Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?

Author(s): Wallace S. Broecker

Source: Science, New Series, Vol. 189, No. 4201 (Aug. 8, 1975), pp. 460-463
Published by: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1740491
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 of theturquoisebeadsourcearea;ppm,partspermillion.
Table1.Dataforthedetermination terns will also change with time because of
Snaketown Himalaya political and economic pressures, or the
Element
Element Group Group Unclassi- Group
Crescent
Groupscent depletion of a resource procurement area.
A B fled A B Chemical analysis of a commonly utilized
Trace element data (ppm) material such as turquoise is one method
Co 1.67 1.78 1.95 1.30 1.78 1003.0 of detecting, or monitoring, these changes.
Cr 1.66 1.44 1.20 1.54 2.30 67.3 Further identification of source areas uti-
Eu 0.26 0.32 0.28 0.27 0.63 * lized by particular cultural groups should
Sb 2.10 2.90 1.43 1.76 2.10 4.66
Sc 35.1 101.5 15.1 36.2 106.4 65.3 provide additional information on the na-
Ta * * * * * 326.0 ture of prehistoric resource acquisition and
exchange routes.
Similaritycoefficients ANNE COLBERG SIGLEO
Snaketown
GroupA 1.000 Department of Geosciences,
GroupB .825 1.000 University ofA rizona,
Unclassified .544 .337 1.000 Tucson 85721
Himalaya
GroupA .946 .808 .613 1.000 References and Notes
GroupB .861 .991 .565 .840 1.000 1. The chemical formula for turquoise is
Crescent .143 .177 .092 .208 .101 1.000 CuAI6(PO4)4(OH)8? 4H20.
2. A. M. C. Sigleo, thesis, University of New Mexico
*Notdetected. (1970).
3. These are Mineral Park, Canyon Creek, and
Courtland, Arizona; Miami, Morenci, and Bisbee
have no reported prehistoric workings.
4. E. W. Haury, Kiva 31, 1 (1965).
limits for the Himalaya-Snaketown tur- from Snaketown A and Himalaya A, and 5. J. Murdoch and R. W. Webb, Calif. Div. Mines
Geol. Bull. No. 189 (1966).
quoise, but were present in many of the between Snaketown B and Himalaya B. 6. R. A. Schmitt, T. A. Linn, Jr., W. Wakita, Radio-
The Crescent sample is clearly unrelated. chim. Acta 13, 200 (1970); G. E. Gordon, K.
other samples. These basic differences Randle, G. G. Goles, J. B. Corliss, M. H. Beeson,
served to distinguish the California source The similarity coefficients, then, sub- S. S. Oxley, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 32, 369
area from other localities by simple exam- stantiated the conclusion that trace ele- (1968).
7. F. J. Flanagan, Geochim. Cosmochim, Acta 37,
ination of the data. ment patterns for the Snaketown beads 1189(1973).
8. G. A. Borchardt, P. J. Aruscavage, H. T. Millard,
The Snaketown beads fell into two correlated with that of turquoise from the Jr., J. Sediment. Petrol. 42, 301 (1972).
9. The similarity coefficient
groups of five and seven samples each, Himilaya group of mines near Halloron
based on Sc contents of 35 ppm (group A) Springs, but not with the data from the 23 dab = Z Rin
and 100 ppm (group B), with 1 sample un- other mines analyzed. The 13 turquoise
where Ri = Xa/Xib if Xib > Xia; or Xib/Xia if
classified. The data for samples from the beads, however, represent only a portion Xia > Xb; Xia = the content of element i in sample
a; Xib = content of element i in b; and n
Himalaya mine also fell into the same two of the turquoise from the site. Since the number of elements.
sample

groups, emphasizing the need for multiple
samples from each geographic source area.
