Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Ore Geology Reviews

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / o r e g e o r ev

Undiscovered orogenic gold endowment in Northern Victoria, Australia

V.A. Lisitsin ⁎, D.H. Moore, A. Olshina, C.E. Willman
GeoScience Victoria, Department of Primary Industries, PO Box 4440, Melbourne 3001, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The northern part of the Victorian gold province (Australia) is covered by Cainozoic sediments and remains
Received 21 October 2009 poorly explored. This contiguous covered area of over 44 000 km2 is highly prospective for orogenic gold
Received in revised form 6 March 2010 deposits. This paper discusses results of probabilistic quantitative assessments of undiscovered gold potential
Accepted 31 March 2010
in the northern, covered parts of the Western Lachlan Orogen (the Stawell, Bendigo and Melbourne zones).
Available online 10 April 2010
For the Bendigo and Stawell zones, quantitative estimates were only made for undiscovered mesozonal
Keywords:
orogenic gold–quartz vein deposits — the predominant type of gold mineralisation in that region. For the
Quantitative mineral resource assessment northern part of the Bendigo Zone under cover (10 000 km2), the mean estimate is approximately 1000 t,
Orogenic gold with a 90% probability of at least 290 t, of gold in undiscovered mesozonal orogenic gold deposits. For the
Endowment northern, covered area of the Stawell Zone (30 000 km2), the mean estimate is 1200 t, with a 90% probability
Palaeozoic of at least 200 t, of undiscovered gold. The northern part of the Melbourne Zone (4400 km2) is considered
prospective for epizonal orogenic gold deposits associated with quartz–pyrite–arsenopyrite veins and
stockworks or with quartz–stibnite–gold veins. The mean estimate for that area is 90 t, with a 90%
probability of at least 10 t, of gold in undiscovered epizonal orogenic gold deposits.
Crown Copyright © 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction 2. Geological setting and gold mineralization

The Palaeozoic Victorian gold province in south-eastern Australia
has produced over 2500 t (80 Moz) of gold and hosts the giant
Bendigo goldfield (N700 t Au of total historic gold production), as well
as three other goldfields with over 100 t of total historic gold
production (Phillips et al., 2003). Current mining produces approx-
imately 7 t of gold a year. Almost all gold production has been from
areas where Lower Palaeozoic rocks are mostly exposed at the surface,
mainly from the Stawell, Bendigo and Melbourne zones (VandenBerg
et al., 2000; Birch, 2003). The northern part of the province is largely
covered by Cainozoic sediments of the Murray Basin and only a few
gold occurrences have been discovered within this area. Yet, this
covered, poorly explored area may be expected to have the highest
potential for significant new discoveries.
To quantify how much gold may be present in this covered area,
GeoScience Victoria completed quantitative assessments of undiscov-
ered gold endowment in the northern, covered parts of the most
productive region of the Victorian gold province, in the Stawell, Bendigo
and Melbourne zones (Lisitsin et al., 2007, 2009, 2010). These estimates
can be used in making more informed business decisions on exploration
in the poorly explored areas and for government planning.
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 3 9658 4522; fax: +61 3 9658 4555.
E-mail address: Vladimir.Lisitsin@dpi.vic.gov.au (V.A. Lisitsin).
2.1. Regional geology
The Victorian gold province lies in the southern part of the
Palaeozoic Lachlan Orogen (Birch, 2003). This accretionary fold belt
formed along the convergent Pacific margin of Gondwana from the
Cambrian to the Early Carboniferous, by three major orogenic
events, variably manifested across the fold belt: the Benambran
Orogeny (∼ 455 to 425 Ma), the Bindian Orogeny (∼ 415 to 410 Ma)
and the Tabberabberan Orogeny (∼ 390 to 380 Ma). Based on some
regional variations of the geological history, the Lachlan Orogen is
divided into the western, central and eastern subprovinces (Gray et
al., 2002, 2003; Champion et al., 2009), which are further subdivided
into structural zones (Fig. 1).
The Western Lachlan Orogen (the Whitelaw Terrane of Vanden-
Berg et al., 2000) includes the Stawell, Bendigo and Melbourne zones
(Gray et al., 2003; Champion et al., 2009). It is the most productive
part of the Victorian gold province. It accounts for over 90% of the total
Victorian historic gold production and hosts all known goldfields with
over 30 t (∼ 1 Moz) of gold produced from primary deposits. The
following discussion will be restricted to this part of Victoria.
At the current erosional level, the Western Lachlan Orogen is
dominated by regionally deformed Cambrian to Devonian turbidites
and associated pelagic shales, intruded by late- to post-tectonic Late
Silurian to Late Devonian granites and covered by Late Devonian to
Quaternary sedimentary and volcanic rocks (Fig. 1). The age of the
Palaeozoic sedimentary rocks broadly decreases from west to east,

0169-1368/$ – see front matter. Crown Copyright © 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.oregeorev.2010.03.007
252 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269

Fig. 1. Location, structure and gold mineralisation in the Western Lachlan Orogen (WLO). Geology is not shown for the Delamerian Orogen (west of the Moyston Fault) and the
Central Lachlan Orogen and Eastern Lachlan Orogen (east of the Governor Fault, CLO and ELO). Other abbreviations on the map: H — the Heathcote goldfield, WP — the Woods Point
goldfield; M — the Moornambool Metamorphic Complex.

from Cambrian in the Stawell Zone to Ordovician in the Bendigo Zone
and to mostly Silurian and Devonian in the Melbourne Zone.
Interpretation of the recent (2006) deep seismic data for central and
western Victoria (Fig. 2) confirmed broad similarities in the crustal
architecture and geological history of the Stawell and Bendigo zones, as
opposed to the Melbourne Zone (Cayley et al, submitted). The Stawell
and Bendigo zones are composed of Cambrian oceanic and arc-related
metavolcanic and interbedded metasedimentary rocks, overlain by
thick Cambrian to Early Ordovician metaturbidites in the Stawell Zone
and Cambrian? to Middle Ordovician metaturbidites in the Bendigo
Zone. Cambrian metavolcanic rocks are exposed in the Moornambool
Metamorphic Complex at the western margin of the Stawell Zone and
along the Avoca and Mount William faults. Interpretation of the recent
(2006) seismic data shows that the structurally thickened metavolcanic
and associated metasedimentary rocks form a contiguous lower crustal
region below a depth of approximately 6 km in the Stawell Zone and
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269

