Model Types

POINT (STACKS)
 SOURCE GEOMETRY
LINE (HIGHWAYS)
NON POINT
AREA (CITIES)

CONTINUOUS (PLUME)
 RELEASE TIME
INSTANTANEOUS (PUFF)
(EXPLOSIONS, ACCIDENTS)

 SIMULATION TECHNIQUE  PHYSICAL : LAB SCALE MODELS

(EG. WIND TUNNEL , SMOG CHAMBER)

MATHEMATICAL MODELS
 TIME AND SPACE SCALES
 STEADY STATE OR DYNAMIC
 CONSERVATIVE AND NONCONSERVATIVE
 STOCHASTIC OR DETERMINISTIC OR ADAPTIVE
 DISPERSION AND RECEPTOR MODELS

***RANGE FROM SIMPLE EMPIRICAL TO COMPLEX METEOROCHEMICAL MODELS

 Air Quality Model Types
Air quality models

Dispersion/ Source/ Causal Receptor/ NonCausal

(SR) (RS)
Types: (a) Multi variate statistical analysis
(a) Rollback : AQ α Q (b) Chemical mass balance
C α Q C fQ f Q
i 1 1i 2 2i
(b) BOX: Neglects diffusion
Q Ci   f jQ ji
Cα
u i = species
(c) Gaussian dispersion model j = sources
Q Q ji = fraction of i in source j
C α D
u fj = conc. Of source j effecting receptor
(d) Numerical models Eg. two sources:
(Mass Conservation Approach) C i  f 1 Q 1i  f 2 Q 2 i

So solve equations for f1 & f2

 Receptor Models: (Example)
Mass Conservation: Total mass of Pb at any receptor point (R) is sum of contribution to
R of all sources emitting Pb.

CPb (R) = CPb(auto) + CPb(Smelter) + CPb(others)

Now, CPb(auto) = fauto* Qauto(Pb)

Where, Qauto(Pb) = fraction of Pb from total emissions in auto (gm/gm)
fauto = mass conc. of auto effecting R (ug/m3)
it depends on distance, meteorological conditions, etc.

Therefore, CPb (R) = fauto* Qauto(Pb) + find * Qind(Pb) (2 sources say)

or Ci = f1 * Q1i + f2 * Q2i

If two sources then measure another species k,

Ck = f1 * Q1k + f2 * Q2k

Here, f1 and f2 will remain same for i & k.

if Ci ,Ck , Q1i , Q1k ,Q2i and Q2k are known, the simultaneous equation can be solved to determine
f1 and f2 which is % contribution of source 1 & 2 to R.
General Equation: Units:
C = gm/m3
C = C1 + C2 + C3 -----------+ Cn
f = gm/m3
Ci = C1i + C2i + C3i -----------+ Cni
Q = gm/gm
C1i = f1 * Q1i

or Cji = fj * Qji

Therefore, Ci =

where, i are species and j are sources.

 if i > j, i.e. no. of species > no. of sources, then the simultaneous equation can be solved to
know f1, f2 and fj

 More the species, better the fitting. So, large data sets are needed.

 Solution Methods:
Linear Programming, Least Square Method, Back Trajectory, HYSPLIT
 Source Model vs. Receptor Models

Known source Estimated

emissions ambient
Source models
concentrations
Known
dispersion
parameters

Some known
source
characteristics
Receptor models Estimated
Known ambient source impacts
concentrations

Some known
dispersion
parameters
 Capabilities

Identification of unknown sources

Known Known ?
Unknown
Source

Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4

 Automobiles Iron & Steel Industries

Petroleum Refineries
Power Plants

Apportioning the contributions to monitored ambient

levels of pollutants among various sources
 Basic Data Requirement

Complete speciation of particulate matter

•Physical (Size distribution)
•Elements (Heavy metals)
•Inorganic/Organic

10 10 10
15
20

30
15
20

25

25

5
30

30
15
40
Concentration

Uncertainty
Concentration Uncertainty
 Signature Compounds
Source Indicator Size fraction

