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2.1 Introduction
2.2 Basic Elements of Transportation Planning
2.3 Urban Transportation Planning
2.4 Forecast of Future Travel Demand (Model Building &
Forecasting)
2.4.1 Trip Generation
2.4.2 Trip distribution
2.4.3 Modal – Split (pg. 552)
2.4.4 Trip Assignment
2.5 Transportation Systems Management (TSM)

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 At the end of this chapter, students should be able to:

1.Forecast future trip generated, the distribution, mode

choice and assignment.
2.Describe potential transportation system management

Introduction

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• Transportation planning is a process that intents to furnish
unbiased information about the effects that the proposed
transportation project will have on the community and its
expected users.
• Transportation planning is concerned with the development
of a transportation plan for an urban area or for an entire
state.
• Involves generating and comparing alternatives plan,
evaluating the social, economic and environmental impacts of
proposed transportation action with appropriate
participation of citizens, political representatives and public
agencies.
• Planning is needed to safe time and cost (economics).
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• Some of factors to justify a transportation

project are:
• Improvements in traffic flow & safety;
• Savings in energy consumption & travel time;
• Economic growth;
• Increased accessibility

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• Planning Concepts –
i)Forward planning (exp.: shopping area & pedestrian scheme)
ii)Backward planning (exp.: Putrajaya administrative township)

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• Planning Approaches -
a)Traffic Functional:  based on demand
(Esp. When traffic ↑, built more lanes)
• Normally by capital investment on physical development to
accommodate more traffic demand of road space.
• The only main consideration or parameter being considered by
this approach is traffic volume.

b) Cyclic or system approach:  based on land-use

• It involve transport and land-use.
• Appreciate the potential of transport to shape urban
environment by influencing accessibility of locations within urban
area. Thus, land-use pattern of a town can be defined for some
future date, then the associated traffic pattern could also be
determined and a suitable transport system designed to fit it. 10

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 • Methodologies of transportation study survey will vary
in detail but most transportation surveys that are
based on land-use activities tend to be divided into 3
major sub-divisions:

• Stage 1: Transportation survey – inventory, land-use activities

& social-economic factors
• Stage 2: Production of Mathematical model – develop trips
model from Stage 1 data
• Stage 3: Prediction future transportation needs and evaluate
alternatives transportation plans.

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Basic Elements of
Transportation Planning

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• In general, the transportation planning process
comprises 7 basic elements. They are interrelated
and not necessarily carried out sequentially. The
elements of the process are:
• Situation definition
• Problem definition
• Search for solutions
• Analysis of performance
• Evaluation of alternatives
• Choice of project
• Specification and construction

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Preliminary studies to understand the situation that caused the
need for transportation improvement.

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To describe the problem in terms of objectives &

translate objectives into criteria that can be
quantified.

Goals and objectives are prepared/ formulated that

identifies deficiencies in the existing system,
desired improvement and what is to be achieved

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Give options for further testing and
evaluation

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To estimate how each alternatives would

perform under present and future
condition

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To determined how well each alternative
will achieve the objectives
( Including cost-benefit analysis)

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Final selection after considering all factors

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Produced detailed design → contractors to estimate
cost → built.

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Facility Inventory Socio-economic &

land use database

Goals & objectives

Stages of planning:

Identify deficiencies & * Preliminary study

opportunities - Collect all data / info
Monitor System
Performance * Analyze
- Cost / budget
Develop & analyze
alternatives * Alternatives
- the available solution

* Implementation
Evaluate alternatives

Implement Plan

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• Eg. 1: Proposed Development
• Behrang 2020 township lies in the 20km future growth
corridor between the borders of Perak and Selangor. It was
developed toease intensified development within the Klang
Valley. The mixed development into residential, commercial
and industrial land use extends 900 acres. Key elements in
the regional location plan in Figure 1 includes the Tanjung
Malim and Behrang Interchanges respectively lying 5km to
the south and 3km to the north. The strategic location of the
site in relation to the Federal Route 1 and the North-south
Expressway is clearly indicated in the figure.
(Adopted from Draft Manual for Traffic Impact Assessment
2000) 25

• Eg.2: Traffic Impact Assessment

• Damansara Uptown would consists of mixed
development of office towers, corporate headquaters,
retail and shopping complex and hotel facilities. The
residential component has been fully developed for
some years and is estimated to house some 22,000
people. Study the impact of traffic within the vicinity
due to these developments.

