Geostatistics in Physical Geography.

Part II: Applications

Author(s): Margaret Oliver, Richard Webster, John Gerrard
Source: Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, New Series, Vol. 14, No. 3 (1989),
pp. 270-286
Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of
British Geographers)
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270

Geostatistics in physical geography.

Part I : applications

MARGARET OLIVER*,RICHARD WEBSTERt and JOHN GERRARDt

*HonoraryResearchFellow,tSeniorLecturerin Geography,Schoolof Geography,Universityof
Birmingham,P. 0. Box363, BirminghamB15 2TT
tSeniorPrincipalScientificOfficer,RothamstedExperimental
Station,Harpenden, AL5 2JQ
Hertfordshire
RevisedMS received19 April, 1989

ABSTRACT
Regionalizedvariabletheoryhasmanypotentialapplications in physicalgeography.Theprincipalone is theestimationof
propertiesdistributedover the earth'ssurfaceto assesstheirspatialvariation.Thepaperillustratesthiswith examplesin
whichthethicknessof coverloamandthestonecontentof thesoil areestimatedandmappedoversmallregions.Thesame
procedureis used to mapthe annualrainfallover EnglandandWales,the resultsof whichdemonstratethe difficultyof
doingso withtoo few data.Thetheorycanalsobe usedto designrationalsamplingschemesformapping,andanexample
of a surveyin theWyreForestdescribesanefficienttwo-stageprocedureforthis.Applyingregionalizedvariabletheoryto
hillslopeprofiledataprovidesstatisticalsummaries of theirspatialstructure.
TheexamplesfromDartmoorshow how the
wavelengthsandamplitudesof periodicvariogramswereusedto interpretandcomparethe slopeforms.
KEYWORDS:Anisotropy,Kriging,Nested surveyandanalysis,Periodicvariogram

INTRODUCTION regionalized variables by kriging and then mapping

In Part I we summarized the central theoretical
aspects of regionalized variable theory. The intrinsic
hypothesis, with its modest assumptions, means that
the theory can be used in many practical situations
for exploring the spatial variation in little known
regions, for rigorous spatial analysis and for precise
and accurate estimation in detailed surveys. The
variogram is the central tool of geostatistics: it
provides an adequate description of the scale and
pattern of spatial variation within a given region.
The variogrammodels of spatialvariationcontain the
essential informationused in furtheranalysis, such as
estimation by kriging, optimizing sampling and
computing conditional probabilities.The models may
also indicate the underlying causes of the variation.
Much research in physical geography is explora-
tory and could benefit from the use of geostatistical
procedures. In this part of the paper we describe
examples from soil science, agriculture,geomorpho-
logy, and meteorology to illustrate some of the
ways in which geostatistics might be applied usefully
in geography. The examples include estimating
the results and estimation variances,determining the
scale of spatial variation, and understanding the
underlying structurefrom surfacemeasurements.
KRIGING
Kriging, as a means of estimation, takes full account
of the way in which a property varies in space. Its
value for interpolation and mapping is already well-
established in the earth sciences and it is also likely to
be valuable to the geographer for the same reason.
There is the added advantage that the kriging equa-
tions lead to estimates of the estimation errorswhich
can be mapped in the same way as the estimates
themselves. In this section we present several
examples to illustrate the procedure and results of
kriging: thickness of cover loam at Hole Farm,stone
content in the topsoil at Plas Gogerddan and annual
rainfallover Englandand Wales.
Thicknessof coverloamat Hole Farm
The distributionof cover loam in a field at Hole Farm
in Norfolk was mapped to see whether it could

Trans.Inst. Br. Geogr.N.S. 14: 270-286 (1989) ISSN: 0020-2754 Printedin GreatBritain
 Geostatisticsinphysical applications
geography: 271
accoLimt for the very uneven establishment of crops surface of the sand and gravel which were probably
there. Corbett and Tatler (1974) surveyed the soil caused by cryogenic perturbationsin the late Pleisto-
origiinally,and later they recorded depth of the cover cene.
loam in detail. Burgess and Webster (1980) then used The kriging equations, equations (11) to (13) in
the same measurements to produce optimal maps of PartI, were solved using the coefficients in the spheri-
the A variation in the thickness of loam using the cal model above. Estimates were made at points and
methods of regionalized variabletheory. over blocks at the intersections of a 6-67 m grid from
the original data. The nearest 25 observations were
used to compute each estimate. The results can be
1000
* displayed by threading the isarithms through the
*
.:* . . resulting fine figure fields to give 'contour' maps or
... * *perspective
. ? diagrams of the statistical surface using
800
. '*** *the programSurfaceII(Sampson, 1978). Figure2a is a
?,;~~/ * * .
:perspective diagram of such a surface produced by
600
I- */ '* * punctual kriging, and Figure 2b the corresponding
E
isarithmic map. The surface passes through the
~~~~~-;/y~~~*
400
400 observed values, and the nugget effect manifestsitself
as marked discontinuities at the sampling points.
