CELTICS TALK RADIO SHOW 1

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T2Eg_zvq
NqQD_5TpE4Ns6xhElatXdLpYG1roZtRLyvE/edit
#gid=1139001835

Draft Pick Information:

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/
team

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612738/players/ad
vanced/

http://stats.nba.com/team/1610612738/lineups-
advanced/

http://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/bos
Blhttp://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/team/boston-
celtics

http://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/#!?Seaso
n=2016-
17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=DE
F_RATING&dir=-1

https://www.basketball-
reference.com/teams/BOS/2018.html

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/tea
ms/Boston-Celtics/2/Stats

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/team-stats
0.SALARIES

https://www.basketball-
reference.com/contracts/BOS.html

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston_celtics
/

- The National Basketball Association today

announced that the Salary Cap has been set at
$99.093 million for the 2017-18 season. The tax
level for the 2017-18 season is $119.266 million.

The minimum team salary, which is set at 90% of the

Salary Cap, is $89.184 million for the 2017-18
season.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement provides for
three different mid-level exceptions depending on a
team’s salary level. The non-taxpayer mid-level for
this season is $8.406 million, the taxpayer mid-level
is $5.192 million and the mid-level for a team with
room under the Salary Cap is $4.328 million.

0.INTRO-KNEWS , INJURY
REPORT

….INTRO…

1.SHOW
2.

3.SHOW
4.CELTICS TEAM ANALYSIS

6. TAX DETAILS-THE GHOST OF THE

LUXURY TAX
However, what changes for taxpayers could
give us a hint. Right now, as a non-taxpaying
team, Boston can make moves in the lower end
of its roster with a relative degree of ease, as
the Collective Bargaining Agreement
(CBA) allows such teams the latitude to make
deals within 175% of salary and $100,000 for
players making $0 to $6,533,333, and to trade
players earning $6,533,334 to $19.6 million.

It also lets teams move guys making more than

to be dealt at 125% of the outgoing salary,
plus $100,000, but the moment you cross that
taxpaying line (which the Cs are currently
about $8.6 million under), this becomes the
only option you have for deals, no matter how
much they earn. Given that all of Boston's star
players fall into this last designation save
Kyrie Irving, and nobody else makes more
than Jayson Tatum's $5.6 million deal, the
first two trade categories represent real options
for a team trying to deal with Danny.

It's worth noting that the coming cap crunch

next season will make it very hard for free
agents to move to new teams, and being
able to resign role players on cheap
salaries now will provide teams tools to avoid
paying the tax in a fiscally constrained
environment, and, perhaps more importantly,
limit teams who go far into the tax pursuing a
title from being able to be on the receiving end
of a sign-and-trade, which means the most
important tool a team can have in such a cap
environment would be off the table.

The second reason the Celtics could be

delaying the signing is simply to conserve the
ability to make a more flexible trade. NBA rules
differ as to how much money a team can take
back in a trade. The largest differentiator is if
the team is over or under the luxury tax. That
determination is made post-trade, which further
complicates the calculation. By keeping all of
their $8.6 million in space under the tax, Boston
retains flexibility. The amount of salary you can
take back in a trade as a non-taxpayer depends
on how much salary you send out in the trade:
· If you send out $0.00 to $6.5 million, you can
take back 175% of the outgoing salary, plus
$100,000.00
· If you send out $6.5 million to $19.6 million,
you can take back the outgoing salary, plus $5
million
· If you sent out $19.6 million or more, you can
take back 125% of the outgoing salary, plus
$100,000.00
A taxpaying team is confined to the same as
the highest tier of outgoing salary of a non-
taxpayer at 125% of outgoing salary, plus
$100,000.00.
It is highly unlikely Boston is going to make a
trade that sees them send out $19.6 million in
salary, as such a trade would involve one of the
highest-paid players on the roster. Alternatively,
such a deal would involve several players,
which would gut the roster of depth. So, it
makes sense for Boston to retain the flexibility
to make a trade under either of the lower tiers.
By delaying the signing of Monroe and
conserving that wiggle room under the tax line,
Boston can make one of the two lower-tier
trades of outgoing salary and bring back a
bigger salary in return. If they were to sign
Monroe and then make a subsequent trade that
took them over the tax, the amount of salary
they could return is limited.
The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement was
built to prevent dynasties. More specifically, it
was meant to not let big-market teams create
dynasties sustained by bigger television deals
and generally higher revenues. Luxury taxes
were not only raised, a separate tier was
created for “repeat offenders” under which
teams paying taxes three times in a four-year
span paid a higher rate. (This is complicated
and probably boring numbers stuff for some of
you but I’d highly suggest this explanation on
CBAFaq.com to get the full impact of the luxury
tax system).
That creates a system under which a few types
of players are highly valued: The franchise
mega-star, and the rookie phenom, and the
supporting player over-performing his contract.
Middle-class players like Smart who play very
well but who will never carry a franchise, can
often get caught up in the cruel finances of the
NBA salary cap. Just ask Avery Bradley.
Next year’s salary cap is projected to be $101
million with a luxury tax line at $121 million.
Between the big salaries of Gordon Hayward,
Kyrie Irving, and Al Horford, and the already
guaranteed contracts of Marcus Morris, Jaylen
Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and
Guerschon Yabusele, the Celtics will go into
next season $3 million over the cap with up to
seven spots to fill.
If the Celtics are trying to avoid paying a tax
next year so they can extended the “repeat
offender” window by one year, they will only
$17 million left to spend.
This is where the Lakers pick could mess with
Marcus.
Should that pick convey, the Celtics will
automatically be committed to a salary based
on that spot. Teams have some wiggle room
when it comes to this, but most teams tend to
automatically give the allowed 120% increase
to that player. Here’s how that shakes out.
Selection2018-19 Rookie Scale120 Percent Scale
2nd $6,036,200 $7,243,440
3rd $5,420,500 $6,504,600
4th $4,887,200 $5,864,640
5th $4,425,600 $5,310,720