In order to characterize the mine areas
statistically, it was necessary to compare
the concentrations of all trace elements si-
multaneously. The multivariate statistic
devised by Borchardt et al. (8), in which the
ratio of each element concentration in a
pair of samples is summed and divided by
the number of elements, was found to be
the most useful for these data (9). The
coefficients thus obtained are representa-
tive of the degree of similarity, or dis-
similarity, between two or more samples.
That is, the coefficients are a means of
quantifying the degree of correlation based
on sample analytical data. Perfect sim-
ilarity results in a value of 1.0, and large
differences result in coefficients near zero.
Borchardt et al. determined by replicate
analyses that coefficients above .800 were
indicative of an accurate correlation at the
95 percent confidence level. Conversely,
values below .560 indicated that a pair of
samples probably were not from the same
site.
Table 1 shows the correlation coefficient
matrix for the two Snaketown groups, the
unclassified bead, the two Himalaya mine
groups, and for the Crescent mine in Ne-
vada. On the basis of Borchardt's criterion,
there is good correlation between samples
460
turquoise was widely traded in the South- 10. I thank G. W. Nelson and M. E. Wacks for help
with the analytical aspects of this research; the
west, it is possible that other sources may Arizona State Museum, Tucson, for the artifacts;
by represented in other artifacts from Geodata Systems, Inc., for permission to collect
turquoise samples on their property; and G. A.
Snaketown. Borchardt for the use of his similarity coefficient
Cultures and cultural ties are constantly program.
changing, and it is expected that trade pat- 7 March 1975;revised20 May 1975.
Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a
Pronounced Global Warming?
Abstract. If man-made dust is unimportant as a major cause of climatic change, then a
strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give
way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide. By analogy with similar events
in the past, the natural climatic cooling which, since 1940, has more than compensated
for the carbon dioxide effect, will soon bottom out. Once this happens, the exponential
rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor
and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond
the limits experienced during the last 1000 years.
The fact that the mean global temper- '8O record in the Greenland ice core (I)
ature has been falling over the past several strongly suggests that the present cooling
decades has led observers to discount the is one of a long series of similar natural cli-
warming effect of the CO2 produced by the matic fluctuations. This cooling has, over
burning of chemical fuels. In this report I the last three decades, more than com-
present an argument to show that this pensated for the warming effect produced
complacency may not be warranted. It is by the CO2 released into the atmosphere as
possible that we are on the brink of a sev- a by-product of chemical fuel combustion.
eral-decades-long period of rapid warming. By analogy with similar events in the past,
Briefly, the argument runs as follows. The the present natural cooling will, however,
SCIENCE, VOL. 189
bottom out during the next decade or so. Table 1. Reconstructionand predictionof atmosphericCO2contentsbased on fuel consumption
Once this happens, the CO2 effect will tend data.
to become a significant factor and by the Excess Excess Excess CO2 Global
Chemical atmo- atmo- atmo- content
first decade of the next century we may ex- temper-
Year f spheric spheric spheric of the ature
perience global temperatures warmer than CO CO2 CO2 atmospheret
The remainder co22* increaset
any in the last 1000 years. (x 106 g) (x 10'6g) (%) (ppm) (ppm) (?C)
of this report will be devoted to the elabo-
1.9 0.9 2 295 0.02
ration of the assumptions used in con- 1900 3.8
3.1 1.4 4 297 .04
1910 6.3
structing the curves shown in Fig. 1 which 1920 9.7 4.8 2.2 6 299 .07
displays this projection. 1930 13.6 6.8 3.1 9 302 .09
Of the climatic effects induced by man, 1940 17.9 8.9 4.1 12 305 .11
1950 23.3 11.6 5.3 16 309 .15
only that for CO2 can be conclusively dem- 1960 31.2 15.6 7.2 21 314? .21
onstrated to be globally significant. It is 1970 44.0 22.0 10.2 29 322? .29
difficult to determine the significance of the 198011 63 31 14 42 335 .42
next most important climatic effect in- 199011 88 44 20 58 351 .58
duced by man, "dust," because of uncer- 200011 121 60 28 80 373 .80
167 83 38 110 403 1.10
tainties with regard to the amount, the op- 201011
tical properties, and the distribution of *On the assumptionthat 50 percentof the CO2producedby the burningof fuel remainsin the atmosphere.
