2
South taiga forests 24.9
atmosphere, the ability of the upper ocean layers to absorb industrial CO2 will be
supported by the transformation of biogeochemical processes in deep ocean layers.
The restoration of plant cover and elimination of ocean pollution are the main near-
time problems (Watson et al., 2000). For example, it was shown that if the natural/
disturbed land relation changes from 2/3 in 1990 to 3/2 in 2050, then atmospheric
CO2 concentration would reach no more than 497.3 ppm during the 21st century.
This illustrates that the role of the biospheric system in global change needs to be
investigated more thoroughly.
Simulation results show that there is an overall exaggeration of the importance of
global climate change caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Thus, the existing
arguments for climate change are not reliable. It is necessary to develop the GSM by
understanding and inserting currently missing correlations between the elements of
the NSS and by taking biotic regulation processes into account, which hitherto has
not been the case.
This study showed that the role of the Arctic Ocean in global CO2 balance has
been estimated imprecisely. Therefore, the Kyoto Protocol re¯ecting the problems of
climate warming via emission of greenhouse gases suers from a lack of objective
reasons. In fact, current climate models are still not reliably re¯ecting the correlation
of global temperature with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. These
models fail to consider the role of biospheric processes on land and in the oceans
(i.e., the biotic regulation of the environment and the functioning of the ocean
chemical system). Relevant models and datasets are synthesized in the framework
of the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment Program (MEAP) which was established
to help provide the knowledge base to improve decisions and to build a capacity for
analyzing and supplying existing information about the dynamics of the NSS (MEA,
2005). In this context, Secretary-General of the United Nations Ko® Annan said:
``The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is an unprecedented contribution to our
global mission for development, sustainability and peace.'' The MEAP might well
solve the problem of global model synthesis to obtain forecasts of the dynamics of the
NSS.
Figure 6.13. Distribution of heavy metal concentration in water (dashed line) and in sediments
(solid line) as a function of distance x from Lake Baikal. The signs `è'' and ``'' correspond to
the measured concentrations of metals in the water and sediment, respectively. The quantities
Yw ew x w x=ew 0 w 0 and Y e x x=e 0 0.
A summary of existing simulations of the global carbon dioxide cycle shows the
existence of long-term studies concerning this problem. The main conclusion is that
the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and biosphere has spotty spatial
characteristics. This spottiness, taken into account in the models of the carbon
dioxide cycle, produces large errors. Hence, the Kyoto Protocol's conclusions have
been based on incomplete estimates. There are many carbon ¯ows (natural and
anthropogenic), mentioned in Figure 3.3, that have yet to be satisfactorily described
parametrically. The principal key questions relating to the exchange of carbon
between the atmosphere and the terrestrial pool of above-ground biomass, below-
ground biomass, soils, and hydrospheric systems are discussed by Marchuk and
Kondratyev (1992), Watson et al. (2000), Kondratyev (1999b, 2000a), and Gorshkov
et al. (2000). The Arctic Basin is the most weakly studied part of the biosphere, but its
role in CO2 absorption processes is arguably the most important in the world. Figure
6.14 demonstrates high variability in the forecasting of carbon dioxide dynamics
under dierent anthropogenic scenarios.
(1) The pessimistic scenario of Keeling and Bacastow (1977) describes a situation
where the ocean's role in carbon exchange with the atmosphere is restricted to
physical processes, disregarding all the other processes.
(2) The optimistic scenario of Bjorkstrom (1979) takes into account the ocean±
carbonate system by parameterizing the H2 and H3 ¯ows in Figure 3.3.
(3) The scenario of the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Watson
et al., 2000), is based on speci®c activity requirements concerning land use
strategy (e.g., planting vs. regeneration through silvicultural activities).
(4) The realistic scenario of Kondratyev (1999a, b) foresaw the current tendencies in
the world's energy, demographic, and urbanization processes. This scenario is
realized by the GSM (Krapivin, 1993; Kondratyev and Krapivin, 2001a, b).
Figure 6.14. Forecasting the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere obtained under dierent
anthropogenic scenarios: 1 Keeling and Bacastow pessimistic scenario; 2 Bjorkstrom optimistic
scenario; 3 IPCC scenario ; 4 Kondratyev realistic scenario. The ordinate X Ca t=Ca (1900).
In scenario (3) a greenhouse eect via CO2 is clearly problematic. To estimate the
dynamics of atmospheric temperature dependence on carbon dioxide it is necessary
to use a correlation describing the greenhouse eect. There are various empirical
functional representations of warming eects (Krapivin, 1999a, b). The following
simple correlation approximates the existing empirical dependence of the atmo-
spheric temperature deviation DTCO2 on variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide
parameter X Ca t=Ca 1900:

0:911 1:509 ln X 1:25 expf 0:82X 1g; when X 1;
DTCO2
2:63X 2 6:27X 1:509 ln X 3:988; when X < 1.
Finally, according to GSM calculations, future emissions of CO2 will make the
Earth warm up by 0.2 C to 1.3 C by the year 2100. Such variations in DTCO2 depend
on assumptions about the intensity of urbanization and about land use strategy. The
calculation results show that the dynamics of industrial CO2 distribution between the
atmosphere and oceans changes with the increasing preponderance of ¯ows H3 in
northern water areas. At the end of the 21st century and beginning of the 22nd
century, at the height of human economic activity, the contribution of the oceans
to industrial CO2 absorption will be considerably lower than that of vegetation. This
is due to the fact that, with an increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, the
partial pressure in the oceans rises and its ability to absorb industrial CO2 decreases,
whereas the productivity of vegetation does not fall. By the end of the 22nd century,
with the projected decrease in human impact, the contribution of the oceans increases
due to the growing role of its deep layers. Atmospheric CO2 will decrease at the same
rate as that of the oceans increases.
The entire area of the Arctic Ocean is only 3.8% of the world's total ocean
surface, but its role in CO2 absorption varies from 23% to 38% (16.7 GtC yr 1 ±
28.9 GtC yr 1 ). This role is greatly in¯uenced by seasonal variations in the ice cover
and in ecosystem productivity. This is the reason the results of this study have a
preliminary character. It is necessary to ®ne-tune the parametrical descriptions of
¯ows H Ci from Figure 3.6. The authors of this book understand that policy-oriented
computer tools aimed at supporting decision-making processes related to global
change would need to be redesigned to support a new methodology in global
modeling based on simulation models with detailed spatial descriptions of biosphere
systems.
7
Nature±society system and climate,
its interactive component
7.1 EARTH'S HEAT BALANCE, AND PROBLEMS FACING SOCIETY
Most of the environmental processes acting near the Earth's surface derive their
energy from the Earth±atmosphere heat exchange. Much of this heat comes from
radiant energy initially provided by solar radiation absorption. The absorbed energy
is used to warm the atmosphere, to evaporate water, to warm the surface, along with
a host of other processes including biogeochemical cycles and the many events taking
place in human activity. The Earth's radiation balance (ERB) is the balance of
incoming and outgoing components of radiation. These components are balanced
over long time periods and over the Earth as a whole. Otherwise, the Earth would be
continually cooling or warming. However, over a short period of time, radiant energy
can be non-uniformly distributed over the Earth. It is due to this non-uniform
distribution of energy ¯uxes that problems with evaluating global climate dynamics
are encountered.
The discussions on global warming with predictions of global natural disasters
held during recent decades are of little use, as a rule, because the conclusions made
have been based on analysis of a limited observation series and application of
inadequate climate models. Nevertheless, an `òrthodox'' concept of a coming global
ecological catastrophe due to global warming is supported by many international
documents. Understanding the real dynamics of the atmosphere±hydrosphere±
lithosphere±cryosphere±biosphere (AHLCB) climate system is still far from being
adequate, even more so when external (cosmic) impacts on the climate system have
not been taken into account.
A full-scale complex study of the dynamics of the AHLCB system has not been
started as yet. On the whole, there are isolated studies with details of partial processes
taking place in this system. But, these studies by and large disregard glaciers and ice
sheets which cover about 10% of the Earth's land area. Glaciers are masses of ice that
accumulate from snowfall over long time periods and descend from higher to lower
420 Nature±society system and climate, its interactive component [Ch. 7
ground. Seasonal snow cover, the largest component of the cryosphere, covers up to
33% of the Earth's total land surface. Sea ice forms, grows, and melts in the ocean
depending on numerous parameters, most of them unknown. Satellite data indicate
that during the last 30 years the Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing at a rate of
about 3% per decade, while the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has been decreas-
ing by about the same amount during spring and summer. So, with this in mind, the
dramatic conclusions of global-warming supporters is a sort of ``global irony''.
One of the underlying reasons for these contradictory opinions about global
climate change is connected with the limited empirical diagnostics of climate mainly
through analyzing comparatively short (about a century and a half ) data series on
surface air temperature (SAT). In contrast, though, it is apparent that what is funda-
mentally important for understanding the laws of spatiotemporal variability of
climate are data on the climate system's energy: mainly, results of observations
and numerical modeling of the ERB. Despite such studies having a comparatively
long history, it is only during the last few decades that regular satellite observations of
ERB components have been made, resulting in accumulation of a comparatively
representative database of the global dynamics of the Earth's radiation ®eld and
its components: solar radiation absorbed by the Earth±atmosphere system and out-
going longwave radiation.
Only recently have attempts been made to calculate the global ®elds of the ERB
and its components from numerical climate modeling using 3-D global models of the
climate system's dynamics, rather than from the prescribed input characteristics of
the ®elds of temperature, cloudiness, and atmospheric composition. A good example
of successful modeling is the model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS) in the U.S.A. which can be used to calculate the Earth's radiation
®eld. The radiation balance has been calculated from changes in radiative forcing
between 1880 and 2003 by means of the following climate-forming factors (Schmidt et
al., 2006):
. greenhouse gases including CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, CFC, and some other minor gas
components;
. scattering (sulfate) and absorbing (black carbon) aerosols;
. extra-atmospheric solar radiation (solar constant);
. snow albedo;
. stratospheric aerosol;
. indirect climatic impact of tropospheric aerosol (through changes of processes in
clouds); and
. processes on land surface (land use).
The data in Table 7.1 illustrate the outcome. The results of evaluating mean
global ERB con®rm just how confusing they are for conclusions about the spatio-
temporal variability of ERB components. Note that in 2003 the radiative forcing due
to indirect impacts of aerosol was estimated at 1.39 W m 2 , and the error reached
50%. According to Table 7.1, the total eective radiative forcing constitutes
1.8 W m 2 , with the main contribution to both greenhouse gases and to uncertainty
Sec. 7.1] 7.1 Earth's heat balance, and problems facing society 421
Table 7.1. Ecient RF for the period 1880±2003 which takes GHGs, atmospheric aerosols, and
other factors into account.
Forcing factor Radiative forcing

(W m 2 )
Greenhouse gases
Well mixed 2.75
Ozone 0.24
Stratospheric H2 O (due to CH4 ) 0.06
Total 3.05 0.4
Extra-atmospheric solar radiation 0.22( 2)
Land use 0.09( 2)
Snow albedo 0.74( 2)
Aerosols
Volcanic 0.00
Black 0.43
Scattering tropospheric 1.05
Indirect impacts of aerosols 0.77
Total 1.39 0.7
Arithmetic sum of individual radiative forcings 1.93
Interactive consideration of all radiative forcings 1.80 0.85
0.85 W m 2 resting with aerosols. Thus, aerosols are mainly responsible for uncer-
tain estimates of global climate change, though there is no doubt that they are only
part of the problem. More complicated problems appear in attempts to assess the
leading role of non-linear processes in forming the Earth's climate (Kondratyev et al.,
2006a, b).
The main result of numerical modeling obtained at GISS consists in estimates of
the mean global ERB imbalance (positive imbalance), which before 1960 constituted
only several tenths of W m 2 , but then (with the exception of short periods of
explosive volcanic eruptions) it constantly increased reaching its present level of
0.85 0.15 W m 2 . This level re¯ects today's global climate warming. The observed
accumulation of heat by the World Ocean, the main reservoir of excess energy,
con®rms the reality of this `ìmbalance''. According to calculated data, an increase
in the heat content in the upper 700 m layer of the ocean during the last decade
constituted 6.0 0.6 W m 2 . The observed value of this warming of the ocean is
5.5 W m 2 . The calculated meridional section of SST for dierent versions of numer-
ical modeling revealed considerable dierences between model results and observa-
tions. This re¯ects the chaotic character of ocean weather. Nevertheless, the basic
features of the mean zonal ®eld of SST trends, on the whole, correspond to those
observed, revealing a deeper penetration of heat anomalies to oceanic depths in

middle and high latitudes than in the tropics.
It should be emphasized that detection of the mean global energy imbalance is
important conceptually, since this imbalance serves as an indicator of any breakdown
in global ecological equilibrium. It is apparent that in the absence of anthropogenic
impacts, the received (absorbed solar radiation) and spent (longwave outgoing radi-
ation) energy should balance. Breaking the energy (heat) balance of the planet re¯ects
the beginning of the dangerous process of ecological equilibrium breakdown on a
global scale. Another indicator of this loss is the breaking of the closedness of global
The increase in mean global SAT observed between 1880 and 2003 constituted
0.6 C±0.7 C, which corresponds to a level of forcing of 1.0 W m 2 . The presence of
excess heat means the existence of a heat reservoir (0.85 W m 2 ), which due to the
strong inertia of the climate system should determine further global warming even
keeping the greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere constant. Historical analogies
show that such a level of forcing could not exist for long periods. In fact, if the
imbalance value had remained throughout the Holocene (10,000 years) at a level of
1.0 W m 2 , it would have been enough for a 1 km ice layer to melt or for the SST in
the layer above the thermocline to reach 100 C. Therefore, it is quite natural that on a
geological timescale the imbalance could not exceed 1.0 W m 2 .
In estimating the reliability of calculated mean global ERB components, the role
played by albedo is arguably the most complicated. Analysis of the data on the
annual change in albedo obtained using climate models revealed the presence of
considerable (beyond the range in variability of greenhouse radiative forcing) dier-
ences, both between various models and with observations results. Calculated albedo
values and their empirical estimates have dierent annual variability. These dier-
ences testify to the unreliability of numerical modeling results determined by inade-
quate consideration of the impact of clouds and aerosols on albedo formation. With
the present level of errors in satellite observations of albedo, reliably recognizing
albedo changes is impossible in the context of an anthropogenically enhanced atmo-
spheric greenhouse eect. The present situation is illustrated by the data in Table 7.2.
It can be seen that the dierences are dramatic (they even dier in sign). Hence, the
notion of global warming that creates the illusion of global-scale uniform climate
warming is incorrect. This means that further development of systems of ground and
satellite observations aimed at accumulating a long series of reliable observation data
is paramount in the present climatology. The complexity and importance of this
problem follows from comparison of available satellite data according to which
the mean global albedo of the Earth is 0.29, and the extra-atmospheric total ¯ux
of solar radiation constitutes 341 W m 2 . This means that a change in Earth albedo
by as little as 0.01 is equivalent to a change in radiation balance of 3.4 W m 2 ,
equivalent to CO2 doubling in the atmosphere.
The contradiction between observed and modeled data on the radiation balance/
albedo relationship has been con®rmed by numerous publications on this subject
(Heinrich and Hinzpeter, 1975). Some data reveal a decrease in outgoing longwave
radiation by about 2.0 W m 2 over the period March 2000±February 2004, which is
Table 7.2. Observed values of global mean RF and equivalent changes in the Earth's albedo
(10 3 ).
Forcings Albedo
Enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse eect during the industrial era 76
(2.4 0.2 W m 2 )
Anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing during the industrial era 4 4
Estimates of albedo changes from data on the outgoing shortwave radiation 16
re¯ected by the Moon (2000±2004)
Changes in albedo from data of satellite observations (2000±2004) 6
Changes in net radiation

From satellite data for the period 1983±2001 8
From data of ground observations for the period 1985±2000 13
From data of ground observations for the period 1950±1990 20
equivalent to a decrease in Earth's albedo by 0.006. At the same time, there are
estimates that testify to the considerable increase in outgoing shortwave radiation by
6 W m 2 and, respectively, an increase in albedo by 0.17.
The equation for shortwave radiation balance Qs is as follows:
Qs G RDH R G1 a;
where G is global radiation; D is direct radiation; H is diuse radiation; R is re¯ected
portion of global radiation (4%); and a is albedo.
The equation for longwave radiation balance is:
Ql AE AO AG;
where AE is eective radiation; AO is radiation from the Earth's surface; and AG is
trapped radiation (radiative forcing, or greenhouse eect).
The total radiation balance is described by the following equation:
Qt Qs Ql G R AE:
These equations of the Earth's energy balance show that albedo is the main
parameter regulating it. The climatic eect of albedo changes can be shown in
dierent ways. Keeping variations in the properties of the land surface, aerosol,
and snow and ice covers in mind, then with a decrease of albedo the Earth should
warm, and with an increase of albedo it should cool. Put another way there should be
a substantial decrease in mean global annual heat in the ocean. Analysis of observa-
tional data for the period 1992±2002 shows an increase of heat supplies in the World
Ocean by 0.7 0.4 W m 2 . If we only take albedo change into account, the decrease
in outgoing longwave radiation should correspond to this value. On the whole,
satellite observations have not detected any important role of cloud feedback in
the albedo increase, which testi®es to the necessity of continuing cloud observations
from space.
Processing observational data on total radiation for the period 1960±1990 shows
the negative trend of total radiation on the land surface varying within 6 W m 2 ±
9 W m 2 . This is equivalent to a decrease in total radiation of 4%±6% over 30 years.
This eect has been called the Earth's `èclipse'' by some authors. But from 1990 a
general ``brightening'' of the Earth was observed, connected with decreasing aerosol
pollution of the atmosphere due to reduced industrial ejections over the former
U.S.S.R. This conclusion was con®rmed by a number of actinometric observations
at ToÄravere (Tartumaa, Estonia). For example, Tooming (2002) obtained data at
the Tartu±ToÄravere Actinometric Station data from 1955 to 2000 that showed a
decrease in global radiation by as much as 20% during the last 46 years can be
explained primarily by the relatively high negative trend in snow cover duration and
surface albedo. Data given by Baltensperger et al. (2005) for larger territories show
that the spatiotemporal dynamics of optical aerosol depth is substantially inhomo-
geneous.
Within the framework of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
(ISCCP) numerical modeling of radiation balances was undertaken both for the land
surface and the Earth as a whole, at a spatial resolution of 280 km and a time step of
3 hours over a 21-year period (1983±2004). Comparing the results with observational
data showed that the improved method of calculation and speci®ed input information
allow errors in evaluating the radiation balances for the land surface to be reduced
from 20±25 W m 2 to 10 W m 2 ±15 W m 2 , and on a global scale from 10 W m 2 ±
15 W m 2 to 5 W m 2 ±10 W m 2 . Moreover, an increasing trend of total radiation by
0.1% per year was observed (Zhang et al., 2004). By improving climate models and,
what is more, specifying the spatiotemporal distributions of the parameters of these
models we can improve estimates of the ERB and assess the role of various factors in
its dynamics.
Analysis of mean annual estimates of the radiation balance shows that the impact
of clouds consists in shifting longwave radiative cooling toward the intra-tropical
convergence zone, helping to stabilize the tropical atmosphere and enhance the
forcing on atmospheric circulation by increasing the horizontal gradient at which
it is heated. There is also a shifting of longwave cooling to higher altitudes in the
storm zone at mid-latitudes which destabilizes barocline zones but reduces the
horizontal gradient of heating in these zones.
In December 1999, NASA launched the Terra satellite which carried ®ve scien-
ti®c instruments for remote sensing of the climate system: ASTER, CERES, MISR,
MODIS, and MOPITT. The multi-beam Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer
(MISR) provides measurements of outgoing shortwave radiation at wavelengths
of 446 nm, 558 nm, 672 nm, and 866 nm with a spatial resolution of 275 m±1,100m
in nine viewing directions within 70 with respect to the satellite trajectory. Such
multi-beam observations of outgoing short-wave radiation can be used to retrieve
details about atmospheric aerosols, the surface, and cloud cover, important additions
to results of satellite observations in ®xed directions. The radiation balance calculated
using MISR data and satellite observations of Oklahoma (U.S.A.) made on March 3,
2000, resulted in reducing error down to 4% by moving from a 2-D to a 3-D climate
model (Marchand and Ackerman, 2004).
A new stage in the development of ERB satellite observations is the use of
instruments to measure ERB components carried by the second generation of
Meteosat satellites. Routine observations from these satellites made since December
2002 have produced data on total outgoing radiation at wavelengths 0.32 mm±
100.0 mm and outgoing shortwave radiation at wavelengths 0.32 mm±4.0 mm every
15 minutes, with a spatial resolution of about 40 m and an error of no more than
10%. The scanning multi-channel radiometer Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra
Red Imager (SEVERI) carried by Meteosat-8 provides information about cloud-
induced radiative forcing at a high spatiotemporal resolution, which opens up
prospects for a more reliable analysis of factors aecting ERB formation (Harries
et al., 2005).
Thus, studies and estimates of the ecological equilibrium on a global scale are
closely connected with the state of studies of ERB components and with dependences
on all the parameters involved in the natural±anthropogenic environment. A still
serious diculty remains about the inadequacy of available methods and algorithms
for processing and interpreting data on NSS dynamics observations. The reliability of
observational data on the state of the ERB depends both on the equipment of
environmental monitoring systems and how the data are processed. Technical means
should resolve the problem of obtaining information about the climate system's
components at the necessary spatiotemporal resolution, and processing methods need
to be found to minimize errors in estimates of the radiation balance.
To assess the ERB, it is necessary to develop a co-ordinated network of global
ground and satellite observations equipped with technical and algorithmic means to
provide data of a single standard for use in studies. Unfortunately, there is no such
network at present, and the data obtained are processed fragmentarily and in small
volumes. Nevertheless, progress is expected in the near future due to the pressing
necessity to resolve global energy problems. However, understanding the way in
which climate change is determined by the complicated relationship between inter-
active components of the AHLCB climate system and obtaining reliable estimates of
the parameters of this interaction remain as obstacles, mainly due to random systems
of nature monitoring and the absence of an ecient international mechanism to
oversee observational and numerical modeling data. Nevertheless, a retreat from
unfounded `àpocalyptic'' estimates of climate and political statements has recently
been observed, which instills hope for constructive resolutions of climate problems at
the international level (IPCC, 2007).
The paradox in contradictory estimates of climate change is that in the course of
climate discussions some fundamental and clearly apparent facts have been strangely
disregarded, despite being studied in detail in many publications by Russian
climatologists (Kondratyev and Krapivin, 2003a, b, 2006a±c). Unfortunately, it is
a fact that many international organizations dealing with the planning and realiza-
tion of programs of climate studies ignore these publications, even after they have
been translated in English (Kondratyev 1999a; Kondratyev and Cracknell, 1998;
Kondratyev et al., 2003b). Russian scientists have come up with constructive ideas
on how best to overcome many of the diculties facing climate studies, as mentioned
in their reports at the World Climate Conference held in Moscow in 2003.
7.2 NATURAL ECODYNAMICS ASSESSED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA
7.2.1 Reality, suggestions, and ®ctions

7.2.1.1 Uncertainty and interactivity of climatic processes
The unprecedented increase of interest in climate observed in recent decades has been
responsible for both scienti®c and applied developments in climatology, resulting in
considerable advances in understanding the causes of present climate change, paleo-
climatic laws, and in substantiating scenarios of possible climate change in future. It
is scenariosÐnot predictionsÐwhose possibilities should be assessed as doubtful.
Unfortunately, the many exaggerations and apocalyptic forecasts have played too
serious a role in the growing attention to climate problems. For instance, complete
melting of Arctic sea ice in the ®rst half of this century is predicted, due to which
climate change, formulated as a concept of anthropogenic global warming, has
become the focus in geopolicy (Boehmer-Christiansen, 2000; Kondratyev, 1998b).
It is paradoxical that the presidents and prime ministers of various countries discuss
whether the Kyoto Protocol should be considered as a scienti®cally grounded
document, as took place, for instance, in the U.S.A. Confusion can be blamed, in
particular, on the lack of suciently clear and agreed terminology. Putting aside for a
moment de®nition of the notion of climate, one should remember, for instance, that
so far the notion of ``climate change'' has been de®ned as anthropogenically induced
climate change, though one of the main unsolved problems consists in the absence of
convincing quantitative estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic factors to the
formation of global climate (there is no doubt however that anthropogenic impacts
on climate do exist). International documents outlining present ideas about climate
use the prevalent notion of consensus with respect to scienti®c conclusions, as if the
development of science was determined not by a dierence of views and respective
discussionsÐbut by a general agreement on some concrete problems. Apart from
de®nitions, there exists the problem of conceptual uncertainty in dierent areas of
climate science.
At the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in September 2002, in
Johannesburg (South Africa) a further unclear notion, ``sustainable development'',
appeared, which has still not been de®ned exactly. Discussions of climate change and
sustainable development were continued at numerous sessions of the U.N. Commis-
sion on Sustainable Development where climate problems were the focus. At the G-8
meeting in Genoa (July, 2001) President Vladimir Putin proposed organizing in
Moscow the World Climate Change Conference, which was held on September
29±October 3, 2003. It is appropriate here to recall the undoubted progress of the
U.N. Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de
Janeiro, June 3±14, 1992 and the UN General Assembly meeting in special session
held 5 years later (New York, June 23±27, 1997), which consisted only in attracting
Sec. 7.2] 7.2 Natural ecodynamics assessed by observational data 427
the attention of governments and the world community to problems of global change
and sustainable development. Unfortunately, both these forums were not adequately
prepared. The most important negative result was the failed attempt to implement the
`Èarth Charter'' intended to formulate and substantiate priorities. Instead, a most
amorphous and declarative document, the ``Rio Declaration'', was approved
(Kondratyev, 1999b).
The Rio Declaration is a set of 27 principles covering environmental protection
and responsible development. These principles (not legally binding) de®ne the
development rights of people and their responsibilities to protect the common
environment. The Declaration recognizes that the only way to achieve long-term
social and economic success is to link it with environmental protection and to
establish equitable global partnerships between governments and key ®gures from
society and business.
Nowadays, the following three global ecological problems are the focus:
. climate change (``global warming'');

. the fate of the ozone layer in the stratosphere; and
. closedness of global biochemical cycles (the concept of biotic regulation of the
environment).
The sad paradox is that, despite the primary importance of the latter problem
convincingly substantiated in the scienti®c literature and the secondary role of the
two former ones, UNCED documents have missed the primary importance of the
following sequence of events: socio-economic development (stimulated by growing
population size) ! anthropogenic impact on the biosphere ! consequences of these
impacts for the environment (climate, ozone, etc.).
This lack of understanding resulted in unfoundedly bringing the problem of
global warming to the forefront by adopting a document which is lame, confusing,
and unjust to the developing world: the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). This focuses, regardless of scienti®c substantiations, on the
anthropogenic origin of global climate warming and recommendations for developed
countries to reduce greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere (mainly carbon
dioxide emissions).
In December 1997 the third Conference of the Parties (COP) (over 160 countries)
was held in Tokyo (Japan). It concentrated on long and hot discussions on the
necessity to recommend a 5% CO2 emission reduction by 2008±2012 (with respect
to emissions at the level of 1990), despite the absurdity of such a discussion and the
lack at the time of any visible success in reducing CO2 emissions (global emissions
continue and will grow not only in developing but also in many developed countries,
including the U.S.A). Naturally, the top priority of developing countries is to increase
living standardsÐnot to curtail industry for the sake of CO2 emission reduction. But,
this is the condition to be paid for UNCED rati®cation by the U.S.A. and other
countries of the ``golden billion''. The history of the UNFCCC is marked by illustra-
tions of massive (mainly bureaucratic) activity that annually eats up hundreds of
millions of dollars (instead of investing them in science). The U.N. Development
Program/Global Ecological Fund (UNDP/GEF) report, as of July 30, 1998, showed

that the ®nancing of 267 projects by the GEF cost $1.9 billion (GEF, 1998). What was
the cost of getting 10,000 people to participate in the Conference in Kyoto? The
recent Sixth Session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-6, November
13±24, 2000, The Netherlands) as well as the International Conference on Freshwater
(December 3±7, 2001, Bonn) were also well populated, with representatives from 178
countries (and then they were mainly ocialsÐnot specialists).
Maybe this situation is the consequence of scienti®c bases of global change
problems having been inadequately elaborated. Although this conclusion is partly
valid, as far back as 1990 there were publications (Gorshkov, 1990; Kondratyev,
1990) devoted to key aspects of global ecology. Gorshkov (1990) and Gorshkov et al.
(2000) proposed and substantiated the fundamental concept of biotic regulation of
the environment, and Kondratyev (2002) demonstrated the groundlessness of the
``greenhouse'' hypothesis of global warming and emphasized the need to study the
atmosphere±ocean±land±ice cover±biosphere climate system by taking into account
the complexity of feedbacks between its interactive components. The problem of a
global observing system was thoroughly analyzed, especially developments in the
®eld of remote sensing and the use of respective observational data (Grigoryev and
Kondratyev, 2001c; Kondratyev, 1990, 1992, 1998a, 1999b). Yet another work was
the special problem of atmospheric ozone variability (Kondratyev and Varotsos,
2000).
Let us now make a few brief comments on global climate change that vividly
re¯ect existing delusions. The most important are as follows:
. Observational data (still inadequate regarding comprehensiveness and reliability)

do not con®rm the anthropogenic origin of global warming (which is especially
true for the data of ground observations in the U.S.A., in the Arctic, and for
satellite microwave remote-sensing results).
. If the enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse eect due to supposed
doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is about 4 W m 2 , then the
uncertainties about the climate-forming role of atmospheric aerosols and clouds
in numerical climate modeling reach tens or even hundreds of W m 2 .
. The numerical climate modeling results used to substantiate the ``greenhouse
global warming'' hypothesis do not actually agree with observations and, what is
worse, have been adjusted to agree with observational data.
. Recommendations concerning the levels of GHG emission reduction based on
these results make no sense whatsoever, and their realization may have far-
reaching negative socio-economic consequences. Numerical modeling data show
that even if KP recommendations are fully achieved the decrease in mean global
annual SAT will not exceed a few hundredths of a degree (Wigley, 1999; Wigley
and Raper, 2001).
Recently, eorts have concentrated on analyzing numerical climate modeling

uncertainties (inadequacy). Perhaps, the most serious source of uncertainties is
inadequate consideration of interactive processes in the aerosol±clouds±radiation
system (Charlson et al., 2001; Kondratyev and Galindo, 1997; Kondratyev, 1998b,
1999a; Kondratyev and Cracknell, 1998). There is no doubt that the most compli-
cated aspect of numerical climate modeling is understanding the interactive dynamics
of the biosphere, which can be illustrated by two concrete examples, which, of course,
only to some degree re¯ect the complexity of the problem.
To explain the decrease in the diurnal trend of SAT (DTR) by 3 K±5 K detected
from observational data between 1951 and 1993 resulting from a rapid increase of
minimum temperature, we consider the impact of various factors: changes in cloud
amount, water vapor content, and tropospheric aerosol, in addition to turbidity and
soil humidity. Positive trends in the ®rst three factors could lead to a decrease of total
radiation in daylight and to an increase in atmospheric counter-emission at night,
whereas variations in heat and moisture exchange between the surface and the atmo-
sphere, which should be much more substantial in daylight than at night, could result
from the changing intensity of turbulent mixing and soil moisture.
The strongly manifested interactivity of climate-forming processes and the inade-
quacy of their parameterization in climate models seriously complicate the evaluation
of contributions of various mechanisms of DTR decrease. In this connection Collatz
et al. (2000) using the SiB2 approximated model of land biosphere, numerically
modeled the response of the diurnal change in temperature of a vegetation-covered
land surface to changes in external forcing and the biophysical state of the vegetation
cover. Various scenarios were considered to discover the possible impact of inter-
active dynamics of the vegetation cover on DTR. Analysis of the numerical modeling
results showed that an increase in longwave de®cit (LWD) determines the increase in
air temperature over the vegetation cover Tm at night, promoting a decrease in DTR.
But under conditions of global warming, changes in Tm or an increase of Tm LWD
favor an increase in both minimum and maximum temperature, which determines the
negligible impact of these factors on DTR. This reaction is the consequence of diurnal
change in aerodynamic stability and radiation balance.
Many numerical experiments on climate modeling are based on the use of
atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) together with land surface models
(LSMs). The results of such numerical experiments depend to a great degree on
speci®c features of the interaction between the GCM and LSM designed to retrieve
the surface±atmosphere exchange between radiation, momentum, and energy. The
desire to take into account the variety of land ecosystems has led to LSMs becoming
much more complex due to including sub-models that take into account photosynth-
esis, vegetation cover dynamics, and biogeochemical cycles, which radically increases
model reality.
Based on using the simple SiB model of the biosphere as an LSM version, Kim et
al. (2001) undertook various numerical experiments whose results showed the impor-
tance not only of the sensitivity of SiB to a change in many morphological parameters
of vegetation cover, but also the sensitivity of transpiration of high vegetation cover
to parameters that characterize vegetation cover resistance. The improved SiB2
model enabled consideration of the biogeochemical processes that determine the
surface±atmosphere exchange between water vapor, energy, and carbon dioxide.
Using the Sib2 and Sib2-Paddy models, and the meso-meteorological model
GAME-Tropics the results from numerically modeling processes taking place on a

test rice ®eld in Thailand (17 03 0 N, 99 42 0 E) were compared with data from the
monsoon experiment in Asia (GAME), part of the global ®eld experiment GEWEX
(September 1±6, 1999) which studies energy and water cycles during the rainy season.
Good agreement was observed between the results of the two models and observa-
tional data on the diurnal change in radiation balance and latent heat ¯ux, except for
estimates calculated using the SiB2 model. There was also good agreement between
observed and modeled ¯uxes of latent heat and heat in soil, as well as the rate of
carbon assimilation by the SiB2-Paddy model, but once again the SiB2 model gave
substantial systematic errors. By adjusting parameters the SiB2-Paddy model makes
it possible to obtain reliable estimates of the temperature of soil, water, and vegeta-
tion cover. Calculations of the radiation balance, balances between energy and water,
as well as latent heat and rate of CO2 assimilation were adequate. Such results mean
there is a good chance for adequate consideration of the biosphere (as an interactive
component of the climate system).
De Rosnay et al. (2000) assessed the reliability of schemes that parameterize land
surface processes to ®nd the correspondence between calculated mean annual ¯uxes
of energy and moisture depending on detailed consideration of the vertical structure
of soil. These schemes are used in general circulation models of the atmosphere
(GCMAs). The calculations testify to the strong dependence of ¯uxes on vertical
resolution. The 11-layer scheme parameterizing heat and moisture transfer in the top
1 mm thick layer of soil was found to be adequate.
An important part of numerical climate modeling is unraveling a complicated set
of problems concerning atmospheric chemistry. It is well known, for instance, that
formation of the concentration ®eld of a greenhouse gas such as tropospheric ozone
(TO) under various conditions (city, regional, and global distributions) is greatly
aected by various short-lived minor gas constituent (MGC) ozone precursors,
including nitrogen oxides (NOx NO NO2 ), methane (CH4 ), many organic com-
pounds, hydrogen, and carbon oxide (CO). Each of these MGCs is characterized by
speci®c natural (biospheric) and anthropogenic sources.
Since TO is a greenhouse gas, emissions of it can indirectly aect the formation of
atmospheric greenhouse eect by in¯uencing the TO concentration ®eld. Moreover,
MGC/TO precursors change the hydroxyl concentration ®eld and, hence, the oxida-
tion power of the troposphere. In its turn, the distribution of hydroxyl concentration
in the troposphere controls the lifetime and, thus, the level of concentration of
methane at the global scale.
Such a complicated interactivity of processes can both directly and indirectly
aect formation of the atmospheric greenhouse eect. Derwent et al. (2001) described
a global 3-D Lagrangian chemistry transport model (STOCHEM) which reproduces
chemical processes including MGC transport and can be used to reproduce inter-
related ®elds of TO and methane concentration (Johnson et al., 2002) under
conditions of emission to the atmosphere of short-lived TO precursors such as
CH4 , CO, NOx , and hydrogen. At the same time, the radiative forcing (RF) of
NOx emissions depends on the location of emissions: near the surface or in the upper
troposphere, in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. For each short-lived MGC/
TO precursor, estimates of global warming potential (GWP) can be obtained from

integration data of the response of methane and TO to RF over a 100-year period.
For example, the combined impact of methane and TO gives a GWP of 23.3.
Calculation results show that the indirect RF caused by changes in methane and
TO content is considerable for all MGC/TO precursors. Whereas RF due to changes
in the content of methane is determined mainly by the eect of methane emissions, in
the case of TO it is controlled by all MGC precursors, especially by nitrogen oxides.
The indirect RF connected with TO can be so great that MGC/TO precursors should
be considered like those of MGCs, which should be taken into account when
evaluating possible climate change and measures needed for its prevention.
Despite the `ànti-Kyoto'' statements of President George W. Bush, the headlines
of many American newspapers in January 2001 were quite dramatic. The Washington
Post and The International Herald Tribune reported that scientists had published
dreadful predictions of warming and forthcoming climate change foretelling a global
disaster in this century. The Earth's warming was considered as a new danger sign for
the world population. Discussions of the danger of global warming still continue.
For instance, CBS News on January 20, 2005 broadcast:
`Àn ancient version of global warming may have been to blame for the greatest
mass extinction in Earth's history. In an event known as the `Great Dying', some
250 million years ago, 90 percent of all marine life and nearly three-quarters of
land-based plants and animals went extinct. Scientists have long debated the
cause of this calamityÐwhich occurred before the era of dinosaursÐwith
possibilities including such disasters as meteor impacts.''
There are various explanations for planetary climate warming. For example,
researcher-paleontologist Peter Ward (2002) from the University of Washington
thinks global warming is caused by volcanic activity. Ward and Brownlee (2004)
believe that
``we live in a turbulent period of human history, a time of catastrophic

wars, sweeping political movements, revolutionary social change, bewildering
discovery, and religious and philosophic tumult.''
We cannot disagree with Stanley (2005) and Stanley et al. (2005) that our planet is a
system of integrated components driven by the Earth's internal heat and external
energy from the Sun. It is evident that geospheric processes like plate tectonics,
volcanism, and the rock cycle are linked to the hydrosphere, atmosphere, climate
system, and biosphere, and their interactions form the global processes that we
observe.
Dierent opinions concerning global warming are determined by new scenarios
for climate change in the 21st century, which predict such changes to be more
substantial than previously supposed. According to data from IPCC (2001), the
increase in mean annual global SAT could reach 5.8 C by 2100. Five years earlier
(IPCC, 1996) this estimate was only 3.5 C.
As Kerr (2001a, b) rightly pointed out, the latest report (IPCC, 2001) said the
world could be as much as 5.8 C warmer in 2100 than it is today. Five years ago, the
panel set the upper end of the range at 3.5 C. Climatologists, however, were more
impressed by something that drew little public notice: the range of the IPCC's
projections has actually widened over the past 5 years. To many climate modelers,
this is not surprising. Moreover, numerical modeling is restricted by the very limited
amounts of observational data: the SAT data series, for example, covers only about
100 years.
Though most specialists believe observed global warming is probably determined
by the growth in GHG concentration, in many respects the range of estimates of
possible climate change have not convergedÐbut widened.
Basic uncertainties in the estimates of climate change relate to three aspects
. detection of global warming from observational data;

. ascription of global warming as anthropogenically induced; and
. forecast of future climate changes.
According to Kerr (2001a, b), new data from IPCC (2001) narrow the range of
uncertainties in the case of the ®rst two aspects of the problem, yet future climate
forecasts have become still more uncertain. According to IPCC (2001), observed
global warming constituted 0.6 0.2 C (at the 95% level of statistic signi®cance),
with the greater part of warming observed during the last 50 years being (at a
probability between 66% and 90%) determined by the growth in GHG concentra-
tions. Since one of the main reasons for uncertainties in numerical climate modeling is
still linked with inadequate consideration of the climate-forming role of atmospheric
aerosols and clouds, it should be noted that the more we know about aerosols, the
better we understand how little we know about them. This especially concerns
estimates of the impact of aerosols on clouds and, respectively, on climate, which
vary widely.
Unfortunately, the role of uncertainties in numerical climate modeling was not
properly assessed in IPCC (2001). This prompted many specialists to seriously
criticize the report (Kondratyev and Demirchian, 2001; Elsaesser, 2001; Schrope,
2001). IPCC (2007) has retained the basic shortcomings of the former IPCC reports,
introducing the words ``likely'' or ``con®dence'' as symbolic corrections. However,
for the ®rst time this report contains assessments that are impartial and does not
explicitly state the anthropogenic origin of observed global warming.
It is clear that the observed increase in carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous
oxide in the atmosphere cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only. We need
to bear in mind that the changeability of GHG biogeochemical cycles is a complex
function of numerous parameters controlled by the NSS. Unfortunately, there is no
reliable information about the correlations between many of them. This fact is
admitted by experts in IPCC (2007).
IPCC (2007) repeats the error of previous IPCC reports by considering the
climate change problem separately from global ecodynamics. Ecological, geo-
dynamic, geophysical, economic, and social processes that must be studied as a global
single system. This is the only way that RF components can be assessed reliably.
Nevertheless, Nature Magazine (445(7128), February 8, 2007, p. 567) took the
opposite view:
``The IPCC report has served a useful purpose in removing the last ground from
under the sceptics's feet, leaving them looking marooned and ridiculous.''
This comment beggars belief. However, as a political or social statement maybe it is

fair enoughÐbut it is not a scienti®c statement. A few centuries ago what would have
been the consensus on the heliocentric nature of the solar system? Or in the 19th
century what would have been the consensus on Darwin's theory of evolution or on
the age of the Earth and Hutton's unconformity? History has proven over and over
again that truth is not a matter of counting votes, it lies in the ®eld of ecoinformatics
which provides the methodology for combining both data and knowledge about the
environment.
As far as global change is concerned, estimation of present and possible future
changes in global climate is, of course, paramount (Kondratyev, 2001), though in
these estimates the concept of global warming is still preserved, as seen in IPCC
(2001, 2007). We believe this is nothing more than inertia from earlier speculative
ideas that are far from being scienti®c, as convincingly analyzed by Boehmer-
Christiansen (1997, 2000, 2002). A vivid illustration of the contradictory character
of climate estimates are the radically dierent statements on this subject by the two
presidential candidates during the U.S. election campaign (From the Candidates,
2000). While Al Gore is a well-known protagonist for global warming and supports
the Kyoto Protocol, George W. Bush protested against such a (ecological) policy like
that of KP, which would lead to radical increases in prices of petrol, oil products for
heating, natural gas, and electricity. Rati®cation of such an agreement would cause
serious damage to the U.S. economy. The KP is ineective, inadequate, and unjust
with respect to America, since it excludes 80% of the world from participation in
realizing KP recommendations, including such basic centers of population concen-
tration as China and India. In George W. Bush's opinion, primary importance should
be given to development of new ecologically pure technologies and the use of market
mechanisms, including freedom from regulation of electricity and natural gas
markets, taxation on emissions, and emissions trading. George W. Bush believes
that natural gas and nuclear energy will play an important role in reducing America's
dependence on foreign oil and in providing the country with energy resources in the
21st century. By agreeing with radical critics of KP, we should note that the opinion
of George W. Bush about market mechanisms is speci®c to the U.S.A. and the
concept of emissions trading is disputable.
Pravda on October 26, 2004 published articles headlined ``Russia has to ratify the
Kyoto Protocol to become a WTO member,'' ``Russia needs to ratify the document to
make it work, as Russia is the world's second largest source of greenhouse gases.''
The adherents of KP rati®cation in Russia have attempted to sway public opinion
and could win despite the opinion of many experts. Nevertheless, discussions on this
subject still continue.
A convincing illustration of the groundlessness of KP is the result of the Sixth

Session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-6) of the representatives of
the signatory countries held on November 13±24, 2000, in The Hague. There were
7,000 participants in this conference representing 182 governments, 323 intergovern-
mental and non-governmental organizations, and 443 from the mass media.
Congressman Joe Barton (a Republican from Texas) announced that if George W.
Bush won the election, then he would recommend him to reject the KP and start
negotiations in order to free the economy from unsubstantiated ecological restric-
tions, since
``what we see here (at COP-6) is rather a senseless exercise or, at least, an exercise
in making things up, and therefore nothing discussed during this week should be
supported by voting.''
Formerly, at the U.S. representatives' press brie®ng (November 10, 1998; Buenos
Aires, Argentina; 4th Conference of the Parties on the UNFCCC) he told them:
`Ì must tell you, having been an ocial observer in Kyoto, and now at this
conference, I do not see that much has changed. It appears to me that the Clinton
administration intends to implement this treaty by osmosis, simply let it kind of
®lter in and everybody assumes that it is the thing to do. Well, I want to inform all
our good friends and allies in Western Europe and Japan and Asia, Central and
South America, that the United States democracy doesn't work that way.''
Congressman Joe Knollenberg continued:
``The Kyoto Protocol is, I believe, fatally ¯awed. It's too much, too soon, and
there are too few developing nations that are considered in this whole scheme.
I think what we have to do, because of the immature science involved here, I think
we have to slow down. Let's not walk away from it, but let's slow down. Let's
perfect the science. We haven't really had any kind of debate through Congress or
otherwise on this whole issue of carbon dioxide and global warming.''
Although the Executive Director of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP)

Klaus ToÈpfer rejected the proposition to consider nuclear energy as an important
prospect for future energy, representatives from the U.S.A. and Japan announced in
the Hague that they would be ready to support ®nancing of projects on nuclear
energy in developing countries as a means of reducing CO2 emissions to the
atmosphere.
Discussions in the Hague were characterized by the dierence in opinion between
the U.S.A. and countries of the European Union which rejected the proposition of
the U.S.A. to balance carbon by using various mechanisms (including planting of
forests as a sink of carbon) and demanded that the U.S.A. implement recommenda-
tions to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere.
Recommendations approved at the COP-6.2 (second part of COP-6) meeting in

July 2001 in Bonn can only be described as absurd (U.N., 2002). The notion of
certi®ed emission reduction (CER) was introduced, which means substituting carbon
sinks, like forests, for a real reduction in emissions (WI, 2006; Seiler-Hausmann et al.,
2004). According to this innovation, Japan, Russia, and Canada are permitted to
accumulate CER due to forests in these countries. The absurdity of this recommenda-
tion is mainly determined by the fact that the global carbon cycle is still far from being
understood, and therefore getting reliable estimates of the role of CER as a factor
aecting the global climate is unreal. The subject matter that caused heated discus-
sions consisted of the three ``¯exibility mechanisms'' (i.e., joint accomplishment,
emissions trading, development of pure technologies). This can only be assessed
as purely rhetorical. Seiler-Hausmann et al. (2004) discussed the concepts of `èco-
eciency'' and ``produce more with less''. That is to say, when goods and services
satisfy human needs, when increases in the standard of living are at competitive
prices, and when environmental impacts and resource intensity are decreased to such
a degree that keeps them within the limits of Earth's expected carrying capacity. Eco-
eciency, a term ®rst proposed by the World Business Council for Sustainable
Development in 1992, is a management approach that allows businesses to carry
out environmental protection measures from a market-oriented point of view, with
the aim of illustrating that ecology and economy do not need to be contradictory.
Indeed, eco-eciency has been portrayed as a win±win situation for both business
and the environment.
The main aspect of global climate change, despite general agreement about
global climate warming in the 20th century (especially regarding the last quarter
of the century), relates to identifying the causes of warming (and especially estimating
quantitatively the contributions of various factors to global carbon change), which
remains even today the subject of heated scienti®c discussions. This is true of climate
forecasts that take anthropogenic impacts into account. It is a sign of hope that IPCC
(2007) rejected the de®nition of the notion of ``climate change'' approved by the
UNFCCC as determined by only anthropogenic factors, and agreed that an adequate
de®nition should take on board both natural and anthropogenic causes of climate
change. It should be added that the traditional de®nition of climate is `àn event
characterized by the estimates of its parameters averaged over 30 years.'' Let us now
brie¯y discuss observational data based mainly on IPCC (2001, 2007).
7.2.1.2 Observational data

The main cause of contradictions in studies of climate and current changes in it
rests with the inadequacy of observational databases from the viewpoint of their
completeness and quality. Of course, climate is made up of many parameters, such as
. air temperature and humidity near the Earth surface and in the free atmosphere;
. precipitation (liquid and solid);
. cloud amount, the height of their lower and upper boundaries;
. the microphysical and optical properties of clouds;
. radiation balance and its components;