If you’re keeping track, getting the second pick

would give the Celtics nine players to this point,
about $10 million to spend, and still no contract
for Marcus Smart. Throw in the
Celtics’ own late-round pick (slotted for about
$1.3 million), and guaranteeing the contracts of
Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis ($2.7 million
combined) and you start to see the crunch that
could squeeze Smart out of Boston.
Next season is the only season moving forward
where the Celtics can feasibly avoid the tax.
The following three season involve potential
contracts for Irving, Horford, Hayward, Brown,
and Tatum. A lot of money will be spent and a
lot of tough decisions will be made. That will
force the Celtics to draw lines in the salary sand
and say tough goodbyes along the way.
Smart very well could be one of those guys, but
it’s not a foregone conclusion. He is a restricted
free agent, and the ability for a team to match
deals typically scares off a lot of the competition
for a middle class salary player like Smart.
Teams go on big spending sprees to start
summers while restricted guys often twist in the
wind and watch their value drop.
 THE GHOST OF LUXURY TAX FUTURE

The Boston Celtics are a popular subject right

now. After all, there is less than a week until the
trade deadline and the Celtics sit atop the East
with a treasure chest of goodies burning a hole
in their pocket. The defending conference
champions, the Cleveland Cavaliers, are in
disarray and the Celtics are maintaining a
tenuous lead over the looming Toronto Raptors
for the right to homecourt. Even with Gordon
Hayward missing almost all of the season, the
opportunity seems ripe for the Celtics to crack
open their asset wallet, and get a little bit of
help to push this team to a conference
championship.

However, the franchise is set up for a prolonged

period of excellence which means that
decisions need to balance today, tomorrow, and
many tomorrows to come. A major factor in this
is the ticking clock on Kyrie Irving’s contract,
which he will almost certainly opt out of in 2019.
When that happens, the financial implications
will be significant for the Celtics and they may
wish they had used this time to plan around it.
In order to understand this question of ‘when’,
however, we must first understand the ‘how’ of
player maximum contracts work.

Understanding Player Maximums

I’d like to start laying this out by exploring the

salary structure of the Boston Celtics “Big
Three” that were not drafted by the team. That
is to say, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, and
Irving. As is typical for a player who got his
contract most recently, Hayward is the highest
paid on the team this year and is likely to
remain so through next year. He receives a
30% player maximum on this years cap. Al
Horford is not far behind at $27.7M, having
received a 30% player maximum on LAST
year’s cap. Both are receiving the maximum
pay raises that they were eligible for. The
Celtics are paying a little under 60% of the
salary cap for just these two players.
That brings us to Kyrie Irving, who is also on a
maximum contract. However, he is making
“only” $18.8M this season and will receive
about $22M less than Hayward, and about
$18M less than Horford, over this season and
next. In fact, the difference between Kyrie and
Hayward’s salary is more than the total season
salaries for the team’s 4th and 5th highest paid
players, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Morris,
combined. Why is that?
The answer has to do with player experience,
changes to the cap, and the way player
maximums are calculated. When a player signs
a new contract, the maximum amount they are
eligible for is based on the salary cap in the
year that they are signing. A player’s maximum
salary is expressed as a percentage of the
salary cap in the year they sign, with maximum
annual raises that are a percentage of that first
season’s salary. A player who signs a “30%
max contract” does not get 30% of the cap each
season, they get 30% of the cap in the season
that they sign, and then a fixed annual raise.
For example, the Gordon Hayward’s contract
was totally based off of a salary of $29,727,900
because that was his player maximum in the
year he signed it (2017-2018). His salary for all
subsequent years is the previous year’s salary,
plus 5% of $29,727,900. The salary cap figures
in 2018-2021 have no impact on his salary.