Fig. 2. Interpreted composite cross section of the Western Lachlan Orogen, along seismic lines of the 2006 deep seismic survey (adapted from Willman et al, in press).
253
254 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
approximately 15 km in the Bendigo Zone (Fig. 2; Cayley et al, in press;
Willman et al, in 2010).
The Melbourne Zone has a completely different middle and lower
crust. It is underlain by the older Neoproterozoic? to Cambrian
continental crust of the Selwyn Block (Cayley et al., 2002; Champion
et al., 2009). In the erosional windows in the south and east, the
Selwyn Block can be seen to include Cambrian felsic volcanic rocks,
basalt and metagabbro. Elsewhere it is interpreted to be buried by up
to 15 km of Palaeozoic turbidites.
The age of the oldest major regional deformation also tends to young
eastwards from zone to zone, reflecting an eastward-directed accretion
of the new crustal elements against Gondwana. The earliest regional
deformation and metamorphism in the Stawell Zone was associated
with the Delamerian Orogeny (∼500 to 490 Ma). It is recorded in the
Moornambool Metamorphic Complex (Miller et al., 2005) and probably
also extended further east as far as the Avoca Fault (Willman et al, in
2010). The Benambran Orogeny (∼455 to 440 Ma) was the earliest and
the most significant regional tectonic event to affect the Bendigo Zone.
The many older 40Ar/39Ar ages between 460 and 440 Ma determined
from metamorphic and hydrothermal muscovites in the Stawell Zone
east of the Moornambool Metamorphic Complex (Foster et al., 1999;
Bierlein et al., 2001; Fu et al., 2009) suggest that the Benambran Orogeny
was also a major tectonic event in the Stawell Zone. A more localised
Bindian tectonic episode at ∼420 to 410 Ma caused reactivation of older
faults in the Stawell and Bendigo zones and was followed by the
Tabberabberan Orogeny (∼390 to 380 Ma). This was the only significant
tectonic event in the Melbourne Zone and it affected the entire Lachlan
Fold Belt (Coney et al. 1990).
The peak regional metamorphic grade in the Stawell Zone reached
the amphibolite facies in the Moornambool Metamorphic Complex and
the biotite zone of the greenschist facies elsewhere. In the Bendigo Zone,
regional metamorphism associated with the Benambran Orogeny
reached the chlorite zone of the greenschist facies in the west but
only the prehnite–pumpellyite facies in the east (Offler et al., 1998;
VandenBerg et al., 2000; Birch, 2003). The regional metamorphic grades
in the Melbourne Zone are poorly constrained but generally low,
increasing from probably below the zeolite facies in the west to the
prehnite–pumpellyite and up to the lower greenschist facies in the east
(Offler et al., 1998; Birch, 2003; VandenBerg et al., 2006).
Widespread mostly felsic to intermediate intrusions were
emplaced across the Western Lachlan Orogen in the Late Silurian–
Early Devonian (420 to 400 Ma, in the Stawell Zone and the western
Bendigo Zone) and in the Middle to Late Devonian (380 to 365 Ma, in
the Melbourne and Bendigo zones and southeastern Stawell Zone).
Large parts of the Western Lachlan Orogen are covered by up to
several hundred metres of Late Devonian to Cainozoic sedimentary
and volcanic rocks. These are mostly in the northern and southern
parts of central and western Victoria, reducing outcrops of the orogen
to the Western Uplands (Birch, 2003).
2.2. Gold mineralisation
Gold mineralisation is widely, but unevenly, distributed in the
Western Lachlan Orogen. The Bendigo Zone is by far the most richly
endowed part of the Victorian gold province. It has produced more than
2000 t of gold, with approximately 60% of production coming from
alluvial deposits (Phillips and Hughes, 1996, 1998; Phillips et al., 2003).
The Bendigo Zone hosts six out of nine Victorian goldfields with more
than 30 t (∼ 1 Moz) of primary gold production plus identified
remaining resources. These include the Bendigo goldfield with N560 t
Au (primary gold production only), the Fosterville goldfield (N65 t Au,
including remaining resources) and 23 other primary gold ore fields
with over 0.8 t of contained gold (Lisitsin et al., 2007). The Stawell Zone
has produced more than 200 t of gold (Phillips and Hughes, 1996, 1998;
Phillips et al., 2003) mostly from the west. It hosts the Stawell goldfield
(N135 t Au, including remaining resources), as well as seven other
primary goldfields with over 0.8 t of gold (Lisitsin et al., 2009). Total
historic gold production from the Melbourne Zone is estimated to be
134 t (Phillips and Hughes, 1996, 1998; Phillips et al., 2003), mostly
from the Walhalla–Woods Point belt in the east (VandenBerg et al.,
2006).
Recent studies on the geochronology of gold mineralisation in
Victoria (Foster et al., 1999; Arne et al., 2001; Bierlein et al., 2001; Fu
et al., 2007, 2009) indicated that gold deposits in the Western Lachlan
Orogen formed in three distinct events, 455 to 435 Ma, at 420 to
400 Ma and 380 to 370 Ma. The first event (∼ 440 Ma) was the main
phase of gold mineralisation in the region, forming most deposits in
the Bendigo and Stawell zones, including the Bendigo goldfield. It
coincided with the late stages of the Benambran Orogeny. The ∼420 to
400 Ma event was a relatively minor phase, broadly synchronous with
the initial stage of intrusive magmatism in the Western Lachlan
Orogen and the Bindian Orogeny. Several deposits in the Bendigo and
Stawell zones formed at this time, most importantly the ∼10 t Au
Wonga deposit at Stawell (Miller et al., 2006). The ∼ 375 Ma event
formed all the gold deposits in the Melbourne Zone and a minority of
deposits in the rest of the Western Lachlan Orogen — mostly in the
eastern Bendigo Zone, including the Fosterville goldfield. This gold
event post-dated the main phase of the Tabberabberan Orogeny.
Mineralisation was introduced shortly after, or rarely coeval with, the
regional emplacement of dykes across the Western Lachlan Orogen. It
occurred just before the widespread intrusion of felsic plutons at
∼365 Ma (VandenBerg et al., 2006).
Investigations of fluid inclusions (Cox et al., 1995; Gao and Kwak,
1995; Changkakoti et al., 1996; Mernagh, 2001), mineralogy and
lithogeochemistry of gold mineralisation (Hughes et al., 1997; Gao
and Kwak, 1997; Bierlein et al., 1998, 2000; Arne et al., 2008) indicated
that gold deposits formed during different phases of gold mineralisation
typically have significantly different mineralogical and geochemical
characteristics. These characteristics also show broad regional varia-
tions. Primary gold deposits in the Western Lachlan Orogen can be
subdivided into two major distinct types, based on a combination of
their mineralogical and geochemical composition, age, spatial distribu-
tion and physico-chemical characteristics of mineralising fluids
(Changkakoti et al., 1996; Hughes et al., 1997; Ramsay et al., 1998;
Bierlein et al., 2001, 2004; Moore, 2007).
Most primary gold deposits in the Western Lachlan Orogen, which
account for more than 95% of past production, are characterised by free
gold in quartz veins, with minor sulphides and ferroan carbonates.
These gold–quartz vein deposits are well studied and described in many
reviews (e.g., Junner, 1920, 1921; Bowen and Whiting, 1975; Phillips
and Hughes, 1996, 1998; Ramsay et al., 1998; Solomon, 2000; Phillips
et al., 2003; Bierlein et al., 2004). This is the dominant deposit type in the
Stawell and Bendigo zones (comprising all deposits formed at ∼440 Ma
and most deposits formed at ∼420 to 400 Ma) and in the Walhalla–
Woods Point belt of the Melbourne Zone (∼375 Ma). Such deposits
were described as ‘gold only quartz vein’, ‘turbidite-hosted quartz-gold’,
‘slate-belt’, ‘mesothermal gold’, etc. They have also been previously
classified as mesozonal orogenic (Bierlein et al., 2004; Goldfarb et al.,
2005; Moore, 2007).
The spatial distribution of gold–quartz vein deposits is described
by the Stawell–Ararat, Ballarat and Woods Point pyrite–arsenopyrite
mineralogical domains and the Landsborough–Percydale silver–lead
mineralogical domain of Hughes et al. (1997), Phillips et al. (2003)
and Hughes (2004).
Gold–quartz veins usually occupy dilational sites associated with
faults and fold axes. The host rocks are typically folded, faulted and
regionally metamorphosed (usually to the greenschist facies) Cam-
brian to Devonian turbidites and, less commonly, Cambrian meta-
volcanic and sedimentary rocks and Devonian dykes.
Sulphides typically constitute only a few per cent of vein material,
but in some ore bodies (for example, at Stawell) sulphides become a
major or even a dominant ore component. Sulphide minerals are
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
mostly dominated by pyrite (occasionally — pyrrhotite) and arseno-
pyrite, with subordinate chalcopyrite, sphalerite and galena and
locally (e.g., in the Walhalla–Woods Point belt) — sulfosalt minerals
(boulangerite, bournonite and tetrahedrite). Characteristically, stib-
nite is either absent (or occurs in trace amounts), or clearly represents
a distinct late paragenetic phase. Gold–quartz vein deposits have
relatively low antimony concentrations (b20 ppm Sb, usually
b10 ppm, from data in Bierlein et al., 2000; Arne et al., 2008) Native
gold occurs both as predominant free grains and as sub-microscopic
inclusions in sulphides. In the Bendigo Zone, gold is usually of a
fineness greater than 920 (1000 × Au / (Au + Ag)). However, in many
deposits in the Stawell Zone it is between 800 and 900 and often drops
below 750 (e.g., at St Arnaud; Hughes et al., 1997; Lisitsin et al., 2009).
In the Walhalla–Woods Point belt of the Melbourne Zone, gold
fineness usually varies from 800 to 880 (Junner, 1920; Hughes et al.,
1997; M. Hough, unpubl.).
The mineralised structures are usually brittle–ductile bedding-
parallel or discordant (often axial-plane fold-related) reverse faults
and associated vein arrays in turbidite-hosted deposits, shallow ‘ladder
veins’ in dykes, or faulted boundaries of dykes or larger intrusions
(Junner, 1921). Mineralised faults typically have only minor displace-
ments — from less than 1 m to tens of metres (Willman, 2007).
Individual quartz veins are usually up to several metres thick (rarely —
more than 20 m thick) and can be traced for many hundreds of metres
both along strike and vertically. Auriferous quartz veins are often
grouped into vein systems (primary goldfields, Willman, 2007) which
can form mineralised areas covering up to 150 km2. Goldfields tend to be
separated from major, large-displacement, crustal-scale faults by poorly
mineralised zones, typically N1 km-wide and often 3 km to 7 km-wide
(Willman, 2007; Lisitsin and Willman, 2009; Willman et al, 2010).
Investigations of fluid inclusions, mineralogy and geochemistry of
gold–quartz vein deposits indicated mineralisation from low-salinity