. the microphysical and optical parameters of atmospheric aerosols; and
. chemical composition of the atmosphere, etc.
Meanwhile, empirical analysis of climate data is limited, as a rule, by SAT

observations that are only available for a data series of 100±150 years. However,
even these data series are heterogeneous, especially with regard to the global data-
base, which is the main source of information for substantiation of the global
warming concept. Also, the fact should be borne in mind that the globally averaged
secular trend of SAT values is based, to a great extent, on the use of imperfect
observed data on sea surface temperature (SST).
When using observational data to diagnose climate change, emphasis should be
laid on analyzing climate variability in which the consideration of movementsÐnot
averagesÐis the important thing. Unfortunately, there have been no attempts to use
this approach. The same refers to estimates of the internal correlation of observation
series. But, analysis of the secular trend of SAT shows that by ®ltering out the
contribution to temperature variations in recent decades at the expense of internal
correlations (i.e., determined by the climate system's inertia), it turns out that
temperature has practically not changed. The fact is paradoxical: the increase in
global mean SAT during the last 20±30 years is the basis for conclusions concerning
anthropogenic contribution to present-day climate change.
Air temperature. According to SAT observations (which began in 1860), annual

and global averages of air temperature increased by 0.6 0.2 C according to IPCC
(2001) and by 0.76 [0.57 to 0.95] C according to IPCC (2007). This is approximately
0.15 C higher than the value given in the IPCC-1996 report (Kondratyev, 1999b),
which was explained by the high SAT level between 1995 and 2000. Observational
data revealed a strong spatiotemporal variability in annual mean SAT over the
globe. This manifested itself, for instance, in climate warming in the 20th century
taking place during two time periods: 1919±1945 and since 1976. Warming in the
Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century was, apparently, the strongest for the last
1,000 years, the 1990s being the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year. An
important feature of climate dynamics consisted in the average rate of increase of
nocturnal (minimum) SAT values on land being almost twice as high as that of
diurnal (maximum) SAT values since 1950 (0.2 C against 0.1 C/10 years). This
favored longer frost-free periods in many regions of moderate and high latitudes.
IPCC (2001) does not mention the earlier supposed increase of climate warming
in the NH high latitudes as a characteristic indicator of anthropogenic global
warming. However, an analysis of direct SAT measurements at North Pole stations
over 30 years (Adamenko and Kondratyev, 1999) and of dendroclimatic indirect data
for the last 2±3 centuries shows that there had not been any homogeneous enhance-
ment in warming. Climate changes during the last century and the last decade were
characterized by their strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity: in the Arctic, there were
regions that experienced both climate warming and climate cooling simultaneously
(Sieg et al., 1996; Soros, 2000). IPCC (2007) emphasizes the following facts:
. Mountain glaciers have receded and snow cover has decreased in both hemi-
spheres, causing a rise in World Ocean level. The rate of this for 1961±2003 and
1993±2003 constituted 1.8 0.5 mm/yr and 3.1 0.7 mm/yr.
. The Arctic temperature varied widely over 10-year periods, with the warmest
being between 1925 and 1945. From satellite observations, the annual mean ice
cover in the Arctic since 1978 has decreased at the rate of 2.7% per decade, and in
summer this reached 7.4%.
. Since 1980, the temperature of the permafrost upper layer increased by 3 C.
Since 1900, the maximum area of seasonally freezing land in northern latitudes
diminished by 7%.
From airborne observations (which began in the 1950s when the adequacy of
such observations became satisfactory), the trends in global mean SAT and in lower
troposphere temperature were almost the same (about 0.10 C/10 years) (Angell,
1999, 2000a, b). From satellite microwave remote sensing (which began in 1979),
there was an increase in global mean temperature of the lower troposphere by about
0.06 C/10 years, much below the SAT increase (0.15 C/10 years). This dierence in
warming manifests itself mainly in ocean areas in the tropics and sub-tropics, and it is
not clear why this is so (Christy et al., 1998).
Snow and ice cover extent. In the 20th century, since the end of the 1960s a 10%
decrease in snow cover extent has been observed as has a two-week reduction in the
annual duration of lake and river ice cover at NH middle and high latitudes, while in
non-polar regions mountain glaciers retreated. The change in NH sea ice cover
extent in spring and summer since the 1950s varied within 10%±15%. In recent
decades (between late summer and early fall) the Arctic sea ice cover thickness has
decreased by about 40%, but in winter the decrease was less substantial. From
NASA estimates, the total area of Arctic sea ice constituted 6.0 million km 2 in
2002, 5.6 million km 2 in 2005, and 5.9 million km 2 in 2006. According to
Chapman and Walsh (1993), since 1961 the Arctic sea ice cover extent has been
decreasing by 3.6%/10 years. More pessimistic estimates were given by the
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Norway. From its data,
this rate constituted 4.6%, and for the period 1978±1994 it constituted 5.8%
(Johannessen et al., 1996).
Regular satellite observations (which began in the 1970s) have not revealed any
marked trend in variations of Antarctic ice cover extent. The Antarctic contains more
than 90% of the world's ice, and the loss of any signi®cant part of it would cause a
substantial sea level rise. According to IPCC (2007), melting of the Antarctic ice sheet
was raising World Ocean level at a rate of 0.14 0.41 mm yr 1 between 1961 and
2003 and 0.21 0.35 mm yr 1 between 1993 and 2003. As can be seen from these
values, the level of uncertainty in estimates of the state of the Antarctic ice sheet
remains great.
Surface level and ocean upper-layer heat content. During the 20th century the
World Ocean level rose by 0.1 m±0.2 m. Apparently, this was caused by the thermal
expansion of seawater and ice melting on land due to global warming. The rate of
World Ocean level rise in the 20th century exceeded 10 times that observed during
the last 3,000 years. Since the end of the 1950s (when SST changes became frequent),
the heat content of the ocean upper layer has been increasing.
Levitus et al. (2001) analyzed data on the warming of some components of the
climate system during the second half of the 20th century. These data were derived
from the growth of the heat content of the atmosphere and ocean as well as from
estimates of heat losses as a result of some components of the cryosphere melting. The
results led to the conclusion that the heat content of the atmosphere and ocean is
growing. The growth of the heat content in the 3 km ocean layer between 1950 and
1990 exceeded (at least, by an order of magnitude) the increase of the heat content in
other components of the climate system. The ocean absorbs more than 80% of
additional heat received by the climate system. While the observed increase in ocean
heat content between 1955 and 1996 reached 18.2 10 22 Joule, that for the atmo-
sphere constituted only 6.6 10 21 Joule. The values of latent heat due to water phase
transformations were
. 8.1 10 21 Joule (a decrease of the mass of glaciers on land);

. 3.2 10 21 Joule (a decrease of the Antarctic sea ice cover extent);
. 1.1 10 21 Joule (melting of mountain glaciers);
. 4.6 10 19 Joule (a decrease of the NH snow cover extent); and
. 2.4 10 19 Joule (melting of the Arctic permafrost).
Observational data were compared (Levitus et al., 2001) with results of numerical
modeling using the GFDL interactive model of the atmosphere±ocean system by
considering
(1) radiative forcings determined by the observed growth in GHG concentrations,

changes in the content of sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, extra-atmospheric
insolation, and volcanic aerosol; and
(2) only GHGs and sulfate aerosol.
The results led to the conclusion that changes observed in the ocean heat content
can mainly be explained by the growth in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere,
though we should bear in mind the substantial uncertainty in RF estimates due to
sulfate aerosol and volcanic eruptions. The latter reduces the reliability of work
(Levitus et al., 2001) trying to ascertain anthropogenic warming. Pointing to the
strong interannual variability in World Ocean heat content, Levitus et al. (2001)
emphasized that the extreme heating of the World Ocean during the 1990s was partly
connected with multi-decadal warming of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans as well as
with two-year oscillations of the Paci®c. The changes observed in World Ocean heat
content can also be connected with hemispheric or global variability in the atmo-
sphere from sea level up to the stratosphere. Understanding the nature of such
possible connections plays an important role in understanding the mechanisms that

govern global climate. Some data on the climate system's heat balance are given in
Table 7.3.
As mentioned above, recent attempts to identify the level of atmospheric climate
change have been con®ned to analyses of comparatively long data series on SAT,
though smaller volumes of data on changes in sea ice cover extent, vertical tempera-
ture pro®le (radiosonde data), and results of satellite microwave sensing have also
been considered (Christy et al., 1998). However, numerical modeling results show
Table 7.3. Comparison of the heat balance of the climate system. From Levitus et al. (2001).
Component of Time period of Observed or Assumption Heat content

the climate change estimated made in increase or total
system change calculation by heat of fusion
means of GCM
World Ocean 1955±1996 Observed 18.2 10 22 J

temperature
increase
Global 1955±1996 Observed 6.6 10 21 J

atmosphere temperature
increase
Decrease in the 1955±1996 Ð Assumed 8.1 10 21 J

mass of 1.8 mm per
continental year increase in
glaciers sea level
Decrease in 1950s±1970s Estimated 100% ice 3.2 10 21 J

Antarctic sea ice 311 km coverage of 2 m
extent reduction in sea thickness
ice edge
Mountain glacier 1961±1997 3.7 10 3 km 3 Ð 1.1 10 21 J

decrease decrease in
mountain glacier
ice volume
Decrease in 1978±1996 Areal change 100% ice 4.6 10 19 J

Northern based on coverage of 2 m
Hemisphere sea satellite thickness
ice extent measurements
Decrease in 1950s±1990s 40% decrease in Thickness of the 2.4 10 19 J

Arctic perennial sea ice thickness melted sea ice
sea ice volume 1.3 m
Notation: is the density of ice ( 9:17 10 11 kg km 3

), and is latent heat ( 3:34 10 5 J kg 1 ).
that data on the annual trend and on the diurnal trend of winter air temperature need
to be more representative than SAT.
Since the World Ocean is the most inertial component of the global climate
system, analyzing its variability is a top priority, especially as Levitus et al. (2001)
detected annual increases in the heat content of the upper layer of all oceans over the
last 45 years. With this in mind, Barnett et al. (2001) compared numerical modeling
results of the heat content of the upper 3 km layer of various oceans with observa-
tional data. Calculations were made using the ``parallel'' climate model (PCM) for the
atmosphere±ocean system without any ¯ux adjustment. Calculations were made of
®ve versions of the forecast growth in GHG concentration and sulfate aerosol
content in the atmosphere.
This comparison showed that calculated anomalies in heat content do not dier
from observational values (between 1950 and 1990) by more than 5%, with the
exception (for global averaging) of data for the 1970s, when the model does not
reproduce the heat content anomaly observed in this decade. On the whole, the
probability that these anomalies in heat content are explained only by internal vari-
ability of the climate system does not exceed 5%, which implies the anthropogenic
nature of climate change.
The nature of the warming of various oceans can be quite dierent. Intensive
vertical mixing and rapid penetration of warming into deep layers are typical of the
Atlantic Ocean (especially in its southern sector). In other oceans this process is much
slower. An important conclusion from such results is the need for climate models to
not only simulate SAT changesÐbut also those in ocean heat content. Numerical
modeling has its weak points, as noted by Barnett et al. (2001), so estimating
internally induced climate variability completely based on data from numerical
modeling is fraught with problems.
The impact of enhanced greenhouse heating on SST in the tropical Paci®c can
considerably aect global-scale precipitation. Developments in this area based on
using results from both observational data and numerical modeling have led to quite
dierent conclusions. Climate warming in recent decades has a spatial structure
similar to that of an El NinÄo±Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. But since there
are no data on such a structure for the whole century, the observed warming is
assumed to be a manifestation of multi-decadal natural variability of climateÐnot
the result of greenhouse forcing.
Initial numerical modeling results obtained using interactive models of the
atmosphere±ocean system showed that the structure of warming characterized by
the zonal SST gradient in the equatorial band should be similar to El NinÄo, but some
theoretical developments suggest similarities between this structure and La NinÄa. To
resolve this controversy, numerical climate modeling was performed (Platt and
Austin, 2002) using the CSIRO Mark 2 interactive model developed at the
Commonwealth Scienti®c and Industrial Research Organization of Australia. The
results showed formation, ®rst, of a spatial structure of warming similar to La NinÄa
(the strongest warming being observed in extra-tropical latitudes and a weak La
NinÄa-like structure in the tropics). Later on (after the 1960s) this warming is trans-
formed into a structure similar to El NinÄo (CRC, 2005; Pittick, 2003). Such results
have been obtained using three versions of numerical modeling (apart from the
control integration for the 1,000-year period) in which the growth in GHG concen-
trations in the atmosphere was prescribed from observational data (1880±1990) and
according to the scenario IS92a (1990±2100). The climate-forming role of aerosol was
not considered (Alcamo et al., 1995; Leggett et al., 1992).
Transformation of the spatial structure of climate warming is determined by
warm extra-tropical waters, which move southward and through the sub-tropics
reach the tropical belt where upwelling occurs. This is the cause of climate change.
These results support the conclusion that the warming (with a spatial structure
similar to El NinÄo) observed during recent decades can at least partially be explained
by anthropogenic contributions to the atmospheric greenhouse eect. However,
though the structure of observed and calculated warming is similar, observations
made before 1950 are less reliable. Moreover, conditions similar to La NinÄa have
recently been observed (in 1995±1996 and in 1998±2000).
La NinÄa, ``sister'' of El NinÄo, also refers to a set of anomalous climate conditions
in the tropical Paci®c, but with anomalously cool SSTs, strong east-to-west trade
winds, exceptionally heavy rains in usually rainy areas near the western Paci®c, and
very dry weather in usually dry areas near the eastern Paci®c. In many ways, the
climate anomalies associated with La NinÄa are opposite to those that characterize El
NinÄo. During La NinÄa episodes, equatorial SSTs are abnormally cold from the Date
Line eastward to the west coast of South America, and tropical rains and convection
tend to be focused over the western equatorial Paci®c and Indonesia. Over the eastern
equatorial Paci®c the rains are typically weaker as SSTs remain well below 28 C in
this region throughout the episode. This pattern represents an ampli®cation of
climatological mean conditions which are characterized by heavy rains across
Indonesia and light rains over the eastern equatorial Paci®c. This persistent pattern
of tropical rainfall contributes to stronger-than-average monsoon systems over Aus-
tralia/Southern Asia, South and Central America, and Africa. Historically, El NinÄo
and La NinÄa events have usually alternated with a period of about 2±7 years.
However, since the late 1970s, El NinÄo years have outnumbered La NinÄa years by
a factor of about 2 to 1.
Other climatic parameters. Observational data testify to the following:
. During the 20th century, precipitation intensity increased by 0.5%±1%/10 years

over most land regions in NH middle and high latitudes.
. Precipitation intensity decreased by about 0.3%/10 years over most land in
subtropical latitudes, and quite recently it decreased.
. Changes in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans have led to water
freshening in middle and high latitudes and to the growth in ocean salinity in
low latitudes.
. Since the 1960s, mid-latitude westerlies have enhanced in both hemispheres.
. Since the 1970s, droughts have intensi®ed over large regions in the tropics and
sub-tropics.
. During the last 50 years events have frequently been observed with drastic
temperature drops, frequent warm days and nights, and not-so-frequent cold
days and nights.
. Since the 1970s, cyclonic activity in the tropics has intensi®ed.
As for the World Ocean, the lack of adequate observational data means reliable
trends of precipitation cannot be detected. In recent decades, though, it is likely that
intensive and extreme precipitation in NH middle and high latitudes has become
more frequent. Since the mid-1970s, ENSO events have been frequent, stable and
intensive. This ENSO dynamics was re¯ected in speci®c regional variations of pre-
cipitation and SAT in most zones of the tropics and sub-tropics. Data on the intensity
and frequency of occurrence of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones as well as local
storms still remain fragmentary and inadequate and conclusions on any trends
cannot be reached (Grigoryev and Kondratyev, 2001a, b).
Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere.

Ever since 1750 the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about
one-third reaching the highest level for the last 420,000 years (and, probably, for the
last 20 million years), which can be seen from ice core data (IPCC, 2001). The growth
of CO2 concentration by about two-thirds during the last 20 years is explained by
emissions to the atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning (deforestation and, to a lesser
extent, the cement industry contribute one-third). It is of interest that by the end of
1999, CO2 emissions in the U.S.A. exceeded the 1990 level by 12%, and if the current
rate of increase continues by 2008 this value will likely raise by 10% (Victor, 2001).
Meanwhile, according to the Kyoto Protocol, emissions should be reduced by 7% by
the year 2008 with regard to the level of 1990, which requires a total reduction of
about 25% (which, of course, is just not feasible).
According to available observational data, both the World Ocean and land are
global sinks for CO2 . In the ocean, chemical and biological processes are responsible
for it, whereas on land it is connected with enhanced so-called ``fertilization'' of
vegetation due to increased concentrations of CO2 and nitrogen, as well as with
changes in land use. On the whole, our understanding of the global carbon cycle
leaves much to be desired (Kondratyev and Demirchian, 2000).
There is no doubt that fossil fuel burning will remain the main constituent in CO2
concentration growth in the 21st century. The role of the biosphere (both of the ocean
and land) as a barrier to increased CO2 will reduce in time. According to IPCC
(2001), the probable interval of CO2 concentration values by the end of the century
will constitute 540 ppm±970 ppm (pre-industrial and present values are, respectively,
280 ppm and 367 ppm). Change in land use (Watson et al., 2000; Aspinall and Justice,
2004; IPCC, 2000; Singh et al., 2001) is an important factor of the global carbon
cycle, but even if all carbon emitted to the atmosphere due to land use is assimilated
by the land biosphere, this will only lead to a decrease in CO2 concentration between
40 ppm and 70 ppm. As for prognostic estimates of other GHG concentrations by the
year 2010, they vary widely. For instance, some estimates predict TO as a GHG might
equal the contribution of methane and be just as important a factor of air quality
reduction over most of the Northern Hemisphere.
The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has increased by a factor of 2.5
compared with that observed in 1750, and goes on growing. The global atmospheric
concentration of CH4 has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to
1,732 ppb in the early 1990s, and to 1,774 ppb in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). The annual rate
of CH4 increase has reduced, however, and became more variable in the 1990s than in
the 1980s. Ever since 1750, nitrous oxide concentration has increased by 16%. As a
result of the Montreal Protocol and subsequent supplements to it, concentrations
of several halocarbon compounds (which function like greenhouse and ozone-
destroying gases) have either increased more slowly or started decreasing. On the
other hand, concentrations of their substitutes and some other synthetic compounds
have started growing rapidly (e.g., per¯uorocarbons, PFCs, and sulfur hexa¯uoride,
SF6 ).
Estimation of RF change, characterized by an enhanced atmospheric greenhouse
eect and determined by increases of MGCs well mixed in the atmosphere, gave a
total value of 2.42 W m 2 , with the following contributions of various MGCs: CO2
(1.46 W m 2 ), CH4 (0.48 W m 2 ), halocarbon compounds (0.33 W m 2 ), N2 O
(0.15 W m 2 ). The decrease in total ozone content observed in the last 20 years could
lead to a negative RF constituting 0.15 W m 2 , which may well reach zero in the
current century if measures to protect the ozone layer are successful. The increase in
tropospheric ozone content by about one-third observed since 1750 could lead to a
positive RF reaching 0.33 W m 2 .
Since the IPCC-1996 report, substantial change has been observed in estimates of
RF determined not solely by purely scattering sulfate aerosol as traditionally done
before, but also by other types of aerosol, especially carbon (soot), an ecient solar
radiation absorber, as well as by organic, sea salt, and mineral aerosol (Table 7.4).
The strong spatiotemporal variability of aerosol content in the atmosphere and of its
properties seriously complicates assessment of the climatic implications of aerosol
(Kondratyev, 1999a; Kondratyev et al., 2006a). New results of numerical climate
modeling obtained by Hansen et al. (2000) radically changed our understanding of
the role of various factors in RF formation. According to Hansen et al. (2000),
climate warming due to the growth of CO2 concentration and cooling due to anthro-
pogenic emissions of methane (mainly due to changes in rice production) and carbon
(absorbing) aerosol cancel each other out.
The change in extra-atmospheric solar radiation is a climate-forming factor that
should be considered. The contribution of such a change to RF since 1750 might be as
much as 20% compared with the contribution of CO2 . This is mainly explained by
enhanced extra-atmospheric insolation in the second half of the 20th century (con-
sideration of the 11-year cycle of insolation is vital here). However, the mechanisms
that underly the impact of solar activity on climate are still far from being under-
stood. Nonetheless, IPCC (2007) contains some conclusions and estimates.
. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range
over the last 650,000 years (180 ppm to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores.
Table 7.4. Global average RF estimates and ranges in 2005 by IPCC (2007).
Character of RF RF terms RF values

(W m 2 )
Anthropogenic Long-lived GHG

CO2 1.66 [1.49 to 1.83]
N2 O 0.16 [0.14 to 0.19]
CH4 0.48 [0.43 to 0.53]
Halocarbons 0.34 [0.31 to 0.37]
Ozone
Stratospheric 0.05 [ 0.15 to 0.05]
Tropospheric 0.35 [0.25 to 0.65]
Surface albedo
Land use 0.2 [ 0.4 to 0.0]
Black carbon on snow 0.1 [0.0 to 0.2]
Total aerosol
Direct eect 0.5 [ 0.9 to 0.1]
Cloud albedo eect 0.7 [ 1.8 to 0.3]
Linear contrails 0.01 [0.003 to 0.03]
Natural Solar irradiance 0.12 [0.06 to 0.30]
The annual CO2 concentration growth rate was 1.9 ppm per year between 1995
and 2005 with year-to-year variability.
. Annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions increased from an average of 6.4 [6.0 to
6.8] GtC per year in the 1990s to 7.2 [6.9 to 7.5] GtC per year in 2000±2005. CO2
emissions associated with land use change were estimated at 1.6 [0.5 to 2.7] GtC
per year over the 1990s.
. The atmospheric concentration of CH4 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range
of the last 650,000 years (320 ppb to 790 ppb) as determined from ice cores.
. The global atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased from a pre-
industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005. The growth rate has been
approximately constant since 1980 and more than 30% of all nitrous oxide
emissions are primarily due to agriculture.
7.2.1.3 Results of climate numerical modeling and their reliability

The problem of numerical climate modeling has been thoroughly analyzed in numer-
ous publications (Kondratyev, 1998b, 1999b; Kondratyev and Demirchian, 2000;
Soon et al., 2000; Bengtsson, 1999; Houghton, 2001a, b; Schlesinger and Andronova,
2000; SchroÈder, 2000; McGue and Henderson-Sellers, 2001). So, we will con®ne
ourselves to brief comments. Considerable progress has been achieved in developing
more adequate numerical climate models by taking the main components of the
atmosphere±hydrosphere±lithosphere±cryosphere±biosphere climate system taken
into account. The extreme complexity of climate models and empirical parameteriza-
tion of the various (especially sub-grid) processes used in them hinders analyzing
model adequacy, especially from the viewpoint of their application to predict future
climate. As a result of this, attempts undertaken so far to compare the results of
numerical climate modeling with observational data have been rather schematic,
controversial, and unconvincing.
For instance, conclusions about the secular trend of annual mean global SAT for
the last century and a half are unconvincing. If, as the IPCC-1996 Report indicates,
there is a good agreement between observed and calculated trends of SAT (with the
growth of CO2 and sulfate aerosol taken into account) then, following Hansen et al.
(2000), the consideration of methane and carbon aerosol should be more important.
Unfortunately, in both cases the conclusions are based on arbitrary opinions, and the
agreement with observations is, in fact, no more than an adjustment. Moreover, it is
clear that, for a comparison of theory with observations to be thorough, considera-
tion of regional climate changes (not only SAT) and not only averages of climatic
parametersÐbut also their variability characterized by higher order moments.
According to Charlson et al. (2001), anthropogenic aerosols strongly aect cloud
albedo. Here, estimates of global mean disturbing forcings of clouds are opposite in
sign to RF as a result of greenhouse gases; they might be even greater in absolute
value.
The parameterization of biospheric dynamics is the Achilles' heel of climate
models. In attempts to bring this about, many numerical experiments have been
undertaken to assess the eect of deforestation in the Amazon Basin, which have
led to the conclusion that the consequence of complete deforestation of this region
(tropical rainforest becoming grassland), will be increased evaporation from the
Earth surface, decreased precipitation, but surface temperature will rise. The result-
ing increase of SAT will vary between 0.3 C and 3 C. Such changes are determined
mainly by an increase in surface albedo and a decrease in soil moisture. The asso-
ciated decrease in energy and water vapor ¯uxes to the atmosphere, reduction of
moist convection, and release of latent heat will result in atmospheric heating being
reduced, which will produce the following changes to atmospheric circulation:
. Changes in upward and downward air ¯uxes in the tropics and sub-tropics
(known as Hadley circulation cells). The Hadley cell is a circulation pattern that
dominates the tropical atmosphere, with air rising near the equator, ¯owing
poleward at 10 km±15 km above the surface, descending in the sub-tropics,
and ¯owing equatorward near the surface. This circulation is intimately related
to trade winds, tropical rainbelts, subtropical deserts, and jet streams. Trade
winds are a pattern of wind in bands around the Earth's equatorial region. Trade
winds prevail in the tropics, blowing from the high-pressure area in the horse1
1
Horse latitudes, or subtropical highs, are subtropic latitudes between 30 and 35 , both north
and south.
latitudes toward the low-pressure area around the equator. Trade winds blow
predominantly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the
southeast in the Southern Hemisphere. Jet streams are fast-¯owing, relatively
narrow air currents observed in the atmosphere at around 11 km (36,000 ft)
above the surface of the Earth, just beneath the tropopause. They form at
the boundaries of adjacent air masses that have signi®cant dierences in
temperature, such as where polar air meets warmer air to the south.
. Variations in the conditions of generation of Rossby waves propagating from the
tropics to mid-latitudes. Rossby waves, also known as planetary waves as they
owe their origin to the shape and rotation of the Earth, are most intriguing
natural phenomena. They are easily observed in the atmosphere (i.e., as large-
scale meanders of the mid-latitude jet stream), but their existence in the oceans,
®rst theorized by Carl-Gustav Rossby in the 1930s, was only indirectly con®rmed
before the advent of satellite oceanography.
For a more detailed analysis of the impact of deforestation on atmospheric

circulation and climate, Gedney and Valdes (2001) performed numerical experiments
to reproduce the present (``control'') climate and conditions of complete deforesta-
tion of the Amazon Basin. For this purpose, a 19-level spectral model of atmospheric
general circulation (MPI ECHAM3 T42 L19) was used (Busch et al., 1998). The
ECHAM numerical model was developed from the ECMWF (European Center for
Medium Range Weather Forecast) model and contains several changes in order to
adjust the model to climate simulations. These changes were carried out in Hamburg
at the Max-Planck Institut fuÈr Meteorologie, Deutches Klimarechenzentrum, and
Meteorologisches Institut der UniversitaÈt Hamburg. Spherical harmonics with a
reference resolution of T42 were used to formulate the model, which is vertically
divided into 19 layers. Deforestation should result in the following changes to basic
climate-forming parameters: albedo (13.1% ! 17.7%); roughness (2.65 m ! 0.2 m);
share of vegetation cover (0.95 ! 0.85); leaf area index (4.9 ! 1.9); minimum resist-
ance of vegetation cover (150 s m 1 ! 200 s m 1 ); and root zone depth
(1.5 m ! 1.0 m). All this should lead to a change in soil type. Studing the numerical
modeling results reveals a deforestation-induced substantial change of precipitation
in winter in the northeastern sector of the Atlantic Ocean, which propagates farther
eastward, toward Western Europe. These variations are connected with changes in
the large-scale atmospheric general circulation in middle and high latitudes. Applica-
tion of a simple model to reproduce these variations con®rmed their being caused by
propagation of planetary waves, and testi®ed to the fact that the results, which reveal
a connection between processes in the region of deforestation as well as in the North
Atlantic and Western Europe, are independent of the choice of a model, with the level
of changes corresponding to estimates of anthropogenic climate change due to the
growth of CO2 and aerosol concentrations.
Zhang et al. (2001) undertook a much wider numerical modeling of the climatic
consequences of deforestation in the tropics with greenhouse warming increasing as a
result of CO2 doubling, using the CCM1-Oz global climate model developed at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR (U.S.A.). Calculations demon-
strated a strong decrease in evapotranspiration (80 mm yr 1 ) and precipitation

(312 mm yr 1 ) as well as a SAT increase of 3.0 K in the Amazon Basin. Similar
but weaker changes are observed in southeastern Asia (precipitation decreases of
172 mm yr 1 , and warming increases of 2.1 K). Still weaker changes occur in Africa
(precipitation increases of 25 mm yr 1 ). Analysis of the results of energy balance
estimates suggests climate warming takes place not only due to the enhanced green-
house eectÐbut also due to decreasing evapotranspiration caused by deforestation.
Statistically substantial climate change due to deforestation in the tropics also appear
at mid-latitudes.
The IPCC-1996 Report (Khandekar et al., 2005) reached a conclusion, which has
caused heated discussion, that the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human
in¯uence on global climate, and made a statement that the `ànthropogenic signal''
stands out against a background of natural climate variability. According to IPCC
(2001), detection and ascription studies consistently ®nd evidence for the anthropo-
genic signal in the climate record of the last 35±50 years. Natural forcings may have
contributed to the observed warming in the ®rst half of the 20th century but most of
the warming over the last 50 years cannot be explained. The report contains, how-
ever, the statement that reconstruction of climate for the last 1,000 years and model
estimates of its natural changes testify to a small probability that the climate warming
observed in the second half of the 20th century could have been totally natural in
origin. But, then, the high uncertainty of the quantitative estimates obtained for
anthropogenic warming was emphasized, especially from the viewpoint of contribu-
tions of various factors to the warming, especially atmospheric aerosols (IPCC,
2001). The contradictions in these statements and conclusions are so apparent that
no comment is necessary. Moreover, IPCC (2007) fails to remove these contradic-
tions, other than by attempts at mitigating them using such words as ``likely'' and
``very likely''.
Integral models describing the dynamics of the interaction between socio-
economic development and nature should play the leading role in substantiating
future climate predictions. However, the reliability of predictions made using such
extremely complicated models with inadequate input information raises doubts. For
the immediate future, integral models should only serve as a means of obtaining very
conditional scenarios. More encouraging are ideas developed by Bartsev et al. (2003)
and Degermendzhy and Bartsev (2003) where uncertainties in global modeling are
overcome using low-sized models.
According to new data for various scenarios of the growth of concentration of
GHGs and aerosols, the global mean SAT increase during the period 1990±2100
should be within 1.4 C±5.8 C (IPCC, 2001), whereas according to IPCC-1996, this
interval is 1.5 C±3.5 C. The Fourth IPCC Report, which considered various
scenarios, gives a broad spectrum of possible temperature changes within the range
1.1 C±2.9 C. Wigley and Raper (2001) believe, with a 90% probability, this SAT
interval constitutes 1.7 C±4.9 C. The improvement of models and the increase of
their number have not reducedÐbut expandedÐthe divergence of this process. It is
important that dierences in SAT values calculated from various models with similar
scenarios of MGC emissions are approximately equal.
As for regional climate predictions, they are still statistically unreliable.

Probably, the conclusion that warming in many land areas will be more rapid than
global mean warming, especially in high latitudes during the cold half of the year, can
be considered reliable. Particularly remarkable was the pre-calculated climate warm-
ing in the northern regions of North America, as well as in northern and central Asia,
where it exceeds the global mean value by 40%. In contrast, in southern and south-
eastern Asia in summer and in the south of South America in winter the warming
should be weaker than global mean warming. Numerical modeling reveals a future
increase in atmospheric water content and intensi®ed precipitation. In particular, an
enhancement of precipitation is possible at middle and high latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere, as well as in the Antarctic in winter (this conclusion is of special interest
in the context of glacier dynamics). At low latitudes there may be regions where both
intensi®cation and attenuation of precipitation will be observed (depending on the
choice of MGC emission scenario).
In connection with the great interest in potential extreme events, IPCC (2001,
2007) contain respective prognostic estimates for comparison with present observa-
tions (Table 7.5). This was discussed in detail by Grigoryev and Kondratyev (2001c)
and Kondratyev (1998b). Vagueness of the tabulated conclusions is explained by
scarce observational data and unreliable numerical modeling results.
Calculations of anthropogenic (greenhouse) climate change show that thermo-
haline circulation (THC) in NH oceans may weaken in the future. However, even the
models that show this weakening still demonstrate that greenhouse warming in
Europe will persist. So far, no one knows whether irreversible collapse of THC is
a possibility or which threshold conditions correspond to such a collapse. No existing
model predicts total cessation of THC for the next 60 years.
Numerical modeling of the global warming process shows a further decrease in
the snow and sea ice cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere. Glaciers are expected
to retreat further (except the ice sheets in Greenland and in the Antarctic, including
the western Antarctic) in the 21st century. The prescribed scenarios for the growth of
GHG concentrations between 1990 and 2100 expect World Ocean level to rise
between 0.14 m and 0.8 m (about 0.47 m on average), which exceeds the rate in the
20th century by a factor of 2±4.
Implications of the anthropogenic impact on global climate are expected to be
long term. For example,
. Stabilization of the level of CO2 in the atmosphere will require considerable

reduction in CO2 emissions to the atmosphere and an even greater reduction
in emissions of other GHGs.
. The eect of CO2 emissions on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is not
immediateÐbut gradual. Even several centuries after cessation of emissions, the
share of CO2 in the atmosphere may well reach 20%±30% with respect to overall
emissions.
. The increase in global mean SAT and the rise in World Ocean level (due to
thermally induced expansion) is likely to continue for hundreds of years after
stabilization of the level of CO2 because of the huge inertia of the ocean.
Table 7.5. Observed and predicted anomalous changes of weather and climate.
Phenomenon Observations (second half of Forecast (2050±2100)

the 19th century
Anomalous maxima of Almost all land regions Such anomalies are revealed
temperature and the number by most models
of unusually hot days
Increased heat index Many land regions Such anomalies are revealed
by most models
Abnormally intensive Many regions in middle and Such anomalies are revealed
precipitation high latitudes of the by most models
Northern Hemisphere
Abnormally high temperature Almost all land regions Such anomalies are revealed
minima and reduction in the by most models
number of cold days
Decrease in the number of Almost all land regions Possible if the increase in
days with frost minimum temperatures
is taken into account
Decrease in the amplitude of Many land regions Almost all models

diurnal change of
temperature
Summertime dehydration of Some regions Almost all models

continents
Maximum wind Not observed, but studied Some models

intensi®cation in tropical cases are few
cyclones
Intensi®cation of average and Data are insucient Some models

maximum rains in tropical
cyclones
. The response of ice sheets to previous climate changes can last for millennia after
stabilization. According to model calculations, maintenance of local annual
mean warming at the 3 C level for millennia could lead to complete melting
of the Greenland ice sheet. At 5 C, the World Ocean level should rise (due to the
melting of the Greenland ice sheet) by 3 m in 1,000 years. Present models of ice
sheet dynamics in the western Antarctic show that, as in the case of the
Greenland ice sheet, its complete melting would result in an increase in ocean
level of no more than 3 m in 1,000 years. But, we should keep in mind the
inadequacy of studies into possible long-term dynamics of the cryosphere of
the western Antarctic.
Conclusions about observed and, even more so, potential climate change in the
future are very uncertain. This applies both to the diagnostic data of present climate
dynamics and to numerical modeling results. These issues have been studied in detail
(Kondratyev, 1992, 1999b; Sun et al., 2001; Watanabe, 2000). According to IPCC
(2001, 2007), developments along the following lines should be given top priority:
. putting a halt to further degradation of the network set up to make routine

meteorological observations;
. continuing studies in global climate diagnostics to obtain long-term series of
observational data at a higher spatiotemporal resolution than has been the case;
. understanding better the interaction between ocean climate system components
(including those at deep layers) and the atmosphere;
. understanding better the laws that control long-term variability of climate;
. broadening ensemble approaches to climate modeling, especially in the assess-
ments of probabilities;
. developing a totality (hierarchy) of global and regional models with emphasis on
the numerical modeling of regional impacts and extreme changes; and
. developing interactive physico-biological climate models and models of
socio-economic development in order to analyze the relationship between the
environment and society.
As a second priority the following should be added:
. Studies of the paleoclimate, especially of sudden short-term changes (Kukla,

2000), are important to understand the laws of the present climate and climate
prediction.
. The intensive development of spaceborne remote sensing has not provided
adequate global information about the climate system, since the functioning
of the existing system of space-based and routine observations is far from
optimal. Despite considerable eorts and progress in developing the Global
Climate Observing System (GCOS), Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS),
Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), and (later) the Integrated Global
Observing System (IGOS), the problem of optimizing the global observing
system remains unsolved. The fact has not been grasped that, apart from
accumulating long and homogeneous series of observational data in the interests
of the climate system diagnostics, problem-oriented (focused) observation
experiments are needed to solve problems such as the global carbon cycle,
anthropogenic impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, dynamics of
the processes in the aerosol±clouds±radiation system, biotic regulation of the
environment, etc. (Kondratyev, 1992, 1998a; Gorshkov et al., 2000).
. Estimates of the level of anthropogenic impact on global climate contained in
IPCC documents are vague. As Reilly et al. (2001) justly noted, the reason for
this is the absence of quantitative estimates of the uncertainty of the results
obtained (e.g., the supposed increase of SAT within 1.5 C±4.5 C). What is worse,
trying to make decisions ®t with ecological policy (e.g., to the Kyoto Protocol)
is not scienti®c (Sun et al., 2001). This raises into question the feasibility of
forecasts up to 2100, when the impossibility of predicting prospects for global
socio-economic development is considered. The answer is clear: only conditional
scenarios are possible, it would be inexpedient and even dangerous to take them
as the basis for making policy decisions. This is especially true of regional
scenarios, which are of actual practical interestÐbut not of such global averages
as the average temperature of a hospital. Though Allen et al. (2001) try to justify
the absence of quantitative estimates of uncertainties, this logic cannot be
accepted. Things came to a head in 1990 when the IPCC was severely pressed
to make a statement ascribing observed climate change to anthropogenic
forcings; otherwise it would be done by somebody else. The arguments of Wigley
and Raper (2001) in support of the conclusions of IPCC (2001) are quite simply
unconvincing.
. IPCC (2007), like its predecessors, failed to come up with any new prospects for
understanding global climate change. Like the other IPCC reports, it warnsÐ
some would say intimidatesÐthe world population about possible negative
climate changes. For instance, The Washington Post (February 2, 2007)
emphasized the following points from the Report:
(1) ``Global warming is `very likely' caused by man, meaning more than 90
percent certain. That's the strongest expression of certainty to date from
the panel.''
(2) `Ìf nothing is done to change current emissions patterns of greenhouse gases,
global temperature could increase as much as 22 degrees Fahrenheit by
2100.''
(3) ``But if the world does get greenhouse gas emissions under control (some-
thing scientists say they hope can be done) the best estimate is about 3
degrees Fahrenheit.''
(4) ``Sea levels are projected to rise 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. Add
another 4 to 8 inches if recent surprising melting of polar ice sheets con-
tinues.''
These conclusions have been widely propagated among the world population
who are not in a position to assess them critically. However, climate-warming
skeptics, who have knowledge of climatology, have come up with many arguments
questioning the anthropogenic character of the warming of land surface that has been
observed. One of these arguments is the indisputable dierence between this warming
and the temperature decrease in the lower atmosphere recorded by satellites during
recent decades (Hopkin, 2007).
7.2.1.4 Analysis of existing information

The shortage of reliable estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic factors to
formation of today's climate highlights just how dicult it is to understand the
dynamical laws of the climate system, let alone evaluation of possible climate changes
in future. At the same time, nobody rejects anthropogenically induced enhancement
of the atmospheric greenhouse eect. So, the primitive understanding of global

warming as being a general increase of temperature, growing with latitude, is fraught
with danger. Analysis of observational data from high latitudes in the Northern
Hemisphere (Adamenko and Kondratyev, 1999) showed that such judgments do
not match the reality.
To assess the reality of climate predictions, it is critically important to test the
adequacy of models by reproducing current observed changes and looking at the
paleodynamics of climate from indirect data. When it comes to the question of how
current observed data can be used, the situation becomes paradoxical: the experience
gained from testing adequacy is con®ned to the use of average temperatures, while
dierent information and moments of a higher order are what is needed. Goody et al.
(1998) drew attention to the prospects of using space-derived observations of the
spectral distribution of outgoing longwave radiation. Unfortunately, adequate
planning of the climate observing system was not discussed. The present paradoxical
situation is characterized by a huge number of poorly systematized satellite observa-
tions combined with degradation of the routine (in situ) observations mentioned
above.
It is very dicult to test the adequacy of global climate models by comparing the
results of numerical modeling with observational data. Most often, this problem is
solved by comparing a long data series on annual mean global SAT. The main
conclusion, despite substantial (sometimes radical) dierences in the way climate-
forming processes are considered, is almost always the same: on the whole, results of
calculations agree with observational data. The contribution of anthropogenic
factors and, especially, the greenhouse eect (without being able to substantiate it
quantitatively) to formation of the climate characterizesÐeven dominatesÐsuch
conclusions. Of course, such an approach to veri®cation of the models should not
be taken seriously since
(i) Climate models still fall short of what is required regarding interactive account
of biospheric processes, aerosol±clouds±radiation interaction, and many other
factors.
(ii) The only long-term (100±150 years) series of SAT observations is far from being
adequate regarding calculations of annual mean global SAT values.
Recent developments by GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, IGOS are useful, but they still
have not come up with the means of optimizing a global observing system. This
problem was discussed in detail in Kondratyev (1998b), Kondratyev and Cracknell
(1998), and Goody et al. (1998, 2001). The problem revolves around the imperfection
of climate models, which should serve as the conceptual basis when planning observa-
tions and be speci®ed as models are being improved. In this connection, it should be
emphasized that what is needed is not illusory statements about global climate models
being good enoughÐbut an analysis of dierences revealing weak points in the
models. It is evident that a totality of climate parameters should be consideredÐ
not only SATÐwith emphasis on the models' capability to simulate climate change
(including, at the very least, moments of second order).
Paleodata reveal the strongest and sometimes very fast climate changes in the
geological past. Alverson et al. (2000) noted, for instance, that changes in ocean level,
both raised and lowered, had exceeded 100 m at a stable rate of more than 1 m per
1,000 years. Such changes are much greater than anthropogenic changes due to a
doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, which re¯ects the groundless
misgivings broadcast about anthropogenic climate forcings. The real problem we
face consists in analyzing the sensitivity of society and its infrastructures to potential
climate changes than to provide detailed future climate predictions. It should be
borne in mind that for many countries, including the U.S.A. and Russia, predicted
warming is a bene®t rather than a danger. In this connection, the value of paleodata
as a climate predictor can be higher than that of conditional scenarios obtained on the
basis of numerical modeling.
As for climate predictions and KP recommendations to reduce GHG emissions
to the atmosphere, well it is clear that climate predictions cannot be interpreted other
than as conditional scenarios, and KP recommendations, respectively, should be
considered unrealistic. Thus, the sooner the IPCC rejects the ungrounded, unrealistic,
and dangerous (for socio-economic development) recommendations contained in the
Kyoto Protocol the better. The complete failure of the sixth Conference of the Parties
(COP-6) by representatives of the signatory countries to the UNFCCC held in the
Hague in November 2000 and of the subsequent meeting in Bonn testi®es to the
futility of these expensive conferences and to a need for serious scienti®c discussions
on the problem of global climate change, free from domination of adherents of the
global warming concept. The reality is that GHG emissions to the atmosphere are
still growing (and this process will continue), while discussions on the importance of
``¯exible market mechanisms'' (i.e., emissions trading, etc.) are totally rhetorical.
Not all assessments of the present state of climate theory are optimistic. An
extensive discussion on the global warming paradigm was organized at the conference
in London on January 27, 2005 at the Hadley Center where various points of view
were considered. Some climate scientists insist, unlike others, that human activity and
climate change are directly linked. Professor Fred Singer, former director of the U.S.
Weather Satellite Service, told the BBC:
`Ìt's certainly not a cause of alarm. The greenhouse warming from increased gas
emissions is, as far as we can tell, insigni®cant. The IPCC's predictions are based
entirely on models, not observations. You must either improve the models or
prove the observations are wrong.''
In this connection it is appropriate to state that there is no point in contesting that

anthropogenic factors impact the environment (we know they do), but estimates of
the level of this impact remain still doubtful.
Kerr (2001a, b) believes that information contained in IPCC (2001) substantially
diminishes any uncertainties in detecting the `ànthropogenic signal'' in climate,
emphasizes the anthropogenic origin of global climate change, and does not
narrowÐbut broadensÐthe interval of uncertainties of climate predictions. Accord-
ing to IPCC (2001), most of the warming observed during the last 50 years has been
determined (with a probability between 66% and 90%) by increasing concentrations

of GHGs. Such vagueness in formulation, also characteristic of IPCC (2007), is an
apparent re¯ection of the level of uncertainties of numerical climate-modeling results.
For instance, as follows from model results obtained by Barnett et al. (2001),
detection of an anthropogenic signal depends much on our knowledge about heat
processes in the top 30 m layer of the World Ocean and on the reliability of prescribed
scenarios of future climate change.
Soros (2000) pointed out that CO2 emissions in the U.S.A. constitute about 16%
compared with the 1990 level, 6% in the European Union, about 5% in Japan, and
about 24% in Australia. Thus, the 1990s were not characterized by stabilizationÐbut
increaseÐof the level of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Moreover, there are no
indications that any serious eorts are being made to reduce emissions (the decrease
in CO2 emissions observed in Germany and the U.K. has nothing to do with KP
recommendations). Soros (2000) further pointed out correctly the loss of con®dence
in KP and the apparent absence of prospects for its ®nal rati®cation. Nevertheless,
Australia has recently signed up to KP.
Tol (2000) justly noted,
`` . . . we should not be mistaken about the statement that the world without fossil
fuels would be a paradise. Though renewable sources of energy look attractive on
small scales, large-scale perspectives are not clear. For instance, now the limits of
hydro-energy and limited possibilities of wind-energy are clear.''
All this re¯ects the truth that it is necessary to ®nd ways for civilization to develop
and to substantiate an ecological policy that lives in harmony with the NSS. The
solution of this problem will require unprecedented co-operative eorts between
experts from the ®elds of environmental science and social science.
7.2.2 Natural ecodynamics and biogeochemical cycles

The present means of observing natural±anthropogenic processes from space and
the use of various ground-based information systems throws up a great deal of
information about the state of various NSS components. This information is used
by national and international organizations to evaluate the current state of the
environment when making decisions on realization of anthropogenic projects and
predicting consequences for the environment. Unfortunately, so far, conditions
for optimal decision-making have not been formed, since there is no scienti®cally
substantiated co-ordination between environmental changes and the dynamics of
anthropogenic processes. Nevertheless, all Earth-observing systems have the aim
of getting data on global environmental changes, with emphasis on some subject-
oriented problems:
. Evaluation of the distribution of atmospheric carbon sinks into biospheric

reservoirs.
. The state of forests, processes of deforestation and aorestation.

. Deserti®cation and changes in the structure of land covers.
. The state of water resources, distribution of freshwater supplies and the state of
components of the global water balance.
. Intensity and spatiotemporal characteristics of dangerous natural events.
. SAT variations and climatic trends.
. Change in atmospheric gas composition.
. Interaction between the World Ocean, atmosphere, and land.
This enumeration of the paramount problems facing global ecodynamics in

various environmental monitoring programs is interpreted, as a rule, from stereo-
typical positions regarding global change. However, there is general agreement that
the atmosphere±hydrosphere±lithosphere±cryosphere±biosphere (AHLCB) global
system is extremely complicated and characterized by numerous feedbacks between
its components. Therefore, when collecting data on individual components, it is
necessary to take into account their environment, which controls energy ¯uxes
and forms the conditions under which each component of the environment, both
natural and anthropogenic, functions.
In most cases, analysis of observational data is reduced to considering three
categories of information:
(1) SAT variations during the last century and a half (and especially during the last
20±30 years, when the most signi®cant increase of global mean annual SAT was
observed).
(2) Changes in the Earth's cover structure.
(3) Paleoclimatic changes.
The latter attract attention because they can be compared with present climate
trends and, to some extent, can be used as analog of possible climate change in the
future. Such attempts are ongoing, though the incorrectness of paleo-analogs for
prediction of future climate has been substantiated repeatedly and convincingly.
Other characteristics of the environment are reduced (somehow or other) to
characteristics of climate.
By de®nition, climate is characterized by estimates of meteorological parameters
averaged over a time period of 30 years. For instance, climate anomalies for the 1990s
are de®ned as the deviation from averages for the period 1961±1990. Nevertheless,
analysis of the spatiotemporal climate variability for individual years is widely
practiced. In particular, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) publishes
annual summaries of global climate (Yan and Torres, 2007).
The 1990s were, on the whole, the warmest decade since meteorological observa-
tions began (1860), and 1999 was ®fth according to anomalies in global mean annual
SAT (0.33 C) over the period 1860±1999 (the average anomalies of SAT in the
Northern and Southern Hemispheres were 0.45 C and 0.2 C, respectively). At the
same time, the global mean SAT in October 1999 was 0.2 C below the average for the
period 1979±1999. Trends in annual mean temperature anomalies for the globe show
relatively stable temperatures from the beginning of the record through about 1910,
with a relatively rapid and steady warming in the early 1940s followed by another
period of relatively stable temperatures through the mid-1970s. Then another rapid
rise similar to that in the earlier part of the century is observed. The year 1998 was the
warmest in the global mean temperature series to date (0.58 C above the 1961±1990
reference period mean) followed by 2005 (0.48 C above). Jones et al. (1999) report the
1961±1990 reference period means for the globe, Northern Hemisphere, and South-
ern Hemisphere as 14.0 C, 14.6 C, and 13.4 C, respectively. Nine of the ten warmest
years in the series have now occurred in the 10-year period, 1995±2004. The only year
in the last decade not among the warmest is 1996 (replaced in the ``warmest list'' by
1999). The ten warmest years, in descending order, are 1998, 2005, 2003 and 2002
(tie), 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 1999, and 1990. A linear regression model applied to
annual anomalies indicates a warming trend of about 0.69 C since the record began
in the mid-19th century.
In 1999 a band of maximum annual mean positive SAT anomalies stretched from
the North American continent eastward across the Atlantic Ocean and the Eurasian
continent toward the equatorial western sector of the Paci®c Ocean. Minimum SAT
anomalies were observed in a broad band of the central and northeastern region of
the Paci®c Ocean (including a decrease of SAT). Analysis of the observational data
revealed the prevalence of positive temperature anomalies in many regions of the
globe. The most vivid anomalous situations include both warming and cooling events
(Scafetta et al., 2004). Here are some aspects of temperature variations in 1999:
(1) A cold wave observed in January led to a SAT decrease in Norway, Sweden, and
some regions of Russia down to levels not observed since the end of the 19th
century.
(2) A temperature decrease in February in Western Europe was followed by
particularly heavy snowfall in the Alps.
(3) SAT dropped to values below the norm in Western Australia, though the extreme
warming observed in early January led to intensive bush ®res.
(4) The March temperature in Iceland reached a minimum for the last 20 years.
(5) In April, heatwaves formed in the northern and central regions of India, and in
July and August in the northeastern and mid-western regions of the U.S.A.
(6) Extremely hot and dry weather was observed in the western Paci®c, and SAT
anomalies in central and northwestern Europe exceeded 5 C.
(7) On the Australian continent the maximum average SAT in November±December
was the lowest since 1950.
(8) The second half of the year in central and southern regions of Africa was colder
than usual; the Sahel region was more cloudy, cold, and moist than in previous
years.
(9) The warming in the U.S.A. through the last 50 years was weaker than over the
rest of the globe, with a weak cooling in the eastern part of the U.S.A.
The decrease in land and ocean temperature in the tropics in 1999 was caused by
a La NinÄa event (a cold version of an El NinÄo), which continued for the whole year.
This year was characterized by destructive meteorological disasters, especially ¯oods.

