drivers

urbanisation

of change
S
T
urbanisation
Ec
En
P

2.0
© Text: the authors

urbanisation
© Images: the authors

Edition
Chris Luebkeman
Arup Fellow and Director
Global Foresight + Research + Innovation
Project Manager
Josef Hargrave S
Editor
William Newton T
Graphic design Ec
Mark Pearsall, Alingo Loh
Research
En
Jonathan Broderick, Stephanie Schemel,
Anna Pichugina, William Newton P
Image Procurement
Arya Arabshahi
Printing and packaging
1st-Packaging, printed in 2018
 growth

c John
urbanisation

how big is too big?

social

According to a 2009 masterplan, the built-up area of Zhengzhou, China was

expected to expand from 219km2 to 400km2 by 2020. By 2015 the city had
already exceeded 600km2. —NYU (2016)
growth 7

urbanisation
Oceania
6 Northern America
Urban growth is the expansion of cities and city

Urban population (billions)

Africa
5
populations. Around 4bn people, or 54% of the Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe
world’s population, live in urban areas. According 4
Asia
to United Nations estimates the number of urban 3
residents will increase by 2.5bn by 2050, reaching
2
66% of the global population. Urban population
growth is unevenly distributed, with the fastest 1

growth rates found in the developing world, led by

social
0
Africa and Asia (Fig 1). Between 1995 and 2015, for

0
0
5
0
5

5
0
5
0
5
0
5

5
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
197

201
195
195
196
196

197
198
198
199
199
200
200

201
202
202
203
203
204
204
205
instance, the urban population in Africa grew eleven
Years
times more quickly than that in Europe.
Fig 1: Urban population by major area, 1950-2050
[UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014]
Cities occupy an ever larger land area; urban
expansion is projected to consume up to 35Mha 100
of cropland by 2030, 2.4% of the available global 90
Megacities of 10
total. Overlapping urban areas are increasingly 80 million or more
Large cities of 5 to
70
creating ‘megacities’ of 10m or more inhabitants

Percentage (%)
10 million
60 Medium-sized cities
(Fig 2) whose scale presents challenges for service 50
of 1 to 5 million
Cities of 500,000 to
provision, policing and commercial logistics. By 40 1 million

2030, it is projected that 41 global megacities will 30 Cities of 300,000 to

500,000
house 14% of the world’s population. 20 Urban areas with
fewer than 300,000
10
0
1970 1990 2014 2030
Year
Fig 2: Distribution of the world’s urban population by
size class of urban settlement and number of
cities, 1970, 1990, 2014, and 2030
[UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014] 01
 opportunity

c Michael Duxbury
urbanisation

is city living good for you?

social

80% of global GDP is generated in cities — Manila, for example, provides

47% of the country’s GDP while housing 12% of the population; in Kinshasa,
this percentage reaches 85% of GDP while housing 13% of the population.
—United Nations (2016)
opportunity

urbanisation
Percentage of population living in poverty
100
Opportunity is synonymous with city life; as 90
powerhouses of the global economy, cities hold the 80
70
potential to improve the economic and personal 60
well-being of residents at rates impossible in rural 50
40
areas. Urbanisation correlates with reduced national 30
r = -0.5506

poverty (Fig 1); both urbanisation and migration 20

to cities are on the rise. Rural residents are drawn 10
0
to urban centers by the lure of financial and social 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

social
opportunities (pull factors) as well as the prospect of Level of urbanisation (%)
escaping potential natural disasters, declining rural Fig 1: Urbanisation and poverty
economies, and poor rural healthcare (push factors). [World Bank, 2016]

Urban opportunity is unique at the institutional and Investment shortfall

national scale as well. To take just one example, 60
Telecoms
global population growth will drive an expansion in
50
investable real estate projected at 50% per decade,
Water
much of it in emerging urban markets. In order 40
to take full advantage of this and other structural Power
30
opportunities provided by cities, developing
Airports
economies worldwide must plug an infrastructure Ports 20
gap estimated by the World Bank at more than Rail

US$1tr per year (Fig 2). Roads

10

0
Required Expected

Fig 2: Global Investment Requirements in US$tr,

2013–2030
[The Economist, 2014] 02
 housing

c Ralf Kayser
urbanisation

do you have a safe and secure home?

social

The worldwide population living in informal settlements grew from 689m in

1990 to over 880m in 2014, an increase equivalent to the entire population
of Brazil.
—United Nations (2016)
housing Affordability gap ($ billion) Country income group

urbanisation
High Mid Low
16
Lagos
Adequate and affordable housing has been 14

Affordability gap (US$bn)

recognised as a fundamental human right since 12 Dhaka
Mumbai
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 10
Beijing
1948. However, cities in developing and developed 8
Shanghai
nations alike are struggling to provide housing for a 6
London
4
rapidly expanding urban population. The threshold Tokyo
2
for housing affordability is widely defined by a 0
New York

maximum of 30-40% of income spent on housing. 1 5 10 15 20 36

social
Population (million)
Around 330M households worldwide were
financially stretched by housing costs in 2014 Fig 1: Affordability gap as % of GDP for 2400
(Fig 1). The UN estimates that one billion new leading cities
[UN, 2015]
housing units will be needed by 2025 to meet the
demand of growing urban populations.

Informal settlement dweller percentage

100

79.5
Rapid urbanisation, especially in countries without 75 69.6

strong building regulation, is often accompanied 58.9

51.4
47
by the development of informal settlements. 50
37.4
According to UN estimates, almost 40% of 34.4
23
urban expansion across the globe is occurring 25

as informal settlement. In some regions, informal

development can house well over half the urban 0

population, reaching nearly 80% in some Latin

rica

Asia

Asia

Asia

sia

ania
Afric
fric

rn A
me

Oce
th A
st

tern

ast

an
American cities (Fig 2). Informal settlements

We
in A

the
the
Nor

har
Eas

Sou
Lat

Sou

-Sa
present many challenges to residents, including

Sub
poor quality, overcrowded housing; absent or ad
Fig 2: Proportion of urban population living in
hoc infrastructure and limited access to public informal settlements
services, health care and employment. [UN, 2014] 03
 public health

c Matt Cornock
urbanisation

does city living support your wellbeing?

