Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 2 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of the Unit 1

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☒ 3
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
50 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Thursday, September
Friday, September 6, 2019 26, 2019
Competence to develop:

The student uses in real situations, the expected value, the trees of decision and the
theory of the utility in the decision making that guarantees the development and
continuity of a decision process.

Topics to develop:

Unit 1. Decisions in an environment of risk

1. Expected value
2. Decision Trees
3. Utility Theory

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as follows:

Step 1. In each of the Exercises, that is, from 1 to 3, the student must solve the proposed
questions by decision trees, find the expected values of the perfect and sample
information are key to determine the final efficiency in the decision making process. Take
into account the probabilities and values of the demand to go step by arming the decision
trees and calculate the values that will help you solve each of the questions in the guide.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the Exercises
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed Exercises is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.

Step 2. The group will use the tool found in the practical learning environment to
immediately solve the proposed Exercises and check if the answers obtained by the
manual methods described above coincide and discuss whether the use of techno
pedagogical tools to solve Exercises of operations research.

Stage 3. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.
Activities to develop

Next, you will find 3 exercises that make up Phase 2, these should be developed
individually. As a collaborative activity in addition to the discussion, correction,
consolidation of the final work, is the use of the online tool that is available in the practical
learning environment to check results of manual and online methods of the Exercises
raised.

To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory And Applications, Bern,
Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern, Switzerland. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.

Exercise 1. Decision trees, EVPI and EVMI

Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 25
years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the contrary
the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product.
The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature
Demand low
Decision alternative Demand low- Demand High
average -
utility - utility
utility

Manufacture 321 352 367

Subcontract 335 353 381
Buy 318 361 375
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,35 0,35 0,3

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:
 P(F/low) = 0,35 P(D/low) = 0,65
P(F/low average) = 0,41 P(D/ low average) = 0,59
P(F/high) = 0,32 P(D/high) = 0,68

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Exercise 2. Decision trees, EVPI and EVMI

ElectroCom, a company that manufactures electronic components for the introduction in

its product catalog, must decide whether to manufacture a new product in its main plant,
subcontract it with company supervision or if it buys it from an external supplier. The
profits depend on the demand of the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions
of dollars.

According to the corresponding information in Table 2 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,15 P(D/low) = 0,85

P(F/low average) = 0,45 P(D/ low average) = 0,55
P(F/high medium) = 0,3 P(D/ high medium) = 0,7
P(F/high) = 0,5 P(D/high) = 0,5

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?
Exercise 3. Decision trees, EVPI and EVMI

Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of
30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the
contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of
the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

According to the corresponding information in Table 3 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision
Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable

(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,21 P(D/low) = 0,79

P(F/low average) = 0,25 P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(F/high medium) = 0,42 P(D/ high medium) = 0,58
P(F/high) = 0,3 P(D/high) = 0,7

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Exercise 4. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative activity

As a group activity enter the Practical Environment, this space presents a URL that will
direct them to a resource page and with the data entry they can check the solution of
each of the proposed Exercises, remember to attach screenshots to their collaborative
work final, income and table of results for the exercises.

The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment a single file
in PDF format consolidating the contributions of all the participants in the space named
Phase 2. Unit 1.
Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum of the
activity, the development and solution of each of the proposed
exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:

The working group should demonstrate the use of the resource

provided in the practical learning environment and upload the
screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document must be

Products to
submitted in pdf format, with the following specifications:
deliver by
student
Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working
Group_212066_TC1, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the
following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the

consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the recourse
online that performed in the practical learning environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports
the solution of Exercises.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
require the joint participation of the members of the group,
the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
Planning of activities self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
for the development of approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.
collaborative work
In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught
and learned from problems that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the problems are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
 you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.
Recognition of actors as subjects:

The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype, social networking links.) of
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
development of each academic activity . They will also design
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the principles

Roles to perform by of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
the student in the of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
collaborative group learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that support
the process being carried out, among others that allow the
team to advance and that each one can strengthen its
formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
contribute in the achievement of good results of the
 equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.
Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the
final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
included in the product to be delivered.

Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of

submission of work required by the teacher.
Roles and
Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria
responsibility for the
present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge
delivery of products by
of the alerts so that you inform the other members of the
students
team in case any adjustments need to be made on the
subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and
send the document in the stipulated times, using the
resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.
Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish (Translation of
version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

presentation of information most used in the area of social
Use of references sciences. These are published under a Manual that allows you
to have access to the ways in which a scientific article should
be presented. Here you can find the most relevant aspects of
the sixth edition of the APA Standards Manual, such as
references, citations, preparation and presentation of tables
and figures, headings and seriation, among others.
 You can check how to implement them by going to
http://normasapa.com/

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the

mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
Plagiarism policy products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
without leading to disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
without leading to disciplinary measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric

Rubric evaluation format

Phase 2 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of the Unit 1
Type of
Individual activity X Collaborative activity X
activity
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit 1 X Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student Participation in the
The student participated in the effective
Individual participated actively forum, but his elaboration of the
student and effectively in the contributions are work is limited, so
participation elaboration of the fairly effective in the the achievement of 5
in the forum requested product. creation of the final the objectives is
product. inadequate.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points
Although the
The objectives of the
proposed theme is
work were
treated, the body of
Use of tree satisfactorily The document
the document does
criteria for fulfilled, the leaves unresolved
not adequately solve
processes that Exercises of Trees decision trees, so
the situation, the
require are solved correctly that optimality 12
conclusions are not
decision and the analysis of decisions are left
relevant according
making in the their results leads to unanswered.
to the results
exercise 1 an optimal decision-
obtained by the
making.
decision tree.
Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points
Although the
The objectives of the
proposed theme is
work were
Use criterions treated, the body of
satisfactorily The document
EPVI and the document does
fulfilled, by the leaves the EPVI
EPMI for not adequately solve
different EPVI and and EPMI criterions
processes that the situation, the
EPMI criterions were unresolved, so
require conclusions are not 13
solved correctly and efficiency decisions
decision relevant according
the analysis of their are left
making in the to the results
results led to unanswered.
exercises 2 obtained by the
optimal decision-
and 3 different EPVI and
making.
EPMI criterions.
Until 13 points Until 7 points Until 0 points
 Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
document presents a
The document basic structure, it
presents an lacks some elements The basic norms for
excellent structure, of the requested the construction of
all the exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of solved according to comply with the nonexistent like the
12
the Report the proposed norms for written criterions applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
criterions of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
criterions of the
course.

Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points

The practical
Although the use of
environment of the
The use of the the practical
course has been
practical environment in the
no longer
environment of the final report is
explored, for that
Use of the course is excellent, evident, the
reason the
practical the results and the solutions found by
evidence in the 8
learning analysis of these the application lack
use of the
environment are shown correctly analysis and
application to solve
in the final work conclusions
the Exercises
presented. pertinent to efficient
raised has been
decision making.
limited.
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
Final score 50