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Section A: Diplomatic Cable

Date: 13th April 2019


From: Russian Ambassador in Sudan
To: Russian Foreign Minister

1. Summary: On 11th April 2019 the President of Sudan Omar Al-Bashir was ousted by
Sudan’s military. The military disbanded parliament, suspended the constitution and
formed a military council for the transition period which spanned two years. The
Defence Minister Lieutenant General Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf instituted a 3-month state
of emergency in the country. The mass protests that started in December 2018 over
price hikes of various commodities have continued. The thousands of Sudanese
demonstrators who have been holding almost daily anti-Bashir protests rejected the
decision to set up a transitional military council to run the country for two years and
vowed to continue protesting until a civilian government is established. The loss of
Russia’s ally Omar Al-Bashir has created uncertainty to our relationship with Sudan
which has existed for many years. Therefore, created doubt on the future economic
development agenda that Russia has in Sudan. The coup has created a need for Russia
to consolidate its role in the transitioning of the country to a new regime.
2. Status for Russians in Sudan: There are currently 140 registered Russian citizens
residing in Sudan including other Russian travelers visiting Sudan. The coup does not
pose any threats to these Russian citizens. The embassy will continue to look out for
any threats that may cause harm to our citizen during this period.
3. Operation of the Embassy: Despite the declaration of a state of emergency, the
situation in the country remains calm and the embassy will continue operating
normally. This will provide the Russian citizens residing in Sudan full access in case of
an emergency.
The embassy remaining open during these difficult times for Sudan will change the
view of the Sudanese people by outlining that the Russian government will always
support and remain loyal to Sudan no matter the situation. In addition, the Russian
embassy will be the only foreign embassy operational as the U.S.A and China have
already closed their embassies. Besides, all the parties involved need a point of contact
for various future directives and collaborations.
4. Russian Economic Agenda Status: The proposed settling of debts owed to Russia by
Sudan through the provision of benefits that allow Russian companies to access gas, oil
and diamonds still stands, until the new government is installed. These will be
renegotiated if the new regime request to do so.
The investment the Russian Environmental Minister Mr. Dmitry Kobylkin was
considering in the construction of an oil refinery in Sudan through Russia’s Gazprom
bank can be put on hold until the new regime is installed and the economic environment
is more stable.
The mining of the gold reserves that was awarded to a Kremlin company by Bashir will
still continue unless the military or the to be installed new regime has issues. For now
the operation will be normal and considered business as usual.
5. Military Base Agenda: Russia’s agenda for a military base through the accessing of the
Red Sea for the purpose of the base competing with the U.S.A and China bases in
Djibouti still remains. Sudan and Eritrea still remain viable options in the region.
The agreement between Russia and Sudan for the construction of a base allowing naval
vessels to dock at each other’s ports still remains. The head of the transition military
has assured my office that the agreement still stands and my proof to be beneficial for
the military.
6. Russia’s Position on the Transition Government: During this process of transition our
government must remain impartial but provide covert support to all the aggrieved
parties in order to secure a lasting relation in case of any eventualities.
The military requested for Russia’s financial and technical support during the planned
transition. They are yet to invite my office for talks as soon as the plan for the transition
is agreed upon among all the stake holders. This is a positive sign for a future
relationship with Sudan as a country.
7. Conclusion: The relation of Russia and Sudan still remain strong, though uncertainty
still exists; all the parties involved have given my office assurance of a mutual
relationship after the situation stabilizes. The Sudanese authorities and stakeholders
have given an assurance that despite the change of power in Sudan the nature of
bilateral ties between the two countries will remain unchanged based on the long
standing traditions of friendship.
Section B: Themes for Blogging

B.1. Evolution of Diplomacy:

The Single Most Significant historical Change in nature of Diplomacy

Diplomacy has been simplified by Atkinson in his article on the evolution of diplomacy by
outlining that “Traditionally (and especially since the Renaissance), diplomacy has been
conducted by ambassadors and consuls, professional diplomats who function as resident
agents of their respective governments in foreign states. Since the early 19th century, the
leaders and foreign ministers of the major powers have increasingly opted to conduct direct
diplomacy through congresses, conferences, and summits, in addition to dispatching
permanent representatives to act on their behalf.”(2014)

The single most significant historical change in the nature of diplomacy has been the
technological development and advancement. The introduction of technology has changed
the nature of diplomacy completely. The technology has changed the responsibility of
diplomats significantly. Technology has indeed facilitated the direct communication among
governments and other national bodies that are not of a government nature.