In Australia, the U.S.A., and Asia there were many tropical storms, in Europe heavy
snowfall, avalanches, and storms, and again in the U.S.A. droughts and tornados.
Analysis of the observed SAT data suggests that since 1850 there has been an
irregular but substantial trend in climate warming over the globe. This trend was very
weak from the mid-19th century until 1910, and then it increased to 0.1 C/10 years.
Two long-term episodes of cooling were separated by an interval of weak cooling,
especially in the Northern Hemisphere. In the periods 1951±1960 until 1981±1990
the sign of the interhemispherical temperature dierence changed: the Northern
Hemisphere became colder than the Southern Hemisphere.
The present global warming is considered by some specialists to be connected
with sudden changes in the Paci®c Ocean in about 1976 or with a gradual warming in
the tropical Paci®c combined with other regional-scale events (Table 7.6). The
presence of such patterns has been well established and mainly ascribed to instability
in the atmosphere±ocean system in the tropical Paci®c. Periodicities of about 4±6
years and 2±3 years have been detected connected with the ENSO event. It is dicult
to detect any regularities in decadal and interdecadal variability because of the
insuciently long series of observations. Nevertheless, additional observations of
SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean have made it possible to detect the following
patterns:
. a gradual increase in SST in both hemispheres in 1910±1940, with its subsequent

increase in the Northern Hemisphere until the mid-1950s, but a lower SST in the
Southern Hemisphere;
. a cooling in the NH ocean in 1960±1970 with an SST increase in the Southern
Hemisphere, which determined a change in sign of the interhemispherical SST
contrast in the early 1970s; and
. ®nally, an SST increase in both hemispheres in the 1980s with a small weakening
of this trend in recent years.
The insucient length of the series of instrumental observations means we

cannot interpret such global patterns as a manifestation of a more or less monotonic
SST increase or as a part of long-term secular oscillations. Indirect data show
oscillations with periods from 65 to 500 years. Possible external factors in¯uencing
variability include an increase in CO2 concentration, change in extra-atmospheric
insolation, and volcanic eruptions. A new and surprising result was detection of the
fact that one event of large-scale warming and cooling was preceded by a similar SST
variability near the southern end of Greenland and (soon after this) in the central
Paci®c in the Northern Hemisphere. This re¯ects the important role of high-latitude
processes in the northern Atlantic and possible interaction (through the atmosphere)
with the Paci®c Ocean.
On variability timescales of 7±12 years (approximately decadal) no regular
oscillations coherent globally have been detected. In the northern Atlantic, 13 to
15-year and 90-year oscillations have been manifested. Near Cape Hatteras, inter-
decadal oscillations have propagated along the Gulf Stream to the northern Atlantic
Table 7.6. Regional temperature change, 1901±1996. From Karl (1998).
Region Area Mean Region Area Mean

of tem- of tem-
Earth perature Earth perature
change change
(%) ( C) (%) ( C)
Spitzbergen 0.01 4.06 Alaska/W. Yukon 0.33 0.12
Canada minus 1.02 0.96 North Atlantic 1.93 0.11

W. Yukon
Western Europe 1.84 0.51 Southeast U.S.A. 0.35 0.37
West Siberia/Russia 2.17 1.19 Southwest China/Tibet 0.82 0.44
East Siberia 1.50 1.30 Nigeria 0.29 0.43
North Paci®c 1.42 +0.90 Bolivia 0.28 0.46
Japan environs 1.06 1.12 Tananarive 0.06 0.61
Sea Route, N. America± 1.90 0.65 Arabian Sea/ 3.28 0.53

Auckland Bay of Bengal
Mexico 0.61 0.72 Tasman Sea 0.52 0.38
Caribbean 0.62 0.48 Madagascar environs 1.03 0.64
India 0.82 0.45 South Africa 0.55 0.76
Middle East 0.80 0.46 Chile/Argentina 0.87 0.67
East China 0.50 0.42 Peru/Ecuador/ 0.66 0.69

Colombia
Southeast Asia 2.03 0.48 Northeast Atlantic 0.69 0.64
Southwest Atlantic 1.38 0.75 New Zealand 0.19 0.71
Southeast Atlantic 1.23 0.84 Timbuktu 0.06 1.38
South Georgia 0.01 1.91 Middle Atlantic 4.40 0.44
East Australia 1.44 0.64 Continental U.S.A. 1.67 0.41
Capetown to Australia 2.34 0.92

where their phases changed (earlier similar results were rather contradictory). In the
search for interdecadal ENSO oscillations the data considered did not reveal any
substantial maximum of SST variability with periods of more than 10 years either in
the Paci®c Ocean or over the whole World Ocean, but in the Indian Ocean 20-year
oscillations of SST were detected, which turned out to be particularly regular during
the ®rst half of the 20th century (similar oscillations were observed earlier).
Analysis of 7 to 8-year oscillations revealed a contrast in their phases in the
subtropical and sub-polar cycles of the northern Atlantic. Three prevailing periods
have been recorded for interannual variability (2±6 years): 24±30 months, 40 months,
and 60±65 months. The ®rst of these periodicities is the well-known quasi-2-year
component of ENSO which manifests itself most strongly in the tropics of the western
sector of the Paci®c, with anomalies (of a constant sign) propagating along the
western coast of North and South America (in other oceans this variability is
negligibly small).
An important new result is the detection of two distinctly dierent low-frequency
modes of oscillation having a general physical nature and characterized by a rather
abrupt change of periodicity in the 1960s from about 5 years to almost 4 years. This
totality of observational data suggests that the ENSO irregularity occurs due to the
interaction with annual change of the internal instability of the atmosphere±ocean
system in the tropics of the Paci®c. Since the mode of quasi-2-year oscillations is also
observed in other oceans, but does not correlate with the index of southern oscilla-
tions in the tropical Paci®c, the conclusion suggests itself that the stronger quasi-4-
year signal that forms here can have an eect beyond the Paci®c, whereas the opposite
process is practically impossible.
A weak oscillation with periods of about 28±30 months is observed in the SST
®eld in the SH Atlantic Ocean and agrees with the previously detected `Èrminito''
event which is possibly an analog of El NinÄo. Analysis of the data of SST satellite
observations since 1982 revealed warming over most of the tropics and in the NH
mid-latitudes with a global mean trend of 0.005 C/yr. On the whole, during the
last 50 years of the 20th century (1948±1998) there was substantial warming of the
World Ocean. The upper 300 m layer was heated most (by 0.31 C, on average),
whereas the increase in temperature of the 3 km layer constituted 0.06 C. This
increase of the ocean's upper-layer temperature took place before the SAT increase
started in 1970.
Data on the change of global mean temperature for the last ®ve centuries has
shown that global warming constituted about 1.0 K. It was only in the 20th century,
which turned out to be the warmest, that the increase in continental surface tem-
perature reached 0.5 K (about 80% of climate warming occurred in the 19th and
20th centuries). In the last ®ve centuries warming was stronger in the Northern
Hemisphere (1.1 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.8 K). On the whole, the
results agree with conclusions from data on tree rings, though the latter reveal a
somewhat weaker secular trend of SAT, which can be explained by speci®c features of
dendroclimatic methods. Paleo-information on SAT is mainly based on oxygen
isotope data from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and temperature measured in
deep drill holes.
Satellite data on sea ice cover extent are important as an indicator of global
climate dynamics. Numerous studies revealed a statistically substantial decrease in
the global area of sea ice constituting ( 0.01 0.003) 10 6 km 2 /10 years. Satellite
data on changes in the Greenland glacier mass balance can also serve as an indicator
of climate dynamics. Results of laser altimetry for northern Greenland for the period
1994±1999 show that at altitudes above 2 km the ice sheet is, on the whole, in a state
of balance, with local changes of dierent signs. A decrease in glacier thickness
prevailed at low altitudes, exceeding 1 m yr 1 , enough to raise the level of the
World Ocean by 0.13 mm yr 1 (this is equivalent to 7% of the observed rise in
ocean level).
The Arctic region as a whole plays a key role in observations of environmental
change. The Arctic includes the Arctic Ocean (which overlies the North Pole) and
parts of Canada, Greenland (a territory of Denmark), Russia, the United States
(Alaska), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. Several international programs
have recently started to study the role played by the Arctic region in observed
environmental changes in other regions of the globe. Among them is the SEARCH
(Study of Environmental Arctic Change) project, which is an inter-agency eort to
understand the nature, extent, and future development of system-scale change
presently seen in the Arctic. Other programs include the
. International Arctic Polynya Program (IAPP), which was designed in 1990 to

determine the physical, chemical, and biological role of polynyas in the Arctic.
Three polynyas were selected for investigation and intercomparison: the North
East Water (NEW) polynya (which lies northeast of Greenland), the North
Water (NOW) polynya which forms at the north end of Ban Bay, and the
St. Lawrence Island Polynya (SLIP) in the northeastern Paci®c.
. Canadian Arctic Shelf Ecosystem Study (CASES), which is an international
eort under Canadian leadership to understand the biogeochemical and eco-
logical consequences of sea ice variability and change on the Mackenzie Shelf in
the Beaufort Sea (Arctic Ocean).
. International Arctic Ozone Study, which runs campaigns in winter every year.
NASA researchers and many scientists from the U.S.A., the E.U., Canada,
Iceland, Japan, Norway, Poland, Russia, and Switzerland work together in
winter to measure ozone and other atmospheric gases. The scientists use aircraft,
large and small balloons, ground-based instruments, and satellites.
. International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), which is designed as a long-term
international, interdisciplinary, pan-Arctic program to document changes in the
Arctic. The objectives of ISAC are to take a system approach to facilitate
expansion and to extend our knowledge of the Arctic system as well as to
document changes in the Arctic with respect to spatiotemporal patterns.
. International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), which is aimed at maintaining a
network of drifting buoys in the Arctic Ocean to provide meteorological and
oceanographic data for real-time operational requirements and research pur-
poses including support to the World Climate Research Program (WCRP)
and the World Weather Watch (WWW) program.
The main goals of these programs are resolution of two problems.
(i) Assessment and synthesis of knowledge about how climate and UV radiation
have changed in the Arctic, their prediction for the future, as well as probable
impacts of these changes on ecodynamics in other latitudes; human health; and
social, cultural, and economic systems.
(ii) Provision of useful information and recommendations for governments, organ-
izations, and Joe Public in order to assist decision-making in response to the
consequences of climate change.
The present warming in the Arctic and concomitant increased temperatures

results in ice melting, decrease in its thickness and extent, permafrost melting, and
sea level rise. In the last 30 years there has been a 10% decrease in sea ice extent in the
Arctic, and the rate of this decrease in the last 20 years was 20% higher than for the
entire 30 years. The amount of Arctic land ice is 3.1 million km 2 , which is equivalent
to an 8 m rise in sea level (were it to melt). The rate at which Greenland ice has melted
in the last 20 years is 0.7%/year, and for the period 1979±2004 it is estimated at
15.9%. The ice of the Arctic and Antarctic is a powerful stabilizing factor, since with
all ice supplies taken into account (28 10 6 km 2 ), serious climate change can only
occur on a timescale of centuries. For instance, even with a rise in Arctic temperature
of 3 C the whole ice sheet of Greenland would take 1,000 years to melt. On the
whole, ice supplies on the planet and climate are interactive components of global
ecodynamics.
Recently close attention has been given to assessment of climate in Siberia and the
Far East as regions adjacent to the Arctic. Here a 0.5 ±0.9 C increase of temperature
in the last decade was observed, the trends of average temperatures increasing from
north to south. Precipitation was redistributed, with an increase in winter and a
negligible decrease in some regions in summer. For instance, in the Amur River basin
over the last 30 years precipitation in the cold period of the year increased by 35%,
and annual precipitation increased by 12.3%.
Water is a key component of ecosystems. Observations of moisture cycle
parameters have shown a considerable increase in precipitation rate since 1950. In
the last 30 years there was a considerable increase of the number of days with
intensive precipitation. The present state of global water resources is characterized
by the following factors:
. The global volume of water constitutes 1.4 billion km 3 .

. The volume of freshwater resources is 35 million km 3 , or 2.5% of total water
volume.
. Of these freshwater resources about 24 million km 3 or 68.9% are in the form of
ice or persistent snow cover in mountains, the Antarctic, and the Arctic.
. About 8 million km 3 or 30.8% are under ground in the form of ground water (in
shallow and deep basins at depths of 2,000 m), soil moisture, marsh water, and
permafrost.
. Freshwater lakes and rivers contain 105,000 km 3 or 0.3% of global freshwater

supplies.
. The total volume of freshwater supplies used by ecosystems and people
constitutes 200,000 km 3 (i.e., less than 1% of total freshwater supplies).
. The annual draw-o of ground water is estimated at 600 km 3 ±700 km 3 or about
20% of global water draw-o. About 1.5 billion people use ground water as
drinking water.
. According to estimates for 2000, agriculture takes up 70% of the global
expenditure of freshwater.
. Per capita use of water in developed countries is about 10 times greater than in
developing countries. In developed countries this estimate varies between
500 L/da and 800 L/da, and in developing countries from 60 L/da to 150 L/da.
. Industry uses about 20% of global freshwater draw-o. From 57% to 69% of
global water draw-o is used in power generation at hydroelectric power stations
and nuclear stations, 30%±40% in industrial processes, and 0.5%±3% in thermal
energy.
These along with other data about various parameters of the environment
cannot be considered suciently complete to resolve the many problems of global
ecodynamics studies, since they were not gathered with solution of these problems in
mind. The natural anomalies observed in the last decade characterized by fewer
cold periods, intensi®ed wind speed in tropical cyclones, and other abrupt deviations
from average trends of temperature and precipitation, cannot be formally explained.
The reason is that available data are either super¯uous regionally or inadequate
globally.
A good example of the lack of co-ordination of information at both regional and
global levels manifests itself in the evaluation of vegetation cover dynamics. Indeed,
one of the principal aspects of global ecodynamics consists in assessing the response
of vegetation communities to climate change. Unfortunately, we do not know
whether reversibility between climate change and vegetation exists stably, though
in fact it is observed in some regions. For instance, the northeast of Brazil is
characterized by a semi-desert climate. The dry season lasts for 8 months and
prevents moist tropical forests from developing (they cannot survive without rain
for longer than 4 months). This threshold is, in a sense, the controlling factor of
relationships between climate and vegetation in a given region. On the whole, primary
production is known to react to climate changes. For instance, coniferous forests in
the southeast of the U.S.A. are characterized by a 5-day variability in primary
production of 0.55 gC m 2 da 1 . This variability for conifers decreases in northern
latitudes. In contrast, for broad-leaved forests, their sensitivity to climate change
grows from south to north.
International programs on environmental studies pay special attention to
tropical forests, which are found in more than 70 countries. These forests support
50% to 90% of all species of animals and plants. They are directly linked with the
livelihoods of more than half a billion people. Tropical forests are prime candidates
for intensive transformation into other types of Earth cover. For instance, in
Cameroon between 1991 and 2001 tropical forests were being transformed into palm
oil plantations at a rate of 342.8 ha/yr. Of special concern are the Amazon and
Russia's forests, the rate of deforestation of the latter being practically unknown.
At the International Conference on Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Processes in
the North-East Asia Region (NEAR, February 2±5, 2005, held in Harbin) it was
noted that in the Far East (about 36% of which is Russian) the state of forestry with
respect to 1990 has improved (Qi and Gutman, 2005). The forest area increased as a
result of abrupt reduction of cultivated territories. However, on the whole, forest
preservation throughout Russia remains inadequately studied.
With the evaluation of global ecodynamics by means of observations in mind,
interest has recently increased in studies of global processes in the atmosphere and the
World Ocean. One eective indicator of their state is the level of pollution. Atmo-
spheric transparency determines the direction and intensity of heat ¯uxes, and the
ocean's surface purity regulates the exchange of gas and heat with the atmosphere.
Suce it to say that the albedo of the atmosphere±ocean system can change sign
several times depending on pollution of this media. In nature, the processes involved
in degassing the planet are known to regulate this albedo variability. Human inter-
ference leads to destabilization of the natural equilibrium, though huge reserves of
energy and biomass in the World Ocean (directly or through feedbacks) guarantee a
high level of stability, and up to the present the processes of self-puri®cation have
resisted all anthropogenic impacts. Unfortunately, we do not know the limits of the
World Ocean to self-puri®cation.
The interdependency of environmental processes is diverse and has been experi-
mentally studied spatiotemporally, though only a small fraction of processes have
been studied. Analysis of satellite data shows that in recent years natural processes
have changed substantially due to urbanization. Indeed, cities are one of the most
important and vivid phenomena of civilization. From 1970 to 2004, the size of world
urban population increased from 35% to 50.1%. The contribution of developing
countries to this increase was about 90%. On the whole, the level of urbanization in
the early 21st century was: North America 77.2%, Latin America 75.3%, Europe
74.8%, Oceania and Australia 70.2%, Africa 37.9%, and Asia 36.7%. In 2004,
3.3 billion people lived in cities.
In urban areas the pattern of distribution of aerosol forcing on climate changes
drastically, and due to the high concentration of aerosol the process of cloud for-
mation changes, which breaks natural levels in the atmosphere±surface system's
albedo.
Thus, the wealth of knowledge about the dynamics of the environment suggests
the conclusion that the observed trend should be a cause of anxiety for people.
Present global changes dier from similar changes in the past by the presence of
anthropogenic noise, whose impact manifests itself mainly with negative conse-
quences for nature. It was with this in mind that in 2003 preparation of the 10-year
Strategic Plan of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program was completed.
The program has ®ve major goals:
(1) Using current knowledge of the present and past climate and environment,
including natural variability, to improve our understanding of the causes of
observed climate change.
(2) Obtaining more reliable quantitative estimates of the factors that determine
changes in the Earth's climate and the systems concerned.
(3) Reducing the level of uncertainty of prognostic estimates of future changes in
climate and the systems concerned.
(4) Getting a better understanding of the sensitivity and malleability of natural and
regulated ecosystems as well as anthropogenic systems to climate and global
change in general.
(5) Analyzing the possibilities of using and recognizing the limits of improving
knowledge on risk control in the context of the problem of climate change.
Realization of these goals will require revision of the environmental monitoring

strategy and creation of new systems to observe natural and anthropogenic processes.
The present science in the ®eld of the global ecodynamics still lacks the necessary
technologies to reach the goals mentioned above. A promising ®rst step of the
international community in this direction is the signing by 60 countries of the
agreement on combining national Earth-observing systems into a single global
information network (GEO, 2005).
7.3 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES
7.3.1 Regional climate and its prediction

As mentioned above, the dominating anthropogenic concept of global climate change
is based on information about the secular change in annual mean global SAT
calculated from the ground-based network of meteorological stations and ship
observations of water temperature in the upper layer of the World Ocean as well
as numerical modeling of SAT variations during the last century and a half.
Meanwhile, there is little doubt that global mean SAT needs further analysis, as
SAT values calculated from observational data are not only riddled with errors that
cannot be estimated reliably, they are also just not representative enough. On the
other hand, it is apparent that forming a reliable idea of the pattern of climate
variability can only be obtained by considering 3-D ®elds of air temperature and
other climatic parameters (i.e., by analyzing regional-scale variability of climate).
Information on regional climate change is both diverse and voluminous. We will
con®ne ourselves to a few of the most typical illustrations based mainly on the report
prepared by National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) (Levinson and Waple, 2004),
which characterizes speci®c features of climate in various regions of the globe in 2003
against a background of long-term climatic variability.
Sec. 7.3] 7.3 Global climate change studies 465
One of the important features of climate formation not only at the regional but
also at the global scale consists in its considerable variability caused by the internal
dynamics of the climate system. One of the most substantial factors of internal
dynamics is the ENSO event. Warming as a result of ENSO began in October±
November 2002 and ended in March±April 2003. However, despite ENSO ending
in the boreal spring, ENSO-induced warming brought about regional anomalies of
precipitation over a vast region of the Paci®c, including formation of a zone of
abnormal moistening along the western coast of South America and a moisture
de®cit zone in the eastern part of Australia and in the southwestern sector of the
Paci®c Ocean. The global mean SAT in 2003 turned out to be close to the three
maximum values observed since 1880, but below the record SAT level in 1998.
The global mean SAT in 2003 exceeded the average for 1961±1990 by 0.46 C.
According to data from satellite thermal sensing, the global mean temperature of the
middle troposphere in 2003 was one-third that of average warming for 1979±1998.
The hurricane season in 2003 was extremely active in the basin of the Atlantic
Ocean with sixteen tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three super-hurricanes.
Five of these tropical cyclones led to landslides in the northeast of Mexico. In 2003,
destructive hurricanes devastated New Scotland and Bermuda. The formation of ®ve
tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be a speci®c feature of a region in
the Atlantic Ocean. Three tropical storms formed outside the usual time interval
(June±November), one formed in April, and two in December. In the eastern sector
of the Paci®c Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, the activity of storm formation was
below usual (there were no large-scale storms here at all).
The summer of 2003 witnessed in some regions of Western Europe one of the
warmest summer seasons with heatwaves aecting mainly central and Western
Europe. Two anomalous heatwaves in June and July±August (particularly the second
one) were especially powerful. The accompanying droughts led to forest ®res, which
covered considerable areas in the south of France and in Portugal in July and August.
The 2003 summer in Western Europe was, apparently, the hottest since 1840. The
heatwave in France killed more than 11,000 people (Pirard et al., 2005). In Germany
the summer of 2003 was the hottest in the 20th century and (except for some regions
of northern and northwestern Germany) the warmest since instrumental observations
began).
The most anomalous situations occurring in March 2003 include
. Record-breaking intensive precipitation in the middle Atlantic, and in the

southeast and along the eastern coast of the U.S.A.
. Record-breaking low SAT and unusual snowfall over the European territory of
Russia.
. An unprecedented 546 tornados in May in the U.S.A.
. A long-term drought in the west of the U.S.A., where in some regions it was the
fourth or ®fth year experiencing a lack of precipitation.
. Heavy bush ®res in the eastern part of Australia in January and powerful forest
®res in the south of California in October.
. Abnormally intensive precipitation in western Africa and in the Sahel.
. A return to the normal level of precipitation in India in the summer monsoon.

. Close to a record-breaking extent of the ozone hole in the Antarctic, reaching a
maximum (28.2 million km 2 ) in September 2003.
The world is warming, but that does not mean it will get hotter everywhere. As a
result of climate change, some places are expected to get colder, others wetter or drier.
Warmer-than-average conditions occurred throughout most land areas of the world
in 2005. The largest anomalies were widespread throughout high-latitude regions of
the Northern Hemisphere, which include much of Russia, Scandinavia, Canada, and
Alaska. Temperatures in these regions were 3 C±5 C (5.4 F±9.0 F) above the 1961±
1990 average. There were no vast areas of negative anomalies. Notable temperature
extremes in 2005 include a severe heatwave that enveloped the southwestern U.S.A in
early to mid-July. Maximum temperatures above 40 C (104 F) aected parts of
Nevada, California, Arizona, and southern Utah. Numerous temperature records
were set around the region. Las Vegas, NV, tied their all-time record-breaking high
temperature of 47.2 C (117 F) on the 19th, equalling the old record set on July 24,
1942. Death Valley witnessed seven consecutive days (July 14±20) with temperatures
equal to or above 51.7 C (125 F). Across Australia, exceptionally warm and dry
weather prevailed during March±May 2005. The Australian mean temperature
during March±May was 1.62 C (2.92 F) above the long-term average, which is the
warmest on record.
Recent years have been marked by growing interest in the study of climate
change in NH and SH high latitudes, which was determined, to a considerable extent,
by the decision to designate 2007±2008 the Third International Polar Year. Basic
conclusions regarding the diagnostics of the Arctic climate stem from analysis of the
spatiotemporal variability of polar climate. Of great interest here are new results from
paleoclimatic analysis of an ice core from the Vostok Station (Kondratyev, 2004a),
which demonstrated the presence of a negative correlation between changes in CO2
concentration in the atmosphere and air temperature. Paleoclimatic developments
are increasingly being used to understand the laws of climate dynamics.
The data on the Antarctic discussed in Levinson and Waple (2004) showed that
the last decade in this region was abnormally cold. From the end of the 1970s to mid-
winter of 1990 the sea ice cover extent around the Antarctic continent was growing.
For an informative analysis of the regional features of climate we can recommend
Filatov (2004), dedicated to studies of the climate of Karelia. An important con-
tribution to studies of regional climate changes has been made by observations of
the climate of cities and by analysis of individual long series of meteorological
observations. A new important step in understanding the data of empirical diagnos-
tics of climate involves both development and application of interactive models of the
climate system as well as an ensemble approach to numerical climate modeling.
7.3.2 Global water balance and sustainable development

Of course, the water cycle is critically important not only in the context of climate
change studies but also (to a greater extent) as the principal means of life support on
Earth. Owing to respective feedbacks the water cycle functions as an integrator of the
various processes taking place in the nature±society system. The following questions
spring to mind:
. What mechanisms and processes are responsible for the formation and vari-
ability of water cycles and to what extent are they aected anthropogenically?
. In what way is the control of interactions between the global water cycle and
other cycles (carbon, energy, etc.) accomplished by feedback processes and how
do these processes change over time?
. What are the uncertainties in predicting annual change and interannual vari-
ability as well as in making long-term projections of various parameters (com-
ponents) of the water cycle and what are the possibilities of reducing the levels of
these uncertainties?
. What are the consequences of water cycle variability on various spatiotemporal
scales for human activity and ecosystems, how can this variability in¯uence
the Earth's system, thus aecting the transport of deposits and biogenes and
aecting biogeochemical cycles?
. What are the possibilities of using information about the global carbon cycle in
decision-making in the ®eld of ecological policy with regard to water resources?
Improvements in methods of calculating shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW)
radiation ¯uxes have favored the much more reliable calculation of radiation ¯uxes
and RF. However, the problem of the in¯uence of cloud cover dynamics is far from
being resolved. An important development in 1990 led to the discovery of systematic
underestimation in earlier calculated values of cloud-absorbed solar radiation by
about 40%, which naturally told on the reliability of numerical climate modeling
results in the context of cloud feedback functioning. Reliability can be raised using
the results of numerical modeling of climatic implications of clouds with processes of
dierent scales taken into account, including direct reproduction of cloud cover
dynamics, especially the powerful convective cloudiness in the tropics. Use of modern
MMF models has given promising results and provided a suciently adequate
reproduction of the diurnal trend of precipitation. Considerable progress has been
achieved resulting in a decrease in uncertainty level from 25% and more to less than
3%, especially by using such remote-sensing means as microwave radiometers
(Chukhlantsev, 2006).
In January 2003, ICESat was launched to obtain information about ice cover,
clouds, and land surface topography (Zwally et al., 2005). ICESat carries the
Geoscience Laser Altimeter System to measure changes in the thickness of ice sheets
in Antarctica and Greenland, which cover 10% of the Earth's land area and contain
77% of the Earth's freshwater. ICESat measures the elevations of clouds and land
while traveling at 17,000 mph from pole to pole and circling the Earth once every 100
minutes. ICESat also gauges the vertical structure of clouds and aerosols in the
atmosphere, maps the topography of land surfaces, and measures the roughness,
re¯ectivity, vegetation heights, snow cover, and sea ice surface characteristics. The
data from this satellite, covering both polar regions, provide information about land
surface topography and vegetation cover, ice sheet dynamics, and characteristics of
the water cycle, aerosol, and clouds. Together with data from Terra and Aqua, much
more comprehensive information will be obtained about the Greenland ice sheet and
interannual variations of the sea ice cover in the Arctic. The data from Aqua give a
higher spatial resolution and more diverse multi-spectral information than have been
obtained earlier. Satellite data supplement the results of aircraft observations.
GRACE was successfully launched in March 2002 to monitor climate and the
Earth's gravity ®eld and has opened up possibilities to obtain global-scale informa-
tion about the spatiotemporal variability of gravity determined by non-uniform
distribution of masses in the Earth's crust. These data make it possible, in particular,
to study the gravity ®eld variability caused by factors like variations of both surface
and deep sea currents, river run-o, and ground water, as well as water exchange
between ice sheets, glaciers, and oceans. Analysis of GRACE data will enable us to
monitor variations of the extent and volume of water contained in inland water
basins (large water reservoirs, lakes, and ground water) as well as changes in the
drifting of warm water zones in the Paci®c Ocean (El NinÄo) and in the dynamics of
tectonic plates. Reproduction of GRACE data by numerical modeling of temporal
variations of the Mississippi River basin water balance was successful. The remote
sensing of water supplies open up prospects for monitoring the dynamics of regional
water balances and, respectively, obtaining (on national and international scales)
ideas on how best to regulate water resources.
Studies demonstrating the presence of close bonds between the water and carbon
cycles and climate have become especially urgent. For instance, it has been shown
that about 60% of carbon land supplies in North America might be connected with
precipitation intensi®cation over the North American continent, though it was
supposed earlier that the main role was played by the joint impact of SAT increase
and ``fertilization'' due to the growth of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. New
studies of chemical airing (see below for de®nition) by considering such factors as
precipitation, river run-o, and water alkalinity have led to the conclusion that the
loss (export) of carbon (from alkalinity data) increases with growing river run-o and
precipitation in the basin of Mississippi River. Chemical airing is the process that
transforms CO2 into dissolved bicarbonate and carbonate, which are then trans-
ported by river run-o into the ocean. River-induced transport of alkaline waters
from land to the ocean turns out to be the main source of seawater alkalinity and thus
a mechanism for regulation of the level of carbonate concentration in the oceans.
It can be of great importance in formation of the global carbon cycle and functioning
of the World Ocean as a zone of carbon sink.
Interesting results have been obtained from studies of the spate of forest ®res
occurring in 1997±1998 due to a drought caused by El NinÄo. According to observa-
tional data and numerical modeling results, carbon emissions to the atmosphere due
to forest ®res have increased by 2.1 0.8 PgC, which constitutes 66 24% with
respect to the observed anomalous increase of CO2 concentration. On the whole,
these results have demonstrated that the interannual temporal variability and
intensity of water and energy cycles is one of the most important factors in carbon
cycle formation. For instance, persistent forest ®res in a region that has been a sink
for a long time can suddenly make that region a source of carbon.
The study of energy and water cycles carried out within the GEWEX program
with regard to the carbon cycle was an important step forward. For example, analysis
of data for the Mississippi River basin into the closedness of cycles has shown that
cycles can be balanced within the error 15%. Meteorological studies into the
causes of precipitation in warm seasons in the southwest of the U.S.A. have shown
that monsoons play a substantial role.
The most important developments in the ®eld of water resource study are
. Accumulation of an integral hydrological database.

. Substantiation of an integral strategy for the global observing system with
emphasis on the water cycle. Accordingly, the ®eld observation experiment
CEOP was set up to carry out frequent observations.
. Preparation and application of new spaceborne remote-sensing equipment to
measure the water content in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. For
example, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) carried by the Aura satellite
launched in 2004.
. The retrospective analysis of all available observational data (especially from
satellites) on the known parameters of water and energy cycles (with priority
given to long-term global data on precipitation).
. Re-analysis of regional data on climate dynamics for the period 1979±2003.
. Launchings of satellites CloudSat (Stephens et al., 2002) and CALIPSO
(Vaughan et al., 2004) to obtain data on aerosol and cloud cover characteristics.
CloudSat was a joint initiative between the U.S.A. and Canada, and CALIPSO
between the U.S.A. and France.
. Global monitoring of precipitation using the GPM satellite with a complex of
instruments to substitute those carried by TRMM and SSM/I.
. Cloud climatic feedback (with emphasis on convective clouds in the tropics).
. The impact of changes in temperature and hydrological characteristics on con-
centrations of pollutants and pathogens in the atmosphere near the Earth surface
and in ground waters. The principal motivation here was the urgency of checking
drinking water quality.
. The monitoring of soil moisture as part of a study into drought.
. Prediction of climate in the interests of solving problems about water resource
control.
CALIPSO combines an active lidar instrument with passive infrared and visible
imagers to probe the vertical structure and properties of thin clouds and aerosols over
the globe. CALIPSO was launched on April 28, 2006 with the cloud-pro®ling radar
system on the CloudSat satellite. The CALIPSO-CloudSat Validation Experiment
(CC-Vex) was conducted over the southeastern U.S.A. and adjacent waters from July
26 to August 14, 2006. Two aircraft, based at Robins AFB in the middle of Georgia,
were involved in the experiment: the NASA ER-2 carrying a cloud radar (CRS), lidar
(CPL), and MODIS airborne simulator (MAS), and the Weather Modi®cation Inc.
(WMI) Learjet carrying various cloud probes for in situ sampling. A third aircraft,
the NASA King Air B200, carrying a high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL) was
based at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. A total of 12 ¯ights were

conducted during CloudSat/CALIPSO satellite overpasses, including 4 night ¯ights,
observing a variety of thin and thick cirrus, mid-level clouds, precipitating clouds,
and aerosols.
GPM is an international co-operative constellation of precipitation-measuring
satellites designed to measure the global 4-D variability of rainfall, latent heating,
and the microphysics of variability. This information will be used to improve the
prediction of climate change, weather, freshwater resources, and severe storms.
GPM will answer the following questions posed by NASA's Earth Science
Enterprise major category of ``How Does Precipitation Impact Our Changing
Earth?'':
. How are global precipitation, evaporation, and cycling of water changing?
. What are the eects of clouds and surface hydrological processes on Earth's
climate?
. How are variations in local weather, precipitation, and water resources related to
global climate variation?
. How can weather forecast duration and reliability be improved by new space-
based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?
. How well can transient climate variations be understood and predicted?
. How well can long-term climatic trends be assessed or predicted?
7.3.3 Globalization of land use strategies

Since land surface processes are one of the main yet inadequately studied climate-
forming factors, the following strategic questions have been posed (CCSP, 2004):
. What means and methods are needed to ®nd more reliable characteristics of both
past and present changes in land surface?
. What are the main factors of the dynamics of land use and processes on land
surface?
. What will land use and land covers be in 5±50 years?
. In what way does climate variability aect land use and the characteristics of land
surface and what are the feedbacks between land surface processes and climate
processes?
. What are the possible consequences of the impact of land surface changes on the
environment, socio-economic development, and human health?
Key developments are along the following lines:
(i) Projections for land use and land surface changes. These projections take into
account, in particular, changes due to deforestation as a result of growing
population size. According to available estimates, more than 70 million acres
of forested territories and agricultural soils in the U.S.A. will be transformed
(mainly into urban regions) in the period to 2025. On the other hand, there is the
possibility of transforming agricultural and other soils into forested territories.
This illustrates the complexity of carbon budget dynamics and the dif®culty of
creating a new NLCD database to characterize the present state of land surface
(mainly from satellite data).
(ii) Land use in the Amazon. Special attention to the ecodynamics of this region has
been determined by location here of swaths of felled tropical forest. A U.N.
program is planned to evaluate global tropical forest dynamics using space-
derived information.
Developments in the near future will be along the following lines:
. assessment of agricultural soils on a global scale;

. preparation of a new (more detailed) map of forest biomass resources for the
whole territory of Russia from Landsat data (at a spectral resolution of 500 m)
and Terra data (250 m) combined with the results of a land inventory, which will
make it possible to reliably assess the role of Russian forests as a carbon
reservoir;
. accumulation of a database on changes in Alaska's land surface in 1950±2001
(averaged over the year using satellite data at a resolution of 1 km) to character-
ize its succession;
. projection of land use changes and their eect on forests;
. complex studies of regional climate with emphasis on the land surface processes
connected with changes in hydrological conditions in the southeast of the U.S.A.
and subsequent evolution of such developments under tropical conditions;
. impacts of urbanization on ecosystem dynamics in semi-arid regions of the
U.S.A., bearing in mind the need to ®nd a solution to the problems of water
resources and carbon budget.
A climate-induced increase in land ecosystem productivity can be observed.

Analysis of data on climate for the period 1982±1999 and results of the satellite
remote sensing of net primary production (NPP) during the same period revealed
a global mean increase in primary production on land of 6.3% (or by 3.4 PgC) with a
considerable spatial non-uniformity manifested as a considerable increase of NPP
over 25% of the territory and a substantial decrease in productive land of 7%. The
contribution to NPP growth of 80% is due to ecosystems in tropical regions and in
high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Apparently, an increase of NPP in the
tropics is connected with a decrease of cloud amount, which intensi®es incoming
solar radiation, and in other regions with the complex impact of SAT changes,
precipitation, and solar radiation.
Analysis of data on the carbon budget within the WCRP studies of GHG
removal from the atmosphere in national parks in 13 states of the U.S.A. yielded
interesting results (Kondratyev and Krapivin, 2005). According to these data, in these
parks the amount of carbon accumulated in the top 20 cm layer of soil constituted
910 kg ha 1 yr 1 . Hence, over the whole territory of the program (5.6 million ha) the
atmosphere was loosing annually 5.1 million tC.
7.3.4 Global carbon cycle as an indicator of climate change

Considering the detailed discussion of these problems in Kondratyev et al. (2003b,
2004a) and Kondratyev and Krapivin (2004a, b), we will con®ne ourselves to enu-
merating the key questions to be addressed within the CCSP (CCSP, 2004):
. Can we identify the speci®c features involved in spatiotemporal variability of

sources and sinks of carbon over North America on timescales from seasonal to
secular, and what are the processes that aect carbon cycle dynamics the most?
. Can we identify the respective features of variability and the factors determining
them as regards ocean components (sources and sinks) of carbon cycle?
. What is the impact of land surface processes (land use included) at local,
regional, and global scales on the formation of carbon sources and sinks in
the present? What was it in the past and what is it likely to be in the future?
. What is the variability of carbon sources and sinks on land, in the ocean, and in
the atmosphere on timescales from seasonal to secular and in what way can the
respective information be used to get a better understanding of the laws of global
carbon cycle formation?
. What are the likely future changes in concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane,
and other carbon-containing GHGs in the atmosphere as well as changes in the
sources and sinks of carbon on land and in the ocean?
. What will the response of the Earth's system and its components be to various
strategies proposed to regulate the carbon content in the environment? Do we
know enough to answer this question?
The key problems facing studies are given in the following sections.
7.3.4.1 Present trends of GHG content in the atmosphere

Analysis of the data of observations at 50 stations of the global network since the late
1970s revealed a continuous increase in the atmosphere of CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, and other
GHGs with the relative increase of CO2 and N2 O being almost the same, whereas the
increase of CH4 substantially slowed down and almost ceased. As for contributions
to the formation of RF, in the case of CO2 it exceeded 60%, and for CH4 it was below
20%. The rate of CO2 increase averaged over the past few decades constituted about
1.5 ppm/yr with a strong interannual variability. Consideration of NEE observation
results (i.e., CO2 exchange between land and atmosphere ecosystems) over the U.S.A.
within the AmeriFlux program (Hargrove et al., 2003) showed in this case an
assimilation of carbon by ecosystems that function as CO2 sinks from the atmo-
sphere. From the data for time intervals within 3±10 years, the annual assimilation of
carbon varied within 2 t ha 1 ±4 t ha 1 for forests and about 1 t ha 1 or less in the case
of crops and grass cover. Also, the AmeriFlux program made it possible to obtain
regular data on micrometeorological and biological observations important for
understanding the processes of carbon cycle formation and its determining biological
factors.
7.3.4.2 Inventory of anthropogenic carbon content in the ocean

Field observational programs, such as the experiment to study circulation in the
ocean and in the atmosphere (WOCE), the joint experiment to study the carbon
cycle in the ocean (JGOFS), the study of ocean±atmosphere carbon exchange
(OACES), have created the basis for obtaining new and more reliable estimates of
the income of anthropogenic CO2 to the World Ocean and CO2 transport in the
ocean. Results for 1991±1998 show that the income of anthropogenic carbon totaled
about 117 19 PgC but there was strong spatiotemporal variability. Especially strong
contrasts were recorded between the northern Atlantic where the presence of anthro-
pogenic CO2 was traced to the ocean bottom, and the Paci®c tropics where CO2 was
absent at depths below 600 m. Though CO2 emissions to the atmosphere due to fossil
fuel combustion take place mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, about 60% of
anthropogenic CO2 is concentrated in SH oceans, which is determined by transport
due to the subtropical convergence zone.
7.3.4.3 Speci®cation of carbon budget estimates

There is now the possibility of estimating the carbon budget by using data of satellite
observations of ocean color made with SeaWiFS and MODIS instruments calibrated
by comparing them with observations by the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY)
(Lavender et al., 1998, 2005; Pinkerton et al., 2003). Calibration ensures that errors
in the retrieval of chlorophyll concentration in seawater do not exceed 6%, which
makes it possible to substantially raise the reliability of estimates of primary
production and, hence, of the carbon budget.
To promptly estimate the carbon supply in forests of the U.S.A., a computer
algorithm, called Cole's parallel merge sort algorithm, was developed and used to
specify all available data on the carbon budget inventory (Cole, 1988).
New estimates of carbon dynamics from data of direct (¯uctuating) measure-
ments of the atmosphere±ocean CO2 exchange at two sites of virgin Amazon forest
led to the conclusion that the annual trend of this exchange is opposite to that
obtained earlier. For 7 months of the wet season the forest releases carbon, and
for the 5 months of the dry season the forest serves as a carbon sink. The short
duration of the dry season strongly limits respiration processes (as a result of the
detritus surface drying up) but only weakly aects the process of photosynthesis due
to the presence of sucient moisture in deep layers of the soil. After precipitation
resumes (beginning of the wet season) a large amount of wood debris decays and,
respectively, CO2 enters the atmosphere.
The main goals of studies within the North American Carbon Program (NACP)
and Carbon Cycle and Climate of the Ocean Program include
. regular observations within the NACP at theAmeriFlux and AgriFlux networks,

as well as from masts 500 m high and from oceanic platforms together with
satellite remote sensing;
. expansion of the network of observations from aircraft and high masts (the
number of masts will reach 15) as well as specialized measurements of the
atmosphere±ocean CO2 exchange in the North Atlantic and in the Paci®c
Ocean (Northern Hemisphere and equatorial band) to provide new develop-
ments in the ®eld of numerical modeling with the necessary input information;
. analysis of new satellite data from the EOS system;
. specialized observations of various landscapes, and ship observations of pCO2 in
the NH Atlantic and Paci®c Oceans;
. study of relationships between climate, phytoplankton, carbon, and iron content
in the Antarctic Ocean;
. processing of satellite information on the annual trend and interannual vari-
ability of ocean primary production;
. numerical modeling of the global carbon cycle;
. analysis of the impact of forest ecodynamics on GHG emissions to the
atmosphere;
. continuation of development of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which
after launch in 2008 will collect precise global measurements of carbon dioxide in
the Earth's atmosphere.
7.3.4.4 Control of natural resources to restrain GHG emissions

Regulating land ecosystem dynamics to hold back GHG emissions to the atmosphere
as well as adapting to climate change are feasible using various approaches. For
instance, in the case of forests it is possible to stimulate forests to accumulate carbon
through intensi®ed growth of vegetation by adding fertilizer to the soil. Results of the
8-year ®eld observational experiment at a site of broad-leaved forest in the state of
Tennessee (U.S.A.) demonstrated the impact of precipitation on nutrient cycles and
survivability of young trees, but did not reveal such an impact for big trees, growth of
root systems, or litter decay. On the whole, forests resist precipitation changes, but
changes in hydrological processes can lead to a long-term impact on the species
composition of trees. Another ®eld experiment carried out in Wisconsin showed
the supposed stimulation of growth of an aspen forest as a result of increased
CO2 canceled out by the opposite impact of simultaneous growth of tropospheric
ozone.
The stimulating impact of increased CO2 in the atmosphere on the growth of
crops is well known. However, recent studies have revealed a negative eect of this
trend on harvest. An arti®cial doubling of CO2 concentration over the grass prairies
in the northeast of Colorado (i.e., laboratory experiments) showed that forage
obtained under such conditions is less digestible than that produced with a natural
CO2 concentration. In another experiment, increased CO2 stimulated the growth of
®ve prevalent weed species much more than other plants. Hence, the danger arises of
weed growth with increasing CO2 . According to the data from yet another ®eld
experiment, with a doubling of CO2 about 90% of the leaves of white clover are
eaten by pests. Thus, the impact of CO2 increase on crops is contradictory.
7.3.5 Ecosystem dynamics and change of living conditions

Without repeating ourselves (Kondratyev, 2004a, b; Kondratyev et al., 2004a, b) we
will now pose the key questions:
(i) What are the most important feedbacks (and their quantitative relationship)
between ecosystem dynamics and global changes (mainly, climate)?
(ii) What are the possible consequences of the impact of global changes on
ecosystems?
(iii) What are the possibilities of providing sustainable development of ecosystems
and the respective needs of society in the light of supposed global changes?
To answer these questions, the results of the developments (outlined in the

following sections) supported by the CCSP are of primary importance.
7.3.5.1 The decrease in ocean primary production since the early 1980s
As mentioned above, according to satellite remote sensing since the 1980s, net
primary production has decreased by more than 6%, with 70% of this decrease
falling on high latitudes. During this period the SST in the NH Atlantic and Paci®c
Oceans increased, respectively, by 0.7 C and 0.4 C. However, the decrease of primary
production in the Antarctic Ocean was not connected with climate warming. This
decrease in primary production re¯ected a drop in the carbon sink due to photo-
synthesis weakening in high-latitude oceans. It is still unclear whether these changes
are part of a long-term trend or a response to climate variations on a decadal scale,
like the PDV or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant mode
of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North
America to Europe and farther into northern Asia. The NAO is a large-scale see-saw
in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low, similar to the
SO, which exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several
years (Hurrell et al., 2003; Hurrell and Dickson, 2004; Hurrell, 2005; Stenseth et al.,
2004).
7.3.5.2 Impact of changes in climate regime on marine ecosystems

Climate changes on multi-decadal scales aect both marine and continental eco-
systems, which necessitates the monitoring of such changes to provide measures
set up to regulate ecosystem dynamics with the necessary information. What is
important here is an understanding of the consequences of climate change in the
NH Paci®c region, where in 1998 a warm-to-cold phase shift of PDV took place,
followed by an immediate intensi®cation in the amount of plankton and change in its
species composition as well as a considerable increase in populations of salmon and
other valuable species in the northwestern region of the Paci®c Ocean. In the northern
Atlantic, NAO-associated changes in the amount of zooplankton and ®sh were
observed, especially in the Gulf of Haine. Considering relevant new data, indicators
of ecological changes were developed to ensure a more adequate ecological policy to

regulate ecosystem dynamics.
Data from a large number of species of plants and animals corresponding to a
wide range of natural ecosystems enabled have facilitated detection of changes in
natural habitat and in habitation features (migration, blossoming, egg laying, etc.)
of many species depending of climatic conditions. However, determination of con-
crete cause-and-eect relations is seriously hindered by the multi-factor character of
biological changes. One study that gathered data on more than 1,700 species demon-
strated a considerable poleward shift in the natural habitat averaging 6.1 km/10 years
in intervals from 16 to 132 years. For example, spatiotemporal variability determined
by climatic trends in the 20th century was demonstrated for 279 species. Analysis of
data for 143 species (from mollusks to mammals and from grass to trees) revealed
persistent shifting connected with temperature changes. On the whole, the results
re¯ect the impacts of global climate warming on populations of animals and plants.
7.3.5.3 Interdepartmental comparisons of ecosystem models with observational data

Comparison of 13 models simulating forest ecosystems (with built-in schemes
parameterizing the processes involved and with dierent spatiotemporal resolutions)
with data of ®eld observations in the eastern part of Tennessee showed that no model
prevails across the board. Good `ìnter-model'' agreement is observed in the case of
the water cycle, but considerable dierence is typical of the carbon cycle. Data
averaged over results for all models agree best with observations. Models that
disregard the key components of forest ecosystems or important processes (like root
zone dynamics or soil moisture) were unable to reproduce the response of ecosystems
to a transient drought. The best agreement with observations can be seen in models
that realistically parameterize the key processes determining forest ecosystem
dynamics with a high temporal resolution (of the order of one or several hours).
The prognostic potential of models decreases under drought conditions.
Key developments determined by the CCSP will be along the following lines:
. assessment of the impact of climate in the Arctic (ACIA program) on the

environment, human health (i.e., the shortage of UV solar radiation), economic
infrastructures, etc.;
. analysis of data from ®eld observational experiments to evaluate the impact of
increased atmospheric CO2 on agricultural ecosystems;
. forecast of localization and ecological impact of weeds using both ground and
space-based observational means;
. prediction of forest ®res, assessment of ecological consequences of application of
chemically dangerous agents in forests (this primarily refers to the western
U.S.A.), and carbon accumulation by ecosystems. Here, top priority rests with
the development and application of the MAPSS program, which maps the
atmosphere±vegetation cover±soil system;
. quantitative description of the impact of climate warming on boreal forests on
the basis of observational data and numerical modeling;
. development of the LTEP for long-term monitoring of coastal water ecosystem

dynamics;
. quantitative evaluation of the impact of varying temperature and precipitation
on the development of soil bacteria communities and microfauna in the
biologically active soil layer;
. analysis of possible impacts of climate change on land use and watersheds;
. quantitative estimation of the impact of grazing by domestic animals on the
cycles of carbon and nitrogen from observational data at various meadows;
. developments of forest ecosystem models to analyze the forest dynamics under
conditions of changing climate; and
. quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on ecosystem
production.
7.3.6 Socio-economic aspects of ecosystem dynamics