man-made particles (2, 3). Man-made heat tThe preindustrial atmosphericpartialpressureof CO2is assumedto be 293 ppm. tAssumesa 0.3?Cglobal
temperatureincreasefor each 10 percentrisein the atmosphericCO2content. ?Valueobservedon Hawaiifor
currently runs a poor third to CO2 and 1960, ppm; 314 value for 1970,322ppm(8). 11Post-1972growthratetakento be 3 percentperyear.
dust. Its effects will, for at least a few dec-
ades, remain entirely local (4). In this re-
port only the interaction of the CO2 effect will "saturate" over an ever greater por- al. suggest that uptake by the sea can ac-
and natural climatic change is considered. tion of the band. Rasool and Schneider (3) count for the removal of 35 - 10 percent
As other anthropogenic effects are shown point out that the temperature increases as of the CO2 produced (9). Other investiga-
to be significant and as means to quan- the logarithm of the atmospheric CO2 con- tors (10), using oceanic mixing models
titatively predict their future influence on tent. Thus, if doubling of the CO2 content which neglect short-term transfer between
global temperatures are developed, they raises the temperature by 2.40C, then a 10 the surface ocean and the main oceanic
can be included in models such as this. percent increase in the CO2 content will thermocline, conclude that considerably
Meanwhile it is important to consider the raise the temperature by 0.32?C. smaller fractions of the CO2 have gone into
potential impact of the two causes of With respect to the amounts of CO2 to the ocean. In order to match the observed
change for which we do have quantitative be expected in the atmosphere, we are in a rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2
information. position to make fairly accurate estimates. content, these authors are required to put
A number of people have made esti- Measurements carried out by Keeling and what I consider to be an inordinately large
mates of the change in global temperature his co-workers on the island of Hawaii part of the CO2 into the terrestrial bio-
that would result if the atmospheric CO2 over the past 15 years suggest that the CO2 sphere. If the ocean is currently the main
content were to double. These estimates content of the atmosphere rose an average sink for the "missing" CO2, the models
range from 0.8? to 3.6?C. Manabe and of 0.7 part per million (ppm) per year suggest that, if our CO2 production contin-
Wetherald's value (5) of 2.40C, based on a from 1958 to 1972 (8). Had all the CO2 ues to increase at the rate of several per-
model assuming fixed relative humidity generated by the burning of chemical fuels cent per year, the fraction of this CO2 re-
and cloudiness, is the most widely used. remained in the atmosphere, the rate of in- maining in the atmosphere will remain
The difference between this estimate and crease in the atmospheric CO2 content nearly constant over the next several dec-
that of 0.80C by Rasool and Schneider (3) should have been about 1.5 ppm/year. ades (9). If, on the other hand, a major
has been largely resolved. When an im- Thus, about half of the CO2 added to the fraction of the chemical fuel CO2 is being
proved infrared radiation scheme is in- atmosphere is seemingly being removed to removed to the terrestrial biosphere, we
troduced into the Manabe-Wetherald cal- the sea (through combination with the are not in as good a position to state how
culation, the result drops to 1.9?C (6). C032- ion) and to the terrestrial biosphere the distribution coefficient between the at-
However, Manabe and Wetherald (6) have (through enhanced photosynthesis). Calcu- mosphere and other reservoirs will change
suggested, on the basis of some prelimi- lations based on the model of Broecker et with time. On the time scale of a few dec-
nary three-dimensional calculations, that
the effect in polar regions is much larger 1.2 _
than for the "typical" atmospheric col-
umn. This polar amplification leads to an
enhancement of the global effect, bringing
ia 0.8
the value up to somewhat above 2.40C. Al- Fig. 1. Curves for the global C02 effect plus /
though surprises may yet be in store for us temperaturechange due to 0 _~- ~ Camp Centurycycles
when larger computers and a better knowl- chemical fuel CO2, natural o
u
climatic cycles, and the sum
edge of cloud physics allow the next stage of the two effects. The mea-
0.4
Meteorological '/ \ ,
/
/
of the modeling to be accomplished, the sured temperature anomaly ~_ recordsx
magnitude of the CO2 effect has probably for successive 5-year means a ^
from meteorological records 0.0o
,
been pinned down to within a factor of 2 to /
last
over the centuryis given C02effect 1 //
4(7). for comparison.