The role and duties of diplomats have been transformed by technology in so many different
ways. Prior to technology, diplomats would attend various ceremonies, act as a means of
communication to the leaders and officials of the host country, conducting negotiations on
behalf of their governments and most of all make decision when need arises, but all this has
changed to pave way for technological messaging. The functionalities of a diplomat such has
information dispatch have lost its value to the promotion of direct communication with
relevant official making the position lose its importance. The position of a diplomat considers
being held accountable by the people and through Diplomatic forums more important than
that of convincing a number of people to agree with their policy and philosophy.

Governments in this modern age prefer or recognise political diplomacy more than the
diplomats. The heads of governments have created informal relationships that facilitate the
negotiations, private meeting sessions and creation of treaties. These relationships enhance
direct communication among leaders through the use of technology and do not require the
heads of states to travel long distances to discuss or depend on the diplomats. This does not
however, render the position of the diplomat redundant. The importance of a diplomat cannot
be over emphasised as technology has also made their work easier.

The advancement of technology has given birth to enhanced access to information and made
the exchange of information among countries easier. The digital age has made the world
smaller in that the complexity of distance has been bridged through the use of internet and
satellites in various modes of communication. Communication mediums such as television
and radios have influenced the public view towards diplomats and made the responsibility of
a diplomat a delicate undertaking.

The internet has also made information gathering task of diplomats easy as information is
readily available via technology and public opinion. Public Opinion can be easily accessed
via social media platforms. This is a very important evolutionary change in diplomatic
service. It has been noted that some diplomats have been recalled due to public outcry via
social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. Petitions have also been signed globally
through the use of these information Communication technological platforms.
B.2 Embassies and /or Foreign Ministries:

The Importance and Decline of Diplomatic Missions

The relevancy and importance of embassies and/or Foreign Ministries has come into question
in recent past. The 21st century has brought a change in the manner nations exercise
diplomacy. The traditional form in which embassy exist has been a question of relevancy in
relation to the rise of technological communication, increase in national security threats and
prevalence of scarce resources.

More than half of the developed nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) have reduced their diplomatic footprint over the last decade, according
to the Lowy Institute, who constructed the Global Diplomacy Index, which charts almost
6,000 diplomatic posts across nearly 660 cities around the world. As government budgets
shrink, embassies and diplomats seem more like expensive luxuries than political assets. It
doesn’t help, of course, that diplomats are stereotyped as overpaid and ineffectual cocktail-
circuit regulars (Oliver, 2016).

Due to technological advancements and informal relationships created by leaders of nations ,


government diplomats, embassies and Foreign Ministries are being seen to be slow in
information delivery as they are unable to compete with the fast pace of media reporting.

Despite the above explained challenges and pitfalls, embassies and foreign Ministries are
important in the diplomatic relationships of countries as they play a critical role in
negotiations and bargain for their countries agenda. The following are among the importance
of having an embassies and/ or foreign ministries even though the way they are used has
changed in recent years.
Below is the Embassy of Australia in London.

The physical presence of an embassy provides an advantage to Australia in that Australians


can physically walk in to the embassy for any concerns and queries they have. This makes
citizens of the country feel at home even when away from home. Intelligence in this modern
age is obtained from a variety of sources but the eyes and ears on the ground in form of an
embassy are very valued and cannot be underestimated.