social

Urban citizens are at 20% greater risk of developing anxiety disorders and
40% more likely to develop mood disorders than their rural counterparts.
—LSE Cities (2011)
public health

urbanisation
Public health is the prevention of disease through Richest Fourth Middle Second Poorest

the organised efforts of municipalities and 100 100

institutions. City dwellers’ health generally benefits 80 80

by wealth quintile (%)

by wealth quintile (%)
from improved access to education and health

Urban coverage

Rural coverage
60 60
care, greater financial opportunity, and public
40 40
health programmes. Urban and rapidly urbanising
20 20
areas can pose health risks, however, such
as air and noise pollution, social stress, and 0 0

social
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
rapid transmission of pathogens through Urban coverage of
improved sanitation (%)
Rural coverage of
improved sanitation (%)
dense populations.
Fig 1: Sanitation access by wealth quintile
[WHO, 2015]
Around 700m urban residents worldwide lack
access to sanitation (Fig 1), posing an increased
risk of illness and infection. Disease in cities is 2015 2040

not limited to developing countries; tuberculosis 500

rates in Toronto, Canada, and Osaka, Japan, are

477.9
400
300% higher than respective national averages.
Urbanisation may also have a role in the increased 300

(Million)
global prevalence of non-communicable diseases

269.7
200
(NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes and chronic

163.9
respiratory ailments. NCDs are the leading cause 100

145.1
of mortality worldwide, responsible for 38m deaths 0
per year. NCD risk factors such as unhealthy Diabetes in Diabetes in
diets, sedentary lifestyles, and substance abuse urban areas rural areas
correlate with trends towards urbanisation in over
Fig 2: Projected urban/rural diabetes rates
100 countries (Fig 2). through 2040
[International Diabetes Federation, 2015] 04
 community

c Zero One
urbanisation

do you know your neighbours?

social

Only 20% of Americans regularly socialise with their neighbours, compared

to 30% in the 1970s; almost one third have no community interaction at all.
—City Observatory (2015)
community MBDD = Mental, behavioural, or developmental disorder

urbanisation
80

70 with without
A sense of community is an important indicator MBDD MBDD
60
of city liveability and indirectly contributes to Urban

Prevalence (%)
50 Large rural
urban economic productivity. The benefits of Small rural
Isolated
robust urban communities include desirability 40

as a destination for both economic migration 30

and tourism, as well as improved resident health 20

outcomes (Fig 1). Strong social bonds between 10
city residents lead to both improved participation

social
0
in municipal governance and reduced crime rates; Neighbourhood Neighbourhood in Neighbourhood Neighbourhood
with limited poor condition with little social unsafe
a community’s collective ‘eyes on the street’ amenities support
are often a more proactive, efficient, and cost-
effective crime deterrent than increased policing. Fig 1: Prevalence of rural and urban community
factors in mental, behavioural and developmental
disorder rates
Urban planning is widely recognised as an [CDC, 2015]

important determinant of vigorous communities.

The face-to-face encounters that create and One-mile walk in a compact One-mile walk in a
sustain urban communities are promoted by neighbourhood sprawling neighbourhood

medium to high density, walkable, mixed-use

areas with minimal motorised traffic and
numerous green and public spaces; these
encounters are reduced by higher traffic volumes
and sprawl (Fig 2). The UN has identified a global
trend towards commercialisation and privatisation
of urban public space as a threat to robust
community development.
Fig 2: Planned neighbourhood vs unplanned sprawl
[Sightline Institute, 2015] 05
 seamlessness

c Oatsy40
when will your city choreograph your life?
urbanisation
technological

Since the introduction of mobile payment options on the Transport for

London network, 25,000 new mobile devices have been used to board the
system every day. —Transport for London (2016)
seamlessness
Seamlessness is the integration of multiple urban

urbanisation
systems via digital technology to create efficient,
on-demand multi-modal services. A key element
of seamlessness within cities is the ability for
people to move through many systems — both
digital and physical without experiencing delays
or pain points. These systems leverage near field
communications allowing individuals to navigate
through city streets and options for types
of destinations and experiences (Fig 1).

technological
Urban living is a reality for half of the worlds Fig 1: Near field communcation services
population, a number that is expected to rise to [SK Telecom, 2016]

70% by the year 2050. Through the rise digital

payments cities and private institutions can North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia-Pacific
(Developed)
measure how systems perform in order to plan,
optimise and deploy new services or increase 48% 52% 66% 34% 66% 34% 66% 34%

demand during peak hours (Fig 2). Demand

management and systems optimisation allows
Latin America Africa Asia-Pacific
people who live, travel and spend in cities a more (Emerging)

sustainable and holistic experience that will allow

for more enjoyable and effortless commutes 91% 9% 99% 1% 98% 2%

and transactions which will enhance liveability

on a global scale.
Cash Non-cash

Fig 2: Global proportion of cash and non-cash payments

[Raconteur, 2016] 06
 intelligent systems

c Department of Energy and Climate Change

when will your city anticipate your needs?
urbanisation
technological

By 2030, ICT-enabled solutions have the potential to save 6.3 billion MWh
of energy and reduce global CO2e emissions by 1.8 Gt CO2e through better
supply and demand management, integration of renewables and grid
efficiency gains. —GeSI (2015)
intelligent systems Smart governance and
smart education

Smart Smart
Intelligent systems are technologies that combine citizen healthcare

urbanisation
distributed ubiquitous sensing, predictive
processing, and realtime collaboration, allowing
cities to efficiently gather data, manage assets and
Smart Smart
monitor resources. Applied to a variety of urban energy building
functions, including energy, water, waste, transit,
infrastructure and safety, intelligent systems can
optimise resource use and dynamically manage Smart Smart
services to adapt to changing conditions (Fig 1). technology mobility
Santander, Spain, for example, has deployed a

technological
Smart
network of 12,000 sensors to continuously measure infrastructure
air quality, traffic volumes, parking availability,
garbage collection and lighting levels. Fig 1: Smart City networked resources
[Forbes, 2014]

Intelligent systems in cities across the globe 200

generate increasing volumes of data, covering 180
everything from city services and resource use to 160
the behaviour and lifestyle patterns of residents. 140

The amount of data created globally is increasing 120

100
exponentially: in 2013, 4 zettabytes, 1021 bytes, of
80
data were generated worldwide; by 2020 this figure 60
is projected to reach 44 zettabytes (Fig 2). 40
20
0
2013 2020 2025

Fig 2: Global data generation, 2003–2025

[IDC, 2016] 07
 autonomy

c Pjotr Mahhonin
how long will we drive?
urbanisation
technological

In the first quarter of 2016, for the first time, mobile carriers reported
activating more connected cars than phones. —The Guardian (2017)
autonomy High-disruption scenario Low-disruption scenario
Availability in popular
consumer models Conditionally
100 Gradual ramp-up autonomous
Autonomy refers to urban systems capable of of manufacturing

New-vehicle market share of

90 Fully

autonomous vehicles (%)

capacity by tech

urbanisation
80 autonomous
operating without human control or intervention. 70
players

