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presentation
July 2019
Agenda
2. Fiscal rebalancing
4
GDP grows for the 5th year in a row in 2018
GDP growth (%, annual change) GDP growth (%, quarter-on-quarter)
5 1.2
4
1.0
3
2 0.8
1
0 0.6
-1
0.4
-2
-3
0.2
-4
-5 0.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* I II III IV I II III IV I
2017 2018 2019
Catalonia Spain Euro area Catalonia Spain Euro area
*Forecast.
Source: Idescat, INE and Eurostat, . Source: Idescat, INE and Eurostat.
After three consecutive years of over three percent annual growth, growth moderates.
The Catalan economy grew by 0.6% quarterly in 2019Q1, 0.2 points above 4Q2018. It is a positive
sign after 2018 slowdown. The average growth rate in 2018 has been 2.6%, 0.7 points above the EA
average.
A moderate slowdown is projected for 2019 and 2020 (2.2% and 1.9% growth rate, respectively),
more in line with GDP potential growth.
5
Domestic demand continues to drive growth. Strong
performance of the services and construction sectors
Gross Domestic Product in Catalonia
More sustainable growth (% of annual real change)
of domestic demand and 2018 2018 2019
private consumption than in Annual 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st
the pre-crisis period. average quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter
GDP 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 2.1
The growth of investment Domestic demand 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.1
in capital goods stands Household consumer expenditure 2.0 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.1
out, which reflects positive Public administration consumer
1.9 2.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8
expectations despite global expenditure1
Gross capital formation2 4.6 2.8 6.9 3.9 4.7 4.1
uncertainty.
Equipment goods and others 4.7 -0.1 8.9 4.2 6.1 4.5
Industry’s sharp decrease Construction 4.2 6.3 4.2 3.5 3.0 3.8
moderates in 2019Q1. External balance3, 4 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.3
4
Industry has moderated its Foreign balance -0.4 0.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3
growth rates after the post- Exports of goods and services 2.0 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 -1.1
crisis expansion (4.8% y-o-y Imports of goods and services 3.6 5.0 5.1 2.1 2.4 -0.3
Source: Idescat.
uncertainty in Europe may
Note: macroeconomic forecasts by the Ministry of the Vice-presidency , Economy and Finance were released increase (mostly due to
in June 2019.
Brexit) and trade tensions
could heighten.
8
A highly diversified industrial sector
The industry sector grew at a
Industry GVA structure
much more moderate rate in
(% of total industry GVA, 2016)
2018 (1.1%) than in 2017
Chemicals, pharma,
8.6 plastics and refining (4.8%). This sector is the most
Energy, water and exposed to foreign trade
5.0
25.9 sanitation tensions, which in 2018 have
Food, beverages and generated a slowdown in foreign
5.7
tobacco trade growth.
Equipment and Its growth rate in 2018 is 0.1
machinery
8.2 points lower than the EA
Metals
average. Germany has
particularly suffered a slow
Transport materials
down in industry (0,7%) in 2018.
8.7 Timber, paper and In 2019Q1, industry GVA in
15.0 graphic arts Catalonia decreased by -0.8%.
Textile, leather and This slowdown is much lower
footwear than the sharp decline in
9.4
Others 2018Q4.
13.5
Employment in the high and
Source: Idescat. medium-high technology
industry represents 6.8% of
total employment, higher than in
Italy (6.1%), France (4.2%), and
Spain (4.1%).
9
Exports kept growing in 2018, amidst global trade
tensions
Trade balance in goods and services in Catalonia (% of GDP)
14
12 12.2
10
8 5.7 6.5
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Balance with foreign countries Balance with Spain External balance
Source: Idescat.
Exports of goods by destination (% of total)
In 2018, Catalonia’s trade surplus was 65 65
12.2% of GDP. Surplus with foreign countries 64
60 61
and the rest of Spain had similar dimensions. 57 57
59
55 54 54
65% of goods were exported abroad, while 52 53
35% were exported to Spain. The EU-28 is 50
50 47
48
the main destination of foreign Catalan 45
46
46
43
exports: 64.6% of the total in 2018. Outside 40
43 41
39
the EU, remarkable increase of exports 36
35 35
towards the USA, China and Japan. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
abroad to Spain
11
Positive developments in the labour market
Social Security Affiliations (% annual change) In 2018, Social Security affiliations grew by
6
3% and LFS employment grew by 2.7%.
