DECISION SUPPORT MODELS FOR

ASSET MANAGEMENT OF LOW VOLUME ROADS

Prof. A. VEERARAGAVAN
Professor of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
Chennai – 600 036.

and

MURALI KRISHNA
Graduate Student in Transportation Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
Chennai – 600 036.

Abstract

The pavement maintenance decisions are based on skimpy rules and rules of thumb. The
selection of the roads for maintenance is generally based on ‘‘worst first’ policy. The timing of
maintenance intervention and standards adopted for maintenance govern the service life of the
pavement. The rate of pavement deterioration depends on timing, choice of the type and quality
of construction of the maintenance treatment. In the present investigation, the periodical
performance data of typical low volume rural roads constructed under the rural road
development programmes in India are considered. Performance prediction models are
developed. The models are used to predict the performance during the design life. Different
maintenance interventions are considered at different conditions of the pavement. The effect of
timing of maintenance on the agency cost as well as vehicle operation costs have been quantified
and presented.

NEED FOR PAVEMENT PRESERVATION

As we enter the new millennium, the demands on our road network and available
transportation funding are greater than ever. These demands, combined with growing public
expectations for safety, quality and performance, require road infrastructure agencies to maintain
the highest level of service practical. To meet these demands, road agencies are redefining their
objectives, requiring them to focus on preservation and maintenance of road assets already
created rather than expanding the existing road network system. India has taken up several
ambitious road development programmes including the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana of
the Bharat Nirman programme. Several lakh kilometres of roads have already been constructed
and the performance of these roads varies from good to fair. These roads have created a sea of
change in the economy of the rural villages. The traffic on these roads has increased many folds.
The prediction of traffic in many roads was much lower than the present day traffic. The rural
roads have provided an all-weather connectivity to the villages. Consequently, the economy level

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increased many folds resulting in increased vehicle ownership. The road assets that have been
created at huge investment need to be preserved and maintained periodically. Unless the roads
are periodically maintained, the pavement will deteriorate fast and the cost of maintenance will
increase many folds. Rural roads have become a life line for the villages in India.

Pavement preservation is needed to enhance the pavement performance by using an

integrated, cost-effective set of practices to extend pavement life, improve safety and meet the
road user expectations. An effective pavement preservation program will address pavements
while they are still in good condition and before the onset of serious distresses. By applying a
cost-effective treatment at the right time, the pavement is restored almost to its original
condition. The cumulative effect of systematic, successive preservation treatments is to postpone
costly rehabilitation and reconstruction. During the life of a pavement, the cumulative discount
value of a series of pavement preservation treatments is substantially less than the discounted
value of more extensive, higher cost of reconstruction and generally more economical than the
cost of major rehabilitation. Additionally, performing a series of successive pavement
preservation treatments during the life of a pavement is less disruptive to uniform traffic flow
than the long closures normally associated with reconstruction projects and increases the agency
costs significantly.

CHALLENGE OF MAINTENANCE

Maintaining India’s present highway network to full maintenance standards will require
annual funding of about Rs.70 billion, three times the current level of expenditure. The economic
road user costs are 23 percent higher on roads in poor condition than on good roads and 55
percent higher, if the roads are in very poor condition. The quantifiable benefits accruing from
the improvements and better maintenance of road consists of savings in vehicle operating costs
and travel time, which will reduce overall transport costs. Though, the direct beneficiaries are
road users and transport operators, the benefits of transport cost savings will be passed on to end-
users. For every rupee spent on maintaining the road network, there are net benefits (NPV) in
excess of Rs.7/-. Indian road network at nearly 3.2 million km falls under one of the world’s
largest road networks. Out of this length, less than 1% of the roads are being developed under
various schemes by central and state governments. Considerable amount of manpower,
technology and expertise are being used for these roads at various levels from inception to
completion. According to World Bank, the loss in vehicle operation costs on account of poor
road maintenance in India is estimated to be about Rs. 20,000 crores per annum.

IMPORTANCE OF TIMELY MAINTENANCE

Often pavement maintenance decisions are based on skimpy rules and rules of thumb.
The selection of the roads for maintenance is generally based on the ‘worst first’ policy. The
functional condition parameters of the roads (viz. roughness, cracking and ravelling) are
generally not considered while deciding timing and choice of the maintenance treatment viz.,
type of the maintenance strategy as well as thickness of the treatment. The timing of maintenance
intervention and standards of the maintenance governs the service life of a pavement. The rate of
pavement deterioration depends on the timing, type and quality of the maintenance treatment. If
the maintenance is not carried out with due consideration to the structural and functional

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condition of the pavement section, the pavement may not offer the desired level of performance.
If the maintenance of the pavement is deferred by two to three years, the condition of the
pavement will further deteriorate causing discomfort to users and loss in terms of monetary
value. There will be substantial increase in agency cost due to pavement deterioration during the
deferred period due to the requirement of additional rehabilitation to achieve the desired level of
serviceability. It is reported that even construction of thicker overlays more than what is required
based on the structural requirements will result in lower economic benefits.

