Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Candlestick Success
Candlestick Success
The
Candlestick
Success
Formula
Day 1
With
Steve Nison, CMT
President: Candlecharts.com
Candlestick Candlesticks +
Charting Western
Techniques Indicators
Steve Nison’s
Trading Triad
Success
System
1
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Reversal Signals
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SIMPLE!
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The Framework:
Analyzing Real Bodies
and Shadows
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2
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
high Shadow
close open
Real
Body
open close
low
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3
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Who’s in control?
Who’s in control?
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4
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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7
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Stocks Weekly
FX Daily
Options Hourly
ETF’s 30 Minute
Futures 15 Minute
Bonds 1 Minute
5
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria:
• Market in up or down trend
• Open and close prices are the same
(or nearly the same)
Market Implication:
Market at a point of indecision
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Those poor
traders who
got fooled into
buying here.
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6
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Which of these
scenarios is a more
likely top reversal?
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
ask@candlecharts.com 732.254.8660 USA
13
Doji in Forex
7
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Doji as Warning
Weekly Weakly
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
“Market is
tired”
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Doji in Context
There is no trend to
reverse with this
doji– thus we
ignore it.
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A B C
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10
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
DRAGONFLY DOJI
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Dragonfly
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11
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Gravestone Doji
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Gravestone doji
Close under
m.a. support
area but note
25 day how we got an
earlier
moving reversal with
average the gravestone
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12
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Shadows
Market Rising in
Agony
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13
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria
• Market in a downtrend
• Small real body (either color) at, or
near, top of range.
• Lower shadow at least 2x height real
body
Market Implication
“A chance to buy at the bottom “
Support or Resistance
Low of hammer as support
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Will often
retest
lower
shadow
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15
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
HAMMER
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1
5
4
3
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48
16
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria:
• Market in up trend
• Small real body (black or white) at,
or near, bottom of session
• Upper shadow at least twice height
of the real body
Market Implication:
Potential top reversal
Support or Resistance:
High of signal as resistance
Shooting star
hammer
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17
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Shooting Stars
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These
are NOT
shooting
stars!
18
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Shooting star
Hammer
19
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
High wave
2 3 4
1
20
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria
• Market in down trend
• White real body wraps around prior
session black real body
Market Implication
Bottom reversal
Support
The lowest low of the two sessions
of the pattern
Bullish Bearish
21
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
open
open
close
22
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria
• Market in up trend
• Black real body wraps around prior
session opposite color real body
Market Implication
Top Reversal
Resistance
The highest high of the two sessions
of the pattern
23
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
open
close
open
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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B
C
Basic Criteria
• Market in down trend
• Opens below prior low (or close)
• White candle closes more than 50%
into prior black real body
Market Implication
Bottom reversal
Support
The lowest low of the two
candlestick lines
26
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Piercing Pattern
Piercing Pattern
27
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria
• Market in up trend
• Opens above prior high (or close)
• Black candle closes deeply into
prior long white candle
Market Implication
Top reversal
Support or Resistance
The highest high of the two lines
that make up the pattern
28
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Basic Criteria
• Market in down trend
• First candle is an unusually long
black real body
• Second relatively small real body
(either color) within prior real body
Market Implication
Prior trend is “losing its breath”
Support
Not used
29
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Bull Harami
Bull Harami
Potential
Selling
climax
Basic Criteria
• Market in up trend
• First candle is an unusually long
white real body
• Second relatively small real body
(either color) within prior real body
Market Implication
Bulls losing momentum
30
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Bear harami
Forex Harami
Bearish
black real body
Criteria:
• First candle is unusually long
white
• Second real body spinning top or doji
• Second real body within prior real body
• Second real body opposite color Bullish
Implication: ‘Change in flow of market”
Bear Harami
Not harami
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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152
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33
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Bull Sash
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
BASIC CRITERIA
• Trend not important
• White candle followed by black candle that
opens within white real body and closes
under prior open.
STRICT CRITERIA
• Both long real bodies
• 2nd candle closes under prior low
• Black real body closes at, or near, its lows
PATTERN PSYCHOLOGY
The white candle means the bulls are running
SUPPORT/MOMENTUM TRADING the show. And then the next session the
market gaps lower and is not only unable to
• Highest high of both candles as
make it this lost ground, but closes under the
resistance
white candle. This shows the bullish energy
• Consider buying on breakout over has been sapped out of the market resulting
high of pattern in very scared bulls.