(b10% NaCl) H2O–CO2–H2S ± CH4 fluids at temperatures of 300 °C to
350 °C, rising to ∼450 °C at Stawell (Cox et al., 1995; Gao and Kwak,
1995; Changkakoti et al., 1996; VandenBerg et al., 2000). This style is
identical to the low-sulphide gold–quartz veins of Berger (1986a) and
Drew (2003) and the mesothermal lode-gold of Hodgson (1993).
A less common, and much less economically productive in the past,
group of primary gold deposits in the Western Lachlan Orogen is
characterised by the prevalence of refractory, or ultra-fine (usually
b10 μm), gold in sulphide grains (arsenopyrite and pyrite in thin veins
and stockworks or disseminated in turbidites), or by free and sub-
microscopic gold in stibnite–quartz veins. These deposits typically
contain stibnite, either as a minor component in quartz–pyrite–
arsenopyrite refractory gold deposits or as a major to dominant
mineral in stibnite–quartz veins. Accordingly, ores in these deposits
have anomalously high concentrations of antimony. Quartz–pyrite–
arsenopyrite refractory gold deposits typically have N20 ppm Sb and
usually N100 ppm Sb. Ores in stibnite–quartz vein gold–antimony
deposits usually contain N1% Sb and often even N25%–30% of Sb; these
deposits often produced stibnite concentrate as the main mine
product (e.g., at Costerfield).
Deposits of this style in Victoria have been reviewed by Hughes et al.
(1997), Bierlein and Maher (2001), Phillips et al. (2003), Bierlein et al.
(2004). Many of these deposits have been previously described as
‘disseminated’ (Baragwanath, 1946; Bowen and Whiting, 1975; Ramsay
et al., 1998; Bierlein and Maher, 2001; Phillips et al., 2003), ‘epithermal’
‘Au–Sb–As’ or ‘Sb–Au’ (Changkakoti et al., 1996; Ramsay et al., 1998)
and considered possible analogues to sediment-hosted Carlin-style
deposits (Hughes et al., 1997). They have also been previously classified
as epizonal orogenic gold deposits (Bierlein et al., 2004; Goldfarb et al.,
2005; Moore, 2007).
Spatial distribution of gold deposits of this type is mostly defined by
the Warrandyte sub-province of Whiting and Bowen (1976) and the
Costerfield stibnite domain of Hughes et al. (1997). High-antimony
deposits represent the dominant deposit type (and the only one of
255
economic significance in the past) in the Melbourne Zone outside the
Walhalla–Woods Point belt (e.g., Junner, 1921; Ramsay et al., 1998). In
contrast, only a few gold deposits of this type are known in the Bendigo
Zone (mostly in the east) and the Stawell Zone. However, the Bendigo
Zone hosts the N65 t Au Fosterville goldfield — the largest known high-
Sb gold ore field in Victoria. Most high-Sb deposits probably formed at
380 to 370 Ma across the Western Lachlan Orogen, but several similar
deposits possibly also formed at ∼420 to 400 Ma (Bierlein et al., 2001; Fu
et al., 2007, 2009).
Fluid inclusion data indicate that gold mineralisation was associated
with low-salinity (b10% NaCl) H2O–CO2 ± H2S ± CH4 ± N2 fluids at
temperatures between b200 °C and 280 °C (Gao and Kwak, 1995; Gao
et al., 1995; Changkakoti et al., 1996; Mernagh, 2001). Deposits of this
group are equivalent to gold-only deposits of the Costerfield (stibnite)
mineralogical domain of Hughes et al. (1997) and Phillips et al. (2003).
They are very similar to gold–antimony deposits of Berger (1993) and
share many characteristics with sediment-hosted gold deposits of
Berger (1986b) and Mosier et al. (1992).
The genesis of gold deposits from both described types is most
often ascribed to the metamorphic devolatilization of volcanic and
sedimentary rocks deep in the crust, related to orogenic to post-
orogenic thermal events (Phillips and Powell, 1993; Solomon, 2000;
VandenBerg et al., 2000; Phillips et al., 2003; Bierlein et al., 2004). In
this paper, we refer to the described gold deposits as ‘orogenic’,
following the classification of Groves et al. (1998). We further
subdivide them into the mesozonal (the gold–quartz vein group)
and epizonal (high-Sb, ∼375 Ma group) subtypes of Groves et al.
(1998), consistent with classifications of Victorian gold deposits by
Bierlein et al. (2004), Goldfarb et al. (2005) and Moore (2007).
According to this classification, epizonal deposits formed at a
temperature b300 °C and a depth b6 km.
There are certain conceptual problems with using genetic terminol-
ogy, based on P–T parameters of mineralisation that are often unknown
for individual deposits, in subdividing deposits in the Western Lachlan
Orogen. For example, a high crustal level of emplacement and relatively
low mineralisation temperatures have been questioned for some
deposits classified as epizonal orogenic (Phillips and Powell, 2009).
However, the available P–T data and geological observations are
generally consistent with the epizonal crustal level of formation of
high-Sb (N20 ppm) mineralisation in the Western Lachlan Orogen (Gao
and Kwak, 1995; Changkakoti et al., 1996; Mernagh, 2001; VandenBerg
et al., 2000). Research into the Au–Fe–As–Sb system in hydrothermal
environments further indicates that Sb-rich mineral assemblages are
more likely at a T b 300 °C (Williams-Jones and Normand, 1997;
Mernagh and Bierlein, 2008). Global data for similar ‘disseminated’
deposits with refractory and ultra-fine Au in arsenopyrite and pyrite and
for deposits associated with stibnite–quartz veins support their
formation at a relatively high crustal level, at a T b 300 °C, lower than
typical temperatures for classical gold–quartz vein deposits (Nesbitt
et al., 1989; Nekrasov, 1996; Bortnikov et al., 2004; Goldfarb et al., 2005;
Kekelia et al., 2008).
Several gold deposits in the Western Lachlan Orogen have been
classified as intrusion-related (VandenBerg et al., 2000; Miller and
Wilson, 2004; Miller et al., 2006; Bierlein and McKnight, 2005).
However, intrusion-related and orogenic deposits often have very
similar characteristics (Goldfarb et al., 2005), and the intrusion-
related type remains poorly defined in the Western Lachlan Orogen.
3. Method of quantitative mineral resource assessments
3.1. Overview
The quantitative assessments of undiscovered gold endowment in
Victoria were based on the 3-part form of assessment developed by the
United States Geological Survey and discussed in detail by Singer (1993)
and Singer and Menzie (2010). This probabilistic approach assumes that
256 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
undiscovered mineral potential for deposits of a particular geological
type can be quantified using probability distributions that characterise
grades, tonnages and the spatial distribution of known deposits of the
same type. The results are expressed as the number of undiscovered
deposits and the total metal endowment.
Assessments are made separately for deposits of different
geological types (deposit models) and have the following stages:
• definition of the areas (permissive tracts) that may contain deposits
of a particular type (deposit model);
• estimation of likely grade and tonnage characteristics of undiscov-
ered deposits for that deposit model by using an appropriate grade
and tonnage model; and
• estimation of the number of undiscovered deposits consistent with
the grade and tonnage model.
Finally, the total amount of undiscovered metal endowment is
estimated through a Monte Carlo computer simulation that combines
the grade and tonnage distributions with a probabilistic estimate of
the number of undiscovered deposits (Section 3.5).
3.2. Delineating permissive tracts
The first step is to delineate a permissive tract where deposits of a
specific type are geologically possible. Permissive tracts are delineated
based on the geological criteria expressed in the appropriate
descriptive deposit model. The boundaries of a permissive tract are
defined such that the probability of any deposits of the particular
model occurring outside the boundaries is negligible (Singer, 1993).
Areas are only excluded from permissive tracts on the basis of
demonstrated unfavourable geology, knowledge of exhaustive un-
successful exploration, or the presence of barren overburden
exceeding a pre-determined thickness. An arbitrary maximum
depth of barren cover of 1 km has been usually used in the past.
The main sources of information used to outline permissive tracts for
a particular deposit model include an appropriate descriptive model,
geological maps of the assessment area, and an inventory of known
deposits and occurrences that belong to that deposit model (or to
associated models) in or adjacent to the assessment area. Geophysical
data and interpretations can also help to outline permissive geological
units such as favourable or permissive rocks under cover. Geochemistry
and the distribution of known mineralisation representing the deposit
model under consideration, or associated deposit styles, can also
support the delineation of a permissive tract.
3.3. Grade and tonnage models
The expected grade and tonnage characteristics of undiscovered
deposits for a deposit model are estimated using grade and tonnage
models constructed from well-explored deposits that represent that
deposit model. Cox and Singer (1986) and Bliss (1992) published 69
grade and tonnage models from global deposit data. The Monte Carlo
computer simulator normally used in 3-part assessments for
modelling the total undiscovered endowment (MARK3) incorporates
114 grade and tonnage models (Duval, 2000), including modified and
updated versions of the models of Cox and Singer (1986) and Bliss
(1992). Additionally, the British Columbia Geological Survey (Canada)
compiled 21 grade and tonnage models relevant to British Columbia
(Grunsky et al., 1994; Lefebure and Hoy, 1996). GeoScience Victoria
(Australia) compiled Victorian grade and tonnage models for
mesozonal orogenic gold–quartz vein deposits in the Bendigo and
Stawell zones (Lisitsin et al., 2007, 2009) and for epizonal orogenic,
refractory gold and gold–stibnite–quartz vein, deposits in the
Melbourne and Bendigo zones (Lisitsin et al., 2010). The Victorian
grade and tonnage models have been used in the studies discussed in
this paper.
Where available grade and tonnage models do not adequately
reflect the grade and tonnage properties of local deposits, a local grade
and tonnage model can be constructed based on known well-explored
deposits from within or near an assessment area. Grades and tonnages
should be compiled for consistently defined geological objects (e.g.
orebodies, deposits, or goldfields).
3.4. Estimating the number of undiscovered deposits
Although the exact number of undiscovered deposits (N) cannot
be determined precisely, it can be estimated as a probability
distribution of the random variable N. In 3-part assessments, values
of the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the probability distribution of
N (N90, N50 and N10) are usually estimated, so that:
 
