USSD Conference - Chicago

Wednesday 10th April 2019

Shane McGrath
 Image Credit: The Australian Government.
Source: http://www.anbg.gov.au/maps/aust-usa-map.jpg
Dam Safety Regulation
 All dam safety
regulators
permit the use
of risk
assessment
 Victoria
requires it for
Government
Authority dams
 ANCOLD
Guidelines
basis
Australian Context
 Failure rates similar to international
 Risk management practices in other hazardous
industries
 Government & businesses are attuned to risk and
managing public safety investments (e.g. hospitals
versus infrastructure)
 Risk informed business management
Australian Context
 “Engineers on top to engineers on tap”
 Risk assessment and portfolio approach >20 years
 First ANCOLD guidelines 1994
 Current guidelines 2003 – (under review)
The Law
 Legal system is common law with statute law
 Dam owner is clearly responsible for any damages
 Statute
 Dam safety is a State responsibility – the minimum
requirement
 Common Law
 Duty of Care to protect against foreseeable harm
 ALARP
 SFAIRP
Risk Assessment - Typical
 Screening level assessment
 Priorities for actions, investigations and “safety
reviews” using contemporary analysis
 Failure modes analysis (target investigations)
 Safety Review (engineering assessment)
 Risk Assessment – event trees
 Decision making and project investment
 Ongoing Review
Risk Analysis
 Case Study 1
Spillway ogee 46 m
high x 200 m wide
Embankment ~ 900 m x 80 m high
Outlet tower 72 m high

135 MW Hydro Spillway Chute ~ 60

electric power m wide x 400 m long
plant
Case Study 1 – Dam Details
 80m high zoned embankment dam – completed 1956
 Gated spillway (3 vertical lift);
 Extreme consequence category (ANCOLD)
 Issues
 Non-compatible filters
 Flood capacity
 Stability of spillway block
 Old spillway operating equipment
Spillway Hydraulics
Spillway Anchors
Spillway Walls
Condition of Core
 REFURBISH OPERATING
GEAR

CHUTE WALLS REPAIRED

AND BOLSTERED IN TOE
AREA
 Interim Upgrade Works
Societal Risk Criteria (ANCOLD 2003)
Existing
E1
1E-02 E2
E3
E3+S1
E3+S1+S2 (exc chute walls)

1E-03
Risks are unacceptable, except inE3+S1+S2 (inc chute walls)
E3+S1+S2+S3
exceptional circumstances
(F) Probability of failure per dam year with expected loss of life > N

E3+S1+S2+S3+S5
E3+S1+S2+S3+S5+S4
E3+S1+S2+S3+S5+S4+S6

1E-04 Limit of tolerability for

existing dams

1E-05

Risks are tolerable only

1E-06 if they satisfy the ALARP
principle

1E-07

1E-08
1 10 100 1000 10000
(N) Loss of Life
Costs and Risk Benefits
Case Study 2
Case Study 2 – Dam Details
• 90m high zoned embankment dam completed in
1957
• Fixed crest spillway
• Extreme consequence category (ANCOLD)
• Issues
• Non compliant filters
• Shear surface in core
• Flood capacity
Shear Surface
Other Areas of Concern
Numerical Analysis and
Crack Propagation Modelling
0.4%

0.5%

0.5 to
0.8%
Upgrade Scenarios
Costs and Risk Benefits

A Filter B Add C Add D Add F Plastic G Full

to Filter to secant secant Concrete Height
14.3m 18.3at filters filters Cutoff Filer
abut’s to 27 m to 27 m Buttress
RA RA & LA
Risk Assessment Conclusions
 Risk assessment is the principal method for managing
dam safety in Australia
 The process supports a methodical approach to the
understanding and ranking of risk - insights
 Is consistent with other hazardous industry safety
management and the common law
 Is consistent with enterprise risk management
 Provides a framework to demonstrate a “reasonable”
approach to risk reduction