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Pillars of India’s Resurging Growth
Reform momentum helps create base for more sustainable longer term growth revival
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research
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Ease of Doing Business Rank
160 A Central bank focused on inflation control and a prudent government
142
134 130 focused on cutting costs is a recipe for a strong domestic economy
140
120
100 Pent-up demand held back on account of demonetization expected to
80 bounce back and revive the top line growth of companies
60 50
40
Policy stability provides positive impetus to business establishments and
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encourage increase in capital spending
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2014 2015 2016 2020
Revival in the economy is underway as macro readjustments are in force and a fresh business cycle is brewing
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: Bloomberg, RBI
Sharpened
Government Focus
Favorable
on Ease of Doing GST
Demographics &
Business
Rising Urbanization
Improving
Demonetization & Infrastructure &
Digitization Booming E-
Commerce
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research
A landmark reform aimed at putting India’s economy on a long term growth path…
Advantage GST
Less complicated processes
Has a Dual
Structure : Central
GST & State GST
3.5%
Indicative savings for both
Lower
4 TIERED TAX companies as well as
5% 12% 18% 28% Price
STRUCTURE consumers
for common use for essential items for bulk items eg. for cars and white
AGREED UPON items eg. Tea, eg. processed food, soaps, shaving goods (+cess – luxury
BY THE GST coffee, oil, spices computers creams cars, tobacco, aerated
drinks)
COUNCIL *0% for food grains *Separate rate for precious metals
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research, Edelweiss research
Current Share of Unorganized Sector Organized Sector will take Market Share from
Food Services
Informal Sector and grow faster
95%
Jewellery 80%
Apparel 80% A reformed India will offer similar
Plywood 70% opportunities to small as well as big players.
Logistics 70%
Sanitaryware 60% Unorganized players lose competitive cost
Footwear 50% advantage / cash profits they were enjoying
Tiles 50% in form of tax evasion, circumvention of
Electric Goods 45%
labour laws & flouting of other regulations
Small Appliances 40%
Sectors like Auto/Auto ancillaries, building
Pipes 40%
material, Consumer staples-durables &
Detergents 35%
discretionary will benefit the most from this
Tyres 30%
shift
Batteries 30%
Pharma 30% Demonetization has initiated the shift
Paints 30% towards formal economy, GST will fast rack
Soaps 20% the process.
Other Auto Components 15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research, Edelweiss research
Disadvantage - Unorganized
Sector
Access to lower cost of raw materials via tax evasion through Cash Advantage - Organized
Transactions will be significantly curbed Sector
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research, Edelweiss research
ECONOMY
CONSUMER
COMPANIES
• No distinction between Product & • Dual monitoring by the Centre and • Most products are likely to be less
Service for Tax states to reduce tax evasion expensive over time
• Uniform Tax across the country to • Better compliance through real time • A possible reduction in Personal
ease business matching of supplier and purchaser Income Tax Slabs in the future, due to
an efficient tax collection GST regime
• Smooth movement of products • Reduction in the Rs. 1.8 lakh crore
across states approximate annual loss due to excise • On road prices of vehicles likely to
duty exemptions come down by 8%
• Tax credits to lower tax burden,
improve profits for some • Cut in Rs. 1.5 lakh crore estimated
loss to states due to tax exemptions
• Positive impact on the following
sectors due to lowering of cost of • Reduction in prices of capital goods
goods : Auto, FMCG, Logistics, by 12-14%; consequent GDP growth
Infrastructure, Consumer Durables, by 0.5%
Cement, Consumer Discretionary
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research, Edelweiss research
• Increased Public Expenditure for Infra • Improved logistics & savings on storage cost • Higher aspiration & increased urbanization to
• Affordable housing focus & lower interest rates • Savings on Tax structure to boost margins for lead demand for branded products; digitisation
to provide impetus to individual home demand the sector to facilitate
• Smart Cities • 7th Pay Commission already increasing
RIFS-3 propensity to consume
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research
JEWELLERY
PLASTICS PLYWOOD
TILES ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT
BATTERIES DAIRY
DIAGNOSTICS
APPAREL HOSPITALS
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: Edelweiss research
creating huge replacement demand for products such as tyres, zed, 85% 19% Electrical Parts
12%
batteries and engine oils, which have an average shelf life of 2.5 to 3 Others
years
No. of players in auto ancillaries sector
Two/three wheelers are the largest customer segment of auto- Organised ~ 700
component market Unorganised ~ 10000
The industry has traditionally been one of the few industries which Turnover Trend
100
has been subjected to a very expensive indirect tax regime currently 84
80 66
GST is expected to result in a reduction in the cost of doing business
USD Bn
60
for Organised players by removing the cascading effect of Central 40 34 33 30
26 25
