Intelligent Prediction Monitoring System for Predictive Maintenance in
Manufacturing
Junhong Zhou, Xiang Li, Anton J.R. Andernroomer
Hao Zeng, Kiah Mok Goh
Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology
71 Nayang Drive
Singapore
jzhou@Simtech.a-star.edu.sg
Abstract – This paper presents an intelligent prediction and
monitoring system for equipment failure prediction to support
equipment maintenance, diagnostics and prognostics in
manufacturing environment. The system architecture and
implementation techniques, such as agent framework, real-time
data acquisition and federated communication are briefly
described. Details are given on the intelligent prediction engine
which is the key component of the system. A case study for
machining tool useful lifetime prediction is presented to
demonstrate the usability of the system.
I. INTRODUCTION
Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)
technology allows facility operators and managers to
understand the overall operation status and health of critical
equipment. However, facilities and machines relying only
on monitoring and SCADA technology usually operate in a
reactionary mode - responding to failures and catastrophic
power losses, rather than predicting and preventing them
from occurring in the first place. This is reactive
maintenance. It is easy to understand that with reactive
maintenance, operation efficiency could be seriously affected
if critical facilities fail at critical periods. The other type of
maintenance is called scheduled or preventive maintenance,
which shifts plant downtime to non-critical periods. Since the
preventive maintenance does not take the actual machine
health into consideration, unnecessary machine shutdown
might be inevitable, which may incur unnecessary cost. In
view of the above, predictive maintenance has been actively
pursued in the manufacturing industry in recent years, where
equipment outages are predicted and maintenance is carried
out only when necessary. Benefits of predictive maintenance
include better utilization of the service life of equipment and
lower backup inventory. In an era of intensive competition,
where asset usage and plant operating efficiency must be
maximized, predictive maintenance becomes very important.
Successful realization of predictive maintenance depends a
lot on the effectiveness and implementation of a maintenance
scheme based on proper diagnostics and prognostics.
Prognostic is to detect an undesirable condition before it
degrades to a failure. Over recent years, extensive research
and development work has been devoted to prognostics and
its potential applications in equipment maintenance and
utilization. Development of intelligent maintenance system
framework for efficient information coordination and
development of diagnostics and failure prediction engine
have been the topics of many published works. An intelligent
0-7803-9252-3/05/$20.00 ©2005 IEEE 2314
Yoke San Wong, Geok Soon Hong
Department of Mechanical Engineering
National University of Singapore
Singapore
mpewys@nus.edu.sg
maintenance system framework was proposed by Loc and
Lee [1], which used a smart computational agent to predict
the likely degradation and loss of performance. Zhang [2]
introduced a novel architecture for an integrated fault
diagnostics/prognostics system, and used a data-mining
technology to extract an optimum feature vector, a fuzzy
logic expert system and static/dynamic wavelet neutral
network for fault detection/isolation as well as estimation of
the remaining useful lifetime of a failing components. Proha
[3] used Nation Information Infrastructure architecture for
on-line equipment monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics
services.
Besides the researches on the framework and architecture,
many researches focused on the development of diagnostics
and failure prediction engines for diagnostics/prognostics
applications. Two main approaches have emerged to realize
the prediction engine. The first one uses system model and
state estimation techniques to determine the remaining life of
the facilities in concern [4] [5]. The second method uses a
feature extractor and a learned association method to
estimate the remaining life [6] [7]. The first method needs
accurate system models while the second method requires
sufficient data that cover the lifetime of the equipment for
training and validation. In spite of these efforts, realization
of acceptable prediction is somehow still a goal to be
achieved. In addition, we noticed that the successful
prognostic implementations are mostly in the aerospace and
marine industries. Little has been reported in other
manufacturing areas, especially with manufacturing
equipment failure prediction.
In the present work, an intelligent prediction monitoring
system is developed based on an agent-based framework.
The system consists of three platforms according to their
roles and domains, namely embedded platform, intelligent
predictive engine (IPE) platform and remote platform. The
IPE is equipped with a multiple regression method and
consists of four major modules: feature selector, correlation
modular, error analyser, and predictor. The function of these
modules and the operation procedure of the IPE are discussed
in the following sections. The system has been tested
experimentally with the prediction of tool life on a milling
machine. The fairly good agreement between the prediction
result and real tool life data demonstrates the viability of the
system for prognostic applications.
II. SYSTEM STRUCTURE
2.1 System Frameworks and Architecture and implementation of these agents have been given
elsewhere [8][9].
Effective prognostics need on-line sensing, an integrated
data flow and processing within a communication framework TABLE1
EMBEDDED PLATFORM FUNCTIONS AND AGENTS
with well defined and fully specified communication
protocols and behaviour templates. In the present intelligent Agents Functions
prediction monitoring system, machine health information is Data agent Data Acquisition
acquired through real time sensing and pre-processing at Control agent Sensor control
Tuning agent Tuning (optional for Data Acquisition)
equipment level; the sensing data then flow to the Intelligent Training Agent Provisioning training data
Predictive Engine (IPE); IPE analyses these data and Command agent Providing feedback for command purposes
generates failure predictions; The prediction results finally (optional)
flow to the controller which alert operators for further
actions. Such information flows involve high-level activities Remote platform
like computing, optimisation, modelling, prediction and also
low-level activities like PLC control and embedded sensor. A This platform manages secure two-way communication
JAVA agent framework is suitable for such applications that with remote monitoring and control stations. It also provides
require integrating the high-level and low-level activities as facilities for monitoring, diagnostics and data logging. The
JAVA has the cross-platform compatibility and portability. functionality provided by the platform consists of distributed
monitoring, distributed control and distributed data
The architecture of our intelligent prediction monitoring management. The various agents and the associated
system based on JAVA agent framework is illustrated in Fig. functionality hosted by the platform are summarized in
1. TABLE 2.