3
200 Y(h)187.0+603.81 10.2-
(1-2)3-
o<h 101.2 These can be seen clearlyon both the perspective
Y(h).187.0+603.8 h >101.2 diagramandthe map.Suchlocalirregularitiesdo not
Y(o)- occur with block kriging. The surface of estimated
0 100 200 360 values computed from kriging over blocks of
Lag/
40 m x 40 m is displayed as a perspective diagram
FIGUI 1. S a ofomtthe thickness
RE1. Sampleandmodelvariograms tv of cover
loamaitHoleFarm,Norfolk in Figure 3a, and Figure 3b is the corresponding
isarithmicmap. The regional pattern of the variation
is now much clearer.
TIle thickness of cover loam (depth to sand and In circumstances such as these, where a farmer is
graveel in cm) was measured by augering at the inter- concerned with managing areas of land in the best
secti(ons of a 20 m squaregrid over a field of approxi- way possible, block estimates of the property are
mately 18 ha to give some 450 observations. Vario- likely to be more useful as well as producing a
gramiswere computed for the four principaldirections smoother map or surface.Furthermorethe estimation
of the grid. Since these variograms differed little the variances for block estimates are considerably less, a
variation in the thickness of loam is regarded as tenth of those for points in this analysis. Correspond-
isotreopic and can be representedby a single isotropic ing to the grid of interpolated values there is a grid of
variogram for the field. There is no evidence of any estimation variancesand these can be displayed in the
local drift in the variation. A spherical model, equa- same way as the estimates. Figure 4a is a perspective
tion ((19) part I, provided the best fit to the estimated diagram showing the point estimation variances
semi--variances,as follows for Hole Farm,and Figure4b is the corresponding one
r ?) , , , . for block estimates.
y(h)= 187-0+603-8 3 _ -
[2 101-2 2 \101-2 Stonecontentof the topsoilat Plas Gogerddan
4g^~ ~ for 0< h 101-2m The topsoil at Plas Gogerddan, the Welsh Plant
y(h) = 187-0 + 603-8 for h > 101-2 m
Breeding Station, was surveyed in detail at the inter-
sections of a 15-2 m x 15-2 m square grid. Each field
y(O)=0. (I) on the Station was surveyed in the same way, but we
have analysed the data from the largest field only,
The experimental variogram and model are given Cae Ruel. Several properties including stone content
in Figure 1. The range of spatial dependence is were measured on bulked samples from ten cores of
101-2 m. The nugget variance is approximately a 2-5 cm diameter and 15 cm deep chosen randomly
quarterof the total, i.e. there is considerablevariation within 15-2 m squares around the grid node. This
over distances less than 20 m. Such variation within gave 440 observations of stone content over the
20 m could arise from irregularitiesin the underlying field.
272 MARGARET
OLIVER, andJOHNGERRARD
RICHARDWEBSTER

FIGURE2. Estimates of the thickness of cover loam at Hole Farmproduced by punctual kriging and shown in (a) as a perspective diagram,
and in (b) as an isarithmicmap with thicknesses in cm

The variogram for the four principal directions,
along the rows and columns and parallel to the
diagonals, is shown in Figure 5. The slopes are very
differentin the differentdirections,and an anisotropic
linearmodel, equation (27) part I with a = 1, provided
the best fit in the least squaressense. The model is
y(O,h)= 9-06 + {0'4722cos2( - 2-57) +
0-1582sin2(0- 25 7)} h,
and its envelope given by setting 0= 2-57 rad and
0=2 57+7r/2 rad is shown by the heavy lines in
Figure 5.
This model was then combined with the obser-
vations to estimate the content of stones in the soil of
Cae Ruel. The nearest 20 observations were used to
estimate values of 30-5 m x 30-5 m blocks centred at
(2) 7-6 m intervals. Isarithmswere threaded through the
 inphysical
Geostatistics applications
geography: 273

FIGURE 3. Estimates of the thickness of cover loam at Hole Farm produced by block kriging and shown in (a) as a perspective
diagram, and in (b) as an isarithmic map with thicknesses in cm

fine figure field of estimates to give a map of the
variation in stone content over the field, Figure 6. It
shows clearly that the variation is greatest in the
direction NE to SW and least perpendicularto this.
Figure 7 shows the estimation variances.
Rainfallin Englandand Wales
As we mentioned in Part I (Oliver et al., 1989) one of
the earliest attempts to use geostatistics outside
mining was in meteorology (Gandin, 1965). It is an
obvious application. It is general knowledge that
places near to one another experience similar
weather, while the weather at distant places is more
or less different. We also know that there are short-
range and apparently random fluctuations. Weather
recording stations are sparse,yet people would like to
be able to estimate the values of rainfall,temperature,
insolation, etc. at places between stations. For rainfall,
274 MARGARET OLIVER,RICHARD WEBSTERandJOHN GERRARD

FIGURE4. Estimation variances for kriging the thickness of cover loam at Hole Farmshown as perspective diagrams in (a) for point kriging,
and in (b) for block kriging

060- TT

40- TT,- r
^440

200 -- --

0 50 100 150
Lag/m

FIGURE5. Sample variograms of the stone content in the topsoil at

Plas Gogerddan for four principal directions (dotted lines) and the
envelopeof the fittedanisotropiclinearmodel(solidlines)

FIGURE6. Isarithmicmap of the percentage of stones in the soil at

at least, they want to estimate averages or totals over
sizeable blocks. McCullagh (1975) had this in mind
too when he used geostatistical theory to design a
telemetry network for estimating rainfallin the catch-
ment of the River Trent. We have used the same
theory to map rainfall over England and Wales.