This is important because the salary cap can

change a lot from year to year, and that
changes just exactly how much money a
“player maximum” is.
For example, when Kyrie signed his rookie
extension in 2014, entering the fourth year of
his contract, the salary cap was $63.1. Kyrie
was signed to a full designated rookie extension
and five years were added onto his contract at
his player maximum, which was 25% because
he had under seven years of experience. This
locked Kyrie into a contract into 2019 where his
salary was totally independent of fluctuations to
the salary cap. His contract simply continued to
grow by 7.5% each year, the maximum he was
eligible for at the time of signing.

Meanwhile the cap, in an unsustainable and

historic way, jumped quite a bit during this time.
As a result, Kyrie is in the final two years of a
25% player maximum contract calculated off of
$63.1M cap instead of Gordon Hayward’s 30%
player maximum calculated off of $99.1M cap.
That’s how you end up, in 2018-19, with
Gordon Hayward making $11M than Kyrie
Irving.

An exceptional young player on a rookie scale

contract is the most valuable asset in the NBA,
and that isn’t just because they have more
years left in their career. They literally provide
the most surplus value on a year to year basis.
Even if you give them a full player maximum
extension after their contract runs out, they will
be more valuable and easier to trade than a
similarly skilled veteran player..

For example, you could have a player who

averages more triple-doubles per start than
Russell Westbrook making less than a seven
year veteran’s player minimum.
Kyrie Irving, who was drafted less than seven
years ago, is in the twilight stage of “being very
underpaid because he was young”. Jimmy
Butler and Kawhi Leonard are on identical
underpaid salaries for similar reasons. The
three are universally considered among the top-
20 players in the NBA, are all “max” players,
and yet make about the same money as Jeff
Teague and Allen Crabbe.

You may still be look at these numbers and

wonder why this should matter too much. After
all, the difference I’m talking about is a
difference of between three and four million
dollars to teams that are typically over the cap
to start with, right?

Witness Immortan Danny’s decision over his

beloved picks.
For this next part, I first want to explain exactly
what that the four lines of demarcation are in
the NBA, as all of their titles can be a bit
confusing, and they can run against each other
a bit. These important spending thresholds are
the salary floor, the salary cap, the luxury tax
line, and the apron. The graphic below can
help you understand roughly where they are
and what they do.
For the purposes of what I’m going to be
discussing today, the most important part is the
luxury tax line, which you can see the Celtics
are currently below.

It’s commonly misunderstood exactly how the

luxury tax functions in the NBA and
misconceptions about how punitive they are
can be attributed to the name. Typically, a “tax”
on something means that you are being
charged a fraction of what you are spending
such as with sales tax, or when taxes are
deducted from wages being paid to workers.
This familiarity with how the word ‘tax’ functions
outside of the NBA incorrectly frames how it
functions inside the NBA, where the money
being spent is a fraction of the tax and not vice
versa.

The luxury tax is subdivided into brackets,

depending on how far over the tax line a team
is. The further over the line you get, the harsher
the financial penalty. This isn’t a matter of
paying 15% versus 30% as the name ‘tax’ may
imply. Instead, it can be the difference between
paying 150% or 375%. This graphic shows how
rapidly the tax expands as money is added.
For example $15M over the tax line institutes a
tax payment of $28.75M (The sum of $7.5M +
$8.75M +$12.5M) for a total cost of $43.75.
Further complicating tax spending is what is
known as the ‘repeater tax’ which makes the
penalties even harsher.

The repeater is triggered by paying the luxury

tax in three out of four years, giving teams
incentive to try to end the year below the tax
line if they are close to it. The Celtics may not
be taxpayers next year, depending on the
Lakers pick and the restricted free agency of
Marcus Smart, but more than likely will be.
Paying a few million in luxury tax is not much of
a problem on it’s own but, because of the
repeater tax, unnecessarily wandering into the
tax too early can cause stiff financial penalties
down the road.

As I laid out earlier, Kyrie Irving is significantly

underpaid today but that will be rectified in the
summer of 2019. Kyrie will be moving from a
25% max contract signed based on a $63M cap
to a 30% max on a projected $108M cap, a
difference of over $12M/year. Should Al Horford
also opt out of his deal, he would also likely
need to be similarly paid, as the Celtics will
have no meaningful way to replace a player of
his caliber. Jaylen Brown’s extension will also
be right around the corner, followed by Jayson
Tatum’s. This means that, starting as soon as
next season, the Celtics will become a tax-
paying team with a smaller number of players
taking up a larger percentage of their budget
each subsequent season.