Songdo, South Korea, for example, has an 60 Commercial

introduction
50 Technical/regulatory
automated waste disposal system; household 40
by new tech barriers delaying
players and commercial-scale Conditionally
trash is pneumatically removed from residences, 30 premium introduction autonomous
OEMs
sorted and recycled without human input. 20
10
Fully
autonomous
Autonomous drones can inspect, repair and even 0
create urban structures; Tokyo, Japan responded 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Commercial introduction Low perceived value or negative publicity
to a labour shortage threatening construction by mass-market leaders following critical incidents, causing slow
consumer uptake
deadlines for the 2020 Olympics by deploying

technological
drone-guided autonomous bulldozers to construct Fig 1: New-vehicle market share of autonomous
venue foundations. vehicles through 2030
[McKinsey, 2016]

Automated vehicles may transform urban centers

and how we get around them, resulting in safer,
Parking
cleaner cities with increased mobility for all
citizens. Even at the lowest adoption rates, self-
driving cars are projected to constitute 40% of Buildings
new vehicles by 2030 (Fig 1). Large-scale use
of automated vehicles could eliminate urban City
Hall Green space
congestion, reduce emissions and traffic incidents,
and turn commutes from a source of stress into Sprint
Centre
productive time. In developed countries, surface Roads

parking can exceed 30% of a city’s buildable

area (Fig 2). Automated vehicles can significantly
reduce the number of cars on the road, freeing up Fig 2: Downtown parking footprint, Kansas City, US
this valuable land for development. [Economist, 2017] 08
 utility provision

c Dean Hochman
what services will your city provide?
urbanisation
technological

Africa’s urban population will triple by 2050; despite this, the share of the
urban population with water piped to their premises has declined from 43%
in 1990 to 33% in 2015. —World Bank (2016)
utility provision
Municipal utilities are services provided by city

urbanisation
governments in exchange for revenue gained from
residents’ taxes, permits and fees. Historically,
utilities have included sanitation, water distribution,
street maintenance, police, fire response, ambulance
service, transportation, libraries and schools.
Cities often contract with commercial providers of
electricity, gas, and cable television services.

Digital connectivity is increasingly recognised

technological
as an essential service; US federal courts have ruled
that high-speed Internet is defined as a utility, Fig 1: Perth tourism corridor free internet map
[City of Perth, 2013]
not a luxury. An increasing number of global cities
are providing internet services to their population
as a means of both enhancing competitiveness and
strategically activating public spaces for business Privatised Delivery 185
or tourism purposes (Fig 1).

Increased utility provision costs are a feature of

growing cities; sprawl increases the direct costs of Municipal Service 75
last-mile service, and salary costs for labour-intensive
services such as police and fire departments can
balloon as cities grow. Privatisation of utilities is 0 50 100 150 200

on the rise worldwide (Fig 2), as city governments $USD

grapple with public sector budget cuts and rising per- Fig 2: Average OECD private vs municipal utility costs
capita service costs of growing populations. [OECD, 2014]
09
 data dependency

c Leonardo Rizzi
how secure are our systems?
urbanisation
technological

In December 2015, a cyber attack on the distribution management system of

the Ukranian power grid cut power to 225,000 people in midwinter.
—E-ISAC (2016)
data dependency High-income economies
Lower-middle-income economies
Upper-middle-income economies
Low-income economies
World
0.40
Data dependency is the increasing reliance of

urbanisation
cities on digital technology for a wide variety 0.30
of monitoring, mobility, service and logistics

Percent
0.20
functions. Digitisation encourages innovation,
creates efficiencies, and reduces municipal 0.10
expenditures, but can make cities and city
0.00
infrastructure vulnerable to malicious hacking.

0
0

0
202
201

201

202

203
With cyber attacks costing businesses up
to US$400 billion a year as of 2015, global Fig 1: ICT cybersecurity spending, by World Bank
cybersecurity spending is projected to consume country income group, percent of GDP

technological
[Atlantic Council, 2015]
an increasing percentage of GDP across
national income levels through 2030 (Fig 1).
2 day power outage
1 day power outage
Even when secure from hacking, digital urban
systems are vulnerable to software and hardware
New Delhi
failures. Cities’ complex infrastructure and high
population densities make service disruptions
particularly consequential. Power interruptions can Calcutta

disrupt economic activity and prevent public safety Mumbai

communication; 2012 blackouts in India took

32GW of generated electricity offline and affected
over 620m people, leaving 9% of the world Bangalore

population without power (Fig 2).

Fig 2: Regions of India affected by 2012 blackout

[Telegraph, 2012] 10
 employment

c Rong Hua
will there be enough jobs?
urbanisation
economic

If all cities matched the job creation rate of the top 25% of performers in
their region, 19 million jobs could be created annually. —World Bank (2015)
employment Euro areas OECD United States Japan
3
Employment, the provision of labour in return for

Employment growth (% change)

2
payment, is a gateway out of poverty and a key 1
determinant of individual life satisfaction. 0
Cities offer significant opportunities for formal and -1
informal employment; jobs act as a magnet for

urbanisation
-2
economic migration and rural-to-urban relocation. -3
In the UK, urban centres account for 78% of all -4
jobs; in the US, metropolitan areas account for -5
84% of total employment and 88% of labour

7
200

200

200

201

201

201

201

201

201

201

201
income. In the decade from 2007 to 2017, urban
employment growth led the OECD countries out of Fig 1: Urban employment growth, year-on-year
a global recession (Fig 1); by 2030, the world’s percentage change
[ILO, 2016]
top 750 cities will account for 61% of global
GDP and 30% of all jobs.

economic
High income OECD
However, cities also account for 60% of East Asia & Pacific
unemployment in the UK, Japan, Korea, South Asia
Netherlands and the US. In 2015, global Sub-Saharan Africa
unemployment was nearly 6%, primarily in sectors Middle East
strongly associated with urban areas, such as Latin America
finance, construction, and tourism. Informal Europe Central Asia
economies make up 25-40% of GDP in some 0 10 20 30 40 50
countries (Fig 2), posing a challenge in financing Average informal employment
and providing urban infrastructure and services.
Fig 2: Average informal employment as a percentage of
total non-agricultural employment
[World Bank, 2015]
11
 inequality

c Marco Verch
is your city evenly distributed?
urbanisation
economic

The gap between rich and poor is at its highest level in 30 years in most
OECD countries, with the richest 10% earning almost 10 times as much as
the poorest 10%. —OECD (2015)
inequality 0.50
2000s
0.45
Inequality is the economic gap between high- and 1980s
0.40
low-income households. In many OECD countries,
income inequality is at a 30-year high (Fig 1) and 0.35

projected to intensify. In Washington, Miami and 0.30

New York, inequality levels are as high as Nairobi, 0.25

urbanisation
Buenos Aires and Abidjan. One in eight people 0.20
globally live in informal settlements, while gated
0.15
communities are the fastest growing housing type

xico

tes

el

Italy

nd

an

ada

ny
trali
Isra

gdo
in the US. In Buenos Aires, Argentina, 50% of

ma
Jap
la
Sta

Can
Me

Zea
Aus

Ger
Kin
ed
residents lack sewer connections and 25% lack

New
Unit

ed
Unit
access to piped water; meanwhile, 400 gated
Fig 1: Increasing income inequality, mid 1980s
communities provide security, utilities, schooling vs late 2000s
and medical care to 90,000 households. [World Bank, 2014]

economic
Inequality denies swathes of urban populations
Worse USA

Index of health and social problems

opportunities for advancement, excluding them
from socially and economically productive life. Portugal
Inequality is correlated with slower and less UK
Greece
stable economic growth, increased crime rates, Austria France
Ireland New Zealand
and declining health outcomes on both ends of Denmark Germany Canada
Spain Italy
Australia