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Urban Transportation
Planning

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• Urban transportation planning involves the evaluation and

selection of highway or transit facilities to serve present and
future land uses. For example, the construction of a new
shopping center will require additional transportation services.
• The process must also consider other proposed developments
and improvements that will occur within the planning period.
• Urban transportation planning is concerned with 2 separate time
horizons:
• Short-term projects (one to four years period) – to provide
better management of existing facilities by making them as
efficient as possible; (optimize the usage of existing facilities;
exp., change to one-way traffic at certain busy road /
provide traffic light).
• Long-term projects (>20 years) – adding new highway
elements, additional bus lines or freeway lanes, rapid transit
systems or access roads to airports or malls. 28

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Forecast of Future Travel
Demand

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• Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons

or vehicles per unit time that can be expected to travel
on a given segment of a transportation system under a
set of given land-use, socioeconomic and
environmental conditions.
• Three factors affect the demand for urban travel:
• The location and intensity of land use;
• The socioeconomic characteristics of people living in
the area;
• The extent, cost and quality of available
transportation services
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• Urban transportation forecasting process is carried
out to analyze the performance of various
alternatives. There are four basic elements:
i. Data collection / inventories
ii. Analysis of existing conditions and calibration of
forecasting techniques
iii. Forecast of future travel demand
iv. Analysis of the results

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• Prior to data collection, it is necessary to delineate the study

area boundaries and further subdivide the area into traffic
zones.
• Criteria to select these zones:
• Socioeconomic characteristics should be homogeneous.
• Intrazonal trips should be minimized.
• Physical, political and historical boundaries should ne utilized where
possible.
• Zones should not be created within other zones.
• The zone system should generate and attract approximately equal
trips, households, population or area.
• Zones should use census tract (kawasan tanah bancian) boundaries
where possible.

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• Sequential steps for travel forecasting:
i. Trip Generation
ii. Trip Distribution
iii. Modal Choice / Modal Split
iv. Traffic Assignment

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• Establish goals – identify deficiencies of existing
system & what is the desired improvement.
1. Population-Economic activity:
• Should include the following:
i. Age, sex & composition of the family
ii. Employment statistics
iii. Income
iv. Vehicle ownership
v. Home interview surveys
vi. The population data helps in the estimation of future trip-
making behaviours.

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2. Land-use:
• Travel characteristics are closely related to
land-use pattern. Classified into land-use
activity such as:
i. Residential
ii. Industrial
iii. Commercial
iv. Recreational, etc.

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3. Transportation – facilities & usage
• To identify the deficiencies in the present system &
the extent to which they need to be improved.
• Consists of;
i. Inventory of streets forming transportation network
ii. Traffic volume, composition, peak & off-peak
iii. Studies on travel time by diff modes
iv. Inventory of rail transportation facilities – capacity,
schedule, station, etc.
v. Parking inventory – parking demand, charging
implementation
vi. Inventory of public transportation – buses route, fare,
terminals, capacity, schedules, reliability, etc.
vii. Accident data – hazard location – improve the situation 37

Travel patterns & surveys

•Identify:
i. Where & when trips begin / end
ii. Trip purpose
iii. Mode of travel
iv. Social & economic characteristics of trip maker

4 general classifications of travel surveys:

i. Household travel surveys → home interview, telephone,
mail surveys
ii. Roadside surveys
iii. Model surveys
iv. Goods movement surveys
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Trip Generation