Although it is so obvious an application of spatial
estimation we have left it till last as it illustratessome
of the difficultiesthat can be encountered in applying
kriging.
Data for rainfallare kept by the Agricultural and
Food Research Council (AFRC) in its data bank,
Arcmet. These derive from records made at its own
institutes and farms, and at numerous other agricul-
tural experimental stations and agriculturalcolleges.
The Meteorological Office also has a number of
recording stations, and data from these, the Telex Set,
Plas Gogerddan produced by block kriging
are also held by the AFRC.We extracted the records
of rainfallfrom these two sets of data for 1984, the
year for which the records are most complete in
recent times. This gave 159 reliablevalues distributed
as shown in Figure 8. Their mean was 792 mm
and variance 59 160 mm2, equivalent to a standard
deviation of 243 mm.
We know from general knowledge that rainfall
does not vary isotropically over England and Wales.
The gradients are greater from east to west than they
are from north to south both because of a general
trend, but more specifically because the short range
variation is affected by the general north to south
alignment of the relief of the land. With this in mind
 inphysical
Geostatistics applications
geography: 275

o 0o
* 22.5?
o 45?
67.5?
Y/mm2 A 90?
* 112.5?
v 135?
100 000 v 157.5?

- , _-B
[] , "o v!
?,
o v., A

40 000-

20 000 o i *v v

0 50 100 150 200 250

Lag/km

FIGURE 9. Experimental variograms of the annual rainfall for

England and Wales for eight directions (shown by symbols), and
the envelope of the fitted anisotropic linear model (solid lines)

we computed semi-variances in eight directions

FIGURE 7. Isarithmic map of the block estimation variances for
stone content of the soil at Plas Gogerddan. The units are (percent)2
equally spaced between 0? and 180? and each
sweeping an arc of 22-5? so that we could model this
anisotropy.
The experimental variogram is very scattered
(Fig. 9), and it is difficultto discern strong directional
differences.Nevertheless it is possible to do this ana-
lytically, and an anisotropic linear model was found
that fitted much better in the least squaressense than
the best isotropic line. Two models are shown in the
Figure; the middle, solid line represents the best fit-
ting isotropic model while the two outer dashed lines
are the envelope of the best anisotropic model that
could be fitted. Its equation (Burgess and Webster,
1980) is

y(h,O)= c, + {Acos2 (- p) + Bsin2(O- (p)} h. (3)

FIGURE 8. Map of the sites in England and Wales whose annual
rainfallrecords were used for kriging
The coefficients and diagnostics of the models are
given in Table I. The goodness of fit can be deter-
mined from the residual mean square for the model;
that for the anisotropic model is just half that of
the isotropic model. Also, the Akaike Information
Criterion for the anisotropic model is less than that
for the isotropic one and so, as explained in PartI, the
additional complexity is justified.
Using this model of equation (3) and the data we
estimated the rainfallby kriging over 10 km x 10 km
blocks at intervals of 10 km on a square grid for the
whole of England and Wales. The results were
mapped isarithmicallyas before. Figure 10 shows the
results. There are no surprises: eastern England is
much drier than the south west and Wales. Readers
with local knowledge of North Wales and the Lake
276 MARGARET OLIVER,RICHARD WEBSTERandJOHN GERRARD
TABLEI. Estimatesof parametersfor isotropicand anisotropicvariogrammodelsof rainfalland theirresidualmeansquares

Value Standard
error

Isotropicmodel nugget variance, c, 19 567 4679

gradient, w 157-9/km 28-7

Residual mean square 20-01 x 109

Akaike Information Criterion 2717

Anisotropicmodel nuggetvariance,c, 19 352 3548

maximumgradient,A 243-5/km 24-4
minimumgradient,B 54-7/km 25-2
directionof 0-591 rad 0-0652
maximumgradient,p (33-9?)

Residualmeansquare 11-67 x 109

AkaikeInformation
Criterion 2667

FIGURE10.Isarithmicmapof annualrainfallin EnglandandWales FIGURE11. Isarithmic mapof blockestimationerrorsfor annual

producedby blockkriging rainfallin EnglandandWales

District will recognize that the estimated rainfallin

these mountainous regions is much less than that
recorded locally. This arises because the records are
kept largely for agriculturalpurposes, and thus the
mountains are under-represented.