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Bear Sash
Bear Sash
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35
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Criteria
• Market in downtrend
• First candle is long black
• Second candle small real body that
doesn’t (or slightly) overlaps first real
body
• Third candle is white real body that
gets deeply into first real body
Market Implication
Bulls now in control
36
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Criteria
white or black
• Market in uptrend
• First candle is long white
• Second candle small real body that
doesn’t (or slightly) overlaps first real
body
• Third candle black real body that gets
deeply into first real body
Market Implication
Bears are now in control
Resistance
Highest high of three candle lines
Evening Star
Evening Star
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37
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Evening Star
38
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Windows
A rising window is
support
Support
Zone
39
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Candles in Context
Shooting
Star, but…
Rising Window
Bearish engulfing
pattern, but you must
not sell here!
40
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Importance of Windows
Shooting Star
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122
A falling window is
resistance
Resistance
Zone
41
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Large
window with
the bottom of
Small
this window
as pivotal
window
support
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Falling Window
Falling
window
The spinning
tops helped
confirm the
importance of
the falling
window’s
resistance
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42
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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12
8
Breakaway Gap
When the market gaps above resistance – or below support
43
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Breakaway gap
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Breakaway Gap
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Breakaway Gap
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Broke support
Small window
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Dumpling top
Island Top
Island Bottom
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46
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
R2
R1
Gap up Gap down
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What is next
support under
this window?
Island Bottom
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Island Top
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Candlestick Candlesticks +
Charting Western
Techniques Indicators
Oh my goodness! The
market rallied after the
shooting star!
49
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Scenario
1
Scenario
2
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Resistance
Resistance
Support
Support
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Change of Polarity
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Change of Polarity
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1
3
Why would we trade differently with Piercing Patterns
4 and 5, compared to Piercing Patterns 1,2 and 3?
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54
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
1
2 What candle signals are at 1 to 8? 6
3 Assume you buy at 8 where is your stop and 7
why?
Where are some areas of resistance ?
8
5
Target
Snap
Buy
Stop
Crack
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Stop
Sell
Target
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Price
Target
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Bollinger Bands
58
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Doji in context
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59
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
SQUEEZE
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Oscillators
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Oscillators
Objective
Separate from price
Divergence
Positive Divergence Negative Divergence
2
1
1
2
Price Price
1
2
2
1
Oscillator Oscillator
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Example: If total up points (close to close) over 14 days was $28 and
total down points for 14 days was $14:Average up = 28/14=$2
and Average down 14/14=$1.
So, RS= 2/1=2 and RSI = 100 – (100/1+2)=100-33.33 = 66.67%
Stochastics
Stochastics
63
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Stochastics
Formula for %K:
100 * today’s close-lowest close in N periods
highest high in N periods-lowest low in N periods
Stochastics
Stochastics
Using Stochastics
64
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Overbought/oversold, divergence
Price Oscillator
Formula:
short term moving average – long term moving
average
Example:
10 day moving average = $23
30 day moving average = $31
Price oscillator = $23-$31= -8
If 10 and 30 day moving averages are the same Price Oscillator = 0
Moving Average
Convergence/Divergence
(MACD)
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Moving Average
Convergence/Divergence
(MACD)
Bearish Divergence
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Stochastic Crossovers
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Bullish engulfing
pattern and %K
crossing under %D
line from overbought
reading in oscillator
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Overbought/Oversold
1 2
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Moving Averages
Moving average
price
69
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Moving Average
Convergence of Signals
70
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Moving Average
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Moving Average
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Doji in context
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Retracements
(B) $200
38.2%($162)
50% ($150)
61.8% ($138)
(A)
$100
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Retracements
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73
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Left
Shoulder
Head Right
Shoulder
Neckline
Neckline
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Head Right
Left Shoulder Shoulder
Neckline
Sell
signal
Head and Shoulders Top
74
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
neckline Interview
neckline Interview
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
Descending
Ascending
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Ascending triangle
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Bearish engulfing
pattern at top of bull
channel
target
76
Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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BOX RANGE
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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Harami with
target bottom of
box
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Steve Nison’s The Candlestick Success Formula Day 1
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79
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
1
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
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Move stop?
Adapt?
Exit price
Why did you exit
Analyze the trade
Exit
2
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
sold
Covered at support
before weekend
Protecting
your Assets
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3
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
4
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
5
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
Trade Overview
6
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: How Steve Trades
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Entered the
market here
Falling window
Morning star
variation
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7
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Nison
Candlesticks
with
Options:The
Essentials
Examples
XYZ January 70 Call at $3.10
ABC February 35 Put at $1.20
Call or Put
Examples
XYZ January 70 Call at $3.10
ABC February 35 Put at $1.20
1
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Underlying
Examples
XYZ January 70 Call at $3.10
ABC February 35 Put at $1.20
CALL PUT
Examples
XYZ January 70 Call at $3.10
ABC February 35 Put at $1.20
Exercise:
• to invoke the right contained in an option
contract
Assignment:
• to be required to fulfill the obligation
2
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
3
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Premium
Examples
XYZ January 70 Call at $3.10
ABC January 35 Put at $1.20
Strike Price
• The pre-determined • In the listed options
price at which the marketplace the strike
underlying asset will be prices are standardized.