3.5% 3.7% 3,8%
4 During 2008-2013 the number of
affiliations fell by an annual -3.2% 3.0%
Growth remains robust but is slightly lower than
2 in the last three years. Employment grew
significantly in construction and services.
0
-2
Unemployment rate has decreased to 11.6%
(2019Q1).
-4
The employment rate stood in 2018 at
-6
67.9%, similar to the EA level (67.3%). Higher
-8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
unemployment in Catalonia is mainly due to a
Source: Ministry of Employment and Social Security. higher proportion of active population.
Unemployment rate (% unemployed/active population) Percentage of working age population (15-64 years), 2018
100
30
23.2 % 26.6 %
25 80
8.9 % 6.1 %
20 23.1
60
20.3
15 18.6
15.7 40
10 13.4 11.5
11.6 67.9 % 67.3 %
5 20
0
00
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019Q1 Catalonia Euro area
Catalonia Spain Euro area % of inactive people % of unemployed % of employed people (employment rate)
Source: Idescat, INE and Eurostat. Source: compilation based on data from Idescat and Eurostat. 12
Agenda
2. Fiscal rebalancing
-4 -4.21
-4.11
-4.48*
-5
-6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
out. out. out. out. out. out. out. out. out. out. out. out. out.
Deficit
* Including one-off adjustments targets
Fiscal consolidation is a priority for the Catalan Government. The public accounts are being
rebalanced under the principles of efficiency and sustainability.
From 2010 Catalonia has reduced its deficit from 4.48% of GDP in 2010 to 0.44% of GDP in 2018
(8,075 M€ in 7 years).
14
Budget balance
The structural budget deficit has reduced 2.86 GDP points (from 3.46% in 2010 to 0.60% in
2018). The structural budget annual average reduction has been 0.36 points.
The effort to reduce the deficit was 8,075 M€ (-89%) between 2010 and 2018.
1,0
0.32 0.25 0.31
0,0
-0.08 -0.09
-0.28
-0.36 -0.33 -0.44
-1,0 -0.56 -0.56 -0.22 -0.54 -0.60
-0.86 -0.94 -0.83 -0.91
-1.20
% GDP
-1.28
-2,0
-1.86
-2.24 -2.27 -2.15
-3,0 -2.66 -0.67
-2.95 -3.10 -2.83
-1.13
-3.46 -3.10
-4,0
-1.89
-3.72 -4.11
-4.48
-5,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual balance Cyclically-adjusted budget balance Structural budget balance Structural primary balance
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Variation
Outturn Outturn Outturn Outturn Outturn Outturn Outturn Outurn Outurn 2018-2010
Amount %
Actua l ba la nce -9,100 -8,219 -4,437 -4,144 -5,233 -5,832 -1,939 -1,244 -1,025 8,075 -89%
Cycli ca ll y-a djus ted budget ba la nce -7,571 -6,201 -1,688 -1,085 -2,464 -7,803 -741 -706 -1,247 6,324 -84%
Structura l budget ba l a nce * -7,033 -6,201 -3,627 -1,593 -2,288 -6,249 -553 -895 -1,378 5,655 -80%
Structura l pri ma ry ba la nce -5,997 -4,490 -1,844 617 -91 -5,296 569 300 -205 5,792 -97%
* Cycli ca ll y-a djus ted budget ba l a nce excluding one-off a nd other tempora ry mea s ures .
Calculations based on the Spanish Economy Situation Report data, published by Ministry of Economy and
Competitiveness. Source: Compilation based on IGAE (State Government Comptroller's Office) data. SEC 2010.
15
Fiscal consolidation measures
Revenue measures
Million €
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
In 2018, the revenue
Recurrent
1
515 882 1,594 1,096 1,126 1,279 1,399 measures were 1,399 M€,
Non recurrent
2
1,358 212 331 0 0 0 0 0.6 GDP points.
Non-financial revenues increase 9,3% 5,5% 9,6% 5,4% 5,0% 5,3% 5,6%
% GDP 1,0% 0,6% 1,0% 0,5% 0,5% 0,6% 0,6%
Revenue measures 1,873 1,094 1,925 1,096 1.126 1,279 1,399
1
Wi thout revenues from mea s ures decl ared uncons tituti onal
Between 2010 and 2016,
2
Wi thout addi tiona l mea s ures current expenditures
were reduced 1,414 M€
Expenditure measures
Million € (5.9%).