Figure 11 is the associated errormap. The standard
errors are somewhat less in the south east than else-
where because most recording stations are there. The
errors increase in several areas near the coast because
there are no recording stations in the sea. Thus the
kriged estimates in places such as south Devon,
Portland Bill, east Kent, East Anglia and the Yorkshire
coast are effectively a form of extrapolation: it is
estimating beyond the field of data, and so is more
risky.
 inphysical
Geostatistics geography:
applications 277

In addition to demonstrating the application of

Y
geostatistics to estimating and mapping rainfall the
example shows the difficulty of trying to measure 500-
A
anisotropic variation on few data. A sample of A
159 may at first seem ample on which to compute a =&AA A

variogram. It gave at most, however, between 30 400

and 40 comparisons from which to estimate each
semi-variance. The confidence intervals are wide,
especially at the first lag, 20 km, and the scatter is
large therefore. We recommend samples of at least
300 for describing anisotropy.
It also illustratesanother problem. The isarithmsof
error are elongated approximately from SSW to
NNE. This is so even in eastern and southern England
where one would not expect them to be. This arises
from using a single anisotropic variogram for the
whole country. It would be better to use a different
model of the variationin the South and Eastfrom that
elsewhere. However, had we attempted to do that we
should have found that we had far too few data in the
sub-regions to compute the variograms and model
the variation sensibly there.
TWO-STAGE SAMPLING TO DETERMINE
THE VARIOGRAM
The first two examples show what was achieved by
fairly detailed sampling of single fields. In each case
the grid interval was short. At Plas Gogerddan the
variogram increased linearly over a range at least 10
times the sampling interval, while at Hole Farm the
grid spacing was only one fifth of the variogram's
range. So there was strong spatial dependence in
the data, as indeed there must be to make kriging
worthwhile. If there is no dependence then kriging
will return only the simple mean of the data. Such
interpolation is pointless and possibly misleading,
and the same would be true for any other method of
interpolation.
At Hole Farmthe investigators alreadyknew quali-
tatively the spatial scale of variation that they wished
to measure from the pattern of crop growth (Corbett
and Tatler, 1974), and so it was fairlyeasy to choose a
sampling intensity to express it. It often happens,
however, that local estimates and quantitative maps
are required for little-known regions. How should
such a region be sampled?If a given sampling interval
is sparse relative to the intensity of the variation then
there might be no dependence in the data:neighbour-
ing sites might be beyond the range of the variogram.
On the other hand if the variogram has a long range
or is unbounded with a gentle gradient then a similar
*
_.nn
0v0 - - e 0--
0---u
200-
100 -
I
0 20
200 40
400 608I
600 80 0
Lag/m
FIGURE 12. Sample and model variograms for sand content from
the first survey of the soil of the Wyre Forest with an average
sample spacing of 167 m. The semi-variances are in units of (per-
cent)2
sampling intensity might be unnecessarily dense and
so waste resources. Thus in many instances uniform
sampling over the whole region must be a hit-or-miss
affair.Some means is needed of identifying the spatial
scale of variation economically and surely, albeit
only roughly, before sampling uniformly to map.
This can be accomplished using a nested sampling
and hierarchical analysis of variance as part of a
two-stage survey (McBratneyetal., 1981). Oliver and
Webster (1987) applied this procedure profitably in
the Wyre Forest in the Midlands of England, and a
summaryof it follows.
WyreForest
The Wyre Forest lies to the west of the River Severn
near to Bewdley and it is underlain by Upper
Carboniferous sandstone and shales. We knew
little about the soil when we surveyed the region
initially to examine the multivariate structure of the
population (Oliver, 1984). Six squarekilometreswere
sampled at an intensity of 36 sites/km2 by a random
stratified procedure. We computed sample vario-
grams conventionally for all the variables examined
from these irregularly scattered sites by grouping
them by both the lag and the direction. The vario-
grams in Figure 12 are representative and they
278 MARGARET OLIVER,RICHARD WEBSTERandJOHN GERRARD
TABLEII.Nestedsamplingdesignfor determining
thescaleof spatial
variation
in thesoilof theWyreForest

Stage 1 Centre 22
Centre Centre 33
Centre interval Numberof
Sampling
I I Stage (metres) sampling
points
Stage 2
1 600 9
2 190 18
Stage 3
3 60 36
4 19 72
Stage 4 5 6 108

Stage 5
ISampling points

FIGURE13. Theunbalanced hierarchical

samplingschemeforone
of the ninecentresin the nestedsurveyof the WyreForest

are 'pure nugget'. The plotted points are the semi- 1C

variances, and the horizontal lines are the mean
4
variances to 750 m. These variograms show that all
the variation occurs within the average sampling
interval of 167 m. Thus the sampling points were not
spatially dependent. More intensive sampling was
needed to reveal the spatially dependent variation
and hence its scale. The problem was to judge how
intensive. Changes in the landform that might have
helped were obscured by both tall trees and dense
undergrowth. We sampled, therefore, in two stages:
the first to identify roughly the spatial scale of -
6mJ 3
variation using a nested survey and analysis, and the 4
second a linear survey to determine the variogram FIGURE14. Spatialconfigurationof a set of samplingpointsfrom
more precisely in the conventional way. one centrein the nestedsurvey

Nestedsurvey half of the 72 sites were replicated6 m away. Table II

The nested sampling design for the Wyre Forest
consisted of five stages covering a range of distances
from 6 m to 600 m. The sampling intervals increased
in a geometrical progression to ensure that the
components of variance could be regarded as inde-
pendent. We adapted Youden and Mehlich's (1937)
fully balanced nested sampling design to economize
on sampling effort, and a 25 per cent saving was
achieved by our unbalanceddesign. Figure 13 shows
the structureof the hierarchyof sampling points.