TABLE2
REMOTE PLATFORM FUNCTIONS AND AGENTS
Agents Functions
GuiAgent graphical interface on a remote machine for
interpretation by the operator or a watchdog
application
DatalogAgent basic data logging services
TuningAgent tune the data acquisition from the sensor
RemoteDFAgent identify, generate event and event control
RemoteAMSAgent receive, acknowledge and send commands

Intelligent Predictive Engine (IPE) Platform

This platform supports the IPE and other downstream

Fig. 1. Three-platforms agent framework
The system consists of the following three Host Platforms:
• Embedded Controller platform
• IPE (Intelligent predictive engine) platform
• Remote Platform
Embedded Controller platform
This platform enables rudimentary data acquisition (pre-
processed or unprocessed) and basic controls for the sensors.
The various agents and the associated functionality hosted by
this platform are summarized in TABLE 1. The detail design
control tasks. The intelligent predictive engine can work
offline using the historical data or work on-line using
effective communication interface with the other two
platforms. The various agents and the associated
functionality hosted by the platform are summarized in
TABLE 3. The prognosAgent is primarily responsible to IPE
for all the services existing within the JADE framework for
the manufacturing environment. The agents support the
prognosAgent.
TABLE3
IPE PLATFORM FUNCTIONS AND AGENTS
Agents Functions
prognosAgent training, notification and prediction
GuiAgent graphical interface on a remote machine for
interpretation by the operator or a watchdog
application
DatalogAgent basic data logging services
TuningAgent tune the data acquisition from the sensor
RemoteDFAgent identify, generate event and event control
RemoteAMSAgent receive, acknowledge and send commands
2.2 Intelligent Predictive Engine (IPE)

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The IPE is implemented as prognosAgent in the Intelligent
Prediction System framework. The IPE architecture is
illustrated in Fig. 2.
Agent Framework Interface API
work at either on-line or offline mode. In the offline mode,
the correlation models are generated based on historical data
and prediction will be generated from the correlation model.
In the on-line mode, with on-line data, the correlation model
keeps on updating so that more accurate prediction result can
be obtained.

Fig. 3 depicts the IPE operating procedure, which shows

the mechanism for coordinating the main modules for the
Feature Correlation Error generation of a prediction.
Predictor
Selector Modular Analyzer

Data from Embedded Control Receive Command from GUI:

Platform & Remote Platform 1. Selected features.2. Datasets

Data Access Layer 1

Use multiple regression model
Store Data into the IPE DB generate correlation model

3
Knowledge
Database Base Evaluate model accuracy
Preprocess Data 4

Model accuracy
Fig. 2. IPE architecture Satisfied ?
No
Extract Features Yes

IPE consists of four major modules: feature selector, Generate Prediction using
correlation modular, error analyser, and predictor. A brief Correlation Model
description of these modules is given as follows: Evaluate Features

Yes
1) Feature Selector realizes the feature selection function. No
Suitable 1. Store prediction results into DB
Feature selection refers to the selection of an optimum subset Features ?
2. update remote platform and
of features that are most responsible to a given outcome. 2
Feature selection problems are found in all machine learning Store Features into DB
embedded Control Platform