Finland Belgium
the economic spectrum (Fig 2), as prolonged Norway Netherlands
Switzerland

inequality wears away at the bonds of social Sweden

Japan
cohesion, inducing stress and insecurity. Better
Low High
Income inequality

Fig 2: Health & social problems as a factor of inequality

[University of Nottingham, 2010] 12
 intellectual capital

c Vmuru
does your city attract the right talent?
urbanisation
economic

In a survey of 150 founders of Inc. 500 companies, only 5% indicated tax

incentives were a key factor in locating their business; over 30% cited
access to talent. —International Labor Organisation (2017)
intellectual capital 60%
51%
50%
43%
Intellectual capital is the intangible value of the 40% 35%
skills, relationships and potential productive 30%
30%
activity of a city’s residents. Urban intellectual
capital can be fostered locally through long-term 20%
investment in education and/or attracted from

urbanisation
10%
elsewhere; skilled migrants further bolster a
0%
city’s value and competitiveness, as diversity is a London high risk London low or UK high risk UK low or no risk
strong indicator of prosperity. no risk

Fig 1: Jobs at risk from automation by 2030, London

A key driver of sustainable economic growth in an vs UK general
[Deloitte, 2014]
urbanising world is the ability of cities to attract
and retain the right talent and skills. Research Market Towns Production Centers Creative and Financial
suggests that a focus on the knowledge economy aiming for
industrialisation
aiming to increase
the value of production
Services
converting
may help future-proof cities against job loss deindustrialisation

economic
to growth
to automated technologies, such as machine ~$1K ~$2.5K ~$5000 ~$10K ~$20K ~$50K
100
learning and mobile robotics (Fig 1).

Share of total gross value added (%)

80 High-end services

As the maker economy and relocalisation trends

return industry to cities, matching the correct 60
Public services

balance of workforce creativity, service and 40 Consumer services

production skills to city income and growth Agriculture
rate will be an important determinant of city 20
Manufacturing,
competitiveness (Fig 2). construction, utilities,
and mining
0
Brands of 15 cities ordered from lowest to highest GDP per capita

Fig 2: Employment by occupation category and

creative probability, US / UK
[Nesta, 2016] 13
 corporate ownership

c Paul Wilkinson
who sponsors your city?
urbanisation
economic

In the UK alone, all major airports, all passenger rail rolling stock, most ports,
and 50% of all water assets are owned by specialist private investors.
—PWC (2017)
corporate ownership
Corporate ownership of urban spaces and
structures is an important income stream
for municipal governments. While corporate
sponsorship of urban venues is a not new, the
line dividing public infrastructure and private

urbanisation
investment is increasingly blurry, resulting in
privately owned public spaces (POPS). POPS are
arenas, parks, rail stations and even pavements
accessible to the public, but where private
ownership places legal restrictions on access
and activity, for instance restricting protests, right Fig 1: Privately owned public spaces (POPS) in
to pass or media coverage of certain groups. Central London
[Guardian/GIGL, 2017]
London alone contains 46 ‘public’ areas owned
and policed by private investors (Fig 1), with many

economic
Nationality Residence
new-build projects falling into the POPS category.

On a smaller scale, residential properties owned

by foreign investors, often through tax havens,
stand empty in many global cities, destabilising
housing prices and often pushing longtime local
residents to the periphery (Fig 2).
UK Non-UK UK Non-UK

31% 69% 51% 49%

Fig 2: New-build buyers in prime central London
[Knight Frank, 2013]

14
 systems capacity

p Bernard Spragg
will your deliveries be on time?
urbanisation
economic

China’s online retail market accounted for US$750bn in sales to 460m

users in 2016; by 2020, this is expected to reach US$1.7tr in orders by 700m
users. —Goldman Sachs (2017)
systems capacity
Systems capacity is the ability of logistics networks Motorcycle
Car
to adapt to changing volumes of delivered goods. Light-duty vehicle
As online shopping has exploded in popularity Light truck
Police
since 2010, global urban systems have struggled Para shuttle
to cope (Fig 1). In developed nations, each urban Delivery truck

urbanisation
resident consumes 30–50 tonnes of goods per School bus
Class 8 truck
year; 400 daily lorry trips are required for every Transit bus
1000 city dwellers, a figure projected to rise with Refuse truck

the increasing popularity of delivered goods 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Miles per gasoline-gallon equivalent
worldwide. Urban freight makes up only 10 –15% of
city traffic, but causes significant impacts including Fig 1: Average fuel economy of major vehicle
lost revenue, congestion, and emissions. Deliveries categories
[US Federal Highway Administration, 2015]
block both street and sidewalk, reducing both
parking and foot traffic for city businesses.

economic
Faced with growing populations, city governments

Q line
B line
are increasingly regulating supplier delivery

E 16 ST

E 17 ST

E 18 ST

E 19 ST

Ocean Ave

E 21 ST
schedules (Fig 2) around shopping hours. Demand-
side challenges include just-in-time logistics and Church Avenue
the rise of online shopping, both of which increase
shipment frequency. In the US, order volumes to
online retailer Amazon regularly overwhelm delivery Delivery window spaces from 7 AM – 12 PM, Mon-Fri
services’ capacity during the winter holidays; Delivery window spaces from 7 AM – 3 PM, Mon-Fri

Amazon’s sales are projected to double by 2020,

Fig 2: Logistics scheduling for transit outflow and
to 13bn shipments per year. local revenue
[City of New York, 2015]

15
 ecological footprint

p Bureau of Land Management California

how many resources will your city consume?
environmental urbanisation

Urban areas account for over 76% of CO2 emissions from global final energy
use and between 65–75% of global energy use. —UNEP (2011)
ecological footprint
Ecological footprint is the impact of urban 12
Urbanisation
areas upon the local and global environment. 10

