From: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.

gov>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: John Christy's latest ideas]
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 12:06:45 -0800
Reply-to: santer1@llnl.gov

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Dear Phil,

If you get a chance, could you call me up at work (+1 925 423-3364) to
talk about the "IJC publication" option? I'd really like to discuss that
with you.

With best regards,

Ben
Phil Jones wrote:
>
> Ben,
> Almost said something about this in the main email about the diagrams!
> Other emails and a couple of phone calls distracting me - have to make
> sure
> I'm sending the right email to the right list/person!
> He's clearly biased, but he gets an audience unfortunately. There are
> enough people out there who think we're wrong to cause me to worry at
> times.
> I'd like the world to warm up quicker, but if it did, I know that
> the sensitivity
> is much higher and humanity would be in a real mess!
>
> I'm getting people misinterpreting my comment that went along with
> Chris Folland's press release about the 2008 forecast. It says we're
> warming at 0.2 degC/decade and that is exactly what we should be.
> The individual years don't matter.
>
> CA are now to send out FOIA requests for the Review Editor comments
> on the AR4 Chapters. For some reason they think they exist!
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
> At 16:52 09/01/2008, you wrote:
>> Dear Phil,
>>
>> I can't believe John is now arguing that he's the only guy who can
>> provide unbiased assessments of model performance. After all the
>> mistakes he's made with MSU, and after the Douglass et al. fiasco, he
>> should have acquired a little humility. But I guess "humility" isn't
>> in his dictionary...
>>
>> With best regards,
>>
>> Ben
>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>> Ben,
>>> I'll give up on trying to catch him on the road to Damascus -
>>> he's beyond redemption.
>>> Glad to see that someone's rejected something he's written.
>>> Jim Hack's good, so I'm confident he won't be fooled.
>>> Cheers
>>> Phil
>>>
>>> At 17:28 07/01/2008, you wrote:
>>>> Dear Phil,
>>>>
>>>> More Christy stuff... The guy is just incredible...
>>>>
>>>> With best regards,
>>>>
>>>> Ben
>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> Benjamin D. Santer
>>>> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
>>>> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
>>>> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
>>>> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
>>>> Tel: (925) 422-2486
>>>> FAX: (925) 422-7675
>>>> email: santer1@llnl.gov
>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>> Message-ID: <47825AB8.5000608@llnl.gov>
>>>> Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2008 09:00:40 -0800
>>>> From: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>
>>>> Reply-To: santer1@llnl.gov
>>>> Organization: LLNL
>>>> User-Agent: Thunderbird 1.5.0.12 (X11/20070529)
>>>> MIME-Version: 1.0
>>>> To: "Hack, James J." <jhack@ornl.gov>
>>>> Subject: Re: John Christy's latest ideas
>>>> References:
>>>> <537C6C0940C6C143AA46A88946B854170B9FAF74@ORNLEXCHANGE.ornl.gov>
>>>> In-Reply-To:
>>>> <537C6C0940C6C143AA46A88946B854170B9FAF74@ORNLEXCHANGE.ornl.gov>
>>>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
>>>> Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
>>>>
>>>> Dear Jim,
>>>>
>>>> I'm well aware of this paper, and am currently preparing a reply
>>>> (together with many others who were involved in the first CCSP
>>>> report). To put it bluntly, the Douglass paper is a piece of
>>>> worthless garbage. It has serious statistical flaws. Christy should
>>>> be ashamed that he's a co-author on this. His letter to Dr. Strayer
>>>> is deplorable and offensive. For over a decade, Christy has
>>>> portrayed himself as the only guy who is smart enough to develop
>>>> climate-quality data records from MSU. Recently, he's also portrayed
>>>> himself as the only guy who's smart enough to develop
>>>> climate-quality data records from radiosonde data. And now he's the
>>>> only scientist who is capable of performing "hard-nosed",
>>>> independent assessments of climate model performance.
>>>>
>>>> John Christy has made a scientific career out of being wrong. He's
>>>> not even a third-rate scientist. I'd be happy to discuss Christy's
>>>> "unique ways of validating climate models" with you.
>>>>
>>>> With best regards,
>>>>
>>>> Ben
>>>> Hack, James J. wrote:
>>>>> Dear Ben,
>>>>>
>>>>> Happy New Year. Hope all is well. I was wondering if you're
>>>>> familiar with the attached paper? I thought that you had recently
>>>>> published something that concludes something quite different. Is
>>>>> that right? If yes, could you forward me a copy? And, any
>>>>> comments are also welcome.
>>>>> He's coming to ORNL next week to under the premise that he has some
>>>>> unique ways to validate climate models (this time with regard to
>>>>> the lower thermodynamic structure). I'd be happy to chat with you
>>>>> about this as well if you would like. I'm appending what I know to
>>>>> the bottom of this note.
>>>>>
>>>>> Best regards ...
>>>>>
>>>>> Jim
>>>>>
>>>>> James J. Hack Director, National Center for Computational Sciences
>>>>> Oak Ridge National Laboratory
>>>>> One Bethel Valley Road
>>>>> P.O. Box 2008, MS-6008
>>>>> Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6008
>>>>>
>>>>> email: jhack@ornl.gov <mailto:jhack@ornl.gov>
>>>>> voice: 865-574-6334
>>>>> fax: 865-241-9578
>>>>> cell: 865-206-9001
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> >> -----Original Message-----
>>>>>> >> From: John Christy [_mailto:john.christy@nsstc.uah.edu_]
>>>>>> >> Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2007 9:16 AM
>>>>>> >> To: Strayer, Michael
>>>>>> >> Cc: Salmon, Jeffrey
>>>>>> >> Subject: Climate Model Evaluation
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> Dr. Strayer:
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> Jeff Salmon is aware of a project we at UAHuntsville believe is
>>>>>> >> vital and that you may provide a way to see it accomplished.
>>>>>> As you
>>>>>> >> know, our nation's energy and climate change policies are being