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• Trip generation concerns with the estimation of

numbers of trips produced in or attracted to a
given zone.
• Objectives:
• To understand the reasons behind the trip making
behaviour (trip purpose);
• To produce mathematical relationship to syntheses the trip
making pattern.
• Trip generation analysis has two functions:
• To develop a relationship between trip end production /
attraction and land use;
• To use the relationship developed to estimate the number
of trips generated at some future date under a new set
of land-use conditions.
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• A TRIP is a one-way person / vehicular movement
having a single purpose and mode of travel between
appoint of origin and destination.
• Trips are usually divided into home-based and non
home-based:
• Home-based trip: HOME WORK

• Non home-based trip

WORK SHOP

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• Trip Purposes:
• Trips are made for difference purposes and a
classification of trips by purpose is necessary. The
following are some of the important classes of trip
purpose:
• (Work, School, Business, Shopping, Social or
Recreational, Sports & Others)
• Studies have shown that the rate of trip making is closely
related to 3 characteristics of land use:
i. Intensity of land use;
- Dwelling units per acre, employees per acre, etc.
ii. Character of land use;
- Average family income, car ownership, etc.
iii. Location relative to major economic activities.
- Closeness to downtown, etc.
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• Methods used to estimate the trip producing
activity for particular zone:
1. Cross-Classification analysis
• Home-based trip generation is very useful.
• The relationships are developed based on income data
and results of O-D surveys.
• Eg. 12.1 (pp. 628)
• Analysis can be used to develop relevant trip rate if
only good data are available.
• Eg. 12.3 (pp. 635)

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2. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• Multiple linear regression technique is used to formulate
equations to predict the number of trips generated.
• Given the high correlations that typically exist between trip
rates and socio-economic variables.
• The general form of equation:
Y = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + ……… + anxn
Where,
Y = Dependent variables (Trip)
x1, x2 = Independent variables relating to Y
(Exp.: land use, socio-economic factors, etc.)
a1, a2 = Coefficients of the respective independent
variables

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 • In developing regression equations, it is assumed that:
• All independent variables are independent of each other.
• All independent variables are normally distributed &
continuous (future growth same as predicted).
• The quality of fit of regression line determined by
multiple linear regressions is indicated by the multiple
correlation coefficient (goodness of fit) represented by
R2 value being between 0 and 1.
• Exp. 11.3 (pp. 613)

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Trip Distribution

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• Trip generated and attracted from each zone are
distributed to any other zone.
• To determine how many trips are generated from each
zone and for what purpose they are made.
• This trip distribution model distribute all trips begin from
one zone to other zone; therefore, the data of total of
trip produced and trip attracted obtained from the trip
generation process is important.
• The major product is the trip table, an origin-destination
matrix that shows the number of trip originating in the
study zones and where these trips are destined.

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• Methods:
A. Growth Factor Method
• Still being used in small studies
• 4 methods:
i. Uniform factor method
ii. Average factor method
iii. Fratar method √
iv. Detroit method
v. Furness Method
B. Synthetic Method:
i) Gravity model √
ii) Tanner model
iii) Intervening opportunities model
iv) Competing opportunities model

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• To develop the model, it is required to fulfill certain
conditions:
1. Summation of trip produced from every zone must equal to
the total of trip produced.

P1
T1n
1 T12 T12 + T13 + T14 …..T1n = P1

T14
T13

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2. Summation of trip attracted from every zone must equal to

the total of trip attracted.

T21

T31
Tn1 T21 + T31 + T41 …..Tn1 = A1
1
A1 T41

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3. ∑ Pj = ∑Aj =W;

∑ Pj = Summation of all trip produced

∑ Aj = Summation of all trip attracted.
D 1 2 3 4

O
1 P1
2 P2
3 P3
4 P4
A1 A2 A3 A4 W
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A) Growth Factor Method √

i. Uniform factor method

where, Tdij = Future trips from zone i to j

Tsij = Present trips from zone i to j
Fij = Trip growth factor
• Limitation of this model:
• Values of total trip produced & attracted differ from the original.
• Use same factor from zone to zone.