Due to their physical presence, embassies


are a source of invaluable information on
planning international visits by various
leaders of governments. It is very
important for embassy staff to know their
role in planning for heads of states visits
and ensuring that the visit is successful.
Although some staff has complained about their role as ‘Thomas Cook’, others have
appreciated this great service to their country. The Picture above shows President Donald
Trump visiting troops in Iraq. This basically emphasises the point of Foreign ministry and / or
embassies presence.
Embassies play a vital role in giving policy advice. This is mainly done in a number of ways
that include national interest and policy development agenda for the home based Ministries.
Ambassadors have a clear picture of the interest of their country therefore; they will negotiate
or push forward the agenda of interest of their country. In terms of national Development
agenda, the embassy will focus on bringing development to their country through lobbying of
sustainable investments that are of developmental nature for their country. They provide
policy direction in terms of foreign investments that their country wants to make. This is by
far one of the most important roles of an embassy (Smith, 2016).

The above picture shows Rwanda and South Korea signing a policy agreement to promote
electronic-Health.

It is therefore, important that embassies should be the driving force in promoting policy
direction and investments for their country. There is need to reduce the number of staff at
embassies and embrace the use of technology to reduce on financial expenditure.
B.3. Multilateral Negotiation:

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership


(CPTPP)

This is a free trade agreement between Canada and other 10 countries of the Asia –Pacific
region. The 10 countries of the Asia –Pacific region are Brunei, Australia, Japan, Mexico,
Malaysia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Vietnam and Singapore. This agreement once
implemented will form a trade partnership representing 495 Million consumers and 13.5% of
global GDP. This agreement provides Canada preferential access to Asian and Latin America
key markets.

Canada, Japan, Australia, Mexico, Singapore and New Zealand were among the first six
nations to ratify the CPTPP on 30th December, 2018. Vietnam later joined on the 14th of
January, 2019.

Canada negotiated the outcomes of the CPTPP based on the original Trans-Pacific
Partnership that included the United States of America. The economic gains projected in the
CPTPP are projected to be in the same manner the USA had enjoyed before it pulled out of
the agreement.

The CPTPP agreements and its members is one of the world’s largest trading areas
amounting to almost 13. 5% of Global GDP (Based on the 2017 Merchandise trade data).
This is Canada’s third largest trading partnership agreement. The withdraw of the USA from
the TPP on the 30th of January ,2017 gave Canada significant benefits from the newly agreed
CPTPP as compared to the previous TPP because of the following two reasons.

Firstly in the absence of USA competition, Canada is expected to benefit through a better
market access to CTPP member countries in comparison to other U.S.A competitors. This
will allow Canada exporters to capture a larger market share in the member countries.

Secondly, the CPTPP gives Canada preferential access to the U.S.A markets established
under NAFTA unlike the TPP.This would not have been possible if the states liberalised its
trade with other TPP countries thus eroding the degree of preference accorded to Canada
under the NAFTA. This would have resulted in Canada’s exports to the U.S being displaced
hence significantly impacting on Canada as the U.S market is huge in size and very
important.

The CPTPP negotiations were based on the simulation with a dynamic computable general
equilibrium (CGE) Model of Global trade. The structure of Global Trade Analysis Project
model is developed and supported by the Purdue University (Global Trade Analysis Project).

The post-liberalization scenario models the impact of the CPTPP on Canada and the other
countries, as well as on non-CPTPP countries. Therefore, the net effect of the CPTPP can be
quantified as the difference between the baseline and post-liberalization scenario expressed in
terms of changes in GDP, exports and imports. This approach ensures that all other
macroeconomic forces affecting the economy, such as macroeconomic fluctuations,
employment changes, exchange rate shifts and technological developments stay the same for
both the baseline and post-liberalization scenarios, thus isolating the effects of the CPTPP
(Global Trade Analysis Project).

The CPTPP tariff commitments compromise more than 100,000 tariff lines and more than
200 pages of tariff rate quota (TRQs) Commitments for agricultural products. The GTAP
model incorporates both of the above.

