PROBABILITY

- ENGR. JOYME C. SALAZAR

PROBABILITY 0 ≤ 𝑃 ≤ 1

 The chance that a given event will occur

 The ratio of the number of outcomes in an exhaustive sets of equally like
outcomes that produce a given event to the total number of possible
outcomes.
TRIAL – repetition of an experiment
OUTCOMES – possible result in each trial
If a single fair die is rolled, find the probability of rolling the number 4.
A single die is rolled. What is the probability of getting an even number; a number
greater than 4; a number less than 10.
If a single playing card is drawn at random from an ordinary 52 card bridge deck, find the
probability of a) drawing an ace; b) drawing a face card; c) drawing a heart; d) drawing a king;
e) drawing a black card.
Each of the 2 digit numbers w/ no zero digit and no digit repeated is written on a card. The
cards are then shuffled and one is drawn at random. What is the probability that the sum of
the digits will be 9?
 If all 𝐸 outcomes correspond to events then the event is surely to occur.
𝑛 𝑠
𝑃 𝐸 = =1
𝑛 𝑠
 If no outcome correspond to event 𝑆 then the event is solely not to occur.
0
𝑃 𝐸 = =0
𝑛 𝑠
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Two or more events are mutually exclusive if not more than one of them can happen
in a given trial.
a) If 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 are any two events mutually exclusive or not with probability 𝑃(𝐸1 )
and 𝑃(𝐸2 ), the probability of 𝐸1 or 𝐸2 is
𝑷 𝑬𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝑬𝟐 = 𝑷 𝑬𝟏 + 𝑷 𝑬𝟐 − 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 )(𝑬𝟐 )
b) If 𝐸1 and 𝐸2 are mutually exclusive events then the probability that one of them will
occur in a single trial is
𝑷 𝑬𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝑬𝟐 = 𝑷 𝑬𝟏 + 𝑷 𝑬𝟐 − 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 )(𝑬𝟐 )
If one card is drawn from a deck of 2 playing cards, find the probability that it will be red or
an ace?
If the probability of marrying Mary is 1 2 for Leo and 1 3 for Ed. What is the probability that
one of them will marry her?
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
If the probability oof the occurrence of event 𝐸1 does not allow the probability of the
occurrence of event 𝐸2 , then the events are independent.
 DEPENDENT EVENTS
If the occurrence of one of a set of events affects the probability that another will
occur, the events are said to be dependent.
A bag contains 6 white marshmallows and 4 green marshmallows. A marshmallow is drawn
from the bag and replaced and then a second marshmallow is withdrawn, find the
probability that the first marshmallow is white ans the second is green?
A bag contains 3 white marshmallow, 4 red and 5 green candies. Five withdrawals of one
candy each are made and the candy is replaced after each. Find the probability that all five
will be red.
Suppose on the previous problem the candies are not replaced, find the probability that all
will be green.
Nine tickets number 1 to 9 are in a box. If two tickets are drawn at random, determine the
probability that both are odd?
PROBABILITY OF EVENTS OCCURRING TOGETHER

If you know the probabilities that corresponds to the branches of a tree diagram then you
can find the probability of a particular outcome by multiplying the probabilities along the path
leading to that outcome.
 REPEATED TRIALS OF AN EVENT
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY THEOREM
If 𝑝 is the probability that it will occur exactly 𝑟 times in 𝑛 trials, then the probability is
𝑃 =𝑐 𝑛𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟 ; 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1
𝑝 = probability of success
𝑞 = probability of failure
Two yellow balls and three green balls are placed in a jar. One ball is randomly chosen, its
color is noted and the ball is put back in the jar. Find the probability that both balls are of
the same color.
A jar contains just 2 red marbles and 3 green marbles. One marble is selected at random
and returned, then the second marble is selected. Find the probability that a) the first
marble is green; b) both marbles are green.
Box A contains 5 red marbles and 3 blue marbles and Box B contains 3 red marbles and 2
blue marbles. A marble is drawn at random from each box, find a) the probability that both
marbles are red and b) the probability that one is red and one is blue.
If a coin is tossed 10 times, what is the probability of getting exactly 4 heads?
Find the probability of obtaining either four or five heads if a fair coin is tossed six times.
Find the probability of obtaining at least one head if a fair coin is tossed 100 times.