tasks (supervised or unsupervised), classification, regression 5

and time series prediction. The objective of feature selection
is two-fold: improving the prediction accuracy and providing
a better understanding of the underlying concept that
generated the data. Genetic algorithm or principal component
analysis techniques can be used for feature selection.
2) Correlation Modular extracts, learns and establishes the
correlation between various features, characters and
parameters against fault values. Intelligent correlation
methods such as fuzzy, neutral network and multiple-
regression modelling can be used to generate the model
between features and fault.
3) Error Analyser evaluates the modelling fitness results
established from correlation modular. It also measures the
error for prediction accuracy.
4) Predictor predicts remaining lifetime of critical machine
or machine components based on selected feature inputs and
fault information. Offline predictor is realized now based on
the historical monitoring data.
These main modules, deployed in JAVA, are integrated
with the supporting Database (DB) and Knowledgebase
(KB). The IPE receives, extracts and uses data and
information from the agent framework and stores data in the
database as historical data for training purpose. The IPE can
Fig. 3. IPE Operating Procedure
The main steps involved are:
Step1: Acquire data from the sensors through the
embedded control platform in the agent framework.
Communicate with the remote platform, IPE platform
receives data and stores these data into the DB.
Step2: Pre-process raw data, extract and evaluate
features. This step is realized by feature extractor module and
suitable features are found through iterations.
Step3: User to determine features and select dataset for
model training. Multiple regression model method is used to
generate the correlation model based on the selected features.
This step is realized by the correlation modular.
Step4. Use error analyser to evaluate the model accuracy.
If the accuracy is not satisfactory, repeat step 2 and step3
until a satisfactory model is obtained.
Step5. Use the model to generate a prediction, store the
prediction results in DB and update the remote platform and
embedded control platform. The embedded control platform

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will act according to the prediction. 4 Maximum Force Level fm TWD
5 Total Amplitude of Cutting Force fa TWD
Combined Incremental Force TWD
III. CASE STUDY 6 df
Changes
7 Amplitude Ratio ra TWD
A case study was carried out to demonstrate the usability of
Standard Deviation of the Force TBD
the system. An application related to high speed machining 8 Components in Tool Breakage fstd
tool condition is selected for the experiment. Tool condition Zone
is an important factor in the automated machining process. Sum of the Squares of Residual TBD
Tool wear and tool failure may result in a loss in surface 9 sre
Errors
finish and dimensional accuracy of the finished parts, or 10 Peak Rate of Cutting Forces kpr TBD
possible damage to the work piece and machine [10].
11 Total Harmonic Power thp TWD

3.1 Experiment setting up and features extraction TBD, TWD,

12 Average Force Fa
TWE

Most of the CNC machines cannot detect the tool 13 Variable Force vf TBD
conditions in an on-line manner. Cutting force signal is 14 Standard Deviation std TWD
instead used to establish usable models due to its high 15 Skew skew TWD
sensitivity to tool wear, low noise, and good measurement 16 Kurtosis kts TWD
accuracy [11]. Our experiment about the tool condition is
shown in Fig. 4. * TBD: Tool Breakage detection; TWD: Tool wear detection; TWE: Tool
Wear Estimation.

3.2 Predict the wear-out with multiple regression models

The force signal and wear-out data were sent to the agent
framework and broadcasted to the IPE. The IPE was then
trained by the historical data, four-variable (fm, fa, Fa, std)
regression was used to generate the relation model between
wear-out and the features. Wear-out prediction was
calculated based on the regressed model. Two runs of
experiments were conducted. The results were summarized
below.

Experiment 1:
Fig. 4. Tool Conditions Experiment in Machinery Totally 52,800 sets of data were captured under the
following machine settings: Spindle speed 1000rpm, feed
The cutting force along the y-direction of the machining rate 200mm/min, depth of cut 1mm and insert number 2.
path was captured by the Kistler dynamometer in the form of Half of the data sets were used to conduct the training and
charges, and converted to voltages by the Kistler charge the other half to test the prediction model. Through data
amplifier. The voltage signal was sampled by the PCI 1200 processing, the experiment data were separated into two sets.
board at 2000 Hz and directly streamed to the hard disk of a In the first method, the first half of the data (1–26400) was
computer. The flank wear of each individual tooth of the used for the training, and the remaining (26401 – 52800) for
cutting tool was measured with an Olympus microscope. testing. The regression equation obtained from the training
Details of the experimental set up and feature extraction data is shown in equation. (1):
methodologies have been reported elsewhere [12]. Sixteen
main features were captured. These are summarized in Wear-out(t)=-0.205+0.667fm(t-1) – 0.609fa(t-1) + 8.856Fa(t-1) +
TABLE 4. Among the sixteen features, four of them, {fm, fa, 0.066std(t-1) (1)
Fa, std}, have been identified to have the most significant T-test was used to evaluate the significance of regression
influence to tool wear. coefficients. The T-test values for the coefficients are
respectively:
TABLE4
FEATURE EXTRACTION METHODOLOGIES (-206.14) (19.16) (-17.44) (0.31) (9.60)
F-test was used to test the overall significance of an observed
No Feature Notation Objective multiple regression. The F-test value is: 74,127.
1 Residual Error re TBD
2 First Order Differencing fod TWD The time series diagram comparing the prediction with the
real wear-out data is shown in the Fig. 5. The upper bound
3 Second Order Differencing sod TWD
and lower bound are based on 90% confidence level. The

