Population Growth Fromula

HISTORICAL DEMAND A = Pe^(rt) 2.7182818285

Potential Number Potential Number of Buyers per Egg Type

Year
of Buyers
Balut (39.39%) Penoy (37.5%)
2015 42 16 16
2016 42 17 16
2017 43 17 16
2018 43 17 16
2019 44 17 17

PROJECTED DEMAND

YEAR TOTAL DEMAND

2020 436,643 Statistical Straight line is used.
2021 442,610 Check on methods
2022 448,577
2023 454,543
2024 460,510

HISTORICAL SUPPLY

Total # of Average Number of Trays of Egg Harvested by a competitor

Year
Competitor
Balut Penoy
2015 2 11,566 3,653
2016 2 11,566 3,653
2017 3 11,566 3,653
2018 3 11,566 3,653
2019 3 11,566 3,653

PROJECTED SUPPLY

YEAR TOTAL SUPPLY Statistical Straight line is used.

2019 58,805 Check on methods
2020 63,846
2021 68,886
2022 73,927
2023 78,967

ANALYSIS OF THE MARKET GAP AND MARKET SHARE

Year Demand Supply Market Gap
2019 436,643 58,805 377,838
2020 442,610 63,846 378,764
2021 448,577 68,886 379,690
2022 454,543 73,927 380,617
2023 460,510 78,967 381,543
Number of Buyers per Egg Type Average Number of Trays of Egg Needed b

Echo (3.57%) Matra (19.64%) Balut Penoy

1 8 17,781 6,570
2 8 17,781 6,570
2 8 17,781 6,570
2 9 17,781 6,570
2 9 17,781 6,570

1.97 0.88 1.425

l Straight line is used.

n methods

ys of Egg Harvested by a competitor per year Total Supply (Total Number of Trays of

Echo Matra Balut Penoy

487 1,096 23,133 7,305
487 1,096 23,133 7,305
487 1,096 34,699 10,958
487 1,096 34,699 10,958
487 1,096 34,699 10,958

16,802

l Straight line is used.

n methods
 Market Share (%)
(%)
4.50% 17,000
4.62% 17,500
4.74% 18,000
4.86% 18,500
4.98% 19,000

86.53% 326,953
85.58% 324,128
84.64% 321,383
83.74% 318,713
82.85% 316,117
ber of Trays of Egg Needed by a Buyer per year Total Demand (Total Number of Trays o

Echo Matra Balut

456 1,649 290,360
456 1,649 294,527
456 1,649 298,754
456 1,649 303,042
456 1,649 307,391

y (Total Number of Trays of Egg Harvested)

TOTAL
Echo Matra
974 2,192 33,603
974 2,192 33,603
1,461 3,287 50,405
1,461 3,287 50,405
1,461 3,287 50,405
Demand (Total Number of Trays of Egg Needed)
TOTAL

Penoy Echo Matra

102,399 677 13,460 406,895
103,868 686 13,654 412,735
105,359 696 13,850 418,659
106,871 706 14,048 424,667
108,405 716 14,250 430,762
DEMAND

Year Total Demand A. Arithmetic Straight Line:

2013 406,895 where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
2014 412,735 Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
2015 418,659 N = Number of years
2016 424,667 Yi = Value for the year Past
2017 430,762
Yn - Yc
a=
N-1

SUPPLY
Year Total Supply A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
2013 33,603 where : Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
2014 33,603 Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
2015 50,405 N = Number of years
50,405 Yi = Value for the year Past
2016
2017 50,405
Yn - Yc
a=
N-1
 Yc = a + Yi - 1
Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past Year Y
2013 406,895.32
23,866.77 2014 412,735.09
= = 5,966.69
4 2015 418,658.67
2016 424,667.27
2017 430,762.10

Yc = a + Yi - 1
Yc = Initial Value (1st Year)
Yn = Final Value (Last Year)
N = Number of years
Yi = Value for the year Past Year Y
2013 33,603.00
16,801.50 2014 33,603.00
= = 4,200.38
4 2015 50,404.50
2016 50,404.50
2017 50,404.50
 HISTORICAL VALUES
a + Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc
- + - 0
5,966.69 + 406,895.32 = 412,862.02 (126.93)
5,966.69 + 412,862.02 = 418,828.71 (170.04)
5,966.69 + 418,828.71 = 424,795.41 (128.14)
5,966.69 + 424,795.41 = 430,762.10 -