P N ≥ N90ð50;10Þ = x; where x = 0:9; 0:5; 0:1 ð1Þ
For example, a particular value of N90 indicates a 90% confidence
that the number of undiscovered deposits is equal to, or larger than,
N90. The estimates are typically made based on subjective expert
judgement, constrained by logical rules and guided, or sometimes
substituted, by statistical methods.
The number of undiscovered deposits estimated at the 90%
probability level (N90) represents the number of deposits almost
certain to exist within an assessment area. The number of deposits at
the 10% probability level (N10) is normally considered speculative and
usually represents the highest estimated number of undiscovered
deposits within the assessment area. The spread of the number of
deposits estimated at the 90% to 10% probability levels expresses
uncertainty, whereas the perceived favourability is represented by
values of the estimated percentiles of the probability distribution of N
(N90, N50 and N10) or by the expected number of undiscovered
deposits E(N) (Singer, 1993).
The estimated number of undiscovered deposits must be consis-
tent with an appropriate descriptive and grade and tonnage model.
Consistency with the descriptive model means that the estimated
number of deposits should only refer to deposits of the same deposit
type used in the construction of the grade and tonnage model and
delineation of permissive tracts. Consistency with the grade and
tonnage model requires that the estimates should refer to exactly the
same assessment unit (e.g., spatially defined deposits) used in the
construction of the grade and tonnage model. It also implies that, at
any probability level, approximately half of the estimated number of
undiscovered deposits should refer to deposits larger than the median
tonnage and about 10% of the deposits — to deposits at least as large as
the 90th percentile of the tonnage distribution (Singer, 1993).
Similarly, about half of the estimated number of undiscovered
deposits should have average grades higher than the median grade
of the grade distribution. Consistency with the grade and tonnage
model can be achieved by ensuring that the experts estimating the
number of undiscovered deposits understand this requirement.
Several approaches have been used to constrain, guide, or
substitute subjective expert estimates of the number of undiscovered
deposits. The most robust and commonly used approach is based on
spatial models using deposit densities from well-explored areas, both
globally and locally (Singer, 1993; Bliss and Menzie, 1993; Singer,
2008). When applying these deposit models, deposit density (D) is
calculated as the number of known deposits (Nc) divided by
permissive area (Ac) for one or several well-explored control areas:
D = Nc = Ac ð2Þ
The estimated deposit density is then used as a guide for a
geologically similar assessment area. The number of undiscovered
deposits can be estimated by direct extrapolation of the deposit
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
density, regardless of any differences in sizes between permissive
tracts in control and assessment areas:
N50 = D × A
where A is the size of the permissive tract within the assessment area.
However, for several deposit types, permissive area and deposit
density are inversely related (Singer, 2008). Therefore, if information
on variability of deposit densities for a deposit model of interest is
available, the number of undiscovered deposits in the assessment area
can be estimates by regressing against the permissive area (Singer
et al., 2001, 2005; Singer and Menzie, 2005). A general regression
model that provides probabilistic estimates of deposit density for any
deposit type, given the type's median ore tonnage and permissive
area, is also available (Singer, 2008; Singer and Menzie, 2010). The use
of regression is discussed in detail by Singer et al. (2001, 2005), Singer
and Menzie (2005), Singer (2008) and Singer and Menzie (2010).
Uncertainty of the estimated number of undiscovered deposits can
be determined either from a regression model (Singer and Menzie
2005, 2010) or by using properties of an appropriate statistical
distribution, such as Poisson, exponential, logarithmic or negative
binomial (Allais, 1957; Harris, 1984; Bliss and Menzie, 1993; Singer,
1993; Singer and Menzie, 2005; Singer et al., 2005).
3.5. Modelling total undiscovered endowment
The final step in a 3-part quantitative assessment is to estimate the
undiscovered metal endowment as a probability distribution, pro-
duced by a Monte Carlo computer simulation that combines the grade
and tonnage distributions with a probabilistic estimate of the number
of undiscovered deposits. This simulation is typically performed using
the MARK3 software (Duval, 2000). The workings of the MARK3
simulator are discussed in detail by Root et al. (1992) and only briefly
summarised here.
The simulator performs 4999 iterations. For each iteration, the
number of undiscovered deposits (n) is randomly selected from a
probability distribution consistent with the 10th, 50th and 90th
percentiles estimated at the previous assessment stage as N90, N50 and
N10 (Section 3.4). As the exact probability distribution of N is not
known and there could be many distributions consistent with the
three estimated percentile values, MARK3 uses a default empirical
distribution approximately in the middle of all possible choices (Root
et al., 1992). The amount of contained metal (M) is evaluated for each
iteration as:
n
M = ∑ ti × ðgi jti Þ
i=1
where ti and gi are deposit grades and tonnages randomly selected
from the grade and tonnage distributions for the deposit model in
question, taking into account dependencies between deposit grades
and tonnages. The final output from the simulator is a probability
distribution of M representing results of the 4999 iterations.
4. Assessment of undiscovered gold endowment in Victoria
4.1. A general process of Victorian quantitative assessments
There are significant systematic differences in the geology and
distribution of gold deposits in the Bendigo, Stawell and Melbourne
zones. Therefore, quantitative assessments of undiscovered gold
endowment were conducted separately for each zone.
A similar process was followed for each individual assessment —
consistent with the three-part form outlined in Section 3. The first
stage involved a review of the regional geology and a compilation of
mineral deposit data. Known mineral deposits were classified into
257
major groups (described in Section 2), or deposit models. Analysis of
the geological history of the region, an observed spatial distribution of
gold deposits and likely regional mineralisation controls suggested
ð3Þ criteria for the definition of the permissive tract under cover. For each
deposit model, local grade and tonnage information was compiled for
consistently defined assessment units (‘deposits’). Estimation of likely
numbers of undiscovered gold ‘deposits’, consistent with a grade and
tonnage model deemed representative of undiscovered ‘deposits’, was
based either on statistical analysis (the Bendigo Zone) or on expert
judgement (the Stawell and Melbourne zones), as further discussed in
Section 4.3. Finally, total undiscovered endowment was estimated by
computer simulation. Methods used in quantitative assessments of
undiscovered gold resources in Victoria are further discussed in
Lisitsin (in press).
In each structural zone, an assessment area under cover was
defined as the Victorian part of that zone north of a 500 m buffer
around the northernmost outcrops of geologically permissive Palaeo-
zoic volcanic and sedimentary rocks that may host orogenic gold
deposits.
4.2. Compilation of Victorian grade and tonnage models
Ensuring unbiased assessment results required a clear and unam-
biguous definition of the sampling unit — an elementary component
used in the construction of the grade and tonnage model and for the
estimation of the spatial probability of the occurrence of mineralisation.
Harris (1984), Bliss and Menzie (1993) and Singer (1993) reviewed the
importance of the appropriate selection and treatment of an assessment
sampling unit in mineral resource assessments.
Individual mines are often used as proxies for mineral deposits in
prospectivity analysis. However, mines do not necessarily represent
specific geological objects. They only reflect the process of mineral
extraction, which was affected by the social, economic, technological
and legal regime at the time of mining. In the past, several adjacent
mines often extracted ore from the same deposit and indeed the same
orebody.
Selecting individual deposits as a sampling unit appeared a natural
choice. However, this was complicated by problems with data
availability, as well as by the frequent inconsistent use of the term
‘deposit’. For example, Cox and Singer (1986) defined a deposit as “a
mineral occurrence of sufficient size and grade that it might, under the
most favourable of circumstances, be considered to have economic
potential”. However, the term is usually not explicitly defined with
regard to the scale of the mineralised system referred to. It has
previously been used to refer to vastly different metallogenic and
ð4Þ
even socio-economic entities, often within the same publication.
In recent discourses on the terminology related to gold miner-
alisation in Victoria (Phillips and Hughes, 1996; Phillips et al., 2003), a
deposit was defined as an equivalent of an orebody (e.g. Wattle Gully)
— a category one level below a goldfield in the hierarchy proposed by
these authors. Hodgson (1993), in his analysis of mesothermal lode-
gold deposits, used the following definition: “A deposit is defined as a
system of contiguous ore zones and may be exploited by several
mines” (p. 640). However, the degree of continuity between the
individual ore zones required to combine them into one deposit was
not clearly stated. A similar implicit definition of a deposit as a
mineralised system (often extensive in volume and area) consisting of
numerous individual spatially distinct ore zones (ore bodies) is quite
common.
Many currently available grade and tonnage models and quanti-
tative resource assessments were based on definitions of deposits
using consistent spatial proximity rules, whereby all the mineralised
bodies within a pre-defined distance of each other were combined
into a single deposit (e.g. Cox and Singer, 1986; Bliss and Menzie,
1993; Singer et al., 2005).
258 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
To avoid possible confusion and bias, the sampling unit selected for
the assessments in Victoria was a group of genetically related
orebodies that belong to the same deposit model and are horizontally
separated by less than 1.6 km (1 mi). Thus, orebodies less than 1.6 km
apart were considered to be parts of the same mineralised system and
their grades and tonnages were combined. This proximity rule
followed the definition of a deposit in the global grade and tonnage
models compiled by the USGS for mesozonal orogenic (low-sulphide
gold–quartz vein) mineralisation (Bliss and Jones, 1988).
Here we refer to the assessment sampling unit defined above as an
‘ore field’ to reduce the risk of misunderstanding that might result
from the use of terms such as ‘deposit’ and ‘goldfield’, owing to their
long-standing (and often ambiguous) usage. Ore fields, as defined
here, are similar in metallogenic scale to geological entities that have
been described as individual ore deposits and ore fields (and in a few
cases, ore districts) by Laznicka (1983, 1999) and as mineral districts
by Pan (1993) and Pan and Harris (2000). Conceptually, they are close
to Harris's (1984) “zones of metallisation”. Many of the ore fields
delineated in the current study correspond well to historic goldfields
or clusters of goldfields.
A grade and tonnage model should represent the total endowment
of all undiscovered deposits and, therefore, estimates should ideally
be based on their original pre-mining in situ properties, thus
representing the total metal endowment (Singer, 1993). However,
reliable information on pre-mining grades and tonnages for most
historically mined ore fields is unavailable. We estimated the in situ
tonnages (T) and grades (G) by applying estimated ore dilution and
gold recovery factors to their extracted equivalents:
Textr
T=
1+D
where Textr is an extracted tonnage and D is ore dilution expressed as a
proportion, and
1+D
G = Grec ×
R
where Grec is a recovered grade and R is gold recovery expressed as a
proportion.
This does not take into account ore loss due to the ore left in the
ground and ore loss during mining and transportation, thus resulting
in an underestimation of in situ tonnages and gold contents.
Unless deposit-specific information was available, gold recovery
was assumed to be 80%–90% (depending on the metallurgical
properties of ores) and ore dilution of 10% was accepted for historic
underground and selective open-cut mining and 25%–30% for recent
large scale open-cut mining.
Where appropriate, we have included documented reserves and
resources in the total estimated pre-mining gold endowments of ore
fields. To reduce uncertainty of the grade and tonnage model, a
decision was made to include only the higher confidence categories of
indicated resources, measured resources and ore reserves, as specified in
JORC 2004. This is consistent with Geoscience Australia's definition of
‘economic demonstrated resources’ (Geoscience Australia, 2008) and
is similar to the approach of Laznicka (1999). The decision to exclude
low-confidence inferred resources has probably led to a downward
bias in the final estimation of the undiscovered endowment.
Analysis of historic gold production records indicated that almost
all historic production statistics in Victoria had been based on gold in
bullion — not pure (‘fine’) gold. Gold smelted at mines invariably
contained impurities (mostly silver, with traces of base metals),
typically ranging between 2% and 25% (Junner, 1920, 1921; Hughes
et al., 1997; Phillips et al., 2003; Lisitsin et al., 2009, 2010). Ore field
gold endowments and grades estimated from historic production
records were therefore appropriately reduced to eliminate the effect
of impurities. The applied adjustments were based on assay results
and historic gold bullion sale prices, used to estimate the average
purity of gold historically produced from individual ore fields.
Lisitsin et al. (2007) and Lisitsin (in press) showed that undiscovered
orogenic gold endowment could be reasonably estimated based only on
data from the larger ore fields. Also, grade and tonnage information is
typically more complete and reliable for larger ore fields. Therefore, the
Victorian quantitative assessments were based on significant ore fields,
defined by an arbitrary lower cut-off of 0.8 t of estimated original
contained gold. This approach represents simplistic economic filtering
excluding small, possibly uneconomic, ore fields from assessment
results.
For most ore fields, estimates of original contained gold, grades
and tonnages were almost entirely based on historic gold production.
Because of the incomplete historic records, the estimates have
significant uncertainty, but they are deemed adequate for the
purposes of this study.
4.3. Quantitative assessments for individual structural zones
4.3.1. Bendigo Zone
Primary gold mineralisation in the Bendigo Zone is dominated by
the mesozonal orogenic type, but later epizonal orogenic gold
deposits are also present, especially in the east of the zone (Section 2).
The bulk of mineralisation in the vast majority of identified significant
gold ore fields in the Bendigo Zone (23 out of 25, Fig. 3) belong to the
mesozonal orogenic gold model. Fosterville is classified as an epizonal
orogenic gold ore field (Bierlein et al., 2004; Moore, 2007) and
Heathcote has both mesozonal and epizonal deposits. Quantitative
estimation was only conducted for undiscovered mesozonal orogenic
ð5Þ
gold deposits. The assessment area under cover also has a high
potential for epizonal orogenic gold mineralisation, but this potential
was not quantified in the current study.
The Palaeozoic geology and metallogeny of the assessment area
under cover (∼ 10 000 km2) is deemed to represent a direct geological
ð6Þ analogue of the central well-explored part of the Bendigo Zone. This
geological similarity is indicated by geophysical and borehole data
(Moore, 2004, 2005, 2006) and supported by an interpretation of
recent deep seismic data (Cayley et al., submitted) and a general
analysis of the Palaeozoic geological history of the Bendigo Zone.
There are no known significant stratigraphical or structural differ-
ences between the two areas, or within the assessment area under
cover, that would cause significant metallogenic variations in the
Palaeozoic basement.
Based on the current knowledge of the geochronology of
metallogenic and magmatic events in the Bendigo Zone and the
spatial distribution of orogenic gold deposits in the region, all areas of
Devonian granite were excluded from the permissive tract under
cover. Granites in the region post-date the main phase of mesozonal
orogenic gold mineralisation (Section 2) and do not host any
significant orogenic gold deposits. The size of the tract permissive
for mesozonal orogenic gold deposits in the northern, covered part of
the Bendigo Zone is 7600 km2. No other parts of the assessment area
under cover were excluded on the basis of unfavourable geology, an
excessive depth of cover that could preclude mining, or exhaustive
previous exploration (Fig. 4).
The spatial proximity and an overall close geological similarity
between the assessment area and the central, mostly exposed part of
the Bendigo Zone supported the use of a grade and tonnage model
based on the known significant ore fields in the Bendigo Zone
(Table 1, Fig. 5) for the estimation of undiscovered gold endowment.
Statistical properties of the grade and tonnage distribution are further
discussed in Lisitsin et al. (2007).
The number of undiscovered ore fields in the north of the Bendigo
Zone was estimated by extrapolation of the local ore field density in
the central part of the Bendigo Zone.
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
Fig. 3. Significant orogenic gold ore fields in the Bendigo Zone. Numbers — as in Table 1.
While the areas of exposed Palaeozoic formations in the central
part of the Bendigo Zone are well explored for mesozonal orogenic
gold deposits, an area of more than 5500 km2 in the central part that is
masked by post-Silurian rocks (such as Cainozoic basalts) may still
contain undiscovered deposits. This masked area contains only one
significant ore field that is mostly concealed under cover (Clunes). For
comparison, there are 23 mostly exposed significant ore fields within
6700 km2 of exposed Palaeozoic rocks. Consequently, the areas of
cover were excluded from ore field density calculations to avoid
downward bias. Similarly, to avoid upward bias, Clunes was also
excluded from the calculations (similar to Singer et al., 2005).
The base density of significant ore fields in the central part of the
Bendigo Zone was calculated as the number of mostly exposed
significant mesozonal orogenic gold–quartz vein ore fields divided by
the exhaustively explored permissive area. The latter was defined as
the area of exposed Cambrian and Ordovician volcanic and sedimen-
tary rocks (6700 km2), plus the area of cover concealing permissive
rocks within known, mostly exposed, significant ore fields (300 km2).
Including the area of cover over known ore fields is a slight
modification of the approach of using only the exposed permissive
terrain for deposit density calculations (Singer et al., 2005). The
reason for this modification is that, even if undiscovered mineralised
bodies do exist under cover within the current boundaries of known
ore fields, they would be considered to be extensions of known
259
deposits (ore fields) and not as new ore fields. Also, near-mine
exploration under cover in known mineralised areas is likely to have
been much more complete than in covered areas away from known
ore bodies. Consequently, these areas cannot be considered poorly
explored, and their exclusion from the ore field density calculation
would introduce a slight upward bias to the density estimate.
The ore field density for significant ore fields in the central part of
the Bendigo Zone (Ds) was estimated as:
2 2
Ds = 23 ore fields = 7000 km = 3:3 significant ore fields per 1000 km
ð7Þ
The number of undiscovered significant ore fields at the 50%
probability level (N50) within the 7600 km2 permissive tract under
cover (Tu) was estimated as:
2 2
N50 = Ds × Tu = 3:3 ore fields = 1000 km × 7:6 × 1000 km ≈25 ore fields
ð8Þ
The estimation of the number of undiscovered ore fields at the 10%
and 90% probability levels (N10 and N90) required an assessment of
uncertainty associated with the median estimate of the number
of undiscovered ore fields (N50), which could be done using properties
260 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
Fig. 4. Permissive tract in the north of the Bendigo Zone. Post-Silurian cover is not shown within the assessment area.
of an appropriate standard statistical distribution. Ideally, the choice
of an appropriate probability distribution should be supported by a
statistical test of the goodness of fit of a theoretical distribution to
observed data. However, such a test was not practical in this case. A
measure of variability of the number of deposits was needed for an
area of 7600 km2 (the size of the permissive tract under cover), which
is larger than the total well-explored permissive area in the Bendigo
Zone. Therefore, assumptions on the probability distribution of the
number of undiscovered ore fields N could only be tentatively
supported by indirect evidence, such as results of previous studies
into spatial deposit models.
The Poisson and negative binomial distributions have been most
frequently used to characterise variability of the number of deposits
and occurrences (e.g., Allais, 1957; Harris, 1984; Bliss and Menzie,
1993; Singer, 1993; Singer and Menzie, 2005). The Poisson distribu-
tion has a relatively low coefficient of variation and implies no
clustering of deposits (at the scale of data analysis), while the negative
binomial distribution generally has a higher coefficient of variation
than the Poisson and implies deposit clustering (Harris, 1984; Singer
and Menzie, 2005). Previous studies which concluded that the
negative binomial distribution, or the exponential distribution, was
more appropriate than the Poisson (e.g., De Geoffroy and Wu, 1970;
Agterberg, 1977, 1984; studies reviewed by Harris, 1984, pp. 168–
174) investigated the distribution of mines, typically in relatively
small cells (tens to hundreds of square kilometres). However, in this
study, we are concerned with the distribution of spatially defined ore
fields (which combine the nearby adjacent mines, leading to a
substantial reduction of clustering) in large (7600 km2) cells. The
differences in the assessment units and cell sizes make most previous
results not directly applicable to the current study. Ore fields defined
here closely correspond to the “geological zones of mineralising
(metallisation)” of Harris (1984). For such units, the Poisson
distribution may be appropriate, especially for large cells (Allais,
1957; Harris, 1984), as shown by Bliss and Menzie (1993) for some
gold provinces.
Existing point estimates of the average deposit densities for
spatially defined mesozonal orogenic gold ‘deposits’ (ore fields) in
four well-explored gold provinces in Canada, USA and Victoria
(Australia) show remarkably small differences — between 4.3 and
5.4 ore fields per 1000 km2 (Singer et al., 2001). Those estimates
indicate a very low coefficient of variation of only 10%. This further
supports a tentative use of the Poisson distribution, characterised by a
relatively low coefficient of variation, as a general statistical guide to
produce initial estimates of the number of undiscovered significant
ore fields in the assessment area at the 10% and 90% probability levels
(N10 and N90).
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269 261