bought or sold should – Stocks priced between 0-
the option be exercised. 25 intervals of 2 1/2
– Stocks priced between 25
- 200 intervals of 5
– Stocks priced greater
than 200 intervals of 10
Examples
XYZ January 70 Call at $3.10
ABC February 35 Put at $1.20
4
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
In-the-money
Out-of-the-money
5
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
At-the-money
90 In-the-Money
85
Market
Price
80 At-the-Money
75
70 Out-of-the-Money
90 In-the-Money
85
Market
Price
80 At-the-Money
75
70 Out-of-the-Money
6
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Calls
Market at $49
$48.00 3.77
$49.00 3.15
$50.00 2.75
$52.50 1.76
$55.00 1.17
Puts
Market at $49
$48.00 2.55
$49.00 3.01
$50.00 3.62
$52.50 5.20
$55.00 7.05
Time decay
7
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
RISK CONTROL
LEVERAGE
Buy at 144.50
Sell at 151.50
% gain on stock = 4.8%
8
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Result:
20% change in price = + $4.44 change in premium (792% gain)
20% change in Vol = - 5 cents change in premium (8.9% loss)
9
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Time Decay
10
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
32
www.candlecharts.com
At support
BULL PUT:
but any signs Mkt at 20:
of bears’
losing force? Buy 30-day 17.50 put for .05
bull put Sell 30-day 20 put for .70
spread
Net credit of 65 cents
11
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Candlesticks and Options- The Essentials
Exit at $3.87
12
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
The
Candlestick
Success
Formula
Day 2
With
Steve Nison, CMT
President: Candlecharts.com
Candlestick Candlesticks +
Charting Western
Techniques Indicators
1
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
4
5 4
5
3
www.candlecharts.com
These are
NOT bearish
engulfing
patterns!
This is a bullish
engulfing
pattern
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2
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
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Prevailing Trend
3
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
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Stops
4
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
Protective Stops
5
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
Candles in Context
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reward
Risk
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Risk-reward
1
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6
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
Risk/Reward
Thank you,
Gary B
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3
Is this hammer a
potential good trade
candidate?
Why or why not?
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7
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
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If….Then Rule
The bullish
ascending triangle
and the new high
close for the move
strongly hints that
the market will
break out. But
resistance held.
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8
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
Adapting
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Sell here
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9
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
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Market Chameleon
Buy
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Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
Adapting
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11
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
window
At last session on chart:
Entry Price
Risk
Initial Target- and
how did you get it
Number of shares
or contracts
Your notes:
YOUR NOTES:
12
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Trade Management
YOUR NOTES:
YOUR NOTES:
Case Study
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
13
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
With
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1
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
open
close
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Close Open
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close
open
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2
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Close Open
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Piercing Pattern
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Secrets of Intraday
Candle Charts
(for intraday traders):
Monitoring Daily
Support/Resistance
3
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Daily Chart
Hourly Chart
Feb.28 Feb.28
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June
26
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4
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
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Falling
window
Although
near
resistance
market is
still strong The
spinning
tops hint of
weakness
$40. Time to
pull the
trigger
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Secrets of Intraday
Candle Charts
(for Swing Traders):
Finding the Extra Early
Reversal Areas
5
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Hammer on
this daily chart
gives reversal
at $53.05
Hammer on
this intraday
chart gives
reversal at
$49.09 on the
same day
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6
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Hello Steve,
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Secrets of Intraday
Candle Charts
(for Swing Traders):
Finding “Hidden”
Support/Resistance
7
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
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Intraday
April 15
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Daily
Support zone
obtained from
intraday chart
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Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
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Daily Intraday
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How
important
is this
harami on
11/21?
9
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Intraday
Daily
Dec 9
Using
intraday
get buy
signal
here
Secrets of Intraday
Candle Charts
(for Swing Traders):
Using Intraday Windows
Falling
Window
Rising
Window
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10
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Intraday Windows
Most intraday
windows from
one day to the
next
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27th
28th
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Intraday Daily
3/28 3/29
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11
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Secrets of Intraday
Candle Charts
(for Swing Traders):
Is the Market
Overextended?
Overbought/Oversold
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Overbought/Oversold
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12
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Overbought/Oversold
www.candlecharts.com
Secrets of Intraday
Candle Charts
(for Swing Traders):
Was There a Successful
Test of
Support/Resistance?
Daily Chart
Aug 2
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13
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
www.candlecharts.com
Aug 2
www.candlecharts.com
Daily Chart
www.nisonfx.com
14
Steve Nison’s Candlestick Success Formula- Day 2: Intraday secrets
Intraday chart
www.nisonfx.com
Daily Chart
www.nisonfx.com
15