This is why an extra $4M here and there will

make an enormous difference to what the
Celtics are able to do. I fully expect Celtics
ownership to be ready, willing, and able to pay
the tax. However there is a limit to what is
realistic and the draconian penalties of the
repeater tax stretch that to the bursting point
very quickly. In the repeater tax, adding Marcus
Morris would cost about as much as adding
Kyrie Irving. Deeper in the repeater, adding a
mid-level exception player will cost as much as
adding a max-level player.
No matter what, the primary function of an NBA
team is to make money, and no amount of
contention will allow that goal to go unattained
for multiple years. If you don’t believe me, pay
close attention to the coming years of the
Warriors and what is going to happen to
Draymond Green and Klay Thompson when
their relatively cheap contracts near their end.
The Celtics will pay the tax because they will
likely have a contending team, and keeping the
large pieces in place will require it. However,
not planning right now for the time when the
Celtics will be taxpayers can significantly impair
the title window. It will be the difference
between filling out the roster (and budget) with
third and fourth year first round picks and ring-
chasing veterans instead of second rounders
and G-Leaguers on the cheapest minimum
salaries.

The Celtics are good right now and sending out

first round picks to plug their holes right now
seems like the right thing to do. There are no
guarantees for tomorrow and we know what
they are today. However, the players the Celtics
select with their first round picks this season
and next will make up the rotation of a title
contending team for seasons to come. Trading
those picks opens gaps in the franchise that
have to be closed with future moves. That’s a
cycle that other teams have experienced, to
their detriment.

That is what is at stake for the Celtics this trade

deadline. It’s about unnecessarily hurting your
upside and title chances in three years,
because Shane Larkin and Abdel Nader
currently fill out the roster and trading first round
picks at the deadline is what other playoff
teams do. Something else that most other
playoff teams do is not win championships. The
Celtics would be wise to not dim their own
bright future just so they can light a candle now.
http://www.celticshub.com/2018/02/05/ghost-
luxury-tax-future/
7.POTENTIAL FUTURE TRADE
KNEWS-DAVIS , DETAILS OF FUTURE
TAX…

Anthony Davis trade rumors 2018: Pelicans

star admits other players' regrets make him
think about his situation
New Orleans Pelicans star Anthony Davis admitted
Tuesday he listens when a former player like Kevin
Garnett stresses he should have requested a trade
earlier in his career.
"When you hear that it makes you think. I'm not
gonna lie," Davis said Tuesday during an
appearance on ESPN's The Jump with Rachel
Nichols. "It makes you think 'cause you're
wondering if you're following in that same
path. But then again, you're like, 'This year could be
the year.' You don't know."
"So, just got to take it year by year and just see,"
Davis continued. "See where the team is going,
what direction they want to go to and just see where
their head is."
Davis' future with the Pelicans has long felt
tenuous, and DeMarcus Cousins' injury last
month did nothing to solidify the situation in New
Orleans. Before the big man ruptured his Achilles,
the Pelicans were actually starting to play
impressive ball. During the conversation with
Nichols, Davis said he thinks "all the time" about
what the team could have accomplished with a
healthy Cousins. (See the video above for full
context.)
"We could have gone through the playoffs. Nobody
could really stop us as bigs," Davis said. "We could
have gone to the Finals if we went. You think about
all of it. Rondo reminds us of it: 'You guys are the
two best bigs. I know what it takes to win
championships. We've got it.'"
But after Cousins' injury, the Pelicans have as many
question marks as ever. Will Cousins re-sign with
the team this summer? Will he regain top form after
the Achilles issue? Will New Orleans be able to
acquire enough talent around Davis to convince him
to stay beyond his current contract?
Though a lot of questions need to be answered, the
Pelicans don't need to make a Davis decision right
away. The big man's current contract extends
through the 2019-20 season with a player option for
the following year. The organization still has some
time to figure things out, but Davis obviously has
at least the beginning of doubt growing in his mind.
You can bet other teams, like the Boston Celtics,
will continue monitoring the situation closely to see
whether one of the NBA's best players hits the trade
market soon.

Setting the record straight on the Anthony

There appears to be mass confusion over the
rumors linking Anthony Davis to the Boston
Celtics, so let’s set the record straight.
When Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans
visited Boston Tuesday to face the Celtics, it was no
surprise when the rumor mill started taking off to
Everest proportions.
Davis spoke on the record in detail in a feature with
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski earlier this season,
when he said — on the record — that Pelicans GM
Dell Demps told him last season that the Celtics had
been trying to trade for Davis and that Demps told
him that he was not getting traded.
So it was certainly a surprise when Davis said at
shootaround Tuesday that he has never held a
discussion with his front office about a potential
Celtics trade. Giving Woj the benefit of the doubt
that he did not make up an interview with Davis
after spending the last decade as the demigod of
NBA reporters, it appears Davis was lying about this
to try to kill the subject. Not a big deal.