The roads that are already constructed and opened to traffic have started showing signs of
pre-mature failure and distresses due to the increased number of load repetitions as well as
environmental and construction quality effects. These roads require preventive maintenance
now. The preventive maintenance is a systematic process of applying a series of preventive
maintenance treatments over the life of the pavement to maintain a good condition. They extend
the life of the pavement and minimize life cycle costs without substantially increasing the
structural aspects. It is believed to result in lowering the agency cost, improved pavement
condition and increased road user satisfaction. Preventive maintenance is applying the right
treatment to the right pavement at the right time. The experience with pavement preventive
maintenance demonstrates that each rupee spent now is estimated to save upto six rupees in
future. An effective pavement preservation program encompasses a full range of preventive
maintenance techniques and strategies, such as crack sealing, fog seals, slurry seals, surface
dressing, thin overlays etc. A traditional rehabilitative approach allows the original pavement
section to deteriorate to fair to poor condition in terms of both ride quality and structural
condition. At this stage, structural damage occurs and the objective of the rehabilitation
treatment is to repair that damage and restore the pavement. Thus, the traditional approach is
reactive and can be costly and time consuming process, when compared to preventive
maintenance which is a pro-active and cheaper approach.

REVIEW OR EARLIER WORK

NCHRP report (2004) on ‘Optimal timing of preventive maintenance treatment applications’

describes the procedure to calculate the optimal timing scenario by considering benefit cost
values and effectiveness criteria. Hass and Hudson(1978) highlighted the importance of
pavement preservation on highways by considering extension of life of the pavement, delay in
rate of deterioration and enhanced safety of the road users. Sood and Sharma (1996) collected
performance data from existing pavement sections over a period of about six years for
expeditious development of pavement deterioration models. These models can be used to predict
the initiation and progression of cracking, pothole, rutting etc., on highway pavements
considering several influencing parameters like traffic, pavement strength, construction quality
etc. Reddy and Veeraragavan (1997) studied the structural performance of in-service flexible
pavements and developed predictive models for structural and functional condition deterioration
based on empirical modeling of performance data. Mechanistic-empirical models for rut depth,
crack area and unevenness of in-service flexible pavements have been developed based on
performance data collected over a period of ten years. The allowable traffic loads for critical
value of rut depth, crack area and unevenness based on deflection criteria were also developed.

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 Mamlouk et al (1998) reported that pavement preventive maintenance has been found to
be successful for low as well as high volume of roads. He emphasized that the selection of
preventive maintenance treatment should be based on the condition of the existing pavement,
traffic volume and` environmental conditions. Samuel Labi et al (2005) investigated the cost
effectiveness of preventive maintenance. The field data for validation was used from in service
state highway pavements in Indiana. The strategy formulated in the present study consisted of
various treatment types applied at different timings. The effectiveness of the maintenance is
defined as the increase in service life relative to a base case (do nothing strategy). The study
suggests that preventive maintenance cost effectiveness generally increases with increase in
preventive maintenance effort up to a certain maximum, after which it declines with increasing
effort. Shailendra Singh and Veeraragavan (2007) quantified the benefits of timely maintenance
on the highways. Priya et al (2008) studied the sensitivity of design parameters on optimal
pavement maintenance decisions at project level. However, the benefits of preventive
maintenance has not been studied and reported in India so far. Thus, there is an urgent need to
preserve the already constructed road pavements through timely maintenance interventions.

OBJECTIVES OF THE PRESENT STUDY

The objectives of the present study are as follows:

a) Development of models for the prediction of the performance of the rural roads
b) Study the effect of time of maintenance on the performance of the roads
c) Quantify penalties due to deferred maintenance on agency costs.
d) Quantify the cost- effectiveness of different maintenance strategies.