Nine primary centres were located at the inter-
sections of a 600 m square grid, oriented randomly
over the region. From each of these centres another
point was chosen 190 m away in a random direction
to form the second stage. Fromeach of these eighteen
sites the procedurewas repeated for a sample spacing
of 60 m. At the fourth stage the 36 sampling sites
were replicated 19 m away, but at the fifth stage only
lists the stages, the sampling interval and the number
of sampling sites associated with each stage in the
design, and Figure 14 shows the plan of the sampling
sites for one centre.
At each sampling site the soil was examined, and
properties of the soil were recorded from samples
taken from the faces of small pits at four fixed depths
in the soil profile, 0 to 5 cm, 10 to 15 cm, 25 to 30 cm
and 50 to 55 cm. The components of variance were
estimated for each variate by a hierarchicalanalysis
of variance according to the scheme given in Table
III.Webster (1977) and Oliver and Webster (1986a)
describe the derivation of the components of variance
for this unbalanceddesign in more detail.
The components of variancewere accumulated,as
described in Part I. Those for a representative selec-
tion of variates were plotted against distance on a
logarithmic scale to give the first approximation to
 Geostatisticsin physicalgeography:applications
TABLEIII.Derivation
ofcomponents of variance
Source offreedom
Degrees
Stage 1 fi
Stage2 f-f,
Stage 3 f3-f2
Stage m- I f,m- -fm,-2
Stagem N-f,_,
Total N-I
the variogram, Figure 15. These graphs show very
clearly that over 80 per cent of the spatial variation
occurs within 60 m. Stages 1 and 2 account for very
little of the variation,and many of the estimated com-
ponents of variancefor Stage 2 were negative. These
negative estimates suggest that the variation at
190 m is less than would be expected; the most likely
explanation is that they indicate repetition in values
of soil properties at that distance. Negative com-
ponents of variance have also been interpreted as
estimates of zero, i.e. making no contribution to the
variance at that particular stage. There can be no
certainty about the interpretationbecause the confi-
dence limits are wide with so few degrees of freedom.
The residual variance, which represents the unre-
solved variance over distances less than 6 m and any
measurement error, is considerable in view of the
small sampling interval at Stage 5.
To summarize the results for the large number of
variateswe computed their principalcomponents and
then the components of variancefor the firstfive. The
variograms for these leading principal components,
which account for over 70 per cent of the variance
in the sample, are shown in Figure 15 with the com-
ponents of variance represented as percentages. The
first three principalcomponents representthe general
spatialdependence of the individualvariates,whereas
components 4 and 5 largely comprise the residual
short-range variation, i.e. within 6 m. Webster and
Butler(1976) and Nortcliff (1978) also found that the
first two or three principal components represented
the spatially dependent variation well with the short-
range variation being concentrated in the higher
order ones.
The results of the nested survey and analysis
show clearly that most of the spatial variation in the
279
foran unbalanced
design
Parameters
estimated
bymeansquares
a+m
a., m 2 - 1+ '... -+ u ,2a,2
2 + U102 +
a2 + u2 2
m_ +.. + u23a32q+u22,22
ma2+ u3,m- a 2 +...+ U3a32
2+ (Im-lm-
U 2
ar,2
soil of the Wyre Forest occurs within 60 m, and this
provided the basis for designing a sampling plan to
estimate the variogram precisely. The nested survey
provided no information about directional depen-
dence in the variation, and at this stage we needed to
be able to detect any anisotropy if it were present.
Transects are efficient for estimating the variogram
over one order of magnitude of distance to just
beyond the limit of spatial dependence. So we
sampled the soil along transects at 5 m intervals to
ensure that the residualvariancewould be no greater
than before, and by extending them to 100 m we
ensured that we had sufficientpairs of comparisons at
60 m to estimate the range and sill if present. We
aligned the transectsin three directions at 60? to each
other to detect and estimate any anisotropy. The total
transect length in each direction was 500 m to give a
minimum of 100 comparisons at the first lag. In two
directions five 100 m transects,with stratifiedrandom
starting points, were sampled. This sampling plan
ensured fairly even coverage. In the third direction a
single 500 m long transect was sampled. The soil
properties were recorded as for the nested survey.
Samplevariogramswere computed conventionally
for each property in each directionby equation (15), in
Part I. They were sufficiently similarfor the variation
to be judged isotropic and to be pooled for the three
directions. Those for a representative selection of
properties are given in Figure 16. Models were fitted
to the semi-variances by weighted least squares
approximation as described by McBratney and
Webster (1986) using Ross's (1987) Maximum Likeli-
hood Program (MLP).