2010 2018 Variation 2010-2018
M€ %
Employees compensation 7,547 7,783 236 3.1
Current expenditures on goods and services 7,971 8,637 666 8.4 The accrued expenditures
Current transfers 8,443 7,914 -529 -6.3 without interests have been
Current expenditures 23,961 24,334 374 1.6
Real investments 1,176 444 -732 -62.2 reduced 1,016 M€ (3.9%).
Capital transfers 1,133 474 -658 -58.1
Capital expenditures 2,308 918 -1,390 -60.2
Accrued expenditures without interests 26,269 25,253 -1,016 -3.9
Entities result
1
-1,718 138 1,856 -
The total adjustment has
Other expenditures displaced
2
-406 0 406 - been 3,278 M€, 1.4 GDP
Total adjustment -3,278 points.
% GDP -1.4
1
Capital contributions included
2
Displaced expenditures not imputed by chapters
16
Fiscal consolidation – Tax measures
Recurrent revenue measures. M€
Settlement
Tax measures
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tax on wealth (recovery and increase of taxation) 305.0 562.7 431.3 461.7 495.5 511.4 534.1
Increase in tax rates on documented legal acts 40.5 45.6 49.0 63.5 68.7 103.9 111.7
Increase in the rates of the autonomous section of the hydrocarbon tax 60.8 139.0 109.1 106.0 107.1 107.5 106.7
Increase in property tax rates -- 35.0 174.7 199.4 226.7 274.0 283.9
Reform of inheritance tax -- -- 45.2 130.5 119.8 114.6 120.2
Reform of the civil protection levy -- -- -- -- 0.2 0.2 0.2
Taxation on gambling -- -- -- -- -- 12.6 13.3
Increase in the rates of the income tax for high levels of income 57.8 57.9 55.3 52.7 58.0 73.3 86.4
Reform of shopping center tax -- -- -- -- -- -- 8.7
Modification of taxes 464.0 840.2 864.5 1,013.9 1,076.1 1,197.5 1,265.2
Judicial fees 5.1 2.1 0.0 2.3 2.7 3.5 --
Tax on stays in tourist establishments -- 35.2 41.0 43.2 47.6 52.5 60.9
Tax on the emission of gases and particles into the atmosphere -- -- -- 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.4
Tax on pollutant emissions of nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere from
commercial aviation -- -- -- -- 3.0 3.2 4.3
(1)
Tax on empty housing -- -- -- -- 11.5 18.4 16.3
Tax on beverages with excess sugar -- -- -- -- -- 22.7 41.9
Environmental risk tax on the production, handling and transport, custody
and emission of radioactive elements -- -- -- -- -- 7.4 9.9
Creation of new taxes 5.1 37.3 41.0 45.6 65.8 108.6 133.7
Total tax measures 469.1 877.5 905.5 1,059.5 1,141.9 1,306.0 1,398.9
Pharmaceutical prescription or product tax 45.6 4.3 0.0 -0.9 -2.3 -- --
Tax on deposits of credit institutions -- -- 688.3 -- -- -- --
Tax on the provision of content by providers of electronic communication
services -- -- -- 7.3 18.4 -27.4 -0.1
Tax on the production of electrical energy of nuclear origin 30.3 -32.3 0.0
Declared unconstitutional 45.6 4.3 688.3 36.6 -16.1 -27.4 -0.1
Global tax measures 514.7 881.9 1593.8 1,096.1 1,125.8 1,278.6 1,398.9
(1)
Pending res ol uti on of the a ppea l fi l ed by the Sta te before the Cons ti tutiona l Court.