>>>>>> >> driven by output from global climate models. However, there has
>>>>>> >> never been a true "red team" assessment of these model
>>>>>> projections
>>>>>> >> in the way other government programs are subjected to hard-nosed,
>>>>>> >> independent evaluations. To date, most of the "evaluation" of
>>>>>> these
>>>>>> >> models has been left in the hands of the climate modelers
>>>>>> >> themselves. This has the potential of biasing the entire process.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> It is often a climate modeler's claim (and promoted in IPCC
>>>>>> >> documents - see attached) that the models must be correct because
>>>>>> >> the global surface
>>>>>> >> temperature variations since 1850 are reproduced (somewhat) by
>>>>>> the
>>>>>> >> models when run in hindcast mode. However, this is not a
>>>>>> scientific
>>>>>> >> experiment for the simple reason that every climate modeler
>>>>>> saw the
>>>>>> >> answer ahead of time. It is terribly easy to get the right answer
>>>>>> >> for the wrong reason, especially if you already know the answer.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> A legitimate experiment is to test the models' output against
>>>>>> >> variables to which modelers did not have access ... a true blind
>>>>>> >> test of the models.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> I have proposed and have had rejected a model evaluation
>>>>>> project to
>>>>>> >> DOE based on the utilization of global datasets we build here at
>>>>>> >> UAH. We have published many of these datasets (most are
>>>>>> >> satellite-based) which document the complexity of the climate
>>>>>> >> system and which we think models should replicate in some way,
>>>>>> and
>>>>>> >> to aid in model development where shortcomings are found.
>>>>>> These are
>>>>>> >> datasets of quantities that modelers in general were not aware of
>>>>>> >> when doing model testing. We have performed
>>>>>> >> a few of these tests and have found models reveal serious
>>>>>> >> shortcomings in some of the most fundamental aspects of energy
>>>>>> >> distribution. We believe a rigorous test of climate models is in
>>>>>> >> order as the congress starts considering energy reduction
>>>>>> >> strategies which can have significant consequences on our
>>>>>> economy.
>>>>>> >> Below is an abstract of a retooled proposal I am working on.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> If you see a possible avenue for research along these lines,
>>>>>> please
>>>>>> >> let me know. Too, we have been considering some type of
>>>>>> partnership
>>>>>> >> with Oakridge since the facility is nearby, and this may be a way
>>>>>> >> to do that.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> John C.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> Understanding the vertical energy distribution of the Earth's
>>>>> atmosphere
>>>>>> >> and its expression in global climate model simulations
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> John R. Christy, P.I., University of Alabama in Huntsville
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> Abstract
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> Sets of independent observations indicate, unexpectedly, that the
>>>>>> >> warming of the tropical atmosphere since 1978 is proceeding at a
>>>>>> >> rate much less than that anticipated from climate model
>>>>>> simulations.
>>>>>> >> Specifically, while the surface has warmed, the lower troposphere
>>>>>> >> has experienced less warming. In contrast, all climate models we
>>>>>> >> and others have examined indicate the lower tropical atmosphere
>>>>>> >> should be warming at a rate 1.2 to 1.5 times greater than the
>>>>>> >> surface when forced with increasing greenhouse gases within the
>>>>>> >> context of other observed forcings (the so-called "negative lapse
>>>>>> >> rate feedback".) We propose to diagnose this curious phenomenon
>>>>>> >> with several satellite-based datasets to document its relation to
>>>>>> >> other climate variables. We shall do the same for climate model
>>>>>> >> output of the same simulated variables. This will
>>>>>> >> enable us to propose an integrated conceptual framework of the
>>>>>> >> phenomenon for further testing. Tied in with this research are
>>>>> potential
>>>>>> >> answers to fundamental questions such as the following: (1) In
>>>>>> >> response to increasing surface temperatures, is the lower
>>>>>> >> atmosphere reconfiguring the way heat energy is transported which
>>>>>> >> allows for an increasing amount of heat to more freely escape to
>>>>>> >> space? (2) Could there be a natural thermostatic effect in the
>>>>>> >> climate system which acts in a different way than parameterized
>>>>>> >> convective-adjustment schemes dependent upon current
>>>>>> assumptions of
>>>>>> >> heat deposition and retention? (3)
>>>>>> >> If observed atmospheric heat retention is considerably less than
>>>>>> >> model projections, what impact will lower retention rates have on
>>>>>> >> anticipated increases in surface temperatures in the 21st
>>>>>> century?
>>>>>> >>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> Benjamin D. Santer
>>>> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
>>>> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
>>>> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
>>>> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
>>>> Tel: (925) 422-2486
>>>> FAX: (925) 422-7675
>>>> email: santer1@llnl.gov
>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>> NR4 7TJ
>>> UK
>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> Benjamin D. Santer
>> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
>> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
>> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
>> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
>> Tel: (925) 422-2486
>> FAX: (925) 422-7675
>> email: santer1@llnl.gov
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>

--
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benjamin D. Santer
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
Tel: (925) 422-2486
FAX: (925) 422-7675
email: santer1@llnl.gov
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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