The variograms of the morphological properties
increase to a sill, indicating that these properties are
second-order stationary within the region. They also
280 MARGARET OLIVER,RICHARD WEBSTERandJOHN GERRARD

5- 600-
Stones ???r??..
Sand
r
4-

400-
a<
3- -

c(
L. / ?
ca
2
200-
,'
....
-/ /#
1 . ^

n 0 I I I I I

400 15
Clay ...... Principal components

300 -
10 1
a)
0 - . -. -
c .*
.c 200 : .,

>
I..?
/.*

./
5
100- /
2
/3
4
5
I I I I I I l I! I
0 6 19 60 190 600 0 6 19 60 190 600
Spacing/m

FIGURE15.Accumulated componentsof varianceplottedagainstdistanceon a logarithmicscaleforthe soil of theWyreForest,(a)stone

content,(b)sandcontent,(c)claycontent,and(d)the firstfiveprincipalcomponents.Theunitsof variancein (a),(b),and(c)are(percent)2

have similar ranges or effective ranges, which
suggests that these variables are controlled by
some common genesis or soil-forming process. The
morphological properties are considerably more
variable in the subsoil than in the topsoil. The expo-
nential model generally provided the best fit, and the
average range of spatial dependence indicated by the
distance parameters of the model variograms is
around 40 m. The firstprincipalcomponent accounts
for most of the spatially dependent variation, and
this is reflected by the slope and sill variance of its
variogram.An exponential model provided the best
fit to the first three principal components. The
average range of spatial dependence for the first five
principalcomponents, which account for 77 per cent
of the variation,is 41-6 m.
 inphysical
Geostatistics applications
geography: 281

Y Y Sand
600

Y
0.05-
pH
0O;, o 0.o06'
pH

0.04- 0 0 0 o

/ A
0.03

A..-, ?;3
AA-
0.02

0.01O

0 0 10 30 50 70
Lag/m

FIGURE16. Sample and model variograms from the linear survey of the soil of the Wyre Forest for (a) stone content, (b) sand content, (c)
clay content, and (d) pH. The units of variance in (a), (b) and (c) are (percent)2

By using this two-stage approachwe were able to
identify the spatial scale of variation precisely for
individual variables and from the leading principal
components an average for the region with very little
existing information.The results of the nested survey
provided an effective framework for designing the
sampling scheme to determine the variograms preci-
sely. With these known we could then sample at an
appropriateintensity to map, either by spatial classifi-
cation or by kriging, and Oliver and Webster (1987)
show the results of applying both procedures to a
part of the Wyre Forest.
282 MARGARET
OLIVER, andJOHNGERRARD
RICHARDWEBSTER
INTERPRETING THE UNDERLYING
FACTORS CONTROLLING SPATIAL
VARIATION
Soil variation
In the Wyre Forest the average range of spatial
dependence for the properties of the soil corresponds
reasonably with the average spacing between the
lithological units of about 50m, indicating the
control of parent materialon the pattern of variation
of the morphological properties of the soil. The
variation of pH, however, is quite different: it is
more variable in the topsoil than in the subsoil, and
the variograms for depths 1 and 3 are unbounded,
Figure 16. They are fitted best by an isotropic power
function of the form
y(h)= c, + wha (4)
where a the exponent, which must lie between 0 and
2, describes the shape of the variogram.The quantity
c0 is the nugget component. These differences
suggest that the variation in pH is not controlled by
parent material. The more intense variation in the
topsoil was interpreted,following the suggestions of
Skeffington(1983), as a consequence of the way rain-
fall reachesthe ground under trees. Much of the water
reaches the soil as stemflow, and so leaching is con-
centrated next to the trunks of trees. This explains
why the pH in the topsoil varies more than that in the
subsoil. However, it does not explain why the vari-
ation is unbounded:this remainsunanswered.
Valleysideslopeprofiles
Geomorphologists have been trying to describe
hillslope profiles accuratelyfor many years, but have
encountered many difficulties. Traditional methods
have attempted either to subdivide profiles into dis-
crete components, or to model the slope by some
form of polynomial function. Methods of profile sub-
division involve partitioning the slope into segments
or elements. A slope segment is a rectilinearportion
of a hillslope profile that differs distinctly in mean
inclination from segments above or below it. More
generally a slope element may be defined as an
approximatelysmoothly curvedportion of a hillslope,
either convex or concave. Two computer-based
methods exist for delimiting such units; the 'best
units' analysis of Young (1971) and the linear
regression method of Ongley (1970). Both methods,
however, involve arbitrarydecisions that limit their
general applicability.An additional criticism of such
methods is that they assume hillslopes are composed
of distinct components ratherthan regarding them as
continuous curves. Cox (1978) also pointed out that
such an analysis will produce boundaries on request,
and these may have little geomorphological signifi-
cance.
An impasse has clearlybeen reachedin the analysis
of hillslope form, and a differentapproachis required
that neither pre-judges the nature of slope form nor
relies on arbitrary decisions. Regionalized variable
theory seems likely to provide a solution since it can
treat slope as a continuous variable.Cox (1983) used
the autocorrelation coefficient, but this measure is
limited to second-order stationarity. The variogram
being less demanding in its assumptions provides
more scope, and so we used it for our analysis of
slopes. Our examples are from Dartmoor.