Anthony Davis tries to quiet Boston

Celtics trade rumors, denies
conversation with Pelicans GM

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Here’s what Davis said to Woj in December:
“He told me that [Boston] was calling, but nothing
was going to happen,” Davis said. “At the same
time, though, you see how organizations treat
players. Isaiah Thomas. DeMarcus [Cousins] told
me that the [Kings] told him that he wasn’t going to
get traded, but they traded him. Isaiah took his team
to the Eastern Conference finals, and they traded
him.
“It makes you wonder: Does this organization really
have my back? I’ve been loyal to this organization. I
love it here. I love this team. I think we’re moving in
the right direction. DeMarcus, Rondo, some other
players that are helping us, but people get judged on
winning. And I want to win.
“It’s not about the money. It’s not about having fans.
The most important thing to me: winning. That’s
what I want to do. And I want to do it here.”
So after Davis did his best to kill the Celtics
questions, Woj came out again to clarify that there
are no actual links of value in this situation. From
LockedOnPelicans.com’s Jake Madison:
Woj on the Dan LeBatard show just said there is no
truth to rumors linking Anthony Davis and Boston.
 He said again that Davis wants to make it work in
New Orleans
— Jake Madison (@NOLAJake) January 17, 2018
Said it would take a drastic change in direction for
the franchise to move Davis. Team still wants to
resign Cousins this offseason.
— Jake Madison (@NOLAJake) January 17, 2018
These things getting misconstrued in the social
media age is no surprise. This is a relatively nuanced
situation that fanbases can easily mess up in the
telephone game with 280 character messages at a
time. So it’s important to establish a more clear
understanding of the actual situation.
 I reported before last year’s deadline (as did Woj
and others) that the Celtics were keenly interested
in trading for Davis and saw him as an end game
for cashing in their plethora of assets. At the time,
they had a promising prospect in Jaylen Brown —
who has since continued to rapidly evolve into a
potential All-Star — a potential top pick from the
Nets that turned into Jayson Tatum — also on an
All-Star track — and next year’s Nets pick that
 projected very high in a loaded draft class. The
reports were simply that Boston would like to
trade for Davis and hoped that after years of being
stuck in the middle and the potential for either a
friction-filled relationship with Cousins or
Cousins to leave would eventually propel Davis
to want out of New Orleans in search of a chance
to win. This was based on conversations with
several league sources with insight into Boston’s
thinking.
 The Celtics reached out to Dell Demps at the
trade deadline last year to see if they could get
Anthony Davis. The other 28 GMs in the league
probably did so too. They were told a resounding
no considering New Orleans had just acquired
DeMarcus Cousins at a cut rate.
 Boston continued its tire-kicking during the
offseason, but eventually cashed in the Nets pick
for Kyrie Irving. Of course, they now have the
LaKings pick which holds potentially even more
value at this point. Meanwhile, New Orleans
locked in a now-healthy All-Star talent in Jrue
Holiday for a five-year deal — which is looking
great right now — and brought in Rajon Rondo to
 try to keep Cousins moving on a straight path.
They are 23-20 after beating Boston Tuesday
night, so it appears to be working.
 In December, Davis provided the above interview
to Woj. It was the first hint that the theory he
could ever be available had some merit. In the
interview, there weren’t really any inkling that
Davis was unhappy. The only controversial thing
was him questioning if New Orleans would be
loyal to him after he saw Sacramento and Boston
be disloyal to Cousins and Isaiah Thomas
respectively. He conclusively stated in the
end, “It’s not about the money. It’s not about
having fans. The most important thing to me:
winning. That’s what I want to do. And I want to
do it here.”
 Davis appeared at shootaround Tuesday in Boston
and was asked about the comments quoted above
about talking to the front office about the fact that
Boston was trying to trade for him. He denied
such a conversation, contradicting his previous
quotes in the ESPN article. This appears to just be
him trying to kill the story.
Now the current status of the situation stands in the
same spot as before. Davis does not want to leave
New Orleans. He wants to continue to build a
contender with Cousins and Holiday and Solomon
Hill when he eventually returns from injury.
The variable at play here will be whether New
Orleans retains Cousins this offseason when he hits
free agency and if Holiday can stay healthy. If those
two things both fail, Davis may feel that he would be
stuck in a losing situation for the remainder of his
long-term deal and want to go somewhere where he
can have a chance to win as he enters his prime. It
would probably take GM Dell Demps being fired for
Davis to ever become available. More so, Davis
would have to turn down the DVPE and walk away
from an extra $40 million or so to really set the
wheels of an exit in motion.
This would set up an opportunity in the offseason for
teams like Boston to try to pounce. Davis is an
MVP-level player who isn’t even in his prime yet, so
Boston is just about the only team that can offer an
unprecedented package to reel him in.
But the good news is that things are looking up for
New Orleans and they should make the playoffs this
year. Davis doesn’t care about the fame or fans or
money. He just cares about winning. Now he may
finally get a chance to do it. The point of this
situation is that while it is very unlikely Davis
leaves, there is always a slim chance. But there is
always a possibility of any of these NBA conspiracy
theories coming true. The big difference this time is
that Boston has the assets to take advantage if the
situation ever emerges.
Edit 8:00 pm: Alvin Gentry has officially made
Anthony Davis available, via Steve Bulpett of the
Boston Herald.
“I know there’sbeen rumors about Boston trying to
trade for him or whatever,” said Gentry, “and my
response to that is, yeah, we’ll trade him.
“But they’re going to have to give us the New
England Patriots and the two planes that they just
bought. … And I don’t think they’re going to do that.
So we’re not even thinking about those kindof
things.”
Good luck with that Boston.
8.ARTICLES, OFFENSIVE SETS KYRIE ,
HORFORD
Kyrie Irving is a wizard with screens