STUDY SECTIONS

The present study is taken up to predict the performance of typical low volume single-lane rural
roads constructed under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadaj Yojana programme .The pavement in
general has a composition of 200 mm granular sub-base over a prepared subgrade, 225 mm of
granular base course and 20 mm pre-mix carpet surface. The Modified Structural Number
(MSN) for the pavement section using the equation:

MSN=SN+3.51(log CBR)-0.85(log CBR)2 -1.43, using appropriate structural layer coefficients is

3.21. The traffic volumes on typical rural roads in Tamilnadu after the opening of traffic are as
follows:
Table 1 Classified Volume Counts on Various Rural Roads in 2008
Two-
Road District Auto Car Bus Truck
wheelers
Kanchipuram 242 0 15 8 4
Villupuram 138 1 11 5 6
Thoothukudi 205 0 57 6 3
Trichy 140 0 9 9 7
Madurai 159 1 50 5 7
Karur 216 2 13 6 3
Coimbatore 134 14 11 7 2

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Namakkal 137 1 4 4 8
Average 175 2 21 6 5
PERFORMANCE PREDICTION

A flexible pavement is a structure whose condition changes with passage of time due to the
combined effects of structural adequacy, volume, composition and loading characteristics of
traffic, environment and the maintenance inputs provided. The failure of a pavement structure is
not abrupt like collapse of any other structure. The failure occurs due to internal damage caused
by traffic loads and environmental effects over a period of time. The process of accumulation of
damage is called deterioration. It is very essential to predict the deterioration in terms of
distresses in order to estimate the remaining service life of the pavement which in turn is helpful
for suggesting appropriate maintenance interventions at defined trigger levels. The pavement
deterioration models were developed based on the performance data collected from selected
roads constructed under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana in Tamilnadu. The models
developed by the Central Road Research Institute were used to predict the progression of various
distresses of the pavement for which data were not available from the rural roads laid in
Tamilnadu. The analysis period considered in the present study is twenty years.

Deflection prediction

The structural performance of the pavement section is predicted by using deflection progression
models; the deflection prediction equation was developed is as follows:

Deflection progression equation is

Deft=0.006 Exp (iDef) +0.153 csa 0.317 +0.171 age [N=90; R2 =0.841; S.E=0.24]

where,

Deft is rebound deflection at time t, mm

iDef is initial rebound deflection, mm
csa is cumulative standard axles (million)
age is age of pavement from the time of construction, years

Roughness Prediction

The functional performance of the pavement section is predicted by using roughness progression
models. A roughness prediction equation was developed considering the traffic, age and initial
roughness of the pavement surface. The critical values of initial roughness for various types of
bituminous surfacing are as per IRC: SP: 16-2004. Roughness progression model is a function of
initial roughness, age and cumulative standard axle load repetitions (CSA).

IRIt = IRIo +0.838 Nt (0.224age)

[n=24, R2=0.77, S.E=0.313]
Where, IRIt : Roughness Index (m/km) at any time t
IRIo : Initial Roughness Index (m/km) at time t= 0

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 Nt : Cumulative standard axles (millions) at time, t
Age : Age of pavement at t (years)
Rutting Prediction

Rut depth progression was developed using the periodical pavement performance data
considering initial structural condition of the pavement and traffic load repetitions. The model is
as follows:

RDt = RDo+534.36 (iDEf.csa)0.855 + log csa

[n=36, R2=0.66, S.E=0.289]

Where,
RDo - initial rut depth, mm
iDef - initial rebound deflection, mm

Cracking Criteria

The crack in the bituminous surfacing occurs due to combined action of traffic loading and the
environment. The cracking initiation model by Sood et al, 1996 is as follows:

CSALYR
For PC Surfacing: AGECRIN=2.74EXP [-2.57 ]
MSN 2
[n=20, R2=0.45, SE=0.43]

Cracking progression model is given by:

CRt CSALYR 0.54

=5.41[ ] *SCRi 0.32
ti MSN
[n=124, R2=.25, SE=1.14]

Where, AGECRIN : Age of pavement at the time of cracking initiation (years)

CSALYR : Cumulative standard axles per year (millions)
MSN : Modified structural number

Where, MSN=3.28(DEF0)-0.23

CRt : Percentage change in Crack area over time (t) in years (%)
SCRi : Initial crack area (%)
ti : Time interval (years)

For the analysis purpose, the initial crack area is assumed as 2% of the whole area.