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

61,442.70
5

12,288.54

SD 110.85

HISTORICAL VALUES
a + Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc
- + - 0
4,200.38 + 33,603.00 = 37,803.38 (4,200.38)
4,200.38 + 37,803.38 = 42,003.75 8,400.75
4,200.38 + 42,003.75 = 46,204.13 4,200.38
4,200.38 + 46,204.13 = 50,404.50 -

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

105,858,900.84
5

21,171,780.17

4,601.28
 PROJECTED VALUES
(Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 = Yc
- 2017 5,966.69 + 430,762.10 = 436,728.79
16,110.17 2018 5,966.69 + 436,728.79 = 442,695.49
28,913.35 2019 5,966.69 + 442,695.49 = 448,662.18
16,419.18 2020 5,966.69 + 448,662.18 = 454,628.87
- 2021 5,966.69 + 454,628.87 = 460,595.57
61,442.70

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

PROJECTED VALUES
(Y - Yc)² Year a + Yi - 1 = Yc
- 2017 4,200.38 + 50,404.50 = 54,604.88
17,643,150.14 2018 4,200.38 + 54,604.88 = 58,805.25
70,572,600.56 2019 4,200.38 + 58,805.25 = 63,005.63
17,643,150.14 2020 4,200.38 + 63,005.63 = 67,206.00
- 2021 4,200.38 + 67,206.00 = 71,406.38
105,858,900.84

∑(Y - Yc)²
N
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1
Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
r = Average rate of Increase

∑% increase 5.740806099
r= =
N-1 4 0.01

B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: Yi + 1

Yc =
1+r
where : Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead
r = Average rate of Increase

∑% increase 50
r= =
N-1 4 0.01
 % of HISTORICAL VALUES
Increase
Year Y (Decrease Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc
2013 406895.32 )- 418,093.45 ÷ 1.01 = 413,953.91
2014 412735.09 1.4352015 422,274.38 ÷ 1.01 = 418,093.45
2015 418658.67 1.4352015 426,497.13 ÷ 1.01 = 422,274.38
2016 424667.27 1.4352015 430,762.10 ÷ 1.01 = 426,497.13
2017 430762.10 1.4352015
5.7408061

Standard Deviation:

SD

% of HISTORICAL VALUES
Increase
Year Y Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc
(Decrease
2013 33603.00 )- 48,922.11 ÷ 1.01 = 48,437.73
2014 33603.00 0 49,411.33 ÷ 1.01 = 48,922.11
2015 50404.50 50 49,905.45 ÷ 1.01 = 49,411.33
2016 50404.50 0 50,404.50 ÷ 1.01 = 49,905.45
2017 50404.50 0
50

Standard Deviation:
S
PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x (1 + r) =
(7,058.59) 49823639.9984521 2017 430,762.10 x 1.01 =
(5,358.36) 28711994.7782384 2018 435,069.72 x 1.01 =
(3,615.71) 13073370.6126428 2019 439,420.42 x 1.01 =
(1,829.86) 3348386.98075605 2020 443,814.62 x 1.01 =
2021 448,252.77 x 1.01 =
94,957,392.37

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

94,957,392.37
5

18,991,478.47

4,357.92

S PROJECTED VALUES
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)² Year Yi - 1 x (1 + r) =
(14,834.73) 220069326.13015 2017 50,404.50 x 1.01 =
(15,319.11) 234675165.237872 2018 50,908.55 x 1.01 =
993.17 986382.234599701 2019 51,417.63 x 1.01 =
499.05 249055.349500053 2020 51,931.81 x 1.01 =
2021 52,451.12 x 1.01 =
455,979,928.95

∑(Y - Yc)²
N

455,979,928.95
5

91,195,985.79

9,549.66
 C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
ECTED VALUES n
Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
435,069.72 n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
439,420.42
443,814.62
448,252.77
452,735.30

C. Statistical Straight Line: Yc = a + bx

∑Y
a= - b
ECTED VALUES n
Yc n∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
b= =
50,908.55 n∑X² - ( ∑X )²
51,417.63
51,931.81
52,451.12
52,975.64
 ∑X 2,093,718.45 15
= - 5,966.57 = 418,743.69 - 17899.718 400,843.97
n 5 5
298,328.63
= 5,966.57
50