National ecological footprint

level in 2015

(global ha/person) 2006

Measured in global hectares (gha), this metric 8 >90%
80–90%
represents the total land area needed to provide 6
70–80%
60–70%
resources for a city and absorb its emissions 50–60%
4 40–50%
and waste. As cities are centres of production 30–40%

environmental urbanisation
and consumption, urbanised countries tend to 2 20–30%
<20%
have a larger per capita footprint (Fig 1). There is, 0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
however, significant variation between the average Human development index 2017
urban ecological footprints of developed nations.
Canada, for example, has a per capita ecological Fig 1: Ecological footprint by urbanisation levels
footprint of 8.2 gha, whereas Norway’s footprint of countries
[UNEP, 2015]
is only 5.0 gha, despite very similar urbanisation
ratios of around 80%. 5,000,000
4,500,000

Sprawl is a particular contributor to cities’ 4,000,000

Square kilometers
3,500,000
ecological footprint. Inefficient population 3,000,000
India (3,287,590)

densities consume land otherwise used for 2,500,000

2,000,000 Mexico (1,964,375)
periurban agriculture (Fig 2), directly increasing 1,500,000
vehicle miles traveled for consumable goods 1,000,000
S. Africa (1,221,037)
Turkey (783,562)
entering the city. Decreased walkability in 500,000
0
sprawling cities indirectly encourages individual 5 10 20 40 80 160 320

motor vehicle use for commuting, service delivery Sprawl North American European Asian

and logistics, raising CO 2 emissions. Density: Residents per hectare

Fig 2: Land needed to accommodate 2.2bn people

at various densities
[World Bank, 2014] 16
 heat islands

c John Dunsmore
how hot will your city become?
environmental urbanisation

In the United States, urban heat island effect is responsible for 5–10%
of peak electric demand for air conditioning use, and as much as 20% of
population-weighted smog concentrations in urban areas.
—Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (2005)
heat islands 33.3
32.8
Urban heat island (UHI) effect describes the 32.2

Temp (°C)
31.7
tendency for metropolitan areas to be significantly 31.1
warmer than surrounding rural areas. Several 30.6
factors contribute to UHI. Dark city surfaces 30.0
29.4
absorb solar radiation; reduced vegetation creates
little shade and increases CO2 emissions; waste

al

wn

l
ntia

rcia

ntia

ntia

environmental urbanisation
Par
Rur

nto
heat from energy use creates local greenhouse

ide

me

ide

ide
Dow
res

res

res
Com
conditions. UHI can make cities up to 3°C hotter

an

an

an
urb

Urb

urb
than surrounding areas during the day, and up to

Sub

Sub
12°C in the evening, depending on zoning (Fig 1).
Fig 1: Urban heat island profile
[EPA, 2014]
UHI exacerbates heat waves and increases
heat-related mortality for sensitive populations
1200
such as children, older adults and low-income

Average electric load (MWh)

populations. In the US, extreme heat causes more 1000

deaths annually than all other natural hazards 800

combined. UHI also drives up energy demand:
600
as temperatures rise, more city dwellers turn on
their air conditioning. Urban electric demand can 400

increase by up to 2% for every 0.6°C increase in 200

summertime temperature (Fig 2). Based on current 0
warming rates, demand for electrical cooling could 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
require 10–20% average additional generating (-18) (-7) (4) (16) (27) (38) (49)

capacity in urban areas by 2050. Maximum daily temp °F (°C)

Fig 2: Power loads by temperature increase,

New Orleans
[EPA, 2015] 17
 natural disasters

c Department of Foreign AffairsTrade

is your city prepared?
environmental urbanisation

Of 1,692 global cities, only 93 are immune to any risk of hurricane,

earthquake, flood, landslide or volcanic eruption. The only megacity in this
group is Moscow, Russia. —UN (2015)
natural disasters
Natural disasters, major adverse events involving 1950 2014
2,500
natural processes such as floods, hurricanes and

2,053
1,937
City population (millions)
earthquakes are increasing in both frequency and 2,000

1,363
intensity. In the 600 largest cities in the world, 1,500
the number of people at risk has exponentially 1,000

839
increased over the past half-century (Fig 1).

environmental urbanisation
358
500

382
239
379m city dwellers live at risk of flooding, 283m

265

149
173

54

30
live in earthquake zones and 157m are at risk 0
Not Highly Not highly Highly Not highly Highly
from windstorms. Coastal cities, home to 13% highly
exposed
exposed vulnerable to vulnerable to
mortality mortality
vulnerable
to economic
vulnerable
to economic
of the world’s urban population, are seeing sea losses losses

levels rise by over 3mm annually. Effects of natural

Fig 1: Urban residents at risk of natural disaster
disasters can be exacerbated by the high density [United Nations, 2015]
and interdependence of city infrastructure, making
challenging terrain for emergency responders.
2000 2009–13
Natural disasters can have significant economic
effects beyond initial damage; the US city of New
Orleans, heavily damaged by Hurricane Katrina
in 2005, saw elevated levels of poverty persisting
nearly a decade after the storm (Fig 2). Every US$1
spent on building urban disaster preparedness
and resilience can save as much as US$4 in relief,
recovery and reconstruction. Less than 10% 10% – 20% 20% – 30%

30% – 40% Greater than 40%

Fig 2: Neighbourhood poverty in New Orleans, pre- and

post-Katrina
[The Brookings Institution, 2017] 18
 urban sprawl

c Oliver Dodd
where does your city end?
environmental urbanisation

2.2 billion new urban residents are expected in the developing world by
2050. At sprawled densities, the amount of land needed to house them will
be greater than the total area of India. —UN Habitat. (2015)
urban sprawl Diagrams of representative suburbs

Sprawl is the process by which cities and their Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Willingboro, NJ, USA

populations expand from a centralised core

into low-density peripheral areas. Especially in
developing countries, urban expansion is outpacing
urbanisation. The urban population in developing
countries is projected to double by 2030, while urban

environmental urbanisation
land area is likely to triple in the same period.
Houses Paved roads 50 m
Inefficient low-density development can occur in
heavily planned, automobile-dependent cities as
Fig 1: Patterns of sprawl
easily as in the total absence of planning (Fig 1). The [Economist, 2016]
creation of sprawl generally reduces city liveability;
low-density areas cause longer commutes, less 18

efficient delivery of municipal services, and poor 16

Lane miles per 1,000 residents

public transport. The environmental impact of sprawl 14
is both immediate, in terms of lost agricultural land, 12
wildlife habitats and groundwater recharge terrain,
10
and ongoing, in terms of elevated CO2 emissions.
8

Low-density development requires, on average, 6

300% the infrastructure investment per resident 4
of well-planned growth (Fig 2). In the US, sprawl 2
costs US$1tr annually; 50% of this cost is borne by R2 = 0.447
0
consumers in higher vehicle maintenance and utility 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
bills, while 50% is social costs of sprawl as poor Residents per square mile
health outcomes from elevated pollution. Fig 2: Urban density vs roadway supply
[LSE Cities, 2015] 19
 ecosystem integration