17
Evolution of public sector entities and job positions
Public sector entities included in the budget 2011 2012 2014 2015 2017 2019*
Generalitat 1 1 1 1 1 1
CatSalut, ICS, i ICASS 3 3 3 - - -
Aut. admin. entities and Catalan Healthcare Service 25 23 19 20 20 20
Autonomous commercial and financial entities 5 3 2 2 2 2
Public law companies 46 47 43 44 44 45
Trading companies 52 47 30 26 27 27
Consortiums 62 61 50 50 54 62
Foundations 46 43 35 37 34 34
Total public sector entities 240 228 183 180 182 191
Total other entities non-majority shareholding 28 26 26 24 19 6
Consortium non-majority shareholding2 - - - - 2 5
Total entities 268 254 209 204 203 202
Job positions included in the public sector consolidated budget 2011 2017 2019* -66 entities
Executive and consulting personnel 549 566 583 (-24.6%
compared
Civil servants 168,113 166,392 173,122 to 2011)
Private regulation personnel 62,351 60,620 66,785
Total public sector 231,013 227,578 240,490
* 2019 budget draft
Down budgeting
discipline
Spending Reviews
Budget transparency
Capacity building
Performance budgeting
Policy Evaluation
Allocative efficiency
Operational efficiency
and effectiveness
Monitoring
19
Budget reforms to improve expenditure management
20
Public sector administration
Revenue
Mi l l i on €
Var 2018/2017
Chapter Outturn 2017 Outturn 2018
M€ %
1. Direct taxes 10,153 10,663 511 5,0
2. Indirect taxes 11,662 12,533 871 7,5
3. Fees, sales and other revenue 789 782 -7 -0,9
4. Current transfers ¹ 1,350 714 -636 -47,1
5. Property revenue 60 56 -3 -5,6
Current revenue 24,013 24,749 736 3,1
6. Real investment disposal 9 19 10 111,2
7. Capital transfers 114 187 74 65,1
Capital revenue 123 206 84 68,5
Non-financial revenue 24,136 24,956 820 3,4
8. Financial assets 198 131 -68 -34,1
Total revenue 1 to 8 24,334 25,086 752 44,5
9. Financial liabilities (total borrowing) 8,412 12,154 3,743 42,7
Total revenue 1 to 9 32,746 37,241 4,495 13,7
(1) It does not include Loca l governments s hare of Centra l Government's revenue nei ther European
Agri cul tura l Guara ntee Fund (EAGF)
21
Public sector administration
Expenditure
Mi l l ion €
Var 2018/2017
Chapter Outturn 2017 Outturn 2018
M€ %
1. Employee compensation 7,450 7,762 312 4.2
2. Current expend. on goods and services ¹ 8,253 8,354 100 1.2
3. Interest and financial fees 792 850 57 7.3
4. Current transfers ¹ 7,751 7,876 124 1.6
5. Contingency fund 0 0 0 0.0
Current expenditures 24,247 24,841 594 2.4
6. Real investments 488 448 -40 -8.1
7. Capital transfers 514 468 -46 -9.0
Capital expenditures 1,002 916 -86 -8.6
Non-financial expenditures 25,249 25,757 508 -2.0
8. Financial assets ² 746 686 -60 -8.1
Total expenditures chapters 1 to 8 25,995 26,443 448 1.7
9. Financial liabilities (debt repayment) 5,207 11 5,403 103.8
Total expenditure chapters 1 to 9 31,202 37,053 5,851 18.8
(1) It does not i ncl ude Loca l governments s ha re of Centra l Government's revenue nei ther Europea n
Agri cul tura l Gua ra ntee Fund (EAGF).
(2) Equi ty contri buti ons to publ i c s ector enti ti es , gra nted l oa ns a nd a cqui s i ti on of other fi na ncia l a s s ets .
22
Structural adjustment by level of administration
23
Non-financial balance
Principal budgetary features of liquidated budget of the Administrative Public Sector* of the Generalitat of Catalonia
* Admi ni s tra ti on of the Genera l i ta t, Ca ta l a n Hea l th Servi ce, Ca ta l a n Hea l th Ins ti tute a nd a utonomous a dmi ni s tra ti ve bodi es . Sta rti ng from 2015, i t
does not i ncl ude the Ca ta l a n Hea l th Ins ti tute beca us e i t ha s become a publ i c-l a w body.
24
Spanish Fiscal Deficit can only be understood under a
consolidated view
Regional revenues based on a complex and unbalanced financing model
Financial analysts can not spend enough time to understand it.
And in any case it is not a sustainable framework and has to be renegotiated.