∑X 218,419.50 15
= - 5,040.45 = 43,683.90 - 15121.35 28,562.55
n 5 5
252,022.50
= 5,040.45
50
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a + b x = Yc
2013 406,895.32 1 1 406,895.32 400843.97 + 5,966.57 1 = 406810.55
2014 412,735.09 2 4 825,470.18 400843.97 + 5,966.57 2 = 412777.12
2015 418,658.67 3 9 1,255,976.02 400843.97 + 5,966.57 3 = 418743.69
2016 424,667.27 4 16 1,698,669.07 400843.97 + 5,966.57 4 = 424710.26
2017 430,762.10 5 25 2,153,810.49 400843.97 + 5,966.57 5 = 430676.84
2,093,718.45 15 55 6,340,821.09

Standard Deviation:

HISTORICAL VALUES
Year Y X X² XY a + b x = Yc
2013 33,603.00 1 1 33,603.00 28562.55 + 5,040.45 1 = 33603
2014 33,603.00 2 4 67,206.00 28562.55 + 5,040.45 2 = 38643.45
2015 50,404.50 3 9 151,213.50 28562.55 + 5,040.45 3 = 43683.9
2016 50,404.50 4 16 201,618.00 28562.55 + 5,040.45 4 = 48724.35
2017 50,404.50 5 25 252,022.50 28562.55 + 5,040.45 5 = 53764.8
218,419.50 15 55 705,663.00

Standard Deviation:
 PROJECTED VALUES
Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a + b x
84.78 7187.34 2017 400843.97 + 5,966.57 6
(42.03) 1766.23 2018 400843.97 + 5,966.57 7
(85.02) 7228.19 2019 400843.97 + 5,966.57 8
(43.00) 1848.63 2020 400843.97 + 5,966.57 9
85.26 7269.74 2021 400843.97 + 5,966.57 10
25300.14

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

25,300.14
5

5,060.03

SD 71.13

PROJECTED VALUES
Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a + b x
- 0.00 2017 28562.55 + 5,040.45 6
(5,040.45) 25406136.20 2018 28562.55 + 5,040.45 7
6,720.60 45166464.36 2019 28562.55 + 5,040.45 8
1,680.15 2822904.02 2020 28562.55 + 5,040.45 9
(3,360.30) 11291616.09 2021 28562.55 + 5,040.45 10
84687120.68

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

84,687,120.68
5

16,937,424.14

4115.5101913372
 D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²
TED VALUES
= Yc Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y)
a=
= 436,643.41 n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²
= 442,609.98
= 448,576.55 ∑XY
b= =
= 454,543.13 ∑X²
= 460,509.70
n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y)
c=
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²

D. Statistical Parabolic: Yc = a + bx + cx²

TED VALUES
= Yc Where: (∑X4) (∑Y) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y)
a=
= 58805.25 n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²
= 63845.7
= 68886.15 ∑XY
b= =
= 73926.6 ∑X²
= 78967.05
n( ∑X²Y) - (∑X²)(∑Y)
c=
n(∑X4) - ( ∑X² )²
) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 468,897,711.04 Year
= = 418658.67
X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00 2013
2014
119,331.45 2015
= 2,983.29
40 2016
2017
- (∑X²)(∑Y) 11,902.83
= = 10.627531
1,120.00

) - (∑X²)( ∑X²Y) 51,614,208.00 Year

= = 46084.114
X4) - ( ∑X² )² 1,120.00 2013

2014
100,809.00 2015
= 2,520.23
40 2016
2017
- (∑X²)(∑Y) (336,030.00)
= = -300.0268
1,120.00
 HISTORICAL VALUES
Y X X² X4 XY X²Y a + b x +
406,895.32 -4 16 256 (1,627,581.30) 6,510,325.18 418658.67 + 2,983.29 -4 +
412,735.09 -2 4 16 (825,470.18) 1,650,940.37 418658.67 + 2,983.29 -2 +
418,658.67 0 0 0 - - 418658.67 + 2,983.29 0 +
424,667.27 2 4 16 849,334.54 1,698,669.07 418658.67 + 2,983.29 2 +
430,762.10 4 16 256 1,723,048.40 6,892,193.58 418658.67 + 2,983.29 4 +
2,093,718.45 40 544 119,331.45 16,752,128.20