Shankbone
c image credit
how does nature support your city?

c David
environmental urbanisation

The 100 largest cities in the world occupy less than 1 percent of our planet’s
land area; the watersheds on which they depend cover over 12 percent.
—UN Habitat (2016)
ecosystems integration Timber production Carbon storage
in Central Kalimantan province in Central Kalimantan province

An ecosystem is a dynamic complex of plant, High: 1.67 m3/ha/year High: 7935 ton C/ha
animal and microorganism communities and their Low: 0.36 m3/ha/year Low: 32 ton C/ha

nonliving environment, interacting as a functional

unit. Ecosystems provide essential services to
cities. Within cities, they contribute to public health,
regulate temperature, reduce pollution, and provide

environmental urbanisation
recreational opportunities. Surrounding cities,
ecosystems moderate stormwater damage from
extreme weather events and improve the quality of
watersheds. Far from cities, ecosystems are a source Fig 1: Ecosystem service maps of Kalimantan
of food, medicines, building materials and carbon province, Borneo
sequestration for urban cores (Fig 1). Cities rely on [Wageningen University, 2015]

ecosystem services from a land area estimated

at 500-1000 times the size of a city’s municipal
Hypoxic Eutrophic
boundaries; globally, ecosystem services are valued
at anywhere from US$33tr to US$64tr.

While cities depend on ecosystems, they can also

jeopardise them. As cities grow, they consume land
occupied by complex ecosystems, often resulting in
loss of species and habitat. A study of 50 global cities
showed a strong negative correlation between urban
development and preservation of forest, cropland
and grassland. Similar results have been found for
urban-adjacent marine ecosystems; urban wastewater
discharge is responsible for an estimated 245,000km2 Fig 2: World hypoxic and eutrophic coastal areas
of de-oxygenated coastal water dead zones (Fig 2). [UC Davis, 2014] 20
 crime

c Mike Knell
do you feel safe in your city?
urbanisation
political

The cumulative cost of urban crime and violence is staggering, reaching

10% of GDP in some countries. —World Bank (2016)
crime National rate
2006–2016 or latest
Africa
North America
Latin America/Caribbean
National rate, 2016 or latest

Crime and violence continues to be a pervasive El Salvador

challenge in urban areas around the world, to a Mexico

Honduras
degree that city governments in many developing
Brazil
nations are treating crime as a public health Guatemala
crisis (Fig 1). While cities can deter crime through South Africa
neighborhood design, policing, outreach, and United States Total number of
homocides
surveillance, urban areas naturally provide the Colombia 2,500
1,000
100
anonymity and concentration of financial and Puerto Rico
Jamaica
logistics systems that attract criminal activity.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Without consistent, holistic planning and
management, the levels of population density and Fig 1: Homicides per 100,000 population

urbanisation
inequality in cities can generate or inflame [Economist, 2016]

public violence.
Type of terrorist attack

Urban crime is most severe in developing Ft. Hood

Boston,
Times London Nuclear
Nuclear
bomb, Grand
countries, where urban population growth
 is rapid Shooting Square bombing 9/11 bomb, port Central
bombing Station
and often accompanied by haphazard planning
Losses per
and development. According to the United Nations, incident
$100 million $500 million $5 billion $200 billion $1 trillion $5 trillion

60% to 70% of urban residents in developing

Level of risk reduction assumed

10 % 7,500 1500 150 4 0.75 0.15
countries have been victims of crime at least

political
25 % 3,000 600 60 2 0.30 0.06
once over the past five years. Global terrorism 50 % 1,500 300 30 0.75 0.15 0.03
75 % 1,000 200 20 0.50 0.10 0.02
increasingly constitutes a fundamental threat to 90 % 833 167 17 0.42 0.08 0.02
cities’ security, countering which requires complex 100 % 750 150 15 0.38 0.08 0.02
and expensive combinations of preparedness
planning, systems redundancy, and response
Fig 2: Incident frequency, counterterror expenditure
training, none of which can guarantee absolute and risk reduction percentage
reductions in risk (Fig 2). [Cato Institute, 2014] 21
 infrastructure

c Jimmy0930fly
is your city in good shape?
urbanisation
political

Maintaining global urban infrastructure at current minimum functional

requirements will require additional investment of over US$1tr per year.
—World Economic Forum (2015)
infrastructure
Infrastructure is the basic physical facilities needed Govt subsidy Public equity Public debt
Private equity Private debt DFI debt
for a city and its services to function: roads, 20
bridges, buildings, power and telecommunications 18

networks. The condition of a city’s infrastructure 16

14
affects its citizens’ quality of life, social inclusion

US$ (billions)
12
and productivity, as well as crime rates, migration, 10
8
and investment. 6
4
2
Rapid population growth in low-income cities 0
worldwide has outpaced the capacity of municipal East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East
Pacific Central Asia and the and North
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
governments to fund adequate infrastructure. Caribbean Africa

urbanisation
Private investment makes up a significant share of Fig 1: Infrastructure funding breakdown by region
global infrastructure spending regardless of region [World Bank, 2015]
(Fig 1), but remains US$1tr short of required levels.
Despite higher tax rates, infrastructure funding in
many high-income cities has similarly fallen Urban Area Structurally deficient Functionally obsolete
behind growth. Albany 10% 30%
Buffalo 9% 27%
In many cities in the US northeast, for example, New York City 9% 48%
over 50% of bridges are 75 years old (Fig 2). 25% Rochester 9% 33%

political
of wastewater facilities serving New York City have Syracuse 14% 25%
exceeded their 30-year lifespans, and 30% of city
Fig 2: Condition of urban bridges in New York State, US
sewers are over 60 years old. Funding strategies [Federal Highway Administration, 2015]
have not kept pace with decaying systems; for
every dollar needed to repair infrastructure,
reinvestment only provides 20 cents.
22
 participatory planning

c Fibonacci Blue
are you able to shape your city?
urbanisation
political

SeeClickFix.com allows residents in cities across the US to report damaged

infrastructure using a smartphone; since its launch in 2008, the service has
alerted municipalities to over 2.6m issues, with an 86% fix rate.
—Univision Media (2017)
participatory planning Wider access to public digital platforms
that enable citizens and decision makers 51%
Participatory planning is an approach to urban to communicate and collaborate

development and management that directly Expansion of free wi-fi access in

public spaces
50%

engages citizens in decision-making. Community More information about

50%
smart city projects
involvement in governance and maintenance is as
Greater involvement from the private
old as cities themselves, but intercity competition sector in smart city projects 24%

and advances in technology are giving the concept Greater availability of peer-to-peer
information sharing networks 19%

new relevance. No improvement needed 8%

Since 2006, nearly ubiquitous smart devices have Fig 1: Factors driving city/community engagement
enabled a new era of citizen engagement (Fig 1). in European cities
[Economist, 2015]
Digital platforms are being leveraged by cities

urbanisation
worldwide to facilitate crowdsourcing, participatory
budgeting, interactive mapping and citizen-science 80%
initatives to track effects of climate shifts on
70%
city populations.
60%