Table 1 Table 2
Significant mesozonal orogenic gold ore fields in the Bendigo Zone. For Heathcote (No. 22), Estimated number of undiscovered ore fields in the Bendigo Zone.
recent open-cut production from a high-antimony epizonal orogenic gold deposit is
excluded. Probability Number of ore fields

90% 15
No. Name Original gold In situ gold In situ ore
50% 25
endowment (t) grade (g/t) tonnage (t)
10% 32
1 Bendigo 630 15.9 37 000 000
2 Ballarat 106 11.4 9 000 000
3 Maldon–Muckleford 65 31.9 2 000 000
4 Clunes 41 14.9 2 700 000 and under cover. The southern boundary of the central part of the
5 Castlemaine 33 12.4 2 600 000
Bendigo Zone was selected to roughly coincide with a 500 m buffer
6 Daylesford 26 14.8 1 700 000
7 Tarnagulla 20 70.5 270 000 around the southernmost outcrops of Cambrian and Ordovician rocks
8 Egerton–Gordon 18 14.6 1 200 000 (consistent with the delineation of the assessment area in the north).
9 Berringa–Smythesdale 17 9.8 1 800 000 The total area of Cambrian and Ordovician rocks (including portions
10 Steiglitz 8.4 46.4 180 000 under cover) in the central part of the Bendigo Zone is about
11 Taradale–Lauriston 7.8 25.6 300 000
12300 km2. Assuming no undiscovered ore fields within the area, the
12 Dunolly–Moliagul 6.6 21.8 300 000
13 Inglewood 6.5 23.8 270 000 minimum density of significant ore fields (Ds min) can be calculated as:
14 Sebastian 6.4 16.1 400 000
15 Maryborough 6.1 16.0 390 000 2 2
Ds min = 24 significant ore fields = 12300 km ≈2 significant ore fields per 1000 km
16 Blackwood–Trentham 6.1 27.9 220 000
17 Wehla 2.1 13.8 150 000 ð9Þ
18 Amherst 1.7 16.2 100 000
19 Raywood 1.7 11.1 150 000 The number of undiscovered significant ore fields under cover at a
20 Elaine–Mount Doran 1.4 37.6 36 000
90% probability (N90) was then estimated as:
21 Wilsons Reef 1.1 17.9 62 000
22 Heathcote 0.9 25.7 34 000
2 2
23 Crusoe 0.9 30.7 27 000 N90 = Ds min Tu = 2 ore fields = 1000 km × 7:6 × 1000 km ≈15 significant ore fields
24 Bamganie 0.8 16.3 50 000
ð10Þ

Note that this modified estimate of N90 corresponds to the 1st

Thus, preliminary estimates were obtained assuming that N has
the Poisson probability distribution with a mean of 25 (N50, from
Eq. (8)). These initial estimates indicate a 90% probability of at least 19
ore fields (P(N N 19) = 0.9) and a 10% probability of at least 32 ore
fields (P(N N 32) = 0.1). As the available data was not sufficient for a
definitive goodness of fit test to confirm the Poisson probability
distribution of N, the estimates could only be tentatively used as a
guide. To avoid underestimation of uncertainty, the initial estimates
were reviewed taking into account the geology and exploration and
mining history of the region. Based on the available geological data,
the project team considered it unlikely that the number of
undiscovered significant ore fields in the assessment area could
significantly exceed 32, so the preliminary estimate of N10 remained
unchanged.
On the other hand, it is hypothetically possible that the post-
mineralisation cover in the central well-explored part of the Bendigo
Zone had no significant effect on the ultimate effectiveness of
exploration, so that there are no undiscovered significant ore fields
left in the central part of the zone. To account for this possibility, we
estimated ore field density in the central part of the Bendigo Zone
using the total area of Cambrian and Ordovician rocks, both exposed
percentile of the Poisson distribution with a mean of 25 (N50, Eq. (8)).
The estimates of N50 and N90 are in no way constrained by the
assumption of the Poisson distribution of N, so the final range estimate
of the number of undiscovered ore fields is not statistically defined.
We estimated that there is a 90% probability of 15 or more
undiscovered significant ore fields, a 50% probability of 25 or more,
and a 10% probability of 32 or more.
The total gold endowment in undiscovered significant mesozonal
orogenic gold–quartz vein ore fields was estimated using a Monte
Carlo simulation in the MARK3 software (Duval, 2000), briefly
discussed in Section 3.5.
Modelling was conducted using the ‘Empirical’ option of MARK3
(explained in Root et al., 1992), the in situ grade and tonnage model of
significant (N0.8 t Au) mesozonal orogenic gold ore fields in the
Bendigo Zone (Table 1) and the number of undiscovered significant
ore fields at the 90%, 50% and 10% probability levels as shown in
Table 2. The modelling results are summarised in Table 3 and Fig. 6.
The mean of the probability distribution characterising undiscov-
ered gold endowment in the northern part of the Bendigo Zone under
cover (Fig. 8) is 990 t (32 Moz), with a 90% probability of at least 290 t
(9 Moz) and a 50% probability of at least 890 t (29 Moz).

4.3.2. Stawell Zone

Similar to the Bendigo Zone, primary gold mineralisation in the
Stawell Zone is considered to be predominantly of the mesozonal
orogenic type. Gold deposits are also mostly associated with quartz
veins, but often with a significantly higher proportion of sulphides
compared to deposits in the Bendigo Zone (Section 2). Some ore

Table 3
Estimated undiscovered gold endowment in the northern Bendigo Zone.

Cumulative Mean Probability of

probability mean or more

90% 50% 10%

Gold (t) 290 890 1800 990 43%

Ore (Mt) 16 54 110 59 44%
Fig. 5. Average grades and tonnages of significant mesozonal orogenic gold ore fields in
Mean number of ore fields 23
the Bendigo Zone.
262 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
Fig. 6. Cumulative probability distribution of undiscovered gold endowment in the
northern Bendigo Zone. The filled circle represents the mean.
bodies at Stawell are largely composed of sulphides (arsenopyrite and
pyrrhotite) All eight significant (N0.8 t Au) gold ore fields identified in
the Stawell Zone (Fig. 7) belong to the mesozonal orogenic gold
model.
The Palaeozoic geology of the assessment area under cover
(∼30 000 km2) is likely to be broadly similar to the geology of the
central part of the Stawell Zone. This broad similarity is indicated by
geophysical and borehole data (Moore, 2004, 2005), as well as by
recent deep seismic data (Cayley et al., submitted). There are no
known significant stratigraphical or structural breaks that would
cause a dramatic change in the Palaeozoic geology under cover.
Current knowledge of the geology of the Stawell Zone and the spatial
distribution of significant orogenic gold deposits in the region suggest
Fig. 7. Orogenic gold mineralisation in the Stawell Zone. MR — the Moonambel–Redbank ore field. Covered northern and southern parts of the Stawell Zone are not shown.
that Late Silurian to Devonian granites under cover are not
geologically permissive for mesozonal orogenic gold mineralisation.
No other regions within the assessment area under cover were
excluded from the permissive tract on the basis of unfavourable
geology. We were also unable to eliminate any significant parts of the
area under cover where exhaustive previous exploration had proved
the absence of undiscovered ore fields. The permissive tract is shown
on Fig. 8.
While the Palaeozoic geology of the assessment area under cover is
deemed to be broadly similar to the geology of the central part of the
Stawell Zone, the two areas could not be confidently regarded as
direct geological and metallogenic analogues. The under cover area is
several times the size of the central part of the Stawell Zone where
Cambrian rocks are partially exposed. The cover thickness in this
region often exceeds 300 m–400 m and therefore many aspects of the
Palaeozoic geology under cover remain poorly known. The diverging
geometry of the Moyston and Avoca faults, which bound the Stawell
Zone and move further apart to the north, may have resulted in
gradual metallogenic variations within the region.
The possibility of substantial metallogenic variations within the
Stawell Zone, as well as a relatively small number of significant
orogenic gold ore fields known in the region (Fig. 7, Table 4), suggest
that a grade and tonnage model based only on Stawell Zone deposits
may not adequately characterise the likely variability of grades and
tonnages of undiscovered ore fields under cover. We decided to use a
combined grade and tonnage model based on significant ore fields
from both the Bendigo and Stawell zones for the assessment of
undiscovered gold endowment in the Stawell Zone. Although there
are some apparent differences between grade and tonnage distribu-
tions for the Bendigo and Stawell zones, they are not statistically
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269 263

Fig. 8. Permissive tract in the north of the Stawell Zone. Post-Silurian cover is not shown within the assessment area. The permissive tract is hatched. Otherwise, the legend is the
same as for Fig. 7.

significant at commonly used significance levels between 1% and 10%
(Lisitsin et al., 2009). Grade and tonnage properties of the combined
model are illustrated by Fig. 9.
We estimated the number of undiscovered ore fields in the
assessment area on the basis of independent expert judgement
(Meyer and Booker, 2001; O'Hagan et al., 2006). A group of experts in
the economic geology of gold in Victoria from GeoScience Victoria,
industry and academia took part in an interactive workshop held in
Melbourne in July 2008. Five workshop participants made individual
estimates of the likely number of undiscovered significant (N0.8 t Au)
ore fields at three probability levels (10%, 50% and 90%). Individual
responses were analysed for potential cognitive biases and underes-
timation of uncertainty and mathematically aggregated, using equal
weight linear pooling (e.g., O'Hagan et al., 2006, pp. 181–182), to
produce a single set of estimates to represent views of the group
(Table 5). Details of the applied methods of analysis, processing and
aggregation of experts' estimates are discussed in Lisitsin et al. (2009)
and Lisitsin (in press).
Monte Carlo simulation results for contained undiscovered gold,
obtained using the ‘Empirical’ option of MARK3 (Duval, 2000), the in
situ grade and tonnage model of significant (N0.8 t Au) mesozonal
orogenic gold ore fields in the Stawell Zone (Tables 1 and 4) and the
number of undiscovered significant ore fields at the 90%, 50% and 10%
probability levels as shown in Table 5, are summarised in Table 6 and
Fig. 10.