and State taxes from the current 20%-26% to 18% 20
19
9 10 10
5 4 6
0
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2019-20E
The total market size is expected to be more than USD150 bn by 2020, Industry expect that the replacement market for components with
which is nearly three times the current market size of about USD 35.1 bn shorter shelf lives will see a double digit growth
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research, IBEF
With expectations of an overall demand revival, the company’s industrial segment volume growth is expected to be healthy
Commercial vehicle sales are expected to pick up supported by revival in Indian economy. This will have a positive impact on Exide Industries
In addition, most of two wheelers (2W) are coming with electric start and use valve regulated lead acid (VRL) batteries, which have a shorter
replacement cycle and thus, the company’s volume of the two-wheeler segment is expected to grow at a better pace
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The Stocks mentioned above shall be deemed not to constitute an advice, an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so. The Scheme may or may not have exposure to the mentioned stocks
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC research
Building materials constitute anywhere around ~35% of total cost of Cost break-up % cost
construction
Total RCC/Civil cost
50%
(Sand, Iron & Steel, Cement, bricks, labour, etc)
The growth of building material sector currently attributes largely to ‘the
shortening replacement/refurbishment cycle’ & ‘the shift happening from Total cost of amenities
35%
unbranded to branded products (Tiles, pipes, paints, sanitaryware, faucets, electricals, etc)
Total cost of common facilities
This space covers niche building material categories like ceramic tiles, plastic 15%
(Lifts, podium, fire fighting, infrastructure, etc)
pipes, sanitary ware, wood panels, etc. which are structural, sustainable and
Total cost of construction 100%
scalable themes to play out
GST major trigger going forward - Shift from unbranded to branded have enabled building material brands to grow despite the macro-economic slowdown
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: ISec research
A comprehensive play on wood panels – The only Indian player with comprehensive
portfolio including plywood, face veneers, laminates, decorative veneers, PLPB and
MDF boards
Top quality retail player in plywood segment – Strong brand pull, largest installed Century Ply
capacity in India, high retail penetration and strong distribution network
300
Vast expertise in raw material security – First mover advantage by way of putting up
huge capacities in face veneers in Myanmar and Laos. Laos venture expected to be 250
highly profitable
200
Laminates division to supplement growth – Higher capacity utilisation in laminates and
recently commenced PLPB unit to supplement revenue growth and aid segmental 150
margin expansion
100
MDF (medium density fibre) unit to be operational in Q4FY17 – Incremental growth Current Price – Rs 228
50
driver with increasing awareness and acceptability of MDF in India Buy Current M Cap – Rs 5060 Crs
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The Stocks mentioned above shall be deemed not to constitute an advice, an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so. The Scheme may or may not have exposure to the mentioned stocks
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC research
6 Key
Desires
of Gen z
Aspirations for
More connectivity branded products
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: Edelweiss research
• Retail chain is 1333 stores strong, as on 31st December 2016 with the retail area crossing 1.75 million sq.ft. nationally for all its brands. A total of 118
stores were added by TCL brands in the nine month period till December 2016
• Focusing on wedding jewellery and collections has worked out well. Consumers have very easily transitioned to paying for jewellery with Credit Cards or
Cheques, aided by Demonetization
• Titan is well placed to win market share (about 200bp by FY20E) especially from smaller unorganized competitors as the cost of doing business increases
with the potential GST implementation and moving towards a more formalized economy**
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Current Price – Rs 412
50 Current M Cap – Rs 37220 Crs
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The Stocks mentioned above shall be deemed not to constitute an advice, an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so. The Scheme may or may not have exposure to the mentioned stocks
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: NSE, BSLAMC Research, **Goldman Sachs
15
13% CAGR 12.5 33%
Rural
9.7
10 Urban
7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4
6.3
4.7 5.2
5 3.8 4.2
3.5
67%
0
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY20F
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: Electronic Industries Association of India, Ministry of Urban Development
• Voltas is one of the best consumer durables play in the country led by a strong diversified product portfolio and a leadership market share
across categories
• Margins on AC’s are expected to be between 12% and 13% on sustainable basis (after considering impact of GST & end of tax holidays in
next 1 year)**
• Reduction in tax incidence of white goods to 28% from current levels of around 30% will benefit Voltas.**
• The longevity of the business is strong given the low penetration of Consumer Durables in India and increasing disposable incomes.