Canada has overall lower levels of tariff protection than most of its CPTPP partner countries
(see Figure 2). Hence, holding other conditions constant, liberalization under the CPTPP
would be expected to provide a net advantage for Canada.
The economic analysis conducted by the Office of the Chief Economist at Global Affairs
Canada concludes that the CPTPP would generate long-term economic gains for Canada
totalling $4.2 billion. The gains are driven by increases in goods and services exports, and
investment.

The increases in exports are driven primarily by new preferential access for Canadian
businesses to the markets in which Canada does not already have an FTA, such as Japan,
Vietnam, Malaysia and Australia. The gains for Canada cover a broad range of sectors across
the Canadian economy, including some agricultural products such as pork and beef, wood
products, machinery and equipment, and transportation equipment. The impacts on the
automotive sector are slight, with a small increase in output and exports (Global Trade
Analysis Project).

The gains under the CPTPP are greater than the $3.4 billion gains expected under the TPP.
This is attributed to a greater market access negotiated by Canada for Canadian businesses to
CPTPP member countries.
B.4. Dimension of New Diplomacy:

New Technology – Internet World


The internet is a means through which information communication is conducted through
either exchange or storage. The internet makes the already existing information available by
bringing it together and easily assessable. It facilitates individual to individual or group
communication and global publication. The internet should not be confused with the content
being accessed and exchanged through the World Wide Web or the transmission made by
organizations through established networks (Friedman, 2005).

Thomas Friedman argues that “the Internet has played a crucial role in levelling the playing
field across the globe, enabling anyone, anywhere, to have access to the same information, to
connect to and do business direct with each other. This enables an ever more efficient
international division of labour to take account of the comparative advantage of different
markets. This makes the world, in his term, increasingly flat. It creates tremendous economic
opportunities. But it also has a dark side, illustrated by its use for fraud, pornography and
terrorism. The Internet is a vehicle in which eBay and Al Qaeda are fellow travelers”
(Friedman, 2005).

The great debate of the internet in relation to diplomacy and international or foreign relations
is based upon the following essential effects.

The first essential effect is that the internet has the power to amplify and multiply the
participation of the voiceless and interested parties in decision making of international policy
or matters of governance. This results in huge complications for diplomacy as it minimizes
national control in the process of decision making.

The internet has enabled developing countries like Ghana consider giving voting power to the
wealthy and educated expatriates abroad. It facilitated the French president Sarkozy to
influence the UK community during his Presidential campaign, through his personal website.

A recent study by He and Murphy (2007) has demonstrated the “importance of the internet
through the web in enabling NGOs to challenge the liberal basis of WTO agreements and
bring the concept of global social contracts into play. They used it in three ways, firstly as a
means of advocacy on their own websites, targeting and mobilizing their supporters and those
interested in the issues (e.g. through Google searches). Secondly as a means of coordinating
amongst themselves, both in the message they were giving and the action to be taken; and
finally as a way of exerting pressure on the state actors at the negotiating table.”
The study concluded by showing that through internet advocacy the NGOs were able to have
their views heard, by being included in the Doha round of negotiations.

Richard Grant, a New Zealand diplomat, describes the process as the “democratisation of
diplomacy”: “Diplomacy has become democratized. The technology allows more people to
play, increases the size of the playing field by an almost exponential amount, and it changes
the rules every day.” (Grant, 2004)

The second essential impact of the internet on diplomacy is that it increases the speed and
frees the distribution of information, whether in an accurate form or not. This though does not
eliminate the various issues of how information is handled and the consequence thereof on
diplomacy and international relations.

Since the internet is fast and almost instantaneous, The Turkish candidate for presidency
Abdullah Gul had withdrawn from the race in April 2007 and within hours the military
posted a communication statement on their website pronouncing its role as the defender of
the state of Turkey.

The importance of the internet was evident, when Tony Blair immediately posted a
congratulatory message in French on his YouTube site, when the French presidential election
was won by Nicholas Sarkozy in May 2007.

The third impact is that it enables fast delivery of diplomatic service at a lower cost as
compared to traditional or old means of delivering diplomatic services to the citizenry of their
country. Internet is a cheaper way of reaching out to the globe through technological
mediums.