The response of the global temperature /, CampCentury
cycles
to the atmospheric CO2 content is not lin- -0.4
I I I
ear. As the CO2 content of the atmosphere 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
rises, the absorption of infrared radiation Year
8 AUGUST 1975 461
 terms of the ratio of 180 to 160 in the snow 0
0 which falls. Because of the polar amplifica- L-

tion of global climatic changes [noted both

100 in this century's meteorological records
3 < v 100
200 C (12) and in models (6)], a strong signal
) emerges from the regional noise. Measure- 35~_ - 9
300 CL ments on snow generated over a range of B
a polar temperatures show that for each I?C - 200
1600
400 ' Z5t _-8
of cooling the O80 content of the precipita- 2q s2
1500
tion drops by about 0.7 per mil (13). The
500 ~ time scale is obtained by extrapolation of I ,%
-
i UU
1400 > the accumulation rates established by I I=I 6 C
a)
(A
600 counting seasonal couplets (14). The wide- 5 0)
Q)
1300 ly quoted results of Dansgaard and his co- a}
workers of measurements on the Camp 400 ,
a)
1200 __ Century core (1) are reproduced in Fig. 2. .0
-30 -29 -28
Clearly the fluctuation in global tempera- 35
a)
3180 (per mil) ture documented by meteorological obser-
I 500
--- >-
Fig. 2. Difference(permil) betweenthe 180/160 vations over the last century is not unique;
40
ratio in decade compositesof Greenland ice similar changes have occurred in a more or
from the Camp Centurysite and me,an ocean less regular fashion throughout the last
water as obtainedby Dansgaardand his co- 1000 years. Dansgaard and his co-workers 600
workers(1). A decreaseof 1 per mil iin the O80
content correspondsto a 1.5?C dr(p in air have shown by power spectral techniques
'--^^^^--2
temperature. The curveon the left is thhesimula- that cycles of 80 and 180 years appear in
tion of the isotopecurveobtainedby c:ombining this record. The model curve to the left of 700
sinusoidalcurves with periods of 80 and 180 the isotopic curve (Fig. 2) is their best fit to
years. the data based on the use of only 80- and
180-year cycles. I I I
ades, however, there is no reason teo believe The amplitude of the last half "cycle" in -30 -29 -28
that it will change greatly. Greenland (1900 to 1940) as recorded in
The global temperature increase due to the ice is about the same as that recorded 6180 (per mil)
CO2 in Fig. 1 is calculated on the basis of by meteorological observations (both give Fig. 3. Spacings between warm maxima and
the following assumptions: (i) 50 p<ercentof about 1.5?C warming) (2, 3). Also the ice cold minima for the "smoothed" Camp Century
ice core '80 curve.
the CO2 generated by the burning (of chem- core record is roughly in phase with the
ical fuels has in the past and wil11in the global change recorded meteorologically.
near future remain in the atmosplhere; (ii) Consistent with the Manabe-Wetherald match to the global temperature curve for
the United Nations fuel consumpttion esti- model (6), the amplitude of the temper- the last century (that is, a fourfold reduc-
mates are used to 1960 (11); betwe,en 1960 ature change in the polar region is several tion due to polar amplification is made).