The Celtics’ star point guard is excellent at

probing defenders with a screen.

To state the obvious, Kyrie Irving is one of the

most talented offensive players in the NBA. He has
an innate feel for the game coupled with one the
tightest handles the league has ever seen.
There are very few ways for defenders to go about
stopping him, as he can set you up off the dribble
and make nearly any shot from the three point line
in, whether there is heavy defense or not. And in his
short time with the Boston Celtics, Irving has done
things that we haven’t really seen from him before.
Last season with the Cavaliers, Irving had the
sixth-highest isolation frequency in the NBA at
21.4%. With the Celtics, that percentage is down
to 15.2% in Brad Stevens’ offensive system
predicated on ball movement. Boston has Irving
cutting and coming off of handoffs way more than
ever before, which has given him an added weapon
to his offensive arsenal. This spells trouble for NBA
defenses since Irving has shown that he is excellent
at probing defenders even before he starts his moves.
In Cleveland, Irving spent over 50% of his offensive
possessions as a ball handler either in isolation or in
the pick and roll. He was excellent in both
categories, ranking in the 95th percentile in ISOs
and in the 83rd percentile in P&R. The way Irving
attacks in P&R situations has changed slightly with
how he probes defenders with the screen.
Almost all of Irving’s P&R scenarios last year
involved dribbled into a single screen, and he used
that space to pull up or attack the rim. In Boston,
Stevens has his point guard moving without the ball
more frequently. This allows Irving to attack off the
catch using a screen, and he has shown an
impressive ability to keep defenders guessing on
which way he’ll go once he has it.
In the above clip, using his incredible instincts
Irving catches the ball with his body pointed towards
the screen and loses his defender easily
when Markelle Fultz tries to cut him off. It’s hard
enough to guess where Irving is going off the
dribble, but with the added variable of a screen it
gets that much tougher.
As mentioned above, Irving ranked in the 83rd
percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler with a 34%
frequency. So far this season, his frequency is
down to 30%, and ranks in the 95th percentile on
those plays. Irving’s effective field goal
percentage(eFG) on pick and rolls is up to 60% this
season as opposed to 50% last season, which could
explain the uptick in efficiency.
Probing defenders in the pick and roll isn’t the only
setting in which Irving creatively utilizes a screen.
Handoffs are a staple of the Celtics’ offense, while
the same cannot be said for the Cavaliers last
year. Irving had a total of 94 possessions in 72
games last year in which he received a handoff,
and he ranked in the 73rd percentile on those
plays.
Through 37 games this year, Irving has
accumulated 102 handoff possessions, posting a
60% eFG and ranking in the 81st percentile. Not
only has volume helped Irving in this statistic but his
misdirection and probing skills come into play as
well.
It helps to have such a great passing big like Al
Horford as the guy to feed you on this type of play,
but Irving does a great job here of making Kris
Dunn think he’s using the screen until he breaks off
to create separation.
Then there are scenarios like this where Irving jabs
like he’s cutting to the basket. James Hardenbites,
and Irving takes the handoff, uses the screen, and
bangs home the open triple.
Irving’s approach to these plays is a bit different
than what Isaiah Thomas would do when he wore
the Celtics uniform last season. Thomas would get
the ball off of a handoff and head downhill as
quickly as possible. Irving is more methodical in this
sense, which is probably more sustainable in terms
of wear and tear on his body in the long term.
Irving uses the same kind of shiftiness and quick
reads to effectively toast his defenders. This specific
skill set is not something we saw all that much in
Cleveland. Irving had a total of 133 combined
possessions on handoffs and cuts a year ago, and
already this season he has a combined 140 of those
possessions. It’s amazing how such methodical
movement was so underutilized last season.
Look at this play below. Irving heads towards Aron
Baynes to either get a handoff or just a simple pass,
and he immediately senses the defender over
committing, so he cuts it back for an easy lay-in.
As we approach the halfway point of the regular
season, Irving continues to show how much
untapped potential he had coming into Boston.
We’ve seen flashes of good defense, excellent
passing ability, and a level of leadership that can be
best explained with the 26-point comeback he led
over the Houston Rockets this past week.
With all of those improvements this season, one of
the key developments for Irving has been his off-ball
movement and the way he can probe and toast a
defender without even taking a dribble.
It’s very difficult to defend someone who can create
separation without the ball as well as he can with it,
and it can help free up Irving’s teammates if the
opposing defense’s main focus is off the ball. One of
Stephen Curry’s more elite traits is his willingness to
screen and move off the ball, and it’s good to see the
Celtics’ franchise player embracing that aspect of
the game.