Public participation can strengthen transparency 50%

and accountability of the public sector by 40%

increasing trust between communities and local 30%
authority. This bond is crucial to the productive

political
20%
functioning of urban communities at a time when
10%
trust in government is decreasing worldwide. A
0%
survey of 32 European countries found that trust
8
1
4
7
0
3
6
9
2
5
8
1
4
7
0
3
6
9
2
5
195
196
196
196
197
197
197
197
198
198
198
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
201
201
in public institutions declined by an average of 5%
from 2007-2017; in the US, trust in government has Fig 2: Public Trust in government in the US, 1958–2015
been steadily declining since the 1960s (Fig 2). [Pew Research, 2016]
23
 placemaking

c Kathleen Corey
do you utilise all your city’s spaces?
urbanisation
political

London Borough of Harrow’s requirement that developers of local projects

over £100K adhere to a ‘social value policy’ has generated over 150 yearly
local work placements and a £28m annual return to local supply chains.
—Project for Public Spaces (2014)
placemaking
Placemaking capitalises on a local community’s Promotes Sense
of Comfort
Creates Improved
Accessibility

assets to create memorable public spaces that

promote health, happiness, and wellbeing (Fig 1).
Nutures & Defines Builds & Supports
Placemaking takes a holistic view of place, inviting Sense PLACE the Local
of Community Economy
community participation with the aim of establishing
safe, green, accessible urban areas that can
accommodate a wide variety of use patterns. Promotes
Health
Social
Interaction

Successful projects can not only enhance urban

living but also encourage local development and
attract tourism.
Fig 1: Elements of successful placemaking
[Project for Public Spaces, 2015]

urbanisation
Placemaking is increasingly recognised as a key
driver of urban liveability, providing cultural and
economic benefits for cities at lower cost and higher
Low High
impact than megaprojects such as sports arenas.
Creative re-use of decaying urban infrastructure
for placemaking projects can provide economic
uplift by stitching together areas of a city; examples
include Barcelona’s popular Las Ramblas district
built over a disused stream bed, and New York’s

political
High Line park created from a derelict elevated
train track. Seoul’s Gyeongui Line Forest Park,
redeveloped from an abandoned rail line, opened
in 2014. The placemaking project has revitalised Gyeongui Line Park Buffers New Development Area
community interaction and businesses along its
Fig 2: Real estate transaction rates since placemaking
entire length, as reflected in the continuous growth redevelopment of Gyeongui Line Park, Seoul
of the local real estate market (Fig 2). [Sustainability, 2017] 24
 urban-rural interdependence

c Highways England
do you know what you depend upon?
urbanisation
political

Cities and towns with over 100,000 inhabitants are projected to physically
expand by 170% by 2030, drastically affecting the amount of local
agricultural land available for food production and ecosystem services.
—UN Habitat (2015)
urban-rural interdependence Functional region

Economic Spatial Governance

Urban-rural interdependence is the relationship structure structure structure

between cities and the local countryside. While

Population, human capital, commuting
food production has long been the primary
Investments and economic transactions
interaction between urban areas and their rural
peripheries, the two are increasingly recognised a Urban areas Services provision Rural areas
single ‘functional region’, forming a complex web of
human, market, and environmental interactions Environmental goods and amenities

(Fig 1). These include inflow of goods and services Governance interactions / partnerships

to the city, attraction of both migration and Physical distance

commuting labour to the city, and the outflow of
profits to rural areas. Fig 1: Urban-rural functional region interactions

urbanisation
[OECD, 2015]
Technology is changing the urban-rural relationship,
most significantly in terms of the ‘bypass effect’. 6000

Population (millions)
Modern communication and distribution networks 5000
increasingly allow financial flows to link resource- 4000
producing rural areas to distant cities, bypassing 3000
the urban periphery and contributing to sprawl. 2000

Cities’ appetite for local resources increases 1000

exponentially with population; by 2030, the world 0

1990 2014 2030

political
is projected to have 41 megacities with more than
10m inhabitants each (Fig 2). Careful municipal Urban areas Cities of Medium-sized Large cities of Megacities of 10
smaller than 500,000 to cities of 1 to 5 5 to 10 million million or more
planning will be required to prevent concentration of 500,000 1 million million

rural poverty and mitigate the environmental impact

Fig 2: Projected megacity growth through 2030
of megacities’ need for resources. [UN, 2014]