The above clearly show that the internet has played a critical role in the evolution of
diplomacy. It is a factor that cannot be ignored in international relation, but embraced and
treated with caution as it can be a means of destruction. A good example is the leaked
Diplomatic cable written by the UK ambassador in the United States which described the
U.S.A president as foolish. This has been of great debate recently and has led to the
resignation of the Diplomat (CNN Website).
B.5. Environmental Diplomacy

Role of NGO Involvement in Negotiations: Convention on International


Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)

TRAFFIC is a Non-Governmental Organization that plays an essential role in environmental


governance. It was established through the wildlife monitoring network for the 1975
Convention on International Trade in endangered species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES).

TRAFFIC is basically an established partnership between World Wide Fund (WWF) for
nature and the World Conservation Union (IUCN). This partnership was established in to
assist the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora
in implementing the provisions of the Convention. This Agreement covers over 30,000
species of animals and plants. It has been endorsed by over 150 countries worldwide (Rosser,
Haywood and Harris, 2001).

This is a message
crafted by TRAFFIC
in the fight against
poaching of Elephants
for their ivory.

The variety of endangered species of animals and plants traded under CITES covers a range
of exotic or luxurious pets to medicinal herbs, and this needs a level of international
participation, to provide on the ground coordination that is otherwise difficult for single
inter-governmental Institutions (Wijnstekers, 2001). TRAFFIC is an important element in
the implementation of the international convention.
TRAFFIC is one of the world’s biggest wildlife trades monitoring organization with about 22
offices in eight regional programmes. The NGOs in this partnership mostly use their own
resources to fund various activities under this programme (TRAFFIC, 2001). The members
are always lobbying governments and decision makers to protect the endangered plants and
animals so as to conserve the environment. They collaborate with the private sector and
governments to ensure incentive programmes are developed to encourage sustainable trade.

TRAFFIC involvement in the global environmental diplomacy and governance has taken a
variety of forms such as the following.
a) It provides expert analysis and advise to the various international governments and
leaders. This in turn facilitates negotiations by putting on the table valuable ideas
from outside normal government channels for politicians to grasp and use in making
decisions.
b) It provides governments with intellectual competition by providing them with high
analytical and technical capacity to address emergency issues that normal government
channels and officials cannot address quickly.
c) It has collected public opinion and created influence for a movement against the
trafficking of the big five animals in Africa. These campaigns have influenced
government to fund the movement and participate in the protection of the endangered
animals and plants such as Africa’s finest trees which are cut and exported to china in
huge amounts.
d) Not all people are represented well in policy making. TRAFFIC represents the
voiceless in policy making by making sure that their point of view is heard by the
governments or nations.
e) Most national leaders or government request TRAFFIC to educate its officials on a
number of technical matters concerning the environment. It provides services to
government in form of offering technical expertise in line with the international
convention (CITES) provisions.
f) It engages in monitoring and assessing of international agreements negotiations
efforts and the compliance of governments.
g) It provides the governments or member states of CITES with the information critical
for decision making, quality enhancement and legitimacy of various policy decisions.
This clearly shows that Non-Governmental Organization involvement in matters of
environmental diplomacy is critical to the success of negotiations and agreements. They
enhance global environmental governance.
Section C: Comparative Analysis of Twitter Usage

This is an account of the comparative usage of Twitter by the embassy of Australia in the
United States of America and the United States consulate in Sydney Australia. The two
countries share a historical and strong relationship. Both countries have frequent visits from
citizens. The level of Twitter usage is depicted by the images below.

The United States of America Consulate in Sydney tweets far much more than embassy of
Australia in the U.S.A as can be noted from the 12,800 tweets to 4,429 tweets respectively.
There is more than 200% usage by the consulate as compared to the embassy.

The embassy and consulate mostly tweet about the relationship they share and the various
benefits derived from the relationship. The tweets below shows two Air force personnel from
Both countries
sharing a light
moment after an air
force drill. This
clearly shows the
relationship the two
countries share and
how they value their
relationship. It entails
sharing of skills and
knowledge on air
power. It is a symbol of mutual collaboration between the two countries.