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mean error of the prediction to the real wear-out is wear-out using the second pre-process strategy. This is
0.0598mm. The average relative error is 25.74%. The because the second set of training data covers the whole
estimation of variance is 0.0736. wear-out condition, while the first set of training data only
cover the beginning of the wear-out.
0.8 In order to test the robustness of equation (2), we used
0.7
other sets of data from another experiment with different
0.6
experimental parameters. The experimental condition,
parameters and results are described in Experiment 2.
wear out (mm)

0.5 prediction
real wear-out
0.4
upper bound Experiment 2:
0.3 lower bound
0.2
The purpose of the experiment 2 is to test the reliability of
0.1
equation. (2) by comparing the predicted results with real
0
wear out under slightly different machine settings. The
1
1483
2965
4447
5929
7411
8893
10375
11857
13339
14821
16303
17785
19267
20749
22231
following machine setting parameters were used for the
data sequence second experiment: Spindle speed 1200rpm, feed rate
150mm/min, depth of cut 1mm and insert number 2. Totally
56,800 data sets are captured. Half of the data were used for
Fig. 5. Prediction and Wear-out Comparison (Experiment 1) testing purpose. Prediction wear-outs were calculated by
equation (2) with the experimental feature data. The time
The prediction is not very good based on this model. series diagram to compare the prediction with the real wear-
Better to use experimental data, we modified the data pre- out data is shown in the Fig. 7.
processing using the second method with the same
experiment data. Experiment data were separated into two 0.7

sets: odd numbers of the data (1, 3, 5, ....) are used for 0.6
training and the even numbers (2, 4, 6, ....) of data for the
0.5
testing. The regression equation obtained from the training
wear-out (mm)

data is as in equation (2): 0.4 prediction

real wear-out
0.3
Wear-out (t-1) = -0.218-0.11 fm(t-1) +0.105 fa(t-1) +0.157 Fa(t-1) upper bound
0.2 lower bound
+0.118std(t-1) (2)
0.1
The T-test values for the coefficients are respectively
0
(-237.73) (-1.98) (1.868) (60.19) (29.52)
1
1652
3303
4954
6605
8256
9907
11558
13209
14860
16511
18162
19813
21464
23115
The F-test value for the overall significance is 218,954. -0.1
data sequence

0.7

0.6 Fig. 7. Prediction and Wear-out Comparison (Experiment 2)

0.5

0.4 prediction
The upper bound and lower bound are based on the
experiment 1. The mean error of the prediction to the real
wear-out

real wear-out
0.3
upper bound wear-out is 0.0186mm. The average relative error is 13.70%.
lower bound
0.2
The estimation of variance is 0.0368. The results of
0.1 experiment 2 shows that the correlation equation (2) is robust
0 and can be used for the tool wear-out prediction.
1
1548
3095
4642
6189
7736
9283
10830
12377
13924
15471
17018
18565
20112
21659
23206

-0.1
data sequence
IV. CONCLUSION

In the present work, an intelligent prediction monitoring

Fig. 6. Prediction and Wear-out Comparison (Experiment 1) system based on agent framework has been developed for
solving manufacturing prognostic problems. The system
The time series diagram comparing the prediction with the consists of three platforms: embedded Platform, Intelligent
real wear-out data are shown in Fig. 6. The upper bound and Predictive Engine (IPE) platform and remote Platform. The
lower bound are based on 90% confidence level. The mean IPE, consisting of four major modules (feature selector,
error of the prediction to the real wear-out is 0.0185 mm, The correlation modular, error analyser and predictor) has been
average relative error is 12.41%. The estimation of variance implemented with multiple regression method and embedded
is 0.0338. into the agent-based framework. The system has been tested
The prediction shown in Fig 6 is much closer to the real experimentally with the prediction of tool life on a milling

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machine. An acceptable prediction of the tool life has been Control Application Platform”, 9th International
achieved, which can be viewed as a demonstration of the Conference on Emerging Technologies and Factory
usability of prediction system in the manufacturing Automation (ETFA 2003), Lisbon, Portugal, Sept 16-19,
environment. 2003, pp 113-116
V. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
[10] Kuo, R. J. and Cohen, P. H. 1999, “Multi-sensor
This research is funded by A* STAR Singapore through a integration for on-line tool wear estimation through
Pilot Project “Integrated Manufacturing and Service radial basis function networks and fuzzy neural network,
Systems”. The continued support and encouragement of the “ Neural Networks 12, pp. 355-370.
A* STAR Singapore is gratefully acknowledgement.
[11] Altintas, Y., et al, “In process Detection of Tool Failure
VI. REFERENCES in Milling Using Cutting Force Models”, J. Engng Ind.,
Vol. 111, pp. 149-157. 1989.
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