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ETC3530 Contingency
Dan Zhu
Semester 2, 2018
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Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
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Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Outline
1 Administrative Issues
2 Unit Overview
Overview of Life Insurance
Contingencies in a netshell
Types of policies
Life Product Notation
3 Death Benefits
While Life
Term Assurance on Death
Pure Endowment
Endowment Assurance
4 Annuities
Immediate Annuity
Immediate annuity due
Maximum-term immediate annuity
Minimum-term immediate annuity
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Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
where
ΩT is the support of the random variable T .
S(t) is the payment size at time t
v t = (1 + i)−t is the discount factor
P(t) is the probability or intensity of the random variable
T = t.
| Contingencies in a netshell
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
ΩT
| Contingencies in a netshell
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Definition
The life table is a device for calculating the actuarial functions
t px and t| qx . The key definition in a life table is the relationship:
| Contingencies in a netshell
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
v t and S(t)
v t = (1 + i)−t
| Contingencies in a netshell
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
| Types of policies
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
| Types of policies
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
| Types of policies
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
| Types of policies
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Tx is a continuous distribution
t pxis the probability of a person aged x now survive to
time t.
µx+t is the force of mortality at age x + t.
f T (t)
x
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
t
V Tx = (1 + i)−Tx or exp−δTx
Assumptions
Underlying assumptions behind the calculation of equation 1
are:
(a) a constant rate of interest
(b) a large number of independent lives
(c) correct probabilities of payments being made and rates of
interest
Definition
A benefit (known as the sum assured) paid to the policyholder
on death of the life assured.
The amount payable is known, but the timing is unknown at
issue
the present value of the benefit is not known
the PV of benefit is a random variable
we can calculate moments of the PV.
WL benefit
1 WL benefit: If 1 payable immediately on the death of (x),
then the PV of the benefit is
ν Tx .
2 WL benefit: 1 payable at end of year of death of (x)
Definition
Kx = bTx c
The complete number of years (x) lives and given a mortality
table with the probability function
and
2 Kx +1 ∞
X
2 Kx +1 2
Ax = E v =E v = v 2×(k+1) k | qx (3)
k=0
Remark
Evaluation of Ax and 2 Ax
Tabulated Tables
Example
For example, find out the EPV and StDev of PV of $100,000
payable at the end of the year of death of (50) using H2005
ultimate mortality table and 6% pa interest.
Term Assurance
Definition
A Term assurance Covers Temporary commitments
benefit payable on death within assured period only
no benefit on survival to end of term
$1 payable at end of year of death for a person aged (x) within
n years.
n−1
X
E[PV 2 ] = v 2(k+1) k| qx =2 A 1
x:n
k=0
2
2
Var (PV ) = A 1 − A1
x:n x:n
n−1
X ∞
X ∞
X
k+1 k+1
A1 = v k| qx = v k| qx − v k+1 k| qx
x:n
k=0 k=0 k=n
∞
X
= Ax − v k+1 k px qx+k
k=n
∞
X
= Ax − v n n px v k−n+1 k−n px+n · qx+n+k−n
k=n
X∞
= Ax − v n n px v r +1 r px+n · qx+n+r
r =0
∞
X
= Ax − v n n px v r +1 r | qx+n = Ax − v n n px Ax+n
Death Benefits | Term Assurance on Death r =0
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Example
Calculate the EPV and StDev of the PV of a term assurance
benefit of $100,000 payable at the end of the year of death of
(40), but only if death occurs within the next 10 years. Use
H2005 ultimate mortality and interest of 4.5% per annum
effective. Given that A40 = 0.271972, A50 = 0.384278, 2 A40 =
0.099773, 2 A50 = 0.181186 4.5%.
Solution
l50
A1 = A40 − 1.045−10 A50
40:10 l40
−10 903323
EPV = 100000 × 0.291972 − 1.045 0.384278
948141
= $3, 622
2 2 2 −20 903323 2
E[PV ] = 100000 A40 − 1.045 A50
948141
= 1010 × 0.02820
p
StDev (PV ) = 105 0.02820 − 0.036222 = $16, 397
Definition
A Pure Endowment benefit Covers Temporary commitments
benefit payable on survival at the end of the term only
no benefit on death over the period.
Basis: H2005 6% pa
l55
A 1 = 1.06−15
40:15 l40
861292
= 10000 × 1.06−15
= $3, 790.40
948141
861292
E[PV 2 ] = 108 × 1.06−30 = 0.15816 × 108
p 948141
StDev (PV ) = 104 0.15816 − 0.379042 = $1, 204
Endowment Assurance
Definition
Benefit payable on death of the life assured within the term of
the contract, or on survival of the life assured to the end of the
term of the contract
Pr[Kx = k] = k| qx , k = 0, 1, 2, . . .
Pr[Kx ≥ n] = n px
n−1
X
EPV = v k+1 k| qx + v n n px
k=0
2nd moment
n−1
X
E[PV 2 ] = v 2(k+1) k| qx + v 2n n px = 2 Ax:n
k=0
2
2
Var (PV ) = Ax:n − Ax:n
Let
X = V min(Kx +1,n)
Y = V Kx +1 IKx <n
Z = V n IKx ≥n
we have
X =Y +Z
hence
E[X ] = E[Y ] + E[Z ]
but
Var (X ) 6= Var (Y ) + Var (Z )
as Y and Z are correlated.