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 Pd1=50 Pd2=70

Ad1=35 Ts12=7 Ad2=60

1 2
Ts21=5
• Example: Ts14=6
Ts23=4
Ts41=6
Ts32=3
Pd4=35 Ts34=8
Pd3=30
Ad4=40 4 Ts43=7 3
Ad3=50

Ts12+Ts13+Ts14=7+10+6=23
So, Zone: 1-2: Td12 = 2.3125 * 7 = 16.2
1-3: Td13 = 2.3125 * 10 = 23.1

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ii. Average factor method

• In this method, a growth factor for each zone is calculated
based on the average of the growth factors calculated for
both end of the trip.
• The factor thus represents the average growth associated
both with the origin and destination zones.

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• The following mathematical relationship represents the principle employed:

where, Tdij = Future trips from zone i to j

Tsij = Present trips from zone i to j
Fij = Trip growth factor

Fpi = ,Generated trips growth factor for zone i

Faj = ,Attracted trips growth factor for zone j

Pd = Future generated trips for zone i
Ps = Present generated trips for zone i
Ad = Future attracted trips for zone j
As = Present attracted trips for zone j

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• Example:
• Zone 1:

• Zone 2:

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iii. Fratar method (pp. 643)
• Data required:
• present trip generation
• Growth Factors
• Present trips between zones

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• Eg. 12.6
(pp. 643)

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iii. Detroit method

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• B) Gravity model (pp. 637)
• Data required:
• Total no. of trip produced
• No. of trip attracted
• Travel time
• Socioeconomic Adjustment Factors
• Number of trips between two zones is directly
proportional to the number of trip attractions
generated by the zone of destination and adversely
proportional to a function of time of travel between
two zone.
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• Expressed as:

where, Tij = no. of trips that are produced in zone i

and attracted to zone j
Pi = total no. of trips produced in zone i
Aj = no. of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which is an inverse functions of
travel time
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for
interchange ij

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• Eg. 12.4 (pp. 638):
• Study area consisting 3 zones. The data have been
determined as follows:

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• Examples: Traffic And Transport Planning
• Q1) Based on the following figure, distribute the
trips using the models below:
i. Uniform Factor Method and Average Factor Method.
Carry out the trip distribution until the third (3rd)
iteration.
ii. Fratar Model and Detroit Model until the third (3rd)
iteration.

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• Given:

Ts21=5 Ts12=4 Ts41=8 Ts14=7 Ts13=6

Ts31=5 Ts23=5 Ts32=5 Ts24=4 Ts42=7

Ts43=4 Ts34=3 Pd1=32 Ad1=26 Pd2=24

Ad2=25 Pd3=20 Ad3=25 Pd4=30 Ad4=25

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Modal-Split

3/14/2016 copyright@Tey Li Sian 69

• Primarily oriented toward predicting the percentage of

individuals who will choose one mode (automobile or transit)
over others for making a particular trip (Individual
choice model).
• Factors influence the mode choice:
• Type of trip (trip purpose, time of day);
• Characteristics of the trip maker (income, age, auto ownership);
• Characteristics of the transportation systems (convenience, cost,
time, comfort, safety)
• Different model formulations have been used to predict
mode choice based on different model utilities but the
most common formulation called the logit model.

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• Mode choice model:
• Direct generation method: empirical and obtained from
graph of transit trips per day per 1000 population vs. person
per acre.
• Trip end models: estimates are made prior to the trip
distribution phase and are based on land-use or socio-
economic characteristics of the zone.
• Logit model: consider the relative utility of each mode as a
summation of each modal attribute. The choice of a mode is
express as a probability distribution.

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• Logit Models:
• To consider the utility of each mode.
• The choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution. For
example, assume that the utility of each mode is:

where, Ux = utility of mode x

N = number of attributes
Xi = attribute value (time, cost, etc.)
ai = coefficient value (-ve since the
values are disutility)
• If there are 2 modes, auto (A) and Transit (T), the probability of
selecting the auto mode A can be written as:

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• Eg. 12.9 (pp. 649):

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Trip Assignment

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 • Simulate route choice – assigning the trip to paths (by incorporate improvement,
etc.) in the networks.
(Travelers will choose a path that minimizes travel time / cost / distance from
origin to destination.)
• Purpose: Determine the expected traffic volumes for actual street and highway
routes that will be used and the number of automobiles and buses that can be
expected on each highway segment.
• Then, to divert the traffic from overloaded link, assign certain traffic to use
certain link in certain time.
• Application of trip assignment:
• To determine the deficiencies in the existing transportation system by assigning the
future trips to the existing system;
• To evaluate the effects of limited improvements to existing transportation system by
assigning estimated future trips to the improved network;
• To provide (traffic data) design hour traffic volumes on highway and turning
movements at junctions.