Table 4
Significant mesozonal orogenic gold ore fields in the Stawell Zone. Original endowment
of the Stawell ore field includes current ore reserves and measured and indicated
resources, but excludes endowment of the Wonga deposit (∼10 t Au) previously
classified as intrusion-related (Miller and Wilson, 2004; Miller et al., 2006).

Name Original gold In situ gold In situ ore

endowment (t) grade (g/t) tonnage (t)

Stawell 145 13.7 13 000 000

St Arnaud 12.5 15.5 806 000
Moyston 2.6 26.2 98 000
Burkes Flat 2.1 30 69 000
Pitfield 1.4 16.8 85 000
Linton 1.0 12.1 86 000
Stuart Mill 0.9 17.6 51 000
Fig. 9. Average grades and tonnages of significant mesozonal orogenic gold ore fields in
Moonambel–Redbank 0.8 34.9 24 000
the Stawell and Bendigo zones.
264 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
Table 5
Combined estimates of the number of undiscovered ore fields in the northern Stawell
Zone.
Probability Number of ore fields
90% 10
50% 33
10% 60
The mean undiscovered gold endowment in the northern part of
the Stawell Zone under cover is estimated to be 1200 t (38 Moz), with
a 90% probability of at least 200 t (6 Moz) and a 50% probability of at
least 1100 t (35 Moz).
4.3.3. Melbourne Zone
Twelve geologists from GeoScience Victoria, industry and acade-
mia, reviewed relevant geological information for the Melbourne
Zone and estimated prospectivity of the northern part of the
Melbourne Zone under cover for both mesozonal and epizonal
orogenic gold deposits, in terms of likely numbers of undiscovered
gold ore fields. This was done during two separate expert workshops,
convened in Melbourne (Australia) in July and August 2009.
Both mesozonal gold–quartz vein deposits and epizonal high-
antimony deposits are common in the Melbourne Zone but deposits of
these types have quite distinct spatial distributions.
Mesozonal gold–quartz vein deposits in the Melbourne Zone,
historically the most productive deposits in the region, are only
known in the Walhalla–Woods Point belt (the Woods Point
mineralogical domain of Hughes et al., 1997 and Phillips et al.,
2003) and, probably, at Foster, in the east of the Melbourne Zone
(Fig. 11). This belt broadly coincides with the Woods Point Dyke
Swarm, even though several individual deposits and ore fields are not
associated with dykes (VandenBerg et al., 2006). No mesozonal
deposits have been documented to the north of the town of Jamieson.
This includes 40 km of mostly exposed and, presumably well-
explored, Devonian rocks of the Walhalla Synclinorium, which hosts
all major mesozonal gold deposits of the Woods Point mineralogical
domain to the south. North of Jamieson, as well as in the adjacent
areas to the east and west, the gold deposits have all been classified as
epizonal.
No reliable evidence was found to indicate the presence of
mesozonal orogenic gold mineral systems in the assessment area or
for tens of kilometres in the adjacent region to the south. Province-
scale controls of the mesozonal orogenic gold mineralisation in the
Walhalla–Woods Point belt remain poorly understood. Neither the
authors nor the expert panels could define tracts permissive for
mesozonal gold deposits in the north of the Melbourne Zone.
Therefore, no quantitative estimate of undiscovered mesozonal gold
endowment was made.
In contrast, epizonal orogenic gold deposits are distributed
throughout the Melbourne Zone outside of the main part of the
Walhalla–Woods Point belt (Fig. 11). They are most common and
economically significant in the western part of the Melbourne Zone
(Fig. 11). In particular, four significant epizonal orogenic ore fields
with more than 1 t Au in each are within 10 km of the assessment area
Table 6
Estimated undiscovered gold endowment in the northern Stawell Zone.
Cumulative Mean Probability of
probability mean or more
90% 50% 10%
Gold (t) 200 1100 2300 1200 46%
Ore (Mt) 10 70 160 59 46%
Mean number of ore fields 34
Fig. 10. Cumulative probability distribution of undiscovered gold endowment in the
northern Stawell Zone. The filled circle represents the mean.
in the west. Both expert panels concluded that the assessment area
(4400 km2) is likely to be broadly similar (with respect to epizonal
orogenic gold mineralisation) to the exposed parts of the Melbourne
Zone to the south and of the adjacent eastern Bendigo Zone to the
west.
Data on geochronology, geological relationships and the fact that
the granites were not affected by the regional deformation coeval
with gold mineralisation in the Melbourne Zone suggest that the
large-scale plutonic magmatism was probably younger than the main
phase of gold mineralisation in the region (Vandenberg et al., 2006).
Also, granites do not host any substantial orogenic gold mineralisation
in the Melbourne Zone. Therefore, areas underlain by Late Devonian
granites and associated volcanic rocks were excluded from the
permissive tract. These rocks, considered geologically not permissive
for epizonal orogenic mineralisation, are only known to exist on the
southern margin of the covered area.
No other regions within the assessment area under cover were
excluded on the basis of unfavourable geology or because of exhaustive
previous exploration. Also, no areas in the north of the Melbourne Zone
are known to have cover thicknesses greater than 300 m, so no areas
were excluded on the basis of the depth of cover that would preclude
mining. The two-part permissive tract is shown on Fig. 12.
To choose a grade and tonnage model likely to be representative of
undiscovered epizonal orogenic gold ore fields in the north of the
Melbourne Zone, we compiled information for significant ore fields in
central Victoria and compared the local grade and tonnage model to
similarly defined significant deposits from Berger's (1993) global
gold–antimony deposit model. Antimony-rich deposits in the eastern
part of the Walhalla–Woods Point belt (Fig. 11; Leviathan sub-
province of Hughes, 2004) were excluded from the local model. For
many of them, the classification remains uncertain. Also, these
deposits appear to be closely associated with mesozonal deposits in
the main part of the Walhalla–Woods Point belt.
The number of known significant epizonal ore fields in the rest of the
Melbourne Zone (eight) was considered too small to adequately
characterise likely variability of grades and tonnages of undiscovered
ore fields under cover. On the other hand, a review of the global grade
and tonnage model of Berger (1993) indicated that it needed to be
extended and updated with more recent estimates of deposit properties.
Epizonal gold mineralisation, formed during the same metallo-
genic event at ∼ 375 Ma), is present in the adjacent eastern part of the
Bendigo Zone (Section 2). To better represent grade and tonnage
uncertainties and to avoid downward bias, we decided to include the
Fosterville ore field and high-Sb deposits at Heathcote in the local
grade and tonnage model. This decision was also supported by most
experts that carried out the estimation of the likely number of
undiscovered ore fields. Properties of the ore fields used in the local
grade and tonnage model are shown in Table 7 and Fig. 13.
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269 265

Fig. 11. Orogenic gold mineralisation in the Melbourne Zone. Mesozonal deposits are restricted to the Walhalla–Woods Point belt, which mostly coincides with the Walhalla
Synclinorium and possibly continues south to Foster. DC — the Diamond Creek ore field; RC — the Reedy Creek ore field.

The number of undiscovered ore fields in the Melbourne Zone was
estimated by two groups of experts at interactive workshops. Ten
workshop participants made individual estimates of the number of
undiscovered significant (N0.8 t Au) ore fields at three probability
levels (10%, 50% and 90%). Both groups produced similar estimates.
Individual responses were analysed and mathematically aggregated
to produce a single set of estimates to represent views of the two
groups (Table 8), following a general process outlined for the Stawell
Zone study. Further details are discussed in Lisitsin et al. (2010) and
Lisitsin (in press).
Monte Carlo simulation results for contained undiscovered gold,
obtained using the ‘Empirical’ option of the MARK3 simulator (Duval,
2000), the in situ grade and tonnage model of significant (N0.8 t Au)
epizonal orogenic gold ore fields in the Melbourne Zone (Table 7) and
the number of undiscovered significant ore fields at the 90%, 50% and
10% probability levels as shown in Table 8, are summarised in Table 9
and Fig. 14.
The mean undiscovered gold endowment in the northern part of
the Melbourne Zone under cover is estimated to be 90 t (3 Moz), with
a 90% probability of at least 10 t (0.3 Moz) and a 50% probability of at
least 65 t (2 Moz).
5. Discussion
Northern parts of the Western Lachlan Orogen under Cainozoic
cover are likely to host many undiscovered orogenic gold deposits
with significant total endowment. Assessments described in this
paper quantified the likely undiscovered endowment in a probabilis-
tic form to clearly convey the uncertainty of estimates. The
assessment results are based on some critical assumptions and
qualifications, which are briefly reviewed below.
In the Bendigo Zone assessment, the number of undiscovered ore
fields at the 10% and 90% probability levels (an interval estimate) was
initially estimated assuming that the Poisson distribution could be a
suitable statistical guide. This assumption could not be unequivocally
substantiated. Although the final estimates of N90 and N50 were not
constrained by the assumption of the Poisson distribution of N, the
interval estimates of the number of undiscovered ore fields (Table 2)
and, consequently, of total undiscovered endowment (Table 3), may
still underestimate uncertainty. However, there is no evidence of bias,
as supported by an estimate of the number of undiscovered ore fields
based on an independent alternative statistical model (Lisitsin, in
press).
266 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269

Fig. 12. Permissive tract in the north of the Melbourne Zone. Post-Devonian cover is not shown within the assessment area. The permissive tract is hatched. Otherwise, the legend is
the same as for Fig. 11.

No analysis was conducted to estimate the proportion of cover; in some places it reaches almost 500 m. This would impose
undiscovered gold endowment that could constitute potentially significant additional exploration and mining costs.
viable economic resources. It is highly likely that some undiscovered The assessment results rely on grade and tonnage models, which
gold ore fields under cover may not be economic to mine in the near are based on past production and current resource estimates for the
future. One important factor that would affect potential economic
viability of undiscovered deposits is the depth of cover. Much of the
assessed area is covered by more than 100 m of post-mineralisation

Table 7
Significant epizonal orogenic gold ore fields in the Melbourne and Bendigo zones.

Name Original gold In situ gold In situ ore

endowment (t) grade (g/t) tonnage (t)

Fosterville 65 4.0 16 250 000

Costerfield 7 15.0 465 000
Nagambie 6 1.0 6 000 000
Rushworth 3 27.0 137 000
Diamond Creek 2 47.0 45 000
Reedy Creek 1.8 29.5 61 000
Whroo 1.6 16.6 94 000
Heathcote 1.4 1.2 1 165 000
Bailieston 1.2 2.6 471 000
Fig. 13. Average grades and tonnages of significant epizonal orogenic gold ore fields in
Warrandyte 0.8 43.1 19 000
the Melbourne and Bendigo zones.
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269 267

Table 8 Hough, M.J. Hughes (Martin Hughes and Associates), N.D. Norris (GBM
Combined estimates of the number of undiscovered ore fields in the northern Resources), G.N. Phillips (Phillips Gold; University of Melbourne), T.J.
Melbourne Zone.
Rawling (GeoScience Victoria), G. Turner (Exploration Management
Probability Number of ore fields Services) and B. van Riel (consulting geologist) greatly contributed to
90% 3 this study through their active involvement in discussions during
50% 8 workshops on the geology and undiscovered gold endowment of the
10% 20 Stawell and Melbourne zones. They, together with David Moore and
Clive Willman, estimated numbers of undiscovered gold ore fields used
as inputs in the estimation of total undiscovered gold endowment in the
Stawell and Melbourne zones.
Subhash Jaireth (Geoscience Australia), Margaretha Scott (Geolog-
Table 9 ical Survey of Queensland) and Neil Phillips provided many valuable
Estimated undiscovered gold endowment in the northern Melbourne Zone. comments in their technical reviews of individual assessments
Cumulative Mean Probability of summarised in this paper. Constructive reviews by Ore Geology Reviews
probability mean or more editors (Alok Porwal, Guest Editor, and Nigel Cook, Editor-in-Chief) and
90% 50% 10% two anonymous referees helped to significantly improve the manu-
script. We are grateful to Don Singer (USGS) for numerous productive
Gold (t) 10 65 200 90 39%
Ore (Mt) 1 20 55 25 42% discussions on quantitative methods of assessment of undiscovered
Mean number of ore fields 10 mineral resources, reviews of our previous publications and for his
ongoing support of this research.