25
social
01 growth
New York University. Townsend
et al (2015). Digital Master
Planning: An Emerging Strategic
Practice in Global Cities.
http://bit.ly/2BHnIvw
United Nations, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division (2014).
World Urbanization Prospects:
The 2014 Revision, Highlights.
http://bit.ly/2ohPcQL
World Bank (2017). World Bank
Data, Urban Population Growth,
selected extracts.
http://bit.ly/2oiiM8V
image: c John. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
02 opportunity
United Nations Department of
Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division (2016). The
World’s Cities in 2016.
http://bit.ly/2ojrbZH
World Bank (2017). World Bank
Data, Urban Population, selected
extracts.
http://bit.ly/2ojsxUh
The Economist (2014).
Infrastructure Financing: A Long
and Winding Road.
http://econ.st/2ojN0bq
image: c Duxbury, Michael.
Flickr, CC-BY-SA 2.0
03 housing
World Resources Institute. King
et al (2017). Confronting the
Urban Housing Crisis in the
Global South: Adequate, Secure,
and Affordable Housing.
http://bit.ly/2ohK0w9
United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development. Zhan
et al (2016). World Investment
Report 2016.
http://bit.ly/2oiYJqK
United Nations Human
Settlements Programme. Kassim
et al (2015). UN Habitat Global
Activities Report 2015: Increasing
Synergy for Greater National
Ownership.
http://bit.ly/2ogVf82
image: c Kayser, Ralf. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
04 public health
LSE Cities Centre. Adli, Mazda
(2011). Urban Stress and Mental
Health.
http://bit.ly/2ohZ9O7
World Health Organisation /
UNICEF (2014). Progress on
Drinking Water and Sanitation:
2014 Update.
http://bit.ly/2oiu3pL
International Diabetes
Foundation. Cavan, et al (2015).
IDF Diabetes Atlas, Seventh
Edition: 2015.
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The Lancet, Vol. 384. Murray et
al (2014). Global, Regional and
image: Zero One. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
National Incidence and Mortality
for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria technological
During 1990-2013: a Systematic
06 seamlessness
Analysis for the Global Burden
Mastercard (2016). Smart Cities
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http://bit.ly/2opMnMJ
https://bit.ly/2pZuBRt
image: c Cornock, Matt. Flickr,
The Guardian (2017). The rise of
CC-BY-SA 2.0
the cashless city: ‘There is this
05 community real danger of exclusion’
City Observatory. Cortright, https://bit.ly/2iuxrZs
Joe (2015). City Report: Less
in Common. Raconteur (2016). The decline
http://bit.ly/2opL2po of cash?
https://bit.ly/2sWhC3Z
Centers for Disease Control
image: c Oatsy40. Flickr,
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CC-BY-SA 2.0
al (2017). Differences in Health
Care, Family and Community 07 intelligent systems
Factors Associated with Mental, Global e-Sustainability Initiative
Behavioral and Developmental (2016). GeSI Open Dataset,
Disorders Among Children
selected extracts.
Aged 2-8 Years in Rural and
http://bit.ly/2oq4d23
Urban Areas — United States,
2011–2012. Global e-Sustainability Initiative.
http://bit.ly/2opNMmC Valvodova, et al (2014). SMARTer
2020: The Role of ICT in Driving a
Business Insider. Kiersz, Andy Sustainable Future.
(2014). These Two Maps Prove
http://bit.ly/2oq4dPB
that Living in the City is Better
Than Living in the Suburbs. Forbes. Singh, Sarwant (2014).
http://read.bi/2oqfaAP Smart Cities — A $1.5 Trillion
Market Opportunity.
United Nations Human
http://bit.ly/2opQE2J
Settlements Programme. Garau,
et al (2015). Global Public Space
Toolkit: From Global Principles to
Local Policies and Practice.
http://bit.ly/2oooXqZ
Bloomberg Businessweek.
Matlack, Carol (2013). Spain’s
Santander, the City that Runs
on Sensors.
https://bloom.bg/2op8MKb
IDC/Seagate. Reinsel et al (2016).
Data Age 2025: The Evolution of
Data to Life-Critical.
http://bit.ly/2ooHnYX
image: c Department of Energy
and Climate Change. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
08 autonomy
The Guardian. Preston, Benjamin
(2017). Rise of the Robocar: Are
Connected Cars Safer, or a Target
for Hackers?
http://bit.ly/2opQp7Y
McKinsey & Company. Hannon
et al (2016). An Integrated
Perspective on the Future of
Mobility.
http://bit.ly/2orXogq
Business Insider UK. Muoio,
Danielle (2015). Japan is
Experimenting with Robotic
Bulldozers and Drones for
Construction Because there
aren’t Enough Workers.
http://read.bi/2opLDam
The Economist (2017). How Not
to Create Traffic Jams, Pollution
and Urban Sprawl: Don’t Let
People Park for Free.
http://econ.st/2opMgAK
image: c Mahhonin, Pjotr. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
09 utility provision
World Bank (2016) World
Development Report 2016: Digital
Dividends. Overview Booklet.
CC-BY-3.0 IGO.
http://bit.ly/2onGDTU
City of Perth (2016). Free City
WiFi.
https://www.perth.wa.gov.au/node/94
Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development.
Marin et al (2014). Public-Private
Partnerships for Urban Water
Utilities: A Review of Experiences
in Developing Countries.
http://bit.ly/2opMurA
Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development.
Kauffmann et al (2009). Private
Sector Participation in Water
Infrastructure: OECD Checklist for
Public Action.
http://bit.ly/2orZ6ym
image: c Hochman, Dean. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
10 data dependency
Electricity Information Sharing
and Analysis Center. Lee et al
(2016). Analysis of the Cyber
Attack on the Ukrainian Power
Grid: Defense Use Case.
http://bit.ly/2ojaaPc
World Bank (2016). World
Development Report 2016: Digital
Dividends. Overview Booklet.
CC-BY-3.0 IGO
http://bit.ly/2onGDTU
Atlantic Council / Pardee Center
for International Futures (2015).
Risk Nexus: Overcome by Cyber
Risks? Economic Benefits and
Costs of Alternate Cyber Futures.
http://bit.ly/2opaawn
The Telegraph. Bedi, Rahul and
Crilly, Rob (2012). World’s Biggest
Ever Blackout as India is Brought
to a Standstill.
http://bit.ly/2ohU0FF
image: c Rizzi, Leonardo. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
economic
11 employment
World Economic Forum. Leopold
et al (2016). The Future of Jobs:
Employment Skills and Workforce
Strategy for the Fourth Industrial
Revolution.
http://bit.ly/2ohYIDn
World Bank International Finance
Corporation. Michelitsch et
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Assessing Private Sector
Contributions to Job Creation
and Poverty Reduction.
http://bit.ly/2olKMrk
International Labour Organization.
Horne et al (2016). World
Employment Social Outlook:
Trends 2016.
http://bit.ly/2olrq6v
International Labour Organization
(2016). ILOSTAT Open Data Set;
selected extracts.
http://bit.ly/2onev4b
World Bank Poverty Reduction
and Economic Management
Network. Benjamin et al (2014).
Informal Employment and the
World Bank.
http://bit.ly/2oi0zbj
image: c Hua, Rong. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
12 inequality
Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development.
Förster et al (2014). In It Together:
Why Less Inequality Benefits All.
http://bit.ly/2ojh5Ip
World Bank (2014). World Bank
GINI Index Dataset, selected
extracts.
http://bit.ly/2oighmV
Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
(2014). Focus on Inequality and
Growth – December 2014.
http://bit.ly/2ohD2HI
The Economist (2013).
Argentina’s Wealth Gap:
Barbarians at the Gate.
http://econ.st/2oi1F6V
University of Nottingam (2010).
Pickett, Kate and Wilkinson,
Richard. Income Inequality and
Health: A Causal Review.
http://bit.ly/2oifBhl
image: c Verch, Marco. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
13 intellectual capital
Deloitte London Futures. Frey
et al (2014). Agiletown: The
Relentless March of Technology
and London’s Response.
http://bit.ly/2ogHTJ8
National Endowment for Science,
Techology and the Arts. Bakshi
et al (2015). Creativity vs Robots:
The Creative Economy and the
Future of Employment.
http://bit.ly/2oijnr3
image: c Vmuru. Flickr,
CC-BY-SA 2.0
14 corporate ownership
PricewaterhouseCoopers /
Global Infrastructure Investor
Association. Pedler et al (2017).
Global Infrastructure Investment:
The Role of Private Capital in the
Delivery of Essential Assets
and Services.
https://pwc.to/2ojlHyd
The Guardian / Greenspace
Information for Greater London
CIC. Cox et al (2017). Privately
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15 systems capacity
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16 ecological footprint
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18 natural disasters
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19 urban sprawl
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20 ecosystem integration
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