The key questions to be answered within the CCSP are
. What are the level, interactions, and signi®cance of the human dimension
(i.e., socio-economic factors) in the development of society and its role in global
environmental changes?
. What are the present and possible future impacts of global environment vari-
ability on economic development?
. What factors determine the capability of society to react to occurring changes?
. What possibilities are there to achieve sustainable development and reduce
human sensitivity to forcings?
. What possible methods are there for decision-making in the interests of
sustainable development under conditions of NSS complexity and high-level
uncertainty regarding global environment variability?
. What are the possible impacts of global environmental change on human health?
. What information about ecodynamics and socio-economic factors is needed to
evaluate the respective cumulative risks for human health?
Developments as a consequence of these questions are likely to be along the

following lines:
(1) Regional problems of ecodynamics. What is important here are studies into the
power supply, reconstruction of ecosystems, recovery of human health, and
special phenomena such as droughts and forest ®res at both local and regional
levels. We need to integrate physics, chemistry, and biology (with respective
socio-economic aspects taken into account) to make adequate decisions in eco-
logical policy. Studies of the dependence of forest ®res on climatic conditions can
serve as an illustration of possible approaches to the solution of such problems
(a principal goal is prediction of anthropogenic forest ®res).
(2) Analysis of economic eciency. Quantitative assessment of the economic e-
ciency of one or another ecological policy can only be determined by taking
as many priorities as possible into account. What is important here is the use of
simulation models of ecodynamics, especially models simulating changes in land
supplies of carbon to assess the response of carbon supplies in vegetation and the
soil to speci®c features of land use and changes in land surface characteristics,
to variations in atmospheric CO2 content, and to climate. Solution of such
problems will mean more reliable prediction of global trajectories of CO2
emissions to the atmosphere.
(3) Possible consequences of global climate change for forestry and agriculture over the
U.S.A. Analysis of such changes under various scenarios of possible changes in
global climate suggests that the impact on forestry and agriculture in the U.S.A.
is likely to be economically favorable. This has partly to do with the growth in
forest productivity (as a result of increased CO2 ) and the capability of forests to
adapt to climate change. As for agriculture, according to available prognostic
estimates for the period to 2060, the positive impact of global warming on
agriculture in the U.S.A. will be less economically favorable than previously
thought.
(4) Impact of UV solar radiation on human health. Intensive developments along these
lines are being carried out to study the impact of a lowering level of biologically
active UV solar radiation due to the decreasing total ozone content in the
atmosphere on the development of skin cancer and cataracts.
Planned developments will be along the following lines:
. creation of centers responsible for decision-making under conditions of uncer-

tainties (DMUU) which should remain operational until 2008;
. energy consumption housekeeping (with the U.S.A., China, and Indonesia taken
as exemplars) and its prospects in light of present demographic trends;
. analysis of the eciency of seasonal weather forecasts and prospects for predict-
ing interannual climatic variability;
. substantiation of possibilities to adapt economic activity to climate change;
. prediction of possible rises in sea level and substantiation of respective measures;
. assessment of global change consequences regarding risk and the multitude of
stress factors; and
. climate variability and human health (i.e., shortage of UV solar radiation).
Despite the impressive information content of the U.S. program of climate

studies (CCSP, 2004), it should be mentioned that this program
. Still lacks the systematic character necessary for such a program (principally, the
program lacks a sequential approach to solution of climate problems as an
integral part of global change problems).
. Fails to substantiate a single approach to creating a global observing system. The
ESSP (i.e., the partnership set up for complex study of the Earth's system) does
not resolve such a problem.
. Pays insucient attention to paleoclimatic problems.
Sec. 7.4] 7.4 Present state and prospects for world economic development 479
These three general considerations should be the basis for further program
developments.
7.4 PRESENT STATE AND PROSPECTS FOR WORLD

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
7.4.1 Biogeochemical cycles and energy

As human activities intensify (as a result of continuing growth in population size) the
need arises for further development of energy. Energy production is still based on
using hydrocarbon raw materials, which lead to serious ecological consequences. It is
no mere chance that on the agenda of the G-8 meeting held on July 7±8, 2005 in
Scotland, from two key problems the problem of global climate warming was chosen,
and the next session of the G-8 (St. Petersburg, December 2006, Russia) concentrated
on discussions of energy problems. An important socio-economic aspect of recent
changes is the massive rise in oil and natural gas prices, as well as growing uncer-
tainties in relationships between Russia and the consumers of its energy resources
(Kondratyev and Krapivin, 2006b, c). Energy supply has become key to further
intensi®cation of human activities. The urgency of the situation can be illustrated
by considering a large developing country such as Brazil.
A serious crisis broke out in Brazil in 2001, which resulted in energy consumption
limits being introduced to avoid catastrophic energy blackouts. The main causes of
the crisis were
. Prolonged droughts continuing (in dierent regions) for 6 years (1996±2001),

resulting in a reduction of hydropower production.
. Growing energy consumption.
. Delays in commissioning power stations.
The contribution of hydropower stations to energy production in Brazil in 2002

constituted 85%. Planning a hydropower system foresaw an event of three
successive drought years. However, in April 2001 the volume of water in reservoirs
of hydropower stations constituted only 20%±30% compared with the maximum.
It is this that forced the Brazilian government to seriously limit energy
consumption.
In late 2006 the problem of energy supply to Europe suddenly appeared as a
result of the con¯ict between Russia, on the one hand, and Ukraine and Byelorussia,
on the other, concerning payments for consumed energy and its transport to other
countries across their territories. Lengthy discussions followed on this problem.
For instance, Taro Aso, Head of the Ministry of Foreign Aairs of Japan, called
on European countries to diversify the sources of energy to reduce their dependence
on Russia. In the course of the meeting with his Hungarian counterpart Kinga GoÈncz
he said that while he understood the dependence of many European countries on

Russian oil, it might be worthwhile to think about diversifying delivery as much as
possible. Minister Aso called the position of Russia ``the policy of natural resources'',
stating that Moscow `ùses energy as a weapon''. The Spanish newspaper ABC
noted in its editorial of January 10, 2007 that suspension of energy supply to the
European Union by Russia could become a problem every winter, and while a year
ago it was gas transported across Ukraine, today it is oil transported across Bye-
lorussia. Europe every now and then demonstrates its growing vulnerability and
dependence on external energy sources and, at the same time, its isolation when it
comes to solving energy problems.
Naturally, for energy to become `èco-dependent'' will mean diversifying the
means of production. A complex analysis is needed of the present state and prospects
for future development of energy on a global scale, bearing in mind diversifying the
means of production, instilling the need to be economical in the use of energy, raising
the eciency of energy production, and minimizing negative ecological consequences
(e.g., by transiting from hydrocarbon to pure energy). It is a question of reaching
both nationally and internationally a level of energy production that is ecologically
safe, stable, and meets the growing needs of business. For instance, the U.S.A. is
currently spending about $0.5 billion every day on oil import mainly from the Near
East.
The main problem consists in the inability of market mechanisms to regulate
energy when it comes to its stability and ecological safety, which results in govern-
ments and international organizations getting involved. The discussion of energy
problems is usually limited to analyzing the dynamics of consumer prices of energy
and the crises that arise as a result of shortages of energy resources. For instance, the
price of natural gas varied weakly around $2 per MBTU (million of British thermal
units) during the 1980s, but passed the $4 mark in January 2003. The price of gas in
2007 in various countries ranged from $0.14 in Venezuela to $5.64 in England. The
cost of crude oil went up from $20 per barrel to $40 (July 2004) reaching the current
level (2008) of $94. Note that the Energy Information Administration of the U.S.
Department of Energy forecast the oil price reaching $20 per barrel by 2020. Crude
oil prices behave in the same way as any other commodity with wide price swings at
times of shortage or oversupply. The crude oil price cycle responds to changes in
demand as well as OPEC and non-OPEC supply.
Table 7.7 illustrates the rapid increase of global fossil fuel consumption from
the data of the World Resources Institute for 1950±2003. We shall now consider
more detailed statistical data for dierent kinds of fossil fuel and energy resources
in general, with emphasis on extremely non-uniform distributions of energy
consumption for dierent countries (Table 7.8).
Of course, the fact that the average American spends 10 times more energy
resources than the average Chinese and 20 times more than the average Indian is
well known.
Table 7.7. Global consumption of fossil fuels (million

tons of oil equivalent) 1950 through 2006.
Year Coal Oil Natural gas
1950 1,074.3 470.8 171.9
1960 1,544.2 951.4 416.3
1970 1,553.9 2,254.5 924.7
1980 1,814.1 2,972.7 1,304.8
1990 2,270.5 3,136.1 1,774.2
2000 2,364.3 3,556.2 2,193.2
2001 2,384.8 3,572.6 2,214.1
2002 2,432.2 3,606.6 2,286.3
2003 2,632.8 3,675.3 2,341.8
2004 2,805.5 3,813.7 2,435.3
2005 2,957.0 3,861.3 2,512.2
2006 3,090.1 3,889.8 2,574.9
Table 7.8. The annual energy consumption and CO2 emissions in dierent countries.
Country Commercial Oil Electric power Per capita

energy (barrels per (kW per hour emissions of
(per capita day per per capita) carbon dioxide
consumption in thousand
oil equivalent) people) (t)
U.S.A. 8.1 70.2 12,331 19.7

Japan 4.1 42.0 7,628 9.1
Germany 4.1 32.5 5,963 9.7
Poland 2.4 10.9 2,511 8.1
Brazil 1.1 10.5 1,878 1.8
China 0.9 4.2 827 2.3
India 0.5 2.0 355 1.1
Ethiopia 0.3 0.3 22 0.1
Table 7.9. Current coal consumption (million tons oil equivalent) and future trends.
Region 2006 2010 2020 2030
North America 611.6 639.7 681.3 634.3
South and Central America 21.8 35.4 70.3 54.7
Europe and Eurasia 552.9 510.4 412.8 379.1
Middle East 8.9 8.4 6.6 5.1
Africa 102.8 132.2 121.9 98.5
Asia Paci®c 1,792.1 1,998.6 2,097.4 1,856.3
Total world 3,090.1 3,324.7 3,390.3 3,028.0
European Union 25 305.0 298.4 265.9 243.7
OECD 1,171.5 1,183.1 1,156.5 1,099.6
Former Soviet Union 183.9 207.8 213.6 197.5
Other EMEs* 1,734.7 1,797.4 1,857.2 1,788.8
* EME stands for European and Middle East countries.
7.4.2 Coal and its role in the future of global energy

Despite misgivings about the ecological consequences, coal remains a dominating
source of energy with a level of global consumption of almost 5 Mt in 2001 and future
growth up to 7.6 Mt in 2030. Over 4,970 Mt of hard coal is currently produced, a 78%
increase over the past 25 years. Coal production has grown fastest in Asia, while
Europe has actually seen a decline in production. Table 7.9 illustrates the present and
presumed levels of coal consumption in dierent countries. As can be seen, the
growth in coal consumption is concentrated in three countries: China, India, and
the U.S.A., all of which have large coal supplies. A decline in coal consumption in
Western Europe and in some other regions is mainly connected with the growing role
of natural gas as a source of energy. The same situation can also be observed in the
U.S.A., though high rates of coal consumption continue. This has led, in particular,
to natural gas prices more than doubling since 1999. The prospects for replacing coal
(or natural gas) by renewable energy sources remain still distant. The development
and use of pure technologies (IGCC technologies included) are more likely. IGCC is a
clean coal technology that turns coal into gas, and then removes impurities from the
coal gas before it is burnt. This results in lower emissions of sulfur dioxide, particu-
lates, and mercury. It also results in improved eciency compared with conventional
pulverized coal. IGCC technology oers a number of important environmental

bene®ts:
. IGCC has the best emission characteristics of all coal-based technologies.

. IGCC provides for ecient removal of sulfur compounds, particulates and
mercury before the gas is burned, instead of removing the compounds from
the exhaust gases following combustion.
. Nitrogen oxide (NOx ) emissions are on a par with emissions from a conventional
coal-®red plant equipped with state-of-the-art emission controls.
. Emissions of carbon dioxide are comparable with emissions from a conventional
coal plant. However, should future environmental regulations require the
removal of CO2 , an IGCC plant can separate and sequester CO2 from the process
at a signi®cantly lower cost than conventional technologies.
. The IGCC process requires about one-third less water than a pulverized coal
plant.
. The IGCC process generates less solid waste than a conventional coal plant.
. IGCC plants enjoy greater fuel ¯exibility than conventional coal plants.
. IGCC plants can use various coal types, biomass, and other re®nery byproducts.
7.4.3 Oil and its role in sustainable development

Alhough the transition from hydrocarbon energy to other means of energy produc-
tion is becoming increasingly attractive to governments and business, the fact is that
coal, oil, and natural gas still dominate, and there is little doubt that pressure on the
oil market in coming decades will grow. Just looking at a single statistic illustrates this
inevitability: in China there are currently 8 cars per 1,000 people, whereas in the
U.S.A. there are 780 cars per 1,000 people. Of course, the rapid economic develop-
ment of countries such as China and India with a joint population of about 2.5 billion
people will inevitably increase the need for energy resources. The same refers to the
U.S.A. as well, where the present oil consumption exceeds 20 million barrels per day.
With oil extraction in the U.S.A. proper decreasing as existing deposits run out,
dependence of this country on oil import (mainly from the Middle East) intensi®es.
As a consequence, the U.S.A. is considering introduction of a special oil tax, initially
at a level of $5 per barrel, to stimulate measures for economic use of oil resources.
Plans are also underway to intensify the use of Alaskan oil resources, where it is
possible to raise daily oil extraction up to 1±1.3 million barrels (at present, oil
extraction from Alaska is limited by an ecological ban).
7.4.4 Natural gas and economic growth

Compared with oil (and especially coal), natural gas as an energy carrier and raw
material has several important advantages: reduced environmental pollution in
industry, households, and energy production, where coal has been extensively
replaced by gas. There are also wide possibilities for gas to be used in chemistry.
In the U.S.A. and many other countries, natural gas has become the prevalent energy
carrier, though petrol plays the leading role in transport. As in the case of petrol,
in recent years there have been sudden leaps in natural gas prices, from $2.5/MBTU
in the winter of 2002 to more than $9/MBTU in October 2004, which aected
particularly badly the competitive ability of some branches of chemistry.
The following data give the percentage use of various energy carriers in the
U.S.A. according to estimates for 2005: petrol (40), natural gas (23), coal (23), nuclear
energy (8), renewable energy resources (6). Natural gas use in the U.S.A. can be
further broken down by economic sector (%): industry (32), social sector (23), power
production (23), commercial use (14), and other spheres (8). The global distribution
of the use of gas in dierent regions is illustrated by the following ®gures (%): the
Near East (36), Eastern Europe and the former U.S.S.R. (33), Asia and Oceania (8),
Africa (6), North America (4), Central and South America (4), and Western Europe
(9).
According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, known
global resources of natural gas exceed 70 times annual global consumption, with
established resources increasing annually since 1970 as a result of exploration. The
comparatively small contribution of natural gas as an energy carrier in the U.S.A.
means energy development here will focus on more intensive use of resources from
Alaska (this will require construction of a long and expensive gas pipe) and with
further increase of the import of lique®ed gas. The main problem here is the building
of ports and the related infrastructure for gas distribution.
7.4.5 Nuclear energy: yes or no

Now that the world has recovered from the Chernobyl shock, conditions are ripe for
relatively objective assessment of the present state of and prospects for nuclear
energy, especially in light of its recent successful development. For example, in
France nuclear power stations (NPSs) provide more than 70% of power production,
and two NPSs in Scotland contribute 55% to total U.K. power production. As an
aside, wind energy production in the U.K. constitutes a mere 0.3% of total produc-
tion. Nuclear energy is successfully developing in China, Iran, and other countries as
well. There has also been a gradual increase in the U.S.A., where there have been
discussions about the need to build a new NPS. More than 100 NPSs are in operation
throughout the globe, which provide about 20% of world energy consumption.
Oil (>50%) and natural gas (17%) still lead the ®eld in energy production. In
developing countries, nuclear energy constitutes about 25% of energy production.
The advantages of nuclear energy include its ecological purity (in particular, no
GHG emissions to the atmosphere), abundant supplies of raw materials, and low
running costs, all of which determines lower electricity charges. In the U.S.A., nuclear
power costs 1.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, whereas in the case of thermal power stations
operating on coal and gas it is 2 and 3.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, respectively. Factors
holding back nuclear energy development include the high cost of NPS construction.
For instance, the cost of constructing (which takes 5 years) an NPS with 1,000 MW
capacity can reach $2 billion. This reduces to $1.4 billion if new technologies of coal
transformation to natural gas are used, with the added bene®t of lowering the level of
emissions. Considering the costs of NPS construction, exploitation, and its presumed
40-year lifetime at 85% capacity, electricity charges will rise to 6.7 cents per kilowatt-
hour (coal) and 4±5.6 cents per kilowatt-hour (gas turbines). However, reactor safety
and storage/disposal of used fuel remain as unsolved problems.
7.4.6 Prospects and possibility of using hydrogen energy

First predictions of the possibilities of using hydrogen fuel by 2000 were made in
1970. These predictions were never realized, but in his address to the nation in 2003
President George W. Bush unveiled the ``Hydrogen Fuel Initiative'' which foresaw
investments of $1.2 billion over 5 years to develop the necessary technologies for
hydrogen energy production by 2020 and putting in place the infrastructure needed
for cars to run on hydrogen. In his speech on February 6, 2003 in the National
Building Museum (Washington, D.C., see www.nei.org/newsandevents/speechesand
testimony/2003/buildingmuseumprebushextended), he said: ``We saw cars engineered
to run on hydrogen . . . And there are a lot of advantages that I want to explain to the
American people about why this initiative makes sense. First, the hydrogen can be
produced from domestic sources, initially, natural gas; eventually, biomass, ethanol,
clean coal, or nuclear energy. That's important. If you can produce something
yourself, it means you're less dependent upon somebody else to produce it.'' Still
more ambitious plans were voiced by Arnold Schwarzenegger (Governor of Califor-
nia) according to which by the year 2010 a network of 150±200 hydrogen ®lling
stations will operate in this state. However, there is no doubt that before hydrogen
energy becomes a reality, serious work must be carried out concerning a wide range of
problems, from hydrogen production to means of its storage and distribution, right
through to ®nding a way of getting it into and storing it in fuel tanks.
At present the annual production of hydrogen in the U.S.A. constitutes 9 million
tons, one-third of which is used for ammonia production and two-thirds at oil
re®neries. From the most optimistic assessments, the mass application of hydrogen
fuel cannot become a reality before 2050, and this will require annual production of
111 million tH/yr. The initial components for hydrogen production are carbon and
oxygen, and one possible technology is water electrolysis which gives o hydrogen as
an accompanying emission of water vapor and heat. This technology is very simple
and ecologically safeÐbut expensive (especially with present power prices). Produc-
ing hydrogen by means of renewable energy sources (wind, solar energy, biomass
burning) is also expensive.
The technology used for hydrogen production is based on fossil fuels containing
carbon and hydrogen (natural gas is the most appropriate). This technology is much
more economical than electrolysis, but still exceeds 2±4 times the cost of petrol
production per unit of applied energy. Moreover, the limited nature of natural gas
resources may cause a rise in its price, which needs to be kept in mind. Another
technological diculty in the use of natural gas is the emission of CO2 (and the
concomitant negative ecological consequences). From the viewpoint of simplicity,
coal is much more promising, but in this case ecological consequences are even more
serious. Another possibility is to use nuclear energy to produce hydrogen (by means
of electrolysis or high-temperature thermochemical technology). Yet another is

photochemical transformation of marine algae, the feasibility (and economy) of
which requires thorough analysis.
Of course, there are serious diculties of distribution and storage (in cars, in
particular) of hydrogen fuel because of its low density and in¯ammability. As for
production and distribution, well this will involve the production of hydrogen at large
plants with its subsequent distribution through gas pipes. There is also the possibility
of transporting hydrogen in its liquid form. This will entail serious technical and
economic analysis, with the problem of hydrogen storage in cars being especially
dicult. Finally, the technical aspects of hydrogen fuel application with regard to fuel
cells and improved internal combustion engines remain unclear.
Thus, there are a number of technical obstacles along the path to mass applica-
tion of hydrogen fuel. To surmount them will involve serious investment and eort
which will arguably take several decades.
7.4.7 Economic development and renewable resources

If we exclude the power industry, the overall contribution of renewable sources of
energy to power generation remains small. This can be illustrated by comparative
data for the U.S.A. (Table 7.10). Naturally, hydroenergy prevails among renewable
energy sources, but there are a number of reasons that prospects for its further
development are limited. Second best (with a large gap between) is wind energy with
a high rate of growth (11% since 1990). Energy production from geothermal sources
remains at a low level. For example, in the U.S.A. since 1995 the use of geothermal
energy has dropped by 20%. In other countries, such as Japan, the Philippines, and
Costa Rica, the use of geothermal energy in this period increased by 32.1%, 55.6%,
and 158.2%, respectively. But, on the whole, power generated from geothermal
sources constitutes only 0.25% of total world production.
Table 7.10. Energy production and levels of generation from data for the U.S.A. for 2003.
Type of fuel Power Generation
1,000 MW % 10 9 kW/h %
Fossil/Nuclear 823 89.4 3,493 90.7
All renewable sources 98 10.6 359 9.3

Hydroenergy 79 8.6 275 7.1
Other types 19 2.0 84 2.2
Wind 7 0.7 11 0.3
Geothermal sources 2 0.2 13 0.3
Solar energy 0.5 0.1 1 0.0
Wood/Municipal solid waste 9.0 1.0 59 1.5
Total 920 100 3,852 100

Alhough, ecologically, the use of renewable sources of energy is to be welcomed,

they cannot be the panacea for all our energy needs, because of their comparatively
high cost. For instance, in the case of photoelectric converters of solar energy, total
expense on generating such energy (evaluated in kWh) is 3±4 times higher than in the
case the new technology IGCC. The role of renewable energy sources in the future
will depend on how competitive they are with non-renewable sources. Overcoming
this will require serious ®nancial support.
Nevertheless, renewable sources of energy will be the focus of future energy
technologies.
. Solar energy has been used in many traditional technologies for centuries and has
come widespread where other power supplies are absent, such as in remote
locations and in space. Solar energy is currently used in a number of applications
such as heat production, electricity generation, desalination of seawater, and
lighting.
. Wind power is a source of cheap energy and is generated by wind turbines. In
2005, the global capacity of wind-powered generators was 58,982 megawatts
(less than 1% of worldwide electricity use). For example, since the late 1970s
the U.S.A. cost goals for wind power have continued to be about $0.04 per
kilowatt-hour. Future wind plants are expected to play a signi®cant role in global
energy production.
. Hydropower takes the energy of moving water and converts it into electricity.
The energy of moving water has been exploited for centuries. But the spatial
distribution of rivers imposes restrictions on countries in the generation of hydro-
power energy. Global hydrological networks need to be set up to overcome this.
. Hydrogen holds great promise as a clean and aordable source of energy.
Hydrogen can be obtained from fossil sources (such as methane). It can also
be used to replace dwindling supplies of petroleum in future.
Table 7.11 considers the pros and cons of various energy carriers. The main
conclusion is that both now and in the near future, non-renewable energy sources
(fossil fuel and nuclear energy) will still prevail; with global energy developing in this
way studies into ecological safety become paramount. It is also necessary to consider
natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, which in late October 2005 wreaked
havoc with U.S. energy, destroying the energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.
There was a transient rise in oil and gas prices by 10%±20%, and during the winter of
2005±2006 they (as expected) grew only by 5%±10%. Hurricane Katrina led to
decreased gas and oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico by 1.34% and 24.6%,
respectively, at that time. The prospects for global energy can only be assessed by
adopting a systematic approach that takes both anthropogenic and natural factors
into account.
488
Table 7.11. Pros and cons of using dierent energy carriers.
Energy carrier Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear energy Renewable Hydrogen
sources energy
Problem
Are there No. Yes and no. No. No. Yes and no. Yes and no.
problems of fuel Explored Known resources The level of There are enough Resources are There are
delivery? resources are are enough for known resources resources of great but not dierent
enormous decades (at grows annually, uranium, in®nite, there are possibilities of
present prices) exceeding 70 plutonium, diculties with production of
times global thorium and territory hydrogen as a
consumption possibility to use allocation source of energy
the reprocessing
of nuclear fuel
Are there No. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.

problems of The cheapest Wide price Though large Ecological Costs are The major
cost? energy carrier, ¯uctuations resources do exist, eciency of decreasing problem:
whose price is strongly aect they are often nuclear stations (especially in the heavy cost of
lowering the economics located far from can be raised case of wind production
of its use the consumer only by reducing energy)
Nature±society system and climate, its interactive component
the construction
cost of NPSs
Are there Yes. Yes. To some extent. Yes and no. No. Yes and no.
negative Serious Oil spills, As in the case of No emissions Only limited Some negative
ecological ecological greenhouse gas coal and oil, but problem, but ecological ecological
consequences? consequences do emissions to a lesser extent there are consequences consequences are
exist diculties with are possible connected aith
waste storage hydrogen
production
[Ch. 7
Dependence on No Yes. To some extent. No. No. Maybe.
unreliable The most Possible As in the case of There are Serve as a Dependence on
Sec. 7.4]
delivery? signi®cant instability of oil sucient substitute for hydrogen

consumers have deliveries from supplies of non-renewable production from
rich reserves the Near East uranium resources natural gas
of coal and from Russia
in connection
with development
of terrorism
Serious technical Yes. Yes and no. No. No. Yes. Yes.
diculties? Technologies to Development of Use of present There are only Further Many technical
reduce harmful possible new technologies can problems of improvement of problems for
gas emissions as sources of oil be continued reduction of the photo- hydrogen
well as CO2 and improved construction cost transformers and energy remain
capture and engines are and development other technical unsolved
assimilation are necessary of methods means
still inadequately for waste
developed storage
7.4 Present state and prospects for world economic development 489
7.5 MODERN SOCIETY AND ECOLOGICAL RESTRICTIONS
7.5.1 Global instability

The present ecological situation worldwide can be exempli®ed by growing instability,
a civilization crisis, the global scale of which is expressed through deterioration of
human and animal habitats. The dominant features in global ecodynamics in the late
20th±early 21st century include the rapid growth in population (mainly in developing
countries), urban population growth at the expense of rural population (the growing
number of cities), broadening scales of such dangerous diseases as HIV/AIDS,
hepatitis, tuberculosis, etc. U.N. data predict global population in 2050 to reach
8.9 billion people. This means that the decrease in per capita consumption (expected
as a result of the growing eciency of technologies) will be canceled out by the impact
of population growth. For instance, if meat consumption by the average American
increases by 20% by 2050 (compared with 2000), then due to the growth of popu-
lation size in the U.S.A. the total mean consumption will increase by 5 million tons.
An important general fact is that despite the prevailing growth of population size in
developing countries, their contribution to the impact on the environment will not
necessarily exceed that reached in developed countries. For instance, U.S. population
size will annually increase by about 3 million people and in India by 16 million
people, but the impact of the U.S.A. on the environment (due to its higher per capita
consumption) will be more substantial. This is illustrated, in particular, by estimates
of growing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere: 15.7 million tC in the U.S.A., and 4.9
million tC in India.
7.5.2 Correlation between production and consumption

Key to ensuring NSS sustainable development is the production/consumption ratio
stated at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002.
China is a good example of the consumption dynamics observed in recent decades.
Until quite recently China was a country of cyclists. However, a traveler in the 1980s
visiting such cities as Beijing and Shanghai will see quite another picture today. In
2002 there were about 2 million cars in China, in 2003 the number increased daily by
11,000, and today the number has exceeded 4 million. In 2007, car sales increased by
more than 77%, and by 2015 the expectation is 150 million cars.
A considerable part of global population (more than 1.7 billion people) can now
be classed as consumers, half of whom live in developing countries. In recent decades
there has been a continuous increase in consumption in developed countries, a
``revolution in consumption''. The total per capita consumption due to goods and
services reached $26 trillion dollars in 2006 (in dollars of 2005), exceeding the level of
1960 by $10.9 trillion, but there are vast dierences between the situations in dierent
countries. For instance, 60% of per capita consumption falls on 16% of the world
population in the U.S.A. and Western Europe, whereas the share of consumption by
one-third of the global population in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa constitutes
a mere 3.2% (Table 7.12).
Sec. 7.5] 7.5 Modern society and ecological restrictions 491
Table 7.12. Share of global consumption and population in dierent regions.
Region Consumption Population

(%) (%)
U.S.A. and Canada 31.5 5.2
Western Europe 28.7 6.4
Eastern Asia and Oceania 21.4 32.9
Latin America and the Caribbean 6.7 8.5
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 3.3 7.9
Southern Asia 2.0 22.4
Australia and New Zealand 1.5 0.4
Near East and Northern Africa 1.4 4.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 10.9
In 2007 about 2.66 billion people lived at or just above the breadline ($2 per day)
and about 0.92 billion people in extreme poverty (<$1 per day). The number of
consumers with an annual income greater than $10,294 (this level is considered the
poverty threshold in Western Europe) constituted 1.76 billion people in 2006.
As can be seen from Table 7.13, almost half of consumers live in developing
countries, China and India constituting more than 20%, although of course the
average Chinese or Indian consumes much less than the average West European.
In addition to Sub-Saharan Africa being a disaster-prone region, the level of
consumption there in 2001 was 20% lower than in any year of the two previous
decades. According to available estimates, the number of consumers will at least
double by 2015. Table 7.14 illustrates the number of consumers in ten representative
countries in 2002, and Table 7.15 family expenditure on food in dierent countries in
1998.
The overwhelmingÐsome would say criminalÐfeature of domestic consumption
is that it is not aimed at satisfying basic levels of comfort or survival, but has to do
with expense on luxury items (sports cars, jewelry, vacations, cruises, etc.). Such
expense has reached huge levels (tens of billions of dollars). Satisfying such basic
things as the need for food, drinking water, education, and healthcare for the world's
poorest is possible with a mere fraction of these expenses.
The necessity to satisfy the growth in consumption leads to an increase in the use
of natural resources. Between 1960 and 1995 the global use of mineral raw materials
increased by a factor of 2.5: metals 2.1, wood 2.3, and synthetic materials 5.6. This
increase considerably exceeded the growth in population size, despite its extreme non-
uniformity. For instance, the U.S.A. whose population constitutes about 5% of the
world's consumes about one-fourth of the global resources of fossil fuel. The U.S.A.,
Table 7.13. Global distribution of consumers.
Region Number of Share of Share with

consumers consumers respect to
global
consumers
(millions) (%) (%)
U.S.A. and Canada 271.4 85 16
Western Europe 348.9 89 20
Eastern Asia and Paci®c Ocean region 494.0 27 29
Latin America and Caribbean region 167.8 32 10
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 173.2 36 10
Southern Asia 140.7 10 8
Australia and New Zealand 19.8 84 1
Near East and Northern Africa 78.0 25 4
Sub-Saharan Africa 34.2 5 2
Developed countries 912 80 53
Developing countries 816 17 47
Global 1,728 28 100
Canada, Australia, Japan, and Western Europe whose population constitutes about
15% of the world's annually use 61% of produced aluminum, 60% of lead, 59% of
copper, and 49% of steel. Annual utilization of aluminum by the average American
constitutes 22 kg, for the average Indian it is only 2 kg, and for the average African it
is less than 1 kg.
The general conclusion is that with an abundance of food and other goods,
conditions become ripe for unhealthy levels of consumption. Cheap energy and
improved transport favor the growth of consumption. The introduction of new
technology and its take-up by consumers is now faster than ever. For example, in
the U.S.A. it took 38 years for the number of radio listeners to reach the 50 million
level, for TV viewers it was 13 years, and for Internet surfers it was 4 years. The
necessity to sell produced goods has stimulated a rapid increase in global expenditure
on advertizing, reaching in 2002 a massive $446 billion (in dollars of 1991), which
constituted almost a nine-fold increase compared with 1950. At present, each credit
card owner in the U.S.A. pays interest of about $1,900, which is equivalent to the
average per capita income in the 39 poorest countries.
Table 7.14. Number of consumers.
Country Number of consumers Percentage share of country

population total
(millions) (%)
U.S.A. 242.5 84
China 239.8 19
India 121.9 12
Japan 120.7 95
Germany 76.3 92
Russia 61.3 43
Brazil 57.8 33
France 53.1 89
Italy 52.8 91
U.K. 50.4 86
Table 7.15. Family expenditure on food.
Country Per capita expenditure Share spent on food

on self
(U.S.$) (%)
Tanzania 375 67
Madagascar 608 61
Tajikistan 660 48
Lebanon 6,135 31
Hong Kong 12,468 10
Japan 13,568 12
Denmark 16,385 16
U.S.A. 21,515 13
This unhealthy level of consumption results in enhanced impacts on the environ-

ment and natural resources. Almost all ecosystems in the world have been impacted.
An indicator of the impact on global ecosystems called the `ècological imprint'' has
been introduced. This characterizes the size of productive land area needed to ensure
the production of needed resources and assimilation of emissions. Estimates have

shown that the global mean size of such a biologically productive land area should be
1.9 ha, and from the viewpoint of emission assimilation 2.3 ha. Of course, these
averages mask the real inequality in the sizes of ecological imprints, which vary from
9 ha for the average American to 0.47 ha for the average Mozambican. These ®gures
mean that total global consumption exceeded the ecological capacity of the planet as
long ago as the late 1970s±early 1980s. It goes without saying that life is only possible
with adequate reserves of natural resources.
Excess consumption (from the viewpoint of the load on ecosystems) in many
countries correlates with the lowering of health indicators resulting in diseases related
to such excess consumption. For instance, smoking increases annual global mortality
by 5 million people. Data for 1999 reveal smoking-induced expenditure on medical
services and economy losses in the U.S.A. reached $150 billion, exceeding 15 times
the incomes of the ®ve largest tobacco manufacturers. Also important are the con-
sequences of excess weight due to improper diet (respective medical expenses in 1999
reached $117 billion).
Against a background of material prosperity (on average), the social health of
U.S. society in the last 30 years has got much worse, which manifests itself through
growing poverty, suicides among young people, lack of an adequate medical service,
and a great disparity in incomes (the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer).
The continuing growth of consumption in developed countries, on the one hand,
and the respective serious negative aspects, on the other hand, throw up a few
questions.
. Are higher living standards as a result of increasing consumption typical of

global consumers?
. Is it possible to balance consumption and environmental protection?
. Can the ways of the consumption society be changed to ensure sustainable
development?
. Is society prepared to give top priority to satisfying the needs of all its members?
The concept of consumption society economics based on unlimited consumption

clearly cannot work because of the unavoidable environmental consequences.
Realization of such a concept would break economical, ecological, and social limita-
tions (thresholds). The main conclusion is that there is no hope for the consumption
society.
7.5.3 Systems that are vital for life

7.5.3.1 Freshwater
Let us now analyze the state of some of the most important systems of life support,
such as freshwater and energy supplies. Freshwater attracts a lot of attention since,
on the one hand, water is a key component of ecosystems and, on the other hand,
about one-third of the global population will experience a de®cit of water at some
time or other. This and other facts determined the announcement by the U.N. of the
Fresh Water Decade (2005±2015).
The sucient supply of pure water is of fundamental importance for achieving
the goals of socio-economic development and environmental protection. Enhancing
anthropogenic impacts on the environment are of concern here. For instance, the
area of freshwater wetlands, which play an important role in natural water puri®ca-
tion and in formation of the water cycle, have almost halved in the last 20 years. At
the same time, economic assessment puts a value on their losses equivalent to
$20,000/ha/yr. About 2% of 10,000 species of freshwater ®sh are either on the brink
of extermination or are extinct. The number of large dams in the world increased
from 5,000 in 1950 to more than 45,000 today, the negative ecological consequences
of which need no comment.
The geographical distribution of freshwater resources is extremely non-uniform:
six countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China, Colombia) have about half
of global resources. Non-uniformity is also typical of individual countries. For
instance, although China has 7% of world freshwater resources (but a 21% share
of world population), most of the country is arid. Naturally, countries that lack water
are forced to use ground water, which leads to a lowering of the water table.
Moreover, these data illustrate existing socio-economic contrasts. About every
®fth person in the developing world (1.1 billion people) daily runs the risk of falling ill
for lack of good-quality drinking water. However, the main problem is not the
absence of water at all, but unfavorable socio-economic conditions.
Agriculture is the basic consumer of the freshwater of rivers, lakes, and ground
water (about 70% on a global scale and up to 90% in many developing countries).
Since the growing use of irrigation will have to face up to the scantiness of freshwater
resources in the near future, the eciency of freshwater use gains in importance, and
fortunately there are many ways to raise this eciency. One of which is the use of
micro-irrigation (drip irrigation included) the scale of which remains rather limited.
There is a much room for economy in the use of water in food production. For
instance, to produce 10 g of protein in the form of beef requires ®ve times as much
water than for 10 g of rice, and for 500 Calories this dierence is 20-fold. With a lavish
meat diet, the average American requires 5.4 L/day, whereas for a vegetarian this
amount is halved.
The water supply in cities and realization of measures on water economy are
further problems. Industrial usage of freshwater, which constitutes 22% of used (on a
global scale) freshwater resources (59% of this in developed and 10% in developing
countries) is the most urgent problem.
7.5.3.2 Energy
During the period 1850±1970, global population size more than tripled, and energy
production increased 12 times. Today (2007) population size has increased by 93%,
and fossil fuel consumption by 87%. There appears to be no rigid connection between
energy production and economic growth. Measures on energy economy taken
between 1970 and 1997 ful®lled economic growth with a 28% decrease in the `ènergy
intensity'' of production. Global fossil fuel consumption in 2002 increased by 1.3%

(up to 8,034 million tons of oil equivalent) compared with 0.3% in 2001. Compared
with 1950, the level of fossil fuel consumption increased by a factor of 4.7. Now fossil
fuels ful®ll 80% of global energy consumption. World use of oil as the dominant
fossil fuel surged by 3.4% in 2004, to 82.4 million barrels per day. This represents the
fastest rate of increase in 16 years, according to Vital Signs (2005). Fossil fuel burning
continued to rise despite soaring energy prices in recent years: in 2004, coal use
jumped 6.3% and natural gas consumption rose 3.3%; in 2005, oil use increased
1.3%.
Respective trends for the consumption of various kinds of fossil fuel are rather
non-uniform. While the global mean increase of oil consumption in 2002 constituted
only 0.5%, in China it reached 5.7%, the Near East 2.5%, and the former U.S.S.R.
countries 1.9%, mainly due to export growth. In the U.S.A. (which consumes 26% of
global oil) the level of consumption increased negligibly. In some countries (Japan,
South Korea, Australia, New Zealand) this indicator lowered (on average) by 0.6%,
and in the countries of Latin America by 2.6%. In 2006 global oil consumption
growth was weaker by 1.2 Mbbl/day (1.4%) than that in 2005. The change of global
gas production between 2006 and 2005 was 2.3% (WI, 2007).
After a transient but signi®cant decrease of coal consumption in the late 1990s, in
2002 global consumption increased (compared with 2001) by 1.9% (2,298 million
tons of oil equivalent). In the U.S.A. (which consumes 25% of global coal) a 0.5%
decrease was observed, and in China (which consumes 23% of global coal) a 4.9%
increase (despite a ban in the use of coal in some regions, where frequent smog and
acid rains are observed). Worldwide, global coal consumption increased by 4.5%
reaching 3,090.1 million tons oil equivalent in 2006. Distribution of coal consumption
by dierent regions is: North America 0.7%, Southern and Central America 5.3%,
Europe and Eurasia 3.1%, the Middle East 1.1%, Africa 2.4%, and Asia Paci®c
7.0%.
Global mean growth of natural gas consumption constituted 2% in 2000 (2,428.0
billion cubic meters) and 2.5% in 2006 (2,850.8 billion cubic meters), but in the
U.S.A. (which consumes 22%±27% of global natural gas) there was a 1.7%±3.7%
decrease (in the previous ®ve years), which was determined mainly by several mild
winters (BP, 2007). A decrease in natural gas consumption was also observed in some
other developed countries, reaching a maximum in Japan (10.4%), but in Norway the
increase was much greater (up to 81%). On the whole, natural gas witnessed the most
rapid growth of consumption (compared with other fossil fuels) ful®lling currently
almost 24% of global energy needs (compared with 22.5% a decade ago). Various
factors determine such an increase including the availability of natural gas in many
countries and its weaker (compared with other fossil fuels) negative impact on the
environment.
The levels of energy consumption dier strongly between various countries. The
population of the richest countries consumes (per capita) on average 25 times more
energy than the population of the poorest countries. For 2.5 billion people in the
world (living mainly in Asia and Africa), the main source of energy remains wood (or
other kinds of biomass). Let us take a look at both ends of the spectrum: the U.S.A.
and Ethiopia. In the U.S.A., the per capita commercial energy consumption con-
stitutes (in weight units of oil equivalent) 8.1 t/yr, but in Ethiopia this is only 0.3 t/yr.
The respective extreme global levels of oil consumption are 70.2 bbl da 1 and
0.3 bbl da 1 per thousand people, and of electric power 12,331 kW and 22 kW per
thousand people. Hence, the level of per capita CO2 emission to the atmosphere
reaches 19.7 t in the U.S.A. and only 0.1 t in Ethiopia.
According to estimates of the International Energy Agency, in the period 2000±
2003 the annual global mean production of primary energy should be 1.7%, reaching
the level 15,300 million tons of oil equivalent in 2030. The growing need for energy
(mainly in developing countries) should be 90% satis®ed by fossil fuels. However,
even by 2030, about 18% of global population will be deprived of such modern
sources of energy as electricity. Of course, these predictions should be considered
conditional.
There has been substantial progress in the use of alternative sources of energy,
such as nuclear and wind energy. The attitude to nuclear energy in dierent countries
remains ambiguous. The number of nuclear reactors in the world (in NPSs) has
increased to 437 due to the commissioning in 2007 of new reactors in China (4),
South Korea (2), and the Czech Republic (1). In 2002, construction was started of six
new reactors in India, and 26 others worldwide were in the process of construction
(their combined power will be 20,959 MW). In the U.K. NPSs are considered
uncompetitive, and Belgium plans to ban them by 2025.
As for the use of wind energy, well at the end of 2002 the total power production
due to wind generators constituted 27% (in Western Europe 31%). Compared with
1998, wind energy production has tripled, making it the most rapidly developing
source of energy. Western Europe's contribution to global wind energy constitutes
73%, with the most coming from Germany, Spain, and Denmark.
The increased use of fossil fuels and related growth of CO2 emissions to the
atmosphere have aroused concern regarding possible anthropogenic global climate
change. Without a detailed discussion of the cause-and-eect bonds between tem-
perature and CO2 concentration. Note that, despite the adoption of international
documents about the necessity to reduce GHGs emissions to the atmosphere (CO2
included), global mean CO2 concentration continues to grow. This trend will likely
remain in the near future. In 2002, 6.44 billion tC were emitted to the atmosphere
(a 1% increase compared with 2001), and CO2 concentration reached 372.9 ppm,
increasing by 18% between 1960 and 2002, and since the beginning of the industrial
revolution (1750) by 31%. About 24% of global CO2 emissions are down to the
U.S.A., with per capita CO2 emissions exceeding 17 times those observed in India.
Similar trends in the growth of anthropogenic emissions are observed for other
GHGs, which considerably complicates nature±society relationships.
All of this means that the present state of human society (including socio-
economic and ecological conditions) cannot be considered stable from all points
of view. The growing database shows that the present structure of consumption
results in worsening living standards for many people, manifested through health
problems, water quality, destroyed ecosystems, etc. Despite the continuing improve-
ment of technologies and measures on energy supply, under conditions of the
growing global population size and growing level of per capita consumption
(especially in developed countries), the prospects for global sustainable development
in the 21st century are far from clear.
The possibility to achieve the same average level of energy consumption as in
developed countries (and this level is much lower than in the U.S.A.) is out of the
question. It would necessitate an eight-fold (maybe more) increase of energy
production during the period 2007±2050. It is clear that this increase is impossible
using fossil fuels. Even if such an increase were feasible, it would be followed by
negative ecological consequences. Nevertheless, the prospects for suciently inten-
sive development of alternative energy sources in the 21st century remain unclear.
Nevertheless, humankind should search for ways to achieve sustainable devel-
opment. The developed countries should take the lead in solving this problem, by
supporting policies aimed at ecologically pure production and creation of ecient
methods of energy supply. In other words, the paradigm for socio-economic devel-
opment should be changed from the consumption society to priorities of social and
spiritual values. Concrete analysis of ways of bringing about this development will
require the eorts of specialists in the ®eld of social sciences. Some related ideas were
mentioned by Corcoran (2005) in the context of Earth Charter problems. In principle,
supplies of some kinds of energy on Earth are unlimited, but their use requires
considerable progress in many spheres of knowledge as well as the indicated change
in priorities of global ecodynamics.
7.5.4 Future analysis of human life

The UNEP-conceived International Human Dimensions Program on Global
Environmental Change (IHDP) outlines priorities pertinent to the environment
and the development goals for a millennium. The fundamental objective in this
program is the need to consider correlations between key problems of ecodynamics
determined by numerous feedbacks and the non-linearity of the NSS, due to which
``threshold eects'' can occur as can synergy between technologies and ecological
policy. Numerous illustrations of the urgency of taking into account various
correlations are contained in global climate change problems.
Adequate analysis of the role of feedbacks and the non-linearity of the NSS is
seriously complicated by the fragmentary character of available information. It is a
pity here that the concept of biotic regulation of the environment developed by
Russian scientists has still not been accepted, for it might serve as the conceptual
basis for solution of the problems of global ecodynamics. It is important that bio-
spheric mechanisms also serve as the basis for the system of life support in manned
space vehicles. Unfortunately, the concept of biotic regulation remains `ùnnoticed''
in the West, which can be illustrated, in particular, by a discussion of the Gaia
conception which contains rhetorical statements about the Earth as an `àutotrophic
self-regulated super-organism''. Of course, maintenance of environmental stability is
one of the basic goals of all living organisms. Therefore, an important task of present-
day science is to point out the priorities for global ecodynamics and to search for real
ways to achieve sustainable development.
Sec. 7.6] 7.6 Ecological crises and disasters 499
7.6 ECOLOGICAL CRISES AND DISASTERS
7.6.1 Essence of the problem

As civilization develops, the forecasting of future environment changes and relevant
changes in the living conditions of people have become most important. The ®rst
problem of interest is the origin and propagation of dangerous natural phenomena
(i.e., natural disasters) which lead to loss of life and cause serious economic damage.
At present, natural disasters include ¯oods, droughts, hurricanes, storms, tornados,
tsunami, volcanic eruptions, landslides, landslips, mud ¯ows, snow avalanches, earth-
quakes, forest ®res, dust storms, heavy frosts, heatwaves, epidemics, locust plagues,
and many other natural events. Their occurrence is mostly of anthropogenic origin.
Natural anomalies of dierent spatiotemporal scales are known to have played
an important role in the evolution of nature as mechanisms for natural system
regulation. With the development of industry and growth of population size, these
mechanisms have suered substantial changes and reached a level that threatens life.
This is mainly related with the growth and propagation of anthropogenic forcings in
the environment. Many relevant studies have been conducted. They show that the
frequency of natural disasters and their scale have grown, increasing the risk of loss of
life, economic losses, and damage to social infrastructure (Figure 7.1, Tables 7.16±
7.18). For instance, in 2001 some 650 natural disasters occurred in the world costing
the lives of more than 25,000 people and causing damage estimated at more than $35
Figure 7.1. Dynamics of the number of largest natural disasters. From Munich Re (2004).
Notation: diagonal hatching natural disasters, checkerboard pattern economic losses.
Table 7.16. Continental distribution of natural disasters and the resulting damage (Ruck, 2002;
Phelan, 2004; Munich Re, 2005a, b).
Region Number of Number of fatalities Economic losses, millions of

natural disasters U.S.$. Insurance payments
are given in brackets
2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004
Africa 51 57 36 661 2,778 1,322 308 5,158 444

(158) (0) (0)
America 181 206 185 825 946 4830 13,933 21,969 68,183
(6,259) (13,247) (34,585)
Asia 261 245 245 8,570 53,921 170,254 13,965 18,230 72,706
(385) (600) (7887)
Australia and 69 65 52 61 47 67 2192 628 343

Oceania (11) (246) (124)
Europe 136 126 124 459 20194 371 2,4246 18,619 3,765
(5,897) (1,690) (1,218)
Globe 698 699 642 10,576 77,886 176,844 54,644 64,604 145,441
(12,750) (15,810) (355,080)
Table 7.17. Statistics on the most powerful natural disasters (Ruck, 2002; Munich Re, 2005a, b;
Enz, 2006).
Years 1950±59 1960±69 1970±79 1980±89 1990-99 1992±02 2003±05
Number of 20 27 47 63 91 70 38
natural
disasters
Economic 42.1 75.5 138.4 213.9 659.9 550.9 767.8

losses, billions
of dollars
billion. In 2002, the death toll dropped to 11,000, but economic damage reached
$55 billion. In 2003, there the death toll reached 50,000 and economic losses reached
$60 billion. In Russia alone the number of natural disasters in the last decade
increased from 60 to 280. In 2004, in the U.S.A. there were a record number of
tornados (562), beating the record held by 1992 which witnessed 399 tornados. The
beginning of 2004 saw an increase in extreme situations mainly of weather origin, and
the year ended with a global disaster on December 26, with huge losses for countries
Table 7.18. Most powerful earthquakes in the history of humankind (Grigoryev and
Kondratyev, 2001a, b; Hanson, 2005).
Year Region Fatalities

(thousands)
365 The East Mediterranean region (excluding Syria) 50
844 Syria (Damascus) 50
893 Armenia 100
893 India 180
1138 Syria 100
1268 Turkey (Semjiya) 60
1290 China (Djili) 100
1456 Italy (Naples) 60
1556 China (Shengshi) 830
1626 Italy (Naples) 70
1667 Azerbaijan (Shemakha) 80
1668 China (Shandung) 50
1693 Italy (Sicily) 60
1727 Iran (Tebriz) 77
1730 Japan (Hokkaido) 137
1737 India (Bengaluru, Calcutta) 300
1739 China (Ninaya) 50
1755 Portugal (Lisbon) 60
1783 Italy (Calabria) 50
1868 Ecuador (Ibarra) 70
1908 Italy (Messina) 82.5
1920 China (Hanshu) 180
1920 China (Ningsha) 200
1923 Japan (Canto) 140
(continued)
Table 7.18 (cont.)