known significant orogenic gold ore fields. The discovery of References

substantial additional resources in extensions of these ore fields
would mean that the models used in the assessments under-represent
ore field tonnages. If this is the case, the assessment results based on
the described model are likely to be a conservative estimate of the
undiscovered gold endowment in the covered areas.
Further efforts towards estimating the gold prospectivity and
undiscovered gold endowment are warranted for the areas under
cover. A better understanding of regional controls of orogenic gold
mineralisation in the Western Lachlan Orogen and in other orogenic
gold provinces in the world, combined with additional detailed
geological and geophysical data, should lead to better definition of the
geological features controlling the distribution of gold deposits under
cover. This could better constrain estimates of the number of
undiscovered ore fields. Further developments in data analysis and
integration could improve the probabilistic estimates of undiscovered
gold endowment and assist in exploration targeting by highlighting
specific district-scale prospective areas.
Acknowledgements
This work was completed in GeoScience Victoria as part of the Gold
Undercover program of the Victorian government (Australia),
between 2006 and 2009.
W.D. Birch (Museum Victoria), R.A. Cayley (GeoScience Victoria), W.
Edgar (Castlemaine Goldfields), P.G. Jackson (Morning Star Gold), M.A.
Fig. 14. Cumulative probability distribution of undiscovered gold endowment in the
northern Melbourne Zone. The filled circle represents the mean.
Agterberg, F.P., 1977. Application of computer methods in the mineral industry. In:
Ramani, R.V. (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium. American Institute
of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers (AIME), New York, pp. 287–298.
Agterberg, F.P., 1984. Discrete probability distributions for mineral deposits in cells.
Proceedings of the 27th International Geological Congress, vol. 20. VNU Science
Press, Utrecht, Netherlands, pp. 205–225.
Allais, M., 1957. Method of appraising economic prospects of mining exploration over
large territories — Algerian Sahara case study. Management Science 3 (4), 285–347.
Arne, D.C., Bierlein, F.P., Morgan, J.W., Stein, H.J., 2001. Re–Os dating of sulphides
associated with gold mineralization in central Victoria. Economic Geology 96,
1455–1459.
Arne, D.C., House, E., Lisitsin, V., 2008. Lithogeochemical haloes surrounding central
Victorian gold deposits: part 1 — primary alteration systems. GeoScience Victoria
Gold Undercover Report 4Department of Primary Industries.
Baragwanath, W., 1946. Gold and minerals of Victoria. Geological Survey of Victoria
Special Report. . 365 pp.
Berger, B.R., 1986a. Descriptive model for low-sulfide Au–quartz veins. In: Cox, D.P.,
Singer, D.A. (Eds.), Mineral Deposit Models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin, p. 238.
1693.
Berger, B.R., 1986b. Descriptive model of carbonate-hosted Au–Ag. In: Cox, D.P., Singer,
D.A. (Eds.), Mineral Deposit Models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin, p. p. 175. 1693.
Berger, V.I., 1993. Descriptive and grade and tonnage model for gold–antimony
deposits. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 93-194. . 24 p.
Bierlein, F.P., Maher, S., 2001. Orogenic disseminated gold in Phanerozoic fold belts —
examples from Victoria, Australia and elsewhere. Ore Geology Reviews 18, 113–148.
Bierlein, F.P., McKnight, S., 2005. Possible intrusion-related gold systems in the western
Lachlan Orogen, sourtheast Australia. Economic Geology 100, 385–398.
Bierlein, F.P., Fuller, T., Stuwe, K., Arne, D.C., Keays, R.R., 1998. Wallrock alteration
associated with turbidite-hosted gold deposits: examples from the Palaeozoic
Lachlan Fold Belt in central Victoria, Australia. Ore Geology Reviews 13, 345–380.
Bierlein, F.P., Arne, D.C., Mcknight, S., Lu, J., Reeves, S., Besanko, J., Marek, J., Cooke, D.,
2000. Wallrock petrology and geochemistry in alteration haloes associated with
mesothermal gold mineralization, central Victoria, Australia. Economic Geology 95,
283–312.
Bierlein, F.P., Arne, D.C., Foster, D.A., Reynolds, P., 2001. A geochronological framework
for orogenic gold mineralisation in central Victoria, Australia. Mineralium Deposita
36, 741–767.
Bierlein, F.P., Christie, A.B., Smith, P.K., 2004. A comparison of orogenic gold
mineralization in central Victoria (AUS), western South Island (NZ) and Nova
Scotia (CAN): implications for variations in the endowment of Palaeozoic
metamorphic terrains. Ore Geology Reviews 25, 125–168.
Geology of Victoria. In: Birch, W.D. (Ed.), Geological Society of Australia Special Publication,
23. Geological Society of Australia (Victoria Division, Melbourne. 842 pp.
Developments in mineral deposit modeling. In: Bliss, J.D. (Ed.), U.S. Geological Survey
Bulletin 2004. 168 pp.
Bliss, J.D., Jones, G.M., 1988. Mineralogic and grade-tonnage information on low-sulfide
Au–quartz veins. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report, 88-229. 99 pp.
Bliss, J.D., Menzie, W.D., 1993. Spatial mineral deposit models and the prediction of
undiscovered mineral deposits. Mineral Deposit Modeling: Geological Association
of Canada Special Paper, 40, pp. 693–706.
Bortnikov, N.S., Bryzgalov, I.A., Krivitskaya, N.N., Prokof'ev, V.Y., Vikentieva, O.V., 2004.
The Maiskoe multimegastage disseminated gold-sulphide deposit (Chukotka,
Russia): mineralogy, fluid inclusions, stable isotopes (O and S), history, and
conditions of formation. Geology of Ore Deposits 46 (6), 475–509.
Bowen, K.G., Whiting, R.G., 1975. Gold in the Tasman geosyncline, Victoria. In: Knight, C.L.
(Ed.), Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Monograph, 5, pp. 647–659.
268 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
Cayley, R. A., Korsch, R.J., Moore, D.H., Costelloe, R. D., Nakamura, A., Willman, C. E.,
Rawling, T. J., Morand, V. J., Skladzien, P. B., O'Shea, P. J., in press. Crustal
architecture of central Victoria: results from the 2006 deep crustal reflection
seismic survey. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences.
Cayley, R.A., Taylor, D.H., Vandenberg, A.H.M., Moore, D.H., 2002. Proterozoic–Early
Paleozoic rocks and the Tyennan Orogeny in central Victoria: the Selwyn Block and
its tectonic implications. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 49, 225–254.
Champion, D.C., Kositcin, N., Huston, D.L., Mathews, E., Brown, C., 2009. Geodynamic
synthesis of the Phanerozoic of Eastern Australia and implications for metallogeny.
Geoscience Australia Record 2009 18 254 pp.
Changkakoti, A., Gao, Z., Green, N., Kwak, T.A.P., Gray, J., Krouse, H.R., 1996. Contrasting
origins of Au and Sb-bearing fluids, central Victoria, Australia. Neues Jahrbuch fur
Mineralogie 6, 271–285.
Coney, P.J., Edwards, A., Hine, R., Morrison, F., Windrum, D., 1990. The regional tectonics
of the Tasman orogenic system, eastern Australia. Journal of Structural Geology 12
(5/6), 519–543.
Mineral deposit models. In: Cox, D.P., Singer, D.A. (Eds.), U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin
1693. 380 pp.
Cox, S.F., Sun, S.-S., Etheridge, M.A., Wall, V.J., Potter, T.F., 1995. Structural and
geochemical controls on the development of turbidite-hosted gold quartz vein
deposits, Wattle Gully Mine, Central Victoria. Economic Geology 90, 1722–1746.
De Geoffroy, J., Wu, S.M., 1970. A statistical study of ore occurrences in the greenstone
belts of the Canadian Shield. Economic Geology 65, 496–504.
Drew, L.J., 2003. Low-sulfide quartz gold deposit model. U.S. Geological Survey Open
File Report 03-077. . 24 pp.
Duval, J.S., 2000. A Microsoft Windows version of the MARK3 Monte Carlo resource
simulator. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 00-415.
Foster, D.A., Gray, D.R., Bucher, M., 1999. Chronology of deformation within the
turbidite-dominated Lachlan orogen: implications for the tectonic evolution of
eastern Australia and Gondwana. Tectonics 18, 452–485.
Fu, B., Fairmaid, A., Phillips, D., 2007. Geochronology of gold deposits in the western
Lachlan Fold Belt, Victoria: a review. Geoscience Victoria Gold Undercover Report 6.
Department of Primary Industries. 26 pp.
Fu, B., Fairmaid, A., Phillips, D., 2009. New 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of gold deposits in
central Victoria: final report. Geoscience Victoria Gold Undercover Report 19.
Department of Primary Industries. 29 pp.
Gao, Z.L., Kwak, T.A.P., 1995. Turbidite-hosted gold deposits in the Bendigo-Ballarat and
Melbourne Zones, Australia. I. Geology, Mineralization, stable isotopes, and
implications for exploration. International Geology Reviews 37, 910–944.
Gao, Z.L., Kwak, T.A.P., 1997. The geochemistry of wall rock alteration in turbidite-
hosted gold vein deposits, central Victoria, Australia. Journal of Geochemical
Exploration 59, 259–274.
Gao, Z.L., Kwak, T.A.P., Changkakoti, A., Hussein, E., 1995. Supergene ore and hypogene
nonore mineralization at the Nagambie sediment-hosted gold deposit, Victoria,
Australia. Economic Geology 90, 1747–1783.
Australia's Identified Mineral Resources 2008Geoscience Australia, Canberra.
Goldfarb, R.J., Baker, T., Dubé, B., Groves, D.I., Hart, C.J.R., 2005. Distribution, character,
and genesis of gold deposits in metamorphic terranes. Economic Geology 100th
Anniversary Volume, pp. 407–450.
Gray, D.R., Foster, D.A., Bierlein, F.P., 2002. Geodynamics and metallogeny of the Lachlan
Orogen. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 49, 1041–1056.
Gray, D.R., Foster, D.A., Morand, V.J., Willman, C.E., Cayley, R.A., Spaggiari, C.V., Taylor, D.H.,
Gray, C.M., VandenBerg, A.H.M., Hendrickx, M.A., Wilson, C.J.L., 2003. Structure,
metamorphism, geochronology and tectonics of Paleozoic rocks. In: Birch, W.D. (Ed.),
Geology of Victoria. : Geological Society of Australia Special Publication 23. Geological
Society of Australia (Victoria Division, pp. 15–70.
Groves, D.I., Goldfarb, R.J., Gebre-Mariam, M., Hagemann, S.G., Robert, F., 1998. Orogenic
gold deposits: a proposed classification in the context of their crustal distribution
and relationship to other gold deposit types. Ore Geology Reviews 13, 7–27.
Grunsky, E.C., Kilby, W.E., Massey, N.W.D., 1994. Resource assessment in British
Columbia. Nonrenewable Resources 3, 271–283.
Harris, D.P., 1984. Mineral Resources Appraisal — Mineral Endowment, Resources and
Potential Supply: Concepts, Methods, and Cases. Oxford University Press, Oxford. 445 pp.
Hodgson, C.J., 1993. Mesothermal lode-gold deposits. Mineral Deposit Modelling:
Geological Association of Canada Special Paper, 40, pp. 635–678.
Hughes, M., 2004. Late Devonian mineralisation in the Victorian Gold Province.
Tectonics to Minerals Discovery — Deconstructing the Lachlan Orogen: Geological
Society of Australia Abstracts, 74, pp. 63–70.
Hughes, M.J., Phillips, G.N., Gregory, L.M., 1997. Mineralogical domains in the Victorian
Gold Province, Maldon and Carlin-style potential. Australasian Institute of Mining
and Metallurgy Annual Conference 1997, 215–227.
JORC 2004. Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources
and Ore Reserves: The JORC Code, 2004 Edition. The Joint Ore Reserves Committee
of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Australian Institute of
Geoscientists and Minerals Council of Australia (JORC).
Junner, N.R., 1920. The geology and ore deposits of the Walhalla–Woods Point
auriferous belt. Proceedings of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
39, 127–258.
Junner, N.R., 1921. The geology and gold occurrences of Victoria, Australia. Economic
Geology 16, 79–123.
Kekelia, S.A., Kekelia, M.A., Kuloshvili, S.I., Sadradze, N.G., Gagnidze, N.E., Yaroshevich,
V.Z., Asatiani, G.G., Doebrich, J.L., Goldfarb, R.J., Marsh, E.E., 2008. Gold deposits and
occurrences of the Greater Caucasus, Georgia Republic: their genesis and
prospecting criteria. Ore Geology Reviews 34, 369–386.
Laznicka, P., 1983. Giant ore deposits: a quantitative approach. Global tectonics and
metallogeny 2 (1–2), 41–63.
Laznicka, P., 1999. Quantitative relationships among giant deposits of metals. Geology
94 (4), 455–473.
Lefebure, D.V., Hoy, T. (Eds.), 1996. Selected British Columbia Mineral Deposit Profiles:
British Columbia Ministry of Employment and Investment Open-file Report 1996-13.
Lisitsin, V.A., in press Methods of quantitative assessments of undiscovered resources:
examples from Victoria (Australia). Mathematical Geosciences.
Lisitsin, V.A., Willman, C.E., 2009. Spatial association between orogenic gold deposits
and crustal-scale faults in the Bendigo Zone, central Victoria — implications for gold
mineralisation. Smart Science for Exploration and Mining: Proceedings of the 10th
biennial SGA meeting of the Society for Geology Applied to Mineral Deposits, 2, pp.
824–826.
Lisitsin, V., Olshina, A., Moore, D.H., Willman, C.E., 2007. Assessment of undiscovered
mesozonal orogenic gold endowment under cover in the northern part of the
Bendigo Zone. GeoScience Victoria Gold Undercover Report 2. Department of
Primary Industries. 98 pp.
Lisitsin, V.A., Olshina, A., Moore, D.H., Willman, C.E., 2009. Assessment of undiscovered
mesozonal orogenic gold endowment under cover in the northern part of the
Stawell Zone (Victoria). GeoScience Victoria Gold Undercover Report 13Depart-
ment of Primary Industries. 59 pp.
Lisitsin, V.A., Olshina, A., Moore, D.H., Willman, C.E., Hough, M.A., 2010. Assessment of
undiscovered orogenic gold endowment under cover in the northern part of the
Melbourne Zone (Victoria). GeoScience Victoria Gold Undercover Report 17.
Department of Primary Industries. 48 pp.
Mernagh, T.P., 2001. A fluid inclusion study of the Fosterville Mine: a turbidite-hosted
gold field in the Western Lachlan Fold Belt, Victoria, Australia. Chemical Geology
173, 91–106.
Mernagh, T.P., Bierlein, F.P., 2008. Transport and precipitation of gold in Phanerozoic
metamorphic terranes from chemical modeling of fluid–rock interaction. Economic
Geology 103, 1613–1640.
Meyer, M.A., Booker, J.M., 2001. Eliciting and Analysing Expert Judgement: A Practical
Guide. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
459 pp.
Miller, J.M.C.L., Wilson, C.J.L., 2004. Stress controls on intrusion-related gold lodes:
Wonga gold mine, Stawell, Western Lachlan Fold Belt, southeastern Australia.
Economic Geology 99, 941–963.
Miller, J. Mcl, Phillips, D., Wilson, C.J.L., Dugdale, L.J., 2005. Evolution of a reworked
orogenic zone: the boundary between the Delamerian and Lachlan Fold Belts,
southeastern Australia. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 52, 921–940.
Miller, J.Mcl., Wilson, C.J.L., Dugdale, L.J., 2006. Stawell gold deposit: a key to unravelling
the Cambrian to Early Devonian structural evolution of the western Victorian
goldfields. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 53 (5), 677–695.
Moore, D.H., 2004. St Arnaud 1:250 000 area: a geological interpretation of the
geophysical data. Victorian Initiative for Minerals and Petroleum Report 82.
Department of Primary Industries.
Moore, D.H., 2005. Swan Hill 1:250 000 and parts of Balranald and Deniliquin 1:250 000
areas: a geological interpretation of the geophysical data. Victorian Initiative for
Minerals and Petroleum Report 84Department of Primary Industries.
Moore, D.H., 2006. Bendigo 1:250 000 and part of Deniliquin 1:250 000 areas: a
geological interpretation of the geophysical data. Victorian Initiative for Minerals
and Petroleum Report 86. Department of Primary Industries.
Moore, D.H., 2007. Classifying gold-bearing deposits in central and western Victoria.
GeoScience Victoria Gold Undercover Report 1. Department of Primary Industries.
Mosier, D.L., Singer, D.A., Bagby, W.C., Menzie, W.D., 1992. Grade and tonnage model of
sediment-hosted Au. Developments in Mineral Deposit Modelling: U.S. Geological
Survey Bulletin, pp. 26–28. 2004.
Nekrasov, I.Y.A., 1996. Geochemistry, Mineralogy and Genesis of Gold DepositsA.A.
Balkema, Rotterdam/Brookfield.
Nesbitt, B.E., Muenlenbachs, K., Murowchick, J.B., 1989. Genetic implications of stable
isotope characteristics of mesothermal Au deposits and related Sb and Hg deposits
in the Canadian Cordillera. Economic Geology 84, 1489–1506.
O'Hagan, A., Buck, C.A., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J.R., Garthwaite, P.H., Jenkinson, D.J.,
Oakley, J.E., Rakow, T., 2006. Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities.
John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK. 321 pp.
Offler, R., McKnight, S., Morand, V., 1998. Tectonothermal history of the western
Lachlan Fold Belt, Australia: insight from white mica studies. Journal of
Metamorphic Geology 16, 531–540.
Pan, G., 1993. Indicator favourability theory for mineral potential mapping. Nonre-
newable Resources 2 (4), 292–311.
Pan, G., Harris, D.P., 2000. Information Synthesis for Mineral Exploration. Oxford
University Press, New York.
Phillips, G.N., Hughes, M.J., 1996. The geology and gold deposits of the Victorian gold
province. Ore Geology Reviews 11, 255–302.
Phillips, G.N., Hughes, M.J., 1998. The Victorian gold province. Australasian Institute of
Mining and Metallurgy Monograph 22, 495–506.
Phillips, G.N., Powell, R., 1993. Link between gold provinces. Economic Geology 88,
1084–1098.
Phillips, G.N., Powell, R., 2009. Formation of gold deposits: review and evaluation of the
continuum model. Earth Science Reviews 94, 1–21.
Phillips, G.N., Hughes, M.J., Arne, D.C., Bierlein, F.P., Carey, S.P., Jackson, T., Willman, C.E.,
2003. Gold. In: Birch, W.D. (Ed.), Geology of Victoria. : Geological Society of Australia
Special Publication, 23. Geological Society of Australia (Victoria Division, pp. 377–433.
Ramsay, W.R.H., Bierlein, F.P., Arne, D.C., Vandenberg, A.H.M., 1998. A review of
turbidite-hosted gold deposits, Central Victoria: regional setting, styles of
mineralisation and genetic constraints. Ore Geology Reviews 13, 131–151.
Root, D.H., Menzie, W.D., Scott, W.A., 1992. Computer Monte Carlo simulation in
quantitative mineral resource assessment. Nonrenewable Resources 1 (2), 125–138.
 V.A. Lisitsin et al. / Ore Geology Reviews 38 (2010) 251–269
Singer, D.A., 1993. Basic concepts in three-part quantitative assessments of undiscov-
ered mineral resources. Nonrenewable Resources 2 (2), 69–81.
Singer, D.A., 2008. Mineral deposit densities for estimating mineral resources.
Mathematical Geosciences 40, 33–46.
Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., 2005. Statistical guides to estimating the number of
undiscovered deposits: an example with porphyry copper deposits. In: Cheng, Q.,
Bonham-Carter, G. (Eds.), GIS and Spatial Analysis: Proceedings of IAMG'05 — The
Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geology, 2,
pp. 1028–1033.
Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., 2010. Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessments — An
Integrated ApproachOxford University Press. 250 pp.
Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., Sutphin, D.M., Mosier, D.L., Bliss, J.D., 2001. Mineral deposit
density — an update. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1640-A. 13 pp.
Singer, D.A., Berger, V.I., Menzie, W.D., Berger, B.R., 2005. Porphyry copper deposit
density. Economic Geology 100, 491–514.
Solomon, M., 2000. Syndeformational, turbidite-hosted, base-metal sulphide (±gold
± silver), quartz–gold and quartz–gold–stibnite–scheelite deposits in the Tasman
Fold Belt System, in: Solomon, M., Groves, D.I., with a contribution from Jaques, A.L.,
The geology and origin of Australia's mineral deposits. Centre for Ore Deposit
Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart; Centre for Global Metallogeny, University of
Western Australia, Nedlands, pp. 684–723.
269
VandenBerg, A.H.M., Willman, C.E., Maher, S., Simons, B.A., Cayley, R.A., Taylor, D.H.,
Morand, V.J., Moore, D.H., Radojkovic, A., 2000. The Tasman Fold Belt System in
Victoria. Geological Survey of Victoria Special Publication, Melbourne. 462 pp.
VandenBerg, A.H.M., Cayley, R.A., Willman, C.E., Morand, V.J., Seymon, A.R., Osborne, C.R.,
Taylor, D.H., Haydon, S.J., McLean, M., Quinn, C., Jackson, P., Sandford, A.C., 2006.
Walhalla–Woods Point–Tallangallook special map area geological report.
Geological Survey of Victoria Report 127: GeoScience VictoriaDepartment of
Primary Industries.
Whiting, R.G., Bowen, K.G., 1976. Gold. In: Douglas, J.G., Ferguson, J.A. (Eds.), Geology of
Victoria. : Geological Society of Australia Special Publication 5. Geological Society of
Australia, pp. 434–451 (Victoria Division).
Williams-Jones, A.E., Normand, C., 1997. Controls of mineral parageneses in the system
F–Sb–S–O. Economic Geology 92, 308–324.
Willman, C.E., 2007. Regional structural controls of gold mineralisation, Bendigo and
Castlemaine goldfields, Central Victoria, Australia. Mineralium Deposita 42 (5),
449–463.
Willman, C.E., Korsch, R.J., Moore, D.H., Cayley, R.A, Lisitsin, V.A., Rawling, T.J., Morand,
V.J., O'Shea, P.J., 2010. Crustal-scale fluid pathways and source rocks in the Victorian
gold province, Australia: insights from deep seismic reflection profiles. Economic
Geology 105 (5), 895–915.