25
Agenda
2. Fiscal rebalancing
TOTAL 79,218 M€
GENERALITAT’S
07/22/2019
RATING
DBRS BB high (stable)
Fitch BB (stable)
Moody’s Ba3 (stable)
27
Moving towards a more balanced debt portfolio
28
Debt repayments
LONG TERM DEBT REPAYMENTS - GENERALITAT DE CATALUNYA
SITUATION AS OF 06/30/2019
Million €
11,000
Million €
MONTHLY National Foreign Liquidity
Bonds TOTAL
10,000 REPAYMENTS Loans* Loans Mechanisms
July 2019 3 23 989 1,015
9,000 August 2019 3 2 23 27
September 2019 14 14 182 210
8,000
October 2019 21 10 833 864
November 2019 9 65 23 97
7,000
December 2019 60 44 182 286
6,000 TOTAL 2H 2019 0 110 157 2,232 2,499
* National loan repayments include 27M€ of PPP.
5,000
4,000
Average Life = 4.29 years
3,000
2,000
1,000
Million €
SHORT TERM OUTSTANDING DEBT 06/30/2019
Loans & C.Lines (Million €) 1,912
29
Liquidity mechanisms
CATALONIA
TOTAL CCAA
Initial amount Outstanding amount (06/30/19) Current cost
ICO financial maturities 5.397 1.304 0 -
Suppliers payment fund (Part 1) 17.705 2.020 1.010 0,834%
FLA 2012 16.638 6.665 4.166 0,834%
TOTAL 2012 39.740 9.989 5.175
FLA 2013 22.921 10.815 5.407 0,834%
Suppliers payment fund (Part 2) 939 738 484 0,834%
Suppliers payment fund (Part 3 - 1st Tranche) 3.606 1.489 837 0,834%
TOTAL 2013 27.465 13.041 6.729
Suppliers payment fund (Part 3 - 2nd Tranche) 7.970 2.306 1.369 0,834%
FLA 2014 23.215 7.913 5.935 0,834%
TOTAL 2014 31.185 10.219 7.304
Financial Facility 2015 14.267 0 0 -
FLA 2015 22.830 11.292 8.469 0,834%
Social Fund 2015 683 397 298 0,834%
TOTAL 2015 37.781 11.689 8.767
Financial Facility 2016 2.999 0 0 -
FLA 2016 28.182 10.069 8.810 0,500%
TOTAL 2016 31.181 10.069 8.810
Financial Facility 2017 3.634 0 0 -
FLA 2017 23.960 7.748 7.748 0,849%
TOTAL 2017 27.594 7.748 7.748
Financial Facility 2018 9.280 0 0 -
FLA 2018 20.648 9.435 9.373 0,846%
TOTAL 2018 29.928 9.435 9.373
Financial Facility 2019 (1Q+2Q+3Q) 11.820 6.534 5.081 0.981% (P)
FLA 2019 (1Q+2Q+3Q) 9.520 0 0 -
TOTAL 2019 (1Q+2Q+3Q) 21.339 6.534 5.081
TOTAL 58.986 30
2018 needs and strategy
2018 Funding Needs Million € 2018 Funding Strategy Million €
Non-financial needs 1,058 2018 Deficit goal
933
2018 Deficit goal (0.4% of GDP) 933 (0.4% of GDP)
Devolution 2008-09 neg. liq. of fin. system 125
Dev. 2008-09
125
2018 Maturities (Generalitat) 7,884 FLA 2018 9,373 neg.liq. of fin.system
Long term loans 6,194 2018 Maturities
· Liquidity Mechanisms 5,454 (bonds; long term
8,315
· Foreign Banks 310 loans; liquidity
· Spanish Banks1 397 mechanisms; others)
· PPP 33
Bonds 1,690
32
Evolution of funding needs
Other 125
Liq. Mechanisms 6,713
LT National Loans 537
LT Foreign Loans 430
LT Bonds 0
Deficit (0.1% GDP) 242
33
2019 needs and strategy
2019 Funding Needs (estimate) Million € 2019 Funding Strategy (estimate) Million €
Non-financial needs 367
2019 Deficit goal
2019 Deficit goal (0.1% of GDP) 242 242
(0.1% of GDP)
Devolution 2008-09 neg. liq. of fin. system 125
34
DISCLAIMER
This presentation has been prepared by Generalitat de Catalunya.
The information contained in this presentation is elaborated based on the present
political situation and the existing legal and financial framework and must be read in
conjunction with all other publicly available information regarding Generalitat de
Catalunya. Each user of this presentation must make its own study and shall
independently evaluate and judge the relevance of the information contained herein.
This presentation is not intended to provide investment or financial advice, nor does it
constitute a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold notes issued by Generalitat de
Catalunya.
CONTACT:
economia.gencat.cat
inversors.eco@gencat.cat
35
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