= 2 Ax:n − (Ax:n )2
Ax:n = A1 + v n n px
x:n
= Ax − v n n px Ax+n + v n n px
= Ax + v n n px (1 − Ax+n )
Example H2005 ultimate 6%:
l43
A40:3 = A40 + v 3 (1 − A43 )
l40
938596
= 0.19018 + 1.06−3 (1 − 0.21806) = 0.84010
948141
Death Benefits | Endowment Assurance
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Deferred assurances
Definition
a benefit of 1 paid at the end of year of death of (x) but only if
death occurs after n years
PV = V Kx +1 IKx ≥n
Its EPV
n| Ax == Ax − A 1 = v n n px Ax+n
x:n
its variance
∞
X
2 2(k+1)
n| Ax = k| qx v .
k=n
Annuities
Series of payments
often of an equal amount, but not always, eg CPI indexed
annuities
payable at regular intervals eg quarterly
may be payable
for a fixed term
while a person (annuitant) lives
temporary while annuitant lives
while annuitant lives, with minimum term
Annuities |
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Immediate annuity
Definition
A unit immediate annuity for life is $1 is payable at end of year
while (x) is alive.
1 − V Kx V − V Kx +1
PV = aKx = =
i d
and its
∞
X
EPV = E[aKx ] = ak k| qx = ax .
k=1
P∞
Evaluating k =0 ak k | qx
k px = k−1 px × (1 − qx+k−1 ),
then k| qx = k px × qx+k .
Then tabulate ak and multiply the two rows and add up the
answer.
∞
X
ax = ak k| qx
k=0
∞ ∞
X 1 − vk X v − v k+1
= qx = k| qx
i k| vi
k=0 k=0
∞ ∞
v X 1 X k+1
= q
k| x − v k| qx
vi vi
k=0 k=0
v − Ax
= .
d
Evaluating ax by recursion
∞
X ∞ X
X k ∞ X
X ∞
ax = ak k| qx = v j k| qx = v j k| qx (∗)
k=1 k=1 j=1 j=1 k=j
X∞ ∞
X X∞
= vj k| qx = v j j px
j=1 k=j j=1
Annuity variances
Definition
Benefit of 1 per annum in advance for life while (x) lives.
h i X∞
EPV = äx = E äKx +1 = äk+1 k| qx
k=0
∞ X
X k ∞ X
X ∞
= v j k| qx = v j k| qx
k =0 j=0 j=0 k=j
X∞
= v j j px
j=0
Evaluating äx
Premium conversion
1 − E v Kx +1
1 − v Kx +1
h i 1 − Ax
äx = E äKx +1 = E = =
d d d
Recursion
∞
X ∞
X ∞
X
j j
äx = v j px = 1 + v j px = 1 + vpx v j−1 j−1 px+1
j=0 j=1 j=1
Substituting t = j − 1, gives:
∞
X
äx = 1 + vpx v t t px+1 = 1 + vpx äx+1
t=0
Definition
A unit maximum-term immediate annuity is $1 payable at end of
year while (x) is alive for at most n years.
(
ak if Kx < n
PV = aMin(Kx ,n) =
an otherwise,
h i Xn−1 ∞
X
EPV = E aMin(Kx ,n) = ak k| qx + an k| qx
k=1 k=n
n−1 X
X k n−1
X n−1
X
= v j k| qx + n px an = vj
k| qx + n px an
k=1 j=1 j=1 k=j
n−1
X n−1
X
vj v j + n px v n
= j px − n px + n p x
j=1 j=1
n
X
= v j j px = ax:n
j=1
Definition
A unit Minimum-term immediate annuity is 1 payable at end of
year for at least n years and thereafter while (x) is alive.
(
an if Kx < n
PV = amax(Kx ,n) =
Kx otherwise
n−1
X ∞
X
EPV = k | qx an + k| qx ak
k=0 k=n
∞
X
n
= an (1 − n px ) + k| qx an + v ak−n
k=n
∞
X ∞
X
n
= an (1 − n px ) + an k| qx + n px k−n| qx+n v ak−n
k=n k=n
∞
X
= an (1 − n px ) + an n px + v n n px t| qx+n at
t=0
= an + v n n px ax+n
= ax:n
Definition
A unit Minimum-term immediate annuity due is 1 payable
annually in advance for a minimum of n years and thereafter
while (x) lives.
Example
consider an annuity of $10,000 per annum payable annually in
arrear while (50) is alive with a guaranteed minimum payment
period of 5 years. Using H2005 ultimate and 5% per annum
1 − 1.05−5
−5 861292
= 10000 × + 1.05 (12.262 − 1)
0.05 903323
= $127, 430
1 − v Kx +1
Kx +1
h i v
Var äKx +1 = Var = Var
d d
h i 2 A − (A )2
x x
v Kx +1 = PV (WL benefit) ⇒ Var äKx +1 =
d2
Annuities | Minimum-term immediate annuity
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
Deferred annuities
Definition
A benefit of 1 per annum paid while (x) is alive but after n
years; i.e. payments at n, n + 1, n + 2, . . . if (x) alive
Annuities |
= ä − ä
x
Minimum-term immediate x:n
annuity
= v n n px äx+n
Administrative Issues Unit Overview Death Benefits Annuities
P∞
We wish to show n| äx = k=n v k k px
∞
X
n| äx = v n äk−n+1 k| qx
k=n
X∞ −n
kX ∞ k−n
X X
= vn v j k| qx = v j+n k| qx
k=n j=0 k=n j=0
∞ X
X k ∞ X
X ∞ ∞
X
t t
= v k| qx = v k| qx = v t t px
k=n t=n t=n k=t t=n