I've always been drawn to big men who can

facilitate the offense from the elbows and top
of the key...and this is some damn good work
from @YoungNBA on one of the very best in
Al Horford and the Celtics (for
@bballbreakdown):

AL HORFORD’S PLAYMAKING AND IMPACT ON

THE CELTICS’ OFFENSE
By Shane Young

When debating or analyzing the stylistic transformations

of the NBA, three-point volume is often (and rightfully)
the main subject. An overlooked concept of the offensive
metamorphosis, however, is playmaking. While the
amount of record-breaking shooting performances is on
the rise, so is the amount of skilled, perceptive passers
who generate shots for others.

A common thing to do is automatically associate

“passing” with smaller players, typically point guards.
Whether you subscribe to the trite notion of “pure point
guards” or not, it’s an instinct most of us have. We are
asked who is the most frequent passer on a team, or see
the word “assist” and subconsciously think of point
guards.

In this era of basketball, playmaking roles are spread

across the board. Since the San Antonio Spurs and Golden
State Warriors claimed titles in 2014 and 2015, the NBA
has transitioned to a league that embraces ball movement,
versatility, and many positionless lineups. The idea that
any position in basketball has a true definition in role or
responsibility is becoming outdated.

Because of this, big men are evolving their play and

unlocking new components of their offense. Aside from
shooting more triples off pick-and-pops, a lot of bigs are
becoming key facilitators for their team. Power forwards
and centers, traditionally known as back-to-the-basket
players, are more gifted passers in this era than ever
before. Part of this development is due to the evolution of
more athletic wings, who have the ability to switch nearly
every action defensively. Instead of only attacking
mismatches in the post, big men are able to operate from
the perimeter, put the ball on the floor, and take advantage
of any defender in front of them.

Before the rebirth of fast-pace offense that jumpstarted

five years ago, teams were mostly following the 1990’s
and early 2000’s formula of an inside-out style —
generating 90 percent of their threes from dumping the
ball into the post, letting the center draw double teams
and burn the shot clock, and then waiting for a kick-out
three.

Now, we see players 6’10” or over 7-foot working as a

distributor from the elbow or top of the key. There are
more ways to kill your defense, with the fatal blow
coming off a pass from the biggest guy on the court.

Tim Duncan was both superb and underrated at it under

Gregg Popovich. Pau Gasol and his brother, Marc Gasol,
picked it up from international play and took it to the next
level in the NBA. Draymond Green is now the poster
child for power forward playmaking and running an
offense through pick-and-roll.

In Atlanta and Boston, we have seen another special

frontcourt talent establish this trait.

Under the offensive tutelage of both Mike Budenholzer

and Brad Stevens since 2013, Al Horford has turned into
one of the top multifaceted bigs in the league. This may
raise some eyebrows, but Horford fits the mold as a “Tim
Duncan lite.” He’s a player with the same altruistic on-
court approach as Duncan, but obviously isn’t close to the
productivity level and greatness of San Antonio’s legend.
Horford offers a similar vision as a passer from anywhere
on the floor. He also provides ideal defensive versatility
off the pick-and-roll, but isn’t close to Duncan on that end
of the floor, where Duncan may be a top five defender in
history.

At age 31, Horford has already been an integral part of

some fun, creative, and motion-based offenses. Now in
Boston under Stevens, he’s the most important player that
holds everything together. The term “glue guy” is
overused, but there’s really no better way to describe him.

“He’s been through every scenario,” Stevens told

BBallBreakdown. “He’s seen everything, he’s lived
everything. He can play the four or the five very
effectively.”
Since trading away Isaiah Thomas, it’s now Horford who
leads the Celtics in passes made. Unless it’s a Kyrie
Irving isolation, which is down to 3.4 per game compared
to 5.1 last year, each possession runs through Horford
when he’s on the floor. Each season since SportVu
cameras have been installed in all arenas, his number of
passes per 36 minutes has increased, now up to 58. As a
natural result, he’s accumulating more assists:

9.GAMES BREAKDOWN

10.ADDITIONAL
ARTICLES-OFFENSIVE
SETS WITH HAYWARD,
DAVIS
My latest breakdown on BDC: 1 play, 5
scoring options. How the read-&-react
offense creates opening after opening
One play, five options: How the versatile Celtics
might run their new offense