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Raveling Criteria

Raveling occurs either due to loss of fines/stone particles from the surfacing and/or due to loss of
adhesion /bonding between binder and aggregates. The general form of raveling initiation model
by Sood et al, 1996 is as follows:

AGERVIN=3.18 AXLEYR -0.138 * (CQ+1) -0.38

[n=26,R2=0.43, SE=0.38]

The model for ravelling progression is:

RVt
= 3.94 AXLEYR0.32 *SRVi 0.46
ti
[n=82, R2=0.28, SE=1.02]

Where , AGERVIN : Age of the pavement at the time of ravelling initiation

AXLEYR : No. of vehicle axle per year (million)
CQ : Construction quality (For NH=0, For SH=1)
RVt : Raveling at time t (%)
SRVi : Initial raveling (%)
ti : Time interval (years)
For the analysis purpose the initial raveling is assumed as 1% of the whole area.

ANALYSIS

For the 20 years analysis period, the progression of deflection, roughness, cracking, potholes and
raveling can be seen in the Figures 1,2,3,4 and 5. The initial roughness in terms of International
Roughness Index (IRI) of Pre-mix carpet is assumed to be 4m/km. For do-nothing strategy, the
maximum roughness value at the end of the analysis period is 11 m/km as can be seen in Fig 3.
Cracks will initiate in the pavement surface in 2011 and it reaches maximum value of 3 % by the
end of analysis period, as can be seen in Fig 4. Raveling is likely to initiate on the pavement in
2015 and it reaches maximum value of 4% at the end of the analysis period as can be seen in Fig
6. The maximum number of potholes on the pavement by the end of analysis period is only
2/km. Deflection, roughness, crack, pothole and raveling progression of the pavement in case of
do- nothing strategy is shown below.

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Fig 1 Deflection progression

Fig 2 Roughness Progression

Fig 3 Rutting progression

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 Fig 4 Cracking Progression

Fig 5 Raveling Progression

Maintenance Treatments At Different Trigger Levels

The following maintenance treatments are considered at different trigger levels.

Trigger Level Treatment

IRI = 6 m/km Single Coat Surface Dressing / 20 mm
Premixed Carpet / 20 mm Mix Seal Surfacing
IRI = 8 m/km 40 mm Semi-dense Bituminous Concrete
IRI = 10 m/km 50 mm Bituminous Macadam + 25 mm Semi-
dense Bituminous Concrete
Table 2 Initial Roughness Values (IRC: 16-2004)
Initial Roughness after
S.No Treatment Treatment
in m/km, IRI
1 Thick Overlay viz., (50 mm BM + 25 mm SDBC) 2.5
2 Semi-dense Bituminous Concrete 3.5
3 Surface dressing 4.5
4 Mix seal surfacing 4
5 Pre mix carpet 4

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 Table 3 Schedule of rates ( as per Schedule of Rates, Karnataka, 2008)
(1 US$ = Rs.45)
Treatment Cost/unit
Bituminous Concrete Rs. 7,200/cu.m
Bituminous Macadam Rs. 5,100/cu.m
Semi dense Bituminous Concrete Rs. 6,600/cu.m
Routine maintenance Rs. 15,0000/lane-km
Surface dressing Rs. 62/sq.m
Premix carpet Rs. 114/sq.m

By using initial roughness values of different treatments and unit costs, the analysis was
carried out to quantify the extra funds needed due to the delayed maintenance period. The
discounted agency costs needed in the analysis period of 20 years, for different treatments are
calculated by assuming discount rate as 12% and inflation rate as 5%.

Table 4 Year(s) of Maintenance Intervention

Year (s) of
Trigger value, IRI Treatment
application
6 Two coat Surface dressing 2015,2019,2023,2026
6 Premix Carpet 2015,2020,2025
8 40 mm Semi-dense Bituminous Concrete 2019,2028
50 mm Bituminous Macadam + 25 mm Semi -
10 2022
Bituminous Concrete

Table 5 Agency costs for Different Maintenance Alternatives

Trigger 6 IRI 6 IRI 8 IRI 10 IRI
Year 2015 2015 2019 2022
40 mm Semi- 50 mm Bituminous
Surface Pre-mix dense Macadam + 25 mm
Treatment
dressing carpet Bituminous Semi=dense Bituminous
Concrete Concrete
Discounted
agency costs, 4.5 6.5 8.1 9
Rs. lakhs/km

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 Table 6 Effect of Delayed Maintenance on Agency Costs

Discounted Extra cost

Year of agency costs, Delay time, needed,
Treatment maintenance lakhs/km years lakhs/km
Two Coat Surface
2015,2019,2023,2026 4.5 0 0
dressing
40mm Semi-dense
2019,2028 8.1 4 3.6
Bituminous Concrete
50 mm Bituminous
Macadam + 25 mm
2022 9 7 4.5
Semi-dense
Bituminous Concrete

From the above results, it can be seen that the agency cost increases due to the delayed
maintenance intervention. If preventive maintenance treatment (Surface dressing) is applied, the
agency costs needed is Rs.4.5 lakhs/lane-km, whereas if corrective maintenance treatment viz.,
50 mm Bituminous Macadam + 20 mm Bituminous Concrete is applied, the agency costs will be
as high as Rs. 9 lakhs/lane-km in 2022.