Motor Vehicles Pb, Br Fine

Soil & Road dust Si, Al Coarse

Fuel oil combustion Ni, V Fine

Cement Ca Coarse

Marine aerosols Na, Cl Coarse

Diesel emissions Ba, Pb Fine

Fly ash Se, As Total

 Advantages and Disadvantages

Disadvantages of Dispersion model Advantages of Receptor model

• Accuracy depend on EI and MET. • Not needed
Data • Capable of identifying unknown
emissions
• Fugitive/ unknown emission
unidentifiable

Advantages of Dispersion model Disadvantages of Receptor model

• Universal • Site specific
• AQ data needed only for model • Require large data sets
validation • Diagnostic model
• Predictive model • Useful for prioritizing pollutants &
• Useful for planning and sources
management
 Rollback Model

AQ or Concentration α Emissions
or C α Q
C Q C B or

2
 2 2

C Q C B
1 1 1

C1 ➾ observed or estimated concentration

C2 ➾ standard of pollutants (C2 < C1)
Q1 and Q2 existing & permissible emission resply
B ➾ background concentration
R ➾ % reduction needed in emission
Q Q C C
R  1
 100 2
 1 2

Q 1
C B
1
 Features of Rollback Models

• Control techniques based on roll back are very costly

• All emission sources are changed by same percentages
• Very useful for analysis of global scale problems.
• Has been used by EPA for control of severe problems like
oxidant formation.
 MASS BALANCE MODELLING APPROACH :
KEY ELEMENTS
I) A clearly defined control volume
II) A knowledge of inputs and outputs that cross the boundary of the control
volume
III) A knowledge of the transport characteristics within the control volume and
across its boundaries
iv) A knowledge of the reaction kinetics within the control volume

MASS
TRANSPORT IIN
INPUTS

CONTROL
VOLUME (CV)
(SYSTEM BODY)
PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL,
BIOLOGICAL REACTIONS
TRANSPORT OUT

MASS
OUTFLOW

ACCUMULATION = MASS INPUTS – MASS OUTFLOWS  REACTIONS

 Box Model

• Application: Area sources like cities, small industry,

refuse burning.
z
• Assumption:
Region is enclosed in a box. w
Pollutants are uniformly mixed in a box
H
Pollutants emission rate is constant L
Q = q * Area = q* L* W u

Conc. Of pollutants entering the box is b gm/m3

L - length of box parallel to wind
W - width perpendicular to wind
H - height ( Mixing/ Inversion height )
 K Models/ Numerical Models

Mass Conservation Eq. / Diffusion Eq

Ci C  C
 uj i  (k jj i )  R i (C1...Ci ...Cn )  Si (x,t)
t x j x j x j

(Rate of (Wind (Turbulent (Chemical (Source

change trans- Diffusion) Reactions/ term)
of port) Fick s law Removal)
conc.)
where
i = 1,- - - n ; chemical species
j = direction
u = wind speed
k = diffusion co-efficient
Si = source term
• n nonlinear coupled partial differential eq. can include
time varying met condition, chemical reactions etc.
 K Models/ Numerical Models

Types: (a) Langrangian

(Trajectory/ Moving cell model)
(b) Eulerian
(Fixed Grid/ Multibox model)
(c) Hybrid particle in cell
Particle in Cell: PIC,
Advection and Diffusion Particle in Cell: ADPIC)
Several sophisticated computer packages on K models
available (DIFKIN, REM, SAI, etc.)
 Weaknesses of K model
• Analytical solution only under some assumption
• Equations can be solved numerically (problems of pseudo diffusion
truncation etc.)
• Eddy diffusivity coefficient are empirical parameters not known with
certainty
• Large input data required
• Large computational cost

USAGE
• Also irrespective of math sophistication of AQ models – the correlation
coefficient between observed and predicted value varies between 0.4 to
0.8
• Hence simple models are often preferred especially in developing
countries
 Model Uncertainty
Model Uncertainty
= Natural Variability + Input Data Errors + Model Physics
(Stochastic/Inherent) (Instrument/Human) (Formulation/Assumption)

Model Physics
or Simulation

Total Uncertainty Data Errors

Natural or
Stochastic
Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Model Complexity (Number of Parameter)

Models become more realistic as more processes are simulated but reliability does
not necessarily increase
For any model there is an optimum number of parameters for which model
uncertainty is minimum