Dartmoor
Two directly opposing hillslope profiles were
measured in the north-south trending valley of
the River Cowsic in Central Dartmoor where the
underlying rock is well-jointed mega-crystic granite
with primary and secondary joint partings. It is
covered with a variable thickness of soliflucted
material. One hillslope, SLW, faced West and the
other, SLE, East. Both slopes occur in the widest
portion of the valley. The West-facing slope is 801 m
long with a mean angle of 5-9 degrees and the East-
facing one is 492 m long with a mean angle of 7-0
degrees.
Slope angles were measured with an inclinometer
to the nearest degree over consecutive 3 m lengths
orthogonal to the contours. It is already well-estab-
lished that the distance over which slope angle is
measured affects the analysis of slope form (Gerrard
1978, Gerrardand Robinson 1971). Furthermore,in
Part I we stressed that the variogram is scale-
dependent. Thus in addition the E-facing slope was
also measured over 1-5 m units to examine the effect
of changing the support of the sample on the
interpretationof slope form.
Variogramswere computed from the slope data for
both hillslopes and models were fitted using MLP
(Ross, 1987), Figure 17a, b, and c. These indicate
several important spatial characteristics of these
slopes. A periodic model without damping provided
the best fit in the least squares sense to all the
variograms.The variogramsfor the long transectson
both slopes appear to increase without bounds, and
so in addition to the periodic function we have added
a power term to describe them. The full model is
/27rh)
=s27snh\
y(h)=c + cl cos- +C2 sin
- + c3h, (5)
 inphysical
Geostatistics geography:
applications 283
3.5- forthe phaseangleand
*.
CM 3.0 A = cl/cosp
a)
a0
2.5
0)
-0
fortheamplitude.Theparameters of thesemodelsare
2.0 "-
given in TableIV.
?^
(a)

i I I
1
Note thatthismodelis authorizedfor one dimen-
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Lag/m
sion only. It describesa patternof variationthat
8
repeatsitself regularly.We interpretedthe periodic
7 modelasindicatingthepresenceof terracesseparated
6
* X
by a moresteeplyslopingsectionwhicharerepeated
a)
0)
fairlyregularlyalong the slope transects.Figure17a
-
5 gives the variogramfor the West-facingslope,SLW.
4 (b) The wavelengthof the periodicfunctionis 25-2m
whichrepresentsthe averagerepeatdistancein the
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Lag/m gradient.Thiswas not evidentfromGerrard's (1982)
10- earlieranalyses,Figure18a.The fairlysmoothsmall
9 terracesseparatedby roughermore steeply sloping
N
8
sectionsarediscernibleon the graphsof slope angle
00
(1)
cn 7
againstdistance(Figs.18a,b andc),but they aretoo
- a
V1
erraticand ill-definedto estimatethe periodicityby
C
eye. The amplitudeof the model is modest for this
5 (C) slope becausethe contrastsin slope are fairlysmall.
The AkaikeInformationCriterionfor the periodic
0 20 40 60 Lag/m
model is largerthan that for the linearmodel (the
FIGURE17. Experimentaland model variogramsfor hillslope
modelthatfittedthenextbestin termsof theresidual
measurements in the CowsicValley,Dartmoor(a)SLWmeasured sumof squares).This demonstratesthe effectof the
over 3 m intervals,(b)SLEImeasuredover 3 m intervals,and (c) addedcomplexityof thismodel.Itwasworthwhilein
SLE2measuredover 1-5m intervals thisinstance,however,sincethemodelconfirmedour
fieldobservationsandimprovedinterpretation.
Figure 17b gives the variogramand model for
wherecois the nugget variance,r is the wavelength, slope angleof the East-facingslope,SLEI,measured
over a length of 3 m intervals.The AkaikeInfor-
and c3 is the coefficient of the power term. The mationCriterionfor the periodicmodelis muchless
coefficientsof the cosineandthe sineterms,cl andc2, thanforthe linearmodel(thenext best fittingmodel)
definethe amplitudeandthe phaseangleof the sinu-
soidalcomponentof the variogram.Thiscomponent justifyingits greatercomplexity.This slope is also
canbe expressedin the form
characterized by a regularrepetitionof features,but
at 58 m whichis muchlargerthanthatfor the West-
Y=A cos (-
facingslope. The terracesare fairlysmoothwith an
p), (6) averageslope of 8? to 9? and they are separatedby
more irregularand steeply sloping sections. The
where A is the amplitude and (p is the phase angle.
amplitudeof the modelis also muchlargerthanthat
From trigonometry this can be rewritten as for the West-facingslope:the contrastsare greater
andtheterracesaremoreclearlydefinedon thisslope.
Y=A coso cos0+ A sin(psinO. (7) Thisexpressesquantitativelythe impressionsgained
by comparingthe graphsof slopeprofile.
