2. What is the rationale and implications of technological forecasting?

The main purpose of technological forecasting is to make Decision-Making. However,

to understand the rationale it is necessary to first understand the terms
�Technology� and �Forecast�. The term Technology is defined as an �entire body of
methods and materials used to achieve [industrial or commercial] objectives." This
definition is adequate for our purposes since both goods and services are included
in the objectives to be achieved. Thus, technology will mean �the tools,
techniques, and procedures used to accomplish some desired human purpose�. It means
that the technology is not restricted to hardware only, but may include "know-how"
and "software."

The �forecast" is defined as "To estimate or calculate in advance or to make a

conjecture concerning the future." Combining the ideas of technology and
forecasting, then, a technological forecast is defined as �a prediction of the
future characteristics of useful machines, procedures, or techniques�. Important
points to note is that a technological forecast deals with characteristics, such as
levels of performance (e.g., speed, power, or temperature). It does not have to
state how these characteristics will be achieved, i.e., the forecaster is not
required to invent the technology being forecast. Even though the forecaster may
predict characteristics that exceed the limitations of current technical
approaches, the forecast need not state how these will be achieved. The
forecaster's obligation is fulfilled by warning that these limitations will be
surpassed.
Technological forecasting also deals with useful machines, procedures, or
techniques. In particular, this is intended to exclude from the domain of
technological forecasting those items intended for luxury or amusement, which
depend more on popular tastes than on technological capability. It does not seem
possible to predict these rationally; however, the forecaster might be concerned
with the means by which popular tastes will be formed, such as advertising or
propaganda. Finally, a technological forecast (just as any other forecast) has four
elements: the technology being forecast; the time of the forecast; a statement of
the characteristics of the technology; and a statement of the probability
associated with the forecast.

Implications
The question, "Why forecast technology?" has a false implication. It implies that
there is a choice between forecasting and not forecasting. But forecasting
technology is no more avoidable than is forecasting the weather. All people
implicitly forecast the weather by their choice of whether to wear a raincoat,
carry an umbrella, and so on. Any individual, organization, or nation that can be
affected by technological change inevitably engages in forecasting technol- ogy
with every decision that allocates resources to particular purposes. A change in
technology may completely invalidate a particular decision about allocating
resources. Every decision, then, carries within itself the forecast that technology
either will not change at all or will change in such a way as to make the decision
a good one. Given that technological forecasting is inevitable, however, there is
still the issue of what specific reasons people have for making technological
forecasts. In actuality, people make technological forecasts for the same reasons
they make other forecasts:

1. To maximize gain from events external to the organization

2. To maximize gain from events that are the result of actions taken by the
organization
3. To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable events external to the
organization.
4. To offset the actions of competitive or hostile organizations
5. To offset the actions of competitive or hostile organizations of production
and/or inventory control and for capital planning
7. To forecast demand to assure adequate staffing
8. To develop administrative plans and policy internal to an organization (e.g.,
personnel or budget)
9. To develop policies that apply to people who are not part of the organization

Most of the items on this list boil down to the idea of maximizing gain or
minimizing loss from future conditions. Each item could be a reason for
technological forecasting as well as for economic, business, political, or weather
forecasting.
To summarise, the implication of using forecasts is that it plays specific roles in
improving the quality of decision making by providing specific information.