Exercise 4F

1 a The probability AÈ B includes all cases where either event A or event B occurs. So sum the
probabilities for these three regions A Ç B¢, AÇ B and B Ç A¢ .
This gives P( A È B) = 0.3+ 0.12 + 0.28 = 0.7

b The probability that A occurs given that B occurs means that we are only selecting from those
situations where B occurs. So the sample space is restricted to just circle B. The denominator of
the fraction is 0.12 + 0.28 = 0.4. The numerator is when A also occurs i.e. when both A and B
occur, which is the region AÇ B .
0.12
Therefore P( A | B) = = 0.3
0.4

c The sample space is restricted to those instances where A has not occurred i.e. the regions B Ç A¢
or B¢ Ç A¢ . This means the denominator will be 0.28 + 0.3 = 0.58. The numerator will consist of
the cases where B has occurred i.e. B Ç A¢ .
0.28
Therefore P( B | A¢) = = 0.483 (3 s.f.)
0.58

d The sample space is restricted to those instances where A or B has occurred i.e. the region AÈ B .
From part a this has probability 0.7. The numerator will consist of the cases where B has occurred
i.e. either B Ç A¢ or B Ç A .
0.28 + 0.12 0.4
Therefore P( B | A È B) = = = 0.571 (3 s.f.)
0.7 0.7

2 a Fill in P(C Ç D) = 0.25 on the Venn diagram, and then calculate P(C Ç D ¢ ) = 0.8 - 0.25 = 0.55 ,
P(D Ç C ¢ ) = 0.4 - 0.25 = 0.15 and P(C È D )¢ = 1- 0.25 - 0.55 - 0.15 = 0.05

b i P(C È D) = 0.55 + 0.25 + 0.15 = 0.95

P(C Ç D) 0.25
ii P(C | D) = = = 0.625
P( D) 0.4

P( D Ç C ) 0.25
iii P( D | C ) = = = 0.3125
P(C ) 0.8

P( D¢ Ç C ¢) 0.05
iv P( D¢ | C ¢) = = = 0.25
P(C ¢) 0.15 + 0.05

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3 a Since S and T are independent, P(S ÇT ) = P(S) ´ P(T ) = 0.5 ´ 0.7 = 0.35 , and use this result to fill
in the Venn diagram.

b i This is calculated to complete the Venn diagram in part a, P(S Ç T ) = 0.35

P( S Ç T ) 0.35
ii P( S | T ) = = = 0.5
P(T ) 0.7

P(T Ç S ¢) 0.35
iii P(T | S ¢) = = = 0.7
P(S ¢) 0.5

P( S Ç (S ¢ È T ¢)) P(S Ç T ¢) 0.15

iv P( S | ( S ¢ È T ¢)) = = = = 0.231 (3 s.f.)
P( S ¢ È T ¢) 0.15 + 0.35 + 0.15 0.65

4 a First produce a Venn diagram with the numbers of people in each region.

The Venn diagram can now be used to find the required probabilities. From the diagram,
45 3
P( A Ç B¢ ) = = = 0.375
120 8

P( A Ç B) 120
20
20 2
b P( A | B) = = 50 = = = 0.4
P( B) 120 50 5

P( B Ç A¢) 30 6
c P( B | A¢) = = = = 0.545 (3 s.f.)
P( A¢) 55 11

P( A Ç ( A È B)) P( A) 65 13
d P( A | ( A È B)) = = = = = 0.684 (3 s.f.)
P( A È B) P( A È B) 95 19

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5 a Note that 12 cats like neither brand of food. So 80 – 12 = 68 cats like Feskers or Whilix or both.
Use this and the other information in the question to calculate P(F ÇW ) as follows:
P( F ÈW ) = P(F ) + P(W ) - P( F ÇW )
Þ P( F ÇW ) = P( F) + P(W ) - P( F ÈW )
45 32 68 9
So P( F ÇW ) = + - =
80 80 80 80
This is a Venn diagram showing the result:

P( F Ç W ) 9
9
b P( F | W ) = = 80
32
= = 0.281 (3 s.f.)
P(W ) 80 32

P( F Ç W ) 9
9 1
c P(W | F ) = = 80
45
= = = 0.2
P( F ) 80 45 5

P( F ¢ Ç W ¢) 12
12
d P(W ¢ | F ¢) = = 80
= = 0.343 (3 s.f.)
P( F ¢) 23+12
80 35

P( A Ç B) 0.2 + 0.1 0.3

6 a P( A | B) = = = = 0.6
P( B) 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.08 + 0.12 0.5

P(C Ç A¢) 0.1 + 0.08 0.18

b P(C | A¢) = = = = 0.4
P( A¢) 0.1 + 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.15 0.45

P( A Ç B Ç C ¢) 0.2 0.2
c P(( A Ç B) | C¢) = = = = 0.299 (3 s.f.)
P(C ¢) 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.12 + 0.15 0.67

P(C Ç ( A¢ È B¢)) 0.05 + 0.08 + 0.1 0.23

d P(C | ( A¢ È B¢)) = = = = 0.329 (3 s.f.)
P( A¢ È B¢) 0.2 + 0.05 + 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.1 + 0.15 0.7

7 a The fact that the student must watch at least one of the TV programmes means that the student is
selected from a region contained in A È B È C . Therefore this question should be interpreted as:
P(C Ç ( A È B È C )) P(C ) 299 9
P(C | ( A È B È C )) = = 23 = 23 = = 0.391 (3 s.f.)
P( A È B È C ) 29 29 23

The other way to do this is to note that only 23 students watch at least one of the TV programmes,
and of these 9 watch programme C.