and 1975 a growth rate of 4.5 percent per times larger than the global average. The resultant curve obtained by com-
year is used, and from 1975 on a 3 percent The curve of natural fluctuations drawn bining the CO2 effect with the simulated
growth rate is predicted; (iii) for each 10 in Fig. 1 was obtained as follows. The pat- natural curve shows dramatically what will
percent increase in the atmospheric CO2 tern of the fluctuations is that obtained by happen if the natural cooling trend bot-
content the mean global temperatture in- Dansgaard and his co-workers (1), assum- toms out and swings into the next warming
creases by 0.3?C. These calculations are ing that the 80- and 180-year periods domi- phase according to the schedule postulated
summarized in Table 1. nate the natural record. The amplitude of here. Global temperature would begin a
Meteorological records of the mean the curve is reduced so that, when summed dramatic rise which would continue for
global temperature are adequate o)nly over with the CO2 effect, it yields a reasonable about four decades (that is, half the 80-
the last century. The mean global tempera- year cycle). This warming would by the
ture (successive 5-year means) (obtained year 2000 bring average global temper-
from these records by Mitchell (172) is giv- Table 2. Projectionsbased on an analogy to atures beyond the range experienced dur-
en in Fig. 1. From this record ale)ne little individualCamp Centurycycles over the last ing the last 1000 years. Until chemical fuel
can be said about the causes of climatic 800 years. consumption is dramatically reduced,
fluctuations. It is too short and m'ay be in- Warm Years to Projected date global temperatures would continue to
fluenced by pollution. Obtaining compar- peak next cold for next rise. Future natural cycles would merely
able information from historic ancI natural No.* minimum* cold minimum modulate this ever-steepening rise (40-year
records for previous centuries hass proved 1 40 1980 periods of more rapid increase followed by
very difficult. There is no simple relation 2 25 1965 40-year periods of less rapid increase).
between the indices used and the ttempera- 3 40 1980
4 35 1975 Although the details of the argument
ture, and regional noise tends to rnask the 5 55 1995 presented here depend largely on the re-
global picture. In my estimation the only 6 30 1970 sults of Dansgaard et al. (1), simulation of
existing record which may give a p)ictureof 7 25 1965 the Camp Century cycles, the sense of the
the natural fluctuations in global tLempera- 8 35 1975 argument, is not dependent on these re-
ture over the last 1000 years is thiat from 9 35 1975 sults. As shown in Fig. 3 and Table 2, a
the ice core taken at Camp Ce]ntury in Mean 35 1975 similar conclusion with regard to the tim-
Simulationt 50 1990
northwestern Greenland. The air ttempera- ing of the forthcoming natural minima
ture over this site is being reccorded in *SeeFig.3. tSee Fig.2. would be reached by analogy with almost
462 SCIENCE, VOL. 189
any portion of the Greenland record over 7. S. H. Schneider, J. A tmos. Sci., in press. D.C., 1973), p. 21; R. Bacastow and C. D. Keeling,
8. C. A. Ekdahl, Jr., and C. D. Keeling, in Carbon ibid., p. 86..
the last 700 years. If anything, the simula- and the Biosphere, G. M. Woodwell and E. V. Pe- 11. United Nations, World Energy Supplies Statistical
tion puts the next minimum farther into can, Eds. (Technical Information Center, Office of Papers, Series J (United Nations, New York,
Information Services, U.S. Atomic Energy Com- 1950-1959).
the future than would estimates based mission, Washington, D.C., 1973), p. 51. 12. J. M. Mitchell, Arid Zone Monograph 20
9. W. S. Broecker, Y.-H. Li, T.-H. Peng, in Impinge- (UNESCO, Paris, 1963), pp. 161-181.
strictly on analogies with previous "cy- ment of Man on the Oceans, D. W. Hood, Ed. 13. W. Dansgaard, Tellus 16, 436 (1964); L. Merlivat
cles." Thus, whereas the exact date of the (Wiley, New York, 1971), p. 287. and C. Lorius, Recherche (Paris) 4 (No. 34), 457
minimum shown in the extended natural 10. B. Bolin and E. Eriksson, in The Atmosphere and (1973).
the Sea in Motion, Rossby Memorial Volume, B. 14. S. J. Johnsen, W. Dansgaard, H. B. Clausen, C. C.
climate curve (Fig. 1) is uncertain, its oc- Bolin, Ed. (Rockefeller Institute Press, New York, Langway, Jr., Nature (Lond.) 235, 429 (1972).