HISTORICAL VALUES
Y X X² X4 XY X²Y a + b x +
33,603.00 -4 16 256 (134,412.00) 537,648.00 46084.11 + 2,520.23 -4 +

33,603.00 -2 4 16 (67,206.00) 134,412.00 46084.11 + 2,520.23 -2 +

50,404.50 0 0 0 - - 46084.11 + 2,520.23 0 +
50,404.50 2 4 16 100,809.00 201,618.00 46084.11 + 2,520.23 2 +
50,404.50 4 16 256 201,618.00 806,472.00 46084.11 + 2,520.23 4 +
218,419.50 40 544 100,809.00 1,680,150.00
UES PR
c x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
10.63 16 = 406,895.57 (0.24) 0.05859073 2018 418658.67
10.63 4 = 412,734.61 0.48 0.2338856 2019 418658.67
10.63 0 = 418,658.67 0.00 2.18965E-06 2020 418658.67
10.63 4 = 424,667.75 (0.49) 0.23579784 2021 418658.67
10.63 16 = 430,761.86 0.24 0.05882976 2022 418658.67
0.58710612

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

0.59
5

0.12

SD 0.34

UES PR
c x² = Yc Y-Yc (Y-Yc)² Year a
(300.03) 16 = 31,202.79 2,400.21 5761028.62 2018 46084.11

(300.03) 4 = 39,843.56 (6,240.56) 38944553.5 2019 46084.11

(300.03) 0 = 46,084.11 4,320.39 18665732.7 2020 46084.11
(300.03) 4 = 49,924.46 480.04 230441.145 2021 46084.11
(300.03) 16 = 51,364.59 (960.09) 921764.579 2022 46084.11
64523520.5

Standard Deviation: ∑(Y - Yc)²

N

64,523,520.51
5

12,904,704.10

3,592.31
 PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x + c x² = Yc
+ 2,983.29 6 + 10.63 36 = 436,941
+ 2,983.29 8 + 10.63 64 = 443,205
+ 2,983.29 10 + 10.63 100 = 449,554
+ 2,983.29 12 + 10.63 144 = 455,988
+ 2,983.29 14 + 10.63 196 = 462,508

Methods
A. Arithmetic Straight Line:
B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve:
C. Statistical Straight Line:
D. Statistical Parabolic:

Note: The lowest standard devation will be

PROJECTED VALUES
+ b x + c x² = Yc
+ 2,520.23 6 + (300.03) 36 = 50,405

+ 2,520.23 8 + (300.03) 64 = 47,044

+ 2,520.23 10 + (300.03) 100 = 41,284
+ 2,520.23 12 + (300.03) 144 = 33,123
+ 2,520.23 14 + (300.03) 196 = 22,562
 To be presented on your Projected Demand and Supply

Year Total Demand Year Total Supply

2018 436,941 2018 50,405
2019 443,205 2019 47,044
2020 449,554 2020 41,284
2021 455,988 2021 33,123
2022 462,508 2022 22,562

Standard Deviation Methods Standard Deviation

ic Straight Line: 110.85 A. Arithmetic Straight Line: 4,601.28
ic Geometric Curve: 4,357.92 B. Arithmetic Geometric Curve: 9,549.66
al Straight Line: 71.13 C. Statistical Straight Line: 4,115.51
al Parabolic: 0.34 D. Statistical Parabolic: 3,592.31

owest standard devation will be the formula used in the projection

Standard Deviation
4,601.28
9,549.66
4,115.51
3,592.31
 Balut penoy echo matra
1 20 10 1 2
2 35 10 2 5
3 40 10 1 2

mean 31.66667 10 1.333333 3

11566.25 3652.5 487 1095.75

44 42 4 22 112
percentage0.392857 0.375 0.035714 0.196429

trays 124 48 35 23 230

48.71429 18 1.25 4.517857 0.344828
17780.71 6570 456.25 1649.018
17781 66384 456 1649

"1 43 43
"1/7
2/7 1 0.285714
43.28571
0.983766 per day