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150 Current Price – Rs 339
Current M Cap – Rs 11238 Crs
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The Stocks mentioned above shall be deemed not to constitute an advice, an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so. The Scheme may or may not have exposure to the mentioned stocks
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: NSE, **Edelweiss Research
60
80 59.6
58.1
58 58.0
57.8
60 56.4
56 55.9
40 54 53.3
29.4
52.7
18.92 52
20 12.3 12.1 14.8
9 10.4
50
0 48
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2025E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
• Britannia is a leading food company with over Rs. 8500 crores in revenue and an expansive 4.2 million retail outlets
• Britannia estimates 6-7% of savings on secondary freight costs (which account for ~30% of total freight costs) on account of GST
• Britannia is estimated to clock 16.2% revenue CAGR over FY16‐18E driven by distribution expansion, new launches and increased
salience of other segments like dairy, cakes etc.**
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The Stocks mentioned above shall be deemed not to constitute an advice, an offer to sell/ purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so. The Scheme may or may not have exposure to the mentioned stocks
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: NSE, **BSLAMC Research
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt whether the product is suitable for them.
The scheme will have duration/tenure of 3.5 years from and including the date of allotment. The NAVs of the scheme will
be announced on every Business Day. No redemption or repurchase will be permitted prior to maturity of the Scheme.
Liquidity The scheme will be listed on NSE / BSE and/or any other recognized stock exchanges as may be decided by AMC from time
to time and the Unit holders who wish to redeem units may do so through Stock Exchange at prevailing listed price on
such Stock Exchange.
Regular Plan and Direct Plan; Both plans will have two options: Growth and Dividend.
Plans/Options
Dividend option will have two facilities: Payout and Sweep.
Investment Universe
Portfolio will seek to invest across market caps
Portfolio to focus on companies experiencing high growth in sales, earnings growth, ROI etc. currently the portfolio is able to screen companies
with growth of over 15% CAGR & higher
Take advantage of opportunities in IPOs and QIBs
Investment Style
Fund will follow a largely bottom up approach. The goal is to invest in a selection of focused companies who have demonstrated an ability to
achieve market-beating results over long periods.
Each investment is expected to be from a 18-24 month perspective; while the fund endeavours to maintain a low churning ratio, it will also book
profits at opportune times
Portfolio features
A relatively more focused portfolio of around 35-45 stocks, spread across 5-8 sectors
Selection parameters to include business fundamentals like – nature and stability of business, prospects of future growth and scalability,
expected growth in earnings, financial strength and track record.
Portfolio to be relatively more aggressively positioned with 40-60% allocation to Mid & Small caps; may invest upto 70% in large caps to reduce
volatility and manage impact of market volatility
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited Source: BSLAMC research
Strong shift of balance of power from Unorganised to Organised sector across key industry segments – rerating yet to be captured
Focused portfolio with Bottom up approach – fundamental research to help gain from India’s biggest tax reform since independence in a
relatively concentrated portfolio
Major beneficiaries from this stories are companies with good cash flow ; strong returns ratios and sustainable growth
Key reforms like Demonetisation & Digitisation to add to tailwind for serious gains by companies in Organised sector
Key beneficiaries of these reforms already market outperformers, available at reasonable valuations with significant potential to rerate
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