Anees Hussain Salman Ghaffar

Probability
Probability forms the basis of statistical calculations in many instances. The concept of probability is
very simple - it relates to the chance of an event taking place (or not taking place). Without realizing it,
we use probability in our daily lives - for instance, while taking a short cut when stuck in a traffic jam,
you are assuming that there is a greater chance of your getting to your destination faster. Sometimes that
move backfires, and it takes you even longer than it would have if you had stuck to the original route -
all a part of chances or probability.

Probability also forms the basis of gambling, or investing (choosing alternative forms of investments).
You place your bets based upon your belief of the chances of an event happening. For instance in an
Australia vs. Zimbabwe match, more people would place their bets on Australia - that bet is placed
merely because there is a greater chance of Australia winning the match. Gamblers would say that
“Australia has better odds at winning the match”.

Importantly, don't be scared of probability- it's as simple as doing 1+1.

Here, let us introduce a basic formula for calculating the probability of an event happening.

Probability of success =
Number of favorable outcomes
Number of total outcomes

Tossing Coins

Let’s try some basic probability concepts - through tossing coins. Tossing a coin can result in either a
“head” or a “tail”. A FAIR coin has a 50% chance of landing a head and a 50% chance of landing a tail.
Thus the probability of a head is ½ and the probability of a tail is also ½. (The probability of all possible
outcomes or results always adds to 1).

Example 1:
A coin is tossed to decide which side will bat first in a cricket match between Pakistan and Australia. If
the Pakistani captain calls a head when the coin is thrown, what is the probability that Australia will win
the toss?

Ans: For Australia to win the toss, the coin should land with the tail up. Since a fair coin has an equal
probability of landing both a head and a tail, the chance of tail appearing is 1/2 . Thus the probability
that Australia will bat first is 1/2.

Example 2:
A fair coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting 1 Head and 1 Tail?

Ans: An easy way of answering this question is to use a “sample space” – that is, a list of all possible
outcomes.
1st Toss 2nd Toss
Head Head
Head Tail
Tail Head

1
Anees Hussain Salman Ghaffar
Tail Tail

Since there are 2 possible ways of satisfying the requirement out of 4 possible outcomes, the probability
2 1
of getting 1 Head and 1 Tail =  Ans.
4 2

n
1
Shortcut: Probability of getting r heads (or tails) in n tosses of a coin = nCr x  
2

Exercise A:
Question 1: A fair coin is tossed thrice. What is the probability of getting all Heads?

Question 2: A fair coin is tossed thrice. What is the probability of getting 2 Heads and 1 Tail?

Rolling Dice
A regular die (singular of dice) has 6 faces, numbered from 1 to 6. Each face has a 1/6 chance of being
rolled.

Example 1:
What is the probability of landing a ‘5’ when a fair die is rolled?

Ans: Since a die has 6 sides, the probability of getting a '5' face on a throw (or for that matter any face)
is 1/6.

Pulling Marbles Out Of a Bag

Assume that you have a bag of marbles which contains 5 red marbles, 10 green marbles, and 15 blue
marbles. You draw a marble at random (which basically means without looking). The probability of
drawing out a particular marble depends upon the total number of marbles of that type. Since the
number of blue marbles is the greatest, there is obviously a greater chance of drawing a blue marble
than that of any other color.

Number of favorable outcomes

Probability of success =
Number of total outcomes

In the bag of marbles introduced above, the probability of drawing a green marble at random
= Number of green marbles / Number of total marbles
= 10/30 = 1/3

2
Anees Hussain Salman Ghaffar

Example 1:
A bag of marbles contains 5 Red, 10 Blue and 15 Green marbles. You draw 2 marbles at random,
without replacement. What is the probability that both are Red?

Ans: Now this question has an important phrase - WITHOUT REPLACEMENT. This means that you
draw the first marble and put it on the side – you DO NOT put it back in the bag.

