EDSC 330

Names: Anna Maddela Subject Area(s): Math

Lesson Topic: Conditional Probability Grade Level(s): 9th-10th

Standards
Literacy Standard(s):

CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.RST.9-10.4
Determine the meaning of symbols, key terms, and other domain-specific words and
phrases as they are used in a specific scientific or technical context relevant to grades 9-10
texts and topics.

Content Area Standard(s):

CCSS.Math.HSS.CP B.6
Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong
to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model.

English Language Development (ELD) Standard(s):

CCSS.ELD.8.PI.B.6a.Em
Reading/viewing closely: Explain ideas, phenomena, processes, and text relationships
based on close reading of a variety of grade appropriate texts of viewing of
multimedia using with substantial support

Lesson Objectives & Supports

Content objectives:
 SWBAT fill out a probability tree
 SWBAT find conditional probabilities from a probability tree

Literacy objectives:
 SWK the definition of conditional probability

Academic vocabulary:
Tier II (General): Define, Explain, Summarize, Pattern
Tier III (Domain specific): Conditional probability, independent
probability, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵), P(B|A)

Literacy strategies and Integrated ELD Strategies (SDAIE, Specially Designed

Academic Instruction in English):
 Student-Friendly Vocabulary Explanations (Buehl, 2017, pp. 206-209). With this
strategy, students will define conditional probability before starting to delve
deeper into computing it.
Assessment: How will you know if students met your objectives?
Content Standard: Students will be given a probability tree to fill out. They will have to fill
in conditional probabilities based on the probability tree. This will be collected at the end.
Literacy Standard: Students will use the strategy to define conditional then probability and
then combine them to get what they mean when used together. Will formatively assess
students based on their conversations surrounding the definitions.

Instruction: What you’ll teach, and how

Lesson Introduction/Anticipatory Set

Time Teacher Does Student Does
0-7
min Teacher welcomes the class and goes over
the topic for the day. Yesterday, they
worked on independent event and how to
compute probability of both happening by
multiplying individual events’ probabilities
together. Students know that probabilities
are between 0 and 1 and how to multiply
fractions/decimals.

Ask students if they remember the definition

Students come into the classroom and offer
of independent event. Then, ask if they can
answers on independent probability and how
explain how to mathematically find the
to compute them using mathematical
probability of two independent events
symbols. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵) This
occurring.
should be read as “The probability of A and B
equals the probability of A times the
Have a student write on the board how to
probability of B.”
write the probability of independent events
A and B occurring using symbols. Have them
read it out loud as they’re writing it.

Introduce the new concept of conditional

probability. Let students know that they will
be defining it before computing it
mathematically.

Lesson Body
Time Teacher Does Student Does
7-11 Students will take out a piece of paper to work
Have students take out a piece of paper and
min on.
write conditional on one side and
probability on the other

Students will say things like: “condition” is a

Under conditional, ask for clues as to what
clue. Students will talk to each other and
the word means. Students can
come up with context and relevant words.
independently define probability, as they’re
familiar with it. Have them work in pairs for
1 minute to use condition or conditional in
a sentence and come up with context clues
and relevant words for the definition.
Encourage students to write conditional in
their native language if they know it. Walk
around to see if people are getting the
definition correct or close. Listen for words
 such as “dependent, given, chance, affect,
and previous events.”

11- Come together as a class to define Students will offer up definitions of

15min conditional and then have students use this conditional probability.
to define conditional and probability
together and put the phrase on the word
wall.

Go over the mathematical symbols for

simple conditional probability and explain Students will ask questions if they have any
what it means using a simple probability and then watch the video. They will see how a
tree. P(B|A) means the probability that probability tree is filled out
event B happens given that probability A
will happen. Have them watch 0:00-2:52 of
the Youtube video for a quick lesson on
how to fill probability trees out.

15- Ask students if they know what March

25min Madness or Fantasy Football is. Ask a
student that is familiar with it to explain to Students will identify if they are familiar with
the class. Ask them to explain the bracket the concepts mentioned. They will think
system. While the student is explaining, about perfect brackets.
have someone hand out the bracket
probability trees. Pose the questions if it’s
possible to get a perfect bracket, but don’t
have them answer yet.

Tell students that they are going to be filling Students will fill out the probability tree. Then
out brackets of their own. They can they will find conditional probabilities and look
pretend that it’s for basketball, football, or for patterns. Students who are struggling will
any other competitive activity. Students be encouraged to use easy probabilities like .5
will fill out probability trees with the only and .5 for each branch and more advanced
condition given being that the probability of students will use probabilities like .17 and .83.
any two branches split from the same point
must add up to 1. Have them cross out the
first and last column and start from the
second most outer branches. Model a
sample of a few branches and show how to
find a couple of conditional probabilities
using multiplication.

Ask them to raise their hand once they’ve

completed their tree. From there,
depending on level, have them find the
conditional probability of certain outcomes.
The more advanced the student, the deeper
into the center of the tree they should go.
Make sure they use mathematical symbols
in their work.
 Ask them if they notice any patterns in
probabilities as they go towards the center.

25-40 Once students have completed their chart, Students will read the article and write down
min have them read the article attached. See if their thoughts. Then, they will discuss in small
their conclusion about the perfect bracket groups.
was correct and think about how
conditional probability is a factor in that.
Have them write their ideas down. Once
they’re done, have them discuss what
they’ve seen in small groups.

40- As a class, get answers to the question “Is it Students will answer the questions and
45min possible to have the perfect bracket?” and explain.
have them explain their answers

Lesson Closure
Time Teacher Does Student Does
Summarize what they know about
independent and conditional probabilities.
45- Let them know that there will be a quiz on Listen, write the information in their agenda
50min the two topics on Friday. HW is to fill out and pack up.
the rest of the tree by finding all the
conditional probabilities.

Instructional Materials, Equipment & Multimedia

Probability tree bracket Retrieved from: https://www.interbasket.net/wp-content/uploads/NCAA-
Tournament-printable-bracket-2019.png

Article on March Madness

Bennett, J. (2019, March 21). The mathematical madness behind a perfect N.C.A.A. basketball
bracket. Smithsonian Magazine. Retrieved from https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-
nature/mathmatical-madness-behind-perfect-ncaa-basketball-bracket-180971763/

Youtube video on Probability Trees

Barrow, R. (2009, March 27). Probability- Tree diagrams 1 [Video file]. Retrieved from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkDzmI7YOx0&

[PBS NewsHour]. (2015, March 30). How the biases in the back of your mind affect how you feel about

race [Video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6nn cquib9A

Differentiation:
Indicate how you could adapt this lesson for each of the following groups of students.
Adaptations might include additional literacy supports or scaffolds, texts written at multiple
levels, etc.

English learners: Pair with advanced students to see how the process is modeled.
Translate the article into their native language.
Striving readers: Give definitions of more difficult words that aren’t covered in the
student friendly definitions exercise.
Students with special needs: Provide checklists of each step of the process and
have them work with simple probabilities, such as .5
Advanced students: Have students look up different rankings of teams and assign
probabilities based on performance. (e.g. higher performing teams will get a
probability of .5 or higher and lower ones will get .5 or lower). Make sure that the
probability adds up to one for each game.