(thousands)
1923 Japan (Tokyo) 99.3
1932 China (Hanshu) 70
1935 Pakistan (Kuetta) 60
1948 Turkmenistan (Ashkhabad) 110
1957 Gobi-Altai (Mongolia, Buriatiya, Irkutsk and Chita Region) 0
1970 Peru (Chimbote) 66
1970 Iran 50
1972 Nicaragua 5
1972 Iran 5
1974 Pakistan 5.3
1974 Guatemala 22.084
1976 Indonesia 5
1976 Turkey (Van) 4
1976 China (Tien Shan) 255
1976 Guatemala 22.085
1976 Philippines 3.739
1978 Iran 25
1985 Mexico 9.5
1988 Armenia 25
1988 Turkey 25
1990 Iran (western part) 40
1993 India 9.475
1994 U.S.A. (California) 0.061
1995 Japan, Kobe 6.43
1998 Afghanistan (Takhar) 4


(thousands)
1999 Turkey 19.118
1999 Russia, earthquake in Neftegorsk 2
2001 India, Pakistan 15
2002 Alaska, U.S.A. 0
2002 Afghanistan 1
2003 Iran (southeast) 26.271
2004 Southeastern Asia (Sumatra, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka) 283
2004 Niigata Prefecture, Japan 0.04
2005 Indonesia, Malaysia 2
2005 Nias Island, Indonesia, Northern Sumatra 2.5
2006 Indonesia 5.749
2007 China (Yunnan) 0.3
in the Indian Ocean basin, and hundreds of thousands of victims. In Sri Lanka alone
the damage was estimated at $3.5 billion. This tragedy recurred on March 28, 2005,
when a magnitude 8.7 earthquake with its epicenter only 200 km southeast of the
December 26 epicenter cost the lives of hundreds of people and devastated large areas
in Indonesia and Malaysia. On the whole, 19 earthquakes of magnitude 5 were
recorded in 2004.
Indices of losses caused by natural disasters depend much on the preparedness of
the regional population to reduce the risk of losses. The heaviest losses are caused by
¯oods and hurricanes. The spatial distribution of natural disasters is also non-uni-
form (Table 7.16). For example, the percentage distribution of natural disasters by
type and continent is as follows: tropical storms 32%, ¯oods 32%, earthquakes 12%,
droughts 10%, other disasters 14%; Asia 38%, America 26%, Africa 14%, Europe
14%, and Oceania 8%.
Natural disasters have always been regulators of evolution. However, the huma-
n)element in natural disaster occurrence highlights the need to maintain the stabil-
izing role of such regulators in the future. Therefore, the principal goal for
humankind is to ®nd a means of reducing the level of anthropogenic change in
the biosphere.
7.6.2 How natural disasters affect human life

Natural disasters can be geographic, spatial, temporal, ecological, economic, and
socio-political in scale. The generally accepted de®nition of natural disasters
subdivides them into categories. For example, large-scale disasters lead to the loss
of many thousands of lives and substantial damage to housing, businesses, and the
infrastructure of a given region. Hence, the scale of natural disasters depends on how
developed the region is economically and socio-politically and what degree of protec-
tion has been put in place against natural disasters (i.e., sea walls, levees, readiness of
emergency services, etc.). Therefore, studies of the causes of natural disasters should
include analysis of population density and the level of poverty of a given region.
Studies over the last 25 years show the dependence of losses from natural disasters in
developing countries is much stronger than in developed countries. In the last decade
there was an approximate ®ve-fold increase in the number and scale of natural
disasters and a nine-fold increase in the danger they posed. Using this information
enables us to indicate the likely dangers in the near future that pose threats for the
population of these countries. Prediction and warning of imminent natural disasters
in the world, on the whole, should be the number one priority for all countries,
irrespective of their economic development.
The development and scale of natural disasters depend on natural background
conditions which can either hinder or favor the propagation of the phenomenon and,
hence, weaken or intensify its impact on the environment. The number of victims
among the population depends on the level of social development, which is mani-
fested through the level of sophistication of systems at predicting, warning, and
preventing possible natural disasters. In fact, a multitude of factors can be considered
as natural and social forerunners to a natural disaster. Assessment of the scale of a
natural disaster depends on the human response to it. For instance, the danger posed
by a tropical cyclone is determined by the combined impact of all its components:
wind, rain, and storm surges. Wind speed in a tropical cyclone can exceed 250 km/hr
and cover a band 40 km±800 km wide. Such a wind speed destroys buildings, knocks
out communications, devastates vegetation, and inevitably results in people losing
their lives and property being severely damaged. During the lifetime of a tropical
cyclone, rains can deposit 2,500 mm of water, which inevitably leads to ¯oods. One of
the deadly elements of a tropical cyclone is the storm surge, when seawater rises
above the normal by as much as 7 m (although higher levels have been reported). This
leads to rapid ¯ooding of coastal lowlands. Finally, when winds and storm surges
combine this leads to propagation of huge waves that destroy all before them:
beaches, agricultural land, all manner of constructions, and homes in the coastal
zone. The cyclone body usually moves at a speed of 24 km/hr increasing up to
80 km/hr as the cyclone moves away from the place of origin. The destructive power
of the accompanying waves is irresistible.
Calculating the scale of natural disasters presumes, ®rst, predicting their eco-
logical consequences. They manifest themselves, gradually over time, as reduced
productivity of ecosystems, changes in the structure of the water balance over the
territory, and violation of vital environmental parameters. In other words, when
developing technology to estimate the scale of natural disasters, it is necessary to take

into account criteria from a wide range of ®elds: medico-biological, economic, social,
botanical, soil, zoological, and geodynamical. One component of this technology is
the classi®cation of natural disasters and use of knowledge from dierent sciences,
especially those sciences leading to perspective technologies for future use. For
example, there is an urgent need to understand the role of climate change in the
processes of genetic modi®cation, or the discovery of correlations between environ-
mental changes and technical, economic, and political responses to these changes.
7.6.3 Natural disasters as an ecodynamics component

For almost 4 billion years, living beings have been changing the planetary chemistry
and climate and, possibly, determining the habitability of the planet. Put another
way, the reason the present world is inhabited is because today's organisms evolved in
the past in harmony with changing geological and biological conditions. Among the
many processes regulating the environment, natural disasters occuped a niche of their
own and played their part in biospheric evolution. However, we are currently
witnessing an increasing trend of anthropogenically induced natural disasters, such
as ¯oods, forest and peat ®res, deforestation, deserti®cation, and epidemics, which
are changing the character of natural feedbacks and, hence, changing the role of
natural disasters.
The regulatory role of natural disasters can be seen in dierent ways. For
instance, tropical hurricanes form upwelling zones in the World Ocean, which
promote the productivity of respective water basins, but, on land, they destroy
forested areas that remove carbon from the cycle, thus reducing the removal of
CO2 from the atmosphere and enhancing the greenhouse eect. Forest ®res, both
anthropogenic and natural, are another example. Lightning prevails among the
natural causes of ®res. On average, the frequency of strikes in tropical forests and
moderate-zone forests is, respectively, 50 and 5 strikes per square kilometer. The
probability of catching ®re depends much on the moisture content of the territory.
From available estimates, lightning strikes annually cause more than 20,000 forest
®res. Their geography is determined by climate, and their propagation and scale
are functions of numerous factors of the environment (soil moisture, temperature,
density and type of trees, relief, etc.).
The beginning of the 21st century witnessed vast forest ®res in Russia, Europe,
America, Australia, and South-East Asia. For example, in the summer of 2004, 197
forest ®res were recorded across Russia. They ¯ared up in the Krasnoyarskiy Krai,
Komi, and Saha Republics, in the Arkhangelskaya, Vladimirskaya, Irkutskaya,
Kirovskaya, Sverdlovskaya, and Tchitinskaya Regions, as well as in the Far East.
The scale of these forest ®res can be judged by their number: Arkhangelskaya 12,
Yakut 22, and Komi 20. The most numerous forest ®res in Russia were in the Far
East (47). Since Russian forests play a signi®cant role in CO2 absorption from the
atmosphere, their state is the focus of attention of the scienti®c world, if not of the
population as a whole. There are many international nature protection programs
studying the state of forests across Russia (Goldammer and Furyaev, 1996; Kovalev,
2003).
This NOAA AVHRR satellite image composite shows ®re activities in the
Russian Federation (Yurganov et al., 2006). According to satellite-derived analysis
undertaken by the Sukachev Institute for Forests (Krasnoyarsk), the total areas
burned by August 25, 2003 and by June 5, 2006 in the Russian Federation were
23,470,000 ha and 10,079,945 ha, respectively. These data con®rm the growing con-
cern about forest ®res in Russia, especially in light of the importance of Russian
forests to the global climate system. The role Russian forests play in the functioning
of the global biogeochemical system should be further studied and assessed in detail.
7.6.4 Outlook for the future of global ecodynamics

The present trend of the interaction between human society and the environment
con®rms intensive deforestation and deserti®cation as the most characteristic and
widespread processes (especially in the latter decades of the 20th century). The
ecological consequences of these processes include degradation of conditions under
which people live and violation of the stabilizing role of vegetation in the energy
exchange between the planet and space. There is a general decrease in the diversity of
living creatures. Therefore, when considering the prospects for life on Earth, we
should ®rst assess the level of environmental degradation, since with the passage
of time local and regional changes in the environment develop into global ones.
The amplitudes of these changes are determined by mechanisms in the functioning
of the NSS that ensure optimal changes in its components. Humankind increasingly
deviates from this optimality in how it interacts with the inert, abiotic, and biotic
components of the natural environment. However, at the same time, humankind is
striving to comprehend the character of large-scale interactions with nature as
manifested by the joint eorts of the many sciences studying the cause-and-eect
relations in this system. In particular, ®nding an indicator to assess the appearance of
the planet as a result of changes in forested areas is now very urgent. Biocomplexity is
a good candidate. It is de®ned as the sum of all energy connections between various
types of biospheric ecosystems, and is a suciently informative indicator of this
change. It shows that further felling of wild forests will drastically reduce biodiversity
and change the albedo over a large territory, leading inexorably to considerable
change in global climate. With a 10% decrease in wild forest area by 2050, biodi-
versity will decrease by 18%, and by 2100 the concentration of CO2 will grow by
44%. However, if there is a 10% increase of this area, biodiversity will rise by 32%
and CO2 concentration will drop by 15%.
An important component of life on our planet is volcanic activity. Throughout
geological history, continents have repeatedly merged and separated. Apparently,
about 2.5 billion years ago there were 20 continents, and 2 billion years later in the
early Proterozoic they numbered only 13. In 1.5 billion years time Australia,
America, Africa, and Eurasia will combine with the Antarctic to form a super-
continent. Of course, the volcanic boundaries of continents will also change. These
seemingly slow processes must not be neglected in studies and assessments of present
trends in changes in the ecological situation on Earth. Intensive degassing deep in

the Earth and global disasters are synchronous. Such events as El NinÄo and the
formation of ozone holes depend much on the intensity of the hydrogen ¯ow from the
depths of the Earth to the atmosphere, and methane emissions in degassing zones
aect variations of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
Future events can be forecast from current trends in ecological situations. Let us
take the Aral Sea as an example. Much has been written on this subject and a large
number of scenarios have been worked out. But, the sad conclusion is that if the
in¯uence on the hydrological regime of this zone continues in the near future there
will be deserti®cation and salinity over huge areas of Middle Asia. To estimate the
scale of such a disaster, it is necessary to bear in mind variations in the distribution of
precipitation over vast areas from the steppes of Stavropolye and Kalmykia to the
Pamir and Tien Shan mountains. These variations are predetermined by large-scale
spatiotemporal changes in ¯uxes of atmospheric moisture from the Caspian and Aral
Seas, Gulf of Kara Bogaz Gol (KBG), large reservoirs and sewage works, saline
lands, and other typical evaporators of surface and ground waters throughout
Middle Asia.
The 1950s to 1960s were representative of the optimal balance between ecology
and people living beside the Caspian Sea and the prospects for many-sided develop-
ment of the near Caspian and Middle Asian regions were good. For example, the
Caspian Sea level varied between 28 m and 28.5 m with respect to the World
Ocean level, and its area varied between 370 km 2 /yr and 375 km 2 /yr. However, from
available estimates, the surface area of the Caspian Sea reached 420 km 2 in 1994
showing an increasing trend and the volume of evaporated water exceeded that of
1960 by 50 km 3 /yr. More than half this amount could be attributed to the northern
shallow part of the sea. It is expected that with the rising level of the Caspian Sea (3 m
from 1978), upwellings will occur with waves propagating for tens of kilometers
inland from the coastline, contaminating ground water, destroying levees, leaching
from the sea harmful wastes and poisonous products of extraction (such as sulfur),
and processing hydrocarbon-containing materials.
By applying a model approach to analysis of the water balance of the Aral Sea
region, we can consider various hypothetical situations of the impact on the water
balance to see if it can be transformed from the present unfavorable state to one that
functions stably from the viewpoint of economy and hydrometeorology. One way out
of this critical situation is to reduce the amount of water taken for irrigation. Of
course, removing the Kara Kum Canal is not an option, since many agricultural areas
depend on it. Nevertheless, the governments of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are
considering the possibility of partially reducing the area given over to cotton planta-
tions in order to return any unnecessary water to the Aral Sea. A search for other
ways of preventing an ecological catastrophe in Middle Asia resulted in various
scenarios, including the transfer of some Siberian river water (rejected by many
scientists). A more realistic scenario consists in arti®cial irrigation, taking water from
the Caspian Sea, saline lands, and hollows on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea.
This is feasible because these areas are at a lower level ( 25.7 m) than the Caspian
Sea. Such areas include the lifeless Kultuk ( 27 m), Kaidok ( 31 m), KBG Gulf
( 32 m), Kaundy ( 57 m), Karin Arik ( 31 m), and Charala Sor ( 30 m). As a result
of evaporation, water builds up here at the rate of 0.2 km 3 /day, and is transported
with a little help from the wind to the Turan lowland and farther on to the sources of
the Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers. The contribution of excess atmospheric water
from the Caspian Sea to the growth of river run-o to the Caspian Sea could be as
much as 40 km 3 /yr. By maintaining constant wind direction between the Caspian
and Aral Seas, there is the possibility of the Aral Sea returning to its 1960 state in
12 15 years.
After the December 26, 2004 earthquake (which registered magnitude 9 on the
Richter scale) at the northwestern end of Sumatra, the prediction of extreme natural
events has become urgent. It is clear that, at the moment, geophysics can only make
suggestions as to the causes of earthquakes and put forward dierent hypotheses for
their occurrence (e.g., shifts in the Earth's crust). The most dicult problem facing
science today is earthquake prediction. Despite the presence of centers speci®cally set
up to record minute oscillations in the Earth's crust, the progress of the scienti®c
community in understanding the laws that control the development of the Earth as a
planet is slow. Nevertheless, some progress has been achieved in predicting other
types of natural disasters due to development of the theory of climate and global
ecodynamics. However, no estimates or predictions can be made without making
certain climate scenarios or likely strategies of humankind development available.
Therefore, it is important that these scenarios are set up by giving a prominent place
to the pre-history of NSS development.
One possible approach to predicting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is by
using statistics of these natural disasters as input information for the recently devel-
oped technology of evolution modeling. Prediction of random number series using
evolution modeling makes it possible to determine with some accuracy the time of
occurrence of the next event. For example, this approach came up with the following
estimates. In the next 20 years, we should expect annually, on average, 2±3 earth-
quakes of magnitude >7 and 4±5 earthquakes of magnitude 5±7. We should also
expect ®ve large-scale volcanic eruptions by 2020.
Assessment of variability in global water balance components would also be of
interest. Based on the scenario that foresees population size increasing to 11 billion
people by 2100, we should see the precipitation rate in northwestern Europe increas-
ing by 2020, causing a 400 km 3 /day decrease in atmospheric moisture ¯uxes from the
European continent to America. In other regions, changes in moisture cycle should
vary within 7% with a gradual growth in amplitude by 2100. As a result, by the end
of the century the rate of precipitation should increase in the regions of the Paci®c
coast of America, northeast India, and southwest China, and the zone of heavy rains
in Europe should broaden northward. Hence, ¯oods in these regions should be more
frequent. At the same time, the rain rate on the eastern coast of North America, in the
countries of Middle Asia and the Near East should decrease, and the regime of
contrasts in rainy/dry season alternation should change in southeastern Asia. For
the European continent, a negative factor is likely to be a marked decrease in rainfall
in Greece, Italy, and in the Caucasus. In central Europe the rain regime should not
change by more than 3%.
Sec. 7.7] 7.7 Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the nature±society system 509
7.7 NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE NATURE±

SOCIETY SYSTEM
The problem of the combined evolution of humans and nature can be traced back to
the beginning of the industrial period, when the impact of population on natural
processes became noticeable. The rate of this impact has been rapidly increasing over
time, and now life itself is at stake.
Anthropogenic processes in the biosphere have become comparable with natural
processes. The appearance of the land surface is rapidly changing, forests are decreas-
ing, and cultivated land is growing. Anthropogenically introduced forest ®res in
dierent regions vary from 10% to 75%. For example, the tropics, which cover
30% of the Earth's surface (4.6 billion ha), contain 42% of the Earth's forests, the
area of which decreases by 12 million ha per year. This is caused by population
growth in tropical countries (by 24% per year on average), which leads to an annual
increase in ploughed lands of 100 million ha. Similar trends can also be observed in
other regions of the globe. On the whole, the global loss of forests by 2000 constituted
0.5 million ha.
Similar negative trends in other natural formations can be observed all over the
globe. The extent to which global biogeochemical processes are being impacted by
humans introducing chemical elements to the biosphere and violating natural cycles
in which these elements transform is of concern to scientists. The normally positive
balance of organic matter in the geological cover of the Earth has now become
negative, as a result of human activity, leading inexorably to the growth of GHGs.
The quantitative characteristics of these processes are well known.
To assess the trends in biosphere dynamics and understand the level of danger
facing the environment from human activity, many investigators, using databases on
environmental parameters and their understanding of the unique character of natural
systems, are trying to create global models and, from their own experience of the
unique character of natural systems, have created models to predict the possible
consequences of anthropogenic activity.
The biosphere on a global scale, unlike its local components, can be studied
experimentally. Therefore, all we can do here is to carry out global experiments using
numerical models of the biosphere on computers. These models require a formaliza-
tion of climatic, biotic, geochemical, economic, and social processes. As mentioned in
the works of many Russian and other specialists on modeling global processes, the
level of adequacy of these studies is determined by the extent to which real processes
are simpli®ed in the models (Krapivin and Kondratyev, 2002; Kondratyev et al.,
2004a; Krapivin and Varotsos, 2007; Degermendzhy, 2008).
Pachauri (2004) convincingly con®rmed the thesis of Kondratyev et al. (2002a, b)
that eective and safe study of correlations between natural and anthropogenic
processes is only possible using a global model that re¯ects the diversity of the phase
space of the NSS. Furthermore, Pachauri (2004) posed three questions:
(i) In what way has man's activity affected the climate system of our planet?
(ii) What are the consequences of climate change and what types and levels of the
impacts are caused by human activity?
(iii) What can humankind undertake to soften climate change and to adapt them-
selves to a level of climate change, which seems to be unavoidable now and
probably tomorrow?
Clearly, the GMNSS can answer these questions. But, its use presumes the
availability of comprehensive databases and knowledge from dierent scienti®c
branches. By using a modeled biosphere instead of the biosphere itself we can get
answers about the consequences of changes to natural systems as a result of human
projects.
With the combination of available databases and numerical modeling of global
processes, it is possible to achieve acceptable similarity between the observed
behavior of the biosphere and model predictions. There has been remarkable pro-
gress at the Institute of Biophysics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
(Krasnoyarsk) in assessing biospheric stability thresholds using basic theoretical and
experimental models, the results of which agree with the global monitoring data.
Figure 7.2 shows the conceptual diagram of the global model of NSS functioning.
This diagram was achieved by many authors under dierent modi®cations (Krapivin,
1993; Degermendzhy, 2008; Kondratyev and Krapivin, 2004a; Krapivin, Svirezhev,
and Tarko, 1982; Krapivin et al., 1996a; Kondratyev et al., 2004a). The last improve-
ment of this diagram was described by Krapivin and Varotsos (2007).
Figure 7.2. Organization of the global model of NSS functioning.

Figure 7.3. Key elements of the nature±society system and energy components that need to be
considered for global ecodynamics forecast in the framework of global model use.
Figure 7.3 shows the basic components taken into account in this realization of
the GMNSS. A block-scheme of the GMNSS is based on the hierarchy of the units
that parametrize interactions between key elements of the NSS. The model structure
has the units that realize the controlling functions and are responsible for modeling
the biogeochemical and biogeocoenotic processes. The GMNSS database is formed
as two structures:
(1) Data of the ®rst type for the global model units are stored as geographical maps
and as tables of model equation coecients.
(2) Data of the second type are represented as fragments of record (possibly
irregularly) in time and space (i.e., CO2 concentration, temperature, precipita-
tion, pressure, population density, availability of resources, etc.).
Figure 7.2 is realized by introducing the geographical grid f'I ; j g with steps of
sampling of land surface and the World Ocean of D'i and Dj in latitude ' and
longitude , respectively, so that within a pixel f'i ; j : 'i ' < 'i D'i ,
j < j Dj g all processes and elements of the NSS are considered as homo-
geneous and parametrized by point models. The choice of the size of pixels is
determined by several conditions governed by the spatial resolution of satellite
measurements and the available global database. It is clear that the precision of
the global model depends on the quality of the knowledge base and database renewal.
A management procedure for global model precision was proposed by
Kondratyev, Krapivin, and Pshenin (2000). The main idea behind this procedure
consists in the use of evolutionary modeling for the synthesis of a combined model
whose structure is subject to adaptation against the background of the history of a
system of the biosphere and climate components. The form of such a synthesis
depends on the spatiotemporal completeness of the global database.
Figure 7.4 explains the technology for the synthesis of the global system of
environmental control using standard means of telecommunication. The basic
component of this technology is the GMNSS, which plays the role of consumer of
data delivered by the global environment observation systems. Kelley et al. (1992)
called this technology GIMS (GeoInformation Monitoring System) technology.
This technology proposes the criteria that allow the selection of the informational
structure of the geoinformation-monitoring system representing the hierarchical
Global system of environmental monitoring
Figure 7.4. The principal scheme from GIMS technology to synthesize the global system of
control of the environment using standardized means of telecommunications and GMNSS.
subordination of the models at various levels. Application of GIMS technology can