Effect of Delayed Maintenance on Vehicle Operation Cost

From Fig 7, it can be seen that, there is reduction in roughness value after the maintenance
intervention at IRI value of 6 m/km resulting in significant influence on the vehicle operation
costs (VOC). The total VOC at the end of analysis period for do-nothing strategy is Rs 40
lakhs/km whereas total VOC at the end of analysis period by considering timely maintenance is
Rs.33 lakhs/km, resulting in a savings of over Rs.7 lakhs/km during the analysis period.
Similarly VOC savings of Rs. 5 lakhs/km can be obtained due to effective maintenance at IRI
value of 8 m/km and VOC savings of only Rs. 2 lakhs/km can be obtained due to maintenance at
IRI value of 10 m/km.

Fig 7 Comparison of Roughness Progression for Do-nothing and SD@6IRI

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Fig 8 Comparison of Roughness Progression for Do-nothing and BM20+ SDBC25@8IRI

Fig 9 Comparison of Roughness Progression for Do-nothing and (BM50+AC20) @10 IRI
Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis was carried out to understand the effect of increase in unit rates on increase
in agency costs due to delay in maintenance. It is observed from Fig 10 that due to increase in
unit rate of different maintenance treatments from 0% to 20%, the extra agency cost increases
from Rs. 3.6 lakhs to Rs. 4.4 lakhs if the delay of maintenance intervention is four years. Similar
trends were found, if there is a delay in maintenance intervention.

Fig 10 Sensitivity Analysis

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CONCLUSIONS

1. The increased cost of maintenance to the agency due to delayed maintenance of four
years and seven years are Rs.3.6 lakhs/lane-km and Rs.7.0 lakhs/lane-km. The increased
cost of maintenance is due to deterioration of the pavement and costly maintenance
intervention strategies to be applied to the pavement later in the design life.
2. Timely maintenance can significantly reduce the agency cost and the road user cost.
3. The vehicle operation cost can be significantly higher, due to the delayed maintenance of
the pavement.
4. Substantial benefits can be obtained by adopting preventive maintenance strategy to all
the pavement sections when they are still in good condition.
5. There is an urgent need to take up research schemes to determine the optimal preventive
maintenance interventions for rural roads under varying traffic, climate and
environmental conditions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are grateful to Prof. Moses Santhakumar and Dr. Samson Mathew of
National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirapalli, (State Technical Agency for the Pradhan Mantri
Gram Sadak Yojana programme in Tamilnadu) for sharing the performance data of the rural
roads in Tamilnadu. The periodical performance data were used in the development of the
prediction models in the present study.

REFERENCES

1. Hass, R., and Hudson, W.R., (1978). Pavement Management System, Mc Graw Hill book
Company.
2. Mamlouk, M.S., and ZANIEWSKI, J.P., (1998). Pavement Preventive maintenance:
Description, Effectiveness, and Treatments Flexible pavement Rehabilitation and
Maintenance, ASTM STP 1348, American Society of Testing and Materials.
3. National Co-operative Highway Research Program Report. , (2004), Optimal Timing of
Preventive Maintenance Treatment Applications, Transportation research Board.
4. Priya, R, Srinivasan, K.K and Veeraragavan, A (2008), Sensitivity of Design Parameters
on Optimal Pavement Maintenance Decisions at the Project Level, Transportation
Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board No. 2084, National
Academies, Washington, pp 47-54..
5. Reddy, B.B., and Veeraragavan, A., (1997). Structural Performance of In Service
Flexible Pavements, Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, Vol.123-2, pp.156-
166.
6. Samuel Labi., Kumares Sinha.,(2005). Life Cycle Evaluation of Flexible Pavement
Preventive Maintenance, Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, No.10, Vol.31.
7. Shailendra Singh,Maj., and Veeraragavan, A., Preventive Maintenance: Cost-Effective
Technique to Preserve Indian Highways, Highway Research Bulletin 77, 2007.

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8. Sood, V.K., and Sharma, B.M., (1996). Development of Pavement Deterioration Models
for Indian Conditions, Indian Roads Congress Journal, Vol.57-3, pp481-528.

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