The above image and tweet clearly demonstrates the relationship the two heads of states
share. The caption clearly spells out the strong bond the two countries share.
The two countries have gone further to share
technological advances and advancement
towards exploration of the moon. This is joint
collaboration in resources and technological
knowledge and skills to ensure that the
exploration of space is a success. The
collaboration of the two countries cannot be
over emphasised in various sectors of national
development

Educational and cultural exchange is also part of the common tweets the two countries
normally share. The tweet below shows the First Aussie to be appointed teen Advisor for the
United Nations and participating in a leadership summit in Washington DC in the United
States of America. A clear indication of expertise collaboration and sharing of knowledge by
the two countries.
The embassies are normally followed by various citizens, the public, tourist and government
departments that have interest in the operations of the embassy. The embassy normally
retweets to various concerns, compliments and questions. It is always important to interact
with the followers in order to have a successful feedback mechanism with the followers. The
embassies also follow government departments, officials, leaders, policy makers and the
general media. This is done in order to have quick access to various types of information and
updates.
Most embassies use twitter to express government policies, national achievements and
agenda. They use Twitter to share information to the public and follower. This in turn allows
the embassies to network with the general public. During networking they find themselves
interacting with non-state actors. The interaction with non-state actors is normally done in an
informal relaxed manner.
Section D: Reflection on Bilateral Negotiation Simulation

The Bilateral negotiation between Utopia and Newland presented a good simulation that
brought out several factors and learning points. The use of English language as the official
means of communication reduced chances of uncertainty and enabled the two parties to
understand each other without language barriers. This is the basic principle that facilitates
successful negotiations as the parties involved are able to communicate clearly and
understand each other.

The results of the simulation were satisfying to both parties and this is what Fisher and Ury
referred to as a win – win paradigm. The results can mainly be attributed to the following
factors or element.

The two parties separated themselves from the issues at hand by ensuring that their emotional
feelings did not get in the way of the negotiation. This was mainly so because the two parties
of Utopia and Newland viewed each other as partners and not adversaries in the development
process of their countries. The parties created objective proposals and reasoning that appealed
to both of them and facilitated the agreement.

The two parties hard a clear understanding of each of their particular interest. Utopia was
interested in making investments that will bring about financial security for its country while
Newland was interested in sustainable development that would empower its people and
economy at large. This mutual understanding of interest led to a successful negotiation of
each other’s interests and needs (Fisher & Ury, 2012).

The parties concentrated more on mutual gain based on interests than looking at issues in a
win- lose paradigm. This ensured that the parties concentrated on evaluating the various
proposals on the table in the hope of finding the solution to the matter at hand. Newland
presented its concern on the time period for the visa with valid reasoning while Utopia
delegation listened and rationally analysed. The parties debated and later come to an
agreement. This clearly showed focus on interest and when the position differed the parties
concentrated on areas that could be made compatible or even complementary (Fisher & Ury,
2012)
The structure of the negotiation made it possible for the parties to reach an agreement in a
more professional manner. The parties created a structure in such a way that it proved to be
beneficial at the end of the process. The parties selected heads for each negotiation team that
acted as a supervisor for the other sub groups which were created to handle a particular
matter on the negotiation agenda. These sub groups debated and agreed on a particular
mutual position of interest and finally the full house heard what was agreed. The full house
either seconded the proposals or further discussed them to reach a final position. This clearly
showed the importance of the negotiation structure in the process of negotiation.

The factors mentioned above had an important role to play in making the negotiations
successful and satisfying to all the parties involved.
BIBLIOGRAPHY (Sorted by Sections):

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Moscow Times (2019) Russia not Under Threat in Sudan Following Military Coup Embassy
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Australian embassy in USA (2019) Tweets, on Australian embassy twitter account, accessed
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https://twitter.com/ausintheus?lang=en

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https://twitter.com/usaembassyinoz?lang=en

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CPTPP website (2019), The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
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https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu

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