help to solve the following principal problems:
. What kinds of instruments are going to be used for conducting the so-called
ground-truth and remote-sensing measurements?
. What is the cost to be paid for on-site and remote-sensing information?
. What kind of balance is going to be taken into consideration between the
information content of on-site and remote sensing and the cost of these types
of observations?
. What kinds of mathematical models must be used for both the interpolation of
data and their extrapolation in terms of time and space with the goals to reduce
the frequency and thus the cost of the observations and to increase the reliability
of forecasting the environmental behavior of the observed items?
These and other problems can be solved by using a monitoring system based on
combining the functions of environmental data acquisition, control of the data
archives, data analysis, and forecasting the characteristics of the most important
processes in the environment. In other words, this uni®cation is the new information
technology that combines the model of the functioning of typical geoecosystems, the
computer cartography system, the means of arti®cial intelligence, and global environ-
ment observation systems. The latter results in creation of the geoinformation-
monitoring system, which is capable of solving the problem of NSS sustainable
development.
References
Aagard K. (ed.) (1998). Proceedings of the ACSYS Conference on Polar Processes and Global
Climate (Rosario, Orcas Island, WA, November 3 6, 1997). WCRP-106 (WMO/TD No.
908), Geneva. 307 pp.
Aagard K.; and Carmack E.C. (1994). The Arctic Ocean and climate: A perspective. Geophys-
ical Monograph 85, AGU, Washington, D.C., 5 20.
Abrahamson D.E. (1989). Challenge of Global Warming. Island Press, Washington, D.C.,
376 pp.
ACIA (2000). Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Implementation Plan. The Assessment Steer-
ing Committee, Alaska, Fairbanks, 35 pp.
ACIA (2001). Report from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Modeling and Scenarios
Workshop (Stockholm, Sweden, January 29 31, 2001). The ACIA Secretariat, Fairbanks,
28 pp.
ACSYS (1994). Initial Implementation Plan. WCRP-85 (WMO/TD No. 627), Geneva, Switzer-
land, 66 pp.
Adamenko V.N.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (1999). Global climate changes and their empirical
diagnostics. In: Yu.A. Izrael, G.V. Kalabin, and V.V. Nikonov (eds.), Anthropogenic
Impact on the Nature of the North and its Ecological Implications. Kola Scienti®c Center,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, pp. 17 34 [in Russian].
Agirre-Basurko E.; Ibarra-Berastegi, G.; and Madariaga I. (2006). Regression and multilayer
perception-based models to forecast hourly O3 and NO2 levels in the Bilbao area.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(4), 430 446.
Aibulatov N.A. (2000). Cold War Echo in the Russian Arctic Seas. Geos, Moscow, 307 pp. [in
Russian].
Alcamo J.; Bouwman A.; Edmonds J.; GruÈbler A.; Morita T.; and Sugandhy A. (1995). An
Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. In: J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho,
J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris, and K. Maskell (eds.),
Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC
IS92 Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 233 304.
Alcano J.; Leemans R.; and Kreileman E. (eds.) (2001). Global Change Scenarios of the 21st
Century. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 232 pp.
516 References
Alekseev G.V. (1998). Arctic climate dynamics in the global environment. World Clim. Res.
Progr./World Meteorol. Org., Geneva, 908, 11 14.
Alekseev V.V.; Kryshev I.I.; and Sazhykina T.G. (1992). Physical and Mathematical Modeling
of the Ecosystem. Hydrometeoizdat, Sankt-Petersburg, 367 pp. [in Russian].
Alessio S.; Longhetto A.; and Richiardone R. (2004). Evolutionary spectral analysis of Euro-
pean climatic series. Il Nuovo Cimento C., 27(1), 73 98.
Alexandrov G.A.; Yamagata Y.; Saigusa N.; and Oikawa T. (2005). Long-term carbon
exchange at aTakayama, Japan forest: Re-calibration of TsuBiMo with eddy-covariance
measurements at Takayama. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 134(1 4), 135 142.
Allen M. (2002). Climate of the twentieth century: Detection of change and attribution of
causes. Weather, 57(8), 296 303.
Allen M.R.; Stott P.A.; Mitchell J.F.B.; Schnur R.; and Delworth T.L. (1999). Uncertainty in
Forecasts of Anthropogenic Climate Change. RAL Techn. Rept., No. RAL-TR-084,
10 pp.
Allen M.; Raper S.; and Mitchell J. (2001). Uncertainty in the IPCC's Third Assessment
Report. Science, 293(5529), 430 433.
Alley R.B.; Marotzke J.; Nordhaus W.D.; Overpeck J.T.; Peteet D.M.; Pielke Jr. R.A.;
Pierrehumbert R.T.; Rhines P.B.; Stocker T.F.; Talley L.D.; and Wallace J.M. (2002).
Abrupt climate change. Science, 299(5615), 2005 2010.
Allison I.; Barry R.G.; and Goodison B.E. (eds.) (2001). Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)
Project Science and Co-Ordination Plan, Version 1. WCRP-114 (WMO/TD No. 1053),
Geneva, 73 pp.
Aloyan A.E. (2004). Numerical Modelling of Minor Gas Constituents and aerosols in the
atmosphere. Ecological Modelling, 179, 163 175.
Alverson K.D.; Old®eld F.; and Bradley R.S. (eds.) (2000). Past Global Changes and Their
Signi®cance for the Future. Pergamon Press, London, 479 pp.
Anderson T.L.; Charlson R.J.; Schwartz S.E.; Knutti R.; Boucher O.; Rodhe H.; and
Heintzenberg J. (2003). Climate forcing by aerosols: A hazy picture. Science, 300,
102 104.
Anderson P.; Petrino R.; Halpern P.; and Tintinalli J. (2006). The globalization of emergency
medicine and its importance for public health. Bulletin of the World Health Organization,
84(10), 835 839.
Ando K.; Matsumoto T.; Nagahama T.; Ueki I.; Takatsuki Y.; and Kuroda Y. (2005). Drift
characteristics of a moored conductivity temperature sensor and correction of salinity
data. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 22, 282 291.
Andrews M. (2004). Get healthy, get wealthy. Money, 33(12), 57 58.
Angell J.K. (1999). Comparison of surface and tropospheric temperature trends estimated
from a 63-station radiosonde network, 1958 1968. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(17),
2761 2764.
Angell J.K. (2000a). Dierence in radiosonde temperature trends for the period 1979 1998 of
MSU data and the period 1959 1998 twice as long. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(15),
2177 2180.
Angell J.K. (2000b). Tropospheric temperature variations adjusted for El NinÄo, 1958 1998.
J. Geophys. Res., 105(D9), 11841 11849.
Angione R.J.; Medeiros E.J.;and Roosen R.G. (1976). Stratospheric ozone as viewed from the
Chappuis band. Nature, 261, 289 290.
Aota M.; Shirasawa K.; Krapivin V.F; and Mkrtchyan F.A. (1992). Simulation model of the
Okhotsk Sea geoecosystem. Proceedings of the 7th Int. Symp. on Okhotsk Sea & Sea Ice
References 517
(February 2 5, 1992, Mombetsu, Japan). Okhotsk Sea & Cold Ocean Res. Assoc.,
Mombetsu, pp. 311 313.
Aota M.; Shirasawa K.; Krapivin V.F.; and Mkrtchyan F.A. (1993). A project of the Okhotsk
Sea GIMS. Proc. of the 8th Int. Sympos. on Okhotsk Sea & Sea Ice and ISY/Polar Ice
Extent Workshop (February 1 5, 1993, Mombetsu, Japan). Okhotsk Sea & Cold Ocean
Res. Assoc., Mombetsu, pp. 498 500.
APR (2006). Global Environment Facility Annual Performance Report 2006. Global Environ-
ment Facility, Washington, D.C., 89 pp.
ARCUS (1998a). Toward an Arctic System Synthesis: Results and Recommendations. Arctic
Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, Alaska, 165 pp.
ARCUS (1998b). Toward Prediction of the Arctic System: Predicting Future States of the Arctic
System on Seasonal-to-Century Time Scales by Interacting Observations, Process Research,
Modeling, and Assessment. Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks,
Alaska, 54 pp.
Arneth A.; Kurbatova J.; Kolle O.; Shibistova O.B.; Lloyd J.; Vygodskaya N.; and Schulze
E.- D. (2002). Comparative ecosystem atmosphere exchange of energy and mass in a
European Russian and a central Siberian bog, II. Interseasonal and interannual veriability
of CO2 ¯uxes. Tellus, 54B(5), 514 530.
Arrhenius S. (1896). On the in¯uence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the
ground. The London, Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of
Sciences, 41, 237 276.
Arruda W.Z.; Lentini C.A.D.; and Campos E.J.D. (2005). The use of satellite derived upper
ocean heat content to the study of climate variability in the South Atlantic. Revista
Brasileira de Cartogra®a, 57(2), 87 92.
Arutiunian V.O.; Aloyan A.E.; Chi J.; and Kuznetsov Yu.A. (2004). Numerical modeling of
regional transport of gas components taking into consideration photochemical transfor-
mation. Proceedings of RAS: Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean, 49(4), 501 513 [in
Russian].
Ashby W.R. (1956). An Introduction to Cybernetics. Chapman & Hall, London, 325 pp.
Aspinall R.; and Justice C. (2004). A Land Use and Land Cover Change Science Strategy.
Summary of a Workshop held at the Smithsonian Institution, November 19 21, 2003.
LUIWG, Washington, D.C., 20 pp.
Austin A.T.; Yahdjian L.; Stark J.M.; Belnap J.; Porporato A.; Norton U.; Ravetta D.A.; and
Schaeer S.M. (2004). Water pulses and biogeochemical cycles in arid and semiarid
ecosystems. Oecologia, 141, 221 235.
Avery G.B.; Kieber R.J.; Willey J.D.; Shank G.C.; and Whitehead R.F. (2004). Impact of
hurricanes on the ¯ux of rainwater and Cape Fear River water dissolved organic carbon to
Long Bay, southeastern United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18(GB3085),
doi:10.1029/2004GB002229.
Babu S.S.; Moorthy K.K.; and Satheesh S.K. (2004). Aerosol black carbon over Arabian
Sea during intermonsoon and summer monsoon seasons. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31(6),
LOG104/1 LOG104/5.
Bacastow R. (1981). Numerical evaluation of the evasion factor. In: Bolin B. (ed.), Carbon
Cycle Modelling, SCOPE-16. Wiley, New York, pp. 95 101.
Baker D.F.; Law R.M.; Gurney K.R.; Rayner P.; Peylin P.; Denning A.S.; Bousquet P.;
Bruhwiler L.; Chen Y.-H.; Ciais P.; Fung I.Y.;Heimann M.; John J.; Maki T.; Maksyutov
S.; Masarie K.; Prather M.; Pak B.; Taguchi S.; and Zhu Z. (2006). TransCom 3 inversion
intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of
518 References
regional CO2 ¯uxes, 1988 2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20(GB1002), doi: 10.1029/
2004GB002439.
Baltensperger U.; Barrie L.; and Wehrli C. (eds.) (2005). WMO/GAW Experts Workshop on a
Global Surface-Based Network for Long Term Observations of Column Aerosol Optical
Properties (Davos, Switzerland, March 8 10, 2004). WMO Publ., Davos, Switzerland,
148 pp.
Bampfylde C.J.; Brown N.D.; Gavaghan D.J.; and Maini P.K. (2005). Modelling rain forest
diversity: The role of competition. Ecological Modelling, 188(2 4), 253 278.
Barbieri A.F.; and Carr D.L. (2005). Gender-speci®c out-migration, deforestation and
urbanization in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Global and Planetary Change, 47(2 4), 99 110.
Bard S. (1999) Global transport of anthropogenic contaminants and the consequences for the
Arctic marine ecosystems. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 38(5), 356 379.
Barenbaum A.A. (2000). Selforganizing mechanisms in global geochemical cycle of the
substance on the Earth. Synergetics, 3, 275 295 [in Russian].
Barenbaum A.A. (2002). Galaxy, Solar System, Earth. Geos, Moscow, 392 pp. [in Russian].
Barenbaum A.A. (2004). Mechanism for the formation of oil and gas accumulations. Proceed-
ings of Russian Academy of Sciences, 399(6), 802 805 [in Russian].
Barnett T.P.; Pierce D.W.; and Schnur R. (2001). Detection of anthropogenic climate change in
the World's Oceans. Science, 292(5515), 270 274.
Barnett V. (2003). Environmental Statistics: Methods and Applications. Wiley, London, 320 pp.
Baron P.A.; and Willeke K. (2001). Aerosol Measurement: Principles, Techniques, and Applica-
tions. Wiley, Washington, D.C., 226 pp.
Barr J.G.; Fuentes J.D.; and Bottenheim J.W. (2003). Radiative forcing of phytogenic aerosols.
J. Geophys. Res., 108(D15), ACH15/1 ACH15/3.
Bartsev S.I.; Degermendzhy A.G.; and Erokhin D.V. (2003). Global generalized models of
carbon dioxide dynamics. Problems of the Environment and Natural Resources, 12, 11 28
[in Russian].
Baskent E.Z.; and Keles S. (2005). Spatial forest planning: A review. Ecological Modelling,
188(2 4), 145 173.
Bazhin N.M. (2000). Methane emission from a residual layer. Proceedings of the Second Int.
Methane Mitigation Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State
University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 231 236.
Bazilevich N.I.; and Rodin L.E. (1967). The map-schemes of productivity and of the biological
cycle of the most signi®cant types of land vegetation. Bulletin of the All-Union Geograph-
ical Society, 99(3), 190 194 [in Russian].
Bazzaz F.A. (1986). Global CO2 levels and the response of plants at the population and
community levels. In: C. Rozenzweig and R. Dickinson (eds), Climate Vegetation Inter-
actions. UCAR, Maryland, pp. 31 35.
Beever D.; Brentrup F.; Eveilard P.; Fixen P.; Heer P.; Herz B.; Larson R.; and PallieÁre C.
(2007). Sustainable Management of the Nitrogen Cycle in Agriculture and Mitigation of
Reactive Nitrogen Side Eects. IFA, Paris, 32 pp.
Bekoryukov V.I.; and Fedorov V.V. (1987). Empirical model of total ozone content above the
Southern Hemisphere. Meteorology and Hydrology (Moscow), 3, 47 53 [in Russian].
Bellman R.; and Dreyfus S. (1962). Applied Dynamic Programming. Princeton University Press,
Princeton, NJ, 457 pp.
Bellman R.E.; and Roth R.S. (1966). A technique for the analysis of a broad class of biological
systems. In: H.C. Oestreicher and D.R. Moore (eds.), Cybernetic Problems in Bionics.
Gordon & Breach, New York, pp. 725 737.
References 519
Bengtsson L. (1999). Climate modelling and prediction: Achievements and challenges. WCRP/
WMO Publ., 954, 59 73.
Berger U.; and Dameris M. (1993). Cooling of the upper atmosphere due to CO2 increases:
A model study. Ann. Geophys., 11(9), 809 819.
Beyer A.; and Matthies M. (2001). Long-range transport potential of semivolatile organic
chemicals in coupled air water systems. Environ. Sci. & Pollut. Res., 8(3), 173 179.
Bhatti J.; Lal R.; Apps M.; and Price M. (2006). Climate Change and Managed Ecosystems.
Taylor & Francis/CRC, Boca Raton, 446 pp.
Bichele I.; Moldau H.; and Ross Yu. (1980). Sub-model for the Assimilation, Distribution, and
Vegetation Growth under Condition of Water De®cit. Tartu Astrophysical Observatory,
Report A-5, Tartu, 22 pp. [in Russian].
Bjorkstrom A. (1979). A model of CO2 interaction between atmosphere, ocean and land biota.
In: Global Carbon Cycle, SCOPE-13. Wiley, New York, pp. 403 458.
Blanchard F.; and Boucher J. (2002). PreÂsence d'espeÁces tropicales de poissons dans
l'Atlantique Nord et reÂchauement climatique. French IGBP-WCRP-News Lett., 12,
3536.
Boden T.A.; Kaiser D.P.; Speranski R.J.; and Stoss F.W. (1994). TREND's 93: A compendium
of data on global change. Carbon Dioxide Informational Analysis Center, Oak Ridge Nat.
Lab., Oak Ridge, 176 pp.
Bodenbender J.; Wassmann R.; Papen H.; and Rennenberg H. (1999). Temporal and spatial
variation of sulfur gas transfer between coastal marine sediments and the atmosphere.
Atmospheric Environment, 33(21), 3487 3502.
Bodri L.; and CÏermaÂk V. (1999). Climate change of last millenium inferred from borehole
temperatures: Regional patterns of climate changes in the Czech Republic. Part III. Global
and Planet. Change, 21(4), 225 235.
Boehmer-Christiansen S.A. (1997). Who is driving climate change policy? IEA Stud. Educ., 10,
53 72.
Boehmer-Christiansen S.A. (2000). Who determines the policy concerning climate changes and
how is it done? Bulletin of the Russian Geographical Society, 132(3), 6 22 [in Russian].
Boehmer-Christiansen S.A. (2002). Keywords investing against climate change: Why failure
remains possible. Environmental Politics, 11(3), 1 30.
Boehmer-Christiansen S.A.; and Kellow A. (2002). International Environmental Policy: Inter-
ests and the Failure of the Kyoto Protocol. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, U.K., 214 pp.
Bolin B. (1999). Global environmental change and the need for international research pro-
grammes. WCRP/WMO, WMO/TD, 954, 11 14.
Bolin B. (2004). Climate and science knowledge and understanding necessary to act in uncer-
tain conditions (with the accent on reasonable and uncontradictory results). Proceedings
of the All-World Conference on Climate Change (September 29 October 3, 2003,
Moscow). Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, pp. 40 46 [in Russian].
Bolin R.; and Sukumar R. (2000). Global perspective. In: R. Watson, I.R. Noble, B. Bolin,
N.H. Ravindranath, D.J. Verardo, and D.J. Dokken (eds.), Land Use, Land-Use Change,
and Forestry. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 23 51.
Borisenkov E.P. (2003). The greenhouse eect. Problems, myths, reality. Astrakhan Herald of
Ecological Education, 1(5), 5 12 [in Russian].
Borodin L.F.; and Gordina L.I. (1983). An algorithm of randomized line-broken approxima-
tion. In: N.A. Armand (ed.), Statistical Methods for the Data Processing of Environmental
Remote Sensing. IREE Publ., Moscow, pp. 100 104 [in Russian].
Borodin L.F.; and Krapivin V.F. (1998). Remote measurements of the Earth's surface
characteristics. Problems of the Environment and Natural Resources, 7, 38 54 [in Russian].
520 References
Borodin L.F.; Valendik E.N.; and Mironov A.S. (1978). SHF-radiophysical methods and
the problems of forest and peat ®res. Radiotechnics and Electronics, 10, 1121 1129 [in
Russian].
Borodin L.F.; Krapivin V.F.; and Bui T.L. (1996). Application of GIMS-technology to
monitor the Aral Caspian aquageosystem. Problems of the Environment and Natural
Resources, 10, 46 61 [in Russian].
Bowen D.Q. (2000). Tracing climate evolution. Earth Heritage, Issue Mill., 8 9
Boysen M. (ed.) (2000). Biennial Report 1998 & 1999. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, Potsdam, 130 pp.
BP (2005). Putting Energy in the Spotlight. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London,
44 pp.
BP (2007). BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007. British Petroleum, London, 48 pp.
Bras R.L. (1990). Hydrology. Addison-Wesley, New York, 643 pp.
Brasseur G.P. (2005). Aeronomy of the Middle Atmosphere: Chemistry and Physics of the
Stratosphere and Mesosphere. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 644 pp.
Bratcher A.J.; and Giese B.S. (2002). Tropical Paci®c decadal variability and global warming.
Geophysical Research Letters, 29(19), 1918 1924.
Brenguier J.-L. (2003). Introduction to special section: An experimental study of the aerosol
indirect eect for validation of climate model parameterizations. J. Geophys. Res.,
108(D15), CMP1/1 CMP1/3.
Brenguier J.-L.; Pawlowska H.; and SchuÈller L. (2003). Cloud microphysical and radiative
properties for parameterization and satellite monitoring of the indirect eect of aerosol on
climate. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D15), CMP6/1 CMP6/14.
BreÂon F.M.; and Doutriaux-Boucher M. (2005). A comparison of cloud droplet radii measured
from space. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, 43, 1796 1805
Bricker S.B.; Clement C.G.; Pirhalla D.E.; Orlando S.P.; and Farrow D.R.G. (1999). National
Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment: Eects of Nutrient Enrichment in the Nation's
Estuaries. NOAA, National Ocean Service, Special Projects Oce and the National
Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Silver Spring, MD, 71 pp.
Broecker W.S. (2003). Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the
atmosphere? Science, 300(5625), 1519 1522.
Brooks S.D.; Garland R.M.; Wise M.E.; Prenni A.J.; Cushing M.; Hewitt E.; and Tolbert
M.A. (2003). Phase changes in internally mixed maleic acid/ammonium sulphate.
J. Geophys. Res., 108(D15), ACH23/1 ACH23/10.
Bruntland G. (ed.) (1987). Our Common Future: The World Commission on Environment and
Development. Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K., 318 pp.
Buesseler K.O.; Steinberg D.K.; Michaels A.F.; Johnson R.J.; Andrews J.E.; Valdes J.R.; and
Price J.F. (2000). A comparison of the quantity and composition of material caught in a
neutrally buoyant versus surface-tethered sediment trap. Deep-Sea Res. I, 47, 277 294.
Bui K.N. (2001). Simulation system for mesoscale hydrophysical experiments. Actual Problems
of Present Science, 3, 132 141 [in Russian].
Bui K.N.; and Ambrosimov A.K. (2001). Model of anthropogenic impacts on the ecosystem of
Vietnam's lagoons. Problems of Present Science, 3, 119 128 [in Russian].
Bukatova I.L.; Michasev Yu.I.; and Sharov A.M. (1991). Evoinformatics: Theory and Experi-
ence of Evolutionary Modeling. Science Publ., Moscow, 205 pp. [in Russian].
Bunyard P. (1999). Eradicating the Amazon rainforest will wreak havoc on climate. Ecologist,
29(2), 81 84.
Burgheimer J.; Wilske B.; Maseyk K.; Karnieli A.; Zaady E.; Yakir D.; and Kesselmeier J.
(2006). Ground and space spectral measurements for assessing the semi-arid ecosystem
References 521
phenology related to CO2 ¯uxes of biological soil crusts. Remote Sensing of Environment,
101(1), 1 12.
Busch U.; Beckmann B.-R.; and Roth R. (1998). Study of storm weather situations in observa-
tion and ECHAM3/T42 model simulation. Tellus A, 50(4), 411 423.
Byakola T. (2000). Technological options and policy measures for methane mitigation in
Uganda: Possibilities and limitations. Proceedings of the Second International Methane
Mitigation Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State University,
Novosibirsk, pp. 95 100.
Cai W.; and Whetton P. H. (2002). Evidence for a time-varying pattern of greenhouse warming
in the Paci®c Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(16), 2577 2580.
Canadel I.G.; Dickinson R.; Hibbard K.; Raupach M.; and Young O. (eds.) (2003). Global
Carbon Project: The Science Framework and Implementation, Report No. 1. Earth System
Science Partnership, Canberra, 69 pp.
CCSP (2004). Our Changing Planet: The U. S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal
Years 2004 and 2005. A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Sub-
commitee on Global Change Program, Washington, D.C., 159 pp.
Cech T.V. (2004). Principles of Water Resources: History, Development, Management, and
Policy. Wiley, Amsterdam, 480 pp.
Chahine M.T. (1992). The hydrological cycle and its in¯uence on climate. Nature (U.K.),
359(6394), 373 380.
Chamberlain J.W.; and Hunten D.M. (1986). Theory of Planetary Atmospheres: An Introduc-
tion to Their Physics and Chemistry, International Geophysics Series. Academic Press,
San Diego, 481 pp.
Chance K. (2005). Ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy and spaceborne remote sensing of the
Earth's atmosphere. Comptes Rendus Physique, 6, 836 847.
Chang C.-P.; Zhang Y.; and Li T. (2000). Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East
Asian summer monsoon and tropical Paci®c SSTs. Part 1: Roles of the subtropical ridge.
J. Climate, 13, 4310 4325.
Chapin III S.F.; Matson P.A.; and Mooney H.A. (2002). Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem
Ecology. Springer-Verlag, New York, 464 pp.
Chapman W.L.; and Walsh J.E. (1993). Recent variations of sea ice and air temperatures in
high latitudes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 74, 33 47.
Charlock T.P.; Rose F.G.; Rutan D.A.; Alberta T.L.; Kratz D.P.; Coleman L.H.; Smith G.L.;
Manalo-Smith N.; and Bess T.D. (1997). Compute Surface and Atmospheric Fluxes
(System 5.0). CERES Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, CERES Publ., Hampton,
VA, 84 pp.
Charlson R.J.; Seinfeld S.H.; Nenes A.; KuÈlmaÈlaÈ M.; Laaksonen A.; and Facchini M.C. (2001).
Reshaping the theory of cloud formation. Science, 292(5524), 2025 2026.
CheÂdin A.; Hollingsworth A.; Scott N.A.; Serrar S.; Crevoisier C.; and Armante R. (2002).
Annual and seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 , N2 O and CO concentrations
retrieved from NOAA/TOVS satellite observations. Geophys. Res. Letters, 29, 110 114.
Chen W.; Chen J.; and Cihlar J. (2000). An integrated terrestrial ecosystem carbon-budget
model based on changes in disturbance, climate, and atmospheric chemistry. Ecological
Modelling, 135(1), 55 79.
Chen Z.; Ivanov P.C.; Hu K.; and Stanley H.E. (2002). Eect of nonstationarities on detrended
¯uctuation analysis. Physical Review, E65(4), art. no. 041107.
Chen J.M.; Liu J.; Leblanc S.G.; Lacaze R.; and Roujean J.-L. (2003). Multi-angular optical
remote sensing for assessing vegetation structure and carbon absorption. Remote Sensing
of Environment, 84(4), 516 525.
522 References
Chen Z.; Hu K.; Carpena P.; Bernaola-Galvan P.; Stanley H.E.; and Ivanov P. (2005). Eect of
nonlinearities on detrended ¯uctuation analysis. Physical Review, E71, art. no. 011104.
Chiesi M.; Maselli F.; Bindi M.; Fibbi L.; Cherubini P.; Arlotta E.; Tirone G.; Matteucci G.;
and Seufert G. (2005). Modelling carbon budget of Mediterranean forests using ground
and remote measurements. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 135(1 4), 22 34.
Chin M.; Ginoux P.; Kinne S.; Holben B.N.; Duncan B.N.; Martin R.V.; Logan J.A.;
Higurashi A.; and Nakajima T. (2002). Tropospheric aerosol optical thickness from the
GOCART model and comparisons with satellite and sunphotometer measurements.
J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 461 483.
Chinlon L. (ed.) (1989). Optoelectronic Technology and Lightwave Communications Systems.
Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 766 pp.
Chock D.P.; and Winkler S.L. (2000). A trajectory grid approach for solving the condensation
and evaporation equations of aerosols. Atmospheric Environment, 34(18), 2957 2973.
Choi S.-D.; and Chang Y.-S. (2006). Carbon monoxide monitoring in Northeast Asia using
MOPITT: Eects of biomass burning and regional pollution in April 2000. Atmospheric
Environment, 40(4), 686 697.
Choi Y.; Wang Y.; Zeng T.; Martin R.V.; Kurosu T.P.; and Chance K. (2005). Evidence of
lightning Nox and convective transport of pollutants in satellite observations over North
America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(L02805), 1 5, doi:10.1029/2004GL021436.
Chou M.-D.; Chan P.K.; and Wang M. (2002). Aerosol radiative forcing derived from
SeaWiFS-retrieved aerosol optical properties. J. Atmos. Sci., 59(3), 748 757.
Christensen J.H. (1997). The Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: A three-dimensional air
pollution model used for the Arctic. Atmospheric Environment, 31(24), 4169 4191.
Christy J.R. and Spencer R.W. (2003). Reliability of satellite data sets. Science, 301(5636),
1046 1047.
Christy J.R.; Spencer R.W.; and Lobl E.S. (1998). Analysis of the merging procedure for the
MSU daily temperature time series. J. Climate, 11, 2016 2041.
Chuang Y.-L.; Oren R.; Bertozzi A.L.; Phillips N.; and Katul G.G. (2006). The porous media
model for the hydraulic system of a conifer tree: Linking sap ¯ux data to transpiration
rate. Ecological Modelling, 191(3 4), 447 468.
Chukhlantsev A.A. (2006). Microwave Radiometry of Vegetation Canopies. Springer-Verlag,
Berlin, 287 pp.
ChyÂlek P.; Henderson B.; and Mushchenko M. (2003). Aerosol radiative forcing and
the accuracy of satellite aerosol optical depth retrieval. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24),
AAC4/1 AAC4/8.
Coconea G. (2000). Methane gas emissions from the Romanian natural gas transport system.
Proceedings of the Second International Methane Mitigation Conference (June 18 23,
2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 297 302.
Cole R. (1988). Parallel merge sort. SIAM Journal on Computing, 17(4), 770 785.
Collatz G.J.; Berry J.A.; Farquhar J.A.; and Pierce J. (1990). The relationship between the
rubisco reaction mechanism and models of leaf photosynthesis. Plant Cell Environment,
13, 219 225.
Collatz G.J.; Ball G.J.; Grivet J.T.; and Berry J.A. (1991). Physiological and environmental
regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and transpiration: A model that
includes a laminar boundary layer. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 54, 107 136.
Collatz G.J.; Ribas-Carbo M.; and Berry J.A. (1992). Coupled photosynthesis stomatal
conductance model for leaves of C4 plants. Aust. J. Plant Physiol., 19, 519 538.
References 523
Collatz G.J.; Bounoua L.; Los S.O.; Rondell D.A.; Fung I.F.; and Sellers P.J. (2000).
A mechanism for the in¯uence of vegetation on the response of the diurnal temperature
range to changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(20), 3381 3384.
Collins M.; and Senior C. A. (2002). Projections of future climate change. Weather, 57(8),
283 287.
Cooper L.; and Romanovsky V. (2001). RAISE Plan focuses on ship-based research in Russia.
Witness the Arctic, 9(1), 7 8.
Corcoran P.B. (ed.) (2005). Toward a Sustainable World: The Earth Charter in Action. Royal
Tropical Institute Publ., The Netherlands, 192 pp.
Cordova A.M.; Longo K.; Freitas S.; Gatti L.V.; Artaxo P.;ProcoÂpio A.; Silva Dias M.A.F.;
and Freitas E.D. (2004). Nitrogen oxides measurements in an Amazon site and enhance-
ments associated with a cold front. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 4, 2301 2331.
Corstanje R.; and Reddy K.R. (2004). Response of Biogeochemical Indicators to a Drawdown
and Subsequent Re¯ood. J. Environ. Qual., 33, 2357 2366.
Cosca C.E.; Feely R.A.; Boutin J.; Ercheto J.; McPhaden M.J.; Chavez F.P.; and Strutton P.J.
(2003). Seasonal and interannual CO2 ¯uxes for the central and eastern equatorial Paci®c
Ocean as determined from fCO2 SST relationships. J. Geophysical Research, 108,
doi:10.1029/2000JC000677.
Cox G.W. (1985). Measurement of Species Diversity. Laboratory of General Ecology, IA/W.C.
Brown Publisher, Dubuque, pp. 163 167.
Cozzi L. (2003). World Energy Outlook Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook. IEA, Paris,
20 pp.
CRC (2005). Cooperative Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Annual Report 2004 2005. CRC
Press, Clayton Campus, Australia, 124 pp.
Crowley T.J. (2000). Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 289(5477),
270 277.
Crowley T.J.; and Kim K. (1994). Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level.
Science, 265, 1565 1568.
Cuney T.F.; Meador M.R.; Porter S.D.; and Gurtz M.E. (2000). Responses of Physical,
Chemical, and Biological Indicators of Water Quality to a Gradient of Agricultural Land
Use in the Yakima River Basin, Washington. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,
64(1), 259 270.
Dameris M.; Grewe V.; Ponater M.; Deckert R.; Eyring V.; Mager F.; Matthes S.; Schnadt C.;
Stenke A.; Steil B.; Bruhl C.; and Giorgetta M. A. (2005). Long-term changes and
variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry climate model employing realistic
forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 5, 2121 2145.
Dan L.; Ji J.; and Li Y. (2005). Climatic and biological simulations in a two-way coupled
atmosphere biosphere model (CABM). Global and Planetary Change, 47(2 4), 153 169.
Dansgaard W.; Johnsen S.J.; Clausen H.B.; Dahl-Jensen D.; Gundestrup N.S.; Hammer C.U.;
Hvidberg C.S.; Steensen J.P.; SveinbjoÈrnsdottir A.E.; Jouzel J.; and Bond G. (1993).
Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature,
364, 218 220.
Darcy H. (1856). Les fontaines publiques de la Ville de Dijon. Dalmont, Paris, 647 pp.
Davi H.; DufreÃne E.; Granier A.; Le Dantec V.; Barbaroux C.; FrancËois C.; BreÂda N.; and
Montpied P. (2005). Modelling carbon and water cycles in a beach forest. Part II:
Validation of the main processes from organ to stand scale. Ecological Modelling,
185(2 4), 387 405.
Dearden P.; and Mitchel B. (2005). Environmental Change and Challenge: A Canadian
Perspective, Second Edition. Oxford University Press, London, 512 pp.
524 References
Degermendzhy A.G. (1987). Objective laws of mixed culture formations under aquatic
ecosystem modelling (taking the example of Krasnoyarsk Reservoir). PhD dissertation
thesis, Krasnoyarsk University, 511 pp. [in Russian].
Degermendzhy A.G. (2008). New directions in biophysical ecology. In: A.P. Cracknell, V.F.
Krapivin, and C.A. Varotsos (eds.), Problems of Global Climatology and Ecodynamics.
Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., pp. 198 214.
Degermendzhy A.G.; and Bartsev S.I. (2003). Global small-scale models of dynamics and
stability of the biosphere. Problems of the Environment and Natural Resources, 7, 32 49.
Delvich K. (1972). Nitrogen cycle. In: M.S. Gilyarov (ed.), Biosphere. Mir Publ., Moscow,
pp. 105 119 [in Russian].
Delworth T.L.; and Knutson T.R. (2000). Simulation of early 20th century global warming.
Science, 287(5461), 2246 2250.
Dementjeva T.V. (2000). Emission of gases from peat-bog ecosystems. Proceedings of the
Second International Methane Mitigation Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk).
Novosibirsk State University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 223 226.
Demirchian K.S.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (1999). Scienti®c basis for predictions on the
in¯uence of energy on climate. Proceedings of Russian Academy of Sciences, Energy, 6,
3 46 [in Russian].
Demirchian K.S.; Demirchian K.K.; Danilevich Ya.B.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (2002). Global
climate warming, energetics and geopolicy. Annals of RAS, Energy, 3, 221 235 [in
Russian].
Denzer R.; Riparbelli C.; Villa M.; and GuÈttler R. (2005). Environmental knowledge and
Information Systems GIMMI: Geographic information and mathematical models
inter-operability. Environmental Modelling & Software, 20(12), 1478 1485.
De Rosnay P.; Bruen M.; and Polcher J. (2000). Sensitivity of surface ¯uxes to the number of
layers in the soil model used in GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(20), 3329 3332.
Derwent R.G.; Collins W.J.; Johnson C.E.; and Stevenson D.S. (2001). Transient behaviour of
tropospheric ozone precursors in a global 3-D CTM and their indirect greenhouse eects.
Clim. Change, 49(4), 463 487.
Dessler E.A.; and Parson E.A. (2005). The Science and Politics of Climate Change: A Guide to
the Debate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 324 pp.
Dickson R. (1999). All change in the Arctic. Nature, 397, 389 391.
Dimitroulopoulou C.; and Marsh A.R.W. (1997). Modelling studies of NO3 night-time
chemistry and its eects on subsequent ozone formation. Atmospheric Environment,
31(18), 3041 3057.
Dong L.B. (2004). The Behrens Fisher Problem: An Empirical Likelihood Approach. Econo-
metrics Working Paper EWP0404, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada, 30 pp.
DufreÃne E.; Davi H.; FrancËois C.; le Maire G.; Le Dantec V.; and Granier A. (2005). Modelling
carbon and water cycles in a beach forest. Part I: Model description and uncertainty
analysis on modelled NEE. Ecological Modelling, 185(2 4), 407 436.
Dulnev G.N.; and Ushakovskaya E.D. (1988). Analysis of the in¯uence exerted by physicogeo-
metric parameters on the temperature ®eld of an object. J. of Engineering Physics and
Thermophysics, 57(6), 1487±1492.
Dunn C.F. (2007). Biogeochemistry in Mineral Exploration. Elsevier Science, Berlin, 464 pp.
Ebel A. (2001). Evaluation and reliability of meso-scale air pollution simulations. Lect. Notes
Comput. Sc., 2179, 255 263.
Egan W.G.; Hogan A.W.; and Zhu H. (1991). Physical variation of water vapor, and the
relation with carbon dioxide. Geophys. Res. Lett., 18(12), 2245 2248.
EIA (2005). International Energy Outlook 2005. DOE/EIA-0484, Washington, D.C., 194 pp.
References 525
El-Askary M.; Sarkar S.; Kafatos M.; and El-Ghazawi T. (2003). A multisensor approach to
dust storm monitoring over the Nile Delta. IEEE Transaction on Geoscience and Remote
Sensing, 41(10), 2386 2391.
Elsaesser H.W. (2001). The Current Status of Global Warming. Marshall Institute Publ.,
Washington, D.C., 5 pp.
Enz R. (ed.) (2006). Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters: High earthquake casualties,
new dimension in windstorm losses. Sigma, 2, 1 40.
EPA (2001). Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Developed Countries: 1990 2010,
EPA- 430-R-01-007. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 132 pp.
EPA (2005). Proceedings of EPA Science Forum 2005: Collaborative Science for Environmental
Solutions (May 16 18, 2005, Washington). EPA, Washington, D.C., 162 pp.
EPA (2006). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2004, Report No.
EPA 430-R-06-002. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 459 pp.
Eriksson E. (1963). The yearly circulation of sulfur in nature. J. of Geophys. Res., 68,
4001 4007.
ESI (2005). 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index. Yale Center for Environmental Law and
Policy, New Haven, USA, 414 pp.
Essex C.; and McKitrick R. (2002). Taken by Storm: The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics
of Global Warming. Key Porter Books, Toronto, 320 pp.
Everett J.T.; and Fitzharris B.B. (eds.) (2001). The Regional Impacts of Climate Change.
Chapter 3: The Arctic and Antarctic. IPCC-2001 (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/
regional/042.htm).
Everett J.T.; Okemwa E.; Regier H.A.; Troadec J.P.; Krovnin A.; and Lluch-Belda D. (1995).
Fisheries. In: Watson R.T., Zinyowera M.C., and Moss R.H. (eds.), The IPCC Second
Assessment Report. Volume 2: Scienti®c-technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations, and
Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1 31.
Eyring V.; Harris N.R.P.; Rex M.; Shepherd T.G.; Fahey D.W.; Amanatidis G.T.; Austin J.;
Chipper®eld M.P.; Dameris M.; Forster P.M.F.; Gettelman A.; Graf H.F.; Nagashima T.;
Newman P.A.; Pawson S.; Prather M.J.; Pyle J.A.; Salawitch R.J.; Santer B.D.;
and Waugh D.W. (2005). A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled
chemistry climate models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(8), 1117.
Falkowski P.G. (1997). Evolution of nitrogen cycle and its in¯uence on the biological seques-
tration of CO2 in the ocean. Nature, 387, 272 275.
Fang J.; Chen A.; Peng C.; Zhao S.; and Ci L. (2001). Changes in forest biomass carbon storage
in China between 1949 and 1998. Science, 292, 2320 2322.
Fankhauser S. and Tol R.S.J. (1997). The social costs of climate change: The IPCC second
assessment report and beyond. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
1(4), 385 403.
FAO (2006). State of Food and Agriculture 2006: Food Aid for Food security? FAO Agriculture
Series No. 37, Rome, 180 pp.
Fasham M.J.R. (ed.) (2003). Ocean Biogeochemistry. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 283 pp.
FeczkoÂ T.; MolnaÂr AÂ.; MeÂszaÂros E.; and Major G. (2002). Regional climate forcing of aerosol
estimated by a box model for a rural site in Central Europe during summer. Atmospheric
Environment, 36, 4125 4131.
Feingold G. (2003). Modeling of the ®rst indirect eect: Analysis of measurement require-
ments. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(19), ASC7/1 ASC7/4.
Feingold G.; Eberhard W.L.; Veron D.E.; and Previdi M. (2003). First measurements of the
Twomey indirect eect using ground-based remote sensors. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(6),
20/1 20/4.
526 References
Felzer B.; Kicklighter D.W.; Melillo J.M.; Wang C.; Zhuang Q.; and Prinn R. (2004). Eects of
Ozone on Net Primary Production and Carbon Sequestration in the Conterminous United
States using a Biogeochemistry Model. Tellus, 56B, 230 248.
Fenoglio S.; Badino G.; and Bona F. (2002). Benthic macroinvertebrate communities as
indicators of river environment quality. Revista de BiologõÂa Tropical, 50(3 4), 1125 1131.
Fiebig M.; Petzold A.; Wandlinger U.; Wendisch M.; Kiemle C.; Stifter A.; Ebert M.; Rother
T.; and Leiterer U. (2002). Optical closure for an aerosol column: Method, accuracy, and
inferable properties applied to a biomass-burning aerosol and its radiative forcing.
J. Geophys. Res., 107(D21), LAC11/1 LAC11/13.
Field C.B.; and Raupach M.R. (eds.) (2004). Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans,
Climate, and the Natural World. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 584 pp.
Field J.G.; Hempel G.; and Summerhayer C.P. (eds.) (2002). Oceans 2020: Science Trends and
the Challenge of Sustainability. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 296 pp.
Fierer N.; Allen A.S.; Schimel J.P.; and Holden P.A. (2003). Controls on microbial CO2
production in surface and subsurface soil horizons. Global Change Biology, 9, 1322 1332.
Filatov N.N. (2004). Climate of Karelia: Changeability and In¯uence on Water Objects and
Reservoirs. Karelian Scienti®c Center of RAS, Petrozavodsk, 224 pp. [in Russian].
Fitzwater S.E.; Johnson K.S.; Elrod V.A.; Ryan J.P.; Colletti L.J.; Tanner S.J.; Gordon R.M.;
and Chavez F.P. (2003). Iron, nutrient and phytoplankton biomass relationships in
upwelling waters of the California coasts system. Continental Shelf Research, 23,
1523 1544.
Folland C.; Frich P.; Basnett T.; Rayner N.; Parker D.; and Horton B. (2000). Uncertainties in
climate datasets: A challenge for WMO. WMO Bull., 49(1), 59 68.
Folland C.K.; Karl T.R.; and Salinger M.J. (2002). Observed climate variability and change.
Weather, 57(3), 269 278.
Follows M.J.; Ito T.; and Dutkiewicz S. (2006). On the solution of the carbonate chemistry
system in ocean biogeochemistry models. Ocean Modelling, 12(3 4), 290 301.
Fortmann M. (2004). Zum Ein¯uss troposphaÈrischer Aerosole auf das Klima der Arktis. Ber.
Polar- und Meeresforsch., 486(I II), 1 142.
Fourie G.; Djolov G.; Syrakov D.; Pienaar K.; and Prodanova M. (2004). Modelling long-
range transport and chemical transformation of pollutants in the Southern Africa region.
Proceedings of Ninth International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric
Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes (June 1 4, 2004, Garmisch-Partenkirchen,
Germany), pp. 320 324.
Fox J. (2001). Chomsky and Globalization. Icon Books, London, 80 pp.
Franzen L.G.; Mattson J.O.; Martensson U.; NihleÂn T.; and Rapp A. (1994). Yellow snow
over the Alps and Subarctic from dust storm in Africa, March 1991. Ambio, 23(3),
233 235.
Frederick K.D. (1994). Integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural
resources: An Introductory essay. Clim. Change, 28(102), 1 14.
Freitas S.R.; Longo K.M.; Silva Dias M.A.F.; Silva Dias P.L.; Chat®eld R.; Prins E.; Artaxo
P.; Grell G.A.; and Recuero F.S. (2005). Monitoring the transport of biomass burning
emissions in South America. Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 5(1 2), 135 167.
Friedrich R. (ed.) (2001). Generation and Evaluation of Emission Data. GENEMIS Annual
Report 2001, Stuttgart, Germany, 87 pp.
From the Candidates (2000). Gore and Bush address key environmental issues. Resources, Fall,
Issue 141, Washington, D.C., pp. 5 8.
References 527
Fung I.; John J.; Lerner J.; Matthews E.; Prather M.; Steele L.P.; and Fraser P.J. (1991). Three-
dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. J. Geophys. Res., 96,
13033 13065.
Galbraith D.; Smith P.; Mortimer N.; Stewart R.; Hobson M.; McPherson G.; Matthews R.;
Mitchell P.; Nijnik M.; Norris J.; Skiba U.; Smith J.;and Towers W. (2006). Review of
Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Emissions, Air Pollution Impacts and Economics of Biomass
Production and Consumption in Scotland. Environmental Research Report 2006/02,
Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Aairs Department, Edindurgh, 267 pp.
Gale J.; and Freund P. (2000). Reducing methane emissions to combat global climate change:
The role Russia can play. Proceedings of the Second International Methane Mitigation
Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State University Publ.,
Galeano E. (1997). Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent.
Monthly Review Press, New York, 360 pp.
Garcia S.M.; and Grainger R.J.R. (2005). Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture
®sheries. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London B Biological Science, 360(1453),
21±46.
Garcia-BarroÂn L.; and Pita M. F. (2004). Stochastic analysis of time series of temperatures in
the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula. AtmoÂsfera, 17(4), 225 244.
Gedney N.; and Valdes P. J. (2000). The eect of Amazonian deforestation on the northern
hemisphere circulation and climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(19), 3053 3056.
GEF (1998). Caspian Ecological Programme. UNDP Publ., Baku, Azerbaijan, 74 pp.
Gelchu A.; and Pauly D. (2007). Growth and distribution of port-based global ®shing eort
within countries' EEZs from 1970 to 1995. Fisheries Center Research Reports, University of
British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 15(4), 1 105.
GEO (2005). Work Plan for 2006, Version 2. Group on Earth Observations, Cover
Memorandum, November 28, 2005, Geneva, 38 pp.
Gillett N.P.; Allen M.R.; McDonald R.E.; Senior G.A.; Shindell D.T.; and Schmidt G.A.
(2002). How linear is the Arctic Oscillation response to greenhouse gases? J. Geophys.
Res., 107(D3), ACL1/1 ACL1/7.
Ginoux P.; Prospero J.; and Torres O. (2002). Long-term simulation of dust distribution with
the GOCART model: Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: J.A. Lee and
T.M. Zobeck (eds.), Proceedings of ICAR5/GCTE-SEN Joint Conference. International
Center for Arid and Semiarid Lands Studies, Texas Tech. University, Lubbock, Texas,
pp. 241 245.
Giorgi F.; Bi X.; and Qian Y. (2003). Indirect and direct eects of anthropogenic sulfate on the
climate of East Asia as simulated with a regional coupled climate-chemistry/aerosol
model. Climatic Change, 58, 345 376.
Girnis P.R.; Orphan V.J.; Hallam S.J.; and DeLong E.F. (2003). Growth and methane
oxidation rates of anaerobic methanotrophic archaea in a continuous-¯ow bioreactor.
Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 69, 5472 5482.
Gloersen P.; Parkinson C.L.; Cavalieri D.J.; Comiso J.C.; and Zwally H.J. (1999). Spatial
distribution of trends and seasonality in the hemispheric ice covers: 1978 1996.
J. Geophys. Res., 104(C9), 20827 20835.
Goldammer J.G.; and Furyaev V.V. (1996). Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia. Kluwer
Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 390 pp.
Goldman H.V. (ed.) (1999). Proceedings of the International Symposium on Polar Aspects of
Global Change (Trùmso, Norway, August 24 28, 1998). Polar Research, 18(2), 1 404.
528 References
Gong S.L.; and Barrie L.A. (2003). Simulating the impact of sea salt on global nss sulphate
aerosol. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D16), AAC4/1 AAC4/18.
Goodhand J. (1999). From wars to complex political emergencies: Understanding con¯ict and
peace-building in the new world disorder. Third World Quarterly, 20(1), 13 26.
Goody R.; Anderson J.; and North G. (1998). Testing climate models: An approach. Bull. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2541 2549.
Goody R.; Anderson J.; Karl T.; Miller R.; North G.; Simpson J.; Stephens C.; and
Washington W. (2001). Why monitor the climate? Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 83(6),
873 878.
GOOS (2002). Joint GCOS GOOS WCRP Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (OOPC)
(Sixth Session, May 2 5, 2001, Melbourne, Australia). IOC, Paris, 61 pp.
Gordeev V.V.; Gulidov A.V.; Holms P.; and Peterson B. (2000). River out¯ow of nutrients to
Russian Arctic: Achievements and Problems. Proceedings of the Second Conference:
Ecology of Siberian River Basins and the Arctic' (November 24 26, 2000, Tomsk),
Gorshkov V.G. (1990). Biosphere Energetics and Environment Stability. ARISTI Publ.,
Moscow, 238 pp. [in Russian].
Gorshkov V.G.; Gorshkov V.V.; and Makarieva A.M. (2000). Biotic Regulation of the
Environment: Key Issues of Global Change. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 367 pp.
Goudrian J.; van Keulen H.; and van Laar H.H. (eds.) (1990). The Greenhouse Eect and
Primary Productivity in European Agro-ecosystems. Pudoc, Wageningen, 90 pp.
Govindan R.B.; Vyushin D.; Bunde A.; Brenner S.; Havlin S.; and Schellnhuber H.J. (2002).
Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability. Physical
Review Letters, 89(2), art. no. 028501.
Grankov A.G.; Krapivin V.F.; and Soldatov V.Yu. (2006). Diagnostics of the tropical
hurricane beginning in the ocean basing on the monitoring data and mathematical model.
Proceedings of the International Symposium on Ecoinformatics Problems (Moscow,
December 5 7, 2006). IREE Publ., Moscow, pp. 5 14 [in Russian].
Grant R.F.; Arain A.; Arora V.; Barr A.; Black T.A.; Chen J.; Wang S.; Yuan F.; and Zhang
Y. (2005). Intercomparison of techniques to model high temperature eects on CO2 and
energy exchange in temperate and boreal coniferous forests. Ecological Modelling,
188(2 4), 217 252.
Grassl H. (2000). Status and improvements of coupled general circulation models. Science, 288,
1991 1997.
Grebmeier J.M.; Whitledge T.E.; Aagaard K.; Bergmann M.; Carmack E.C.; Codispoti L.A.;
Darby D.; Dunton K.H.; Melnikov I.A.; Moore S.; Takizawa T.; Walsh J.J.; Wassman P.;
and Wheeler P. (eds.) (2001). Arctic System Science Ocean Atmosphere Ice Interactions:
Western Arctic Shelf Basin Interactions (SBI). Phase II Field Implementation Plan, SBI
Project Oce, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, 30 pp.
Grebmeier J.M.; DiTullio G.R.; Barray J.P.; and Cooper L.W. (2003). Benthic carbon cycling
in the Ross Sea polynya, Antarctica: Benthic community metabolism and sediment
tracers. Antarctic Research Series, 78, 301 326.
Grin D.W.; Kellogg C.A.; and Shinn E.A. (2001). Dust in the wind: Long range transport of
dust in the atmosphere and its implications for global public and ecosystem health. Global
Change and Human Health, 2(1), 20 33.
Griggs D.J.; and Noguer M. (2002). Climate Change 2001: The Scienti®c Basis. Contribution
of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Weather, 57(8), 267 269.
References 529
Grigoryev Al.A.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (2001a). Ecological Disasters. St. Petersburg State
University Publ., St. Petersburg, 691 pp. [in Russian].
Grigoryev Al.A.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (2001b). Ecological Catastrophes. St. Petersburg State
Grigoryev Al.A.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (2001c). Ecodynamics and Geopolitics: Ecological
Catastrophes, Vol. 2. St. Petersburg State University Publ., St. Petersburg, 688 pp. [in
Russian].
Grytsai A.; Grytsai Z.; Evtushevsky A.; and Milinevsky G. (2005). Interannual variability of
planetary waves in the ozone layer at 65 degrees S. Int. J Remote Sens., 26(16), 3377 3387.
Guerschman J.P.; and Paruelo J.M. (2005). Agricultural impacts on ecosystem functioning in
temperate areas of North and South America. Global and Planetary Change, 47(2 4),
170 180.
Gulyaev Yu.V.; Krapivin V.F.; and Bukatova I.L. (1987). On the way to evolutionary
informatics. Herald of Soviet Academy of Sciences, 11, 53 61 [in Russian].
Gulyaev Yu.V.; Bukatova I.L.; and Krapivin V.F. (1989a). Evolutionary computer technol-
ogy. In: E.P. Novitchikhin (ed.), Methods of Informatics in Radiophysical Investigations of
the Environment. Science Publ., Moscow, pp. 25 43 [in Russian].
Gulyaev Yu.V.; Bukatova I.L.; Golubeva L.N.; and Krapivin V.F. (1989b). Evolutionary
informatics and `ìntellectual'' special processors. Institute of Radioengineering and Elec-
tronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Report No. 6(507), Moscow, 39 pp. [in Russian].
Gulyaev Yu.V.; Rogalsky V.I.; Krapivin V.F.; Novitchikhin E.P.; and Yushkov V.P. (1991).
Mathematical Modeling of Natural Objects in Global Space System of Ecological Con-
trol. Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Report
No. 2(553), Moscow, 33 pp. [in Russian].
Gyalistras D. (2002). How uncertain are regional climate change scenarios? Examples for
Europe and the Alps. PIK Report No. 75, Potsdam, pp. 85 100.
Haigh J.D. (2001). Climate variability and the in¯uence of the Sun. Science, 294(5549),
2109 2111.
Han Z.; Ueda H.; and Sakurai T. (2006). Model study on acidifying wet deposition in East Asia
during wintertime. Atmospheric Environment, 40(13), 2360 2373.
Hansen J.; Sato M.; Lacis A.; Ruedy R.; Tegen L.; and Matthews E. (1998). Climate forcing in
the Industrial era. Proc. U.S. National Acad. Sci., 95(22), 12753 12758.
Hansen J.; Ruedy R.; Glascoe J.; and Sato M. (1999). GISS analysis of surface temperature
change. J. Geophys. Res., 104(D24), 30997 31022.
Hansen J.; Sato M.; Ruedy R.; Lacis A.; and Oinas V. (2000). Global warming in the twenty-
®rst century: An alternative scenario. Proc. U.S. National Acad. Sci., 97(18), 9875 9880.
Hansen J.; Sato M.; Nazarenko L.; Ruedy R.; Laws A.; Koch D.; Tegen I.; Hall T.; Shindell
D.; Santer B.; Stone P.; Novakov T.; Thomason L.; Wang R.; Wang Y.; Jacob D.;
Hollandsworth S.; Bishop L.; Logan J.; Thompson A.; Stolarski R.; Lean J.; Willson
R.;Levitus S.; Antonov J.; Rayner R.; Parker D.; and Christy J. (2002). Climate forcings in
Goddard Institute for Space Studies S1 2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D18),
ACL2/1 ACL2/37.
Hanshaw M.N.; Lozier M.S.; and Palter J.B. (2006). The Integrated Impact of Tropical
Cyclones on Sea Surface Chlorophyll in the North Atlantic. American Geophysical Union,
Fall Meeting 2006, abstract dA13A 0878, Washington, 2006AGUFM.A13A0878H.
Hanson B. (2005). Learning from natural disasters. Science, 308, 1125.
Hardy J.T. (2003). Climate Change. Wiley, Washington, D.C., 260 pp.
530 References
Hargrove W.W.; Homan F.M.; and Law B.E. (2003). New Analysis Reveals Representative-
ness of AmeriFlux Network. Earth Observing System Transactions, American Geophysical
Union, 84(48), 529 535.
Harries J.E.; Russel J.E.; Hana®n J.A.; Brindley H.; Futyan J.; Rufus J.; Kellock S.; Matthews
G.; Wrigley R.; Last A.; Mueller J.; Mossavati R.; Ashmall J.; Sawyer E., Parker D.;
Caldwell M.; Allan P.M.; Smith A.; Bates M.J.; Coan B.; Stewart B.C.; Lepine D.R.;
Cornwall L.A.; Corney D.R.; Ricketts M.J.; Drummond D.; Smart D.; Cutler R.; Dewitte
S.; Clerbaux N.; Gonzalez L.; Ipe A., Bertrand C.; Jouko A.; Crommelynck D.; Nelms
N.; Llewellyn-Jones D.T.; Butcher G.; Smith G.L.; Szewczyk Z.P.; Mlynczak P.E.; Slingo
A.; Allan R.P.; and Ringer M.A. (2005). The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget
Project. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 86(7), 945 960.
Harrison J.A.; Matson P.A.; and Fendorf S. (2005). Eects of a diel oxygen cycle on nitrogen
transformations and greenhouse gas emission in a eutrophied, subtropical stream. Aquatic
Sciences, 67, 308 315.
Haszpra L.; Barcza Z.; Davis K.J.; and Tarczay K. (2005). Long term tall tower carbon
dioxide ¯ux monitoring over an area of mixed vegetation. Agricultural and Forest Meteor-
ology, 132(1 2), 58 77.
Hattas D.; Stock W.D.; Mabusela W.T.; and Green I.R. (2005). Phytochemical changes in
leaves of subtropical grasses and fynbos shrubs at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentra-
tions. Global and Planetary Change, 47(2 4), 181 192.
Hays M.D., Fine P.M., Geron C.D., Kleeman M.J., and Gullett B.K. (2005). Open burning
of agricultural biomass: Physical and chemical properties of particle-phase emissions.
Heer P.; and Prud'homme M. (2006). Medium-term Outlook for Global Fertilizer Demand,
Supply and Trade, 2006 2010, Summary Report. International Fertilizer Industry
Association, Paris, 9 pp.
Hein R.; Dameris M.; Schnadt C.; Land C.; Grewe V.; Kohler I.; Ponater M.; Sausen R.; Steil
B.; Landgraf J.; and Bruhl C. (2001). Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric
chemistry general circulation model: Comparison with observations. Ann. Geophysicae,
19(4), 435 457.
Heinrich H. (1988). Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the northeast Atlantic
Ocean during the past 130,000 years. Quat. Res., 29, 142 152.
Heinrich M.; and Hinzpeter H. (1975). Radiation balance and albedo in the tropical Atlantic
during ATEX 1969. Meteorologie und Aeronomie, 8, 56 64.
Hellebrandt H.J.; Kern J.; and Scholz V. (2003). Long-term studies on greenhouse gas ¯uxes
during cultivation of energy crops on sandy soils. Atmospheric Environment, 37(12),
1635 1644.
Henderson B.; and ChyÂlek P. (2005). The eect of spatial resolution on satellite aerosol optical
depth retrieval. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 43(9), 1984 1990.
Holland D.M. (2001). Explaining the Weddell Polynya: A large ocean eddy shed at Maud Rise.
Science, 292, 1697 1700.
Holland G.; and Nowlin W. (eds.) (2001). Principles of the Global Ocean Observing System
(GOOS) Capacity Building, GOOS Report No. 69. UNESCO, IOC, Paris, 23 pp.
Holloway G.; and Sou T. (2001). Is Arctic sea ice rapidly thinning? Ice and Climate News, 1,
2 5.
Hopkin M. (2007). Climate change 2007: Climate sceptics switch focus to economics. Nature,
445, 582 583.
Horton K.E. (1937). Determination of in®ltration capacity for larger drainage basins. Transac-
tions American Geophysical Union, 18, 371±385.
References 531
Hoskins B.J. (2003). Climate change at cruising altitude? Science, 301, 469 470.
Houghton J.T. (2001a). Global climate and human activities. EOLSS Article, 1 2, 1 13.
Houghton J.T. (2001b). The IPCC Report 2001. Proceedings of the First Solar and Space
Weather Euroconference: The Solar Cycle and Terrectrial Climate (Santa Cruz de Tenerife,
September 25 29, 2000). ESA SP, Noordwijk, 463, pp. 255 259.
Houghton J.T. (2003). Global warming is now a weapon of mass destruction. The Guardian,
Monday July 28.
Houghton J.T.; Jenkins G.J.; and Ephraums J.J. (eds.) (1990). Scienti®c Assessment of Climate
change: Report of Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.,
365 pp.
Houghton J.T.; Ding Y.; Griggs D.J.; and Noguer M. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The
Scienti®c Basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel Group on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press,
Cambridge, U.K. 892 pp.
Howarth R.W.; Stewart J.W.B.; and Ivanov M.V. (eds.). (1992). Sulphur Cycling on the
Continents: Wetlands, Terrestrial Ecosystems, and Associated Water Bodies. Wiley,
Chichester, U.K., 372 pp.
Hu K.; Ivanov P.C.; Chen Z.; Carpena P.; and Stanley H.E. (2001). Eect of trends on
detrended ¯uctuation analysis. Physical Review, E64(1), art. no. 011114.
Huang S.; Pollack H.N.; and Shen P.-Y. (2000). Temperature trends over the past ®ve centuries
reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature, 403, 756 758.
Hubbard K.G.; and Lin X. (2002). Realtime data ®ltering models for air temperature measure-
ments. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), 67/1 67/4.
Hughes T.P.; Baird A.H.; Bellwood D.R.; Card M.; Connoly S.R.; Folke C.; Grosberg R.;
Hoegh-Gulberg O.; Jackson J.B.C.; Kleypas J.; Lough J.M.; Marshall P.; MystroÈm M.;
Palumbi S.R.; Pandol® J.M.; and Rosen B.J. (2003). Climate change, human impacts, and
the resilience of coral reefs. Science, 301, 529 533.
Hulme M.; Barrow E.M.; Arnell N.W.; Harrison P.A.; Johns T.C.; and Downing T.E. (1999).
Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and climate variability. Nature, 397,
689 691.
Hurrell J.W. (2005). The North Atlantic Oscillation: Encyclopedia of World Climatology. In:
J.E. Oliver (ed.), Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 536 539.
Hurrell J.W.; and Dickson R.R. (2004). Climate variability over the North Atlantic. In: N.C.
Stenseth, G. Ottersen, J.W. Hurrell, A. Belgrano, and B. Planque (eds.), Ecological Eects
of Climatic Variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Oxford University Press, Oxford,
pp. 254 261.
Hurrell J.W.; Kushnir Y.; Visbeck M.; and Ottersen G. (2003). The North Atlantic Oscillation:
Climate signi®cance and environmental impacts. In: J.W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Otter-
sen, and M. Visbeck (eds.), An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophysical
Monograph Series. American Geophysical Union, Washington, 134, 1 35.
IASC (2001). The International Arctic Science Committee Project Catalogue. IASC, Oslo, 57 pp.
Ichikawa A. (2004). Global Warming: The Research Challenges, a report of Japan's Global
Warming Initiative. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 161 pp.
Ichii K.; Hashimoto H.; Nemani R.; and White M. (2005). Modeling the interannual variability
and trends in gross and net primary productivity of tropical forests from 1982 to 1999.
Global and Planetary Change, 48(4), 274 286.
IEA (2002). Energy Policies of IEA Countries. OECD/IEA, Paris, 137 pp.
IEA (2005a). Energy Policies of IEA Countries. IEA Books, Paris, 588 pp.
IEA (2005b). Key World Energy Statistics. IEA Books, Paris, 82 pp.
532 References
IEA (2005c). World Energy Outlook: Middle East and North Africa Insights. IEA Books, Paris,
600 pp.
IEA (2006). Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. IEA Books,
Paris, 484 pp.
IEA (2007a). Energy Balances on Non-OECD Countries, 2004 2005. IEA Books, Paris, 482 pp.
IEA (2007b). Key World Energy Statistics. IEA Books, Paris, 82 pp.
IGOS (2001). An Ocean Theme for the IGOS Partnership, Final Report from the Ocean Theme
Team. NASA, Washington, D.C., 40 pp.
IGOS (2004). Report of the IGOS International Workshop: Towards the Implementation of the
Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) (February 4 6, 2004, Tokyo). JAXA,
Tokyo, 18 pp.
Inomata Y.; Iwasaka Y.; Osada K.; Hayashi M.; Mori I.; Kido M.; Hara K.; and Sakai T.
(2006). Vertical distributions of particles and sulphur gases (volatile sulfur compounds
and SO2 ) over East Asia: Comparison with two aircraft-borne measurements under the
Asian continental out¯ow in spring and winter. Atmospheric Environment, 40(3), 430 444.
Inoue M.; and Isozaki H. (2003). People and Forest: Policy and Local Reality in Southern Asia,
the Russian Far East, and Japan. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 376 pp.
IPCC (1996). Climate Change 1995: Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, 879 pp.
IPCC (2000). Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry: Summary for Policymakers. IPCC
Special Report, Montreal, Canada, 30 pp.
IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 881 pp.
IPCC (2003). Report on Expert Workshop on Mitigation and Adaptation. IPCC, Geneva, 11 pp.
IPCC (2005). Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, Final Draft. IPCC,
London, 571 pp.
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. 10th Session of Working
Group 1 of the IPCC, Paris, 18 pp.
Ito A.; and Oikawa T. (2002). A simulation model of the carbon cycle in land ecosystems
(Sim- CYCLE): A description based on dry-matter production theory and plot scale
validation. Ecological Modelling, 151, 143 176.
Ito A.; Saigusa N.; Murayama S.; and Yamamoto S. (2005). Long-term carbon exchange at a
Takayama, Japan forest. Modeling of gross and net carbon dioxide exchange over a cool-
temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest in Japan: Analysis of seasonal and interannual
change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 134(1 4), 122 134.
Ivachnenko A.G.; Krotov G.I.; and Cheberkus V.I. (1980). Multi-row algorithm of long-term
prediction of self-organization. Automatics (Kiev), 4, 28 47 [in Ukrainian].
Ivachnenko A.G.; Peka P.Yu.; and Vostrov N.N. (1984). Combined Method for Water and Oil
Field Modeling. Naukova Dumka, Kiev, Ukraine, 150 pp. [in Russian].
Ivanov A. (1978). An Introduction to Oceanography. Mir, Moscow, 392 pp. [in Russian].
Izrael Yu.A.; Gruza G.V.; Semenov S.M.; Nazarov I.M.; and Kvasnikova E.V. (eds.) (2004).
All-World Conference on Climate Change (September 29 October 3, 2003, Moscow).
Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, 620 pp. [in Russian].
Jackson P. (1999). Introduction to Expert Systems. Addison-Wesley, London, 560 pp.
Jacobson M.Z. (2002a). Atmospheric Pollution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.,
412 pp.
References 533
Jacobson M.Z. (2002b). Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter,
possibly the most eective method of slowing global warming. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D19),
4410, doi:10.1029/2001JD002044.
JaegleÂ L.; Martin R.V.; Chance K.; Steinberger L.; Kurosu T.P.; Jacob D.J.; Modi A.I.;
Yoboue V.; Sigha-Nkamdjou L.; and Galy-Lacaux C. (2004). Satellite mapping of
rain-induced nitric oxide emissions from soils. J. Geophys. Res., 109(D21310), 1 10,
doi:10.1029/2004JD004787.
JaegleÂ L.; Steinberger L.; Martin R.V.; and Chance K. (2005). Global partitioning of NOx
sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass
burning and soil emissions. Faraday Discuss., 130, 407 423, doi:10.1039/b502128f.
Jagovkina S.V.; Karol I.L.; Zubov V.A.; Lagun V.E.; Reshemikov A.I.; and Rosanov E.V.
(2000). An estimation of the gas deposits leakage input into the total methane ¯ux from
the West Siberian region. Proceedings of the Second International Methane Mitigation
Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State University Publ.,
Jassal R.; Black A.; Novak M.; Morgenstern K.; Nesic Z.; and Gaumont-Guay D. (2005).
Relationship between soil CO2 concentrations and forest-¯oor CO2 euxes. Agricultural
and Forest Meteorology, 130(3 4), 176 192.
Jaworowski Z. (1999). The global warming folly. 21st Century Science and Technology, 12(4),
64 75.
Jiang C.; Cronin M.F.; Kelly K.A.; and Thompson L. (2005). Evaluation of a hybrid satellite-
and NWP-based turbulent heat ¯ux product using Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO)
buoys. J. Geophys. Res., 110(C9), C09007, doi:10.1029/2004JC002824.
Johannessen O.M.; Bjorgo E.; and Miles M.W. (1996). Global Warming and the Arctic
(Letter). Science, 271, 129.
Johnson D.E.; and Ulyatt M.I. (2000). Variations in the proportion of methane of total
greenhouse gas emissions from US and NZ dairy production systems. Proceedings of
the Second International Methane Mitigation Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk).
Novosibirsk State University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 249 254.
Johnson C.E.; Stevenson D.S.; Collins W.J.; and Derwent R.G. (2002). Interannual variability
in methane growth rate simulated with a coupled Ocean Atmosphere Chemistry model.
Geophysical Research Letters, 29(19), 1 4.
Johnson B.T.; Shine K.P.; and Forster P.M. (2004). The semi-direct aerosol eect: Impact of
absorbing aerosols on marine stratocumulus. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, Part B,
No. 599, 1407 1422.
Jones P.D.; New M.; Parker D.E.; Martin S.; and Rigor I.G. (1999). Surface air temperature
and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics, 37, 173 199.
Jones S.K.; Rees R.M.; Skiba U.M.; and Ball B.C. (2005). Greenhouse gas emissions from a
managed grassland. Global and Planetary Change, 47(2 4), 201 211.
Kaiser J. (2000). Global warming, insects take the stage at snowbird. Science, 289(5487),
2031 2032.
Kalabin G.V. (2000). Ecodynamics of the Anthropogenic Environment: Province of the North.
Kola Sci. Center, Russian Acad. Sci., Apatity, 294 pp. [in Russian].
Kalb D.; Pansters W.; and Siebers H. (2004). Globaliszation and Development: Themes and
Concepts in Current Research. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 203 pp.
Kantelhardt J.W.; Zschiegner S.A.; Koscielny-Bunde E.; Havlin S.; Bunde A.; and Stanley
H.E. (2002). Multifractal detrended ¯uctuation analysis of nonstationary time series.
Physica, A316(14), 87 114.
534 References
Karibaeva K.N.; Esekin B.K.; Kurochkina L.Ya.; Losev K.S.; Makarieva A.M.; Gorshkov
V.G.; and Shukurov E.D. (2004). Scienti®c basis of strategic directions in nature-defense
politics. Ecology and Education, 1 2, 2 9 [in Russian].
Karimov G.U.; and Chukanin K.I. (1988). Scheme for pollution transport to the Arctic
troposphere. In: K.Ya. Kondratyev (ed.), Monitoring the Arctic Climate. Hydro-
meteoizdat, St. Petersburg, pp. 168 180 [in Russian].
Karl T.R. (1998). Regional Trends and Variations of Temperature and Precipitation. In: R.T.
Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 87 119.
Karl T.; and Gleckler P. J. (2001). Tracking changes in AMIP model performance. Abstracts of
Eighth Sci. Assembly of IAMAS (Innsbruck, July 10 18, 2001), pp. 8 9.
Karley M.J.; Beven K.J.; and Oliver H.R. (1993). A method for predicting spatial distribution
of evaporation using simple meteorological data. Proceedings of Int. Symposium: Ech.
Proc. Land Surf. Range Space and Time Scales (Yokohama, July 13 16, 1993). IAHS
Publ., 212, 619 626.
Karol 0 I. L. (2000). Impact of the ¯ights of world transport aircraft on the ozonosphere and
climate. Meteorology and Hydrology, 7, 17 32 [in Russian].
Kazansky A.V.; and Filatov S.V. (1987). Investigation of Two Ways for the Determination of
Surface Ocean Temperature by Means of Distribution of Satellite Measurements in the IR
Range. Institute of Automatics and Management Processes, Far East Branch of Russian
Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok, 22 pp. [in Russian].
Keeling C.D.; and Bacastow R.B. (1977). Impact of industrial gases on climate. In: R.R.
Revelle (ed.), Energy and Climate. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.,
72 95.
Keeling C.D.; and Whorf T.P. (2005). Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air
sampling network. In: D.P. Boden, R.J. Kaiser, and F.W. Stoss (eds.), Trends: A Com-
pendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (http://
cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio mlo.htm).
Keeling R.F.; and Visbeck M. (2001). Antarctic strati®cation and glacial CO2 . Nature,
412(6847), 605 606.
Kelley J.J. (1987). Carbon dioxide in the Arctic environment. Journal of Earth Sci., 35(2),
341 354.
Kelley J.J.; and Gosink T. (1992). The Arctic Environment: Air/Sea/Land Exchange of Trace
Gases. Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Report No. CP 92-7, Dec. 1992, 29 pp.
Kelley J.J.; Rochon G.L.; Novoselova O.A.; Krapivin V.F.; and Mkrtchyan F.A. (1992).
Toward the global geo-eco-information monitoring. Proceedings of the First International
Symposium: Ecoinformatics Problems (December 14 18, 1992, Moscow). IREE Publ.,
Moscow, pp. 3 7.
Kelley J.J.; Krapivin V.F.; and Popovich P.R. (1999). The problems in Arctic environment
monitoring. Problems of the Environment and Natural Resources, 6, 32 40 [in Russian].
Kemball-Cook S., Wang B.; and Fu X. (2002). Simulation of the intraseasonal oscillation in
the ECHAM-4 model: The impact of coupling with an ocean model. Journal of the
Atmospheric Sciences, 59(9), 1433 1453.
Keppler F.; Hamilton J.T.G.; Bra M.; and RoÈckmann T. (2006). Methane emissions from
terrestrial plants under aerobic conditions. Nature, 439, 187 191.
Kerr R.A. (2001a). Rising global temperature, rising uncertainty. Science, 292(5515), 192 194.
Kerr R.A. (2001b). World starts taming the greenhouse. Science, 293(5530), 583.
References 535
Khalil M.A.K.; Rasmussen R.A.; Ren L.; Wang M.X.; Shearer M.J.; Dalluge R.W.; and Duan
C.-L. (2000). Methane emissions from rice ®elds. Proceedings of the Second International
Methane Mitigation Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State
University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 13 30.
Khandekar M.L.; Murty T.S.; and Chittibabu P. (2005). The Global Warming Debate:
A Review of the State of Science. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162(8 9), 1557 1586.
Kim W.; Arai T.; Kanae S.; Oki T.; and Musiake K. (2001). Application of the Simple
Biosphere Model (SiB2) to a paddy ®eld for a period of growing season in GAME-
Tropics. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jap., 79(18), 387 400.
Kiseleva S.V. (1990). Investigation of CO2 transfer processes under dierent states of the
water air boundary. PhD thesis, Moscow State University, 171 pp. [in Russian].
Kitao M.; Lei T.T.; Koike T.; Kayama M.; Tobita H.; and Maruyama Y. (2007). Interaction
of drought and elevated CO2 on photosynthetic down-regulation and susceptibility to
photoinhibition in Japanese white birch (Betula platyphylla var. japonica) seedlings grown
under limited N availability. Tree Physiology, 27, 727 735.
Knutson T.R.; Delwoorth T.U.; Dixon. K.W.; and Stouer R.J. (1999). Model assessment of
regional temperature trends (1949 1997). J. Geophys. Res., 104(D24), 30981 30996.
Kohler M.A. (1954). Lake and pan evaporation. U.S. Geological Survey, Professional Papers,
269, 127±148.
Kohler M.A.; and Richards M.A. (1962). Multicapacity basin accounting for predicting runo
from storm precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 67(13), 5187 5197.
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1986). Natural and Anthropogenic Changes of Climate. Science Publ.,
Leningrad, 52 pp. [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1990). Key Problems in Global Ecology. ARISTI Publ., Moscow, 454 pp.
[in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1992). Global Climate. Science Publ., St. Petersburg, 359 pp. [in Russian].
Kondratyev, K.Ya. (1996). Global changes and demographic dynamics. Proceedings of the
Russian Geographical Society, 128(3), 1 12 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1998a). Environmental risk: Real and hypothetical. Proc. of the Russian
Geographical Soc., 130(3), 13 24 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1998b). Multidimensional Global Change. Wiley/Praxis, Chichester, U.K.,
761 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1999a). Climatic Eects of Aerosols and Clouds. Springer/Praxis,
Chichester, U.K., 264 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya. (1999b). Ecodynamics and Geopolicy. Vol. 1. Global Problems. St. Peters-
burg Branch of RAS Publ., 1036 pp. [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2000a). Earth researches from space: Scienti®c plane of the EOS system.
Earth Research from Space (Moscow), 3, 82 91 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2000b). Global changes on the boundary of two centuries. Herald of RAS,
70(9), 788 796.
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2001). Key issues of global change at the end of the second millenium. In:
R.R. Ernst (ed.), Our Fragile World: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Devel-
opment. EOLSS Vorrunner volumes 1 2, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, U.K., pp. 100 106.
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2002). Global climate change: Reality, hypotheses, and ®ction. Research of
the Earth from Space, 1, 3 23 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2003). Radiative forcing due to aerosol. Optics of the Atmosphere and
Ocean, 16(1), 5 18 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2004a). Global climate change: Observational data and numerical model-
ling results. Research of the Earth from Space, 2, 3 25 [in Russian].
536 References
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2004b). Global climate change: Unsolved problems. Meteorology and
Hydrology, 4, 93 102 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2004c). Priorities of global climatology. Proceedings of the Russian
Geographical Society, 136(2), 3 25 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. (2005). Sustainable development in the context of the consumption society
problems. In: V.N. Troyan and I.A. Dementyev (eds.), Sustainable Development and
Ecological Management. St. Petersburg State Univ. Publ., St. Petersburg, pp. 29 62 [in
Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. and Cracknell A.P. (1998). Observing Global Climate Change. Taylor &
Francis, London, 761 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Demirchian K.S. (2000). Global climate changes and carbon cycle.
Proc. Russ. Geogr. Soc., 132(4), 1 20 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Demirchian K. S. (2001). Global climate and Kyoto Protocol. Herald
of RAS, 71(11), 100 107 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. and Galindo I. (1997). Volcanic Activity and Climate. A. Deepak Publ.,
Hampton, VA., 382 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Isidorov V.A. (2001). Global carbon cycle. Atmosphere and Ocean
Optics, 14(1), 1 10 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Johannessen O.M. (1993). Arctic and Climate. St. Petersburg State
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2001a). Biocomplexity and global geoinformation
monitoring. Earth Research from Space (Moscow), 1, 3 10 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2001b). Expert system for greenhouse eect control.
Problems of Environment and Natural Resources, 6, 23 40 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2003a). Global carbon cycle and climate. Research of
the Earth from Space, 1, 3 15 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2003b). Global changes: Real and potential in future.
Research of the Earth from Space, 4, 1 10 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya. and Krapivin V.F. (2004a). Global Carbon Cycle Modelling. Science Publ.,
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2004b). Monitoring and prediction of natural disasters.
Il Nuovo Cimento, 27C(6), 657 672.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2005). Global climate dynamics: Future elaboration. 2.
Investigative strategy of the U.S.A. Proceedings of Russian Geographical Society, 4, 1 14
[in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2006a). Earth's radiation budget as an indicator of
global ecological equilibrium. Earth Research from Space (Moscow), 6, 3 9 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2006b). Present state and perspectives of global
energetics development. Energy: Economics, Engineering, Ecology, 2, 17 23 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Krapivin V.F. (2006c). Present state and future for global energy
development in the context of global ecodynamics. Proceedings of Russian Geographical
Society, 138(3), 14 30 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Varotsos C. (1995). Atmospheric greenhouse-eect in the context of
global climate-change. Nuovo Cimento della SocietaÁ Italiana di Fisica C: Geophysics and
Space Physics, 18(2), 123 151.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; and Varotsos C.A., (2000), Atmospheric Ozone Variability: Implications for
Climate Change, Human Health and Ecosystems. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Johannessen O.M.; and Melentyev V.V. (1996). High-Latitude Climate and
Remote Sensing. Wiley/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 200 pp.
References 537
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Krapivin V.F.; and Pshenin E.S. (2000). Concept behind regional
geoinformation monitoring. Earth Research from Space (Moscow), 6, 3 10 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Grigoryev Al.A.; and Varotsos C.A. (2002a). Environmental Disasters:
Anthropogenic and Natural. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 400 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Krapivin V.F.; and Phillips G.W. (2002b). Global Environmental Change:
Modelling and Monitoring. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 319 pp.
Kondratyev K. Ya.; Krapivin V. F.; and Savinykh V. P. (2003a). Prospects for Civilization
Development: Multi-Dimensional Analysis. Logos Publ., Moscow, 575 pp. [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Krapivin V.F.; and Varotsos C.A. (2003b). Global Carbon Cycle and
Climate Change. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 343 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Losev K.S.; Ananicheva M.D.; and Chesnokova I.V. (2003c). Natural
Scienti®c Foundations for Life Stability. CAGL Publ., Moscow, 240 pp. [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Losev K.S.; Ananicheva M.D.; and Chesnokova I.V. (2003d). Costs of
running ecological services in Russia. Herald of RAS, 73(1), 3 10 [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Krapivin V.F.; Varotsos C.A.; and Savinikh V.P. (2004a). Global
Ecodynamics: A Multidimensional Analysis. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 649 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Losev K.S.; Ananicheva M.D.; and Chesnokova I.V. (2004b). Stability of
Life on Earth. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 152 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Krapivin V.F.;Lakasa H.; and Savinikh V.P. (2005). Globalization and
Sustainable Development: Ecological Aspects. Introduction. Science Publ., St. Petersburg,
240 pp. [in Russian].
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Ivlev L.S.; Krapivin V.F.; and Varotsos C.A. (2006a). Atmospheric Aerosol
Properties: Formation, Processes and Impacts. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 572 pp.
Kondratyev K.Ya.; Krapivin V.F.; and Varotsos C.A. (2006b). Natural Disasters as Interactive
Components of Global Ecodynamics. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 620 pp.
Korstenshtein V.N. (1984). Dissolved Gases of the Subsurface Hydrosphere of the Earth. Nedra,
Koscielny-Bunde E.; Bunde A.; Havlin S.; Roman H.E.; Goldreich Y.; and Schellnhuber H.J.
(1998). Indication of a universal persistence law governing atmospheric variability. Phys-
ical Review Letters, 81(3), 729732.
Kovalev N.A. (2003). The wildland ®re season 2002 in Russian Federation. International Forest
Fire News, 28, 1 34.
Kraabol A.G.; and Stordal F. (2000). Modelling chemistry in aircraft plumes 2: The chemical
conservation of NOx to reservoir species under dierent conditions. Atmospheric Environ-
ment, 34(23), 3951 3962.
Kraabol A.G.; Konopka P.; Stordal F.; and Schlager H. (2000). Modelling chemistry in
aircraft plumes 1: Comparison with observations and evaluation of a layered approach.
Krahmann G.; and Visbeck M. (2003). Arctic sea ice response to Northern Annual Mode wind
forcing. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 5, 13830.
Kram P. (1999). Application of the forest soil water model. Ecological Modelling, 120(1),
9 30.
Krapivin V.F. (1978). On the Theory of Complex System Survivability. Soviet Radio Publ.,
Krapivin V.F. (1993). Mathematical model for global ecological investigations. Ecological
Modelling, 67(2 4), 103 127.
Krapivin, V.F. (1995) Simulation model for the investigation of pollution dynamics in the
Arctic basin. Oceanology (Moscow), 35, 366 75 [in Russian].
538 References
Krapivin V.F. (1996). The estimation of the Peruvian current ecosystem by a mathematical
model of biosphere. Ecological Modelling, 91(1), 1 14.
Krapivin, V.F. (1999a) Greenhouse eect and global biogeochemical carbon dioxide cycle.
Krapivin V.F. (1999b). Informational support of ecological investigations in the Arctic Basin.
Krapivin V.F. (2000a). Biospheric oxygen balance and its modeling. Problems of Environment
and Natural Resources, 10, 15 25 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F. (2000b). Global nitrogen cycle modeling. Problems of Environment and Natural
Resources, 10, 2 15 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F. (2000c). Greenhouse eect and global carbon dioxide cycle. Problems of
Environment and Natural Resources, 2, 2 18 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F. (2000d). Simulation model of biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus in the
biosphere. Problems of Environment and Natural Resources, 10, 26 30 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; and Klimov V.V. (1995). Valuation of convergence of ``physical mixture''
strategies in matrix games. Theory and Control Systems, 6, 209 217 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; and Klimov V.V. (1997). Stable strategies in games with gain functions
Mx y. Methods of Cybernetics and Informational Technologies (Saratov), 2, 36 45
[in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (2002). Global Environmental Change: Ecoinformatics.
St. Petersburg State University Publ., St. Petersburg, 724 pp. [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; and Phillips G.W. (2001a). A remote sensing-based expert system to study
the Aral Caspian aquageosystem water regime. Remote Sensing of Environment, 75,
201 215.
Krapivin V.F. and Phillips G.W. (2001b). Application of a global model to the study of Arctic
basin pollution: Radionuclides, heavy metals and oil carbohydrates. Environmental
Modelling and Software, 16, 1 17.
Krapivin V.F.; and Potapov I.I. (2002). Methods of Ecoinformatics. ARISTI Publ., Moscow,
Krapivin V.F.; and Potapov I.I. (2006). Monitoring of the chemical cycles in the environment.
Ecological Systems and Devices, 12, 3 11 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; and Potapov I.I. (2007). What is happening to the biosphere? Problems of
Environment and Natural Resources, 5, 3 15 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; and Varotsos C.A. (2007). Globalization and Sustainable Development: Environ-
mental Agendas. Springer/Praxis, Chichester, U.K., 304 pp.
Krapivin V.F.; and Vilkova L.P. (1990). Model estimation of excess CO2 distribution in
biosphere structure. Ecological Modelling, 50, 57 78.
Krapivin V.F., Svirezhev Yu.M., and Tarko A.M. (1982). Mathematical Modeling of Global
Biosphere Processes. Science Publ. House, Moscow, 272 pp. [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; Bui T.L.; Rochon G.L.; and Hicks D.R. (1996a). A global simulation model as
a method for estimating the role of regional areas in global change. Proc. of the Second
HoChiMinh City Conference on Mechanics (September 24 25, 1996). Inst. of Applied
Mechanics, HoChiMinh, pp. 68 69.
Krapivin V.F.; Vilkova L.P.; Rochon G.L.; and Hicks D.R. (1996b). Model estimation of the
role of urban areas in global CO2 dynamics. Proc. of Eco-Informa '96 (November 4 7,
1996, Florida), pp. 17 22.
Krapivin V.F.; Cherepenin V.A.; Nazaryan N.A.; Phillips G.W.; and Tsang F.Y. (1997).
Simulation model of radionuclide transport in the Angara Yenisey river system.
Problems of the Environment and Natural Resources, 2, 41 58 [in Russian].
References 539
Krapivin V.F.; Cherepenin V.A.; Phillips G.W.; August R.A.; Pautkin A.Yu.; Harper M.J.;
and Tsang F.Y. (1998). An application of modelling technology to the study of radio-
nuclear pollutants and heavy metals dynamics in the Angara Yenisey river system.
Ecological Modelling, 111(1), 121 134.
Krapivin V.F.; Mkrtchyan F.A.; Son N.C.; and Potapov I.I. (2004). Device for the measure-
ment of geophysical parameters. Ecological Systems and Devices, 2, 11 15 [in Russian].
Krapivin V.F.; Shutko A.M.; Chukhlantsev A.A.; Golovachev S.P.; and Phillips G.W. (2006).
GIMS-based method vegetation microwave monitoring. Environmental Modelling and
Software, 21(3), 330 345.
Kravtsov Yu.V. (2002). Investigation of the ecologo-geochemical state of underground and
surface waters of the Urengoy Oil Gas Condensate Deposit. Thesis of PhD dissertation,
Tyumen State University, Tyumen, 200 pp.
Kuck L.R.; Balsley B.B.; Helmig D.; Conway T.J.; Tans P.P.; Davis K.; Jensen M.L.; Bognar
J.A.; Arrieta R.V.; Rodriquez R.; and Birks J.W. (2000). Measurements of landscape-scale
¯uxes of carbon dioxide in the Peruvian Amazon by vertical pro®ling through the
atmospheric boundary layer. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105(D17), 22137 22146.
Kukla G. (2000). The last interglacial. Science, 287, 987 988.
Kuzmin P.O. (1957). Hydrological investigations of land waters. Int. Assoc. Sci. Hydrol., 3,
468 478.
Labonte R. (2001). Liberalization, health and World Trade Organization. J. Epidemiol.
Community Health, 55(9), 620 621.
Labonte R.; and Sanger M. (2006a). Glossary of the World Trade Organisation and public
health: Part 1. J. Epidemiol. Community Health, 60(8), 655 661.
Labonte R.; and Sanger M. (2006b). Glossary of the World Trade Organisation and public
health: Part 2. J. Epidemiol. Community Health, 60(9), 738 744.
Lal R.; and Stewart B.A. (eds.) (1994). Soil Process and Water Quality. Taylor & Francis/CRC
Press, London, 285 pp.
Lamptey B.L.; Barron E.J.; and Pollard D. (2005). Impacts of agriculture and urbanization on
the climate of the Northeastern United States. Global and Planetary Change, 49(3 4),
203 221.
Lane N. (2003). Oxygen: The Molecule that Made the World. Oxford University Press, Oxford,
NJ, 384 pp.
Langmann B. (2000). Numerical modelling of regional scale transport and photochemistry
directly together with meteorological processes. Atmospheric Environment, 34(21),
3585 3598.
Lau W.K.; and Waliser D. (2005). Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate
System. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 436 pp.
Lavender S.J.; Pinkerton M.P.; Moore G.F.; and Aiken J. (1998). A comparison of MOS and
SeaWiFS satellite imagery in the Western English Channel. Proceedings of the Second
International Workshop on MOS IRS and Ocean Color (June 10 15, 1998, Berlin).
Institute of Space Sensor Technology, Berlin, Germany, pp. 111 115.
Lavender S.J.; Pinkerton M.H.; Moore G.F.; Aiken J.; and Blondeau-Patissier D. (2005).
Modi®cation to the Atmospheric Correction of SeaWiFS Ocean Colour Images over
Turbid Waters. Continental Shelf Research, 25, 539 555.
Ledley T.S.; Sundquist E.T.; Schwartz S.E.; Hall D.K.; Fellows J.D.; and Killeen T.L. (1999).
Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases. EOS, 80(39), 453 458.
Lee K. (2001). The global dimensions of cholera. Global Change and Human Health, 2(1), 6 17.
540 References
Lee K.; McMichael T.; Butler C.; Ahern M.; and Bradley D. (2002). Global Change and
Health: The Good, The Bad and The Evidence. Global Change and Human Health,
3(1), 16 19.
Lee M.; Nakane K.; Nakatsubo T.; and Koizumi H. (2005). Long-term carbon exchanges at a
Takayama, Japan forest: The importance of root respiration in annual soil carbon ¯uxes
in a cool-temperate deciduous forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 134(1 4),
95 101.
Legendre L.; and Krapivin V.F. (1992). Model for vertical structure of phytoplankton
community in Arctic regions. Proc. of 7th Int. Symp. on Okhotsk Sea & Sea Ice (February
2 5, 1992, Mombetsu, Japan). Okhotsk Sea & Cold Ocean Res. Assoc., Mombetsu,
pp. 314 316.
Legendre P.; and Legendre L. (1998). Numerical Ecology. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 853 pp.
Leggett J.; Pepper W.J.; and Swart R.J. (1992). Emissions Scenarios for IPCC: An Update.
In: J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander, and S.K. Varney (eds.), Climate Change 1992: The
Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scienti®c Assessment. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., pp. 69 95.
Lemke P. (2001). Open windows to the polar oceans. Science, 292, 1670 1671.
Leonova G.A. (2004). Biogeochemical Indicators of Aquatic Ecosystem Pollution by Heavy
Metals. Water Resources, 31(2), 195 202.
Leveque C.; and Mounolou J.-C. (2003). Biodiversity. Wiley, Paris, 256 pp.
Levinson D.H.; and Waple A.M. (eds.) (2004). State of the Climate in 2003. Bull. Amer.
Meteorol. Soc., 85(6), 1 72.
Levis S.; Wiedinmyer C.; Bonan G. B.; and Guenther A. (2003). Simulating biogenic volatile
organic compounds emissions in the Community Climate System Model. J. Geophys. Res.,
108(D21), ACH2/1 ACH2/9.
Levitus S.; Antonov J.I.; Boyer T.P.; and Stephens C. (2000). Warming of the World Ocean.
Science, 287, 2225 2229.
Levitus S.; Antonov J.I.; Wang J.; Delworth T.L.; Dixon K.W.; and Broccoli A.J. (2001).
Anthropogenic warming of Earth's climate system. Science, 292(5515), 267 270.
Licki J.; Korotkov A.V.; Prius C.F.L.; Karjalainen T.; Victor D.G.; and Kauppi P.E. (2003).
Increased carbon sink in temperate and boreal forests. Climate Change, 61, 89 99.
Liikanen A.; and Martikainen P.J. (2003). Eect of ammonium and oxygen on methane and
nitrous oxide ¯uxes across sediment water interface in a eutrophic lake. Chemosphere,
52(8), 1287 1293.
Lin D.-L.; Sakoda A.; Shibasaki R.; Goto N.; and Suzuki M. (2000). Modelling a global
biogeochemical nitrogen cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecological Modelling, 135(1),
89 110.
Lin C.-Y.; Liu S.C.; Chou C.-K.; Huang S.-J.; Liu C.-M.; Kuo C.-H.;and Young C.-Y. (2005).
Long-range transport of aerosols and their impact on the air quality of Taiwan. Atmo-
spheric Environment, 39(33), 6066 6076.
Lindsey R.; and Simmon R. (2003). Escape from the Amazon. The Earth Observer, 15(2), 8 13.
Liping G.; Erda L.; and Zhongpei L. (2000). Methane emission ¯ux and mitigation options and
its relationship with N2 O emission from paddy soils. Proceedings of the Second Inter-
national Methane Mitigation Conference (June 18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk
State University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 217 222.
Liu X.; Chance K.; Sioris C.E.; Kurosu T.P.; Spurr R.J.D.; Martin R.V.; Fu T.-M.; Logan
J.A.; Jacob D.J.; Palmer P.I.; Newchurch M.J.; Megretskaia I.A.; and Chat®eld R.B.
(2006). First directly-retrieved global distribution of tropospheric column ozone from
References 541
GOME: Comparison with the GEOS CHEM model. J. Geophys. Res., 111(D02308),
doi:10.1029/2005JD006564, 1 17.
Lloyd A.H.; and Fastie C.L. (2002). Spatial and temporal variability in the growth and climate
response of treeline trees in Alaska. Clim. Change, 52, 481 509.
Loginov V.F.; and Mikutski V.S. (2000). Assessment of the anthropogenic signal in the climate
of cities. Proc. Russ. Geogr. Soc., 132(1), 23 31 [in Russian].
Logofet D.O. (1993). Matrices and Graphs: Stability Problems in Mathematical Ecology. Taylor
& Francis/CRC Press, Boca Raton, 308 pp.
Logofet D.O. (2002). Matrix population models: Construction, analysis and interpretation.
Ecological Modelling, 148(3), 307 310.
Ma J.; Richter A.; Burrows J.P.; NuÈû H.; and van Aardenne A. (2006). Comparison of
model- simulated tropospheric NO2 over China with GOME-satellite data. Atmospheric
Environment, 40(4), 593 604.
MacDonald G.; Edwards M.; and Retelle M. (2001). PARCS develops two updated research
goals. Witness the Arctic, 9(1), 8 9.
Maddox G.H. (1999). Africa and Environmental History. Environmental History, 4, 162 167.
Mahlman J.D. (1998). Science and nonscience concerning human-caused climate warming.
Ann. Rev. Energy and Environ., Palo Alto (CA), 23, 83 105.
Mahoney J.R. (2003). The U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Vision for the Program and
Highlights of the Science Strategic Plan. A report by the Climate Change Science Program
and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C., 41 pp.
Majorovicz H.; Safanda J.; and Skinner W. (2002). East to west retardation in the onset of the
recent warming across Canada inferred from inversions of temperature logs. J. Geophys.
Res., 107(B10), ETG6/11 ETG6/12.
Makarov I.M. (2000). Risk Management: Risk, Sustainable Development, Synergy. Science
Publ., Moscow, 432 pp. [in Russian].
Malinetskii G.G. (2007). Planning the future and technological challenges for Russia. Integral,
8(32), 22 24 [in Russian].
Manwell J.F.; McGowan J.G.; and Rogers A.L. (2002). Wind Energy Explained: Theory,
Design and Application. Wiley, New York, 590 pp.
Marchand R.; and Ackerman T. (2004). Evaluation of radiometric measurements from the
NASA Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR): Two- and three-dimensional
radiative transfer modeling of an inhomogeneous stratocumulus cloud deck. J. Geophys.
Res., 109, D18208, doi:10.1029/2004JD004710.
Marchuk G.I.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (1992). Priorities of Global Ecology. Science Publ.,
Maria S.F.; Russel L.M.; Gilles M.K.; and Myneni S.C.B. (2004). Organic aerosol growth
mechanisms and their climate-forcing implications. Science, 306(5703), 1921 1924.
Markowicz K.M.; Flatau P.J.; Vogelmann A.M.; Quinn P.K.; and Welton E.J. (2003). Clear-
sky infrared aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Quart.
J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129(594), 2927 2947.
Marti J.; and Ernst G.G.J. (eds.) (2005). Volcanoes and the Environment. Cambridge Univ.
Press., Cambridge, 488 pp.
Marzano F.S.; Vulpiani G.; and Rose W.I. (2006). Microphysical characterization of micro-
wave radar re¯ectivity due to volcanic ash clouds. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and
Remote Sensing, 44(2), 313 327.
Matishov G.G. (1998). Strategy of Arctic studies. Herald of the Russian Acad. Sci., 68(6),
515 520 [in Russian].
542 References
Matishov G.G. (2000). Contemporary problems of oceanology and geography of the World
Ocean. Herald of the Russian Acad. Sci., 70(8), 682 687 [in Russian].
Matishov D.G.; and Matishov G.G. (2001). Radiational Ecological Oceanology. Kola Science
Center, Russian Acad. Sci., Apatity, 419 pp. [in Russian].
Matson P.A.; McDowell H.; Townsend A.R.; and Vitousek P.M. (1999). The globalization of
N deposition: Ecosystem consequences in tropical environments. Biogeochemistry, 46,
67 83.
Matson P.A.; Lohse K.A.; and Yall S.J. (2002). The globalization of nitrogen deposition:
Consequences for terrestrial ecosystems. Ambio, 31(2), 113 119.
Matthies M.; and Scheringer M. (eds.) (2001). Long-range transport in the environment.
Environ. Sci. & Pollut. Res., 8(3), 149 150.
Mayers J.C. (2004). London's wettest summer and wettest year: 1903. Weather, 59(10),
274 278.
McCauley L.L.; and Meier M.F. (eds.) (1991). Arctic System Science: Land/Atmosphere/Ice
Interactions. ARCUS, Fairbanks, AL, 48 pp.
McGue K.; and Henderson-Sellers A. (2001). Forty years of numerical climate modelling.
International Journal of Climatology, 21, 1067 1109.
Mcintyre A.D. (1999). The environment and the oil companies. Marine Pollution Bulletin,
38(3), 155 156.
McKitrick R. (2002). Trends in data on air temperature obtained with internal correlations
taken into account. Proc. Russ. Geogr. Soc., 134(3), 16 24 [in Russian].
McKitrick R. (ed.) (2007). Independent Summary for Policy-Makers: IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report. Fraser Institute, Vancouver, D.C., 64 pp.
McMichael A.J.; Bolin B.; Costanza R.; Daily G.C.; Folke C.; Lindahl-Kiessling K.; Lindgren
E.; and Niklasson B. (1999). Globalization and the Sustainability of Human Health.
BioScience, 49(3), 205 210.
McNulty S.G. (2002). Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration. Environmental
Pollution, 116, 817 824.
McPhaden M.J.; and Hayes S.P. (1991). On the Variability of Winds, Sea Surface Tempera-
ture, and Surface Layer Heat Content in the Western Equatorial Paci®c. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 96, 3331 3342.
McVean G. (2003). Demographic Models. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 29 pp.
MEA (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current State and Trends. Island Press,
Meadows M. (2000). United Kingdom methane emissions: Trends, projections and mitigation
options. Proceedings of the Second International Methane Mitigation Conference (June
18 23, 2000, Novosibirsk). Novosibirsk State University Publ., Novosibirsk, pp. 37 44.
Mearns L.O.; Bogardi I.; Giorgi F.; Matyasovsky I.; and Palecki M. (1999). Comparison of
climate change scenarios generated from regional climate model experiments and statis-
tical downscaling. J. Geophys. Res., 104(D6), 6603 6621.
Medlyn B.E.; Berbigier P.; Clement R.; Grelle A.; Loustau D.; Linder S.; Wingate L.;
Jarvis P.G.; Sigurdsson B.D.; and McMurtrie R.E. (2005). Carbon balance of coniferous
forests growing in contrasting climates: Model-based analysis. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology, 131(1 2), 97 124.
Meijer E.W.; and Velthoven P. (1997). The eect of the conversion of nitrogen oxides in
aircraft exhaust plumes in global models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(23), 3013 3016.
Melillo J.; Field C.B.; and Moldan B. (eds.) (2003). Interactions of the Main Biogeochemical
Cycles: Global Change and Human Impacts, SCOPE Series Vol. 61. Island Press, Washing-
ton, D.C., 320 pp.
References 543
Melnikova I.N.; and Vasilyev A.V. (2004). Short-Wave Solar Radiation in the Earth's
Atmosphere. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 303 pp.
Mendelsohn R.; and Rosenberg N. J. (1994). Framework for integrated assessment of global
warming impacts. Clim. Change, 28(1 2), 15 44.
Menon S.; Brenguier J.-L.; Boucher O.; Davison P.; del Genio A.D.; Feichter J.; Ghan S.;
Guibert S.; Liu X.; Lohman U.; Pawlowska H.; Penner J.E.; Quaas J.; Roberts D.L.;
SchuÈller L.; and Snider J. (2003). Evaluating aerosol/cloud/radiation process parameter-
izations with single-column models and Second Aerosol Characterization Experiment
(ACE-2) cloudy column observations. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), AAC2/1 AAC2/19.
Milesi C.; Hashimoto H.; Running S.W.; and Nemani R.R. (2005). Climate variability,
vegetation productivity and people at risk. Global and Planetary Change, 47(2 4),
221 231.
Milliman J.D. (2001). Delivery and fate of ¯uvial water and sediment to the sea: A marine
geologist's view of European rivers. Scientia Marina, 65(2), 121 132.
Milliman J.D.; and Kao J.S. (2005). Hyperpycnal discharge of ¯uvial sediment to the ocean:
Impact of Super-Typhoon Herb (1996) on Taiwanese rivers. Journal of Geology, 113,
503 516.
Milne A. (2004). Doomsday: The Science of Catastrophic Events. Praeger, Westport, CT, 194
pp.
Mintzer I.M. (1987). A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Eect.
World Resources Institute Res. Rep. No. 15, New York, 70 pp.
Mironov B. (2005). A Sentence for the Russia Murders. Orthodoxy Initiative Inc., Minsk, 575
pp. [in Russian].
Mitra A.P. (2004). Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX): An overview. Indian J. Mar. Sci.,
33(1), 30 39.
Mitsch W.J. (ed.) (2005). Wetland Creation, Restoration, and Conservation. Elsevier, Amster-
dam, 182 pp.
Mkrtchyan F.A. (1982). Optimal Signal Distinguishing and Monitoring Problems. Science Publ.,
Mohr T. and Bridge J. (2003). The evolution of the integrated global Earth observing system.
Studying the Earth from Space, 1, 64 73.
MoÈhler O.; and Arnold F. (1992). Gaseous sulfuric acid and sulfur dioxide measurements in
the Arctic troposphere and lower stratosphere: Implications for hydroxyl radical abun-
dances. Ber. Bunsenges. Phys. Chem., 96, 280±283.
Moiseev N.N. (1979). Mathematics Used in Experiments. Science Publ., Moscow, 224 pp
[in Russian].
Moiseev N.N. (1988). Human Ecology from the View of a Mathematician. Young Guard Publ.,
Moiseev N.N. (1990). Man and Noosphere. Young Guard Publ., Moscow, 352 pp. [in Russian].
Moiseev N.N. (1993). The Ascent of Reason. Science Publ., Moscow, 175 pp. [in Russian]
Moiseev N.N. (2001). Meditation about Rational Society. Sustainable World Publ., Moscow,
Moiseev N.N.; Alexandrov V.V.; and Tarko A.M. (1985). Man and Biosphere. Science Publ.,
Mon J.; Flury M.; and Harsh J.B. (2006). A quantitative structure activity relationship
(QSAR) analysis of triarylmethane dye tracers. Journal of Hydrology, 316(1 4), 84 97.
Monin A.S.; and Krasnitsky V.P. (1985). Phenomena on the Ocean Surface. Hydrometeoizdat,
544 References
Monin A.S.; and Shishkov Yu.A. (1990). Global Ecological Problems. Knowledge Publ.,
Monson R. (2004). Ecological Aspects of Biogeochemical Cycles, report from a NEON Science
Workshop. AIBS Publ., Boulder, CO, 25 pp.
Moody-Stuart M. (2006). People, Planet and Pro®ts. IISD Commentary, New York, 9 pp.
Morgan J.; and Codispoti L. (eds.) (1995). Department of Defense Arctic Nuclear Waste
Assessment Program: FY's 1993 1994. Oce of Naval Research, ONR 322-95-5,
Arlington, VA, pp.15 30.
Morison J. (2001). SEARCH research opportunities emerging (Winter 2000/2001). Witness the
Arctic, 8(2), 8 9.
Morison J.; and Calder J. (2001). SEARCH develops implementation framework. Witness the
Arctic, 9(1), 3 4.
Moritz R.E.; Bitz C.M.; and Steig E.J. (2002). Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic.
Science, 297(5586), 1497 1502.
Moron V.; Vautard R.; and Ghil M. (1998). Trends, interdecadal and interannual oscillations
in global sea-surface temperatures. Climate Dynamics, 7 8, 545 469.
Morris J. (1997). Introduction: Climate change: Prevention or adaptation? IEA Stud. Educ., 10,
13 37.
Mosier A.R.; Syers J.K.; and Freney J.R. (eds.) (2004). Agriculture and Nitrogen Cycle: Assess-
ing the Impacts of Fertilizer Use on Food Production and the Environment. Island Press,
Muller, R.; and Peter, T. (1992). The numerical modeling of the sedimentation of polar
stratospheric cloud particles. Ber. Bunsenges Phys. Chem., 96, 353 61.
Munich Re (2004). Annual Report 2003: More than Words. MuÈnchener RuÈckversicherungs-
Gesellschaft, Munich, Germany, 234 pp.
Munich Re (2005a). Annual Report 2004: Advancing Innovation. MuÈnchener RuÈck-
versicherungs-Gesellshaft, Munich, Germany, 220 pp.
Munich Re (2005b). Topic Geo. Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2004. MuÈnchener
RuÈckversicherungs-Gesellshaft, Munich, Germany, 60 pp.
Munich Re (2007). Topic Geo. Natural Catastrophes 2006: Analyses, Assessments, Positions.
MuÈnchener RuÈckversicherungs-Gesellshaft, Munich, Germany, 54 pp.
Munoz-Alpizar R., Blanchet J.-P., and Quintanar A.I. (2003). Application of the NARCM
model to high-resolution aerosol simulations: Case study of Mexico City basin during
the InvestigacioÂn Sobre Materia Particulada y Deterioro AtmosfeÂrico [Investigation into
particulate matter and atmospheric deterioration] aerosol and visibility research measure-
ments campaign. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D15), AAC7/1 AAC7/14.
Munzi S.; Rovera S.; and Caneva G. (2007). Epiphytic lichens as indicators of environmental
quality in Rome. Environmental Pollution, 146(2), 350 358.
Murata A.; and Takizawa T. (2002). Impact of a coccolithophorid bloom on the CO2 system in
surface waters of the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(11), 1547,
doi:10.1029/2001GL013906.
Murayama S.; Yamamoto S.; Saigusa N.; Kondo H.; and Takamura C. (2005). Long-term
carbon exchange at a Takayama, Japan forest: Statistical analyses of inter-annual
variations in the vertical pro®le of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio and carbon budget in
a cool-temperate deciduous forest in Japan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,
134(1 4), 17 26.
Myeong S.; Nowak D.J.; and Duggin M.J. (2006). A temporal analysis of urban forest carbon
storage using remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment, 101(2), 277 282.
References 545
Myhre G.; Stordal F.; Johmsrud M.; Ignatov A.; Mischenko M.I.; Geogdzhaev I.V.; TanreÂ D.;
DenzeÂ J.-L.; Goloub P.; Nakajima T.; Higurashi A.; Torres O.; and Holben B. (2004).
Intercomparison of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth over the ocean. J. Atmos. Sci.,
61, 499 513.
Myhre G.; Stordal F.; Johnsrud M.; Diner D.J.; Geogdzhayev I.V.; Haywood J.M.; Holben
B.N.; Holzer-Popp T.; Ignatov A.; Kahn R.A.; Kaufman Y.J.; Loeb N.; Martonchik J.V.;
Mishchenko M.I.; Nalli N.R.; Remer L.A.; Schroedter-Homscheidt M.; TanreÂ D., Torres
O.; and Wang M. (2005). Intercomparison of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth
over ocean during the period September 1997 to December 2000. Atmos. Chem. Phys.,
5, 1697 1719.
Nadelhoer K.L.; Emmet B.A.; Gundersen P.; Kjonaas O.J.; Koopmans C.J.; Schleppi P.;
Tietem A.; and Wright R.F. (1999). Nitrogen deposition makes a minor contribution to
carbon sequestration in temperate forests. Nature, 398(6723), 145 148.
Nagurny, A.P.; and Maistrova, V.V. (2002). Long-term temperature trends for the free
atmosphere in the Arctic. Proceedings of RAS, 389(3), 295 301 [in Russian].
Nalder I.A.; and Wein R. (2006). A model for the investigation of long-term carbon dynamics
in boreal forests of western Canada. Ecological Modelling, 192(1 2), 37 66.
Nechaev A.A. (1997). Methodology for predicting economic structure by means of interbranch
comparisons. In: Yu.V. Yakovets (ed.), Forecast Theory and Future of Russia. N.D.
Kondratyev's International Fund, Moscow, pp. 58 67 [in Russian].
Nefedova E.I. (1994). Mathematical modeling of global carbon cycle in the atmosphere ocean
system. PhD thesis, Computer Center of RAS, Moscow, 112 pp. [in Russian].
Nefedova E.I.; and Tarko A.M. (1993). Investigation of the global carbon cycle within the
framework of a zonal model in the atmosphere ocean system. Proceedings of RAS,
333(5), 645 647 [in Russian].
Nicolis C.; and Nicolis G. (1995). From short-scale atmospheric variability to global climate
dynamics: Toward a systematic theory of averaging. J. of Atm. Sci., 52(11), 1903 1913.
Nielsen T.T. (1999). Characterization of ®re regimes in the Experiment for Regional Sources
and Sinks of Oxidants (EXPRESSO) study area. J. Geophys. Res., 104(D23),
30713 30723.
Nishida K.; Nemani R.R.; Glassy J.M.; and Running S.W. (2003). Development of an
evapotranspiration index from Aqua/MODIS for monitoring surface moisture status.
IEEE Trans. on Geosci. and Remote Sensing, 41(2), 493 501.
Nitu C.; Krapivin V.F.; and Bruno A. (2000a). Intelligent Techniques in Ecology. Printech,
Bucharest, 150 pp.
Nitu C.; Krapivin V.F.; and Bruno A. (2000b). System Modelling in Ecology. Printech,
Bucharest, 260 pp.
Nitu C.; Krapivin V.F.; and Pruteanu E. (2004). Ecoinformatics: Intelligent Systems in Ecology.
Magic Print, Onesti, Bucharest, 411 pp.
Noji E.K. (2001). Bioterrorism: A ``new'' global environmental health threat. Global Change
and Human Health, 2(1), 46 53.
Norton R.G. (2003). Agricultural Development Policy: Concepts and Experiences. Wiley,
Amsterdam, 512 pp.
Oechel W.C.; Vourlitis G.L.; Hastings S.J.; Zulneta R.C.; Hinzman L.; and Kane D. (2000).
Acclimation of ecosystem CO2 exchange in the Alaskan Arctic in response to climate
warming. Nature, 406(6799), 978 981.
Oganesian V.V. (2004). Climate change in Moscow from 1879 to 2002: Values of extremes in
temperature and precipitation. Meteorology and Hydrology, 9, 31 37 [in Russian].
546 References
Oostenrijk R.; Heyens C.; Klimont Z.; Elzen M.J.E.D.; and Amann M. (2006). Exploring the
ancillary bene®ts of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe. Energy Policy, 34,
444 460.
Orheim O. (ed.) (2000). The Recent Arctic Ocean Warming. Proceedings Joint Science Day:
Marine Climate of the Arctic (Tromso, April 25 29, 2000). Norsk Polarinstitutt Intern-
rapport No. 3, 32 pp.
Osborne S.R.; Haywood J.M.; Francis P.N.; and Dubovik O. (2004). Short-wave radiative
eects of biomass burning aerosol during SAFARI 2000. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,
130, Part B, No. 599, 1423 1447.
OSPAR (2003). Annual Report 2002 2003, Vol. 2. OSPAR Commission, London, 111 pp.
Osterkamp T.E. (2005). The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska. Global and Planetary
Change, 49(3 4), 187 202.
Otero L.A.; Ristori P.R.; Holben B.; and Quel E.J. (2004). Detection of biomass burning
aerosol in CoÂrdoba, Argentina, using the AERONET/NASA data base. OÂptica Pura y
Aplicada, 37(3), 3359 3363.
Overland J.E.; and Adams J.M. (2001). On the temporal character and regionality of the Arctic
Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(14), 2811 2814.
Pachauri R.K. (2004). Climate and Humanity. Proceedings of the All-World Conference on
Climate Change (September 29 October 3, 2003, Moscow). Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow,
Pagurova V.I. (1968). Criteria for the Comparison of Average Values by Two Normal
Measurements. Computer Center of RAS, Moscow, 57 pp.
Palmer T.N.; Alessandri A.; Anderson U.; Cantelaube P.; Davey M.; DeÂleÂcluse P.; DeÂqueÂ M.;
Diez E.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Feddersen H.; Graham R.; Gualdi S.; GueÂreÂmy J.-F.;
Hagedorn R.; Hoshen M.; Keenlyside N.; Latif M.; Lazar A.; Maisornave E.;
Marletto V.; Morse A.P.;Or®la B.; Rogel P.; Terres J.-M.; and Thomson M.C. (2004).
Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual
Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 85(6), 853 872.
Palutikof J.P.; and Holt T. (2004). Climate change and the occurrence of extremes: Some
implications for the Mediterranean Basin. In: A. Marquina (ed.), Environmental Chal-
lenges in the Mediterranean 2000 2050. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands,
pp. 61 73.
Palutikof J.P.; Goodess C.M.; Watkins S.J.; and Burgess P.E. (1999). Long-term climate
change. Progr. Environ. Sci., 1(1), 89 96.
Pan H. (2005). The cost eciency of Kyoto ¯exible mechanisms: A top-down study with the
GEM-E3 world model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 20(11), 1401 1411.
Pan Y.; McGuire A.D.; Melillo J.M.; Kicklighter D.W.; Sitch S.; and Prentice I.C. (2002).
A biogeochemistry-based dynamic vegetation model and its application along a moisture
gradient in the continental United States. Journal of Vegetation Science, 13, 369 382.
Panikov N.S.; and Dedysh S.N. (2000). Cold season CH4 and CO2 emission from boreal peat
bogs (West Siberia): Winter ¯uxes and thaw activation dynamics. Global Biogeochemical
Cycles, 14(4), 1071 1080.
Parchomenko V.P.; and Tarko A.M. (2002). Analysis of Present Problems in the World and
Russia. Computer Center of RAS, Moscow, 54 pp. [in Russian].
Park K.-H.; Thompson A.G.; Marinier M.; Clark K.; and Wagner-Riddle C. (2006). Green-
house gas emissions from stored liquid swine manure in a cold climate. Atmospheric
Environment, 40(4), 618 627.
Parkinson C.L. (2003). Aqua: An Earth-observing satellite mission to examine water and other
climate variables. IEEE Trans. on Geosci. and Remote Sensing, 41(2), 173±183.
References 547
Parson E.A.; and Fisher-Vanden K. (1997). Integrated assessment models of global climate
change. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 22, 589 628.
Parson E.A. and Fisher-Vanden K. (1999). Joint implementation of greenhouse gas abatement
under the Kyoto Protocol's ``Clean Development Mechanism'': Its Scope and Limits.
Policy Sciences, 32(3), 207 224.
Pasini A.; LoreÂ M.; and Ameli F. (2006). Neural network modelling for the analysis of forcings/
temperatures relationships at dierent scales in the climate system. Ecological Modelling,
191(1), 58 67.
Pauly D.; and Maclean J. (2003). In a Perfect Ocean: The State of Fisheries and Ecosystems in
the North Atlantic Ocean. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 175 pp.
Pauly D.; Watson R.; and Alden J. (2005). Global trends in world ®sheries: Impact on marine
ecosystems and food security. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 360, 5 12.
Pavolonis M.J.; and Key J.R. (2003). Antarctic cloud radiative forcing at the surface estimated
from the AVHRR Polar Path®nder and ISCCP D1 data sets, 1985 93. J. Appl. Meteorol.,
42, 827 840.
Payne J.R.; McNabb G.D.; and Clayton J.R. (1991) Oil-weathering behavior in Arctic
environments. Polar Res., 10(2), 631 662.
Peng C.K.; Buldyrev S.V.; Havlin S.; Simons M.; Stanley H.E.; and Goldberger A.L. (1994).
Mosaic organization of DNA nucleotides. Physical Review, E49(2), 1685 1689.
Peng Y.; and Lohmann U. (2003). Sensitivity study of the spectral dispersion of the cloud
droplet size distribution on the indirect aerosol eect. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(10),
14/1 14/4.
Penman H.L. (1948). Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proc. R. Soc.
(London), 193, 120 145.
Penner J.E.; Zhang S.Y.; and Chuang C.C. (2003). Soot and smoke aerosol may not warm
climate. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D21), AAC1/1 AAC1/9.
Pentius F. (2003). Drinking Water Regulation and Health. Wiley, New York, 1029 pp.
Perry I. (2001). Marine ecosystem and climate interactions in the Past, Present, and Future:
Report of a workshop between GLOBEC, PAGES and CLIVAR. Newsletter, 7(1), 6 8.
Pervaniuk V.S. (2001). A spatial numerical model of the global biogeochemical cycles of
carbon and nitrogen in the atmosphere ocean system. Ph.D. thesis, Computing Center
of RAS, 118 pp. [in Russsian].
Pervaniuk, V.S.; and Tarko, A.M. (2001). Modelling the global carbon cycle in the
atmosphere ocean system. Numerical Modelling, 13(11), 13 22 [in Russian].
Phelan, J.P. (2004). Topics: Annual Review of North American Natural Catastrophes 2003.
American Re, Princeton, NJ, 48 pp.
Philbrick C.R. (2002). Overview of Raman lidar techniques for air pollution measurements in
lidar remote sensing for industry and environmental monitoring. SPIE Proceedings, 4484,
136 150.
Phillips G.W.; August R.A.; Cherepenin V.A.; Harper M.J.; King S.E.; Krapivin V.F.; Pautkin
A.Yu; and Tsang F.Y. (1997). Radionuclear pollutants in the Angara and Yenisey rivers
of Siberia. Radioprotection-Colloques, 32, 299 304.
Pinkerton M.H.; Lavender S.J.; and Aiken J. (2003). Validation of SeaWiFS ocean color
satellite data using a moored databuoy. J. Geophys. Res., 108(C5), 10.1029/2002JC001337.
Pirard P.; Vandentorren S.; Pascal M.; Laaidii K.; Le Tertre A.; Cassadou S.; and Ledrans M.
(2005). Summary of the mortality impact assessment of the 2003 heat wave in France.
Euro Surveillance, 10(7), 153±156.
Pittick B. (2003). Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts.
Australian Greenhouse Oce Publ., Canberra, 250 pp.
548 References
Platt C.M.R.; and Austin R.T. (2002). Remotely controlled, continuous observations of
infrared radiance with the CSIRO/ARM Mark II radiometer of the SGP CART site.
Proceedings of the 12th Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team
Meeting (St. Petersburg, Florida, April 8 12, 2002), pp. 1 10.
Plotnikov V.V. (1996).Long-term prognosis of Okhotsk Sea ice conditions by considering
large-scale atmospheric processes. Meteorology and Hydrology (Moscow), 12, 93 100
[in Russian].
Plus M.; Chapelle A.; MeÂnesguen A.; Deslous Paoli J.-M.; and Auby I. (2003). Modelling
seasonal dynamics of biomasses and nitrogen contents in a seagrass meadow (Zostera
noltii Hornem.): Application to the Thau lagoon (French Mediterranean coast).
Ecological Modelling, 161, 213 238.
Podgorny I.A. and Ramanathan V. (2001). A modeling study of the direct eect of aerosols
over the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 104(20), 24097 24104.
Polischuk Yu.M. (1992). Simulation Linguistic Modeling of the System with Natural Com-
ponents. Science Publ., Novosibirsk, 228 pp. [in Russian].
Popovicheva O.B.; Starik A.M.; and Favorsky O.N. (2000). Impacts of aviation on the gas
and aerosol composition of the atmosphere. Bull. of Russian Ac. Sc.: FAO, 2, 163 176
[in Russian].
Potapov I.I.; Krapivin V.F.; and Soldatov V.Yu. (2006). Risk assessment in the geoinforma-
tion monitoring regime. Ecological Systems and Devices, 8, 11 18 [in Russian].
Potter C.; Klooster S.; and Genovese V. (2003). Satellite data help predict terrestrial carbon
sinks. EOS, 84(46), 502 508.
Potter C.; Klooster S.; Tan P.; Steinbach M.; Kumar V.; and Genovese V. (2005). Variability in
terrestrial carbon sinks over two decades: Part 2ÐEurasia. Global and Planetary Change,
49(3 4), 177 186.
Preller R.H.; and Cheng A.B.E. (1999). Modeling the transport of radiactive contaminants in
the Arctic. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 38(2), 71 91.
Prentice I.C. (2001). The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide. In: Climate Change
2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, a report of Working Group II of IPCC.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 183 237.
Prescott-Allen R. (2001). Wellbeing of Nations: A Country-by-Country Index of Quality of Life
and the Environment. Island Press, Washington, D.C., 350 pp.
Priestley C.H.B.; and Taylor R.J. (1972). On the assessment of surface heat ¯ux and evapo-
transpiration using large scale parameters. Monthly Weather Rev., 100, 81 92.
Qi J.; and Gutman G. (2005).International Conference on Land Cover and Land Use Change
Processes in North East Asia Region, Summary Report. Michigan University Press, East
Lansing, MI, 14 pp.
Rakipova L.R.; and Vishniakova O.N. (1973). The in¯uence of carbon dioxide variations
on the atmosphere thermodynamic regime. Meteorology and Hydrology, 5, 23 31
[in Russian].
Ramad F. (1981). Principles of Applied Ecology. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 544 pp.
[in Russian].
Ramanathan V.; and Coakley J.A. (1978). Climate modelling through radiative convective
models. Revs. Geophys. Space Phys., 16, 465 489.
Randel W.J.; Wu F.; and Rios W.R. (2003). Thermal variability of the tropical tropopause
region derived from GPS/MET observations. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 7/1 7/12.
Rayward-Smith V.J.; Osman I.H.; Reeves R.; and Smith G.D. (eds.) (1996). Modern Heuristic
Search Methods. Wiley, Washington, D.C., 314 pp.
References 549
Reilly J.; Stone P.H.; Forest C.E.; Webster M.D.; Jacoby H.D.; and Prinn R.G. (2001).
Uncertainty and climate change assessments. Science, 293(5529), 430 433.
Renner M. (2002). Overview: Making the Connections. In: L. Starke (ed.), Vital-Signs
2002 2003: The Trends that Are Shaping Our Future. Earthscan, London, pp.15 170.
Rhee T.S.; Brenninkmeijer C.A.M.; and RoÈckmann T. (2005). The overwhelming role of soils
in the global atmospheric hydrogen cycle. Atmos. Cham. Phys. Discuss., 5, 11215 11248.
Riccio A.; Barone G.; Chianese E.; and Giunta G. (2006). A hierarchical Bayesian approach to
the spatio-temporal modeling of air quality data. Atmospheric Environment, 40(3),
554 566.
Riedlinger S.H.; and Preller R.H. (1991). The development of a coupled ice ocean model for
forecasting ice conditions in the Arctic. J. of Geophys. Res., 96, 16955 16977.
Riedo M.; Gyalistras D.; and Fuhrer J. (2000). Net primary production and carbon stocks in
dierently managed grasslands: Simulation of site-speci®c sensitivity to climate change.
Ecological Modelling, 134(2 3), 207 227.
Roeckner E.; Arpe K.; Bengtsson L.; Christoph M.; Claussen M.; DuÈmenil L.; Esch M.;
Giorgetta M.;Schlese U.; and Schulzweida U. (1996). The Atmospheric General Circulation
Model ECHAM-4: Model Description and Simulation of Present-Day Climate. Max-
Planck-Institut fuÈr Meteorologie Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp.
Rogers A.N.; Bromwich D.H.; Sinclair E.N.; and Cullather R.I. (2001). The atmospheric
hydrologic cycle over the Arctic Basin from reanalyses. Part 2. Interannual variability.
Journal of Climate, 14(11), 2414 2429.
Roll G.U. (1968). Physics of Atmospheric Processes above the Sea. Hydrometeoizdat,
Rosenberg J. (2001). The Follies of Globalization Theory. Verso Publ., London, 224 pp.
Rosengrant M.W.; Cai X.; and Cline S.A. (2002). Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an
Impending Crisis. IWMI Publ., Colombo, Sri Lanka, 36 pp.
Rossby C.-G. (1939). Relation between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation of the
atmosphere and the displacements of the semi-permanent centers of action. J. Marine
Research, 2, 38 55.
Rossow W.B. (2003). Workshop on climate system feedbacks. GEWEX News., 13(1), 12 14.
Roth R.S. (1981). Technique in the identi®cation of deterministic systems. IEEE Transactions
on Automatic Control, AC-26(5), 1169 1176.
Rovinsky F.Ya.; Chernogaeva G.M.; and Paramonov S.G. (1995). A role of river ¯ow and
atmospheric transport in the pollution of Russian northern seas. Meteorology and
Hydrology (Moscow), 9, 22 29 [in Russian].
Rubincam D. P. (2004). Black body temperature, orbital elements, the Milankovitch precession
index, and the Seversmith psychroterms. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 79(1 2),
111 131.
Ruck, M. (2002). Natural Catastrophes 2002: Annual Review. Munich Re Topics, Dresden,
Germany, 50 pp.
Rudels B.; Larsson A.-M.; and Sehistendt P.-I. (1991). Strati®cation and water mass formation
in the Arctic Ocean. Polar Res., 10(1), 19 31.
Rundgren M.; BjoÈrck S.; and Hammarlund D. (2005). Last interglacial atmospheric CO2
changes from stomatal index data and their relation to climate variations. Global and
Planetary Change, 49(1 2), 47 62.
Russo G.; Eva C.; Palau C.; Caneva A.; and Saechini A. (2000). The recent abrupt increase in
the precipitation rate, as seen in an ultra-centennial series of precipiation. Il Nuovo
Cimento, 23C(1), 39 51.
550 References
Saigusa N.; Yamamoto S.; Murayama S.; and Kondo H. (2005). Long-term carbon exchange
at a Takayama, Japan forest: Interiannual variability of carbon budget components in an
AsiaFlux forest site estimated by long-term ¯ux measurements. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology, 134(1 4), 4 16.
Saito M.; Miyata A.; Nagai H.; and Yamada T. (2005). Seasonal variation of carbon dioxide in
rice paddy ®eld in Japan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 135(1 4), 93 109.
Saleska S.R.; Miller S.D.; Matross D.M.; Goulden M.L.; Wofsy S.C.; da Rocha H.R.; de
Camargo P.B.; Crill P.; Daube B.C.; de Freitas H.C.; Hutyra L.; Keller M.; Kirchho V.;
Menton M.; Munger J.W.; Pyle E.H.; Rice A.H.; and Silva H. (2003). Carbon in Amazon
forests: Unexpected seasonal ¯uxes and disturbance-induced losses. Science, 302,
1554 1557.
Sanets E.V.; and Chuduk V.N. (2005). Sulphur atmospheric deposition in areas with dierent
anthropogenic loads in Belarus. Atmospheric Research, 77(1 4), 88 99.
Santer B.D.; Wigley T.M.L.; Boyle J.S.; Gaen D.J.; Hnilo J.J.; Nychka D.; Parker D.E.; and
Taylor K.E. (2000). Statistical signi®cance of trends and trend dierences in layer average
atmospheric temperature time series. J. Geophys. Res., 105(D6), 7337 7356.
Santer B.D.; Sausen R.; Wigley T.M.L.; Boyle J.S.; Achuta Rao K.; Doutriaux C.; Hansen
J.E.; Meehl G.A.; Roeckner E.; Ruedy R.; Schmidt G.; and Taylor K.E. (2003). Behavior
of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, re-analysis, and observa-
tions: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 1/1 1/22.
Scafetta N.; Grigolini P.; Imholt T.; Roberts J.; and West B.J. (2004). Solar turbulence in
earth's global and regional anomalies. Physical Review, E69(026303), 1 13.
Schlesinger M.E.; and Andronova N. (2000). Temperature changes during the 19th and 20th
Centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2137 2140.
Schlesinger M.E.; Ramankutty N.; and Andronova N. (2000). Temperature oscillations in the
North Atlantic. Science, 289(5479), 547.
Schlesinger W.H. (2005). Biogeochemistry: Treatise on Geochemistry, Vol. 8. Elsevier Science,
Berlin, 720 pp.
Schmidt G.A.; Ruedy R.; Hansen J.E.; Aleinov I.; Bell N.; Bauer M.; Bauer S.; Cairns B.;
Canuto V.; Cheng Y.; Del Genio A.; Faluvegi G.; Friend A.D.; Hall T.M.; Hu Y.; Kelley
M.; Kiang N.Y.; Koch D.; Lacis A.A.; Lerner J.; Lo K.K.; Miller R.L.; Nazarenko L.;
Oinas V., Perlwitz Ja., Perlwitz Ju., Rind D., Romanou A., Russell G.L., Sato Mki.,
Shindell D.T.; Stone P.H.; Sun S.; Tausnev N.; Thresher D.; and Yao M.-S. (2006).
Present day atmospheric simulations using GISS Model E: Comparison to in-situ, satellite
and reanalysis data. J. Climate, 19, 153 192.
Scho®eld N.; Burt A.; and Connell D. (2003). Environmental Water Qllocation: Principles,
Policies and Practices. Land & Water Australia, Canberra, 39 pp.
SchroÈder W. (ed.) (2000). Long and Short Term Variability in Sun's History and Global Change.
Science Edition, D-28777, Bremen-Roennebeck, 63 pp.
Schrope M. (2001). Consensus science, or consensus politics? Nature, 412(6843), 112 114.
Schulze E.-D. (ed.) (2000). Global Biogeochemical Cycles in the Climate System. Academic
Press, New York, 416 pp.
Schwarzenbach R.P. (2002). Environmental Organic Chemistry. Wiley, New York, 1314 pp.
Seidov D.G. (1987). Mathematical models of oceanic circulation. Earth and World, 5, 28 34
[in Russian].
Seiler-Hausmann J.-D.; Liedtke C.; and von WeizsaÈcker E.U. (eds.) (2004). Eco-eciency and
Beyond: Towards the Sustainable Enterprise. Greenleaf Publishing, Sheeld, U.K., 248 pp.
Sellers P.; Meeson B.W.; Hall F.G.; Asrar G.; Murphy R.E.; Schier R.A.; Bretherton F.P.;
Dickinson R.E.; Ellingson R.G.; Field C.B.; Huemmrich K.F.; Justice C.O.; Melack J.M.;
References 551
Roulet N.T.; Schimel D.S.; and Try P.D. (1995). Remote sensing of the land surface
for studies of global change: Models algorithms experiments. Remote Sensing of
Environment, 51(1), 3 26.
Sellers P.J.; Randall D.A.; Collatz G.J.; Randall D.A.; Dazlich D.A.; Zhang C.; Berry J.A.;
Field C.B.; Collelo G.D.; and Bounoua L. (1996). A revised land surface parametrization
(SiB2) for atmospheric GCMs. Part 1: Model formulation. Journal of Climate, 9(4),
676 705.
Shamir N.J.; and Veizer J. (2003). Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate? GSA Today, 13(7),
4 10.
Shugalei L.S.; Petrukhina A.N.; and Shapchenkova O.A. (2005). Biogeochemical cycles of
heavy metals in birch stands of the zone of technogenic in¯uence of the Berezovo hydro-
electric power station KAFEC. Siberian Ecological Journal, 1, 13 21 [in Russian].
Shutko A.M. (1987). Microwave Radiometry of Water Surface and Soils. Science Publ.,
Sieg C.H.; Meko D.; DeGaetano A.T.; and Ni W. (1996). Dendroclimate potential in the
northern great plains. In: S. Dean, D.M. Meko, and T.W. Swetnam (eds.), The
International Conference on Tree-Rings, Environment and Humanity: Processes and
Relationships between Tree Rings, Environment, and Humanity (Tucson, Arizona, May
17 21, 1994), pp. 295 302.
Siegenthaler U.; and Sarmiento J.L. (1993). Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the ocean.
Nature, 365, 119 125.
Sims D.A.; Rahman A.F.; Cordova V.D.; Baldocchi D.D.; Flanagan L.B.; Goldstein A.H.;
Hollinger D.Y.; Misson L.; Monson R.K.; Schmid H.P.; Wofsy S.C.; and Xu L. (2005).
Midday values of gross CO2 ¯ux and light use eciency during satellite overpasses can be
used to directly estimate eight-day mean ¯ux. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,
131(1 2), 1 12.
Singh H.B.; and Jacob D.J. (2000). Future directions: Satellite observations of tropospheric
chemistry. Atmospheric Environment, 34, 4399 4401.
Singh R.B.; Fox J.; and Himiyama Y. (eds.) (2001). Land Use and Cover Change. Science
Publishers, New York, 312 pp.
Skinner B.J. (1979). Earth Resources. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.,
76(9), 4212 4217.
Smeets E.; and Weterings R. (1999). Environmental Indicators: Typology and Overview. EEA
Technical Report No. 25, Copenhagen, The Netherlands, 19 pp.
Smil V. (1997). Global population and the nitrogen cycle. Scienti®c American, 6, 77 81.
Smith K.A.; Thomson P.E.; Clayton H.; McTaggart I.P.; and Conen F. (1998). Eects of
temperature, water content and nitrogen fertilisation on emissions of nitrous oxide by
soils. Atmospheric Environment, 32(19), 3301 3309.
Smith S.V., Swaney D.P.; McManus L.T.; Bartley J.D.; Sandhei P.T.; McLaughlin C.J.; Dupra
V.C.; Crossland C.J.; Buddemeier R.W.; Maxwell B.A.; and Wul F. (2003). Humans,
Hydrology, and the Distribution of Inorganic Nutrient Loading to the Ocean. BioScience,
53(3), 235 245.
Smitha A.; Rao K.H.; and Sengupta D. (2006). Eect of May 2003 tropical cyclone on physical
and biological processes in the Bay of Bengal. International Journal of Remote Sensing,
27(23), 5301 5314.
Sokolov V.A. (1971). Geochemistry of Natural Gases. Nedra, Moscow, 336 pp.
Soldatov V.Yu. (2007). Diagnosing the ocean atmosphere system using the percolation
model. Problems of Environment and Natural Resources, 5, 52 63 [in Russian].
552 References
Somes N.L.G. (1999). Numerical simulation of wet land hydrodynamics. Environment Inter-
national, 25(6 7), 773 779.
Soon W.; Postmentier E.; and Baliunas S. (2000). Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?
Ann. Geophysicae, 18, 583 588.
Soon W.; Baliunas S.; Idso C.; Idso S.; and Legates D. R. (2003). Reconstructing climatic and
environmental changes of the past 1000 years: A re-appraisal. Energy and Environment,
14(2 3), 233 296.
Sorochtin O.G. (2001). Greenhouse eect: Myth and reality. Herald of RANS, 1(1), 8 21
[in Russian].
Soros M.S. (2000). Preserving the atmosphere as a global commons. Environment Change and
Security Project Report. The Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, D.C., 6, 149 155.
Spoor M. (ed.) (2004). Globalization, Poverty and Con¯ict. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 339 pp.
Sportisse B. (2000). Box models versus Eulerian models in air pollution modelling. Atmospheric
Environment, 35(1), 173 178.
SRES (2000). Mission Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Special Report of Working
Group III, WMO/UNEP, Washington, D.C., 20 pp.
Stanley E. (1999). Scaling, universality, and renormalization: Three pillars of modern critical
phenomena. Reviews of Modern Physics, 71(2), S358 S366.
Stanley S.M. (2005). Earth System History. W.H. Freeman & Co., New York, 567 pp.
Stanley S.M.; Ward P.D.; and Brownlee D. (2005). Earth System History and the Life and
Death of Planet Earth. W.H. Freeman & Co., New York, 209 pp.
Starke L. (ed.) (2002). Vital-Signs 2002 2003: The Trends that Are Shaping Our Future.
Earthscan, London, 216 pp.
Starke L. (ed.) (2004). State of the World-2004: Progress towards a Sustainable Society.
Earthscan, London, 246 pp.
Steen W.; Sanderson A.; Tyson P.; JaÈger J.; Matson P.; Moore III B.; Old®eld F.; Richardson
K.; Schellnhuber H.; Turner II B.; and Wasson R. (2005). Global Change and the Earth
System. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 336 pp.
Stein A.F.; and Lamb D. (2000). The sensitivity of sulphur wet deposition to atmospheric
oxidants. Atmospheric Environment, 34(11), 1681 1690.
Stenseth N.C.; Ottersen G.; Hurrell J.W.; and Belgrano A. (eds.) (2004). Marine Ecosystems
and Climate Variation. The North Atlantic: A Comparative Perspective. Oxford University
Press, Oxford, U.K., 272 pp.
Stephens G.L.; Vane D.G.; Boain R.J.; Mace G.G.; Sassen K.; Wang Z.; Illingworth A.J.;
O'Connor E.J.; Rossow W.B.; Durden S.L.; Miller S.D.; Austin R.T.; Benedetti A.; and
Mitrescu C. (2002). The CloudSat mission and the a-train: A new dimension of space-
based observations of clouds and precipitation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, 83(12), 1769 1790.
Stevens C.; and Verne R. (2004). Renewable Bioresources: Scope and Modi®cation for Non-Food
Applications. Wiley, Brussels, 320 pp.
Stevenson, D.S.; Johnson, C.E.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; and Edwards, J.M. (2000).
Future estimates of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover: The
impact of climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(14), 2073 2076.
Stevenson F.J.; and Cole M.A. (1999). Cycles of Soils: Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Sulphur,
Micronutrients. Wiley, New York, 448 pp.
Stockwell D.Z.; Giannakopoulos C.; Plantevin P.H.; Carver G.D.; Chipper®eld M.P.;
Law K.S.; Pyle J.A.; Shallcross D.E.; and Wang K.Y. (1999). Modelling NOx from
lightning and its impact on global chemical ®elds. Atmospheric Environment, 33(27),
4477 4493.
References 553
Stoll-Kleemann S.; and O'Riordan T. (2004). The possible role of public private partnerships.
IHDP Update, 3, 6 8.
Stone R.S. (1998). Monitoring aerosol optical depth at Barrow, Alaska and South Pole:
Historical overview, recent results, and future goals. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 16565 16579.
Stone R.S.; Dutton E.G.; Harris S.M.; and Longenecker D. (2002). Earlier spring snowmelt
in northern Alaska as an indicator of climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D10),
ACL10/1 ACL10/15.
Straub C.P. (ed.) (1989). Practical Handbook of Environmental Control. CRC Press, Boca
Raton, Florida, 537 pp.
Strong A.E.; Kearns E.J.; and Gjovig K.K. (2000). Sea surface temperature signals from
satellites update. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(11), 1667 1670.
Sun V.; Baliunas S.; Demirchian K.S.; Kondratyev K.Ya.; Idso S.B.; and Postmentier E.S.
(2001). In¯uence of CO2 anthropogenic ¯ows on the climate: Unsolving problems.
Proceedings of Russian Geographical Society, 133(2), 1 19 [in Russian].
Suzuki A. (1992). Results of the collection of ®shes, and tropical to temperate migrant ®shes
coming to the Okhotsk Sea coast during 1989 to 1991 in Northern Hokkaido, Japan.
Proceedings of the Seventh International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea and Sea Ice, February
2±5, 1992, Mombetsu, Hokkaido, Japan. Okhotsk Sea & Cold Ocean Research Association
Publ., Sapporo, Japan, pp. 225±231.
Syvitski J.P.M.; Peckham S.D.; Hilberman R.; and Mulder T. (2003). Predicting the terrestrial
¯ux of sediment to the global ocean: A planetary perspective. Sedimentary Geology, 162,
5 24.
Syvorotkin V.L. (2002). Abyssal Decontamination of the Earth and Global Catastrophes.
Geoinformcenter, Moscow, 250 pp. [in Russian].
Talkner P.; and Weber R.O. (2000). Power spectrum and detrended ¯uctuation analysis:
Application to daily temperatures. Physical Review, Part A, E62(1), 150 160.
Tarko A.M. (2001). Investigation of global biosphere processes with the aid of a global spatial
carbon dioxide cycle model. Proceedings of the Sixth International Carbon Dioxide
Conference, Extended Abstracts (October 1 2, 2001, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan),
Vol. 2, pp. 899 902.
Tarko A.M. (2003). Analysis of Global and Regional Changes in Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle:
A Spatially Distributed Model, Interim Report IR-03-041. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 28
pp.
Tarko A.M. (2005). Mathematical Modeling of Anthropogenic Changes in Global Biospheric
Processes. Physics Mathematics Publ., Moscow, 278 pp. [in Russian].
Terborgh J. (1992). Diversity and the Tropical Rain Forest. Scienti®c American Library,
Terziev F.S. (ed.) (1992). Hydrometeorology and Hydrochemistry of USSR Seas. Vol. 1: Barents
Sea. Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 182 pp. [in Russian].
Terziev F.S.; Zatuchnoy B.M.; and Gershanovitch D.E. (1993). Okhotsk Sea. Gidro-
meteopress, St. Petersburg, 167 pp. [in Russian].
Tett S.F.B.; Stott P.A.; Allen M.R.; Ingram W.J.; and Mitchell J.F.B. (1999). Causes of
twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface. Nature, 399, 569 572.
Thomas W.; Hegels E.; Slijkhuis S.; Spurr R.; and Chance K. (1998a). Detection of biomass
burning combustion products in South East Asia from backscatter data taken by the
GOME spectrometer. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 1317 1320
Thomas W.; Hegels E.; Slijkhuis S.; Spurr R.; and Chance K. (1998b). Detection of trace
species in the troposphere using back-scatter spectra, obtained by the GOME spectrom-
eter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1317 1320.
554 References
Tol R.S.J. (2000). International climate policy: An assessment. IHDP Update, 3, 11 12.
Tooming H. (2002). Dependence of global radiation on cloudiness and surface albedo in Tartu,
Estonia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 72(3 4), 165 172.
Trites A.W.; Livingston P.A.; Mackinson S.; Vasconcellos M.C.; Springer A.M.; and Pauly D.
(1999). Ecosystem Change and the Decline of Marine Mammals in the Eastern Bering Sea.
Fisheries Center Res. Rep., Fairbanks, AL, 100 pp.
Troyan V.N.; and Dementiev I.A. (eds.) (2005). Sustainable Development and Economical
Management. St. Petersburg University Publ., St. Petersburg, 479 pp.
Twomey S. (1974). Pollution and the planetary albedo. Atmospheric Environment, 8,
1251 1256.
U.N. (2002). Activities of Intergovernmental and Non-Governmental Organizations of
UNFCCC: Article 6 (Education, Training and Public Awareness). UNFCCC Publ.,
New York, 203 pp.
Usbeck R. (1999). Modeling of Marine Biogeochemical Cycles with an Emphasis on
Vertical Particulate Fluxes. Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuÈr Polar- und Meeresforschung,
Bremenhaven, Germany, 112 pp.
Vakulenko N.V.; Kotlyakov V.M.; Monin A.S.; and Sonechkin D.M. (2006). Symmetry of
glacier cycles of the late Pleistocene from Vostok and Kupol C station data in the
Antarctic. Proceedings of RAS, 407(1), 111 115 [in Russian].
Valera F.; Thompson E.; and Rosch E. (1991). The Embodied Mind: Cognitive Science and
Human Experience. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, 292 pp.
Valette-Silver N.J., Hameedi M.J., Efurd D.W., and Robertson A. (1999). Status of the
contamination in sediments and biota from the western Beaufort Sea (Alaska). Marine
Pollution Bulletin, 38(8), 702 722.
Van der Leeuw S.E.; and Aschan-Leygonie C. (2000). A long-term perspective on resilience
in socio-natural systems. Proceedings of the Workshop on ``System Shocks System
Resilience'' (Abisko, Sweden, May 22 26, 2000), pp. 1 32.
Vanin P. (2002). Economic Growth and Social Development. Anno Accademico, Milan, Italy,
116 pp.
Varotsos C. (2004). Power-law correlations in column ozone over Antarctica. International
Journal of Remote Sensing, 26, 3333±3342.
Varotsos C. (2002). Climate change problems and carbon dioxide emissions: Expecting
``Rio 10''. Environ. Sci & Pollut Res., 9(2), 97 98.
Varotsos C. (2005). Power-law correlations in column ozone over Antarctica. International
Journal of Remote Sensing, 26(16), 3333 3342.
Varotsos C.; and Kirk-Davido D. (2006). Long-memory processes in ozone and temperature
variations at the region 60 degrees S 60 degrees N. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4093 4100.
Varotsos C.A.; and Kondratyev K.Ya. (1998). Total ozone dynamics in mid-latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere. Proc. of RAS, 359(6), 821 822 [in Russian].
Varotsos C.; Alexandris D.; Chronopoulos G.; and Tzanis C. (2001). Aircraft observations of
the solar ultraviolet irradiance throughout the troposphere. Journal of Geophysical
Research-Atmospheres, 106(D14), 14843 14854.
Varotsos C.; Ondov J.; and Efstathiou M. (2005). Scaling properties of air pollution in Athens,
Greece and Baltimore, Maryland. Atmospheric Environment, 39, 4041 4047.
Varotsos C.; Assimakopoulos M.N.; and Efstathiou M. (2007). Technical Note: Long-term
memory eect in the atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa. Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 7, 629 634.
Varotsos P.A.; Sarlis N.V.; and Skordas E.S. (2003a). Long-range correlations in the electric
signals that precede rupture: Further investigations. Physical Review, E67, 21109 21121.
References 555
Varotsos P.A.; Sarlis N.V.; and Skordas E.S. (2003b). Attempt to distinguish electric signals of
a dichotomous nature. Physical Review, E68(3), art. no. 031106.
Vasilyev A.V.; and Melnikova I.N. (2002). Short-Wave Solar Radiation in the Earth's
Atmosphere: Calculations, Measurements, Interpretation. St. Petersburg Sci. Center of
RAS, St. Petersburg, 388 pp. [in Russian].
Vaughan M.; Young S.; Winker D.; Powell K.; Omar A.; Liu Z.; Hu Y.; and Hostetler C.
(2004). Fully automated analysis of space-based lidar data: An overview of the CALIPSO
retrieval algorithms and data products. Proc. SPIE, 5575, 16 30.
Vay S.A.; Anderson B.E.; Conway T.J.; Sachse G.W.; Collins J.E.; Blake D.R.; and Westberg
D.J. (1999). Airborne observation of the tropospheric CO2 distribution and its controlling
factors over the South Paci®c Basin. J. Geophys. Res., 104(D5), 5663 5676.
Verma S.B.; Dobermann A.; Cassman K.G.; Walters D.T.; Knops J.M.; Arkebauer T.J.;
Suyker A.E.; Burba G.G.; Amos B.; Yang H.; Ginting D.; Hubbard K.G.; Gitelson
A.A.; and Walter-Shea E.A. (2005). Annual carbon dioxide exchange in irrigated and
rainfed maize-based agroecosystems. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 131(1 2),
77 96.
Vernadsky V.I. (1944). A few words about the noosphere. Progress in Present Biology, 18(2),
49 93 [in Russian].
Vernadsky V.I. (1977). Natural World Meditation: Scienti®c Thought as a Planetary Phenom-
enon. Science Publ., Moscow, 239 pp. [in Russian].
Vetrov A.A.; and Romankevich E.A. (2004). Carbon Cycle in the Russian Arctic Seas. Springer-
Verlag, Berlin, 332 pp.
Victor D.G. (2001). The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global
Warming. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 192 pp.
Vinogradov B.V. (1983). Quantitative expression for the function of soil moisture remote
identi®cation. Proceedings of Soviet Academy of Sciences, 272(1), 247 250 [in Russian].
Vital Signs (2005). Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C., 139 pp.
Vitousek P.M. (2004). Nutrient Cycling and Limitation: Hawai'i as a Model System. Princeton
University Press, Princeton, NJ, 232 pp.
Vogelmann A.M.; Flatau P.J.; Szcordrak M.; Markowicz K.M.; and Minnett P.J. (2003).
Observations of large aerosol infrared forcing at the surface. Geophys. Res. Lett.,
30(12), 1655, doi:10.1029/20022002GL016829.
Vogelsang T.J.; and Franses P.H. (2005). Are winters getting warmer? Environmental Modelling
& Software, 20(11), 1449 1455.
Voitov G.I. (1986). Chemistry and scale of present-day ¯ux of natural gases in dierent
geostructural Earth zones. Journal of All-Union Chemical Society, 31(5), 533 539 [in
Russian].
Voitov G.I. (1999). On cold methane degassing in the Earth's troposphere. Proceedings of
Geological Institute of RAS: Theoretical and Regional Problems. Science Publ., Moscow,
515, 242 251 [in Russian].
VoÈroÈsmarty C.J.; Hinzman L.D.; Peterson B.J.; Bromwich D.H.; Hamilton L.C.; Morison J.;
Romanovsky V.E.; Sturm M.; and Webb R.S. (2001). The Hydrological Cycle and Its Role
in Arctic and Global Environmental Change: A Rationale and Strategy for Synthesis Study.
Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S., Fairbanks, AL, 84 pp.
Wainwright J.; and Mulligan M. (eds.) (2003). Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in
Complexity. Wiley, Amsterdam, 352 pp.
Walker D.A.; Bockheim J.G.; Chapin F.S.; Eugster W.; King J.Y.; McFadden J.; Michaelson
G.J.; Nelson F.E.; Oechel W.C.; Ping C.L.; Reeburgh W.S.; Regli S.; Shiklomanov N.I.;
556 References
and Vourlitis G.L. (1998). Energy and trace-gas ¯uxes across a soil pH boundary in the
Arctic. Nature, 394, 469 472.
Walker G. (2003). Snowball Earth: The Story of the Great Global Catastrophe that Spawned
Life as We Know It. Crown Publishers, Washington, D.C., 269 pp.
Wallace J.M. (1998). Observed climatic variability: Spatial structure. In: D.L.T. Anderson and
J. Willebrand (eds.), Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability. Springer-
Verlag, Berlin, pp. 31 81.
Wallace J.M. and Thompson D.W.J. (2002). Annual modes and climate prediction. Phys.
Today, 55(2), 28 33.
Walsh J.E.; and Chapman W.L. (2001). Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observa-
tional data. Ann. Glaciology, 33, 444 448.
Wania R.; Prentice C.; Harrison S.; Hornibrook E.; Gedney N.; Christensen T.; and Clymo R.
(2004). The role of natural wetlands in the global methane cycle. EOS, 85, 466.
Wang P.-H.; Minnis P.; Wielicki B.A.; Wong T.; Cess R.D.; Zhang M.; Vann L.B.; and Kent
G.S. (2003). Characteristics of the 1997/1998 El NinÄo cloud distributions from SAGE-II
observations. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 5/1 5/11.
Wang Q.; Watanabe M.; and Ouyang Z. (2005a). Simulation of water and carbon fkuxes using
BIOME-BGC model over crops in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 131(3 4),
209 224.
Wang W.; Davis K.J.; Cook B.D.; Bakwin P.S.; Yi C.; Butler M.P.; and Ricciuto D.M.
(2005b). Surface layer CO2 budget and advective contributions to measurements of net
ecosystem atmosphere exchange of CO2 . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 135(1 4),
202 214.
Wange G.; and Archer D.J. (2003). Evaporation of groundwater from arid playas measured by
C-band SAR. IEEE Trans. on Geosci. and Remote Sensing, 41(7), 1641 1650.
Wania F.; Ho J.T.; Jai C.Q.; and Mackay D. (1998). The eects of snow and ice on the
environmental behavior of hydrophobic organic chemicals. Environmental Pollution,
102(1), 25 41.
Waple A.M.; and Lawrimore J.H. (eds.) (2003). State of the climate in 2002. Bull. Amer.
Meteorol. Soc., 84(6), S1 S68.
Ward P. (2002). Future Evolution. W.H. Freeman & Co., New York, 210 pp.
Ward P. and Brownlee D. (2004). The Life and Death of Planet Earth: How the New Science of
Astrobiology Charts the Ultimate Fate of Our World. W.H. Freeman & Co., New York,
210 pp.
Watanabe M. (2000). Mechanisms of the Decadal Climate Variability in the Midlatitude
Atmosphere Ocean System. Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo,
12, 157 pp.
Watson R.T.; Zinyowera M.C.; and Moss R.H. (eds) (1996). Climate Change 1995: Impacts,
Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scienti®c Technical Analyses. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 878 pp.
Watson R.T.; Noble I.R.; Bolin B.; Ravindranath N.H.; Verardo D.J.; and Dokken D.J. (eds.)
(2000). Land Use, Land-use Change, and Forestry. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., 377 pp.
Wauben W.M.F.; Van Velthoven P.F.J.; and Kelder H. (1997). 3d chemistry transport model
study of changes in atmospheric ozone due to aircraft-NO emissions. Atmospheric
Environment, 31(12), 1819 1836.
Weaver C.P. (2003). Eciency of storm tracks an important climate parameter? The role of
cloud radiative forcing in poleward heat transport. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 5/1 5/6.
References 557
Weber G.R. (1992). Global Warming: The Rest of the Story. Dr. Boettiger Verlag, Wiesbaden,
Germany, 188 pp.
Weeks S.J.; Pitcher G.C.; and Bernard S. (2004). Satellite monitoring of the evolution of a
coccolithophorid bloom in the Southern Benguela upwelling system. Oceanography, 17(1),
83 89.
Weis R.F.; Jahnke R.A.; and Keeling C.D. (1982). Seasonal eects of temperature and salinity
of the partial pressure of CO2 in seawater. Nature, 300, 511 513.
Weisenstein D.K.; Ko M.K.W.; Dyominov I.G.; Pitarui G.; Riccardully L.; Visconti G.; and
Bekki S. (1998). The eect of sulfur emissions from HSCT aircraft: A 2D model
intercomparison. J. Geophys. Res., 103(ND1), 1527 1547.
WEO (2002). World Energy Outlook. OECD/IEA, Paris, 533 pp.
WEO (2004). World Energy Outlook. OECD/IEA, Paris, 550 pp.
WEO (2005). Middle East and North Africa Insights. IEA, London, 600 pp.
Weller G.; and Lange M. (eds.) (1999). Impacts of Global Climate Change in the Arctic Region.
Intern. Arctic Science Com., Fairbanks, AL, 59 pp.
WHO (2000). WHO Report on Global Surveillance of Epidemic-prone Infections, Diseases.
Chapter 4: Cholera. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 18 pp.
WHO (2006). Cholera 2005. Weekly Epidemiological Record, 81(31), 297 308.
WI (2006). Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy. Annual Report 2005/2006,
Wuppertal, Germany, 57 pp.
WI (2007). Vital Signs: The Trends that Are Shaping Our Future. Worldwatch Institute,
Widmann M.; Jones J.M.; and von Storch H. (2004). Reconstruction of large-scale
atmospheric circulation and data assimilation in paleoclimatology. PAGES News,
12(2), 12 13.
Wielgolaski F.E. (ed.) (1997). Polar and Alpine Tundra. Elsevier, New York. 930 pp.
Wigley T.M.L. (1999). The Science of Climate Change: Global and U.S. Perspectives. Pew
Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA, 48 pp.
Wigley T.M.L.; and Raper S.C.B. (2001). Interpretation of high projections for global-mean
warming. Science, 293(5529), 451 455.
William A.J. (2004). Soil Physics. Wiley, Amsterdam, 384 pp.
Williams G.R. (2005). The coupling of biogeochemical cycles of nutrients. Biogeochemistry,
4(1), 61 75.
Wilson E.O. (2002). The Future of Life. Vintage Books, Hopkinton, MA, 256 pp.
Witness the Arctic (1994), 2(1), 1 15.
Wojick D.E. (2001). The UN IPCC Artful Bias, Glaring Omissions, False Con®dence and
Misleading Statistics in the Summary for Policymakers. Available at www.john-daly.
com/quests/un_ipcc.htm
Wood S.I.; Henao J.; and Rosengrant M.W. (2004). The role of nitrogen in sustaining food
production and estimating future nitrogen fertilizer needs to meet food demand. In:
A.R. Mosier, J.K. Syers, and J.R. Freney (eds.), Agriculture and Nitrogen Cycle: Assessing
the Impacts of Fertilizer Use on Food Production and the Environment. Island Press,
Washington, D.C., pp. 145 176.
Woodcock A. (1999a). Global warming: A natural event? Weather, 54(5), 162 163.
Woodcock A. (1999b). Global warming: The debate heats up. Weather, 55(4), 143 144.
WSSD (2003). Science and Technology for Sustainable Development, A G8 Action Plan (June
1 3, 2003, EÂvian-les-Bains, France), 4 pp.
Xu Y.; and Carmichael G.R. (1999). An assessment of sulfur deposition pathways in Asia.
558 References
Yabe T.; HoÈller R.; Tohno S.; and Kadahara M. (2003). An aerosol climatology at Kyoto:
Observed local radiative forcing and columnar optical properties. J. Appl. Meteorol., 42,
841 850.
Yakovets Yu.V. (ed.) (1997). Forecasting Theory and Future of Russia. International N.D.
Kondratyev's Fund, Moscow, 487 pp.
Yamagata T.; Behera S.K.; Luo J.J.; Masson S.; Jury M.R.; and Rao S.A. (2004). Coupled
Ocean Atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. In: C. Wang, X.-P. Xie, and
J.A. Carton (eds), Earth Climate: The Ocean Atmosphere Interactions. Springer-Verlag,
Berlin, pp. 189 212.
Yan H.; and Torres J.C.C. (eds.) (2007). Socio-economic bene®ts: Meteorological and hydro-
logical services. WMO Bulletin, 56(1), 76 pp.
Yohe G.; Malone E.; Brenkert A.; Schlesinger M.; Meij H.; Xing X.; and Lee G. (2006).
A Synthetic Assessment of the Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change from
the IPCC Perspective that Re¯ects Exposure and Adaptive Capacity. CIESIN, New York,
17 pp.
Yu R.; Zhang M.; and Cess R.D. (1999). Analysis of the atmosphere energy budget:
A consistency study of available data sets. J. Geophys. Res., 104(D8), 9655 9661.
Yue T.X.; Fan Z.M.; and Liu J.Y. (2005). Changes of major terrestrial ecosystems in China
since 1960. Global and Planetary Change, 48(4), 287 302.
Yurganov L.; McMillan W.; Dzhola A.; and Grechko E. (2006). 2006 Boreal Forest Fires:
Tropospheric CO Perturbations Detected from Ground and Space. American Geophysical
Union, Fall Meeting 2006, Washington, pp. 200 205.
Zaitsev S.I. (1988). Laboratory modeling of the C2 exchange processes between the atmosphere
and ocean. PhD thesis, Moscow State University, 170 pp. [in Russian].
Zavarzin G.A. (2003). The setting of biogeochemical cycles. Paleontology J., 6, 16 24 [in
Russian].
Zender C.S., Bian H., and Newman D. (2003). Mineral dust entrainment and deposition
(DEAD) model: Description and 1990s dust climatology. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14),
AAC8/1 AAC8/19.
Zhang H.; Henderson-Sellers A.; and McGue K. (2001). The compounding eects of tropical
deforestation and greenhouse warming on climate. Climatic Change, 49(3), 309 338.
Zhang Y-C.; Rossow W.B.; Lacis A.A.; Oinas V.; and Mishchenko M.I. (2004). Calculation of
radiative ¯uxes from the surface to top of atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global
data sets: Re®nements of the radiative transfer model and the input data. J. Geophys. Res.,
109, 1 27.
Zhu C.; and Anderson G. (2002). Environmental Applications of Geochemical Modeling.
Cambrodge Univ. Press., Cambridge, U.K., 298 pp.
Zhu J.; and Liu Z. (2003). Long-range persistence of acid deposition. Atmospheric Environment,
37, 2605 2613.
Zonneveld C. (1998). A cell-based model for the chlorophyll a to carbon ratio in phyto-
plankton. Ecological Modelling, 113(1 3), 55 70.
Zuev V.V. (2000). Destruction of the ozone layer: An ecological catastrophe or the greatest
mystery of the century? Proceedings of the Second Symposium on the Ecology of Siberian
Rivers and the Arctic (Tomsk, November 24 26, 2000), pp. 36 40 [in Russian].
Zwally H.J.; Giovinetto M.B.; Li J.; Cornejo H.G.; Beckley M.A.; Brenner A.C.; Saba J.L.;
and Yi D. (2005). Mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and
contributions to sea-level rise: 1992 2002. Journal of Climatology, 51(175), 509 527.
Index
absorption, 5, 33, 50, 116, 145, 227, 374 insolation, 63, 438, 457
accumulation, 145, 261 water, 20, 448, 508
acid, 148, 167
aerosol, 10, 18, 40, 46, 58, 66, 117, 149, 157, bacteria, 9, 185, 233, 477
291, 424 bacterioplankton, 179, 184
aorestation, 113, 149, 156 balance, 55, 119, 247, 260, 363
Africa, 14, 71, 105, 128, 283, 426, 482 biocomplexity, 327, 358, 405
agriculture, 50, 102, 113, 145, 149, 278, 495 biodiversity, 2, 13, 51, 116, 334, 507
Alaska, 384, 483 biogenic elements, 128, 369
albedo, 23, 42, 422 biogeochemical cycle, 13, 50, 107, 126, 217,
algorithm, 144, 291, 315 302, 359 454
altitude, 42, 45, 145, 258, 424 biomass, 42, 139, 148, 185, 331, 370
Amazon biosphere, 6, 102, 109, 141, 146, 196, 266
basin, 63, 445 biotic regulation, 149, 414, 498
River, 72 boreal forests, 141, 151, 337
ammonium, 43, 47, 228 bottom sediments, 176, 374, 397, 411
animals, 102, 163, 233, 244, 280 boundary
anthropogenic conditions, 65, 221, 352
activity, 6, 161, 165, 268 layer, 37, 180, 257
changes, 6, 60, 412, 453 burning, 9, 35, 49, 155, 280, 485
character, 16, 451
emissions, 45, 206, 303 carbon
factors, 20, 25, 33, 146, 272 assimilation, 12, 138, 141, 189, 430
forcing, 32, 157, 249, 451 cycle, 17, 48, 58, 135, 143, 160, 201, 472
impact, 25, 60, 108, 131, 139, 177, 201, 448 dioxide, 7, 12, 17, 117, 162, 283, 352
process, 3, 18, 100, 125, 138, 198, 288, 464 emissions, 143, 156, 468
warming, 68, 438 ¯uxes, 13, 137, 140, 188, 197
approximation, 184, 236, 265, 307 monoxide, 156, 301
Arctic Ocean, 48, 63, 117, 270, 336, 345, 373 reserves, 136
Asia, 14, 71, 105, 323, 441, 496 reservoirs, 136, 147, 160, 164
assimilation, 127, 136, 194, 202, 247 sink, 140, 145, 154, 338
Atlantic Ocean, 54, 365, 446 source, 9, 154
atmosphere, 5, 31, 42, 73, 144, 283, 438 carbonates, 142, 160
atmospheric Caspian Sea, 65, 334, 507
aerosols, 26, 149, 424, 432 cataclysms, 140, 201
circulation, 64, 267, 445 catastrophe, 16, 150, 329, 507
560 Index
cement, 142, 155, 442 environment, 110, 142, 148, 187, 289, 322,
China, 75, 104, 154, 283, 484 356
circulation, 141, 167, 269, 295, 336 equator, 174, 445
civilization, 74, 106, 109, 326, 454 erosion, 224, 337, 394
climate Europe, 14, 102, 131, 135, 154, 475
anomalies, 58, 441 eutrophication, 13, 130, 158, 240
change, 16, 35, 50, 65, 69, 107, 116, 135, 145, evaporation, 18, 148, 264, 275
352, 466 evapotranspiration, 32, 64, 127, 268, 361, 447
cooling, 39, 63, 208 evolution, 109, 151, 211, 332, 505
diagnostics, 29, 36, 339, 450
formation, 33, 49, 61, 152, 465 feedback, 18, 32, 65, 146, 342, 470, 498
model 49, 61, 116, 150, 253 fertilization, 139, 442
modeling, 27, 41, 429 fertilizers, 126, 213, 228
prediction, 58, 211, 447 food, 50, 132, 158, 177, 186, 228, 370
regime, 17, 24, 475 forest
system, 16, 32, 36, 60, 66, 137, 424 area, 113, 156
variability, 27, 56 ecosystem, 49, 190, 194
warming, 21, 31, 48, 54, 66, 150, 217, 421 ®res, 10, 146, 156, 250, 329, 477
clouds, 34, 46, 58, 149, 301, 467 fossil fuel, 42, 136, 163, 280, 303, 480, 496
coal, 153, 165, 282, 483 freshwater, 108, 339, 470, 495
coecient, 30, 40, 59, 166, 190, 222, 308 fuel burning, 42, 139, 241, 442
complexity, 44, 160, 229, 307, 471
computer model, 2, 404
gas, 59, 141, 152, 166, 198, 284, 480
concentration, 37, 45, 49, 59, 139, 144, 152,
geosphere, 6, 126, 135, 360
175, 246, 442
global
consumption, 104, 125, 128, 139, 154, 187,
carbon cycle, 49, 106, 135, 199, 280, 435
245, 490
climate 26, 42, 49, 54, 60, 152, 347, 433
correlation, 42, 210, 227
cooling, 68
cryosphere, 22, 340, 419
cycle, 140, 223
cultivated land, 112, 139, 155, 189, 510
database, 26, 222, 326
ecodynamics, 75, 95, 150, 311, 455
database, 153, 161, 254, 365, 510 instability, 146, 490
decomposition, 153, 158, 165, 176, 245, 369 model, 111, 135, 196, 216
deforestation, 51, 63, 98, 106, 113, 149 oscillations, 67, 356
degradation, 13, 452, 506 radiation, 49, 423
denitri®cation, 214, 230 uncertainty, 110
density, 38, 276, 364 warming, 25, 60, 67, 193, 431
detection 21, 56, 330, 342 globalization 15, 119, 224
detritus, 180, 242 greenhouse
development, 33, 58, 109, 124, 138, 177 eect, 1, 18, 33, 48, 66, 142, 146, 160, 213,
diusion, 174, 190 251
disasters, 122, 150, 334 gas, 24, 117, 145, 178, 216, 258, 338, 430
diseases, 128, 499 warming, 16, 58, 152, 353, 453
distribution, 37, 41, 45, 138, 146, 161, 181, groundwater, 105, 108
253, 302, 452
droplets, 41, 261 Hadley Centre, 66, 453
drought, 32, 63, 146, 329, 465 heat
dust, 11, 43, 74, 217, 499 balance, 55, 419
¯ux, 29, 34, 277, 430
earthquake, 150, 329, 499 heavy metals, 10, 361, 382
economic Heinrich events, 63, 342
development, 16, 58, 116, 326, 477 hurricane, 17, 58, 201, 327
growth, 119, 248, 483 human
ecosystem 64, 74, 144, 181, 260, 328 activity, 19, 24, 51, 100, 109, 113, 141, 156,
El NinÄo, 23, 65, 146, 440 208, 349
emission, 42, 49, 58, 68, 96, 142, 157, 430 capital, 124
emissivity, 4, 308 civilization, 102, 363
energy, 3, 18, 58, 103, 154, 241, 339, 468 development, 115, 129
Index 561
eects, 107 power, 9, 69, 484