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• Methods:
i. All – or – nothing (Free assignment or desire assignment) √
(minimum time path assignment)
ii. Multiple route assignment
iii. Diversion curve
• Similar to mode choice, where traffic between 2 routes is
determine as a function of relative travel time or cost. A
graph of percent travel on route B vs. travel time ratio
• (time on route A/ time on route B)
iv. Minimum Time Path with Capacity Restraint assignment
• Is a refinement of the min. path method. After a proportion of
traffic has been assigned to a link, the travel time on each link
are adjusted based on the capacity & the number of trios on
each link, the iteration goes on until all trips have been
assigned. Eg: t’ = t [1 + 0.15 (v/c)4]
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• A procedure commonly used  ‘Moore’s
Algorithm’
• Programming used to determine travel time from 1
point to 1 point through different network.
• Developed method for getting shortest-time path.
• To construct ‘min. path tree’.

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• Example: (in seconds)

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3
18 19 1 20
21
2 3 4
16 17
2 3
3 1

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 Starting Centrod 1:
T1-20 = 3
T1-20-25 = 6
T1-17-19 = 5
T1-17 = 3
T1-20-21 = 7
T1-17-13 = 6
T1-20-19 = 4
T1-17-16 = 5
• * Two possible routes to node 19  choose shortest time.

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• Minimum Path Assignment (all-or-nothing) is based on the theory

that a motorist or transit user will select the quickest route
between any O-D pair.
• Thus, it is necessary to find the shortest route from the zone of
origin to all other destination zones → develop skim tree.

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• (i) All-or-nothing:
• Simplest technique.
• Combination of many parameters.
• Example:
From zone centroid To zone centroid Traffic volume (v/hr)

1 2 2500

1 3 3000

1 4 4000

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+4000
+3000 +3000 3
11 +4000 18 +3000
+4000
1
+2500 15
+3000 +2500
+4000

+2500 2
12

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• Traffic volume assign to various links are;

Link Traffic Flow (v/hr)

1-11 9500
11-12 2500
12-2 2500
11-15 7000
15-18 7000
18-3 3000
18-4 4000

• * If overloading is found to exist, the journey times are altered

& assignment is repeated.

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• Based on extrapolation of past trends

• Demand Elasticity
• Travel demand may be determined if the
relationship between demand & a key service
variable (travel cost) is known
• Relationship: E(V) = (dV/V) / (dX/X), where
V=volume, X=service

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 • Basic issues in evaluation
• Objective
• Stakeholders
• Measuring criteria
• Evaluation procedure and decision making – facts on
financial and social feasibility
• Elements of cost
• Outcomes, exp.: benefits
• Confident of predicted outcomes
• Evaluation methods – sensitivity analysis:
• a) Based on Economic Criteria
• b) Based on Multiple Criteria (not only money)
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Transportation System
Management

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• The objective is to create more efficient use of existing
facilities through improved management and operation
of vehicles and the roadway.
• Three basic categories of TSM strategies:
• Creating efficient use of road space → manage
transportation supply
• Reducing vehicle use in congested areas → manage
transportation demand / transportation demand
management (TDM)
• Provide transit service

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• To examine various TSM strategies is to

describe:
• Problems addressed
• Conditions for application
• Implementation problems
• Evaluation factors

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• Each of the TSM strategies
→may solve one problem, it may create others
→ may be accepted by some group but opposed
by others.
• TSM sometime use Intelligent Transportation Systems
(ITS), which refers to the use of information technology
including computers, electronics and communications to
improve traffic operations.→ communicate to road
users →give info. of traffic that road users can’t see
far in front; → so, they can choose route before start
trip or change route to avoid congestion.

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