1959), p. 130; L. Machta, in The Changing Chem- 15. Conversations with Steve Schneider of the Nation-
currence in the next decade is probable. istry of the Oceans, Proceedings of the 20th Nobel al Center for Atmospheric Research were very
The rate of warming beyond the minimum Symposium, D. Dryssen and D. Jagner, Eds. helpful in straightening out questions I had with
(Wiley, New York, 1972), p. 121; C. D. Keeling, in regard to varying estimates of the effects of CO2
is also open to question. As the CO2 effect Chemistry of the Lower Atmosphere, S. I. Rasool, and dust. This work was supported by contract
will dominate, the uncertainty here lies Ed. (Plenum, New York, 1973), chap. 6; L. Mach- AT(I 1-1)2185 with the U.S. Atomic Energy Com-
ta, in Carbon and the Biosphere, G. M. Wood- mission. This is contribution No. 2248 from the
mainly in the estimates of future chemical well and E. V. Pecan, Eds. (Technical Infor- Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory.
mation Center, Office of Information Service,
fuel use and in the magnitude of the warm- U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Washington, 10 March 1975; revised 7 May 1975
ing per unit of excess atmospheric CO2.
The major point of the argument is that
over the past 30 years the warming trend
due to CO2 has been more than countered
Chlorinated Hydrocarbon Pollutants and Photosynthesis
by a natural cooling. This compensation
cannot long continue both because of the of Marine
Phytoplankton: A Reassessment
rapid growth of the CO2 effect and because
the natural cooling will almost certainly Abstract. The chlorinated hydrocarbons DDT and PCB's (polychlorinated biphenyls),
soon bottom out. We may be in for a cli- ubiquitous pollutants of the marine environment, have been observed to reduce the cell
matic surprise. The onset of the era of division rate of marine phytoplankton, thereby indirectly reducing the total photosyn-
CO2-induced warming may be much more thetic carbonfixation in treated cultures. The photosynthetic capacity of each cell was not
dramatic than in the absence of natural cli- affected. Total marine photosynthesis will likely remain undiminished by these com-
matic variations. pounds, although alterations in phytoplankton communities through selective toxicity
The agricultural consequences of this could affect herbivorepopulations.
ensuing warming are not obvious (neither
are the implications to global sea level). A Several persistent and ubiquitous chlori- of Coccolithus huxleyi and the two dia-
knowledge of the mean global temperature nated hydrocarbon pollutants of the ma- toms is reportedly reduced by DDT (2, 3).
tells us little about the rainfall patterns in rine environment, most notably PCB's Culture conditions and procedures have
the chief grain-producing regions. There is (polychlorinated biphenyls) and DDT been described elsewhere (8). Methanolic
little doubt, however, that this gradual [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)eth- solutions of PCB's (Aroclor 1254) or DDT
warming will lead to changes in the pattern ane], can reduce the growth rate (1, 2) and were injected (1) into the cell suspensions
of global precipitation. Our efforts to un- have been reported to reduce photosynthe- at time zero to give initial PCB concentra-
derstand and eventually to predict these sis (2-4) in some marine phytoplankton tions of 10 ug/liter (parts per billion) and
changes must be redoubled. cultures. The decrease in carbon fixation DDT concentrations of 50 ppb in the medi-
WALLACES. BROECKER observed in treated cultures (2-4), as mea- um. Equal volumes of methanol were add-
Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory sured by the incorporation of '4C-labeled ed to the control cultures (9). These organ-
and Department of Geological Sciences, bicarbonate, could have resulted from an ochlorine compounds, at similar concen-
Columbia University, inhibition of the photosynthetic process it- trations (or doses per cell), have been re-
Palisades, New York 10964 self, or it may have been due to a depressed ported to substantially depress the net
References and Notes
growth rate, that is, fewer cells photo- carbon fixation in monocultures of these