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7 b The standard method is as follows:
P( A Ç B) + P( A Ç C) + P( B Ç C) - 3P( A Ç B Ç C )
P(exactly two programmes | A È B È C) =
P( A È B È C )
 2 0 1 0
 + + -3  3
=
29 29 29 29 
= = 0.130 (3 s.f.)
 23  23
 
 29 
An alternative method is to note that 2 + 1 = 3 students watch exactly two of the programmes (they
watch A and B, and B and C, respectively) and so 3 out of the 23 students that watch at least one of
the TV programmes watch exactly two of the programmes.

2 + 7 +1 10
c P( B) = = = 0.345 (3 s.f.)
29 29
P( B Ç C ) 291 1
P( B | C ) = = 9 = = 0.111 (3 s.f.)
P(C ) 29 9
So P(B) ¹ P(B | C) and the events are not independent.

8 a P( AÇ B) = 0 since A and B are mutually exclusive.

P(B Ç C) = P(B) ´ P(C) = 0.6 ´ 0.5 = 0.3 since B and C are independent.
P( B Ç C ¢ ) = P(B) - P(B Ç C) = 0.6 - 0.3 = 0.3
As P( AÇ B) = 0 , P( AÈ C) = 1- P( B Ç C ¢ ) - P( A¢ È B¢ È C ¢ ) = 1- 0.3- 0.1 = 0.6
P( AÈ C) = P( A) + P(C) - P( A Ç C)
Þ P( A Ç C) = P( A) + P(C) - P( AÈ C) = 0.2 + 0.5 - 0.6 = 0.1

Now it is straightforward to work out remaining regions for the Venn diagram
P( A Ç C ¢ ) = 0.2 - P( AÇ C) = 0.2 - 0.1 = 0.1
P(C Ç A¢ Ç B¢ ) = 0.5 - P( A Ç C) - P( B Ç C) = 0.5 - 0.1- 0.3 = 0.1

P( A Ç C ) 0.1
b i P( A | C ) = = = 0.2
P(C ) 0.5

P( B Ç C ¢) 0.3 0.3
ii P( B | C ¢) = = = = 0.6
P(C ¢) 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.1 0.5

P(C Ç ( A È B)) 0.1 + 0.3 0.4

iii P(C | ( A È B)) = = = = 0.5
P( A È B) 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.3 0.8

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9 a All of the people who have the illness test positive, which means that there are no people in A who
are not in AÇ B . There are also 10 people who test positive but do not have the illness. These
people lie in B but do not lie in A, i.e. they lie in B Ç A¢ . There are 100 – 10 – 5 = 85 people who
do not have the illness and do not test positive, so they lie in A¢ Ç B¢ . Therefore the Venn diagram
should show:

P( A Ç B) 0.05 1
b P( A | B) = = = = 0.333 (3 s.f.)
P( B) 0.15 3

c The test would allow the doctor to find all of the people who have the illness, but only one third of
those who tested positive would actually have the illness. This means that two thirds of the people
who were told they had the illness would actually not have it.

10 a Since P( A¢ Ç B¢ ) = 0.12 , this means that P( AÈ B) = 1- 0.12 = 0.88

Now find P( A Ç B)
P( A È B) = P( A) + P(B) - P( A Ç B)
Þ P( A Ç B) = P( A) + P(B) - P( A È B) = 0.6 + 0.7 - 0.88 = 0.42
This allows a Venn diagram of the probabilities of the two events to be produced, which can be
used to answer each part of the question.

P( B Ç A¢) 0.28 0.28

P( B | A¢) = = = = 0.7
P( A¢) 0.28 + 0.12 0.4

P( B Ç A) 0.42
b P( B | A) = = = 0.7
P( A) 0.6

c Since P( B | A) = P( B | A¢) = P( B) , the events A and B are independent.

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11 P( A | B) = P( B¢)
P( AÇ B)
Þ = P( B¢ ) = 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.3
P( B)
Þ P( AÇ B) = 0.3P( B)
Þ x = 0.3(x + y)
The probabilities must sum to 1, so 0.2 + x + y + 0.1 = 1Þ x + y = 0.7
Substituting for x + y gives
x = 0.3(0.7) = 0.21
y = 0.7 - x = 0.7 - 0.21 = 0.49

12 P( A | B) = P( A¢)
P( A Ç B)
Þ = P( A¢)
P( B )
c
Þ = d + 0.2 (1)
c+d
The probabilities must sum to 1, so
0.3 + c + d + 0.2 = 1 Þ c + d = 0.5 ( 2)
Substituting for c + d in the equation (1) gives
c
= d + 0.2 Þ c = 0.5d + 0.1 ( 3)
c+d
Substituting this equation for c in equation ( 2) gives
4
0.5d + 0.1 + d = 0.5 Þ 1.5d = 0.4 Þ d =
15
Finally, using equation ( 3) gives
4 4 1 4 3 7
c = 0.5 ´ + 0.1 = + = + =
15 30 10 30 30 30

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