This has the same form as equation (5) in which The model variogramsfor both slopes show a
A cos(pequals cl and A sin( equals c2.Since we know nuggeteffect,whichwe interpreted in PartI as arising
cl and c2from fitting the model we can solve the two from measurementerror,spatiallydependentvari-
equations in the two unknowns, giving: ation over distancesless thanthe samplinginterval
andpurelyrandomvariation.In theseexamplesonly
(p= arctan (c2/c1) variation within the support is significant.This
 reuait ftesoewihntespot fwt h au

284 MARGARET OLIVER,RICHARDWEBSTERandJOHN GERRARD

20 -
16 -
SL W
12- ? ?

10 20 30 40 50 60 270 80 90 10
20- S
16 -
12-
* ? ? ?- *
8 . . ***.*...... * *. e . .. .. . *. * *.*
20-
4- ?

110 20 30 10 10 160 70 80 90 200

cont.

16-
12-

1 I l *
e ?e
? .. ?. ?

210 220 230 240 250 260 270

LO 4-
4
12-
FIG 8. Spea . le a? p i? o e i h V ey

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

20- --
20
20 con t.
0 16-
16-
16-
t 12-.
el . ? ?
FIGURe Selangl i

2110 10 130 o40 150 160

SL E2

20- ?c sv pont frmtebseo th sopcont.

16-

4-

110 120 130 140 150 160 1;0 180 190 200

slope measurement. This is particularly useful since We also measured slope angle over 15 m intervals

Successive
pointstrorn thebase of the s[opet

FIUE1.Soeageaantpsiinfrhlsoemaueet i h oscVle,Drmo a)SWmaue

vr3mitras
(b L1 maue
vr3mitras,ad()SE 1.5 nevl
esrdoe
iregularityo
eess of tSeuseoie ponhfo bopethe of the sope

sugetog-thtteng
vainc t fo aSLs23wihissalcmae
hes fetqatfe h
neso o f 5 .4frSE.
slop mesreet
Thi is pat u cs s fuualic We als mesue sl o p a ovr n l mnevl
gemrhooit hav fontdfiutt
uniyo
hat-aigsoe
haiga
ntoe
198.I
roughness~? (Pros hsar
prvoul ie nFgreIc eidi oe ihu
example t h tw slp h qut
aeifrnugtdmigaanprvdstebsi.Tewvlnt
v
geomorphologists have found it difficult to quantify on the East-facing slope. The variogram and its model

roughness previously (Parsons, 1978). In this are given in Figure 17c. A periodic model without
example the two slopes have quite different nugget damping again provides the best fit. The wavelength
 Geostatisticsin physicalgeography:applications 285
TABLEIV.Parameter
estimatesof theperiodic
modelsfittedto variograms
of theslopes

Variances

Co C, c2 Wavelength Gradient Exponent Amplitude Phase Akaike

r(m) c3 a (degrees)2 radians Information
Slope (degrees)2 (degrees)/m Criterion

SLW 2-3042 -0-1013 0-1498 25-23 0-00318 1-205 0-1013 0-4484 44-45 (38-42)*
SLE1 5-4607 -0-5889 -1-0440 54-32 0-0137 1 0-7913 0-6589 59-11 (72-01)*
SLE2 6-8824 -0-7084 -0-7084 65-18 - 0-7084 0

Note: *The value in brackets is the Akaike Information Criterion for the linear model

suggests repetition of the features on average every and as Oliver and Webster (1986b) showed, modell-
62 m, which compares closely with the results for the ing the variogram is quite as effective in describing
3 m spacing. The nugget variance of 6-9 is slightly the variation quantitatively.
larger than that for the same slope measured over a
length of 3 m. This indicates the effect of the size of CONCLUSIONS
the support on the measurement. The shorter the
distance over which the slope is measured, i.e. the The examples described above illustrateseveral ways
smaller the support, the greater the effect of inter- in which regionalized variable theory can be used
vening irregularities resulting in a larger nugget profitablyin physical geography. The principalaim in
variance. In other words the larger the support the mining was the estimation of concentrations of metal
greater the smoothing effect. in ores and of mineralreserves. It is equally applicable
We think that the periodic step-like features for estimating the thickness of surficial deposits,
result from periglacialsolifluction,and that the major soil properties, and meteorological phenomena, for
joints in the granite have a strong control on their example. Furthermore, the theory can be used to
spacing. The difference between opposing valley plan rational sampling schemes, and a geostatistical
sides possibly arose because of differences in the analysis, by describing quantitatively the underlying
micro-climate. The East-facing slope is a leeward structureof variation,may help us to understandthat
slope. It would have had more snow on it resulting structure.
in more meltwater to penetratejoints thereby increas-
ing hydraulic pressures in the joint system and ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
weathering, and enhancing solifluction during the We thank Mrs
late Pleistocene. This could explain the larger, better Joyce Munden and Mrs JeanDowling
for preparingthe figures, and Mrs Joyce Munden for
developed features on this slope.
help with the computing.
Spatial analysis of this kind can characterize the
forms of slopes and provide quantities by which
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