1. W. Dansgaard, S. J. Johnson, H. B. Clausen, C. C.
synthesizing in treated than in control cul- algal species (2, 3). At 48 hours, 1 ml of
Langway, Jr., in Late Cenozoic Glacial Ages, K. tures. medium was removed from each tube so
K. Turekian, Ed. (Yale Univ. Press, New Haven, I conducted an experiment to determine that cell counts could be determined (10),
Conn., 1971), p. 37; W. Dansgaard, S. J. Johnsen,
H. B. Clausen, N. Gundestrup, Medd. Gr0nland whether algal photosynthesis on a per cell 0.2 uc of ['4C]NaHCO3 was added (11),
197 (No. 2), 1(1973). as well as on a per culture basis, was and the cultures were incubated as before
2. S. H. Schneider and W. W. Kellogg, in Chemistry basis,
of the Lower Atmosphere, S. I. Rasool, Ed. (Ple- affected by PCB's or DDT. The organ- for about 5 hours. The same procedure was
num, New York, 1973), p. 203; G. Yamamoto and ochlorine concentrations used were above also carried out for dark controls. The cells
M. Tanaka, J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1405 (1972); R. A.
Bryson, Weatherwise 21, 56 (1968); Climatic Mod- those found in natural waters (5); no at- were then gently filtered through 0.8- tm
ification by Air Pollution, II. The Sahelian Effect
(Institute for Environmental Studies, University of tempt was made to determine the toxicity Millipore filters and washed with filtered
Wisconsin, Madison, 1973); Science 184, 753 of environmentally realistic concentrations seawater; the radioactivity of the filters
(1974); J. M. Mitchell, Jr., in Global Effects of En-
vironmental Pollution, S. F. Singer, Ed. (Reidel, of these compounds, as was done elsewhere was counted in a liquid scintillation coun-
Dordrecht, Netherlands, and Springer-Verlag, (6). The
New York, 1968); in Man's Impact on the Climate, purpose of this study was to estab- ter (Tri-Carb, Packard). The entire experi-
W. H. Matthews, W. W. Kellogg, G. D. Robinson, lish whether, in algae, photosynthetic car- ment was repeated with the two diatom
Eds. (MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1971), pp.
133 and 167; W. W. Kellogg and S. H. Schneider, bon fixation itself is inhibited or whether species.
Science 186, 1163 (1974). just growth is affected by these chemicals. Table 1 presents the 48-hour cell counts,
3. S. I. Rasool and S. H. Schneider, Science 173, 138
(1971). The three algal species studied (7) were photosynthetic carbon fixation per culture,
4. S. H. Schneider and R. D. Dennett, Ambio 4, 65 selected on the basis of their sensitivity to and carbon uptake per cell (a). The dark
(1975).
5. S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald, J. A tmos. Sci. 24 chlorinated hydrocarbons: the growth of uptake of 14C, which varied with each spe-
786 (1967).
6. S. Manabe, in Man's Impact on the Climate, W. Thalassiosira pseudonana and Skeleto- cies (being 2 percent of the illuminated T.
H. Matthews, W. W. Kellogg, G. D. Robinson, nema costatum, common marine diatoms, pseudonana '4C uptake, less than 1 percent
Eds. (MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1971), p. 238;
S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald, J. Atmos. Sci. is affected by PCB's and DDT (1), and with S. costatum, and 10 percent with C.
32,3(1975). photosynthetic carbon fixation in cultures huxleyi), was subtracted from the raw
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