health, 38, 86, 227, 478 numerical
humankind, 114, 119, 150, 157 experiment, 50, 65, 180, 240, 445
humans, 2, 15, 156, 177, 355 model, 4, 44, 511
humidity, 199, 299 modeling, 28, 42, 61, 65, 143, 152, 421, 476
humus, 152, 163, 194 nutrients, 149, 159, 368, 375
hurricane, 56, 150, 465
hydrocarbon, 9, 11, 49, 141, 156, 480 observational data, 20, 27, 44, 52, 56, 67, 248,
hydrogen, 8, 430, 485 432, 450, 476
hydrosphere, 6, 170, 216, 228, 431 observations, 26, 38, 45, 66, 145, 421
hypothesis, 39, 241 ocean, 4, 144, 166, 260, 437
oil, 10, 141, 153, 284, 378
ice Okhotsk Sea, 408
age, 53, 354 organic
cover, 28, 54, 339 matter, 130, 165, 176, 180, 214, 227, 280, 368
surface, 48, 467 pollution, 14, 130, 360
illumination, 148, 183, 198 oscillations, 64, 190, 508
indicator, 2, 47, 54, 95, 129, 150, 169, 222, ozone, 12, 17, 48, 59, 243, 303
251, 316 oxidation, 7, 219, 245, 284, 383
industry, 102, 155, 282, 499 oxygen, 7, 45, 130, 144, 159, 188, 221
information, 30, 37, 52, 58, 145, 150, 258,
272, 319, 464 Paci®c Ocean, 45, 57, 65, 270
insolation, 36, 62, 179, 262, 354, 443 paleoclimate, 36, 62, 349, 450
interactivity, 33, 335, 426 parametrization, 2, 34, 37, 148, 263, 362
partial pressure, 76, 167, 259, 413
knowledge, 110, 144, 160, 173, 198, 300, 505 people, 51, 67, 109, 163, 217, 490
Kyoto Protocol, 1, 19, 58, 67, 110, 140, 215 permafrost, 57, 193, 338, 343
phosphorus, 6, 158, 213, 226, 251
photosynthesis, 8, 137, 148, 153, 164, 191, 223
land, 21, 144, 158
phytoplankton, 166, 176, 223, 367
landscape, 158, 274, 355
pixel, 35, 73, 147, 266
lifetime, 49, 136, 149, 231, 249, 252, 338
pollution, 13, 145, 156, 217, 240
lithosphere, 6, 230, 243
population
living
density, 12, 158, 241
biomass, 136, 150, 153, 201
growth, 107, 490, 509
elements, 13, 159, 371
size, 108, 495
organisms, 128, 133, 178 poverty, 107, 116, 128, 151
precipitation, 23, 39, 61, 149, 192, 225, 260,
measurements, 145, 190, 267, 305, 317 275, 296, 337, 445, 465
methane, 1, 7, 12, 156, 280, 349 prediction, 56, 65, 148, 179, 211, 464, 504
Milankovitch mechanism, 61, 62 pressure, 170, 191, 278, 413
mineral resources, 114, 157, 241 primary production, 475
mineralization, 7, 128, 239 principle, 140, 356
moisture, 266, 270, 275, 392, 507 problem, 18, 47, 66, 142, 229, 304, 328, 386,
monitoring, 161, 208, 291, 344 454
mortality, 14, 370 production, 49, 64, 108, 139, 145, 157, 242,
477
nitrogen 2, 127, 189, 213 productivity, 155, 416, 471
cycle, 6, 126, 228, 241 progress, 62, 157, 338, 425
dioxide, 7, 12, 48, 216, 227
®xation, 6, 214, 239 radiation, 17, 28, 35, 42, 65, 72, 192, 264,
monoxide, 48 277, 350, 420
oxide, 31, 240, 303 radiative forcing, 31, 59, 156, 338, 420, 438
protoxide, 7, 12, 227, 235 radiometer, 297, 316
North America, 14, 102, 135, 448 radionuclides, 346, 370, 375, 393
Northern Hemisphere, 21, 43, 53, 161, 204, rainfall, 63, 265, 441
343, 457 regional
nuclear climate, 32, 61, 445, 464
energy, 69, 139, 484 model, 36, 61, 361, 450
562 Index
reliability, 160, 318, 430 temperature, 14, 36, 61, 168, 194, 264, 367,
renewable sources, 139, 485 476
reservoir, 140, 142, 146, 152, 163, 230, 401 territory, 12, 86, 138, 215, 276, 388
resolution, 61, 145, 424 thermocline, 175, 184, 244
resources, 113, 123, 132, 144, 157, 299, 474 transformation, 145, 158, 210, 254, 281
respiration, 13, 127, 137, 149, 163, 195 transpiration, 262, 275, 429
responsibility, 19, 69, 122, 124 trophic pyramid, 176, 184, 411
Russia, 52, 104, 131, 150, 282, 433 tropical cyclone, 23, 117, 464, 504
troposphere, 8, 21, 27, 35, 55, 65, 248, 291
salinity, 168, 188, 372, 441 tropopause, 40, 65, 253, 446
satellite, 44, 54, 63, 145, 172, 291, 424 trajectory, 99, 182, 407
savannah, 72, 155, 199, 265 tundra, 193, 199, 207, 337, 344
scenarios, 22, 50, 108, 129, 140, 201, 365, 453 turbidity 4, 253, 429
sea, 21, 29, 110, 131, 271, 354
sediment, 145, 159, 239, 374, 411 uncertainty, 61, 142, 157, 352, 426, 451
sedimentation, 163, 180, 219, 233 upwelling, 221, 259, 369, 441, 506
sensitivity, 60, 308, 387 urbanization, 51, 125, 415, 463
simulation utilization, 103, 142, 155, 282
experiment, 111, 381
model, 101, 478 variability, 31, 34, 39, 46, 52, 60, 144, 155,
sink, 127, 146, 164, 190, 198 207, 272, 349, 436, 472
size, 45, 73, 184, 261, 427 vegetation, 13, 50, 10, 112, 139, 155, 161, 194,
snow, 27, 48, 331, 349, 456 247, 260
social development, 109, 119, 362
soil
erosion, 98, 156, 197 water
humidity, 148, 429 balance, 156, 271, 385
moisture, 23, 190, 275, 331 consumption, 8, 108
±plant formation, 111, 164, 203, 361, 413 cycle, 17, 160, 261, 271, 279, 467
temperature, 196, 221, 238 ecosystem, 2, 13, 74, 240, 477
solar reservoir, 126, 223, 266, 346, 468
activity, 68, 292, 443 surface, 164, 222, 223, 325
energy, 18, 154, 263, 485 temperature, 183, 250, 362, 464
radiation, 33, 64, 247, 471 vapor, 11, 18, 28, 31, 148, 278, 285, 429, 445
source, 26, 63, 111, 152, 164, 247, 374 weather, 20, 58, 123, 294, 387, 470
South America, 14, 52, 301, 448 wetlands, 105, 142, 159 495
Southern Hemisphere, 21, 43, 53, 164, 343, wind, 10, 27, 116, 264, 268, 487
459 world
stability, 33, 100, 118, 129 Bank, 69
storm, 17, 71, 150, 299, 457 community, 101
stratosphere, 28, 59, 247 economy, 78, 116
structure, 132, 149, 156, 161, 178, 255, 288, energy, 78
406 health, 93, 241
substances, 51, 124, 232, 291, 404 market, 124, 132
sulfate aerosol, 46, 68, 438 population, 16, 84, 131
sulfur, 2, 8, 189, 217, 412 prices, 124
surface, 44, 145, 266 resources, 141, 480
survivability function, 386 World Ocean, 22, 30, 56, 68, 105, 144, 157,
sustainability, 15, 59, 95, 353 176, 202, 328, 438, 473
sustainable development, 16, 108, 311, 353
system, 13, 52, 99, 140, 182, 300, 460 zooplankton, 186, 370, 475
Printing: Mercedes-Druck, Berlin