A question like this is tackled in three basic steps:

Step 1: Calculate probability of the first marble being RED = 5/30
Step 2: Calculate probability of the second marble being RED = 4/29 (note that since you are assuming
you have been successful in drawing a red on the first attempt, the number of red marbles in the
bag has gone down to 4 and total marbles have reduced to 29).
Step 3: Combining the two probabilities. Since both events have to take place (event 1: first marble
RED; AND event 2: second marble RED) for you to succeed, you MULTIPLY the probabilities.

Thus the probability of drawing 2 red marbles from the bag =

Probability of 1st being RED x Probability of 2nd being RED (given the first one was red)
5 4 20 2
=    (simplified to the smallest fraction).
30 29 870 87

Example 2:
A bag of marbles contains 5 Red, 10 Blue and 15 Green marbles. You draw 2 marbles at random,
without replacement. What is the probability that one is Red and the other is Green?

Ans: This
Step 1: Calculate probability of the first marble being RED = 5/30
Step 2: Calculate probability of the second marble being GREEN = 15/29 (note that since you are
assuming you have been successful in drawing a red on the first attempt, the total marbles have
reduced to 29).
Step 3: Combining the two probabilities. Since both events have to take place (event 1: first marble
RED; AND event 2: second marble GREEN) for you to succeed, you MULTIPLY the
5 15 5
probabilities =   (simplified to the smallest fraction).
30 29 58

Step 4: Remember the question said “what is the probability that one is Red and the other is Green” – it
never specified the ORDER in which the colors must appear. Hence, there are more than one
ways of satisfying the requirement. In fact, there are 2 ways of satisfying the requirement:
1st Red & 2nd Green OR 1st Green & 2nd Red
5 5 10 5
Probabilities + =  Ans.
58 58 58 29

(Note that the probability of the event 1st Red & 2nd Green = the probability of the event 1st Green & 2nd
Red).

Exercise B:

3
Anees Hussain Salman Ghaffar
Question 1: A bag of marbles contains 6 Red & 9 Blue marbles. You draw 3 marbles at random, without
replacement. What is the probability that one is Red and two are Blue?

Question 2: A bag of marbles contains 10 Red & 5 Blue marbles. You draw 2 marbles at random, with
replacement. What is the probability that one is Red and one is Blue?

Composition of a deck of playing cards

A pack of regular playing cards contains 52 cards, divided into 4 “suits” (Hearts, Diamonds, Spades and
Clubs). Hence, every “suit” is made up of 13 cards – Ace, King, Queen, Jack and nine number cards
(from 2 to 10).

The four “suits” :

The cards in one “suit”:

Example 4:
What is the probability of pulling out a KING when drawing a card at random from a pack of playing
cards?

Ans: A pack of playing cards has 52 cards, of which 4 are kings. Therefore the probability of drawing a
king at random = 4/52 = 1/13

Example 5:
What is the probability of pulling out a black Jack when drawing a card at random from a pack of
playing cards?

Ans: A pack of playing cards has 2 black Jacks (the Jack of Clubs and the Jack of Spades). Therefore
the probability of drawing a black Jack at random = 2/52 = 1/26

4
Anees Hussain Salman Ghaffar
Example 6:
What is the probability of pulling out an Ace OR a King when drawing one card at random from a pack
of playing cards?

Ans: A pack of playing cards has 4 Aces and 4 Kings – a total of 8 cards that satisfy the requirement.
Therefore the probability of drawing an Ace OR a King at random = 8/52 = 2/13

Example 7:
From a pack of regular playing cards, two cards are drawn at random without replacement. What is the
probability of pulling out a King and a Queen?

Ans: A pack of playing cards has 4 Kings and 4 Queens. In this case, TWO cards are being drawn.
Since the question does not specify the order in which the King and Queen must appear, we can
draw them in any order we like. Hence there are 2 possible outcomes:

1st Card 2nd Card Probability

4 4 4
King & Queen  
52 51 663
OR
4 4 4
Queen & King  
52 51 663

4 4 8
Hence the answer is =  
663 663 663

(Note that if the question specified the order – for example if it said what is the probability of drawing
4
the first card as a King and the second card as a Queen, the answer in that case will by simply ).
663

Tossing more than one coin

Rolling 2 dice

Choosing people from a group