The Preseason Celtics have shown us one

thing above all else: They will be a LOT of fun
to watch offensively. They have shown a level
of skill that will lead to a number of open looks
for a lot of guys with the ability to put the ball in
the basket.
Whether that translates to 50-plus wins is yet to
be seen, but the Celtics’ read-and-react motion
offense is built for intelligent, skilled players to
make decisions which put defenders at a
disadvantage. The football adage “you can only
cover a guy for so long” translates to the NBA
as well. Defenses can only rotate and switch for
so long before a seam opens up for an
offensive player to find a shot.
Here’s one play which highlights this. There’s
no magic to it. The beauty is in its simplicity.
Guys are in positions to make simple plays by
reading defenses, moving on to the next option,
and further breaking things down until a good
shot presents itself.
First, the play in its totality: 10 seconds, three
passes, one made three. But there were two
options before that shot, and another two
options should Marcus Smart have decided to
do something else.
The set up:
Marcus Smart brings the ball up and hands it off
to Jaylen Brown before settling in the corner.
Gordon Hayward plants roots in the other
corner. He will not move this entire sequence,
but if you watch his defender, you’ll see why.
Because the ball is kept at the top of the key
the entire play, Hayward is always one pass
away, and must always be defended.
This allows the Celtics to basically use two-
thirds of the floor to play four-on-four.
Jaylen quickly gets the ball to Al Horford and
we’re off to the races.
Option 1: The Alley Oop
After passing to Horford the first option is a
simple back pick on Brown’s man. Brown uses
it and turns the corner.
If Horford wanted to throw the alley oop, the
super-athletic Brown probably could have gone
to get it. Look how much room there is coming
off the pick.
Dwight Howard is backpedaling, so he’s off
balance and unlikely to get high enough to
challenge it. But, since this is preseason, the
Celtics probably want to run through certain
options and get a pre-determined result. Much
like a Chris Sale working on a certain pitch in
spring training, the Celtics are honing the timing
of plays. When the season begins, once you
see Brown flip the ball to Horford, immediately
watch for an alley oop.
But since they didn’t, let’s press forward.
Option 2: Smart cutting backdoor
Brown quickly goes from scoring option to
screener. The ball is flipped to Baynes for two
reasons. First, he has a better passing angle
that, from that spot on the floor, still forces
Hayward’s defender to stay close. If the
Smart/Brown pick works out, Baynes can make
that pass with plenty of room. Secondly, Al
Horford needs to be free for the next step. For
now though, we’re focused on Baynes with the
ball and Smart’s read.

Look at how much room there is in the

restricted area:
Remember, Brad Stevens and the Celtics are
running a read-and-react motion offense. If
Jaylen’s defender was positioned differently,
Smart would have read the play and cut
backdoor. But since that defender is positioned
closer to the baseline, the Hornets can just
switch and blow everything up. If the defender
was on Brown’s right hip, we’d probably see a
layup.
So Smart’s read is to use the other pick coming
down from Horford.
Option 3: Pop up for three

Smart’s defender takes a bad path and runs

squarely into Horford. That’s all the time Smart
needs to get a shot off.
Smart’s three-point shooting has been pretty
good this preseason so he’s confident taking
this shot. Think about the Celtics running this
play with Kyrie Irving, or planting a different
shooter in the corner and running it with
Hayward.
But just because this ended with a made three,
it doesn’t mean that’s where the options end. If
Smart’s defender took a different path there are
two other choices for the Celtics.
Options four and five: More picks!
Here’s how the floor looked when Smart rose
up:

Smart has the ball and Horford is right there. If

Horford reads Smart is continuing the play, he
will turn right around and set another pick for
Smart. Brown will clear out to the corner and
Baynes will clear out to Hayward’s side to set a
pick there.

Smart now has options to drive. He can go

right, draw a defender and kick to Jaylen Brown
for a three. He can go left and drive the lane
and either find Hayward coming off the Baynes
pick for a three or backdoor for a layup. Baynes
can roll off the pick and go towards the basket
for a pass or offensive rebound attempt.
Horford can pop after the pick and Smart could
find him for a three. Horford could also roll and
Smart can find him for a layup attempt. Of
course, Smart can use his newfound skinny-
ness to dance his way to the hoop.
So while options four and five are simply
“Horford picks for Smart” and “Baynes picks for
Hayward,” the read-and-reactions give the
Celtics seven more potential ways to score
depending on how the defense is playing each
action.
A defense that has to keep guessing is a
defense that will eventually guess wrong. The
Celtics have a bunch of high-IQ guys who are
all capable of making the right reads and
reacting properly. Little nuances, like keeping a
dangerous guy like Hayward off in the corner
until he’s ready to strike, help open up
numerous options.
This is just one play, but you can see how the
Celtics will flow off each other throughout each
action. Each different play has its own tentacles
with different options playing out similarly.
When it all works, you will watch a fluid
symphony of passing in an offense that
promises to be wildly entertaining this season.
END