Binding: Stein + Lehmann, Berlin

BiogeoChemCycles SD PDF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

BiogeoChemCycles SD PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Biogeochemical Cycles in Globalization and

Published in association with

SPRINGER±PRAXIS BOOKS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

ISBN 978-3-540-75439-8 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

Springer is part of Springer-Science + Business Media (springer.com)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2007941937

# Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK, 2008

Cover design: Jim Wilkie

Printed on acid-free paper

1 Globalization and biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.4 Global dynamics and biogeochemical cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

2 The role of biogeochemical cycles in global ecodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . 95

3 Numerical modeling of global carbon change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

3.6.2 The role of the World Ocean in carbon dioxide assimila-

5 Monitoring the cycles of chemical substances in the environment. . . . . . 291

5.3.8 Assessment of algorithm accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319

6 Multi-dimensional analysis of interactivity between global ecodynamics

7 Nature±society system and climate, its interactive component . . . . . . . . 419

In recent decades globalization has become widespread and civilization's activities

In addition to analyzing present trends in the way civilization is developing and

The book is aimed at specialists dealing with the development of information

1.1 Zonal and temporal dynamics of NEP for land ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

1.1 Characteristics of the most important greenhouse gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2.6 Energy consumption and living standarda in dierent countries. . . . . . . . . . 106

a.s.l. above sea level

CCGG Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas

DOE Department Of Energy

GCOS Global Climate Observing System

HDI Human Development Index

INDOEX INDian Oceanic EXperiment

MBB Marine Biota Block

NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement

pa Partial pressure in the atmosphere

SAVI Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index

Vladimir F. Krapivin was educated at the Moscow State University as a mathema-

1.1 GLOBAL CHANGES OF BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

1.1.1 Key aspects of global biogeochemical cycles

The global CO2 biogeochemical cycle is in the center of attention of scientists.

Table 1.1. Characteristics of the most important greenhouse gases.

Greenhouse Lifetime Anthropogenic Average Distribution Increase Percent

CO2 3±5 1,585.7 (84) 362 ppmv 76 0.5 99.438

NOx 100±150 97.5 (5) 308 ppbv 6 0.25 0.471

CH4 11 175.8 (9) 1,815 ppbv 13 1.0 0.084

Fluorocarbons 75±111 31.4 (2) 0.34±0.54 5 7 0.007

(1) SST variations;

In general, the eciency of these causes can be characterized by the following

Table 1.2. Greenhouse gases and global warming potentials (GWPs).

Gas 100-year DGWP

Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) 1 55

Nitrous oxide (N2 O) 310 5

HFC-23 (CHF3 ) 11,700 0.96

HFC-125 (C2 HF5 ) 2,800 0.75

HFC-134a (CH2 FCF3 ) 1,300 0.34

HFC-143a (CF3 CH3 ) 3,800 0.75

HFC-152a (CH3 CHF2 ) 140 0.28

HFC-227ea (C3 HF7 ) 2,900 0.69

HFC-236fa (C3 H2 F6 ) 6,300 0.75

HFC-43-10mee (C5 H2 F10 ) 1,300 0.75

Per¯uoromethane (CF4 ) 6,500 1.15

Per¯uoroethane (C2 F6 ) 9,200 0.75

Per¯uorobutane (C4 F10 ) 7,000 0.87

Per¯uorohexane (C6 F14 ) 7,400 0.75

Sulfur hexa¯uoride (SF6 ) 23,900 0.30

2.6 Energy consumption and living standarda in dierent countries. . . . . . . . . . 106

In general, the eciency of these causes can be characterized by the following

Coecient of molecular diusion in the air at temperature

A principal diculty in giving substance to the projections is the impossibility of