Fifth Generation Warfare in Pakistan

Fifth generation warfare emanates out of frustration, due to deep seated feelings of political and
economic deprivation

Raashid Wali Janjua

MARCH 19, 2018
Warfare has evolved far beyond the first generation; when it was all about set pieces of lines and
columns of armed soldiers. Today, this favourite past time of mankind is waged by frustrated
non-state warriors, directing their rage against visible symbols of oppression and opulence,
drawing visceral as well as vicarious pleasure out of their violence. Third generation warfare,
which was waged between industrial age armies over land and resources was replaced by fourth
generation warfare, waged by non-state actors and asymmetric warriors employing terrorism as a
tool to achieve their political objectives. Fifth generation warfare is an interesting development,
where non-state warriors fight nation states out of sheer frustration without clear political
objectives. According to a US Army Major Shannon Beebe this kind of warfare would be
motivated by frustration than any other material or ideological objective. US Marine Corps Lt
Colonel Stanton writes in Marine Corps Gazette that the fifth generation warfare is most likely to
be prosecuted in “enclaves of deprivation” where the vortex of violence threatens peace and
order.

Some of the areas mapped by these prophets of fifth generation warfare for future conflicts
include Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (IS), and other
ideological warriors provide the ideological anchors for the impromptu violence by these fifth
generation warriors. Poverty, economic deprivation, and political injustices breed fifth
generation warriors, whose hatred emanates out of a feeling of hopelessness and envy of the
more affluent segments of humanity. The islands of affluence surrounded by a sea of destitution
will not remain secure in their sanitized sanctums, enjoying a life of luxury and order. The
frustration of the poor, hungry, and desperate masses will soon spill over into these bastions of
stability, a reality more obvious today than before in the shape of illegal immigration, crime, and
violence by the denizens of deprived states. According to a UN Human Development Report, 1.8
percent of the global population owns 86 percent of the overall global wealth.As per the 2013
Oxfam International Report, the richest one percent own 48 percent of the global wealth. The
world is divided iniquitously into two groups. The first group comprises countries like the United
States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Australia and Canada, which have13
percent of the world population and are appropriating 45 percent of the world’s income, based on
Purchasing Power Parity, while the second group that comprises 42 percent of the world
population, including countries like India, Indonesia, and even China only possess nine percent.

While the world is a bigger template, the same income inequalities prevail within nations as well.
The same spectre of relative deprivation with attendant risks stalks countries like Pakistan, where
the global and the local risks coalesce into a lethal cocktail of social, economic, and political
deprivations fuelling intra-state conflicts. The characteristics of fifth generation warfare would
be the sudden and inexplicable eruption of violence against the visible symbols of state strength
such as law enforcing agencies, communication infrastructure, public offices, banking sources,
and even the richer segments private property. Fifth generation warfare emanates out of
frustration, due to deep seated feelings of political and economic deprivation. The catalyst to
violence could be foreign invasions, state oppression, and political injustices. The rise of the
local claimants to spiritual and temporal power challenging state writ through repudiation of the
state’s political order like Mullah Fazlullah in the past is an example of such catalysts. When a
state fails to establish order through effective governance, and also fails to provide economic
justice, fifth generation warfare is foisted upon it by the deprived classes.

Pakistan is already in the throes of this phenomenon, internally generated and externally abetted.
Like the resource curse of countries like Angola and Congo, Pakistan’s geographical location is a
curse. Instead of yielding economic dividends it has caused constant meddling by global powers
in its internal affairs. Faced with such constant supply of war fuel, the soft state model of
governance by an illiberal democracy is a sure recipe of chaos and disorder. When democratic
traditions do not seep into institutions like the legislature, executive, and judiciary the electoral
democracy degenerates into a plutocracy where people get marginalized. Without inclusive and
pluralistic governance with real political power devolved down to the local government level, the
democratic project yields nothing but politics of patronage and pelf in the service of a predatory
elite. The enclaves of poverty and deprivation soon develop into cesspools of violent resistance
against the perceived symbols of state oppression. Foreign elements fish freely in these turbid
waters in pursuit of their strategic objectives, while the state continually withers away.

While CPEC and other regional alliances may offer a ray of hope,the fifth generation wars
imposed upon Pakistan by forces inimical to the above cannot be won through the present
lackadaisical approach. This war can only be won through a steely national resolve, yoking
military as well as civil components of the national security strategy. The national security
strategy of Pakistan must accord equal importance to military and non-military components, with
the military component targeting visible threats through kinetic means and the non-military
component targeting the underlying causes of frustration and violence through non-kinetic
means. National Action Plan (NAP), which was a precipitate charter of Pakistan’s anti-terrorism
resolve has not been followed with the needed urgency and resolve. A holistic policy should
address the underlying causes of violence rather than pruning the leaves and leaving roots
untouched. It is time the state understood that the causes of violence could only be removed
through improvement in human security.

In order to counter fifth generation threats, one must identify them first. The threats not only
emanate from religious extremism, but also from political and economic deprivation amongst the
ethnic communities in Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and even in Sindh and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The lack of development, poor access to health and education, and joblessness are
generating frustrations that boil over into violent state defiance. The MQM, under Altaf Hussain
and the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) under Allah Nazar Baloch were both culpable of violence
rooted in this politico-economic deprivation. The state thus has to gird its lions to address the
economic and political injustices of all deprived communities through genuine political reforms
that empower people at the local level. Infrastructural developments in communications, water
supply,health, and education with focus on poverty alleviation should be the key planks of our
national security strategy. Zero tolerance for extremism and exploitation of people in the name of
religion or ethnic particularism should be another key plank of the strategy. Reform of
antediluvian madrassah syllabi and their registration along with control of funding should be
another bull that the state has to take by the horns.

It is time the state called the bluff of the clerics exploiting the faith of gullible people to further
their personal agendas. The state needs to wrest back the control of the mosques from the clerics.
If in Turkey, Malaysia, and UAE the mosques and Friday sermons could be regulated, why can’t
the same be done here? If we do not address the root causes and keep baulking from genuine
reforms, there is no hope. The fires of the fifth generation war lit by our internal contradictions
and external vulnerabilities can only be doused through a bold and multi-dimensional national
security strategy, according due weightage to military and non-military components sans which
our CPEC dream willremain just a dream.